LETTER

Statistics show no evidence of gender bias in the public’s hurricane preparedness

Jung et al. (1) make the bold claim that deaths raises the average death toll for all Setting aside the issue of outliers, what astorm’s assigned gender (traditionally mas- female storms by 85%, to 23.5 (n = 63 deaths; aretheoddsthatthesixdeadliesthurri- culine vs. feminine name) predicts its de- maximum, 256 deaths). Hurricanes Diane canes of the study period would all bear structive potential, such that a hypothetical (1955), Camille (1969), Agnes (1972), and feminine names? Hurricane Eloise would have three times Sandy (2012) collectively accounted for 732, If all of the names had been assigned the expected death toll compared with a hy- or 38.5%, of 1,900 total deaths in the study. randomly or alternately, the correct answer pothetical , by 41 deaths to Virtually all of the statistical difference would be 1 in 26, or about 1.6%. 15 deaths. They say that feminine names and between the deadliness of female vs. male However, four of the six storms occurred pronouns are perceived by the public to be storms is explained by the inclusion of during a period (1953–1978) when only fe- less threatening, resulting in lax preparations these four events. male names were assigned. Only Katrina and and fewer evacuations. Their conclusion was Surprisingly, of those 732 deaths, at least Sandy had a chance to be “male.” The chance widely reported in the popular press. 327 (45%) occurred well inland, mostly due that two randomly chosen hurricanes would During 30+ years on the Gulf Coast, my to flooding and landslides in the mountain both have female names is 1 in 22,or25%: hurricane evacuations show no gender bias valleys of the Appalachians as the largely that’s not bias, it’s a coincidence, and not (Andrew, Lili, Rita, and Gustav). I am skep- spent storms dropped torrential rains. Diane’s astrongoneatthat. tical that sexism explains the noted effect. deluge hit a region already rain soaked from 1 Ninety-four hurricanes made landfall in a mere 5 d before. An es- Steve Maley the during the study period timated 101 of her 184 deaths occurred in Badger Oil Corporation, Operations from 1950 to 2012; Hurricanes Audrey . Nearly half of Camille’sdeadly Directorate, Lafayette, LA 70503 (1957) and Katrina (2005) were excluded as toll (113 of 256) struck western . outliers. As the authors correctly observe, Agnes made landfall in the panhandle there is “...no effect of masculinity-femininity as a weak hurricane, killing nine people. Con- 1 Jung K, Shavitt S, Viswanathan M, Hilbe JM (2014) Female ” hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA of name for less severe storms. Among the tinuingtothenortheast,herrainsdevastated 111(24):8782–8787. less severe storms (all with <100 deaths), the Eastern Seaboard, causing 113 additional 2 National Hurricane Center (2012) Hurricanes in History. Available at those with male names averaged more deaths deaths, including 50 in Pennsylvania (2). www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history. Accessed August 13, 2014. (mean, 14.5 deaths; n = 29; range, 0–84 If one considers that there are six, not two, deaths) than those with female names (mean, outliers in this population, the statistical Author contributions: S.M. analyzed data and wrote the paper. 12.7 deaths; n = 59; range, 0–75 deaths). In- differencebetweenthemaleandfemale The author declares no conflict of interest. clusionoffourstormswithmorethan100 subsets becomes negligible. 1Email: [email protected].

E3834 | PNAS | September 16, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 37 www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1413079111 Downloaded by guest on September 26, 2021