BARC India TV Universe Estimates 2020
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TV Universe Estimates 2020 Introduction India is home to 1.3 billion people and more than 300 million households1 with diverse cultures. However, while TV owning households in the country represent about 2/3rd of all households, they have been increasing and have doubled over the past two decades (Figure 1). Trends using census data and the past 2 Broadcast India (BI) studies, suggest a drop in the family size and an increase in the count of homes. TV Penetration 70% 64% 66% 60% 54% 47% 50% 40% 32% 30% 20% 10% 0% Census 2001 Census 2011 IRS 2013 BI 2016 BI 2018 Figure 1. TV Penetration in India TV Universe Estimates (UEs) play an important role in the structuring of BARC India’s sample design, ensuring the panel reflects a true microcosm of India. Updated TV UEs ensure that the weighting and calibration systems properly, and accurately, project audience estimates to the population and are free of any bias. The last update of TV UEs was done in 2018 after the establishment study known as Broadcast India (BI) 2018. While there were plans to conduct BI 2019 and BI 2020 surveys, at the advice of the industry, BI 2019 was not conducted due to NTO, and subsequently, due to COVID nationwide lockdowns, fieldwork could not be conducted for BI 2020. In the absence of field work, BARC India team, along with the BARC Technical Committee (TechComm), has evaluated multiple options and identified the best and the most suitable method for updating TV UEs. Based on the recommendations, it was decided to keep projection date as 1st March 2020 for TV HH and individuals. The detailed methodology is mentioned in the next section. 1 BARC India. (2018). Broadcast India 2018. TV UEs 2020 is the intellectual property of BARC India, and all copyrights are reserved. P a g e | 1 Methodology In the recent past, BARC India has also observed changes in the composition of NCCS (i.e., socioeconomic status) and Mode of Signal Reception (MOSR) which are corroborated with other studies such as readership surveys. By continuing to sample the panel against dated NCCS profiles, MOSR distribution and assumed growth in TV households, audience estimates will not be reflective of What India WatchesTM. TV UEs have been developed by computing the Linear growth of TV Households and TV Individuals from the past two Broadcast India studies (i.e., BI 2016, BI 2018) at Geographic and Demographic levels. The distribution of the TV population by NCCS was then taken from the latest Indian readership survey. Linear growth is computed using following formula y = b0 + b1x y = 2020 estimate b0 = BI 2018 estimate b1 = monthly growth rate between BI 2016 and 2018: (BI 2018 estimate – BI 2016 estimate) / number of months between projection points x = number of months between 2020 and BI 2018 projection points Results: TV Homes in India increased by 6.9% to 210 million from previous 197 million in 2018. TV viewing Individuals grew by 6.7%, effectively an increase of 56 million (Figure 2, Figure 3). TV Homes TV Individuals 210.2 892.0 196.7 835.8 183.1 779.8 BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 Figure 2. TV Households in India (in Millions) Figure 3. TV Individuals in India (in Millions) TV households have increased in Urban and Rural markets by 4% and 9% respectively. In absolute terms, there is an increase in TV households of nearly 3.2 Mn in Urban India and 10.3 Mn in Rural India. TV households grew in all town classes of Urban markets with megacities growing by 6%. (Figure 4, 5) TV UEs 2020 is the intellectual property of BARC India, and all copyrights are reserved. P a g e | 2 TV Households by Urban and Rural split 119.2 108.9 98.6 84.4 87.8 91.0 Urban Rural BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 Figure 4. TV Households (Millions) by Urban and Rural TV Households by Urban Pop Strata 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.7 21.5 22.8 21.9 22.8 20.3 20.0 18.6 19.3 Megacities 10-75L 1-10L Below 1L BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 Figure 5. TV Households (in Millions) by Urban Pop strata TV households have increased in all reporting States/State Groups in 2020. The growth in overall HSM states is relatively higher than the South states due to an already high TV penetration. Bihar/Jharkhand, Assam/NE and Odisha have seen double digit growth in TV households (Table 1). Table 1. TV Homes by State/ State Groups (in Millions) TV Homes (Mn) BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 % Change vs 2018 India 183.1 196.7 210.2 7% HSM 119.5 128.4 138.3 8% Assam/NE/Sikkim 4.9 6.0 6.8 14% Bihar/Jharkhand 6.5 8.0 9.9 23% Delhi 5.2 5.4 5.6 4% Guj/D&D/DNH 11.8 12.3 12.9 5% Har/HP/J&K 6.2 6.4 6.5 2% Mah/Goa 22.2 23.7 25.5 7% MP/Chhattisgarh 14.3 15.3 16.4 7% Odisha 5.4 6.0 6.8 13% Pun/Cha 5.8 6.2 6.6 7% Rajasthan 7.8 8.4 9.1 9% UP/Uttarakhand 16.0 16.5 17.0 3% West Bengal 13.5 14.3 15.3 7% SOUTH 63.5 68.4 71.9 5% AP/Telangana 20.8 23.2 24.6 6% TV UEs 2020 is the intellectual property of BARC India, and all copyrights are reserved. P a g e | 3 Karnataka 14.1 15.3 16.1 6% Kerala 7.8 8.2 8.6 5% TN/Pondicherry 20.9 21.7 22.6 4% In the recent years, a limited number of media studies have been conducted (e.g., Indian Readership Survey - IRS). These studies have indicated that the NCCS profile of the Indian population is changing as people have been moving up on the socioeconomic pyramid. BARC India has also observed this change in the NCCS profile of TV Panel households. As per the updated UEs, the proportion of NCCS A and B have increased to 27% and 31% respectively while NCCS DE have further contracted to 9% of overall TV households in the country. (Figure 6, Table 2) All India NCCS Distribution Table 2. NCCS Household Distribution (All India) 66.2 68.368.4 59.3 56.0 55.3 NCCS BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 49.5 42.1 A 21% 21% 27% 38.7 35.5 31.1 B 27% 28% 31% 19.7 C 32% 35% 33% DE 19% 16% 9% A B C DE Total 100% 100% 100% BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 Figure 6. Households by NCCS (in Millions) Composition of Mode of Signal Reception (MOSR) in the country has also changed over this period. The share of DD Free Dish has increased to 19% from 13% in 2018, and the share of Cable TV2 has decreased to 48% (Figure 7). 63% MOSR Distribution at India 55% 48% 31% 32% 23% 19% 12% 13% 2% 1% 1% Cable DTH Pay DTH Free Terrestrial (Normal Antenna) BI 2016 BI 2018 UE 2020 Figure 7. MOSR Distribution TV Individuals have seen an increase across age groups and sex. The growth of Females is higher, driven by Rural India (Table 3). There has also been an increase in the population of Kids (i.e., 2 to 14 years) and 22 to 40-year olds in Rural India being higher than other age groups. (Table 4). 2 Cable TV includes Digital Cable and where still present, Analogue Cable connections TV UEs 2020 is the intellectual property of BARC India, and all copyrights are reserved. P a g e | 4 Table 3. TV Individuals by Sex (in Millions) All India TV Individuals (in Millions) % Change over 2018 Sex Urban Rural Total (U+R) Urban Rural Total (U+R) Female 187.1 248.3 435.4 4% 10% 7% Male 196.7 259.9 456.6 3% 9% 6% Total 383.8 508.2 892 3% 9% 7% Table 4. Individuals by Age Groups (in Millions) All India TV Individuals in Millions % Change over 2018 Age Groups Urban Rural Total (U+R) Urban Rural Total (U+R) 2 to 14 87.8 141.8 229.6 3% 13% 9% 15 to 21 55 73 128 4% 6% 5% 22 to 30 71.3 86.9 158.3 5% 10% 7% 31 to 40 63.8 76.1 139.9 3% 10% 7% 41 to 50 47.3 56.2 103.5 2% 7% 4% 51 to 60 30.6 37 67.7 3% 8% 6% 61+ 27.9 37.1 65 2% 7% 5% Total 383.8 508.2 892 3% 9% 7% Simulation of the New UEs on TV Viewership Data The increase in the TV population has resulted in an overall growth in TV viewership. In line with the pattern of regional growth of the population, TV viewership has grown more in Bihar/Jharkhand, Assam/NE and Odisha (Table 5). Similarly, TV viewership of upper NCCS (A and B) has increased due to increase in population while lower NCCS profile (NCCS CDE) has seen a drop of around 12% at all India level. (Table 6). TOTAL TV Viewership (AMA’000s) Table 5 - TOTAL TV Viewership (AMA’000s) by State/State Groups Regions (Ind 2+) OLD NEW Index India 89061 93797 105 HSM 54733 58300 107 Assam/North East/Sikkim 2234 2653 119 Bihar/Jharkhand 3430 4168 122 Delhi 2863 2973 104 Guj/D&D/DNH 5295 5509 104 Har/HP/J&K 2619 2634 101 Mah/Goa 11381 12089 106 MP/Chhattisgarh 6080 6389 105 Odisha 2739 3094 113 Pun/Cha 2688 2818 105 Rajasthan 2610 2810 108 UP/Uttarakhand 6785 6879 101 West Bengal 6010 6284 105 TV UEs 2020 is the intellectual property of BARC India, and all copyrights are reserved.