UK £2 Issue 208, Year 5 June 2, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Palestinian After Interview refugees European Egyptian in Jordan parliament businessman elections Naguib Sawiris Page 13 Page 18 Page 9 Mecca summits reflect regional resolve to face Iranian threats ► It is possible new strategic transformations in the Arab region could have effects beyond the showdown with Iran and lead to a new approach in overall Arab relations.

Jemai Guesmi to international peace and secu- rity posed by Iran’s practices and its sponsorship of terrorist activities in Mecca the region and the world, and to use all means to deter this regime and rab and Gulf emergency limit its expansionism.” summits in Mecca illus- The Arab summit’s final statement trated political and strate- blamed Iran for the deterioration of A gic shifts in the region as it the security situation in the region. faces mounting tensions fuelled by There were objections to the final Iran’s behaviour. communique by Iraq as President A key driver for this transforma- Barham Salih warned of repercus- tion is the Saudi leadership’s un- sions of full-scale war “if the current equivocal attitude towards the Ira- crisis is not carefully managed.” nian threat as it denounced Tehran’s Arab leaders stressed Saudi Ara- “criminal” and “terrorist” acts dur- bia’s right to defend its sovereignty ing the two meetings of May 30 and and considered attacks by Iran- the May 31 summit of the Organisa- backed Houthis as a threat to Arab tion of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) national security. and called for regional and interna- They urged the international com- tional action to meet the challenge. munity to adopt a firm stand against In his address to the Arab summit, Iran following attacks on oil instal- Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz lations in Saudi Arabia May 14, and Al Saud warned that Iran “threat- sabotage of vessels off the UAE coast ens the security and stability of our May 12. Critical challenges. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (4th L, front row) poses with leaders countries and interferes in their af- The Gulf summit condemned at- attending the Arab summit held in Mecca, May 30. (SAP/DPA) fairs.” tacks by the Houthis, who have fired 225 missiles and carried out 155 drone attacks against Saudi Arabia. willing to draw practical conclu- in-chief of the Emirati newspaper The question remains whether Jordanian political analyst It condemned the sabotage opera- sions, even at a military level, re- Al Roeya, said there is a growing the near-unanimous positions of Raafat Ali said: “Both the tions on vessels in UAE waters. garding the Iranian threat. awareness the region can no longer the two summits will compel Iran to Arab and Gulf summits have The summit also highlighted ad- Aboul Gheit said “developments afford ambiguous positions regard- review its policies. risen to the level of the herence of Gulf Cooperation Council and events may lead to realising the ing Iranian threats. Egyptian Arab affairs expert Sabri challenges and, in an (GCC) countries to the Joint Defence need for creating a joint Arab force, Alluding to Iraqi and Qatari am- Azzam said decisions announced at unprecedented show of Agreement, which considers any at- since pressures generate reactions.” bivalence about Iran, he pointed out the summits “carry signals that Iran unity, agreed to confront tack on any of them as an attack on GCC Secretary-General Abdul-Latif that “Arab leaders have emphasised cannot afford to ignore so as not to Iranian threats.” all member countries. al-Zayani, at the same news confer- the need to steer away from equivo- lead the region to serious risks for Arab League Secretary-General ence, said, in the case of the GCC, cal positions.” which Tehran will be the first to suf- He said: “The failure to take a de- Ahmed Aboul Gheit, speaking at a “the system of command and joint Analysts said the success of the fer the consequences.” terrent and firm stand to confront post-meeting news conference, said defence is already in place, indeed.” summit was in galvanising an Arab It is possible new strategic trans- these terrorist practices of the Irani- the Arab summit sent a “very firm Sources at the summits said the determination to meet the Iranian formations in the Arab region could an regime in the region is what has message to anyone who interferes attending leaders moved closer to- challenge. have effects beyond the showdown led it to persist in its actions and to in Gulf affairs or attacks the United wards a common strategic plan to Jordanian political analyst Raafat with Iran and lead to a new ap- escalating them in the form we see Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.” deal with Iranian threats. The road Ali said: “Both the Arab and Gulf proach in overall Arab relations. today.” He added that the clear consensus map, they said, would take into con- summits have risen to the level of King Salman called on the inter- is that “Gulf security is a dimension sideration US support but would be the challenges and, in an unprec- Jemai Guesmi is a Tunisian writer. national community to shoulder its of Arab national security.” more regionally self-reliant. edented show of unity, agreed to responsibility regarding “the threat Leaders at the summit seemed Mohamed al-Hammadi, editor- confront Iranian threats.” P2-3,6,15 Eid al-Fitr spirit unbeatable despite economic strains in the region

The Arab Weekly staff crowd low-cost markets that stay here I find items that suit our lim- “Buyers come with different leisurely activities that offer unique open past midnight. ited budget,” Adel said. “We are do- budgets but the majority have lim- moments of quality time for the Samah Adel, a mother of four, ing whatever we can afford to bring ited means. However, they all buy whole family. Beirut said she spent hours combing the smiles to their faces.” the basics to celebrate such as the Special VAT-free, 24-hour sales, shelves at al Koukh outlet in search Food stores are especially packed special Eid sweets,” Sami said. non-stop family entertainment ca- amadan ends in the first for affordable clothing. “For big in the evening as the freshness of Egyptians are happy to celebrate tering to various age groups and week of June with the families, preparing for the Eid is the night settles in and the city is the Eid in a more politically stable cultures have been lined up across sighting of the new moon, quite expensive. My children want more secure and stable, said Ahmad and secure situation. However, the United Arab Emirates in antici- R prompting celebrations by to have new outfits to celebrate and Sami, a cashier at a major store. skyrocketing commodity prices are pation of the Eid. Muslims to mark Eid al-Fitr — the blemishing the occasion. Many forms of entertainment are Feast of the Breaking of the Fast. Sabah Mohamed said she had offered, including concerts and op- In the Arab region, people pre- hoped to get new dresses for her era for adults and cultural-themed pare for the Eid days, if not weeks, two daughters but she ended up workshops at game parks and malls in advance. buying second-hand outfits. “Used for children. “After a long month of fasting, clothes are much more affordable,” Late evening fireworks are pre- celebrating the Eid is a joy though she said. “The girls were hoping viewed across various public loca- budget is tight this year,” said Jor- to wear new dresses for the feast tions, such as Yas Marina in Abu danian accountant Omar Meqdadi. but this is apparently becoming a Dhabi and Dubai Festival City Mall “Prices of food and clothes are dream with prices going up dra- where fireworks are accompanied high, despite sales and promotions. matically.” by themed Arabic music, colourful We will spend the holiday in Am- Shop owner Ahmed Fahim said fountains and laser lights. man visiting relatives and might go he had not seen such recession in Whatever their budget concerns, to the Dead Sea for a day.” years. “Few clients are coming in parents across the region share one Economic strain and dwindling and we cannot lower prices more thing in common: A desire to make purchasing power of Jordani- than that or we would be losing their children happy during the ans are strongly felt by traders. capital,” he said. days of the Eid. “Promotions are exceptional but Nonetheless, the spirit of the cel- no one is buying. We see people ebration is undefeatable. Amuse- Oumayma Omar in Baghdad, crowding the malls but the shops ment parks, cinemas, sports clubs Roufan Nahas in Amman, are empty,” lamented shop owner and entertainment centres an- Krishna Kumar in Dubai and Ahmed Nimer. A special occasion. Palestinian children attend an event organised nounced special programmes for Amr Emam in Cairo contributed Baghdadis, looking for bargains, ahead of Eid al-Fitr holiday in Rafah. (AFP) the occasion, promising visitors to this report. 2 June 2, 2019 Cover Story

Arab leaders display unity against Iran at Mecca summits

Faith Salama become a major threat to security in Saudi Arabia and to maritime navigation, including in Bab el Abu Dhabi Mandeb Strait, Gulf states said. The final communique by lead- he threat posed by Iran to ers of the Gulf Cooperation Council the Arab Gulf region and (GCC) denounced the complicity broader Middle East fea- of Iran with Yemen’s Houthis. “We T tured high on the agenda of condemn the launch of ballistic the emergency summit in Mecca, missiles manufactured in Iran from which began May 30 and stretched Yemen into Saudi Arabia,” said the into the early morning hours of communique. “We also condemn May 31. the operations that the Houthis The meeting, called by Saudi carry out against Saudi Arabia.” Arabia, was attended by represent- The GCC communique and that atives of all Gulf and Arab coun- of the Arab summit reiterated Saudi tries, including heads of states and Arabia’s and the United Arab Emir- senior delegations, in a show of ates’ right to defend their interests unity against Iran’s threatening be- in the face of the attacks. haviour in the Arabian Gulf. “Iran should respect the sover- Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz eignty of Arab states and stop in- Al Saud issued a stinging rebuke to terfering in the affairs of countries, Iran, calling on Arab states to con- which is threatening security and front Tehran’s “criminal” actions stability in the region,” the leaders and said the international commu- said. nity should use “all means to stop Egypt led the way in voicing sup- the Iranian regime from interfering port for Arab Gulf states, with Pres- in the internal affairs of other coun- ident Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declaring tries.” that Egypt’s national security was He also accused Iran of “harbour- intrinsically linked to the security ing global and regional terrorist en- of the Arab Gulf. Sisi described the tities and threatening international attack on a Saudi oil pipeline and waterways,” a reference to attacks the sabotage of oil vessels as “ex- on oil-pumping stations in Saudi plicit acts of terrorism,” adding that Arabia and against oil tankers off all means should be used to deter those responsible. the coast of the United Arab Emir- A firm stance. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud delivers a speech during the Gulf ates. Kuwait, on the other hand, called Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Mecca, May 30. (Reuters) While it advocated for a firm re- for “wisdom” and “dialogue” to sponse against Iran’s behaviour, address mounting tensions in the Riyadh also highlighted its com- region. Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sa- 1,400km of borders and diverse re- Tehran’s nuclear deal with world UAE Minister of State for Foreign mitment to regional peace. “Saudi bah Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah said lations,” he said, referring to Iran. powers unravels. Affairs Anwar Gargash on Twitter. Arabia is keen on the security and the emergency summit was taking “Honestly, the security and stabil- The final communique that Iraq “The Arab world unanimously re- stability of the region,” King Sal- place at a critical juncture and that ity of a neighbouring Islamic coun- objected to denounced the fir- jects Iranian interference in its af- man said, adding that “the king- participating countries “should try are in the interest of Muslim ing of Iran-made ballistic missiles fairs and sends a firm and rational dom’s hand will always be extend- grasp the gravity of the event.” and Arab states.” from Yemen towards Saudi Arabia, message in difficult regional and ed in peace.” “Our Arab nation has been wit- Iranian intervention in the Syrian international circumstances.” Attacks off the UAE coast have nessing a sharp decline in its se- The Saudi king accused crisis, Iran’s interference in the af- “Mecca summits achieved great been blamed on Iran’s Islamic Rev- curity and stability, which affected Iran of “harbouring global fairs of Bahrain and support of political success,” said political olutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). On our ability to activate our common designated terrorist groups there analyst Yahya Ghalib. “The com- May 29, US national security advis- Arab action and derailed potentials and regional terrorist and Iran’s occupation of three is- muniques of both summits were er John Bolton said sabotaged ships of development and construction entities and threatening lands belonging to the United Arab marked by a political vocabulary were attacked “almost certainly by of our countries,” Sheikh Sabah international waterways,” Emirates. that combined strength, flexibility, Iran” and warned that the United said. a reference to recent Despite disagreement over how diplomacy and resolve. There was States would strike back if it came While the Arab states were uni- attacks on oil-pumping to deal with Iran’s threat, the sum- no ambiguity and an emphasis on under attack. His statement echoed fied in their condemnation of re- stations in Saudi Arabia mit was deemed “successful” by the security and safety of Saudi Pentagon officials who said that the cent attacks on Saudi Arabia and and against oil tankers off participants and outside observers. Arabia and the UAE against all IRGC was directly responsible for the United Arab Emirates, Iraq ex- the coast of the UAE. The Washington Post described forms of Iranian aggression. There attacks on the tankers. pressed objections to parts of the the gathering as “a show of unity has also been real organisational The attacks on oil-pumping sta- final communique. While he said Iraq condemns the against Iran” and an occasion for success for both summits.” tions in Saudi Arabia were claimed Iraqi President Barham Salih, attack by Iran-allied Yemeni rebels Saudi Arabia to declare its right to Iran reacted angrily to the out- by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, lead- whose country maintains close re- on a Saudi oil pipeline, he stressed self-defence amid escalating ten- come of the summits, rejecting ing to a suspension of operations of lations with both Washington and that the region should seek stability sions between Washington and what it called “unfounded” accu- the kingdom’s main cross-country Tehran, said the security and sta- based on the respect of sovereignty Tehran. sations levelled at Tehran by Arab oil pipeline. Since 2015, the Hou- bility of Iran are in the interest of and the rejection of violence. “The leadership of the Custodian leaders. this, who have used unmanned all Muslim and Arab states. Iraq has offered to mediate be- of the Two Holy Mosques and Saudi drones and medium-range ballistic “We do not hope that its secu- tween the United States and Iran diplomacy scored a major success Faith Salama is a Lebanese missiles against Saudi Arabia, have rity is targeted because we share amid escalating tensions and as at the Gulf and Arab Summit,” said journalist.

Viewpoint Mecca summits reflect Arabs’ defensive strategy towards Iran

ran seems incapable of lution of the Egyptian people that Abdulaziz Al Saud convened in just as US national security adviser changing the behavioural overthrew the Muslim Brother- Mecca are simply the continuation John Bolton did while in Abu Dhabi Khairallah pattern that governs its hood’s regime in June 2013. of the Arab defensive war against when he said Iran was responsible Khairallah actions and reactions or to The fall of the Brotherhood Iranian expansion. for the Fujairah attack. adjusting to changes in the regime, with Muhammad Morsi What Iran is not considering is Iran believes nothing has region. as president and the front of the that the Arabs do not fear it any- changed, in the region or in the Tehran refused to learn organisation, was a major blow more and are no longer prepared world. It has lost the ability to Ifrom its experiences during the to Iran, which had long sought to to keep silent when it comes to adapt to the deliberate and pur- 8-year war with Iraq. Since the end infiltrate deeply one of the most defending their security and inter- poseful economic war that the of that war, which it nearly lost, important Arab countries. ests. United States is waging against it. Iran worked to transform itself The most important Arab blow This is the new development The purpose of that war is to turn into a regional force, particularly dealt to Iran was in Yemen. The that Iran is refusing to deal with. It Iran into a normal state, no more after the series of mistakes made Houthis took control of Sana’a on resorts to the same old language of no less, a state that concerns itself by Saddam Hussein and after the September 21, 2014, and, from “cooperating with Arab Gulf states with its internal affairs only. lenient positions adopted by suc- there, they expanded in various to maintain security in the Gulf” Can Iran adapt to the Arab and cessive US administrations. directions, all the way to Aden and or of being ready to sign a “non- US demands? Arab countries, especially the Mocha. aggression pact” with this or that The answer is simply that US Gulf states, became aware that Iran What Iran had not expected was Arab country. This type of speak is President Donald Trump’s invita- is a fiercely belligerent country the birth of an Arab alliance and no longer deceiving anyone as long tions for “dialogue” are meant to with long and effective tentacles. the subsequent Operation Decisive as it is not reflected on the ground. embarrass Iran more than anything It has, for example, turned Storm, which began in March 2015 The second thing Iran has been else. The terms of the American The two Arab and Hezbollah into a party capable and shrunk the Iranian presence in unable to comprehend is that there dialogue are spelled out in US of playing a regional role beyond Yemen, pending the day when the is a different US administration, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s Muslim summits that Lebanon’s borders, reaching Syria, Yemenis regain their capital and which has opened every past and well-known 12 points that seek to Saudi King Salman bin Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain and even every inch of their territory. present issue with Tehran, starting transform Iran into just another Abdulaziz Al Saud Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, without Operation Decisive Storm was a with the November 1979 hostage regional country that is disabused forgetting Egypt, Jordan, the Pales- defensive war in the true sense of crisis at the US Embassy in Tehran, from the illusion of “exporting the convened in Mecca tinian territories and especially the the word, given that Saudi Arabia which lasted for 444 days, then the revolution.” Trump says he does are simply the Gaza Strip. and its allies were fully aware of bombing of the US Embassy and a not seek regime change in Iran. Two things have changed in re- the goal that Iran was seeking to at- US Marines base in Beirut in 1983 However, the most important continuation of the cent years, however, that Iran has tain through the Houthis. They are and the recent attack on oil tankers question remains: Can the regime Arab defensive war of been unable to comprehend. First, nothing more than Iranian agents off the Port of Fujairah. in Tehran both change face and Operation Decisive there is an Arab group capable of and one of Iran’s sectarian militias It is clear that the Trump admin- stay in power at the same time? taking initiative. This was shown found throughout the region. istration will not back down from Storm against Iranian in Egypt when this group, led by The two Arab and Muslim sum- Iranian provocations. It would Khairallah Khairallah is a expansion. Saudi Arabia, supported the revo- mits that Saudi King Salman bin rather call things by their names, Lebanese writer. June 2, 2019 3 Mecca Summits

Viewpoint Iran’s ‘non-aggression’ talk fools no one

ers it has for so long antagonised? What is clear is that Iran’s efforts to reach out to its Arab Iman Zayat neighbours are not, as some say, aimed at resolving tensions or ending its standoff with Wash- ington. Given the timing of the announcement, Iran’s move was more likely an attempt at pre- venting a united Arab front at the Mecca summits. This effort, of course, failed. Arab countries came out of the Mecca summits with a more united front. They gave particular focus on how to come together and address issues such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iran’s meddling and counter-terror efforts. For this reason, Iran’s propos- als were ignored and are likely to continue to be ignored by Arab hen countries. entering Iran, which has effectively negotia- been at war since the inception tions, of the Islamic Republic in 1979, whether has continually sought to further directly or tension and chaos, not only with indirectly, it the United States and Israel but Wis important to understand with with neighbouring Gulf countries, whom one is dealing, what their through which it legitimises its motivations are for coming to so-called Islamic revolution. Increasingly vigilant. A Saudi soldier stands guard at the press centre for the Arab and Islamic the table and what objectives Only through conflict can summits in Mecca, May 30. (AP) they hope to achieve. Iran’s regime thrive and maintain On May 26, Iran offered to sign control over the country’s 81 this logic, if there is unwillingness throughout the world, with a players, a pact with Rohani may a “non-aggression pact” with its million people of various sects, to negotiate with Tehran, Arab united leadership and political not mean a pact with Khamenei Gulf neighbours, claiming, in the religions, ethnicities and cul- countries will end up taking the consensus, the decision-making and a pact with Khamenei may words of Iranian Foreign Minister tures. The mullahs’ strategy is to blame. process in Tehran’s corridors of not guarantee the commitment Mohammad Javad Zarif, that it play up nationalist sentiment and Iran knows this and is playing power is quite complex. from the IRGC and so on. Unfor- wants to “build balanced rela- fool the people into thinking they it to its advantage. Some experts say Iranian tunately, this renders Iran’s offer tions” with all Gulf states. face a permanent set of enemies That said, we should not be Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali ridiculous and futile. Two days later, Iranian Deputy all over the world. so pessimistic as to stand in the Khamenei and his conserva- We should look to history for Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Bearing this in mind, it is clear way of any possible resolution, tive associates always have the guidance. How many non-aggres- during a visit to Qatar, said Teh- that Iran’s supposed efforts to agreement or eventual peace final word. Others warn that the sion pacts, we should ask, have ran was ready to engage in “dia- engage in dialogue are insincere. deal. Everyone yearns for peace, IRGC has become a state within a worked? What became of Adolf logue” with Arab Gulf countries Many observers and experts, except for Iran’s leaders, who state, competing for power with Hitler’s pact with Joseph Stalin to address escalating tensions in however, are taking the bait. They have given little impression that Khamenei himself. There is also in 1939, two years before German the region. say the country is genuinely will- they are willing to change. news of political infighting be- tanks rolled into Soviet territory? Zarif’s and Araqchi’s state- ing to pursue friendlier ties with Inflammatory rhetoric from tween various factions in Tehran, How successful was Iraqi leader ments surprised many, seeming its Arab neighbours. According to Tehran, diplomatic pressure be- especially involving President Saddam Hussein’s non-aggression to indicate a radical shift from ing exerted on Arab governments, Hassan Rohani and his team of pact with Saudi Arabia in 1989, Iran’s efforts to antagonise neigh- attacks launched through proxy so-called “reformists.” one year before his troops in- bours and sow chaos. However, militias, especially the Houthis, Given this complex web of vaded Kuwait? a closer examination reveals that and acts of sabotage perpetrated Iran, which has been med- Iran’s offer is nothing but a fresh Iran is not interested on tankers in the Gulf by the Is- dling in Arab affairs more than manoeuvre to trick the world into in non-aggression or lamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 40 years, is not interested in thinking Tehran is open to peace dialogue. Even if it (IRGC) are hardly positive signs. Iran’s move was more non-aggression or dialogue. Even while further expanding its influ- So, if Tehran’s Arab neighbours if it were, it is far too late for the ence in the region. were, it is far too late are to consider its offer, shouldn’t likely an attempt to Arab world to take a chance on its One question is “Why now?” for the Arab world to they first ask who they are really prevent a united Arab “good gestures.” Why has Iran suddenly changed engaged with? its tune and communicated a take a chance on its While some view Iran as front at the Mecca Iman Zayat is the Managing Edi- willingness to sit down with pow- “good gestures.” similar to many other countries summits. tor of The Arab Weekly. Viewpoint Trump’s ‘Deal of the Century’ staggers after Mecca summits

ecca was the istration, including recognising before the 1967 Six-Day War and This led the Palestine Liberation site of a record Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. with East Jerusalem as its capital. Organisation Secretary-General number of Speaker after speaker reiter- It condemned the “transfer of Saeb Erekat to rebrand the plan as Kamel Hawwash summits ated the long-held position that embassies of the United States the “deal of the next century.” — three in 24 the solution was the creation and Guatemala to Jerusalem” and The US team met with Moroc- hours — dur- of an independent Palestinian urged its members to “boycott” can King Mohammed VI and ing the last state with East Jerusalem as its countries that have diplomatic Jordanian King Abdullah II en Mdays of Ramadan. While the capital and recommitted to the missions in the city. route to Tel Aviv. The Moroccans summits were for different Arab Peace Initiative as the way to While Arab and Muslim leaders declined to comment on their constituencies, there were many achieve a comprehensive solu- were meeting in Mecca, Trump’s discussions with the Americans. issues that were important to all tion to the conflict, which would “Deal of the Century” architects However, the Jordanians were and for which Saudi King Salman reward Israel with normalisation — White House advisers Jared clear in restating the position of bin Abdulaziz Al Saud hoped to of relations after the end of its oc- Kushner and Jason Greenblatt — King Abdullah that the founda- achieve unity. cupation of all Arab land. were in Jerusalem meeting with tion for peace is a Palestinian Two summits were “emer- Those should have been Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin state on the 1967 borders with gency” meetings called following reassuring words for Palestinian Netanyahu. It is unlikely they East Jerusalem as its capital. attacks on a Saudi pipeline and President Mahmoud Abbas, who thought they would be meeting While the American pair’s pur- ships in UAE territorial waters, made the only direct reference with the prime minister the day pose of the visits to Jordan and attributed to Iran or Yemen’s to US President Donald Trump’s after his failure to form a coali- Morocco was to drum up support Houthis. “Deal of the Century.” He reiter- tion government, sending the for the Manama workshop, it ap- One summit involved lead- ated, in the presence of Bahraini Israelis back to polling stations on pears this failed. ers from the Gulf Cooperation King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, September 17. The refusal of the Palestin- Council and the other included that the Palestinians would not be Their plan had been to intro- ians to take part in the Manama the wider Arab League leaders. joining the Manama “Prosperity duce economic and political as- workshop, the developments in King Salman was looking to the for Peace” workshop June 25-26, pects of the “Deal of the Century” Israel and the 2020 US presiden- summits to show solidarity with though he did not call for the in the coming months, having tial election season seriously call Riyadh and Abu Dhabi and to pre- meeting to be cancelled. delayed the announcement of the into question the purpose of the sent a united front against what The third summit was the 14th plan until the formation of the Is- Manama workshop. If the Ameri- is seen as a threat from Tehran. regular meeting of the Organisa- raeli government following April’s cans decide to go ahead with it, While the American There were also references to tion of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). elections. then it can only be to provide pair’s purpose of the Syria, Yemen and Libya. The final communique of the It is likely that the full deal will Israeli leaders and businessmen visits to Jordan and The one issue that had unani- OIC reiterated the centrality of the not be revealed before the forma- with another photo opportunity mous support was a commitment Palestinian issue to the organisa- tion of the next Israeli govern- to normalise their appearances in Morocco was to drum to a just resolution of the Pales- tion and its members and that ment in October. However, that Arab capitals. up support for the tinian issue. The summit reaf- the way to achieve peace was would coincide with the begin- firmed the position taken at the through a two-state solution, with ning of Trump’s re-election bid, Kamel Hawwash is a Manama workshop, it Dhahran Summit in 2018 rejecting a Palestinian state established calling into question the timing British-based Palestinian appears this failed. steps taken by the Trump admin- along boundaries determined of the release of the peace plan. university professor and writer. 4 June 2, 2019 News & Analysis Tensions with Iran Possible mediators for crisis between Iran and US line up, but prospects in doubt

Thomas Seibert Iran’s neighbours Iraq and Oman, countries that have good relations with both Tehran and Washington, Istanbul took the lead. Oman’s top diplomat, Yusuf bin egional and international Alawi bin Abdullah, hosted Iranian powers are lining up as Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas possible mediators in the Araghchi on May 26 for talks about R crisis between Iran and “regional developments,” as state the United States to pull the region media put it. Bin Alawi said earlier back from the brink of war but that Oman was trying “with other prospects of any initiative to cool parties” to calm tensions between tensions remain in doubt. the United States and Iran. Assurances by US President Don- Iraqi Foreign Minister Moham- ald Trump that his aim was not to med Alhakim used a meeting with topple the Iranian leadership but Iranian Foreign Minister Moham- to make a new “deal” with Tehran mad Javad Zarif in Baghdad on the on the nuclear issue and a state- same day to stress the need for me- ment by Iranian President Hassan diation. “We are trying to help and Rohani, who said the “road is not to be mediators,” said Alhakim, closed” for negotiations, set a new adding that Baghdad “will work to tone but convincing both sides to reach a satisfactory solution.” He take concrete steps of de-escala- also said Iraq opposed unilateral tion will be hard. US action. The United States has strength- The governments of Japan and ened its military presence in the Germany, the world’s third and Gulf region to counter what of- fourth biggest economies, respec- ficials in Washington said were tively, also stepped in. Japanese credible reports of impending Ira- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was nian aggressive actions. Critics in considering a trip to Iran in the the United States accuse Trump’s coming weeks, Japanese broad- national security adviser John Bol- caster NHK reported. Iran said a ton and US Secretary of State Mike visit by Abe was unlikely in the A port in a storm. Iranian President Hassan Rohani (R) greets Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Pompeo of provoking Tehran to near future. Abdullah at the presidency office in Tehran, March 18. (AP) unleash a war. Trump, in Tokyo for a state visit, welcomed Abe’s help. “I really believe that Iran would fer on how to achieve that,” he said. prove to the leadership in Teh- could be controversial. Hardlin- A softening of the US like to make a deal and I think Switzerland, which represents ran that Trump can go around the ers in Tehran denounced the 2015 position towards Iran that’s very smart of them and I US diplomatic interests in Tehran regime-change proponents in his nuclear deal and criticised Rohani could irritate think that’s a possibility to hap- because Iran and the United States entourage.” for failing to deliver on promises of Washington’s allies pen,” Trump said during a news have not had diplomatic relations It was unclear whether Trump’s economic improvements following Saudi Arabia and Israel, conference with Abe. for 40 years, also offered to help, disclaimer on regime change and the agreement. both of whom regard “It has a chance to be a great reports said. his call for a new deal to limit Iran’s Analysts said some groups in Tehran as a threat that country with the same leadership,” Willingness by international nuclear ambitions defined a new Iran are not interested in lowering must be dealt with Trump added. “We aren’t looking players to organise indirect talks US policy. The 72-year-old presi- tensions because a sense of crisis decisively. for regime change. I just want to is a good first step but will not dent is known for abrupt changes improved their position in Tehran. make that clear. We are looking for be enough to solve the problem, of direction. Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a visit- Iran and its proxies stand ac- no nuclear weapons.” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Following Trump’s statement in ing fellow at the Brookings Doha cused of attacks on oil tankers in Germany sent a top Foreign Min- Project at the International Crisis Tokyo, Zarif hinted that Tehran’s Centre, said the recent oil tanker waters of the United Arab Emir- istry official, Jens Ploetner, to Teh- Group. first priority was to relieve some of attacks could have been the work ates, on an oil pipeline in Saudi ran for talks and hosted Pompeo Efforts of mediators “are valu- the pressure of sanctions. US sanc- of groups linked to Iran’s Islamic Arabia and on the diplomatic dis- in Berlin on May 31. Pompeo said able but would never replace the tions were “hurting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that trict in Baghdad not far from the Washington would not stand in the utility of a direct communication people” and causing regional ten- wanted to escalate the situation for US Embassy. way of a system the Europeans are or at least a hotline between Iran sions, he said on Twitter. “Actions their own gains. During a visit to the United Arab developing to shield companies and the US,” Vaez said in an e-mail — not words — will show whether “They could be provocations by Emirates, Bolton blamed Tehran dealing with Iran from US sanc- in response to questions. or not that’s [Trump’s] intent.” elements close to [the] Revolution- for the incidents, at one point say- tions, aso long as the focus is on “What is needed at this stage is A softening of the US position ary Guards to get a war going with ing it was “almost certainly” Iran providing humanitarian and other for President Trump to set aside towards Iran could irritate Wash- the aim of cementing their own that planted explosives on the four permitted goods. his rhetoric and maximalist de- ington’s allies Saudi Arabia and Is- power in Iran and secure access to oil tankers off the UAE coast. German Minister of Foreign Af- mands and appoint an envoy for rael, both of which regard Tehran financial means for years,” Fathol- The military build-up alarmed fairs Heiko Maas said both coun- negotiating with Iran who has a as a threat that has to be dealt with lah-Nejad said via e-mail. countries in the region and beyond tries agreed that Iran must be pre- record of constructive engagement decisively. and several governments said they vented from obtaining nuclear with the Iranians,” Vaez added. In Iran, efforts to find a com- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly were ready to act as mediators. weapons. “It’s no secret that we dif- “That is the only option that would promise with the United States correspondent. Why Iran may have no incentive to negotiate with the US

Kelly Kennedy demands,” said Iraq analyst Omar of them, and I think that’s a possi- sentially too late to change course nuclear deal but got none of what it al-Nidawi. “We’re basically asking bility to happen.” on relations with Iran. was promised, said Abbas Kadhim, them to disarm and then come to Iranian Foreign Minister Mo- “I think that we need to not as- director and resident senior fellow Washington the table. So what is left?” hammad Javad Zarif on Twitter ac- sume that a confrontation with Iran at the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initia- Many saw Pompeo’s list as de- cused the United States of causing is under way,” she said. “In some tive. s US President Donald manding leadership change in Teh- problems and hurting the Iranian respects, we’re already at war with “Everybody said they were com- Trump signalled he doesn’t ran and near impossible for Iran to people and said Iran is not working Iran but a direct military confron- plying and then we go back and pull want war with Iran, ex- meet. towards nuclear weapons. tation doesn’t necessarily have to out because it was a bad deal,” Ka- A perts in Washington said Late in May, the United States happen.” dhim said. that outcome could be inevitable if granted a third 90-day sanctions Iran may decide it’s not It’s important not to give the Ira- Pregent argued that pulling out of the United States doesn’t give Iran a waiver to Iraq, the Trump adminis- going to bother and nians the idea that war is inevitable, the deal was the right thing to do, way out that allows the country to tration bypassed the US Congress to she said, but that’s hard to do when saying there would still be a nuclear “save face” and the United States’ authorise $8 billion in arms sales to instead wait until Bolton, even over the protests of agreement if there hadn’t been a “12 points,” which were set by Sec- Saudi Arabia in response to what it “regime change” in the Trump, advocates regime change ballistic missile deal that violated retary of State Mike Pompeo last called the “fundamental threat” of United States after the “as a private citizen.” rules of the UN Security Council. year for Iran to meet to withdraw Iran, the US military accused Iran’s next presidential The 12 steps are a non-starter, she “The solution for that is to nego- sanctions, don’t do that. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps election, said Michael said. tiate another deal,” Kadhim said, “If they adhere to them, they col- of being directly responsible for at- Pregent, senior fellow at “We shouldn’t generalise and “not to pull out of the deal that lapse,” said Michael Pregent, senior tacks on tankers in the United Arab the Hudson Institute. say any government could agree we already concluded. That has fellow at the Hudson Institute. “I Emirates, the United States decid- to this,” she said, referring to Bol- made us in a weak position. For the don’t see Iran doing that.” ed, the Associated Press reported, The Trump administration ap- ton’s repeated statements that any world, we look as if we don’t abide Pregent said stronger pressure to send an additional 1,500 troops pears to be trying to roll back any normal country could easily work by our word.” on Iran allows the United States to to join an aircraft carrier in the Mid- escalation, with both the United within the confines of the US State Though she agreed that the deal return to the negotiating table for dle East and saw conflicts between States and Iran issuing fighting Department’s demands. “If we’re was a mistake — it was too narrowly a nuclear deal from a position of Trump and White House national words over the past month, Pregent talking about diplomacy, we’re not focused — Abdo said pressuring strength but Iran, suffering from security adviser John Bolton over said. giving the Iranians a reason — an in- Iran to the point of a military con- the sanctions as well as internal whether the United States would There are two issues on which vitation — to step back to the table.” frontation is not a better option. economic issues, worrying about like regime change in Iran. Iran is unlikely to change position, Iran may decide it’s not going to “That message has to be the mes- Trump administration officials pro- “We aren’t looking for regime Pregent said. First, Tehran won’t bother and instead wait until “re- sage to the Iranians,” she said. “We moting regime change and feeling change,” Trump said at a news con- disclose all information about its gime change” in the United States don’t want war. We want to go back the United States broke its promises ference in Japan. “We are looking nuclear programme and, second, it after the next presidential election, to the negotiating table.” by pulling out of the nuclear deal, for no nuclear weapons. I really be- won’t dismantle it. Pregent said. needs a reason to negotiate. lieve that Iran would like to make a Geneive Abdo, resident scholar at From the Iranian point of view, Kelly Kennedy is an Arab Weekly “We have given the Iranians 12 deal, and I think that’s very smart the Arabia Foundation, said it’s es- Tehran held up its end of the Iran correspondent in Washington. June 2, 2019 5 News & Analysis Iran Khamenei’s 30 years of revolution: What legacy?

badly damaged over the course of the revolution. The arrangement probably worked only because Rafsan- Ali Alfoneh jani had likely convinced Ahmad Khomeini he could seize leader- ujjat al-Islam — ship after the death of his father. later Ayatollah However, when Ruhollah Khomeini — Ali Khamenei died on June 3, 1989, Rafsan- unexpectedly jani cheated Ahmad Khomeini seized the mantle by elevating Khamenei to leader- of political ship, perhaps hoping he could leadership in Iran manipulate him as easily as he had Hon June 4, 1989, and has since manipulated Ahmad Khomeini and ruled the country as the “leader of others. the revolution.” Khamenei had other designs. What have Khamenei’s distinct What he lacked in charisma, he contributions been to the politics made up for in discipline and by of the regime over the past three patiently institutionalising the re- decades and what legacy will he gime. He vastly expanded Khomei- likely leave behind? ni’s “office of the leader” into a Before June 1989, Khamenei was huge bureaucracy and appointed never considered a serious candi- thousands of trusted civil servants date for leadership and his rise to to work as “representative of the power within the ranks of the revo- leader,” in effect his ears and eyes, lutionary elites of the regime was in all the regime’s institutions. mostly hidden from the public eye. Khamenei also did all he could Less than a year after the fall to make sure Iran stayed in a of the shah’s regime in February revolutionary state. He correctly 1979, Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah believes that the regime trans- Khomeini, the charismatic leader forming from “revolutionary” to and founder of the regime, suffered “normalcy” would undermine the an incapacitating heart attack. He very nature of the Islamic Republic remained the official figurehead of and has done his utmost to prevent the regime — and perhaps a stra- such normalisation. tegic leader — but a secret trium- As president, Rafsanjani, in- A revolution with a cost. An Iranian woman holds a poster of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali virate of his confidantes emerged spired by China’s Deng Xiaoping, Khamenei and late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini (L) during a rally in Tehran. (AP) to attend to the state’s day-to-day Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad affairs. and Indonesia’s Suharto, pursued Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s rejuvenate the revolution and States from the nuclear deal, once Ahmad Khomeini, his son, a policy of economic liberalisa- perestroika accelerated public purge the likes of Rafsanjani and again forcing the regime towards functioned as a gatekeeper to the tion minus democratisation in the demands for political freedoms, Khatami. Ahmadinejad, however, the path of revolution. leader of the revolution and, as the 1990s. Khamenei feared opening which led to the collapse of the considered Khamenei to be among Khamenei’s 30-year revolu- father grew frailer towards the end the economy would bring about Soviet Union. those in need of being purged, forc- tion came with a cost to Iran and of 1980s, used Ruhollah Khomeini’s public demands for political free- Khatami, Kayhan argued, was ing the revolution leader to once Iranians but increasingly to the seal to issue official decrees to dom. committing a similar mistake that again use the IRGC to get rid of clerical elites of the country. His destroy his own political rivals and Khamenei extended his sup- could lead to the end of the revolu- Ahmadinejad and his gang. resistance to economic reform left enemies, such as Grand Ayatollah port to the regime’s leftists, who tion and collapse of the regime. Khamenei’s 30-year revolu- Iran a poorer country and obstacles Hussein-Ali Montazeri, Khomeini’s attacked Rafsanjani’s economic In response, Khamenei put all his tion risked coming to a halt when to political reform made Iranians designated successor. policies and demanded continued weight behind reactionary forces, Iranian President Hassan Rohani, less free. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, argu- state control of the economy to including the Islamic Revolution- facing the extreme pressure of the Most significantly, his over- ably the most politically talented of secure the revolution’s promise of ary Guard Corps (IRGC) to stop Obama administration’s economic reliance on the IRGC is changing Khomeini’s students, emerged not social justice. Khatami’s attempts at political sanctions, gave up parts of its the very nature of the regime into a only as a parliamentary speaker but Iranian President Mohammad liberalisation. nuclear programme and negotiated military dictatorship. What a legacy in practice as the regime’s grand Khatami’s attempts to democra- Khamenei even experimented the Iran nuclear deal. to leave behind. vizier. Khamenei, Rafsanjani’s tise Iranian politics did not fare with a Maoist cultural revolution Here, the revolution received less gifted, but reliable friend, any better. Kayhan, Khamenei’s by bringing to power Mahmoud Ah- assistance from an unexpected Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at was elected president and tried to mouthpiece, dubbed Khatami madinejad and a younger genera- quarter — US President Donald the Arab Gulf States Institute in rebuild state institutions that were “Ayatollah Gorbachev”: The tion of revolutionaries who could Trump, who withdrew the United Washington. Six reasons why Iran won’t change

Third, Iran is a corrupt state. secret nature and on people acting Fourth, Iran is terrorising the the “jobs” that Tehran does. Corruption is the nature of the as a mafia. region by appearing to be the Fifth, Iran does not practice ter- system in Tehran. Militias acting Just as no one knows the budg- one that controls terrorism in the rorism against governments or in- Ali al-Sarraf as a state above the state think ets allocated to the militias, no one region. When the rumble between dividuals but against entire social that they have the right not to be knows what they are doing with Washington and Tehran rose, ter- entities, threatening them with accountable to the law. Billions the funds because they are above rorist fingers moved to fire a mis- destruction. Based on a doctrine he United States’ of dollars are moving outside the accountability. When one organ of sile into Baghdad’s Green Zone, that destruction of the society is strutting and official and formal channels. They the regime commits a crime, it is sabotage four ships off the Port of part of the prospect for the emer- cowboy diplomacy are part of a system that knows no impossible to know who did what Fujairah and burn oil pumping sta- gence of the “Awaited Mahdi” and has been toned regulations, a system that depends or who gave the order. That’s how tions in Saudi Arabia. These were that spreading grievances and down to, not just a on connections and relations of a the mafia functions. messages that terrorism is part of crimes will hasten this emergence, notch less than war, any place that Tehran’s hands but even to less than touch will become another rotten Tregime change in Iran. So, it is Iraq. right to ask, considering such a Sixth, Iran is a state of hatred new “equation,” about what can and grudges, nourished by the change in Iran when the regime worst historical criminal legacy. does not change. In 1624, Shah Abbas massacred Nothing can change. It is in the three-quarters of Baghdad’s nature of the mullahs’ regime, if it population and made its people stays untouched, to wreak havoc eat dog cadavers to force them to in the region. convert to Shiism. In 1743, Mosul Iran is a state of militias and experienced the atrocities of what gangs. It expands its foreign influ- became known as the “siege by ence and interests by establishing Nader Shah.” In 1775, Basra expe- and sponsoring militias and gangs rienced Karim Khan’s siege, which in neighbouring and far-away lasted 13 months, wiping out most countries. This is more than clear of the city’s population. anywhere Tehran has influence At the same time, Iran does not and a role. mind talking but only on the basis Second, Iran is a sectarian of accepting those doctrines, not state. Its dogma is the spearhead just because they are part of its na- of sectarian strife and conflict in ture but because that’s how it sees Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. It itself: arrogant and intractable. is a dogma that relies on accusing The mullahs’ regime has proven other sects of heresy and criminal- that today’s Iran is the extension ising them. of a 500-year brutal legacy. It can’t The details of this dogma reveal do otherwise. a brutal nature that is no different Washington negotiated with from the Islamic State’s brutality Tehran until they reached the fate- and savagery. The Islamic State ful nuclear agreement and, now, was the result of a long series of US President Donald Trump has atrocities committed against mil- given the bottom line: He doesn’t lions of people in Iraq and Syria want to change the regime in Iran. for purely sectarian reasons. This What a storm in a teacup! is why it duplicated those atroci- Dangerous dogma. An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting members of the Basij ties. paramilitary force painted on the wall of a government building in downtown Tehran. (AP) Ali al-Sarraf is an Iraqi writer. 6 June 2, 2019 Opinion

Editorial The Mecca summits

he Mecca summits drew the attention of the world to the dangers that Iran’s provocative behaviour constitute for global peace and security. The posi- tions expressed by attending heads of state also showed Tehran the over- whelming rejection of its bellicose Tactivities by leaders of the Gulf countries, the Arab region and the Muslim world. The Arab summit’s final statement warned that Iran’s behaviour “poses a direct and serious threat” and urged “the international community to take a firm stand to confront Iran and its destabilising acts in the region.” Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud was unequivocal as he advocated for a firm stand against Tehran. “The absence of a firm and dissua- sive response to Iran’s acts of sabotage in the region has encouraged it to continue and strengthen them in the way we see today,” he told Arab leaders. In a situation of escalating tensions, Iran is courting regional and global disaster through its activities. It is not Iranian leaders’ double talk or any international complacency about the threats at hand that would offer assurances for countries of the region and to all others that peace is not in jeopardy. Despite its denials, Tehran was, all experts — and not just US officials — agree, involved in the May 12 attacks on vessels off the Fujairah coast, the May 14 Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations and the © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly May 19 attack on Baghdad’s Green Zone. It remains to be seen if Iran can see the risks that its irresponsible behaviour poses for world peace. Hypocrisy about the Palestinians’ Results of European plight has lasted too long parliament elections Ibrahim Zobeidi uropean parliament elections warrant the attention of the Arab world. Are there more lost leaders, imams and mujahideen than the current Despite the appearance of growing ones, who can fight only by using big high-flying rhetoric? irrelevance of Europe in the Middle East, both shores of the Mediterra- efore I continue with the refugee camps, must have consequences, or the massacres nean are closely connected in many this column, let me woken up to realise that Ayatol- of the Tel al-Zaatar refugee camp ways. ask: Are the Palestin- lah Ruhollah Khomeini and his in Lebanon or the cemeteries EThe results of the elections at the end of May ian refugees today heir, velayat-e faqih, Iranian at their camps in Syria or the reflected significant changes. happy or miser- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continuous displacement and For the first time since 1979, centrist formations able in their refugee not to mention Nasrallah and humiliation campaigns in the lost their majorities. Leftist-leaning Greens on the Bcamps? Have they reached the his companion al-Quds Force countries that had been forced one hand and the far right and nationalists on the commonsensical and realistic Commander Qassem Soleimani, to accept hosting them but with other have gained ascendancy. conviction that any serious and Bashar Assad, Recep Tayyip funds coming from the UN Relief Environmental parties won about 70 seats in the implementable proposal that Erdogan, Hamas and the leaders and Works Agency for Palestine 751-member EU parliament, a substantial would deliver them from the of the Palestinian factions born Refugees (UNRWA). improvement over the 51 seats they garnered in squalid camps has become clos- in the capitals of steadfast- There hasn’t been one single the 2014 election. Far-right populists won nearly er to their acquiescence than at ness and refusal, have all been year that UNRWA did not com- 25% of the seats, a notch up from their previous any other time after they have laughing at them and take them plain of lack of resources and 20% standing but not the sweeping wave some been dreaming of returning to for fools. apologised for failing to provide predicted. their homes and refusing any It is time for the Palestinians more than only the necessary The Greens are likely to try to shape alternative other type of settlement for 70 to tell this whole gang: Enough, services to keep the refugees policies to the dominant centrist vision that has years? you hypocrites. alive, not even in a dignified influenced the agendas of the parliament till now. And, now, on with the col- Those who experienced life manner worthy of human be- With Liberals, the Greens will strive to nudge the umn. in a Palestinian refugee camp in ings. European parliament’s position leftward. The great militant leader Syria, Lebanon or Jordan for just These poor Palestinians cannot That would include offering different Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s a few days — not even months or simply erase from their memory approaches to foreign policy and migration general-secretary, is refusing to years — would quickly conclude 70 years of dreams about return- policies than those of the far right and those of the have the Palestinian refugees that every Palestinian child born ing to their farms and homes. increasingly right-leaning centrists. The Greens settle in the countries that host in these camps must be curs- They have been patient, stead- are likely to push for a “humane” approach to their camps surrounded with ing the hour when their cause fast and refused to settle in the migration and “progressive internationalist” barbed wire. He is asking them was turned into the goose that’s Arab countries where they have stances. That could help open a new debate in to wait for Israel to be wiped been laying golden eggs for all been displaced since the early Europe about the root causes of illegal migration out and for the Palestinian ter- those Arab and Muslim brokers days of the famous “three Nos” and the social development deficit in the Euro- ritories to be liberated from the who, for 70 years, have been invented by the Arab leaders at pean Union’s Arab “neighbourhood.” river to the sea. peddling the rights of the people their summit in Khartoum in The Arab world, which suffers from serious In his view, they should wait of Palestine for fat salaries, pad- 1964: “No peace, no negotiation environmental problems, not the least of which for the establishment of the ded positions and other material and no recognition of Israel.” are water scarcity and urbanisation pressures, great Palestinian state, with Je- gains from the United States and The great resistance and could benefit the Greens’ focus. The Greens’ rusalem as its religious, political Israel, provided they do not use liberation leader Nasrallah says political idealism and lack of experience with and economic capital and with their gains, in whole or in part, recent developments in the Gulf security and military issues could be, however, a Tel Aviv as its other touristic to support Palestine, not even region, which are targeting Iran, handicap for them in grasping some of MENA’s and fun capital. This, of course, in words. are linked to the Trump admin- vital challenges. is going to happen after a very It is difficult for the Palestin- istrations’ yet-to-be-unveiled Arab countries, especially their diasporas in long time, with God’s help and ian refugees, their children and “Deal of the Century.” Nasral- Europe, will have to worry more about the rising mercy. their grandchildren to forget lah did not fail to praise the influence of the far right. One-fourth of the seats Surely, the Palestinians, the tragedy of Black September positions of his fellow Bahraini in the European parliament does constitute especially those prisoners of in Jordan, with its causes and Mujahideen, who are opposed political clout by any stretch of the imagination. to having their country host the The issue of migration has relatively ceased to first phase of the US peace plan. be a key driver of policy because the fears over While celebrating the “Day foreign migrants have ebbed since 2015. However, of Resistance and Liberation,” fringe groups in Europe continue, with help from Nasrallah declared that the social media, to fuel conspiracy theories of Lebanese and Palestinians reject population replacement and population transfer the American step and believe in pitting European populations against migrants the Palestinian refugees’ right to with different cultures and religion, especially return to their land. those with Arab and Muslim backgrounds. Are there any more desperate What has not ebbed within the far right, times than these days? Are there especially in France, is wariness about political more lost leaders, imams and Islam and about the Muslim faith itself. Confusing mujahideen than the current Islam with Islamism can create further misunder- ones, who can fight only by us- standings between the Arab Muslim world and ing big high-flying rhetoric about Europe. resistance and steadfastness and Arabs have a stake in establishing more bridges nothing else? with the European parliament beyond isolated So, OK, “Death to Israel” and discussions between individual Arab countries “Death to America” but when and European parliament commissions and EU will you make good on your institutions. promises, you hypocrites? The first Euro-Arab summit of Sharm el-Sheikh should have provided the initial introductions Left to their fate. Posters of late Palestinian leader Yasser Ibrahim Zobeidi is an Iraqi between the two communities that are so close Arafat plastered on a wall in the Burj al-Barajneh refugee writer and US publisher of The but yet so far. camp, a southern suburb of Beirut. (AFP) Arab Weekly. June 2, 2019 7 Opinion

Erdogan looks at Cyprus to boost standings Published by Al Arab in the polls but risks starting a war Publishing House Claude Salhani Publisher In diverting Turkey’s foreign policy from that established by Mustafa Kemal, aka Ataturk, and Group Executive Editor Erdogan is shifting tectonic geopolitical plates, possibly redrawing the Middle East map. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD Editor-in-Chief here is always ously wore like a crown. There problems. near Cyprus. “Our aim in mili- potential trouble is no doubt that Erdogan is However, Erdogan would tary exercises is to show that Oussama Romdhani when authoritarian weaker and politically chal- face severe problems with the Turkish armed forces are rulers sense their lenged. the United States. The Trump extremely determined, com- position weaken- An incursion in Cyprus administration is quite upset mitted and capable of ensuring Managing Editor ing because they where the Turkish Army would with the Turkish leader over the security, sovereignty, inde- Iman Zayat Tthen often resort to drastic likely overwhelm the small his intention to purchase Rus- pendence, maritime rights and measures to divert the public’s Greek Cypriot force would be sian S-400 missile defence benefits of Turkey,” Turkish Deputy Managing Editor attention and boost their a convenient diversion from systems. In Washington, the Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and Online Editor standing. challenges to his authoritarian Pentagon has voiced deep said. “We take all necessary Mamoon Alabbasi In Turkey’ s case, where rule. concern over the sale of F-35 measures to protect the rights President Recep Tayyip Er- Revisiting Cyprus militar- fighter jets that Turkey has and the law of our country in Senior Editor dogan’s popularity has been ily could help Erdogan boost ordered. the Aegean, the Eastern Med- John Hendel gradually on the decline for his fortunes, he might think, Officials at the Penta- iterranean and Cyprus.” several months, there is cred- but it would cause him more gon worry that while Erdogan has In diverting Turkey’s Chief Copy Editor ible fear among Middle East headaches than he knows with installing the S-400 gone out on so many foreign policy from Richard Pretorius observers that he may be look- neighbours, including Egypt the Russians will pick limbs, especially in that established by Copy Editors ing at intervention in Cyprus and Israel not to mention up intelligence on foreign policy, that Mustafa Kemal, aka for the reasons stated above. the European Union and the the new US warplane Ataturk, Erdogan he has lost much of Stephen Quillen The last time Turkey “in- United States. that the United States is shifting tectonic Kyle Arensdorf tervened” in Cyprus was in Greece would almost cer- would much rather the glitter he geopolitical plates, July 1974. The Turkish Army tainly jump in to protect the they did not. previously wore like possibly redrawing the East/West Section Editor occupied 40% of the island Greek part of the island, possi- Looking forward, the a crown. Middle East map — or Mahmud el-Shafey (London) and continues to do so, even bly escalating the conflict into Greeks and especially the at least parts of it — as set though it maintains that the a major conflagration between Greek Cypriots fear a replay by the Sykes-Picot Agree- Gulf Section Editor military action was an “inter- two NATO members. of the 1974 “intervention.” Ex- ment. Mohammed Alkhereiji vention” to protect the island’s Facing a severe economic cept that, this time, the plausi- As for Cyprus, it may have Turkish population and balks crisis at home, Erdogan may bility of the conflict spreading thought it was safe being part Society and Travel at the mere mention of “oc- be tempted to go after the quickly from the Middle East of the European Union. It was, Sections Editor cupation.” maritime oil fields recently to Europe and beyond is much until the Middle East caught up Samar Kadi In his domestic outlook discovered off the coasts of higher. All sides have better with it. for Turkey, as in his foreign Israel, Lebanon and Cyprus, of and bigger weapons and are policies and military undertak- which Turkey has tried to lay not afraid to use them. Claude Salhani is a regular Senior Correspondents ings, Erdogan has gone out on partial claim. Turkey has been escalating columnist for The Arab Weekly so many limbs, especially in The Turkish president might tensions by combining this and a senior fellow with the Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) foreign policy, that he has lost think this could offer a quick with a major naval exercise Institute of World Affairs in Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) much of the glitter he previ- solution to his rising domestic involving more than 130 ships Washington. Kelly Kennedy (Washington)

Regular Columnists Rashmee Roshan Lall Keeping Iraq off the regional fire Claude Salhani Yavuz Baydar Majid al-Samarrai Tehran cannot manoeuvre or negotiate. It has no deterrent power and Correspondents cannot bear the sanctions against it for long. Nazli Tarzi (London) Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) plethora of enemy of the Iraqi people.” the ruling classes to give the US forces did not need to enter Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Iraqi official and Former Iraqi Prime Minister impression that Iraq can be the Gulf, as they have done popular voices Nuri al-Maliki was clearer in engaged in political projects now. The rocket strikes killed Chief Designer have been calling his support of Iran. He rejected beyond its borders. dozens of people and destroyed Marwen el-Hmedi for restraint and neutrality because “the lan- The purpose of stoking fear important strategic locations in the avoidance of guage of neutrality is no longer of US military strikes against Baghdad. Designers armedA conflict between Wash- acceptable. Our position Iran is not to the benefit of Russia and other friends Ibrahim Ben Bechir ington and Tehran because rejects the party that wants Iraq. The war, if it happens, of Iraq did not lift a finger in Hanen Jebali Iraq, by virtue of its location, neutrality.” would necessarily be limited. Iraq’s aid. The Iranian regime would be the battlefield if it “If war takes place, we will This fear mongering is an did not stand by Iraq, either. happens. side with Iran against Ameri- illusionary trick by Iran seek- On the contrary, it was pleased High-level and sovereign de- ca,” officials from the Popular ing to alter parameters of the with the outcome. None of the Contact editor at: cision making in Iraq is not the Mobilisation Forces said. conflict with Washington by Iranian political forces dared to product of one single source. Statements by Iraqi Foreign exaggerating the role of its call for standing by Iraq against [email protected] Various parties and political Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari proxies, just like Iranian mili- the United States. forces have contrasting posi- during a meeting with Iranian tary forces exaggerated when If today Washington decides tions but those dominating Foreign Minister Mohammad they said they were capable of to respond to Iranian provoca- the government and loyal to Javad Zarif in Baghdad were destroying US Navy ships in tions with targeted strikes, Iran dither when taking posi- even more remarkable. He the Gulf. what is Iraq’s business with Al Arab Publishing House tions until they get Tehran’s clearly announced that his The reading of the that? Why should Iraq be Quadrant Building approval. government stands by Iran. reality of tensions Instead of calls dragged into this conflict? 177-179 Hammersmith Road Tehran trusts that its strong- All Shia forces in Iraq sup- does not indicate against the war, why Shoving Iraq in the London W6 8BS est chips against Washington port the Iranian regime in the outbreak of a don’t you reach an conflict is premedi- are its vassals in the Iraqi the media. Some of those large-scale war that independent Iraqi tated and intended to power structure and in Leba- proclaiming the banner of the would involve Iraq position distancing confuse the situation non and Yemen, whom it uses “Shia Islamic Resistance” do and the region. No Iraq from the conflict at political and logisti- Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 as pawns in its grandstanding not hesitate to provoke US one expects such and keeping the fire cal levels. game of muscle flexing and forces and interests in Iraq. an initiative from out of Iraq? Despite its claims of subversive sabotage. This The message of the rocket US President Donald “divine” capabilities, Iran treasure of “reigning over fired near the US Embassy in Trump. What is expected is incapable of standing up Iraq” was gifted by the United Baghdad is proof of this. after any provocation could to American power. It is in an US Publisher: States to those who claim However, the three Iraqi be surgical US strikes against embarrassing corner and hopes The Arab Weekly USA LLC. enmity towards Uncle Sam, presidencies agree on the need selected Iranian targets. Washington will remove some an enmity that requires much to spare the country the dan- In this case, what has Iraq of its restrictions. [email protected] evidence to be credible. gers of war through a policy got to do with the whole thing, Tehran cannot manoeuvre or [email protected] At this critical stage, Tehran they dubbed “appeasement,” unless Iranian fingers inside negotiate. It has no deterrent has asked its allies to gear their which did not reach the level Iraq target US forces and power and cannot bear the Tel: 248-679-6624 media cadences towards the of mediation because they are bases? sanctions against it for long. United States under the slogan aware of their size in the eyes The problem then resides in Therefore, it instructed its allies of “rejecting the war.” This of Washington. the Iraqi political reality that to exaggerate the state of war was the line of conduct of fac- It is perhaps ironic that, enabled factions loyal to Iran and its risks to the region. To tions in the al-Fath bloc, which even in this diplomatic playing to play roles in support of the support its claims, it provided is headed by Hadi al-Amiri. field that is supposed to be Iranian military effort and to examples of those risks through Amiri commented on firing under the exclusive conduct keep silent about such roles. sabotage operations in the wa- Subscription & Advertising: of a rocket into the vicinity of of the prime minister and the In 1998, the United States, ters of the United Arab Emirates [email protected] the US Embassy in Baghdad by foreign ministry, media calls under President Bill Clinton, and in Saudi Arabia. Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 saying: “Whoever is trying to by pro-Iranian members of launched a large missile There is still a question to be ignite war from Iraq is either parliament demanded they campaign against Iraq, cit- directed at the Iraqi political ignorant or an agent.” be represented in mediation ing the government’s lack of class: Instead of calls against Mohamed Al Mufti Muqtada al-Sadr insists on delegations. cooperation with the weapons the war, why don’t you reach an Marketing & Advertising his populist positions. “War Iraqi President Barham inspection committees for the independent Iraqi position dis- Manager between Iran and America Salih initiated external reason for the attack. tancing Iraq from the conflict will spell the end of Iraq,” he diplomatic activity as head Hundreds of Tomahawk and keeping the fire out of Iraq? Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 said. “Any party trying to drag of state. Such activities may missiles, fired from warships www.alarab.co.uk Iraq in this war and transform be well-intentioned but are in the Red Sea, landed on Majid al-Samarrai is an Iraqi it into a battleground is an a propagandistic attempt by Baghdad and other Iraqi cities. writer. 8 June 2, 2019 News & Analysis Egypt Extradited militant may provide Egypt with intelligence trove

Amr Emam vide the authorities with informa- tion about everything in relation to these organisations, from financing Cairo to recruitment methods, hideouts and sponsors.” gypt’s war on terror re- Ashmawy, 41, was fired from the ceived a boost following the military in 2009 because of his radi- handover of militant Hes- cal ideas. In 2012, he headed to Si- E ham Ashmawy, a former nai where he allegedly formed a ter- Egyptian Army officer, from the rorist group that swore allegiance Libyan National Army. to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al- Ashmawy, one the most wanted Baghdadi. A year later, he travelled Egyptian militants, threatened the to Turkey and Syria. security of both Egypt and Libya Ashmawy was accused of mas- and planned to form a terror net- terminding an attempt on the life work across North Africa and the of former Egyptian Interior Min- Sahel and Sahara region, authori- ister Mohamed Ibrahim. In July ties said. 2014, Egyptian authorities accused Ashmawy’s arrival in Cairo inter- him of attacking an army post in rupted most Egyptian TV channels the Western Desert near the border with footage shown of him hand- with Libya. Twenty-eight officers cuffed and blindfolded. By show- and conscripts were killed in the at- ing Ashmawy’s arrival in Cairo, tack. Egyptian officials likely wanted to He’s also accused of attacking the demonstrate that it is holding those Dakahlia Security Directorate in the suspected of committing crimes ac- Nile Delta in December 2013, partic- countable, regardless of where they ipating in the assassination of Pros- are. ecutor-General Hesham Barakat in June 2015 and attacking a bus car- Egyptian authorities will rying Christian pilgrims in the West- be especially interested ern Desert in November 2018. Ashmawy went to Libya in 2017 learning from Ashmawy where he was said to have formed A big catch. An image grab shows Hesham Ashmawy (C), one of the country’s most-wanted militants, being how arms are smuggled al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, includ- escorted by members from Egypt’s intelligence service aboard a military aircraft, May 29. (Al-Masriya) from Libya into the ing Ansar al-Islam and al-Mourabi- Western Desert and toun. Such groups infiltrated Egypt terrorism, security analysts said. ism financing and state sponsors of of the Muammar Qaddafi regime in Sinai. from Libya and ambushed security “He is linked to a large number terrorist organisations in Egypt and 2011. personnel in the Western Desert. of terrorist organisations and has Libya. “This shows the importance Egypt described Ashmawy’s Ashmawy was arrested in the a lot of information,” said Tamer Ashmawy’s handover showed of security coordination between handover as a major security vic- eastern Libyan city of Derna by the al-Shahawi, a retired intelligence of- growing coordination between Egypt and the LNA,” retired police tory. Security analysts in Cairo said Libyan National Army (LNA) last ficer and a member of the Egyptian Egypt and the LNA, which controls general Farouk Megrahi said. he could be a treasure trove of in- October and has been under inter- parliament. much of eastern and southern Lib- Ashmawy, security analysts formation about terrorist groups in rogation by eastern Libya’s authori- Egyptian authorities will be es- ya and is conducting a campaign to said, used to liaise between terror- Libya and Egypt. ties. pecially interested learning from gain control of Tripoli. ist groups in Libya and others in “This is the one terrorist who has Libyan authorities, security ana- Ashmawy how arms are smuggled Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist or- other North African countries and valuable information about terror- lysts said, were keen to get informa- from Libya into the Western Desert ganisations commanded by Ash- in Sahel and Sahara states. ist organisations active in the two tion from Ashmawy about terrorist and Sinai, security analysts said. mawy were among the groups ac- countries,” said political analyst organisations in Libya, which could They added that authorities will be tive in Libya, a country that has Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly Abdel Monem Halawa. “He can pro- prove vital in Egypt’s fight against seeking information about terror- been in turmoil since the downfall contributor in Cairo. Visit of Sudan’s military ruler to Egypt opens new chapter in relations

Amr Emam with al-Bashir’s Islamist regime Common and its foreign policy line. interests. Al-Bashir often played Egypt Egyptian Cairo against its regional adversaries, President Turkey and Qatar, and backed con- Abdel Fattah bdel Fattah al-Burhan struction of the Grand Ethiopian al-Sisi (R) choosing Egypt as the Renaissance Dam, which would meets with first country to visit since deprive Egypt of a sizeable amount Lieutenant- A he took over as the head of water it gets from the Nile. General Abdel of Sudan’s Transitional Military The door now seems open for a Fattah al- Council showed a strong desire to new era in relations between the Burhan, chief open a new chapter in relations neighbouring countries with the of Sudan’s with Cairo, analysts said. TMC showing interest in closer co- ruling military “This is especially true with ordination with Egypt. council, Egypt being an active player in the Egypt has many interests in Su- in Cairo, Arab and African regions,” said dan, analysts said. Unrest in Khar- May 25. Amira Abdel Halim, an African af- toum put pressure on decision- (Egyptian fairs specialist at Egyptian think- makers in Cairo. There are fears Presidency) tank Ahram Centre for Political that an unstable Sudan would and Strategic Studies. “Egypt has a compound security issues for lot to offer Sudan to help it get over Egypt. the problems of its transition.” “Stability in Sudan, which Burhan, who visited Egypt May shares an extended border with 25, is the most senior Sudanese of- Egypt, is very important for securi- ficial to arrive in Cairo since the ty here,” said Mohamed al-Shazly, downfall of Omar al-Bashir’s re- a former Egyptian ambassador to gime April 11. Sudan. Burhan’s trip to Egypt came as The border between the two “The two countries need to Egypt looks at potential Turk- small details in the larger picture negotiations between the Transi- countries is a hotspot for smug- cooperate on this, given that the ish presence in the island, near of Sudan’s co-option of Egypt, the tional Military Council (TMC) and gling arms and people, which is Brotherhood in both countries is at the southern entrance of the Red United Arab Emirates and Saudi revolutionaries who brought al- why Egypt intensified security its weakest now,” Shazly said. Sea, with suspicion. However, al- Arabia, analysts said. Bashir down stumbled on priori- in the area. Before al-Bashir was Egypt wants to ensure that Tur- Bashir’s downfall threw the Suakin Egypt was the first leg in a ties. The TMC also accused some brought down, his administration key and Qatar will not have lever- Island deal into uncertainty. foreign tour by Burhan that in- revolutionary groups of being sup- agreed with Cairo on organising age in Sudan in the post al-Bashir Whether fledgeling understand- cluded the United Arab Emirates. ported by foreign powers. joint border patrols. era. Egypt, Sisi said, is ready to sup- ings between Cairo and the inter- Two days before Burhan arrived Egyptian President Abdel Fat- Burhan reportedly agreed with port Sudan so it can meet the chal- im administration in Sudan will in Cairo, TMC Deputy Chairman tah al-Sisi told Burhan that he fol- Sisi on beefing up security on the lenges of the current phase, away survive Sudan’s expected transi- Mohamed Hamdan visited Saudi lowed developments in Sudan border and handing over Islamist from any foreign interference. tion will be decided in the coming Arabia and met with Saudi Crown closely and that Egypt was ready fugitives wanted in Cairo, another Beneath Egypt’s fears that re- weeks, analysts said. Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin to offer whatever support needed area of potential cooperation be- gional rivals would influence There are still hang-ups in the Abdulaziz. to help Sudan overcome the diffi- tween Cairo and Khartoum. events in Sudan is its belief that relationship between the two “Sudan demonstrates a com- culties it faced. Egypt, which has its own battle the attempts aim to harm Egypt’s countries, including a dispute over mitment to this bloc of Arab mod- “Egypt backs the free will of against the Muslim Brotherhood, national security, analysts said. the border territory of Halayeb erates,” said Ahmed Abdel Dayem, the Sudanese people and its desire does not want to see Sudan be- At the heart of the fears is a De- and Shalateen. Egypt and Sudan a professor of African relations at to formulate Sudan’s future,” Sisi come a haven for Muslim Brother- cember 2017 agreement between also need to formulate a common the College of Higher African Stud- said. hood operatives. Some members al-Bashir and Turkish President stance on their shared benefits and ies at Cairo University. “This shows Cairo and Khartoum struggled escaped to Sudan after the down- Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkish problems emanating from Ethio- that the new administration in the to see eye to eye in the past and fall of the Muslim Brotherhood re- control over the Sudanese Red Sea pia’s dam, they added. country is keen on taking sides ideological differences existed gime of Muhammad Morsi in 2013. Island of Suakin. Still, the understandings are with common interests.” June 2, 2019 9 News & Analysis Interview Naguib Sawiris talks about revolution, democracy and Islamism

that he became involved in politics because he was afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood, Zouheir Latif which had sought to seize power following the January 25 revolution. aguib Sawiris Sawiris said: “All issues in is an Egyptian business put you face-to-face businessman with two choices: profit or loss. and politician In politics there can be more with a fortune than one right opinion.” worth more “For example, we had asked than $3 to postpone the elections until billion.N He ranks 577th among the liberal current had time to the world’s richest people. His organise itself structurally and comments raise controversy better train its cadres for the and his investments attract elections but the army rejected attention of investors and that and elections were organ- governments. ised in six months,” he said. Sawiris has founded many “The result was the disintegra- companies and television tion of the liberal movement. channels and is politically This is the problem that you’re active in post-revolution Egypt. going to face in Tunisia during Most of his investments are in the coming phase.” the telecommunications and Tunisia is preparing for media sectors. He is the founder legislative and presidential of El Gouna Film Festival. He elections late this year. The once offered to buy an island off results of the vote can affect the the Mediterranean coast and investment climate. allocate it to Syrian immigrants. “If the Islamic current wins, The Arab Weekly spoke with investors will be frightened Sawiris during the Cannes Film away, especially that tourism is Festival, beginning the conver- a component of the Tunisian sation with the “Arab spring.” state,” Sawiris said. “Tourism Sawiris said the movement was means freedom, not the not totally successful but that freedom to sin as some claim, does not mean that it was not but by ‘freedom,’ it is meant the needed, that it was a mistake or rights and natural freedoms of that it was, as some govern- individuals to conduct their ments claim, the result of lives as they deem fit, without foreign plots. interference or pressure.” The biggest mistake of the “Tunisia is a country (whose “Arab spring” was to link economy) is based mainly on religion and politics, he said. the tourism industry,” contin- It did not succeed for several ued Sawiris. “If the (Islamist) reasons, including the failure of movement wins the elections, it the liberal and secular forces to will be difficult for anyone to unite. That was the case in invest or build a hotel in Egypt where independent Tunisia, let alone forget the liberal secular formations, terrorist attacks of Sousse and A dissection of regional woes. Egyptian businessman and politician Naguib Sawiris. (Twitter) harassed by the regime and the other terrorist threats, all of lacking experience, failed to which are likely to be on the He said the Tunisian experi- He added that the first step is keeping the continent economi- constitute a unified front to minds of tourists and investors ence is much better than to address violent discourse and cally open. This effort is led by oppose the Islamic current and alike.” Egypt’s and that measures then to reform education, Rwanda, the weakest country. the Muslim Brotherhood. Sawiris said the Tunisian taken after the Tunisian create real job opportunities for Thanks to it, Africa will proceed Sawiris sparked controversy experience remains a distinct revolution were better than young people and fill their time on this way forward while we in Egypt because he criticised example. The appointment of Egypt’s. He said the Ennahda with useful activities, such as Arabs still do not know what to ties of some Islamic forces to Rene Trabelsi, a Tunisian Jew, Movement in Tunisia learnt the art, sports and culture. do and do nothing but talk.” extremism. as minister of tourism, attests lesson of the Muslim Brother- Sawiris pointed out that there He said it is the responsibility “It isn’t me who links them to the fact that nationality in hood’s experience in Egypt, was an entire paradigm that of Arab business leaders to (to extremism). They are the Tunisia supersedes religious retreated a bit after the fall of needed to be overcome if the strengthen foundations of ones who linked themselves,” affiliation. the Morsi regime in Egypt and violence, regression and failure education and sound intellec- said Sawiris. “The organisation Sawiris said all citizens decided there was no alterna- in the Arab world were to end. tual thinking and give the next is named the Muslim Brother- should have a degree of aware- tive but dialogue. He said what Arab business- generations an opportunity for hood and, under the cloak of ness of the importance of the Sawiris talked about the men do for future generations is real education, even if that this name, everything that has country’s interests so they can Coptic Church the same way he not sufficient and that they lag means sending them abroad nothing to do with Islam, such achieve better educational and spoke about Islamist currents behind their Western counter- under the condition that they as killing, bombing and assas- health standards and jobs can — that is its need to stay distant parts. There are a few Arab would later return home. sinations of political figures, is be created to move forward from politics. “The Coptic businessmen who play this kind Sawiris owns shares in the being perpetrated.” with their country and preserve Church in Egypt can influence of role, he said Tunisian television channel Egypt’s revolution was the democratic experience. the political positions of the Sawiris criticised the heavy Nessma TV and founded Egypt’s launched by liberal left-wing Some say Tunisia, Libya and Coptic citizen,” he said. “This is bureaucracy in Arab countries. ONTV television channel. secular forces that were then Egypt, countries that experi- wrong. The church must stay That allows officials to act as “I had an experience estab- joined by the independent enced the “Arab spring,” are at away from politics.” though they are doing potential lishing a TV channel in Egypt Egyptian liberal right. The an early stage of political educa- Some say that the end of investors favours when they and it was a great success,” he Muslim Brotherhood came tion and that they had not seen armed radicalism of Islamists provide investment opportuni- said. “I founded the channel on-board much later, when the freedom for nearly 60 years. could usher in a new era for ties or when they solve prob- due to my fears of the Muslim revolutionary momentum Sawiris, however, said those Arab peoples but Sawiris said lems or issues related to Brotherhood’s grip on power in succeeded. The Brotherhood arguments are a pretext to the crisis will continue as long investments when, in reality, it Egypt. There had to be a liberal had hesitated to take part in the pre-empt democracy. as violence and killings are is the investors who provide a current to counterbalance them demonstrations of January 25, “We always need to start with justified through Quranic service, creating opportunities, and this current needed a media 2011, because of an agreement it the first step and we have to scripture and young people increasing the size of the platform and a channel like had with authorities. make mistakes,” he said. continue to be misled. country’s labour force and ONTV, which is indeed a liberal Sawiris said Egyptian capital- “There were mistakes made paying taxes. platform and I’m proud of it.” ists are not keen on taking risks. during the experience of the Sawiris’ investments in Despite ONTV’s success, He pointed out that the first January 25 revolution but, “The organisation is Algeria generated controversy businesspeople do not recom- ones to take to the streets in when our democratic duty calls, and the matter is in the courts mend investing in media Egypt were supporters of the we all become in the first grade named the Muslim but the political transformation because “it will be a difficult Kefaya movement, which is a of the democracy school and we Brotherhood and, in Algeria could change the and financially failing project liberal socialist secular move- have to move forward. The under the cloak of this situation for the better, he said. that will create many enmities,” ment. West, for example, reached full Sawiris said the lack of Sawiris said. Kefaya’s members protested democracy after more than a name, everything that cooperation is the Arab world’s Sawiris said: “Investing in at a very difficult time and were thousand years of wars. has nothing to do with Achilles heel in forming a media is not a problem but, attacked. They were followed Therefore, we have to start from common Arab market. He when you invest in the media, by supporters of the April 6 the beginning and to be pre- Islam, such as killing, praised the European experi- you have to work in an organ- Youth Movement, before it was pared not be ashamed of that.” bombing and ence and the developments in ised fashion while avoiding taken over by the Muslim Regarding Islamist move- assassinations of the African continent. “The clashing with the state. The Brotherhood. That’s when ments’ expression of willing- Africans have also succeeded. state also must not take over Egyptian workers, farmers and ness to engage in the demo- political figures, is There are five economic groups every channel and then ask businessmen joined the cratic process, separate religion being perpetrated.” in Africa that have abolished investors to compete because demonstrations. from politics and embrace civil customs, tax and other barri- this competition would be In 2011, Sawiris participated action in their political activity, ers,” he said. unfair.” in the establishment of the Free Sawiris said: “The problem is Egyptian businessman “Today there is an African Egyptians Party, which has a that they do not do what they Naguib Sawiris supra-regional grouping with Zouheir Latif is a Tunisian liberal platform. He declared say they do.” these five African groups journalist. 10 June 2, 2019 News & Analysis Libya

LNA’s anti-Islamist forces press ahead with Tripoli offensive

Lamine Ghanmi trol of the Salah al-Din area, a few kilometres from downtown Tripoli, following intensified clashes. Tunis “This is Salah al-Din. We will be soon in the centre of Tripoli,” shout- ibyan forces led by Field- ed an LNA’s soldier as he fired from Marshal Khalifa Haftar a machine gun mounted to the back quickened their advance of a vehicle. Soldiers armed with L towards Tripoli’s centre, in- rocket launchers and machine guns tensifying their offensive against Is- advanced alongside as a tank ma- lamist militias and extremist groups noeuvred nearby. that back the Tripoli-based govern- Saraj al-Majbri, an aide to the ment of Fayez al-Sarraj. LNA’s chief of staff, said in a state- Haftar’s Libyan National Army ment that Haftar’s forces made (LNA) forces pushed to within a few gains in the battle and controlled kilometres of the centre of Tripoli Salah al-Din. after the field-marshal vowed not LNA’s forces began their offensive to stop the campaign until he was in April 4. Libya plunged into violence control of the capital. amid a power vacuum since 2011 The refusal of any ceasefire by the when NATO-backed Islamist rebels two camps heightened worries by overthrew long-time leader Muam- the United Nations, neighbouring mar Qaddafi. countries and foreign powers. Libya is divided between Haftar, Haftar said he saw no need for a whose LNA forces control eastern ceasefire because the LNA’s offen- Libya and much of the south of the sive will end, in his view, with the country, and Sarraj who runs the militias’ surrender, a rebuttal to Sar- UN-supported government in Trip- raj, who conditioned a ceasefire on oli with Islamist militias and jihadist Final push. Libyan National Army members head out of Benghazi to reinforce troops advancing towards the LNA’s troops “returning from groups providing support. Tripoli, last April. (Reuters) where they came.” The battle for Tripoli is a break with a pattern of the Libyan conflict ceasefire.” Egyptian General Intelligence Ser- The battle for Tripoli is a since the Islamists backed by Qatar Airport, which has been closed for and Turkey defeated nationalist and about two years. The United States and Egypt, both vice Director General Abbas Kamel break with a pattern of the nascent secularist forces in 2014. Haftar has said the militias control perceived as backers of Haftar, on on developments in Tripoli, Libyan Libyan conflict since the Since then the conflict was largely Sarraj’s government, which makes May 28 called for calm as the LNA media reported. Islamists backed by Qatar contained to small areas. Prolonged dialogue to advance the UN-backed stepped up its offensive. “I’m not a prophet of doom but and Turkey defeated battles later caused massive damage political process meaningless. The fighting in Tripoli has claimed the violence on the outskirts of nationalist and nascent to Benghazi, Derna and Sirte. Most “In the last round of negotiations, the lives of more than 500 people Tripoli is only the beginning of long secularist forces in 2014. of the country, including Tripoli, I realised that it’s not [Sarraj] who and driven more than 75,000 from and bloody war on the shore of the had been spared large-scale fight- decides,” Haftar told French news- their homes, the World Health Or- Mediterranean that will expose the Libya’s neighbours worry an es- ing. paper Le Journal du Dimanche after ganisation said. security of direct neighbours and calation of Tripoli’s fighting could However, the sight of homes re- talks May 26 in Paris with French US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo the broader Mediterranean region trigger confrontations across the duced to rubble on the outskirts of President Emmanuel Macron. discussed the situation in Libya dur- to the danger,” said UN Envoy Ghas- country that could cause mass dis- Tripoli after an air strike May 28, an “Of course, a political solution re- ing a telephone conversation with san Salame. placement of the population, waves attack blamed on warplanes backing mains the objective but to get back Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh He warned that the realignment of illegal migrants to Europe and an the Islamist militias, prompted fears to politics we have to finish with the Shoukry, the US State Department of rival forces across the Libyan di- expansion of Islamic State and al- of more destruction in Tripoli and militias,” added Haftar. said. Pompeo and Shoukry saw an vide to focus on the battle in Tripoli Qaeda activities in the region. elsewhere if the fighting continued In response to calls from Tunisia, “urgent need to achieve a political would create “a security vacuum After a lull in the fighting during to escalate. Algeria and Egypt for a truce, Haf- solution in Libya and prevent fur- which will be taken advantage of by much of Ramadan, statements by Tripoli residents said heavy bat- tar affirmed that “the solution in ther escalation,” State Department [the Islamic State] and al-Qaeda.” LNA’s spokesmen and video on so- tles took place along a road linking Tripoli lies in restoring peace and spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said. cial media purported to show LNA’s the capital with the airport. The security. If the militias give up their Following the discussion between Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly forces making gains by taking con- LNA controls Tripoli International weapons, there will be no need for a Pompeo and Shoukry, Haftar briefed correspondent in Tunis.

Viewpoint Increasingly blatant Turkish involvement in Libya’s conflict raises questions

of military equipment being backing Islamist groups in the went to Istanbul. are going to be invested in supplied to one side or the other country fighting for the GNA in Ankara’s policy is more than economic and infrastructural in Libya by foreign countries — southern Tripoli, although in ideological. It is also political, reconstruction. It is a massive Michel Cousins Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, their case the primary motiva- military and, perhaps most potential market from which Russia and others have been tion is to hit at the LNA rather important, economic. Turkey cannot afford to be mentioned. than support the Sarraj troops. The days of Turkish President excluded. he release of a video of In January, more than 20,000 Evidence of the latter has Recep Tayyip Erdogan being That, however, is what Libyans being shown Turkey-made handguns were always been circumstantial. Over feted across the Arab world are members of Libya’s House of how to use military discovered in a container behind the past five years, fighters long gone, his pan-Ottoman Representatives (HoR), the LNA equipment by Turkish- boxes of children’s toys in shifting between Libya and Syria policy aimed at reasserting and the internationally unrecog- speaking trainers Misrata port. The previous have done so via Turkey without Turkish influence across the nised but HoR-appointed Thinni fuelled an already polar- month, some 3,000 Turkey-made impediment, militants wounded Middle East shattered because of administration in Beida want. Tised debate about the involvement handguns and more than 2 in fighting against the LNA in his determined support for the There are regular calls from of Turkey in Libya’s strife. million rounds of ammunition Benghazi and Derna have been Muslim Brotherhood. HoR members for relations with The video, released May 28 by were found in containers treated in Turkish hospitals, All other former close links are Turkey to be severed and for the the Libyan National Army’s unloaded at the port of Khoms, anti-LNA Libyan media made gone, most recently the al-Bashir international community to media office, purportedly east of Tripoli. The containers Istanbul their base, so too have regime in Khartoum. The new sanction Turkey if Ankara was showed Libyans being trained to had arrived on a ship that sailed numerous Libyan hardliners. head of Sudan’s military, Abdel found to have broken the arms use military equipment and from Mersin, Turkey. In Febru- Last October, when militia Fattah al-Burhan, is seen as being embargo. It seems inevitable voices speaking Turkish can be ary, nine military vehicles were leader Haithem Tajouri returned much closer to Egypt, Saudi that, if the LNA wins the battle heard. found at the same port, sus- to Tripoli after a stay in the Arabia and the United Arab for Tripoli and the GNA is The recording, on a mobile pected of having been imported United Arab Emirates, he told his Emirates. The only serious allies toppled, relations will be cut and phone of a fighter reportedly from Turkey. commanders that he was fully left for Ankara now are Qatar and Turkish-Libyan trade cease. That captured by the Libyan National There have been reports of working with the GNA Presi- the Sarraj government in Tripoli. would be a massive blow to Army (LNA), was presented as Turkey supplying combat drones dency Council’s Interior Minister Historically, links between Erdogan. evidence that Turkish officers are to the forces loyal to the GNA. Fathi Bashagha, and there was a Turkey and Libya have been close The Turkish economy espe- in Tripoli training forces of the In none of those cases was possibility, if talks between Sarraj and economic ties are even cially needs the Libyan market. Government of National Accord there evidence of official Turkish and LNA Field-Marshal Khalifa stronger. Although GDP expanded 1.3% in (GNA) of Prime Minister Fayez complicity in what were apparent Haftar succeeded, of Haftar Libya is a major trading partner the first quarter of 2019, the al-Sarraj. violations of the UN arms becoming commander-in-chief for Turkey. At a meeting in underlying trend is bleak and the Evidence of Turkey supplying embargo. of a united military. At least three Ankara of the Turkish-Libyan Turkish currency continued its armaments to its Libyan allies, in The delivery of the Kirpi more radical commanders — Joint Working Group in February, decline. violation of a UN arms embargo, MRAPs was different. It was the Mohammed al-Bakbak, Jalal it was reported that Turkish The GNA equally needs Turkey. was noted in mid-May when one first time that the arms embargo Weshefani and Hadi Awinat — unfinished projects in Libya were Shortly after the delivery of the of the brigades fighting against was blatantly flouted and is seen refused to accept this, quit and worth $19 billion, plus unpaid Kirpi vehicles, a GNA forces the LNA posted photos on its as indicating that Ankara no bills of Turkish companies of $1 spokesman told Qatar’s Arabi21 Facebook page of some 40 longer cares about international billion, another $1.3 billion in television that the supply of Turkish-made armoured vehicles law; apparently considering its The LNA and its damages dating to 2011 and Turkish arms would help alter being unloaded in Tripoli port. support of the GNA as more further $1.7 billion in other the military balance of power and The Kirpi II mine-resistant important. supporters, while losses. that it would enable the GNA to ambush-protected (MRAP) The LNA said a Turkish C-130 angered at Turkey’s In 2010, the year before the defeat the LNA by the end of the vehicles are made by Turkish aircraft landed May 29 at Misrata revolution, Turkey was Libya’s Eid. vehicle manufacturer BMC and Airport with Turkish military apparent biggest supplier of imports, The LNA and its supporters, had been shipped from the advisers on board. intervention, are taking 10.6% of the market share while angered at Turkey’s Turkish Black Sea port of Turkey’s backing for the GNA is equally confident and worth $1.9 billion. By 2017, apparent intervention, are Samsun. generally presented as ideologi- the last year for which figures are equally confident Turkish arms The May 28 video is said to cal that in collaboration with Turkish arms will available, they were down to will make no difference and that show Turkish officers instructed Qatar it is supporting the Muslim make no difference $879 million, although still much it will win the battle for Tripoli. pro-GNA fighters on the use of Brotherhood across the Arab the same market share, 11%. the vehicles. world but more specifically in and that it will win In a peaceful Libya, tens if not Michel Cousins is a contributor to There have been many reports Libya. It is also accused of the battle for Tripoli. hundreds of billions of dollars The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. June 2, 2019 11 News & Analysis Maghreb Tunisia’s fractured secularists scramble to consolidate ranks

Lamine Ghanmi at restoring political stability in the country and forming a government able to undertake reforms in the Tunis country,” said Marzouk, “including changing the political system while unisia’s secularist parties helping the grouping of centrist and are struggling to overcome progressive forces.” deep-seated divisions Machrouu Tounes has reportedly T ahead of presidential and talked with Al Badil Ettounsi, a fac- parliamentary elections late this tion headed by former Prime Minis- year. ter Mehdi Jomaa. With the country mired in an eco- Chahed’s supporters launched nomic crisis, compounded by gov- their own movement — Tahya ernment instability, Tunisia’s secu- Tounes — which signed a unifica- larist forces are split. tion deal with Al Moubadara, head- Nidaa Tounes, the country’s lead- ed by Kamel Morjane, a minister ing secularist party that took control in Chahed’s cabinet and a foreign of the presidency and parliament in minister during the Ben Ali regime. 2014, is especially fractured. The Al Moubadara includes top fig- party split into offshoots and diver- ures of the former ruling Demo- gent wings that have few concrete cratic Constitutional Rally and has achievements or policy objectives a significant influence in the Sahel to put before voters. region. It tries to position itself as Many former top Nidaa Tounes the party of “Destourians” — sym- members, including Tunisian Prime pathisers of the post-independent Minister Youssef Chahed and for- ruling party who are willing to ac- mer party Executive Committee cept Islamists as part of the demo- member Mohsen Marzouk, left the cratic process, unlike Abir Moussi’s party to pursue their own political Destourian Liberal Party. paths. Tahya Tounes is widely described as “Chahed’s party” but the prime minister, a secularist who broke With the country mired from Nidaa Tounes last year after in an economic crisis, a bitter dispute with Hafedh Caid compounded by Essebsi, could lose his position as government instability, head of government if he fails to Tunisia’s secularist retain support from the Islamist En- forces are split. nahda Movement. Ennahda, which has the largest Too divided to win? Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed speaks during a meeting of Tahya Marzouk, a former top aide to bloc in parliament, thwarted Nidaa Tounes party in Tunis, May 1. (Reuters) Tunisian President Beji Caid Es- Tounes’s efforts to remove Chahed sebsi, heads Machrouu Tounes, a as prime minister. break off from Nidaa Tounes that Ennahda official Rafik Abdes- Tounes has sought to include Tahya backers of Nidaa. The latest opinion country in the past five years and includes centre-right and centre- salem said: “Chahed could be a Tounes in its coalition. polls showed two-thirds of these what guarantees they offer of not left factions. The movement has presidential candidate for Ennah- Political writer Hassan Ayadi said supporters angry with Nidaa and repeating the same mistakes,” said stepped up efforts to bring in other da,” indicating a possible alliance those in favour of unifying “the ri- have intentions of not voting for political analyst Zied Krichene. secularist factions, including Nidaa of convenience that would bolster val factions that emerged from the Nidaa in the upcoming vote.” Other political observers said, Tounes’s “Hammamet wing.” Chahed’s chances in elections. old fold of Nidaa to recreate the his- Analysts said attempts to rebrand “political opportunism” was threat- The Hammamet faction is led by However, Beji Caid Essebsi has torical Nidaa seek to pull out a sur- a party that has spent years em- ening the secularist camp. Soufiene Toubal, who fell out with also indicated a willingness to re- prise victory in the upcoming elec- broiled in internal disputes while “I saw a lot of opportunists who Hafedh Caid Essebsi, the presi- turn Chahed to the Nidaa Tounes tions like the one Nidaa achieved in the country dealt with unprece- claim to belong to Tahya Tounes but dent’s son and Nidaa Tounes’s ex- fold, advising supporters to reach 2014.” dented social and economic crises when they do not achieve their own ecutive director, after the party’s out to the prime minister to reunify “To attain (this goal),” he added, would be a great challenge. interests they walk away from… the convention in May. the party. “they have to convince and win “What is most important is to tell party,” said Hatem El Euchi, a lead- “This unification initiative aims There is also word that Machrouu back the support of the former people what they have done to the ing figure in Tahya Tounes. Divisions grip Morocco’s leading opposition party

Saad Guerraoui Movement for All Democrats when litical one on the basis of a particu- all the measures had been taken lar ideology because of the party’s to implement this initiative,” said components whose interests dif- Casablanca Benchamach in a statement pub- fer,” said Ezzahri. lished on the party’s website. Some PAM members accused orocco’s leading oppo- “He was also involved in sowing Benchamach of taking unilateral sition Authenticity and division, fomenting tension and ac- decisions that damaged the party’s Modernity Party is fac- tively taking part in the coup against political credibility and divided M ing one of its worst cri- democratic legitimacy and the reg- the party with legislative elections ses since its inception in 2008 amid ular organising regulations of every coming in 2021. growing divisions in its leadership. self-respected party institution, as Abdellatif Ouahbi, a member of Hakim Benchamach, Authentic- happened on May 18, 2019, during PAM’s federal bureau, told Alya- ity and Modernity Party (PAM) sec- the meeting for the election of the oum24 that Benchamach “will in- retary-general, dismissed Ahmed president of the preparatory com- evitably continue to expel his op- Akchichine, president of the Mar- mittee for the party’s fourth nation- ponents to the last person” with the rakech-Safi region, for sowing divi- al congress,” he added. backing of former PAM leader Ilyass sion and amplifying tensions in the Benchamach’s decision came a El Omari. party. few days after Akchichine and 11 “Omari is doing his job… We have other members of the political bu- a long list of his contacts with the reau signed a statement rejecting party’s leading members and his Some PAM members decisions made by the party leader, pressure to create an appropri- accused Benchamach of including the dismissal of Moham- ate atmosphere for Benchamach taking unilateral ed Hamouti from the presidency of to eliminate his opponents,” said decisions that damaged the federal office. Ouahbi. the party’s political Fatima-Zahra Mansouri, presi- News website Hespress quoted credibility and divided dent of the party’s national coun- sources as saying that Bencha- the party with legislative cil, PAM’s highest decision-making mach’s end as party leader was only a matter of time because many elections coming in 2021. body, criticised the party’s “chaotic state” after Akchichine’s dismissal. members had switched support to “The organisational situation of Akchichine, Mansouri and Ham- Akchichine was appointed in our party has been unhealthy for a outi. January to the PAM political bureau while and has led to negative de- PAM finished second in the 2015 with a mission to lead implementa- cisions and behaviour that can in- elections with 80 seats in parlia- tion of a plan Benchamach had in- evitably lead to the collapse of the ment after the Islamist party of Jus- troduced to unite the party around party if they are not settled with tice and Development. a single project. A few months later, wisdom and maturity,” warned In the crosshairs. Hakim Benchamach, Authenticity and Experts predicted PAM would Benchamach accused Akchichine, Mansouri in a statement. Modernity Party (PAM) secretary-general. (Twitter) win fewer seats in 2021 in the po- one of the party’s founders, of fail- She blamed organisational mis- litical climate that is gripping the ing to advance the road map and takes, the race to power without divided party. acting against party reunification. awareness of the collective belong- the party into an “unenviable soap structural crisis and a crisis of iden- “Akchichine directly intervened ing to the party and the overtaking opera.” tity. Saad Guerraoui is a contributor to abort the national meeting com- of the party apparatus under cover Political analyst Hafid Ezzahri “The struggle within PAM is a to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb memorating the 11th year of the of personal calculations for sinking said that PAM was going through a personal struggle rather than a po- issues. 12 June 2, 2019 Debate Iraq Why Iraq’s Shia jihadists fear a US-Iran showdown

cooperation with the US-led Iraq war of 2003, it is highly unlikely Tallha the mullahs would be extending Abdulrazaq the tendrils of their influence and Shia extremism across the Middle East today. ran absolutely loves to make Iraqi Shia jihadist leaders such a song and a dance about as Qais Khazali, who heads the how it stands up to the Asaib Ahl al-Haq terror group, American “Great Satan.” was full of grandiose threats of Tehran will not miss an violence to Mosul’s Sunni Arab opportunity to remind the population when they were being Iworld that it stands opposed to held hostage by the Islamic State. the United States and that it is Khazali and other Iranian ready and willing to use violence proxies carried out those threats to achieve its aims and to harm US in an orgy of sectarian violence, interests in the Middle East and torture, murder and rape against beyond. a hostage civilian population. Its proxies who fight with Yet, at the mere suggestion of US money, training and arms from military power being used against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Iran, Khazali suddenly sobers Corps (IRGC) spare no expense up and turns into a peace in dedicating airtime to advocate, calling publicly how they would seek for both his masters “martyrdom” in any If Amiri is any and the White House fight against the example to go by to de-escalate be- United States. It is during the Iran-Iraq cause it would be with some surprise War, Iraqi Shia in neither side’s to Iraq observers, jihadists would interests to go to then, that these attack US interests, war. zealots are oddly Similarly, timid about the forcing a kinetic notorious Badr response from the Grandiose threats. Members of the Shia Mehdi Army militia take part in training in the southern prospect of a war Organisation leader Iraqi city of Basra. (AFP) between Iran and the White House. and former cabinet United States. minister Hadi al-Amiri Of course, despite the released a statement there is a prospect of actual sterism, robbing, raping, killing These would be the same tough talk and Dutch courage following a suspected IRGC- Americans on the battlefield, you and torturing as they please. Iran people who are the sons, daugh- the Iranians and their proxies backed rocket attack near the hang your tail between your legs? would summon the banners and ters, husbands, wives, brothers developed over a long time of be- US Embassy in Baghdad calling I would imagine that Khazali, call on old debts to these groups and sisters of countless victims ing intoxicated on their own egos, on Iraqis “not to be the fire that Amiri and others of their radical to be repaid. of Iran’s brand of Shia jihadism. those with a careful eye for events fuels this war” that would “burn ilk would all give sensible sound- If Amiri is any example to go If those people ever got power, know that, without the United everyone.” ing reasons of Iraq’s “sovereignty” by during the Iran-Iraq War, Iraqi and considering Iraqi law, Amiri States, Tehran’s proxies in Iraq Why the cold feet now, Amiri? and not wanting Iraq to be the Shia jihadists would attack US in- and Khazali can expect to follow would not be in power today. Was it not you who were exposed site of a proxy conflict between terests, forcing a kinetic response closely in Saddam’s footsteps as Former Iraqi President Saddam all over YouTube in footage show- Washington and Tehran. from the White House. It would they take the walk to the gallows Hussein had them on the run ing how you fought on the side However, the real reason why radically change US policy in Iraq, themselves. That is a fate they even when Iraq was at its weakest of Iran against your own country Iraqi Shia jihadists are absolutely forcing Washington to drop its will want to avoid at all cost. under intense US-led internation- during the Iran-Iraq War? terrified of an outbreak of con- support for the current political al sanctions that make the present Why was it exciting to scream ventional war between Iran and process and perhaps empowering Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher sanctions against Iran look like “Death to America!” as you the United States is because they those who have been marginal- at the University of Exeter’s child’s play. Without US support slaughtered and tortured Iraqis know it would be the end of their ised and on the periphery since Strategy and Security Institute in for Shia dissidents and Iranian back then but suddenly, when experiment of ruling Iraq by gang- 2003. England. Splits in Sadrist camp expose fault lines

Airport Board, was later set on fire advisers whose roles were spared appeared in videos holding a gun The temptation to explain these by protesters. — Mustafa al-Yaqoubi, Mohamad at the mall shootout, has gripped clashes with reference to al-Sadr’s Gara’awi, known locally as al-Jayashi, Hassan Ethari and local media reporting that focused anti-Iran stance has been on full Nazli Tarzi Abu Aktham, is a controversial Waleed Karimawi. on a 1-year ultimatum that al-Sadr display across English-language figure in the Sadrist trend. He Iraqi did not explain the deci- presented to Essawi. Essawi’s media. was widely accused of abuse of sion behind the choice of those name received a special men- It should not distract raqi Shia cleric Muqtada al- power during his appointment as four men but iterated that “there tion in Iraqi’s statement. onlookers from internal Sadr’s ever-changing political a member of Najaf’s local gov- will be no more aides” and quoted Al-Sadr ordered Es- If al-Sadr is party divisions and a stripes bemuse more than ernment. In 2016, Abu Aktham’s al-Sadr as having said that “I have sawi to “relinquish unable to heal flawed anti-graft they surprise onlookers. brother Bashir, who owns shares no aides or advisers who enjoy a business proceeds internal party wounds, policy in which cor- The 44-year-old populist in the mall, was threatened by favoured status.” and donate them his foreign policy ruption of some leader heads one of Iraq’s al-Sadr’s Peace Brigades militia to Sadrist MP Awad al-Awadi who to the family of approach — lauded in but not others is Itwo largest parliamentary blocs, Al pay $4,000 ransom or they would fought alongside al-Sadr’s Peace martyrs” or turn tolerated. Despite the West — will falter, Islah (the Reformers). torch the mall. Brigades, posted a video in which his back on any emphasising the similar to his attempt Reform, or at least its prom- Therefore, the dispute that he called on al-Sadr to reconsider of his business need for insti- ise that flickers throughout his rocked Najaf is not new but is his moves stating that “this is the ventures, reported to rein in the violence tutional controls slogans and speeches, has allowed rooted in old financial rivalries, second time I’m discriminated Sawt al-Iraq. of militiamen he to monitor party al-Sadr to reinvent himself as over Najaf airport and more, be- against and I have no business or Essawi is said to commands. finances, al-Sadr ap- reform-minded peace-advocate tween senior Sadrist figures. commercial interests.” have responded with pears exempt from such capable of liberating Iraq from The latest round of musi- He argued that “my only asso- the formation of the Taboun rules. Iran’s grasp. cal chairs has proven internally ciation with Essawi is that I sat on (“the Repentant”) bloc. In a statement, Iraqi issued He sets himself apart from contentious and reopened old dis- a special committee that he led in Essawi is not alone. Qus- clear warnings to corrupt individu- other heavyweights by presenting putes as the big fish get away while the past.” “I’ve earned every dinar say al-Essawi, Ali Hadu, Awad als arguing that the movement himself as the “opposition” against the smaller players take the rap. honestly,” Awadi said. al-Awadi and Imad Abu Mariam, “will stand in their way” and that a “government of the corrupt” A senior aide to al-Sadr, Saleh Al-Sadr’s rift with Kadhim must choose between business “bloody violence” will not be that he’s regularly warned to “act Mohammad al-Iraqi, named four al-Essawi, another aide, who has interests or the party. tolerated. before it’s too late.” He added that a committee Today’s al-Sadr is far different formed by al-Sadr will pursue from yesterday’s, having aban- legal action against the corrupt doned violence, despite continu- and to monitor the movement of ing to command a private militia party members “in an authorised known as the Peace Brigades. centralised-administrative way” Periodic dismissals of his ap- the statement read. pointees — a common trend in This uneven playing field is the 16 years of the movement’s breeding antagonism but does life — has offered al-Sadr quick-fix little to fight Iraq’s well-advanced solutions to arising problems but it culture of corruption, as con- is compromising party unity. tradictions, which have existed The party was recently rav- before, reach new heights. aged by another crisis following a If al-Sadr is unable to heal series of dismissals of advisers and internal party wounds, his foreign businessmen, prompting violent policy approach — lauded in the clashes outside Bashir Mall in West — will falter, similar to his Najaf. attempt to rein in the violence of During the al-Sadr-led protests militiamen he commands. against corrupt affiliates and high- The banner of reform has of- ranking figures outside an upscale fered al-Sadr a convenient armour mall, security guards fired on to hide behind but for how long? demonstrators, killing four people and injuring 17 others, Najaf’s Nazli Tarzi is an independent Hakim Hospital reported. The mall, journalist whose writings and films owned by Jawad al-Gara’awi, the A complex figure in the Iraqi puzzle. A 2018 file picture shows Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada focus on Iraq’s ancient history and former vice-chairman of Najaf al-Sadr (C) visiting his father’s grave in Najaf. (Reuters) contemporary political scene. June 2, 2019 13 Spotlight Palestinians in Jordan Jordan seeks support for UNRWA in face of US pressure

Mamoon Alabbasi raeli-Palestinian conflict. UNRWA Commissioner-General Pierre Kraehenbuehl hit back at London Greenblatt’s remarks, saying the organisation’s mandate is a matter ordanian officials are seek- for the entire UN General Assem- ing political and financial bly to consider, not “one or two support for the UN agency individual member states.” J responsible for Palestinian Greenblatt called on Palestinians refugees after efforts by the United to attend a US-organised confer- States to dismantle the interna- ence scheduled for June 25-26 in Dire conditions. A Palestinian man walks in Baqa’a refugee camp in northern Jordan. (AP) tional organisation. Bahrain. The conference has the Jordan, which hosts some 2.2 “potential to unlock a prosperous Jordan Times reported. short of reaching a two-state solu- staff are often now on temporary million registered Palestinian future for the Palestinians,” said The two countries said they are tion, the country’s national security contracts, unemployed during refugees, sees the work of the UN Greenblatt. working to narrow UNRWA’s defi- would be threatened,” wrote Has- school holidays and not knowing Relief and Works Agency for Pal- Palestinian officials rejected -at cit of around $200 million in 2019. san A. Barari in an opinion article in if they will be rehired afterwards,” estine Refugees in the Near East tending the Manama conference Sweden has donated $200 million the Jordan Times. “Some observers reported Asia Times. (UNRWA) as vital to maintain sta- but Jordan has yet to make it offi- to the agency over the past four argue that Jordan should attend but UNRWA is where most Palestin- bility in the country. In addition, cially clear if it was going to par- years. for Jordan, there is a much more ian refugees received health sup- the topic of Palestinian refugees ticipate. UNRWA is hosting a donor A day earlier, Safadi met with important issue. If it accepts to at- port. “There are 1,200 women re- is very sensitive in Jordan because conference the same day. British Minister of State at the For- tend the workshop, the credibility ceiving family planning care, 700 many Jordanians are themselves of UNRWA, whose funds are ex- eign and Commonwealth Office of the government will go down.” receiving prenatal care and 3,500 Palestinian origin. pected to run short in June, is ex- and Department for International US presidential adviser Jared children ages newborn to 5 [in In 2018, the Trump administra- amining new funding models and Development Andrew Murrison in Kushner visited Jordan May 29 to Jerash camp],” reported Alice Roth- tion reduced the United States’ appealed for more aid. Amman, to discuss the continu- convince Amman to attend the con- child in the website Mondoweiss. annual contribution to UNRWA A vote on renewing the UNRWA ation of Britain’s support for UN- ference in Bahrain. It was unclear In addition to humanitarian impli- from $360 million to $60 million. mission is to take place this year in RWA. whether Jordan would yield to US cations of the US cuts, Washington’s In 2018, the United States stopped the General Assembly. The United Safadi met with German Foreign pressure. bid to strip Palestinians of their refu- giving funds to the UN agency. States is unlikely to secure enough Minister Heiko Maas on May 23 and What is certain, however, is that gee status could undermine Jordan’s votes to end the UNRWA mission stressed “the importance of contin- UNRWA camps — as well as health stability, observers noted. In addition to humanitarian but its cancellation of aid has hurt ued financial and political support” and education services — have tak- “If the Trump administration implications of the US cuts, UNRWA’s work in a number of to UNRWA. en a hit following the US cuts. seeks to strip Palestinian refugees Washington’s bid to strip countries, including Jordan. Jordanian commentators ex- “Jerash camp has 30,000 inhab- of their status, it will destabilise pressed criticism of US policies itants and of the 43 workers col- Palestinians of their refugee Amman, a traditional US ally, has one of America’s closest allies in looked towards Europe for support towards the Palestinians, includ- lecting rubbish keeping the streets the region,” wrote Khalil E. Jah- status could undermine on UNRWA. ing defunding of UNRWA, the pro- clean only ten remain after the shan in Foreign Policy last October. Jordan’s stability. Jordanian Foreign Minister posed peace plan that is commonly cuts. The smell of rotting rubbish “Having survived many existen- Washington has repeatedly Ayman Safadi met with Swedish referred to as the “Deal of the Cen- everywhere is encouraging rats and tial challenges since 1946, Jordan’s called for the dismantling of UN- Foreign Ministry Deputy Director- tury” as well as the Manama con- the camp air is thick with flies forc- monarchy is not willing to com- RWA. In an address, May 22 to the General Anna Hammargren on ference. ing many of its residents to start mit national suicide just to please UN Security Council, White House May 27 to address “joint efforts “On the whole, Jordanians sus- burning rubbish in their streets and Washington.” adviser Jason Greenblatt said: between Jordan and Sweden in pect that the workshop will pave alleyways,” the Independent re- “The UNRWA model has failed the cooperation with the international the way for implementing the ill- ported. Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy Man- Palestinian people.” He accused community to raise political and fi- advised ‘Deal of the Century.’ Jor- “Class sizes [in Baqa’a camp] aging Editor and Online Editor of the agency of perpetuating the Is- nancial support for the UNRWA,” the dan has made it perfectly clear that have swollen and the remaining The Arab Weekly. Anera includes Jordan in its MENA area of operations

Roufan Nahhas “Refugees’ return will be a long since then, delivering an average of process. The duration of forced dis- more than $60 million annually in placement in the world is now aver- humanitarian and development as- Amman aging around 17 years,” he said. sistance the past three years. “We seek to improve the lives of Much of the assistance is in in- elivering more than $67 refugees and the communities they kind donations of medicines and million in assistance pro- live in. Whether refugees end up medical supplies — more than $530 grammes in 2017, the staying in their host country, mov- million in the past 50 years. Al- D American Near East Refu- ing to a third country or returning though such donations represent gee Aid (Anera) organisation has to their home country, they need about two-thirds of Anera’s assis- been instrumental in easing the help to maintain dignity and safety tance, the organisation has been suffering of refugees and people and work towards economic stabil- increasingly involved in develop- affected by conflicts in the Middle ity,” Carroll said. ment programmes. East. “Anera’s programmes on acceler- In Gaza, one of the most densely After 50 years of operating in the ated learning, vocational training, populated areas with more than 2 West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon and Syr- youth and community leadership million people, Anera focused on ia, Anera is seeking a stronger pres- and women’s economic empower- capacity building and infrastruc- ence in Jordan, one of the countries ment will provide useful skills that ture repair. It has been training most affected by the Syrian crisis. are valuable towards a return to teachers and building classrooms With more than 660,000 regis- normalcy and prosperity, wherever and water networks. tered Syrian refugees, Jordan has they end up living.” In the West Bank, Anera helps the second highest share of refu- Anera started its work in the Mid- farmers make efficient use of scarce gees per capita after Lebanon, the dle East after the 1967 Arab-Israeli resources, install water networks UN refugee agency said. Jordan war, responding to the needs of Pal- and capture rainwater. Creating opportunities. Anera President Sean Carroll at the also suffered during the Iraq war in estinians and others caught in the In Lebanon, where approximate- inauguration of a project in the occupied territories . (Anera) 2003 with an influx of Iraqis fleeing conflict. ly 1.5 million Syrian refugees live, violence. Anera provides free dental care, “Anera worked in Jordan in the After 50 years of operating food and medicine. It also helped tens in Palestine or providing vo- lished Palestinian refugee camps, past, in response to the Iraqi crisis,” in the West Bank, Gaza, improve conditions in hospitals cational skills to Syrian refugees five camps were built in Jordan to said Anera President Sean Carroll. Lebanon and Syria, Anera is and clinics for Palestinian refugees. that will help them get work no host Syrian refugees since 2011. “As challenges continue and have With the US cut on funding for matter where they end up, or eco- The Zaatari Camp, the biggest Syr- grown since the start of the Syrian seeking a stronger presence UNRWA, the UN agency assisting nomic empowerment of women, ian camp, hosts 78,527 refugees. crisis (in 2011), we should be work- in Jordan, one of the Palestinians, Anera’s work has be- which shows huge, positive results Nearly 20% are under 5 years old ing in Jordan again. The Jordanian countries most affected by come more crucial. The organisa- towards building security and pros- and 20% of households are headed government as well as donors are the Syrian crisis. tion’s performance, like other hu- perity.” he said. by women. encouraging us to come back.” manitarian groups, relies heavily “Our presence remains, our Most Syrian refugees in Jordan “We are gearing up to do more in “Following the 1967 war several on donations, Carroll said. response is strong and our pro- live in urban areas. More than 80% Jordan and also prepare ourselves Arab and non-Arab individuals and “However, we have many strong grammes are effective. The chal- live below the poverty line, 51% of to be able to respond in Syria when organisations in the United States partners and supporters, who, like lenge in these circumstances is refugees are children and 4% are el- the time is right,” Carroll said, not- joined forces and formed Anera to Anera, remain committed to work- to remain agile, innovative, cost- derly, UNHCR figures indicate. ing that, while some refugees are provide a modest but important ing in the region,” he said. “They effective and impactful,” Carroll returning to Syria, most of them response to the crisis,” Carroll said. know what needs to be done, added. Roufan Nahhas is a journalist have not started that journey. Anera has grown considerably whether building new kindergar- In addition to ten long-estab- based in Jordan. 14 June 2, 2019 Debate Syria Syrian regime still has no qualms about attacking journalists

James Snell

ournalists and fixers as- sociated with Britain’s Sky News recently came under fire in Syria. This was not an accident nor was it brief, as video recorded Jby the crew as they scrambled to escape injury and death attests. No one was killed but an activ- ist travelling with the party was injured by shrapnel. The intent of the attackers, forces affiliated with the regime of Syrian President Bashar As- sad, was obvious. So, too, is the campaign by pro-regime forces, secretly and in plain sight, to make reporting in Syria dangerous and to kill those whose conclu- sions conflict with how the Syrian state wants its country’s civil war understood. The attack on a foreign news crew elicited international outrage. Much of Britain’s media class reacted strongly and the country’s political and diplomatic figures did so, too. Envoys from Intensified attacks. A man points to the sky as he stands next to a White Helmet rescue volunteer following a reported air strike by other countries echoed similar regime forces in the Syrian town of Maaret Al-Noman in southern Idlib, May 26. (AFP) sentiments. All declared that targeting journalists is illegitimate and criminal and that it must not One can note that the attack on and will continue absent interven- attention. For Western publics activism and journalism do him happen again. Sky’s entourage does not repre- tion from outside or capitulation to care, Western media must do great credit. When confronted with this sent a unique outrage but rather from within. more than aggregate material Perspective demands that we rare uniformity in international a small and luckily unbloody Regime violence against media provided by others. For Syrian resist self-mythologising claims, discussion of Syria, it is normally reminder of the near con- — domestic and international — activists under fire, this is an if they emerge, in which foreign clear to see why it has come stant bombardment that falls demonstrates one thing: that re- unfortunate necessity but it also journalists are the primary victims about. Violence aimed by somewhere in the country porting on the actions of its forces provides an opportunity. of Syria’s war. the regime at foreigners every day and espe- is something Damascus does not The presence of foreign journal- Nonetheless, if the story of this is seemingly easier for The presence of cially around Idlib like and cannot tolerate. ists in opposition areas makes the recent attack travels and combines the world at large to foreign of late. The fact of The immediacy of the social regime nervous and when it gets with other attacks mounted by the condemn. When journalists in this widespread media age means video of the nervous, it gets violent. When, in regime on foreign media, it can at 2012, Marie Colvin, Paul Conroy least tell the world something that Syrian journalists opposition areas violence means worst of Syria’s war is widespread have met with condemning its and widely available. The results and Remi Ochlik reported about the regime has no qualms about death in the last makes the every instance of aerial attacks are viscerally cap- what the regime was doing to doing things that are not just im- eight years, rarely regime nervous is more, not less, tured from windows or rooftops. Homs, it could not tolerate their moral but seemingly illogical and have so many and when it gets important. The fate of those caught in rubble version and sought to bring their self-defeating, that it is uncaring international voices nervous, it gets As the regime has can be broadcast globally at little efforts to a violent end. Colvin or unrestrainable in violence and been united in con- violent. become stronger, cost and with great effect. This and Ochlik were killed and Conroy that things can only get worse — demnation. in relative terms, it weakens the capacity of the re- wounded — deliberately, know- for Syrians and foreigners critical A double standard can has not moderated its gime to convince anyone outside ingly, targeted by regime forces. of the regime — as it is allowed always be detected but this re- approach. Secure in Damascus, its borders that its fight is a noble This attack did not have only its to grow more certain of victory, action must not be paramount. it is not more responsible but one and that its enemies are not intended effect. The killing of col- no matter how bloody the road it When discussing attacks on jour- more reckless. The attacks on ar- worth sympathy of support. leagues breeds media consensus. must travel to get there. nalists and their aides, perspective eas of the country that are not un- In any case, it takes vernacular Colvin’s story has furnished both must be kept. der its direct rule have intensified accents to elicit more general book and film. Conroy’s continued James Snell is a British journalist. Congressional report on US Syria policy yields more of the same

from its shortcomings. The withdrawal option met their ability to frustrate Assad’s These are serious and damaging US policy has distinguished with almost universal criticism effort to “retake all of Syria.” Even consequences that in a healthy Geoffrey itself since the Syrian uprising among the Washington cogno- so, Trump’s Syria envoy James policymaking environment Aronson began in 2011 by its consistent scenti when it was announced Jeffrey admitted to Congress that: would spark some serious critical inability to correctly analyse the last December. This report is yet “We don’t have a political future thinking about how to craft a new essential dynamics of the Syrian another nail in that coffin. that we offer for [the Kurds]. The policy that, in contrast to current he “Syria Study Group crisis — from the staying power of The study group correctly political future we offer for them practice, would reduce the Iranian Interim Assessment the regime to the effectiveness of recognises that Assad’s driving, is the political future we offer for and Russian presence in Syria and and Recommenda- Russian intervention. if unremarkable, objective is to everybody in Syria… a democrat- resolve differences over Syria with tions,” a US congres- Washington, having misdi- “retake all of Syria.” ic, peaceful government.” Turkey that are imperilling NATO. sional study, reflects agnosed essential features of “Syria for the Syrians” remains The report rejected the Such expectations have been the expert and politi- the revolt, has proven unable to the dominant leitmotif of essential premise that the disappointed. The report recom- Tcal consensus about “what next” devise winning strategic and tac- Syria’s modern history. That absence of state authority is mended continuing and even in Washington’s Syria policy. tical plans. All that is left of the Assad has squandered at the heart of the crea- enhanced support for Kurdish The study offers no indica- grand US-led effort to oust Syrian Syria’s independence tion of Syria’s “ungov- control over significant Syrian ter- tion that a reconsideration of US President Bashar Assad and sup- of action won at erned spaces” that ritory and “stabilisation” in these policies is necessary. Instead, the port a national democratic revival great cost by his The report is an are exploited by US areas to fortify their opposition to group doubled down on a course is a rear-guard action to frustrate father does not accurate reflection enemies like ISIS Damascus. of action that guarantees the con- the regime’s restoration of state excuse Washing- of the persistent and al-Qaeda and A similar determination to tinuing impoverishment of the control over all sovereign Syrian ton’s losing bet on inability of US which provide impede the post-war rehabilita- long-suffering Syrian people, en- territory and impede reconstruc- a strategy centred policy towards Syria a compelling tion informs recommendations forced by sanctions and unending tion and the return of refugees. on undermin- to learn from its rationale for the to continue “isolating the regime — and increasingly irrelevant — Study groups such as this are ing the effort to shortcomings. regime’s depend- through sanctions, diplomatic US military deployments against intensely political exercises. re-establish unchal- ence on Iranian and pressure and denial of reconstruc- a regime and its allies who show Congress is not interested in ivory lenged national au- Russian assistance. tion aid” and supporting refugees no signs of surrendering what tower pontifications or biting thority throughout the US opposition to Ira- outside Syria. Why the continuing the US-supported opposition has self-criticism but in mobilising country. Such a strategy nian and Russian deploy- pursuit of these policies should failed to win on the battlefield. support against efforts, notably fails to address the importance ments is one of the pillars of result in the materially different The report, a final version of by US President Donald Trump, to of Syrian nationalism and current US policy but the report outcome preferred by Washington which is due in September, is a end the US expedition in Syria. In the opportunities it presents to failed to consider that a strong is maddeningly left unaddressed. prescription for another “forever this important respect, the report reduce Iranian and Russian foot- central authority that has pre- The report’s key acknowl- war” against the Assad regime. delivers the goods. prints in the country. vailed over its internal enemies edgement that “an extended US Admittedly there is no miracu- It reaffirms support for the This assessment has important is the best way to reduce their military commitment” will be lous cure for Syria’s myriad ills. status quo against those, argu- implications for US support for undesired presence. necessary as long as there is no Yet it is particularly dishearten- ably including Trump himself, the Kurdish People’s Protection Not only has the United States “stable political outcome” sets the ing, if not unexpected, to see who have shown a preference for Units and the effort to expel Rus- come up far short in realising stage for another “forever war” that, after so much blood and withdrawing US troops vital to sian and especially Iranian influ- its Syria objectives, the report conducted by the United States in treasure, the best available policy the existence of the Kurdish en- ence from Syria. acknowledged that the shortcom- the Middle East. advice to the US Congress is to do clave in north-eastern Syria and Having defeated the Islamic ings in US policy “have enhanced more of the same. In that sense, the maintenance of an isolated State (ISIS) with US support, the Russian prestige” and have Geoffrey Aronson is a the report is an accurate reflec- but strategically located base (al- Kurds, who see no future without helped to create problems with non-resident scholar at tion of the persistent inability of Tanf) and refugee camp (Rukban) reconciliation with Damascus, are Turkey that “risk eroding the the Middle East Institute in US policy towards Syria to learn near the Jordanian/Iraqi border. valued by Washington because of NATO alliance.” Washington. June 2, 2019 15 News & Analysis Lebanon

Lebanon agrees on draft budget but challenges remain

Simon Speakman Cordall Under the draft budget, the coun- try’s deficit target for 2019 stands at 7.6% of GDP, a reduction from the Tunis present figure of 11.4%, Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil fter 19 rounds of meet- said May 27. ings, the Lebanese cabinet “We can maintain this number agreed on a draft budget and we can improve it,” Khalil said. A that has been passed on to “We are serious in this and it will be parliament for approval. translated through an injection of Hopes of a quick reversal in Leba- new investment projects that will non’s financial woes look overly revive the economy.” optimistic, however. Parliament The draft proposals touch on po- Speaker Nabih Berri told the Daily litically risky moves, including a Star newspaper that it might take 3-year state hiring freeze, capping lawmakers a month to ratify the public sector bonuses and a tax on cabinet’s draft proposals, delay- state pensions. However, the cause ing implementation and increasing of much prior dissent, such as the costs for the debt-ridden country. anticipated cut in public sector While the budget marks a signifi- wages, was sidestepped. cant step by the Lebanese govern- Ministers also approved a series ment to address its spiralling debt, of measures designed to increase analysts questioned some assump- revenues, including increasing tax tions on which the cabinet based its on interest on deposits from 7% to decisions. 10%. Increased income taxes for The cabinet’s proposals avoided high earners have been proposed, some of the potentially more divi- as well as a 2% fee on various im- sive issues, highlighting the chal- ported goods. lenges involved in restructuring the Addressing Lebanon’s escalating Lebanese economy. debt crisis and restoring investor confidence in the country are vital to lawmakers. At stake is the $11 bil- The draft proposals touch lion in funding pledged by interna- Problems linger. Lebanon’s Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil walks to attend a cabinet meeting in on politically risky moves, tional donors at the CEDRE Confer- Baabda, May 27. (Reuters) including a 3-year state ence in April 2018. In return for the hiring freeze, capping public funding, Lebanon assured donors sector bonuses and a tax on that it intended to reduce its deficit Despite such plans, government Given that the proposed cost- Despite measures included in the state pensions. and introduce measures to combat targets of reducing the deficit to cutting measures would only be draft budget, many structural prob- the corruption that has dogged the 7.6% may not be enough to restore introduced later in the year, some lems that have blighted the Leba- Lebanese economy. investor, as well as donor, confi- slippage from government targets nese economy for years, principally There is little that is new about Plans to reform Lebanon’s pow- dence, credit rating agency S&P was also likely. corruption, remain at the planning the difficulties assailing the Leba- er sector, a significant drain on Global said. “We estimate the 2019 fiscal defi- stage. As one unidentified Western nese economy. For years following the country’s economy, were an- “The announcement itself (to cut cit outturn at about 10% of GDP,” diplomat told Reuters: “The key the civil war, legislators avoided nounced in April. Data from the the deficit to 7.6% from more than Gupta said. “In the absence of sub- now is in delivering lasting reform confronting structural weaknesses World Bank indicated that govern- 11% last year) may not be sufficient stantial revenue-enhancing and and providing a vision for the long- of an economy that produces little ment transfers to the state-run elec- to improve the confidence of non- cost-cutting measures, we forecast term growth of Lebanon’s econo- but imports much. The result has tricity company averaged 3.8% of resident depositors and investors, that Lebanon’s general government m y.” been the third highest public debt GDP a year from 2008-17, amount- which has waned in recent months,” debt to GDP ratio will continue ris- ratios, the International Monetary ing to about half of Lebanon’s fiscal S&P’s primary Lebanon analyst Za- ing to above 160% of GDP by 2022, Simon Speakman Cordall is a Fund said. deficit. habia Saleem Gupta told Reuters. from 143% in 2018.” freelance writer. Viewpoint Mecca summits highlight Lebanon’s precarious position

Gulf and Organisation of Islamic of Saudi Arabia, is more distant Cooperation, also hosted by Saudi from the kingdom after falling Arabia. out with the Saudi administration For Lebanon, the Mecca sum- last year. As a result, he is more Makram Rabah mit was a chance to enthusiasti- reliant on his former political op- cally reaffirm its commitment to ponents, such as Aoun and Bassil, Arab unity and brotherhood, as the president’s ever-ambitious well as an opportunity to begin son-in-law. breaking its isolation vis-a-vis The Hariri-Bassil alliance, based Gulf states. on financial rather than political Beirut was represented at the considerations, has empowered summit by Lebanese Prime Min- Hezbollah, which sits in Hariri’s ister Saad Hariri, accompanied by cabinet and lets Bassil run the two cabinet ministers. Predict- show. ably, Hariri’s speech was heavily Bassil and Hariri believe their scrutinised by Gulf states, who “good cop-bad cop” routine have grown concerned that he is a will protect Lebanon from the willing hostage to, if not outright fallout of the Sunni-Shia conflict. partner with, Hezbollah. However, their posture is turn- Hariri offered a lukewarm ing Lebanon into a rogue state reaction to the terrorist attacks that has little influence over the Distant. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri (C) attends the Gulf against the United Arab Emirates issue, while also subjecting the Cooperation Council Summit at al-Safa Royal Palace in the Saudi (AFP) and Saudi Arabia, although he did country’s crumbling economy to holy city of Mecca, May 31. ith the US declare Lebanon’s full-fledged further regional pressures. dispatching support to its Arab brethren. It is an imprudent strategy, conflict but for war of attrition, carry nearly the same weight to warships to the Other leading Lebanese figures, especially because Bassil’s Faus- which could be even more harm- the Saudi administration as his Gulf and rein- including President Michel Aoun, tian deal with Hezbollah is fully ful for Iran and its lackeys. late father’s did. forcing troops House Speaker Nabih Berri, both exposed. Bassil’s continued de- They also come as Arab states All of this shows why Lebanon’s in the Middle allies of Hezbollah, were silent on fence of Hezbollah’s interference braced for the worst — a poten- economic troubles are likely to WEast, many are envisioning an the matter. in Gulf countries’ affairs reflects tial deal between the ever-fickle continue. Hariri and Lebanon’s apocalyptic military showdown This attitude underscores his ambitions to climb the politi- US President Donald Trump and political class are hoping to es- between Washington and Tehran how many of Lebanon’s political cal ladder, eventually becoming Iran. This would put Gulf states in cape economic collapse by adopt- and its proxies. leaders are out of sync with Gulf Lebanon’s president. a very precarious position, similar ing an imprudent budget that While this outcome is always leaders, putting the country in Contrary to what many believe, to US President Barack Obama’s masks corruption behind a facade possible, the United States is a precarious spot, given rising the three Gulf summits were not nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. of reforms. Real reform can only more immediately concerned tensions. aimed at preparing for a military Hariri’s remarks during the start with reeling in Hezbollah with ensuring that its sanctions Aoun, especially, has been loth summits only paid lip service and reclaiming full sovereignty against Iran hold strong and to support Arab Gulf states. When to his hosts. He has little sway over the Lebanese state. that Tehran’s proxies, especially Lebanon received its invitation The posture of Bassil over his political allies, who have It is important to note that the Hezbollah, are contained and to the Mecca summit, Aoun, usu- wildly different objectives. It is Mecca summits were not merely challenged across the region. ally keen to attend international and Hariri is turning clear, for example, that Hariri’s about Iran but also about Leba- The Iranian threat was the meetings, swiftly delegated the Lebanon into a rogue pledge to keep Lebanon in line non. It is about addressing the main subject of an emergency task to Hariri. with the Arab consensus does not vortex of corruption and instabil- Arab summit May 30 in Mecca. Adding insult to injury, Leba- state that has little reflect the attitude of Aoun and ity that has left Lebanon isolated, The summit, coming as a direct nese Foreign Minister Gebran influence over the Bassil, who will do nothing to with not one of its Arab brethren response to attacks believed Bassil boycotted the Arab foreign issues, while combat Hezbollah’s activities. left to come to its rescue. perpetrated by Iran-sponsored ministers’ preparatory meet- Hariri has effectively relin- factions against commercial ships ing, which generally precedes subjecting the quished much of his prime min- Makram Rabah is a lecturer at in the UAE port town of Fujairah any Arab summit, sending the country’s crumbling isterial responsibilities, agreeing the American University of Beirut and oil pumping stations in Saudi message that his resolve and al- to be subordinate to Aoun and his and author of “A Campus at War: Arabia, precedes the summits legiance lay elsewhere. economy to further political and economic projects. Student Politics at the American of the Gulf Cooperation Council Even Hariri, a traditional ally regional pressures. This means Hariri’s words do not University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” 16 June 2, 2019 News & Analysis Palestine Israel

US peace plan comes unglued over Israel’s election rerun

Kelly Kennedy not providing the political aspects of the peace plan yet. Administration officials said they Washington intend to announce financial as- pects but no further details about srael’s stunning announce- the peace plan at an economic ment calling for snap elections workshop June 25-26 in Bahrain. may affect plans for the rollout The workshop is meant to raise I of the Trump administration’s money for Palestinian investment so-called “Deal of the Century” on and infrastructure. Middle East peace. The bad news, he said, is that it’s While US President Donald “out of sync” with the US election Trump’s son-in-law and adviser cycle. Jared Kushner travelled to Israel Kushner visited Morocco, Jor- May 30, ostensibly to promote the dan and Israel to promote the plan. plan, there’s no government there Neither Morocco nor Jordan said to which to pitch. whether they officially support the Should anyone but Binyamin Ne- US plan or the Bahrain meeting. tanyahu be elected Israeli prime Saudi Arabia and the United Arab minister in the next go-round, the Emirates have said they would landscape could change consider- send representatives to the eco- ably as far as support for the Trump nomic workshop. administration and its peace plan Kushner met with Netanyahu goes in Israel. May 30. “This is a rookie mistake,” tweet- ed Martin Indyk, a distinguished Announcing an unpopular fellow at the Council on Foreign peace plan could affect Relations and former US special en- Netanyahu’s re-election voy for US Israeli-Palestinian nego- possibilities and not tiations. “Everybody in Israel and announcing it could cut into the Arab world would understand next year’s US presidential if they skipped Israel on this trip. elections. No one, especially Netanyahu, has time to talk peace in this chaotic Because Netanyahu was un- situation.” able to form a government by May After a May 29 meeting with unfortunately, can’t afford to be “Trump did everything to help “A lot more to do!” 29, parliament was dissolved and Jordanian King Abdullah II, Jason as open/have been intimidated to Netanyahu,” Tibon said on Twitter. The plan, which hasn’t been new elections are expected to take Greenblatt, US special representa- avoid our workshop,” Greenblatt “He delayed his own peace plan by released, has received a tepid re- place September 17, long after an tive for international negotiations, tweeted May 23. “Ultimately, the six months, recognised the Golan sponse. The Palestinians have re- economic meeting in Manama in said it went well. choice to contribute is theirs & of as part of Israel, praised [Netanya- fused to participate without seeing June. “Constructive meeting with course the opportunity is theirs to hu] and even blatantly interfered in it and several countries, including Announcing an unpopular peace [King Abdullah] in Jordan today in- lose.” Israel’s coalition negotiations just Russia and China, said they would plan could affect Netanyahu’s re- cluding a good conversation about Amir Tibon, a reporter with this week. And it was not enough. not participate in the economic election possibilities and not an- regional dynamics and our admin- Haaretz, has questioned before What will he give [Netanyahu] in meeting in Bahrain. nouncing it could cut into next istration’s efforts to help Israel and why Trump would offer Netanya- the rematch?” The White House announced year’s US presidential elections. the Palestinians achieve a brighter hu so much — the move of the US On May 27, Trump sent a clear that US national security adviser Some said it was a good news/ future,” he posted on Twitter. embassy to Jerusalem, sovereignty message of support to Netanyahu. John Bolton, Israeli national se- bad news event. David Makovsky, Greenblatt had previously criti- over the Golan Heights and sup- “Hoping things will work out curity adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat director of the Programme on the cised Palestinians not interested in port during his elections — without with Israel’s coalition formation and Secretary of the Security Middle Eastern Peace Process at attending the meeting in Bahrain. asking for anything in return. On and [Netanyahu] and I can con- Council of Russia Nikolai Patrushev the Washington Institute of Near “As most of us know, some Pales- June 30, he wondered what Trump tinue to make the alliance be- would meet in Jerusalem in June to East Policy, said on Twitter that, on tinians are open-minded & willing would offer before the new elec- tween America and Israel strong- talk about Middle East security is- the good side, it provides an out for to give us a chance while others, tions. er than ever,” Trump tweeted. sues. Israel heads to unprecedented snap election in blow to Netanyahu

Manuel Langendorf an exemption from the otherwise Gantz. mandatory military draft granted Labour Party Chairman Avi Gab- ultra-Orthodox seminary students. bay said the party would either London Lieberman is opposed to demands merge with Blue and White or the by ultra-Orthodox parties to soften left-wing Meretz party before the sraeli Prime Minister Binyamin a draft bill on the issue that he sub- elections. Netanyahu suffered a serious mitted during the last legislative Within Likud, the blow to Net- blow by failing to form a coali- term. anyahu could mean that those op- I tion government before a May Netanyahu had pushed on with posed to him might mount a chal- 29 deadline, forcing unprecedent- negotiations while setting condi- lenge to his leadership but Cidor ed snap elections. tions for the Knesset’s dissolution. said it was unlikely that Netanyahu The Knesset voted to dissolve, Calling snap elections guaranteed could be removed. sending the country to the polls that no other member of parlia- The failure to form a government September 17. It is the first time ment, including Benny Gantz of the could complicate Netanyahu’s re- snap elections were called in Israel Blue and White party, which also ported plans to advance legislation before a government was formed. won 35 seats, would be tasked with to grant himself immunity from Netanyahu won a mandate to forming a coalition. prosecution before he potentially form a government after his Likud Speculation was rife whether faces corruption charges. Part of party won 35 of 120 Knesset seats Lieberman’s conflict with the Hare- this strategy was to pass a bill that April 9. It soon became clear that he di camp was part of a larger strate- would prevent the Supreme Court would have trouble forging a com- gy. “We don’t know the real reason from striking down legislation such promise that would bring together for Lieberman’s stance,” said Israeli as the planned immunity law. Avigdor Lieberman, the head of journalist Peggy Cidor, adding that Netanyahu could face criminal the Yisrael Beiteinu party, and the everyone was surprised by “how charges of fraud and breach of trust ultra-Orthodox United Torah Juda- adamant he was on this issue.” in three cases as well as bribery in ism party. Netanyahu needed both Gideon Levy, of the Haaretz one of them. Israeli Attorney Gen- to secure a majority in parliament. newspaper, said it was “hard to eral Avichai Mandelblit has sched- tell” whether Lieberman’s plan was uled a pre-indictment hearing for Within Likud, the blow to to use the draft bill to remove Net- October 2-3, only weeks after the Netanyahu could mean that anyahu from power. elections. those opposed to him might Cidor said that while the situa- The drama in domestic politics mount a challenge to his tion was dynamic, she did not ex- raised questions about Israel’s for- eign policy and the effect on the leadership. pect dramatic changes in the elec- tion results in September, meaning Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Netanyahu was defiant after that Netanyahu could be asked snap poll could hold up plans by the deadline passed, saying that a again to form a government. the Trump administration to re- “sharp, clear election campaign… The dissolution of the Knesset lease its peace plan. US officials had A reversal of fortunes. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin will bring us victory.” He blamed set in motion a series of political previously stated their “Deal of the Netanyahu speaks following a vote on a bill to dissolve the Lieberman for the failure to form a manoeuvres. The Arab-majority Century” would be released after Knesset, May 29. (AFP) government. “Avigdor Lieberman parties are in talks to run on a joint the Israeli elections and then after is now part of the left. He brings ticket after splitting before the Ramadan. down right-wing governments,” April elections. US President Donald Trump adding that political parts of the tionship between the intelligence Netanyahu said. There is also talk within the Blue tweeted out his support for Net- plan would be released “when the communities that “forms the basis Lieberman, a secular right-wing and White party, Cidor said, of anyahu and expressed disappoint- timing is right.” of the regional threat assessment.” politician, accused Likud of having Gantz ending the alliance with Yair ment that coalition-building efforts Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Karasik said the joint assessment surrendered to the ultra-Orthodox, Lapid and trying to reach an agree- had failed. There was no immedi- Erekat told Israel Radio: “Now it is of Iran as the number one priority “fully” bearing responsibility for ment with the Israeli Labour Party. ate statement by the White House the deal of the next century.” was “unlikely to change” despite the snap elections. Lapid is anathema to the ultra- on whether the peace plan’s pub- Netanyahu’s potential successor the snap elections and the prospect Likud negotiators had tried to Orthodox parties, which are likely lication would be postponed but will be assessed by the Arab Gulf of a new government. bridge differences between the to be part of any future governing Reuters cited a US official as saying countries, said Theodore Karasik, ultra-Orthodox parties and Lieber- coalition. Cidor said there was no an economic conference in Bahrain senior adviser at Gulf State Analyt- Manuel Langendorf is a writer man. The key sticking point was confirmation for such a move by remained scheduled for late June, ics, stressing that it was the rela- focusing on the MENA region. June 2, 2019 17 News & Analysis Turkey As new Istanbul election approaches, Kurdish voters emerge as kingmakers

Thomas Seibert than 8.3 million votes cast. Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish par- ty, the Peoples’ Democratic Party Istanbul (HDP), supported Imamoglu in March to prevent a victory by the hree weeks before a rerun AKP and its partner, the right-wing election in Istanbul that Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). could shake his govern- The HDP said it will remain be- T ment, Turkish President hind Imamoglu in the rerun elec- Recep Tayyip Erdogan struggled to tion. HDP Co-Chairwoman Pervin attract a key group in the elector- Buldan told lawmakers from her ate: Kurdish voters. party that Imamoglu could score a Istanbul’s estimated 1.5 mil- big victory on June 23. “They won’t lion voters of Kurdish descent are understand it any other way,” she emerging as kingmakers in what is said about the government. “Let expected to be a close race between them wait and see.” Binali Yildirim, the mayoral candi- Pollster Bekir Agirdir of the Kon- date of Erdogan’s Justice and De- da institute said that about 80% of velopment Party (AKP), and Ekrem Kurdish voters in Istanbul were sid- Imamoglu, the opposition contend- ing with the opposition. er who won the original election in Imamoglu has been trying to March. keep the Kurds on his side by ex- Imamoglu stunned the govern- pressing admiration for Selahattin ment with his victory that came af- Demirtas, a former HDP leader who ter 25 years of rule by the AKP and has been in jail since 2016. He also its Islamist predecessors. Follow- visited a fast-breaking dinner or- ing pressure by Erdogan’s govern- ganised by Istanbulites hailing from ment, Turkey’s Supreme Electoral the Kurdish region. CHP Chairman Pivotal role. Co-leaders of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party Pervin Buldan (L) and Sezai Council ordered a rerun for June 23. Kemal Kilicdaroglu called for a law Temelli (R) sit next to HDP Vice-President Azad Baris during a news conference in Istanbul, last Fe- Polls indicated that Imamoglu was securing the right of Kurdish chil- bruary. (AFP) leading Yildirim by 1.7-5 percentage dren to have their language taught points. in schools. The strategy seems to be work- Since then, the government has Karaveli said the permission the country is battling a severe The HDP said it will remain ing. Sahismail Itik, an official at the put pressure on the HDP, describing for the lawyers was granted with economic and moving away from behind Imamoglu in the headquarters of the HDP’s Istan- the party as the PKK’s political arm. a view to the Kurdish. “Bahceli- democratic standards and towards rerun election. bul branch, said he expected most “Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan has Erdogan are being ‘nice’ to Ocalan authoritarianism. Kurds to support the opposition pursued a lynch campaign against with this in mind,” he wrote, adding “Turkey has continued to move A new defeat in Turkey’s biggest against the AKP and MHP. the Kurdish movement and espe- that the government did not neces- further away from the European and wealthiest city would under- “Many HDP members, includ- cially against the HDP,” he said. sarily need to convince Kurds to Union,” the EU Commission said mine Erdogan’s grip on the country ing lawmakers, party officials and Erdogan has allied himself close- support its candidate Yildirim. in its annual report, released May after more than 16 years in power mayors are in jail,” Itik said. “It ly with MHP Chairman Devlet Bah- “The pro-HDP Kurds don’t have 29, on Ankara’s progress towards and would boost morale for an op- is impossible for the HDP to look celi, who is opposed to negotia- to vote for Binali Yildirim,” Karaveli membership. Accession talks had position that is confident it can, at warmly at the AKP in that kind tions for a political solution of the wrote. “He’ll probably secure victo- “effectively come to a standstill,” last, beat the AKP at the polls. Turk- of situation.” Kurdish question. A new military ry if a hundred thousand HDP sym- the report said. ish media reported growing dis- Relations between the HDP and intervention into northern Iraq to pathisers stay at home on Election In an effort to improve his gov- satisfaction within the AKP, while the AKP have not always been destroy PKK camps there, begun Day. Kurdish neutrality is a realistic ernment’s image, Erdogan rolled Imamoglu, a member of the op- tense. Starting in 2013, Erdogan’s in late May, demonstrated that the hope” for the Erdogan government. out a judicial reform package to position Republican People’s Party government conducted talks with government is sticking to its hard- A statement by Buldan suggested strengthen democratic rights. “We (CHP), has become the new star of the pro-Kurdish party and with Ab- line policies. the HDP was aware of that pos- regard freedom of speech as the Turkish politics. dullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of There are signs that the govern- sibility. One priority of the HDP most important precondition of de- “The Kurdish vote is going to be the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), ment is trying to balance this ap- campaign in Istanbul would be to mocracy,” he said. decisive, with the margin between a rebel group seen as a terrorist or- proach with a softer line towards motivate around 200,000 party Critics are not convinced by the candidates being so narrow,” ganisation by Turkey and the West, the Kurds ahead of the Istanbul supporters who stayed home dur- Erdogan’s announcement. Turk- Halil Karaveli, an analyst at the In- to find a solution to Turkey’s long- poll. Ankara recently allowed law- ing the election in March to go to ish prosecutors began more than stitute for Security and Develop- running Kurdish problem. Negotia- yers of Ocalan, who is revered by the polls June 23, reports quoted 60,000 criminal investigations be- ment Policy in Stockholm, said via tions broke down when a ceasefire many Kurds, to visit their client her as saying. cause of alleged insults against Er- e-mail. Imamoglu’s win over Yildi- collapsed amid fighting between on the prison island of Imrali near Imamoglu is also counting on a dogan in the last two years, Yaman rim in the March 31 election was by the PKK and Turkish security forces Istanbul for the first time in eight growing dissatisfaction of Turks Akdeniz, an academic and cyber- less than 14,000 votes out of more in the summer of 2015. years. with the Erdogan government as rights activist, wrote on Twitter.

Viewpoint EU hints at ‘privileged partnership,’ not membership, as Turkey’s best bet

by Erdogan proved to be an anti- domestic dissent, but to no avail. hensive deterioration in democratic expression ‘remain of concern.’ As climactic as well, this time in the He only confirmed the belief that institutions and human rights, as of November 2018, 1,008 companies context of Turkey’s damaged rela- the case with Turkey regarding ac- well as in economic institutions and across Turkey with a total asset Yavuz Baydar tions with the European Union. cession negotiations with the Euro- the market economy: value of [$9.8 billion] had been Only a day after the EU Com- pean Union was doomed, possibly “More than 150,000 people were seized or had a trustee appointed. mission made public its regular forever. The report in all aspects taken into custody during the state “Turkish authorities have nega- urkey continues to daily Progress Report (widely known as noted regress and not progress in of emergency following the failed tively influenced the functioning of puzzle observers with the Enlargement Report), a visibly any part. coup attempt in 2016. Among markets, particularly by interfering bizarre turns and twists. tired, unusually stuttering Erdogan “Turkey has experienced con- 78,000 who were arrested on with price formation and introduc- When, for example, it was on stage at his massive palace siderable backsliding in the rule of terrorism-related charges, 50,000 ing constraints on the free use of appeared that Turkish declaring his long-awaited judicial law and the judiciary, fundamen- are still in jail. As of December 2018, foreign exchange. Concerns regard- President Recep Tayyip reform package. He detailed it in tal rights, economic institutions, the total number of detainees in ing the independence of key eco- TErdogan had had a long telephone nine talking points and, at the end, anti-corruption measures, media prison without an indictment or nomic institutions have deepened.” call with US President Donald the audience was left with the sense freedom and other areas,” the pending trial is 57,000. More than So on and so forth. Trump on May 29, a few — if any — of “much ado about what?” report noted. 20% of the total prison population All of this points to a huge gap were surprised by the “coincidence” All he talked about was a series “Turkey’s accession negotiations is in prison for ‘terrorism-related’ between Ankara and the European that Serkan Golge, a Turkish-Amer- of cosmetic, structural changes in have effectively come to a stand- charges, including journalists, po- Union meaning that, unless Turkey ican NASA scientist, who was held the judicial processes, new appoint- still,” it added. litical activists, lawyers and human makes a U-turn towards a parlia- for about two years in a Turkish ment routines of attorneys and It recommended no further rights defenders. These qualify eas- mentary order with an independent prison, was released hours before judges, issuing privileged, visa-free chapters of accession negotiations ily as political prisoners. Allegations rule of law, it will continue to drift the talk. “green” passports for defence law- and no further work towards mod- of torture and ill treatment remain a away from the European Union. In What Erdogan’s critics call “hos- yers (apparently a carrot to them) ernisation of the customs union. serious concern, while the handling other words, Erdogan and his power tage policies,” a pattern he seems and a very few words about lengthy Turkey was declared a candidate of complaints is reported to be inef- circles are the ones that stand be- keen to use to get his will through in pretrial detentions. Nothing about country in 1999 and, after 20 years, fective. tween Turkey and the union. international arena, was apparently securing the freedoms and rights its candidacy for membership is on “As of January 2019, 1,546 lawyers What remains, then, will be — at in full action. In the context of Tur- and zero about an amnesty for in- life support. have been prosecuted, including best — a new direction, with the key’s shattered relations with the mates, many of whom are political “It makes no sense to continue 274 who have been convicted of prospect of Turkey as an economi- United States, Erdogan is keen to prisoners. talks with this government,” said membership of a terrorist organisa- cally “privileged partner” — and display an erratic behaviour based The speech must have come as a Kati Piri, a European Parliament tion. There are around 500 lawyers nothing else. on the belief that like him, Trump disappointment for all the Turkey rapporteur on Turkey, in his reac- under arrest and awaiting trial. An All other talk about keeping and Trump alone will be the one to hopefuls in the European Union tion to the report. estimated 170,000 internet sites Turkey in the EU membership per- “fix” all the damage that brought and elsewhere. It was clear that Er- How profoundly Erdogan fell are reportedly banned. Lack of spective from now on will be a lip the two allies onto a full-scale colli- dogan’s announcement of the pack- short of meeting the requirements transparency of media funding, service, devoid of meaning. Let it be sion course. This is certainly a pipe age was aimed at responding to the for keeping the doors ajar with the growing influence of political known. It is over. dream, one that overlooks the fact EU Turkey report, that many hoped European Union was embodied by interests on editorial policies, the that the entire US Congress is united would appease Brussels, even raise Turkey’s utter disrespect of human concentration of media ownership, Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish journalist against Erdogan’s policies. hopes that he would soften his rights. the shrinking space for pluralism and regular columnist for The Arab Days later, another appearance well-known harsh stance vis-a-vis The EU report laid out a compre- and restrictions on freedom of Weekly. 18 June 2, 2019 Debate European Elections After elections, as before, EU remains an economic giant and diplomatic minnow

have 23% of the seats in parlia- ment — but there were some notable breakthroughs, such as in Francis Ghilès Italy where Matteo Salvini’s hard- right League leapt into first place with 30% of the vote. However, uropean elections — as the scandal that brought down in so many elections in Austria’s far-right leader the day recent years — did not after the elections highlighted produce results pre- deep divisions among national- dicted by forecasters. ist forces regarding links with Far-right and national- Russia. Eist parties did make significant Marine Le Pen won her rematch gains but it was not the surge with French President Emmanuel many of their supporters had Macron but it was hardly a catas- dreamed of and their opponents trophe for the president and is had feared. unlikely to push him off course. The centre ground of politics, The hard right is divided over which is pro-European, held ex- fiscal policy, free market econom- Little to offer. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini presents the European Commission’s cept that the Liberals and Greens ics and what EU policy should Enlargement Package for 2019 in Brussels, May 29. (Reuters) muscled their way into a par- be on immigration. A major liament dominated for 40 electoral surge would have years by Social Demo- allowed it to paper over tune their policies to suit their “exorbitant privilege.” The European Union has no crat and Christian the cracks but it did economic interests. Whoever The diplomacy behind the effective policy instruments to democratic blocs. The European Union not materialise. wins, the European Union plays a collapse of the Iran nuclear deal defend itself against US sanctions The elections has no effective policy This is notable walk-on role at best. offers a good example of how — it has no deep capital market, have created a instruments to defend because a greater Europe cannot meet its security financial instruments can be no pan-Europe Treasury bond more fragmented itself against US percentage of the interests in the form of blunt na- used. US President Donald Trump and Treasury bill. legislature but sanctions − it has no electorate turned tion-state devices such as a single pulled out of the deal last year In the 1990s, the European Un- the European deep capital market, out to vote than European army. France killed that and imposed sanctions on Iran ion could have chosen to endow parliament has, no pan-Europe in any European idea in 1954 when it refused to and any companies from other the common currency with an since its inception, Treasury bond and poll in 20 years. ratify a proposal for a European countries that do business there. infrastructure to share at least a worked through Treasury bill. Pro-Europe voters Defence Community. The power to cut off foreign portion of the dollar’s privilege, shifting coalitions. were happy to switch It could have leveraged the companies’ access to US thus offering global investors The question is whether parties to make their instruments it has and capital markets and from a way to diversify their dollar pro-Europe parties can or- voice heard. turned them into geo- dollar transactions, holdings and making them less ganise themselves and work What conclusions can be drawn political tools — the Diplomatically including most of dependent on the United States. together in a disciplined fashion. from this poll for Europe’s policy common currency Europe has little sway those that take European leaders love to blame Their capacity to do so will in the Mediterranean and the could have been over events in North place outside the Trump but their sin of omission be tested early on as they seek Middle East? endowed with an Africa and the Middle United States, was where the international reserve to agree on a candidate to be The first is that nothing infrastructure to East. Its voice hardly his to use. role of the euro is concerned European Commission president. changes. Europe is an economic share a portion counts in the Israeli- The vacuous explains why the European Union The German government is press- giant but a geopolitical minnow. of the US dollar’s Palestinian conflict French, Brit- remains a diplomatic minnow ing for one of its own, Manfred Diplomatically it has little sway privilege. That, and in Syria and ish and German with a foreign policy worthy of a Weber, but the French beg to over events in North Africa and however, has never Yemen. reaction was a fitting carpet trader. differ in view of the loss of votes the Middle East. Its voice hardly been a priority. The example of EU foreign In such a context, why should by the conservative bloc. Whether counts in the Israeli-Palestinian current generation of policy. It may sound anyone be surprised that south- France will press the case of conflict and in Syria and Yemen. European leaders has a impressive to the financially ern Mediterranean and Middle Michel Barnier, who has handled While individual countries may much more superficial under- illiterate but, in real life, interna- East countries pay little attention negotiations on Brexit, or opt for choose to sell weapons to parties standing of the link between the tional European companies can- to the European Union’s Mediter- another candidate is not clear. to the civil war, the European international role of a currency not afford to cut themselves off ranean policy, let alone its overall The continent’s nationalists Union has little to offer diplo- and geopolitical power than from dollar markets, even when foreign policy. and far-right-wing forces will matically. Charles de Gaulle who, 60 years they were promised compensa- find it harder to unite than their In Libya, various EU countries ago, memorably remarked that tion for their loss of business with Francis Ghilès is an associate parliamentary foes. They failed to have pursued different agendas. the dollar’s leading global posi- Iran. The banks that lend to them fellow at the Barcelona Centre for increase their overall vote — they Leading EU members will fine- tion gave the United States an cannot do so either. International Affairs. European elections bring different challenges to Arabs, Israelis

to 638,000 last year, migration of Jerusalem. time in a kibbutz,” Sion-Tzidkiyahu President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, remains a driver of populist “The average citizen is not so said, “but I don’t think anyone in who could stay in office until 2030, right. NGOs active with rescue aware of the good things Europe Israel adores Marine Le Pen.” informed the Europeans that his Gareth Smyth boats warn of the consequences brings to Israel, for example, the While many Israelis look notion of human rights was as of continuing violence in Libya, ‘Open Sky’ agreement [which, politically to the United States, valid as theirs. while Syrian refugees in Lebanon since 2013, has facilitated air travel links to Europe are strong — the Keen among the Arabs to he highest turnout in and Turkey — as well as Afghans in between the European Union European Union is Israel’s biggest engage the European Union are European Parliament Iran — may head for Europe if they and Israel],” Sion-Tzidkiyahu trading partner. the Palestinians. Riyad Mansour, elections for 20 years see no future where they are. said. “We hear constant criticism “We have close relationships in Palestinian UN envoy, in May reflects a paradox of Islamophobia remains in the from the European Union about research,” Sion-Tzidkiyahu said. urged European officials to call growing nationalism mix, as some immigrants are more the government not taking steps “Israelis visit as tourists. We feel an international conference alongside a greater unwelcome than others. Salvini towards a two-state solution. With familiar there. Many Israelis are reviving the two-state option Tsense of continent-wide challeng- in early May told Hungarian the security situation, with the European, with about 55% entitled if, as expected, the Trump es. “People realised something was television: “If we do not take back different intifadas and rockets to EU passports.” administration’s peace plan, due to at stake here,” noted Margrethe control of our roots, Europe will from the Gaza strip, people don’t The European Union has be unveiled June 25-26 in Bahrain, Vestager, EU commissioner for become an Islamic caliphate.” feel that the EU appreciates the long sought to develop trade ditches Palestinian statehood. Competition and possible suc- The anti-Semitic background threats Israel is facing. not just with Israel but with Palestinian officials fear a lack cessor to Jean-Claude Juncker as of many European right- “The EU is funding not Arab countries. It has Euro- of Arab resistance to a scheme, commission president. wing parties has not just the Palestinian Mediterranean Agreements with overseen by Trump’s son-in-law Politicians will analyse the stopped Israeli Prime Keen among the Authority but Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Jared Kushner, they see as a cover results of the May 23-26 vote for Minister Binyamin Arabs to engage the left-wing NGOs Morocco and Tunisia, while for Israel to extend settlements weeks, assessing their implications Netanyahu from European Union are and Netanyahu Turkey has had a customs union and absorb the West Bank in what for Europe’s internal dynamics and putting out the Palestinians who keeps smashing with the European Union since Mansour called “apartheid.” for its role in the world. Crucially, feelers. Netanyahu fear a lack of Arab at [emphasising] 1995. The European Union is “The Israelis conduct extensive these were the first European received a warm resistance to a scheme that. Netanyahu the biggest trading partner of all outreach campaigns and elections since the 2015 migrant reception two overseen by Trump’s has partners these countries and of the Gulf ‘dialogue’ with groups, parties crisis boosted the populist right. years ago in son-in-law Jared within the Cooperation Council. and governmental institutions Its best showing was in Italy, Hungary from Prime Kushner. European Parliament Yet Arab leaders have done little in Europe,” said an Arab security where the League took 34.3% Minister Viktor Orban, for ‘divide and rule’ to foster political relationships analyst in Brussels. “This isn’t of votes. League leader and whose government has or to weaken the EU with the European Union or the case with the Arabs, who see Italian Interior Minister Matteo been accused of ignoring and that would be Salvini’s its political parties. At the first the EU mostly as a commercial Salvini called for a Europe-wide anti-Semitism. group.” EU-Arab League summit, in partner. No one expects that coalition of populism focused on Netanyahu’s outreach results There are Israelis uncomfortable Sharm el-Sheikh in February, to change with the European nationalist economics and curbing in part from EU policies that with Netanyahu’s approach. “At there was a scant response to elections.” immigration. Salvini wants a new Israelis dislike, said Maya Sion- a popular level, some in Israel, German Chancellor Angela Merkel bloc in the 751-person parliament Tzidkiyahu, co-president of the like Geert Wilders, who has a new declaring the “fate of the European Gareth Smyth is a regular with the populist right’s 170 seats. Israeli Association for the Study political party [the Dutch Freedom Union depends to a significant contributor to The Arab Weekly. While the number of migrants of European Integration and a Party] with no anti-Semitic degree on the fate of the countries He has reported from the Middle dropped from 1.3 million in 2015 lecturer at the Hebrew University background and who has spent of the Arab League.” Egyptian East since 1992. June 2, 2019 19 News & Analysis US

Washington experts see risks in US-Iran showdown in Iraq

Kelly Kennedy

Washington

potential showdown be- tween the United States and Iran in Iraq would car- A ry huge geostrategic risks, experts in Washington said. To begin with, nobody in Iraq wants more wars. “I think the Iraqis are in a very dif- ficult position,” said Geneive Abdo, a resident scholar at the Arabia Foundation. Because of sanctions that limit Iraq’s abilities to get electricity from Iran (though the energy sanc- tion has been eased for Iraq), Iran’s proxies in Iraq and the Iraqi gov- ernment’s inability to defend itself against Tehran, keeping Iraq from another conflict could be tough but it’s not good for either Iran or the United States to allow it to happen, Abdo said. “We can’t put Iraq in the position of being in the middle,” Abdo said. The United States has sent an aircraft carrier and bombers to the Middle East in response to word of threats against US interests in the region. Rumours of threats came after the United States ended exemp- tions from sanctions for countries buying oil from Iran. US national Between a rock and a hard place. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (L) speaks during a news conference with Iraqi (Reuters) security adviser John Bolton said Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Alhakim in Baghdad, May 26. mines “almost certainly from Iran” damaged oil tankers near the United sides because either side they like to re-establish their versions Abdo said. “The regime wouldn’t because of internal politics,” Abdo Arab Emirates. choose it will be really costly,” Ka- of a political system. really collapse.” said. “The Trump administration is Since then, rhetoric between Iran dhim said. Iran does not want to see a war Michael Pregent, senior fellow at very aware that the Iraqis can’t do and the United States led many to Iraq analyst Omar al-Nidawi said in Iraq because, as the US sanc- the Hudson Institute, agreed, say- anything.” worry about military strikes. Abdo Iraq’s “most important enemy” is tions become stricter, the more Iran ing: “Any group that drags the Iraqi Most of the time, the proxies spoke at the Hudson Institute in electricity as the summer comes, as would need Iraq, Nidawi said. people into war” will see “the Iraqi work “hand in glove” with the Iraqi Washington about the potential for well as recurring fires damaging its Even so, not all of Iran’s proxies people turn against them.” government, while being a “thorn military action in Iraq if the ten- wheat crop. want to see military action from the This would be yet another “gift” in the side” of the government the sions escalate. “At the moment, pulling Iraq United States. to Iran from the United States, Abdo rest of the time, Kadhim said. Abbas Kadhim, director and resi- into the conflict would make a bad “We tend to generalise about Iran’s said. The perception in Iraq is that dent senior fellow at the Atlantic situation a lot worse for everyone,” proxies, that they’re puppets,” Abdo “Why would we deliver a col- some members of the US govern- Council’s Iraq Initiative, said the Nidawi said. said. “It’s not as if some of the Shia lapsed Iraqi government to the Ira- ment would like to attack Iran or its Iraqi government would likely push He acknowledged that there are militias under al-Quds’ influence are nians?” she asked. proxies, Abdo said. for neutrality and work not to get remnants of the Islamic State as waiting for a conflict because they Even as the Iraqi government “We need to change that percep- involved. well as remnants of former Iraqi think it will benefit them.” doesn’t want to see problems within tion,” she said. “There needs to be “No one wants the conflict to oc- President Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath US policymakers should also be its borders, it also feels it can’t strike something Iranians can at least use cur,” Kadhim said. “Even the Irani- Party that may be interested in a US thinking towards the future, she out against the Iranian proxies in as some cover. So, rather than just ans don’t want that.” war with Iran. said. Iraq by creating a strong security how are the Iraqis or Iranians going If Iran-connected factions in Iraq “These people are now agitat- “Even if we just declared war response to any threat of militia-led to respond, we should be asking, push for war that would be a “night- ing in both the region as well as on Iran’s proxies, there would be violence. ‘What can the Trump administra- mare” for Iraq, he said. lobbying here in the US to fight support for the Iranian regime “The Iraqi officials have made tion do to prevent them from re- “Iraq does not want to choose against Iran,” he said. They would that doesn’t really exist now,” it very clear that this can’t happen sponding?’” Viewpoint Trump likely to prevail over Congress on Saudi and UAE arms sales S President Donald military support for the Saudi-led Republican-led Congress. They may have taken heart Trump invoked a coalition in Yemen. Pompeo, once a member of that a federal judge in California Gregory seldom-used clause It seems certain that, had this Congress, seems cognisant of that recently blocked Trump’s plans to Aftandilian in the Arms Export new arms sale gone through the sentiment. He emphasised that use Pentagon funds to build part of Control Act to bypass normal congressional review pro- bypassing of the normal congres- his border wall and perhaps believe the normal 30-day cess, it would have been blocked. sional review process in this case that another federal judge will Ucongressional notification process Last year, US Senator Robert was “a one-time event” and would issue an injunction on the foreign by declaring the situation involv- Menendez, a New Jersey Demo- “not alter our long-standing arms arms sale. ing Iran is an “emergency” that crat and ranking member of the transfer review process However, working in Trump’s necessitates proposed arms sales to Senate Foreign Relations Commit- with Congress.” favour is that the US Constitution Saudi Arabia and the United Arab tee, put a hold on $2 billion worth Still, relations between the gives the president broad foreign Emirates to move forward. of precision-guided munitions to Trump administration with some policy powers. Although Congress US Secretary of State Mike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab members of Congress, particularly has the “power of the purse” Pompeo told the US Congress in Emirates over their conduct in the Democrats, are so frayed that the (meaning the appropriations a written statement on May 24 Yemen war. latter are loth to take the admin- process), the courts have generally that such an “emergency exists” This particular arms sale is part istration’s word for any develop- been deferential to presidents on because of Iran’s “malign” influ- of the $8 billion package that the ment. Senator Chris Murphy, the conduct of foreign affairs. ence “throughout the Middle East Trump administration is planning a Connecticut Democrat and a Because the Arms Export Control region.” to move forward by invoking an prominent critic of US policy in Act does contain an “emergency” The arms package to Saudi Ara- emergency. support of the Saudi-led coalition clause that has been invoked (al- bia and the United Arab Emirates Some members of Congress, in Yemen, charged that there “is beit sparingly) previously, congres- involves more than 20 proposed such as Menendez, objected to no new ‘emergency’ reason to sell sional lawyers would have to make sales worth a total of about $8 bil- the Trump decision by claiming it bombs to the Saudis to drop in a compelling case that the present lion. The last time a US president runs roughshod over congressional Yemen.” situation was not an emergency invoked an emergency to allow for prerogatives. Even prominent Representative Eliot Engel, a and find a judge who would want an arms sale to go forward in an ex- Republicans are voicing concern. Democrat from New York and to weigh in on a foreign policy mat- pedited fashion was in 2006 when US Representative Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign ter that does not involve appropria- Although Congress the George W. Bush administration a Texas Republican, the ranking Affairs Committee, noted that tions. sent precision-guided weapons to member of the House Foreign Af- “Congress wrote the law so that While the first would not be too has the “power of Israel during its military conflict fairs Committee, issued a state- weapons sales would reflect broad difficult to do, the second would the purse” (meaning with Hezbollah. ment calling the administration’s consensus on foreign policy con- be a challenge. Hence, Trump is However, because the current decision “unfortunate,” adding sistent with our values, and the likely to prevail in this fight but at the appropriations sales involve Saudi Arabia, which that it would “damage certain fu- notion that there’s an emergency the cost of damaging relations with process), the courts has been the object of special scru- ture congressional interactions.” that justified upending our checks Congress, even among some of his have generally been tiny by Congress over human rights Other Republicans suggested and balances is false, plain and fellow Republicans. issues and the Yemen war, several that the invoking of the emergency simple.” deferential to members of Congress raised loud clause by the Trump administra- Time magazine reported that Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in presidents on the objections. It was only a few weeks tion sets a dangerous precedent Menendez and Murphy said they the Pardee School of Global Studies ago that Trump vetoed a congres- because it might be used by a would challenge Trump’s decision at Boston University and a former conduct of foreign sional bill invoking the war powers Democratic president at some but it is unclear how they will do US State Department Middle East affairs. resolution that aimed to end US point against the will of a so. analyst. 20 June 2, 2019 Economy Energy

Turkey complies with US sanctions to avert risks Briefs

Sabahat Khan Algeria to seek ‘compromise’ Dubai over Total’s

urkish ports have stopped Anadarko deal receiving tankers holding Algerian Energy Minister Mo- Iranian oil as Ankara reluc- hamed Arkab said he would seek T tantly complied with US a “good compromise” following sanctions targeting Iranian oil ex- his earlier comments that Algiers ports. would block a plan by Total to buy The development came as Wash- Anadarko’s Algerian assets. ington ended a 6-month reprieve for Houston-headquartered Oc- eight countries, including Turkey, cidental Petroleum agreed to sell by not renewing sanctions waivers Anadarko Petroleum Corporation’s that allowed them to buy Iranian oil assets in Algeria, Ghana, Mozam- without risk of sanctions. bique and South Africa to Total for Turkey has been the most vocal of $8.8 billion if the US oil company Iran’s oil customers in scrutinising completed its plan to take over US moves that aim to restrict Iran’s Anadarko. oil income. At the same time, Ankara Arkab said Algiers would block was unwilling to take on the eco- Total’s acquisition. Algeria remains nomic risks that continued oil trade wary of investments by French with Iran could bring. firms, although Total signed energy Turkey has been experiencing deals with the country in 2018. deep strains in relations with the “Sonatrach needs to maintain United States over its role in the Few options. A drilling vessel sails in the Bosporus in Istanbul. (Reuters) good ties with foreign partners to conflict in Syria. As Ankara reset ties develop its programmes,” Arkab with Moscow and engaged Tehran to said, adding that state-owned reshape its Syria policy, Turkey’s dis- fered upsets in recent mayoral and higher costs or continuing to buy Turkey intends to develop alterna- Sonatrach would “preserve its agreements with the United States municipal elections. Iranian oil and risk facing US sanc- tive mechanisms to continue trading interests.” became more apparent. The AKP’s record of delivering tions, which would be more costly with Iran and pledged its commit- US-backed Kurdish militias in Syr- strong, sustained economic growth and complex to manage. American ment to tripling bilateral trade with (Reuters) ia lie at the heart of the disconnect suffered in recent years, changing sanctions would jeopardise efforts Iran from its current level of around between Turkish and US approach- the domestic political landscape and by Ankara to achieve an economic $10 billion a year. Kuwait’s KUFPEC es. Mistrust between the NATO allies results at the ballot box. Turkey’s turnaround with various stimulus Given the limited scope and suc- hit low levels over Ankara’s purchase markets are edgy as Istanbul heads and support packages. cess of Europe’s Instex system to signs oil concession of the Russian S-400 missile defence for a controversial election rerun in Turkey had begun reducing oil im- bypass US sanctions, however, it is agreement in system, which the United States which an opposition candidate had ports from Iran in recent months and unclear what chances of success Tur- is opposed to. Washington threat- originally been named the victor. looked to hedge against higher oil key could have with initiatives of its Pakistan ened to block deliveries of F-35 joint Emphasising the importance of costs by buying more heavily from own or how long those could take to State-run Kuwait Foreign Petro- strike fighter aircraft to Turkey in re- Istanbul in 2017, Erdogan ominously neighbouring Iraq. By March, Tur- realise. The central banks of Turkey leum Exploration Company said its sponse. warned supporters: “If we stumble key’s oil imports from Iran had fallen and Iran had reached an agreement Pakistan unit has secured a conces- Turkey has also been battling a in Istanbul, we will lose our footing substantially and accounted for 12% to trade in local currencies in Octo- sion for the Makhad oil block in growing economic crisis at home as in Turkey.” The AKP stumbling with of its total imports. ber 2017 but, with both the Turkish Punjab province. its credit-fuelled growth falters. The Istanbul’s electorate is linked to the Iraq has displaced Iran as Turkey’s lira and Iranian rial unstable, they of- Kuwait Foreign Petroleum past year has seen the Turkish lira poorer economic performance it has largest oil supplier. Oil from Iraq ac- fer limited appeal. Exploration Company (KUFPEC) lose nearly half its value against the overseen in recent years. counts for close to one-third of Tur- In the current geopolitical scenar- signed the concession agreement US dollar and Turkey’s current ac- US sanctions targeting Iranian oil key’s import requirements, followed io and as Turkey introduces a second on behalf of its subsidiary Kirthar count deficit spiral to $27 billion. came at a bad time for Turkey, which by Russia, now accounting for one- major financing package this year Pakistan (KPBV). With inflation at around 20%, Tur- has been heavily reliant on oil im- fifth. Kazakhstan is in third place for key industry, its policy focus is “At this stage, KPBV anticipates key’s central bank is unable to bring ports from Iran. Before the United with a fast-growing market share. likely to remain on engineering an acquiring seismic data and drilling down interest rates even as unem- States unilaterally withdrew from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut economic recovery at home rather one exploration well,” it said. ployment grows. the Iran nuclear agreement and re- Cavusoglu has said US moves to end than on investing heavily into trade KUFPEC is the international oil It is in that political and economic imposed economic sanctions against sanctions waivers would have a neg- development with Iran. and natural gas exploration and backdrop that Turkish President Iran, almost half of Turkey’s total oil ative effect on regional stability and production unit of Kuwait Petro- Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Jus- imports were sourced from Iran. reiterated that Turkey would resist Sabahat Khan, based in Dubai, leum Corporation. tice and Development Party (AKP), Ankara has now been forced to external moves to impose conditions maintains a cross-disciplinary focus Turkey’s dominant political force choose between diversifying its on how it conducts relations with its in international security, defence (Reuters) for almost the last two decades, suf- oil supply from Iran and incurring neighbours. policy and strategic issues. Dubai group Viewpoint ‘agree terms’ for Newcastle takeover Iran’s economy crumbling as oil buyers jump ship Representatives of Sheikh Khaled bin Zayed al-Nahyan said they had worth the risk. Saudi Aramco offered its Indian vouring Saudi crude, with Chinese “agreed terms” with Newcastle New Delhi had said it was hold- customers additional oil sales to imports of Saudi oil rising 43% on United owner Mike Ashley, moving ing off on deciding about abiding replace Iranian oil for deliveries the year in April to 1.53 million closer to completing a deal to buy Jareer Elass by the US sanctions until after its beginning in June. However, that bpd, making Riyadh Beijing’s top the Premier League club. general elections, which saw Indi- Saudi oil will come at a higher cost supplier. Because Iranian crude A statement from billionaire an Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the Indian refiners because accounts for around 6% of China’s Sheikh Khaled’s Bin Zayed Group win re-election in a landslide. Saudi Aramco did not offer dis- total oil imports, Beijing will have said: “We have agreed terms and are At a news conference May 23, counts for its oil, which is higher no problem filling in lost Iranian working hard to complete the trans- ran’s main revenue source Indian Ambassador to the United priced compared to Iranian crude. barrels with increased volumes action at the earliest opportunity.” continued to be squeezed States Harsh Vardhan Shringla said During Turkish Deputy Minister from Saudi Arabia and other sup- Ashley, the founder of the Sports as Tehran’s most loyal oil India stopped importing Iranian of Foreign Affairs Yavuz Selim pliers. Direct retail chain, bought the club customers have heeded the oil after its waiver from the Trump Kiran’s May 22 visit to Washington, Even with greatly diminished for $170.2 million in 2007. He has put Trump administration’s administration expired in early a Turkish official indicated that exports, Iran continues to pump Newcastle up for sale three times bidding and stopped buying May. Ankara had ceased buying Iranian oil because its energy infrastruc- but previous bids failed to produce IIranian oil. Shringla said: “We do under- crude at the beginning of May. The ture is ageing and fragile and it a deal. As a sign of how tightened US stand this is a priority for the US unidentified official was quoted would be costly and potentially sanctions on Tehran are taking a administration, although it comes as saying that “as a strategic ally” technically damaging to shutter (Agence France-Presse) toll on the Iranian economy, Ira- at a cost to us because we really of the United States, “we respect” production and then restart it. nian Vice-President Eshaq Jahan- need to find alternative sources of the sanctions even though Turkey For that reason, Tehran is filling Turkey may giri announced the government energy.” disagrees with them. Ankara was domestic storage facilities and was withdrawing $1 billion from Through its exemption, New expected to increase crude deliv- storage tanks in China. In addition, extend special the National Development Fund of Delhi had been importing around eries from Iraq and Russia to make more than a dozen Iranian tank- Iran, which is dedicated to future 260,000 bpd of Iranian oil — half of up for the missing Iranian oil. ers are reportedly being used as consumption tax generations, ostensibly to create its typical pre-sanctions volumes Perhaps most surprising is floating storage, holding some 20 cuts on cars employment. from Iran. To win over New Delhi, China’s reluctance to breach the million barrels. Washington’s reversal on grant- the United States had pressed American oil sanctions on Iran. The reopening of an Iraq-Syria Turkish President Recep Tayyip ing oil sanctions waivers that took Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Beijing was the most outspoken border crossing in an area under Erdogan said his government may effect in early May led Iran’s crude Emirates to replace the Iranian about the reinstatement of sanc- the control of Iran-affiliated mili- extend existing special consumption exports to tumble as much as 50% volumes dedicated to India. tions and the waivers cancella- tias could provide an oil smuggling tax cuts on cars when they expire to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) tion and seemed politically and route for Tehran. The Al-Qaim bor- next month, a move aimed at boost- from April levels even as Tehran economically willing to withstand der crossing connects Syria’s Deir ing declining car sales. produced crude and filled storage any repercussions that would ez-Zor province to Iraq’s Anbar Sales of passenger cars and light domestically and in Asia. result from continuing to buy oil province and is being readied for commercial vehicles slid 56% Three countries that initially The reopening of an from Iran. opening. year-on-year in April, the Automo- stood by Iran after the Trump However, China may be tread- Iran also reportedly delivered 1 tive Distributors’ Association said, administration failed to extend Iraq-Syria border ing lightly because it is engaged million barrels of crude into the adding that sales dropped 48% in the waivers seemingly abandoned crossing in an area in a drawn-out and contentious Syrian port of Baniyas in early first four months of the year. Tehran by not purchasing Iranian under the control of trade spat with Washington. May, resuming illicit Iranian crude Turkey’s government imposed oil in May. China, India and Turkey Significantly, China’s top two state deliveries to Syria by sea that had cuts on the special consumption tax had suggested they were consider- Iran-affiliated oil refiners, Sinopec and China ceased at the end of 2018. for some cars last November and ing flouting the sanctions but it militias could provide National Petroleum Corporation, later extended the cuts until June 30. appears the economic and political opted out of purchasing Iranian oil Jareer Elass reports from wrath they likely would experi- an oil smuggling for loading in May. Washington on energy issues for (Reuters) ence from Washington was not route for Tehran. China has been increasingly fa- The Arab Weekly. June 2, 2019 21 Economy

Suspicious rise of Egyptian pound undermines position of investors

Mohamed Hammad totalled $14.2 billion. There were increasing concerns by investors about Cairo’s persistence Cairo in shoring up the pound against the dollar. They became reluctant to in- gypt’s currency exchange vest, especially because the foreign market has undergone a sus- exchange market in Egypt had be- picious increase in the value come unstable. E of the pound against the US Some investors said that what is dollar. Authorities explained the taking place in the market reflects phenomenon by the increase in dol- Cairo’s insistence to keep the dollar lar influx and the rise to record lev- down without convincing economic els of the Central Bank’s monetary justification. “The economic scene reserves. is expecting an increase in the prices The price of the dollar was, for of electricity and fuel this coming quite some time, at 17.7 Egyptian July,” said Mustafa Ibrahim, vice- pounds but lately it’s been selling chairman of the Egyptian-Chinese for less than 17 pounds. Business Council. He pointed out Egypt’s foreign currency reserves that Cairo’s monetary policy appar- totalled about $44.2 billion at the ently was planned to drag the dol- end of April because of aid from lar to low levels to control inflation Unstable market. A customer exchanges US dollars for Egyptian pounds in a foreign exchange office in the Gulf countries and loans from ahead of expected increases in en- central Cairo. (Reuters) international lending institutions, ergy prices. including a $10 billion loan from The Egyptian Ministry of Elec- the International Monetary Fund tricity and Energy announced an the capacity of consumers. foreigners so investors can transfer the same period last year. to support Cairo’s economic reform increase in electricity prices by an Cairo imposed restrictions on the money abroad directly through lo- Expatriate remittances were at programme. Cairo expects the dis- average of 15% in July. importation of non-essential com- cal banks without restrictions. This their lowest before freeing the sale tribution of the last instalment of Ayman Abu Hend, a member of modities to ease pressure on banks mechanism dates to 2013, when for- of foreign currency in November that loan worth $2 billion by July. the Egyptian Association for Direct to manage foreign currency. That led mer Central Bank Governor Hisham 2016. High exchange rates on the The remaining balance comes Investment, ruled out foreign direct to a drop in the demand for the dol- Ramez implemented a mechanism black market, often double the offi- from Egypt’s sale of international investments in Egypt in the com- lar and complications in registration for the transfer of funds through the cial exchange rate, led to the emer- bonds on foreign debt markets and ing period because of currency ex- of companies that export to Egypt. Central Bank to boost confidence gence of a parallel market that trans- from Arab funds. change rate instability. Some investors described the of foreign investors in the Egyptian ferred remittances. Data released in February by the He said the slump in the price of measures as leading to an exchange market. Walaa Hazem, an expert on fi- Central Bank indicated that the val- the dollar was not logical. The rate rate that is not free because the re- Abu Basha ruled out negative ef- nancial and investment markets, ue of convertible reserves was about of exports and foreign investments, strictions constrain supply-and-de- fects of the instability in the foreign warned against intervening in the $26.3 billion and the remaining bal- which usually result in an influx of mand forces. exchange market on direct foreign exchange rate because that would ance was in securities and gold bul- foreign currency, did not grow ap- Mohamed Abu Basha, a senior investments in Egypt because those lead to the return of the “black dol- lion. preciably and the prices of goods economist at EFG-Hermes, said ap- investments do not shift on momen- lar.” The reserve-building policy and services in local markets contin- preciation of the Egyptian pound is tary exchange rate fluctuations but He said to prevent the re-emer- through borrowing represents a ued to soar. a positive indicator for investors. He consider changes over at least two gence of a currency black market, complicating factor to the exchange- Capital accounts showed that for- attributed the rise of the currency years. the dollar must be widely available rate system because the change eign direct investments in Egypt fell to the influx of foreign investments If the dollar continues to decline in banks and importers’ letters of in reserves was not the result of a to $2.8 billion during the first six through the debt market. against the pound, it could lead to a guarantee must be readily covered. monetary influx from production months of this fiscal year, compared He said the appreciation of the return of the black market because In addition, the government should surpluses or increases in exports to $3.7 billion in the same period last pound was made sense because speculators will likely keep dollars, guarantee a constant flow of the US and that has added to the confusion year, further increasing uncertainty many developing countries, includ- hoping they would rebound. currency by focusing on increasing among investors. in the Egyptian currency exchange ing Egypt, were positively affected Remittances by expatriates con- the relevant sources for the dollar, During the first half of the current rate. by the US Federal Reserve not rais- stitute one of Egypt’s most im- including tourism, exports and di- fiscal year, Egypt’s trade balance This reflects a decline in produc- ing its interest rates. portant foreign currency sources. rect foreign investments. showed a deficit of $19.3 billion be- tivity and a decrease in the added Last December, the Egyptian In the first half of this fiscal year, cause of an increase in imports to value of imported raw materials, Central Bank scrapped the mecha- they amounted to $12 billion, Mohamed Hammad is an Egyptian $33.5 billion while export revenues which led to price inflation beyond nism controlling fund transfers by compared to $12.9 billion during writer. Algeria’s economy deteriorates amid political impasse Critical Lamine Ghanmi Experts said Algeria’s hydrocar- bon sector has been hard hit by the juncture. political crisis, with Sonatrach em- A view of Tunis broiled in corruption scandals re- Algerian lated to the former regime. state illions of protesters have Algerian Interim President Ab- energy firm marched in cities across delkader Bensalah, who replaced Sonatrach’s Algeria each Friday for long-time President Abdelaziz solar plant M months, calling for a Bouteflika, fired Sonatrach CEO Ab- in Bir complete political overhaul. delmoumen Ould Kaddour in April. Rebaa oil However, the largest protest Bensalah gave no reason for sack- field in movement in 57 years has moved ing Ould Kaddour, who was close to southern the country no closer to pros- Bouteflika. Algeria. perity and stability, economists Prosecutors said they were reo- (Reuters) warned, with political deadlock pening corruption cases relating to causing layoffs, lower investment Sonatrach after military Chief-of- and concerns about the future of Staff General Ahmed Gaid Salah an- Algeria’s state-owned oil company nounced there were serious “cases growing 4.5% a year, are eating panies to stay away in the short arching political purge, to improve Sonatrach. of corruption that must be probed away at potential exports. term. ties between protesters and the Economists and political analysts quickly.” Ageing oil wells, meanwhile, Algeria’s gas production rose military. worry that a worsening economic John Hamilton, who directs the have caused output to decline from from 132.2 billion cubic metres an- The effects could extend far be- crisis could turn the largely peace- UK-based energy consultancy Cross 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in nually to 141 billion cubic metres yond the country’s oil industry, ful protests violent, driving further Border Information, told the Petro- 2018 to 1.1 million bpd this year, per year under Ould Kaddour’s ten- however, bringing widespread eco- instability. leum Economist that “the military World Bank data indicate. ure, which began in March 2017. nomic instability if no solution is “If the political stalemate con- prosecutor’s announcement to re- While Algeria’s investigation into The Sonatrach corruption inves- forged. tinues, with time, the claims of the open the Sonatrach investigation Sonatrach for corruption is popular tigation spans three continents and “It is the crisis. Even the cyclically protesters will broaden and the has put the cat among the pigeons.” with protesters, it is likely to under- has implicated numerous former defensive agribusiness is hit by the solutions will become more diffi- “Sonatrach was only just getting mine reform efforts launched by leading officials, led to the jailing slowdown,” said economist Smail cult and economic suffering will its act together after a rolling witch Ould Kaddour. of a former CEO, three former vice- Lalmas. “No one is in charge at the become more severe, with higher hunt,” Hamilton added. “If you Under Ould Kaddour, Sonatrach presidents and more than a dozen top. No one is taking decisions. The inflation and shortage of foodstuffs are an [international oil company] announced a “2030 strategy” to top managers. banks are giving no loans. Even the early in 2021,” said former Prime looking at this, you are thinking, ‘I invest $9 billion in 400 oil and gas US prosecutors seized luxury loans already decided are frozen.” Minister Ahmed Benbitour, point- thought there was going to be a law wells to expand oil and gas earnings apartments in New York and Italy He and other experts said there ing to the country’s shrinking for- with better terms and a more condu- by $67 billion per year by 2030. imprisoned a top official of oil and could be mass layoffs, including eign currency reserves. cive business environment and sta- Algerian and foreign analysts gas contractor Saipem on charges some 200,000 jobs lost in the subsi- Algeria’s reserves fell from $193 bility. None of this has happened.’” said the ambitious plan would re- relating to an alleged multimillion- dy-dependent construction sector. billion in 2014 to $75 billion in Algeria is in dire need of technol- quire a new generation of technol- dollar bribery arrangement with “Investors and business are March 2019 and are expected to ogy and expertise from internation- ogy and expertise from abroad. Sonatrach. waiting for a strong signal about a drop to $60 billion by end of the al oil companies to keep its oil and They warn that political instability Analysts in Algiers said reopen- consensus solution to jump-start year, official figures showed. Algeria gas exports steady at a time when and the corruption investigation ing the investigation into Sonatrach production and give an impetus to earns almost all its foreign currency ageing oil fields’ lower productiv- into Sonatrach’s past management is a way for the country’s generals, reforms,” said former Finance Min- revenues from oil and gas exports. ity and higher domestic gas needs, could cause international oil com- who are hoping to escape the over- ister Abderrahmane Benkhalfa. 22 June 2, 2019 Society Ramadan in Iraq Determination to overcome ISIS legacy marks Ramadan in Mosul, scars remain

Oumayma Omar crowded during iftar and most families prefer to stay in parks and cafes until late at night,” Mohamad Mosul said. As in other Muslim countries, salms, prayers, feasts and the month of dawn-to-dusk fast- games are again filling the ing is a time for evening gather- long nights of Ramadan ings in restaurants, coffee shops or P in Mosul but the scars left homes of family and friends across by the Islamic State’s occupation Iraq. While many spend the night of Iraq’s largest city are yet to be in prayer at mosques between an healed two years after the jihadists evening feast and pre-dawn snacks, were defeated. others take part in games that in “Life is good in Mosul. The situ- Iraq are reserved for Ramadan. ation is much better,” said Oth- Since the beginning of Ramadan, man Mohamad, 25, who manages Yehya Tutunji, owner of a new cof- his father’s restaurant in Mosul. “I fee shop near the Tigris, has been would be exaggerating to say it is busy catering to the large number better than the years before [the Is- of revellers packing the place every lamic State] ISIS devastation; how- evening until late at night. ever, people have become more “Ramadan in Mosul this year is open and flexible, which is quite different from what it used to be strange in a city known for being before ISIS invasion,” he remarked. conservative.” “It has become much more flex- “Despite the painful incident of ible. Young people from mixed the ferry, which affected the whole gender as well as the elderly are city, people were determined to spending long hours in the cafes move on and celebrate Ramadan as and restaurants playing games and they did before,” said Mohamad in smoking water pipes.” his unmistakable Moslawi dialect. In addition to offering a large choice of special Ramadan treats, Tutunji organised “Ramadan Another Ramadan feature Nights” in his cafe featuring choirs Reviving tradition. Traditional storyteller Abdel Wahed Ismail (2nd L) entertains an audience in the making a comeback in performing religious songs and po- northern Iraqi city of Mosul, May 17. (AFP) Mosul is the traditional ems. Hakawati − storyteller. “Such events are particular to Ramadan, which we are living this ing iftar meals for the residents have no alternative but to move of the storytellers, captivating au- Almost 100 people, mostly wom- year with a lot of openness after of the old city who are living un- on with their lives and try to leave diences with fables as well as local en and children, died when a ferry getting rid of Daesh,” he said using der big duress. It gives them some the past behind. Especially young news and historical stories. sank in the Tigris River in March. the Arabic acronym for ISIS. hope after having lost their homes people are trying to spend enjoy- Traditional storyteller Abdel Wa- “Under ISIS, Ramadan had lost In the largely devastated old and loved ones.” able times together by exercising hed Ismail, a 70-year-old actor and its meaning as a special and cel- centre of Mosul, war-displaced However, Youssef noted with Ramadan customs and rituals,” local celebrity, is trying to revive ebrated occasion,” Mohamad said, residents, such as retired teacher some kind of disapproval that “the Ghulami said. the tradition. Each night he takes a adding that the newly acquired lar- Zanoun Youssef, are slowly return- unusual openness” displayed by “There is a strong determination seat on a platform in a busy Mosul gesse in marking the holy month ing to homes they could repair. young girls and boys in celebrating to return to a normal life. Rich peo- area to tell tales such as “Aladdin “is a reaction to the miseries and Amid the destruction, Youssef’s the holy month were not in con- ple are contributing to the recon- and the Magic Lamp” and the chiv- deprivations that the people suf- daughter decorated the facade of formity with Iraqi traditions and struction of the old city and help- alrous epic “Antar and Abla.” fered at the hands of the mili- the house with flickering lights Islamic norms. ing the displaced return to their Mosul is showing signs of re- tants.” and ornaments, a tradition that Hasan Ghulami, an activist with homes,” Ghulami added. covery two years after it was freed ISIS banned all Ramadan mani- she never missed before ISIS domi- a humanitarian group, said dona- Another Ramadan feature mak- from ISIS, Mohamad said. festations and popular traditions, nation. tions have significantly increased ing a comeback in Mosul is the tra- including street decorations, even- “Everyone is keen on reviv- to help impoverished families ditional Hakawati — storyteller. Be- Oumayma Omar, based in ing gatherings, public storytelling ing the Ramadan spirit despite meet their needs during Ramadan. fore the introduction of television Baghdad, is a contributor to the and gaming competitions. the overwhelming destruction,” “Despite prevailing sadness, the and the array of dramas they offer, Culture and Society sections of “This year, restaurants are Youssef said. “Charities are offer- people are convinced that they Ramadan nights were the preserve The Arab Weekly. Iraqis complain Basra market filled with Iranian produce

Azhar Al-Rubaie and Iraqi goods to compete. products don’t taste as good as Maher al-Hashimi “Hundreds of lorries loaded their Iraqi counterparts. with food come from Iran to Basra “The market is filled with im- across the Shalamcheh border dai- ported fruit from Egypt, Syria Basra ly. As a result, Basra’s local markets and Iran. I fight to find the Iraqi are filled with Iranian products products but sometimes I have l-Ashar traditional mar- with very competitive prices,” Su- no option other than purchasing ket, in the centre of Basra, dani said. imported fruit,” said shopper Bas- is filled with shoppers “Every day, customers ask us sam Jassim. “I miss the Diyala or- A looking to buy food dur- about Iraqi vegetables but we anges but what is available is from ing Ramadan. Inside the market, could not sell them in the price Egypt”. there are all sorts of products but that they are seeking. In the end, Local observers said the Iraqi Iraqis complain that little of what most of what we sell is foreign government needs to intervene to is on display is grown or made in food, mainly from Iran.” protect its food industry. Iraq. Most, they say, is imported All prices go up during Rama- “Without government help in the from Iran. dan but Iranian products remain future, Iraq will produce nothing,” “In the past, most of the prod- cheaper. In the few occasions said Alaa al-Badran, an agricultural ucts were planted here in Iraq. when the Iraq-Iran border is shut, consultant in Basra. “The govern- Now less than 30% of the vegeta- Iraqi products become even more ment has not a clear food security bles in my stall are grown in Iraq. expensive. plan and has not even taken any The rest is imported from Iraq’s “Customers buy Iranian food action to revive the farmlands.” neighbouring countries,” said Hus- not for its quality but for its cheap- Naeem Sabah, dean of the De- sein Jameel, a 23-year-old vegeta- ness,” said Mohammed Laith a partment of Economy at the Uni- ble vendor. “Tomatoes, green pep- 30-year-old vegetable vendor. versity of Basra, said without gov- pers, apples and many others are Ali Sami, a local shopper, said he ernment action, Iraq will continue imported from Iran.” buys Iraqi produce. “I prefer Iraqi to rely on food imports. “The huge products because they taste better food imports from Iran are harm- than the imported ones,” he said. ing Iraq’s economy. Iraqi products Shoppers said the “I am OK but what about the poor are unable to compete with the imported products families who do not have enough prices of their imported counter- don’t taste as good as money to buy the Iraqi products?” parts,” said Sabah. their Iraqi Kareema Abdulwahhab, a The poor performance of the Limited options. Products on display at a shop in al-Ashar market counterparts. 42-year-old mother shopping at agricultural sector and lack of em- in central Basra, May 9. (Maher al-Hashimi) al-Ashar market, said she remem- ployment are driving migration to Jameel, who began working in bered Iraqi food produce being urban areas, generating pressure the business when he was 17, said more available and cheaper before on service delivery and increasing unemployment. water flow, it leaves Iraq to suffer some customers prefer Iraqi prod- 2003. urban poverty, a report from the Many Iraqi farmers said they feel from drought. On other occasions, ucts despite the greater expense. “The government before 2003 United Nations’ Food and Agricul- abandoned by their government they open flood gates, which Not everyone, however, can afford was providing us with the most es- tural Organisation stated. and were considering leaving their drowns Iraqi farms. to buy Iraqi produce, even if they sential food items, which helped After years of war and social un- land to seek a better life. believe it is of better quality. us in saving money. Now, we work rest, Iraq is facing many challeng- People in southern Iraq said Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance Vegetable vendor Maher al-Su- all weekdays just to buy certain es. In Iraq’s long-neglected south, their agricultural land has suffered journalist in Iraq. Maher al- dani said the abundance of cheap food items,” she said. there have been angry protests directly because of Iran’s water Hashimi is a freelance journalist in Iranian products makes it hard for Shoppers said the imported over poor services, corruption and policies. When Iran withholds the Basra, Iraq. June 2, 2019 23 Culture Andalusian music brings Maghrebis together

Saad Guerraoui

Casablanca

he Andalusian Interna- tional Music Festival united Maghrebis through T thrilling performances by musicians from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia that transcended the region’s political divides. Some 150 artists took part in the first edition of the festival, which took place May 23-25 under the theme “Music, Language of Knowledge.” The festival, organised by the Casablanca City Council in coop- eration with the Nouba Al Andal- oussia Association, was designed to develop and perpetuate Anda- lusian music heritage and allow the public to appreciate its musi- cality and richness. Ibrahim Cherif el-Ouazzani, president of the Nouba Al Andal- oussia Association, said the fes- tival’s programme was meant to pass the musical heritage to future generations to perpetuate the An- dalusian music tradition under its various Maghrebi colours. Andalusian music stems from Arab-Andalusian culture that thrived from the ninth through the 15th centuries. It can still be noted in many Mediterranean countries. The festival kicked off with the Tunisian troupe Almaloufajia of Andalusian music of Monastir led A living heritage. Nouba Al Andaloussia orchestra performs on stage during the Andalusian International Music Festival in Casablanca. by Mahmoud Frih. (Saad Guerraoui) “This kind of event helps con- solidate relations between cul- tures,” said Frih. Mohamed Briouel, followed with proud to see Casablanca revive a participation of solo artist Manel after knowing that the idea is less songs that thrilled the audience. heritage that has been preserved Gharbi. than 1 month old,” said Lahlou. “It The festival concluded with The Maghrebian orchestra, for 12 centuries. Dar El Gharnatia is one of the is a nucleus of a new start for An- founded in 2012, completed the “We are strengthening the oldest and most prestigious Anda- dalusian music in Casablanca and a breathtaking choral night’s schedule with a perfor- Maghrebian brotherhood through lusian music schools in Algeria. hopefully will be more successful performance by the mance that had audience mem- the festival,” said Ouazzani. “As The festival concluded with a in the future.” 80-member Nouba Al bers on their feet. The orchestra we succeeded in presenting a co- breathtaking choral performance Mohamed Najib Amour, presi- Andaloussia orchestra, demonstrated a perfect cohesion herent Maghrebian orchestra, we by the 80-member Nouba Al An- dent of the Prefectural City Council including Marouane Hajji. between artists from Algeria, Mo- hope that Maghrebian brother- daloussia orchestra, including Ma- of Casablanca, said the event was rocco and Tunisia, who played a hood will last forever.” rouane Hajji. organised within the framework The second evening included rich repertoire of Andalusian mu- The final night of the festival Moroccan singer and composer of the development programme of a Moroccan-Spanish band that sic. gave the audience at Moham- Nouamane Lahlou said Andalu- the prefecture of Casablanca that entertained with a blend of fla- Abdellah el-Ouazzani, a mem- med V Stadium a chance to enjoy sian music is a living heritage. seeks to address the aspirations of menco and Andalusian music. The ber of the Association of Andalu- songs by Dar El Gharnatia led by “This festival is a brilliant ini- Casablancans, particularly in the Abdelkrim Raiss orchestra, led by sian Music Amateurs, said he was Mohamed Charif Saoud with the tiative for Casablanca, especially cultural sector. Viewpoint Oman’s story shows Arab writers are finding their voice

ow much does the This is significant when stereo- world really know types across literature, film and Rashmee about Oman and television routinely link Islam and Roshan Lall what does it know Arabs with holy war and terror- about Arabs? Little ism. As the late Jack G. Shaheen, or nothing about author of “Reel Bad Arabs” and HOman. Of Arabs, it is mostly based other books on racial and ethnic on stories told about them by oth- stereotyping once said, hundreds ers. of Hollywood films in the last 50 This may be changing as Arab years have depicted Muslims as storytellers find their voice. One either “hostile alien intruders” or of these is Jokha al-Harthi, whose “lecherous, oily sheikhs intent on book “Celestial Bodies” won the using nuclear weapons.” Man Booker International Prize It will take more than one prize- for Literature. It’s the first novel winning novel set in Oman to translated from Arabic to win the change that but there is a grow- award. Harthi is the first Omani ing sense of more Arab writers woman to have a novel translated determinedly taking charge of the into English and “Celestial Bodies” narrative and telling their stories may be the first time an Anglo- Extraordinary talent. Omani author Jokha al-Harthi poses after and that of their communities to phone reader engaged with Oman winning the Man Booker International Prize in London, May 21. (AFP) far-flung audiences. on its own terms. In his 1978 book “Orientalism,” Truly, as Harthi said after she Edward Said argued that Western won the prize: “A window has familiar from other stories about The way Harthi tells the story, cultures historically stereotyped been opened.” She suggested other places, as well as from life Oman comes sharply into focus as the Middle East and its peoples readers will get to see “the rich elsewhere. They will recognise the a distinctive place and its people and cultures to justify control over Arabic culture” but it is the novel’s young mother and her stubborn acquire a distinct personality. it. There was the old trope of the specificity that makes it unique. It insistence on an unusual name — What this book by a small Scot- exotic region — a homogenous vividly paints a picture of Oman London — for the new baby; the fe- tish publisher shows is the story- place seemingly filled with mag- and its people, the struggles male doctor London who married teller’s unique power and ability to nificent palaces and flying carpets, against the British, the battle for in haste for love and repented at transmit a cultural identity. Coming as well as scenes straight out of modernity without making war on leisure; the youngest and pretti- from a rich, if sadly recently less “One Thousand and One Nights.” tradition. est sister’s decision to divorce her observed tradition of storytelling, There is also the more recent ter- In telling the story of Oman, neglectful husband after a decade Arab writers could prove to be a rorist trope. which is as much a character as of marriage. positive force for change of the Neither is true and Arabs them- The way Harthi tells the three sisters around whom the There are other familiar charac- world’s perception of a whole peo- selves are beginning to tell the real the story, Oman book revolves, Harthi smashed ters, albeit distinctly Omani — the ple. In the fictional daily rhythms story. comes sharply into a stereotype even as she built a capable female Bedouin entrepre- of life in a changing Oman — new The world is beginning to listen. bridge. Those who know nothing neur who refuses to marry and cities, fast-food, fast cars, mod- focus as a distinctive of Oman — or, for that matter, of elects to live as she pleases, the ern schools, women’s education, Rashmee Roshan Lall is a place and its people Arabs — will cleave to this account female slave who continues to be migration to Dubai and to Canada columnist for The Arab Weekly. of three generations, a changing loyal to her master even though — the world can see a reassuring re- Her blog can be found at www. acquire a distinct society and of love and loss. slavery has long since been out- flection of itself and of real people rashmee.com and she is on personality. They will find characters lawed in the country. living real lives in an Arab country. Twitter: @rashmeerl. 24 June 2, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Amman: Through June 5

Ramadan at The Boulevard is an event that features artisanal products exhibitions, tradition- al food, live entertainment, mu- sic and children’s workshops.

Dubai: Through June 8

“Whispers from the Past” is a showcase of works by Mohsen Khanji, an Aleppo- born philosopher who brings Arabic letters and subjects to life before his viewer’s eyes. Using various colours, textures and techniques, Khanji creates pieces full of metaphors and symbolism. The exhibition is on display at Le Patio, Habtoor (Ziad Maamari) Moussa Castle under a blanket of snow. Palace Dubai.

Marrakech: Moussa Castle: June 12-16 Founded by Jamel Debbouze, Le Marrakech du rire is a com- A life dream built edy festival that brings together actors from around the world.

Oman: stone by stone During June and July Taking place annually in Dhofar Samar Kadi work, he bought land where he province, the Salalah Tourism planned to build his castle. Festival hosts street shows, “Two weeks after we got married, concerts, games, fireworks, cul- Deir al-Qamar Moussa told me about his dream tural activities and food stalls and asked me to support him in for locals and tourists. he medieval-style castle realising it,” Marie Maamari said. with its impressive towers “It then became a challenge and a Rabat: in the heart of the Chouf dream for both of us.” June 21-29 Mountains, famous for its Maamari began to put his plan Told palaces and mansions, is neither into action in 1963, moving more The 18th Mawazine Festival ancient nor a vestige from the past. than 6,000 huge rocks, some of takes place in Rabat and fea- Still it has been drawing more tour- them weighing 150 kilograms, to tures international and local ists than any other site in the his- the castle site. musical performances. torical region. “Depending on how much cash Moussa Castle is unique because we had, we could sometimes hire Amman: it was built by Lebanese visionary the help of workers. At one point, The late Moussa Maamari outside his castle. (Ziad Maamari) June 25-29 Moussa Maamari, who handcrafted we had to mortgage the land to every stone with his own hands secure cash to continue construc- Al Balad Music Festival is a with the help of his wife, Marie. tion,” Marie Maamari recalled. coffee to men in a diwan. his wife and children. week-long music carnival that “Since he was 14, Moussa was ob- Moussa Maamari carved every The ground floor includes a scene “It was such an emotional mo- celebrates Jordan’s cultural sessed by the castle of his dream. stone and sculpted the figurines of the Last Supper depicting Jesus ment. That girl’s attitude was the heritage. Contemporary bands, It was a childhood dream that took and statues representing various and his disciples as well as hydrauli- trigger of his dream. Everything soloists and other performers 60 years to come true,” said Marie scenes of Lebanese village life from cally moveable figurines performing you see here is his work. The castle are scheduled to appear in the Maamari. the 19th century. various crafts and manual activities he has built has become one of the ancient Roman Odeon in Am- She said it started when Moussa “Today, the castle is a museum as reminders of Lebanese herit- most successful tourist projects. In man. Maamari, who was born in a poor that recounts Lebanese heritage age. In a corner, the tools used by fact, the castle made him immor- family, was chastised by his teacher across ages, showing the simple life Maamari while carving the stones tal,” said Marie Maamari. Carthage: for drawing a sketch of his dream in the villages and designed to teach are displayed. “It was hard, challenging and tire- July 12-August 23 castle during class and after his Lebanese children about heritage One can see a model of the class- some but we had faith and hope in unrequited first love snubbed him, and traditions. The statues that room where Moussa sat as a child our dream,” she added. The International Festival of saying “my father has a palace, you Moussa sculpted are those of village with statues depicting the teacher Moussa Maamari died in January Carthage is one of the old- don’t.” He then replied: “I will build people that he has known and who who beat him and students who 2018 at the age of 87 but his legacy est arts and cultural events in a castle for you.” were part of his life,” said Maamari’s mocked him when he drew pictures is carried on by his sons. North Africa, drawing a mix of Building the castle became a chal- son Ziad Maamari, who runs the of the castle of his dreams. The The castle receives thousands of local and international per- lenge as much as a dream. Maamari place with his two brothers. original sketch of the castle that the visitors per year, providing a sig- formers to Tunisia over sev- left school at 14 and went to Sidon After crossing a bridge leading teacher had torn survived and is on nificant of income for the creator’s eral weeks. Performances take in southern Lebanon, where he to the entrance of the two-level display. family, with an entry fee of 15,000 place at the Amphitheatre of worked with his uncle in restoring “mediaeval castle,” visitors step The fort features a museum of Lebanese pounds ($10) for adults Carthage. the city’s Crusader fortress. He was into a large space where scenes ancient weapons that exhibits some and 5,000 pounds ($3.30) for chil- tasked by Emir Maurice Chehab, the of a bygone time are represented. 18,000 pieces, including rifles, dag- dren under 12. Byblos: head of Lebanon’s Antiquities De- The models are full of life. There gers, swords, pikes and bayonets. July 12-August 24 partment, to renovate castles and are scenes of a woman grinding Maamari invited the girl who Website: www.moussacastle.com. archaeological discoveries, includ- wheat, a man sewing clothes, an- had snubbed him 60 years earlier Byblos International Festival ing at Beiteddine Palace. other riding a donkey, a blacksmith to visit his castle as he had vowed. Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly in the ancient Phoenician port With money he saved from his working and a woman serving She accepted the invitation and met Travel and Society section editor. city of Byblos, north of Beirut, features international rock bands and pop singers. This year’s schedule includes French singer Mark Lavoine, Mashrou’ Leila and Queen Symphonic.

Beiteddine: July 18-August 10

The annual Beiteddine Art Festival, in the Chouf moun- tains, includes a variety of performances from opera and concerts to theatre and art exhi- bitions. The festival welcomes more than 50,000 visitors as well as numerous star performers.

We welcome submissions of calendar items related to cultural events of interest to travellers in the Middle East and North Africa.

Please send tips to: A model of Moussa Maamari’s classroom on display at the Moussa The late Moussa Maamari and his wife Marie work on the [email protected] Castle. (Samar Kadi) construction of the Moussa Castle in the early 1960s. (Ziad Maamari)