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his month, the Indian Republic turns a stately 70 methods of governance. The criminal justice system is crying years. As we enter the third decade of the millennium, out for reform where the guilty are punished expeditiously and the focus of our policymakers will hopefully continue those charged don’t languish in jail indefinitely. No country has T to be as enshrined in the opening lines of the Pre- developed without a robust, comprehensive education system, amble to the Constitution—We, the People of India. especially in the fast-changing world of today. Sadly, ours is in That focus will be highlighted in this decade when India a mess. We produce unemployable graduates. The problem will outstrip China to become the world’s most populous is further aggravated in a shrinking economy where jobs are country in addition to being the world’s largest democracy. scarce. The much-talked-about demographic disaster is upon The problems we face today are of a magnitude several times us unless we get serious about reform. greater than those faced by the Republic’s founders seven de- Our special issue, ‘Future Visions 2020’, curated by Man- cades ago. Ensuring a population larger than that of the entire aging Editor Kai Friese, looks at some of the biggest chal- African continent gets access to health, sanitation, security lenges that the country is likely to face in this new decade. and livelihood will be a formidable challenge. Our panel of domain experts look at the past to understand The resources to fund these development goals can come the big trends in the areas of economy, agriculture, politics, only from an economy running at full steam. Hence, the tar- geopolitics, national security, environment, demography and get of the 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024 set by the Modi urban development. government last year becomes critical. It is not just a vote- catching gimmick but essential for solving India’s unique uthor Arun Mohan Sukumar examines how the politi- set of problems. It is a humungous challenge as the Indian cal calculations of the State will make or mar the pros- economy is grossly underperforming. Economic growth has A pects for technological growth in the country. NITI touched a six-year low. The agriculture sector continues to Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant elaborates on why India needs to grow sluggishly. Farming employs 58 per cent of India’s work urgently shed its tag of being a reluctant urbaniser. Former force, yet accounts for only 14 per cent of GDP. The diminish- Northern Army Commander Lt Gen. D.S. Hooda looks at the ing returns from the fields have caused a mass migration of challenges of preparing for, and indeed preventing, a future people towards the cities in search of live- war. Senior journalist Rajdeep Sardesai lihoods. An estimated 350 million people considers the consequences of Hindutva will move to India’s already overcrowded political consolidation in the next decade. urban spaces by 2030. India needs 500 Investment banker Jahangir Aziz predicts new cities to absorb them. It has so far how a modest global economy recovery built only two since Independence. in 2020 will give India the much-needed There are other worries. An increase in space to reform without worrying about global temperatures has seen polar icecaps adverse external shocks. Scholar Swaga- melting and sea levels rising. The years to Sarkar speculates on the future of the between 2014 and 2019 are the warmest peasantry, while former diplomat T.C.A. five years on record. Climate change, fu- Raghavan examines India’s options in a elled by industrialisation, is now a reality. time of global flux. Climate change expert It could extract catastrophic social costs Navroz Dubash looks at India’s choices from countries like India that depend on Jan. 22, 2018 in a warming world, economist Chinmay natural resources for their livelihoods. Tumbe explains how if fiscal federalism Millions of persons could be displaced as water levels rise was the key bone of contention in the past decade, demo- and weather patterns are disrupted—not to mention the GDP. graphic federalism is likely to be the important issue of the The rise of China and its close collaboration with Paki- next decade. Author B.V.R. Subbu comments on the future of stan, both of them nuclear-armed, poses fresh economic transport in the 2020s, women and gender studies professor and strategic problems for Indian policymakers. The right- Banu Subramaniam strikes a warning note when she says ward turn in Indian politics, too, brings new challenges to Hindutva futurism could see India march back into the past one of the world’s most ethnically diverse democracies and and public health specialist K. Srinath Reddy writes on the its institutions. future of healthcare this coming decade. The problems are not temporary but structural and, unless As the saying goes, the future is what you make of it. Let’s they are addressed, the decade ahead looks bleak for India. hope we make it a bright one. At the moment, we are stumbling and blundering along. The powers that be, and that doesn’t mean the central government alone, have to work together to bring about some fundamental reforms. And not only in the economy but also in our outdated (Aroon Purie) UPFRONT LEISURE CAA PROTESTS ARTS, FILMS, MUSIC www.indiatoday.in ENGULF U.P. PG 3 IN 2020 PG 51

CHAIRMAN AND EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Aroon Purie VICE CHAIRPERSON: Kalli Purie CDS, A RADICAL Q&A WITH GROUP EDITORIAL DIRECTOR: Raj Chengappa MILITARY ZOYA AKHTAR GROUP CREATIVE EDITOR: Nilanjan Das; GROUP PHOTO EDITOR: Bandeep Singh BUREAUCRAT PG 6 PG 58 MANAGING EDITORS: Kai Jabir Friese, Rajesh Jha CONSULTING EDITOR: Ajit Kumar Jha (Research) INSIDE EXECUTIVE EDITORS: S. Sahaya Ranjit, Sandeep Unnithan Mumbai: M.G. Arun SENIOR DEPUTY EDITORS: Uday Mahurkar, Manisha Saroop Hyderabad: Amarnath K. Menon DEPUTY EDITOR: Shweta Punj SENIOR EDITORS: Kaushik Deka, Sasi Nair, Mumbai: Suhani Singh; Jaipur: Rohit Parihar SENIOR ASSOCIATE EDITORS: Ashish Mukherjee Mumbai: Kiran Dinkar Tare; patna: Amitabh Srivastava ASSOCIATE EDITORS: Shougat Dasgupta, Kolkata: Romita Sengupta; Bhopal: Rahul Noronha; Thiruvananthapuram: Jeemon Jacob ASSISTANT EDITOR: Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri pune: Aditi S. Pai PHOTO DEPARTMENT: Vikram Sharma (Deputy Photo Editor), Yasir Iqbal (Deputy Chief Photographer), Rajwant Singh Rawat (Principal Photographer), Chandra Deep Kumar (Senior Photographer); Mumbai: Mandar Suresh Deodhar (Chief Photographer), Danesh Adil Jassawala (Photographer); Kolkata: Subir Halder (Principal Photographer); Chennai: N.G. Jaison (Senior Photographer) PHOTO RESEARCHERS: Prabhakar Tiwari (Chief Photo Researcher), Saloni Vaid (Principal Photo Researcher), Shubhrojit Brahma (Senior Photo Researcher) CHIEF OF GRAPHICS: Tanmoy Chakraborty ART DEPARTMENT: Sanjay Piplani (Senior Art Director); Angshuman De (Art Director); Devajit Bora (Deputy Art Director); COVER STORY Vikas Verma (Associate Art Director); VISION Bhoomesh Dutt Sharma (Senior Designer) 2020 Siddhant Jumde (Senior Illustrator) PRODUCTION DEPARTMENT: Harish Agarwal (Chief of Production), Naveen Gupta (Chief Coordinator)

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SIDDHANT the issues that by will shape the

Volume XLV Number 2; For the week future of India January 7-13, 2020, published on every Friday

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WILL OF THE PEOPLE Anti-CAA protests at Lucknow’s Parivartan Chowk on Dec. 19 MANEESHAGNIHOTRI

CAA PROTESTS BATTLEGROUND U.P. By Kaushik Deka

he road to Delhi, they say, runs Indian citizens over the contentious officials later conceded that 21 died, at through Lucknow—the capital Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019. least 14 of them succumbing tobullet of Uttar Pradesh. That well- The great public outrage against injuries. Unofficial accounts claim the T worn reference to the north the CAA, not just in UP but across the death toll is far higher. Indian state’s clout in national politics country, is possibly the biggest political Opposition leaders and civil liber- is hardly an exaggeration: with 80 Lok challenge Prime Minister Narendra ties and human rights activistshave Sabha seats, more than any other state, Modi’s BJP government has faced alleged that the state police picked on UP plays a pivotal role in determining since it came to power for the first Muslims in its crackdown onprotest- who forms the government at the Cen- time in 2014. Protests turned violent ers. According to police sources,1,113 tre. Hardly surprising, then, that the at several places in UP—a state with people were arrested, with 5,558 state should have emerged as the main 20 per cent Muslims—and the police people taken into preventive custody. battleground—not to mention the most crackdown was ruthless. The state government has set up SITs violent one—in the confrontation be- The state administration was (special investigation teams) to ensure tween the Union government and irate initially in denial, but government ‘proper investigation’ of all 327 FIRs

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 3 CAA PROTESTS: PULLQUOTES POLITICS O PROTEST “IN MY OPINION, #IndiaSupportsCAA CAA IS TOO LITTLE On December 30, Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI COMPASSION launched a hashtag on Twitter conflating the whole country COMING TOO LATE...” with his government and those Before an audience of followers, who support the CAA. If India SADHGURU JAGGI VASUDEV made a supports the CAA, are those long defence of the CAA and NRC, and protesting tens of thousands out mocked protesters, nearly 30 of whom on the streets not Indian? have died. The PM shared the video HANDRADEEP KUMAR on Twitter. Who needs government spokespeople when a spiritual leader can do the job with such facility? “This bhagwa (saffron) is not yours... It is a symbol of the Hindu religion... In that religion “Everyone has right of access there is no place for anger, to medical care... The visuals violence and revenge” of a policeman violently open- ing an ICU door... is a clear Having capsized the country’s news agenda indication of the ‘new truth’ by accusing the UP police of manhandling and the ‘new standards’” her, PRIYANKA GANDHI VADRA reminded reporters that the more serious issue was The Indian Medical Association protested the Yogi Adityanath government’s extreme on behalf of its members after police in aggression towards protesters. Without irony, Mangalore were filmed rampaging through UP deputy CM Dinesh Sharma warned her not a hospital. There were reports from other to start “a clash of religions for your politics” parts of the country of police not letting doctors treat injured protesters MANEESH AGNIHOTRI

No one will be stripped of their “Badla...” citizenship... I challenge

KUMAR Uttar Pradesh chief minister YOGI Rahul ‘baba’ toshow ADITYANATH used the word to even one clausein the describe the action his government

Act that has provisionto DRADEEP would take against protesters for take away citizenship destruction to public property. CHA Notices were duly sent out and shops Home minister AMIT SHAH, speak- “At this time, nothing shuttered. Now, will every protester ing in Himachal Pradesh, reiterated else comes to my mind indiscriminately beaten or detained the government defence of the but ‘jinhein naaz hai Hind by state police receive monetary CAA. But protesters are making a par, wo kahaan hain?’ compensation, or even an apology? different point. Why should some persecuted religious minorities be Where are those people? f d hers, and The country needs them” us per- Quoting Sahir Ludhianvi at a avoured literature festival in Bathinda, orms of YOGENDRA YADAV said the CAA cution? was an attack on Indian democracy. The refrain of ‘tukde-tukde gang’ and ‘anti-national’ implies that only government supporters feel pride CHANDRADEEP KUMAR CHANDRADEEP in India. Perhaps the protesters too are asserting their pride in their country, in its founding ideals?

CHANDRADEEP KUMAR UPFRONT

registered in connection with the protesters) should ask themselves, was it violence reported in 15 districts in the right? Whatever was torched, was it not state. The UP police are also reportedly 28 for their child’s use? What [about] those investigating the suspected role of radi- PEOPLE KILLED people and policemen who got injured?” cal Islamist organisation Popular Front in anti-CAA protests—21 in Police sources claim 288 policemen were Uttar Pradesh alone, 5 in of India (PFI). Among those arrested, Assam and 2 in Karnataka also injured in the clashes, 61 of them 21 were found to have links with the sustaining firearm injuries. PFI, the state police have claimed. Sensing an opportunity in the public In a statement that rang loud and discontent with the BJP over the CAA, clear, and well beyond his state’s bound- 1,113 opposition parties have also swung into aries, UP chief minister Yogi Aditya- action in the state. Samajwadi Party PEOPLE ARRESTED nath vowed to exact ‘badla’ (revenge) in UP in connection with (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav charged on violent protesters by making them, protests; 5,558 taken into the BJP with “erecting walls within so- literally, pay for vandalising public preventive custody. Almost ciety, creating hatred and maintaining property. The state home department 400 arrested in Assam fear” and accused Adityanath of trying has identified 498 people who were to save his chair by targeting Muslims allegedly involved in vandalism, and on the pretext of going after vandals Recovery notices served nearly a hundred—including founder in the CAA protests. On a four-day of Rehai Manch Mohammad Shoaib, on 130 of 500 ‘rioters’ state tour, Priyanka Gandhi, Congress former IPS officer S.R. Darapuri, actor identified by UP police; general secretary in-charge of eastern Sadaf Jafar and social activist Deepak they’ve been asked to UP, met families of the victims of the Kabeer—have been served notices, ask- cough up Rs 50 lakh violence—and challengingly reminded ing them to cough up damages. the “badla-seeking” chief minister that Most of the people on whom notices the colour saffron (in the Indian flag were served are currently in jail. Film- and also the robe the chief minister maker Mira Nair said in a press state- always dons) stood for Hinduism—“a ment that Jafar—cast in A Suitable Boy, Rs 6.27 religion that does not advocate violence LAKH her upcoming TV miniseries based on collected by Muslims in or ‘revenge’”. the 1993 Vikram Seth novel of the same Bulandshahr and handed over to While the protests and violence in name—was bleeding from blows inflict- the district administration to pay UP seemed to dominate media head- ed on her by male policemen. Almost for damage to public property in lines, the women of Shaheen Bagh—a everyone served notice has accused the anti-CAA demonstrations locality not far from the original seat of Adityanath government of unfairly the CAA protests at Jamia Millia Islamia targeting them, and of muzzling civil university in south Delhi—have been on society. Those charges have apparently a peaceful, continuous sit-in against the fallen on deaf ears, with the chief min- 21 CAA for more than two weeks. Braving ister’s office tweeting on December 27: DISTRICTS IN UP the bone-chilling cold wave sweeping ‘Every rioter is shocked. Every trouble- suffered Internet shutdowns Delhi, nearly 200 of them, from all during the protests maker is astonished… every violent walks of life, have camped round the protester will cry now because there is a clock, demanding a rollback of the CAA. Yogi government in UP.’ Politicians have been kept at an arm’s The official belligerence in dealing length, and the sit-in has been supported with protesters was in full view when 200 and sustained by the community—with Meerut SP (superintendent of police) WOMEN locals and sympathisers supplying food, Akhilesh Narayan Singh was caught on in Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh blankets, mattresses, heaters and what- neighbourhood have been on camera telling a group of protesters to a continuous sit-in protest for ever else they need. “go to Pakistan”. Embarrassingly for the two weeks; locals have rallied to Even as he sought to distance his BJP, the video went viral, though the SP provide food, drink and bedding government from the impending NRC himself tried to brazen it out saying the exercise, saying it hadn’t even been dis- protesters were raising pro-Pakistan slo- cussed yet, Prime Minister Modi came gans. He was backed by UP deputy chief out in favour of the CAA, tweeting with minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. Earlier, 30 the hashtag #IndiaSupportsCAA, in on December 25, Prime Minister Modi, surreal denial of the protests that have DOCTORS while speaking in Lucknow, came down in Delhi paid for by crowdfunding swept the country. n heavily on violent protesters: “...They (the to give medical aid to protesters —with Ashish Misra

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 5 PANKAJ NANGIA/MAIL TODAY UPFRONT

CDS A RADICAL MILITARY BUREAUCRAT By Sandeep Unnithan THE BIG CHIEF Gen. Rawat receives a Guard of Honour in South Block on Dec. 31, 2019

he December 30 appointment department within the defence ministry continues to grow. The forces have of army chief General Bipin to integrate the military with the civil- pending procurement wishlists worth Rawat as India’s first Chief of ian bureaucracy. Despite not command- hundreds of billions of dollars, which T Defence Staff (CDS) marks a ing troops, by virtue of his formidable are unlikely to materialise given the radical departure from the way India’s responsibilities, he will become the most unofficial cap on defence budget hikes. defence ministry has functioned ever significant uniformed defence official in The logic for this cap is that the defence since the British left the country. The independent India. No military official budget (including pensions) already ac- civilian bureaucracy which ran the in independent India has ever headed a counts for over 2.2 per cent of the GDP ministry kept the three wings of the government department. and, at 15 per cent of central government armed forces outside the decision-mak- As army chief, Gen. Rawat dis- spending, it’s the second-highest head ing loop and the planning, training and played a flair for change by beginning a after debt servicing. Finance minister procurement for each was conducted in rightsizing of the world’s second-largest Nirmala Sitharaman’s February 1 bud- independent silos. Mili- force to make it more get will likely have a very modest hike tary relations with the combat-worthy and free for defence. It will be Gen. Rawat’s remit civil bureaucracy, which IN GEN. RAWAT, up resources for new to ensure that India gets more bang for administers the defence THE ARMED threats. Among the most its defence buck. He will have to do this ministry, are tense and critical was the creation by getting the armed forces to prioritise occasionally hostile. In FORCES NOW of Integrated Battle their budgetary spending. Gen. Rawat, the armed HAVE AN Groups (IBGs) that could He will also integrate the armed forces now have a serv- OFFICER WITH inflict swift punitive forces and get them to plan to fight to- ing officer heading a cross-border strikes. This gether as an effective, cohesive whole, or government department THE POWER TO came even as he exhorted what the military calls ‘jointmanship’. with the power to swiftly SWIFTLY MOVE his military command- He will also flag responses to newer move proposals. ers to prepare for wars threats of hybrid warfare—when the The appointment, PROPOSALS that would be fought at enemy seamlessly blends conventional, delayed till just hours short notice and under irregular and political warfare, cyber before he was to retire as army chief on a nuclear overhang. It was, thus, an warfare and fake news on social media. December 31, had been in the works for important aspect of the government’s There is currently no arm of the military at least four months. Prime Minister tactic to shore up the military as looking at these new, complex threats. Narendra Modi announced the CDS a coercive element against Pakistan. The idea for a single-point military decision on August 15 this year. When Gen. Rawat has three tasks to ac- advisor was born after the fiasco of the he assumes office on January 1 , 2020, complish before the end of his three- Kargil War of 1999, where the three the general will have a formidable year tenure by March 30, 2023, when services, especially the army and the air ambit of power and with it even greater he turns 65. He has to get the DMA up force, were not in sync when it came to responsibilities. He will also be perma- and running and begin the process of tackling the Pakistani incursions. Gen. nent chairman, Chiefs of Staff Commit- integrating the armed forces with the Rawat will have to build confidence tee (CoSC), of which all three service defence ministry and bring it into the among the three and steer them towards chiefs are members. He will also head a decision-making chain. desired ends—streamlining India’s 17 significant new Department of Military The collusive threat from nuclear- single-service commands into just three Affairs (DMA), being set up as a fifth armed adversaries Pakistan and China integrated theatre commands. n

16 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 GLASSHOUSE Visiting Rites DEPUTY hen the Raghubar Das-led WBJP government was in NO. 1 power in Jharkhand, it was hard CP leader Ajit for members of Lalu Prasad Pawar has earned Yadav’s family to visit him in Nthe distinction of state capital Ranchi. The RJD being the only politician patriarch is serving a prison to become deputy to sentence for the fodder scam three chief ministers in the city’s Rajendra Institute of Medical Sciences (RIMS). from three different With the party’s alliance parties in Maharashtra. partner JMM in power now, He was Number 2 to the it was the newly-elected chief Congress’s Prithviraj minister Hemant Soren himself Chavan twice between who paid Yadav a visit. The 2010 and 2014. Then, meeting, he said, was to seek his in a midnight coup on ‘guidance and blessings’. November 23, he was deputy to the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis. That term lasted only 75 hours. AMRUTA Finally, on December 30, VERSUS UDDHAV he accepted second place under the Shiv Sena’s mruta Fadnavis has Uddhav Thackeray. He’s A been the most vociferous unlikely to get the powerful of opposition voices in home department--uncle Maharashtra in recent times. In a series of tweets, the banker Sharad Pawar reportedly targeted Chief Minister Uddhav

offered him a choice JUMDE SIDDHANT Thackeray for drifting away between Deputy CM and from the BJP. First, she said one the home portfolio. And cannot be a ‘Thackeray’ just by he chose position over adding the title to their name. power. by Illustration Then she tweeted: “Having a bad leader was not Maharashtra’s fault, but staying with one is. Wake up Maharashtra.” Asked about her activism, husband POWER Devendra Fadnavis said: “She is an independent person who has GAMES paid a price for her tweets in [the] past.” P’s two deputy chief ministers, Keshav UPrasad Maurya and Dinesh Sharma, share a peculiar relationship. Sharma is Maurya’s senior in the party but junior in government because he took the oath after him. Till recently, the Lucknow traffic police used the DCM-1 wireless call sign for Maurya and DCM-2 for Sharma during their movements. Three months ago, Sharma’s office objected to being labelled DCM-2. The resourceful policemen found a way around the protocol mess. Sharma is now DCM-Gold and Maurya, DCM-Platinum. Life goes on in Lucknow.

Sandeep Unnithan with Kiran D. Tare, Ashish Misra and Amitabh Srivastava DEODHAR MANDAR WEST BENGAL: CHHATTISGARH: VARSITY PUPPETS INDIRECT VICTORY PG 11 STATES PG 12

MENDING FENCES Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray at the swearing-in of his deputy Ajit Pawar

MAHARASHTRA THACKERAY’S TIGHTROPE WALK From lambasting Hindutva politics to giving plum portfolios to allies NCP and Congress, Uddhav Thackeray is doing everythinghe can to keep his government steady By Kiran D. Tare n December 17, Maharashtra chief minister new amount needs to be under Rs 2 lakh to be eligible. Uddhav Thackeray strongly criticised the An earlier scheme, implemented by the previous police action at Delhi’s Jamia Millia Islamia BJP-Sena government, provisioned for a waiver of University during a protest against the Citi- up to Rs 1.5 lakh irrespective of the outstanding loan zenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), equating amount. Maharashtra BJP president Chandrakant Oit to the Jallianwala Bagh massacre during British rule Patil says that the new scheme won’t benefit too a century ago. Thackeray was speaking during the state many farmers as loans between 2001 and 2016 had legislature session in Nagpur. Later, he even said that already been waived. Farmer leader Vijay Jawandhia his party, the Shiv Sena, had made a grave mistake in said that Thackeray had promised a blanket loan the past by mixing Hindutva with politics. waiver only to do a U-turn. While the remark is a major departure from the Thackeray could not give details of the estimated Sena’s hardcore Hindutva politics, political analysts number of beneficiaries of his scheme. “We have kept see it as Thackeray’s attempt to signal that the Sena our word on making farmers debt-free,” he merely said. and its coalition partners, the Nationalist Congress Finance minister Jayant Patil, however, claims the new Party (NCP) and the Congress, have put their ideologi- scheme will be bigger than the Rs 34,000 crore waiver cal differences aside and found a common wavelength implemented by the Fadnavis government. for their ‘Maha Vikas Aghadi’ government in the state. Thackeray has also accepted the Congress-NCP’s It only helped that NCP president Sharad Pawar wel- demand to remove political representatives from comed the chief minister’s comments, saying that the cooperative bodies, such as sugar mills and Agricul- state government appeared to be “on the right track”. ture Produce Marketing Committees (APMC), mostly More proof of deft coalition manoeuvring by Thac- controlled by the Congress and the NCP. The chief keray was evident at his first cabinet expansion on minister also conceded to the demand to discard the December 30. Not only did the NCP bag most of the prominent portfolios, such as home, finance, public works, A BJP LEADER SAYS WHILE ALLIES excise, housing and labour, Thackeray even agreed to the ally’s demand to in- MAY NOT WITHDRAW SUPPORT, THE duct Sharad Pawar’s powerful nephew Ajit Pawar as his deputy. It was Ajit’s SHIV SENA RISKS LOSING ITS CORE attempt to wean away NCP MLAs SUPPORT BASE IN THE FUTURE and prop up a Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP government that had precipitat- ed the political crisis in Maharashtra in November, until Sharad Pawar stepped in to nip the multiple ward representatives system in municipal rebellion in his party in the bud and ensure the forma- corporations and restored the one ward, one represen- tion of the Sena-NCP-Congress government. tative system. The Shiv Sena got only two important portfo- Thackeray says the three allies have accepted each lios—industry and urban development, which gives it other. “I am delighted to see workers of all three par- authority to control the civic bodies in urban areas— ties comfortably mingling with each other,” he told whereas plum departments like revenue, power and india today at an informal interaction. “That shows school education went to the Congress. Underpinning our government will last its full term.” his secular credentials, Thackeray is the first state Fadnavis, who is leader of the opposition in the chief minister to induct four Muslims into the cabi- state assembly, however, disagrees. He says the “auto- net—Hasan Mushrif, Nawab Malik, Aslam Shaikh rickshaw government will collapse under its own and Abdul Sattar. weight within a year” and accuses the government of In his month-long stint at the helm so far, Thac- cheating farmers. “Those affected by unseasonal rains keray has made it a point not to antagonise his allies. in October have been completely left out [of the loan Toeing their line—without adequate homework—he waiver],” says Fadnavis. announced a loan waiver for farmers on December 21. Another BJP leader, however, predicts that the A week later, though, it became clear that Thackeray’s government will complete its five years. Power has scheme came with a rider: only farmers with a collec- given the Congress and NCP a new lease of life in tive debt of up to Rs 2 lakh would be eligible. Also, the Maharashtra and they would be desperate for the outstanding loan and interest should be for the period government to continue, he feels. “Uddhavji might be July 1, 2015 to September 30, 2019. In case the loan able to save the government, but not his core voters amount is restructured before March 31, 2020, the in the future.” n

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 9 STATES

SHOW OF UNITY Opposition leaders at Hemant Soren’s oath-taking ceremony in Ranchi

support for the assembly contest. In the first cabinet meeting held hours after Soren took oath as chief minister on December 29, the govern- ment decided to withdraw criminal cases lodged against thousands of people who had agitated against the previous BJP government’s proposed amendments to tenancy laws. Most of the cases were filed in 2017. Although

SOMNATH SEN SOMNATH the Das government had claimed that the proposed amendments to the Chota JHARKHAND Nagpur Tenancy Act and the Santhal Parganas Tenancy Act were meant to plug loopholes in age-old laws, they were seen as a ploy to dilute tribal con- MATURE SORENADOPTS trol over land. Tribal ire proved to be one of the major reasons for the BJP’s defeat in the election. The Soren government has also de- ‘SOFT TOUCH’POLICY cided to drop sedition charges slapped Withdraws case against former CM Raghubar Das; drops tenancy on several tribal activists of the Path- algadi movement, which had rocked law protest cases against thousands in a bid to reassure tribals the state’s Khunti district, adjoining By Amitabh Srivastava Ranchi, and its bordering areas and turned violent in 2017-2018. The two decisions will likely day after election results ghubar Das of the BJP. Soren had filed reassure the state’s tribal commu- handed the Jharkhand a complaint on December 19 over an nity—which makes up 26.3 per cent of Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led objectionable comment made by Das. the electorate and is the JMM’s core A opposition alliance a deci- Soren appears to have opted for a base—as well as send a signal that the sive victory—47 MLAs in the 81-mem- more conciliatory approach in his new Soren government does not intend to ber Jharkhand assembly—Hemant innings, unlike his first stint as state be confrontational or vindictive. The Soren drove to the residence of Babulal chief minister from July 2013 to De- chief minister, however, made it clear Marandi, chief of the Jharkhand Vikas cember 2014, when many considered to india today that those facing cor- Morcha (JVM). him headstrong. Despite his govern- ruption charges will not be let off the Unwilling to back Soren as the chief ment’s wafer-thin majority, he had hook (see interview). ministerial candidate, Marandi had fired three ministers from his cabinet. The Jharkhand result has come as a broken away from the JMM-led alliance For the Lok Sabha election, he morale-booster for the opposition after in November and contested the assem- settled for fewer seats for the JMM and the BJP-AJSU Party tie-up swept the bly poll on his own. The results proved let the Congress lead the alliance. In state in the Lok Sabha poll, winning how unwise the decision was. Though return, he was assured of the party’s 12 of the 14 seats. Soren played a key its three-seat haul had left the JVM in a role in keeping the opposition alliance position of no leverage, Soren neverthe- intact and seized the opportunity when less made it a point to meet Marandi SOREN’S OATH the BJP and AJSU Party parted ways and seek ‘advice’. The gesture floored before the assembly election. At Soren’s Marandi, who declared ‘unconditional CEREMONY TURNED swearing-in, the presence of a galaxy of support’ to the new government. INTO A NATIONAL opposition leaders, who joined hands Next, Soren withdrew a case under in a show of strength, suggests that the the SC and ST (Prevention of Atroci- SHOW OF STRENGTH Jharkhand victory may have provided ties) Act that he had lodged against BY THE OPPOSITION the opposition more than a reason to former chief minister and rival Ra- stay united at the national level. n

10 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 INTERVIEW: HEMANT SOREN WEST BENGAL ‘Don’t want people to stand in the queue Varsity Puppets While cornering the governor-chancellor, again, for NRC’ the TMC regime has made V-Cs ciphers too By Romita Datta Jharkhand chief minister HEMANT SOREN spoke to A MITABH SRIVASTAVA on his government’s priori- ties, the new citizenship law and NRC. Excerpts:

Despite the and take everyone along. Q acrimonious Let our government take election cam- formal shape, and you will paign, you have started see the difference. your chief ministerial stint by dropping your Q. What is your posi- FIR against former CM tion on the Citizenship Raghubar Das. Are you (Amendment) Act (CAA) both friends again? and National Register of The opposition plays a big Citizens (NRC)? ANI role in giving direction to I have not seen any official POINTING FINGERS the state. I believe in con- document so far. But will Governor Dhankar after students structive governance. I will the country be governed blocked his convoy in Jadavpur, Dec. 24 work with them (opposi- better through divisive tion parties) both inside politics or by those who long with the move to strip the governor of the assembly and outside. believe in peace and his powers as chancellor of universities, the brotherhood? People have A Mamata Banerjee government has disem- Q. The move, however, got killed while protest- powered the vice-chancellors as well. As per the new has been interpreted in ing against the CAA and rules, framed on December 12, as a corollary to the some quarters as a sig- NRC. Do we need to get West Bengal University and College (Administra- nal that you may drop people killed in the name of tion and Regulation) Act, 2017, V-Cs have to kowtow corruption cases. enforcing a new law? to the higher education department on all matters The law will take its own of any consequence and some of none at all—even course [in corruption Q. Will you accept a law academic tours or MoUs with other institutes. cases]. I have no vendetta that requires the people The 2017 act had effectively gagged teachers, against anyone, but that of Jharkhand to prove preventing them from airing grievances against does not mean the guilty their citizenship? the state; even speaking will be let off the hook. They (the Modi govern- Getting ‘yes- to the media was prohib- I am not going to spare ment) made people stand men’ as V-Cs ited. Governor Jagdeep anyone who has indulged in endless queues during Dhankar says “education in corruption. There will demonetisation. I don’t began soon is being held in captivity”. be impartial investigations want people to stand in after the Incidentally, the process and things will be taken to the queue again, for NRC. TMC came to of getting “yesmen” as their logical conclusion. The country has over 180 power in ’11 V-Cs began soon after the million landless labourers. Trinamool Congress came Q. What are your gov- Should they hunt for em- to power in 2011. The higher education department ernment’s priorities? ployment or documents? minimised the role of varsity bodies in selections, We will try to provide a Most of the poor and vesting supreme power in a three-member panel. people-friendly and acces- marginalised people have Initially, the committee consisted of a nominee sible government, one that no documents. This is a each from the UGC and the university decision- truly cares for its people. clear case of misplaced making body, besides the chancellor. Problems We have to move forward priorities. n arose first when the chancellor (the governor, by

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 11 STATES

default) preferred the UGC nominee, ties into extended offices of the govern- tion department HQ) or Raj Bhawan. overriding the preference of the state ment. The new guidelines have been This is a classic case of [jumping out of for Jadavpur University in 2012. Soon, introduced as rules to bypass a debate the] frying pan [into] fire,” says Partha the government did away with the in the assembly. This is just a deceitful Pratim Biswas, president of the Jadav- UGC nominee, and instead had its way to rob the universities of their auto- pur University Teachers Union. own rep resentative. By stalling election nomy,” says Sujan Chakraborty, leader The West Bengal College and Uni- for the posts of elected representatives of the Left parties in the assembly. versity Teachers Association is now from among staff and students, the The V-C’s powers are so curtailed he planning protests and rallies to can- ‘nominated’ ex-officio members soon cannot even call meetings of executive vass public opinion. Education minis- outnumbered the elected posts and bodies. “These laws are arbitrary. We ter Partha Chatterjee is unm oved. “The became the decisive voice. do not want our universities to be run rules have clearly defined responsibili- “The rules have turned the universi- either by Bikash Bhawan (state educa- ties and jurisdiction,” he says. n

RAIPUR CM Baghel with Rahul Gandhi at a tribal festival in Raipur, Dec. 27 CHHATTISGARH Indirect Victory The state urban bodies’ election favours Baghel’s Congress government

By Rahul Noronha ANI

he Bhupesh Baghel of municipalities and nagar The decision was criti- and Durg; and was the government’s gam- panchayats) directly. ci sed by the BJP, which felt single-largest party in the bit—to hold indirect The state gov ernment that indirect elections would Raipur, Dhamtari and Ra- T elections to urban lo- had amended the Chhattis- promote horse trading and jnandgaon corporations. In cal bodies (ULBs)—has paid garh Municipal Corporation corporators being swayed Korba, though, the BJP won off. The Congress, which had Act, 1956 and the Chhat- by the ruling party. The more wards, but fell short of won just four of the 10 mu- tisgarh Municipalities Act, decision was also opposed by a majority on its own. nicipal corporations in 2014, 1961 in October 2019, the the bureaucracy. “In indirect The Congress is not is set to control nine now, result of which was that elections, the mayor or chair- acknowledging the role of perhaps even bagging the heads of ULBs were now to person is at the mercy of cor- indirect elections in its vic- tenth if behind-the-scenes be elected by corporators. porators, who could threaten tory. “It is a result of the work negotiations work out. Elections were held to choose them with withdrawal of done by the Baghel govern- Ten municipal corpora- corporators only. supp ort. Also, it slows down ment...it’s also a rejection of tions, 38 municipalities and the process of decision- the politics of the BJP,” says 103 nagar panchayats went making,” says a senior civil Shailesh N. Trivedi, state to the polls on December 21. servant in Chhattisgarh. Congress spokesperson. The last three polls to ULBs In the 10 municipal BJP state chief Vikram were held through the direct 2,831 corp o ra tions that went to Usendi, however, said a clear format, with the electorate Wards spread the polls, the Congress won majority for the Congress voting for corporators and across 151 civic an absolute majority in in only three corporations the head of the urban body bodies to which Ambikapur, Chirmiri and reflects the unpopularity of (mayors in municipal cor- elections were held Jagdalpur; won half the the Baghel government in its porations and chairpersons wards in Bilaspur, Raigarh first year itself. n

12 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020

INTERVIEW ASHOK GEHLOT, CHIEF MINISTER OF RAJASTHAN “Shah has created fear about India becoming a ‘Hindu Rashtra’”

ajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot made news recently with his vocal opposition to the BJP leadership. On December 22, Rhe led a 300,000-strong march in Jaipur to protest the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. On December 11, Gehlot took on Union home minister Amit Shah, who, during a discussion on the CAA in the Rajya Sabha, had implied that Gehlot had himself sought citizenship especially for Hindus and Sikhs who had migrated into Rajasthan from Pakistan. Accusing Shah of ‘misleading the country’, Gehlot said there were refugees from only those two faiths in that instance— and had there been others, he’d have recom- mended citizenship for them too. On December 16, he completed 11 years as chief minister of Rajasthan (1998-2003, 2008-2013 and 2018- ). Gehlot has contin- ued his focus on welfare and retained his firm grip on the administration. In early December, he suspended nine junior officers and demanded explanations from two senior IAS officers for not following up on his orders on welfare schemes, and backed up these steps with an order on December 10 assuring pro- tection to whistleblowers against reprisals from the offices they red-flagged. Continuing his push for welfare, on December 17, his government launched ‘Nirogi Rajasthan’, a campaign to raise awareness about medi- cal issues like diabetes and obesity, to reduce the burden on hospitals. And as a national leader, he remains crucial to the Congress high command, improving the party perfor- mance in bypolls and local body elections in Rajasthan and, according to insiders, advis- ing it on strategy for West Bengal. Excerpts from an interview with Rohit Parihar: Photograph by BANDEEP SINGH

14 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 You recently began targeting the BJP’s central leadership. Q This is something you had avoided in the past. Why? Were Amit Shah and Narendra Modi around at the time you are talking about? The kind of atmosphere of fear, extortion, corruption and communal division they have ushered into the country is unparalleled. Everyone must stand up and condemn it, not just me.

Q. Why did you lead a peace march in Jaipur against the CAA and the NRC? The processes of the CAA and the NRC are impractical. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have taken contrary stands on it, and without taking any stakeholders into their confidence. In Assam, the NRC excluded 1.6 million Hindus—that is why protests against it are not confined to Muslims alone. Shah has also created a fear among Indians about India being made into a ‘Hindu Rashtra’—but we all know that a Tamil Hindu has different aspirations than one from Rajasthan. People are angry. Other chief ministers should have led similar marches to ensure peace.

Q. Why did you raise the issue of electo­ ral bonds and ask Supreme Court judg­ es to take suo motu notice of the issue? Electoral bonds are core to political corruption. I have advocated for state funding of elections as a solution.

Q. How are you tackling corruption in your own state? I have held meetings with the anti- corruption bureau and have ordered officers not to spare the guilty, while protecting whistleblowers. I have also ordered a consistent campaign against the organised mafia, including those related to drugs, illegal mining and food adulteration. I have given orders that officials conniving with such crim- inals are to be sternly dealt with.

Q. Rajasthan needs to focus on tour­ ism, but you are against liquor... does that not cause a problem? Yes, I am against liquor, but prohibi- tion did not work in Rajasthan or in Haryana and Gujarat. It will only be INTERVIEW ASHOK GEHLOT, CHIEF MINISTER OF RAJASTHAN

Q. Have farm loan waivers added to the state’s financial woes? Not much. I have waived the loans we could and we are asking national banks to go in for one-time settlements with farmers the way they do with industrial- ists. Our major shortage of funds comes from the Centre, which has withheld Rs 11,000 crore from GST compensation. The previous state government also left liabilities of Rs 12,000 crore.

Q. How do you feel about your arch- rival, Vasundhara Raje? I never have been vindictive. I have

PURUSHOTTAM DIWAKAR PURUSHOTTAM only ever opposed brazen wrongdoing, STREET FIGHTER Ashok Gehlot at the peace march in Jaipur on December 22 not genuine administrative errors. effective if it is enforced pan-India. In problems, by consulting with senior Q. Is it your loyalty to the Nehru- either case, such steps do not affect doctors to initiate treatment right Gandhi family that led them to choose tourism and we have plans underway away. For example, we can reduce the you as chief minister? to attract even more tourists. incidents of diabetes and obesity to People wanted me to be chief minis- a great extent if we can catch these ter again. This has been proved by our Q. What have your achievements been problems in the early stage. Similarly, improved performance in the bypolls in the past year? our effort is to make pregnant women and local body elections. Our manifesto is our agenda, and we healthier and improve awareness have achieved one-fourth of it so far. about what they can do to have healthy Q. Do you personally have any I am trying to speed up work on the babies. This will help the state improve differences with Sachin Pilot? Barmer refinery and get money for its social indices. I had suggested that he be made a min- the second phase of our metro. We ister in the UPA-II government—so have also strengthened the progressive Q. What about other welfare issues? how can he now complain that I am works I had earlier launched, such as We have extended benefits to large sec- against him? But the youth of today free medicines and laboratory tests. tions of society, including the unem- lack patience. My contemporaries, like ployed, senior citizens and women. We Ghulam Nabi [Azad] and Ahmed Q. The deaths of 90 infants within a have also filled thousands of vacancies. Patel, reached where they are now after month at a state hospital in Kota has four decades of work. Nobody should become a scandal... Q. What other social issues do you find expect to achieve that kind of success in Rajasthan has a poor mortality rate for yourself concerned about? four years. Young leaders want to jump newborns. That is why in that hospital, Untouchability, unfortunately, still immediately to top positions, but that despite consistent improvement in sur- remains a major problem, as well as is not in their interest, nor is it possible. vival numbers, we still have a thousand our population numbers. The popula- deaths every year, with many other tion explosion negates every develop- Q. You surprised everyone recently hospitals having a similar rate. I have ment initiative we implement. by revealing that your son Vaibhav worked to bring out a policy for Nirogi no longer stays with you. (disease-free) Rajasthan. It will be the I was not keen on him getting into the first such effort by any government to “I have worked to bring Rajasthan Cricket Association. But help make citizens healthy to reduce once he has, I expect him to do well their dependence on hospitals. out a policy for ‘Nirogi and to keep in mind my position. I Rajasthan’—the first am proud of my close relatives who Q. Is this a preventive measure? such effort by any have cooperated with this necessity by Yes. It involves grassroots officials, themselves offering not to stay with doctors, nursing staff and angan- government to me—that is one reason I have never wadi workers. They will address improve citizen health’’ faced any allegations of nepotism. But issues that could lead to serious health Vaibhav understands the restrictions. n

16 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 COVER STORY VISION 2020 THINKING AHEAD

Of course it’s just another random moment in our collective history, but the end of a year at the end of a decade does give us pause and the opportunity to reflect on the future. So we asked a dozen experts whose job it is to think deeply about the past, present and future of the country to do just that. We asked about the economy, about climate change and the promises and threats of technology for mass transport, urban planning, defence, healthcare and agriculture. We asked about India’s place in the world and the place of politics, science and religion in India.

They came back with plenty of new questions—and some consensus on the important ones. By the end of the coming decade, India will lead the world in one metric at least— population. There will be a lot more Indians and more than ever looking to live and work outside agriculture. In other words, more questions. Is this a challenge, an opportunity or an impending disaster? Don’t worry, you’ll find some cautious optimism in these pages too. India is also full of answers.

Illustration by NILANJAN DAS COVER STORY ECONOMY VISION 2020 ACCEPTANCE IS THE FIRST STEP TO RECOVERY Globalisation determined India’s fate in the early 2000s, BY JAHANGIR AZIZ but it is time to find new sources of growth

begun to tighten bank lending since 2014. More inexplicable was the argument that falling corporate investment was the main conduit through which these shocks were hitting the economy. It is true that corporate investment is no longer running at the heady 17 per cent of GDP of the pre-global financial crisis (GFC) days, but at a much more sombre 11-12 per cent of GDP. However, this outsized decline had already taken place by 2010 and since then corporate investment has flatlined at current levels. Instead, what has fallen relentlessly in these past few years is private housing and small and medium (SME) in- vestment: from 15 per cent of GDP to less than 10 per cent in the past seven years. This is a telltale sign that it is not weak corporate profits that is driving down overall investment but falling income and demand. ALMOST TWOYEARS TO THE DAY, in a similar year-ahead for What has happened since then? Things have this magazine, we had written that the problem with the dominant just turned worse. Growth has fallen to its lowest narrative explaining India’s economic woes then was that it had rate in the past six years despite substantial help little to do with reality and therefore policies based on such a nar- from easy monetary and fiscal policies while the bad rative were unlikely to work. In the last months of 2017 when the debt problem in the bank has spread into nonbanks, global economy was clocking its strongest growth rate since 2010, notwithstanding capital and liquidity support from India was languishing. At that time, there was virtual consensus the government and the RBI and the creation of among analysts, the market and the government that the decline India’s first bankruptcy court. What is much more in growth was just because of bad timing. An unfortunate and problematic is that while two years ago the balance unintended confluence of demonetisation, the shift to a national sheets of corporates (especially those in infrastruc- GST, and rising bad debt in banks had temporarily disrupted do- ture and power) had been severely impaired, which mestic supply chains butthat it was only a matter time before these was mirrored in the worsening financial position of headwinds would fade andIndia would be back to its winning ways. banks who had lent them the funds, now the prob- However, what the narrative ignored was that while it was lem has spread to nonbank financial and housing undeniable that policy changes and bad debt had been disruptive companies. While the balance sheets of households and its full impact appreciatedonly now, they couldn’t be the drivers still appear intact, the rise in individual borrowing of the decline. India’s growthhad been sliding a quarter before the from 19 per cent of GDP in 2015 to over 27 per cent demonetisation and a year before the GST was introduced—and of GDP at present raises serious concerns about the although bad debt hit headlinesin 2016, overleverage had already ability of repay these loans—to both banks and non-

18 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 Illustration by RAJ VERMA

ECONOMY

banks—in the face of falling growth and income. Needless to add bad debt of banks and nonbanks is too high a burden that the government’s balance sheet has remained stretched for a on the economy. Instead, it might be time for the RBI long time in the absence of any meaningful consolidation of fiscal to take over the bad debt itself, however inelegant deficits at the Centre and among states. this solution might seem. Clearly, it has the space in its balance sheet to do so and it can minimise moral o where did India go wrong? It is in the diagnosis. hazard by demanding that banks institute the right Contrary to a widely-held misperception, India is, internal governance and risk management systems and has been for a long time, far more open to the in return for taking over the bad debt. The bank- global economy than believed. There is virtual con- ruptcy courts, meanwhile, will still be there for the sensus among analysts and policymakers that the RBI to recover the bad loans. SS dramatic rise in corporate investment drove much More generally, policymakers need to stop think- of India’s vaunted strong growth over 2003-08. The liberalisation ing about India as a perpetual supply-constrained of 1991-92 coupled with the corporate restructuring in the late 1990s economy with a structurally high inflation and a spurred corporate investment to rise from 5-6 per cent of GDP in nagging current account deficit. It is this entrenched the early 2000s to 17 per cent of GDP by 2008. But here’s the rub. belief that has been the basis of almost all policies and The rise in investment also produced a lot of things that someone reforms to focus on easing supply constraints. Instead, had to consume. Despite the explosion of shop- it is time to let domestic demand ping malls in India, it wasn’t residents who play a greater role in India’s growth bought the stuff that firms were producing as story. While this means that India generally believed. Instead, it was the foreigners. Inc. needs to shift from producing Exports in this period grew at an astonishing INDIA CAN NO LONGER what foreigners want to producing pace of 18 per cent per year. Private consumption, DEPEND ON GLOBAL what residents can afford, it also on the other hand, expanded at 6 per cent, less means that policymakers have to than the growth rate of the economy such that its TRADE. IT IS TIME reverse policies that have so far share in GDP fell from 63 per cent to 56 per cent. TO LET DOMESTIC forced households to keep increas- To put this in perspective, even after declining ing savings (for retirement income, over the past few years, export’s share in GDP in DEMAND PLAY A GREATER children’s education, healthcare India at 20 per cent is the same as that in Indo- and housing) through a web of nesia and twice that in Brazil. Indeed, the rise ROLE IN INDIA’S financial repression, regulatory and fall of exports explain almost all the twists GROWTH STORY distortions, and public spending and turns in India’s domestic investment. choices. It means redesigning In- Like other emerging market economies, dia’s infrastructure to look more changes in globalisation have largely deter- inward and less outward, increas- mined India’s fate since the early 2000s too. Global trade ex- ing public provisioning of healthcare and education, panded at breakneck speed with the entry of China into the WTO reforming insurance regulations to reduce out-of- in 2001 and the raid expansion of supply chains in the 2000s. But pocket expense, and eliminating financial repression since 2010, global trade has floundered and is unlikely to return to raise returns on retirement savings. to its pre-GFC growth rates not only because supply chains have In the absence of radical shifts in policies and in stopped expanding in the absence of any material technology the direction of reforms, it is hard to see how just tin- breakthrough in the past decade but there is also a growing politi- kering with macroeconomic policies can do much. cal backlash against globalisation in the developed market that has Monetary policy has the space but is ineffectual given led to increased trade barriers. the logjam in the financial sector. Fiscal policy could Consequently, India too, like other emerging market econo- be effective if used wisely but it has little space as pub- mies, needs to face up to the reality that it can no longer depend on lic sector borrowing is already close to 9 per cent of global trade to be the only growth driver. Instead, it needs to search GDP leaving little room for the private sector to grow. and find new sources of growth and that starts with recognising The global economy will likely stage a modest recovery and accepting reality. in 2020 and the G-3 central banks’ easy policies will Policymakers need to ask whether a cut in corporate tax, which keep financial markets benign. This provides India might have induced foreign companies to set up shop in India and much-needed space to reform without worrying about use it as a regional hub a decade ago, works when global demand is adverse external shocks. One hopes she uses it wisely.n falling. Perhaps, a better use of that policy space might have been to cut GST rates to support domestic consumption. They need to con- JAHANGIR AZIZ is Chief Emerging Markets Econo mist, sider whether waiting for India’s bankruptcy courts to resolve the J.P. Morgan Chase Bank. Views expressed are personal

20 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 COVER STORY DEFENCE VISION 2020 THE TRAJECTORY

BY LT GEN. D.S. HOODA FOR FUTURE WARS While technology will play an increasingly dominant role in conflicts, strategists need to factor in the human, social and political dimensions as well

communication networks, cripple power stations, disrupt transportation and paralyse the digital fi- nancial system. Hypersonic missiles will render cur- rent air defence systems obsolete and leave our cities and their people vulnerable to surprise attacks. None of these scenarios is today out of the realm of possibility, but, in preparing for future warfare, we must not forget that wars are driven not merely by technology but also have a human, social and political dimension. If we are to successfully fight future wars, all these dimensions must be factored into our planning. Some answers to how conflicts could unfold also do not require a great leap into the future. Study- ing the current trends and their forward trajectory AN ADDRESS TO WEST POINT cadets in February 2011, the US could provide pointers to the direction in which we Secretary IofIDefense Robert Gates said, “When it comes to pre- are headed. Let me outline four such trends. dicting the nature and location of our next military engagements, since Vietnam, our record has been perfect. We have never once THE DOMINANCE OF INFORMATION gotten it right, from the Mayaguez to Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Liddell Hart said, “The profoundest truth of war the Balkans, Haiti, Kuwait, Iraq, and more—we had no idea a is that the issue of battle is usually decided in the year before any of these missions that we would be so engaged.” minds of the opposing commanders, not in the Military history is littered with ruined reputations of gener- bodies of their men.” This is true even today, but als and strategists who attempted to pre- has taken on an entirely new dict how and where the next war would play meaning. Commanders, includ- out. Nonetheless, we have to undertake this ing political leaders, would be exercise if we are not to fall into the trap of TODAY, NATIONS ARE ENGAGED influenced more by the percep- preparing to “fight the last war”. IN‘GREY ZONE’ WARFARE THAT tions of their own population In most of our future-gazing, we focus rather than enemy actions. on technology as the main shaping element SEEKS TO STAY BELOW THE Whichever side controls of the character of warfare. We envision a the narrative will be victorious. future battlefield dominated by armed and THRESHOLD OF A FULL-SCALE Today, the social media stands autonomous robots under a sky blanketed by WAR WHILE LAUNCHING weaponised, echo chambers swarms of drones carrying out precision at- have been created, and “filter tacks. Cyber attacks will take down military COVERT ATTACKS bubbles” isolate us from alter-

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 21

COVER STORY DEFENCE VISION 2020 native viewpoints. In these conditions, large sections of the popu- How will all this affect the global security lation can be swayed towards a false narrative spun by the enemy. landscape? Advances in civil technology are keep- A political leadership that thrives on social media approbation ing pace and, in some cases, outstripping military may find its policies dictated by popular opinions rather than technology. Armed with these, weaker nations may strategic considerations. The more toxic the social and political find it easier to wage war against superior foes. A environment in the country, the higher will be its vulnerability. war that would be fought in the virtual domain or by long-range missiles (North Korea is one such ERADICATION OF FRONTLINES example) without risking armies, aircraft and ships. In the past, there were neatly divided frontlines where soldiers We could see higher risk-taking among leaders. bled in attacking each other’s trenches. World War II did see mas- The reason why cyber attacks are launched with sive aerial bombing on population centres, but victory was still a degree of impunity is that attribution of these defined by soldiers capturing territory after overcoming the en- attacks to a nation-state is extremely difficult. Cy- emy’s defences. In India, we have fought four major wars in which ber attacks against civilian infrastructure, like the the civilians have been largely left untouched. This could change. Iranian hacking of a US casino company in 2014 or Long-range ballistic missiles targeting strategic installations the North Korean attack on Sony Pictures, are now in the heartland of the country could be the opening salvo of common, rarely eliciting a strong national response. war. Cyber attacks would affect the daily routine and comfort of The trends point towards greater geopolitical people far away from the battlefield. Even if we achieve a quick instability, and preventing wars could become more and decisive victory over the enemy’s forces, difficult. There are no internation- winning the peace may be a more difficult task. ally defined rules or even bilateral “War amongst the people”, as General Rupert pacts about how future technolo- Smith described it, would continue, as is being THERE IS A GROWING gies, particularly Artificial Intel- witnessed in Afghanistan, West Asia, and even ligence, should be regulated in in Jammu and Kashmir. DEBATE ON WHETHER warfare. In fact, the reverse is true as nations race to build a techno- THE BLURRING OF PEACE AND WAR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE logical advantage that could give War has traditionally been open and declared WILL DRIVE HUMANS OUT them an edge during war. armed conf lict between nations, but this defini- Our traditional notions of de- tion may no longer be entirely accurate. Coun- OF THE DECISION LOOP, terrence no longer hold good. If tries are engaged in “grey zone” warfare that war and peace are intermingled, seeks to stay below the threshold of a full-scale WITH MACHINES TAKING the individual human mind is the war while launching covert and surrogate at- AUTONOMOUS DECISIONS battlespace, and divisions in so- tacks. Conventional military weakness is no bar ciety can be engineered through as cutting-edge technologies are becoming avail- social media, the threat of nuclear able to state and non-state actors. As Andrew missiles and massive armies will Krepinevich put it, there is a “democratisation of destruction”. Cyber not be a deterrent. attacks, disinformation campaigns, attempts to inf luence election South Asia is home to one-fourth of the world’s outcomes and even destructive attacks like the one on the Saudi population and is racked by internal conflicts and Aramco oil facility have blurred the lines between war and peace. external rivalries. China, with great power ambi- tions, will seek to impose its hegemony in Asia and HUMANS OUT OF THE LOOP reduce the influence of India in South Asia. China’s There is an increasing debate on whether advances in Artificial proxy in the region is Pakistan, which is already en- Intelligence will drive humans out of the decision loop, with ma- gaged in a ‘grey zone’ war with India. Our internal chines taking autonomous decisions. Some say this is unlikely. faultlines, unless speedily addressed, could become But there would be no simple answers during times of crisis and a serious vulnerability in a future conflict. quick decision-making. How do we prepare to confront these threats? On July 3, 1988, the USS Vincennes, on patrol in the Persian The military certainly has to focus on the adoption Gulf, shot down an Iran Air Airbus A300, killing all 290 persons of new technologies, but of greater importance is on board. Although the aircraft was on a steady course and trans- that society must become more resilient, particu- mitting a signal showing it to be a civil airliner, the advanced Aegis larly to an information assault that seeks to influ- Combat System aboard the Vincennes incorrectly identified it as ence or divide people. Future war will leave no one an Iranian F-14. What followed is described in P.W. Singer’s book untouched, and we will have to collectively fight it. n Wired for War: “Even though the hard data was telling the crew that the plane wasn’t a fighter jet, they trusted what the computer LT GEN. D.S. HOODA is former General Officer was telling them more… They authorised it to fire.” Commanding, Northern Command, Indian Army

Illustration by SIDDHANT JUMDE JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 23 COVER STORY POLITICS VISION 2020 FUTURE SHOCK Will the India of 2029 be ruled by a presidential strongman? Will dissent and political pluralism survive or will we surrender to a majoritarian theocracy? Predicting trends in Indian politics is fraught with risks—and the temptation to succumb to our worst fears or BY RAJDEEP SARDESAI fondest hopes. But if the past is any compass, the decade ahead will be full of surprises

being freely written and the search is on for a ‘new’ oppositional force. How wrong the political pundits were: the white-bearded regional boss of 2009 is the 2019 unquestioned Big Boss of Indian politics, a po- larising political figure, but also an alluring mascot of dramatic change and disruption who has system- atically targeted the Nehruvian order. Ten years on. The next decade. How do you pre- dict anything with any certitude in the turbulent universe of Indian politics where 12 hours are often enough to shift power equations (if you think that’s an exaggeration, do consider Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar’s recent Maharashtra gambit)? Don’t forget that the BJP, which controlled 71 per cent of FAST FORWARD TO THEindia today issue of December 2029 the country in March 2017, now rules less than half reviewing a tumultuousFF decade in Indian politics. A 79-year-old that land mass. Which is why it is perhaps safer to Narendra Modi has been elected for a fourth consecutive term and, this time, imperiously, is planning a move to Rashtrapati Bhavan. The Constitution has been amended to create a presiden- tial form of government, and the electoral system has undergone a drastic change. Supervising the makeover is Amit Shah, deputy prime minister for the past five years. Simultaneous Lok Sabha and state assembly elections have been held, but ultimate power vests in the office of a directly elected president. Other consti- tutional changes have seen the word ‘secularism’ being dropped from the Constitution: India is now unofficially a Hindu Republic. And then, suddenly, just as the decade draws to a close, there is a popular revolt: a widespread demand for the withdrawal of the president-for-life order. Under pressure, the all-powerful political strongman relents: the constitutional changes are rolled back, fresh elections to a duly elected Parliament are ordered. Fantasy? Yes. Totally unimaginable? No. Just rewind now to the reality of December 2009. The BJP has just been decimated, ending up with almost a hundred seats less than the No. 1 party, the Congress. L.K. Advani looks tired, Vajpayee has retired and there seems no immediate hope for recovery. The Congress-led UPA seems to have a semi-permanent stranglehold over power and the country appears to have decisively rejected the politics of the Hindu Right. As Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi is stereotyped as a divisive regional satrap who is unsuited for the age of coalition politics at the Centre. It’s all over, it seems: obituaries of the BJP are

24 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 focus on the big picture rather than be trapped in over the shifting demographic patterns in the region. A coercive the 24x7 whirl of a news cycle. If the past decade state finds it hard to stamp its authority on local antagonisms. has seen the Indian polity take a sharp turn to the The north-south divide further widens in the course of a de- right, the next one could see this trend being further cade of confrontational politics. The ‘Hindi-Hindu-Hindustan’ cemented. The BJP may suffer the odd electoral battle-cry breeds anger and resentment. The unilateral declara- defeat in state elections, but the ideology of politi- tion of a presidential system by the BJP leadership in Delhi sees cal Hindutva will remain an overriding narrative. at least four southern states demand a referendum on the issue. More than one generation has been bombarded with Regional identities see an assertion of nativist sub-nationalisms coarse anti-Muslim propaganda and the country’s with even greater vigour: an alliance of southern chief ministers expanding middle class, in particular, has rediscov- threatens to walk out of centrally-mandated projects unless there ered its ‘Hindu roots’. By 2024, an imposing Ram is a greater share of revenue for the high-performing states. temple complex would be up in Ayodhya, and lines While the BJP remains party No. 1 by holding on to the more between state and religion would be totally blurred. populous states of the north and its base in the west, there are Kashi and Mathura would have been handed over signs that the one leader, one party, one nation project is subject to an RSS-VHP-sponsored trust and work begun to diminishing returns. Modi remains popular, but the politics of to renovate these two holy sites too. A special task populist nationalism is now being challenged by those who feel force and ministry would be in place for cow protec- troubled by economic anxiety and social upheaval. The defiance tion nationwide. Minority institutes will be denied isn’t coming so much from an enfeebled traditional political class: state funding and there will be a clear attempt to the Congress, in particular, remains trapped in a ubiquitous high homogenise the education system. command dynastic culture. Between 2020 and 2029, the Con- But by 2029, there are fissures too in the gargan- gress undergoes three splits, Rahul Gandhi has thrice resigned tuan Hindu Rashtra project. The nation’s periphery and returned, his sister Priyanka is the party’s working president. is on the boil: an attempt to ‘capture’ Pakistan-oc- This is still a party living in sepia-tinted nostalgia, disconnected cupied Kashmir has not succeeded. A US-mediated from the urges of a meritocratic, ‘new’ India. truce forces India and Pakistan to accept both sides Instead, it is civil society groups who have come together to of the Kashmir divide as a single entity with semi- warn against autocratic tendencies: large street protests have been autonomous status. In Na- ruthlessly crushed by a police state, but networks of en- galand, there are renewed lightened professionals, unemployed youth, distressed secessionist demands while farmers and marginalised communities, operating ef- other parts of the Northeast IT IS 2029 AND WHILE THE fectively in a hyper-digitalised ecosystem, are not giv- see a fresh eruption of ethnic BJP IS STILL NO. 1, THERE ing up. A new political force representing these groups conf licts, fuelled by concerns has emerged as the main opposition in the country, ARE SIGNS OF DIMINISHING offering a distinct democratic challenge to the prospect of an elected autocracy and forcing a pushback. RETURNS FOR THE ONE Which is also why fears of India 2029 being a coun- LEADER, ONE PARTY, ONE try ruled by presidential diktat, a modern-day Hindu Caliphate, a mirror image of Erdogan’s Turkey now, NATION PROJECT need to be weighed against the reality of a country where a million mutinies are always bubbling beneath the surface. To an external observer, democracy may seem to be in recession. The Supreme Court may have surrendered its magisterial autonomy. The media may have lost its moral com- pass. Parliament may have been reduced to a notice-board. But never underestimate the capacity for resistance from unexpected quarters: it could come from campuses in ferment or farmers in anguish. Or, as the events of December 2019 have shown, just from ordinary Indians who may see the CAA, NRC, NPR as different variants of a complicated political vocabulary, but who are determined to make their voices heard. Rewind to 1977 and Jayaprakash Narayan’s rousing anti-Emergency slogan: ‘Sinhasan khali karo ki janata aati hai (Leave the throne, the people are coming)’. There is no JP-like moral force on the horizon today but who knows what another decade of intense political disruption and dictatorial impulses could throw up. n

RAJDEEP SARDESAI is Consulting Editor at India Today Television and author of 2019: How Modi Won India

Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY COVER STORY FOREIGN AFFAIRS VISION 2020

BY T.C.A. RAGHAVAN CHASING THE DRAGON China will be a defining factor in the decade ahead and India must reorient itself to confront the geopolitical challenges of a new world order greater equity in international power and markets, addressing the challenge of climate change while keeping in perspective our development priorities, strengthening the global consensus against terror- ism etc. So, if we take a decade-long view, what can possibly be different in the 2020s from the past? Or, has anything changed at all? Perhaps the really big change—and this may well define the 2020s—is that the China factor, in all its multifarious aspects, will loom larger than ever. This, obviously, is not a change only for India. In every foreign office, in every chancery and in every think-tank, China will be a common thread. Nevertheless, for us, the interface will have a disti- nctive quality: it is predicated by our proximity with all its security and military implications, our comparable sizes and population, the contrast of our governance systems and, finally, most of all, our roughly similar economic trajectories till the 1980s, FROM THE 1950S ONWARDS, at the beginning of each decade, if our and the acceleration of Chinese growth thereafter. geopolitical challengesFF and objectives were to be compared, the con- If China is going to be the defining factor for our vergences would stand out. Vocabulary and terminological changes geopolitics in the coming decade, it will comprise aside, continuities would easily outweigh any major changes or di- numerous dimensions beyond conventional think- vergences of policy. From this perspective, for the decade ahead, our ing. Of these, three in particular stand out. priorities look no different: securing the neighbourhood, maintain- The first is how we make ourselves look at our ing stable relations with the big powers, having the freedom to take domestic social development indices in a more ex- decisions in our own interest and, most of all, securing an external plicitly geopolitical frame. Clearly, this follows be- environment that is conducive to our economic development. In cause of the extraordinary achievements of China thematic terms also, the convergences would stand out: securing in improving the quality of life of its citizens. Aggre-

26 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 of our priorities. Whether or not we chose to define our priorities in this manner, the fact is others will judge us on this template. That is why social development in the widest sense becomes a geopolitical objective for us for the 2020s. The second question is how we reorient ourselves with respect to our neighbours. The rise of China means it is now going to be ever present as a balancing factor in each of our neighbour’s interface with us. Our historical ap- proach towards our neighbourhood has been that keeping it insulated from outside great powers is both in our interest as also that of our neighbours. We may not have always been successful, but it re- mained a template to aim for. The big change now is we have a great power—or a near great power—within our neighbourhood. How to deal with this will require a reorientation of our conventional thinking and approach. Do we embrace this change, resist it or work our way around it? Our approach will vary with each neighbour and also from situa- tion to situation. Nevertheless, the reorientation in thinking is going to be real enough and it will not be easy. Implicit so far has been the perception that our constitutional provisions—and not just those with regard to federalism—can act as a template for our neighbours. This perception now has a competitor in the form of a new narra- tive for modernity that China projects. This is not to make the case that the China-Pakistan relationship will be replicated elsewhere in South Asia. Views about China elsewhere are far too nuanced CHINA ALREADY for that to happen, sovereignty is carefully guarded and Pakistan’s dependence on outside powers (and not just China) is seen as a LOOMS LARGE IN OUR situation to be avoided at all costs. Nevertheless, China’s economic and social progress acts a kind of magnet for all our neighbours and CONVENTIONAL GEOPOLITICAL we will need to understand this and foreground it in our approach. IMAGINATION—AS The third question that necessitates a reorientation is thinking more in maritime terms. This shift is inevitable—as our economy ‘CHALLENGE’, ‘THREAT’ becomes more externally focused, foreign trade will make up a greater fraction of our GDP. The bulk of this trade will be through OR ‘OPPORTUNITY’ the Indian Ocean and the maritime therefore has to occupy a much larger space in our mental map. The discussions about the Indo- gate figures are useful to illustrate this. At the end Pacific since 2018 on the one hand, or the setting up in 2019 of an of the 1970s, GDP per capita for China and India independent department of fisheries at the Centre on the other, ill- were comparable. By 2019, the orders of magnitude ustrate this growing maritime turn. But the process has just begun. had diverged and the difference is now a multiple of The coming decade will also witness the intensification of the 4, if not 5. The scale of our achievement, given our Chinese maritime spread. How we interface with this will depend democratic framework, is significant; but Chinese on our own maritime domain awareness. This means much more progress has been staggering. than naval preparedness and covers the entire gamut from coastal The advance in material wellbeing of China’s development to maritime infrastructure and perhaps the most dif- large population has become a geopolitical plus ficult of all—maritime knowledge. Consciousness of ourselves as an for its government as also an unstated template by Indian Ocean state means going beyond the standard continental which others judge India. More significant is the contrasts—of the north and the south—as also thinking beyond fact that this has strengthened other forces that the conventional difficulties of Pakistan, Afghanistan or even how now define China’s growing soft power—in control our northern and northwestern borders cut us off the land mass of of information, knowledge production and tour- Asia. A maritime construct will begin with even wider contrasts, ism. China already looms large in our conventional as between the eastern and western Indian oceans, the Arabian geopolitical imagination—as ‘challenge’, ‘threat’ Sea and the Bay of Bengal and, finally, our east and west coasts. n or ‘opportunity’. Yet howsoever it is so construed, replicating its advances in basic literacy, higher T.C.A. RAGHAVAN, a former Indian high commissioner to education, sanitation, public health, nutrition and Singapore and Pakistan, is currently Director-General, social infrastructure seems essential in any listing Indian Council of World Affairs. Views are personal

Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 27 COVER STORY VISION 2020 URBANISATION METROPOLIS NOW Planned, smart urbanisation can unlock BY AMITABH KANT India’s potential for growth

and the Gandhian worldview were rural devel- opment-oriented, with the village being seen as a self-sustained economic unit. It was the same with China’s peasantry-led revolution. In the early 1970s, China realised it could not achieve economic RECENT STUDIES HAVE PROJECTED that India will face an growth and employment creation through agricul- unprecedented RscaleR of urbanisation—350 million Indians will ture. It recognised that urbanisation was an essen- move to cities by 2030; a number likely to double to 700 million by tial feature of economic development and a major 2050. This is 2.5 times the size of the US’s present population and component of industrialisation and modernisation. will be the largest urban movement in the world. This implies that For China, economic development was, in esse- every minute during the next 20 years, 30 Indians will leave rural nce, about shifting people from sustenance farming India for urban areas. The late management guru C.K. Prahalad to manufacturing, and urbanisation its spatial mani- had emphasised the imperative need for India to create 500 new festation. As a policy, it adopted rapid, planned ur- cities to accommodate and provide a better quality life to its migrat- banisation, with manufacturing as the key locomo- ing people. Otherwise, every existing city would become a slum. tive. The development of new cities and expansion of In the modern-day world, it is cities and not countries that existing ones have been a dominant feature of China’s compete for resources and investment; they are the centres of growth in the past 30 years. Starting with the devel- growth, innovation and creativity. The GDP of New York and opment of a planned city in Suzhou in partnership Tokyo are at par with India’s GDP. Not a single Indian city figures with Singapore, China developed a large number of in the top 100 cities of the world. The future of India’s growth lies new cities through a successful business model of in the dynamism and vibrancy of its cities. In India, farming ac- monetisation of land values. Mayors competed with counts for more than 58 per cent of the workforce but is only 14.2 each other to create new cities, and successful mayors per cent of GDP. Agriculture can sustain a growth rate of 3 per rose rapidly in the Communist Party hierarchy. cent while the Indian economy must grow at 8-9 per cent for the In sharp contrast, the only cities created in post- next three decades to lift vast segments of its population above the Independence India are the capital cities of Chan- poverty line. No country has grown on a sustained basis for long digarh and Gandhinagar and the only major urban periods on the back of agriculture. It is, therefore, inevitable that scheme launched in our entire planning process has people will migrate from rural to urban centres. been the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mis- India has been a reluctant urbaniser. Its freedom movement sion. Only recently have we focused on Smart Cities

28 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 projects identified for satisfying the need of $4.5 trillion worth of infrastructure investment by 2040. This will improve the qual- ity of life and infrastructure in the selected area of the city and act as a beacon for the rest of the city and other cities. Cities need to put in place a digital transformation roadmap across both hard infrastructure and software applications for full integration of collected data to support informed planning and decision-making. Projects in the scheme also need to be speeded up while other cities need to leverage from model documents, new initiatives, technologies as well as overseas examples.

he transport demand in India has grown by almost eight times since 1980, with several positive out- comes, including a thriving auto industry and al- lied economic growth though with the unintended challenge of pollution and traffic congestion. The TT number of registered motor vehicles has gone up from 5.4 million in 1981 to 230 million in 2016. To tackle the problem of overcrowding of roads, increased travel time, the pro- pensity to use private vehicles, it is necessary to substantially enhance urban mobility solutions such as MRTS, supported with last-mile connectivity. The Metro Rail policy has resulted in 666 km of operational metros and another 852 km under construction. With more efficient vehicle technologies and E-vehicles, we can

save about 1.5 gigatonne of CO2 emissions by 2035. The growing shared mobility ecosystem has the potential to create new jobs as it shifts towards a shared, connected and zero-emission world. and the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Non-motorised transport and pedestrian movement also needs Transportation (AMRUT). By 2020, India will to be encouraged to reduce pollution. Transit-oriented develop- face a housing shortage of 30 million units, require ment, therefore, is the need of the hour. 200 million water connections, need to provide 350 Scientific management of 148,000 metric tonnes of municipal million people access to sewage and add 160 GW of solid waste generated per day is a major challenge. Segregation at power-generating capacity. The number of vehicles on source and segregated collection and transportation to the mate- roads will increase fivefold. There is, thus, an over- rial recycling facilities or waste to energy plants and other new riding need to rejuvenate and revitalise India’s exist- technologies for onward use contributing to the circular economy ing towns and cities and create new greenfield cities. need to be prioritised. Waste processing offers vast opportunities The cost of not doing anything or moving slowly will for private sector participation. Remediation of existing landfill be enormous and seriously retard India’s growth. sites to reclaim valuable land should be a prime focus. Private While India is a late starter, it has the significant sector capital and efficiencies in the entire value chain of solid advantage of being able to use technology to leapfrog waste management and creating necessary infrastructure besides stages of development and learn from good practices enabling ease of doing business in the sector is critical. in other parts of the world. When cities were made With about 820 million people living in a high water stress in America, gas and water were cheaply available. situation, water resources management has only now come into Cities were made for cars, not people. Today, digital focus. Water conservation, waste water recycling and reuse require technology enables us to create intelligent and smart a robust PPP mechanism in urban areas to encourage the private cities with a central command room horizontally sector to set up waste water treatment plants. Use of treated wa- managing power, water, transportation and public ter needs to be promoted along with appropriate pricing of fresh safety. We need to develop cities that are compact, water to discourage wastage of water by urban local bodies. dense and vertical, evolve along efficient mass transit As India urbanises, it will face severe challenges. But there systems and encourage cycling and walking. are also huge opportunities for sustainable growth that can have The Smart Cities Mission has been launched a dramatic impact on the quality of life of the expected 700 million in 100 cities with components like retrofitting, urban citizens. How India manages its urbanisation in the com- redevelopment and greenfield development and ing decades will determine its future. This will require political increased use of AI and digital technology to make leadership, vision, capacity-building and institutional reforms. n the cities efficient. The mission contributes Rs 2,05,018 crore worth of infrastructure in 5,151 AMITABH KANT is CEO, NITI Aayog. Views expressed are personal

Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 29 COVER STORY TRANSPORT VISION 2020 CARRIED AWAY We need transport technology we can use and BY B.V.R. SUBBU afford, not driverless fantasies

the Japanese involvement in the project, for it may eventually mean that only cement for the project is procured in India and, on one pretext or another, ev- erything else is procured from Japan, with little ‘core technology’ production and future development capability being transferred to Indian entities. Wor- ryingly, traffic experts have been concerned about demand for the first bullet train, and some have suggested a focus on India’s golden growth quad- rilateral of Bangalore-Pune-Hyderabad-Chennai as the one with the highest effective demand and growth potential. And even before construction work starts on the project, talk is already rife of the next big idea—the Hyperloop— with the promise of moving people at twice the speed of a bullet train! In the evening peak hour, the 10-km distance THE FOCUS ONTTMODERNISING mass transport in keeping with from Phase 3 of Hinjewadi, in Pune’s IT industry new technology paradigms that we have witnessed over the past hub, to the National Highway 4 bypass that leads on five years is probably best symbolised by the bullet train and the to the Mumbai Pune Expressway often takes as long urban electric bus projects. Yet, as we enter the next decade, their as 50 minutes. Whether it is poor layout planning, true value may come into sharp focus and face some searching worse road geometry or simply traffic management questions. There is no doubt at all that high-speed passenger train gone horribly wrong, it just appears to get messier linkages between large urban centres is an imperative for better by the day. But from there, India’s financial district distributed economic growth with orderly urbanisation. But rail Nariman Point is just over two hours away despite engineering experts are divided over the question of whether more three rather inefficient toll plazas in between. All appropriate and cost-efficient technologies would have fit the bill that could well become a thing of the past, accord- better. Developments in the Advanced Driver Assistance System ing to the Government of Maharashtra which (ADAS) technologies have already moved from the automobile signed off on a pilot project to build an 11-km-long industry to ensure higher levels of safety and productivity from hyperloop facility that is part of its grand vision existing locomotives. Blind spot detection, front collision warn- to reduce travel time between suburban Mumbai ing and driver status monitoring systems are already combining and Pune to just 35 minutes! The cost? A mere Rs to improve safety and enabling driver behaviour monitoring that 3,600 crore for the pilot! But who cares? It’s small corrects operating practices and helps reduce track wear and tear, change indeed when you are preparing for a glori- in turn enabling higher operating speeds and improved productiv- ous future for both the cities—or have an election ity. Past experience over several industries also raises concerns over to face. Except, it might well cost over Rs 50,000

30 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 crore for the entire line to actually see the light of day—perhaps by friendly. It is theoretically possible, but engineer- the end of the new decade—and deliver a completely unaffordable ing remains a challenge, safety has not yet been and, thanks to last-mile connectivity issues, a less-than-efficient proved and the effects on the human body have travel alternative for users. (Incidentally, just for a comparison, yet to be conclusively determined despite a 500 the entire central government outlay on health services last year metre test facility in the US and a usable facility was Rs 64,000 crore.) for one-minute rides under a convention centre in The hyperloop is indeed a great idea, quite possibly even the Las Vegas scheduled for opening late in 2020. So, Holy Grail—fast, energy-efficient and not environmentally-un- until the hyperloop actually happens and becomes

Illustration by SIDDHANT JUMDE JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 31 TRANSPORT

commonplace in the US, Europe and China, can’t heavy vehicles—even trains—since they do not have to carry the we simply focus more on here-and-now technolo- dead weight of large battery packs and can instead be refilled with gies? Please, could we simply have better-managed, pressurised hydrogen from roadside filling stations. There is also a better-maintained, more reliable systems to meet fair amount of ongoing research and proven development in India our requirements in India? on generating hydrogen. From making hydrogen using naphtha as a feedstock in our refineries to extracting it from coke oven gas his periodic dalliance of our policy- at our collieries (India produces about 50 million tonnes of coking makers with the great and the glori- coal annually), there are a variety of options. But undoubtedly the ous, the newest and most esoteric, most interesting from India’s viewpoint might well be the research the glitziest technologies—often being done on generating hydrogen gas from biomass wastes. those best promoted by corporates— Studies indicate that India’s buses and trucks consume 35 million TT tends to confuse optimum solutions tonnes of hydrocarbons annually. These can be replaced by just 8 with dreams much to the detriment of the economy million tonnes of hydrogen used for fuel cells, which in turn can at large. Consider our approach to the other big be produced using about 400 million tonnes of biomass. Given move of the past five years—electric buses for urban that India’s present production of biomass waste is in the region operations. Conceptualised by policy mavens with of 200 million tonnes, it seems reasonable to expect that a large expensive lithium ion batteries, and as promoted— proportion of India’s hydrogen production could well be through and heavily subsidised—presently, they effectively this route. The distributed nature of a hydrogen production net- transport less than a third as many people for the work based on agri/ biomass waste has the additional advantage same capital expenditure as of being a commercially sustainable production presently available technolo- model. Also, since hydrogen is not compatible with gies. Yet, they appear to have existing gas pipelines for transportation, such a become all the rage in the drive RATHER THAN GO FOR distributed production system can be built with for cleaner urban mass trans- its own localised distribution networks. Undoubt- port—in effect, making India GLITZY TECHNOLOGIES, edly, it could take a good part of a decade to become over-dependent on just one ubiquitous and convenient, but starting on the NH1 country as a source for both INDIA CAN PERHAPS INVEST could be an exceptional technology demonstration. batteries and buses. There are IN HERE-AND-NOW ONES, (Consider the outstanding success of the NDDB- simpler solutions with poten- promoted biomass gas schemes for dairy-depen- tially far greater localisation in LIKE HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS dent households in Gujarat, to understand the full manufactured value—like trol- potential such a development can actually unleash.) ley buses—staring us in the FOR BUSES AND TRUCKS And if things go really well in the states of Punjab face. Proven technologies used and Haryana, agri-waste may well end up being all over the world, from San converted into hydrogen rather than be burnt in Francisco to Frankfurt to Moscow to Beijing to the fields and end up suffocating Delhi NCR! even Kathmandu. But if your mind is made up at Even as we work on alternatives to the scarce raw materi- well-organised global seminars, is there much hope al-based batteries, perhaps policymakers ought to start think- for holistic thinking? ing in terms of recycling valuable materials to put them back Perhaps the country ought to start investing into the manufacturing supply chain. Europe, for instance, is instead in the development of hydrogen fuel cells already working on ensuring that 50 per cent of the material in for our buses and trucks. The year 2020 may well new lithium ion cells is from recycled sources. Process designs become the year of the hydrogen fuel cells. At the for hydro-metallurgical treatment presently being developed Tokyo Olympics, 100 electric buses using hydro- can recover enough lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese to be gen fuel cells are going to be operated to showcase economically viable. And this is only improving. With probably the technology and its reliability—beyond all the 100,000 tonnes of batteries potentially coming up for recycling Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) already on the every year in India, should this then become an area of research streets of the world. FCEV, as different from Battery focus for the government? Electric Vehicles (BEV), essentially generate power At the risk of sounding curmudgeonly, would it be too much to on board through a chemical reaction, emitting ask our policymakers in the 2020 decade to start focusing on bak- drinking quality water in the process rather than ing good bread before dreaming about three-tiered cream cakes? n by using large, heavy battery power packs based on expensive materials like lithium and cobalt, which B.V.R. SUBBU is an auto industry veteran and EV evangelist. He in turn are charged from an existing power grid. serves on the boards of companies across the EV eco-system from Why is hydrogen so relevant to India? FCEV technology, engineering and E-drivelines to EVs and shared mobility. He is the author of SANTRO: The Car That Built a Company have a basic advantage for trucks, buses and other

32 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 COVER STORY TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020 SOLID STATE

BY ARUN MOHAN SUKUMAR TECHNOLOGY Politics has singularly shaped the trajectory of technological progress in India and, in the coming decade, the state will encounter the temptations of big data

on—but NICNET was able to establish a presence in almost every district in India, thanks partly due to then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s push for computerisation. Here was a scaleable database, packed to the gills with information, and capable of unlocking In- dia’s potential by opening its socio-economic indices to the world. “Big Data” was born in India a decade before Larry Page and Ser- gey Brin’s algorithms would marshal information from across the planet and create the most powerful search engine ever to exist. Why, then, have most Indians not heard of NICNET? Why did this futuristic network become a footnote in India’s governance story? The answer is, alas, all too predictable—politics. Politics has singularly shaped the trajectory of technological advancement of India since Independence—and if the past is indeed a prologue, WELL BEFORE TWO BRILLIANT graduate this coming decade will be no different. students met at Stanford in 1998 and wrote lines Buoyed by a strong, internal network, NICNET needed the of code to trawl the World Wide Web, India had internet to go public and reach a wider audience of PSUs and pri- already created its own Google. And no, this is not vate businesses. When India opened its doors to the commercial another story of an ancient and once-great India internet on August 15, 1995, NICNET, too, hoped to go online. where plastic surgery was performed on gods, or The Department of Telecommunications and Videsh Sanchar pushpak viman was the preferred mode of trans- Nigam Ltd (VSNL), however, wanted to retain their status as the port for asuras. NICNET, as it was known, existed sole purveyor of internet services and would brook no competition in flesh and blood, brought to life in the late 1980s from NICNET. As is often the case, big moments in history are by a crack team at the National Informatics Cen- often rooted in small, insignificant controversies. Seshagiri and tre (NIC) in New Delhi. Led by the B.K. Syngal, VSNL’s chairman, were rivals and technocrat Narasimhaiah Seshagi- deeply suspicious of each other’s motives. At a ri, NIC built a “query-able”, nation- WHY DID NICNET, A meeting to discuss the possibility of NICNET- wide database from which Indian VSNL collaboration, Seshagiri accused VSNL’s officials could extract granular FUTURISTIC GOOGLE-LIKE leadership of being “insecure”. According to a and valuable information about NETWORK, BECOME A Times of India report, Syngal responded by districts in any nook and corner of calling Seshagiri’s concerns “absolute bullshit”. the country. Sure, there were teeth- MERE FOOTNOTE IN INDIA’S And that was the end of NICNET’s aspirations ing troubles—babus reluctant to to become the first Google. learn data entry, lack of reliable GOVERNANCE STORY? THE It’s not just internecine bureaucratic rivalry electricity connections to power ANSWER, ALAS, IS ALL TOO that poisoned the march of technology in mod- computers, political resistance to ern India, high politics was equally a culprit. transparent e-governance, and so PREDICTABLE—POLITICS In 1983, when the Indian government sought

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 33 COVER STORY TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020

to set up the country’s first semiconductor manu- was arm-twisted—by the account of her own scientific advisor, facturing unit, its choices for the plant’s location the late Ashok Parthasarathi—into choosing Mohali by her ally, whittled down to Madras (now Chennai) or Mohali. and then chief minister of Punjab, Zail Singh. Having entered the Madras seemed the obvious choice, since access to fight with one arm tied behind its back, SCL was in no position to the Coromandel coast guaranteed abundant water compete with its peers globally. A mysterious fire at the complex a supply and moderate climes. As it turned out, Ma- few years later extinguished whatever hopes India had to become dras would also be a few hours away from the mecca a semiconductor hub. of India’s IT revolution, Bengaluru. However, In- That technological advancement and politics in India have dira Gandhi chose Mohali instead to establish the been joined at the hip since the dawn of the republic should not Semiconductor Complex Ltd. The prime minister surprise anyone. Our country attained freedom in the aftermath

Illustration by SIDDHANT JUMDE 34 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 of atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The pos- too—like its predecessors—has found it difficult to sibilities of the Atomic Age were terrifying, but for newly liberated resist injecting politics into technology. With reck- countries, they were also limitless. Most technologies needed to less abandon, it has shut down internet in parts of modernise an economy and secure a nation today—from radar India when faced with non-violent protests against equipment and microwave to DDT and food processing—were the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019. With developed during the War. India desperately needed these tech- no legal basis, it has deployed frontier technolo- nologies, but could not properly disengage itself from the politics gies like facial recognition and unmanned drones that had marked our freedom struggle. Mahatma Gandhi, its to monitor the protests. It has compromised the leading light, famously mistrusted machines, and as his political integrity of economic statistics and public data to legatee, Jawaharlal Nehru was constrained to keep Big Technol- limit political fallout. And let us not forget: many ogy at an arm’s length. parties in India today resort to misinformation campaigns, but the channeling of digital platforms the ensuing decades, this scepticism of tech- into a potent political force for attacking its oppo- nology manifested itself in various avatars: in sition was the BJP’s original sin. Walls of suspicion the 1970s, the Indian government harvested and mistrust between the citizen and machine, the anger of labour unions to discourage com- which took decades to be dismantled, have once puterisation in PSUs. A committee appointed again come up in India. InIn by the labour ministry in 1972 found no evi- In a raucous democracy such as ours, it may dence to suggest automation would result in never really be feasible to neatly widespread job losses, but the government pan- separate technological advance- dered to populism anyway. Ironically, our space ment from attendant, national and nuclear programmes—insulated from ev- IN A RAUCOUS DEMOCRACY politics. In fact, the country eryday politics—went from strength to strength would be ill-served by a soulless during this period, becoming a source of pride SUCH AS INDIA’S, IT technocracy determining the for the country. Indians were asked to turn MAY NEVER REALLY BE ends to which scientific break- their gaze to the skies and laud the spectacle of throughs should be deployed. a space launch, but they had to make do with FEASIBLE TO NEATLY The coming decade will see a motor-fitted bullock carts on the ground. V.S. comprehensive “informatisation” Naipaul famously termed the mechanisation of SEPARATE TECHNOLOGICAL of society: troves of data collect- bullock carts “a fascinating intellectual adven- ADVANCEMENT FROM ed by Internet of Things devices ture for the people concerned, but sterile, di- and sentient machines will steer vorced from reality and usefulness”. NATIONAL POLITICS the country’s social, economic It was only in the late 1980s, as the econo- and strategic decision-making my opened up, that Indians began to embrace processes. No longer will modern consumer-facing technologies; be it washing machines, refrigera- machines be the privy of a small and elite group tors, air-conditioners, Hitachi televisions, Casio watches or Sony of Indians—but this will also raise the stakes. Walkmen. The intervening decades between the 1991 reforms and The wider the catchment area of technology, the present-day India saw personal computing and, subsequently, more politicians will be drawn to it. It is not to the mobile telephones become ubiquitous. Indian companies helped community of Indian entrepreneurs or technolo- ‘fix’ Y2K-aff licted machines in the West at the turn of the millen- gists that we should be turning our attention to. nium, sending their revenues soaring and triggering mass interest They are among the best in the world and capable in software programming. Indian intervention to ‘debug’ Y2K was of adapting to the technological disruption that possible because the political class stayed away from the fledgling is about to follow. It is, instead, the Indian State, software export industry—it was too small to be consequential— whose political calculations will make or break allowing it to grow, quite literally, at night while the country slept. the prospects for technological growth in the Cut to the present: Narendra Modi’s ascendance onto the country. Seven decades on, our governing class national stage in 2014 coincided with a sweet spot in India’s arc of has come to see technology first and foremost as technological development. A glut in Chinese manufacturing had an instrument of politics. One hopes the coming resulted in the proliferation of cheap, handheld devices across In- decade will be different. n dia; Indian techies had become a force to reckon with, occupying leadership roles in Silicon Valley; the frigid India-US relationship ARUN MOHAN SUKUMAR is a PhD candidate at had, since the Pokhran nuclear test of 1998, thawed considerably, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, and the opening doors for New Delhi to high technology. author of Midnight’s Machines: A Political History of Technology in India. A lawyer by training, Sukumar Modi’s vision of a ‘Digital India’ had, therefore, a lot of factors headed the technology initiative of the Observer rooting for its successful realisation. However, this government Research Foundation from 2015 to 2019

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 35 COVER STORY AGRICULTURE VISION 2020 THE VANISHING KISAN The agriculture sector needs bold and urgent reforms—not populist BY SWAGATO SARKAR measures—to stop the alarming disintegration of the peasant economy

to increase their income (predominant in southern and western India). Growing cash crops requires in- tensive use of improved but expensive quality seeds, fertilisers and pesticides, and forces farmers to bor- row money. The retreat of public sector banks and cooperatives has exposed these farmers to private moneylenders and left them heavily indebted. With traditional problems, such as uncertain climatic con- ditions—exacerbated by climate change and global warming—water scarcity, soil degradation and vola- tility of crop prices persisting, a peasant’s life is like a candle in the wind. Periodic populist loan waivers do not address the structural problems they face. Agricultural policy is caught in the equity ver- THE KISANS ARE ONE OF THE central figures of our populist sus efficiency debate. The ‘Left’ prioritises equity by political imagination, but will they survive in blood and flesh or arguing for more state interventions: state-led land become relics? The peasants are in distress. The genesis of this and tenancy reforms, investment in developing ir- agrarian crisis liesin the failure of the land reform programme. As rigation facilities and infrastructure, state supply of public policy shiftedfocus from land reforms to Green Revolution inputs, provision of cheaper credit by public sector to solve the food crisis, it also gave away the imperatives of social banks, state procurement of harvest, and strength- justice and equity to the pragmatics of technocracy, creating an ening the public distribution system with these pro- agrarian apartheid. The technocrats wanted Green Revolution cured grains and pulses. The centrists and the ‘Right’ to succeed and, accordingly, chose the rich farmers with large take an efficiency approach, arguing for the develop- landholdings and money to invest as the beneficiary. Since then, ment of, and integration with, markets. They want the policy bias has been permanent. India has created a politically to deploy the latest technology to boost productivity entrenched class of landowners and farmers who have developed and yield and to cut costs and wastage. They propose an elaborate mechanism to capture state subsidies and freebies to reorganise the supply chains to eliminate ‘middle- and avail the benefit of government procurements and minimum men’ [sic] and build more storage facilities. They support price. The top 10 per cent of rural households own 54 per emphasise food-processing and value additions. cent of the total arable land, while the bottom 50 per cent controls These proposals assume that the farmers will be less than 3 per cent of land (National Sample Survey-399). The able to pocket the profit earlier made by the ‘middle- future of this bottom half of the population is uncertain. men’ and capture a part of the value added upward An enormous number of peasants have small and fragmented in the supply chain—both untenable propositions. land holdings. The income generated and food produced from such Recently, the debate has shifted from productivity holdings can barely sustain their households for the whole year. to income generation. The Centre has announced The National Sample Survey 2014 records that an average farm- an ambitious plan to double farmers’ incomes by ing household earns about half its annual income from cultivation, 2022-23. Crop insurance is being promoted to cover 32 per cent from labour wages, 12 per cent from rearing livestock the production risk and the higher support price and and the rest from non-farm activities. They cultivate either staple state procurement to address the price risk. Pension crops determined by household consumption needs (predominant is offered to farmers above a certain age. in east India and parts of the north), or cash crops when they want The National Commission on Farmers, headed

36 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 state wants. The NITI Aayog has framed a land leasing policy to encourage smaller farmers to rent out their land to bigger farmers or firms, without the fear of los- ing it forever. This would consolidate smaller farms into larger land holdings, suitable for commercial farming. The disintegration of the peasant economy will release land and labour in the market. The consequent reorganisation of agriculture will set the trajectory of long-term rural transformation. Even if land holding is consolidated through sale and leasing, a new problem will inevitably emerge: how to employ the displaced peasants? Finding them employment or providing them with a steady source of income will not be easy. The Kisan Long March, held in Maharashtra in 2018, has demonstrated the farmers’ capacity to mobilise and exert populist pressure on the state. Therefore, this trajectory will not be steady and linear. However, the future of peasants is a multi-million-dollar business. There are various contract farming arrangements in the country; the successful ones predominantly in- volve bigger and well-organised farmers. The smaller peasants have been intractable for the corporate firms. To speculate what might happen to the peasants, we need to take note of two emerging trends. First, the central and state governments are trying to create vari- ous online agricultural markets, which focus on relay- ing information on commodity prices to the farmers and purportedly also link them with the sellers. Sec- by M.S. Swaminathan, incorporated most of these ond, a few agricultural start-ups have emerged, which policies and proposals in its recommendations to are trying to engage with the peasants through quasi-contract improve the condition of farmers. The commission farming arrangements, providing them with inputs, teaching suggested combining decentralised production by them new methods of cultivation, providing weather, soil and price peasants with centralised extension services, credit information and finances, etc. In tech start-up speak, they provide and procurement. Its recommendations are yet to be ‘agronomic intelligence’, use sensors and satellite images to monitor implemented. Agricultural policies are still populist, crops, deploy ‘big data technology’, etc. Both these interventions are sporadically responding to crises, and targeting only trying to create agricultural platforms: the government ones are major staple crops, such as wheat and paddy. The casting a wide net with a thin content; the private ones are more peasants remain vulnerable. intensive and integrated. These two approaches could lead either The 2011 Census reveals a slow disintegration to the emergence of state-facilitated farmer-entrepreneur or the of the peasant economy. It has reported that the ‘uberisation’ of peasants in the hands of private platform operators. number of farmers has fallen by 8.6 million and, The peasants will not completely disappear because they offer paradoxically, the number of agricultural labour- a substantial amount of unpaid labour to the economy and can cut ers has gone up substantially. down their consumption to survive. There are three This indicates that a section of broad possibilities: (i) peasants with good connectiv- farmers is getting driven out of ity to the urban centres will grow high-value crops, cultivation, who are giving up WHILE THE NUMBER OF such as vegetables, fruits and flowers (ii) those living their land and working as wage FARMERS HAS FALLEN in the urban periphery would sell their land if offered labourers on others’ land and in an attractive price and if they find alternative liveli- MGNREGA projects. This slow BY 8.6 MILLION, AS PER hoods, and (iii) peasants in relatively remote areas process of voluntary displace- would either join the agricultural platforms or survive ment of peasants and transfer of THE 2011 CENSUS, THE through diversification of their livelihood. n their land to presumably richer NUMBER OF AGRICULTURAL farmers or firms through market SWAGATO SARKAR teaches public policy at transactions is precisely what the LABOURERS HAS SHOT UP the O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat

Illustration by RAJ VERMA JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 37 COVER STORY CLIMATE CHANGE VISION 2020 BRACING FOR

BY NAVROZ K. DUBASH THE STORM To tackle climate change, not only does India need to pivot into a low-carbon future, it also needs to step up as a leader of climate-vulnerable countries

under the high tide line by 2050. Wildfires, fuelled by heat waves and unusually dry conditions, swept California, the Amazon, Australia and even the Arc- tic in 2019. As I write this, I hear from a friend in Australia that smoke from fires in Sydney is affect- ing Melbourne, 900 km away. 2018 saw the highest number of tropical cyclones of any year in the 21st century. The Food and Agriculture Organization reports a steady increase in the number of under- nourished people globally from 2015 to 2018, driven in part by climate variability and extreme weather. It was not supposed to be like this—industrialisa- tion and development were supposed to make us all more secure, but instead populations around the THE YEAR 2019 may be the one when climate change became world face growing insecurity as the climate rebels. a here-and-nowTT problem that no responsible country can ignore. In some parts of the world, notably Europe, young This is not, unfortunately, the same as saying that 2020 is the year people are rising up in an ‘Extinction Rebellion’ to when every country will finally address this challenge. It is in this express their alarm over this planetary emergency. gap between growing global realisation and continued national The global political reaction has been under- foot-dragging that India must locate its response to climate change. whelming. Global CO2 emissions continue to grow In 2019, a drumbeat of scientific reports told an ever grimmer at 2 per cent a year. At both the end of year climate story of climate impacts. A report for the UN Secretary Gen- talks and UN Secretary General’s Summit, coun- eral’s Climate Action Summit finds 2015-2019 on track to be the tries declined to enhance their emissions limitation warmest of any five-year period on record, at about 1.1°C above pledges (each country is required to submit a volun- historical levels. This seemingly modest increase is enough to start tary pledge under the Paris Agreement). The annual destabilising natural systems. For example, sea levels are rising, Emissions Gap Report produced by the UN shows both due to thermal expansion, and because the ice-sheets are the gap between what is required and what is being melting. The extent of Arctic sea ice in summers has declined 12 done is widening alarmingly, not shrinking. Key large per cent per year, and the two lowest levels of Antarctic summer countries, notably the United States, Brazil and Aus- sea ice were recorded in 2017 and 2018. tralia, are led by leaders publicly opposed to stimulat- What do these indications of a relentless and accelerating ing enhanced global action against climate change. warming trend mean for people around the world? Unfortunately, For the first two decades of the climate issue, it signals the relentless undermining of natural conditions for stable India treated this as someone else’s problem. It had human systems and ecosystems. For example, the acidity of our not contributed much to global emissions, certainly oceans has increased 26 per cent since the start of industrialisation when benchmarked against our large population and as the oceans absorb more CO2, affecting ocean life and fisheries. low past emissions. But we were anxious that our de- Sea level rise places many coastal areas at risk of storm surges; a velopment should not be burdened by efforts to limit highly-cited report showed that much of South Mumbai will be global emissions. This displacement of burden by rich

38 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 countries on to poor countries—the climate equity cities built around public transport, ride-sharing, efficient building debate—continues to be a concern. But also, we have design and sensible urban planning as well as resilience to climate become far more aware that India is a deeply vulner- impacts. Doing so will also help limit air pollution. Pivoting to a able country to climate impacts. As the papers in a low-carbon future will not be straightforward. Our broken electricity new edited volume India in a Warming Worldshow, distribution system may get thoroughly disrupted by small-scale re- India can expect to see declining crop yields, higher newable energy. For example, industrial users, who provide financial temperatures, coastal damage, disruption of cities stability to discoms, may chose to leave the system, with costs to and more violent weather events. Climate change the poorest. India has to plan for challenges such as these to ensure is likely to become a headwind to India’s progress. a low carbon future is both environmentally and socially beneficial. Despite having many other concerns, India can Second, it is increasingly clear that whatever the global efforts, no longer afford to ignore climate change, when it India will bear substantial impacts of climate change, for which the considers its energy, development and foreign poli- country has to prepare, in its own self-interest. This means rethink- cies. The decade of the 2020s will lay the ground- ing our coastal development so that infrastructure is resilient to work for how India manages the climate emergency. climate shocks, and coastal cities are protected. It means rethink- First, the world of energy is poised to be totally ing our agricultural system, to ensure it is resilient to droughts, transformed by the climate agenda. As countries unpredictable rainfall and pests. To do so may require rethinking gear up to address climate change, developing India’s our cropping choices, providing crop insurance and integrating economy in a low carbon direction is likely to be climate change planning with landmark programmes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guar- antee Act. These are but illustrative; in areas as diverse as urban planning, agriculture, fisheries and water and forest management, climate change will need to be mainstreamed into development considerations. Finally, climate change is now a diplomatic issue, and needs to be part of our strategic calculus. So far, India has successfully re-positioned itself as a relative leader, albeit among a class of global climate laggards. We have done this on the back of an aggressive solar energy policy and some clever initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance. But all these efforts are focused on changing diplomatic perceptions of India; they are not designed to enhance urgency or effective- ness of the global response. The focus is on ensuring there is continued ‘differentiation’, in the parlance of climate talks, between the North and the South. While important, in the coming decade, it is time for India to go beyond this approach and step up as a leader of climate-vulnerable countries, to demand ever more urgent action from all. The large countries of the rap- idly industrialising world, including China, Brazil and South Africa in addition to India, now have substantial global heft, with China the undoubted leader of the pack. With the US now firmly a laggard nation, this heft must be brought to bear on organising more effec- tive and coordinated global action on climate change. a competitive advantage. Will it cost more? Here, India faces many challenges in the decade ahead. Unfortu- the good news is that after decades of slow shifts, nately, despite all the other pressing problems, we no longer have renewable electricity is now cheaper than coal power the luxury of setting aside climate change to be dealt with later. in many parts of the world, including India. While Increasingly, there is no development pathway for India innocent of issues about renewable energy being intermittent— climate change. But internalising climate change is a stiff challenge. the sun does not always shine and the wind does not It will require our departments and ministries to work with each always blow—remain, there are ways around this, other. It will require strategic thinking and planning for the future. including through ever cheaper electricity storage And it will require working to cajole other countries into action. technologies. Moreover, because India is starting at a India will have to prepare for the climate headwind. n low level of development, it has not locked into a high carbon pathway. This could be of benefit as we de- NAVROZ K. DUBASH is a professor at the Centre for Policy Research, velop our cities. India has the possibility of exploring and editor of the recently published India in a Warming World

Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 39 COVER STORY DEM0GRAPHY VISION 2020

BY CHINMAY TUMBE FINALLY, NUMBER ONE By 2030, India will be the world’s most populous country with most of its population still in rural areas

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) with lower birth rates and, consequently, lower population growth rates. To see how dramatic this difference is, the median age in southern Indian, around 30, is nearly 10 years higher than in the poorer north. One immediate consequence of this demographic (and economic) difference is the surging north-south migration flows recently detected by demographers. Wage differentials are now large enough to overcome THE NEXT DECADE FOR INDIA will be momentous in terms of de- linguistic barriers as overheard in conversations of mography. If in 2000,TT we celebrated the birth of the billionth Indian, Bihari workers speaking fluent Tamil on southern we will, in the next decade, celebrate the birth of a child who will plantation fields. In the coming decade, these migra- help India overtake China as the world’s most populous country. The tion f lows will intensify and the growing clamour for land of the Kama Sutra will finally reclaim bragging rights from its job protectionism against inter-state migrants must neighbour and that favourite phrase, ‘world’s largest democracy’ will be kept in check for India to prosper. be replaced by a simpler one—“world’s largest country”. North-south migration flows, however, will Yes, India has managed to add a billion human beings on our not be substantial enough to alter the fundamental planet since 1947 and, by most projections, is slated to stabilise demographic difference in fertility rates that have its population only after several more decades, reaching upwards and continue to alter the regional balance of India’s of 1.5 billion. This growth has come on the back of rapid mortal- population. This has great political significance be- ity decline and a slow decline in fertility with substantial regional cause the current freeze on Lok Sabha regional seats variations. The south is now demographically more advanced than based on the 1971 Census is up for revision in 2026. the poorer northern hinterland (Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, This freeze is important so that states which do well

40 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020

NRC will be dismissed. India’s immigration rate is likely to fall further as neighbouring countries continue to diversify their foreign destinations away from India. Barring potential climate-induced mass migrations, Ban- gladeshi emigration to India is likely to fall further as the country’s prospects improve. Depending on India’s economic situation, the small trickle of European and American professional workers may intensify. And barring a visa-backlash, India’s emigration to Europe, Canada, Australia, US and the Gulf is likely to continue, pushing the annual remittance f low to India to a figure upwards of $100 billion. India will continue to urbanise slowly in the next decade, as it has in the past several decades, despite rising internal migration, because of a fundamental demographic divergence between natural growth rates in rural and urban areas. In 2030, India will be one of the few large countries in the world with the bulk of its population still liv- ing in rural areas. Fertility rates in urban areas are plummeting as compared to in rural areas, especially in the poorer rural northern hinterland. Unless there is substantial investment in education, health and raising agricultural productivity in the poorer north, its pace of urbanisation will continue to be slow than the south because of the rural-urban demographic divergence. And yet, the enormity of India’s population means that even with a relatively low urbanisa- tion rate, urban population will exceed by half a billion people, more than the entire population of the US. This should ideally push urban reforms to the top of the political agenda, especially reforms in urban governance, granting more autonomy to city governments in financ- ing and functioning. The 2011 Census revealed that the urban-urban DEMOGRAPHIC migration was as significant in scale as rural-urban migration and this trend is likely to continue as people seek out new opportunities FEDERALISM WILL and variety in urban areas. India’s largest 10 cities will change little REPLACE FISCAL in terms of ranking, but Bengaluru will continue to grow rapidly through migration and Kolkata will slide down the pecking order FEDERALISM AS THE KEY on account of its exceptionally low fertility. Demographers will also be keenly tracking India’s sex ratios. ISSUE IN THE NEXT DECADE Will the phenomenon of ‘missing women’ related with gender dis- crimination improve or deteriorate further? Will the phenomenon of ‘missing men’ related with mass male outmigration continue or will in controlling population growth are not penalised migrations be more gender-balanced? The trends are not very clear with lower representation in Parliament. In 2001, here and one can only hope for a more gender-balanced demography. political parties across the spectrum voted to extend On life expectancy, we can be more certain. Seventy will soon be the freeze by 25 years. Such pragmatism and sagac- the new normal life expectancy rate at birth and women will continue ity will hopefully prevail again despite tremendous to outlive men, on average. Millennials may have to share attention conflict of interests across parties. Revoking the space with the aged, whose stock is set to soar. While great advances seat-freeze would lead to a complete breakdown in have been made in curbing mortality and hunger, India continues federal relations. If fiscal federalism was a key bone to stare at a malnutrition crisis. As a Sachin Tendulkar fan, one can of contention in the past decade, demographic feder- claim that height does not matter, but empirically, heights tend to in- alism will be an important issue in the next decade. crease as average nutrition levels rise in societies. That Indian heights Another issue of high relevance is the CAA-NRC- are barely increasing is a cause for concern. And at the other end of NPR debate. Its eventual outcome could influence the spectrum, obesity is gaining traction as a national health issue. the collection of 2021 Census statistics. In the past, In 2030, India will be the most populous country of the world, the Civil Disobedience Movement has affected the that will still be mostly rural, with people living longer. And yet, Census of 1931, the Non-Cooperation and war, the managing the two distinct demographic regimes within, one closer Census of 1941, and disturbances left out Assam to Europe and the other closer to sub-Saharan Africa, will require and Jammu and Kashmir in the Censuses of 1981 political pragmatism lest demography tear apart India’s destiny. n and 1991 respectively. Hopefully, the Census of 2021 will be conducted regularly and plans for an all-India CHINMAY TUMBE is the author of India Moving: A History of Migration

Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 41 COVER STORY HEALTHCARE VISION 2020 THE BILL

BY K. SRINATH REDDY OF HEALTH India’s health infrastructure needs to evolve significantly to provide robust service delivery, from primary care to hospitalisation

wavering policymaker attention and weaker pro- gramme financing may reignite the flame among high-risk population groups and the unwary young who emerged after the panic of the pandemic abated. Safe drinking water, improved sanitation, nutrition, wider coverage of childhood immunisation, vector control, sharper disease surveillance, better case and contact detection techniques, effective treat- ments and follow-up care are needed to provide a broadband response to infectious diseases. The toll of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), already the leading cause of death, will mount fur- ther, extracting a high cost of mid-life mortality and disability through cardiovascular diseases, cancers, AS INDIA ENTERS THE DECISIVE DECADE for achieving diabetes, respiratory and kidney diseases. The 2030 the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs, adopted by all UN target of one-third reduction in premature mortality member-states in 2015) by 2030, the health goal (SDG3) poses due to NCDs poses a tough challenge. Mental health the biggest challenge. Envisioning health and wellbeing for all at disorders will emerge from the shadows of stigma- all ages, it sets several targets which encompass all domains of induced suppression and denial to demand attention health. What must India do to achieve these? from health and social care systems. Maternal and child health remains a continued commitment, While health systems have to gear up for pro- carried over from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We longed chronic care and technology-intensive acute are on track to reach the targets for maternal mortality ratio (70 per care, prevention has to be the principal response 100,000 live births) and under-5 mortality rate (25 per 1,000 live to these diseases of maladapted modernity. Food births) but need stronger health system performance to reach the and agricultural systems that promote balanced neonatal mortality target (12 per 1,000 live births). High levels of diets and urban design which facilitates safe and undernutrition in women and children (low body weight, anaemia pleasurable physical activity must promote health, and child stunting) need to be redressed through multi-sectoral while the harm of tobacco, alcohol and unhealthy action on several social determinants (poverty alleviation, educa- foods must be curbed through effective regulation. tion, livelihoods and gender equity) and the promotion of better Air pollution has to be reduced and road safety im- nutrition at home, Anganwadi centres and school. Child and adult proved. Mental health has to be promoted through nutrition programmes need to stem the rising tide of excess weight resilience-building and peer support, even as therapy and obesity which threaten to deluge India with chronic diseases. has to shift to community-based recuperation from Infectious diseases will be around for a while. Our target of institutional incarceration. And as climate change eliminating tuberculosis by 2025 will require a gigantic leap in unleashes a horde of adverse effects, we need to build health system performance in case detection, treatment coverage climate-resilient health services and climate-smart and adherence, while battling drug resistance. Malaria threatens agriculture to provide health and nutrition security. to gain ground, along with dengue and chikanguniya, as climate Health service delivery is constrained by work- change creates warmer temperatures for mosquito vectors to thrive force deficits in numbers and skills. Primary health- and spread farther. HIV-AIDS has seen an effective response, but care has not delivered assured access or dependable

42 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 quality of care in many rural regions while urban primary healthcare is a late-starter, with scant resources to impart momentum. Though the National Rural Health Mission did provide impetus to some elements of pri- mary care, it remained an incomplete pack- age. Comprehensive primary healthcare, a component of Ayushman Bharat launched in 2018, promises to provide a wider array of basic services through close-to-home health and wellness centres and aims to overcome the shortage of doctors by deploying skilled non-physician mid-level healthcare providers. Over the next decade, India has to invest sub- stantially in expanding the workforce across all categories, from community health work- ers to specialist doctors. Public health profes- sionals and practitioners must emerge from multi-disciplinary educational programmes to strengthen design and delivery of health programmes through designated central and state public health cadres. Fortunately, technology will aid India in overcoming some of these challenges. Point of care diagnostic devices and de- cision support systems housed in handheld tablets have en- PUBLIC HEALTH REQUIRES abled auxiliary nurse mid- wives in Himachal Pradesh MUCH HIGHER PUBLIC to effectively manage diabetes FINANCING THAN THE care can see a flooding of advanced care institutions and hypertension. Truenat, a by persons who do not need hospitalisation. locally developed molecular ABYSMALLY LOW 1-1.2 PER Over the next decade, India must develop a strong assay, is likely to make the di- primary healthcare system connected to well-function- agnosis of tuberculosis easier CENT OF GDP THAT IT ing district hospitals and raise the capacity of medical and more accurate. Drugs and HAS RECEIVED FOR college hospitals, while engaging the private sector to vaccines, already a strength of participate in the delivery of health services for universal Indian manufacture, will gain DECADES NOW coverage. A single-payer system must evolve to cover all a greater share of the global Indians, ensure portability across the country and pro- market. A rush of innovation and investment will vide protection against debilitating healthcare expenditure. These make affordable health technologies the hallmark measures require much higher public financing than the abysmally of Indian entrepreneurship. low 1-1.2 per cent of GDP, stagnant over several decades. Central and Yet, the positives of technological innovation state budgets must aim to achieve a trebling of allocations to health and workforce expansion will be effaced if health- by the end of the decade, with two-thirds allocated to primary care. care remains unaffordable to many Indians. Large We need to step up health research, developing artificial intel- national surveys report that 7 per cent of Indians ligence systems and algorithms based on the huge expanse of Indian experience healthcare-related impoverishment. data to make them nationally relevant. The ambit of research must A flurry of government-funded health-financing spread from molecular biology to social determinants of health, to schemes sprouted in the past two decades. The predict and prevent diseases at individual and population levels. Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana is replacing Health policy and systems research, long neglected, must find a many of them. Ambitious in scale (500 million In- prominent place alongside biomedical and clinical research. Knowl- dians) and coverage (Rs 500,000 per family an- edge so generated must be translated into effective implementation, nually), it will enable many low-income families to with impact and equity reflected by improving health indicators. n access hospitalised medical care. However, supply- side gaps need to be bridged in several parts of In- K. SRINATH REDDY is the president of the Public Health dia. Worryingly, a weak primary healthcare system Foundation of India and the author of Make in India: Reaching a and poor coverage of costs incurred in outpatient Billion Plus. Views expressed are personal

JANUARY 13, 2020 INDIA TODAY 43 Illustration by SIDDHANT JUMDE COVER STORY HINDU NATIONALISM VISION 2020 THE PAST

BY BANU SUBRAMANIAM ASFUTURE Hindutva mixes science and religion to concoct potent myths of archaic modernity

damentalisms, Hindu nationalism brings together a melding of science and religion, the ancient and the modern, the past and the present into a pow- erful brand of nationalism, a vision of India as an ‘archaic modernity’. Secularism has been reimagined as tolerance, and democracy as majoritarianism. Rather than characterise Hinduism as ancient, non- modern, or traditional, Hindu nationalists have em- braced capitalism, western science and technology as key elements of a modern, Hindu nation. The porous boundary between modern Hindu- ism and science is striking. The Hindu national- ists’ vision of a religionised science and a scientised THE WORLDTTOVER, we are witnessing a rise in ethnic nation- religion is grounded not only in a mythological alism, rampant xenophobia that targets refugees and long-term corpus, but also in a ‘mythoscientific’ one. Much immigrants, chasmic inequality between the rich and the poor has been written about Prime Minister Narendra and a powerful majority that has been rendered into a wounded Modi claiming that the existence of Lord Gane- majority that claims victimhood. These developments have come sha suggests the existence of plastic surgery at that alongside dizzying volleys of contrasting and conflicting claims— time! Perhaps he was being humorous or ironic. But news, fake news, counternews. Along with these, Ganesha is an elephant-headed we have seen a blurringof the boundaries between god; he is divine. Modi could truth and falsity, real and fake and science and have claimed that a god could, pseudoscience. In theguise of challenging science HINDU NATIONALISM through divine powers, connect and the elite and powerful, ‘fake news’ has been the bodies of an elephant and a mobilised by authoritarianleaders to claim unlim- BRINGS TOGETHER A human, or that a god does not ited political powers. Every day, we seem to hear MELDING OF SCIENCE AND need circulating blood or a cen- politicians use the famous lines from the Marx tral nervous system! Rather, he Brothers’ movie Duck Soup, “Well, who ya gonna RELIGION, THE PAST AND invented a plastic surgeon to per- believe? Me or your owneyes?” form an operation to connect the Yet, something more is afoot in recent Indian THE PRESENT INTO A VISION two interspecies body parts. This politics. Science and religion,always potent forces OF INDIA AS AN ‘ARCHAIC is precisely the imagination of within Indian politics and culture, have been re- Hindu nationalism that I find mobilised for a modern India. Unlike other fun- MODERNITY’ fascinating and significant—sci-

44 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

COVER STORY HINDU NATIONALISM VISION 2020

ence and technology andtheir practitioners mediate mythological protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act and divine worlds. Even gods need doctors! (CAA). It is heartening to those of us who mourn the Indeed, mythological stories have been offered as conclusive ‘idea’ of India as a multi-religious, plural, inclusive evidence to claim a pre-Vedic existence for an astonishing array and secular society. After five years of uncontested of sciences and discoveries—godsin f lying chariots as evidence of policies and politics, there seems to be an upswell- ancient Hindu civilisation’s flying machines, Karna as evidence ing of national anger. Yet, the country elected Hin- of ancient genetic technologies,Sanjaya’s accounts in the Mahab- du nationalists to power, not once but twice, and the harata as evidence of ancient internet and satellite technology. second time even more convincingly. The BJP won Similarly, it was well publicised that before the launch of the with an agenda and a first term firmly grounded first Mars Orbiter, Mangalyaan, the head of ISRO offered puja in the ideologies of Hindu nationalism. While the at the Tirupati temple. Repeatedly, we see the easy comfort with rapidity of recent news may be surprising—abro- which science and religionblend together in the gating provisions of Article 370 Indian context. and removing Article 35A from It is critical to recognise that these are not the Constitution, the Supreme fringe political ideas, but ideologies that are INDIA’S FUTURE IS Court verdict on Ayodhya and the thoroughly revamping the scientific infrastruc- EMERGING THROUGH A passing of the CAA—the politics ture in India. From papers on Vedic science as behind it was clearly in view be- modern science in the Indian Science Congress REIMAGINATION OF INDIA’S fore the elections. How deep and to recent government initiativesoffering funding enduring the current moment will for the ‘scientific validation for ancient knowl- FANTASTICAL ‘HINDU’ be remains to be seen. edge’, we see a repeatedfocus on reclaiming Ve- PAST—WE ARE QUITE As I write this, we appear at dic science as modern science. This seems less a critical crossroad. The success about producing new and innovative science for LITERALLY MARCHING BACK and rejuvenation of Hindutva a future India, but rather on appropriating the seem unmistakable. There are vast power of modern science as India’s ancient INTO THE FUTURE calls for purity—purity of India Vedic Science. These claims belie a deep-seated as a Hindu rashtra fanned by the belief in the lost greatness of an ancient India, a greatness that the gentle and righteous winds of a Rama rajya and the movement means to reclaim. Science and religion here are not op- flows of the river Saraswati. Despite recent events, positional forces but syncretic collaborators. I have been struck by the deep resonance of Hindu nationalism and the potency of the ideology of Hin- o fabulate is to create fables or stories filled with dutva amongst friends and family. It has been a fantasy. Gods, mythologies and historical memo- lesson and a reminder of the divisive and communal ries collude at our present time to recreate for us a politics that have always lurked below—the ghosts fabulous Hindu past and future. Indeed, our ‘pres- of empire, afterlives of colonialism, the perverse ent’ is a critical political moment where religious politics of sectarianism and the power of suprema- TT nationalists are trying to suture their visions of the cist movements such as casteism, elitism, patriar- ‘past’ and ‘future’. It may seem anachronistic, confused and ahis- chy and classism that fan majoritarianism while torical, but it has proved to be a powerful ideology that has re- scapegoating minorities. The strong and violent newed Hindu nationalism as a potent force in Indian politics. police response to recent events is sobering. Hindu I find myself in a unique position. I am trained as a biologist nationalists have completely embraced modern and was drawn to the history and philosophy of science in part technology. India now leads the world in digital au- through postcolonial scholarship—work that traced the colonial thoritarianism. We think we know our neighbours, and patriarchal roots of modern science and, indeed, all academic, our relatives, indeed, ourselves. The past decade disciplinary and knowledge systems. Postcolonial scholarship has has been a profound reminder of how little we do. systematically critiqued claims of the superiority of the ‘western’ It would seem that 72 years after Independence, we knowledge edifice—both because it has appropriated knowledge face a new tryst with destiny. The future of India is from across the world through colonialism and because it has emerging through a reinvigorated imagination of systematically made invisible the vast histories of conquered India’s fabulous and fantastical ‘Hindu’ past—we civilisations. Indeed, the histories of South Asia and religious are quite literally marching back into the future. n traditions in the region have so much to offer us. Yet the solution cannot be that the fabulations of empire are replaced with those BANU SUBRAMANIAM is a professor of women, of Hindutva! We need to exorcise the colonial roots of both to gender and sexuality studies at the University of reimagine new futures. Hindutva is not Hinduism. Massachusetts, Amherst, and the author of Holy I have been revising this essay in the midst of the recent Science: The Biopolitics of Hindu Nationalism

46 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020

SMART MONEY TAX SAVING

SAVING TAX THROUGH DEDUCTIONS Both investments and expenses could be eligible for tax deductions. A look at the options available

Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

t’s the time of year when dependants can be claimed metros); or rent paid less 10 Leave travel: This allows people scramble to final- under Section 80(C), up to per cent of basic pay. taxpayers to claim travel Iise their tax-saving dec- a limit of Rs 1.5 lakh. Only expenses for their fam- larations and investments. tuition fees paid to govern- Home loans: For home ily—including two children But there’s no need to jump ment-recognised universi- loans, taxpayers can claim (post 1998), siblings and into whatever investments ties, colleges, schools or up to Rs 1.5 lakh of the parents—as an exemption. are immediately avail- other institutions, for a principal amount repaid, However, only air, rail or able—even at this point, a full-time course, can be under Section 80(C). It is bus fares can be claimed, systematic approach is best. claimed. Related expenses, also important to note that and for the shortest possible And it can be wise to first like transportation, food both HRA and home loan route. This can only be assess the expenses one has and others, are not covered. deductions can be claimed, claimed for two journeys already incurred to see if Those who have taken edu- as long as the requirements in a block of four calendar they allow for tax-savings. cation loans for themselves, for both are fulfilled. years. The current block is their spouses or their chil- “Investing in a home is a 2018-2021. You can claim  EXPENSES dren can claim deductions better option while tax two journeys in the same WITH BENEFITS on the interest paid under planning, as the govern- year, or even choose to carry Many common expenses Section 80(E), with no limit ment has made efforts to forward the LTA exemption fall under different sections on the amount of inter- offer higher tax deductions into the first year of the suc- of the Income Tax Act and est that can be claimed as [in this category], especial- ceeding block. allow for tax-savings. These deduction for the first eight ly for affordable housing. include tuition fees, leave, years of the loan. We have observed, though, Medical expenses: Expens- travel and house rent allow- that people are not taking es on certain medical treat- ances, home loan payments, House rent: Skyrocketing the benefit of investing in ments for yourself, your dependant expenses, as well real estate prices might home loans, where deduc- spouse or your dependants as life and health insurance have kept dream homes out tions are available on both can be claimed as deduc- premiums. Those aside, of reach for many Indians, interest and the principal tions, up to Rs 40,000-Rs investments in provident but renting does have a amount. Also, the apprecia- 80,000 (based on the age of funds, certain fixed depos- silver lining—the tax sav- tion of a property amounts the dependant), under Sec- its and mutual funds, unit- ings permitted on house to negligible tax as inflation tion 80(DDB). If the person linked insurance plans and rent allowances. Taxpay- goes in favour of inves- being treated is over 40 per pension systems also allow ers can claim the lowest of tors—they can re-invest the cent disabled, then expenses for tax-saving. the following for deduc- resale amount to claim tax up to Rs 75,000 can be tions—the actual house rent deduction,” explains Sudhir claimed, with Rs 1.25 lakh Education: Expenses allowance; 40 per cent of Kaushik, co-founder of allowed for those with dis- incurred for education for basic salary (50 per cent in taxspanner.com. abilities over 80 per cent.

48 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 SMART MONEY TAX SAVING

Insurance: Both life and investment will have to health insurance premiums EXPENSES AND be locked for three years, paid during the year can investing in ELSS funds be claimed as deductions INVESTMENTS TO SAVE TAX through SIPs means your against taxes. Upto Rs 1.5 MODE OF EXPENSE/ MAXIMUM DEDUCTION investment will take longer lakh can be claimed against INVESTMENT PERMITTED to get freed up.” life insurance premiums Children’s tuition fee `1.5 lakh under Section 80(C), while (Sec 80(C)) NPS: The National Pen- health insurance premiums sion System is a long-term Education loan (Sec 80(E)) No limit up to Rs 25,000 (or Rs tax-saving tool for both the 50,000 for senior citizens) House rent allowance Linked to basic salary employed and the self- can be claimed under Sec- and actuals employed. Here, Rs 50,000 tion 80(D). Those paying Home loan principal (Sec 80(C)) `1.5 lakh of additional deduction for health insurance premiums investments is allowed over Leave travel allowance Linked to basic salary for dependant parents can and actuals and above those permitted claim between Rs 75,000 under Section 80(C). One to Rs 1 lakh based on the Medical expenses of dependants `40,000 to `80,000; can invest up to a maximum (Sec 80(DDB)) linked to age age. Note that these include of 75 per cent in equity, with charges paid for health Medical expenses of disabled `1.25 lakh (Linked to that percentage reducing as checkups up to Rs 5,000. dependants ( for specific treat- extent of disability) the age increases. “People Senior citizens above 80 ments) (Sec 80(DD)) aren’t [investing in] the years can claim medical Life insurance premium `1.5 lakh NPS due to low awareness. expenses upto Rs 50,000. One could opt for this tax- Medical insurance premium (par- `1 lakh (Linked to age) ents and family, Sec 80(D)) saving investment route, as  INVESTMENTS fund management charges You can also save on taxes NSC, PPF, SCSS, SSY, 5-year FD, `1.5 lakh are low,” suggests Kaushik. ELSS, ULIP (Sec 80(C)) by investing in medium- term and long-term fixed ULIPs: When it comes to income products. With a ULIPs, only those who are five-year lock-in period, IT IS WISE TO FIRST ASSESS THE willing to consider a longer you can invest in the senior EXPENSES ONE HAS ALREADY time horizon—10 years or citizen savings scheme, the INCURRED IN A YEAR TO SEE IF more—and are willing to national savings certificate THEY ALLOW FOR TAX-SAVINGS invest a bulky sum at one and tax-saver fixed deposits go, or pay premium each for the debt part of your year, should opt for them as investment portfolio. Senior a pie of your investments is citizens can also claim sure while saving taxes. that allocating investments doled out as commissions exemption from paying There are, broadly speak- to equity has also proved to during the initial five years. TDS if their total annual ing, three investment op- be a wealth-builder in the Also, remember not income is below Rs 5 lakh; tions—equity linked savings long run. to panic if you have failed in case of higher income, schemes (ELSS), offered by Though the systematic to declare any of your TDS is exempted only if the mutual funds; unit-linked investment plan (SIP) route investment details to your interest earned on fixed insurance plans (ULIPs) is the best way to invest in a employer. “If you have made deposit is Rs 50,000 or from life insurers and the regular mutual fund, in this investments in tax-saving less. For a long-term fixed National Pension System case, the strategy should instruments in a given income investment with tax (NPS) by the Pension Fund be altered. Kartik Jhaveri, financial year, you will be saving, one could choose the Regulatory Authority. director of wealth manage- able to claim tax deductions public provident fund or the ment at Transcend Consult- that year. If additional tax Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana ELSS: These schemes have ing (India), suggests that has been deducted, that can (if one meets the applicabil- the shortest lock-in pe- investments in tax-saving be reclaimed as a refund,” ity critera). You could also riod—three years—among mutual funds should be says Ajay Sehgal, director at choose to give your portfolio all tax-saving instruments. done “in one go, or at best Allegiance Financial. n an edge with equity expo- It is also important to note in two tranches. Since each —Khyati Dharamsi SMART MONEY MUTUAL FUNDS

utual Fund Sahi once in six months to see if Hai. The popular the fund is being managed Mcampaign along as per the mandate and if it with other awareness activi- is delivering performance ties drew millions of first- in line with the index and time investors into mutual category for the level of risk funds over the past couple taken,” he says. of years. Just this financial year, 763,700 lakh new SIP  EXIT WHEN THERE IS accounts were registered till WHEN TO EXIT MAJOR CHANGE November, and this is when If the fund house the performance of the do- YOUR MF managing your fund has mestic market is nothing to gone through big transfor- write home about, with eight INVESTMENT mations, such as change in of every 10 stocks on the BSE the investment rationale/ offering negative returns. While investing is a crucial first step theme or exit of a key fund While investing is impor- towards financial freedom, more crucial manager, consider shifting tant and a crucial first step still is to sell your investments on profits your money to another towards financial freedom, MF. You must take note even more crucial is to sell part,” says certified financial  WHEN TO REBAL- of your risk appetite too. your investments on profits. planner Pankaaj Maalda, ANCE AND EXIT Due to some unforeseen When is the right time to sell adding that if you’re into It is often said that MF in- circumstances, if you need to your MF holdings, then? pure equity fund, you should vestors should avoid check- reduce your equity exposure, Many investors redeem exit three years before ing their portfolio frequent- exit and shift money into their fund units when their reaching your goal and shift ly. However, it doesn’t mean safer financial instruments. portfolio turns negative the money into a safer debt that you continue with Similarly, if your equity while other MF products are instrument. A prudent way SIPs recklessly. “You should portfolio has expanded rap- performing well. “Various is to start an automated STP review your portfolio once idly, you should shift some MF categories perform dif- (systematic transfer plan) to in a quarter and rebalance investments into debt to ferently at different times. transfer the money from the it once in a year, if required, rebalance your portfolio. So, don't obsess over re- MF to a liquid fund. “If your as per your goals. That way turns,” says Suresh Sadago- target is 12 per cent and you you will know if you are in-  WHAT TO DO IN pan, founder, Ladder7 are sitting on 15 per cent vested in a right asset class CURRENT SCENARIO? Financial Advisories. “Sell profits, book profits instead or scheme or not.” Even as the benchmark when the fund comes into of greedily expecting more,” Sadagopan agrees. “One Sensex and Nifty have been the long-term capital gains he says. should review the portfolio hitting fresh highs, only zone. For equity funds, it is select funds having exposure beyond 12 months and for in bluechip stocks and select debt funds, beyond 36. One industry segments have should also take note of the WHEN TO SELL been performing well. “Most time period within which 1 4 funds are giving worse exit loads are charged.” returns than fixed deposits, If your are closer to your Shift in fund’s investment but it doesn’t mean that financial goals rationale  EXIT WHEN YOU you should exit. It is time to REACH YOUR GOAL 2 5 invest more,” says Maalda, Experts say, one should have If the fund consistently To rebalance the portfolio adding that when stocks are an idea of how much returns underperforms the bench- between equity and debt low, you buy at low cost and they want and in what time- mark for 3-4 quarters when the rally returns, your frame right at the time of 6 gains are higher. So if you starting the investments. “If 3 After the fund comes have to exit, it should be on a you’re closer to your goals, Change in your risk into the long-term capital sound basis, not merely be- quit keeping in mind the appetite gains zone cause the stocks are down. n exit load and the taxation —Aprajita Sharma

50 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY ART SHOWS LET THE IN 2020 GAMES BEGIN PG 53 PG 55

COMING TO A Q&A WITH SCREEN NEAR YOU... ZOYA AKHTAR PG 56 PG 58

DOCTOR OF ART Sudhir Patwardhan at the NGMA in Mumbai MILIND SHELTE MILIND LEISURE 2020

was passed is condemnable,” he says. spokesperson for the working class in He is soft-spoken. You have to lean in the 1970s: “I justified this by arguing to hear him. “But the violence in Jamia, that because it was not possible for the arrests of intellectuals for speaking them to have their own voice in the their mind and also what’s happening in cultural arena, they wouldn’t have rep- Kashmir—one is absolutely against this resentation and would need somebody kind of injustice.” Though a committed like me to speak on their behalf.” Over Leftist since his youth, Patwardhan, the years, however, he saw himself slip- strangely, resists the idea of public ping into the role of a participant. protest. He lets his art do the talking. “I Inspired by Fernand Léger, Pat- stand with the common man and those wardhan pioneered a style of painting who are suffering,” reiterates the artist, that brought viewers closer to urban who turned 70 in January 2019. suffering. He considers Léger’s ‘The Our society’s margins have been his City’ a personal touchstone. Like the S life’s great subject, as Walking Through Cubist master, Patwardhan’s art never SOUTH MUMBAI’s artsy cafes aren’t Soul City, a retrospective at the NGMA, fails to capture city life in all its ebb for Sudhir Patwardhan. He prefers the demonstrates. The show covers his stag- and flow. The Mumbai that Patward- modest canteen at the National Gallery gering output over nearly five han depicts is of construc- of Modern Art (NGMA) for his evening decades. Across five floors, tion workers, railway cuppa. Outside, labourers busy them- around 230 paintings and This ret- commuters, tea drinkers, selves with roadwork. You can smell his drawings celebrate Patward- rospective walkers and hawkers. milky brew, but also their toil. This is han’s long career. His most covers the In the eponymous precisely the kind of Mumbai Patwar- iconic works, which often artist’s stag- ‘Lower Parel’ (2001), for dhan has devoted his life to capturing. feature Mumbai as the pro- gering out- instance, a corporate tower We meet a day after the city, his tagonist, entwine the narra- put over rises presciently, preparing beloved muse, has witnessed massive tive style of the Baroda school nearly five to take over the mills. Today, demonstrations. The Citizens (Amend- with Marxist philosophy. decades the mills that once gave ment) Bill has just been passed. “The Patwardhan admits he central Bombay much of way in which such an important bill was once a self-proclaimed its working-class charac-

A LIFE OF ART (Clockwise from top) ‘Lower Parel’ (2001), ‘Riot’ (1996) and ‘Killing’ (2007). Walking Through Soul City is on display at the NGMA, Mumbai, until February 12 ter have long since turned into swanky ART to kick off malls and residential complexes. Looking Art shows back, Bombay of the 1970s was more the new year with creatively and politically charged, and as a 2020 newcomer, Patwardhan experienced this with first hand. It was the pulsating Bombay of Narayan Surve, Bhupen Khakhar and Kiran Nagarkar—into this milieu, the RECENT LIFE artist brought his own tentative curiosity Chemould Prescott Road, and understanding of an ‘outsider’. Mumbai Born in Pune in 1949, when he first January 9-February 13 landed in Mumbai as a medical student N.S. Harsha looks at in 1973, the scale of the city scared him. agrarian life and its challenges. As the artist explains, “This But not only did Mumbai open itself up show reflects many moments to him, it gave him inspiration to pick up of recent life—human events, the brush too. He says, “I used to take the larger existential queries— train back home, going up and down the and its relation with the idea of time” bridge, being a part of the crowd. I still love walking around and what I see, hear PERMEATED ABSENCE and smell feeds into my art.” Nature Morte, New Delhi One of the devices he employs in his January 11-February 8 quest for urban realism is that of multiple Dhruvi Acharya’s solo explores the artist’s experience of dealing perspective. Still an exponent of figurative with the death of loved ones. As she art, he explains, “I’m interested in the puts it, “Living with death is an odd relationship between figure and space. So, experience.” The show also explores whether the figure exists in a restaurant, hot-button issues of feminism, on the street or in a social group, it’s about particularly the female body how the space affects people and how people shape the space. As for multiple perspective, it’s simply my interaction INDIA ART FAIR with the city. At any given point in a New Delhi January 30-February 2 busy place like Mumbai, you see so many Catch up on the art world, storylines simultaneously.” Patwardhan, both established and emerging though, is also a critic. He has never shied talents in a classic celebration away from depicting communal violence. of Indian diversity. This annual art fair is a perfect platform for ‘Accident on May Day’ (1981), ‘Riot’ (1996) those interested in modern and and ‘Killing’ (2007) all directly challenge contemporary art Mumbai’s prized ‘cosmopolitanism’. In the past decade, his oeuvre has TERRANIUM NUNCIUS undergone a seminal shift. Retirement Famous Studio, Mumbai from his job in 2005 and the birth of a January 10-January 21 grandchild led him to spend more time Jitish Kallat’s solo showing esents two new major works, a photographic- at home and reflect on life and mortal- d installation titled ‘Covering Letter (terranum ity—giving rise to what he calls his Home DEODHAR MANDAR cius)’ and ‘Ellipsis’, his largest painting to date. as Studio series. These are disquieting With the former, Kallat returns to his abiding scenes of family life and meditations on rest in epistolary literature as well as science, art itself. Psychologically complex and space and extra-terrestrial life strikingly cinematic, they all hint at the artist’s lens turning inward. “When you’re 70,” he says, “you are also thinking about the decline of the body. I’m a doctor, so the awareness JUDGMENT IN THE TRIAL is heightened.” Does he feel nostalgia, OF AKBAR PADAMSEE seeing a lifetime’s worth of work at the Priyasri Art Gallery, Mumbai NGMA? “I am quite a detached viewer,” January 9-January 30 A rare chance at retracing the steps he shrugs off the question, laughing.n of 91-year-old master Akbar Padamsee’s -Shaikh Ayaz infamous trial from the 1950s. Recreating an erstwhile ambience, the exhibition ill feature a video projection of two paintings from the iconic Lovers series, being exhibited for the first time in decades LEISURE 2020 POISED FOR THE ATHLETES TO WATCH OUT FOR

1. CHRISTIAN 4. SMRITI (647) at the ICC Cricket win silver at the World berth at the Olym- COLEMAN MANDHANA World Cup. With the Boxing Championships pics with a World The American was The only Indian crick- T20 World Cup in his in September. Come Championship bro- best known for his eter to make it to ICC’s own backyard, trust February, he will look to nze in September. drug testing violations ODI and T20I teams Warner to be ruthless seal an Olympic berth The grappler showed until he silenced crit- this year, Mandhana come October. at the qualifiers and great promise this ics with the fastest has enjoyed an out- make his mark among year and is a likely 100 metres this year standing season. At the 6. MANU BHAKER the big boys in Tokyo. candidate for a podi- in Doha. A gold for Women’s T20 World Cup She signed off the um finish in Tokyo. Coleman at the Tokyo in February, all eyes will season with gold in the 8. BAJRANG PUNIA Olympics will certain- be on her to lead the women’s 10m air pistol After picking up gold 9. NEERAJ ly be the highlight of side to their first final at the World Cup Finals at the Commonwealth CHOPRA the post-Bolt era. appearance. in November. Though and Asian Games in Not much has been still in her teens, 2018, Punia booked his written about Chopra 2. RAFAEL NADAL 5. DAVID WARNER Bhaker will be a force after an elbow sur- A season that started A ball-tampering scan- to reckon with at the gery in March ruled with a niggling ankle dal kept the Australian Tokyo Olympics. him out of all major injury ended with out for a year, but once javelin competi- two Grand Slams and back at the crease in 7. AMIT PANGHAL tions this year. A his fifth year-ending March, he finished the He became the first lot, though, will be as the World No. 1. Indian Premier League male Indian boxer to Expect more of the season with the most same devastating runs (692) and was the form at the Australian second-highest scorer Open in January, as he trains his eyes 3 on Roger Federer’s record of 20 Grand Slams.

3. VIRAT KOHLI 2 The records have tumbled after the Indian skipper’s scin- tillating performance across all formats this year. After a semi-final exit at the last edition, Kohli t batsman will be ke to India’s fortunes the T20 World Cup October. 5

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6 LET THE GAMES BEGIN PODIUM The new decade starts with great promise for the sports aficionado. THIS YEAR Two cricket World Cups straddle a summer of Olympics, Paralympics expected of the 11. P.V. SINDHU and the Euros. Here are the highlights former junior world After celebrating the of 2020 to look forward to champion as he high of becoming the looks to make the first Indian to win cut for the Olympics the badminton World UEFA Euro Championship next year. Championship gold in The mega summer offering opens with the Euros in August, the shuttler June. The tournament will be held across 12 countries 10. JAMES has suffered a slump to mark the 60th anniversary of the championship. The HARDEN of sorts. Yet, all eyes draw in November has set tongues wagging already. In Since joining the will be on Sindhu at Group F, defending champs Portugal have been drawn Houston Rockets in the Olympics as she alongside World Cup winners France and Germany. 2012, Harden has looks to better her Besides, England, Croatia and the Czech Republic have emerged as a major silver medal per- been clubbed together in Group D. Enough said? threat to reckon formance from four with, even as they years ago. are on course to Olympic Games make the NBA play- 12. KEVIN DE In Tokyo this summer, there will be no Usain offs yet again. After BRUYNE Bolt or a Yelena Isinbayeva. Instead, look to three consecu- While Manchester athletes such as hurdler Karsten Warholm and tive golds at the City may have swimmer Caeleb Dressel to scorch the com- petition. The Games will see the introduction Olympics, team USA endured a disap- of four new dis- will look to him for pointing season so ciplines—skate- the same inspiration far, their key midfield boarding, surfing, Paralympic Games in Tokyo. orchestrator sits sport climbing Two weeks after the Olympics end, the action pretty atop the assist and karate. Konn- continues in Tokyo with the Paralympic Games in charts in England. ichiwa, Japan! August. Japan’s insatiable appetite for sport is ap- It will be down to parent from the 3.1 million ticket requests the organ- De Bruyne to shape isers have received so far. At the previous edition in Belgium’s fortunes at 2016, the Indian contingent comprised 19 athletes; the Euros in June. as of December, over 20 have already qualified for -Shail Desai Tokyo, making it the largest representation so far.

9 ICC World Men’s T20 World Cup Cricket’s shortest format draws the biggest cheer, which will only get louder in October at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup in Australia. Defending champions West Indies will look to extend their good form, while the hosts will hope to make the most of the familiar conditions to win their first title. With their last triumph coming during the inaugural edition in 2007, India will be hungry to prove a point Down Under.

12 ICC Women’s T20 World Cup The most successful team at the Women’s T20 World Cup, Australia will have the opportunity 10 to make it five winning campaigns, this time at home when they host the tournament in Feb- ruary. For the Indian women, it will be another opportunity to break the semi-final jinx, where they’ve exited on three previous occasions. With Mithali Raj stepping down as skipper in September, it will be down to new captain Harmanpreet Kaur to rally the troops.

11 -Shail Desai LEISURE 2020 CINEMA KEEPI WATC COMING TO A SCREEN NEAR YOU IN 2020

Shalini Pandey Siddhant Chaturvedi IMITATION GAME CINEMA Aamir Khan plays a desi Forrest Gump in Laal Singh Chaddha; David Dhawan Acting Spurs ropes in his son Varun to remake Coolie No. 1, also star- laying mentor to an aspi­ starrer Mom, makes his interna­ ring Sara Ali Khan ring rapper in Gully Boy, tional feature debut with Ramin Siddhant Chaturvedi Barhani’s Netflix adaptation of P never thought his debut Aravind Adiga’s White Tiger. Also would land him work with two of starring Priyanka Chopra­Jonas Bollywood’s biggest studios. The and Rajkummar Rao, Gourav plays 25­year­old actor will next be seen Balram, a labourer who begins THE REAL DEAL in Yash Raj Films’ Bunty Aur Babli writing letters to Wen Jiabao Deepika Padukone’s 2 and will also begin shooting with about his fraught life. Chhapaak is inspired Deepika Padukone for Dharma Netflix will also see another Productions’ next soon. A rank fresh face in YouTube star and by acid attack survivor outsider, it has taken Chaturvedi singer Shirley Setia who stars Laxmi Agarwal. Vidya five years to get here. He lost in the romance Maska. She joins Balan plays ace math- DIGITAL DEBUTS action­comedy Mard Ko Dard Nahi the squad of other newcomer ematician Shakuntala Netflix will pre- Hota after months of martial arts actresses like Alaia F (Jawaani Devi; Janhvi Kapoor miere three films training. He then gave up a super­ Jaaneman), Sanjana Sanghi (Dil essays the feted IAF with compelling hero project because he Bechara), Sharvari (Bunty pilot Gunjan Saxena female charac- was only the sidekick. Aur Babli 2) and former and Kangana Ranaut ters in Mrs Serial When writer­ SIDDHANT Miss World Manushi dons prosthetics to be director Zoya Akhtar Chhillar (Prithviraj). Killer (Jacque- CHATURVEDI Jayalalithaa. Sher- asked him to audition is one of the many Two actresses from line Fernandez), for the role of MC newcomers out to the south will also shaah pays tribute to Tribhanga (Kajol) Sher at the success impress in 2020. be making their Hindi­ Kargil War martyr and Guilty (Kiara Adarsh Gourav, party of Amazon Capt. Vikram Batra; Shirley Setia are language debuts. Advani) Prime series Inside among others Shalini Pandey, who Shoojit Sircar hails Edge, Chaturvedi, who had features in Telugu hit Sardar Udham Singh earlier refused a casting call Arjun Reddy, stars opposite for the part, couldn’t say no. The Ranveer Singh in Jayeshbhai actor wrote and rapped a verse Jordaar, and Keerthy Suresh, the about his struggles for the screen National Award­winning actress test. “It was my first film, so it had of Mahanati, will be seen in Maid­ to be impactful or be a lead,” says aan, a biopic on Indian football Chaturvedi, who was once pursu­ team coach Syed Abdul Rahim. ing chartered accountancy. Belying his reputation as ‘the Chaturvedi is one of the many torchbearer of nepotism’, Karan newcomers hoping to make a Johar will launch Lakshya, star of bigger impression in 2020. Adarsh TV show Porus, in Dostana 2. Of Gourav, who turned out a nuanced course, 2020 will have a star kid performance in the indie Rukh entry—Suneil Shetty’s son Ahan and was the bad boy in Sridevi­ stars in Tadap. —Suhani Singh

56 INDIA TODAY JANUARY 13, 2020 MAKING HISTORY The trend of going back in time to celebrate the legend of India’s heroes has lately gained traction. The year NG 2020 will see at least three epics—beginning with Tan- haji (Ajay Devgn), followed by Prithviraj (Akshay Kumar) and Sanjay Leela H Bhansali’s Gangubai Kathi- awadi (Alia Bhatt)

HIT ME BABY ONE MORE TIME There’s a bevy of sequels to look forward to. Among them, Shubh Mangal Zyada Saavdhan (Ay- ushmann Khurrana in a gay love story), Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 (Kartik Aryan), Sadak 2 (Pooja Bhatt and Sanjay Dutt return with Alia

KEEPING THEIR WORD After adaptations of Th Namesake, The Relucta Fundamentalist for the screen, Mira Nair make her TV series debut wit Vikram Seth’s A Suitab Boy, starring Tabu. Naw zuddin Siddiqui plays th lead in an adaptation of Manu Joseph’s Serious Men; Parineeti Chopra stars in Paula Hawkins The Girl on the Train FEVER PITCH For cricket buffs, there’s Kabir Khan’s ’83, on India’s World Cup win. Amitabh Bachchan plays Slum Soccer founder Vijay Barse in Nagraj Manjule’s Hindi debut; Ajay Devgn stars in Maidaan as football coach Syed Abdul Rahim. Farhan Akhtar dons boxing gloves for Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra’s Toofan, Parineeti Chopra plays the shuttler for Saina Nehwal, Taapsee Pannu is a runner from Kutch in Rashmi Rocket and Kangana Raut leads kabaddi filmPanga QA NO STOPPING HER JUGGERNAUT After Gully Boy and Made in Heaven, Zoya Akhtar is already back with a segment in Ghost Stories. The filmmaker might not have made it to the Oscars, but she is proving she’s unstoppable

Q. What has been the biggest learning from your Gully Boy Oscar campaign? You realise that the system is divided into phases, at least for the best international feature. You have to get publicists that guide you through it. You have to have screenings for members and you need a bit of muscle there. Our film has gone out, but a lot of very good things happened as well. Slowly we’ll learn. You just start making better films, work harder.

Q. You are a member of the Academy that votes for the Oscars. Have you started watching the screeners to vote for the awards? They have started arriving. The minute I am done with the promotions of Ghost Stories, I will get around to it.

Q. How was it working on Ghost Stories, your first in the horror genre? I thoroughly enjoyed it. I told my writer, Ensia Mirza, what I was looking for and she came back with a story of an older woman in need of palliative care (Surekha Sikri) and a nurse (Janhvi Kapoor) who comes in for three days. I wanted to work with themes and I picked fear of ageing, abandonment and death. Any horror or ghost story taps into some human fear, which is what makes them relatable.

Q. What are you working on in 2020? Two shows. First up there is Made in Heaven season 2, for which we are getting the scripts locked now. That should come by the end of 2020. There’s another show that Reema [Kagti] is leading for Amazon. Reema and I are writing our respective features together and working on one with Ruchika Oberoi.

—Suhani Singh

58 Volume XLV Number 2; For the week January 7-13, 2020, published on every Friday Total number of pages 72 (including cover pages)