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Alpine'&'Subalpine'Habitats' Climate(Change(Vulnerability(Assessment(Synthesis(for(Hawai‘i(((
An(Important(Note(About(this(Document:(This%document%represents%an%initial%evaluation%of%vulnerability% for%alpine%and%subalpine%habitats%on%the%island%of%Hawai‘i%based%on%expert%input%and%existing%information.% Specifically,%the%information%presented%below%comprises%vulnerability%factors%selected%and%scored%by% habitat%experts,1%relevant%references%from%the%literature,%and%peer>review%comments%and%revisions%(see% end%of%document%for%methods%and%defining%terms).%The%aim%of%this%document%is%to%expand%understanding% of%habitat%vulnerability%to%changing%climate%conditions,%and%to%provide%a%foundation%for%developing% appropriate%adaptation%responses.( % Habitat'Description' Alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!are!found!in!highDelevation!areas!on!the!island!of!Hawai‘i,! primarily!on!Mauna!Loa!and!Mauna!Kea.!These!habitats!mostly!lie!above!the!mean!height!of! the!trade!wind!inversion!(TWI),!and!therefore!are!arid!with!very!little!precipitation!or!fog! (Longman!et!al.!2015).!Unlike!many!areas!of!the!world,!highDelevation!vegetation!is!most!likely! limited!by!moisture!rather!than!by!low!temperatures!(Crausbay!&!Hotchkiss!2010;!Gotsch!et!al.! 2014).!! ! Alpine!communities!are!found!above!the!tree!line!up!to!the!summits!of!Mauna!Loa,!Mauna!Kea,! and!Hualālai!over!3,000!m!(10,000!ft;!Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015).! Alpine!habitats!are!dry!and!semiDbarren,!with!large!pu‘u!(cinder!cones)!scattered!throughout! (Gerrish!2013;!Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015).!Alpine!areas!are!often! composed!of!shrubland,!grassland,!and!stone!desert!habitats!at!increasingly!high!elevations! (Gerrish!2013),!with!many!endemic!and!highly!specialized!plant!and!animal!species!that!are! adapted!to!extreme!isolation!(Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015).!Native! plant!species!include!pūkiawe!(Leptecophylla%tameiameiae),!Mauna!Kea!silversword! (Argyroxiphium%sandwicense!ssp.!sandwicense),!Mauna!Kea!dubautia!(Dubautia%arborea),!pili! uka!grass!(Trisetum%glomeratum),!Hawai‘i!bentgrass!(Agrostis%sandwicensis),!‘iwa‘iwa!ferns! (Asplenium%capillus>veneris),!Douglas’!bladderfern!(Cystopteris%douglasii),!and!invertebrates! such!as!Wēkiu!bugs!(Nysius%wekiuicola)!and!other!native!arthropod!communities!(Gerrish!2013;! Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015);!alpine!areas!also!provide!habitat!for! seabirds!such!as!the!‘ua‘u!(Hawaiian!Petrel,!Pterodroma%sandwichensis;!Hawai‘i!Department!of! Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015).!! !
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! 1!This!information!was!gathered!during!a!vulnerability!assessment!and!scenarioDplanning!workshop!in!January!2017! (http://ecoadapt.org/workshops/hawaiivulnerabilityworkshop).!Further!information!and!citations!can!be!found!in! the!Hawaiian%Islands%Climate%Vulnerability%and%Adaptation%Synthesis!and!other!products!available!online!at! www.bit.ly/HawaiiClimate.!! ! Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 1! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Subalpine!communities!lie!between!2,000!and!3,000!m!(6,560!to!10,000!ft)!in!elevation,!and! may!consist!of!shrublands,!grasslands,!and!forests!with!sparse,!short!trees;!forests!are!primarily! dry,!although!a!subalpine!mesic!forest!area!can!be!found!on!Mauna!Loa!(Hawai‘i!Department!of! Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015).!These!habitats!support!abundant!arthropod!diversity!and! high!species!endemism!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017),!and!much!of!the! Hawai‘i!nēnē!population!breeds!in!open!subalpine!shrubland!and!grassland!habitats!on!the! south/southeastern!flanks!of!Mauna!Loa!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017);! vegetation!includes!māmane!(Sophora%chrysophylla),!naio%(Myoporum%sandwicense),!aweoweo! (Chenopodium%oahuense),!a‘ali‘i!(Dodonaea%viscosa),!and!‘ōhi‘a!lehua!(Metrosideros% polymorpha)!trees,!‘ōhelo!(Vaccinium%spp.)!and!pūkiawe!shrubs;!‘āhinahina!(Mauna!Loa! silversword;%Argyroxiphium%kauense);!bracken!fern!(Pteridium%aquilinum);!and!alpine!hairgrass! (Deschampsia%nubigena;!Gerrish!2013;!Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources! 2015).! ! Most!of!Mauna!Loa!over!3,000!m!(10,000!ft)!and!the!northern!slope!of!Mauna!Kea!from!3,000– 4,000!m!(10,000–13,000!ft)!are!rarely!visited;!on!Mauna!Kea,!only!a!handful!of!visitors!venture! more!than!200!yards!past!the!highDelevation!astronomy!access!roads!each!year!(Vuln.! Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017).!Comparatively,!Lake!Waiʻau!receives!thousands!of! visitors!yearly!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017).!Additional!alpine!areas!with! relatively!limited!human!activity!include!the!Mauna!Kea!Adze!Quarry,!Mokuʻāweoweo!caldera! area,!and!springs!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017).! ! Habitat'Vulnerability''' Alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!in! Alpine'&'Subalpine' Hawai‘i!were!evaluated!as!having! Habitats' Rank' Confidence' moderateDhigh!vulnerability!to! climate!change!due!to!high! Sensitivity! High! High! sensitivity!to!climate!and!nonD Future!Exposure! ModerateDHigh! Low! climate!stressors,!moderateDhigh! Adaptive!Capacity! LowDModerate! High! exposure!to!projected!future! climate!changes,!and!lowD Vulnerability' Moderate
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 2! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! ! invasive!species!also!alter!disturbance!regimes,!surface!hydrology,!and!other!ecosystem! processes.! ! Alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!are!severely!degraded!in!some!areas,!particularly!in!subalpine! areas!impacted!by!ungulate!grazing.!The!isolated!nature!of!these!habitat!types!has!led!to! limited!native!species!diversity,!but!levels!of!endemism!are!high!and!species!are!typically! adapted!to!harsh!conditions.!Because!there!is!little!to!no!potential!for!upslope!habitat! migration,!the!loss!of!highDelevation!refugia!may!make!it!difficult!for!many!native!species!to! survive.!Although!societal!and!public!support!for!these!habitat!types!is!high,!relatively!little!can! be!done!to!alleviate!the!impacts!of!climate!change!on!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats.! Management!activities!focus!primarily!on!minimizing!the!impacts!of!invasive!species,!followed! by!passive!(e.g.,!allowing!natural!regeneration)!or!active!(e.g.,!rare!species!reintroduction)! recovery!of!native!species,!and!successful!habitat!restoration!efforts!are!occurring.! ! Sensitivity'and'Exposure'
Climatic'Factors'and'Disturbance'Regimes' Because!they!typically!lie!above!the!height!of!the!TWI,!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!are!dry! and!are!most!sensitive!to!factors!that!increase!water!stress,!including!changes!in!the!amount! and!timing!of!precipitation,!and!changes!in!the!frequency!of!the!TWI!that!could!contribute!to! even!drier!conditions!(Table!1).!Warmer!air!temperatures!and!increased!solar!radiation!may! cause!additional!stress!for!vegetation,!except!potentially!in!the!highest!elevations!where! growth!is!primarily!limited!by!low!temperatures;!however,!reduced!soil!freezing!may!also! increase!invasive!plant!diversity!in!alpine!areas.!Subalpine!vegetation!is!slow!to!recover! following!a!disturbance,!and!events!such!as!wildfire!may!cause!plant!injury!or!mortality.!Some! subalpine!birds!are!also!sensitive!to!mosquitoDborne!diseases!such!as!avian!malaria,!with! higherDrisk!transmission!zones!expanding!upslope!as!temperatures!increase.
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 3! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Table&1.!Current!and!projected!future!trends!in!climatic!factors!and!disturbance!regimes,!as!well!as!their!potential!impacts!on!alpine!and! subalpine!habitats.!This!habitat!is!sensitive!to!the!climatic!factors!and!disturbance!regimes!listed!below,!and!will!likely!be!exposed!to!projected! future!changes!in!them.!All!factors!were!ranked!as!having!a!moderate!or!higher!impact!on!these!habitats.!
Alpine&habitats:!High!impact!(high!confidence)! Climatic&factors&and&disturbance®imes&& Subalpine&habitats:!High!impact!(moderate!confidence)! Precipitation+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* (amount+&+ •! Since!1920,!precipitation!has!decreased!across!the! •! Rainfall!in!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!is!limited!by!their! timing)+ Hawaiian!Islands!with!the!strongest!drying!trends! position!above!the!TWI,!resulting!in!low!relative!humidity!and! occurring!over!the!last!30!years!(Frazier!et!al.!2016;! arid!conditions,!especially!during!the!summer!months;! Frazier!&!Giambelluca!2017)! precipitation!often!occurs!in!the!form!of!snow!or!ice!at!the! •! From!1920!to!2012,!dry!season!(May–Oct.)! highest!elevations!(de!Silva!2012)! precipitation!on!Hawai‘i!declined!an!average!of!3.19%! •! Water!stress!increases!native!species!mortality,!especially! per!decade!across!the!island;!declines!were!greatest! where!warmer!temperatures!accelerate!evapotranspiration! on!the!leeward!side,!and!declines!were!at!least!6%!per! rates,!leading!to!greater!water!loss!(Gotsch!et!al.!2014;! decade!for!most!of!the!Kona!region!(Frazier!&! Krushelnycky!et!al.!2016)! Giambelluca!2017)! o! Silversword!recruitment!and!early!survival!on!Mauna!Loa! •! From!1920–2012,!wet!season!(Nov.–April)! is!higher!in!areas!and!years!with!more!rain,!suggesting!the! precipitation!on!Hawai‘i!declined!an!average!of!1.64%! species’!recovery!may!be!hampered!by!reduced! per!decade!across!the!island,!with!the!largest!declines! precipitation!(Robichaux!et!al.!2017)! on!the!leeward!side,!especially!in!the!Kona!region! o! Since!1990,!mortality!due!to!water!stress!has!been! (Frazier!&!Giambelluca!2017)! associated!with!a!60%!decline!in!a!silversword!endemic!to! •! Since!1997,!dry!years!were!twice!as!common!as!wet! Maui!(Haleakalā!silversword;!Argyroxiphium+sandwicense+ years!on!Mauna!Kea,!and!monthly!rainfall!was!lower! macrocephalum),!with!greater!losses!in!the!lowere than!normal!for!65%!of!months!at!Pu‘u!Lā‘au!and!71%! elevation!portions!of!the!range!(Krushelnycky!et!al.!2012,! of!months!at!Halepōhaku!(Banko!et!al.!2013)! 2016);!although!it!is!much!less!wellestudied,!similar! impacts!to!the!Mauna!Kea!silversword!are!probably! •! From!1958–2008,!precipitation!on!the!summit!of! Mauna!Loa!declined!by!34.5!mm!(1.36!in)!per!decade;! occurring!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,! no!significant!trends!were!detected!at!the!summit!of! 2017)! ! Mauna!Kea!(de!Silva!2012)! o High!phenotypic!plasticity!enhances!resilience!to!water! stress!in!some!species!(e.g.,!silversword,!‘ōhi‘a;!Gotsch!et! •! In!the!1700s–1800s,!snow!on!Mauna!Kea!was!far!more! al.!2014;!Krushelnycky!et!al.!2016)! common!in!both!winter!and!summer!than!it!is!today! ! (Schörghofer!et!al.!2014)! • Māmane!trees!on!Hawai‘i!produced!up!to!76%!fewer!seed!
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 4! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
! pods!during!several!years!of!significantly!reduced! Projected*future*trends* precipitation,!contributing!to!the!decline!of!the!palila! Precipitation!projections!are!highly!uncertain!because!they! (Loxioides+bailleui)!and!other!endemic!forest!bird!species! vary!in!projected!direction!and!magnitude.!At!high! (Banko!et!al.!2013)! elevations,!precipitation!is!primarily!affected!by!TWI! •! A!study!of!subalpine!and!montane!forests!on!Maui! frequency!(occurs!when!no!TWI!is!in!place);!across!the! determined!that!drier!conditions!may!result!in!significant! island,!rainfall!will!be!affected!by!shifts!in!the!El!Niñoe downslope!movement!of!the!forest!line,!while!wetter! Southern!Oscillation!(ENSO)!and!Pacific!Decadal!Oscillation! conditions!may!lead!to!slight!upslope!movement!(Crausbay!&! (PDO),!as!well!as!the!amount!of!future!greenhouse!gas! Hotchkiss!2015);!similar!conditions!likely!apply!on!Hawai‘i.! emissions.!Possible!future!scenarios!for!Hawai‘i!(across!all! •! Both!Lake!Wai‘au!and!Pu‘upōhaku!(a!body!of!standing!water! elevations)!include:! in!a!nearby!cinder!cone)!are!dependent!on!precipitation!and! •! Slight!increase!or!no!change!by!2100!(Keener!et!al.! are!primarily!filled!by!rainfall!from!winter!storms;!periods!of! 2013)+ reduced!precipitation!and!drought!are!closely!correlated!with! •! Decrease!in!precipitation!across!all!seasons!by!2100! a!reduction!in!the!area!of!Lake!Wai‘au!(Woodcock!1980;! (4%!to!6%!decrease!in!wet!season!precipitation;!16%! Patrick!&!Kauahikaua!2015;!Leopold!et!al.!2016)! to!28%!decrease!in!dry!season!precipitation;!Elison! o! In!2014,!drying!in!Lake!Wai‘au!corresponded!to!very!low! Timm!et!al.!2015)! Wēkiu!bug!capture!rates;!captures!rates!were!at!the! •! By!2100,!large!increase!in!windward!precipitation!in! lowest!level!since!1998!(also!a!drought!year;!Vuln.! the!dry!season!(up!to!40%)!and!moderate!increases!in! Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! wet!season!windward!precipitation!(up!to!20%);! •! Drier!conditions!may!also!impact!springs!on!Mauna!Kea!(Vuln.! decreased!leeward!precipitation!in!both!seasons!(up! Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! to!40%;!Zhang!et!al.!2016)! ! o! At!high!elevations,!increased!TWI!frequency!will! Potential*refugia* correspond!to!an!almost!50%!decrease!in!the! •! Topographic!microclimates;!however,!decreased!precipitation! fraction!of!days!without!a!welledefined!TWI!on! could!cause!a!loss!of!refugia!(e.g.,!seeps,!springs,!lakes;!Vuln.! which!precipitation!is!more!likely!to!occur!(Zhang! Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! et!al.!2016)! •! Tenefold!reduction!in!mean!annual!snowfall,!resulting! in!a!nearedisappearance!of!snow!on!the!summit!of! Mauna!Kea!(Zhang!et!al.!2017)!! Wind+&+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* circulation+ •! Since!the!1990s,!the!Pacific!trade!winds!(both!the! •! More!frequent!occurrence!of!the!TWI!has!likely!contributed! Walker!and!Hadley!cells)!have!increased,! to!trends!of!decreased!rainfall,!humidity,!and!soil!moisture,!
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 5! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
corresponding!with!a!negative!Pacific!Decadal! and!increased!solar!radiation!at!higheelevation!sites!on!Maui! Oscillation!(PDO)!phase!(England!et!al.!2014)! over!the!last!25!years!(Longman!et!al.!2015);!similar! •! Trade!wind!direction!has!shifted!from!predominantly! conditions!likely!apply!on!Hawai‘i.! northeast!to!east!from!1973–2009!(Garza!et!al.!2012),! •! Changes!in!the!height!of!the!TWI!would!likely!impact!forest! which!represents!a!cyclical!shift!that!is!known!to! distribution!by!increasing!water!stress!at!high!elevations,! complete!its!cycle!approximately!every!45!years! preventing!subalpine!forests!from!moving!upslope!in! (Wentworth!1949)! response!to!warming!temperatures!(Atkinson!&!LaPointe! •! The!frequency!of!trade!wind!inversion!(TWI)! 2009;!Crausbay!&!Hotchkiss!2015)! occurrence!increased!an!average!of!16%!starting!in! •! Fogeintercept!species!would!be!particularly!vulnerable!to! 1990!(Longman!et!al.!2015)! more!frequent!occurrence!of!the!TWI!(Vuln.!Assessment! •! From!1958–2008,!wind!speed!decreased!slightly!on! Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! the!summit!of!Mauna!Loa!and!increased!on!the! •! Subalpine!vegetation!could!potentially!expand!into!lowere summit!of!Mauna!Kea!(de!Silva!2012)! elevation!forests!if!the!trade!wind!inversion!level!lowers! ! (Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! Projected*future*trends* ! Projections!for!the!TWI!are!moderately!uncertain!due!to! Potential*refugia* the!influence!of!largeescale!atmospheric!patterns!(e.g.,!El! •! Topographic!microclimates!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,! NiñoeSouthern!Oscillation![ENSO]!and!Pacific!Decadal! pers.!comm.,!2017)! Oscillation![PDO]).!Possible!future!scenarios!include:! •! An!8e9%!increase!in!TWI!frequency!of!occurrence,! corresponding!to!an!almost!50%!decrease!in!days! without!a!welledefined!TWI!(decrease!from!17%!of! days!currently!to!9%!of!days!by!2100;!Zhang!et!al.! 2016,!2017)+ •! Possible!decrease!in!TWI!base!height,!ranging!from! small!(Zhang!et!al.!2016,!2017)!to!more!significant! (Lauer!et!al.!2013)+ ! Surface!wind!speed!and!direction!may!change,!but!studies! have!reached!varying!conclusions:+ •! Nov.–Dec.!surface!wind!speeds!across!the!Hawaiian! Islands!may!decrease!sharply!by!2100,!with!small! changes!in!surface!wind!speed!possible!in!other! seasons!(Storlazzi!et!al.!2015)+
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 6! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
•! Surface!winds!in!the!Hawaiian!Islands!may!increase! modestly,!with!a!very!modest!increase!in!frequency!of! strong!wind!days!(Zhang!et!al.!2016)+ Air+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* temperature+ •! From!1975–2006,!the!rate!of!air!temperature!increases! •! Increased!air!temperatures!would!cause!the!loss!of! has!accelerated!to!0.2°C!(0.36°F)!per!decade,! permafrost!habitat!types!on!the!summits!of!Mauna!Kea!and! compared!to!overall!increases!of!0.04°C!(0.07°F)!per! Mauna!Loa!(Schörghofer!et!al.!2017)! decade!for!all!records!from!1919–1975;!the!strongest! •! Warmer!air!temperatures!were!associated!with!reduced! warming!is!found!at!high!elevations!and!in!winter! growth!and!survival!in!Haleakalā!silversword!growing!at!lower! minimum!temperatures!(Giambelluca!et!al.!2008)! elevations!on!Maui,!but!had!the!opposite!effect!at!higher! •! From!1958–2009,!the!number!of!freezing!days! elevations,!suggesting!that!plants!near!the!summit!are!limited! declined!from!~4–5!days!per!year!to!~1!day!per!year!at! by!low!temperatures;!however,!large!temperature!increases,! Hilo!(3,150!m!elevation)!(Diaz!et!al.!2011)! such!as!those!projected!by!climate!models,!may!act!as!a! •! From!1958–2008,!temperatures!on!the!summit!of! stressor!in!these!higheelevation!sites,!limiting!growth!and! Mauna!Loa!increased!by!1.5°C!(2.7°F)!per!decade;!no! survival!(Krushelnycky!et!al.!2016);!the!same!is!likely!true!of! significant!trends!were!detected!at!the!summit!of! the!Mauna!Loa!and!Mauna!Kea!silversword.! Mauna!Kea!(de!Silva!2012)!! •! Reflective!pubescent!leaves!and!rosette!geometry!in!the! ! Haleakalā!silversword!increases!the!temperature!of!the!apical! Projected*future*trends* bud,!enhancing!physiological!processes!in!developing!leaves;! Projections!that!air!temperature!will!increase!are!highly! however,!this!trait!may!cause!lethal!tissue!temperatures!at! certain,!although!the!magnitude!of!change!is!less!certain.! lower!elevations,!limiting!the!species!distribution!(Melcher!et! Possible!future!scenarios!include:! al.!1994);!the!same!is!likely!true!of!the!Mauna!Loa!and!Mauna! Kea!silversword.! •! Air!temperature!increases!by!2°C!(3.6°F)!to!3.5°C! •! Subalpine!forests!may!be!unable!to!shift!upslope!in!response! (6.3°F)!across!the!Hawaiian!Islands!by!2100!(Zhang!et! to!warming!temperatures!if!conditions!become!increasingly! al.!2016)! dry!(Atkinson!&!LaPointe!2009;!Crausbay!&!Hotchkiss!2015)! o! Increases!of!3.0°C!(5.4°)!to!3.5°C!(6.3°)!at! •! elevations!over!3,000!m!(10,000!ft;!Zhang!et!al.! Increased!temperatures!could!also!allow!existing!invasive! species!to!expand!their!range!and/or!new!species!to!become! 2016)! established!(Vorsino!et!al.!2014),!as!invasive!species!are! •! Increase!in!the!mean!freezing!level!height!of!600–700! typically!limited!by!harsh!conditions!at!upper!elevations! m!(1,969–2,296!ft;!Zhang!et!al.!2017)! rather!than!lack!of!dispersal!(Daehler!2005)! •! More!frequent!and!more!intense!extreme!heat!days! o! Increased!competition!and!predation!by!invasive!species! (Keener!et!al.!2012)! is!likely!to!be!a!major!impact!for!extreme!higheelevation! insects!and!plants!that!are!adapted!to!survive!freeze! Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 7! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
events!(likely!to!become!much!less!frequent;!Vuln.! Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! •! Warmer!temperatures!may!decrease!generation!times!in! native!arthropods!and!contribute!to!shifts!or!declines!in! alpine!arthropod!food!sources!and!increased!competition! with!invasive!species,!resulting!in!range!contraction!or! extirpation!in!high!alpine!environments!(Eiben!&!Rubinoff! 2014;!Stephenson!et!al.!2017)! •! Temperature!increases!are!likely!to!increase!the!range!of! mosquitos!that!carry!avian!malaria!(Plasmodium!spp.),! accelerating!infection!rate!and!intensity!of!malaria! transmission!to!endemic!forest!birds!and!reducing!highe elevation!refugia!(Benning!et!al.!2002;!Atkinson!&!LaPointe! 2009;!Fortini!et!al.!2015;!Liao!et!al.!2015)!!! •! Although!warmer!temperatures!and!lack!of!freezing!may! benefit!a!few!native!insect!and!plant!species!in!alpine!and! subalpine!habitats!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.! comm.,!2017),!many!are!limited!by!moisture!rather!than! temperature!(Krushelnycky!et!al.!2016)! •! Subsurface!freezing!depth!currently!prevents!many!invasive! plants!from!encroaching!upslope!into!high!alpine!areas! (~3,200m!elevation!line!for!~8cm+!depth!of!freezing);! however,!the!potential!for!reduced!soilefreezing!depths!and! lower!frequency!of!deep!freezing!events!under!increasingly! warm!conditions!may!allow!more!species!of!invasive!plants!to! become!established!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.! comm.,!2017)! ! Geographic*variation* •! Freezing!threshold!(0°C![32°F]!and!cold!air!ponding! (Schörghofer!et!al.!2017;!Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.! comm.,!2017)! ! !
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 8! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Potential*refugia* •! Topographic!microclimates;!subalpine!vegetation!could!move! upslope!into!alpine!areas!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.! comm.,!2017)! Solar+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* radiation+ •! No!trends!are!available!for!solar!radiation! •! Increased!solar!radiation!is!associated!with!more!frequent! •! Solar!radiation!increases!with!elevation,!but!varies! occurrence!of!the!TWI,!and!changes!in!the!TWI!are!also!likely! depending!on!factors!such!as!season,!time!of!day,!and! to!increase!solar!radiation!in!alpine!habitats!(Longman!et!al.! cloudiness!(Juvik!&!Nullet!1994)! 2015)! •! Although!solar!radiation!is!important,!lots!of! •! The!impacts!of!solar!radiation!on!subalpine!habitats!are! uncertainty!exists!on!this!topic*(Vuln.!Assessment! presumably!attenuated!by!atmospheric!moisture!(Vuln.! Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! ! •! Arthropods!need!intense!solar!radiation!to!heat!substrate!for! Projected*future*trends* exothermic!growth,!but!they!also!need!to!hide!from!direct!UV! •! A!significant!decrease!in!days!without!a!welledefined! effects;!however,!this!intense!heating!only!matters!for!insect! TWI!(almost!50%!decrease)!by!2100!implies!fewer! growth!when!the!air!temperatures!are!below!developmental! cloudy!days!will!occur!(Zhang!et!al.!2016)! thresholds!(Eiben!&!Rubinoff!2014)! ! Geographic*variation* •! Free!atmospheric!water!vapor!within!100!m!(328!ft)!of! boundary!layer!(as!opposed!to!attenuation!by!TWI!frequency;! Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! ! Potential*refugia* •! Shelter!under!rocks,!northern!slope!aspects!in!alpine!habitats! (Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! Wildfire+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* •! From!1904–2011,!the!overall!trend!has!been!towards! •! Invasive!flammable!grasses,!which!are!increasingly!colonizing! increases!in!area!burned!across!all!of!the!Hawaiian! subalpine!habitats,!may!increase!the!risk!of!wildfire!ignitions! Islands,!but!with!high!interannual!variability! and!contribute!to!more!frequent,!larger,!or!more!severe!fires! (Trauernicht!et!al.!2015)! (Cabin!et!al.!2000;!Banko!et!al.!2002;!Hawai‘i!Department!of! ! Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015;!Trauernicht!et!al.!2015)! ! o! More!frequent!fires!may!promote!the!dominance!and!
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 9! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Projected*future*trends* continued!expansion!of!invasive!grasses,!which!can! •! The!probability!of!fire!occurrence!in!grassland,! perpetuate!fire!regime!alterations!(D’Antonio!et!al.! shrubland,!and!forest!areas!on!the!leeward!side!of!the! 2011)! island!is!expected!to!roughly!double;!wildfire!risk!is! •! Longer!and/or!more!severe!droughts!are!associated!with!an! highest!at!mideelevation!sites!and!in!grasslands!(Wada! increase!in!the!likelihood!of!wildfires!(Loope!&!Giambelluca! et!al.!2017)+ 1998;!Dolling!et!al.!2005)! •! Increased!wildfire!is!likely!if!drier!conditions!and!more! •! Wildfire!increases!erosion!by!removing!vegetation!and! drought!occur!(Trauernicht!et!al.!2015)! exposing!bare!soil!(Ice!et!al.!2004)! •! Posteburn!native!species!recruitment!in!subalpine!habitats!is! slow!(Smith!&!Tunison!1992)! •! Alpine!habitats!have!low!sensitivity!to!wildfire,!due!to!their! sparse!vegetation!and!resulting!low!fuel!loads!(Smith!&! Tunison!1992)! Disease+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* •! No!information!is!available!for!plant!disease! •! Warming!temperatures!and!changes!in!precipitation!may! ! alter!the!distribution!and!severity!of!fungal!diseases!and! Projected*future*trends* other!pathogens!that!can!affect!subalpine!trees!by!increasing! •! Warming!temperatures!are!expected!to!increase!the! reproductive!potential!(Rosenzweig!et!al.!2001;!Conry!&! distribution!of!avian!diseases!spread!by!mosquitos,! Cannarella!2010;!Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural! such!as!avian!malaria!(Fortini!et!al.!2015)!! Resources!2015)! o! This!general!trend!is!occurring!worldwide,!and!is!likely!to! o! Within!the!Hanawi!Natural!Area!Reserve!on!Maui,! also!occur!in!alpine!areas,!especially!where!there!are!no! areas!of!montane!forest!where!birds!are!at!low! refugia!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! risk!of!contracting!malaria!may!be!reduced!by!up! •! Introduced!vegetative!diseases!such!as!‘ōhi‘a!rust!have!the! to!47%!by!2100!(Benning!et!al.!2002);!the!same!is! potential!to!significantly!alter!species!composition!in! likely!true!on!Hawai‘i!Island.! subalpine!forests!(Conant!et!al.!2010;!Loope!2010;!Krist!et!al.! •! 0.4!million!forested!acres!across!the!Hawaiian!Islands! 2014)! are!at!risk!of!experiencing!a!25%!decrease!in!standing! •! Many!diseases!are!dispersed!by!insect!vectors,!such!as!rapid! live!basal!area!by!2027!due!to!the!combined!threat!of! ‘ōhi‘a!death!(caused!by!the!fungus!Ceratocystis+fimbriata)! insects!and!disease!(not!taking!climatic!changes!into! which!is!likely!spread!by!woodeboring!beetles!(Loope!2016)! account;!Krist!et!al.!2014)! •! Avian!malaria!and!avian!pox!(Avipoxvirus!spp.)!are!expanding! o! Koa!wilt!(Fusarium+oxysporum+f.!sp.!koae)!and! into!subalpine!forests!due!to!upslope!shifts!of!mosquito! ‘ōhi‘a!rust!(Austropuccinia+psidii)!are!the!greatest! vectors;!these!diseases!have!drastically!reduced!native! disease!threats!on!Hawai‘i,!primarily!on!mide Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 10! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
elevation!windward!slopes!(Krist!et!al.!2014)! honeycreepers!and!other!endemic!forest!bird!populations! o! 53,000!acres!across!the!Hawaiian!Islands!are!at! over!the!last!century!(Atkinson!&!LaPointe!2009)! risk!due!to!koa!wilt!(Krist!et!al.!2014)! •! Little!change!is!expected!in!the!suitable!climatic!space! for!‘ōhi‘a!rust!(Hanna!et!al.!2012)!
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 11! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Non$Climate,Stressors, Sensitivity!of!the!habitat!to!climate!change!impacts!may!be!highly!influenced!by!the!existence! and!extent!of,!and!current!exposure!to,!nonGclimate!stressors!(Table!2).!NonGclimate!stressors! (e.g.,!roads/highways,!recreation,!development,!agriculture,!military!activity)!impact!alpine!and! subalpine!habitats!by!reducing!habitat!extent!and!fragmenting!or!degrading!remaining!habitat! areas!by!introducing!pollutants,!increasing!erosion,!increasing!the!risk!of!wildfire,!and! introducing!invasive!plants!and!arthropods.!Many!invasive!species,!including!trees/shrubs,! flammable!grasses,!ungulates,!mammalian!predators,!parasites/pathogens,!and!insects,!may! increasingly!shift!upslope!into!alpine!and!subalpine!ecosystems,!altering!habitat!composition! and!degrading!highGelevation!areas!by!damaging!or!killing!native!species,!inhibiting!native! species!recruitment,!competing!with!native!species!for!resources,!and!altering!ecosystem! processes!(e.g.,!wildfire!regimes,!water!infiltration,!erosion).!!
Table,2.!Key!nonGclimate!stressors!that!affect!the!overall!sensitivity!of!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!to! climate!change.!All!factors!were!ranked!as!having!a!moderate!or!higher!impact!on!these!habitats.!
Alpine,habitats:!Moderate!overall!impact!(high!confidence)! Non$climate,stressors,, Subalpine,habitats:!ModerateGhigh!overall!impact!(high!confidence), Roads,' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) highways,'&' •! Roads!contribute!to!the!spread!of!invasive!plants!to!highGelevation!sites,!and!may! trails' allow!the!spread!of!temperate!weeds!into!higher!elevations!where!they!are!less! likely!to!be!outGcompeted!by!tropical!weeds!(Daehler!2005)' o! A!2008!survey!on!Mauna!Loa!found!an!additional!eight!invasive!species!not! seen!in!1958,!most!of!them!represented!by!just!a!few!plants!found!near!the! road!(Juvik!et!al.!2011)' •! Roads!and!highways!increase!impervious!surface,!increasing!polluted!runoff!and! erosion!and!reducing!water!infiltration!in!forests!(Conry!&!Cannarella!2010)' •! Nēnē!can!be!struck!by!cars,!with!most!or!all!strikes!occurring!near!water!sources! such!as!ranching!water!ponds!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)' •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Localized' Invasive/' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) problematic' •! Social!insects!were!not!historically!present!in!Hawaiian!ecosystems!(Wilson!1996),! social'insects' and!their!introduction!has!changed!habitats!by!impacting!populations!of!native! insects!(e.g.,!pollinators,!other!arthropods)!through!predation!and/or!competition! for!food!(Nishida!&!Evenhuis!2000;!Wilson!&!Holway!2010;!Medeiros!et!al.!2013)! •! Warmer!temperatures!may!promote!invasion!into!subalpine!shrublands!by! Argentine!ants!(Linepithema'humile;!Hartley!et!al.!2010),!negatively!impacting!the! abundance!and!diversity!of!native!arthropods!and!other!invertebrates!(Nishida!&! Evenhuis!2000;!Krushelnycky!&!Gillespie!2008)! •! Highly!invasive!western!yellowjackets!(Vespula'pensylvanica)!prey!on!and!displace! pollinators!(both!introduced!and!endemic)!and!rob!nectar!(Wilson!&!Holway!2010;! Hanna!et!al.!2013),!significantly!decreasing!pollination!and!seed!set!of!‘ōhi‘a!(Hanna! et!al.!2013)! •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Variable!across!habitat!(speciesGspecific)!
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 12! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Invasive/' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) problematic' •! Invasive!ungulates,!including!sheep!(Ovis'aries,'O.'gmelini'musimon),!pigs!(Sus' ungulates' scrofa),!and!goats!(Capra'hircus),!are!a!major!cause!of!degradation!in!subalpine! habitats!(Banko!et!al.!2014)' •! Ungulate!browsing!and!barkGstripping!can!prevent!forest!regeneration!and!cause! injury!or!mortality!in!native!trees,!especially!māmane,!which!is!preferred!by!sheep! (Scowcroft!&!Conrad!1992;!Banko!et!al.!2014);!these!impacts!can!alter!species! composition,!native!abundance,!and!increase!the!introduction!and!establishment!of! invasive!plants!in!disturbed!areas!(Scowcroft!&!Conrad!1992;!Stone!et!al.!1992)' •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Consistent!across!habitat) Invasive/' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) problematic' •! Mammalian!predators,!including!rats!(Rattus!spp.),!mongooses!(Herpestes'spp.),!and! mammalian' feral!cats!(Felis'catus)!are!among!the!primary!predators!of!forest!bird!eggs,!nestlings,! predators' and!incubating!adults!(Banko!et!al.!2002;!Becker!et!al.!2010;!Hawai‘i!Department!of! Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015);!they!also!prey!on!nesting!seabirds!(Simons!&! Hodges!1998;!Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015)! •! Rats!and!mice!consume!the!seeds!of!native!plant!species,!reducing!seedling! recruitment!(Juvik!&!Juvik!1998;!Banko!et!al.!2002;!Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and! Natural!Resources!2015)) •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Consistent!across!habitat) Recreation' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) •! Game!animals!were!introduced!and!maintained!for!the!purposes!of!public!hunting;! these!include!sheep!and!goats!that!caused!severe!degradation!of!subalpine!habitats! as!their!numbers!multiplied!(Banko!et!al.!2014)! •! Recreational!visitors!traveling!on!trails!and!roads!increase!the!likelihood!of! introducing!invasive!plant!seeds,!pathogens,!and!insects!from!lowerGelevation!areas! (Daehler!2005);!for!instance,!rapid!‘ōhi‘a!death!can!be!spread!through!the! movement!of!infected!soil!by!human!activity,!such!as!on!boots!and!car! undercarriages!(Loope!2016)!! •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Localized) Development' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) •! Localized!construction!on!Mauna!Kea!and!Mauna!Loa!has!disturbed!sensitive!alpine! habitats,!reducing!available!habitat!for!endemic!Wēkiu!bugs!(Porter!&!Englund! 2006);!the!presence!of!hazardous!materials!and!waste!and!the!potential!for!aquifer! contamination!are!additional!concerns!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,! 2017)) •! Most!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!in!Hawai‘i!are!in!the!Conservation!District!with! nominal!development!pressures!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)) •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Highly!localized!–!observatories!(Mauna!Kea,!Mauna!Loa),!Mars! habitat!(Mauna!Loa))
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 13! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Invasive/' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) problematic' •! Gorse!(Ulex'europaeus),!apple!(Malus'domestica),!Eucalyptus!spp.,!and!broom! trees'&'shrubs' (Cytisus'palmensis)!have!invaded!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats,!limiting!native!plant! growth!and!recruitment!(Daehler!2005;!Gerrish!2013)!! •! Additional!nonGwoody!invasive!plants,!such!as!fireweed!(Senecio'madagascariensis)! and!mullein!(Verbascum'thapsus),!may!also!negatively!impact!alpine!and!subalpine! habitat!composition!and!ecosystem!functioning!(Benitez!et!al.!2012;!Gerrish!2013)! •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Localized!(Mauna!Kea,!Mauna!Loa,!Hualālai)) Agriculture!' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) •! Sheep!and!cattle!grazing!has!occurred!in!subalpine!areas!around!Mauna!Kea!since! the!1820s,!and!ranching!continued!in!the!region!until!2002;!this!resulted!in!the!loss! of!subalpine!tree!cover!and!conversion!of!forest!area!to!grasslands!dominated!by! nonGnative!species!(Ho‘okuleana!LLC!2009;!Banko!et!al.!2014)) •! The!use!of!highGelevation!sites!as!pasture!may!prevent!montane!forests!from! migrating!upslope!under!changing!climate!conditions,!reducing!potential!refugia! from!avian!malaria!(Benning!et!al.!2002)! •! Ungulates!spread!invasive!species!(e.g.,!gorse)!and!inhibit!native!forest!regeneration! (Ho‘okuleana!LLC!2009;!Banko!et!al.!2014);!however,!māmane!can!regenerate! following!ungulate!exclusion!(Banko!et!al.!2013)) •! Pine!tree!trials!on!Dept.!of!Hawaiian!Homelands!(DHHL)!property!could!increase!the! establishment!of!invasive!conifers!in!subalpine!habitats!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,! pers.!comm.,!2017)) •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Localized!(Mauna!Kea,!Mauna!Loa,!Hualālai)) Military' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) activity' •! Military!training!activities!may!increase!fire!risk!in!subalpine!forest!areas!within!the! Pōhakuloa!Training!Area!(Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015)) •! HighGelevation!helicopter!training,!which!occurred!around!2009,!slightly!increased! the!risk!of!moving!invasive!plants,!seeds,!and!insects!(Portage!2011;!Vuln.! Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)) •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Localized) Invasive/' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) problematic' •! NonGnative!flammable!grasses!such!as!fountain!grass!(Pennisetum'setaceum),! flammable' needlegrass!(Nassella'cernua),!Bromus!spp.,!and!Rytidosperma!spp.!are!primarily! grasses' found!in!subalpine!māmane!forest!and!pūkiawe!shrublands,!though!they!also!occur! at!much!lower!densities!in!barren!alpine!areas!(Gerrish!2013)! •! Invasive!grasses!increase!wildfire!severity!and!area!burned!(Trauernicht!et!al.!2015)! and!compete!with!native!plant!species,!preventing!successful!recruitment!(Cabin!et! al.!2000)!! •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Localized!depending!on!flow!age)
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 14! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Invasive/' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) problematic' •! Introduced!diseases!may!alter!species!composition!in!subalpine!forests!by!targeting! parasites'&' one!or!two!dominant!native!species!(Conant!et!al.!2010);!for!instance,!rapid!‘ōhi‘a! pathogens' death!can!cause!high!rates!of!tree!mortality,!potentially!shifting!forest!species! composition!(Mortenson!et!al.!2016)! •! It!is!unknown!whether!invasive!parasites!and!pathogens!affect!alpine!communities! (Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)) •! Pattern'of'exposure:'Consistent!across!habitat) ,
Other,Sensitivities,
Alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!are!also!sensitive!to!volcanic!activity,!which!may!cause!plant! injury!or!mortality!(Table!3).!
Table,3.,Other!sensitivities!that!may!affect!the!vulnerability!of!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!to!climate! change.!
Other,sensitivities,,,,,,,,,,,Alpine,and,subalpine,habitats:!High!sensitivity!(high!confidence)! Volcanic' Potential)impacts)on)habitat) activity' •! Lava!flows!are!a!natural!source!of!wildfire!ignitions!in!forest!areas,!resetting!plant! succession!in!burned!areas!(Ainsworth!&!Kauffman!2008)) •! Volcanic!emissions!(VOG,!or!volcanic!smog)!contains!high!levels!of!sulfur!dioxide! (SO2),!a!harmful!gas!that!can!be!absorbed!by!plants!through!their!stomata,!where!it! is!converted!to!sulfuric!acid!and!burns!plant!tissue;!forest!vegetation!downwind!of!
active!vents!is!most!affected,!although!some!species!are!SO2Gresistant!(e.g.,!‘ōhi‘a;! Nelson!&!Sewake!2008))
•! SO2!can!also!combine!with!water!in!the!atmosphere!to!create!acidic!precipitation!or! fog,!which!can!injure!plants,!reduce!growth!and!productivity,!impact!soil!acidity!and! fertility,!and!mobilize!heavy!metals!found!within!soil!(Nelson!&!Sewake!2008)) •! Pollutants!from!volcanic!activity!can!interact!with!other!stressors!(e.g.,!insect! outbreaks)!to!cause!greater!damage!to!forest!vegetation!(Conry!&!Cannarella!2010)! •! Volcanic!activity!can!impact!forest!wildlife!by!destroying!habitat;!for!instance,! eruptions!from!Mauna!Loa!in!1984!caused!a!decline!in!the!extent!of!quality!habitat! for!endemic!forest!birds!(Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources!2015)! •! Lava!flows!can!destroy!or!fragment!small!populations!of!native!species!such!as!the! Mauna!Loa!silversword!(U.S.!Fish!&!Wildlife!Service!1995)! ) Geographic)variation) •! Exposure!is!higher!on!Mauna!Loa!(last!eruption!1984)!than!on!Mauna!Kea!(last! eruption!~3,500!years!ago)!or!Hualalai!(last!eruption!1801;!Vuln.!Assessment! Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017! •! Impacts!related!to!air!quality!are!typically!limited!in!alpine!and!subalpine!as!the!TWI! restricts!dispersion!of!pollutants!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)!
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 15! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
! Adaptive,Capacity, Alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!are!severely!degraded!in!some!areas,!primarily!due!to!invasive! ungulates!in!subalpine!forests!and!by!human!activity!associated!with!mountaintop! observatories!(Table!4).!Their!isolated!nature!has!led!to!high!levels!of!endemism!and!species! adapted!to!harsh!conditions,!but!this!also!limits!native!species!dispersal!and!the!potential!for! upslope!habitat!migration.!Warmer!and!drier!conditions,!the!loss!of!highGelevation! microclimates,!and!further!alpine!development!may!threaten!species!such!as!the!endemic! Wēkiu!bug!and!palila.!Although!societal!and!public!support!for!these!habitat!types!is!high,! relatively!little!can!be!done!to!alleviate!the!impacts!of!climate!change.!Management!of!these! protected!areas!focuses!primarily!on!minimizing!the!impacts!of!invasive!species,!followed!by! passive!(e.g.,!allowing!natural!regeneration)!or!active!(e.g.,!rare!species!reintroduction)! recovery!of!native!species,!and!successful!habitat!restoration!efforts!are!occurring.! ! Table,4.!Adaptive!capacity!factors!that!influence!the!ability!of!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!to!adapt!to! projected!future!climate!changes.!Factors!that!receive!a!ranking!of!“High”!enhance!adaptive!capacity!for! this!habitat!(+),!while!factors!that!receive!a!ranking!of!“Low”!undermine!adaptive!capacity!($).!,
Adaptive,capacity,factors,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ModerateGhigh!adaptive!capacity!(high!confidence), Extent'&'integrity' $,,,,,Subalpine!forests!on!Hawai‘i!have!been!severely!degraded!by!invasive!plants,! ! ungulates,!insects,!and!conversion!to!agricultural!pastures!(Krushelnycky!&! Alpine,&,subalpine, Gillespie!2008;!Banko!et!al.!2014)! habitats:,, LowGmoderate! $,,,,,Alpine!habitats!are!impacted!directly!by!development!of!roads,!scientific! (high!confidence)! infrastructure!(e.g.,!observatories),!and!visitor!support!facilities!(e.g.,!visitor! centers,!trails,!etc.;!Gerrish!2013;!Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,! 2017);!less!direct!impacts!from!invasive!species!and!recreational!uses!(e.g.,! informal!trails,!species!introductions,!nutrient!additions)!are!more!pervasive! but!less!well!understood!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! Habitat'isolation' +,,,,,The!isolated!nature!of!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!has!led!to!very!high!levels! ! of!endemic!species!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! Alpine,habitats:,, +,,,,,Alpine!and!subalpine!vegetation!and!insects!generally!have!high!dispersal! High!! capacity!(Gerrish!2013;!Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017);! (moderate! confidence)! however,!insects!often!have!a!specialized!habitat!or!host!plant!that!may!limit! ! suitable!areas!for!dispersal!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)!! Subalpine,habitats:, $,,,,,Barriers!to!alpine!and!subalpine!vegetation!dispersal!include!invasive! ModerateGhigh! vegetation!and,!to!a!lesser!extent,!agriculture!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,! (moderate! pers.!comm.,!2017);!extirpated!and/or!rare!dispersal!agents!(e.g.,!native!insect! confidence)' and!bird!species)!may!also!limit!seed!dispersal!(Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,! pers.!comm.,!2017)! $,,,,,Roads!could!act!as!a!barrier!to!dispersal!for!some!animals!(Vuln.!Assessment! Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! $,,,,,Alpine!habitats!are!unable!to!expand!upslope,!preventing!range!shifts!in! response!to!changing!climate!conditions!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.! comm.,!2017)!! Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 16! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Resistance'&' +!,,,Some!endemic!forest!bird!species!may!be!able!to!develop!resistance!to!avian! recovery' malaria!(Kilpatrick!2006;!Liao!et!al.!2017)! ! +!,,,High!phenotypic!plasticity!and!evidence!of!rapid!microevolution!in!some!plant! Alpine,&,subalpine, alliances!(e.g.,!silversword,!lobeliad)!increases!their!capacity!to!tolerate!and/or! habitats:,, LowGmoderate! adapt!to!changing!climate!conditions!(Robichaux!et!al.!2017)! (high!confidence)' +/$,Vegetation!resistance!to!the!impacts!of!stressors!is!largely!dependent!on! ongoing!habitat!protection!and!management;!most!plant!species!are! vulnerable!to!reduced!suitable!habitat!area!as!moisture!and!temperature! stress!increase,!and!highGelevation!refugia!are!likely!to!disappear!over!time! (Crausbay!&!Hotchkiss!2015;!Krushelnycky!et!al.!2016)! $,,,,,Reduction!and!loss!of!pollinator!and!dispersal!species!may!impede!the!ability! of!native!species!to!reproduce!and!colonize!disturbed!areas,!potentially! elevating!their!risk!of!extirpation!(Sakai!et!al.!2002;!Krushelnycky!2014)! Habitat'diversity' +,,,,Although!species!diversity!in!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!is!relatively!low,! ! many!species!within!these!habitats!are!endemic,!and!include!many!siteGspecific! Alpine,&,subalpine, species!and!adaptively!radiated!groups!(e.g.,!silversword!alliance)!(Medeiros!et! habitats:,, al.!2013;!Robichaux!et!al.!2017)! LowGmoderate! (high!confidence)! +/$,Alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!are!characterized!by!specialized!native!species,! endemism,!and!harsh!environmental!conditions!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,! pers.!comm.,!2017)! +/$,Keystone!or!foundational!species!within!alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!vary,! with!localized!dominant!species!in!different!areas!(e.g.,!pūkiawe!or!māmane! and!naio;!Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! +/$,Other!factors!that!may!affect!habitat!diversity!include!substrate!age/type!(e.g.,! cinder,!a‘a,!pahoehoe)!and!maintaining!genetic!integrity/avoiding! crossbreeding!(Eiben!&!Rubinoff!2014;!Stephenson!et!al.!2017;!Vuln.! Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! $,,,,,Component!species!and/or!functional!groups!that!are!particularly!sensitive!to! climate!change!include!silverswords!(alpine/subalpine!habitats),!Wēkiu!bugs! (alpine!habitats),!and!palila!(subalpine!habitats;!Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,! pers.!comm.,!2017)! $,,,,,Many!species!of!Hawaiian!honeycreepers!that!utilize!subalpine!forests!are!in! decline!(Banko!et!al.!2013;!Hawai‘i!Department!of!Land!and!Natural!Resources! 2015),!and!additional!species!extinctions!are!likely!to!occur!due!to!increasing! avian!malaria!transmission!and!range!contractions!under!future!climate! conditions!(Benning!et!al.!2002;!Atkinson!&!LaPointe!2009;!Fortini!et!al.!2015)! Management' +,,,,,High!societal!support!for!managing!and!conserving!alpine!and!subalpine! potential'' habitats:!Mostly!undeveloped!land!under!the!influence!of!a!limited!number!of! ! constituencies;!alpine/subalpine!habitats!are!largely!managed!as!public!land! Alpine,&,subalpine, with!a!public!purpose!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! habitats:,, ModerateGhigh! +,,,,ModerateGhigh!public!value:!Alpine!and!subalpine!habitats!are!considered! (moderate! iconic!and/or!unique,!and!are!valued!for!their!undeveloped/rural!status,! confidence)' endemic!species,!opportunities!for!recreation,!and!as!sacred!sites!(Vuln.! Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)!! +,,,,,ModerateGhigh!manager!capacity!and!ability!to!cope!with!habitat!impacts:! Management!activities!focus!primarily!on!minimizing!the!impacts!of!invasive!
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 17! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
species,!followed!by!passive!(e.g.,!allowing!natural!regeneration)!or,!where! necessary!and!resources!permit,!active!recovery!(e.g.,!rare!species! augmentation!or!reintroduction;!Belfield!&!Pratt!2002;!Robichaux!et!al.!2017;! Vuln.!Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! +,,,,,Mitigation!strategies!to!reduce!avian!malaria!(e.g.,!mosquito!reduction,! malaria!transmission!control!by!refractory!mosquitos)!in!highGelevation!forests! may!support!endemic!forest!bird!populations!(Liao!et!al.!2017)!! +/$,Improving!coordination,!ensuring!a!clear!understanding!of!responsibility!and! jurisdiction,!and!increasing!stakeholder!responsiveness!would!likely!allow!more! effective!implementation!of!multiGjurisdictional!management!actions!(Vuln.! Assessment!Reviewer,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! +/$,Constituency!groups!that!influence!support!for!alpine!habitats!include!cultural,! scientific,!and!recreational!groups;!hunting!and!birdGwatching!groups!influence! support!for!subalpine!habitats!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,! 2017)!! +/$,Extreme!events!(e.g.,!volcanic!eruption)!would!likely!have!a!lowGmoderate! impact!on!societal!support!for!the!management!and!conservation!of!this! habitat.!Severe!drought!could!influence!societal!support!by!drying!Lake!Wai‘au! and!killing!vegetation!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)!! $,,,,,LowGmoderate!likelihood!of!managing!or!alleviating!climate!change!impacts!on! alpine!and!subalpine!habitats.!Management!efforts!should!likely!focus!on! removing!invasive!species;!little!can!be!done!for!hydrology!(Vuln.!Assessment! Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! $,,,,!User!conflicts/competing!interests!for!alpine!habitat!are!variable!(i.e.! dependent!on!the!specific!location);!ranching!is!the!primary!competing!interest! for!subalpine!habitats!(Vuln.!Assessment!Workshop,!pers.!comm.,!2017)! ! ! Recommended,Citation, Hilberg!LE,!Reynier!WA,!Kershner!JM,!Gregg!RM.!2018.!Alpine!&!Subalpine!Habitats:!A!Habitat! Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!Synthesis!for!Hawai‘i.!EcoAdapt,!Bainbridge!Island,! WA.!! Produced!in!cooperation!with!the!Pacific!Islands!Climate!Change!Cooperative,!with!funding! from!the!U.S.!Fish!and!Wildlife!Service. ! Literature,Cited, Ainsworth!A,!Kauffman!JB.!2008.!Response!of!native!Hawaiian!woody!species!to!lavaGignited!wildfires!in! tropical!forests!and!shrublands.!Plant!Ecology!201:197–209.! Atkinson!CT,!LaPointe!DA.!2009.!Introduced!avian!diseases,!climate!change,!and!the!future!of!Hawaiian! honeycreepers.!Journal!of!Avian!Medicine!and!Surgery!23:53–63.! Banko!PC,!Hess!SC,!Scowcroft!PG,!Farmer!C,!et!al.!2014.!Evaluating!the!longGterm!management!of! introduced!ungulates!to!protect!the!palila,!an!endangered!bird,!and!Its!critical!habitat!in! subalpine!forest!of!Mauna!Kea,!Hawai‘i.!Arctic,!Antarctic,!and!Alpine!Research!46:871–889.!
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Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 20! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
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Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 23! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
Hawaiian,Islands,Climate,Synthesis,Project:, Vulnerability,Assessment,Methods,and,Application,
Defining,Terms, Exposure:!A!measure!of!how!much!of!a!change!in!climate!or!climateGdriven!factors!a!resource!is! likely!to!experience!(Glick!et!al.!2011)., Sensitivity:!A!measure!of!whether!and!how!a!resource!is!likely!to!be!affected!by!a!given!change! in!climate!or!factors!driven!by!climate!(Glick!et!al.!2011)., Adaptive,Capacity:!The!ability!of!a!resource!to!accommodate!or!cope!with!climate!change! impacts!with!minimal!disruption!(Glick!et!al.!2011)., Vulnerability:!A!function!of!the!sensitivity!of!a!particular!resource!to!climate!changes,!its! exposure!to!those!changes,!and!its!capacity!to!adapt!to!those!changes!(IPCC!2007).!!
Vulnerability,Assessment,Model, The!vulnerability!assessment!model!applied!in!this!process!was!developed!by!EcoAdapt2!(Hutto! et!al.!2015,!EcoAdapt!2014a,!EcoAdapt!2014b,!Kershner!2014),!and!includes!evaluations!of! relative!vulnerability!by!local!stakeholders!who!have!detailed!knowledge!about!and/or! expertise!in!the!ecology,!management,!and!threats!to!focal!habitats!and!ecosystem!services.! Stakeholders!evaluated!vulnerability!of!each!resource!by!discussing!and!answering!a!series!of! questions!for!sensitivity!and!adaptive!capacity.!Habitat!exposure!was!evaluated!by!EcoAdapt! using!future!climate!projections!from!the!scientific!literature;!ecosystem!service!exposure!was! evaluated!by!workshop!participants!using!the!climate!impacts!table!provided!by!EcoAdapt.!Each! vulnerability!component!(i.e.!sensitivity,!adaptive!capacity,!and!exposure)!was!divided!into! specific!elements.!For!example,!habitats!included!three!elements!for!assessing!sensitivity!and! five!elements!for!adaptive!capacity.!Elements!for!each!vulnerability!component!are!described!in! more!detail!below.!! ! Stakeholders!assigned!one!of!five!rankings!(High,!ModerateGhigh,!Moderate,!LowGmoderate,!or! Low)!for!sensitivity!and!adaptive!capacity.!StakeholderGassigned!rankings!for!each!component! were!then!converted!into!scores!(HighG5,!ModerateGhighG4,!ModerateG3,!LowGmoderateG2,!or! LowG1)!and!the!scores!averaged!(mean)!to!generate!an!overall!score.!For!example,!scores!for! each!element!of!habitat!sensitivity!were!averaged!to!generate!an!overall!habitat!sensitivity! score.!Scores!for!exposure!were!weighted!less!than!scores!for!sensitivity!and!adaptive!capacity;! this!was!due!to!greater!uncertainty!about!the!magnitude!and!rate!of!future!change.!Sensitivity,! adaptive!capacity,!and!exposure!scores!were!combined!into!an!overall!vulnerability!score! calculated!as:! ! ! Vulnerability,=,[(Climate,Exposure*0.5),x,Sensitivity],$,Adaptive,Capacity,
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! 2!Sensitivity!and!adaptive!capacity!elements!were!informed!by!Glick!et!al.!2011,!Manomet!Center!for!Conservation! Sciences!2013,!and!Lawler!2010.! Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 24! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
! Elements!for!each!component!of!vulnerability!were!also!assigned!one!of!three!confidence! rankings!(High,!Moderate,!or!Low).!Confidence!rankings!were!converted!into!scores!(HighG3,! ModerateG2,!or!LowG1)!and!the!scores!averaged!(mean)!to!generate!an!overall!confidence! score.!These!approximate!confidence!levels!were!based!on!the!Manomet!Center!for! Conservation!Sciences!(2013)!3Gcategory!scale,!which!collapsed!the!5Gcategory!scale!developed! by!Moss!and!Schneider!(2000)!for!the!IPCC!Third!Assessment!Report.!The!vulnerability! assessment!model!applied!here!assesses!the!confidence!associated!with!individual!element! rankings,!and!uses!these!rankings!to!estimate!the!overall!level!of!confidence!for!each! component!of!vulnerability!as!well!as!overall!vulnerability.! ! Rankings!and!scores!presented!should!be!considered!measures!of!relative!vulnerability!and! confidence!(i.e.!comparing!the!level!of!vulnerability!between!the!focal!resources!evaluated!in! this!project).! ! Vulnerability!and!confidence!rankings!and!scores!for!a!given!element!were!supplemented!with! information!from!the!scientific!literature.!The!final!vulnerability!assessment!summaries!for!a! given!resource!include!stakeholderGassigned!rankings,!confidence!evaluations,!and!narratives! summarizing!expert!opinions!and!information!from!the!scientific!literature.!!
Habitat,&,Ecosystem,Service,Elements, Sensitivity'&'Exposure'(Applies'to'Habitats'and'Ecosystem'Services)' 1.,Climate,and,Climate$Driven,Factors:,e.g.,!air!temperature,!precipitation,!freshwater! temperature,!sea!surface!temperature,!sea!level!rise,!soil!moisture,!altered!streamflows,!etc.! 2.,Disturbance,Regimes:,e.g.,!wildfire,!flooding,!drought,!insect!and!disease!outbreaks,!wind,! etc.!! 3.,Future,Climate,Exposure:,e.g.,!consideration!of!projected!future!climate!changes!(e.g.,! temperature!and!precipitation)!as!well!as!climateGdriven!changes!(e.g.,!altered!fire!regimes,! altered!flow!regimes,!shifts!in!vegetation!types).!Experts!were!provided!with!a!summary!of! historical,!current,!and!projected!future!climate!changes!for!the!main!Hawaiian!Islands. 4.,Non$Climate,Stressors:,e.g.,!landGuse!conversion!(e.g.,!residential!or!commercial! development),!agriculture!and/or!aquaculture,!transportation!corridors!(e.g.,!roads,!railroads,! trails),!water!diversions,!invasive!and!other!problematic!species,!pollution!and!poisons,!etc.!For! nonGclimate!stressors,!experts!were!asked!to!evaluate!sensitivity,!whether!the!habitat!or! ecosystem!service!is!currently!exposed!to!that!stressor,!and!whether!the!pattern!of!exposure!is! widespread!and/or!consistent!across!the!study!area!or!is!highly!localized!(e.g.,!exposure!to! aquaculture!is!highly!localized!but!exposure!to!invasive!grasses!is!often!widespread).! Adaptive'Capacity'(Habitats)' 1.,Extent,and,Integrity:,e.g.,!habitats!that!occur!in!multiple!locations!vs.!single,!small!areas;! high!integrity!vs.!degraded!habitats!! 2.,Habitat,Isolation:,e.g.,!adjacent!to!other!native!habitat!types!vs.!isolated!habitats,!barriers!to! dispersal!(e.g.,!development,!energy!productions,!roads,!water!diversions,!etc.)!,
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 25! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018! !
3.,Resistance,and,Recovery:,e.g.,!resistance!refers!to!the!stasis!of!a!habitat!in!the!face!of! change,!recovery!refers!to!the!ability!to!“bounce!back”!more!quickly!from!stressors!once!they! do!occur!, 4.,Habitat,Diversity:,e.g.,!diversity!of!component!native!species!and!functional!groups!in!the! habitat!! 5.,Management,Potential:,e.g.,!ability!of!resource!managers!to!alter!the!adaptive!capacity!and! resilience!of!a!habitat!to!climatic!and!nonGclimate!stressors!(societal!value!of!habitats,!ability!to! alleviate!impacts)! Adaptive'Capacity'(Ecosystem'Services)' 1.,Intrinsic,Value,and,Management,Potential:,e.g.,!ability!of!managers!to!alter!the!adaptive! capacity!and!resilience!of!a!service!to!climatic!and!nonGclimate!stressors!(societal!value!of! ecosystem!services,!ability!to!alleviate!impacts)! , Literature,Cited, EcoAdapt.!2014a.!A!climate!change!vulnerability!assessment!for!aquatic!resources!in!the!Tongass! National!Forest.!EcoAdapt,!Bainbridge!Island,!WA.! EcoAdapt.!2014b.!A!climate!change!vulnerability!assessment!for!resources!of!Nez!PerceGClearwater! National!Forests.!Version!3.0.!EcoAdapt,!Bainbridge!Island,!WA.! Glick!P,!Stein!BA,!Edelson!NA.!2011.!Scanning!the!conservation!horizon:!A!guide!to!climate!change! vulnerability!assessment.!National!Wildlife!Federation,!Washington,!D.C.! Hutto!SV,!Higgason!KD,!Kershner!JM,!Reynier!WA,!Gregg!DS.!2015.!Climate!change!vulnerability! assessment!for!the!northGcentral!California!coast!and!ocean.!Page!473.!ONMSG15G02,!Marine! Sanctuaries!Conservation!Series.!U.S.!Department!of!Commerce,!National!Oceanic!and! Atmospheric!Administration,!Office!of!National!Marine!Sanctuaries,!Silver!Spring,!MD.! Intergovernmental!Panel!on!Climate!Change!(IPCC).!2014.!Climate!Change!2007:!Impacts,!Adaptation! and!Vulnerability.!Contribution!of!Working!Group!II!to!the!Fourth!Assessment!Report!of!the! Intergovernmental!Panel!on!Climate!Change.!Cambridge!University!Press,!Cambridge,!UK.! Kershner!JM,!editor.!2014.!A!climate!change!vulnerability!assessment!for!focal!resources!of!the!Sierra! Nevada.!Version!1.0.!EcoAdapt,!Bainbridge!Island,!WA.! Lawler!J.!2010.!Pacific!Northwest!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment.!Available!from! http://climatechangesensitivity.org/.! Manomet!Center!for!Conservation!Science,!National!Wildlife!Federation.!2013.!The!vulnerabilities!of!fish! and!wildlife!habitats!in!the!Northeast!to!climate!change.!A!report!to!the!Northeastern! Association!of!Fish!and!Wildlife!Agencies!and!the!North!Atlantic!Landscape!Conservation! Cooperative.!Manomet!Center!for!Conservation!Sciences,!Plymouth,!MA.! Moss!R,!Schneider!S.!2000.!Towards!consistent!assessment!and!reporting!of!uncertainties!in!the!IPCC! TAR.!In!R.!Pachauri!and!T.!Taniguchi,!editors.!CrossGcutting!issues!in!the!IPCC!Third!Assessment! Report.!Global!Industrial!and!Social!Progress!Research!Institute!(for!IPCC),!Tokyo.! ,
Hawai‘i!Climate!Change!Vulnerability!Assessment!for!the!Hawaiian!Islands!Climate!Synthesis!Project! 26! Copyright!EcoAdapt!2018!