50 Reasons Why Anwar Cannot Become Prime Minister, 208, 213

Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-74438-6 - Economic Crises and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes: Indonesia and Malaysia in Comparative Perspective Thomas B. Pepinsky Index More information

Index

50 Reasons Why Anwar Cannot coalitions and, 3, 16–17, 19, 265 Become Prime Minister, 208, economic interests and, 3, 20, 264 213 in Indonesia, 118 Abdul Rahim Noor, 201, 211–13 in Malaysia, 119–54 Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, 192, 208, in Mexico. See Mexico, 1982 crisis, 211, 222 policy response to; Mexico, 1994 Abdurrahman Wahid, 155, 187 crisis, policy response to ABRI and regime survival, 4, 8–9. See also business interests, 46–47, 52, 172–73 economic crises, and regime and democratization, 191. See also change TNI theory of, 16–20, 36–39 factionalism, 50–51, 162, 163, 174, theories of, 4–7 177, 179, 186 during twin crises, 22–32. See also and fixed capital, 47, 52, 61, 173, twin crises, solutions to 182, 184, 186 in Uruguay. See Uruguay, financial and models of New Order politics, crisis, policy response to 78–79, 80 Affifudin Omar, 141, 200, 201 and patronage, 44, 45–46, 60 Ahmad Mohd. Don, 131, 151, 203, personnel rotation in, 45 211 relationships to ethnic Chinese, 47, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, 74, 205, 207–8, 53, 56–57, 59, 60–61, 184 210, 213 and rise of New Order, 17, 42–43 Ali Abul Hassan Sulaiman, 132, 212 and social order, 44, 47, 183 Allende, Salvador, 239, 242 support for Soeharto, 169, 170, 175, Alliance. See BN, formation of 179–80 Alternative Front. See BA adjustment policy, 2, 3–4 Amanah Saham Bumiputra. See ASB in Argentina. See Argentina, financial Amanah Saham Nasional. See ASN crisis, policy response to Amien Rais, 160, 170, 175, 185 in Chile. See Chile, financial crisis, Angkatan Bersenjata Republik policy response to Indonesia. See ABRI

313

© Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-74438-6 - Economic Crises and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes: Indonesia and Malaysia in Comparative Perspective Thomas B. Pepinsky Index More information

314 Index

Anwar Ibrahim capital controls and. See allegations of sexual impropriety, democratization, and capital 203, 208–9, 213 controls arrest and trial, 213–14, 215 cross-national patterns, 34–35, criticisms of, 195, 214, 217 226–37 and IMF. See IMF, and Malaysia, economic crises and. See economic initial policy similarities crises, and regime change and NEAC. See NEAC, and Anwar in Indonesia, 2, 274 Ibrahim existing theories of, 156–66 ouster, 211–13 in Latin America, 263, 268 relationship with Mahathir theory of, 3–4, 8–9, 14–15, 18–20, Mohamad. See Mahathir 30–32, 36–39, 271–74 Mohamad, relationship with Anwar Ibrahim BA, 193, 276 rise to power, 199 coherence of, 196, 217, 218 role in adjustment policy. See electoral disadvantages, 216–17, adjustment policy, in Malaysia 218 ties to Malay entrepreneurs, 70, 76 electoral results, 220–22 and UMNO Youth, 207–8. See also formation, 215 UMNO, Youth wing and patronage system, 197 Apkindo, 87, 89 platform, 216, 217 Arab-Malaysian Group, 73, 134, 139 Badan Intelijen Strategis. See Bais Argentina, 12 Badan Kordinasi Intelijen Negara. See capital inflows, 244–45 Bakin coalition structure, 17, 243–45 Badan Penyangga dan Pemasaran financial crisis Cengkeh. See BPPC policy response to, 247 Badan Urusan Logistik. See Bulog and regime collapse, 245, 247 Badan Usaha Milik Negara. See Armed Forces of Indonesia. See ABRI BUMN ASB, 66 bahaya laten komunisme. See payouts during Malaysia’s crisis, balatkom 141–42 Bais, 51 Asian Development Bank, 138 Bakin, 51 ASN, 66 Bakrie & Brothers, 55 payouts during Malaysia’s crisis, Bakrie, Aburizal, 54, 55, 93, 98, 112, 142 169, 191 Asosiasi Panel Kayu Indonesia. See Bakun Dam, 124, 125, 126 Apkindo balance-of-payments crisis. See asset specificity. See capital mobility exchange rates, crises Astra International, 55, 57, 59 balatkom, 187 Austral Plan, 247 Bambang Trihatmodjo, 54, 55, 101 authoritarian breakdowns Bank Bumiputra Malaysia Bhd. See absence in Malaysia, 2, 192–94 BBMB existing theories of, 193–98 Bank Central Asia, 96, 97, 104, 181, adjustment policy and. See 187 adjustment policy, and regime Bank Indonesia. See BI survival Bank Indonesia Certificates. See SBI

Index 315

Bank Indonesia liquidity support. See unity during Malaysia’s crisis, 193, BLBI 197, 200, 201, 202, 205, 216 Bank Negara Malaysia. See BNM BNM, 130–32, 135, 138, 144, 200 Bank Umum Nasional, 97, 104 opposition to adjustment policy, banking crises, 20. See also twin crises 131–32, 151, 203, 211–12 Bantuan Likuiditas Bank Indonesia. Boix, Carles, 272 See BLBI Borneo. See East Malaysia Barisan Alternatif. See BA BPPC, 87, 89 Barisan Nasional. See BN Bratton, Michael, 273 Bates, Robert H., 272 Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, 268 Bawazier, Fuad, 104, 112, 113, 115, Bulog, 46, 48, 87, 89 178, 265 bumiputra BBMB, 135, 137, 138 deﬁnition of, 61 Bellin, Eva, 268, 272 favoritism in public policy. See Berdikari, 46 adjustment policy, in Malaysia; Berjaya Group, 76 Malay supremacy Berkeley Maﬁa, 43–44 overlap with Malay, 61–62 BI, 82, 91–93, 94, 96–97, 99, 100, underdevelopment of, 62 105–9 BUMN, 46–47, 91 and bank closures, 99–102 Buy Malaysia campaign, 129, 146 and bank restructuring. See IBRA and banking policies during the Cameroon, 16, 33, 231 crisis, 99–105 capital account policy. See also liquidity support. See BLBI exchange rates; monetary policy personnel shakeups, 93, 102, 113, in Indonesia, 3, 58, 105–15, 117–18, 170–71, 177 176, 178 Bimantara, 111 in Malaysia, 2, 3, 143–52, 175, 192, BLBI, 96, 104–5 197, 203, 211, 212, 215, 216, BN, 62, 67, 68, 141, 152, 192, 193, 217 194, 195, 200, 203, 205, 206, logic of, 6, 23, 24, 26–30, 31, 32, 207, 211. See also Gerakan; 226, 264, 269–70. See also MCA; MIC; UMNO adjustment policy, during twin 1995 election results, 198 crises 1997 by-election results, 201–2 and regime survival. See 1999 election campaign, 216–18 democratization, and capital 1999 electoral results, 192, 220–22 controls electoral advantages, 197 capital controls. See capital account foreign criticisms of, 203 policy formation of, 63 capital liquidity legitimacy, 196 distinction from capital mobility, and Malaysia’s party system, 79 24–25 and patronage, 68, 69, 151, 196, capital mobility. See also capital 209 account policy and race relations, 205 and adjustment policy preferences, two-thirds majority. See DR, BN’s 26–30, 30–32 two-thirds majority in and authoritarianism, 271–72 UMNO domination of, 63 cross-national patterns in, 270

316 Index

capital mobility (cont.) and regime survival, 242 definition of, 24–26 Chinese (ethnic group in Southeast in Indonesia, 58–59. See also capital Asia) account policy, in Indonesia; in Indonesia Chinese (ethnic group in capital assets, 3, 25, 58–60, 173, Southeast Asia), in Indonesia, 190. See also konglomerat capital assets cronies, 2, 40, 41, 44, 45, 53–61, and adjustment policy. See 84, 265. See also ABRI, adjustment policy, in Indonesia; relationships to ethnic Chinese capital account policy, in discrimination against, 54, 57–58, Indonesia 111, 171, 174–75, 176, and regime survival. See 186–87, 276. See also media, in authoritarian breakdowns, in Indonesia, targeting of Chinese in Indonesia exodus, 3, 164, 173, 183–84, in Malaysia, 75–76. See also 186 adjustment policy, in Malaysia; history, 54 capital account policy, in violence against, 3, 43, 155, 156, Malaysia; Chinese (ethnic 167, 174, 182. See also May group in Southeast Asia), in 13–14 riots Malaysia, capital assets in Malaysia, and adjustment policy. See capital assets, 41, 76, 77, 150, adjustment policy, in Malaysia; 206, 121. See also UMNO, and capital account policy, in Chinese capital Malaysia discrimination against, 201, 206, and regime survival. See 223 authoritarian breakdowns, diversity among, 61 absence in Malaysia history, 63 Ca´rdenas, Cuauhte´moc, 257, 260 political organization. See DAP; Ca´rdenas, La´zaro, 251, 252, 257 Gerakan; MCA; MCP case selection, 9, 226 violence involving, 63, 218 Case, William, 196 Chinn, Menzie, 227, 229, 254, 269 causality, 3, 8–9, 11, 237. See also Chua, Christian, 57–58 coalitions, as causal variables, CLOB, 149 comparative method Clove Marketing Board. See BPPC CBS, 111–14. See also exchange rates, coalitions in Indonesia and adjustment policy. See CDRC, 138–139 adjustment policy, coalitions Central Limit Order Book. See CLOB and Chandra Muzaffar, 215 in Argentina. See Argentina, Chandra, Siddharth, 163 coalition structure Chicago Boys, 239–42, 244 as causal variables, 3–4, 6–7, 12–13, Chicago Road to Socialism, 242 14–15, 264, 266–67, 267–69, Chile, 12, 18, 34, 238 271, 272–73 capital inflows, 241 in Chile. See Chile, coalition coalition structure, 17, 239–40 structure financial crisis difficulty of changing, 16–17. See policy response to, 241–42 also commitment problems

Index 317

distributional conflict within, 6, debt 30–32, 265, 271 and adjustment policy preferences, in Indonesia, 42–61 26–32 in Malaysia, 61–77 and exchange rates, 21, 23 in Mexico. See PRI, changing in Indonesia, 84–87, 97, 107. See coalition of also financial policy, in origins of, 17–18, 41 Indonesia in Uruguay. See Uruguay, coalition in Malaysia, 121–22, 130. See also structure financial policy, in Malaysia Collier, Ruth, 255 Democratic Action Party. See DAP colonialism democratization and ethnic relations absence in Malaysia. See in Indonesia, 54 authoritarian breakdowns, in Malaysia, 62–63 absence in Malaysia scapegoating of, 119 and capital controls, 12, 276–78 Commerce Asset-Holdings, 72, 134, distinction from authoritarian 137 breakdowns, 274 commitment problems, 16–17, 18, 39, in Indonesia, 2, 155, 187–91 188, 272 depreciation. See exchange rates Communist Party of Indonesia. See PKI Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat. See DPR comparative method, 9–11, 225–26, Dewan Rakyat. See DR 237, 274 Diponegoro division, 56, 59 consociationalism in Malaysia, 79 Dooley, Michael, 276 coordination problems, 19, 38 DPR, 57, 169, 175, 181, 184, 189 Corporate Debt Restructuring DR, 198, 199, 267 Committee. See CDRC 1999 election results, 220–22 corruption, collusion, and nepotism BN’s two-thirds majority in, 67, 193, (also corruption, cronyism, and 196, 220, 223 nepotism). See KKN dwifungsi, 47 currency. See exchange rates Currency Board System. See CBS East Malaysia, political parties, 62, 76, currency crisis. See exchange rates, 198, 222 crises economic crises and economic adjustment, 5–7, 14–20 Daim Zainuddin, 70–74, 126, 127, and regime change, 8–9, 14–20, 273 205, 210, 212 economic growth Danaharta, 138–39 comparison of Indonesia and Danamodal Nasional Berhad, 138–39 Malaysia, 158 Danamon, 55, 97 consequences of twin crises for, 1, 34 DAP, 142, 151, 197, 199, 202, 204–5, under New Order, 43 215, 216 Egypt, 16, 18, 33, 271 1999 electoral results, 222 Ekran, 73, 76, 125 Chinese constituency of, 62, 217, 218 elections social democratic platform, 62, 67, and authoritarianism, 8, 31 195 in Indonesia, 79, 158, 184 de la Madrid Hurtado, Miguel, 251, 1997 DPR elections, 159, 162, 253–57 166–68

318 Index

elections (cont.) financial policy. See also monetary 1998 MPR session. See MPR, policy March 1998 session in Indonesia, 94–105 1999 DPR elections, 189 logic of, 22, 23, 24, 29–30 in Malaysia, 64, 67, 79, 192. See also in Malaysia, 133–43 UMNO, electoral checks on financieras, 245, 241 1969 election and its aftermath, fiscal policy 63, 196 in Indonesia, 2, 87–88, 89–91 1990 parliamentary elections, 197 logic of, 22, 23, 24, 29–30, 31, 1995 parliamentary elections, 32 198 in Malaysia, 2, 124–29 1997 by-elections, 201–2 fixed capital. See also capital mobility 1999 parliamentary elections, in Argentina, 245. See also 197, 216–22 Argentina, coalition structure Employees Provident Fund. See EPF in Chile, 240, 241. See also Chile, EPF, 134, 136–37, 138, 139, 142–43 coalition structure ethnicity. See bumiputra; Chinese definition of. See capital mobility, (ethnic group in Southeast definition of Asia); colonialism, and ethnic in Indonesia, 3, 40, 40–41, 45–52. relations; Indians (ethnic group See also ABRI; pribumi in Southeast Asia); Malay and adjustment policy. See supremacy; pribumi adjustment policy, in Indonesia exchange rates ethnic Chinese owners of, 59 and banking crises. See twin crises and regime change. See crises, 20. See also twin crises authoritarian breakdowns, in and debt, 26–28, 86–87, 121–22 Indonesia depreciation of, 22 in Malaysia, 3, 40, 69–74. See also effect of baht float on, 84, 121 UMNO, and fixed capital and exports, 5, 26, 109–10, 145 and adjustment policy. See in Indonesia, 105–115. See also CBS; adjustment policy, in Malaysia Love the Rupiah movement ethnic Chinese owners of, and interest rates, 23, 24. See also 75–76 adjustment policy, during twin and regime survival. See crises authoritarian breakdowns, in Indonesia, 92–93 absence in Malaysia in Malaysia, 130 in Mexico, 252, 253, 254, 256–57, in Malaysia, 143–52, 212 259, 259–60 policy preferences, 6, 31 preferences over adjustment policy, and portfolio capital flows, 123–24 7, 14–15, 26–30, 31, 264 precrisis vulnerability, 9 in Uruguay, 249. See also Uruguay, in Indonesia, 86–87 coalition structure in Malaysia, 130 flying letters. See surat layang Fong Weng Phak, 131, 151, 211 Falklands War. See Malvinas War Frankel, Jeffrey, 81 Feisal Tanjung, 51, 170, 174, 175, 176, Frieden, Jeffry, 240, 261 178 Fund for Bumiputra Entrepreneurs, FELDA, 65 121, 128

Index 319

Geddes, Barbara, 19 ICMI, 167 Gerakan, 62, 150, 205, 221 IMF Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia. See and Chile, 238 Gerakan economists’ criticisms of, 23–24 Gerakan Tiga Puluh September. See in Indonesia September 30 movement post-Soeharto reforms, 189 Ghafar Baba, 199, 211 resistance to, 83, 87–88, 90, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, 178, 185 93–94, 103, 110–11, 116–17 Golkar and Malaysia 1997 election results, 168 criticisms of, 119 and adjustment policy, 117 initial policy similarities, 119, comparison to UMNO, 80, 162, 267 124–25, 126–31, 135 and democratization, 188–89 resistance to, 152–53, 202, 210 end of support for Soeharto, 185 and Mexico and fixed capital, 52 1982 agreement, 254 and the New Order party system, 79, 1994 agreement, 259 162 loan suspension, 255 support for Habibie, 179 and orthodox policies, 22 support for Soeharto, 164, 168, 171 and Uruguay, 250 green faction. See ABRI, factionalism IMF-Plus. See IMF, in Indonesia, grupos, 239–40, 241–42 resistance to Gus Dur. See Abdurrahman Wahid IMF without the IMF. See IMF, and Malaysia, initial policy Habibie, Bacharuddin Jusuf (B. J.), 2, similarities 43, 51, 89, 112, 155, 157, 166, Indians (ethnic group in Malaysia), 61, 179, 183, 190 61, 62–63, 64. See also MIC presidency, 188–89, 190 Indonesian Bank Restructuring vice presidency, 178 Agency. See IBRA as vice president, 167 Indonesian Chamber of Commerce. Halim Saad, 70, 136, 139 See Kadin Hanke, Steve, 111 Indonesian Democratic Party. See PDI Harakah, 209, 218 Indonesian Wood Panel Association. Harmoko, 117, 168, 172, 174, 184 See Apkindo Hasan, Muhammad (Bob), 55, 57, 59, Industri Pesawat Terbang Nasional. 178, 187, 190 See IPTN banking problems, 104. See also inflation. See also financial policy; Bank Umum Nasional monetary policy forestry concessions, 59, 89, 187, 190 in Indonesia, 90, 92, 93–94, 99, 102 resistance to IMF conditions, 89 containment of under New Order, Hirschman, Albert, 75 43 House of Representatives (Indonesia). under Sukarno, 41, 43 See DPR in Malaysia, 133, 145 Hutomo Mandala Putra. See Tommy and regime trajectories, 8, 17, 244, Soeharto 261, 271 Inlanders (natives). See pribumi Ibnu Sutowo, 46, 56, 101 Institutional Revolutionary Party. See IBRA, 102–4, 177 PRI

320 Index

institutions precrisis boom, 124 and adjustment policy, 7, 80–81 restrictions placed on, 148 and authoritarianism, 9, 78–80, Komando Candangan Strategi Tentara 262–63, 265, 266–67 Negara Indonesia Angkatan manipulation of, 8, 93. See also BI, Darat. See Kostrad personnel shakeups, BNM, Komando Pasukan Khusus. See opposition to adjustment Kopassus policies konglomerat, 51. See also Chinese and regime survival, 8, 19, 81, 162– (ethnic group in Southeast 63, 196–97, 228–37, 271, 272 Asia), in Indonesia interest rates. See ﬁnancial policy; abandonment of New Order, 155, monetary policy 164, 183–84. See also Chinese Internal Security Act. See ISA (ethnic group in Southeast International Monetary Fund. See IMF Asia), in Indonesia, exodus IPTN, 44, 87 in the democratic period, 190 ISA, 67, 201, 213, 214, 216, 222 favoritism, 97, 113–14 Islamism, and factionalism in ABRI. pressure on the regime, 93, 112 See ABRI, factionalism targeting of, 111, 164, 171, 172–73, Ismail Hasan Matareum, 176, 184 174, 175–76, 187. See also Ito, Hiro, 227, 229, 254, 269 Chinese (ethnic group in Southeast Asia), in Indonesia, Javanese culture, 161 discrimination against Jomo K. S., 68, 121, 218 Konsortium Perkapalan Berhad. See Jordan, 33, 34 KPB Kopassus, 51, 179 Kadin, 52, 98, 112, 169 Kostrad, 42, 49, 51, 56, 163, 168, 174, Kamaruddin Jaafar, 73, 213, 216 177, 179 Kammen, Douglas, 163 KPB, 73, 137, 140, 142 Karpal Singh, 222 Krugman, Paul, 23–24 KeADILan, 62, 196, 215, 222 Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. See 1999 electoral results, 220–22 KLSE formation of, 215 multiculturalist platform, 196 labor Kelantan. See PAS, and the Malay in Argentina, 243, 245, 247. See belt; UMNO, and the Malay also Argentina, coalition belt structure ketuanan Melayu. See Malay in Chile, 240, 241–42. See also supremacy Chile, coalition structure Khalid Jafri, 208, 209 inclusion in authoritarian coalitions, Khazanah Nasional, 134, 135, 137, 16, 31. See also populism 138 in Indonesia KKN, 156, 207, 209 adjustment policy and, 91, 93, 115 KLSE, 119 and regime change. See and ASB/ASN returns, 141–42 authoritarian breakdowns, in and CLOB’s closing, 149 Indonesia; reformasi and corporate bailouts, 133–34 movement, in Indonesia crash, 133 in Malaysia, 3, 40

Index 321

adjustment policy and. See political supporters. See BN, unity adjustment policy, in Malaysia during Malaysia’s crisis; Malay masses and, 64–68 UMNO, support for Mahathir panethnic organization and rationality of, 193 containment of, 68 relationship with Anwar Ibrahim, and regime survival. See 143, 199–200, 202–4, 207–15 authoritarian breakdowns, role in adjustment policy. See absence in Malaysia; reformasi adjustment policy, in Malaysia movement, in Malaysia ties to Malay entrepreneurs, 70 in Mexico, 18, 251, 252, 253, 254, Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat. See 256–57, 257–58, 259–60. See MPR also PRI, changing coalition of Majlis Amanah Rakyat. See MARA preferences over adjustment policy, Malay belt. See PAS, and the Malay belt; 7, 15, 30, 31–32, 264 UMNO, and the Malay belt in Uruguay, 248, 249. See also Malay supremacy. See also NEP Uruguay, coalition structure constitutional provisions for, 66 Latin American Debt Crisis, 6, 12, 20, and public policy, 63–67. See also 238–55 adjustment policy, in Malaysia Liem Sioe Liong, 55, 56, 59, 97, 100, Malayan Banking Berhad. See 103, 173, 181 Maybank Bhd Lim Guan Eng, 199, 205 Malayan Communist Party. See MCP Lim Keng Yaik, 205, 206 Malaysia Airlines, 71, 139, 140 Lim Kit Siang, 142, 199, 204–5, 219, Malaysian Automobile Corporation. 222 See Proton Ling Liong Sik, 206 Malaysian Chinese Association. See Lippo Group, 55, 112 MCA liquidity support. See BLBI; financial MalaysianIndianCongress.See MIC policy Malaysian People’s Movement. See Lo´ pez Portillo, Jose´, 251, 252, 253, Gerakan 254, 256, 259 Malaysian People’s Party. See PRM Love Indonesia campaign, 111, 173 Malvinas War, 243, 247 Love Malaysia campaign, 146 MARA, 65, 128 Love the Rupiah movement, 111, 171, Marimutu Sinivasan, 98–99 172, 173, 174, 175, 176 Maxfield, Sylvia, 252 Luebbert, Gregory, 268 May 13–14 riots, 155, 156, 157, 160, 164, 166, 180–83 MacIntyre, Andrew, 7, 272 impact on Malaysian politics, 218 macroeconomic policy. See fiscal responsibility for, 182–83 policy; monetary policy Maybank Bhd, 134, 135 Magaloni, Beatriz, 20 MBf Holdings, 70, 71, 139 Mahathir Mohamad MCA, 62, 63 economic ideas, 65, 69 1999 electoral results, 222 increasing authoritarianism of, 80 and Chinese Malaysian business leadership challenges, 76, 196, interests, 75–77 207–10 responses to Malaysia’s financial and political succession. See crisis, 206 UMNO, succession issues McLeod, Ross, 45

322 Index

MCP, 63 Ibrahim; Daim Zainuddin; media Mustapha Mohamed; Tengku foreign coverage, 179, 203 Razaleigh Hamzah in Indonesia and corporate bailouts, 137 post-Soeharto freedoms, 189 Mirzan Mahathir, 74, 137 proregime bias in, 112, 171 mobile capital. See also capital mobility restrictions on, 168 in Argentina, 245, 247. See also targeting of Chinese in, 172, 176 Argentina, coalition structure in Malaysia in Chile, 241–42. See also Chile, ownership of, 68, 199 coalition structure proregime bias in, 129, 200, 202, definition of. See capital mobility, 206, 208, 212, 215, 217–18, 219 definition of restrictions on, 68, 195, 210–11, in Indonesia, 3, 40, 53–61. See also 214, 217–18, 222 Chinese (ethnic group in Megawati Sukarnoputri. See Southeast Asia), in Indonesia Sukarnoputri, Megawati and adjustment policy. See Meńdez, Aparicio, 248, 250 adjustment policy, in Indonesia Mexico, 12, 16, 17, 18, 33, 226 and regime change. See 1982 crisis authoritarian breakdowns, in capital inflows and, 252 Indonesia policy response to, 252–55 in Malaysia, 75. See also and regime survival, 253, 255 Chinese(ethnic group in Southeast 1994 crisis Asia), in Malaysia, capital assets capital inflows and, 258 and adjustment policy. See and democratization, 259–60 adjustment policy, in Malaysia policy response to, 258–59 in Mexico, 252, 253, 255, 257 MIC, 62, 63, 220 preferences over adjustment policy, 1999 electoral results, 222 7, 14, 26–30, 31, 264 military in Uruguay, 249, 250. See also in Indonesia. See ABRI Uruguay, coalition structure in Malaysia, 66, 74 Mohd. Azlan Hashim, 148–49 military regimes Mohtar Abdullah, 199, 212 in Argentina, 243 monetary policy. See also capital in Chile, 238–39 account policy; exchange rates; and coalition formation, 17 financial policy in Latin America, 261, 261–63 in Indonesia, 2, 91–94 and regime survival, 8, 19, 228–37, logic of, 22, 23, 26–30, 30, 31 271 in Malaysia, 2, 130–133 in Uruguay, 248 Moore, Barrington, 268 Ministry of Finance (Indonesia), 91. MPR, March 1998 session, 160, 164, See also Bawazier, Fuad; 166, 170, 173, 174, 175, 177– Muhammad, Mar’ie 79 and bank closures, 100–2 Muhammad Hasan. See Hasan, and bank restructuring. See IBRA Muhammad (Bob) personnel shakeups, 93 Muhammad, Mar’ie, 93, 100, 102, 112 Ministry of Finance (Malaysia), 70, 75, Muhammadiyah, 160 76, 126, 138. See also Anwar Munawar Ahmad Anees, 213

Index 323

Mundell-Fleming conditions, 24. See estimates of, 134–35 also capital account policy; North American Free Trade exchange rates; monetary policy Agreement, 257 Murdani, Leonardus Benyamin Nurcholish Madjid, 185 (Benny), 50, 51 and factionalism in ABRI. See ABRI, Official Secrets Act, 68, 214 factionalism Murtopo, Ali, 50, 57 Pancasila, 43 Mustapha Mohamed, 129 Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party. See PAS Parliament (Indonesia). See DPR Nahdlatul Ulama, 173 Parliament (Malaysia). See DR Najib Abdul Razak, 208 Partai Demokrasi Indonesia. See PDI National Action Party, 255 Partai Komunis Indonesia. See PKI National Army of Indonesia. See TNI Partai Persatuan Pembangunan. See National Democratic Front, 257 PPP National Development Policy Parti Islam se-Malaysia. See PAS (Malaysia), 64. See also NEP Parti Keadilan Nasional. See National Economic Action Council. KeADILan See NEAC Parti Keadilan Rakyat. See PKR National Economic Recovery Plan Parti Rakyat Malaysia. See PRM (Malaysia), 129, 131 PAS, 62, 197, 209, 215, 216, 217, 218 National Equity Corporation. See PNB 1999 electoral results, 220–22 National Front. See BN Islamist platform, 67, 196, 202, 217, National JUSTice Party. See KeADILan 218 National Operations Council, 63 and Malay belt, 197, 198, 206 National Petroleum Limited. See threats to UMNO’s Malay Petronas constituency, 64, 67, 198, 206 nationalist faction (ABRI). See ABRI, PDI, 79, 159, 167, 169, 184 factionalism Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional NEAC, 126, 131, 131, 138, 147, 151, Berhad. See Danaharta 204 People’s Consultative Council. See and Anwar Ibrahim, 202, 203, 210 MPR NEP, 64–66 People’s Justice Party. See PKR and IMF, 153 peranakan. See Chinese (ethnic group in and new Malay enterpreneurs, 69. Southeast Asia), in Malaysia, See also UMNO, and fixed history capital Peremba, 70 New Economic Policy. See NEP Permodalan Nasional Berhad. See PNB New Order, 3, 22, 35, 40, 272 Pertamina, 46 coalitional basis of, 42–61 Perusahaan Otomobil Nasional Bhd. collapse of, 155–91, 265, 274 See Proton existing theories, 156–66 Perwaja Steel, 205 models of, 78–79 Petroliam Nasional Bhd. See Petronas succession issues, 162, 163–64, Petronas, 65, 69 166–68 during Malaysia’s crisis, 128, 137, nonperforming loans. See also debt; 138, 139 financial policy Philippines, 14, 33, 81, 194, 231, 275

324 Index

Pinochet, Augusto, 14, 18, 239, 240, Rashid Hussain Bank. See RHB Bank 241, 242 red-and-white faction. See ABRI, PKI, 42–43 factionalism PKR, 62. See also KeADILan reformasi movement PNB, 66, 134, 219. See also ASB; ASN in Indonesia, 156, 160, 166, 174, populism 175, 180, 187, 188, 189, in Argentina, 243, 247 275–76 and authoritarian rule, 16, 262, 264 in Malaysia, 160, 192, 196, 212–15, in Indonesia, 159, 189 217, 218, 275–76 in Malaysia, 79, 201. See also regime survival. See authoritarian UMNO, targeting of Malay breakdowns; democratization masses Renong, 71, 136, 137, 139, 140 in Mexico, 17, 255, 256. See also RHB Bank, 134, 136 PRI, populist origins of Rodrik, Dani, 276 portfolio investment, 25, 122–24, 147, 148, 154 Salim Group, 55, 56, 97, 104 PPP, 79, 115, 168, 169, 176, 184 Salim, Anthony, 103 Prabowo Subianto, 51, 101, 163, 174, Salim, Sudono. See Liem Sioe Liong 175, 177, 178, 179, 180, 182, Salinas de Gortari, Carlos, 257, 258 185 Samy Vellu, S., 128, 220 and factionalism in ABRI. See ABRI, Sanusi Junid, 208, 210 factionalism Sarawak United People’s Party, 76, and student leaders’ disappearances, 221 179 SBI, 91, 102 involvement in May riots. See May Sedition Act, 68, 214 13–14 riots, responsibility for Semangat ’46, 197, 198 involvement in Trisakti massacre, September 30 movement, 42 181 Seventh Development Cabinet, Prajogo Pangestu, 55, 59, 190 177–78, 185, 188 Prawirawata, Iwan, 102, 170, 177 Sime Bank, 135, 136, 138 PRI, 12, 16, 251 Sime Darby, 130, 136, 142 changing coalition of, 255–58 Singapore Stock Exchange, 149 populist origins of, 17, 252 Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana. See Tutut pribumi Siti Hartinah. See Tien Soeharto deﬁnition, 40 Sixth Development Cabinet, 167 entrepreneurs, 44, 52, 54, 60–61, Sjafrie Sjamsuddin, 183 93, 112, 171, 172, 173, 182, Sjahril Sabirin, 102, 113, 170, 177, 183, 188, 189, 191 178 Printing Presses and Publications Act, Societies Act, 68 68. See also media, in Malaysia, Soedradjad Djiwandono, 92, 93, 99, restrictions on 101–2, 106, 107, 111, 113, PRM, 215, 216, 219, 221 170, 172, 177 Probosutedjo, 100 Soeharto Proton, 65, 69, 130, 139, 140 connections to ethnic Chinese cronies, 56, 276. See also Raden Hartono, 51, 168, 178 Chinese (ethnic group in Rahim Tamby Chik, 199, 208 Southeast Asia), in Indonesia

Index 325

family business connections. See Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, 76, 196 Bambang Trihatmodjo; Tentara Nasional Indonesia. See TNI Probosutedjo; Sudwikatmono; Tequila Crisis. See Mexico, 1994 crisis Tien Soeharto; Tommy Terengganu. See PAS, and the Malay Soeharto; Tutut belt; UMNO, and the Malay health problems, 156, 161–62, 164 belt management of subordinates, 45, The Kian Seng. See Hasan, 47–52 Muhammad (Bob) rationality of, 161–62, 186 Tien Soeharto, 161 resignation of. See New Order, Timor Putra Nasional, 87, 167, 181 collapse of Ting Pek Khiing, 76, 124–25 rise to power, 41, 42–43 TNI, 191 role in adjustment policy. See Todd, Patricia, 68 adjustment policy, in Indonesia Tommy Soeharto, 59, 89, 103, 167, role in the New Order coalition, 181, 190 44–45 trade Soros, George, 119, 144 effect of exchange rates on. See South Korea, 18, 81, 122 exchange rates, and experts Special Forces Command. See and policy preferences, 26–30 Kopassus trade policy Stasavage, David, 268 in Indonesia, 87–89 stock market. See KLSE in Malaysia, 130 Strategic Reserve Command. See Tri Usaha Bhakti, 48, 57 Kostrad Trisakti massacre. See May 13–14 subsidies. See also ﬁscal policy riots cuts in Indonesia, 2, 83, 90–91, 117 Tunku Abdul Rahman, 63 protests, 181 Tutut, 100, 111, 114, 167, 171, 173, in Malaysia, 64, 65–66, 125, 126, 174, 178, 181, 185 128–29 twin crises succession. See New Order, succession deﬁnition of, 20–22 issues; UMNO, succession global incidence of, 33–34 issues onset of Sudono Salim. See Liem Sioe Liong in Indonesia, 84–87 Sudwikatmono, 56 in Malaysia, 121–24 Sukarno, 41, 42, 170 and regime change, 34–35, 226–37 Sukarnoputri, Megawati, 167 solutions to, 22–24 Sukma Darmawan, 213 Sumitro, 50 UEM, 71, 136, 139, 140, 142, 205 surat laying, 203 UMNO, 62, 67, 79, 125, 131, 193, Sutrisno, Try, 167 194, 195, 196, 198, 200, 203, Syarwan Hamid, 169, 174, 184 211, 214, 222 1990 crisis, 197 tablita, 244, 249, 250 1998 General Assembly, 126, 148, Tajudin Ramli, 70, 71, 139 153, 207, 210 Tan Chee Yioun, Vincent, 76 1999 electoral results, 220–22, 224 technocrats (Indonesia), 93, 113 and Chinese capital, 75–76, 77, 124, versus nationalists, 43, 162 140, 146–47, 204

326 Index

UMNO (cont.) anti-Chinese. See Chinese (ethnic and fixed capital, 69, 70–74, 76, group in Southeast Asia), in 136–41, 198, 204, 209 Indonesia, violence against and the Malay belt, 198 May 1998 riots. See May 13–14 comparison to Golkar, 80, 162 riots dominance of the BN, 63, 192 and political stability. See ABRI, electoral checks on, 64, 67 and social order PAS criticisms of. See PAS, threats to and the rise of the New Order, 43 UMNO’s Malay constituency in Malaysia, 2, 63, 64, 67, 214, 218 post-September 1998 purges, 216 Vreemde Oosterlingen (foreign succession issues, 199, 207, 211 Easterners). See Chinese (ethnic support for Mahathir, 201, 208, group in Southeast Asia), in 212, 223 Indonesia, history targeting of Malay masses, 64, 65, 141–42, 197–98, 200, 252. See Waldner, David, 268 also NEP Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, 160, 196, 215 Youth wing, 128, 150, 199, 205, Wanandi, Sofyan, 57, 93, 175 208, 213 Widjojo Nitisastro, 111 United Development Party. See PPP Winters, Jeffrey, 60 United Engineers (Malaysia) Berhad. Wiranto, 51, 163, 168, 174, 177, 179, See UEM 182, 184, 191 United Malays National Organisation. and factional alignments in ABRI. See UMNO See ABRI, factionalism Universities and University Colleges involvement in May riots. See May Act, 68, 214 13–14 riots, responsibility for Uruguay, 12, 33, 238 willingness to use force, 160, 180, capital inflows, 248, 249 182, 185 coalition structure, 17, 248–49 World Bank, 82, 138, 144, 152, 153 financial crisis and democratization, 250 yayasan, 46, 91 policy response to, 249–50 Yayasan Dharma Putera, 48, 56 Yudhoyono, Susilo Bambang, 179, van de Walle, Nicolas, 273 191 Videla, Jorge, 243, 244, 246 violence Zedillo, Ernesto, 14, 251, 258, 259, in Indonesia, 2, 159, 168, 172, 260 173–74 Zimbabwe, 16, 17, 33, 271