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List of Tables & Charts 3

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World Diesel Engines

Industry Study with Forecasts for 2012 & 2017

Study #2470 | April 2009 | $5700 | 331 pages

The Freedonia Group 767 Beta Drive www.freedoniagroup.com Cleveland, OH • 44143-2326 • USA Toll Free US Tel: 800.927.5900 or +1 440.684.9600 Fax: +1 440.646.0484 E-mail: [email protected] Study #2470 April 2009 World Diesel Engines $5700 331 Pages Industry Study with Forecasts for 2012 & 2017

Table of Contents ...... 90 Incorporated...... 264 France...... 94 Daimler AG...... 271 Executive Summary Spain...... 98 Deere & Company...... 275 ...... 103 Delphi Corporation...... 276 Market EnvironmenT United Kingdom...... 106 Corporation...... 278 Belgium...... 110 DEUTZ AG...... 280 General...... 4 The Netherlands...... 114 Doosan Infracore...... 282 World Economic Outlook...... 5 ...... 118 Fiat SpA...... 283 Recent Economic Performance...... 5 Other Western Europe...... 122 Ford Motor...... 288 Macroeconomic Outlook...... 8 General Motors...... 290 World Fixed Investment Outlook...... 10 Motors...... 293 World Demographic Outlook...... 13 /PACIFIC Komatsu Limited...... 296 World Motor Vehicle Production Outlook...... 15 General...... 127 Corporation...... 298 World Machinery Outlook...... 18 Supply & Demand...... 129 MAN AG...... 300 World Agricultural Equipment Outlook...... 21 ...... 132 Heavy Industries...... 303 Competing & Related Technologies...... 24 ...... 136 Navistar International...... 306 Light Vehicles...... 24 South Korea ...... 141 Peugeot SA...... 310 Heavy Vehicles...... 27 ...... 146 Renault SA...... 312 Pricing Trends...... 28 ...... 149 Siemens AG...... 313 Environmental Regulations...... 29 ...... 153 Stanadyne Corporation...... 314 US Environmental Regulations ...... 31 Taiwan...... 157 Tognum AG...... 316 EU Environmental Regulations...... 33 ...... 161 Motor...... 318 Technological Trends...... 35 Other Asia/Pacific...... 165 Volkswagen AG...... 323 Emission Control...... 37 Volvo AB...... 325 Combustion Chamber Modifications...... 39 Company...... 329 Fuel Systems...... 40 OTHER REGIONS Turbochargers & Aftercoolers...... 42 Latin America...... 170 After-Treatment Emission ...... 174 Control Technologies...... 43 Argentina...... 179 List of Tables/Charts Fuel Technology...... 46 Other Latin America...... 183 Alternative Fuels Engine Technologies...... 48 Eastern Europe...... 187 ...... 192 SUPPLY & DEMAND Poland...... 196 Executive Summary Other Eastern Europe...... 200 1 Summary Table...... 3 General...... 52 Africa/Mideast...... 205 World Diesel Engine Markets...... 53 Turkey...... 209 Regional Markets...... 53 Iran...... 214 Market EnvironmenT Applications...... 55 South Africa...... 218 1 World Gross Domestic Product Motor Vehicles...... 57 Other Africa/Mideast...... 221 by Region...... 10 Off-Highway Equipment...... 59 2 World Gross Fixed Investment Stationary Equipment...... 60 by Region...... 13 Fixed Investment & Diesel INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 3 World Population by Region...... 15 Engine Demand...... 62 General...... 226 4 World Motor Vehicle World Diesel Engine Shipments...... 64 Industry Composition & Market Share...... 228 Production by Region...... 18 International Trade ...... 66 Product Development & Manufacturing...... 236 5 World Construction Equipment

Marketing & Distribution...... 238 Shipments by Region...... 21 NORTH AMERICA Marketing...... 238 6 World Agricultural Equipment Distribution...... 239 Shipments by Region...... 23 General...... 68 Mergers & Acquisitions ...... 240 Supply & Demand...... 69 Cooperative Agreements...... 243 United States...... 72 SUPPLY & DEMAND Canada...... 77 1 World Diesel Engine Demand by Region 55 ...... 80 Company Profiles 2 World Diesel Engine Demand Bosch (Robert) GmbH...... 255 by Application...... 56 WESTERN EUROPE Caterpillar Incorporated...... 257 Continental AG...... 262 (continued on next page) General...... 85 Supply & Demand...... 87

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List of Tables/Charts 13 United Kingdom - Diesel Engine OTHER REGIONS (continued from previous page) Supply & Demand...... 110 14 Belgium - Macroeconomic Indicators.. 112 1 Latin America - Macroeconomic Cht World Diesel Engine Demand 15 Belgium - Diesel Engine Indicators...... 171 by Application, 2007...... 57 Supply & Demand...... 114 2 Latin America - Diesel Engine 3 World Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine 16 The Netherlands - Macroeconomic Supply & Demand...... 174 Demand by Region...... 58 Indicators...... 116 3 Brazil - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 176 4 World Off-Highway Diesel Engine 17 The Netherlands - Diesel Engine 4 Brazil - Diesel Engine Demand by Region...... 60 Supply & Demand...... 118 Supply & Demand...... 179 5 World Stationary Diesel Engine 18 Sweden - Macroeconomic Indicators... 120 5 Argentina - Macroeconomic Indicators 181 Demand by Region...... 61 19 Sweden - Diesel Engine 6 Argentina - Diesel Engine Cht Relationship Between Per Capita Supply & Demand...... 122 Supply & Demand...... 183 Diesel Engine Demand & Per Capita 20 Other Western Europe - Macroeconomic 7 Other Latin America - Macroeconomic Fixed Investment, 2007...... 63 Indicators...... 124 Indicators...... 185 6 World Diesel Engine 21 Other Western Europe - Diesel Engine 8 Other Latin America - Diesel Engine Shipments by Region...... 65 Supply & Demand...... 126 Supply & Demand...... 187 7 Diesel Engine Net Exports by Region..... 67 9 Eastern Europe - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 189 ASIA/PACIFIC 10 Eastern Europe - Diesel Engine NORTH AMERICA 1 Asia/Pacific - Macroeconomic Supply & Demand...... 192 1 North America - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 129 11 Russia - Macroeconomic Indicators..... 194 Indicators...... 69 2 Asia/Pacific - Diesel Engine 12 Russia - Diesel Engine 2 North America - Diesel Engine Supply & Demand...... 132 Supply & Demand...... 196 Supply & Demand...... 72 3 Japan - Macroeconomic Indicators..... 134 13 Poland - Macroeconomic Indicators.... 198 3 United States - Macroeconomic 4 Japan - Diesel Engine 14 Poland - Diesel Engine Indicators...... 74 Supply & Demand...... 136 Supply & Demand...... 200 4 United States - Diesel Engine 5 China - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 138 15 Other Eastern Europe - Macroeconomic Supply & Demand...... 76 6 China - Diesel Engine Indicators...... 202 5 Canada - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 78 Supply & Demand...... 141 16 Other Eastern Europe - Diesel Engine 6 Canada - Diesel Engine 7 South Korea - Macroeconomic Supply & Demand...... 204 Supply & Demand...... 80 Indicators...... 143 17 Africa/Mideast - Macroeconomic 7 Mexico - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 82 8 South Korea - Diesel Engine Indicators...... 206 8 Mexico - Diesel Engine Supply & Demand...... 145 18 Africa/Mideast - Diesel Engine Supply & Demand...... 84 9 India - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 147 Supply & Demand...... 209 10 India - Diesel Engine 19 Turkey - Macroeconomic Indicators..... 211 20 Turkey - Diesel Engine WESTERN EUROPE Supply & Demand...... 149 11 Indonesia - Macroeconomic Supply & Demand ...... 213 1 Western Europe - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 151 21 Iran - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 215 Indicators...... 86 12 Indonesia - Diesel Engine 22 Iran - Diesel Engine Supply & Demand 217 2 Western Europe - Diesel Engine Supply & Demand...... 153 23 South Africa - Macroeconomic Supply & Demand...... 89 13 Thailand - Macroeconomic Indicators.. 155 Indicators...... 219 3 Penetration of Diesel Passenger Car Sales 14 Thailand - Diesel Engine 24 South Africa - Diesel Engine in Selected West European Markets.... 90 Supply & Demand...... 157 Supply & Demand...... 221 4 Germany - Macroeconomic Indicators.... 92 15 Taiwan - Macroeconomic Indicators.... 159 25 Other Africa/Mideast - Macroeconomic 5 Germany - Diesel Engine 16 Taiwan - Diesel Engine Indicators...... 223 Supply & Demand...... 94 Supply & Demand...... 161 26 Other Africa/Mideast - Diesel Engine 6 France - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 96 17 Australia - Macroeconomic Indicators. 163 Supply & Demand...... 225 7 France - Diesel Engine 18 Australia - Diesel Engine Supply & Demand...... 98 Supply & Demand...... 165 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 8 Spain - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 100 19 Other Asia/Pacific - Macroeconomic 9 Spain - Diesel Engine Indicators...... 167 1 Diesel Engine & Parts Sales for Supply & Demand...... 102 20 Other Asia/Pacific - Diesel Engine Selected Manufacturers, 2007...... 232 10 Italy - Macroeconomic Indicators...... 104 Supply & Demand...... 169 Cht World Diesel Engine 11 Italy - Diesel Engine Market Share, 2007...... 233 Supply & Demand...... 106 2 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures... 241 12 United Kingdom - Macroeconomic 3 Selected Cooperative Agreements...... 245 Indicators...... 108

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Despite a slower growth rate, substantial increases in demand occur in every segment of the world diesel engine market, with most new demand in the motor vehicle segment.

Global demand to expand Asia/Pacific World Diesel Engine Demand 3.5% yearly through 2012 37% ($153.3 billion, 2012) World diesel engine demand is forecast to expand 3.5 percent per year through 2012 to $153 billion. This represents a considerable deceleration from the growth posted during the 2002-2007 period, reflecting an expected slowdown Western Europe in motor vehicle and off-highway equip- 30% ment production and a moderation in metal prices. Despite the slower growth rate, substantial increases in demand will occur in every segment of the world North America diesel engine market, with most new 17% demand in the motor vehicle segment. Other Regions 16% Motor vehicle, stationary Auto photo: Škoda power types to lead gains Demand for diesel engines in the sta- tionary power segment is expected to Asia/Pacific region The diesel engine market in Western expand at the fastest annual rate, as in- Europe is projected to decelerate dustrialized nations transition to alterna- to remain largest market through 2012, due to weakness in the tive energy sources (stationary engines Between 2002 and 2007, growth in the production of motor vehicles and ma- used as backup generators) and devel- Asia/Pacific regional market was driven chinery. Some of the region’s largest oping countries continue to invest in their by rising demand for diesel engines in diesel engine markets, such as Germa- infrastructure (micropower generation). China, India, Indonesia and Thailand ny, France and Spain, are expected to Nonetheless, the stationary segment will where increased domestic production of experience restrained growth. In North continue to play only a small role in the motor vehicles, machinery and equip- America, growth will be driven by the global diesel engine market. Demand in ment encouraged demand. The Asia/ motor vehicle segment, which is set to the motor vehicle segment is forecast to Pacific market for diesel engines is benefit from higher levels of heavy grow 3.7 percent per year, accounting forecast to grow 4.0 percent annually vehicle output and the increased use of for a majority of new growth from 2007 through 2012, with China alone respon- diesel engines in light vehicle production. to 2012. The off-highway segment is sible for over 18 percent of total new From 2007 to 2012, demand for diesel expected to perform slightly below the global demand generated between 2007 engines in Eastern Europe and Latin market average as commodity and agri- and 2012. The largest absolute gains in America is expected to expand faster cultural prices retreat from their elevated the regional market will occur in the than the global average, yet each region 2007 levels, which will undermine de- heavy truck and bus segment, which will will still only account for about five to six mand for several key types of machinery total $26.7 billion in 2012. percent of aggregate demand. and equipment. Copyright 2009 The Freedonia Group, Inc.

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Sample Text, TABLE III-2 Table & Chart WORLD DIESEL ENGINE DEMAND BY APPLICATION (million dollars)

Item 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Gross Domestic Product (bil 2006$) 44280 51470 64110 78650 95650 % fixed invest 21.2 21.0 23.6 24.3 24.9

asia/pacific Gross Fixed Investment (bil 2006$) 9400 10810 15140 19150 23850

India: Supply & Demand Motor Vehicle Production (000 units) 55970 59740 73720 86300 97800 Diesel engine demand in India totaled $4.9 billion in 2007, expand - sample ing 12.5 percent per year since 2002. Factors directly related to the $ MV diesel/motor vehicle 785 990 1045 1070 1140 diesel engine market combined with broader economic trends to produce $ diesel/000$ fixed investment 7.2 9.0 ta8.5b le8.0 7.8 double-digit growth. From 2002 to 2007, India continued to industrialize, experiencing rising living standards and large inflows of foreign Dieselcapital. Engine & Parts Demand 67500 97100 129300 153300 185300 Rising production levels of motor vehicles and off-highway equipment, Motor Vehicles: 44000 59050 77000 92500 111300 combined with increasing domestic consumption of these finished goods, Light Vehicles 18800 26400 34450 40700 47300 drove demand for diesel engines. The most noteworthy gains occurred Heavy Trucks & Buses 25200 32650 42550 51800 64000 in the light vehicle and heavy truck and bus segments, both of which Off-Highway 20370 32660 44790 51320 62510 expanded over 18 percent per year. Increasing demand for diesel enginesStationary 3130 5390 7510 9480 11490 in these two segments coincided with a 20 percent per year increase in motor vehicle output. Although light vehicle diesel engine demand more than doubled from 2002 to 2007, the segment represented only eight percent of total demand in 2007. Production of agricultural, and construction equipment also surged during this period, pushing demand for related diesel engines to $2.7 billion.

Diesel engine demand in India is projected to increase 7.1 percent annually through 2012 to $6.9 billion. Relatively restrained growth in the large off-highway segment will resultsample in a more moderate rate of expansion for the entire diesel engine market. Nonetheless, the overall market will easily outpace both the regionalte andxt global averages for the 2007-2012 period. Sagging sales of machinery and equipment in India are expected to constrain production; as a result, the off-highway seg- ment will expand 3.0 percent per year through 2012. With its extensive potential for growth, the motor vehicle segment of the diesel engine CHART VIII-1 market is predicted to expand 11.9 percent per year through 2012 to $3.4 billion. Rising demand for heavy trucks and buses in the transport WORLD DIESEL ENGINE MARKET SHARE, 2007 industry will coincide with increasing sales of light vehicles; together, ($129.3 billion) the two segments will represent nearly half of total demand in 2012, up ten percent from 2007. Stationary diesel engines will continue to play a 9% Caterpillar 147 Copyright 2009 The Freedonia Group, Inc.

9% Volkswagen

Market 7% Peugeot Other sample Leaders 50% 50% 6% Renault chart 5% Cummins 5% Bosch 5% Isuzu 4% Daimler

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Sample Profile, TABLE VI-10 Table & Forecast INDIA - DIESEL ENGINE SUPPLY & DEMAND (million dollars)

Item 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Motor Vehicle Production (000 units) 735 895 2230 3540 5270 $ MV diesel/motor vehicle 785 940 870 960 945

Diesel Engine Demand 1420 2725 4915 6920 9430 Motor Vehicles: 576 842 1939 3400 4985 Light Vehicles 88 169 392 660 1015 Heavy Trucks & Buses 488 s673ample 1547 2740 3970 Off-Highway 798 1760 2703 3130 4000 Stationary 46 123ta b273le 390 445

COMPANY PROFILES + net exports -20 -40 -620 -930 -775

Renault SA Diesel Engine Shipments 1400 2685 4295 5990 8655 13-15 quai le Gallo Engines 670 1395 2700 3590 5150 92513 Boulogne-Billancourt cedex Parts 730 1290 1595 2400 3505 France 33-176-840404 http://www.renault.com

Revenues: $55.7 billion (2007) Geographic Revenues: (2007, as percent of total) France 32%, Euromed 11%, Other Europeansample Countries 43%, Other Asian and African Countries 7%, and Americas 8% Employment: 130,180 (2007)profile

Key Products: diesel engines and parts “Shipments of diesel engines and parts Renault is engaged in the production and distribution of auto- from India totaled $4.3 billion in 2007, mobiles, light commercial vehicles and trucks, and parts and acces- after growing 9.9 percent per annum sories. The Company operates in two segments: Automobile and Sales since 2002. Nonetheless, the country Financing. Additionally, Renault holds a 44-percent share of Motor Company Limited (Japan). still posted a net trade deficit of $620 million in 2007. With demand being Renault was the fourth largest manufacturer of diesel engines and projected to grow 7.1 percent per year parts in 2007, accounting for six percent of global sales. The Company through 2012, the net trade deficit is set is active in the world diesel engine industry through the Automobile segment, which had 2007 revenues of $52.9 billion. The segment pro- to reach $930 million in that year.” duces automobiles, light commercial vehicles and trucks, and parts and accessories, including diesel engines. Through the segment, Renault --Section VI, pg. 148 produces and sells DCI and D series engines for the RENAULT and DACIA vehicle lines. The DCI series includes models with power out- put ranging from 55 to 185 horsepower (hp) and in 1.5-, 2-, 2.2-, 2.5- and 3-liter (L) configurations. These engines are used in such models as TWINGO, CLIO, MODUS, KANGOO, LOGAN, MEGANE,

312 Copyright 2009 The Freedonia Group, Inc.

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