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Les Aspin Center of Marquette University William Broydrick - Broydrick & Associates March 10, 2016 How the Democrats Rise Again

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Les Aspin Center of Marquette University William Broydrick - Broydrick & Associates March 10, 2016 How the Democrats Rise Again Les Aspin Center of Marquette University William Broydrick - Broydrick & Associates March 10, 2016 How the Democrats Rise Again A Simple Strategy 1. Hold on to the Executive 2. Take back the Senate Quick Facts on the Senate • Senate Composition • Republican – 54 • Democrat – 44 • Independent – 2* • Upcoming Elections • Republican – 24 • Democrat – 10 • Safe Wins • Republican – 13 • Democrats – 8 • Blue = 2 Democrats • Red = 2 Republicans •Potentially Open • Purple = 1 Democrat & 1 Republican • Republican – 11 • Green = Independent • Democrat - 2 *Bernie Sanders (VT) & Angus King (ME) – both caucus as Democrats Who’s Seat is Safe? Democrats • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (CA) – Was held by Barbara Boxer (D) since 1993 – D+9 • California has a “top two” primary system which means its not a given a Republican will even be on the ballot at all – two democrats could finish top two • Retiring Senator Barbara Boxer (D) previously beat Carly Fiorina (R) by 10% • Richard Blumenthal (CT) – Senator since 2011 – D+7 • Only August Wolf (R) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016 • Won last election with 55.2% of the vote, 12% more than next closest competitor • Brian Schatz (HI) – Senator since 2012 – D+20 • Only Charles Collins (R) has declared, primary is August 13, 2016 • Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 69.8% of the vote, 42% more than next closest competitor • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (MD) – Was held by Barbara Mikulski since 1987 – D+10 • Retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) previously beat Eric Wargotz (R) by 27% • Chuck Schumer (NY) – Senator since 1999 – D+11 • Only Wendy Long (R) officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016 • Won last election with 66.4% of the vote, 33% more than next closest competitor Who’s Seat is Safe? Democrats • Ron Wyden (OR) – Senator since 1996 – D+5 • Four Republicans currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016 • Won last election with 57.22% of the vote, 18% more than next closest competitor •Patrick Leahy (VT) – Senator since 1975– D+16 • No Republican opponent officially currently in race, primary is August 9, 2016 • Won last election with 64.3% of the vote, 14% more than next closest competitor • Patty Murray (WA) – Senator since 1993 – D+5 • Only Chris Vance (R) has declared, primary is August 2, 2016 • Won last election with 52.36% of the vote, 5% more than next closest competitor 8/10 Seats Secure Who’s Seat is Safe? Republicans • Lisa Murkowski (AK) – Senator since 2002 – R+12 • No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are three independents • Lost 2010 primary, but later won over a fellow Republican as a write-in candidate with 39.49% of the vote • Richard Shelby (AL) – Senator since 1987 – R+14 • Running against Ronald Crumpton (D) • Won last election with 65.3% of the vote, 21% more than next closest competitor • John Boozman (AR) – Senator since 2011 – R+14 • Running against Connor Eldridge (D) • Won last election over an incumbent with 57.90% of the vote, a margin of 21% • Johnny Isakson (GA) – Senator since 2005 – R+6 • No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are two independents • Won last election with 58.3% of the vote, 19% more than next closest competitor • Chuck Grassley (IA) – Senator since 1981 – D+1 • Four Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 7, 2016 • Won last election with 64.35% of the vote, 31% more than next closest competitor Who’s Seat is Safe? Republicans • Mike Crapo (ID) – Senator since 1999 – R+18 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is May 17, 2016 • Won last election with 71.2% of the vote, 46% more than the next closest competitor • Jerry Moran (KS) – Senator since 2011 – R+12 • Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 1, 2016 • Won last election with 70.3% of the vote, 44% more than next closest competitor • Rand Paul (KY) – Senator since 2011 – R+13 • Seven Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016 • Won last election over an incumbent with 55.69% of the vote, a margin of 11% • John Hoeven (ND) – Senator since 2011 – R+10 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 14, 2016 • Won last election with 76.1% of the vote, 54% more than next closest competitor • James Lankford (OK) – Senator since 2015 – R+19 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016 • Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 67.9% of the vote, 38% more than next closest competitor Who’s Seat is Safe? Republicans • Tim Scott (SC) – Senator since 2013 – R+8 • Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 14, 2016 • Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 61.1% of the vote, 24% more than next closest competitor • John Thune (SD) – Senator since 2005– R+10 • Only Jay Williams (D) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016 • Won last election running unopposed • Mike Lee (UT) – Senator since 2011 – R+22 • Only Jonathan Swinton (D) has declared, primary is June 28, 2016 • Won last election with 61.6% of the vote, 29% more than the next closest competitor 13/24 Seats Secure The Tough Races Democrats • Michael Bennet (CO) – Senator since 2009 – D+1 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (NV) – Was held by Harry Reid (D) since 1987 – D+2 Republicans • John McCain (AZ) – Senator since 1987 – R+7 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (FL) – Was held by Marco Rubio (R) since 2011 – R+2 • Mark Kirk (IL) – Senator since 2011 – D+8 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (IN) – Was held by Daniel Coats (R) since 2011 – R+5 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (LA) – Was held by David Vitter (R) since 2005 – R+12 • Roy Blunt (MO) – Senator since 2011 – R+7 • Richard Burr (NC) – Senator since 2005 – R+3 • Kelly Ayotte (NH) – Senator since 2011 – D+1 • Rob Portman (OH) – Senator since 2011 – R+1 • Patrick Toomey (PA) – Senator since 2011 – D+1 • Ron Johnson (WI) – Senator since 2011 – D+2 Colorado Robert Blaha, businessman and candidate for CO-05 in 2012 Charlie Ehler, retired Air Force computer programmer and Tea Party activist Jerry Eller, former insurance and real estate agent Ryan Frazier, former Aurora City Councilman, nominee for CO-07 in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Aurora in 2011 Darryl Glenn, El Paso County Commissioner Jack Graham, former Colorado State University Athletic Director Tom Janich, former Brighton School Board member and perennial candidate Jon Keyser, State Representative V. Michael Kinlaw, mortgage broker Peggy Littleton, El Paso County Commissioner and former Colorado State Board of Education member Greg Lopez, former Director of the Small Business Administration Colorado District, former Mayor of Parker and State Senate candidate in 2000 Jerry Natividad, businessman Tim Neville, State Senator Michael Bennet (inc.) Donald Rosier, Jefferson County Commissioner Colorado Why the Democrats hold: • Colorado has gone blue for the past two presidential elections • Mike Coffman (R) decided not to run for the seat and was considered the Republican’s best chance. At the time he polled 3 points higher than Bennet • The thirteen GOP candidates shows lack of party unity and clear direction – no strong candidates on GOP side • Bennet has the benefit of the incumbent bump Why this could be wrong: • Most recent polling data for Colorado shows Republican presidential candidates winning over all Michael Bennet (inc.) ✔ Democrats handedly Nevada Sharron Angle, Bob Beers, Las Vegas Eddie Hamilton, former state City Councilman and businessman V. Assemblywoman former State Senator Catherine Cortez Masto Former Attorney General Dr. Joe Heck, U.S. Robert X. Leeds, Executive Representative from Editor at Epic Publishing Nevada Company Nevada Why the Democrats hold: • Recent data shows Nevada shifting further Democrat with its 2012 PVI of D+1 shifting to D+2 in 2016 • Nevada has gone Democrat in the past two presidential elections • Catherine Cortez Masto is the only candidate to have won a state-wide campaign and did so twice • Catherine has the infrastructure left behind by Senate juggernaut Harry Reid Why this could be wrong: • Despite Obama’s 2012 electoral victory, Democrats still lost the Senate race in that year • Rep. Heck is a popular politician and a strong Catherine Cortez Masto ✔ competitor for the Senate seat, he wins out of a Former Attorney General largely blue district and did so in 2012 despite Obama’s win Arizona V. Ann Kirkpatrick John McCain (inc.) U.S. Representative Arizona Why the Republicans hold: • Recent data shows Arizona shifting further Republican with its 2012 PVI of R+6 shifting to R+7 in 2016 • A Democrat hasn’t won an Arizona Senate race since 1988 • The most recent polling data shows McCain defeating Kirkpatrick • McCain has the incumbent bump Why this could be wrong: • The most recent polling data shows McCain at 41% and Kirkpatrick at 40% with a 3.7% margin of error – meaning this could easily be a 44% Kirkpatrick over 37% McCain John McCain (inc.) ✔ • Earlier polls show McCain with a significant lead (51% to 36%) suggesting that momentum is not on his side Florida V. Alan Grayson U.S. Representative David Jolly U.S. Representative Patrick Murphy U.S. Representative Florida Why the Republicans hold: • Most likely matchup according to recent polling data is Jolly v. Grayson, a September poll shows a +3 Jolly lead • Florida is an R+2, this right leaning tendency could swing a close race • Grayson, who is the current Democratic front- runner has already started scheduling one-on-one debates with Jolly Why this could be wrong: • The biggest factor is the Democratic primary, if Grayson loses and Murphy gets the nomination this swings back in the Democrats favor • Polls showing Grayson over Murphy (33% to 22%) David Jolly ✔ have a 45% undecided vote that could easily swing U.S.
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