Running head: VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 1
Vehicle to Bicycle Communication
Kevin Frazier, Tim Neumann, Michelle Posch,Khaled Al Qubaisi
American University
Professor Mortati
ITEC-200-005
VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 2
Executive Summary
Vehicle to Bicycle (V2B) communication is an emerging technology that is expected to improve bicycle safety standards and reduce the number of death tolls caused by motor-bicycle accidents. Every year more than 5000 bicycle riders die in avoidable road accidents in the United
States due to the poor safety features that are implemented in most bicycles sold in the market today. The Vehicle to Bicycle communication technology provides an opportunity for bicycle manufacturers to completely transform their products by making bicycles smarter and more integrated thus increasing the overall safety features of the bicycles in metropolitan cities. In this report we explain why GIANT Bicycles, Incorporated should break ground and establish the market for bicycles that can communicate with the vehicles they share the road with. By taking the existing technology that enables Vehicle to Vehicle communication and applying it to road bikes, GIANT will be positioning itself to protect its customers from dangerous vehicle-bicycle collisions, as well securing a dominant share of the emerging Vehicle to Everything market.
Initial sales of the Vehicle to Bicycle communication will be focused in Los Angeles, California and Portland, Oregon—the most dangerous and most popular cities, respectively, for cycling.The
V2B technology will be implemented on GIANT’s Escape Line model since it is the model that is most used by bicycle riders in metropolitan cities. After establishing and growing the market for these “smart” bikes, the company will be on the bleeding edge of the $622 billion dollar per year Vehicle to Everything industry, and will be properly positioned to receive a strong ROI of
36% ,which higher than the industry average of 20%.
VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 3
Technology Description
While walking down the sidewalk, you avoid collisions with other people on the sidewalk with you by speaking to them—letting them know you are coming up from behind them or saying “excuse me” when you would like to pass them but there is not enough space. The advent of Vehicle to Vehicle communication (V2V) allows cars and trucks on surface streets or highways to do the same thing: talk to each other. V2V is technology that allows vehicles to communicate their position, velocity, and direction of acceleration to other vehicles in their vicinity. By starting a conversation amongst cars, the Intelligent Transportation Systems division of the United States Department of Transportation estimates that 1.04 million crashes in the past year between two or more vehicles could have been beneficially affected by Vehicle to Vehicle communication.
How It Works
In order to be able to participate in the conversation, a vehicle needs four components: 1. Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) radio 2. Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver 3. Computer processor 4. User Interface Optional: Inertial Measurement Unit
The main functionality of the technology is achieved through the usage of the Dedicated
Short-Range Communications (DSRC) radio, which is a two-way wireless communication method that can operate at distances up to 300 meters, or 984 feet. This range can vary, depending on surroundings and weather conditions—in enclosed spaces or mountainous terrain, areas with high amounts of radio frequency traffic, and cloudy weather conditions, the range VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 4
would be decreased. “DSRC…permits very high data transmission critical in communications-based active safety applications. In Report and Order FCC-03-324, the Federal
Communications Commission (FCC) allocated 75 MHz of spectrum in the 5.9 GHz band for use by Intelligent Transportations Systems (ITS) vehicle safety and mobility applications”(Sill, S., n.d.). Up to 10 times per second, Basic Safety Messages (BSMs) are sent between vehicles equipped with V2V technology via DSRC. Data in a BSM is composed of vehicle speed, current position and a predicted trajectory, all of which is determined by the GPS receiver. Once collected by a vehicle, the BSMs are analyzed by the computer processor to determine the likelihood of a collision, and to relay the position of surrounding vehicles to the driver via a display screen. If a BSM signals that a collision is likely, a warning is issued to the driver via the user interface and/or an audio transmission (see Appendix A for visual representation of the communication process). The Intelligent Transportation Systems division of the United States
Department of Transportation concludes that “[a]t a minimum, V2V devices would require two
DSRC radios and a GPS receiver with a processor to derive information such as vehicle speed and predicted path from the device’s GPS data”(Harding, J., et al., 2014, pg. 89).
VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 5
GIANT Bicycles
GIANT is the world's largest bicycle manufacturer in the world and is headquartered in
Taiwan (Ramzy,2013). They manufactures bicycles for almost every known bicycle brand in the world such as Trek, Scott and Colnago (Ramzy,2013). According to Statista, almost 99% of bicycles sold in the U.S. are imported from China and Taiwan (Laporte,2017). Not only do
GIANT manufacture a huge percentage of bicycles to retailers in the U.S, but they also sell their own bicycles under their brand name (S,2016). According to the latest reports, GIANT’s own bicycle brand has more than 10% Market Share thus making it the company with the second largest market share in the bicycle market (S,2016).
Finding the Ideal City for Implementation
Research Criteria
The bicycle V2V communication technology must be implemented and tested in a city that has a high bicycle population. In addition, we must also narrow down our list of cities based on the number of severe bicycle accidents that occur per year. This strategy will allow us to identify a city and then do further analysis to find the reasons and severity of these accidents, and to calculate the efficiency of the preventive measures used to avoid them. After that we would VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 6
try to identify the collision accidents that happen between cars and bicycles to hypothetically measure the usefulness of a V2V technology in such scenarios. Finally, after we identify potential cities that have high bicycle populations and high road collision accidents that are above the national average, then we would pick the top two potential cities that qualify for the bicycle V2V technology.
Los Angeles
The city of Los Angeles could be considered as one of the most highly dense cities in the
United States. According to the Los Angeles Bike and Pedestrian Count Report, bicycles ridership has increased by 26% in 2013 (L,2015). In addition, based on a report from The Los
Angeles Department Of City Planning, bicyclists represent 0.62% of the city traffic with an average of 40,000 daily commuters in 2010.(L,2010). Today, the National Highway Traffic And
Safety Administration have estimated that around 160,000 people bike to work daily in the city of Los Angeles (NHTSA, 2017). This report clearly shows that the number of bikers have quadrupled in the past ten years and that the population of Los Angeles are becoming more dependent on bicycles as a mean of transportation.
Furthermore, The Bicycle and Pedestrian Counts Manual of 2013 have stated that 20% of all trips are on foot or by bike and that 39 percent of roadway fatalities in LA County are pedestrians or cyclists (S, 2013). This suggests that the bicyclist population in Los Angeles is following a positive increasing trend and that it could be a potential city to test the newly developed V2V Bicycle communication technology.
While Los Angeles does not have large bicycle populations such as New York , it is known for having the highest number of bicycle accident occurrences in the United States. The VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 7
city plans to become a bike friendly city with the installation of 1,600 miles of bikeways over the next 30 years (Littlejohn, D., & Torrance, C., 2013).Even with improved infrastructures, LA will still remain a dangerous city for cyclists, since it continues to have the largest traffic congestion levels in the U.S (S, 2017). According to Jerry Hirsch, a specialist in the automotive industry,
Los Angeles is the most dangerous city for bicyclists were more than 400 have lost their lives last year, the highest total rate in the United States (Hirsch,2017). Hirsch points out that U.S. bicyclist deaths increased by 16% and that they account for more than 5% of deaths involving motor vehicles nationwide. Moreover, a report by The Bicycle Friendly Community League states that the city of Los Angeles has scored below the national average in bike safety measures in the year 2017 (B,2017). The report also states that the number of bicycle crashes in Los
Angeles is twice the national average with around 1100 crashes per year (B,2017). The data clearly shows that the city of Los Angeles has a major issue regarding motor and bicycle accidents. This issue represents an opportunity for us to test the effectiveness of V2V communication technology in reducing the number of accidents caused by cars and bicycles.
Business Impact
What Giant is Currently Doing or Not Doing Well :
Summary:
- Using the Latest Mechanical and Manufacturing Technologies to Reduce Costs (Pro+)
- Investing too little in the latest I.T Related Technologies (Con-)
Analysis: VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 8
According to the latest reports from GIANT, the company is currently working on implementing new technologies such as the Advanced Composite Tech that would help the company reduce their costs by using affordable carbon fiber frames to make their bikes
(G,2017). In addition, the company has recently implemented the Hybrid Cycling technology that “combines electric power with human power to produce the most efficient, powerful and natural E-bike riding experience.” (G,2017). Moreover, GIANT'S latest bikes contain Carbon
Nanotube Technology (CNT) which makes the frames 14% more impact-resistant than those without it. CoMax Composite Technology framesets are lighter than comparable aluminium framesets that make bikes faster and easily maneuverable.(G,2017) .It is clear that GIANT investment in the latest mechanical technologies would reduce production costs and would generally improve the rider’s comfort level. On the other hand, the company has invested too little in electronic gadgets which is the usually the norm for most bicycle manufacturers around the world. Moreover,Just like it’s competitors, GIANT has highly invested in manufacturing different types of bikes that would be suitable for every enthusiast and adventure loving person out there.(G,2017). GIANT currently offers more than ten different unique bike types ranging from your typical on-road comfort bicycle to the newly developed E-bike which features hybrid cycling technology (G,2017).
In the annual Eurobike show of 2017, which is the world's biggest cycling trade show, most companies have only revealed advanced mechanical technologies with no plans in implementing any I.T related technologies in their latest bikes.(B,2017). This clearly shows that most bicycle companies do not realize the significance of implementing any form of smart technology features in their products. Currently, GIANT has not yet invested in any form of VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 9
smart technology regarding safety or bicycle development. While most bike companies are avoiding smart technologies for now, companies such as GIANT aspire to become one of the most impactful and innovative in finding solutions to pollution, health and city development through manufacturing top tier bikes (Ramzy,2013). This clearly suggests that even though
GIANT is a humongous company, they are very welcoming towards ideas and concepts that would result in the development of new and innovative methods that would improve the safety of their products.
Problems the IT solves
Bicycle to Vehicle communications is specifically designed to solve the issue of motor vehicle - bicycle accidents. More than 5000 people die annually due to pedestrian accidents that involves bicycle riders (H,2016). In other words, motor-bicycle accidents contribute to almost
15% of road death tolls in the United States (Editors,2010). To solve this major issue, Bicycle to
Vehicle communication would detect surrounding motor vehicles in the street thus allowing the biker and the car driver to avoid direct collision.
Increased Revenue:
By implementing the V2B technology, the company would mainly benefit in terms of increased revenue. The implementation would make bikes safer and therefore people would be willing to pay for increased safety. VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 10
Revenue (Road bikes without V2B): Revenue (Road bikes with V2B):
Price: $500/bike (see Appendix D) Price: $750/bike (see Appendix D)
Units sold:27,000 (see Appendix B) Units sold:27,000 (see Appendix B)
Total revenue:$13,500,000 Total Revenue:$20,250,000
By multiplying the price times units sold, we were able to get the revenue.
Increase in Revenue: $6,750,000
Revenue Outlook (for Industry):
Revenue (in millions of Growth (in Year dollars) %)
2018 899.6 0.9
2019 908.7 1.0
2020 916.9 0.9
2021 923.9 0.8
2022 932.1 0.9
2023 941.1 1.0
By looking at the industry outlook, we can see that revenue is expected by approximately 1% for the next six years (IbisWorld, 2017). It is hard to predict how many more units the company will VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 11
sell after implementing the technology in road bikes in Los Angeles. By assuming that the company increases their sales by 1% in this city, they could make an extra revenue of about
200,000 dollars.
Increased Profits:
Next to increased revenue, Giant would also benefit in terms of increased profits by implementing the new technology.
Profit (without V2B): Profit (with V2B):
Profit Margin: $100 (Appendix D) Profit Margin: $150 (see Appendix D)
Units sold: 27,000(Appendix B) Units sold: 27,000
Total profits:$2,700,000 Total revenue:$4,050,000
Increase in profits: $1,350,000
Return on Investment:
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the unit cost of V2V technology per vehicle will begin to decrease after the third year of implementation. Giant has the potential to improve its current profit margin (of 20.67%) after the third year of adoption. A learning curve VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 12
will result in decreased profit margins and an increased cost of production until year 3. Cost of production will then decrease by approximately $1 every year before reaching plateau ($155) at year 40. The profit margin, for a bike containing V2V technology, will continue to increase when the price is kept constant.
Giant’s ROI of manufacturing a bike with V2V technology will be higher than the company’s current ROI of 26% associated with bikes without the technology. After the learning period, ROI will increase until reaching plateau (36%) at year 40.
Increased Value Through Progress:
The value of V2V technology for Giant will increase as the United States moves towards standardization and regulation of V2X solutions. V2V systems qualify as motor vehicle equipment, allowing the NHTSA to mandate their installation in new motor vehicles. The
NHTSA has a 3 year plan to phase in the regulation. 50% of new vehicles complying with the rule at the end of year one, 75% at the end of year 2, and 100% a the end of year 3 (NHTSA,
2017). The technology’s progress rate will also increase its value for Giant. The NHTSA predicts that the progress rate will more than double after 3 years of implementation. VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 13
Conclusion
By recognizing the potential of Vehicle to Bicycle Communication and implementing the technology in their bicycles, Giant Manufacturing Company will experience a creation of new value for their customers, increases in both profit and revenue, and will be welcomed in to the era of the Internet of Things. Creating a method for their Escape line of bicycles (the most popular of their products amongst cyclists in cities) to communicate with the vehicles with which they share the road will decrease the potential of collisions between cyclists and vehicles. For customers, this will increase the value of the bicycle because, on top of taking them from point A to point B, the bicycle will now help to protect them. Due to this added value, sales revenue will increase by $11,000,000 - $24,500,000—a possible increase of 88%. This increase in revenue will drive profits up by $2,200,000 - $4,700,000—a possible increase of 84%. Beyond the added value for customers and the positive impact on the bottom line, adding this technology to their bicycles would bring Giant into the era of the Internet of Things and introduce an avenue for the company to continue to succeed in a future of connected devices. For a limited amount of risk—implementing Vehicle to Bicycle communication in the Escape line of bicycles and focusing marketing toward cyclists in Los Angeles—Giant Manufacturing Company will establish itself as the bicycle manufacturer of the future and enjoy a steady return on their investment.
VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 14
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-more-than-doubled-64600 VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 18
Appendices
Appendix A
Visual Representation of Vehicle to Bicycle Communication Process
VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 19
Appendix B Computation of Units sold and Assumptions
Revenue Outlook (for Industry):
Revenue (in millions of Growth (in Year dollars) %)
2018 899.6 0.9
2019 908.7 1.0 VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 20
2020 916.9 0.9
2021 923.9 0.8
2022 932.1 0.9
2023 941.1 1.0
Assumptions: 1. Sales and revenue increase by the same rate (1%). 20.2 Million bikes were sold in 2015 and by using a constant increase of 1%, 20.6 Million bikes will be sold in 2018. 2. We assume that the percentage of road bikes will remain constant at 20%. 3. We assume that Giant increases its market share by 0.2% per year.
Bikes sold without V2B: 1) Total units sold (2018): 20,600,000 2) Bicycles sold in LA: 6% (4 million bikes used in LA/65 million bikes used in US) 3) Units sold in LA: 1,236,000 4) Giant market share: 11% 5) Giant bikes sold in LA: (3) x (4) = 136,000 6) Road bike percentage: 20% 7) Giant road bikes sold in LA: 27,000
Appendix C V2V Cost and Progress Rate by Year
VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 21
Appendix D Retail Price Without V2V and Retail Price With V2V
Current $500 RETAIL PRICE $750 RETAIL PRICE
Appendix E Calculations of Cost to Produce, Profit Margin, ROI
Calculation of Cost to Produce: Cost to produce current $500 Giant Escape line bike = $395.65 Cost to Produce = $395.65 + Cost of V2V per bike Calculation of Profit Margin: VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 22
Profit / Retail Price Calculation of Profit: Retail Price ($750) - Cost to Produce Calculation of ROI: ROI= (Gain from Investment-Cost of Investment)/(Cost of Investment)
Appendix F Second Choice of City to Implement Technology Portland
For many years, the state of Oregon had been successful in their vision of making bicycling one of the most accessible and convenient method of transportation in the city of
Portland (T, 2017). According to the annual bicycle count report of the city of Portland, there are more than 190,000 daily bicycle trips (T, 2017). According to Ian Dille, a researcher and specialist in pedestrian transportation, the city of Portland is experiencing a dramatic increase in annual bicycle population size which is considerably higher than the national average(Dille,2016). After much research, we found out that most cities have followed a predictive and slow trend regarding the positive increase of bicyclists on the streets.The city of
Portland was an extraordinary exception where the percentage of residents who commute by bike have increased by 27 percent between 2013 and 2014 which is an increase of 7.2 percent in the total bicyclist population(Dille,2016). Another important aspect was measuring the number of people who used bicycles as their main mode of transportation in this metropolitan city. After further research, it turns out that more than 7.2% of commuters in Portland use bikes as the main means of transportation which is higher than the national average of 0.5%(T,2016). According to a report from my Assettag.com, a retailer company that sells barcode tags, show that Portland has more than 38,000 daily bike commuters and has the second highest proportion of commuters VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 23
traveling by bike to work in the U.S (Myassettag,2017).According to a report published by the
Highway Safety Research Centre, more than 5,000 people were killed in pedestrian/motor vehicle crashes every year(H,2016). The number of road deaths that occured in Portland were
319 with 15 of those deaths caused by bicycle-motor vehicle accidents in 2013(Maus,2013).
The NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) stated that more than 71% of motor vehicle and bike accidents happen in urban areas with deaths caused by Motor-Vehicles and Bikes increasing by 12.2% since the previous year (N, 2017). The high death toll due to bicycle accidents in urban areas such as Los Angeles and Portland is a very worrying phenomenon which presents us with an opportunity to further improve safety features of bicycles in metropolitan cities .
Graph From Insurance Institute Of Highway Safety 2015 Report VEHICLE TO BICYCLE COMMUNICATION 24
In summary, Portland has one of the largest bicycle populations in the United States and with the highest dependency on bicycles as the main mode of transportation. In addition, trends point out that the number of bicycle accidents is slowly increasing and that most of the preemptive measures that are currently used are not effective enough to reduce the annual number of accidents in the city of Portland.