www.africa-confidential.com 13 June 2003 Vol 44 No 12 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 2 Kazini goes back to school Both sides lose A week of strikes shows that the opposition lacks a plan and that Major General has been removed from his job as army President needs brute force to survive commander and sent to study at ‘Let him take his medicine!’ South Africa’s Foreign Minister Nkosazana Zuma told fellow diplomats war college. His colleagues say after learning that opposition leader had been detained after a week of strikes against this has nothing to do with President Robert Mugabe’s government. Zuma fumed that Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic corruption claims, but donors are becoming increasingly impatient Change had pushed back prospects for serious negotiations with the Mugabe government by launching with Uganda’s refusal to face up to its mass action last week. Zuma is a close confidante of South African President Thabo Mbeki and her high-level misuse of public funds. outburst shows how little sympathy Pretoria has with either Tsvangirai or the MDC. Earlier Zuma had called the MDC’s stayaway campaign illegal, but the party had secured a judgment from ’s Supreme Court suspending a police ban on the stayaways. Evidently South Africa will not RWANDA 3 be urging Mugabe back to the negotiating table soon – as the MDC had wanted. John Prendergast of Finally, an election the International Crisis Group told Africa Confidential, ‘The longer South Africa and the United States wait on the diplomatic front, and the longer the US and European Union postpone more biting economic After nine years of transition, measures against those responsible for this crisis, the likelier we are to see state collapse in Zimbawe.’ President Paul Kagame looks set to win elections on the tailor-made MDC strategists claimed the stayaway action was to demonstrate the level of popular support for the terms set out in his new opposition and push Mugabe into serious talks. Both sides lost: talks are no nearer and neither is the constitution. His main challenger, government’s demise. Risks are growing on both sides. Attacks on the MDC are likely to be stepped former Prime Minister Faustin up but it is now clear that without its security blanket of armed police and soldiers, the Zimbabwe African Twagiramungu, has been abroad National Union-Patriotic Front government would have faced a massive demonstration in Harare, for eight years, and other candidates are likely to split the showing the rest of the world, particularly neighbouring countries, the depth of opposition to Mugabe. Hutu vote. The final push Hoping for that propaganda coup, the MDC called the week of action the ‘final push’ and raised ZAMBIA 5 expectations of Mugabe’s imminent departure. Government security made sure that it was not so. Tsvangirai himself was arrested and gaoled for alleged treason; on 6 June he was remanded in custody Sacking the veep by a Harare magistrate, and given leave to apply for bail at a higher court, if necessary to the Supreme President Levy Mwanawasa’s Court. The MDC’s Secretary General, , was arrested on similar charges three days sacking of his Vice-President, later. Few believe that the opposition leaders will be kept in gaol for long – perhaps to prevent them Finance Minister and Minister of Information has uncovered some becoming martyrs – but they will be tied up in slow litigation and tough bail conditions. dubious deals and fuelled battles The first two days of the intended week’s stayaway were fairly effective, as workers stayed at home to within the ruling party. gauge the climate on the streets. By mid-week several banks and businesses, threatened with the loss of their operating licences, were cautiously opening. But on Friday, businesses in Harare closed again, worried at the prospect of street demonstrations and violent clashes between MDC supporters and 6 government security forces. But the demonstrations failed to take off as police, soldiers, the ‘war Guebuza blues veterans’ and youth militias who are ZANU’s enforcers beat, arrested or threatened would-be demonstrators. Even opposition sympathisers, such as the privately owned Daily News, are now asking the MDC The final months of Joaquim awkward questions about strategy. A Daily News editorial argues that the stayaways will provoke more Chissano’s Presidency are bringing divisions in the ruling retribution against MDC supporters and more economic suffering, neither of which will help the Frelimo party to the fore. His likely opposition cause, and urges the party to produce a new strategy. Government strategy is at least successor, Armando Guebuza, is consistent: brutalise the opposition and keep paying the security forces, increasingly with allocations of far less consensual in style. ‘resettled’ land. It is banking some foreign currency earnings from the upcoming tobacco auctions at Guebuza may clean up the justice which the crops for sale will be much smaller than before but still significant for the cash-strapped system and help end impunity, but he may also make enemies. treasury. Much of the tobacco forex doesn’t enter officials channels and several senior ZANU officials build up their pensions by helping these illegal currency export schemes. But Mugabe’s latest ploy will push the economy even further downhill. After Western governments POINTERS 8 imposed ‘surgical sanctions’ targeted at the government, party officials and their business backers, the President ordered an investigation of foreign-owned companies. Some think this is the prelude to Liberia, Nigeria, nationalisation of all British- and US-owned firms. Industry Minister Francis Nhema told state radio Sudan & Congo- on Tuesday the government will take over six companies that closed their doors during the stayaway: Kinshasa operating licences will be cancelled; expatriate staff will have their work permits revoked and face deportation; and (according to the Minister) the firms will be given to ‘loyal, patriotic’ new owners. 13 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 12

Nhema said that eight other firms had given ‘reasonable excuse’ for not doing business as normal. The threatened firms and their nationalities It’s all in the family have not been identified. Their employees are anxious, as are their In June 1996 Major General Salim Saleh, Special Advisor to President governments in London and Washington. The West may retaliate first. on Military and Political Affairs in the north of Uganda, By August, the US Treasury will freeze the financial assets of was dispatched to Gulu, the north’s capital, to devise ways of ending the individuals and companies deemed by them to be supporting the ‘anti- insurgency by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) that has terrorised the democratic activities’ of the ZANU government. The list will include, region since 1987. He came back with a recommendation to Museveni and say senior US officials, John Arnold Bredenkamp and Thamer Al- Army Commander James Kazini that Mi-24 attack helicopters would Shanfari. Both men are already barred from the USA. An assets provide the necessary muscle. search has revealed that Bredenkamp owns a golf promotion company, Around that time, Saleh was introduced (via Kwame Ruyondo, an properties in Florida and other assets in the States. He has energetically employee of one of his companies) to Emmanuel Katto, a Ugandan and unsuccessfully petitioned the State Department to lift the travel director of Consolidated Sales Corporation (CSC), an off-shore company. ban. On 11 June, the MDC’s Secretary of Information and Publicity, Katto offered to sell eight Mi-24 helicopters for US$1.5 million each; Saleh , called on the EU to: ‘extend targeted sanctions recommended that this be put in writing to the President. It was an by imposing an assets freeze on all individuals and organisations guilty unbelievable bargain: these deadly machines usually fetch around $8 mn. of directly funding the illegitimate Mugabe regime.’ On 25 July 1996, Max Waterman of CSC, in a formal letter to the This will add to pressure on Whitehall to act on Bredenkamp, who President, promised that the machines would be ‘fully overhauled and in has a mansion in Berkshire and a house in London’s Belgravia. full flying order’. Museveni became visibly excited. Next day he promised Foreign Office sources claim they tried in vain to persuade the EU to the nation to finish the LRA insurgency once and for all by the end of the sanction Bredenkamp who has a Dutch passport and indefinite leave millennium. On 24 October Museveni directed Defence Minister Amama to remain in Britain but the US move may prompt another review. Mbabazi to ‘immediately acquire four helicopters and to handle the matter Bredenkamp has always maintained that Raceview and ACS (a BAE with utmost urgency’. On 5 November Mbabazi called a meeting of senior Systems agent in Southern Africa), the two military equipment military officials, which concluded in orders for an Air Force team to verify companies which have supplied the Zimbabwe Defence Force and in the existence and condition of the helicopters. which he has a beneficial interest, are run from Harare, and don’t affect On 5 December the team, headed by Deputy Air Force Director Colonel his British business. Fresh speculation followed Bredenkamp’s Joshua Masaba, visited the Belorussian supplier Beltspetsvneshtechnica omission this year from the London Sunday Times rich list, which had (BT). Masaba recommended that the government should hurry up and previously identified him as a dollar billionaire. Bredenkamp said he purchase the aircraft, fully overhauled and cheap at the price. He had no longer regards himself as British-based because the focus of his glanced over them; no mechanical inspection was carried out. business interests is now in Zimbabwe. A better question would be Saleh insisted that the deal must pass through the untested middleman how a dollar billionaire makes money out of Zimbabwe. CSC, who demanded 10 per cent commission – although the air force now had direct contact with BT, while CSC was merely a ‘special purpose UGANDA vehicle’ with no experience in arms dealing and no existing relationship to BT. Saleh said he wanted this ‘in the spirit of patriotism’, because Katto was Ugandan. No one questioned this. Later it appeared that both Saleh Kazini goes back to school and Ruyondo were offered inducements to buy from CSC. Katto offered Saleh $800,000, which he accepted. The sacking of a top general has nothing to do When the helicopters arrived on 1 March 1998, the government did not with allegations of his corruption, say the military have the money, and had to issue a bill of exchange at Uganda’s high commercial rate of interest. The aircraft had not after all been overhauled, Commander of the Ugandan People’s Defence Force Major General and expected accessories had not been delivered. The Ministry of Defence James Kazini was second only to President Yoweri Museveni in the was furious, and rejected delivery. CSC pointed out that, under the contract military hierarchy. So continuing allegations of corruption against which invoked the Arbitration Act, that the government would have to go him, first by the United Nations’ panel of experts investigating economic through an arbiter if an amicable settlement could not reached. The exploitation in Congo-Kinshasa and then by ’s official resulting lengthy dispute is estimated to have cost the government around Inquiry Commission, headed by British judge David Porter, should $7 mn. Donors have not publicly recorded their reaction. have flustered even Museveni’s un-embarrassable government. Not really, the soldiers say. Gen. Kazini was removed from the army Congo, Kazini had become Museveni’s most trusted general. It’s hard commander’s job and ‘redeployed’ to study at war college, and there to see why. Although the war against the ADF had some success, the are no plans to prosecute him in spite of numerous charges of wrong- UPDF’s operations in Congo have been disastrous. Thrice defeated in doing made by Porter’s commission. battle in Congo by their former allies in the Rwandan Defence Force Kazini’s sacking was due, according to his military colleagues, to and accused of grand corruption, the UPDF finally withdrew from his unpopularity. From his status as war hero in the guerrilla struggle eastern Congo last month after international pressure. UPDF tactics that brought Museveni to power two decades ago, Kazini had become of arming and training local militias backfired and stoked the war in an arrogant and overweight general who frequented Kampala nightspots eastern Congo, especially in Ituri province where some 50,000 have such as Club Obligato and Ange Mystique. He is also involved in the been killed in the past five years. Of all the Ugandan officers in Congo, building of a chain of hotels that would be difficult to finance on his it was Kazini who fancied himself most as Kampala’s pro-consul. modest official salary – and he sponsors Uganda’s soccer league Declining to answer allegations of corruption in Congo, Kazini champions, Sports Club Villa. refused even to appear before Porter’s Commission in Kampala. On Commanding the UPDF campaign against the rebel Allied the advice of his President, Kazini reluctantly testified before Porter Democratic Forces in western Uganda, and then UPDF operations in last year and was promptly accused by the judge of lying. Porter asked 2 13 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 12 him why he had disobeyed Museveni’s orders to distance himself from helicopters through Consolidated Sales Corporation (CSC), an offshore Congolese businesses, and Kazini fired back: ‘I do not contradict the broker [see Box], which lost the government an estimated $7 mn. President, I was only being flexible, Your Lordship.’ Justice Porter Ssebutinde’s report, published on 17 May, found that Museveni’s was unconvinced, concluding in his final report: ‘This officer has brother Gen. Salim Saleh, the Reserve Force Commander, agreed to shamed the name of Uganda and this Commission recommends accept $800,000 from Emmanual Katto, a Ugandan businessman, to disciplinary action against him be taken by the relevant authority.’ route the contract through CSC, instead of directly to the (cheaper) From Museveni’s viewpoint, Kazini’s sacking may amount to Belorussian supplier, Beltspetsvneshtechnica. The scores of other disciplinary action but there is no sign that the government will follow senior officials involved included the exiled dissident Colonel Kizza up Justice Porter’s other recommendations – that Kazini and Museveni’s Besigye, then Army Chief of Engineering and Logistics; also Permanent brother, Gen. Salim Saleh, face a full investigation of their business Secretary Dr Ben Mbonye, deputy Air Force Director Col. Joshua ventures in Congo. So graft in Uganda is shrouded in denial: Masaba, and the then Director of Commercial Banking at the Bank of government denies it is as serious a problem as its critics insist, and Uganda, Mrs Ketrah Tukuratiire. even when government acts against accused senior officials it denies We hear that Saleh claims in his defence that his ‘personal account’ that they are being punished for corruption. is used for off-budget purchases of military equipment that lenders and It was the same story on 12 May when President Yoweri Museveni donors would disapprove of if they appeared in the official accounts. inaugurated a consultative group meeting with western aid officials, This argument is known as the ‘Angolan defence’ in some quarters. co-chaired by the World Bank’s East Africa representative, Judy Although the other report by Justice Porter, released on 14 May, O’Connor, and Uganda’s Finance Minister, Gerald Ssendaula. implicated Gens. Kazini and Saleh in looting Congo’s resources, it Western diplomats and politicians set the ball rolling with praise for absolved the government of systematic exploitation. In particular it Uganda’s economic performance. Director General of Norway’s cleared Museveni and his son, Major . Maj. Foreign Affairs Ministry, Jorunn Maehlum, lauded its open markets Tom Butime, Minister of State for International Affairs, said that on and commitment to private sector growth; Ssendaula promised that only one charge (against Saleh) is there demonstrative proof of criminal more reforms were in the pipeline. Donors are helping to complete a behaviour – that Saleh registered his son, then aged seven, as a ghost railway to the Kenyan port of Mombasa. director of Air Alexander, a company alleged to have been involved in The lunch break gave Museveni time to bolt before the opening of exploiting Congo’s mineral wealth. the panel on anti-corruption and good governance. According to a recent donors’ analysis of the Ugandan Auditor General’s annual reports, around USh200 billion (about US$100 million) is misused or RWANDA disappears from public finances every year. So some 7.5 per cent of the Government of Uganda’s budget is lost annually to mismanagement or corruption. Finally, an election General Kagame is set to win easily against a Corrupt from the top down divided opposition in this year’s election Netherlands Ambassador Mathew Peters warned that such wastage was difficult to explain to taxpayers back home. He claimed that The democracy bandwagon – Rwandan style – rolls on. President Paul corruption culture permeates Ugandan government from the top down Kagame is determined to win a multi-party election on his own terms to local administrations, citing the Revenue Authority, the police and and will probably do it. He has rejected the no-party system of politics the judicial system as the worst. Prime Minister Apollo Nsibambi of his neighbour and former ally Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, rejected such charges and asked those who allege theft of public funds which many thought better suited to Rwanda’s ethnically-charged to provide evidence. The Minister for Ethics and Integrity, Miria history. Instead, Kagame and the ruling Front Patriotique Rwandais Matembe, tried to highlight the government’s attempts to tackle graft, (FPR) say they want competitive party politics, albeit with caveats and promised new institutions to improve ethics. including the right to proscribe parties for preaching ethnic hatred. Bent officials enjoy a culture of impunity. On the rare occasions that Kagame’s project faces three tests. Do Rwandans believe the ruling senior politicians and officials are identified as corrupt, few are FPR is tribe-blind? (Tutsi, who run the ruling FPR, form just under 15 prosecuted and many are just transferred to new jobs. Western per cent of the population; the politically quiescent Hutu make up officials want the government to suspend individuals identified by almost 85 per cent, while the remainder are the ultra-minority Twa.) corruption tribunals from public office until legal proceedings are Can Kagame convince Rwandans the elections are credible if the complete. They’re also worried about growing corruption when biggest opposition party, the pro-Hutu Mouvement Démocratique power is devolved to local authorities, leaving a third of the national Rwandais (MDR), is proscribed? And can he persuade Western states budget to be spent through procurement processes riddled with graft. to maintain the aid flows that have underpinned Rwanda’s economic The Teso Anti-Corruption Organisation, a local lobby group in eastern recovery since the 1994 genocide? Uganda, recently surveyed ten district tender boards, and found A year ago, it seemed that Kagame’s popularity with Western ‘unbelievable levels of corruption’, suggesting an average of 35 per politicians was fading and there were plans to cut aid unless Kagame cent of allocated funds are given out in backhanders. withdrew Rwandan troops from Congo-Kinshasa. At the end of 2002, Tackling corruption and staunching aid cuts is a priority for Uganda, Kigali announced that it had withdrawn all its troops from Congo and just under half of whose annual budget comes from foreign aid. most Western states accepted that – despite persistent reports of Threats of cuts could prompt the government to revive its earlier anti- clandestine Rwandan military operations in eastern Congo. And corruption fervour. Two reports from Ugandan judicial commissions Kagame has wooed some new friends in the West: United States last month will test its resolve. Both concern claims of corruption by President George W. Bush liked Kagame instinctively; and Britain’s government and army officers. An inquiry presided over by Justice new International Development Minister Baroness Valerie Amos will Julia Ssebutinde examined the purchase of two faulty Mi-24 maintain the strong support for Kigali of her predecessor, Clare Short.

3 13 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 12

Whitehall and Washington agree that Rwanda should not meddle in ‘identify itself with a race, an ethnic group, a tribe, a clan, a region, a Congo – at least not too overtly – but will leave domestic political sex, a religion, or any other element that could serve as a basis for arrangements largely to Kagame, in deference to their failure (along discrimination’. In practice this makes it impossible to criticise the with the other three permanent United Nations Security Council Tutsis’ leading role in the army and state institutions. Even without members) to act against the 1994 genocide. such a constitution, the FPR’s dominance would be difficult to Election calculations could still change. In Burundi where the overturn in just two months. ethnic arithmetic is the same, the June 1993 election victory of Hutu Opposition parties are allowed to hold meetings at national and leader Melchior Ndadaye and his Front pour la Démocratie au provincial level, but not at local level where the FPR is represented. Burundi (Frodebu) crystallised just a few months before the election. The constitution requires parties to ‘reflect national unity in the But Rwanda in 2003 is different on several counts. The genocide is recruitment of their supporters, the composition of their governing more recent, nine years ago rather than 21, and was more murderous bodies and in all their operations and activities’. The FPR-dominated (one million dead, compared to 200,000). Forum des Partis will have a powerful role in handing out party Unlike the ruling FPR, the Rwandan opposition lacks a powerful authorisations, and it will be difficult for a party to appear to be from party machine. Multi-party politics and freedom of speech in Rwanda one single ethnic group or region. are linked to upheaval in many people’s minds, while in Burundi ten years ago many believed competitive politics would save the country. The state of things to come That proved wrong: Ndadaye was overthrown and killed three months The constitution seems to have Kagame in mind. It gives wide powers after the election, and civil war has raged intermittently ever since. to the president, who is elected for a seven-year term and can run for However much they rail against comparisons with Burundi, Rwanda’s a subsequent second term. The president appoints the prime minister, FPR worry about precedents set by their southern neighbour. the president of the Supreme Court, the governor of the Central Bank, provincial prefects, security chiefs and senior police and army officers. Heavy handed Parliament will have 80 seats, with 53 members directly elected and Kagame’s political tactics resemble a rapid armoured column advance. the rest chosen by civil society organisations; but the majority party First the 26 May constitutional referendum was held and went the will not be permitted to hold more than half the seats in the cabinet. government’s way. Now Kagame and the FPR have started There will also be a Senate, with 30 members, elected every eight years campaigning for presidential and parliamentary elections expected in or co-opted. Its president, Rwanda’s second most important figure in late August. The divided opposition is unlikely to put up a serious protocol terms, the president of the Chamber of Deputies and the fight in so short a time. The presidential poll will be the first since president of the Republic, cannot come from the same party. 1988, when Juvénal Habyarimana was the sole candidate. All this aims apparently to prevent a return of ‘Hutu Power’ in the The referendum on a new constitution attracted an 87 per cent form of Habyarimana’s former party, the Mouvement Républicain turnout and a 93 per cent ‘yes’ vote. Even in Gitarama and Cyangugu, National pour la Démocratie et le Développement, the Coalition pour former strongholds of the pro-Hutu MDR, ‘no’ votes accounted for la Défense de la République (CDR) and the MDR’s Pawa wing, only 13 and 17 per cent respectively. Kigali saw the highest number Twagiramungu’s former rivals, who before the genocide supported of abstentions (19 per cent), chiefly because the regimes’s social peaceful cohabitation between Hutu and Tutsi. The Supreme Court is control is weaker there than in rural areas. Of those who voted in the expected to ban Pawa shortly, on the grounds that it has not renounced capital, 91 per cent voted ‘yes’. the ethnocentric ideology of its origins. Abstention was highest in Mutara province at 20 per cent. This was Kagame’s main challenger, former MDR leader Twagiramungu, due probably to the problems of reaching polling stations in rural, announced his candidacy in December 2002 but he may find himself mountainous areas whose Tutsi herder populations would be more somewhat isolated in August as an independent candidate without a likely to vote FPR than to have opposition sympathies. Outside party machine standing against the incumbent head of state. Prime Rwanda, some 68 per cent of registered electors voted. Many of those Minister Bernard Makuza, an MDR member, plans to form a new diaspora electors who abstained were Hutu exiles or Tutsi dissidents, party that will probably win support from the Forum and divide the but the fact that Kagame’s main challenger, former Prime Minister Hutu vote. A third candidate is Jean Népomucène Nayinzira, former Faustin Twagiramungu, voted at the Rwandan embassy in Belgium, president of the Parti Démocrate Centriste (PDC), a member of the lent the vote credibility. Forum. He too is more likely to divide the Hutu vote than to mount Few contest the vote’s validity, even those opposition figures who a serious challenge to Kagame. ascribe the overwhelming yes vote to social control, a tradition dating Twagiramungu must overcome two further obstacles. His exile in back to the monarchy and the pro-Hutu republics of Grégoire Belgium since the end of 1995 means he is out of touch with the Kayibanda (1959-1973) and Habyarimana (1973-1994). Rwanda’s grassroots and other exiled opposition parties have shown no sign of power structures form a perfect pyramid, from the provinces right up backing him. These include the Igihango coalition, which brings to the presidency. Soldiers demobilised from Habyarimana’s ex- together the Hutu and Tutsi monarchists of Nation-Imbanga Forces Armées Rwandaises (FAR), the Armée de Libération du y’Inyabutatu Nyarwanda, a faction of the Alliance pour la Renaissance Rwanda (ALIR) or Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda de la Nation (ARENA), as well as the FDLR led by Dr Ignace (FDLR), are closely watched by local committees when they return to Murwamashyaka, which draws support from Rwandan Hutu refugees their home village. Hutu politicians are deterred from opposition in Congo-Kinshasa and Rwandan soldiers who have fought alongside activism by the fear of investigation of their part in the genocide. the Forces Armées Congolaises since August 1998. The other wing The new constitution, ending the transition begun in 1994, offers the of ARENA, led by Alexandre Kimenyi, a professor at the University FPR’s challengers little room for manoeuvre. The constitution presents of Michigan, which broke away under the name Amahoro (peace), itself as a legal instrument for the prevention of another genocide, and claiming that the FDLR harboured génocidaires, is also not supporting makes it very difficult to change the government. It provides for a Twagiramungu. multi-party system, but no party may ‘threaten national unity’, or Other parties, including the Congrès Démocratique Africain of

4 13 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 12 former Prime Minister Dismas Nsengiyaremyé and the monarchist mentor is ex-President Kenneth Kaunda, who told the nation shortly Union Nationale Rwandaise of Jean-Claude Rukeba are yet to make before the 2001 presidential election that Mumba was among the best their position clear. Former President and FPR member Pasteur four of the eleven contenders; together, Kaunda and Mumba joined the Bizimungu remains in prison in Kigali. He was arrested in December official Zambian delegation to the funeral on 17 May of South 2001 with 20 of his supporters for founding a new political party, the Africa’s veteran hero-politician Walter Sisulu. Parti Démocratique pour le Renouveau, in contravention of a law he The ethnic slant is that President Mwanawasa (who is from the had introduced himself. minority Lamba and Lenje tribes) needs to win friends among the In theory, if the majority Hutus could agree among themselves to Bemba-speaking people of Northern Province, who say he wants to back Twagiramungu, he could win. But even if this happened, apart eliminate them politically. Things turned nasty when Mwanawasa, at from the constitutional provisions against Hutu domination, the FPR political meetings, made remarks to the effect that Bembas were would retain important posts in the army and civil and military stinking and dirty. intelligence. These include: General James Kabarebe, commander This became a hot issue and he claimed his remarks were of the former Armée Patriotique Rwandaise, now renamed the Forces misinterpreted. The arrest of three leading Bembas – ex-President de Défense de Rwanda; Colonel Patrick Karegeya, head of the Frederick Chiluba, ex-Foreign Minister Katele Kalumba and former External Security Office; and Col. Jacques Nziza, head of Defence intelligence chief Xavier Chungu – was seen as ethnically driven. Military Intelligence. Over 70 charges of corruption, abuse of office and theft of government Both Kagame’s supporters and critics assume he will win. The FPR property were made against Chungu and he is standing trial on many. is seen as a guarantee of stability by the mainly rural population, who – but Mumba is a political nonentity even among the Bemba. associate multi-party politics with disorder since their only experience of it is the period that immediately preceded the genocide. Even rural When is an election not an election? Hutus appear to prefer FPR-imposed order, which may not always be To be a vice-president, you have to be a member of parliament. The popular but allows them to go about their daily lives in peace. opposition parties’ petition to the High Court claims that Mumba’s Kagame is likely to be reelected by a mixture of support, especially appointment violates the constitution, which bars the president from from Tutsis but also from the people of Ruhengeri and Gisenyi nominating anyone as an MP who ‘was a candidate for election in the provinces where the army fields a ‘hearts and minds’ operation, last preceding general election or in any subsequent by-election’. The helping with the transport of wood and water. Kagame’s rule has also Court must now decide whether the term ‘general election’ includes a boosted the economy: despite low coffee prices, compensated for by presidential poll. the boom in tea, Rwanda has notched up average annual gross While the justices consider, the FDD and UPND have told their MPs domestic product growth of five per cent since the genocide – and to start impeachment proceedings against the President because of his insecurity since the end of 1998. ‘unconstitutional appointment’. To succeed, an impeachment motion Intimidation may be a factor. An ambiguous remark by Kagame in requires at least two-thirds of votes in parliament, which sits again Kinyarwanda at a recent rally in Byumba in the north alerted his next month. Legal Affairs Minister George Kunda (who is close to critics: ‘We have the means to grind every grain’. Kagame’s supporters Mwanawasa) says the motion will fail, since the disagreement is about say this should be taken at face value as he was talking to farmers who interpretation, not violation, of the constitution. The influential, had been asked to produce more sorghum and maize. His opponents privately owned Zambia Post newspaper has advised the opposition to note that the same word can mean ‘crush’ as well as ‘grind’. wait for the court ruling before proceeding with the impeachment. Mwanawasa must now win over some opposition heavyweights. ZAMBIA He seemed to have won the battle against the faction within the MMD that remained loyal to Chiluba. And he is losing control of the faction that seemed to be on his side – because he has not rewarded them with ministerial jobs. ‘MMD outsiders are the ones enjoying Mwanawasa’s Sacking the veep victory when they were not even there during the campaign,’ Frayed tempers and shoddy deals lie behind complained one MMD politician. The President explained that he had President Levy Mwanawasa’s political cull sacked Zimba (who was nominated to parliament), because he wanted to nominate someone qualified to take over the Finance Ministry. In an unexpected reshuffle on 28 May, President Levy Mwanawasa Kavindele is fighting back. Mwanawasa’s reasons for sacking him sacked Vice-President Enock Kavindele, long-time friend and Finance were ‘very petty’, he says. One of those reasons, listed in an eight- Minister Emmanuel Kasonde and Information Minister Newstead page letter, was the accusation that Kavindele had dubiously bought Zimba. Two main opposition parties, the Forum for Democracy and an island on Lake Itezi in Southern Province, where there are said to Development (FDD) and the United Party for National Development be emerald deposits. Mwanawasa also accused Kavindele of buying (UPND), promptly asked the High Court to declare one of the changes two aircraft from the Zambia Air Force (ZAF), in agreement with unconstitutional. The man who provoked them to action is Kavindele’s Works and Supply Minister Ludwig Sondashi (who has since been replacement, Nevers Mumba, a charismatic tele-evangelist who had cleared) and Sundie Kayumba, a former commander of the ZAF. quit his own party just one day beforehand. Another accusation was that the Vice-President had used equipment Mumba’s televised Pentecostal crusades for ‘healing the sick, from the Zambia National Service (which gives school-leavers military disabled and blind’ boasted the Victory Ministries’ slogan of ‘Zambia and agricultural training) to dig dams at his private farm, then failed Shall Be Saved’. Believing he could turn his many followers into to settle the bill of about 200 million kwacha (US$41,800). ‘All of voters, he founded the National Citizens’ Coalition (NCC), ran as its these reasons are petty because they are not true’, said Kavindele. He candidate in the 2001 presidential election and flopped with only 2.2 admitted having applied to buy an island but said the Zambia Wildlife per cent of the vote, whereupon his party dissolved into the governing Authority, which manages national parks, rejected his application. Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD). Mumba’s political Mwanawasa’s letter to Kavindele also dealt with the current

5 13 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 12

constitutional review. An influential group called Oasis Forum, an alliance with the MMD and Mwanawasa, who has appointed Rose which includes church groups, the Law Association of Zambia and Banda as Minister in the Office of the Vice-President; another UNIP other civic organisations, wants the new constitution to be adopted by MP, Chile Nguni, already serves as Deputy Labour Minister. an eventual constituent assembly. Kavindele says that he advised The UPND has also pulled out of the opposition alliance, blaming Mwanawasa to settle amicably with these critics; instead, the President the other parties for not working together, so the alliance’s only has appointed a 41-person Constitutional Review Commission whose members are the FDD and the moribund Zambia Republican Party. report will be subject to cabinet approval or rejection. Kavindele, who One opposition party which is making an impact is Michael Sata’s accused Mwanawasa of refusing to take advice from his ministers, Patriotic Front; Sata says the rest of the opposition should join him, also argued that the CRC would be expensive, as each member would because nobody else is serious about becoming president. Disgruntled be paid $200 per session and the process would last a year. MMD members join him almost every day; the PF, widely seen as a In response, Mwanawasa released the full text of the dismissal Bemba party, could spring a surprise if elections are called. letter, plus various other documents. The allegations against Kavindele It is widely suspected that Chiluba is using Sata as a front and seem serious and damaging – especially the account, upon which he funding his party, although Chiluba’s favoured presidential candidate has not commented, of a deal he and Kasonde made with a local would probably be the incarcerated former Foreign Minister, Kalumba. company called Sable Transport Limited to supply 40,000 tonnes of Opposition unity will be tested next month at a parliamentary by- maize. The transaction was never discussed in cabinet or with election in Bemba country, at Mwansabombwe, Northern Province. Agriculture Minister Mundia Sikatana, the government would have Sata’s PF has indicated that it will back an FDD candidate; UNIP and paid more than $2 mn. when the country had enough grain. the UPND plan to go it alone. The result may show whether the notion A further accusation was that Kavindele had secretly received of Mwanawasa being anti-Bemba has taken root. about K510 mn. ($106,800) in ‘bribes’ from a South African company, Trans-Saharan Trading (TST), a subsidiary of Canada’s DiamondWorks; this may have been a donation to the MMD, to which MOZAMBIQUE Kavindele failed to declare the full amount. Mwanawasa said in his letter it was wrong for Kavindele to accept money ‘with strings attached’ from a company that had just been awarded a government Guebuza blues contract to supply crude oil; Kavindele negotiated the deal and claims Mwanawasa introduced him to the company. Its failure to deliver the The prospect of a new president is forcing right crude triggered an acute diesel shortage and Mwanawasa abruptly Frelimo’s divisions to the surface cancelled the contract. With the December 2004 elections now in sight and President Joaquim Chissano stepping down after 18 years in power, the long-running Private sector donations battle for power in the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique Kavindele’s son (another Enock) has worked closely with TST. The (Frelimo) party is rising to the forefront. The party’s candidate in the ZAF had complained to the President that Enock junior and TST next election, and essentially Mozambique’s president-in-waiting, is officials had been landing a private jet at Lusaka International Airport veteran politician Armando Guebuza, who is now on the verge of at night, without clearance. On 19 May, TST Chairman Tony fulfilling his life’s ambition to lead party and country. As he prepares Teixeira wrote to Mwanawasa defending his company’s donation: to take charge, the balance in Frelimo is shifting to Guebuza and those ‘My group has business interests the world over and only in Zambia he perceives as his allies. Chissano, with 18 months left in his is a donation from the private sector viewed as a corrupt practice. I mandate, is looking like a lame duck president. Those who owe their wish to apologise to you if the gesture was in any way seen to positions to Chissano are vulnerable, while Guebuza, a skilful political compromise your party and indeed your Excellency’s high office’. manipulator who forgets and forgives little, is already assembling his Further, Teixeira made accusations against a rival oil supplier, team. The fight is out in the open, with sniping against Chissano and Total International (a subsidiary of France’s Total) which owns half his family from the pro-Guebuza Domingo newspaper while pro- of Zambia’s sole refinery company, Indeni. He accused Total’s Chissano articles and letters to the editor – often under fictitious names representative, Momar Nguer, of working closely with Chiluba to – have appeared in the government-aligned Notícias. embarrass Mwanawasa’s government over the fuel shortage. The Guebuza camp has been pressing for a cabinet reshuffle to put Kavindele, as Vice-President of the MMD, hopes to make trouble in place the team it wants to fight the election. Chissano has steadfastly for Mwanawasa within the party. When Chiluba resigned as party refused, but may have to name a new premier. Prime Minister Pascoal president last year, Kavindele declined that post to make room for Mocumbi, a solid Chissano ally, has already signalled that he will Mwanawasa. He now says: ‘I have reclaimed my position and leave government after the next election and, demoralised by failing to Mwanawasa should revert to his position of national trustee’. Kavindele win the leadership of the UN World Health Organisation earlier this also claimed to have reinstated eight senior party officials, including year, may resign sooner. Possible successors include Finance Minister Chairperson Chitalu Sampa, Treasurer Peter Machungwa, ex- Luisa Diogo, regarded as close to Guebuza, or her predecessor, now Foreign Minister Katele Kalumba, ex-Works and Supply Minister Transport Minister, Tomas Salomão, a Chissano man. Other wild Godden Mandandi and Desmus Kalingeme. All were recently cards include the party stalwart and former presidential economic suspended for remaining loyal to Chiluba; Kavindele’s plan to regroup advisor Eneas Comiche, or even Foreign Minister Leonardo Simão. with them angered many party officials. Some staged protest marches There is little love lost between Chissano and Guebuza, and the and the MMD Executive is expected to discipline Kavindele. latter’s selection as presidential candidate at Frelimo’s eighth party The internal quarrels of the party in power have not helped the congress in June 2002 was a blow to the Chissanoistas who would have opposition, which has neither formed a united front nor agreed to field preferred a younger, more moderate figure (AC Vol 43 No 13). The a single presidential candidate in future elections. Kaunda’s former choice of Guebuza is a triumph of the old guard over Chissano’s single ruling party, the United National Independence Party, has made remote and technocratic government. Although the past decade has 6 13 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 12

or the foreign investor simply gives him a stake in recognition of his Who loses under Guebuza political standing. Helder Muteia: the Minister of Agriculture. A Young Turk reformer, he naively accepted the mantle of the Chissano camp in the leadership New, tougher Frelimo contest where Guebuza decisively beat him. Aware that he has little future A Guebuza presidency will mean a radical change in the style of under Guebuza, he is keeping a low profile, even among the civil servants government. Chissano will be remembered for his collegial rule, in a ministry that he had vowed to shake up. cultivating consensus in the party, promoting reconciliation with Nhimpine Chissano: the president’s controversial businessman son is Renamo and in society at large, and ‘listening’ to foreign donors. But accused of ordering, or being complicit in, the murders of the country’s this has been reviled by many in Frelimo, who believe that Chissano, most famous journalist, Carlos Cardoso, and the central banker, Antonio whose party nickname is the feminine Marisé, has failed to establish Siba-Siba, both of whom were investigating a banking fraud that Chissano his authority. Almost no one has been fired from cabinet under fils has been implicated in (AC Vol 43 No 25). Having drawn the party Chissano, regardless of the corruption that has thrived in recent years. into disrepute, Nhimpine can expect little protection from Guebuza, Guebuza’s style will be different. With a strong grip on the party, although he may still escape trial, already having had to undergo the he will make the government more decisive and coherent. Sceptical humiliation of giving evidence in the Cardoso trial where he was named foreign donors concede that he can get things done, and may clean up as the paymaster by several of the accused. the paralysed justice system which has allowed criminal impunity – Almerinho Manhenje: the Interior Minister has been heavily damaged much of it from Frelimo – to thrive. But his vision of the country is by the Nhimpine scandal where he is alleged to have obstructed evidence, moulded by belief in the hegemony of the Frelimo party and its dismissed prosecutors who were pursuing charges in the Cardoso trial and historical right to rule. This leaves little room for other forces, helping witnesses escape. Unprecedentedly, open calls have been made particularly the restive opposition party Renamo, who under Guebuza for his resignation in pro-Frelimo newspapers. will be left in no doubt about Frelimo’s authority. As the government’s Leonardo Simão: the Foreign Minister’s main crime is that he is a chief negotiator in the talks that ended the civil war in 1992, Guebuza Chissano ally. He may survive into the next cabinet but in a more junior has a better understanding of – but not sympathy for – Renamo than position. He was previously seen as a rising star with upward mobility; most Frelimo politicians. the country’s last two foreign ministers have gone on to be prime minister. Is Guebuza an electoral asset or liability? Although he can motivate the regime’s core supporters and is building a formidable election seen double-digit growth, macroeconomic stability, foreign investment campaign, ultimately he is not a vote winner. There is popular and massive increases in social sector spending, many in the party frustration and disenchantment with Frelimo venality: after winning lament the passage of the command and control economy in which narrowly in 1999, it is vulnerable in the next election. It’s hard to Frelimo’s apparatchiks held the levers of economic power. believe that Frelimo would accept defeat, so the issue is whether it needs to cheat to win. With a strong national structure, access to Going so soon? private and state money, Frelimo has huge advantages over the Chissano’s weakness stems from his early declaration, in 2001, that he shambolic Renamo which lacks a basic party administration. would leave office in 2004. The constitution allows the president to Frelimo may also be helped by Renamo heir apparent, Raul be re-elected twice, and Chissano could have stood for a third elected Domingos who is setting up a party to challenge Mozambique’s term since multi-party democracy was first introduced in 1994. He current two-party system. Expelled from Renamo in late 2000 when first took power in 1986 after the country’s still revered first President president Afonso Dhlakama felt threatened, Domingos now heads a Samora Machel died in a plane crash. This was also the period when group of five former Renamo parliamentarians as well as an influential Guebuza was cast into the political wilderness, distrusted by President thinktank, the Instituto Democrático para a Paz e o Desenvolvimento Machel for his authoritarian tendencies, and marginalised by Chissano (IPADE). Domingos’s party is expected to include dissidents from who wished to project a moderate face after the party’s abuses and both Renamo and Frelimo, although Domingos declines to name divisions during the civil war. He was left out of the cabinet in 1994 them. As a Sena from Sofala province, one of the core ethnic groups but appointed to lead the party in parliament, from where he consolidated that make up Renamo’s support base, Domingos could potentially be his hold, playing Stalin to Chissano’s Trotsky and Machel’s Lenin. a very serious force, splitting the Renamo vote and delivering victory Many are uneasy about the coming change of leadership. Although to the government. popular in the party, Guebuza is a divisive figure remembered for human rights abuses while in government, including ‘Operation Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at Production’ when people were rounded up off the streets of Maputo 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. and sent to work camps in the remote Niassa province. Many perished Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. there or joined the Resistência Nacional de Moçambique (Renamo) Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk rebels. As a Ronga from Maputo province he has little support outside and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa the regime’s power bases in the south. Confidential in advance: Attempts to portray him as a northerner from Nampula province – Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 he spent some time there as a child – have fallen flat. Questions have Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 been asked about how Guebuza has become one of the country’s Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 richest men, with a business empire and interests in dozens of different All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept companies. In keeping with Mozambique’s home-grown empowerment American Express, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. model (aimed at promoting a Frelimo business class), Guebuza does Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 1354, 9600 not manage these companies and has not paid much, in many cases Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2XG England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 nothing, for their assets. Often he holds equity stakes in joint ventures Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. with foreign business, paying for his portion from dividend payments, ISSN 0044-6483

7 13 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 12

pessimistic. Foreign and Commonwealth Office Pointers NIGERIA mediators have converted their June deadline for a peace accord into ‘a few months’ time’. Other major sticking points are wealth and power LIBERIA Leaky and unlucky distribution. The oil is almost entirely in the Revelations by Royal Dutch/Shell that thefts of South. Garang told his audience the NIF had Where next? crude oil from its operations in the Niger Delta offered the South five per cent of oil wealth, then could amount to as much as 100,000 barrels a day moved to 10 per cent. ‘We offer them 40 per The Sierra Leone Special Court’s indictment of have been followed by threats of a tougher security cent!’ he declared. On power-sharing, the SPLA/ President Charles Taylor leaves him little option response both from the Nigerian and the United M wants 40 per cent of the cabinet and more than but to fight to the death, potentially taking the States government which increased military aid the token ministries Southerners have held for thousands of Liberians who have crammed into to President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government decades. Garang was emphatic on the totalitarian Monrovia with him. The timing of the 4 June after 1999. Other oil companies – such as the and ideological nature of the NIF – and the power announcement was unfortunate. With the rebel USA’s ChevronTexaco and France’s Total – are of its parallel security agencies. ‘An Arab Islamic Liberians United for Reconciliation and also hit by organised thefts which account for state is in force and it is enforced by force!’ Democracy (LURD) at the gates of Monrovia, more than five per cent of Nigerian production. But should Sharia criminal law reign in the West African leaders hoped the Ghana peace Obasanjo told a closed meeting of Nigerian capital, as the NIF insists? The SPLA and talks would persuade Taylor to step down. But editors last month that the Nigerian army and navy Mohamed Osman el Mirghani and El Sadig el they were not prepared to arrest Taylor, and flew would go in hard to stop the ‘bunkering’ – the Mahdi, leaders of the two biggest Northern parties, him back to Monrovia in President John Agyekum Nigerian term for these sophisticated sea-borne the Democratic Unionist Party and Umma, neatly Kufuor’s presidential Fokker 28. Officials were thefts. The operations use sea-going vessels and wrongfooted the NIF on 24 May: their Cairo indignant at what they felt was an attempt to the thieves ‘hot-tap’ the oil pipelines, which allows Declaration called for a capital ‘which is national pressure them into handing over their guest when them to siphon off oil without the line being de- and treats all religions and beliefs as equal’. they hadn’t been involved in the planning. pressurised and alerting its owners. Shell officials The United States seemed strangely absent as told Bloomberg news agency that some of the CONGO-KINSHASA French troops evacuated foreigners from stolen oil had been tracked to Rotterdam. Monrovia. Britain’s UN Ambassador Jeremy Efforts to stop the trade may be stymied by Greenstock called on Taylor to quit, but Liberia’s continuing corrupt links between senior military Battle for Bunia oldest and most ambivalent ally was busy behind and local politicians which cut across Nigeria’s Quarrelling over posts in a power-sharing the scenes. In the turmoil that followed the Special ‘informal’ oil sector. US concerns about the government, pitting Kinshasa’s proxies against Court announcement, the US Monrovia Embassy security of Nigeria’s oil sector are growing too. In those of Rwanda, reflects a similar struggle in advised Vice-President Moses Blah to take over. addition to US General James Jones’ plans to to eastern Congo where Kinshasa and Rwanda back Taylor accused him of plotting a coup and send a carrier battle group (with 12,000 personnel) rival militias. In both cases, civil society and non- ‘accepted his resignation’. Guinea, too, seems to to patrol the West African seaboard (AC Vol 44 armed opposition are being squeezed out. have been given the go-ahead to increase its support No 11), Department of Defense officials The Comité International d’Accompagnement for the rebels, enabling them to enter Monrovia. announced plans to reduce its 70,000 troops in à la Transition, which comprises ambassadors Two senior US officials visited Accra in the Germany, sending some to the oil-rich Caspian from the five permanent UN Security Council week before the peace talks and met Foreign Sea and some 5,000-6,000 to West Africa’s oil members plus Belgium, Canada and South Minister Nana Akufo-Addo, Pentagon General seaboard. Although the deployment would focus Africa, ordered the negotiating parties on 5 June Charles F. Wald, who promised US$4 million on Nigeria’s oil zones, the US base could be in a to speed up the talks. Installation of four new extra for Ghana’s contribution to West African neighbouring state. US officials confirmed they Vice-Presidents scheduled for 28 May was peacekeeping forces in Côte d’Ivoire and Sierra had looked at Senegal, Ghana and Mali. postponed indefinitely because the Kinshasa Leone, and Pamela E. Bridgewater from the government, Mouvement de Libération and State Department. Taylor left Lewis Browne and SUDAN Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie- John T. Richardson at Akosombo, but talks were Goma cannot agree on the composition and control put on hold while a ceasefire was negotiated. of a new national army. Taylor has few options. He has offered to step Sticking points UN officials hope a deal on the army, which down at the end of his term of office, which should ‘I will not be absorbed for the second time in my would trigger military aid and training from the expire in August, though he has scheduled elections life!’ John Garang told parliamentarians and aid European Union, would ease pressure on the UN’s for 14 October and had said he would hand over workers in Britain’s Portcullis House on 3 June. own peacekeeping operation. But the deployment power on 6 January. His opponents agree only The Sudan People’s Liberation Army boss was of French troops as the advance guard of a 1,400- that Taylor cannot be trusted, and the international referring to the absorption of Anya Nya rebels into strong rapid reaction force to stem fighting in community’s first problem is whom to back. the government army under the 1972 Addis Ababa Bunia drew local criticism, while the EU accuses If Taylor leaves Liberia, he has few friends who agreement that ended the first, 17-year war. France of having no political plan to shore up the could resist international pressure for his arrest. Colonel Garang insists on keeping his army as the operation and no viable exit strategy. The worst scenario would be for him to return to major defence against the National Islamic Front This coincides with worsening fighting in Kivu- the bush and resume his career as a militia leader. dismantling a Machakos agreement as ex-President Nord where RCD-Goma forces appear to be Preoccupied elsewhere, the international Ja’afar Nimeiri dismantled Addis Ababa. heading for Beni to attack Mbusa Nyamwisi’s community would oversee installation of a new This bodes ill for the negotiations. Even some RCD-ML and government troops. With Bunia government in Monrovia, but could then leave the participants say little or no progress is being still out of control and a new war in Kivu exploding, region’s array of armed groups to fight on. made. Senior SPLA sources are privately the negotiators in Kinshasa look irrelevant.

8