Latin America Outlook

An exclusive survey from Latin Business Chronicle on 's 2009 business, economic, technology and political outlook and key challenges.

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SPECIAL REPORTS Latin Economy: Mixed Outlook CEO Perspective Latin America’s Political Outlook Latin America Inflation Falls Latin Outlook: Trade, FDI Drops Latin Technology: Cautious Optimism

Q&A’S ON THE OUTLOOK CEO Q&A on Outlook Expert Q&A on Outlook Technology Outlook Q&A Trade & Investment Outlook Q&A

Q&A’S ON THE CHALLENGES CEO Q&A on Challenges Expert Q&A on Challenges Q&A on Latin Technology Challenges

SPECIAL REPORTS

Latin Business Chronicle, January 7, 2009 Latin Economy: Mixed Outlook

As Latin America faces its worst economic performance in seven years, economists warn against populism and protectionism.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

After five years of strong growth, Latin America is bracing for a slowdown this year. The region’s GDP will likely grow by 1.9 percent in 2009, forecasts the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). That will be its worst result since 2002, when the region grew by 0.5 percent. In some cases – like Guatemala and El Salvador – this year’s results are the worst since the 1980’s, while another five nations will see their worst performance since the 1990’s. Half of Latin America’s countries…

Keywords: Argentina, Bolivia, , Bulltick Securities, , Colombia, Costa Rica, , Dom. Rep, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, , Honduras, IHS Global Insight, JP Morgan, Mexico, Nicaragua, , Paraguay, Peru, ,

Latin Business Chronicle, December 17, 2008 CEO Perspective

How do the Latin America heads of prominent multinationals see the outlook in the region next year?

BY JOACHIM BAMRUD Latin America will face serious challenges next year – especially tighter credit and cost-cutting – but the region is now in better shape than it has been during previous crisis and still offers good opportunities, according to Latin America division heads of leading U.S. and European multinationals surveyed by Latin Business Chronicle.”No country anywhere can completely escape the effects of the economic slowdown, even if that country possesses abundant natural resources or enjoys internal prosperity,” says John Slater, vice president for Latin America and the Caribbean for U.S.-based Continental Airlines.

Keywords: APC, Continental Airlines, DHL, Emerson, General Motors, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Nokia, Novartis, SAP

Latin Business Chronicle, January 19, 2009 Latin America’s Political Outlook

Will Chavez and Morales win referendums? Will Chile turn right? We take a closer look at Latin America's political outlook this year.

BY JOACHIM BAMRUD

While Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez still garners most of the media headlines from Latin America these days, there are plenty of other political developments in the region that merit just as much, or more, attention.

Latin America will hold six presidential elections this year in addition to six legislative ones and two major referendums that could decide the future of Bolivia and Venezuela. Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama and Uruguay are scheduled to hold presidential elections between March and December, while Mexico will hold a key congressional poll in July.

Keywords: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Uruguay, Venezuela

Latin Business Chronicle, January 12, 2009 Latin America Inflation Falls

A country-by-country overview of the inflation outlook this year in Latin America.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

Latin American inflation is falling thanks to the economic slowdown hitting the region. However, Venezuela may actually experience even higher inflation, economists say.

All in all, Latin America should see an average inflation rate of 7.3 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund predicts. Last year posted an average of 8.8 percent inflation, the highest level since 2003, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Eight countries will see double-digit rates, while 11 countries will post single-digit rates under the regional average, according to a Latin Business Chronicle analysis.

Keywords: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dom. Rep, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela

Latin Business Chronicle, December 17, 2008 Latin Outlook: Trade, FDI Drops

Latin America's trade and FDI will likely drop by double-digits, but Brazil will likely manage to cope better than most countries.

BY JOACHIM BAMRUD

Latin America's foreign trade -- as well as foreign direct investment in the region -- is expected to fall next year as a result of the global economic crisis, experts say. However, there are big differences between individual countries, with some -- like Brazil -- faring better than others -- like Mexico."FDI will slow significantly, as well trade," says Jerry Haar. "However, a slowdown is not a shutdown."

Trade will likely fall by 25 percent next year, while FDI could fall by 40-50 percent compared to this year, says Beatrice Rangel, president of U.S.-based AMLA Consulting. ”Trade and investment flows are likely to ebb with most countries,” says Adrean Scheid Rothkopf, Executive Vice President of the Association of American Chambers of Commerce in Latin America (AACCLA).

Latin Business Chronicle, December 18, 2008 Latin Technology: Cautious Optimism

Latin America's technology sector should benefit next year from a strong base. Colombia, Mexico and Brazil will lead the way in growth.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

While there is growing concern among many business leaders in Latin America, the technology sector remains relatively upbeat. "Despite the overall economic downturn, we are cautiously optimistic about 2009," says Rui da Costa, managing director for Latin America and Caribbean for U.S.-based Hewlett-Packard, the world's largest PC manufacturer. “Latin America will have a good year as far as technology goes,” says Fernando Garcia, vice president for Latin America for U.S.-based American Power Conversion (APC).

Keywords: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, HP, Kyocera, Mexico, Microsoft, Qualcomm, SAP

Q&A: THE OUTLOOK

Latin Business Chronicle, December 17, 2008 CEO Q&A on Outlook

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading business executives about Latin America's outlook in 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

How do you view the business outlook for Latin America in 2009? Latin Business Chronicle asked the top executives at the Latin America divisions of nine U.S. and European multinational companies. Our CEO panel includes:

• Rodolpho Cardenuto, president and CEO of Latin America for SAP, Germany • Roger Crook, CEO, International Americas, DHL Express, USA • Carlos Garcia, Latin American Regional Head for Novartis, Switzerland • Fernando Garcia, vice president for Latin America for U.S.-based American Power Conversion (APC), USA • Maureen Kempston Darkes, President, Latin America, Africa and Middle East, General Motors, USA • Olivier Puech, Latin America vice president for Nokia, Finland • Hernan Rincon, Latin America president for Microsoft, USA • Leo Rodriguez, President of Latin America for Emerson and Emerson Process Management, USA • John Slater, Vice President, Latin America and the Caribbean, Continental Airlines, USA

Latin Business Chronicle: How do you view the business outlook for Latin America in 2009? Crook: No doubt, 2009 will be a challenging year. The world economy has changed dramatically in the last three months. While…

Latin Business Chronicle, December 17, 2008 Expert Q&A on Outlook

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading experts about Latin America's outlook for 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

How do you view the business outlook for Latin America in 2009? Latin Business Chronicle asked leading experts in the United States, Europe and Asia. Our panel of experts includes:

• Jerry Haar, Associate Dean and Professor in the College of Business Administration, Florida International University, USA • Beatrice Rangel, president AMLA Consulting, USA • Adrean Scheid Rothkopf, Executive Vice President of the Association of American Chambers of Commerce in Latin America (AACCLA) • Peter Rösler, deputy general manager of the German business association Lateinamerika Verein • Jiang Shixue, Vice President, Chinese Association of Latin American Studies • Douglas Smith, Regional Head of Research Americas for Standard Charter Bank, UK • Ryoji Watanabe, Researcher, Latin America Division, Overseas Research Department, JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization)

Latin Business Chronicle: How do you view the business outlook for Latin America in 2009? Haar: The business outlook, in general, is gloomy. All countries will feel the sustained pain of an economic downturn, some worse than others. Countries that …

Latin Business Chronicle, December 18, 2008 Technology Outlook Q&A

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading business executives about Latin America's technology outlook in 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

How do you view the technology outlook for Latin America in 2009? Latin Business Chronicle asked the top executives at the Latin America divisions of seven U.S. and European multinational companies. Our panel includes:

• Rodolpho Cardenuto, president and CEO of Latin America for SAP, Germany • Rui da Costa, managing director for Latin America and Caribbean for Hewlett- Packard, USA • Julio Gaitan, Senior Director of International Sales, Kyocera Wireless, USA • Fernando Garcia, vice president for Latin America for American Power Conversion (APC), USA • Flavio Mansi, President, Latin America, Qualcomm, USA • Olivier Puech, Latin America vice president for Nokia, Finland • Hernan Rincon, Latin America president for Microsoft, USA

Latin Business Chronicle: How do you view the technology outlook for Latin America in 2009?

Da Costa: Despite the overall economic downturn, we are cautiously optimistic about 2009.

Garcia: Companies should seize this moment to bet on technology, which will play a dominant role and will...

Latin Business Chronicle, December 17, 2008 Trade & Investment Outlook Q&A

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading experts about Latin America's foreign trade and investment outlook in 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

What impact will the global crisis have on foreign investment in, and trade with, Latin America in 2009? Latin Business Chronicle asked leading experts in the United States, Europe and Asia. Our panel of experts includes:

• Jerry Haar, Associate Dean and Professor in the College of Business Administration, Florida International University, USA • Beatrice Rangel, president AMLA Consulting, USA • Adrean Scheid Rothkopf, Executive Vice President of the Association of American Chambers of Commerce in Latin America (AACCLA) • Peter Rösler, deputy general manager of the German business association Lateinamerika Verein • Jiang Shixue, Vice President, Chinese Association of Latin American Studies • Ryoji Watanabe, Researcher, Latin America Division, Overseas Research Department, JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization)

Latin Business Chronicle: What impact will the global crisis have on foreign investment in, and trade with, Latin America in 2009?

Rangel: Large infrastructure projects that failed to secure financing in the United States and Europe or from multilateral sources will either be…

Latin Business Chronicle, January 19, 2009 Latin America’s Political Outlook Q&A

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading experts about Latin America's political outlook in 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

What is Latin America's political outlook in 2009? Will there be any radical changes? Latin Business Chronicle asked four leading experts. Our panel includes:

• Jerry Haar, Associate Dean and Professor in the College of Business Administration, Florida International University • Beatrice Rangel, president AMLA Consulting • William Ratliff, research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University • Riordan Roett, director of the Latin America studies program at Johns Hopkins University

Latin Business Chronicle: How do you view the political outlook in Latin America in 2009? Will there be any radical changes?

Ratliff: Political tensions and radicalization are likely to increase in much of Latin America as wounded capitalism and international…

THE CHALLENGES

Latin Business Chronicle, December 17, 2008 CEO Q&A on Challenges

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading business executives about Latin America's key challenges in 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

What will be the main challenges facing business in Latin America in 2009? Latin Business Chronicle asked the top executives at the Latin America divisions of nine U.S. and European multinational companies. Our CEO panel includes:

• Rodolpho Cardenuto, president and CEO of Latin America for SAP, Germany • Roger Crook, CEO, International Americas, DHL Express, USA • Carlos Garcia, Latin American Regional Head for Novartis, Switzerland • Fernando Garcia, vice president for Latin America for U.S.-based American Power Conversion (APC), USA • Maureen Kempston Darkes, President, Latin America, Africa and Middle East, General Motors, USA • Olivier Puech, Latin America vice president for Nokia, Finland • Hernan Rincon, Latin America president for Microsft, USA • Leo Rodriguez, President of Latin America for Emerson and Emerson Process Management, USA • John Slater, Vice President, Latin America and the Caribbean, Continental Airlines, USA

Latin Business Chronicle: What will be the main challenges facing business in the region in 2009?

Rincon: There’s no doubt that the current economic situation presents difficult challenges for businesses of all kinds, in every industry. The reality …

Latin Business Chronicle, December 17, 2008 Expert Q&A on Challenges

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading experts about Latin America's key challenges in 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

What will be the main challenges facing business in the region in 2009? Latin Business Chronicle asked leading experts in the United States, Europe and Asia. Our panel of experts includes:

• Jerry Haar, Associate Dean and Professor in the College of Business Administration, Florida International University, USA • Beatrice Rangel, president AMLA Consulting, USA • Adrean Scheid Rothkopf, Executive Vice President of the Association of American Chambers of Commerce in Latin America (AACCLA) • Peter Rösler, deputy general manager of the German business association Lateinamerika Verein • Jiang Shixue, Vice President, Chinese Association of Latin American Studies • Douglas Smith, Regional Head of Research Americas for Standard Charter Bank, UK • Ryoji Watanabe, Researcher, Latin America Division, Overseas Research Department, JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization)

Latin Business Chronicle: What will be the main challenges facing business in the region in 2009?

Jiang: The main challenges for Latin America in 2009 will include: 1) how to maintain macroeconomic stability; 2) how to expand exports; and 3) how to stimulate greater domestic demand.

Smith: A key issue for consumers will be …

Latin Business Chronicle, December 18, 2008 Q&A on Latin Technology Challenges

Latin Business Chronicle asks leading business executives about Latin America's key technology challenges in 2009.

BY CHRONICLE STAFF

What will be the main challenges facing technology in the region in 2009? Latin Business Chronicle asked the top executives at the Latin America divisions of seven U.S. and European multinational companies. Our panel includes:

• Rodolpho Cardenuto, president and CEO of Latin America for SAP, Germany • Rui da Costa, managing director for Latin America and Caribbean for Hewlett- Packard, USA • Julio Gaitan, Senior Director of International Sales, Kyocera Wireless, USA • Fernando Garcia, vice president for Latin America for American Power Conversion (APC), USA • Flavio Mansi, President, Latin America, Qualcomm, USA • Olivier Puech, Latin America vice president for Nokia, Finland • Hernan Rincon, Latin America president for Microsoft, USA

Latin Business Chronicle: What will be the main challenges facing technology in the region in 2009?

Mansi: The current economic situation will be one of the challenges to overcome during 2009, not just in this industry but in general; however the fact that the two largest operators in the region announced their intentions to invest in their networks is a good sign that 3G will continue expanding in the region. Also…