Crisis Group Commentary 16 November 2017

By Piers Pigou, Senior consultant, Southern Africa

Zimbabwe’s Very Peculiar Coup

Zimbabwe’s military has detained the the party’s spokesperson, Ambassador SK country’s 93-year-old President Robert Moyo, accused Chiwenga of treasonous utte- Mugabe and his wife, Grace Mugabe, and rances and overstepping his mandate. Then, in taken control of the streets of the capital and the early November, troops took control of the the main television station. The next step – government’s media headquarters and other apparently, a legitimate-looking transfer of important buildings. power to someone of the army’s choosing – The military urged the sixteen million Zim- may prove less easy. babweans to “limit unnecessary movement” and have called for calm among key compo- The Zimbabwe Defense Forces have nents of the state, the judiciary, parliamenta- taken control of the country. What exactly rians, the security sector, churches, youth for- happened? mations, traditional leaders and other political The crisis burst into the open on 6 November actors. Military vehicles were parked on the when President Mugabe fired Vice President streets, but on the morning of 15 November this Emmerson Mnangagwa and expelled him did not discourage Zimbabweans from going from the ruling Zimbabwe African National about their lives almost as normal. Incidents of Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party. violence appear to have been minimal, with few Mnangagwa has been aligned with the mili- reports of gunfire and some of beatings. There tary and Zimbabwe’s National Liberation War is no evidence of overt division within the secu- Veterans Association, and had been in a fierce rity sector. struggle for power in the race to succeed the An effective news blackout from the state country’s 93-year-old leader. His principal media has however made people reliant on opponent was Grace Mugabe, the president’s international and social media, and speculation wife, who heads a rival faction of ZANUP-PF is rife. A great variety of sentiments are being veterans known as the G40, leads the women’s expressed, from relief and excitement that wing and is popular among young party acti- Mugabe’s long reign may be finally over, to a vists. profound nervousness that what follows could The army then unambiguously stepped in. be even worse. A statement on 13 November by the comman- der of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, General Does the military action spell the end of Constantino Chiwenga, called for an end to the ’s 37 years in power? unfolding purge of party elements that took Mugabe appears to have lost power, but not part in Zimbabwe’s fifteen-year war of libera- his position as president, at least in the first tion from white rule, and warned that the army two days after the military move. At 01:26 in would intervene against any threat to the inte- the early hours of Wednesday 15 November, an grity of the revolution that led to Zimbabwe’s army spokesman delivered a written statement independence in 1980. Almost 24 hours later, on national television and radio claiming the INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 16 NOVEMBER 2017 military had taken action, “targeting criminals The military’s televised broadcast main- around [President Mugabe] who are commit- tained that “we wish to make it abundantly ting crimes and are causing social and econo- clear that this is not a military takeover of mic suffering in the country to bring them to government. What the Zimbabwe Defence justice”. The statement said the president and Forces (ZDF) is doing is to pacify a degenera- his family were safe and that “as soon as we ting political, social and economic situation in have accomplished our mission, we expect the our country which if not addressed may result country to return to normalcy”. in violent conflict”. The statement urged impor- South African President tant arms of government and social constituen- confirmed Mugabe is “confined to his home”, as cies to remain focused and calm. is apparently his wife, Grace. But Mugabe’s per- There may well be sympathy for the mili- sonal position remains unclear on many fronts. tary’s intervention from several domestic and regional quarters, but it sets dangerous Does the military’s action constitute a anti-democratic precedent with major impli- coup d’état? cations for Zimbabwe and beyond. How much This is a very peculiar kind of coup. Effectively longer can this overt military intervention there has been a military takeover, but the avoid being labelled a coup d’état? While the army has not declared martial law, the suspen- army’s intentions may be couched in constitu- sion of the constitution, or the deposition of the tional language, the democratic credentials of country’s head of state. The military and those those pursuing this course of action are also in such as War Veterans who supported a robust doubt. Just as importantly, will the military, pushback following Vice President Mnanga- in conjunction with ZANU-PF and the govern- gwa’s dismissal have been at pains to argue that ment, be able to cobble together a plausible they are not pushing for a coup. Outside powers veneer of legality around this intervention? are also at pains not to use the word “coup” in Will the opposition and civil society take a relation to current events. clear stance on this? Will President Mugabe, Yet General Chiwenga’s statement on 13 whose controversial election in 2013 was widely November had the hallmarks of threatening to accepted, be willing and able to put his impri- seize power. He said that unless Mugabe took matur on any new suggested plan of action? appropriate steps there would be a military intervention, albeit to address an apparent What has been the regional reaction? security threat perceived in both the ruling The African Union (AU) and Southern Afri- party and the country at large. The situation, can Development Community (SADC) rightly he argued, warranted action and was in line condemn unconstitutional takeovers of power with the military’s previous interventions in as a red line not to be crossed. At the time of internal ZANU-PF disputes, enacted to ensure going to press, neither the AU nor SADC have the ruling party and its revolutionary objectives expressly condemned the Zimbabwe military’s were not hijacked. It would appear that Mugabe intervention or described it as a coup. There was either unable or refused to take the steps have been growing frustrations with how being demanded, setting in motion Chiwenga’s Mugabe has been mishandling internal factio- promised action. nal dynamics, the economy and the unresolved

“ There may well be sympathy for the military’s intervention from several domestic and regional quarters, but it sets dangerous anti-democratic precedent with major implications for Zimbabwe and beyond.” INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 16 NOVEMBER 2017 issues of his own succession, exacerbated by “ The most likely person to the destabilising antics of the first lady. The SADC chairman, Jacob Zuma, des- benefitfrom recent events is patched two special envoys to Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa.” capital , his defence minister, Nosi- sought refuge with Mugabe. Others reportedly viwe Mapisa-Nqakula, and the new and little taken in include the ZANU-PF youth league experienced state security minister, Advocate chairperson, Kudzai Chipanga; images of his Bongani Bongo. From there, the envoys are beaten visage have been circulating on social expected to travel to Angola to brief President media. Unconfirmed reports claim the com- João Lourenço who is chairperson of SADC’s missioner of police, Augustine Chihuri has also Organ for Politics, Defence and Security. Zuma been detained. It remains to be seen who else confirmed he had been in touch with Mugabe constitutes the alleged “criminals and coun- and with the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, which ter-revolutionaries” referred to by the military are well-regarded in the region. Zuma called for and whether they will now be subjected to due “calm and restraint” and for the ZDF “to ensure process, criminal investigation and prosecu- peace and stability are not undermined”. He tion. made no mention of a coup d’état. 36 hours after the announcement on state Speaking on Tuesday, ’s African media, there had still been no public statement National Congress (ANC) Secretary Gene- from the government or from any key political ral made it clear that the players. A statement from opposition leader ANC doesn’t want to get involved in the rift. Morgan Tsvangirai, who is on his way back to “ZANU-PF must deal with the issue because Harare this evening, is keenly awaited. Zimbabwe is not our colony. It’s not our pro- The most likely person to benefit from vince, it’s our neighbour. If things go wrong recent events is Mnangagwa. Some ZANU-PF there, of course, we’ll be concerned because it’ll party structures have already reversed their impact on us, but we have no authority over former support for Mnangagwa’s expulsion. them, that’s the point we’re making”. He was in the past held out by many as the best hope within ZANU-PF for piloting a pragmatic Where are Zimbabwe’s domestic poli- economic recovery predicated on re-engage- tics heading? What kind of transitional ment with international creditors and a pac- government might be possible? kage of reform that would instil a measure of When Mugabe fired Vice President Mnanga- much needed confidence. He now has a chance gwa on 6 November, it was thought that Grace to show that he can deliver on this promise. Mugabe had prevailed in the eventual struggle If Mugabe steps down from office, Mnan- to succeed her husband. But the army’s reac- gagwa could be sworn in as interim leader. tion appears to have ended the chances of her Tsvangirai has not indicated what line he will taking over. take, but he has made political deals before. It The army has now detained senior may be we are in for a staggered transitional members of Grace Mugabe’s G40 faction of process that features a staged public show of party veterans, including Party Commissar Mugabe «overseeing» the process, which would Saviour Kasukuwere, Finance Minister Igna- allow the new powers in the land to introduce tius Chombo, and Patrick Zhuwao, Mugabe’s credibly some kind of interim government. nephew and minister of public services, labour Some wish to bring forward parliamentary and social welfare. Some social media is repor- elections currently scheduled for mid-2018, ting Higher Education Minister Jonathan Moyo but with guarantees that the political space will has also been arrested; others claim he also be opened up. Others are pushing for a longer INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 16 NOVEMBER 2017 transition, even up to two to three years, in the ZANU-PF, such as Joice Mujuru. This would hope that this period can be used to level the probably mean postponing the 2018 elec- political playing field and to build some foun- tions, which many believe would in any case dation for economic recovery. be unable to provide a legitimising platform But even if Mnangagwa wins formal control for reform and recovery in the current politi- of ZANU-PF at the scheduled ZANU-PF cal context. Such a proposition would require Extraordinary Congress in December, it is broad based buy-in, not only from opposition unclear whether he can cobble together a tran- elements, but civil society more broadly. Their sitional unity government that can turn around endorsement and participation in charting a the moribund economy and end the political new national vision is essential, if this inter- crisis. Mnangagwa may explore options for an regnum is to generate a credible set of options executive that incorporates opposition ele- designed to enhance and rebuild Zimbabwe’s ments and those more recently estranged from democratic credibility.