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Malaysian Exports of Merchandise t -- Public Disclosure Authorized j 'e~ 14~~~~~6 Hasan (VI~.L _ S _ sE vw...U itt Public Disclosure Authorized Bsink~rYUng cmA = Public Disclosure Authorized BussinHi M AtA J$QP$WZ Public Disclosure Authorized 17g10 MALAYSIA A World Bank Country Economic Report A THAIKELANTN TRENGGANU PERAK ~~ ~'>P A H N G SEMBILAN N$i ... I C .pi m7 2I |--International Bo,nv , 1012%~~~~~~~~~A Malaysia Growth and Equity in a MultiracialSociety Kevin Young Willem C. F. Bussink Parvez Hasan CoordinatingAuthors PUBLISHED FOR THE WORLD BANK The Johns Hopkins University Press BALTIMORE AND LONDON Copyright ©) 1980 by The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America The views and interpretations in this book are the authors' ancl should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, to any individual acting in their behalf, or to the government of Malaysia. The map serving as frontispiece has been prepared exclusively for the convenience o:2readers of this book; the denominations used and the boundaries shown do no: imply, on the part of the World Bank and its affiliates, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Library of CongressCataloging in PublicationData Young, Kevin, 1945-- Malaysia, growth and equity in a multiracial society. (A World Bank country economic report) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Malaysia-Economic conditions. 2. Malaysia-Economic policy. 1. Bussink, Willem C. F., 1929- joint author. II. Hasan, Parvez, joint author. III. Title. IV. Series: World Bank country economic reports. HC445.5. Y68 330.9595'053 79-3677 ISBN 0-8018-2384-6 ISBN 0-8018-2385-4 (pbk.) Foreword THIS IS THE NINETEENTH in the current series of World Bank country economic reports, all of which are listed on the following page. They are published, in response to a desire expressed by scholars and practi- tioners in the field of economic and social development, to facilitate research and the interchange of knowledge. The Bank regularly prepares economic reports on borrowing coun- tries in support of its own operations. These surveys provide a basis for discussion with governments and for decisions on Bank policy and op- erations. Many governments use the reports as an aid to their economic planning, as do consortia and consultative groups of governments and institutions providing assistance in development. All Bank country re- ports are published subject to the agreement of-and several have been published by-the governments concerned. HOLLIS B. CHENERY Vice Presidentfor Development Policy The World Bank WORLD BANK COUNTRY ECONOMIC REPORTS Published for the Bank by The Johns Hopkins University Press Malaysia: Growth and Equity in a Multiracial Society Yugoslavia:Self-management Socialism and the Challengesof Development Korea:Policy Issuesfor Long-Term Development The CommonwealthCaribbean: The Integration Experience Ivory Coast:The Challengeof Success Korea:Problems and Issuesin a Rapidly Growing Economy Kenya: Into the SecondDecade Yugoslavia:Development with Decentralization Nigeria: OptionsforLong- Term Development EconomicGrowth of Colombia Published by the Wcrld Bank Papua New Guinea:Its EconomicSituation and ProspectsforDevelopme nt The Philippines:Priorities and Prospectsfor Development Lesotho:A DevelopmentChallenge Turkey: Prospectsand i9roblemsof an Expanding Economy Senegal:Tradition, Diversification,and EconomicDevelopment (also published in French) Chad:Development Potential and Constraints(also published in French as Le Developpementdu Tchad: Possibiliteset Limites) Current EconomicPosition and Prospectsof Peru Current EconomicPosition and Prospectsof Ecuador Employment in Trinidad and Tobago vi Contents List of Figuresand Tables x List of Acronymsand Initials x v Note on Currency Equivalents xvi Preface xvii Overview KEVIN YOUNG 3 One. Socialand Political Setting BRUCE ROSS-LARSON 10 Historical Background 11 Postwar Constitutional Development 14 Changes in Ground Rules after 1969 19 Two. Growth, Structural Change,and SocialProgress PARVEZ HASAN 23 Export Growth and Diversification 25 Agriculture 30 Manufacturing 32 Nature and Control of Inflation 35 Trends of Saving and Investment 39 Progress toward Eradicating Poverty 42 Progress toward Restructuring Society 53 Public Sector Planning 57 Three. The New EconomicPolicy and Long-term DevelopmentIssues KEVIN YOUNG 60 Targets of the New Economic Policy 61 Imperatives for Rapid Growth 71 Role of the Public Sector 74 Availability of Resources 75 Rapid Growth in Manufacturing 84 Public Programs to Reduce Poverty 88 Feasibility and Effectiveness of Alternative Growth Strategies 92 Summary Assessment 95 vii Viii CONTENTS Four. Employment and IncomeDistribution in PeninsularMalaysia 'AILLEM BUSSINK 97 Structure of Employment and Income in 1970 99 Characteristics of the Distribution of Personal Income in 19,'0 100 Profiles of Poverty 113 Labor Market Trends and Issues 117 Policy Implications and Responses 121 Prospects for Ernployment and its Restructuring 124 Five. Public Servicesto Meet BasicNeeds JACOB MEERMAN 127 Identifying the Poor 128 Education 131 Medical Care 139 Electricity, Water, and Sewage Disposal 144 Concluding Speculations 151 Six. Stabilization and Public Finance JOHN TILLMAN 154 Stabilization 155 Patterns of Public Expenditure and Revenue 165 Budgetary Prospects for 1976-85 169 Seven. Policiesto Promote Industrial Development GEOFFREY SHEPHERD 182 The Effects of Industrial Promotion Policies 185 Reform of Industrial Incentive Policies 194 Policies for Restructuring Ownership and Employment 199 Postscript on Prospects 207 Eigbt. Agricultureand RuralPoverty ALICEGALENSON 211 Sector Subdivisions 217 Reduction of Rural Poverty under the Second Plan 223 Programs of the Third Plan and Their Effect on Rural Poverty 235 Priorities for Agricultural Development 251 Nine. Malaysian Exports of Merchandise PETER POLLAK 253 Rubber 261 Palm Oil 269 Forest Products 274 Tin 278 Petroleum and Natural Gas 283 Manufactured Exports 287 Appendix A. Estimated Effectsof DifferentInvestment Levels on Growth, Incomes,Employment, and Restructuring, 1975-90 KEVIN YOUN9G 289 Alternative Scenarios for Manufacturing Investment and Public Expenditure 289 Implications for the Targets of the New Economic Policy 300 CONTENTS iX Appendix B. Calculationof Probabilitiesof Supply, Demand, and Consumption: Public Utility Services JACOB MEERMAN 309 Appendix C: Socialand EconomicStatistics KEVIN YOUNG 315 Index 337 Figuresand Tables Figures 6.1 Price Indexes, Peninsular Malaysia, 1950-76 164 B. I Partitioning of Sample by Characteristics 310 B.2 Probabilities of Supply, Demand, and Consumption in Relation to Marginal Connection Costs 312 Tables 2.1 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, 1961-76 24 2.2 Gross National Product per Capita, Malaysia and Selected Groups of Countries, 1960-76 24 2.3 Volume and Value of Exports, by Commodity, 1961, 197C, and 1976 26 2.4 Structure of Exports, by Commodity, 1961, 1970, and 1976 27 2.5 Manufactured Exports from Leading Developing Countries, 1975 28 2.6 Exports of Manufactured Goods, by Selected Commodity Groups, 1970 and 1976 29 2.7 Composition of the Output and Growth of Manufacturing, by Commodity Group, Peninsular Malaysia, Selected Years a:ridPeriods, 1959-73 33 2.8 Market Shares for Manufacturing Output, Peninsular Malaysia, Selected Years, 1963-74 34 2.9 Purchasing Power of Exports, 1960-76 36 2.10 Rates of Saving and Investment, 1961-76 40 2.11 Registered Smallholdings of Rubber, by Ownership and Acreage of Holding, Peninsular Malaysia, 1974 48 2.12 Rubber Prices on the New York Market, Selected Years, 1956-76 49 2.13 Enrollment by Race and Level of Education, Peninsular Ms.laysia, 1970 and 1975 56 2.14 Development Programs of the Public Sector, 1961-80 58 3.1 Incidence and Composition of Poverty Households, by Location and Sector or Occupation, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970, Estimate,; for 1975, and Targets for 1980 and 1990 62 x FIGURES AND TABLES Xi 3.2 Population, Labor Force, and Employment, by Race, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970, Estimates for 1975, and Projections for 1990 66 3.3 Employment, by Race and Sector, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970, Estimates for 1975, and Targets for 1990 67 3.4 Employment, by Occupational Category and Race, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970, Estimates for 1975, and Targets for 1990 68 3.5 Ownership of Share Capital of Limited Companies, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970, Estimates for 1975, and Targets for 1980 and 1990 69 3.6 Growth Targets of the Outline Perspective Plan, by Sector, 1976-90 71 3.7 Population and Labor Force, Malaysia, 1970, Estimates for 1975, and Projections for 1980 and 1990 72 3.8 Availability of Land, 1975 77 3.9 Production of Principal Primary Commodities, 1960-76 and Projections for 1976-90 78 3.10 Projections of Exports, 1976-90 80 3.11 Current Account of the Public Sector, 1971-75, and Projections for 1976-80 and 1981-85 82 4. 1 Structure of Employment and Income, by Sector, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970 100 4.2 Indicators of the Distribution of Income, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970 104 4.3 The Distribution of Household per Capita Income, by State, Size of Community, and Race, Peninsular Malaysia, 1970 106 4.4 Monthly Income per Earner, Gini Coefficient, and Percentage of Income Inequality Attributable to Income Difference between Groups, by Race, Size of Community, Employment Status, Occupation, and Industrial Sector,
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