ZA-Archiv Nummer 4285

Pre-Election Study - Presidential Elections 2003 1

Survey JMS-177/0310 Questionnaire No: Institute of Social Sciences Point: Centre of Political Studies and Public Opinion Research Settlement type: 1. City Narodnog fronta 45, 2. Other Telephones: (011) 3618186, 3614057, 3614047 Signature of the interviewer: Fax: (011) 3618186, 3614057 ______

PUBLIC OPINION OF SERBIA 2003/3

The Centre for Political Studies and Public Opinion Research of the Institute of Social Sciences is conducting a public opinion poll. We examine the opinions of citizens about political and economic problems and issues, in particular about elections. The identification of public attitudes helps the problems to be solved more successfully and enables the citizens to get to know the public opinion in particular regions and social groups. You were chosen to be a part of the citizens’ sample, representing the population of Serbia. You were drawn by lot, but it is important for us that you personally answer the questions I’ll ask. The participation in this survey is voluntary and anonymous. We expect you to answer the questions freely and truthfully and thus contribute to the success of this survey. Thank you for your co- operation. 8. Gender: 1. Male 2. Female

Before we start the conversation, please tell me some of your personal data that we need for statistical processing.

9. How old are you? 1. 18-29 2. 30-39 3. 40-49 4. 50-59 5. 60 and over

10. What is the level of your education? 1. Incomplete primary school 2. Primary school (eight grades) 3. Three years of Secondary school (craft 4. Secondary school (four years) 5. College education 6. University / academy degree

11. What is your ethnic background/nationality? 1. Serb 5. Yugoslav 2. Montenegrin 6. Hungarian 3. Muslim 7. Slovak 4. Croat 8. Roma 9. Other nationality (Record): ______

12-13. Are you employed currently and what is your occupation? 01. Farmer or housewife in a farmer’s household 06. Pupil, student 02. Unskilled or half-skilled worker 07.Housewife 03. Skilled or highly-skilled worker 08. Private entrepreneur-owner 04. Clerk or a technician with high school 09. Retired 05. Clerk or an expert with college or university degree 10. Unemployed 11. Other

14. How many members are there in your household, including yourself?______members

15. What was the total income of your household in September, including salaries, pensions, motherhood and child allowances, income out of agriculture and similar? ______dinars 1. Has no income 9. Does not know

Now we would like to proceed with the conversation itself.

In your opinion, have Serbia, Montenegro and the State Community of been led in right or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Does not know 16. Serbia 1 2 3 17. State community Serbia and Montenegro 1 2 3

On the whole, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with... Satisfied Dissatisfied DK, indecisive 18. International position of our country 1 2 3 19. Your personal standard of living 1 2 3 20. Serbian authorities 1 2 3 2

21. Activity of opposition leaders and parties 1 2 3 22. Future chances of yourself and of your children 1 2 3 23. Inter-ethnic relations in Serbia 1 2 3 24. Civil rights and liberties 1 2 3 25. Economic situation in Serbia 1 2 3 26. Solving the problem of Kosovo and Metohija 1 2 3 27. Relations of Serbia and Montenegro 1 2 3 28. The fight of our State against crime and corruption 1 2 3 29. The way privatization is conducted 1 2 3 30. The fight of our State against inflation 1 2 3

(Show the Card THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS) In your opinion, what is the most important problem Serbia is facing today? And what is the next most important problem? 31-32. First problem ______16. Other (what) ______17. Does not know 33-34. Second problem ______16. Other (what) ______17. Does not know

35. Did the reforms made so far brought you more advantages or more harms in comparison to the situation till the year 2000? 1. More advantages 2. More harm 3. Else (What?) ______4. Does not know

36. Are you personally ready to undergo deprivations for the sake of the success of economic reform in Serbia? 1. Yes 2. No 3. Does not know

We would like to know your opinion about some institutions. I would like you to tell me, for each of the institutions I am going to read to you, whether you trust it completely, trust it mostly, mostly don’t trust it or do not trust it at all.

Trusts it Trusts it mostly Mostly do not Does not trust DK, complet trust it it at all indecisive ely 37. The president of Serbia and Montenegro 1 2 3 4 5 38. The Parliament of Serbia and Montenegro 1 2 3 4 5 39. Council of Ministers of Serbia and 1 2 3 4 5 Montenegro 40. The president of Serbia 1 2 3 4 5 41. Parliament of Serbia 1 2 3 4 5 42. The government of Serbia 1 2 3 4 5 43. The army of Serbia and Montenegro 1 2 3 4 5 44. The police 1 2 3 4 5 45. The judicial system 1 2 3 4 5 46. The Serbian Orthodox Church 1 2 3 4 5 47. OSCE 1 2 3 4 5 48. European Union 1 2 3 4 5 49. United Nations 1 2 3 4 5 50. NATO 1 2 3 4 5 51. Partnership for peace 1 2 3 4 5 52. The Hague Tribunal 1 2 3 4 5

53-54. Which of the following institutions you trust most? ______01. None 02. Does not know

(Show Card GREATEST ACHIEVEMENT OF NEW AUTHORITIES) 55-56. What is, in your personal opinion, the greatest achievement of the new authorities? ______16. Other (what) ______17. Does not know

Which person in Serbia do you consider as the most capable to carry out political reforms, and which one to carry out economic reforms? 57-58. Political reforms: ______99. There are no such persons, doesn't know 59-60. Economic reforms: ______99. There are no such persons, doesn't know

Which political party is, in your opinion, the most capable to carry out political reforms, and which one economic reforms?

61-62. Political reforms: 01. DP 02. G17 03. DPS 04. SPS 05. SRP 06. PSU 07. SRM 08. Other parties 09. None 10. Does not know

63-64. Economic reforms: 01. DP 02. G17 03. DPS 04. SPS 05. SRP 06. PSU 07. SRM 08. Other parties 09. None 10. Does not know

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I'll read to you the names of some politicians. Please, tell me for each one of them whether you have heard of him, and if you have, what is your opinion about him – very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable or very unfavorable. Unfamiliar Very Mostly Mostly Very Does not favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable know 65. Zoran Zivkovic 1 2 3 4 5 6 66. Vojislav Kostunica 1 2 3 4 5 6 67. Nebojsa Covic 1 2 3 4 5 6 68. 1 2 3 4 5 6 69. Dragoljub Micunovic 1 2 3 4 5 6 70. Goran Svilanovic 1 2 3 4 5 6 71. Vladan Batic 1 2 3 4 5 6 72. Boris Tadic 1 2 3 4 5 6 73. Dusan Mihailovic 1 2 3 4 5 6 74. Bozidar Djelic 1 2 3 4 5 6 75. Zarko Korac 1 2 3 4 5 6 76. Mladjan Dinkic 1 2 3 4 5 6 77. Velimir - Velja Ilic 1 2 3 4 5 6 78. Slobodan Milosevic 1 2 3 4 5 6 79. Vojislav Seselj 1 2 3 4 5 6 80. Borislav Pelevic 1 2 3 4 5 6 81. Ivica Dacic 1 2 3 4 5 6 82. Tomislav Nikolic 1 2 3 4 5 6 83. Vuk Draskovic 1 2 3 4 5 6

84-85. Which politician do you trust most? ______01. None 02. Does not know

Now I shall ask you some questions about the presidential elections.

86. Some people turn out at every election, and some do not turn out at all. What would you say of yourself? Have you ... 1. Regularly turned out at elections 3. Voted at some elections only 5. Else (What?) 2. Voted at almost all elections 4. Never voted 6. Doesn't want to answer

87. Did you vote at the Serbian presidential elections in September 2002, when V. Kostunica, M. Labus, V. Seselj and some other candidates had run? Who did you vote for? 1. Did not vote 2. Does not know, does not want to answer 3. V. Kostunica 4. M. Labus 5. V. Seselj 9. Some other candidate

88. Presidential elections in Serbia will be held on November 16. In your opinion, are the presidential elections in Serbia ... 1. Very important 2. Mostly important 3. Mostly unimportant 4. Not important at all 5. Does not know

(Show Card CHARACTERISTICS OF IDEAL PRESIDENT) In your opinion, which three of the following characteristics are the most important for the successful president of Serbia today? Please rate them according to their importance 89-90. I characteristic ____ 16. DK 91-92. II characteristic: _____ 16. DK 93-94. III characteristic:___ 16. DK

95-96. In your opinion, who would be the best president of Serbia? ______99. DK

97. If D. Micunovic, T. Nikolic, V. Ilic and some other less renowned candidates ran for the president at the coming elections, would you vote? For whom? 1. Would not vote 2. Indecisive whether to vote or not 3. Indecisive for whom 4. For D. Micunovic 5. For T. Nikolic 6. For V. Ilic 7. For some other candidate

98. (If 1, 2 or 3 to Q 97) Could you still vote for some of these candidates? (If 4 – 7to Q 97) Could you vote for some other of these candidates? 1. No 2. Does not know 3. For D. Micunovic 4. For T. Nikolic 5. For V. Ilic 6. For some other candidate

99. Which candidate will win the highest number of votes at the coming elections, in your opinion? 1. D. Micunovic 2. T. Nikolic 3. V. Ilic 4. Some other candidate 5. Other candidate

100. Do you think that the turnout at the presidential elections will be sufficient, so that the elections would be successful, or you think that they will not be successful? 1. Will be successful 2. Will be unsuccessful 3. Does not know

(Show Card REASONS FOR NON-VOTING) 101-102. What is, in your opinion, the main reason for the decision of a number of citizens not to vote at the presidential elections? ______09. Other (what?)______10. Does not know

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Which one of the presidential candidates is, in your opinion, the D. Micunovic T. Nikolic V. Ilic Other DK most able one to... 103. Secure faster reforms, recovery of economy and economic 1 2 3 4 5 development 104. Protect national interests, preserve independence of our 1 2 3 4 5 country 105. Contribute to faster passing of the new Constitution of Serbia 1 2 3 4 5 106. Develop good relations with international community 1 2 3 4 5 107. Secure better laws, justice and order, put an end to crime and 1 2 3 4 5 corruption 108. Arrange relations with Montenegro and preserves the joint state 1 2 3 4 5 109. Solve the problem of Kosovo and Metohija in accordance with 1 2 3 4 5 everyone's interests 110. Secure the cooperation of political leaders in order to overcome 1 2 3 4 5 current political conflicts 111. Contribute to the development of better international relations 1 2 3 4 5 112. Secure economic aid and loans from abroad 1 2 3 4 5 113. Improve the standard of living, relieve the problem of 1 2 3 4 5 unemployment and poverty 114. Secure better future for you and your children 1 2 3 4 5 115. Unite the citizens in order to regenerate society 1 2 3 4 5

(Show Card CHARACTERISTICS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES) In your opinion, which three of the following virtues and flaws are the most prominent ones in D. Micunovic, which ones in T. Nikolic, and which ones in V. Ilic? Please rate them according to their importance. I characteristic II characteristic III characteristic D. Micunovic 116-117. _____ 31. DK 118-119. _____ 31. DK 120-121 _____ 31. DK T. Nikolic 122-123. _____ 31. DK 124-125. _____ 31. DK 126-127. _____ 31. DK V. Ilic 128-129. _____ 31. DK 130-131. _____ 31. DK 132-133. _____ 31. DK

People make different criticisms on the account of some presidential candidates. Do you consider as justified or unjustified the criticisms on the account of D. Justified Unjustified DK Micunovic claiming that he... 134. Was not engaged enough in the fight against the abuses of current 1 2 3 authorities 135. Too yielding to the demands of international community 1 2 3 136. Had not sufficient influence on the leaders of other political parties 1 2 3 137. Had already run for president without success 1 2 3 138. Ready to make compromises for the sake of "calm at home" and 1 2 3 remaining in the power 139. Too old for the duty of the president of Serbia 1 2 3 Do you consider as justified or unjustified the criticisms on the account of T. Justified Unjustified DK Nikolic claiming that he... 140. Is not educated enough to perform the highest state duties 1 2 3 141. Is not autonomous, he does everything Seselj tells him to do 1 2 3 142. Is not reliable, is ready to betray his own convictions for the sake of 1 2 3 143.po eHadr already run for president without success 1 2 3

Finally, do you consider as justified or unjustified the criticisms on the Justified Unjustified DK account of V. Ilic claiming that he... 144. Is aggressive and rude in his behaviour toward those whose opinions 1 2 3 are different from his own 145. Inconsistent, ready for all political compromises for the sake of his 1 2 3 personal interests 146. Is not educated enough for the duties of the president of Serbia 1 2 3 147. Intolerant toward the members of national and other minorities 1 2 3

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148. If V. Kostunica ran at the coming presidential elections besides D. Micunovic, T. Nikolic, V. Ilic and some other less renowned candidates, would you vote? For whom would you vote? 1. Would not vote 2. Indecisive whether to vote or not 3. Indecisive for whom to vote 4. For D. Micunovic 5. For T. Nikolic 6. For V. Ilic 7. For V. Kostunica 8. For some other candidate

149. If V. Kostunica didn't run at the coming presidential election, but M. Labus did, would you vote? For whom would you vote? 1. Would not vote 2. Indecisive whether to vote or not 3. Indecisive for whom to vote 4. For D. Micunovic 5. For T. Nikolic 6. For V. Ilic 7. For M. Labus 8. For some other candidate

150. If V. Kostunica and M. Labus ran at the coming presidential elections besides D. Micunovic, T. Nikolic, V. Ilic and some other less renowned candidates, would you vote? For whom would you vote? 1. Would not vote 2. Indecisive whether to vote or not 3. Indecisive for whom to vote 4. For D. Micunovic 5. For T. Nikolic 6. For V. Ilic 7. For V. Kostunica 8. For M. Labus 9. For some other candidate

151. There are different opinions about the moment when the elections for the Serbian Parliament should be scheduled. What is your opinion? Should the elections for the Serbian Parliament be scheduled… 1. Right now, before the Constitution of Serbia is changed 2. After the Constitution of Serbia is changed 3. Does not know

(Show Card PARTIES AND COALITIONS I) 152-153. If the elections for the Serbian Parliament were held tomorrow, and DOS took part in them in its current structure, would you vote? For which political party or coalition would you vote? 01. Would not vote 02. Indecisive whether to vote or not 03. Indecisive for which party or coalition to vote Voting for: ______

(Show Card PARTIES AND COALITIONS II) 154-155. Let us suppose that Social-democratic party (S. Orlic), and Reformists of Vojvodina (M. Isakov) and Democratic Alternative (N. Covic) formed a coalition and took part at the elections independently from Democratic Opposition of Serbia, so that you can vote for some of the following political parties and coalitions. Would you vote? For which political party or coalition would you vote? 01. Would not vote 02. Indecisive whether to vote or not 03. Indecisive for which party or coalition to vote Voting for: ______

(Show Card PARTIES) 156-157. Let us suppose that the political parties that make Democratic Opposition of Serbia decided to take part each one independently at the coming elections, so that you can vote for some of the following political parties... Would you vote? For which political party or coalition would you vote? 01. Would not vote 02. Indecisive whether to vote or not 03. Indecisive for which party or coalition to vote Voting for: ______

Political parties use different ways to notify the voters of their programs and to win them as their voters. Which one of the following ways suits you personally? Yes No DK 158. When candidates or activists of a party visit you at your home 1 2 3 159. Public discussions and meetings with candidates and leaders of a party 1 2 3 160. Letters, propaganda leaflets, newspapers, and bulletins sent to home address 1 2 3 161. Regular informative broadcasts on radio and TV and newspaper reports 1 2 3 162. Special programs on TV and radio in which candidates and political parties 1 2 3 present their electoral programs 163. Debates and duels of candidates on TV, confrontations, round tables 1 2 3 164. Rallies with candidates and leaders of a party as speakers 1 2 3 165. Posters 1 2 3 166. Electoral TV spots of candidates and parties 1 2 3 167. Information via Internet (e-mail, web sites of candidates and parties) 1 2 3

168-169. Which one of these ways suits you best? ______01. None 02. Does not know

THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION

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JMS 177/0310

Questions 31-32 i 33-34

Card MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS

01. Slow reforms and slowing down of economic development

02. Falling behind with the passing of the new Constitution of Serbia

03. Poor operating of institutions

04. Threat to national interests and independence of our country

05. Aggravated political situation in Serbia and slow development of democracy

06. Too slow establishing of better relations with international community

07. Lack of good laws, justice and order are not secured, widespread crime

08. Problems in relations with Montenegro and preserving the joint state

09. Unsolved status of Kosovo, protection of Serbs in this province, the return of displaced persons

10. Over-indebtedness

11. Poor inter-ethnic relationships

12. Insufficient economic aid and credits from abroad

13. Low standard of living, unemployment and poverty

14. Uncertain future of all citizens, especially the young ones

15. Disunity of Serbian citizens in regeneration of society Question 55-56 7

JMS 177/0310

Card GREATEST ACHIEVEMENT OF NEW

AUTHORITIES

01. Free price-forming, the opening of our economy to the world and the competition, and better supplying the market with goods

02. Passing of the indispensable laws

03. Reduced obligations of economy toward the budget

04. Improvement of citizens' standard of living

05. Privatization of enterprises

06. Fundamental change in the citizens' awareness about the necessity of reforms

07. Stable and convertible dinar, the growth of foreign currency reserves of our country

08. Fight against the organized crime and corruption

09. Democratization of our society, higher respect for the freedom of citizens and media

10. Solving of the problems in Southern Serbia

11. Integration into international institutions

12. Progressive shift of attitude of international community toward the problem of Kosovo and Metohija

13. Arranging the relationship with Montenegro

14. Normalization of relations with our neighbors

15. Higher stability in the region

Questions 89-90, 91-92, 93-94 8

JMS 177/0310

Card CHARACTERISTICS OF IDEAL PRESIDENT

01. Competent

02. Honest

03. Consistent

04. Responsible

05. Democrat

06. Modest

07. Good orator

08. Handsome, good-looking

09. Understanding

10. Patriot

11. Has a good reputation among our people

12. Has a good reputation in world

13. Expert

14. Promising

15. Assertive

Question 101-102 9

JMS 177/0310

Card REASONS FOR NON-VOTING

01. Elections are held too often, and people are bored

02. Some political parties summon their supporters to boycott elections

03. Candidates are poor; none of them can substantially contribute to the situation in Serbia

04. Many people are not interested in politics, and therefore they never vote

05. Many people are disappointed in all politicians, all authorities are alike

06. Campaign is too meek, does not animate them to vote for one of the candidates

07. Elections are not important; the presidential mandate will last shortly until the new Constitution of Serbia is passed

08. Objective reasons – sickness, journey, too far a voting place, bad weather

Questions from 116-117 to 132-133 10

JMS 177/0310

Card CHARACTERISTICS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

01. Competent 02. Incompetent

03. Honest 04. Dishonest

05. Consistent 06. Inconsistent

07. Responsible 08. Irresponsible 09. Modest 10. Extravagant 11. Democrat 12. Autocrat 13. Good orator 14. Poor orator 15. Handsome, good-looking 16. Repulsive 17. Understanding 18. Heartless 19. Patriot 20. Traitor 21. Has a good reputation among our 22. Has a bad reputation among people our people 23. Has a good reputation in world 24. Has a bad reputation in world 25. Expert 26. Not expert

27. Promising 28. Not promising

29. Assertive 30. Mild

Questions 152-153 11

JMS 177/0310

Card PARTIES AND COALITIONS I

04. Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS)

05. Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)

06.

07. Resistance

08. Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)

09. Serbian Radical Party (SRP)

10. Serbian Renewal Movement (SRM)

11. Party of Serbian Unity (PSU)

12. Other party

Questions 154-155 12

JMS 177/0310

Card PARTIES AND COALITIONS II

04. Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS)

05. Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)

06. G17 PLUS

07. Coalition SDP, RV and DA

08. Resistance

09. Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)

10. Serbian Radical Party (SRP)

11. Serbian Renewal Movement (SRM)

12. Party of Serbian Unity (PSU)

13. Other party

Questions 156-157 13

JMS 177/0310

Card PARTIES

04. Demochristian Party of Serbia– Vladan Batic 05. Democratic Alternative – Nebojsa Covic 06. Democratic Party – Zoran Zivkovic 07. Democratic Party of Serbia – Vojislav Kostunica 08. Democratic Center – Dragoljub Micunovic 09. G17 PLUS - Miroljub Labus 10. Civic Alliance of Serbia – Goran Svilanovic 11. Coalition "Vojvodina" – 12. League of Social-democrats of Vojvodina – Nenad Canak 13. Liberals of Serbia – Dusan Mihailovic 14. New Serbia – Velimir Ilic 15. Resistance 16. Movement for Democratic Serbia – Momcilo Perisic 17. Reformist Democratic Party of Vojvodina – 18. Sandzak Democratic Party – Rasim Ljajic 19. Association of Vojvodina Hungarians – Jozef Kasa 20. Social-democracy – V. Obradovic 21. Social-democratic Party – S. Orlic 22. Social-democratic Union – Zarko Korac 23. Socialist Party of Serbia – Slobodan Milosevic 24. Serbian Radical Party – Vojislav Seselj 25. Serbian Renewal Movement – Vuk Draskovic 26. Party of Democratic Action – Sulejman Ugljanin 27. Party of Serbian Unity – B. Pelevic 28. Other party