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Florida General Election Results and Political Forecast Report

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Florida General Election Results and Political Forecast Report Governmental Affairs NOVEMBER 2012 ALBANY Florida General Election Results and AMSTERDAM ATLANTA Political Forecast Report AUSTIN BOSTON The election results contained in this document are the Unofficial Results reported by CHICAGO the County Supervisors of Elections to the Secretary of State on election night. For the DALLAS most up-to-the-minute results, please visit the Florida Division of Elections website at http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/. DELAWARE DENVER FLORIDA ELECTIONS OVERVIEW FORT LAUDERDALE HOUSTON The Florida Constitution requires all Legislative and Congressional districts to be LAS VEGAS redrawn every ten years following the completion of the U.S. Census. Accordingly, LONDON* after almost a year of public hearings, the 2012 Legislature convened in January LOS ANGELES 2012 to pass new Congressional, state House, and state Senate plans based on the MEXICO CITY+ census, federal and state legal standards, citizen testimony, publicly-drawn maps, and open committee discussions. On March 9, the Supreme Court declared all House MIAMI districts valid but declared 8 of the 40 Senate districts invalid. As a result, an NEW JERSEY extraordinary apportionment session convened on March 14 to redraw the Senate NEW YORK map. The revised Senate map was approved by the Court on April 27, followed by ORANGE COUNTY the U.S. Department of Justice approval of the state House, Senate, and ORLANDO Congressional plans on April 30. Although the Florida Supreme Court approved all PALM BEACH COUNTY three plans, several voter rights groups have filed legal challenges that have yet to PHILADELPHIA be heard. PHOENIX As a result of redistricting, the 2012 elections were eventful with all 27 SACRAMENTO Congressional seats, 120 House and 40 Senate seats up for election. Although a SAN FRANCISCO number of incumbents and a few new candidates were unchallenged for their seat, SHANGHAI several races became very contentious. SILICON VALLEY TALLAHASSEE In the August primary, a number of races within each party were hotly-contested. TAMPA Three primary races remained in question for a several weeks until recounts and TEL AVIV^ litigation concluded. Several Republican primary races were particularly hard- TYSONS CORNER fought because of undertones about who the candidates would support as future WARSAW~ House Speaker or Senate President. On the Democratic side, two heated primaries decided whether the Senate Democratic Caucus would be more business-friendly WASHINGTON, D.C. than in past years. WHITE PLAINS The most significant outcome of the 2012 state legislative elections was the loss of the Republican super majorities in the House and Senate. The Republicans have Strategic Alliances with Independent Law Firms** dominated the House and Senate since the mid-1990s. When the Senate and House Reapportionment Committees began evaluating the U.S. Census numbers, it MILAN appeared almost impossible for Republicans to maintain their 81-39 advantage in ROME the House or their 28-12 advantage in the Senate. A super majority allows a chamber to waive procedural rules over the objections of the minority party, a move usually employed to pass particularly contentious legislation such as tort reform or tax breaks. 1 GREENBERG TRAURIG, LLP . ATTORNEYS AT LAW . WWW.GTLAW.COM Governmental Affairs NOVEMBER 2012 A significant shift was the dramatic gain made by Democrats along the I-4 Corridor in general, and Central Florida in particular. These demographic changes will certainly have long-term political consequences. Running in newly-drawn districts, a number of Republican incumbents lost, including Speaker Designate Chris Dorworth, Scott Plakon, Peter Nehr, and Shawn Harrison. Central Florida shifted further to the Democrats with the election of Linda Stewart over former Republican House member Bob Brooks, and Democrat Joe Saunders over Marco Pena. The final breakdown of the Senate for the 2013-14 Legislature, when the unofficial results were reported to the Secretary of State on November 6th was 26 Republicans to 14 Democrats. In the House, the breakdown was 76 Republicans to 44 Democrats. THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH No member of Florida’s Cabinet was up for re-election this cycle. However, the entire Cabinet, all of whom are Republicans, will be up for re-election in 2014. The current Cabinet consists of Governor Rick Scott (R), Attorney General Pam Bondi (R), Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater (R), and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R). THE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH SENATE Florida Senators generally serve four year terms. However, because it was a redistricting year, half will be up for re-election in 2014 with the other half up for re-election in 2016. Going into the 2012 elections, the breakdown of the Senate was 28 Republicans and 12 Democrats. Nine Senators were automatically elected to office because they drew no opposition. Further, a significant number of Senators running for re-election drew only nominal opposition and were easily re-elected. The most contentious race in the Senate pitted two sitting Senators - Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff (R-Ft. Lauderdale) and Sen. Maria Sachs (D-Delray) against each other in a newly-drawn Broward and Palm Beach county seat. Ultimately, Sen. Sachs won the seat. Overall, the Democrats picked up two seats which kept the Republicans from a supermajority. When the County Supervisors of Elections reported the Unofficial Election Results to the Secretary of State on November 6th the breakdown of the 2013-14 Florida Senate was 26-14. The Florida Senate Re-elected members are indicated in bold. Senators representing even-numbered districts will be up for re-election in two years (2014); Senators representing odd-numbered districts will be up for re-election in four years (2016). District Winner % Win Background and Potential Session Focus 1 Gaetz, Don (R) Retired School Superintendent; incoming Senate 74.45% President (2013-14); formerly represented Senate District 4 2 Evers, Greg (R) 100% Farmer; formerly represented Senate District 2 3 CEO FL Association of District School Montford, Bill (D) 72.78% Superintendents; formerly represented Senate District 3 4 Bean, Aaron (R) 62.72% Bank Relationship Development Officer; former 2 GREENBERG TRAURIG, LLP . ATTORNEYS AT LAW . WWW.GTLAW.COM Governmental Affairs NOVEMBER 2012 District Winner % Win Background and Potential Session Focus Representative 5 Dean, Charles S. (R) Unopposed Formerly represented Senate District 3 6 Thrasher, John (R) Former House Speaker; former General Counsel of 58.78% Florida Medical Association; formerly represented Senate District 8 7 Bradley, Rob (R) 57.78% Attorney 8 Hukill, Dorothy (R) 57.04% Attorney 9 Gibson, Audrey (D)) Public relations consultant; formerly represented 63.56% Senate District 1 10 Simmons, David (R) Environmental, land use, real property, and probate 55.59% attorney; formerly represented Senate District 22 11 Hays, Alan (R) Retired dentist; formerly represented Senate 71.57% District 20 12 Thompson, Geraldine Current Representative 69.06% (D) 13 Gardiner, Andy (R) VP of External Affairs for Orlando Health; formerly 55.54% represented Senate District 9 14 Soto, Darren (D) 70% Attorney; current Representative 15 Stargel, Kelli (R) 58.54% Investor property manager; current Representative Building contractor; consultant; formerly 16 Altman, Thad (R) 62.86% represented Senate District 24. 17 Legg, John (R) Unopposed Educator; current Representative 18 Simpson, Wilton (R) Unopposed Egg farmer; contractor Joyner, Arthenia (D) Real property probate and trust attorney; formerly 19 Unopposed represented Senate District 18 Latvala, Jack (R) Owner of direct mail company; formerly 20 57.92% represented Senate District 16 21 Grimsley, Denise (R) 57.31% Registered nurse; current Representative 22 Brandes, Jeff (R) 100% Real estate developer; current Representative 23 Richter, Garrett (R) Unopposed Banker; formerly represented Senate District 37 24 Lee, Tom (R) 54.16% VP of Sabal Homes, Florida; former Senate President 25 Abruzzo, Joseph (D) 57.44% Businessman; current Representative 26 Galvano, Bill (R) 59.1 Attorney; former Representative 27 Clemens, Jeff (D) 100% Energy contractor; current Representative Mortgage Broker; formerly represented Senate 28 Detert, Nancy (R) Unopposed District 23 Entrepreneur; former Yahoo executive; formerly 29 Ring, Jeremy (D) 64.32% represented Senate District 32 Benacquisto, Lizbeth Realtor and special events coordinator; formerly 30 62.37% (R) represented Senate District 27 31 Smith, Chis (D) 84.55% Attorney; formerly represented Senate District 29 32 Negron, Joe (R) 60.41% Attorney; formerly represented Senate District 28 3 GREENBERG TRAURIG, LLP . ATTORNEYS AT LAW . WWW.GTLAW.COM Governmental Affairs NOVEMBER 2012 District Winner % Win Background and Potential Session Focus President of a skin care company; formerly 33 Sobel, Eleanor (D) 67.67% represented Senate District 31 Attorney; formerly represented Senate District 30; 34 Sachs, Maria (D) 52.7% beat current Republican Senator Ellyn Bogdanoff for this open seat Realtor; former Senate President; formerly 35 Margolis, Gwen (D) 62.02% represented Senate District 35 Former Vice Mayor; formerly represented Senate 36 Braynon, II, Oscar (D) Unopposed District 33 Attorney; Director of Community Partnerships for 37 Flores, Anitere (R) Unopposed FIU; formerly represented Senate District 38 Vice President External Affairs for Mercy Hospital; 38 Garcia, Rene (R) Unopposed formerly represented Senate District 40 39 Bullard, Dwight (D) 70.27% Current Representative, teacher
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