Status of Cubans Dario Moreno Inc. Summary

• Cuban Americans are in the process of a secular realignment, moving away from the GOP and towards the Democrats. • This realignment will likely be accelerated by the nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for President. • Among the Cuban American base Trump only has 37% • By comparison, Hillary Clinton is within striking range at 31% • Support for the hardline policy toward no longer unifies the community as it once did for a generation (1980-2008). Summary (2)

• Despite these changes, the four most prominent Miami-Dade politicians remain overwhelming popular among Cuban Americans: • Tomas Regalado 77% favorable • Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 74% favorable • Lincoln Diaz-Balart 73% favorable • Marco Rubio 72% favorable • Significantly, among Cuban American voters, Senator Marco Rubio is the Cuban American that they most admire and respect. • Among civic leaders Modesto Madique, the President Emeritus of International University, was the Cuban American most respected and admired. Methodology

• Poll was conducted April 21-23, 2016 • 400 likely Cuban voters who voted in at least one out of the previous five elections. • Gender: 42% male, 58% Female • Language: 85% Spanish, 15% English • 60% arrived in the U.S. after 1980 • 50% are under 55 years old • 21% are over 75 years old Cuba Issue

• The hardline Cuban consensus is beginning to breakdown. The Cuban community has become extremely divided over the direction of Cuban policy • 41% of Cuban Americans support the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Cuba while 52% oppose it. • Young Cubans (18-35) support diplomatic recognition 61% to 35%. • Older Cubans (over 75) oppose it 30% to 64%. • Newly arrived Cubans (after 92) support the policy 59% to 30%. • While more established Cubans (before 1980) oppose the policy 21% to 71%. Re-establishing U.S. Cuban Ties

Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly Oppose Overall 23% 18% 12% 40% Democrats 57% 18% 7% 11% GOP 13% 17% 15% 49% NPA 23% 21% 6% 40% 18-35 25% 36% 5% 30% 36-54 29% 18% 12% 42% 55-65 31% 10% 22% 23% 66-75 15% 7% 12% 59% Over 75 13% 17% 10% 54% Arrive before 1980 13% 8% 16% 55% Arrive after 1992 36% 23% 6% 24% Carnival Issue

• Nearly half of the Cuban electorate (49%) supported the Mayor Gimenez’s stance regarding Carnival Cruise Line’s discrimination against Cuban-Americans, while 30% opposed the mayor’s action. • Most of the opposition was among those that oppose any relationship with Cuba. • Overall, the mayor’s position against discrimination by Carnival strengthened him among Cuban Americans Presidential Race

• Trump has only 37% support among likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County. • This is the lowest in history that any potential Republican candidate polls among this traditionally loyal demographic. • Hillary Clinton is at 31% • Younger Cubans and those who arrived in the recently (after 1992) are the most likely to abandon the GOP. Presidential Race: 2016

Clinton Trump Not Vote Undecided Overall 31% 37% 9% 23% Democrats 77% 7% 1% 15% GOP 18% 48% 11% 23% NPA 32% 29% 9% 29% 18-35 41% 34% 4% 21% 36-54 35% 39% 7% 19% 55-65 33% 28% 18% 22% 66-75 22% 46% 8% 25% Over 75 24% 36% 12% 29% Arrive before 1980 16% 48% 9% 27% Arrive after 1992 47% 27% 6% 20% Name Recognition

• Despite their rejection of Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, local republicans are still extremely popular among Cuban American in Miami Dade County • Tomas Regalado 77% favorable • Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 74% favorable • Lincoln Diaz-Balart 73% favorable • Marco Rubio 72% favorable • Carlos Gimenez 59% favorable Name Recognition (2)

• Local politicians and celebrities such as Emilio and Gloria Estefan are viewed far more favorably by their fellow Cuban Americans than businessmen and educators. • The poll also tested a group of Cuban Americans that were recently proclaimed as “legends” in 2013 by Miami Today, the weekly newspaper. • The businessmen tested (Armando Codina, Joe Arriola, Carlos Saladrigas, Paul Cejas, Jorge Perez and Adolfo Henriques) scored lower when compared to elected officials. Name Recognition: Overall

Very Favorable Very Unfavorable Very Don’t Favorable Favorable + Unfavorable Know Favorable Regalado 35% 43% 78% 7% 5% 12% Estefans 34% 41% 75% 7% 5% 13% Ros- 38% 36% 74% 8% 8% 11% Lehtinen Diaz-Balart 35% 38% 73% 9% 8% 11% Rubio 42% 30% 72% 11% 11% 7% Gimenez 14% 45% 59% 12% 7% 23% Name Recognition: Overall

Very Favorable Very Unfavorable Very Don’t Favorable Favorable + Unfavorable Know Favorable Padron 11% 13% 24% 2% 2% 71% Maidique 10% 13% 23% 3% 2% 72% Codina 4% 10% 14% 2% 3% 75% Arriola 2% 9% 11% 5% 9% 75% Saladrigas 2% 5% 7% 5% 9% 79% Henriques 2% 3% 5% 1% 1% 93% Educators

• The two most prominent Cuban American educators, Modesto Maidique and Eduardo Padron, did significantly better than all the Cuban American businessmen. • Modesto Maidique, the President Emeritus of Florida International University and Eduardo Padron, the President of Miami-Dade College were the most admired after the local politicians and the Estefans. • Maidique is relatively well know among Cubans born in the U.S. and those between 18-35 who may have attended FIU, though he retired as president in 2009. • Padron is better known among older Cuban Americans because of his long years of services to the community. Name Recognition: Modesto Maidique Very Favorable Very Unfavorable Very Don’t Favorable Favorable + Unfavorable Know Favorable Overall 10% 13% 23% 3% 2% 72% 18-35 11% 7% 18% 2% 4% 77% 36-54 8% 14% 22% 2% 2% 74% 55-65 8% 20% 28% 4% 2% 67% 66-75 12% 12% 24% 5% 1% 69% Over 75 12% 10% 22% 4% 2% 73% Born in US 12% 19% 31% 5% 7% 57% Name Recognition: Eduardo Padron Very Favorable Very Unfavorable Very Don’t Favorable Favorable + Unfavorable Know Favorable Overall 10% 13% 23% 3% 2% 72% 18-35 7% 4% 11% 2% NA 88% 36-54 12% 13% 25% 1% 1% 74% 55-65 10% 14% 24% 4% 73% 66-75 9% 19% 28% 5% 3% 65% Over 75 14% 17% 31% 4% 4% 62% U.S. Born 2% 10% 12% 7% 2% 72% Open Ended

• Cuban American voters also favored local politicians and celebrities like the Estefans over other prominent Cuban Americans. • Again, the most admired and respected tended to be the local politicians and the Estefans. • None of the businessmen had any significant support. • While Maidique and Padron scored in the low single digits, they followed the politicians as the most respected and admired Cuban Americans. Open Ended

First Second Total Marco Rubio 16.5% 5.6% 22% Lincoln Diaz-Balart 10.6% 6.6% 17% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 7.3% 7.6% 14.9% Estefans 8.4% 3.5% 11.9% Tomas Regalado 2.3% 3.3% 5.6% Ted Cruz 1.8% 2.5% 4.3% Carlos Gimenez 1.3% 1.5% 2.8% Andy Garcia 1.5% .5% 2% Modesto Maidique 1.0% .7% 1.7% Carlos Curberlo .8% .5% 1.3% Ed Padron .5% .5% Armando Codina .5% .5% Most Admired and Respected Cuban American

• Clearly Marco Rubio is the most admired and respected Cuban American. • He is followed by two long time congressman (Diaz Balart and Ros- Lehtinen). • The Estefans were the only non-politicians among the top five most admired and respected. • Maidique and Padron again were more admired and respected than the Cuban American businessmen. Score: Politicians and Celebrities

Name Recognition score Open ended score Score Marco Rubio 50 66 116 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 56 51 107 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 58 44.7 102.7 Estefans 63 35.7 98.7 Tomas Regalado 66 11.2 77.2 Carlos Gimenez 44 8.4 52.4 Score: Civil Leaders

Name Recognition score Open ended score Score Modesto Maidique 18 5.1 23.1 Eduardo Padron 20 2 22 Armando Codina 9 2 11 All others below 5