Introduction to Political Inquiry

Duke University Political Science 130 Introduction to Political Inquiry Spring 2014 Lectures: MW 1:40 - 2:30 pm, Gross Hall, Room 103 course website at https://sakai.duke.edu/portal/site/b71e1117-5734-41dd-b9c6-3379dd2c1bd0 Prof. Tim Büthe Dept. of Political Science 219 Gross Hall (919) 660-4365; [email protected] office hours: after each class, Wednesdays, 2:30 - 3:30pm, and by appointment Sections: Thursdays: 4:55 - 5:45 pm, 319 Gray Building 6:30 - 7:20 pm, 304I Allen Building Fridays: 10:20 - 11:10 am, 108A, West Duke Building 12:00 - 12:50 pm, 242 Carr Building TAs: Guadalupe Rojo and Shahryar Minhas

Purpose PS130 is intended as an introduction to the systematic study of politics as a social science. It is organized around major questions for the study of domestic politics and/or international relations and the key challenges that arise in trying to answer them. So we examine issues such as polarization in U.S. politics, the relationship between inequality and democracy, the security dilemma in international relations, efforts to foster free and fair elections in new or struggling democracies, and innovations in global governance. Debates over these topics often turn on differences in how to conceptualize something as ubiquitous as power, how to measure a core concept such as democracy, or how to gather and summarize basic information about the phenomenon in question. We will learn a number of useful tools for such descriptive inferences, which will put you in a stronger position to distinguish rhetorical flourishes from meaningful differences in election forecasts, political parties' policy positions, cross-national measures of political institutions, etc. We then move from asking descriptive questions to asking more analytical ones, such as: Why do some get-out-the-vote efforts increase voter turnout when others do not? Does it matter —for local public policy or inter-state militarized conflicts—whether policymakers are women or men? Why do policies for AIDS prevention and treatment differ so much across countries? Why is public policy more responsive to the interests of some groups than others? Political scientists seek to answer such questions by developing positive (as opposed to normative) theories of political phenomena and conducting empirical analyses to assess those explanations. In examining prominent answers to these and similar important questions, we will focus on key problems of causal inference in social analysis and examine how political scientists deal with those problems. The course thus offers an introduction to a broad range of methods used in empirical inquiry in political science, including the assumptions underpinning those methods. As taught in Spring 2014, PS130 is intended as a true introductory course. Students are not expected (i.e., not required) to have taken previous courses in Political Science, nor does the course have any prerequisites in math, statistics, or methods--though I do expect familiarity with standard high school algebra and a willingness to use it.

1 Requirements The required readings and lectures for this course are complements, not substitutes. We will cover a lot of material in lectures and in sections that is not in the required readings. Attendance—and active participation—is therefore crucial (including the ability to listen to, and constructively engage with, your peers). Your grade will be based on class participation (30%), four short assignments (40%), and a final exam (30%). The participation grade will be based on participation in both lectures and sections, including performance on regular single- or multi-question quizzes in class, for which we will use i>clickers (see below). I will allow (after the first full week of classes), up to 4 absences from lecture and 2 absences from section, excused or unexcused; participation will be downgraded for additional absences unless all absences are due to a documented serious medical condition or required attendance at athletic events. The four short assignments, at least one of which will be a small-group exercise, will ask students to apply the analytical tools that we learn in specific contexts and/or to a question of each student's own choosing. Each short assignment will be handed out on a Wednesday (2/12, 2/26, 3/19, and 4/2) and will be due the immediately following Sunday by 8pm. You are welcome—and I encourage you—to form study groups, but note that each student's graded written work must be individually produced, except for the small-group exercise. Also, each student in PS130 is expected to participate in at least one course-specific experiment in the Political Science Experimental Research Subject Pool (PSRP). In addition, students may participate in further studies in the PSRP on a strictly voluntary basis for up to 3% extra credit. More information about this opportunity will be available in class during the second week of classes and at http://www.duke.edu/web/psrp If you wish to participate, you can register at: http://duke-psrp.sona-systems.com by February 21.

Readings The 7 books below are available for purchase at the Duke Bookstore, since we use numerous selections from them (one copy of each of them is also on reserve at Perkins Library). Required readings that are not contained in these books are available online via Duke's electronic journal holdings (indicated by "online" below), or they are on electronic reserves (e-res). Occasionally, a reading may be available via the course website (cws). PP: Pollock, Philip H. The Essentials of Political Analysis. 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012. Pollock, Philip H. Stata Companion to Political Analysis. 2nd edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2010. Note: This supplemental text is only recommended for students who anticipate doing applied data anlaysis for research papers or a senior thesis. It is also on reserve. LB: Bartels, Larry M. Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Guilded Age. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008. Also available as PDF e-book from Duke library. B&M: Büthe, Tim and Walter Mattli. New Global Rulers: The Privatization of Regulation in the World Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011. MG: Gilens, Martin. Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012. DH: Huff, Darrell. How to Lie With Statistics. New York: Norton, 1993. JK: Kelley, Judith G. Monitoring Democracy: When International Election Observations Works, and Why It Often Fails. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012.

2 Required readings for each class are listed below. You should generally do them before the lecture for which they are assigned. For some classes, the syllabus also lists "further readings." Those readings are listed only to provide a starting point for students who might wish to follow up on the topic of that particular lecture; none of them are required to get an "A" in this course.

i>Clickers Throughout the course, we will use "i>Clicker" to allow instantaneous interactive feedback on the material as well as conduct some quizzes and surveys in class. You therefore need to purchase an i>Clicker2 or, if you have a compatible phone such as an iPhone, install and register the i>Clicker GO app (and bring your phone to class). Details about the technology can be found at http://www1.iclicker.com/ There is a sizeable "secondary market" in i>Clickers at Duke, supported by the Center for Instructional Technology might allow you to purchase a used one more economically. You can find a list of fellow students offering their gently used i>Clicker2 devices at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkY2lFgS9uiDdE1fMkZUZnp6alJDSG9tYlIwT FJWdnc#gid=0 You can also put yourself on the list as wanting to buy one.

Software and Help We will be using a statistical software called STATA for those parts of the course where we work with data (from descriptive statistics to regression). You can buy a temporary "license" to install this software on your own computer. Those student licenses, available via the Duke OIT software webpages, are heavily discounted. But you do not need to have it on your own computer: You can also find Stata installed on the computers in most campus computer labs. The Social Science Research Institute (SSRI, on the second floor of Gross Hall) has a great help desk, staffed by statistical consultants who are available for walk-in help from 10am to 6pm Monday through Friday. Alexandra Cooper from SSRI, who manages the help desk, will give you an overview of this very valuable support resource during one of the classes in week 3 of the course.

WHAT IS POLITICAL SCIENCE?

Introductions (Wed, Jan. 8) No assigned readings.

The Study of Politics as a Social Science (Mon, Jan. 13) Prof. Michael Gillespie will co-teach online Parker, Roger. "Ballo in Maschera: Melodramma in Three Acts by Giuseppe Verdi to a libretto by Antonio Somma after Eugène Scribe's libretto Gustave III, ou Le bal masqué" In The New Grove Dictionary of Opera. Available via Oxford Music Online at http://www.oxfordmusiconline.com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/subscriber/article/grove/music/O900413 online Verdi, Giuseppe. Un Ballo in Maschera. Madrid (Spain): Teatro Real, 28 September 2008, available for streaming via Duke's subscription to Naxos Video Library: http://dukeu.naxosvideolibrary.com.proxy.lib.duke.edu/title/OA1017D/ Watch as much as you want, but required is only Act 3, Part 2, which starts at 1:47:20; it can be accessed by clicking on the "Chapters" tab on the right of the Naxos Video Library. Act 3, Part 2 corresponds to "chapters" 23 ("Forse la soglia attinse") through 28 ("Ella e pura"). I recommend watching in full screen mode, and unless your Italian is good enough, be sure to turn on English subtitles.

3 e-res Watts, Duncan J. ["Preface" (read) and Chapter 1 ("The Myth of Common Sense", skim) in:] Everything Is Obvious—Once You Know the Answer. New York: Crown Business, 2011: ix-xvi, 3-29. cws Wikipedia. [Selections from the Entry on:] "Science." Published online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science (accessed 1/6/2014).

Foreign Aid and Its Critics: A Policy-Relevant Illustration of Key Themes of PS130 (Wed, Jan. 15) e-res Moyo, Dambisa. [Selections from:] Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There is A Better Way for Africa. New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2009: xviii-xx, 3-9, 44-47, 48-68. DH Huff, Darrell. "The Semiattached Figure", "Post Hoc Rides Again" and "How to Talk Back to a Statistic." In How to Lie With Statistics. New York: Norton, 1993: 74-86, 87-99, 122-142.

Monday, Jan. 20 (Martin Luther King Holiday): NO CLASS

DESCRIPTIVE INFERENCE

Power and Democracy: From Concepts to Measurements (Wed, Jan. 22)

PP Pollock, Philip H. "Chapter 1: The Definition and Measurement of Concepts." In The Essentials of Political Analysis. 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012: 6-22. online Baldwin, David A. "The Costs of Power." Journal of Conflict Resolution vol.15 no.2 (June 1971): 145-155. Further Reading King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba. "Chapter 2: Descriptive Inference." Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994: 34-71. Goertz, Gary. "Chapter 2: Structuring and Theorizing Concepts." In Social Science Concepts: A User's Guide. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006: 27-67. Adcock, Robert and David Collier. "Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research." American Political Science Review vol.95 no.3 (September 2001): 529-546.

Dahl, Robert A. "The Concept of Power." Behavioral Science vol.2 nol.3 (July 1957): 201-215. Bachrach, Peter and Morton S. Baratz. "Two Faces of Power." American Political Science Review vol.56 no.4 (December 1962): 947-952. Lukes, Steven. Power: A Radical View. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004: esp. ch.1, intro (pp. 14-59, 1-13). Cox, Robert W. "Gramsci, Hegemony and International Relations: An Essay in Method." Millennium: Journal of International Studies (London) vol.12 no.2 (Summer 1983): 162-175.

Munck, Gerardo L. and Jay Verkuilen. "Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy." Comparative Political Studies vol.35 no.1 (February 2002): 5-34.

Just How Polarized Is U.S. Politics? Measurements, Variables, and Distributions Profs. John Aldrich and David Rohde will co-teach (Mon, Jan. 27)

DH Huff, Darrell. "The Well-Chosen Average." In How to Lie With Statistics. New York: Norton, 1993: 27-37.

4 PP Pollock, Philip H. "Chapter 2: Measuring and Describing Variables." In The Essentials of Political Analysis. 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012: 28-47. cws Background reading on polarization in U.S. politics TBA. Further Readings Moore, Will H. and David A. Siegel. [Part III: "Probability." In:] A Mathematics Course for Political and Social Research. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013: 173-272.

Democracy and (In)Equality: Do Democratic and Republican Economic Policies Differ? Probability and Distributions (Wed, Jan. 29)

PP Pollock, Philip H. [Selections TBA from chs. 3, 5, 7 from:] The Essentials of Political Analysis. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012. LB Bartels, Larry M. [Selections from chapter 1 ("The New Guilded Age") and all of chapter 2 ("The Partisan Political Economy"). In:] Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Guilded Age. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008: 1(top)-3(middle), 6(middle)- 13(bottom), 19(top)-20(bottom), 23(middle)-24(middle); 29-63. Further Reading Schlozman, Kay Lehman, Sidney Verba, and Henry E. Brady. The Unheavenly Chorus: Unequal Political Voice and the Broken Promise of American Democracy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012.

CAUSALITY

What's a Cause? Causality and Causal Inference (Mon, Feb. 3)

PP Pollock, Philip H. [Beginning of chapter 3:] "Proposing Explanations, Framing Hypotheses, and Making Comparisons." In The Essentials of Political Analysis. 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012: 48-54. e-res Johnson, Janet Buttolph and H. T. Reynolds. [Beginning of chapter 6:] "Research Design: Making Causal Inferences." In Political Science Research Methods. 7th edition. Los Angeles: Sage/CQ Press, 2012: 165-184. online Lehrer, Jonah. "Trials and Errors: Why Science is Failing Us." Wired vol.20 no.1 (January 2012): 102-117. (online at http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/12/ff_causation/) Further Reading Mackie, J. L. "Causes and Conditions." American Philosophical Quarterly vol.2 no.4 (October 1965): 245-264. Tilly, Charles. "Why Give Reasons?" In Why? Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006: 1-31. Pearl, Judea. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. 2nd edition. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009. Mahoney, James. "Strategies of Causal Assessment in Comparative Historical Analysis." In Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences, edited by James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003: 337-372.

EXPERIMENTS

Gender and Violent Conflict; Participation and Legitimacy in Global Governance: Lab Experiments (Wed, Feb. 5) online McDermott, Rose, Dominic Johnson, Jonathan Cowden, and Stephen Rosen. "Testosterone and Aggression in a Simulated Crisis Game." Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science vol.614 no.1 (November 2007): 15-33.

5 B&M Büthe, Tim and Walter Mattli. [Chapters 1 and 9: "The Rise of Private Regulation in the World Economy" and "Implications for Global Governance." In: ] The New Global Rulers: The Privatization of Regulation in the World Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011: 1-16, 214-226. Note: These chapters from Büthe & Mattli 2011 provide the background to understanding the survey experiment on innovations in global governance in which all students will participate, and which we will then jointly examine in class; they also serve as background information for the week on sampling and surveys. Further Reading Tomz, Michael, and Robert P. Van Houweling. "The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity." American Political Science Review vol.103 no.1 (February 2009): 83-98. Tomz, Michael. "Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach." International Organization vol.61 no.4 (Fall 2007): 821-840.

How to Increase Voter Turnout: Field Experiments (Mon, Feb. 10) e-res Green, Donald P. and Alan S. Gerber. "Introduction: Why Voter Mobilization Matters." In Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout. Washington: Brookings Institution, 2008: 1-11. online Gerber, Alan S., Donald P. Green, and Christopher W. Larimer. "Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment." American Political Science Review vol.102 no.1 (February 2008): 33-48. e-res Green, Donald P. and Alan S. Gerber. [Selection from:] "What Works, What Doesn't, and What's Next." In Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout. Washington: Brookings Institution, 2008: 135-140. Further Reading Mutz, Diana C. Population-Based Field Experiments. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011. Wantchekon, Leonard. "Clientilism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Benin." World Politics vol.55 no.3 (April 2003): 399-422. Henrich, Joseph, Robert Boyd, Samuel Bowles, Colin Camerer, Ernst Fehr, and Herbert Gintis. Foundations of Human Sociality: Economic Experiments and Ethnographic Evidence from Fifteen Small-Scale Societies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003.

Does It Matter Whether Policymakers Are Women or Men? "Natural" Experiments (Wed, Feb. 12) online Chattopadhyay, Raghabendra, and Esther Duflo. "Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India." Econometrica vol.72 no.5 (September 2004): 1409-1443. Further Reading Dunning, Thad. Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. Posner, Daniel N. "The Political Salience of Cultural Difference: Why Chewas and Tumbukas Are Allies in Zambia and Adversaries in Malawi." American Political Science Review vol.98 no.4 (November 2004): 529-545.

ANALYZING OBSERVATIONAL DATA: REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Introduction to OLS Regression 1 (Mon, Feb. 17)

PP Pollock, Philip H. "Chapter 6: Foundations of Statistical Inference." In The Essentials of Political Analysis. 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012: 122-154, esp. 122-144.

6 Introduction to OLS Regression 2 (Wed, Feb. 19)

PP Pollock, Philip H. "Correlation and Linear Regresssion." In The Essentials of Political Analysis. 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012: 182-211, esp. 182-201. LB Bartels, Larry M. "Chapter 4: Partisan Biases in Economic Accountability." In Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Guilded Age. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008: 98-126.

Who Governs in U.S. Politics? (Mon, Feb. 24)

PP Pollock, Philip H. [Selection from:] "Logistic Regression." In The Essentials of Political Analysis. 4th edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2012: 212-223, only. MG Gilens, Martin. [Selections from chapter 1 ("Citizen Competence and Democratic Decisionmaking"), all of chapter 2 ("Data and Methods"), selection from chapter 3 ("The Preference/Policy Link"), and all of chapter 7 ("Parties, Elections, and Democratic Responsiveness.") In:] Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012: 12-29, 41-49; 50-69; 70-85; 162-192.

Fostering Democracy from the Outside? The Effect(ivenes)s of Election Monitoring Prof. Judith Kelley will co-teach (Wed, Feb. 26)

JK Kelley, Judith G. [Chapter 1 ("Introduction"), Appendix A ("Data Description"), selections from Appendix D ("Description of the Matching Process"), and chapter 7 ("Are Monitored Elections Better?") from:] Monitoring Democracy: When International Election Observations Works, and Why It Often Fails. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012: 1-15, 181- 194, 199-201, 112-130.

CASE STUDIES & CASE SELECTION

Exploratory, Hypothesis-Generating Case Studies (Mon, Mar. 3) e-res Van Evera, Stephen. "What Are Case Studies? How Should They Be Performed?" In Guide to Methodology for Students of Political Science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997: 49-88. Further Reading Munck, Gerardo L. "Tools for Qualitative Research." In Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, edited by Henry E. Brady and David Collier. 1st edition. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2004: 105-121. Goertz, Gary, and James Mahoney. "Causes-of-Effects versus Effects-of-Causes." In A Tale of Two Cultures: Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012: 41-50. Freedman, David A. "On Types of Scientific Inquiry: The Role of Qualitative Reasoning." In Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, edited by Henry E. Brady and David Collier. 2nd edition. Lanham, MD: Roman and Littlefield, 2010: 221-236.

Kaufmann, Chaim D., and Robert A. Pape. "Explaining Costly International Moral Action: Britain's Sixty-year Campaign Against the Atlantic Slave Trade." International Organization vol.53 no.4 (Autumn 1999): 631-668..

Ethnic Politics and Public Health (Treatment and Prevention of AIDS): Causal Process Tracing in Case Studies (Wed, Mar. 5) e-res Lieberman, Evan S. [Chapters 1 and 5: "Introduction" and "A Model-Testing Case Study of Strong Ethnic Boundaries and AIDS Policy in India." In:] Boundaries of Contagion: How Ethnic

7 Politics Have Shaped Government Responses to AIDS. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009: 1-24, 173-238. [Ch.1 is also available online at http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8935.pdf] Further Reading Collier, David, Henry E. Brady, and Jason Seawright. "Sources of Leverage in Causal Inference: Toward an Alternative View of Methodology." In Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, edited by Henry E. Brady and David Collier. 2nd edition. Lanham, MD: Roman and Littlefield, 2010: 161-199. Levi, Margaret. "Conscription: The Price of Citizenship." In Analytic Narratives, edited by Robert H. Bates, et al. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998: 109-147.

March 10-16: SPRING BREAK

Selecting Cases for Case Studies (Mon, Mar. 17) online Seawright, Jason, and John Gerring. "Case Selection Techniques in Case Study Research: A Menu of Qualitative and Quantitative Options." Political Research Quarterly vol.61 no.2 (June 2008): 294-308. online Mahoney, James, and Gary Goertz. "The Possibility Principle: Choosing Negative Cases in Comparative Research." American Political Science Review vol.98 no.4 (November 2004): 653-669.

The Effect of Political Institutions: Mixed-Methods Case Studies (Wed, Mar. 19) Prof. Pablo Beramendi will co-teach cws Beramendi, Pablo and David Rueda. "Inequality and Institutions: The Case of Economic Coordination." Annual Review of Political Science vol.17 (2014), forthcoming.

WHERE DATA COME FROM (1): SURVEY RESEARCH

Sampling and Surveys (Mon, Mar. 24) th e-res Babbie, Earl. "The Logic of Sampling." In The Basics of Social Research. 12 edition. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Publishing Company, 2010: 187-227. DH Huff, Darrell. "The Sample with the Built-in Bias." In How to Lie With Statistics. New York: Norton, 1993: 11-26. online Krosnick, Jon A. "Question Wording and Reports of Survey Results: The Case of Louis Harris and Associates and Aetna Life and Casualty." Public Opinion Quarterly vol.53 no.1 (Spring 1989): 107-113. Further Reading Bradburn, Norman, Seymour Sudman, and Brian Wansink. Asking Questions: The Definite Guide to Questionnaire Design for Market Research, Political Polls, and Social and Health Questionnaires. San Franscisco: Jossey-Bass, 2004. Weisberg, Herbert F., Jon A. Krosnick, and Bruce D. Bowen. "4. Questionnaire Construction." In An Introduction to Survey Research and Data Analysis. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman, 1996: 77-102. Lohr, Sharon L. "Appendix A: Probability Concepts Used in Sampling." In Sampling: Design and Analysis. Boston: Brooks/Cole, 2010: 549-562. Rose, Harold M., and Paula D. McClain. Race, Place, and Risk: Black Homicide in Urban America. Albany: State University of New York Press, 1990: esp. 1-19.

Who Governs Global Markets? Survey Research in Practice (Wed, Mar. 26)

B&M Büthe, Tim and Walter Mattli. [Chapters 3, 6, 7, and Appendix 3: "Institutional Complementarity Theory", "Private Regulators in Global Product Markets", "The Politics of Nuts and Bolts—and Nanotechnology" and "Survey Methods." In:] The New Global Rulers: The Privatization of

8 Regulation in the World Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011: 42-59, 126-161, 162-186, 238-248.

UNDERSTANDING STRATEGIC INTERACTION

Who Wants to Play? Introduction to Game Theory (Mon, Mar. 31) e-res Schelling, Thomas C. "What Is Game Theory?" In Choice and Consequence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1984: 213-242. online Büthe, Tim. "Basic Games." Mimeo, Columbia and Duke Universities, 1998-2013. Further Readings McCarty, Nolan, and Adam Meirowitz. Political Game Theory: An Introduction. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006. Tsebelis, George. "The Abuse of Probability in Political Analysis: The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy." American Political Science Review vol.83 no.1 (March 1989): 77-90.

The Security Dilemma: Using Game Theory to Understand International Relations Prof. Peter Feaver will co-teach (Wed, Apr. 2) e-res Jervis, Robert. "Offense, Defense, and the Security Dilemma." (Selections from "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma." World Politics vol.30 no.2 (January 1978): 186-214.) In International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues, edited by Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis. 10th edition. Boston: Longman, 2010: 93-113.

WHERE DATA COME FROM (2): CONTENT ANALYSIS AND ARCHIVAL RESEARCH

Does Media Attention Drive Foreign Aid Allocation? An Introduction to Content Analysis (Mon, Apr. 7) e-res Neuendorf, Kimberly A. [Box 3.1: "Flowchart for the Typical Process of Content Analysis Research" from:] The Content Analysis Guidebook. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2002: 50f. online Büthe, Tim, Solomon Major, and André de Mello e Souza. "The Politics of Private Foreign Aid: Humanitarian Principles, Economic Development Objectives, and Organizational Interests in the Allocation of Private Aid by NGOs." International Organization vol.66 no.4 (Fall 2012): 571-607. Further Readings Krippendorff, Klaus. Content Analysis: An Introduction to Its Methodology. 3rd edition. Los Angeles: Sage, 2013.

From Blogs to Twitter: Computer-Assisted Content Analysis and the Political Analysis of New Media (Wed, Apr. 9) Reading(s) TBA. Further Readings Schonhardt-Bailey, Cheryl. "Measuring Ideas More Effectively: An Analysis of Bush and Kerry's National Security Speeches." PS: Political Science and Politics vol.38 no.4 (October 2005): 701-711. Davis, Christina and Sophie Meunier. "Business as Usual? Economic Responses to Political Tensions." American Journal of Political Science vol.55 no.3 (July 2011): 628-646. Evans, Michael, et al. "Recounting the Courts? Applying Automated Content Analysis to Enhance Empirical Legal Research." Journal of Empirical Legal Studies vol.4 no.4 (December 2007): 1007-1039. Grimmer, Justin. Representational Style in Congress: What Legislators Say and Why It Matters. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014.

9 History will not be kind to Neville Chamberlain. … I know because I am going to write it. — Winston Churchill as quoted by David Cannadine (Financial Times 19 Nov 2005). The Role of Religion in the Development of Political Institutions: Archival Research and the Critical Use of Sources (Mon, Apr. 14) Prof. Timur Kuran will co-teach e-res Furay, Conal, and Michael J. Salevouris. "The Uses and Nature of History;" "Context;" "Evidence" [and] "Interpretation." In The Methods and Skills of History: A Practical Guide. Arlington Heights, IL: Harlan Davidson, 1988: 1-8, 102-108, 137-145, 168-177. cws Substantive Reading TBA. Further Readings Rosato, Sebastian. Europe United: Power Politics and the Making of the European Community. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2011. Lieshout, Robert H. "Review of Rosato, Europe United." Journal of Cold War Studies vol.14 no.4 (Fall 2012): 234-237.

Wed, Apr. 16: NO CLASS (TAs may offer an optional early review session)

BEYOND POSITIVISM

Roads Less Traveled: Non-Positivist Epistemology, Interpretivism, Discourse Analysis (Mon, Apr. 21) online Almond, Gabriel A. and Stephen Genco. "Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of Politics." World Politics vol.29 no.4 (July 1977): 489-522. Further Readings Bernstein, Steven, et al. "God Gave Physics the Easy Problems: Adapting Social Science to an Unpredictable World." European Journal of International Relations vol.6 no.1 (March 2000): 43-76. Ricoeur, Paul. "The Model of the Text: Meaningful Action Considered as a Text." In Interpretive Social Science: A Reader, 1st edition, edited by Paul Rabinow and William M. Sullivan. (First published in Social Research vol.38 no.3 (Autumn 1971).) Berkeley: University of California Press, 1979: 73-101. Barry, Brian. "Some Questions about Explanation." Symposium: Mancur Olson on The Rise and Decline of Nations. International Studies Quarterly vol.27 no.1 (March 1983): 17-27. Lakatos, Imre, and Paul Feyerabend. For and Against Method: Including Lakatos' Lectures on Scientific Method and the Lakatos-Feyerabend Correspondence, edited and with an Introduction by Matteo Motterlini. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.

POLITICAL SCIENCE AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS

Review and Conclusions (Wed, Apr. 23)

DH Huff, Darrell. "The One-Dimensional Picture." In How to Lie With Statistics. New York: Norton, 1993: 66-73. LB Bartels, Larry M. "Chapter 9: Economic Inequality and Political Representation." In Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Guilded Age. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008: 252-282.