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Home , Caroline Fayard, Charles Boustany, Jon Keyser, Marlin Stutzman, Wendy Long

Les Aspin Center of Marquette University William Broydrick - Broydrick & Associates March 10, 2016 How the Democrats Rise Again

A Simple Strategy

1. Hold on to the Executive 2. Take back the Senate Quick Facts on the Senate

• Senate Composition • Republican – 54 • Democrat – 44 • Independent – 2*

• Upcoming Elections • Republican – 24 • Democrat – 10

• Safe Wins • Republican – 13 • Democrats – 8 • Blue = 2 Democrats • Red = 2 Republicans •Potentially Open • Purple = 1 Democrat & 1 Republican • Republican – 11 • Green = Independent • Democrat - 2

*Bernie Sanders (VT) & Angus King (ME) – both caucus as Democrats Who’s Seat is Safe?

Democrats • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (CA) – Was held by Barbara Boxer (D) since 1993 – D+9 • California has a “top two” primary system which means its not a given a Republican will even be on the ballot at all – two democrats could finish top two • Retiring Senator Barbara Boxer (D) previously beat Carly Fiorina (R) by 10% • Richard Blumenthal (CT) – Senator since 2011 – D+7 • Only August Wolf (R) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016 • Won last election with 55.2% of the vote, 12% more than next closest competitor • Brian Schatz (HI) – Senator since 2012 – D+20 • Only Charles Collins (R) has declared, primary is August 13, 2016 • Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 69.8% of the vote, 42% more than next closest competitor • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (MD) – Was held by Barbara Mikulski since 1987 – D+10 • Retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) previously beat Eric Wargotz (R) by 27% • (NY) – Senator since 1999 – D+11 • Only Wendy Long (R) officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016 • Won last election with 66.4% of the vote, 33% more than next closest competitor Who’s Seat is Safe?

Democrats • Ron Wyden (OR) – Senator since 1996 – D+5 • Four Republicans currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016 • Won last election with 57.22% of the vote, 18% more than next closest competitor •Patrick Leahy (VT) – Senator since 1975– D+16 • No Republican opponent officially currently in race, primary is August 9, 2016 • Won last election with 64.3% of the vote, 14% more than next closest competitor • Patty Murray (WA) – Senator since 1993 – D+5 • Only Chris Vance (R) has declared, primary is August 2, 2016 • Won last election with 52.36% of the vote, 5% more than next closest competitor

8/10 Seats Secure Who’s Seat is Safe?

Republicans • Lisa Murkowski (AK) – Senator since 2002 – R+12 • No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are three independents • Lost 2010 primary, but later won over a fellow Republican as a write-in candidate with 39.49% of the vote • Richard Shelby (AL) – Senator since 1987 – R+14 • Running against Ronald Crumpton (D) • Won last election with 65.3% of the vote, 21% more than next closest competitor • John Boozman (AR) – Senator since 2011 – R+14 • Running against Connor Eldridge (D) • Won last election over an incumbent with 57.90% of the vote, a margin of 21% • Johnny Isakson (GA) – Senator since 2005 – R+6 • No Democratic opponent currently in race, there are two independents • Won last election with 58.3% of the vote, 19% more than next closest competitor • Chuck Grassley (IA) – Senator since 1981 – D+1 • Four Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 7, 2016 • Won last election with 64.35% of the vote, 31% more than next closest competitor Who’s Seat is Safe?

Republicans • Mike Crapo (ID) – Senator since 1999 – R+18 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is May 17, 2016 • Won last election with 71.2% of the vote, 46% more than the next closest competitor • Jerry Moran (KS) – Senator since 2011 – R+12 • Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 1, 2016 • Won last election with 70.3% of the vote, 44% more than next closest competitor • (KY) – Senator since 2011 – R+13 • Seven Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is May 17, 2016 • Won last election over an incumbent with 55.69% of the vote, a margin of 11% • John Hoeven (ND) – Senator since 2011 – R+10 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 14, 2016 • Won last election with 76.1% of the vote, 54% more than next closest competitor • James Lankford (OK) – Senator since 2015 – R+19 • No Democratic opponent officially currently in race, primary is June 28, 2016 • Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 67.9% of the vote, 38% more than next closest competitor Who’s Seat is Safe?

Republicans • Tim Scott (SC) – Senator since 2013 – R+8 • Two Democrats currently vying for nomination, primary is June 14, 2016 • Won last election, a 2014 special election, with 61.1% of the vote, 24% more than next closest competitor • John Thune (SD) – Senator since 2005– R+10 • Only Jay Williams (D) has declared, primary is June 7, 2016 • Won last election running unopposed • Mike Lee (UT) – Senator since 2011 – R+22 • Only Jonathan Swinton (D) has declared, primary is June 28, 2016 • Won last election with 61.6% of the vote, 29% more than the next closest competitor 13/24 Seats Secure The Tough Races

Democrats • (CO) – Senator since 2009 – D+1 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (NV) – Was held by Harry Reid (D) since 1987 – D+2

Republicans • John McCain (AZ) – Senator since 1987 – R+7 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (FL) – Was held by Marco Rubio (R) since 2011 – R+2 • Mark Kirk (IL) – Senator since 2011 – D+8 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (IN) – Was held by Daniel Coats (R) since 2011 – R+5 • OPEN SEAT ELECTION (LA) – Was held by (R) since 2005 – R+12 • Roy Blunt (MO) – Senator since 2011 – R+7 • Richard Burr (NC) – Senator since 2005 – R+3 • Kelly Ayotte (NH) – Senator since 2011 – D+1 • Rob Portman (OH) – Senator since 2011 – R+1 • Patrick Toomey (PA) – Senator since 2011 – D+1 • Ron Johnson (WI) – Senator since 2011 – D+2

Robert Blaha, businessman and candidate for CO-05 in 2012 Charlie Ehler, retired Air Force computer programmer and Tea Party activist Jerry Eller, former insurance and real estate agent Ryan Frazier, former Aurora City Councilman, nominee for CO-07 in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Aurora in 2011 Darryl Glenn, El Paso County Commissioner Jack Graham, former Colorado State University Athletic Director Tom Janich, former Brighton School Board member and perennial candidate Jon Keyser, State Representative V. Michael Kinlaw, mortgage broker Peggy Littleton, El Paso County Commissioner and former Colorado State Board of Education member Greg Lopez, former Director of the Small Business Administration Colorado District, former Mayor of Parker and State Senate candidate in 2000 Jerry Natividad, businessman Tim Neville, State Senator Michael Bennet (inc.) Donald Rosier, Jefferson County Commissioner Colorado

Why the Democrats hold: • Colorado has gone blue for the past two presidential elections • Mike Coffman (R) decided not to run for the seat and was considered the Republican’s best chance. At the time he polled 3 points higher than Bennet • The thirteen GOP candidates shows lack of party unity and clear direction – no strong candidates on GOP side • Bennet has the benefit of the incumbent bump

Why this could be wrong: • Most recent polling data for Colorado shows Republican presidential candidates winning over all Michael Bennet (inc.) ✔ Democrats handedly Nevada

Sharron Angle, Bob Beers, Las Vegas Eddie Hamilton, former state City Councilman and businessman V. Assemblywoman former State Senator

Catherine Cortez Masto Former Attorney General Dr. Joe Heck, U.S. Robert X. Leeds, Executive Representative from Editor at Epic Publishing Nevada Company Nevada

Why the Democrats hold: • Recent data shows Nevada shifting further Democrat with its 2012 PVI of D+1 shifting to D+2 in 2016 • Nevada has gone Democrat in the past two presidential elections • Catherine Cortez Masto is the only candidate to have won a state-wide campaign and did so twice • Catherine has the infrastructure left behind by Senate juggernaut Harry Reid

Why this could be wrong: • Despite Obama’s 2012 electoral victory, Democrats still lost the Senate race in that year • Rep. Heck is a popular politician and a strong Catherine Cortez Masto ✔ competitor for the Senate seat, he wins out of a Former Attorney General largely blue district and did so in 2012 despite Obama’s win Arizona

V.

Ann Kirkpatrick John McCain (inc.) U.S. Representative Arizona

Why the Republicans hold: • Recent data shows Arizona shifting further Republican with its 2012 PVI of R+6 shifting to R+7 in 2016 • A Democrat hasn’t won an Arizona Senate race since 1988 • The most recent polling data shows McCain defeating Kirkpatrick • McCain has the incumbent bump

Why this could be wrong: • The most recent polling data shows McCain at 41% and Kirkpatrick at 40% with a 3.7% margin of error – meaning this could easily be a 44% Kirkpatrick over 37% McCain John McCain (inc.) ✔ • Earlier polls show McCain with a significant lead (51% to 36%) suggesting that momentum is not on his side Florida

V. Alan Grayson U.S. Representative

David Jolly U.S. Representative Patrick Murphy U.S. Representative Florida

Why the Republicans hold: • Most likely matchup according to recent polling data is Jolly v. Grayson, a September poll shows a +3 Jolly lead • Florida is an R+2, this right leaning tendency could swing a close race • Grayson, who is the current Democratic front- runner has already started scheduling one-on-one debates with Jolly

Why this could be wrong: • The biggest factor is the Democratic primary, if Grayson loses and Murphy gets the nomination this swings back in the Democrats favor • Polls showing Grayson over Murphy (33% to 22%) David Jolly ✔ have a 45% undecided vote that could easily swing U.S. Representative the primary to Murphy • Polls show Murphy +5 over Jolly Illinois

V.

Tammy Duckworth Mark Kirk (inc.) U.S. Representative Illinois

Why the Democrats gain this seat: • The last time Democrat lost a Senate race in Illinois in a presidential election year was 1972 • Most recent poll shows Duckworth leading Kirk by 6% • Illinois is a D+8, giving close races a strong chance of falling Democrat

Why this could be wrong: • The margin of error of the most recent poll is 3.2% which could mean this is a dead heat • Senator Kirk is the incumbent and is running scandal free, this helps any politician significantly Tammy Duckworth ✔ U.S. Representative

V. Marlin Stutzman U.S. Representative

Baron Hill Former U.S. Representative U.S. Representative Indiana

Why the Republicans hold: • Stutzman recently defeated Young in the Indiana straw poll he also leads by 14% according to a Gun Owners of America Poll showing he may win the primary – a 2010 poll of Stutzman v. Hill shows Stutzman trouncing Hill (41% to 33%) by an 8% Marlin Stutzman ✔ margin U.S. Representative • Indiana is an R+5, giving close races a strong chance of falling Republican

Why this could be wrong: • The last two races during a presidential campaign year have gone Democrat • Indiana has been slowly moving to the left slipping from an R+6 in 2012 to an R+5 in 2016 Todd Young U.S. Representative

Caroline Fayard Attorney , , Former John Fleming, US V. US Representative US Representative Representative

Foster Campbell Rob Maness, Retired Eric Skrmetta, Public John Kennedy, State Air Force Service Commissioner Treasurer Public Service Commissioner Colonel Louisiana

Why the Republicans hold: • Data shows Louisiana shifting further Republican with its 2012 PVI of R+10 shifting to R+12 in 2016 • Louisiana has a jungle primary • Recent polls show Kennedy taking 22.1% followed by Boustany with Charles Boustany, Joseph Cao, Former John Fleming, US 10.2%. The closest Democrat is US Representative US Representative Representative Campbell with 7.2% • Even should a Democrat get to the runoff, the combined votes for Democrats WITH the undecided vote is only 41.4% Why this could be wrong: • Louisiana just elected a Democratic Governor so tides Rob Maness, Retired Eric Skrmetta, Public John Kennedy, State ✔ Service Commissioner Treasurer could be changing Colonel Missouri

V.

Jason Kander Roy Blunt (inc.) Secretary of State Missouri

Why the Republicans hold: • Most recent polling data shows Blunt leading Kander (43% to 33%) by a margin of 10% • Missouri has moved further right in recent years with a PVI of R+3 in 2012 growing to R+5 in 2016 • Roy Blunt is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage • Secretary of states, which Kander is, have rarely been successful in Senatorial campaigns to the point that many believed the position to be cursed

Why this could be wrong: • Roy Blunt has yet to run in a presidential election year, which significantly changes the demographics Roy Blunt (inc.) ✔ • Jason Kander is a rising Democratic star in Missouri, he is the youngest statewide elected official North Carolina

V.

Deborah Ross Richard Burr (inc.) Former North Carolina State Representative North Carolina

Why the Republicans hold: • Most recent polling data shows Burr leading Ross (44% to 35%) by a margin of 9% • Since North Carolina is an R+3, close races would be more likely to swing Republican • Richard Burr is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage

Why this could be wrong: • North Carolina has been slowly moving to the left slipping from an R+4 in 2012 to an R+3 in 2016

Richard Burr (inc.) ✔

V.

Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte (inc.) Governor of New Hampshire New Hampshire

Why the Democrats gain this seat: • Hassan trails Ayotte by 4% in the most recent polls, but this is well within the margin of error. • New Hampshire is a D+1 in a race that is a dead heat, this small Democratic lean can be enough to tip the scales • No Independent Candidate is in the race leaving the vast majority of New Hampshire voters up for grabs •Hassan is a top pick for a Vice-Presidential run, which may distract her in this close race

Why this could be wrong: • Ayotte is still leading in the polls Maggie Hassan ✔ • Ayotte has powerful financial backers – Koch Bros Governor of New • As the incumbent Ayotte has a slight advantage Hampshire Ohio

V.

Ted Strickland Rob Portman (inc.) Former Governor of Ohio Ohio

Why the Republicans hold: • Portman trails Strickland by 2% in the most recent polls, but this is well within the margin of error • Portman originally trailed as much as 9%, since March 2015 ha has closed Strickland’s lead • Since North Carolina is an R+1, close races would be more likely to swing Republican • Rob Portman is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage • Kasich’s run for Presidency has likely gotten many Republicans to register to vote • Since 1992, Ohio has elected a Senator and President in the same party, current polls show Ohio likely to go Republican in the Presidential election Why this could be wrong: Rob Portman (inc.) ✔ • Portman is still trailing • As a former Ohio Governor, Strickland has proven viability in state-wide campaigns Pennsylvania

John Fetterman Joseph Vodvarka V. Mayor of Braddock Businessman

Patrick Toomey (inc.) Joe Sestak, Jr. Katie McGinty Former U.S. Former Chief of Staff Representative for Governor Wolf Pennsylvania

Why the Republicans hold: • While the Democratic primary is wide open, Toomey is polling well against all three candidates, he is predicted as 12% over McGinty, 10% over Sestak, 7% over Fetterman • Pennsylvania is slowly moving further right, from a D+2 in 2012 to a D+1 in 2016 •Patrick Toomey is an incumbent giving him a significant advantage

Why this could be wrong: • Polling data showing Toomey over possible Democratic competitors is not recent, once a Patrick Toomey (inc.) Democratic frontrunner is picked these numbers ✔ could change drastically Wisconsin

V.

Russ Feingold Ron Johnson (inc.) Former US Senator Wisconsin

Why the Democrats gain this seat: • The last time Democrat lost a Senate race in Illinois in a presidential election year was 1980 • Most recent poll shows Feingold leading Johnson (49%-37%) by a margin of 12% • Wisconsin is a D+2, giving close races a strong chance of falling Democrat

Why this could be wrong: • Senator Johnson is the incumbent, giving him a significant boost in the election

Russ Feingold ✔ Former US Senator Final Tally What now?

With so much time before November anything can happen, but hoping for more than one miracle may be too much to ask. Democrats need to take the Presidency to have any hope of regaining control of the Senate. Presidential Election

Hillary Clinton Ted Cruz John Kasich V. Former Secretary of State US Senator Governor of Ohio

Bernie Sanders Marco Rubio US Senator US Senator Businessman The Democratic Primary

State Hillary Bernie Super State Hillary Bernie Super Clinton Sanders Delegates Clinton Sanders Delegates IA 23 21 8 TX 147 75 29 NH 9 15 8 VT 0 16 10 NV 20 15 8 VA 62 33 14 SC 39 14 6 AS 4 2 5 AL 44 9 7 DA 4 9 4 AR 22 10 5 KS 10 23 4 CO 28 38 12 LA 37 14 8 GA 73 29 15 NE 10 15 5 MA 46 45 25 ME 9 16 5 MN 31 46 16 MI 63 67 17 OK 17 21 4 MS 32 4 5 TN 44 23 8 MP 4 2 5 The Democratic Primary

State Hillary Bernie Super Clinton Sanders Delegates FL 141 73 32 IL 78 78 26 MO 36 35 13 NC 60 47 14 OH 81 62 17 AZ 44 31 10 ID 5 18 4 UT 6 27 4 AK 3 13 4 HI 8 17 10 WA 27 74 17 Total 1264 1037 384 Democratic Delegates Left

State Pledged Super State Pledged Super Delegates Delegates Delegates Delegates WI 86 10 OR 61 13 WY 14 4 VI 7 5 NY 247 44 PR 60 7 CT 55 16 CA 475 73 DE 21 10 MT 21 6 MD 95 23 NJ 126 16 PA 189 21 NM 34 9 RI 24 9 ND 18 5 IN 83 9 SD 20 5 GU 7 5 DC 20 26 WV 29 8 UA 0 1 KY 55 5 Total 1747 330 State by State Predictions

Candidate WI WY NY CT DE MD PA RI IN GU WV KY OR VI PR CA Hillary 56 0 187 35 0 69 132 16 0 0 6 34 38 0 0 307 Clinton Bernie 25 0 46 10 0 17 35 6 0 0 20 14 16 0 0 120 Sanders Too Close 5 14 14 10 21 9 22 2 83 7 3 7 7 7 60 48 to Call Super 10 4 44 16 10 23 21 9 9 5 8 5 13 5 7 73 Delegates State by State Predictions

Candidate MT NJ NM ND SD DC TOTAL

Hillary Clinton 0 91 22 0 0 0 2257

Bernie Sanders 0 23 8 0 0 0 1377

Too Close to Call 21 12 4 18 20 20 414

Super Delegates 6 16 9 5 5 26 714 Democratic Nominee

Why Hillary gets the nomination? • Given the current polling data Hillary has 2257 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 1377 • Even if all undecided voters swung to Bernie he would still trail 2257-1791 • Hillary has more support from superdelegates, easily enough to push her over 2383

What could make this change? • Bernie Sanders consistently polls low, millennials favor Sanders and are less likely to have a landline and to not be on the do not call list Hillary Clinton • A major disruption in the status quo, such Former Secretary of State as a Hillary Clinton indictment The Republican Primary

State Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich State Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich IA 7 8 7 1 TX 48 104 3 0 NH 11 3 2 4 VT 8 0 0 8 SC 50 0 0 0 VA 17 8 16 5 NV 14 6 7 1 KS 9 24 6 1 AL 36 13 1 0 KY 17 15 7 7 AK 14 14 0 0 LA 18 18 5 0 AR 16 15 9 0 ME 9 12 0 2 GA 43 17 16 0 PR 0 0 23 0 MA 22 4 8 8 HI 11 7 1 0 MN 8 13 17 0 ID 12 20 0 0 OK 13 15 13 0 MI 25 17 0 17 TN 33 16 9 0 MS 25 15 0 0 The Republican Primary

State Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich VI 1 1 2 0 DC 0 0 10 9 GU 0 1 0 0 WY 1 9 1 0 FL 99 0 0 0 IL 54 9 0 6 MO 37 15 0 0 MP 9 0 0 0 NC 30 27 6 9 OH 0 0 0 66 AZ 58 0 0 0 UT 0 40 0 0 Total 755 466 169 144 Republican Delegates Left

State Delegates State Delegates WI 42 WA 44 NY 95 CA 172 CT 28 MT 27 DE 16 NJ 51 MD 38 NM 24 PA 71 ND 28 RI 19 SD 29 IN 57 Total 839 NE 36 WV 34 OR 28 State by State Predictions

Candidate WI NY CT DE MD PA RI IN NE WV OR WA CA MT NJ NM ND SD Total Donald 26 58 17 0 22 36 8 0 0 29 0 0 68 0 51 6 0 0 1076 Trump Ted 7 9 2 0 6 10 2 0 0 2 0 0 41 0 0 6 0 0 551 Cruz John 4 8 2 0 4 11 3 0 0 1 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 202 Kasich Too Close 5 20 7 16 6 14 6 57 36 2 28 44 38 27 0 12 28 29 375 to Call Republican Nominee

Why Trump gets the nomination? • Given the current polling data Trump has 1076 pledged delegates to the next closest, Cruz’s 551 • The 1076 number is an extremely conservative estimate leaving 375 delegates uncalled – if just more than a third of those swing Trump he can get the needed 1237

What could make this change? • Growing dissent within the party could lead to a contested convention – its not a given Trump will get the 1237 delegates needed to lock Donald Trump Businessman The Presidential Race

V

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Former Secretary of State Businessman The Presidential Race

Why Hillary wins? • Current polls show Hillary leading Trump in a general (50.0%-38.8%) by an average of 11.2% • Trump’s controversial statements likely make him unelectable and will serve to drive many Republicans not to vote and many Democrats to hit the polls

What could make this change? • Trump has proven a formidable political opponent that feeds on controversy, Hillary’s growing list of scandals may be all the cannon fodder he needs Hillary Clinton ✔ Former Secretary of State How the Democrats Rise Again

A Simple Strategy

1. Hold on to the Executive ✔ 2. Take back the Senate X Conclusion

• Despite being unlikely to take back the Senate the Democratic Party will make significant gains

• The Democrats are very likely to hold on to the Presidency, this means any tie in the Senate will swing their way

• While this election cycle seems to bode well for the Democrats, 2018 will have 24 Democratic Senators up for reelection