Inbox: Will Salazar return to the rotation? By Jordan Bastian MLB.com @MLBastian @BennyTheJet2017 Sort out the bullpen/rotation logjam when Salazar is healthy. Will he start off at AAA & have to earn spot? Would it be rotation or bullpen spot? If he comes back, who gets sent down? #indiansinbox The first issue here is Danny Salazar's timeline for return. The Indians have taken a very conservative approach to Salazar's comeback from right shoulder inflammation -- an issue that flared up in January -- so it is hard to project when the righty might be a viable option for the MLB rotation. The good thing here is that he has been honest with the Indians about how he has felt rather than pushing through discomfort.

When Salazar is built up again for a starting role, the next step would be a Minor League rehab stint. That is the only scenario in which the hard-throwing righty would be at Triple-A. Remember, Salazar, 28, is out of options. So, once he is healthy and ready to be activated, he must join Cleveland's big league roster. It's impossible to predict what else might be going on with the MLB rotation when that time comes.

If everyone is healthy and pitching well -- the perfect-world scenario that every team dreams about -- I could see Cleveland continuing to allow Salazar to take his time on a rehab assignment. Then, the debate about starting vs. relieving might come into play. Earlier this spring, Terry Francona said Salazar could be "lights out" as a reliever, but he noted that the also performs better with a routine schedule. That's difficult to do in the bullpen.

So, this would likely come down to what is going on in the rotation when Salazar needs to be activated. Is one of the other struggling? Is there someone else banged up and need of a trip to the DL? Would one of the other starters be better suited for a move to the bullpen to clear room for Salazar? Mike Clevinger and Josh Tomlin have worked out of the 'pen in the past.

Right now, the only certainty is Salazar starting the season on the shelf. The other answers will come later on.

The Indians are pretty excited about catching prospects Francisco Mejia (No. 1 on the Tribe's Top 30 prospects list, per MLB Pipeline) and Eric Haase (No, 20), too. And, given the recent release of veteran Ryan Hanigan, who was in camp as a non-roster invitee, Mejia and Haase look like the next-man-up candidates in the event of an injury to either Roberto Perez or .

Indians first-base Sandy Alomar Jr., who doubles as the team's catching instructor, has been impressed by the defensive strides made by both Mejia and Haase. Here are some of Francona's recent comments on the ' skills behind the plate:

On Mejia... "Sandy's been working with a lot on his transfer," Francona said. "He's got a really strong arm. He's been trying to clean up his transfer a little bit. But, like most young catchers, experience is the biggest thing. Running a game, learning how to guide a pitcher through a tough , and things like that. He's got all the physical tools that you'd ever want."

On Haase...

"[Sandy] really enjoys him," Francona said. "He thinks that, although he doesn't have like Perez and Gomes arm strength, he's got plenty of arm. But, he's so receptive at the plate. He's getting better at receiving. He's fine back there and he cares about running the game and all the things you're looking for in a . He does a really good job."

They will be splitting up the catching duties at Columbus. I wouldn't expect it to be a traditional starter-backup type of distribution. Plus, Cleveland plans on having Mejia get some action in the outfield early on this season. Given the presence of Perez and Gomes, and how highly the Indians value Mejia's offensive abilities, the team is exploring ways to potentially expedite the prospect's path to the Majors.

Will the way the free-agent period played out this offseason have any effect on the likelihood that or Cody Allen will sign an extension? -- Andy L., Aurora, Colo.

As tough as this offseason was for many free agents, the relief market was mostly exempt from the issues. A lot of setup-type relievers earned multi-year contracts over the winter. Former Tribe reliever Bryan Shaw, for example, netted a three-year, $27 million contract with the Rockies. That means Shaw has the same average salary as the one Miller ($9 million) will have this year with Cleveland. So, given the current market for impact relievers, it still seems likely that Miller and Allen will free agency next offseason.

When looking at the players on the roster bubble without Minor League options or opportunity (Erik Gonzalez, Giovanny Urshela and Ryan Merritt, for example), do you see the Indians being able to deal for any value in return? -- Dan C., San Diego

Sure. If those players don't make the active roster, and don't wind up on the disabled list to start the season, they would need to be exposed to waivers before a potential trip to the Minor Leagues. The issue with trying to trade players in that situation is that the other 29 teams know they will be up for grabs via waivers, so it's difficult to net a great return in those kind of deals. The Indians would likely see what interest there might be among teams who are lower in the waiver-priority list.

Do you think the Indians will explore trading Gomes or Perez to the Brewers after the injury? It seems like a good opportunity to clear up some playing time for Mejia. -- Mitchell M., Lima, Ohio

That doesn't seem realistic, no. While Mejia is polished as a hitter, the Indians still feel he has work to do on the defensive side of things. With a veteran pitching staff serving as the backbone of a team with its sights set on winning the , Cleveland loves its MLB tandem of Perez and Gomes. Mejia will likely be up with the Indians at some point this year, but it won't be on unless something unexpected happens. @sean_lynsk What will be the Tribes 7 8 9 inning pitching rotation. Who is the bridge to Cody?

Allen will once again get the bulk of the opportunities as Cleveland's , with Miller serving as the high-leverage weapon. That said, there could be times where they swap roles, depending on the situation or if Francona feels the workload needs to be eased for one of the relievers. For the setup role, expect Francona to do a lot of mixing and matching. Tyler Olson will handle mostly left-handed batters. Francona loves Nick Goody for righties. The manager calls Dan Otero his "wild card," meaning he can come in at any point for any situation. Zach McAllister will likely get more high-leverage chances now that Shaw is no longer in the fold. What you won't see if Francona designating specific pitchers for specific innings. @ShoelessJoeHQ #IndiansInbox: Does Ben Taylor have a shot at getting some higher leverage innings at some point this year? How does the FO view him?

Right now, Ben Taylor provides the Indians with some experienced depth. One of the reasons they acquired him from the Red Sox earlier this spring was due to his having a pair of Minor League options. The team feels Taylor still has some development left, but he's been in the big leagues, so that gives the club a nice layer of depth behind the Major League bullpen.

Cleveland Indians pitcher Josh Tomlin inspired by his father -- Terry Pluto By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer [email protected] GOODYEAR, Arizona -- In the Tomlin family, people don't quit. Just look at Josh Tomlin, who pitched his way into the 's best starting rotation primarily because of determination and perspiration. The righthander has come back from major elbow and shoulder surgeries. He's had to prove scouts and coaches wrong for thinking a 6-foot righthander with a below-average would have no big league future. He was the 581st pick in the 2006 draft. In the minors, every year he'd open the season in the bullpen because the bigger, stronger and higher- priced prospects were supposed to be the starters. But within a few months, Tomlin would pitch his way into the rotation and win games. He did it over and over, year after year. He has a 56-28 minor league record with a 3.14 ERA. He was a "fringe prospect" with "below average stuff" who shouldn't even have made the Majors, much less be in his eighth season with the Tribe. But here is Tomlin at the age of 33, defying the odds with his 88-mph fastball and perhaps the best control in the majors. Last season, he had only 14 walks -- compared to 26 starts! No way should Tomlin have a 59-48 career record with the Tribe, but he does. "That comes from my father," said Tomlin. "He said never back down from anybody. And he said if you get knocked down, then get back up." MOVING FORWARD A conversation about pitching turned to Jerry Tomlin, Josh's 59-year-old father. "This is a big week for my dad," he said. That's because Jerry Tomlin is close to getting his driver's license. That sounds strange unless you know the story. In August of 2016, Jerry Tomlin was working at a power plant when he began to feel some numbness. Turned out he had a rare disease called arteriovenous malformation. It's when there are problems with the blood vessels and the spinal cord. "He is paralyzed from the chest down," said Tomlin. "He still has no feeling there -- but that won't stop him." Jerry and his wife Elena Tomlin shocked doctors by attending Game 3 of the to watch Josh pitch against the . Jerry had been released from the hospital only three days earlier. "They told him not go to that World Series game," said Tomlin, his voice cracking a bit. But the father who played catch with his young son in the backyard as they both pretended to be pitching in the World Series was not about to miss the real thing. "It's that unconditional love," said Tomlin. "Now that I have my own kids -- daughters Makenzie (3) and Myla (2) -- I understand it even more." Tomlin talked about that World Series Game 3 in Chicago when he pitched 4 2/3 scoreless innings in what became 1-0 victory over the Cubs. "When I felt the pressure, I stepped back and thought of him being there," said Tomlin. "Then I had this calm feeling on the mound. "Even now, I think about how I'm trying to win a game -- and here he is, trying to walk again. That helps me." THE BIG LESSON Jerry Tomlin has been given almost zero chance of walking again, but he still has that goal. "My father got dealt a tough hand," said Tomlin. "But he's not moping around, not feeling sorry for himself." In the meantime, he has been working to coordinate his hands and learn to drive a special car for those in wheelchairs. "He needs to pass one more test," said Tomlin. The pitcher sounded as excited as his father was when Josh took the Wrigley Field mound for the World Series. Tomlin said he talks to his dad at least once a day. "He doesn't gripe and moan," said Tomlin. "He keeps asking me how I'm doing. He's that way." And when Tomlin begins to feel sorry for himself, he stops -- fast. "How can I do that?" he asked. "Not after watching all that he's going through." Cleveland Plain Dealer LOADED: 03.21.2018

What's the trick in assuming who will make the Cleveland Indians' 25-man roster? Hey, Hoynsie By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com [email protected] GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- Do you have a question that you'd like to have answered in Hey, Hoynsie? Submit it here or Tweet him at @hoynsie.

Hey, Hoynsie: Assuming Brandon Guyer and Michael Brantley aren't on the opening day roster, and assuming Giovanny Urshela gets the utility spot, who gets the last three roster slots among Yandy Diaz, Melvin Upton, Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis? - Ben, Charlotte, N.C.

Hey, Ben: One of my old sports editors told me to never assume anything. A case in point, as I'm sure you know by now, Upton was released and Diaz was optioned to Class AAA Columbus. Urshela, meanwhile, left Wednesday's game with a tight right hamstring.

Rajai Davis returns to the Indians However, I think it would be safe to assume Guyer won't be on the opening day roster, but Brantley may. Naquin has had a good spring, but I'd like his chances much better if he hit right-handed. Davis, as manager Terry Francona said recently, is in a good spot.

Hey, Hoynsie: Do you think a package including Danny Salazar or Ryan Merritt, Erik Gonzalez and Tyler Naquin could convince San Diego to part with reliever ? It would fortify the bullpen for this year and be a hedge for next year. - Mitch, Lewis Center.

Hey, Mitch: An interesting thought. Hand is talented, signed through 2020 with an option for 2021 and the Indians could be in the market for a closer if Cody Allen and Andrew Miller file for free agency at the end of 2018. But if I'm San Diego, I don't know if I'm interested in trading Hand. After all they just signed to a multiyear deal so they must think they're getting close to contending.

If Salazar was healthy, I don't think the Indians would give him up in a one-for-one deal. Merritt and Gonzalez are out of options so the Padres could wait to see what the Indians do with them at the end of camp and try to make a waiver claim on them. Maybe they'd bite for a Mike Clevinger-Naquin package.

It's just hard for me to trade a healthy and effective for a reliever who is going to pitch 60 to 70 innings in a season. But that's just me.

Hey, Hoynsie: I know the budget is stretched thin, but why didn't the Indians make a at Mike Moustakas? The Royals re-signed him for nothing. His bat would have looked great in their lineup. - Kurt, Elyria.

Hey, Kurt: Moustakas would have been an interesting addition to the lineup even though he would make the Indians more left-handed heavy than they already are. But as you said, the budget has been stretched thin. Hey, Hoynsie: Do you think the Indians should keep Alexi Ogando? He's had a great spring to this point. - Kenneth Heil, Farmington, N.M.

Hey, Kenneth: Ogando has pitched well this spring. I think he has a chance to make the club as a reliever, but he's told the Indians he would like to start. Perhaps if he doesn't make the club as a reliever, they could make a deal with him to go to Class AAA Columbus and start so the rotation would have some protection.

Seven teams are near-locks to make the playoffs. Which of them is the most vulnerable? By Cliff Corcoran 2h ago 4 Opening Day is a week from Thursday, and while the usual excitement for the start of the season is amplified this year by the prospect of The Athletic’s expanded baseball coverage, it is tempered somewhat by the relative lack of suspense the 2018 season appears to offer. As things stand heading into the final week of , we have every reason to believe that we already know the identity of seven of this year’s ten playoff teams. The Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, Nationals, Red Sox and Yankees, each of which made the postseason last year, all look like locks to return. However, if history is any indication, there is a good chance that at least one of them won’t.

If all of those teams do get back to the playoffs, it will mark the first time in major league history that seven teams returned to the postseason from the year before. That has only been possible since 1996, the second full season in which eight teams made the playoffs. Still, in the 22 seasons since then, six teams have returned to the postseason from the year before on just two occasions, 1999 and 2005. In both years, that was six repeating teams out of eight, or 75 percent, a higher rate of return than the 70 percent that this year’s Big Seven would represent. Still, those seasons are outliers.

During the 16 seasons of consecutive eight-team playoff fields, the average rate of return from the previous year’s postseason was 51 percent. Since the field expanded to 10 teams in 2012, the average rate of return has dropped to 46 percent. Similarly, the average repeat rate of division winners since baseball realigned into three divisions has been just 45 percent. Only twice before have five division winners repeated: 1999 and 2017.

So, yes, the Big Seven could all repeat. Heck, all six division winners could repeat. However, given the nature of baseball, the long season, injuries, the frequency with which the worst teams are able to beat the best teams, and the large role that luck and timing play in the game on both the micro and macro level, it seems very possible — even likely — that one of this year’s Big Seven will fall short of the postseason.

Which of those seven teams is most likely to succumb to entropy? Let’s take them from least to most likely:

Houston Astros

The defending World Champions are simply too good to have to worry about falling short of the playoffs. Their departed players — Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki, Mike Fiers, , , Michael Feliz, and — were collectively more than a win below replacement level as Astros last year. Replacing them will be a full season of (who didn’t make his Astros debut until September 5 last year), , Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, and any of a number of impressive young players the organization still possesses in the upper minors. Both and Baseball Prospectus project the Astros to have the majors’ best record this year, with a win total very close to their 101 from a year ago. Entering the season, they seem more likely to win 20 more games than the AL's sixth-best team than to be the AL's sixth-best team.

Chicago Cubs

Last year was a season of growing pains for the would-be Cubs dynasty, yet they still won 92 games, repeated as division champions and made it back to the Championship Series for a third straight year. This year, they’re swapping out the declining Jake Arrieta for , and the aging John Lackey for an upside play on the 28-year-old Tyler Chatwood, a groundballer they hope will flourish in front of their slick-fielding infielders. They will also get a full season of July 2017 addition José Quintana. Meanwhile, is the only hitter ticketed for the Opening Day Roster who is older than 28. One can be skeptical about Joe Maddon’s praise for his bullpen and still think the Cubs look like the team to beat in the NL, once again.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians are the only one of the Big Seven that took a step backward over the offseason. They lost first baseman Carlos Santana, set-up man Bryan Shaw, Austin Jackson and deadline addition Jay Bruce to free agency. Of those four, they only replaced Santana, and poorly at that, with Yonder Alonso, who struggles against left-handed pitching and hit more than a third of his career-high 28 home runs last year in May. Alonso is Cleveland’s only notable addition, though the team is hoping for more from Jason Kipnis and sophomore Bradley Zimmer, both of whom are coming off injury-shortened seasons. Still, Cleveland’s path to a third straight first-place finish appears to be clear given that it runs through the majors’ weakest division. The Tigers, White Sox and Royals all have a good chance to lose 90 games, while the Twins’ improvements appear less impressive the closer you look. Cleveland may not finish with another triple-digit win total, but it should still win the Central by at least 10 games.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals’ position is similar to that of the Indians. They’re simply too good a team in too weak a division not to cruise to a third straight division title. Washington does enter the season with some questions about its rotation depth, with its fifth spot open and still recovering from July 2017 Tommy John surgery. However, the Nats also open the season with arguably the best bullpen they’ve had in the Bryce Harper-era, with 2017 in-season additions , Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler still in place, and veteran Joaquin Benoit adding depth. They’ve also strengthened their bench by adding and bringing back versatile deadline addition , who will likely open the season at second base while gets up to game speed. Meanwhile, returns from a season largely lost to injury to replace the aging Jayson Worth in left field. Add the potential of a healthy and a walk-year Harper, both in their age- 25 seasons, and the likelihood of deadline reinforcements as the organization tries to cash in on what might be Harper’s final season in D.C. with a World Series, and it’s difficult to imagine even an uncharacteristically healthy Mets team or an ahead-of-schedule Phillies club knocking Washington off its perch.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Yes, it took this long to get to the Dodgers, a team that won 104 games and the NL pennant last year and that Baseball Prospectus projects to be the best team in the league again this season. Yes, the Dodgers have won five straight division titles despite myriad injuries, particularly the last two seasons under Dave Roberts, who continues to look like one of the very best managers in baseball. Yes, their lineup is nearly as young as the Cubs’, is still the best inning-for-inning starting pitcher in the game, and Kenley Jansen may be the best closer in baseball. Yes, they have impressive depth on the bench (which will be tested immediately by Justin Turner’s fractured wrist) and a potential ace in Triple A in top prospect Walker Buehler. Yet their rotation, which saw no pitcher surpass Kershaw’s 175 innings last year, is a potential house of cards. In addition, they have an underwhelming relief corps in front of Jansen. Those concerns might be easier to dismiss in the AL Central or the NL East, but in an NL West division which may only have one truly bad team—a Padres club that still improved over the winter and has maturing young talent—the Dodgers look like one of the most vulnerable of the Big Seven.

New York Yankees

The Yankees and Red Sox are the two most vulnerable of these teams, in large part because they have each other. As things stand, the AL East should be the majors’ most fiercely-contested division. One of those two teams will have to settle for no better than a wild-card berth, and if the Angels and Twins both meet their fans’ expectations, if the Blue Jays bounce back from an injury-riddled season, or if another team in the West surprises, things could get interesting for the weaker of these two age-old rivals. The Yankees’ point of weakness is their rotation. They have depth for days in the lineup and bullpen, but CC Sabathia will turn 38 in July, the health of Masahiro Tanaka’s ulnar collateral ligament remains an ever-present concern, and Tanaka, Luis Severino and Sonny Gray have all had an ERA of 4.74 or higher in one of the last two seasons.

Boston Red Sox

The Big Seven team in the weakest position heading into 2018 season is clearly the Red Sox, who may have won the AL East last year, but had a third-order record of just 88-74 and outscored only the Dodgers among these seven teams while finishing last in the AL in home runs for the first time since 1993. Boston made the necessary upgrade to its lineup this winter by adding J.D. Martinez as its , and should be able to expect more from its youngest bats—including Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. Still, the underside of the bullpen is soft, the bench is thin and question marks abound in the rotation behind ace Chris Sale. David Price has a lot to prove coming off an injury-plagued season that found him bounced to the bullpen down the stretch. Rick Porcello’s follow up to his Cy Young season looked more like his unfortunate 2015 campaign. , always a health concern, has been plagued by a flexor strain this spring, and the fifth spot remains up for grabs with Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright both rehabbing knee injuries.

Of course, any of the other 23 teams in baseball would kill for the Red Sox’s problems, and all seven of these teams remain heavy favorites to return to the postseason. Still, as difficult as it is to believe right now, it is more likely than not that at least one of these teams will be watching from home in October. In that way, the presence of the Big Seven lends a different kind of suspense to the season to come.