VOL. 8 | ISSUE 1 | 2020 ISNN 2299-3835 MHWM – Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management is issued by The influence of hydro-climatological Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) – National Research Institute 01-673 Warsaw, Podleśna 61, Poland in the management of water resources 4 www.imgw.pl Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka ISNN 2299-3835 The influences of meteorological and hydrological factors on the operation and performance

MHWM EDITORIAL OFFICE of a semi-natural stormwater reservoir 28 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute Andrzej Wałęga, Dariusz Młyński, Artur Radecki-Pawlik 01-673 Warsaw, Podleśna 61, Poland Meteorological products for administration, business and individual clients. T: +48 22 56 94 510 | E: [email protected] Flow descriptors for parametric hydrographs accounting for afforestation of the catchment 36 FORECAST THE FUTURE Beata Baziak, Wiesław Jerzy Gądek, Tamara Tokarczyk, Marek Bodziony EDITORIAL BOARD

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1. FOREWORD scriptive formulations arrived at by Leonardo da Theoretical foundations for the assessment The water in various forms that is an essential Vinci, not least in the matter of the water cycle of water resources in scientific publications first component of the geosphere is also a basis within a drainage basin (Richter 1956). Biswas gained support from real measurements from such for the existence of our planet’s living world (1970) considered that da Vinci’s work had large international rivers in Europe as the Elbe, or biosphere. Although water is a renew- led Newton (1643-1727) to his laws relating Rhine, and Oder. Measurements began to cover able natural resource, its quantity is such to the conservation of matter and energy, as well a broader scale from the end of the 18th century that the matter and energy associated with its as gravitation. Circulation of water in nature onwards, as intensive engineering work to reg- presence in the epi-geosphere are limited. Key as described by da Vinci makes visually clear ulate rivers was undertaken (see Biswas 1962, The influence features include ubiquitous presence and uses the causes and consequences of many compo- 1970 after: Maass 1870). in various sectors of the economy. The conse- nent processes that can be confirmed by simple Representatives of the American engineer- quence is that water is a common economic measurement, attesting therefore to far-reaching ing school associated with Stanford University of hydro-climatological good of great importance. Nevertheless, water scientific intuition about the interdependence in California, above all Linsley and Franzini resources are more limited by the overriding of phenomena and factors. Premises supporting (1972), devised strong theoretical foundations impacts of demographic, economic, climatic, these concepts relate to spatial and temporal for the calculation of flowing water resourc- balances and and other anthropogenic factors than they are continuity and an unchanging quantity of water es, as well as the behaviour of rivers at times by natural renewability. circulating in nature. of high-water events and flooding. From Nature-based solutions (NBS) The main subject of interest here is the renew- Craig et al. (2001) followed earlier hy- this point on, there was a broader movement ability of terrestrial water resources, i.e. the en- drologists and geophysicists in maintaining seeking to put in place a rational model of cal- tirety of actually or potentially available water that the amount of water globally remained culating flows at times of flooding. The mod- in the management of suitable quantity and quality to meet defined constant, whereas this idea was not confirmed el was based on engineering studies involving demands (Międzynarodowy Słownik Hydrolo- in research from the first decade of the 21st 24-hour maximum precipitation and includ- of water resources giczny 2001). century, not least from American astrophysicist ing factors such as evaporation, infiltration, This article seeks to achieve a synthetic, his- Lewis (2012). and runoff via streams. Morley (1855), who was torically-based conceptualisation of the science Documenting the further growth of knowl- the biographer of Pallissy, thus dealt with a rec- Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka University of Warsaw, Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warsaw, Poland, of water resources, through which increasingly edge about water, Biswas (1965, 1970) men- onciling of theory and practice. e-mail: [email protected] complex and technologically advanced methods tions Pallissy, active around 1550 in France A key breakthrough in hydrology

4 can inspire more effective assessment and use and the developer of ideas about the origins and its practical form (water engineering) was 5 DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/110415 of water. From the outset, integration of theory of precipitation in a river system, as well a modern handbook by Chow (1964) entitled and practice has been a key pragmatic element as springs and underground waters. These con- the Handbook of Applied Hydrology. Even today bringing water management closer to more cepts then offered the basis for assessment of re- it may not be described as outdated. In turn, favourable solutions for utilisation, planning, newable resources, as indeed Galileo, Descartes, those following the development of hydrolo- and management. and Gastelle (17th century) all proceeded to do. gy and water management in the USA should The background to this article’s content Cognitive understanding of the hydrological not ignore the modern Polish handbook from and objectives is provided by the natural shap- cycle proceeded in stages. The American geophys- Lambor (1965), which offers a cohesive presen- ing of the water cycle and its components icist Newton in his Encyclopedia of Water (2003) tation of the relevant fundamentals, assessment in the environment, as the basis for quanti- states that increased understanding reflected ad- methodologies, and management principles, tative and qualitative environmental aspects vances in measurement techniques, calculation as supported by numerous examples of prob- and the regularities underpinning spatial methods, and scientific concepts, as accelerated lems and solutions arrived at on various conti- ABSTRACT. This article offers a historical review of (cognitive) scientific research that demonstrates the development of key concepts relating to balances and temporal changes. by quantitative hydrology and mathematical nents and in many different regions. in the hydrological and hydro-climatic cycles, thereby supplying a basis for quantitative and qualitative assessment of renewable water resources. The review modelling in the service of economic forecasts. reveals the direction knowledge took as it developed through successive cognitive and applied stages. The emphases are on how global and regional hydrological IDEAS FROM SCIENCE The development of water balances was thus de- 2. INTERNATIONAL conditioning underpin integrated concepts for the management of water resources. The primary aim of this article is to describe the main achievements, AND PRINCIPAL CONCEPTS pendent on the length of measurement series DIALOGUE approaches and scientific initiatives, along with their theoretical underpinnings, in the hope of encouraging application and further appreciation. Attention OF THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE and the scale of the analysed object (for exam- AND PROGRAMMES is thus paid to milestones along the road to global development, as manifested in the (at times abruptly changing) effort to better assess and understand Natural water circulation can be quantified ple, a drainage basin or a floodplain). CONNECTED WITH WATER the use of water resources in various economic, social and ecological activities. The aim is first and foremost to encourage the achievement of sustainable in the form of the water balance that rep- According to Biswas (1965, 1970, 1978), RESOURCES development as humankind’s main hope for the future. A further focus is on initiatives, scientific issues, and concepts that have been espoused by international resents a basis for the management of water true development of scientific hydrology AND MANAGEMENT organisations and illustrate the increasingly essential harmonious use of water resources at local, regional, continental, and planetary scales. Relevant global resources in an area and is also of fundamen- took place in the 17th century, with the first International interest in water, and particularly conferences have demonstrated wide readiness to adopt declarations, or to issue appeals and resolutions, in support of fuller assessment of renewable tal significance to nature conservation. A basis more-precise methods of measuring flows then the resource and its quantity, use, management, water resources. Examples of excessive use have been identified, and efforts have been made to counteract both floods and deficits, and hence avoid crises. for the water-balance equation is to be found representing a milestone in the development and protection, arose in the mid-1970s and has These deliberations have also stimulated long-term forecasting, for periods up to 2030 or even 2050. Also stressed here are the challenges, inspirations, in “the law or principle of mass conserva- of quantitative resource assessment. continued to the present day under the auspic- and achievements of pure and applied science when it comes assessing the risk that the Earth’s potential to supply water resources will be exceeded. tion” as formulated by Einstein (1879-1955) It was the second half of the 17th century es of the Geneva-based World Meteorological The suitability of current assessments of water resources is evaluated, and reference made to ecologically-integrated answers such as Nature-based solutions – the very famous German physicist, creator that brought the beginning of continental hy- Organization (WMO). In the interests of fore- (NBS), as backed by the UN and UNESCO (2018) in combination with principles set out in the EU’s Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). of the general and special theories of relativity, drology, much later termed global hydrology casting and the methods of practical hydrology, and the person who emphasised the constancy by Kalinin. Bierkens (2015) presented the con- the WMO issued a Fifth Edition (1994) of its KEYWORDS: renewable water resources, hydrological-climatological water balances, approaches, concepts, Nature-based solutions (NBS). of mass and energy, with the two nevertheless temporary state, trends, directions, and direc- guide for evaluating water resources. The role being interconvertible. This kind of thinking tives underpinning the development of knowl- of the United Nations (UN) has become stron- SUBMITTED: 16 October 2018 | REVISED: 28 February 2019 | ACCEPTED: 1 July 2019 may ultimately trace back to 15th century de- edge about water resources. ger as it strives more and more determinedly Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

in the direction of joint international action, lands, which are dependent on sources of wa- The end of the 21st century’s first decade processes before it, for example, becomes efflu- descriptions of the processes, given the need representing a basis for the management irrespective of whatever geopolitical blocs may ter. This report was a key stimulus for further brought many new actions focusing on the rela- ent. It is possible to steer such resources, and en- for real-life solutions, practical applications, of water resources on different scales. It was be in place. It was on the initiative of that or- ground-breaking action in the name of what tionship between ecology, the reshaping of water gage in appropriate management or allocation and full insight into the renewability of water accepted that this should be termed the wa- ganisation that a first UN Conference on Wa- became known as sustainable development goals. resources under the influence of global warming, of them. resources, the way they originate, and the way ter balance, and be time-related. The German ter was convened at Mar del Plata (Argentina) Falkenmark (1983, 1984, 1987, and 1991), and the capacity of water balances and the hydro- Anticipated droughts and periods of low lev- in which changes can be evaluated. geographer Keller (1980) followed Soviet hy- in 1977. The main objective was an assessment and other international studies justified the pro- logical cycle to go on supplying water. Attention els of surface water or groundwater as a reflec- Recent centuries brought major devel- drologist Lvovich (1969, 1974) and Mikulski of the status of water resources and a desire tection of water resources in line with the grow- is given to ecological processes that affect water tion of global warming and excessive use have opments to deriving hydrological balances (2006) in ascribing the form of the quantita- to assure all human beings access to water in ap- ing risk or probability of the Earth’s potential quality and quantity, limitations on evapotrans- been worked on by Tallaksen and Van Lanen for drainage basins. As Biswas (1978) notes, tive raw balance to Brückner (1862-1927), propriate quantity and of appropriate quality. being compromised by the excessive use of wa- piration, and the barriers to the consumption (2004). In turn, Veldkamp et al. (2015) draw the concept of the hydrological cycle developed a German geographer-climatologist. The pre- Attention was paid to the socio-economic need ter. She also, individually (1987, 1989/1990), of water resources in extreme circumstances in- attention to significant changes (and underly- in France by Delamétherie (1743-1817) – al- cise date and form of the equation for this raw for the water present on the planet, with further and together with da Cunha (1989/1990) volving droughts or flooding. ing mechanisms) in global shortages of water beit on the basis of ideas da Vinci outlined – balance of resources are not known, but can be requirements that efficiency of use be increased, and others (1991), sought to justify strate- Rockström et al. (2014) – responding during the year, with implications for socio- was the first approach seeking to account for hypothesised (after Mikulski 1998) as a 1904 along with states’ readiness to act in the face gies for the future development of the Earth to Vörösmarty et al. (2010, 2013) – claim economic changes in agriculture and recre- an arithmetic regularity by way of mathematical innovation. The first form of the equation was of a looming global water crisis, at the time con- that entailed an awareness of the protection that a future bridge between ecohydrology ation. Moreover, Van Beek et al. (2011) reveal description. It was then up to a water engineer simple, with atmospheric precipitation (N) sidered likely to make itself felt before the end and saving of water in planning and in other and uncontrolled resistance on the part of the en- that even global monthly changes affecting from Leeds (UK) – Smeaton (1724-1792) – = river outflow (A) + water loss (W), this be- of the 20th century. kinds of decisions such that the management vironment may give rise to dramatic Anthropo- meteorological events may tend to stress plants to engage in the measurement of flow, although ing written using the original nomenclature A summary of established international polit- of water might be optimised in the context of cene phenomena and processes that will disrupt and limit access to water retained in the soil, he did not conceive an algebraic equation in German as: ical dialogue in the last 25 years of the 20th cen- scale, factors, and preferences. Economic, so- the sustainability of water resources worldwide. which is needed if high yields are to be ob- by reference to the French findings. tury was produced for the Mar del Plata Confer- cial, and ecological aspects were propounded Today the preference is for closed-cycle water tained. A recent report from Poljanšek et al. The use of mass (or volume) balance N = A + W (1) ence by Biswas (2004). Key emphasis was then as being of the greatest importance. management. This approach is economical with (2017) summing up knowledge on disaster risk as a means of both assessing and studying re- Niederschlag = Abflus + Wasserverlust placed on global change in the Earth’s water Reports seeking to raise levels of knowledge water resources and involves links in the chain management resorted to the perverse title “bet- newable water resources on the basis of mathe- resources. The need for something to be agreed and awareness of the sustainability of devel- that comprises abstraction from the environ- ter to see it than to lose it”. matical description of the hydrological cycle has Keller (1980) considered that the equation upon and established was widely recognised opments in water management include work ment, use, and discharge. Where there is con- In sum, such extensive, multi-dimensional been employed since the end of the 19th cen- initially served (for example German geog- and emphasised, given what had been anticipat- brought out consecutively by the Intergovern- siderable access to limited resources, synergies development of knowledge of quantitative as- tury. The form and application have remained rapher and geomorphologist Penck in 1896) ed for the First Climate Summit (Conference mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007, involving demographic processes (population sessment in water-cycle management and bal- the same through all this time, notwithstanding in determining the flow in a river from a known of the Parties to the UNFCCC) held in Kyoto 2012, 2013, 2014). Furthermore, relevant key increase), or a larger number of people plac- ancing must include mathematical modelling developments and a process of ongoing modi- precipitation total, in the case of an inadequate

6 (2018 brought the most recent COP, COP 24, events on the world scale included the “Earth ing a burden on the management of renewable (deterministic, stochastic, or conceptual). Be- fication. The balance structure has always been supply of measurement data. Rather earlier 7 in Katowice). Rahaman and Varis (2005) pub- Summit” convened in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, resources, then renewability becomes limited yond hydrology, environmental, and ecological based on the same assumption: that incoming it had emerged, as an 1883 achievement of Pol- lished a key article on the state of management the Agenda 21 document associated with it, and there is a lack of equilibrium that works factors, models will need to address econom- amounts of water are equal to those passing ish water engineer Iszkowski (Mikulski 1998), of water resources, with much emphasis placed and the UN’s Millennium Declaration and De- to minimise values for resource use. ic and demographic development scenarios. out of a given area over a given time. Howev- that field evaporation might also be calculated on evolution, prospects, and future challenges, velopment Goals, the last in force since 2015 Influential accords reached through the work The ultimate aim in each case is to make pro- er, choices then need to be made in line with as in Equation 1 from the difference between and stressed the need for integrated water man- and still binding. of international organisations from the end jections possible, with verification by way the objective that is to be served. The mass precipitation and river outflow (W – E, where agement, which accounts for economic, social, It is also worth citing the article by Montanari of the 20th century through 2015 include those of measurement and monitoring, thereby sup- balance, as the simplest of the mathematical E is evaporation). The year 2008 also marked and environmental/ecological aspects, as well et al. (2013), in which members of the Inter- under the auspices of the UN, FAO ICSU, plying a basis for the forecasting of changes models, may first need recalling here, even the 135th anniversary of the publication as regional specifics. national Association of Hydrological Sciences and the World Bank. The IGBP, IHD IAHS, in the resource under the influence of various if it is probably well known. of Iszkowski’s work, which used Penck’s equa- Interlinkages between the systems of thought (IAHS) describe foreseeable changes that pose IUNEP, and IWRM Programmes are involved, global and anthropogenic activities. Arising out of the laws of conservation of mass tion in its calculations, and went by a title ap- globally represent an issue of overriding im- a threat to water resources globally. Subsequent- along with consensus texts from or relating and energy, the water balance equation remains proximately translating into English as On evap- portance supported by the UN, not least via ly, McMillan et al. (2016) maintained the IAHS to the ESSP and EEA, Future Earth, IHP UN- 3. THE DEVELOPMENT a numerical representation of the hydrological oration in the field. It was obviously concerned its High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges stance, but emphasised global hydrological ESCO, the Club of Rome, the “Water for Life” OF WATER-BALANCE cycle characterising a drainage basin, and is still with the water cycle on planet Earth, but did and Change. We also need to recall the precursors prospects, some looking very unfavourable decade, the Pope’s 2015 Encyclical entitled Lau- PROBLEMS useful, albeit often now in forms that reflect not take account of the evapotranspiration from Scandinavia who had significant input into because of the likelihood of increasing water dato Si, and NGOs including such church-re- AND CHALLENGES ever-greater expansion, and methodological process. It can be presumed that Penck and Isz- the development of the sustainable development shortages and desertification. lated examples as Listen to the cry of the Earth As the content of previous sections makes perfection. In classical hydrology, the terms kowski were well acquainted, thanks to contacts concept, including the future role to be played Rockström and Falkenmark (2014) also and the cry of the poor, as well as the Global Cath- clear, the cognitive development of the hydro- used for the components of the water balance in Vienna and Lvov (at that time in the Austrian by water. Those in question were the then (1977) noted the development of methodology relat- olic Climate Movement. logical cycle was a very protracted, step-by- are used interchangeably with those applied province of Galicja). Prime Minister of Norway, Gro Harlem Brundt- ing to resistance and economising on resources The key issues for these accords address step process extending from the 16th through to components or elements of the hydrological Penck’s 1896 equation proved useful land, as well as Malin Falkenmark of the Swedish in the interests of human existence, with pro- awareness of the use and consumption of water the 19th centuries. It centred on a developing cycle. The balance for the catchment or basin to the aforementioned Brückner (1904), Academy of Sciences (in 1987). They regarded posals of the kind referred to in Table 4. resources and special protection for areas of defi- understanding of genesis and interdependence, of flowing waters, lakes, swamps or aquifers, in- and then to Russian hydro-engineer in the Don as crucial a holistic approach to meeting social, Many recent studies deal with water resourc- cit or accumulation within cities. In each case and the uncovering of empirical premises con- cluding different components of the water cycle Basin Oppokov (1905), as they tried to account cultural, economic, and environmental needs es as they relate to environmental limitations, excessive outflow is to be prevented, sustainabil- firming variability across both space and time. in the area under consideration, remains in close for differences in drainage-basin water balanc- where the uses of water and the environment farming systems, and human food security (Ra- ity encouraged, amounts of wastewater reduced, As Biswas (1965, 1970) shows, and Dooge linkage with, and is very much conditioned by, es over the long term, as compared with mean were concerned. The World Commission on En- haman, Varis 2005; Springmann et al. 2018), and appropriate priorities determined. Drought (1959, 1974) confirms, opportunities arose various renewable sources of water, which are values (Mikulski 1998). To this end, an ini- vironment and Development’s Our Common Fu- while Kindler (2018) and Varis et al. (2017) represents a major challenge for agriculture, hor- for further qualitative and applied develop- integrated by the processes of water cycling, tial improvement involved a term for change ture report (1987) refers to climate change and its address the matter of worldwide use of water ticulture, livestock-raising, and forestry. ment, with quantitative indicators character- whether on the surface, just below the surface, in the level of retention (∆R). An equation consequences for desertification, forest degrada- by reference to just a few dimensions of the pro- The distinguishing of the different types ising a studied basin better and better inte- or deeper underground. modified in this way has persisted to the pres- tion and felling, water shortages, and the threat tection of those resources essential to the pro- of water resources and their precise definitions grated. An outline of the scientific thinking The development of hydrological balances ent day. to biodiversity at the levels of the species, the bi- duction of food items (not least those to be (for example as green or grey water) reflects behind better acquaintanceship with the wa- proceeded in stages. The water cycle required The water balance thus came to be found- ome and the phytocoenosis, most especially wet- imported or exported). the way that water may be subject to various ter cycle was imperative, with mathematical dynamic and quantitative conceptualisation ed upon the assumption that, in a period ∆t, Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

If water resources in a given precisely-defined of the balance on either side of the equation In such a complex, multi-element form, area (basin) gain expression through a time func- influences the remaining components. the water-balance equation is very difficult, tion with a freely-selected time-step, then, as de- The dynamic balance for a natural drainage if not impossible, to resolve for a small-scale veloped by Overmann (Soczyńska 1997) and Ow- basin can have anthropogenic (water manage- cycle, with the result being duplication (dou- ens and Watson (1979), we arrive at the following ment-related) components incorporated into ble counting) of circulation caused by the pro- 19-component version: it, in relation to both incoming and outgoing tracted or short-lived presence of water by way resources. Quantitative and qualitative changes of retention. characterising the cycling of water and brought (P1 + P2 + P3 + P4) = (H + H + H + H – H ) + about by anthropogenic factors may arise 4. PROBLEMS p f gd g ap (4) (Ew + Ep + Et + Ei + Ec) + throughout a basin, or in just a part thereof. AND CHALLENGES (∆R + ∆R + ∆R + ∆R + ∆R ) p a f g ap /∆t Indeed, change may be confined to the channel SURROUNDING THE of a single watercourse. Likewise, the impact in- HYDRO-CLIMATOLOGICAL

where: P1 constitutes precipitation measured 1 m volved may be episodic, short-lived, periodic, sea- BALANCE Fig. 2. Water circulation links showing locations above the ground; P2 is the further amount of pre- sonal, annual, or multiannual, and is determined The atmospheric nexus with the cycling of wa- cipitation arising out of systematic measurement by physico-geographical (including climatic) ter is of particular importance, if hard to esti- of blue, gray, green water (based on Kędziora 1995, modified by author) errors; P3 is “horizontal” precipitation (involving conditions, compounded by the effects of vari- mate. Measurement and calculation methods

rime or hoar frost and fog); P4 is precipitation ous forms of economic management that mod- associated with it are very complex and have originating with the condensation of water vapour ify retention, outflow, and evapotranspiration, tended to accumulate ever more parameters much work undertaken by British workers, as well

in the air as dew; Hp is the surface outflow or runoff; or a connected basin. These factors are most often as time has passed. The devising of balances as Scandinavians (e.g., at Uppsala and Åarhus).

Hf the sub-surface flow out of the zone of fluc- multi-directional and very difficult to assess ob- for elements of the climate may resemble or be Meteorological parameters in the near-ground Fig. 1. Classical scheme for water circulation in the catchment (based on Soczyńska et al. 2003) tuation in levels of groundwater; Hgd the inflow jectively, especially because of the lack of a frame identical to those relating to the hydrological atmosphere such as solar radiation (as the main

of groundwater into the basin; Hg underground of reference, or initial, natural background con- aspects, or else proceed with a different rhythm. source of energy), wind, air humidity, and the kind

the total amount of water entering a given (Kaczmarek 1996) integrated with variables char- outflow into watercourses; Hap underground ditions. It should be stressed that the directions Three links involving the exchange of matter of vegetation covering soil all help determine hydrological unit (drainage basin) is equal acterising atmospheric or soil, vegetation-related, apotamic outflow into deeper rock layers; of impact of anthropogenic changes may vary, and energy have been described in theoretical the intensity of the process by which the gas-

to the sum of losses plus any change (in com- and riparian processes. Ew evaporation from open water surfaces; and may sometimes be synergistic. terms, i.e. the atmospheric (A), the surface-re- eous exchange of water takes place. It has long

parison with the original) in the state of final Rates of loss or gain of water resources may Ep evaporation from soil, snow, ice or imper- The compilation, in an independent or depen- lated (S) and the soil/ground/plant-related been known that a particular role in the transfer

8 retention. However, retention as a separate vary under various anthropogenic pressures, meable surfaces; Et transpiration by plants; dent manner, of all component elements of the bal- (P, G). There are naturally interactions in play of water to the atmosphere is played by vege- 9

component was identified in the balance equa- and may head in opposite directions. Ei losses due to interception by plant cov- ance described by the relevant equation should also between all of these (Fig. 2). tation cover and soil processes. The biosphere

tion only thanks to Oppokov as the fraction Where the balance period is markedly short- er; Ec losses reflecting chemical transfor- be accompanied by a calculated error of estimation. Each of the evaporation processes (or types must thus receive a considerable amount of wa-

of precipitation that reached the drainage basin, er, there is a need to take account of dynamics mations; ∆Rp changes in surface retention; The equation balance remainder should be related to cover), e.g., field evaporation, ter (thanks to interception or dew formation),

but neither flowed out nor evaporated, at least of water and heat in a basin that can be safe- ∆Ra changes in the aeration zone; ∆Rf chang- distributed between all components propor- evapotranspiration, guttation (interception and of that only a small proportion is used over the period under consideration. ly ignored when the period is an annual one. es in retention in the saturation zone re- tionally to their significance (Ozga-Zielińska, by plant cover), requires a separate physical in the development of biomass. The remainder A breakthrough in the assessment of drain- The equation for the water balance then (after lating to a variable water table. Then Brzeziński 1994). However, subsequent re- and mathematical approach (Monteith 1981; of this water participates in overall transpiration 1 age-basin processes and the development of wa- UNESCO 1971 and Lvovich 1974) is: ∆Rg represents changes in retention of pota- search has shown that these errors should not be Kędziora 1995; Kowalik 1995, 2010; Jaworski from plant cover (Figs. 1, 2 and 3).

ter balances involved dividing the discharge hy- mic groundwater (percolation); ∆Rap changes distributed among all elements of the equation 2004; Gutry-Korycka 2007). Three import- Water passing through the plant root system drograph into surface and underground phases; in retention in the saturation zone of fluctuations but expressed in an additional element, the so- ant ways of doing that are worthy of men- (rhizosphere) through osmosis and capillary P + R = H + E + R (2) as well as the method for assessing evapotrans- 1 2 of deep-lying groundwaters not associated with called non-classed water balance (η): tion: (1) diffusion, as described by British action reaches the atmosphere via fine vessels, piration. Application of mathematics, infor- river drainage, and ∆t the time step for the cal- physicist John Dalton in 1802 (as referred though arrival at the leaf may coincide with pho-

mation technology, and the theory of systems where: P is precipitation; R1 represents initial culations. to in Biswas 1978; Szymkiewicz, Gąsiorowski tosynthesis, with mineral substances taken from Pr – Et – (Hp + Hp) ± ∆R – η = 0 (5) in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in the devel- level of retention; H is outflow; E – evaporation; As can be seen, the development of such 2010); (2) the balance of heat energy encap- the soil combining with carbon dioxide (CO2)

opment and use of systems-theory computer and R2 – level of final retention. an equation requires the collection of a great deal sulated in equations developed by American from the atmosphere, with the participation techniques. These developments supported This equation assumed the full form of the de- of measurement data. Should that be lacking, we UNESCO has recommended a version from astrophysicist I.S. Bowen in 1926 (Kędziora of solar radiation, to build plant organic matter. the rapid, revolutionary development of mathe- veloped balance (Kędziora 1995), in line with: resort to empirical formulae allowing for direct Sokolov and Chapman (1971, 1974) after 1995); and (3) a concept relating to heat flux It has been shown that the amount of water con- matical modelling based on Bertallanfy’s theories or indirect estimation of some of the 19 elements Sugavara, in which water-balance components from Bowen, as well as Australian physicists ducted by a plant is a function of these processes. in describing the transformation of ever-larger of the cycling of water (or processes) considered must be evaluated in relation to their variabil- Priestley and Taylor (1972), and British ex- Regardless of the specific biome, the total mass P + E + S + S + S + ∆R + ∆R + ∆R = 0 (3) empirical data sets (Haimes 1987; Soczyńska r p g a s p i to be operating in a basin. Sometimes consider- ity. The evaluation error of each balance ele- perts on evaporation and evapotranspiration of a plant is proportional to the amount of water 1995). It became possible to apply an ever-great- ation is confined to the more important factors, ment should then depend on the distribution Penman (1956) and Monteith (1981, 1985). used during its growth. This is an important fea-

er number of generations of models, with the bal- where: Pr represents precipitation in all its sometimes even to just one of them (Fig. 1). and variance, measuring instrument accuracy The greatest number of creative theoretical ture of the hydrological cycle, which Falkenmark ance equation becoming the classical approach, forms, E is evapotranspiration (field evapora- As has been noted already, the dynamic and measurement frequency, subordinated and empirical solutions were arrived at by agro-hy- (1984) termed (from the point of view of water

alongside new ones, for example those involving tion); Sp surface runoff; Sg groundwater outflow; hydrological balance in a natural basin can to systematic and random errors. drologists of the Dutch school (de Wit 1958, resources and their designation) “green water”

graph theory, fuzzy sets, etc. Statistical and sto- Sa apotamic flow (percolation), ∆Rs the change be expressed with a set of five subsystems, The drainage dynamic water balance equa- 1965; Bierhizen, Slatyer 1965; Ritema 1969; Ross (Fig. 3). Matricon (2000), Hoffman et al. (2000),

chastic models (and among them dynamic wa- in ground retention, ∆Rp the change in surface or even a greater number (Fig. 1), that are tion as written by Overmann (Soczyńska 1997 1970; Ritema, Endrödi 1970; Feddes et al. 1980), Hoekstra (2003), Mioduszewski (2003, 2006),

ter balances like CLIRU N-3) have contributed retention (in rivers, lakes, or wetlands), and ∆Ri interlinked in the manner depicted in Equa- et al.) took the form: whose work included the roughness of cultivated Chapagain and Hoekstra (2004) in turn revealed to the assessment of water resources on the basis the change in retention due to interception tion 2. Conservation of mass and energy dic- plants, increments in biomass, transpiration, in- that the production of 1 kg in dry mass of grain of climatic or hydrological plus climatic data by plant cover (Fig. 1). tates that transformation of any component terception, and various types of evaporation. Issues requires ≈ 500 L of water, whereas the production P (t) = H + H + E + R /∆t (6) r p(t) g(t) (t) (t) of gaseous exchange revolve around photosynthesis, of a 1 kg of cotton needs twice as much. These 1 The geographical and hydrological method developed by Lvovich was dubbed his favourite son by colleagues. It was a six-element system for a balance equation (after Mikulski 2006). as well as the exchange of greenhouse gases, with ideas can be generalized to other crops, as well Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

parting from them, and as entered into approxi- mate equations (7a-7d) was applied by Kupczyk (1980) and Soczyńska (1997). English ecologists, Calder et al. (1992) and Halder (1992) used the equation described. Plant canopy transpiration (E) was estimated as the summation over a three-layer calculation with the Monteith-Penman formula according to Mon- teith (1965) applied at each level:

∆'H + ρc ∙ δ ∙ ɡ λE = p q a c ɡ (8) ∆ + ( p )(1 + a ) λ ɡc

where: H = the available radiative energy for

each layer of the forest; cp = the specific heat of air at constant pressure; E = transpiration rate;

ga = canopy layer boundary conductance;

gc = canopy layer stomatal conductance;

δq = specific humidity deficit; ∆' = rate of change of saturated specific humidity with temperature; Fig. 3. Common elements of balances: heat, radiation, water balance (based on Kędziora 1995) λ = latent heat of vaporisation of water; ρ = den- sity of air. as goods for consumption or industrial uses; ther (1957), Belgian agro-meteorologists van where: ↓L is long-wave radiation reaching Following Landsberg (1986), radiation ab- Fig. 4. Comparison of cumulative transpiration and soil evaporation as simulated with SWATR model the concept dates to the start of the 21st century. Bavel and Hillel (1976), British physicist Mon- the land surface; ↑L is long-wave radiation from sorption by the forest canopy is approximated with lisimetrically-measured data for a red cabbage crop growing on clay in the presence of a water table (based on Feddes et al. 1980) 10 Evapotranspiration is a dual process: the ef- teith (1985), Americans Gash and Shuttleworth the land surface; ↓K is short-wave radiation by the Beer-Lambert Law: 11 fect of a phase-change resulting from evapora- (2007); and a well-known school of physicists reaching the land surface; ↑K is short-wave radi-

tion at the land surface and from plant cover, and climatologists in the Soviet Union including ation reflected off the land surface; S is the flux I z sions. There is a high-level numerical description averaging. In Polish, this is the Klimatyczny ln z = –k ∑ L (9) and transpiration due to the activity of indi- Konstantinov (1963) and Budyko (1986). of sensible heat; LE the flux of latent heat; ( ) i=1 i of infiltration into groundwater and aquifers. Bilans Wodny, i.e. the Climatic Water Balance Io vidual plants or plant communities. While pre- In the approaches taken (and methods of cal- G is the flux of soil heat; E is the flux The modelling was partly achieved by using re- (CWB), defined as the difference between the cor- cipitation is taking place, most authors ignore culation applied) up to now, appraisal of the pro- of water vapour; H is the overall runoff into For example, for physiological studies mote sensing for spatial identification of fields rected mean total of atmospheric precipitation

evaporation, though some may adopt a value for cesses determining levels of useable water resourc- a river; P is (real) atmospheric precipitation; and in young Eucalyptus stands where: Iz = the ra- covered with various crops and the extents (Pr) and the mean total potential evapotranspira-

it as potential evaporation (Ep). es include balances relating to radiation, to heat RN is the differential balance for radiation. diation beneath increasing accumulation of leaf of different soils, in order to calculate net radi- tion (Ep), also termed indicative evapotranspira-

The simplest form of description never- and to the active surface (i.e. the area of ground The first controlling factor in the radiation area; Io = the net radiation above the canopy; ation (LE) as a function of evapotranspiration, tion, which is expressed as a water-column layer theless involves evaporation from the surface covered by vegetation, or else the open water sur- balance is the albedo of the active surface, which k = an extinction coefficient (taken in this case and with the growth of crops simulated (Fig. 4). a given number of millimetres deep. * of a body of water, or from a solid object sat- face). See Kędziora (1995) and Figure 3. varies through the year and during the growing as 0.5); Li = leaf area index of layer i. As presented by Feddes et al. (1980), Evapotranspiration depends on the amount urated in some permanent way. It is possible The common elements of the balance equa- season, since it depends on the physical type For each of the canopy layers, stomatal con- an example illustrates the water circulation system of accessible energy at the vegetated active sur-

to mention two types of theoretical description tions, with RN being the residue in the radiation of land cover, including for example forest, ex- ductance, gsi, was calculated as: that Falkenmark (1988) termed “short branch,” face. Quantitatively, this energy is the same of the process of evaporation. The first pro- and heat balances expressed via equations 7a – posed soil, open water, or snow cover. with wetting and alimentation of an agro-ecosys- as the solar radiation balance after Equation 7. ceeds via transport with the aid of diffusion 7d, are as follows: The accumulation of snow in a basin tem on clay soil. Potential evapotranspiration may thus be denot- ɡ = L *(ɡ + ɡ ) (10) and the retention of mass (as theorised by Dal- and the intensity of melting are the most import- si i sui sli The magnitudes of actual water resourc- ed by one of several dozen formulae or empirical ton in 1802). In the other, changes in the course ↑K – ↓K + ↑L –↓L = R ant factors determining the rate and magnitude es conceptualised either pointwise or spatially functions derived from one, two, or many mete- N (7a) (radiation balance) * of the process of evaporation are summarised of outflow due to melting, as it proved possible where: Li is the leaf area index at given canopy in the soil (aeration) zone are determined by ref- orological parameters. Negative values assumed

as the amount used in the process of gaseous to establish both theoretically and empirically layer; ɡsui is the stomatal conductance of the up- erence to the water balance, which is the differ- by the CWB indicate prevalent Ep ≥ Pr during

exchange, as change in water vapour per unit thanks to the work of such American geophys- per leaf surface; ɡsli is the stomatal conductance ence between incoming water (the precipita- the growing season, with a shortage of precipita- of time (Rodda 1953; Dobson 1977). G + S + LE = R icists and engineers as Wilson (1941), the U.S. of the lower lead surface. tion total with an instrumental correction, P ) tion determining poor conditions for renewabil- N (7b) r (radiation balance) A method such as that involving heat balance Army Corps of Engineers (Snow Hydrology An interesting solution proving useful and water lost through evapotranspiration (Et), ity of water resources. In long-term forecasting allows for an estimation of the mean rate at which 1956), and Grey and Prowse (1993). Polish sci- in spatial and water management and aris- in a given place over a given period of time. associated with agriculture’s demands for water, water is lost through the process of evapora- entists have made a major contribution to our ing out of the heat and water balance is to be This concept has been made clear empirically CWB may be helpful in ensuring that greater tion over a given time step. This method of ap- E + H = P understanding of how to describe phase transi- found in Schierbeek (1980). In a series of stud- by such Polish climatologists as Łabędzki (2003), harvests are obtained. (7c) proaching the issue gained dissemination very (water balance) tions of water in terms of the physics of the pro- ies, example solutions were provided for water Wibig (2012), Wypych and Henek (2012), Other indicators of aridity of the atmosphere widely thanks to the school of American physi- cesses involved (Dobrowolski 1923). The ener- quantity and quality, soil-change technologies, Kożuchowski (2014), Wibig (2017) and Wypych include a ratio of evapotranspiration to pre- cists founded in 1926 by Bowen and continued getic balance for the modelling of thaw processes and the planning and economic dimensions and Kowanetz (2017). They all deploy a rather cipitation equated to a standardised empirical by many European authors, including the Briton R = G + S + LE in line with streams of energy and the energy of land use, capped by mathematical modelling different concept that determines a value for function corresponding to R as the product N (7d) N Penman working in Australia (Penman 1956), (heat balance) balance – as the algebraic sum of all the streams of processes and mechanisms that control the cy- the water balance on an areal basis, with chang- of the latent heat flux and precipitation. This in- as well as British physicists Thornthwaite and Ma- inputting to the surfaces of snow cover and de- cling of water in agricultural areas and depres- es in retention ignored by means of longer-term dicator was proposed by Budyko (1977, 1986). Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

In summary, the water-balance equations pre- It describes a dynamic configuration of incom- man activity; it might entail types of economic Table 1. Principal categories of water use (based on Falkenmark et al. 1987; da Cunha 1989/1990) sented in Sections 4 and 5, in their various forms, ing and outflowing water over time and within sector, infrastructure, or environment, as Falken- Location of water use on site can be used in different approaches to the manage- a given spatial unit. mark et al. (1987) considered. The principal in stream out stream (withdrawal) Rainfall in agriculture Fish and wildlife Livestock ment of water resources, when incorporated into The forms taken by the equations vary, categories are related to types development, e.g., Agriculture, Forestry Utilisation of estuaries** Irrigation* Forestry aquaculture Swamp and wetland habitat Waste disposal planning. Large amounts of data are required as well as does the number of (independently) calcu- towns or cities, housing estates, villages, or in- Utilisation of estuaries as adoption of different forms of the equation de- lated elements. dustrial plants. A further category entails the ir- Hydropower Steam power in kitchen Hydropower Waste disposal** Mining** Waste disposal** pending on the premises governing water use. Each form and each category relating to bal- rigation of cultivated fields. Irrevocable losses Economic sector Industry Cooling Processing** In relation to a type of economic planning, ances in the hydrological cycle may gain appli- have also been taken account of as a total (re- Hydraulic transport Lambor (1965), a well-known water-manage- cation in comparative or reconstructive studies lating to forests, other areas used in agriculture, Navigation Drinking Navigation Recreation Domestic uses Recreation Infrastructure ment specialist, drew a distinction between sev- (i.e. the recreation of the state of quasi-original and pastures, and also in relation to whether Aesthetic enjoyment Public uses in settlements Aesthetic enjoyment Waste disposal** Waste disposal** en different categories of balance: the original water resources), or can serve in forecasting these areas are subject to melioration, drainage, or historical, the raw current (full or resource-re- by way of a dynamic approach. or irrigation). * – highly consumptive use; ** – heavy impact on water quality lated), the utilitarian, the planned, the prospec- Further pursuit of this kind of concept was tive, the operative, and the dynamic. The choice 5. INCREASING CRISIS facilitated by a debate organised in Stockholm Table 2. Matrix for identification of primary barrier group in implementation of water awareness at different activity levels (based on da Cunha 1989/1990) then depends on the objective of the balance IN WATER RESOURCES on awareness of needs for water development, Perspectives/Dimension Type of barrier* being estimated and the needs of water man- – DROUGHTS with primary barriers to its use identified, along Strategic Societal Organisational Conflict-solution Structural s-level Problem perception and recognition Political goals Institutional setting Ideological differences agement itself. At the beginning of the 1980s, a dialogue with bases for renewable resources. The expec- ↑ The original or historical balance is related and broad discussion commenced about tation was that measures would be introduced Actor/Group preferences Power distribution Vested interests ↓ to the past, but still within either the Holocene the prospects for the development and protec- in relation to different groups in society, with Individual i-level Communication modes Emotional differences deficiency Public participating Cognitive differences Degrees of freedom for action or (if recognised) the Anthropocene. It en- tion of water, especially drinking water. Concrete different strategies pursued and different organ- * recognised as primary barrier group for implementation of water awareness at different statistical s-i levels tails the reconstruction of the cycling of water actions began to be taken by such international isations working to resolve conflicts at different in the past, the aim being to research conditions organisations as the UN, WMO, IHD UNES- levels. Those involved ranged from the author- in previous times, as well as trends associated CO, ICSU, WHO, FAO and many others (Sec- ities to individual consumers, to high-level Table 3. The categorisation of water resources by reference to use classes (based on Milly et al. 2008) with development. tion 3). regional representatives, and these all gained Water resources Barrier to use The raw balance is a compilation of natural At that point, Sweden initiated a specific representation in the multidimensional matrix Classes [1,000 m3 per capita per year] 1 >10.0 Limitations in logistics management resources and losses within a defined area over activity under the auspices of IHD UNESCO, devised by da Cunha (Table 2). 2 10.0-1.6 Fundamental management problems a studied period of time, with no delving into ICSU, and IAHS, the newly-established IGBP The objectives here are political or related 3 1.6-1.0 Water stress 12 4 1.0-0.5 Chronic lack of water 13 uses and needs. Devising the balance involves and IGU, the WMO, etc., the main aim being to group preference, and also related to differ- 5 <0.5 Barriers to management reporting of incoming and outflowing water, to ensure the development of water manage- ent emotional approaches to the matter of water as well as losses; with no account being taken ment, to devise key directions and principles shortage. Discussions centred around the de- Table 4. Categorisation in relation to the scale of flow of water resources (based on Rockström, Falkenmark 2014 after: WRI 2014) of water use. relevant to the use of renewable resources, vising of targeted activity to help understand Water resources Intervals for values of water resources [1,000 m3 per capita per year] Rockström, Falkenmark World Resources Institute The natural or raw water balance may even and to identify barriers, factors, and restrictions. the factors determining renewal in aquifers, Classes Sections (2014) (2014) take in all elements of the balance equation. There is a justified need to apply methods from as well as self-purification of waters subject I Below a barrier of water management ≤0.50 ≤1.00 If we confine ourselves to just two elements different disciplines, such as geochemistry, eco- to pollution, in order that water suitable for II Frequent lack of water 0.50-1.0 ≤1.00 depicting water resources, i.e. precipitation nomics, biology, the social sciences, humanities, drinking may be obtained. III Water stress 1.0-1.60 1.1-1.70 * and outflow, then what is being considered and ecology. The relationship between the rate At the same time, attention has been paid IV Fundamental problems of resource management 1.60-10.0 1.70-5.00 V Limited resource management problems 1.60-10.0* 5.00-15.00 is a natural balance and a resource-based bal- of use of water and its quality must be consid- to the regulations with which water-supply sys- VI No fundamental management problems ≥10.0 15.00-50.00 ance including field evaporation and retention. ered, as well as the causes of limited-scope re- tems are managed, with account taken of deci- VII Plenty of water - ≥50.00 The utilitarian balance presents, not so much newal surrounding changes in resources. sion-making about risks, needs and threats. * – Rockström, Falkenmark (2014) introduced the same limit values (thresholds) in classes IV-V the real state of water resources, as the state As her many studies show, Falkenmark Castenson (1989/1990), Falkenmark of use (reserves, consumption, and demand), (1983, 1984, 1989a-b; Falkenmark et al. (1989/1990) and Hoffman et al. (2000) sought with no account taken of changes in cycling 1991) played a pioneering role in formulating to draw conclusions about how the consumption newable water, considered in a traditional way and more account of new developments in wa- use and manage resources better in areas of wa- and use, even though these factors may turn principles and devising ways of using surface of drinking water should be prioritised in its var (treating water as a technical factor), or else ter management, and renewable resources tak- ter deficits, where climate change is also con- out to be necessary at a further stage of devel- and ground waters in relation to locations of in- ous social, economic, and environmental aspects. in an ecological way, whereby agricultural out- ing their rightful place in line with economic, tributing to water shortages. opment. This balance is part of the wider static takes and with categorisation by precise criteria. Consideration was also given to the rate at which put is accounted for, inter alia. Need for water social, and ecological considerations. Further reports, signed declarations and re- balance category. Thus far, the technical and ecological prin- resources are consumed, and the influence presented with the aid of a block diagram in- port syntheses, including reports from Kindler The planned and prospective balance involves ciples in force for intakes of water involve im- of consumption on pollution and water quality. cludes and illustrates two cases, of which one MEASUREMENT OF THE DEFICIT (2009, 2014, 2016), the 2013 IPCC Report, forecasting resource use and directing planned porting the water from source (underground) This is what da Cunha (1989/1990, page 27) did, is traditional, relating to endogenous water IN RENEWABLE WATER RESOURCES and the Millennium Development Goals (2015) management in line with a development plan parts of a basin, with export taking place by developing a suitable analytical matrix. resources available for use as opposed to lost; The growing deficit in flowing and under- also confirm empirically, growing shortages that takes account of an area’s possibilities where downstream. This dynamic has hydrodynam- Awareness of the uses of water resources and the other is ecological, in that it includes ground water resources was raised by the UN of water as reflections of ever-greater instability resources are concerned. This is a dynamic con- ic and geochemical implications and is related should respond to different levels of human ac- water available for plant production (in for- as a worldwide problem as early as in 1992 of the climatic and hydrological cycles. These ceptualisation. to the way in which processes of self-treatment tivity engaged in at different levels of adminis- ests, fields, and meadows), and accounting for at the Rio de Janeiro “Earth Summit”. However, shortages are exacerbated by the increasing de- The prospective balance, covering a period or self-purification operate. It is further quali- trative organization. production losses as given by the difference be- the resulting Agenda 21 (Adoption of an Agree- mands for water imposed by different branches of 25-30 years, is at the same time a balance fied by water-use or water-consumption catego- Falkenmark and Chapman (1989) further tween outflow, precipitation and evaporation. ment on Global Environment and Develop- of the economy, by agriculture, and by human of the planned type. ries (Table 1). presented (as in Fig. 5 here) a scheme relating To sum up, in the 1980s there was a (still-top- ment) was not at that stage determined enough needs in general. The operative balance depicts the develop- This categorisation takes account of the ob- to water needs with reference to the macro-per- ical) major change in approaches to water-re- in its justification for the need to confine civili- The rd3 World Water Forum was host- ment of a planned balance as applied practically. jective of water use in relation to the form of hu- spectives of various countries. The intake of re- source use, with decision-makers taking more sation’s development by having it save on water ed by Japan in 2002, at Kyoto University. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

The Forum undertook an overall assessment ecological value is assigned to water, and it has water and management is not adequate. It is also (2004). This water may be augmented by so- 2010). Natural rights form part of classical eth- Table 5. Average capacity of virtual of the Earth’s resources of water in the context become a priority in relation to the UN’s Sus- important for a distinction to be drawn between called “grey water,” i.e. effluent from any uses ics and are near-ecological in character; because water footprint for the selected products of risk and demand, inter alia for the melio- tainable Development Goals. permanent water shortages brought about that do not involve faecal contamination. humans need water, they have a fundamental (based on Mioduszewski 2006) ration or irrigation of areas producing crops. In the wake of this activity, work commenced by human activity, and drought that is the result At one time, precipitation was not regarded right of access. Of course, giving effect to such Product/weight or volume Capacity of virtual water [L] Drip and areal irrigation systems were found on potential water deficits and shortages, in- of climate change. as a significant contributor to the renewabili- concepts inescapably implies a just division sheet of paper A4 (80 g/m2) 10 to increase the biomass of above-ground parts cluding a classification of relative availabilities. The importance of water to the economy ty of water resources. Today, however, greater and assignment of water resources – a matter slice of bread (30 g) 40 apple (100 g) 70 of plants and roots, as well as transpiration, The synthesis adopted thus far on the basis and to the existence of human beings and na- deficits in the availability of blue water dic- that assumes considerable significance where glass of beer (250 ml) 75 interception, and guttation. The amount of reports from the European Environment ture is clear enough. It is therefore worth cit- tate that grey water should undergo treatment deficits are common. Likewise, Pope Francis glass of wine (125 ml) 120 th of water taken up by plants determines wa- Agency (2012a-b, 2018) points to progress ing the most recent (44 ) Rome Report from to be reclaimed as a resource. Grey water in his Laudato Si Encyclical of 2015 drew at- glass of coffee (125 ml) 140 ter-balance structure (bearing in mind the re- achieved with access to water, a service offered the FAO Committee on World Food Security, originates as effluent from urban infrastruc- tention to the exhaustion of water resources glass of milk (200 ml) 200 taining or expending of resources), while lim- to countries by the European Commission. which refers to environmental threats diag- ture, as runoff from peak high-water events, through excessive consumption and worsening hamburger 2,400 cotton shirt (500 g) 4,100 itations on farm output in times of deficit A good example is also found in the Rome nosed with full argumentation regarding their and as a component of the superficial ground- deficits, as well as the matter of the deteriorating pair of shoes (leather) 8,000 are considerable, especially in the semi-arid Report of the FAO agency responsible for importance to development and the unfavour- water layer. Volumes of grey water are deter- quality of those resources. It needs to be added zone. Evaporation in areas of rice cultivation food security. However, it needs to be realised able influence exerted on long-term change. mined by processes taking place on the land that prospects for socioeconomic development, while the resources available for human uses is found to be increasing (de Wit 1958, 1965, that the climatic and hydrological balance Reference is made there to new proposed solu- surface in urban areas, tending to augment including water management, are very much are reduced markedly as a result (Gutry-Ko- 1969; Stanhill 1960). and other proposals put forward by Budyko tions, and to changing renewable resources short-lived retention at the surface, reflect- linked with the future management of resourc- rycka 2003; Natural Infrastructure: Investing Crop yields (Q) can be calculated by refer- (1977, 1986) are too simplistic to suffice for (von Weizsäcker, Wijkman 2018). This direc- ing the presence of infrastructure. Howev- es, guided by key premises regarding water sav- in Forested Landscapes for Source Water Protec- ence to the simple formula in Equation 11. i.e.: long-term assessments, e.g., in regard to hydro- tion is congruent with the content of the Dec- er, this water can also be used, for example, ing, and the fact that water is a common good tion in the United States 2013; Gutry-Korycka logical drought. In contrast, they would seem laration from the Earth System Science Pro- as a component of green water. that every human being has the right to use 2018). It needs to be stressed that the utilisation adequate to describe meteorological drought gramme (ESSP) issued in 2008 as the so-called Efforts to prevent ever-greater shortag- (Gutry-Korycka 2017). and waste of water in cities is of key relevance Q = A × W (11) 1 (Tallaksen, Van Lanen 2004). “Cape Town Declaration” (Ericssen 2008). es of water in urban areas, involving eco- The optimal future solution for limiting wa- to sustainable development, relating to ratio- The scale of assessment of water resources Directions for contemporary science and geo- nomic impact, require instruments effective ter deficits entails equilibrium among the eco- nal intake and use in the forms of production where: Q is the [kg∙ha-1] dry-mass yield of plants; in relation to consumption is not uniform, politics are also set out, with a view to urgently in the management of renewable resources, nomic, social, and ecological pillars, (i.e. sus- and consumption. The objective is to counter- W the cumulative amounts of water transpiring however; though it may for example be pre- making humankind more aware of the threats as well as relevant regulations. Crisis sur- tainability), thereby then providing a basis for act wastage of water with the possibility of up- -1 -1 [in mm]; and A1 a coefficient [kg∙ha ∙mm ]. sented in the form of an index of the econ- facing the Earth as a whole. Much empha- rounds the greater demands for water exert- the achievement of an appropriate, if limited, take via infiltration and retention, in this way It should be added that Stanhill (1960) was omy’s need for water. On average this would sis is put on indicating key ways in which ed by the populations of cities, as opposed degree of tolerance most closely resembling na- effectively ensuring that, irrespective of the sea-

14 able to show how the value of the coefficient A1 be 80-100 L per capita per day, accord- to counteract the chaos present in urban to the efficiency of urban infrastructure. Short- ture’s principles and processes. son of the year, overburdened and overstretched 15 in the case of grasses (including rice in paddies) ing to the WHO, after Mikulski (1998), and rural development around the world, with ages of water are thus increasingly a significant Development and urban sprawl go hand pipeline waters can be replaced by precipitation. – depends on climate and latitude. Gutry-Korycka (2018), etc. Beyond that, reference made to the so-called “soft develop- barrier to society’s sustainable development in hand with population growth and ever-in- Gardens hanging on walls or located on roofs The amount of water abstracted for econom- a measure of water resources in the economy ment factors”. (World water supply and demand in 2025 2000; creasing population densities in many parts and terraces join gardens, parks, squares, etc. ic purposes is increasing, thereby lowering water may involve the index of water stress, denot- Furthermore, in the English language Rijsberman 2006; Stern 2006; Więcej niż nie- of the world, leading to a rapid reduction in wa- as biologically active areas in which evaporation tables and reducing the flows of rivers (especial- ing a water deficit (shortage) unfavourable the concept of well-being has been introduced dobór: władza, ubóstwo i globalny kryzys wodny ter resources, and concomitant deficits. A ques- and transpiration are enhanced. Economies ly the smaller ones). from the points of view of people and plants in reference to health, family, and quality of life 2006; Drogers, Immerzeel 2008; Kundzewicz, tion therefore arises concerning the directions in the use of water resources can be achieved The Kyoto Water Forum included discus- and animals. Excesses of water (the inundation (Czerny 2008; Gutry-Korycka 2009; Delang Kowalczak 2008; Gerten et al. 2015; Steffen that might be followed to ensure reduced use in this way, as can increases in available resourc- sions on ways of calculating total amounts or submerging of soils and vegetation) disturb 2018). Among the key factors underpinning at al. 2015; The Milennium Development Goals and consumption of water. The need for con- es, without any increase in fees paid. In turn, of water needed for biomass production (in- physiological processes, limiting or preventing existence in this conceptualisation are access Report 2015). Barriers associated with water servation applies to drinking water, precipita- what is negative in the most general sense cluding food production). In the process crop production and affecting the amounts to housing, and the means of obtaining energy shortages include a value for the index of water tion water and its retention, the water in aqui- is the influence of construction on the natural by which plants develop, an important role of fresh or dry biomass produced. for heating and the preparation of meals. There stress that represents an unfavourable situa- fers, and the water assigned to the irrigation environment and its resources. Urban areas is obviously played by evapotranspiration. Those considering the measurement is also a strong acceptance of the need for factors tion for the soil and the plant canopy. In turn, of plants, whether naturally-occurring or culti- use 1/3 of all water (more than 35% accord- However, beyond that, “technological” water of amounts of renewable water resources should helping to safeguard life, such as drinking wa- there may be a water deficit in the context vated. A primary constructive action would be ing to the EU). There is thus a need to make is needed in livestock rearing and in the pro- account for the average resources of flowing ter, food, cultivated land, means of sanitation, of a drought period; or else an excess leading to ensure the collection and retention of water the public aware of the benefits of a joint ap- cessing of food products. The amount of water water as the so-called unit resources of water and access to toilets, medicines, and healthcare. to flooding and puddle stagnation that is un- at or close to the places where precipitation falls proach to multi-family housing construction needed to achieve a unit of output is, as Hoffman expressed gross and per capita. Gutry-Koryc- In summary, Drogers and Immerzeel (2008), favourable for retention by the soils and plants on roofs, terraces, and balconies in continuously for the renewability of resources. et al. (2000), Hoekstra (2003), and Chapagain ka (2014, 2018) holds that the post-War years Brown and Matlock (2011) stress that the mat- (green water). or partially built-up areas, but also on playing Widespread understanding of the “drop and Hoekstra (2004) declared, the so-called (1946-2014) in Poland saw this amount vary ter of access to water, especially that needed for Water stress has been related to human be- fields, lawns, and squares; all the time seeking to drop” concept represents a proper direction virtual water, as described by the water foot- over the range 1,090.6 m3 per capita (in 1990) drinking, sanitation and irrigation, has assumed ings by many authors (including Milly et al. to ensure that water is not wasted through rapid towards more systematic economising on water. print. This change in how water-resource use to 2,767 m3 per capita (in 1948), with an aver- priority status, especially in areas faced with con- 2008 and Rockström et al. 2009), with quan- (and also polluted) surface or near-surface run- With this idea, waters not previously quantified (and especially the consumption of high-qual- age per-capita value of 1,824.3 m3. Gross water siderable shortages. tification mostly involving a subjective 5-point off, from where it goes to sewers or the storm (e.g., water and wastewaters from households) ity water) is assessed is being debated more resources in successive years reflected variability Optimal use of water resources to meet scale (Table 3). drainage system. are treated as useable resources, representing and more, even though it was once ignored. in replenishment by precipitation combined a whole range of municipal, agricultural, A new approach to the protection and use Estimates made in cities suggest that the in- an additional element among the renewable However, if consideration is given to unit with the consumption of water and increasing industrial, energy, recreational, and tourism of water resources (and the reduction of deficits) dex for surface cover of an impermeable nature sources of water. Each user may have the im- demand for water in the production of food human population size. goals should accord with appropriate wa- was announced by the UN in 2005, in the con- is 100-150 m2 per person on average, in Poland; pact of reducing small-scale retention, given and industrial goods, it is clear that require- In the face of modest renewable resourc- ter-management decisions based on knowl- text of the International Decade for Action whereas the WHO suggests that this index that more than 70% of their property on av- ments are greater, as Table 5 makes clear. es at times of water deficit, in-depth work edge, targeted action, and astute strategic “Water for Life”. Regulations for the protec- should be less than 50 m2 per person on aver- erage is no longer a biologically active surface A further global milestone came with the in- on the use of green, grey, and blue waters thinking. The fundamental resources of water tion of water resources and the right of human age. Urbanisation is associated with ever-greater capable of playing an active part in the cycling troduction of a key new process, Integrated Wa- is needed, in areas of advanced urbanisation are what are termed “blue” by Falkenmark beings to potable water and sanitation were sealing-off of the substratum, which increases and retention of green waters through increased ter Resources Management (IWRM). In IWRM in particular. Confining considerations to blue (1986), and Falkenmark and Rockström in turn agreed upon in 2010 (Huntington detention of water on the surface (wetting), evaporation and evapotranspiration. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

From the point of view of the macro-use up to 1,000-1,500 g for some species. Thus, also known as indicative evapotranspiration As indicated beginning in the early 1980s ever-greater precision, regional scenarios taking manent or at least periodic shortages of water and non-renewable consumption of all water there has been a search for less thirsty crops, (in mm), with: by various leading scientists, climate change is un- shape (with their “sub-scaling methods”), deter- would be implied. resources, the water management balance can given the progressive water deficits that have doubtedly influenced by the anthropogenic factors ministic or stochastic drainage-basin models can Numerical simulations (of either the equilib- be a monitoring tool to track various objec- been observed. This need is all the more rel- referred to, as official reports from the IPCC (e.g. be verified with respect to precipitation and out- rium or dynamic types) that can be used to assess CWB = P – E (13) tives and priorities (municipal, industrial, agri- evant given the inevitability of human pop- r p in 2013 and 2014) make clear. This fact has gained flow, andinter alia the water balance and/or cli- changes in renewable resources of flowing water culture, forestry, or fish-farming, wherein both ulation growth, which will demand further confirmation empirically, despite opposition from mate-related aspects. arise from combining Regional Global Circu-

blue waters and green waters are used). increases in yields and harvests, all naturally Use is also made of heat-balance equations, some people in various countries. The advances in knowledge have been proving lation Models (GCMR) with a hydrological To increase amounts of green water need- at the cost of water used. with net radiation determined, along with As Dooge (1982) stated, the influence exceptionally valuable, while mathematical mod- model of the conceptual type in which spatial- ed by Poland’s agriculture and horticulture Drought during the growing season is a ma- all the component parts (heat fluxes), as cal- of global climatic warming opened a key stage elling has become more and more reliable, with ly-clustered or dispersed parameters describing as in the Netherlands, grey water, derived jor problem that extends beyond the hydro- culated in Equation 4 above. CWB assumes in the development of a new and crucial area operative versions now suitable for use in the fore- processes are represented physically and dy- from the discharge of groundwater and some- logical realm into the economic and ecological positive or negative values, the latter indi- of hydrology. It provided a kind of “rejuvenat- casting of processes occurring on various scales. namically with an appropriate time-step, along what-polluted surface runoff into watercourses, domains. Things are only likely to get worse cating drought during the course of the hy- ing elixir” for disciplines engaged in the study Quantitative and qualitative assessment with an adopted scenario for economic devel- can be used. During the growing season, crops as precipitation anomalies seem to worsen, drological year. Persistent shortfalls of water of water(s), as well as for the closely related fields of changes in the proportionality between dif- opment. Generated fields for air temperature, are irrigated with water resources more available with the direct result of a potentially disrupted resources in agriculture are likely to become of meteorology, geodesy, cartography, and geo- ferent forms of retention and river outflow were atmospheric precipitation, heat-balance compo- and less costly than potable water. hydroclimatic balance. The negative impacts increasingly evident. CWB values, and hence physics. Here, simultaneously, was a great meth- measures of what consequences global warming nents, field evaporation, and evaporation from Most forecasts indicate that the great- of water deficits on soil and plants (and rivers climatic shortfalls in precipitation, de- odological catalyst, especially where mathemat- of the atmosphere was having for water resourc- the surfaces of open water reflect the circum- est future use of water will be in agriculture. and superficial sources of groundwater) can pend on the method applied in calculat- ical modelling was concerned. The integration es. The ongoing developments in this field were stances in a meso-scale area that is the subject

If cultivated plants have sufficient water, threaten crop yields, reducing them by more ing indicative evapotranspiration (Ept). of Earth-sciences disciplines was developing thus very much targeted and fully justified in sub- of analysis, in the form of spatial breakdowns then the overall increase in yields will depend than 25%. In turn, retention in a given area An absolute assessment of the water involved around a matter as crucial as the continued exis- stantive terms. Often what were involved were re- that are set against long-term (20- or 30-year) on the potential transpiration, and hence may reach a critical state (Kasperska-Woło- in plant production may be achieved by ref- tence of the human species (as well as other spe- gions and basins already poor in water resources, reference means adopted as stationary values. the rate of conversion of water into water wicz, Łabędzki 2003; Łabędzki et al. 2010). erence to the difference between precipitation cies), and although naturally renewable, water with the consequence that they might be particu- However, this condition is not always met. vapour. The demand exerted in this con- Agro-climatologists also adopt a standardised and evapotranspiration. was obviously one of the critical factors. larly vulnerable to changes in water cycling. As lev- In the context of mathematical model- text during the growing season varies from climatic water balance as a measure of shortfalls In summary, users of both real and virtu- The linking of Global Circulation Mod- els of solar radiation increase, and along with them ling what can be addressed are not mere- species to species. Water management seeks in water supply, (termed KBW in Polish) as was al water are not just the population, or in- els (GCM) scenarios with hydrological mod- the temperature and humidity of the air, there ly shortages, but also surfeits, of water out the best solutions in relation to species noted above (after Łabędzki 2003; Łabędzki, dustry, or farming; but also include forests els of drainage basins requires the applica- must be a reduction in the magnitude of water in the form of peak high-water events of in- achieving ever-greater yields, or amounts Adamski 2010; Wibig 2012; Wypych, Kowanetz and nature. This truth clearly influences tion of methods for mathematical rescaling resources and their availability, and hence also no creasing regularity or height, induced by pre-

16 of fresh or dry biomass. Yields will be higher 2017). This measure is based on standardised the cycling of water in drainage basins, of the transition of semi-empirical methods guarantee that water will be available at all. How- cipitation, by a combination or precipitation 17 the greater and more stabilised the humidity precipitation and soil humidity, capable of be- and can be used effectively by those seeking from data of low temporal and spatial resolu- ever, in the circumstances of a changing climate, and thawing, or by stormwater flows. of soil. An example is supplied by yields per ing described in various ways, e.g., empirically to determine a balance for water retention tion to high-resolution data (Kaczmarek 1996; this kind of assessment is not an easy task, because Circumstances of the inadequate or ex- hectare in relation to permissible variations similar to the model arrived at by the French that takes in both quantitative and qualita- Gutry-Korycka 1996; Lenartowicz, Gutry-Kory- water within each area, region or basin is in con- cess presence of water resources are perceived in humidity. Generally speaking, the water climatologists Turc and Pike (1964 after: Dooge tive aspects of the resource. What is involved cka 2009), etc. The confirmation of the influence stant circulation. That means that the reserve avail- in the context of the threats to civilisation they used in agriculture (be it grey, green or blue) 1982). As verified in the northern Sahara, here is a conscious steering of the water-bal- of global climate change on hydrological systems able at any given moment is actually in a constant potentially pose. Thus, these deviations from is almost 100% irretrievable as a resource, be- this holds that: ance structure in agricultural areas in relation was essential on both the mesoscale and the re- state of flux. Amounts of water in circulation norms have often become the centre of atten- ing liberated by plants via the stoma and pass- to the uses of surface water and near-surface gional scale. However, the rates and directions determine the size of the renewable resource. tion nationally or internationally at too late ing to the atmosphere, thanks to the process- groundwater. Waters of good quality lying of the changes involved may be related to dif- The first measure of this quantity adopted was a stage, especially for those who are actually us- CWB = ∑P – 0.4t + 15-1I + 50 (12) es of interception, transpiration, guttation, r at greater depth, and only marginally renew- ferent processes in different ways. Matters exert- the long-term (multi-annual) mean obtained for ing or managing the given water. and dew formation. able, should in turn be the subject of special, ing an influence here include model precision, total amounts of precipitation falling in given In the context of this article, there is a need

Work by Łabędzki et al. (2010, 2014) where: ∑Pr is the total for corrected monthly pre- permanent protection. methods of estimation, and the measurement years. In contrast, the mean expressed on an areal to review the historical background, in order shows that precipitation totals and distributions cipitation totals [in mm]; t is the mean monthly data used in projections for determining as realis- basis has tended to involve the long-term river dis- to understand the developmental stages that have during the growing season (for sugar beets, value for air temperature [oC]; and I the month- 6. THE RENEWABILITY tically as possible the probable changes in system charge, or else has been seen from the point of view been experienced. Many problems, which were for example), with a two-month time lag, de- ly total for overall 24-hour solar radiation [ex- OF WATER RESOURCES dynamics (IPCC 2000, 2007, 2012, 2014). of the water-management balance in which there once novel, now underpin contemporary un- termine the relationship with soil moisture, pressed as calories per cm2 per day]. AND THE IMPACT Among those addressing such issues were is a description of characteristics of resources as: derstanding of mechanisms and global climatic though each crop reacts to water amendments The time scale of saturation at which drought OF CLIMATIC WARMING Gleick (1987), Ojima (1992), Lettenmaier average or low, disposable, inviolable, guaranteed processes, as well as the means of adaptation, at a different rate. As Chapters 4 and 5 showed in the soil can develop is 1-3 months, after which Fluxes of water and heat through the soil- (1994), Kaczmarek (1996) and Gutry-Koryc- or other, from the point of view of the demand for albeit under economic conditions that remain when dealing with the description of hydro- hydrological drought ensues, possibly persisting and-plant column and the drainage basin are ka (1996). They all drew attention to the crisis economic use. as yet unknown. logical processes, reference should be made for several months or even years. Wibig (2012) subject to the influence of climatic conditions facing water, given assessments suggesting ma- The first attempts at numerical simula- So, what are, and what will be, the responses to the mid-1970s, when about 70% of water estimates the variability in soil-humidity condi- that are inter alia shaped by the chemical com- jor changes in resources. Such findings offered tion were made in the USA, Canada, Europe, of hydrological systems to future global chang- used (8,101,300,000 m3) went to industry, with tions by reference to the Standardized Precip- position of the atmosphere, which regulates both impulse and inspiration for digital models Australia, and Japan at the end of the 1980s. es? If humankind elects to ignore the problem the municipal management in second place itation Evaporation Index (SPEI). It is recom- heat (and therefore energy) exchange processes. of global climate to be developed, with spatial- They showed that as a consequence of global (as is hinted at) then catastrophe awaits our at about 17%). That left only 13% for agricul- mended that evapotranspiration be represented These processes themselves change at various ly-dispersed or clustered parameters, and a possi- climatic warming renewable water resources planet. Renewable resources of water (including ture at the time. as a function of potential evaporation (after rates because of rising emissions of greenhouse bility of achieving more and more accurate long- during warm seasons might become 15-30% groundwater) are already declining, with droughts Subsequently, marked changes in these Thornthwaite, Mather 1957; or Penman 1956). gases, which are associated with greater use term forecasts (with development scenarios for smaller than in the baseline period, while those and heatwaves increasing in scale and frequency, proportions were planned with agriculture Humidity is then classified in relation to SPEI of energy from burning fossil fuels. Deforesta- the economy generated ever-more effectively). in cool seasons might increase at various rates. while both soil humidity and precipitation totals receiving the largest share. Plant species differ by reference to 9 intervals for CWB values, re- tion, the intensification of farming, the activ- Thesemodels benefitted from new digital meth- Given the increased demand for water imposed are in decline. in how they use water to produce biomass, typ- flecting the difference between the mean cor- ities of industry, and the transportation sector ods, multidimensional computer graphics, areal by the economy, urbanisation, agriculture, live- The causes of increases in the Earth’s tem-

ically using about 200 g of water to produce 1g rected precipitation total (Pr), and the mean are all contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and satellite imagery of finer and finer resolution, stock rearing, drainage, irrigation, the power perature (and hence premises underpinning

of dry mass; the amount can be much greater: total for potential evapotranspiration (Ep), and climate change. etc. With measurement data being obtained with industry, other industry, and construction, per- climatic warming), have been of interest to geo- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

physicists for almost 200 years. This view is ac- represents. Re-expressing these kinds of prob- Recent (2013 and 2014) IPCC reports make of the infrastructure not merely moving cording to Malinowski (2019), though it was lems as the economic costs of causes and effect, reference to Rockström et al. (2009), Rockström water but also supplying capacity for its not confirmed by Biswas (1970), who never- Stern (2006, 2019) expressed the view that net and Falkenmark (2014), Vörösmarty et al. (2010, retention. Most generally, it is essential theless referred to the French mathematician global emissions of greenhouse gases must fall 2013), and Steffen et al. (2015), expressing that outflow from impermeable surfaces like and physicist Fourier (1719), with his collection to zero by 2050, to prevent air temperature ris- the growing risk that the Earth’s capacity might roads and pavements should be redirected, of temperature data. This work may be treated ing by more than ≈2°C. Management of water be exceeded through excessive consumption for example, by increasing the permeability as a precursor to the discovery of the mechanism resources was then assigned fifth place among six of water, by what can be regarded as non-eco- of surfaces on squares, car parks, sports fields, underpinning the Earth’s energy balance, as well sectors of the economy crucial to the achievement nomical use of that resource, and the destruc- etc. It is in this kind of activity that we see as the way in which it may be assessed. In prac- of sustainable infrastructure development. These tion in both qualitative and quantitative terms appropriate adaptation to climate change tice, however, about 150 years would pass be- are, in rank order, power supply, urbanisation, of the natural environment, including plant cov- (Burszta-Adamiak 2015, 2018). Water man- fore the issue was taken up by Anglo-Irish nat- food production, land use, water management, er, soil, and even geological structure. agement is far more effective, and far easier, ural philosopher Tyndall, who noted the key and industry. Integrated together, since 2018 these In light of these concerns, it has proved where there is a centralised system serving

significance of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, while sectors form a new concept of macroeconomic ac- possible to identify sustainable routes to de- this purpose. Rainwater runoff and water also referring to methane and water vapour. tivity known as the New Climate Economy. Water velopment, as well as barriers that should not from melting snow and ice can in this case It is also worth citing the views of Belgian resources obviously play a key role. be crossed. Many researchers, including Gal- be transferred to reservoirs, and resources re- Fig. 6. Sustainability science within a divided world (Science 2001, vol. 292, No 5517, p. 641-642; boxes scientists at the University of Liège, Spring lopin (2012), Cosgrove and Cosgrove (2012), couped by way of systems of transfer to ar- added by the author) and Roland (Demarée, Verheyden 2016). 7. A NATURE-BASED Bierkens (2015) and Steffen et al. (2015) tificial ecosystems set up in the immediate In 1896, these authors were cited by Arrhenius. SOLUTION (NBS) CONCEPT warn against excessive consumption and use vicinity of buildings. and the recovery of species at risk for extinction, presented in Figure 7 showing changes in an eco- They were interested in emissions of greenhouse FOR WATER RESOURCES of water resources. Moreover, an accelerating The 2018 report on NBS makes no mention leading to the protection of whole ecosystems system’s throughputs of matter and energy. gases to the Earth’s atmosphere. In addition The historical review of the development process of global climatic warming overlies of the potential for use of grey infrastructure As opportunities for NBS to be applied Considerable potential for NBS-type

to CO2 and water vapour, infra-red radiation of science, as well as contemporary activity the hydrological cycle, prevailing over all its and grey water. Thus, the following describes are sought, reference will need to be made ideas can be found in references to regional- is absorbed as a result of a rise in equilibrium and international climate policy offers the key components. Meanwhile, the limit of sustain- certain NBS directions and solutions for to the fulfilment of principles set out in the UN’s or local-scale land use, as translated into the rate temperature. Of course, were there to be no nat- challenges for programmes dealing with wa- ability for water resources has not yet been the use of water resources that enjoy that status (2014) Declaration on Water. The assumption of change in water cycling around the short- ural greenhouse effect, life on Earth would not ter and water resources (Section 3). Short- crossed, notwithstanding the ever-growing on account of their being inspired by the laws is that each Member State is obliged to increase branch nexus (taking into account biomass in- be possible at all; this was something that Ar- ages or periodic excesses of water are among risk that shortages will arise; on the other of nature. In terms of broad scope it is green water resources through natural renewability, crement, productivity, and evapotranspiration rhenius did indeed refer to, having discovered the threats to civilisation posed by the natural hand localised problems with excess water can infrastructure that is being referred to, which with efforts also made to achieve improvements (Falkenmark 1989).

18 it at the same time as the ozone layer. More- environment, though a quasi-equilibrium state be observed as ice, glaciers, and snow melt, is capable of operating in parallel, in a mea- in water quality, and long-term sustainabili- A dynamic water-management balance 19 over, at the end of the 19th century it was shown of the Earth is still maintained (Falkenmark, and as flood events, intensify, not least on ac- surable and beneficial way, with grey infra- ty of use. For their part, EU Member States represents a proper basis for the quantitative

that concentrations of CO2 were continuing Rockström 2004; Huntington 2010 et al.). count of higher precipitation totals. structure; where hydrological processes relat- have been called upon since 2011 to rapidly management of water resources, for example, to rise as a result of the burning of fossil fuels. Key resources are those of water and food, In applied science, recent years have seen ing to the quantity and quality of water are and permanently achieve sustainability vis-à- proving helpful in the phase of early warning This finding formed a basis for the estimation as well as biodiversity at the levels of the spe- an opening-up of new possibilities by which integrated. The principal objective is to find vis resources of water (and the ecological state and implementation, as well as facilitated deci- of changes of temperature (Δt) on Earth as more cies or ecosystem. Given the temporal dynam- water deficits may be limited, accelerated, the most appropriate linkage between grey wa- thereof), above all through consumption sion-making for the sustainable use of resources.

or less given by ±ΔCO2. Continuing with ics of phenomena in the environment, as well delayed, or contained both spatially and tem- ter and green water, so that maximum benefit that is adjusted to ensure many different sectors Major opportunities for benefit lie in assess- this thread, it is important to recall the Amer- as causes and effects, it is anticipated that there porally. The use and management of water can be drawn from operating the system and its of the economy can have their demands met. ments of adaptations to global change where ican physicist and astronomer Langley, who will be changes over a longer time period ex- in urban and rural areas to try and economise capacity, with costs minimised, and the number Particularly noteworthy are the conceptions the rate and direction of change in the hydro- studied the transfer of sunlight and infrared tending to 2030, 2050, or even 2100. has had further influence, in the appearance of components limited. for water management in EU Member States logical cycle are concerned. Post-2015 there radiation through the atmosphere at high lati- Two pyramids (as in Fig. 6) represent the vir- of a new area of knowledge (i.e. “Nature-based For an example, we may refer to a mod- set out in the Framework Water Directive, was a particularly lively debate on the signifi- tudes. Malinowski (2019) made the connection tual division of the world into two (northern solutions”) advocated by the last UNESCO el for irrigation by means of the optimisation and thus upheld by both the European Parlia- cance of water for the Earth’s future. In turn, to polar or Arctic strengthening of the green- and southern) parts, which differ across seven International Hydrological Programme Report of efforts to achieve harmony (Čist 2008) ment and the European Environment Agency. the world scientific programme Future Earth house effect. In the 1930s, the British phys- factors (i.e. the age of society, level of wealth, re- (NBS 2018). in the operation of irrigation systems. Work NBS that govern the hydrological and hydrocli- existed alongside the UN and other interna- icist Callendar was a pioneer in explaining sources, type of influence due to climate change The balancing of water resources available by Kovalenko and Mikhaylov (2008) relates matic cycle should be able to supply economic, tional organisations. Most recently (in February how temperature in the atmosphere might rise globally, technologies, and research), as well for use may prove helpful during a period to the control of irrigation in a system, under social, and ecological benefits that provide for 2019), Japan organised the world Ecological in connection with the increased concentration as features of the world’s sustainable develop- of deficit, when it becomes imperative to in- conditions of minimised uncertainty of supply. the optimal utilisation of water in line with Forum in Tokyo.

of CO2 in the air. ment in line with scales of development rang- corporate mechanisms of directing processes It needs to be added that, for exam- the needs of food, energy, and sanitary security. Identified among the key topics for discus- Much later, American research on the isotopic ing from the local to the global (Sustainability of mass and energy exchange, in particular ple, the temporal and spatial modelling The use of green and grey water in connec- sion at the Tokyo Forum were food security

composition of CO2 in the atmosphere, as well Science 2001). with losses of water brought about by planted of very variable agro-hydrological processes tion with suitable infrastructure makes savings and the depletion of natural resources (in- as the oxygen present in ocean sediments and ice Lewis (2012) used an edition of Nature vegetation or that growing naturally (Veld- in a drainage basin often requires 24-hour possible, translating into accelerated renewabil- cluding water). The aim was to bring togeth- cores, confirmed the dependence on the burning to justify and account that, given the presence kamp et al. 2015). This balance requires link- meteorological measurement data; the lack ity of resources, with consequent knock-on ef- er representatives of academia and business, of coal and other fossil fields, which was direct- of climate change, we should soon be need- ing identified resources and needs for water of these data precludes necessary simulation fects for financing as well. industrialists, citizens, and students. The dis- ly responsible for atmospheric concentrations. ing an expanded network serving the interests arising from the economy, as well as man- and forecasting in the service of decision-mak- In United Nations World of Water De- cussion centred on solutions that might prove Earth’s sensitivity, even to limited climate forc- of planetary research, to include problems as- agement within the framework of land-use ing (Kuchar 2004). velopment Report (2018), examples of NBS effective and could be implemented rapidly, ing, is great, while disturbances and their effects sociated with various aspects of water resources. planning that references the main econom- The latest NBS generate environmental, eco- in the form of theoretical curves have been select- in this way serving the achievement of sus- expand, up to the planetary scale. However, international organisations like ic, political, and social considerations. Inte- nomic, and social benefits relating to the use ed carefully enough to ensure the representation tainability in nature and society. A Forum was To sum up, global warming continues, the UN, UNESCO, ICSU, UNEP, WHO, grated management of resources is especially of water resources, especially in terms of health of benefits, above all quantitative ones concern- devoted to the main aim of the Global Envi- and scientific uncertainty about changes in re- IGBP, FAO, IPCC, FUTURE EARTH important in urban and industrial areas, in- and sanitation, as well as food, water, and en- ing renewable resources in connection with long- ronmental Facility, said to have »Clearly stated newable resources of water is ever greater, given and others have based their long-term forecasts cluding the building, redeveloping or revit- ergy security. These ideas promote economic term economic benefit. These curves appropri- stewardship over the Earth in the Anthropo- the dynamic configuration that the climate system for resources on the period extending to 2050. alising of stormwater drainage, with the aim growth while maintaining biological diversity, ately correspond to actions taken, with one such cene Era and introduced the concept of Global Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

Commons« (United Nations World of Water De- Contemporary knowledge and techno- the background provided for in legislation, leading factors promoting change. These exam- and legislation, as well as management in the di- velopment Report 2018). logical progress, involving ICT in general, again with the aim of harmonious coopera- ples include Green Cities in the UK, countries rection of diversification. Nakamura from Hokkaido University and mathematical modelling in particular, tion proceeding in different sectors seeking in the Baltic basin and northern Adriatic; north- In sum, there is still a need to consider demonstrated the recovery process in the Jap- support several key tasks. Appropriate, optimal to achieve their aims. Pursuit of NBS to pro- ern Italy, Poland, and Scandinavian countries the directions taken and the progress made anese environment by reference to many im- methods and solution-oriented functions need tect water resources should entail precise defi- other than Denmark (reintroduction of river around the world in achieving stated objec- ages, while also introducing how useful green to be found, in order that many processes re- nition of the potential for goals and objectives paleo-meanders along larger rivers); western tives, which are based on awareness of joint infrastructure might prove in preventing natu- sponsible for current changes may be assessed. to actually be achieved, with information pro- France, Spain, Portugal, central and southern action under the Earth System Science Part- ral disasters (floods of various kinds, tsunamis, And thus, it is water, present in various states vided current conditions and the problems still Italy, Denmark, Greece, Romania, Hungary, nerships (ESSP), Earth Environmental Science droughts, etc.). Finally, there was a presenta- in all the spheres that is of priority significance! needing to be resolved, i.e. if Agenda 2030 Bulgaria, southern Austria and Switzerland, (EES), World Resources and Environment tion of a relevant Programme within the In- The management of water resources in the con- guidelines are to be more fully realized. as well as southern Germany (forecasting devel- (WRE) and “Partnerships are key to success Fig. 7. Change in benefit flows with ecosystem ternational Global Environment Sustainability text of urban and rural governance must limit The UN has among its key objectives the di- opment of agricultural practices). In contrast, in the Future”, as adopted by the UN, World modification (based on Acreman 2001) (IGES) framework. or ameliorate negative social and environmental vision of the world into two groups (Fig. 6), in NE Germany, the Benelux, northern Austria, Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Earth The involvement of interested parties in seek- impacts. as well as seamless supply water to human- the Czech Republic and Slovakia it is re-affor- WHO, the Club of Rome and Vatican World The NBS concept developing currently ing to achieve permanent infrastructural solu- Ultimately, NBS methods need to be ap- kind and the economy, with each citizen en- estation that is stressed; along with the develop- … 2013, and Laudato Si of 2015), as well may be understood in two ways: as nature for tions in this field requires a transformation, proached with caution, separately for quantities joying access to water supply and sanitation ment of polders in NE and N France, the Bene- as many other documents and scientific papers water, and as water for nature. In both cases, or totally new approaches and challenges. of water resources dependent on hydrological services, and with efforts also made to reduce lux and western Germany. (Couwe 2009), plus works published to popu- the beneficiaries are water resources, curtailed processes, but also with respect to water quality and limit the risk of natural disasters like floods In line with the relevant planning, the ob- larise the idea. shortages and deficits, and hence enhanced 8. CONCLUSIONS and the processes of geochemical pollution integrat- and droughts. The role of ecosystems in linking jectives set and effective changes foreseen have The new trends in hydrology, water man- protection. AND REMARKS ed with it. Although this article does not include new infrastructural developments with proper a very significant financial dimension. High agement, hydroengineering and technology In summary, existence in the longer term will solutions applied in biomanipulation that resort management lies in the way we seek to imitate implementation and maintenance/operating will become elements of contemporary science ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS be very much supported by the integration into to ecohydrological measures, these do exist. the laws of nature more and more faithfully, costs translate into fees and taxes, and there and practice. Finally, the author would like to thank Prof. economies of construction, industry, spatial Austrian geochemists like Weigelhafer et al. given that this is a condition if continuity over will need to be special subsidies at the local, Efforts to explain the causes and effects Dr Janusz Kindler from Warsaw University planning, and the management and protection (2013) stress how necessary it is for the possi- the long term is to be assured. And in the future, central and EU levels. Legislative provisions of contemporary development demands of Technology in Poland, Prof. Dr Henry Van of water resources whose renewability is assured bility of NBS being considered for approaches key activities will entail restoration of much-de- and authorising regulations are both essential inter-disciplinary or trans-disciplinary ap- Lanen from Wageningen University in Nether- by effective conservation and limitations on lev- to water resources, both for quantity and qual- graded aquatic or semi-aquatic ecosystems to this kind of activity, while inter-sectoral co- proaches. It will be necessary to continue lands for their help in support and providing els of stress. ity, with limited use, for example, being made to a natural state, inter alia for their utilitarian operation is foreseen, or has already taken its with forecasting dynamic processes of water constructive and critical feedback which helped

20 As with the biological approach, a broad of retention. and intrinsic values. proper place in provisions of the EU’s Water circulation, as these operate on the global, to improve the quality of this paper. 21 framework of designated tasks has been adopt- Sectoral accessibility of water resources A key element connected with the above Framework Directive. continental, regional, or local scales. For these What is more, I would like to express my ed in line with a definition whereby the IUCN achieved sustainably (and hence with ongoing aim is the redevelopment and restoration The humanitarian aspect of water resources goals to be achieved it is important that there gratefulness for support in editing this article. considers NBS as »actions to protect, sustain- renewability assured) represents a key challenge of grey infrastructure, requiring a remodel- also makes it imperative that waters are pro- be widespread awareness of choices, confi- ably manage, and restore natural or modified needing to be integrated with a legislative ap- ling of agriculture and redevelopment of its tected and limits imposed, globally, regional- dence on the part of society, and an identi- REFERENCES ecosystems, that address societal challenges ef- proach, governance at various levels, and ex- systems of irrigation and drainage. The reduc- ly, and locally. 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That makes tercourses should represent a multidimensional ating in closed cycle to markedly improve NBS, ter management, but also to safeguard water than half of the human population will face • Bennett G., Nathaniel C., Hamilton K., 2013, it important for integrated solutions to be ad- function of intervention resulting from impacts in urban areas in particular; while the uncertain- to some critical level in the context of shared the threat of permanent deficit of fresh wa- Charting new waters: State of watershade pay- opted to limit negative environmental impacts, of decision-making in such critical circumstanc- ty surrounding integration with grey and green benefit. The NBS return of water resources ter resources. Thus, there is a clear impera- ments 2012, Ecosystem Marketplace, available in regard to both the quality and the quantity es. UNESCO, in fact, appeals to each Member infrastructure in rural areas may prove more to nature is not a panacea for everything, how- tive for actions that will reduce this risk. at https://www.forest-trends.org/wp-content/ of water. Appropriate decision-making is very State to gain regional and local experience difficult (yet still a necessity). It should be add- ever, and the directions indicated here represent Can the situation involving unsustainable uploads/imported/state-of-watershed-pay- much dependent on scientists’ clear identifica- of what may be implemented in different ba- ed that the latest UNESCO IHP Report (from a long and hard road to the achievement of a de- management of water resources somehow be ments-2012_1-22-13_web-pdf.pdf (data access tion of environmental processes that play a key sins, leading to cohesive spatial management 2018) presents the most major and most effec- sirable future situation. turned around? 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gional, and local scales. the funding of planned solutions set against to occur every 20 years on average, and to limit and justified in the context of planned solutions and experience, will be essential. and CO2 in determining transpiration photo- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influence of hydro-climatological balances and Nature-based solutions (NBS) in the management of water resources Volume 8 | Issue 1 Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka

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1. INTRODUCTION ingly being used to alleviate problems during cieniowa St. in the north-east, by Półłan- In the modern world, human economic activi- excessive rainfall events (Boancă et al. 2018; ki St. in the north and by uncultivated ties play an increasingly large role in the changes Wałęga et al. 2018). Such systems are grouped land covered with bushes and single trees in hydrological conditions in anthropogenical- in the category of low-impact development in the south-west. The drained basin mostly ly transformed basins. Thus far, human activity (LID) or best management practices (BMPs) has the features of an urbanized basin, which has caused several disruptions to the water cir- (Ahiablame et al. 2013). The treatment practic- is characterized by the occurrence of imper- culation and hydrological regime in the con- es have been identified as sustainable methods vious surfaces, namely asphalt roads, pave- text of 24-hour cycles, seasonal cycles, and cy- of managing stormwater, e.g., by temporary ments, rails, railway switches and surfaces The influences cles lasting for many years. The effect of these retention and subsequent introduction into under buildings. activities is the number of anthropogenic the ground by infiltration. These solutions are The land in the vicinity of the reservoir consists transformations evident in changes to the re- often considered “best management practices” of grasslands, uncultivated grounds covered with of meteorological tention properties of basins. Most frequently, (Fletcher et al. 2015; Wałęga, Wachulec 2018). bushes and fields for vegetable cultivation. There these changes are multifaceted and difficult The “sponge city” is a new concept that can is no surface water drain in the analyzed area. and hydrological factors to assess objectively as there is no record help to increase the protection of a city against In the drained area, there are sub-basins with di- of the natural, initial conditions (Gutry-Kory- storm floods (Dong et al. 2019). This con- verse coefficients of surface runoff (Table 1). cka, Ciepielowski 1993). Urbanisation and in- cept is based on green/gray stormwater in- The geology of the area, where the storage on the operation dustrialisation have a particularly adverse effect frastructure (Li et al. 2018); through differ- and infiltration reservoir is located, is the southern on the hydrological regime (Byczkowski 1997). ent protection and planning strategies for edge section of the high fluvial terrace of the Vis- and performance Urbanization tends to substitute natural vege- these areas, the integration and connectivity tula River. Underneath the surface, there is a layer tation with impervious surfaces, thus reducing of the ecological sources can be improved, of semi-permeable Holocene and Quaternary Vis- infiltration (Burszta-Adamiak et al. 2019). resulting in a higher urban ecological securi- tula silts with a high content of organic substances of a semi-natural It also tends to eliminate natural retention ty (Dong et al. 2019). The efficiency of these and a thickness of a few meters. ponds and to rectify river courses, thus greatly devices depends on local hydrogeological con- There are layers of Pleistocene and fluviogla- interfering with superficial flows (O’Driscroll ditions such as ground permeability, the condi- cial sands and gravel of the glaciation period stormwater reservoir et al. 2010; Wałęga et al. 2015). The natu- tion of ground water levels and meteorological in the south of Poland, descending to a depth ral water cycle, such as rainfall interception, conditions, such as precipitation and potential of 10 to 20 m. The stratum for quaternary Andrzej Wałęga, Dariusz Młyński infiltration and evaporation, was unsettled evaporation. formations is formed by Neogene, Tertia- 28 University of Agriculture in Kraków, Faculty of Environmental Engineering and Land Surveying 29 Mickiewicza 24/28, 31-059 Kraków, Poland, e-mail: [email protected] by urbanization, which caused a series of ur- The aim of this research was to determine ry, and grabowieckie layers consisting of silts ban flood management issues, e.g. frequent the influences of meteorological and hydrogeo- and sands. On the basis of the expert geologi- Artur Radecki-Pawlik Cracow University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warszawska 24, 31-155 Kraków, Poland flooding, water environment deterioration logical factors on the changes in water levels cal opinion issued by BP and RBK in Kraków, DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/111032 and serious water shortages (Tan et al. 2014). in a rainwater storage and infiltration reservoir. it was stated that the water table is at a depth When the watertightness of a basin is in- of approximately 2.9 m below the surface. creased, infiltration and evapotranspiration are 2. DESCRIPTION According to boreholes in the area, down limited, leading to a decrease in the ground- OF THE EXAMINED to a depth of 4.5 m, there are sand layers water level. In turn, sewage systems, which RESERVOIR with a filtration coefficient to the value of -1 -5 -1 are adapted to quickly carry away rainwa- The examined reservoir is located in the urban kf = 8.6 m·d (9.95·10 m·s ). The given fil- ter from the drained basins, may contribute and industrial area of Krakow (małopolskie tration coefficient was determined on the basis to the rise of flow concentration in receiving voivodeship), on ground owned by the Pol- of the granulometric composition of the ground. bodies of surface water during excessive rainfall ish State Railways (PKP), Kraków-Bieżanów As there is electricity running along the water table, events. Huge amounts of rainfall water, which branch, on the left side of the railway embank- the contractor left a 0.5-m thick layer (measured from occur during thawing and excessive rainfall ment of the Mydlniki-Gaj route, near the via- the reservoir bottom) of cohesive soil, with a filtra- -1 -8 -1 events, overload the hydraulics of classic rain- duct over the Półłanki St. (Fig. 1). tion coefficient ofk f = 0.0086 m·d (9.90·10 m·s ) fall sewage systems, consequently leading to lo- The location, shape and size of the res- to balance the pressure of the groundwater head. cal damage within the basin area. To prevent ervoir are determined by the railway track Grain size analysis of the reservoir bed confirmed ABSTRACT. The aim of this research was to determine the influences of meteorological and hydrogeological factors on the water level of a rainwater storage such damage, semi-natural devices are increas- embankment in the north-west, by Zło- the previous predictions concerning permeability. and infiltration reservoir. The examined reservoir is located in the urban and industrial area of Krakow, on ground owned by the Polish State Railways (PKP), Kraków-Bieżanów branch. We analyzed a range of climatic (precipitation and evaporation) and hydrological factors (water stage in the reservoir Table 1. The areas of sub-basins the urban and industrial area of Krakow with their corresponding and groundwater level) and their inter-relationships to determine their influences on the water depth regime in the storage and infiltration reservoir. Based coefficients of surface runoff (Krzanowski, Radecki-Pawlik 1998)

on our results, the increase in the water table level in the reservoir is connected with the increase in the groundwater level and it is observed in the spring Watershed area Coefficient of surface runoff Land cover [km2] [-] and summer periods, when meltwater and stormwater enter the reservoir. At the end of July, the groundwater table level increases because of excessive Uncultivated ground and vegetable fields 0.387 0.150 rainfall events. Throughout the entire experimental period, the reservoir was fed by infiltering groundwater from the upper parts of the basin. The water Railway areas 0.058 0.300 depth averages in the reservoir were closely correlated with the average groundwater table levels, the sum of precipitation from the week prior to the date Roads, car parks, etc. 0.005 0.700 of the examination of water depth in the reservoir, and the sum of potential evaporation in the given week. All 0.450 0.175*

* – mean value of surface-runoff coefficient

KEYWORDS: storm reservoir, heavy rainfall, best management practices, infiltration. Fig. 1. Location of the storage and infiltration

SUBMITTED: 1 March 2019 | REVISED: 15 May 2019 | ACCEPTED: 22 July 2019 reservoir Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influences of meteorological and hydrological factors on the operation and performance of a semi-natural stormwater reservoir Volume 8 | Issue 1 Andrzej Wałęga, Dariusz Młyński, Artur Radecki-Pawlik

In accordance with the modified Pruszyński meth- is the storage of water after storms or long peri- Potential evaporation was determined via Heterogenous variables were used in fur- Table 2. Results of the Kruskal-Wallis test of variable homogeneity

od, aerometric analysis demonstrated the occur- ods of rainfall. For this reason, this meteorological a Piche evaporimeter, which was installed near ther analyses as they have a decisive influence Variables χ2 value Analysis results rence of cohesive soil at the bottom of the reservoir, factor should significantly affect the water level the reservoir on May 18, 2004, calculated on the operation of the reservoir. The strong Water depth in the reservoir [m] 18.831 Heterogenous Groundwater table level ground water table Heterogenous the grain-size distribution of which corresponds with in the reservoir and the speed at which the reser- on the basis of values from the periods between mutual connection between the heterogeneous 16.179 [m under the ground level] Homogeneous silty clay loams. The granulometric composition voir empties. Evaporation from the water surface the readings from the water stage rod. Air tem- variables supports their use in further analyses. Potential evaporation [mm] 1.417 Homogeneous of the ground at the bottom of the reservoir is also af- constitutes another important factor affecting perature was measured simultaneously with The interconnections between the selected fac- Depth of precipitation [mm] 3.175 fected by deposits from excess (unleached) rainwater. the water depth oscillations in reservoirs with stand- the evaporation rate. tors were determined on the basis of the analysis The reservoir complex consists of the follow- ing water. The evaporation magnitude depends The verification of data used in the model was of simple and partial correlations. The impor- ing devices for water intake, transport, storage on several factors, such as water vapor pressure, based on the examination of genetic and statistical tance of the correlation coefficients was estab- Table 3. Statistical characteristics of the analyzed variables in the storage and infiltration reservoir and the treatment of rainwater coming in from moisture shortage, air temperature, wind speed, homogeneity. In the case of homogeneous data, lished by means of the comparison of their values in the urban and industrial area of Kraków

Standard Coefficient the basin: as well as the shape and dimension of the reservoir constant factors affect the process of the given with the critical values read in the statistical ta- Minimum Maximum Amplitude Variable Mean [m]* deviation of variation [m]* [m]* [m]* • Two concrete reduction chambers with (Jurak 1976; Bac, Rojek 1979; Atlas 1986; Breit- phenomenon (Ozga-Zieliński 1987; Ozga-Ziel- bles at the given significance level α and n degrees [m]* [–] sedimentation tanks, located in ditch- schneider et al. 1993; Jaworski 1997). In his sense, ińska, Brzeziński 1997). As the test results show, of freedom. Reservoir 0.385 0.140 0.780 0.193 0.501 0.640 es of the railway viaduct along Półłanki the analysis of a range of climatic and hydrological the change of the water depth in the reservoir has Piezometer 1 1.890 0.735 2.430 0.374 0.198 1.690 Piezometer 2 2.930 1.600 3.525 0.460 0.157 1.925 St., with 3×400-mm pipelines connecting factors and their inter-relationships can help to de- various origins. In the case of thawing, a slow 4. TEST RESULTS Potential 3.820 0.060 8.100 2.354 0.616 8.040 the chambers; termine their influences on the water depth regime increase in water depth is observed in the res- AND DISCUSSION evapotranspiration • An open channel with a length of 63 m in the storage and infiltration reservoir. ervoir. However, when short-term rainfall from The basic characteristics of the analyzed factors are Precipitation 8.460 0.00 64.00 11.040 1.305 64.000 and a bottom width of 0.4 m, laid at a slope Water depth in the reservoir was read from storms occurs, the reservoir fills up quickly, shown in Table 3, and their variability in the test * for potential evapotranspiration and precipitation values are in mm of 2% and reinforced with prefabricated the installed water stage rod. The oscillations and the water level gradually falls. A similar situ- period is shown in Figures 2a-d. concrete slabs, taking water from the re- of the reservoir water depth were observed ation occurs in the case of variability of the first From the beginning of the tests of 0.525 m on August 2, 2004. A further in- than 9.8% of the total rainfall in the experi- duction chambers to the reservoir, secured from September 2003 to November 2004. level of groundwater. (13/09/2003) until the end of 2004, the wa- crease in water depth was also caused by rain- mental period. at the outlet with a rip-rap to absorb the en- First, readings were taken once a week, Chełmicki (1991) shows that the water table ter depth in the reservoir decreased gradually fall, albeit to a lower degree. This is because After a secondary increase in the groundwa- ergy of the excess rainwater entering the res- and when the measurements of potential evapora- is mainly fed during the thawing period, where- (Fig. 2a), which resulted in the lack of water each consecutive rainfall event fell on saturated ter table level recorded by piezometer 2, a de- ervoir; tion started (21/05/2004), readings were taken as in the summer period, despite the occurrence supply in autumn due to low precipitation. ground, and thus, its ability to be absorbed into crease was observed until October 10, 2004, • A storage and infiltration reservoir with three times a week. of heavy storms, the level of groundwater does A visible fall in the depth of precipitation the ground was limited, which is also proved when the level reached 3.21 m below a bottom area of 1,605 m2 and a maximum The groundwater table level was measured not change significantly. The described rela- in this period was identified (Fig. 2c). Occa- by the increase in the groundwater table near the ground level. Su sequently, the level has 3 30 capacity of 1,951 m ; from January 2003 to November 2004 at pie- tionships show a lack of genetic homogeneity sional precipitation (14.5 mm) did not cause the reservoir. The second visible maximum fill- stabilized at 3.209 m below ground level. 31 • Two piezometers. zometers above and below the reservoir, using in the case of water depth changeability in stor- any visible changes in the reservoir level. up of the reservoir to a value of 0.605 m was The third increase in the groundwater table lev- a hydrogeological whistle. From January 2003 age and infiltration reservoirs and the ground- A significant increase in the reservoir water recorded on August 9, 2004. After this period, el was observed from November 9 to 20, 2004, The examined reservoir is an earthen struc- to May 21, 2004, the level of the groundwater water table. The remaining variables are de- depth was preceded by a larger precipitation the water depth again decreased to a minimum reaching 2.08 m below the ground level. ture in the shape of a wedge, narrower at the in- table was measured once a week, and subse- termined by constant factors; thus, it can be in the given period of time and increased value of 0.205 m on October 4, 2004. The influence of the storage and infiltration

let part (width B1 = 15.0 m) than the wider sec- quently, towards the end of the measuring peri- assumed that the changeability of potential air temperature, which then caused thawing The regime of the water table in the res- reservoir on the groundwater table regime

tion (B2 = 19.0 m). The length of the reservoir od, it was measured three times a week. evaporation and the depth of precipitation and meltwater influx. The maximum influx ervoir depends on the supply of rainwater is presented in Figure 3a and 3b. The terrain along the side of Złocieniowa St. is 78.8 m, Precipitation data were obtained from have the same origin. To confirm these assump- to the reservoir was recorded on 19/04/2004, and the extent of infiltration. Swelling was topography impacts the level of the ground- and at the side of the railway embankment, the meteorological station in the village tions, a statistical homogeneity test was per- with a value of 0.78 m (Table 3, Fig. 2a). caused by thawing run-off during the spring water table, which was measured by piezom- it is 82.5 m. The reservoir bank slope is 1:1.5, of Koźmice Wielkie near Wieliczka, taken formed for each independent and dependent A significant rise of the groundwater table, period from March 3 to April 19, 2004, eter 1, making it higher than the level mea- and the reservoir inlet has a slope of 1:3; its from January 2003 to November 2004. To ob- variable. The analysis was performed by means recorded on piezometer 2, also had an influ- and during extreme rainfall events during sum- sured in the reservoir (Fig. 3a). This proves average depth is 1.50 m, and the bottom slope tain the full characteristics of the precipitation of a Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test. In this test, ence on the water depth (Fig. 2b). mer from July 26 to August 9, 2004. The am- that during the entire experimental period, is 2% in the direction from the inlet towards near the examined reservoir, a Hellmann rain the elements of samples originating from one The spring-summer period was character- plitude of the water depth in the reservoir groundwater infiltrated into the reservoir. the reservoir. gauge was installed on June 2, 2004. The depth general population are given ranks; the sum ized by a gradual, even decrease in reservoir was 0.64 m(0.78 – 0.14 = 0.64 m; Table 3). The opposite situation occurred below the res- To discourage trespassing, the reservoir was of the precipitation was read from this gauge of ranks is then determined, and the importance water depth until it reached its minimum val- The average water depth in the reservoir ervoir (Fig. 3b). Because for most of the ex- fenced. Two piezometers, which were installed as the sum of precipitation in the periods be- of the differences of these sums is checked by a χ2 ue of 0.305 m on 26/07/2004. This decrease during the experimental period was 0.385 m. perimental period, the level of the water table at a depth of 1 m below the level of the groundwa- tween consecutive readings of water depth test. The list of the results of statistical homo- resulted from the gradual reduction of rain- After the period of water level increase in the reservoir was higher than the ground- ter table (the ordinate of the bottom of the piezom- in the examined reservoir. To obtain the val- geneity of variables for which the analysis was fall. In this period, the sum of precipitation, from the end of March until July 26, 2004, water level, water infiltrated from the reservoir eter is 197.50 m above sea level, and the level of fil- ues of the precipitation depth from the period performed is shown in Table 2. The performed calculated for the period between the consec- the groundwater table fell to a value of to the groundwater system. ter is about 1 m) are used to monitor the quality prior to the Hellmann rain gauge installation, calculations show that in the case of the wa- utive readings of water depth in the reservoir, 3.03 m below ground level. This was During the entire experimental peri- of the stored unleached rainwater, the fluctuation a regression equation was calculated, which de- ter depth in the reservoir and the conditions exceeded 20 mm by six times. The decrease a period of sparser precipitation and intense od, groundwater reached the reservoir only of the groundwater table, and the purity of ground- scribes the depth of the precipitation at the me- of the groundwater table, the obtained data are in water depth in the reservoir is connected ground evaporation, leading to a decrease in two cases, on March 24 and 30, 2004. water in the immediate vicinity of the reservoir. teorological station as a function of the depth statistically heterogenous. These results confirm with the increase in the level of the groundwater in the groundwater table. This decrease was During these times, the groundwater level de- of the precipitation from Koźmice: that various, changeable-over-time factors affect table, and consequently, the hydraulic gradi- also caused by a reduced supply of water infil- creased more rapidly because of water infiltra- 3. RESEARCH the course of these phenomena. ent and the efficiency of the infiltration water trating from the reservoir to the groundwater tion from thawing and rainfall than the reser- METHODOLOGY Chełmicki (1991), in tests on the regime stream connected with it increased. Another table. It is worth noting that the groundwa- voir water level increased. The slower increase P = 0.726 · P + 1.322 (1) As water runoff from the examined reservoir takes Bieżanów Koźmice of the shallow groundwater table in Poland, significant increase in reservoir water depth was ter table rose again in the period from July 26 of the water level in the reservoir was place during infiltration to the ground, it was as- shows that about 35% of measuring stations caused by the 3-day record amount of precipita- to August 2, reaching a value of 2.295 m below the result of the slower surface run-off from sumed that the water depth regime in the reservoir The obtained correlation coefficient of the value lack statistical homogeneity. The significantly tion from July 28 to 30, 2004, reaching a value ground level. This increase was caused by ex- the basin into the reduction chambers and in- is determined by the groundwater table level. One of 0.616 was statistically significant at the level of ascending trend of the water table was, most of 64 mm and resulting in an intense run-off treme rainfall events in this period, with a total let channel. It must also be stressed that, be-

of the main functions of the analyzed structure α = 0.01 (robl = 0.616 > rkr (55;0.01) = 0.339). likely, caused by the lack of data homogeneity. feeding of the reservoir, causing a water depth rain amount of 87.1 mm, accounting for more cause the ground layer of the reservoir has Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The influences of meteorological and hydrological factors on the operation and performance of a semi-natural stormwater reservoir Volume 8 | Issue 1 Andrzej Wałęga, Dariusz Młyński, Artur Radecki-Pawlik

a thickness of around 0.50 m and a poor spectively, with mean temperatures of 23 of the filtration of meltwater to the ground. permeability (silty clay loams), the levels and 19.1°C, resulting in evaporation values Our analysis showed a statistically significant of the reservoir and the groundwater are relat- of 48.3 and 35.5 mm, respectively. The evap- relationship between the depth of the water ed. When the level of the groundwater table oration level was 77% of the precipitation lev- in the reservoir and the sum of the precipita- is close to the reservoir bed, there is a direct el in August and 66% of that in September. tion from the week before the measurement relationship between them, and the ground- By comparison, evaporation was only 37.5% of reservoir filling. The calculated correla- water is in direct hydraulic contact with of the depth of precipitation in July. tion coefficient had a value of 0.42 and was the water in the reservoir; the reservoir The vital issue for a designer or user statistically valid at the level of α = 0.05. is then fed with groundwater. When the level of a seminatural structure is the ability to fore- This significant relationship is caused Fig. 2a. Water depth in the storage and infiltration reservoir in the urban of the groundwater table is below the reser- cast its functioning, particularly with regard by the previously described delayed reac- and industrial area of Kraków in the experimental period voir bed, these relationships are not direct. to its filling. To identify factors that affect tion of the reservoir to the surface run-off. The water in the reservoir does not have di- the depth in the examined reservoir, linear When precipitation increases, especially rect contact with the groundwater, and evap- correlation analysis was used. For the weekly during excessive rainfall events, the filling oration from the water surface, evapotrans- mean depth of the groundwater table mea- of the reservoir increases as a consequence piration, and precipitation become the more sured using piezometer 2, the independent of the higher intensity of inflow than run-off significant factors. variables were the sum of precipitation from via infiltration and evaporation. Throughout the entire experimental pe- the week before and the weekly sum of poten- A similar situation to that described above riod from September 13, 2003, to Novem- tial evaporation. occurs when there is a correlation between ber 20, 2004, the sum of precipitation was In the performed analysis, the value of pre- the water depth in the reservoir and the level 772 mm. Precipitation characteristics cipitation and the value of depth read from of potential evaporation. The values of poten- of this period were determined on the basis the water stage rod 1 week before were tak- tial evaporation, which were used in the cal- Fig. 3. Relationship between reservoir water level and groundwater table of the classification by Kaczorowska (1962). en into account because of the delayed re- culations, were obtained from the period from Fig. 2b. Levels of groundwater table in piezometer 2 in the storage and infiltra- level at piezometer 1 (a) and piezometer 2 (b); the horizontal line repre- The depth of normal precipitation in the peri- action of the reservoir to the precipitation the end of May to the end of November. tion reservoir in the urban and industrial area of Kraków sents the situation when the ordinates of the water table in the reservoir od from 1850 to 1997, measured by the weath- which resulted from the diverse influence The level of evaporation increased, conse- are equal to the ordinates of the groundwater table er station at the Botanical Garden of Jagi- of physiographic parameters, especially quently causing a decrease of the water depth ellonian University in Krakow, was 672 mm the shape and the slope of the basin, the use in the reservoir, especially in the period from

32 (Twardosz 1999). Taking into account and the characteristics of precipitation, its June to August with high air temperatures. 33 this measurement, the analyzed period intensity, its depth, and its duration [Ban- However, the calculated correlation coeffi- in the Krakow-Bieżanów region can be regard- asik, Barszcz 2000]. The reduction chambers cient (0.5) between the water depth in the res- ed as being wet (with the precipitation sum holding the first waves of the run-off also have ervoir and the weekly sum of evaporation being 12.9% higher than the normal precipi- an effect on the abovementioned delay. seems to contradict the previous statement, tation). Twardosz also writes that in the period Based on the analysis of the calculations most likely because the highest levels of evap- from 1850 to 1997, there were 26 wet years. of the correlation between the dependent vari- oration occurred in the period of the most Potential evaporation fluctuated signifi- able (reservoir water depth) and the other in- intense precipitation in the summer months. cantly (Fig. 2d), partly because of the dif- dependent variables (Table 4), these depths are Thus, the higher rainfall increased the res- ferent time spans between successive read- mostly connected with the levels of the ground- ervoir water depth, which did not decrease ings. The maximum sum of evaporation water table. The calculated correlation coeffi- afterwards due to a relatively small surface Fig. 2c. Depth of precipitation in the test period in the immediate vicinity Fig. 4. Monthly sums of potential evaporation and depth of precipita- in the experimental period was 8.1 mm, re- cient of the value of r = –0.95 is statistically and a smaller thermal potential, despite in- of the storage and infiltration reservoir in the urban and industrial area tion against the mean monthly air temperature values in close vicinity corded from June 23 to 27, 2004. The highest significant at the level α = 0.01 for N = 25 tense evaporation. of Kraków reservoir of the reservoir value of evaporation was 0.06 mm, recorded (r = –0.95 > 0.487). Such a strong rela- from July 28 to 30, 2004. (Table 3). Mean tionship can be explained by the decrease 5. CONCLUSIONS evaporation throughout the experimental pe- of the hydraulic gradient with increasing Our results led to the following conclusions: Table 4. Matrix of correlation coefficients for the analyzed variables riod was 3.81 mm, with an evaporation sum groundwater table levels, leading to a de- 1. The lowest water level was observed

Parameter Hres Hgwt ΣPi-1 ΣEp of 229.2 mm. creased filtration efficiency. As a consequence, in the autumn and winter period as a conse- H 1.000 –0.950 0.420 0.510 res In the entire experimental period, the supply the run-off by means of the infiltration from quence of a lack of rainfall and a lack of snow H –0.950 1.000 –0.410 –0.450 gwt of water from precipitation was higher than wa- the reservoir decreases. This may be the re- and ice thawing. The increase of the wa- ΣP 0.420 –0.410 1.000 0.190 i-1 ter loss from evaporation. This was most obvi- sult of the difficulties of water from excessive ter table level in the reservoir is connected ΣEp 0.460 –0.450 0.190 1.000 ous in July and October, which had the highest rainfall filtering through the ground, which with the increase of the groundwater level Hres – water depth in the reservoir; hgwt – level of groundwater table at piezometer 2; ΣPi-1 – sum of precipitation from the week before the measurement of water depth in the reservoir; E – Σ p values of precipitation sum (Fig. 4). In July, is already saturated with water, and the base and it is observed in the spring and summer weekly sum of potential evaporation the sum of precipitation was 132.4 mm, while of the reservoir is sealed. For this reason, most periods, when there is a high supply of melt- water loss through evaporation was 49.6 mm. of the rainfall water runs into the reservoir, water and stormwater. The average water level Fig. 2d. Level of the potential evaporation in the examined period In months with relatively high values of air thus filling it up. In the case of smaller val- in the reservoir was 0.385 m, with an ampli- in the vicinity of the storage and infiltration reservoir in the urban temperature and lower values of precipitation, ues of precipitation sum in autumn-winter tude of 0.64 m. and industrial area of Kraków; the solid line represents the consecutive the proportions of these two parameters were and early spring, the reservoir is supplied 2. In the period from the beginning of Febru- mean of three consecutive values more equal. Such a situation occurred in Au- with water coming mainly from thaw- ary to the end of March, the groundwater gust and September; the sum of precipitation ing. This causes the filling of the reservoir table increases as a consequence of thawing, in these months was 62.6 and 53.8 mm, re- and the rise of the groundwater table as a result and the groundwater system is fed by filtrating Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Volume 8 | Issue 1

meltwater. A secondary increase in the ground- • Banasik K., Barszcz M., 2000, Czas opóźnienia od charakterystyk zbiornika wodnego, Prace water table level can be observed at the end odpływu wezbraniowego z małej zlewni rol- IMGW, 10, 5-73 of July, caused by excessive rainfall events. niczej, Przegląd Naukowy Wydziału Inżynierii • Kaczorowska Z., 1962, Opady w Polsce w prze- 3. Throughout the entire experimental period, i Kształtowania Środowiska, 19, 15-24 kroju wieloletnim, Prace Geograficzne, 33, 112 pp. the reservoir was fed by infiltering groundwa- • Boancă P., Dumitraş A., Luca L., Bors- • Krzanowski S., Radecki-Pawlik A., 1998, Stu- ter from the area of the basin located above Oprişa S., Laczi E., 2018, Analysing bio- dium nad zagospodarowaniem wód opad- the reservoir. However, the reverse situa- retention hydraulics and runoff reten- owych z deszczy nawalnych w rejonie wiaduk- tion took place in the section located below tion through numerical modelling using tu kolejowego na ciągu ulicy Półłanki w Kra- the reservoir. For most of the experimental RECARGA: a case study in a Romanian ur- kowie-Bieżanowie, Kraków, typescript period, the water infiltered from the reser- ban area, Polish Journal of Environmental • Li X., Fang X., Gong Y., Li J., Wang J., Chen G., voir, and the groundwater level increased. Studies, 27 (5), 1965-1973, DOI: 10.15244/ Li M.-H., 2018, Evaluating the road-bioreten- The exception is the period from the end pjoes/79271 tion strip system from a hydraulic perspective of March, when groundwater infiltrated into • Breitschneider H., Lecher K., Schmidt M., 1993, – case studies, Water, 10 (12), 1778-1803, DOI: the reservoir as a result of the increased feeding Taschenbuch der Wasserwirtschaft, Verlag 10.3390/w10121778 of the water-bearing stratum with meltwater Paul Parey, Hamburg, 1022 pp. • O’Driscoll M., Clinton S., Jefferson A., Manda and significant rainfall, with an almost empty • Burszta-Adamiak E., Licznar P., Zaleski J., A., McMillan S., 2010, Urbanization effects reservoir after the autumn and winter periods. 2019, Criteria for identifying maximum rain- on watershed hydrology and in-stream pro- 4. The weekly water depth averages in the reser- fall determined by the peaks-over-threshold cesses in the Southern United States, Water, voir are closely correlated with all variables an- (POT) method under the Polish Atlas of Rain- 2 (3), 605-648, DOI: 10.3390/w2030605 alyzed here, namely average levels of ground- fall Intensities (PANDa) project, Meteorology • Ozga-Zielińska M., Brzeziński J., 1997, Hydrolo- water table below the reservoir in the given Hydrology and Water Management, 7 (1), 3-13, gia stosowana, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, week, sum of precipitation from the week DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/93595 Warszawa, 323 pp. prior to the date of the examination of water • Byczkowski A., 1997, Wpływ urbanizacji na • Ozga-Zieliński B., 1987, Badanie statystycznej depth in the reservoir, sum of potential evap- reżim hydrologiczny małych cieków nizinnych, niejednorodności ciągów pomiarowych, Gos- oration in the given week. However, the wa- [in:] Przyrodnicze i techniczne problemy podarka Wodna, 10, 226-228 ter depth in the reservoir is most significantly ochrony i kształtowania środowiska rolnicze- • Stachy J. (ed.), 1988, Atlas hydrologiczny Pol- go, Wydawnictwo Akademii Rolniczej im. A. ski, IMGW, Warszawa 34 connected with the level of the groundwater table. Meteorological factors, such as the sum Cieszkowskiego, Poznań, 15-22 • Tan P.Y., Abdul Hamid A.R., 2014, Urban eco- of precipitation and evaporation, have an in- • Chełmicki W., 1991, Reżim płytkich wód logical research in Singapore and its rele- fluence on the statistically valid relationship podziemnych w Polsce, Uniwersytet Jagiel- vance to the advancement of urban ecology between the weekly water depth averages loński, Kraków, 136 pp. and sustainability, Landscape and Urban in the reservoir and the corresponding levels • Dong R., Zhang X., Li H., 2019, Constructing Planning, 125, 271-289, DOI: 10.1016/j.landurb- of the groundwater table. Because the experi- the ecological security pattern for sponge plan.2014.01.019 ments were performed within a relatively short city: a case study in Zhengzhou, China, Water, • Twardosz R., 1999, Precipitation variability time, with high sums of annual precipitation, 11 (2), 284-301, DOI: 10.3390/w11020284 and tendency in Kraków for the period 1850- the results are valid only for wet years. For dry • Fletcher T.D., Shuster W., Hunt W.F., Ashley R., 1997 related to circulation patterns, Acta Geo- or normal years, the relationships between Butler D., Arthur S., Trowsdale S., Barraud S., physica Polonica, 47 (1), 111-133 water level in reservoir, sum of precipitation Semadeni-Daves A., Bertrand-Krajewski J.-L., • Wałęga A., Cebulska M., Gądek W., 2018, and evaporation, and groundwater levels may Mikkelsen P.S., Rivard G., Uhl M., Dageanis D., The use of bioretention cell to decreasing be slightly different. For example, for example Viklander M., 2015, DUS, LID, BMPs, WSUD outflow from parking lot, Journal of Water for normal and dry years, infiltration water and more – The evolution and application and Land Development, 36 (1-3), 173-181, DOI: from the reservoir may be dominant in both of terminology surrounding urban drainage, 10.2478/jwld-2018-0017 piezometers. Urban Water Journal, 12 (7), 525-542, DOI: • Wałęga A., Kaczor G., Stęplewski B., 2016, 5. Knowledge of all factors affecting the perfor- 10.1080/1573062X.2014.916314 The role of local precipitation models in design- mance of semi-natural rainwater purification • Gutry-Korycka M., Ciepielowski A., 1993, Natu- ing rainwater drainage systems in urban areas: plants will help to forecast their operation ralne i antropogeniczne zmiany obiegu wody, a case study in Krakow, Poland, Polish Journal under various meteorological and hydro- [in:] Przemiany stosunków wodnych w Polsce of Environmental Studies, 25 (5), 2139-2149, geological conditions, thereby supporting w wyniku procesów naturalnych i antropo- DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/62961 the determination of their impacts on adja- genicznych, I. Dynowska (ed.), Uniwersytet • Wałęga A., Wachulec K., 2018, Effect cent areas. Jagielloński, Kraków, 271-389 of a retention basin on removing pollutants • Jaworski J., 1997., Parowanie terenowe, [in:] Hy- from stormwater: a case study in Poland, Pol- REFERENCES drologia dynamiczna, U. Soczyńska (ed.), Wy- ish Journal of Environmental Studies, 27 (4), • Bac S., Rojek M., 1979, Meteorologia i klima- dawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa, 139-184 1795-1803, DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/76797 tologia, Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe, • Jurak D., 1976, Intensywność parowa-

Warszawa, 250 pp. nia z powierzchni wody w zależności Nelson on Unsplash Jordan by Photo Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Flow descriptors for parametric hydrographs accounting for afforestation of the catchment Volume 8 | Issue 1 Beata Baziak, Wiesław Gądek, Marek Bodziony, Tamara Tokarczyk

1. INTRODUCTION • the shape parameter of the hydrograph n and lake dampening, urbanisation pressure

Parametric hydrographs are used in water and the time to peak tp of the gamma distri- on the outflow, etc. and wastewater management and spatial plan- bution function. ning, as well as in aquatic and hydraulic engineer- In Poland, the methods employed to date ing, in cases where variation of the flow in a wa- An innovative feature of this method use hypothetical waves, determined based tercourse plays an important role in the design is the ability to determine parametric flow hydro- on what are known as typical hydrographs, or computational process (O’Connor et al. graphs for any river cross-section based on equa- for example, with the highest record- 2014). Flow hydrographs describe the theoretical tions constructed using the above parameters. ed flow or the highest values of, say, six course of a surge, using such parameters as max- The proposed method is analysed or eight surges in a selected period. These imum flow, time to peak, and surge duration. in the catchment of the Raba River, where methods include Reitz and Kreps (1945), Hydrographs of this type are also used in as- nine gauging stations are situated. For the data Warsaw University of Technology (Gądek Flow descriptors for parametric sessing the impact of urbanised areas on flood from these stations, an assessment is made et al. 2016), Hydroprojekt (Gądek, Środula risk, or the impact of afforestation in amelio- of the agreement between the parametric flow 2014) and Cracow (Gądek, Tokarczyk 2015; rating the effects of floods. The method is used hydrographs and nonparametric hydrographs Gądek et al. 2016). They also include Strup- hydrographs accounting in relation to both existing land use and planned obtained by Archer’s method. czewski’s analytic wave (Ciepielowski 1987, developments in river catchment areas. Hy- 2001; Strupczewski et al. 2013; Gądek et al. for afforestation drographs are also used in planning the capac- 2. MATERIALS 2017b). ity of storage reservoirs, one of the purposes AND METHODS The parametric design hydrographs pro- of which is to reduce the effects of floods and wa- The proposed method of determining a para- posed in design hydrology can be determined of the catchment ter shortages at times of drought (Mioduszewski metric design hydrograph using physical catch- in any desired river cross-sections irrespec- 2012, 2014). ment descriptors (PCDs) is based on design hy- tive of catchment size, thanks to a method Beata BAZIAK, Wiesław GĄDEK, Marek BODZIONY The history of the use of flow hydrographs drology. This term, used in European countries developed by Archer. This method entails Cracow University of Technology, Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Warszawska 24, 31-155 Kraków, Poland, goes back to the 1930s. It is generally consid- and in the United States, denotes a form of hy- the determination of nonparametric hydro- e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] ered that the theory of isochrones developed drology distinct from the existing engineering hy- graphs – that is, a median of flow hydro- by Dubelir, Boldakov, and Čerkašin initiated drology in that it combines the computational graphs – and their use to determine flow du- Tamara TOKARCZYK Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute; Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa, Poland, the development of hydrographs of this type methods recommended in engineering hydrology ration descriptors with probabilities of being e-mail: [email protected] 36 for practical engineering purposes. That theory with dynamic (process) hydrology, and makes use exceeded ranging from 95% to 5% in steps 37 DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/111033 is based on a generic equation of a flood crest. of data acquisition, data processing, and presenta- of 5%. The value of the 98% flow dura- Until the mid-1960s this equation was solved tion of results in a GIS. The technique has been tion descriptor is also determined (Archer with the use of simplifications, which produced developed for such purposes as the management et al. 2000). A nonparametric hydrograph has hydrographs of trapezoidal or triangular shape of water resources, the designation of zones endan- an independent rising limb and an indepen- (Strupczewski 1964; Strupczewski et al. 2013). gered by or at risk of flood, assessment of the im- dent recession limb (Fig. 1). Flows are pre- The first analytical description of a hydro- pact of urbanised areas on flood risk and drought, sented in the form of percentage contribution graph was provided by the functions proposed and determination of the effects of climate change in a range from 0% to 100%, where 100% by Reitz and Kreps (Reitz, Kreps 1945; Gądek, on water resources. denotes the maximum value. The horizontal Środula 2014). In that method, the rising limb A principle of design hydrology is the use axis is the duration of particular values of per- of the hydrograph of the Reitz-Kreps equation of universal computational methods over large centage contributions together with higher is a squared sine function, and the recession areas, which means that at every level of man- values. The time is given as negative values for limb is an exponential function. The method agement it is possible to perform various types the rising limb of the hydrograph, and pos- is still in use today. of hydrological analyses, in view of the simplic- itive values for the recession limb. At time An important date is 1957, when Nash’s cas- ity of using system and the lack of ambiguity t = 0 the maximum percentage contribution ABSTRACT. Parametric flow hydrographs are used for design and management purposes in such fields as water management and aquatic engineering. They cade model was introduced for what is called in the computed hydrological characteristics. (q = 100%) occurs. For particular values describe a theoretical hydrograph based on such parameters as maximum flow, time to peak, and surge duration. They are used to forecast flood risk the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) The parameters used in the computational of percentage contributions of flows, the time and to evaluate the impact of land use on the run-off hydrograph. In Western Europe for many years methods have been used in which parametric hydrographs (Nash 1957). In many countries, the gamma formulae are called physical catchment descrip- is determined in the form of a median, sepa- are determined based on physical catchment descriptors (PCDs), which are divided into three groups describing the physical features of a catchment. These density function used by Nash in that model has tors (PCDs). These can be divided into three rately for the rising limb and for the recession descriptors are used to derive formulae enabling the determination of parametric flow hydrographs for any computational cross-section. In this work, such become the basis for the description of an ana- groups: limb (O’Connor, Goswami 2009; O’Connor formulae are derived for the catchment of the Raba River, using the principles of design hydrology applied in Western European countries. The parametric lytical hydrograph, known as a parametric de- • fixed: related to the topography, orography, et al. 2014; Gądek et al. 2017a, b). Such hydrograph is described using Baptista’s gamma density function. The input hydrograph was a nonparametric flow hydrograph determined by Archer’s sign hydrograph. and hydrography of the catchment, includ- a nonparametric hydrograph ought to be method. For nine gauging stations located in the Raba catchment, physical catchment descriptors were obtained for two 30-year periods: 1961-1990 and 1983- In this work we propose the introduction ing, e.g., the area of the catchment, the den- determined based on a 30-year series of flow 2012. Based on the nonparametric flow hydrograph and the PCDs, two groups of formulae were derived to describe the parametric hydrograph. Analysis in Poland of new principles for the construction sity of the river network, gradient of the river, data used in the process of computing maxi- of agreement between the computed parametric flow hydrographs and the input hydrograph indicated a high quality of fit. It should be noted that the formulae of empirical formulae, as used in Western Eu- etc.; mum flows with a given probability of being and analysis presented here refer only to the Raba catchment. However, the results confirm the possibility of applying these methods to the determination ropean countries, among others, for design hy- • variable: representing the spatial develop- exceeded. of parametric flow hydrographs for any river cross-section. drology. These formulae enable the determina- ment of the basin, e.g., forest cover, urban- In the case of hypothetical waves, hydro- tion of parametric flow hydrographs based on: isation, length of watercourses subjected graphs were determined based on time cri- KEYWORDS: hysical catchment descriptors, gamma density function, parametric flow hydrograph, Archer’s method, skewness coefficient, hydrograph width. • the hydrograph width (hours) at 50% to anthropogenic pressure, etc.; teria, while in the case of nonparametric Ar- and 75% of peak flow (W50 and W75) • process-related: e.g., moisture content cher hydrographs, time is determined based SUBMITTED: 11 July 2018 | REVISED: 20 December 2018 | ACCEPTED: 22 July 2019 and the hydrograph skewness coefficient s; of the catchment, surface retention, channel on unified flow. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Flow descriptors for parametric hydrographs accounting for afforestation of the catchment Volume 8 | Issue 1 Beata Baziak, Wiesław Gądek, Marek Bodziony, Tamara Tokarczyk

For the description of a parametric de- sign hydrograph the gamma density function is used, based on: • the single shape parameter m (O’Connor et al. 2014; Strupczewski 1964; Strupczewski et al. 2013); • the single shape parameter n (Baptista 1990; Baptista, Michel 1990); • or the two shape parameters m and n (Strup- czewski 1964; Strupczewski et al. 2013; Gądek et al. 2017b).

The basic formula for the gamma density func- tion with two wave shape parameters has the form:

(1) Fig. 1. Example nonparametric design hydrograph obtained by Archer’s method

Table 1. Physiographic parameters of the Raba catchment according to the Polish Hydrographic where: qt is the percentage of peak flow at time Division (IMGW 1980a) t [%]; tp is the time to peak [h]; t is the time from the beginning of the rising limb [h]; m, n Parameter Value are unitless shape parameters. Catchment area 1,537.1 km2 A function proposed by Baptista is similar Main river length 131.9 km River slope 4.47 m/km in form, derived based on a hydrological model Drainage density 2.16 km∙km-2 of transformation in the channel of the Musking- River source elevation 780 m a.s.l. um River: Final confluence elevation 190 m a.s.l.

38 39 Table 2. Land cover types of the Raba catchment according to CORINE Land Cover (2) Area [%] Fig. 2. Gauging stations in the Raba catchment Cover types 1990 2012 As a result of our analyses, the single-pa- Discontinuous urban fabric 1.62 5.71 Industrial or commercial units 0.11 0.20 rameter distribution proposed by Baptista was Mineral extraction sites 0.02 0.06 selected. Green urban areas 0.05 0.02 Sport and leisure facilities - 0.05 2.1. STUDY AREA Non-irrigated arable land 30.19 31.91 The study area was the catchment Fruit trees and berry plantations 0.53 1.35 Pastures 2.62 2.74 of the Raba River, which flows through Complex cultivation patterns 15.71 9.17 three hydrological regions. The largest Land principally occupied by agriculture, with significant areas of natural vegetation 16.21 12.57 part of the catchment lies in the moun- Broad-leaved forest 4.37 4.45 tainous Carpathian zone. The average ele- Coniferous forest 16.96 17.99 vation in the catchment is approximately Mixed forest 10.81 11.98 Transitional woodland – shrub 0.09 1.05 500 metres above sea level; the highest Water bodies 0.70 0.76 point is Mount Turbacz (1,310 m a.s.l.) and the lowest is the river’s confluence with the Vistula at 180 m a.s.l. The river may be ure 2 shows the subcatchments for the gauged 2.2. ANALYTICAL divided into three sections: cross-sections for which computations were METHODOLOGY • the upper section, in the Beskid Mountains, performed. The Raba catchment was chosen 2.2.1. PHYSICAL CATCHMENT 60 km long, with average slope 0.85%; for study because of the dominance of forests DESCRIPTORS • the middle section, in the foothill region, 34 in its upper part. The distribution of forests To construct empirical formulae enabling km long with average slope 0.23%; according to the CORINE Land Cover sys- the determination of parametric flow hydro- • the lower section, in the Sandomierz Basin, tem, from the years 1990 and 2012 (CLC1990, graphs, physical catchment descriptors from 43 km long with average slope 0.06%. CLC20121), is shown in Figure 3. the three groups were used: the fixed descriptors Physical catchment descriptors for the Raba ADO, GSR, S1085; the variable descriptor LAS Fig. 3. Land cover of the Raba catchment according to CORINE Land Cover: a) 1990; b) 2012 Within the catchment there are nine gauging catchment were determined at nine gauging (Bayliss 1999); and the process-related descrip- stations and a barrier reservoir in Dobczyce. Fig- stations. tors GLEMOK, JEZ.

1 https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Flow descriptors for parametric hydrographs accounting for afforestation of the catchment Volume 8 | Issue 1 Beata Baziak, Wiesław Gądek, Marek Bodziony, Tamara Tokarczyk

and the soil types occurring in the catchment. Table 3. Physical catchment descriptors (PCDs) for gauging stations in the Raba catchment This balance is calculated for the period from 1 April to A GSR S1085 ADO JEZ LAS GLEMOK River/gauging station 31 October of each year – that is, for the grow- km2 km km-2 m km-1 1990 2012 1990 2012 ing season. It is assumed that on 1 April the soil Raba – Rabka 91.7 2.61 8.99 0.58 1.00 0.39 0.45 0.62 0.63 Raba – Mszana Dolna 157.1 2.55 8.59 0.64 1.00 0.38 0.43 0.59 0.58 is fully saturated. The boundary between wet Raba – Kasinka Mała 352.9 2.38 7.51 0.81 1.00 0.42 0.43 0.59 0.54 and dry soil was determined based on the weight- Raba – Stróża 643.1 2.15 6.24 0.86 1.00 0.45 0.49 0.55 0.52 ed average of the areas covered by particular soil Raba – Proszówki 1,470.4 2.00 3.53 0.85 0.95 0.32* 0.35 0.53* 0.50 types and the pF curves (Driessen, Konijn 1992) Mszanka – Mszana Dolna 151.4 2.37 16.00 0.31 1.00 0.46 0.47 0.54 0.50 * * for each soil type. The GLEMOK descriptor Lubieńka – Lubień 47.8 2.16 7.73 0.55 1.00 0.44 0.49 0.52 0.50 Krzczonówka – Krzczonów 87.3 1.86 13.82 0.64 1.00 0.48 0.55 0.46 0.44 was computed in 1990 for the computation Stradomka – Stradomka 362.5 1.99 4.67 0.80 1.00 0.25 0.26 0.41 0.39 period 1961-1990 and in 2012 for the period * Data not used for optimisation due to incompleteness of the (30-year) series of measurement data in the analysed period 1983-2012. The JEZ descriptor, describing the process of flood attenuation by reservoirs and lakes, Table 4. Hydrograph width W50, W75, and skewness coefficient s and their relative errors at gauged cross-sections is modelled on the FARL descriptor (Bayliss W50 W75 s RE RE RE No River/gauging station W50 W75 s 1999). It is computed from the formula: 1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012 Fig. 4. Example parametric design hydrograph 1 Raba – Rabka 34.9 32.7 15.8 14.5 0.4 0.4 2.6 8.2 15.2 0.4 1.8 11.6 (7) 2 Raba – Mszana Dolna 35.1 32.5 9.4 13 0.5 0.4 6.4 1.6 35.3 0.6 7.8 9.6 3 Raba – Kasinka Mała 36.8 31.6 16.2 13.7 0.4 0.5 7.1 2.1 14.1 6.2 1.5 3.3 The ADO descriptor represents the propor- where: W85 is the elevation of the river 4 Raba – Stróża 33.9 33.2 16.2 14.5 0.4 0.4 4 3.3 5.1 14.2 4 2.1 tion of the area drained directly by tributaries, at a cross-section located at a distance of 85% where: 5 Raba – Proszówki 42.6 18.7 0.4 0.8* 0.5* 1.2* modelled on the ARTDRAIN descriptor (Bay- of the river length above the computation- 6 Mszanka – Mszana Dolna 31.2 26.8 13.8 11.5 0.5 0.5 3.2 7.3 1 10.8 10.2 2.4 liss 1999), and given by the formula: al cross-section [km]; W10 is the elevation 7 Lubieńka – Lubień 33.6 17.5 0.4 1.1 2.2 11.8 8 Krzczonówka – Krzczonów 29.7 27.5 14.9 13.3 0.5 0.5 4.1 2.4 6.6 5.6 2.8 0.9 of the river at a cross-section located at a distance 9 Stradomka – Stradomka 28.4 26.3 14.4 13.3 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.8 5.6 3.8 1.9 0.8 of 10% of the river length above the computa- * the error value is affected by the JEZ descriptor, which was not considered in the optimisation due to the absence of impact of the reservoir on eight of the nine gauging stations (3) 2 tional cross-section [km]; L1085 is the length AJEZ is the area of the reservoir/lake [km ]; of the main river excluding sections of 10% of its a is the catchment area up to the cross-section 2 40 where: Ael is the area of a subcatchment (over length above the computational cross-section closed by a dam or hydraulic structure [km ]; mination was made of the values of hydro- 3. RESULTS s, obtained from the nonparametric flow hydro- 41 2.5 km2) [km2]; A is the area of the catchment and 15% of its length from the source [km]. A is the catchment area up to the gauging graph width at 50% (W50) and 75% (W75) Table 3 gives the values of the descriptors graph obtained by Archer’s method; upstream from the gauging station [km2]. This slope is used in place of the average station [km2]. of peak flow. These descriptors were select- (PCDs) obtained for the gauging stations 2. the hydrograph widths W50, W75 The GSR descriptor represents the drainage slope computed by the Taylor-Schwartz method The descriptors (PCDs) listed above were ed based on experience gained by scientists in the catchment of the Raba River. and the skewness coefficient s computed density, and is modelled on the DRAIND de- (Bayliss 1999). determined using digital and analogue data ob- working on design hydrology in Ireland The Proszówki station was not consid- from formulae (9), (10) and (11);

scriptor (Bayliss 1999) according to the formula: The LAS descriptor, representing the degree tained from: (O’Connor et al. 2014). An additional pa- ered in the construction of formulae describ- 3. the parameters n and tp of Baptista’s gamma of afforestation of the catchment, modelled • the Polish Hydrographic Division map (mphp)2; rameter describing the parametric flow ing the parametric flow hydrograph, because density function computed from formulae on the FOREST descriptor (Bayliss 1999), • CORINE Land Cover (CLC1990, hydrograph is the skewness coefficient s. of the flood attenuation provided by the reser- (12) and (13). (4) is computed from the formula: CLC2012); Baptista’s gamma density function requires voir in Dobczyce. • the numerical terrain model (NMT)3; computation of the shape parameter n and Based on the determined PCDs, formulae 4. ANALYSIS where: L is the length of a watercourse for • the Polish hydrographic division atlas (distri- the time to peak t (Fig. 4). were constructed to enable the computation AND DISCUSSION (6) p which the catchment area exceeds 2.5 km2 bution of soils) (IMGW 1980a, b); To construct empirical formulae describing of any parametric design hydrograph: Formulae (9), (10) and (11) are basic equations for [km]; A is the catchment area upstream from • the Polish hydrological atlas (indi- the parametric flow hydrograph, an optimis- determining parametric flow hydrographs at any 2 the gauging station [km ]. where: ALAS is the area of forest according to CO- ces of spatial distribution of precipita- ation process was used, taking as the target (9) river cross-section. Their accuracy was assessed The S1085 descriptor, representing the slope RINE Land Cover [km2]; A is the area of the catch- tion and values of terrain evaporation) function the minimum deviation of the sum by comparing hydrographs determined from 2 of the main river (Bayliss 1999), is computed ment up to the gauging station [km ]. (IMGW 1988a, b); of squares between the given and computed (10) values of W50, W75, and s from the nonpara- based on the drop in elevation of the river be- The LAS descriptor was computed in 1990 for • weather data, including precipitation for values, according to the general formula: metric Archer hydrograph, with the hydrographs tween the theoretical source and the theoretical the computation period 1961-1990 and in 2012 the years 1983-2006, from the Stróża sta- (11) computed using formulae (9), (10) and (11) computational cross-section, and the length for the computation period 1983-2012. tion maintained by the Hydrology Group or formulae (12) and (13) for eight gauging sta- (8) of the river between them. The theoretical com- The GLEMOK descriptor represents of the Institute of Aquatic Engineer- For Baptista’s gamma density function, selected tions on the Raba River. Table 4 gives the values putational cross-section is located at a distance the time during which the soil is wet. It is based ing and Water Management at Tadeusz for description of the parametric design hydro- of the relative error (RE) for hydrographs com- of 10% of the river length above the compu- on the PROPWET descriptor developed in the UK Kościuszko University of Technology, and for where: k is the number of gauging stations used graph, the following formulae were obtained: puted at each gauging station for the two periods tational cross-section. The theoretical source (Bayliss 1999; Reed 2007) and the FLATWET the years 2007-2012 from the IMGW-PIB in the optimisation process (i = 1, 2, 3, ... 9); 1961-1990 (1990) and 1983-2012 (2012). is located at a distance of 85% of the river length descriptor used in Ireland (Mills 2009; Mills et al. weather station in Dobczyce. x is the known value of a descriptor (e.g. W50) (12) The relative error of hydrograph width was

above the computational cross-section. 2014), modified by the exclusion of the winter or of another parameter (e.g. tp); is the sought calculated from the following formula (Chai, period. For Polish conditions, GLEMOK is de- 2.2.2. PARAMETRIC DESIGN value of the descriptor (e.g. W50) or another (13) Draxler 2014): termined for the 30-year series of measurement HYDROGRAPHS parameter (e.g. t ). (5) p data as the net balance of supply (precipitation) Based on the nonparametric flow hydro- The optimisation process was carried out in- Figure 5 shows the parametric flow hydrographs (14) and losses (terrain evaporation) for the daily data graph obtained byArcher’s method, a deter- dependently for the descriptors W50 and W75 computed based on:

2 https://dane.gov.pl and the skewness coefficient s, as well as the pa- 1. the hydrograph width at 50% (W50) and at 75% where: REp is the relative error of hydrograph 3 https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/eu-dem rameters describing the hydrograph: n and tp. (W75) of peak flow and the skewness coefficient width Wp, p = 50%, p = 75% or skewness co- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Flow descriptors for parametric hydrographs accounting for afforestation of the catchment Volume 8 | Issue 1 Beata Baziak, Wiesław Gądek, Marek Bodziony, Tamara Tokarczyk

Table 5. Quality measures for relative errors of hydrograph width Wp and skewness coefficients efficient s [%]; Wp is the hydrograph width at p = 50%, p = 75% or skewness coefficient quality W50 W75 s s determined from the nonparametric design very good <10% <20% <10% hydrograph [h]; is the hydrograph width at good <10%,15%) <20%,40%) <10%,15%) weak <15%,20%) <40%,60%) <15%,20%) p = 50%, p = 75% determined from formulae very weak ≥20% ≥60% ≥20% (9), (10) and (11) [h]. According to the evaluation criteria, the qualities of the computed hydrograph

widths W50, W75, and skewness coefficient s for both periods may be classed as good Table 6. Percentage contributions of quality measures for relative errors of hydrograph width W50, and very good. To obtain a more reliable eval- W75 and skewness coefficients for the periods 1961-1990 (1990) and 1983-2012 (2012) uation, further criteria were applied, based W50 W75 s quality on comparison of the volumes and centres 1990 2012 1990 2012 1990 2012 of gravity of the computed hydrographs with very good 100% 100% 87.5% 100% 87.5% 77.8% good 0% 0% 12.5% 0% 12.5% 22.2% the hydrographs obtained from real data. weak 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% The volume of the hydrograph above very weak 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% the p-percent flow, for p = 50% and p = 75%, was determined using the following definition (see Fig. 7):

(15)

where: Vp is the volume of the hydrograph above

the p-percent flow, p = 30%; Np is the num- ber of percent flows exceeding the p-percent

42 flow: 16 for p = 30%; Vp,i is the partial volume 43 of the hydrograph between successive p-percent flows. The centre of gravity time coordinate was de- termined for the part of the hydrograph above the p-percent flow, p = 30% (see Fig. 7):

(16)

Fig. 6. Relative errors of hydrograph width Wp: A – for p = 50%, B – for p = 75%, C – for s, where: rp is the time coordinate of the centre of gravity of the hydrograph above the p-percent for the periods 1961-1990 (1990) and 1983-2012 (2012)

flow, p = 30% [h]; Np is the number of percent flows exceeding the p-percent flow, i.e. 16 for

p = 30%; Vp,i is the partial volume of the hydro- graph between successive p-percent flows [h];

li is the time coordinate of the centre of gravity

ri of the partial volume [h]; ri is the centre of gravity of the partial volume. A comparison of volumes and centres of grav- ity of the hydrographs based on values com- puted using formulae (9), (10) and (11) with the hydrographs based on the values of W50, W75, and s found from the nonparametric Ar- Fig. 5. Parametric hydrographs, where Input denotes the hydrograph obtained from the values W50, W75, and s taken from the nonparametric Archer cher hydrograph is shown in Figure 8. hydrograph; Calculated 1 denotes the hydrograph obtained from the values computed by formulae (9), (10) and (11); Calculated 2 denotes the hydrograph A comparison of the volumes and centres obtained from the values computed by formulae (12) and (13) – the Rabka gauging station on the Raba in 1990 (a) and 2012 (b); the Stróża gauging of gravity of the hydrographs based on values station on the Raba in 1990 (c) and 2012 (d); the Krzczonów gauging station on the Krzczonówka in 1990 (e) and 2012 (f); the Stradomka gauging station computed using formulae (12) and (13) with on the Stradomka in 1990 (g) and 2012 (h) the hydrographs based on the values of W50, W75, and s found from the nonparametric Fig. 7. Sketch for determining the partial volume of a hydrograph (trapezoid area) and the centre Archer hydrograph is shown in Figure 9. of gravity time coordinate used in equations 15 and 16 Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Flow descriptors for parametric hydrographs accounting for afforestation of the catchment Volume 8 | Issue 1 Beata Baziak, Wiesław Gądek, Marek Bodziony, Tamara Tokarczyk

REFERENCES • Gądek W., Tokarczyk T., Środula A., 2016, Es- • Mioduszewski W., 2012, Small water reservoirs • Archer D., Foster M., Faulkner D., Mawdsley timation of parametric flood hydrograph de- – their function and construction, Journal H., 2000, The synthesis of design flood hy- termined by means of Strupczewski method of Water and Land Development, 17, 45-52, drographs, [in:] Proceedings Flooding – Risks in the Vistula and Odra catchments, Journal DOI: 10.2478/v10025-012-0006-z and Reactions, Conference by CIWEM and ICE, of Water and Land Development, 31, 43-51, • Mioduszewski W., 2014, Small (natural) wa- London, 45-57 DOI: 10.1515/jwld-2016-0035 ter retention in rural areas, Journal of Wa- • Baptista M., 1990, Contribution à l’étude de la • Gądek W., Baziak B., Tokarczyk T., 2017a, Non- ter and Land Development, 20, 19-29, DOI: propagation de crues en hydrologie. Hydrologie. parametric design hydrograph in the gauged 10.2478/jwld-2014-0005 Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees, avail- cross sections of the Vistula and Odra basin, • Nash J.E., 1957, The form of the instantaneous able at https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pas- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Manage- unit hydrograph, [in:] General Assembly of To- tel-00568722/document (data acces 06.08.2019) ment, 5 (1), 53-61, DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/67911 ronto, Vol. III, IASH Publications No 45, 114-121 • Baptista M., Michel C., 1990, Influence des car- • Gądek W., Baziak B., Tokarczyk T., 2017b, • O’Connor K., Goswami M., 2009, Flood Stud- acteristiques hydrauliques des bies sur la prop- Strupczewski method for parametric design ies Update: Work-Package WP-3.1 “Hydro- agation des pointes de crue, La Houille Blanche, hydrographs in ungauged cross-sections, graph width analysis”. Final Report, available 2, 141-148 Archives of Hydro-Engineering and Environ- at https://opw.hydronet.com/data/files/ • Bayliss A. C., 1999, Flood estimation book. Vol- mental Mechanics, 64 (1), 49-67, DOI: 10.1515/ WP3_1%20Hydrograph%20Width%20Analy- ume 5: Catchment descriptors, Institute of Hy- heem-2017-0004 sis%20-%20Final%20Report.pdf (data access drology, Wallingford, 130 pp. • Hayashi T., Nagamine Y., Nishida A., 1986, A vi- 06.08.2019) • Chai T., Draxler R.R., 2014, Root mean square bration model to describe the lactation curve • O’Connor K., Goswami M., Faulkner D., 2014, error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)? of a dairy cow, Japanese Journal of Zootech- Flood Studies Update: Technical Research Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the liter- nical Science, 57 (6), 471-478, DOI: 10.2508/ Report. Volume III: Hydrograph analysis, avail- ature, Geoscientific Model Development, 7 (3), chikusan.57.471 able at https://opw.hydronet.com/data/files/ 1247-1250, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-7-1247-2014 • IMGW, 1980a, Podział hydrograficzny Polski. Technical%20Research%20Report%20-%20 • Ciepielowski A., 1987, Statistical methods Część I: Zestawienia liczbowe, H. Czarnecka Volume%20III%20-%20Hydrograph%20Anal- of determining typical winter and summer (ed.), IMGW, Warszwa ysis(1).pdf (data access 06.08.2019) hydrographs for ungauged watersheds, [in:] • IMGW, 1980b, Podział hydrograficzny Pols- • Reed D.W., 2007, Flood Studies Update: Fig. 8. Comparison of volumes (a) and centres of gravity (b) of parametric Flood hydrology, V.P. Singh (ed.), Springer, ki. Część II: Mapy, H. Czarnecka (ed.), IMGW, Work-Package 5.4. PROPWET for Ireland: 44 Fig. 9. Comparison of volumes (a) and centres of gravity (b) of parametric 45 hydrographs computed using formulae (9), (10) and (11) with the volumes hydrographs computed using formulae (12) and (13) with the volumes Dordrecht, 117-124, DOI: 10.1007/978-94-009- Warszawa a dimensionless index of typical catchment (a) and centres of gravity (b) of parametric hydrographs obtained using (a) and centres of gravity (b) of parametric hydrographs obtained using 3957-8_10 • IMGW, 1988a, Atlas hydrologiczny Polski. Tom wetness, available at https://opw.hydronet. the values of W50, W75, and s found from the nonparametric Archer the values of W50, W75, and s found from the nonparametric Archer • Ciepielowski A., 2001, Relationships between I: Mapy, J. Stachy (ed.), IMGW, Warszawa com/data/files/Microsoft%20Word%20-%20 hydrograph hydrograph selected elements of the flood hydrographs • IMGW, 1988b, Atlas hydrologiczny Polski. Tom Work%20Package%205_4%20-%20Final%20 in rivers, Journal of Water and Land Develop- II: Metoda opracowania, zestawienia liczbowe, Report_1_.pdf (data access 06.08.2019) 5. SUMMARY ma density function; this approach limits for the computed hydrograph agree with ment, 5, 89-105 J. Stachy (ed.), IMGW, Warszawa • Reitz W., Kreps H., 1945, Näherungsverfahren AND CONCLUSIONS the freedom of choice of a function describ- the hydrograph based on the values of W50, • Driessen P.M., Konijn N.T., 1992, Land-use sys- • Mills P., 2009, Flood Studies Update: zur Berechnung des erforderlichen Stauraumes The proposed empirical formulae enabling ing the parametric flow hydrograph. W75, and s found from the nonparametric tems analysis, Wageningen Agricultural Uni- Work-Package 5.3, Preparation of physi- für Zwecke des Hochwasserschutzes Deut- the determination of parametric flow hy- The results for the catchment of the Raba Archer hydrograph. The computed relative versity, Department of Soil Science & Geology, cal catchment descriptors, Report to OPW, sche, Wasserwirtschaft drographs confirm the possibility of im- River show that both solutions reflect the para- error for the values of hydrograph width at Malang: INRES, 210 pp. available at https://opw.hydronet.com/ • Strupczewski W., 1964, Równanie fali plementing methods developed in Western metric flow hydrographs well. The agreement p = 50%, p = 75% (W50, W75) and the skew- • Gądek W., Środula A., 2014, The evaluation data/files/Work%20Package%205_3%20 powodziowej, Wiadomości Służby Hydrolog- European countries for the purposes of hy- of the hydrographs in terms of volume and po- ness coefficient s, along with their quality of the design flood hydrographs determined -%20Final%20Report(1).pdf (data access icznej i Meteorologicznej, 2 (57), 35-58 drology in Poland. The two presented groups sition of centre of gravity, as shown in Figures measures, confirm the possibility of apply- with the hydroproject method in the gauged 06.08.2019) • Strupczewski W., Bogdanowicz E., Kochan- of formulas (9), (10), (11) and (12), (13) 8 and 9, is satisfactory for both methods. ing the formulae for their determination catchments, Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów • Mills P., Nicholson O., Reed D., 2014, Flood ek K., 2013, Discussion of “Synthetic design represent independent methods for obtain- The coefficient of determination (R2) for com- at any river cross-section; this is an advan- Wiejskich, 4, 1355-1366 Studies Update: Technical Research Report. hydrographs based on distribution functions ing parametric flow hydrographs. The first paring the volumes of the hydrographs based tage of the proposed solutions. The quality • Gądek W., Tokarczyk T., 2015, Determining hy- Volume IV: Physical catchment descriptors, with finite support” by Francesco Serinaldi group relates to computation of the values on values of W50, W75, and s from the non- of fit for W50 is extremely high; for W75 pothetical floods in the Odra basin by means available at https://opw.hydronet.com/data/ and Salvatore Grimaldi, Journal of Hydrolog- of hydrograph width at p = 50%, p = 75% parametric Archer hydrograph with those and s it is slightly lower. It would therefore of the Cracow method and the volume formula, files/Technical%20Research%20Report%20 ic Engineering, 18 (1), 121-126, DOI: 10.1061/ (W50, W75) and the skewness coefficient of the parametric hydrographs using formu- appear appropriate to verify whether the use Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejs- -%20Volume%20IV%20-%20Physical%20 (ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000538 s, on the basis of which one may obtain lae (9), (10) and (11) is 0.68. When formulae of a value other than the hydrograph width kich, 4 (4), 1507-1519, DOI: 10.14597/infrae- Catchment%20Descriptors.pdf (data access a parametric hydrograph described by any (12) and (13) are used R2 is 0.78. For compar- at p = 75% might lead to a higher quality co.2015.4.4.109 06.08.2019) function, e.g., the gamma density function, ing the centres of gravity of the hydrographs of fit of the hydrograph for that value. Baptista’s gamma density function (Baptista based on the values of W50, W75, and s from The proposed solutions should be treated 1990), the UPO-ERR gamma (O’Connor the nonparametric Archer hydrograph with as verification of the possibility of implement- et al. 2014) or the Hayashi function (Ha- those of the parametric hydrographs com- ing the methods applied in Western European yashi et al. 1986). Thus, a parametric hy- puted using formulae (9), (10) and (11), R2 countries for the purposes of hydrology in Po- drograph can be determined in an optimum is 0.72, and when formulae (12) and (13) land. It is necessary to extend the field of study manner. In the case of the second solution are used R2 is 0.78. Comparing the position to other catchments and to verify how the qual- the computed parameters are the wave shape of centres of gravity checks that the volumes ity of the results would be affected by using dif-

n and the time to peak tp for Baptista’s gam- of the rising limb and the recession limb ferent physical catchment descriptors. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Integrated assessment of change in contribution of excessive moisture to farming risks in the humid zone of Western Russia Volume 8 | Issue 1 Mikhail V. Nikolaev

1. INTRODUCTION in this research (Eitzinger et al. 2007; Nikolaev 3. APPROACHES The Humid Zone (HZ) of Western Russia com- 2010, 2015a, b, 2016, 2017, 2018). AND RESULTS prises the European territory of the Russian 3.1. SPATIOTEMPORAL Federation between 52-63°N and 28-53°E. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS MONITORING OF FARMING This zone is characterized by flat relief and pre- The 70-yr monthly precipitation and mean RISKS dominantly podzolic soils with high moisture monthly air temperature data (1945-2015) were Among climatic indicators are those based content. In recent years, a sharp increase obtained from the stations located within the ter- on long-term agrometeorological observa- in precipitation totals, especially in summer, ritory under study. These data were transformed tions of growth conditions during the veg- has led to significant losses in the crop pro- into agroclimatic variables for the intensive etation season. Table 1 presents the agrocli- duction in this zone due to crop over-wetting growth season, i.e. May, June, and July. The fol- matic indicators of emerging farming risks across large areas, including drained lands. lowing aspects were considered in developing associated with excessive moisture effects According to the climate change scenarios for our methodology: selecting the agroclimatic in- during the warm months, as proposed by Integrated assessment European regions with cool temperate climate, dicators and time intervals; development of spa- I.A. Gol’tsberg and A.D. Pasechnjuk (Sinitsi- further increase in annual precipitation totals ac- tiotemporal monitoring of at-risk farming areas; na et al. 1973; Pasechnjuk 1990). of change in contribution companied by rising mean annual air temperature comparison of the changing contribution of pre- Based on these indicators, spatiotemporal is predicted (Kjellstrom et al. 2011; IPCC 2014; cipitation and thermal conditions to the inten- monitoring of crop areas with different percent- Katssov et al. 2017). Thus, crop production sity of farming risks, etc. The principal methods ages of years with crop waterlogging and lodg- of excessive moisture is expected to be very vulnerable to the im- are functional and statistical analysis, including ing effects in the changing climate conditions pending climatic changes in the HZ. This re- trend and residual analysis. has been conducted, using a 5-yr step shift with- to farming risks in the humid search has been conducted primarily to assess the observed changes in precipitation and also to evaluate impacts on the sustainability of re- zone of Western Russia gional cropping systems given the increasing re- currence and degree of farming risks caused Mikhail V. Nikolaev by excessive moisture. Agrophysical Research Institute, Grazhdanksiy prospekt 14, 195220 St. Petersburg, Russia Here, the focus is put on the assessment e-mail: [email protected] 46 of such risks during the warm period of the year. 47 DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/111543 Some earlier efforts to assess climate change im- pacts on crop yield risk have been partially used

Fig. 2. Dynamics of the summertime EA indices (June-August) from 1950 to 2017 and 7-yr moving averages (the Gaussian filter is used)

ABSTRACT. This paper is devoted to assessing the farming risks associated with excessive moisture effects in the Humid Zone of Western Russia over the past seven decades. The proposed spatiotemporal monitoring of the areas of this zone vulnerable to over-wetting allows us to evaluate the aggregate impact of climate variability and change on the degree of risk to farming over time. Furthermore, the detailed scale of the G.T. Selyaninov Hydrothermal Index (HTC) (with high values in July) is proposed to identify the recurrence and intensity of such risks as crop lodging under ongoing climate change (by comparing two 35-yr time intervals: 1945-1979 and 1980-2014). The functional analysis of HTC helps to show an increasing contribution of extreme precipitation totals to lodging intensity in comparison with cumulative air temperature contribution in recent decades, even in cases when air temperature sums have a tendency to increase. Moreover, the regression relationships between high precipitation totals and high HTC values are revealed more distinctly in the time interval of 1980-2014 due to a decrease in the residual variance. The comparative analysis of empirical distributions of total seasonal precipitation deviations from trends within time intervals 1946-1980 and 1981-2015 also confirmed the increasing recurrence of marginal positive anomalies in summer and autumn precipitation totals in the time interval of 1981-2015. In conclusion, the effects of excess moisture on the sustainability of regional crop production are assessed, and adaptation strategies are discussed.

KEYWORDS: Humid zone, climate change, excessive moisture effects, farming risks. Fig. 1. Monitoring of crop areas vulnerable to excessive moisture effects during warm Fig. 3. Dynamics of summer air temperature (June-August) since 1950 to 2017 and 7-yr moving

SUBMITTED: 19 February 2019 | REVISED:20 May 2019 | ACCEPTED: 6 August 2019 period (HZ of Western Russia) averages (the Gaussian filter is used) at Pskov: 57.8°N, 28.4°E Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Integrated assessment of change in contribution of excessive moisture to farming risks in the humid zone of Western Russia Volume 8 | Issue 1 Mikhail V. Nikolaev

in the 30-yr observed period beginning in 1946 tremely dry conditions in July 2010 and July tures in the time interval 1981-2017 (see Fig- (Nikolaev 2017). Figure 1 illustrates the spatial 2012 in the southwestern and central parts ures 2 and 3). It should be noted that the 68-yr dynamics of the vulnerable areas. of the HZ. dynamics of summer EA indices include an in- The optimal configuration of isoline-con- flection point observed in approximately 1980. toured areas with varied recurrence of farming 3.2. COMPARATIVE This inflection point is very important risks employed GIS interpolation methods, ANALYSIS OF FARMING as it is related to the northern expansion of crop are- such as kriging (Silkin 2008). This technique RISKS CAUSED BY as of small cereals, maize hybrids, sunflower and fib- enables visualization of temporal changes EXCESSIVE MOISTURE er flax, as well as highly productive seed grasses. in the boundaries of vulnerable areas rela- EFFECTS IN THE CHANGING Selyaninov Hydrothermal Index values for

tive to those for the baseline climate condi- CLIMATE CONDITIONS July (HTCVII) are proposed for identifying tions (in the observed period 1961-1990). For comparative analysis of farming risks the intensity and recurrence of farming risk Obviously, the most extensive vulnerable within the HZ, it is convenient to subdivide from root and stem lodging in the changing cli- areas are noticeable within the recent 30- the period from 1945 to 2014 into two 35-yr mate conditions:

yr period (predominantly the years after intervals: 1945-1979 and 1980-2014. The ra- • 1.8 ≤ HTCVII ≤ 2.5 1980) in comparison with the earlier tionale for this subdivision includes: (1) the in- (perceptible root-stem lodging);

30-yr period. The occurrence of areas most crease in cyclonic activity at the middle-high • 2.5 < HTCVII ≤ 3.5 vulnerable to the risk of early lodging latitudes in recent decades, and (2) upward (severe root-stem lodging);

in the northern regions of the HZ within the trends in the mean annual air temperature, • 3.5 < HTCVII ≤ 4.5

30-yr periods 1946-1975 and 1951-1980 observed for Russian regions since the 1980s (very severe root-stem lodging); Fig. 4. Three-dimensional representation of the HTC values ≥1.8 for July; Fig. 5. Change in contribution of abundant precipitation in July to high HTCVII Kostroma: 57.7°N, 40.8°E (forest belt of the HZ); red dots – time interval values Kostroma: 57.7°N, 40.8°E (forest belt of the HZ); horizontal axis: pre- is explained by the prevalence of low air tem- (Nesterov 2003, 2009; Franzke, Feldstein • HTCVII > 4.5 peratures in May-June, along with precipita- 2005; Drozdov, Smirnov 2011; Murav’ev, Ku- (extremely severe root- stem lodging) of 1945-1979, white dots – time interval of 1980-2014 cipitation sums for July [mm], vertical axis: the HTC Index values for July; dot-

tion amounts close to the long-term mean likova 2011; Katssov, Semenov 2014; Kulikova ted line: 70-yr mean of precipitation amounts for July equals of ∑PVII = 73 mm value. At the same time, there was some reduc- et al. 2015; Polonskij, Kibal’chich 2015; Kiktev The proposed scale reflects the increas- tion in the size of areas vulnerable to the risk et al. 2018). Moreover, according to our recent ing effects of both incessant and heavy rain This table also shows a number of cases where The contribution of each factor to high HTC val- total precipitation in July exceeded the of lodging for the period 1984-2013. This ob- study, there is strong agreement between the dy- on the lodging rate of example crops and their the percentage of years with perceptible and se- ues can be assessed, as well as the variation in HTC, 70-yr mean value (72 mm) by 177 mm. servation is accounted for by the diminish- namics of 7-yr moving averages of the sum- varieties due to the emerging conditions that lead vere root-stem lodging in the northern regions by means of this surface projection. The criterion

48 ing number of years with excessively wet mer East Atlantic pattern (EA) indices and to thinning of the soil surface and increasing during 1980-2014 is similar to that in the south- of this assessment is based on the proximity of re- 3.4. ASSESSMENT 49 conditions after 2005, and emergence of ex- 7-yr moving averages of summer air tempera- mechanical load on stems, despite the applica- ern regions during 1945-1979. This fact has lationships shown in Figures 5-9. The conclusion OF THE CHANGING tion of short-statured cultivars in some regions been analyzed in detail previously to estab- may be made that the July precipitation totals CONTRIBUTION Table 1. Farming risks associated with excessive moisture effects during the warm period (Gringof 1986). Simultaneously, the percentage lish the spatiotemporal analogue within the make a governing contribution to the lodging OF SEASONAL Farming risk Agroclimatic indicator of occurrence of crop areas subjected to root-stem lodging in- HZ (Nikolaev 2015a). intensity, compared to the July air temperature PRECIPITATION Crop water logging in spring ∑P ≥ 230 mm IX-III creases with time. totals. Simultaneously, Figures 5-7 demonstrate TOTALS TO RECURRENCE Early root-stem lodging HTC ≥ 1.8 Y-VI Table 2 demonstrates an increase in the per- 3.3. ASSESSMENT the increasing contribution of the extreme precipi- OF FARMING RISKS Root-stem lodging in ordinary dates HTCVII ≥ 1.8 centage of years with greater intensity of root- OF THE CHANGING tation totals in July to the lodging intensity during It is known that crop farming in the HZ often Note: ∑P is precipitation totals for September-March; HTC is the G.T. Selyaninov’s Hydrothermal Index for May-June; IX-III Y-VI stem lodging during 1980-2014 compared CONTRIBUTIONS 1980-2014 in different parts of the HZ. This con- is subjected to adverse effects due to the abun- HTCVII is the G.T. Selyaninov’s Hydrothermal Index for July; HTC is a ratio of precipitation sums to air temperature sums with proportional coefficient equals 10 (Selyaninov 1958) to 1945-1979. OF PRECIPITATION tribution accounts for the fact that the dots are dant precipitation over the year. Therefore, sta- AND THERMAL CONDITIONS located on a straight line, reflecting the decrease tistical methods are used for analyzing the em- Table 2. Recurrence of root-stem lodging with different intensity [% of years] in the time intervals of 1945-1979 and 1980-2014 TO THE INTENSITY in the residual variance. pirical distributions of the deviations of seasonal in the HZ of Western Russia OF FARMING RISKS Figures 8 and 9 show the changing contribution precipitation totals around the trends (Kova-

Root-stem lodging category Functional analysis (Kolmogorov, Fomin of cumulative air temperatures to the high HTCVII lenko, Filippova 1982). Linear trend models Station name with Perceptible Severe Very severe Extremely severe 1976; Nikolaev 2016) has been applied to as- values at Smolensk and at Vytegra. A general drift (Anderson 1971) are applied to account for geographic coordinates 1.8 ≤ HTCVII ≤ 2.5 2.5 < HTCVII ≤ 3.5 3.5 < HTCVII ≤ 4.5 HTCVII > 4.5 1945-1979 1980-2014 1945-1979 1980-2014 1945-1979 1980-2014 1945-1979 1980-2014 sess the changing contributions of precipita- of dot clouds towards the air temperature totals less the high interannual and intra-seasonal varia- Pskov tion and thermal conditions to the intensity than their 70-yr mean values is observed, which bility in the precipitation totals. A comparison 29% 9% 9% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57.8°N; 28.4°E of farming risks. The HTC index is a func- corresponds to the usual conditions when lodging is made for the periods 1946-1980 and 1981- Smolensk 20% 26% 17% 9% 6% 6% 0% 3% 54.5°N; 32.3°E tion of two variables: the precipitation totals occurs. Nevertheless, the dots related to 1980-2014 2015 (Nikolaev 2018). Figures 10-12 are histo- Trubchevsk 14% 23% 20% 9% 0% 3% 0% 0% and the cumulative air temperatures (degree-days), are plotted a bit to the right, i.e. high and very grams of deviations in seasonal precipitation to- 52.6°N; 33.8°E Kostroma i.e. a surface with two horizontal axes – high HTCVII values are observed at the high- tals from trends in both time intervals for several 17% 23% 9% 6% 6% 3% 0% 0% 57.7°N; 40.8°E the precipitation sums and air temperature er air temperature totals. Figure 9 also shows stations located in different parts of the HZ. For Petrozavodsk 17% 20% 11% 9% 0% 3% 0% 0% 61.8°N; 34.3°E sums and a vertical axis – the HTC index. that in the northern regions of the HZ extremely each histogram, both the equation of the linear Vytegra For example, Figure 4 shows the 3-dimen- high HTC values are observed even at air tem- trend and parameters of the empirical distri- 17% 29% 11% 11% 0% 3% 0% 0% VII 61.0°N; 36.4°E sional representation of the HTC index perature totals noticeably higher than their 70-yr bution of residuals, i.e. standard deviation (s), Vologda 17% 9% 9% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 59.3°N; 39.9°E with the plotted HTC index values ≥1.8 mean values during 1980-2014. skewness (s) and kurtosis (k), are presented. Shenkursk 9% 17% 9% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% for the two time intervals of 1945-1979 For example, at Kotlas (61.2°N, 46.7°E) A significant increase in s for summer pre- 62.1°N; 42.9°E

Kotlas and 1980-2014 at Kostroma. For conven- the extremely high HTCVII value of 4.14 oc- cipitation totals is observed for 1981-2015 14% 17% 11% 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 61.2°N; 46.7°E ient visual assessment of how the dot clouds curred in 2000 when the air temperature to- (1.6 greater than s for 1946-1980) because Syktyvkar 14% 23% 6% 14% 3% 0% 0% 0% 61.7°N; 50.8°E shift, the isolines are plotted with intervals tals exceeded the 70-yr mean value (515°C) of the marginal positive anomalies caused of 0.5 in the HTC index. by almost 100°C, and exceptionally high by the extremely high precipitation totals Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Integrated assessment of change in contribution of excessive moisture to farming risks in the humid zone of Western Russia Volume 8 | Issue 1 Mikhail V. Nikolaev

Fig. 6. Change in contribution of abundant precipitation in July to high HTCVII Fig. 7. Change in contribution of abundant precipitation in July to high HTCVII values Smolensk: 54.5°N, 32.3°E (forest belt of the HZ); horizontal axis: pre- values Vytegra: 61.0°N, 36.4°E (subboreal forest belt of the HZ); horizontal cipitation sums for July [mm], vertical axis: the HTC Index values for July; dot- axis: precipitation sums for July [mm], vertical axis: the HTC Index values

ted line: 70-yr mean of precipitation amounts for July equals of ∑PVII = 91 mm for July; dotted line: 70-yr mean of precipitation amounts for July equals Fig. 10. Empirical distributions of seasonal precipitation totals in the time intervals of 1946-1980 and 1981-2015; Pskov: 57.8°N, 28.4°E (forest belt of the HZ)

of ∑PVII = 77 mm

50 51

Fig. 8. Change in contribution of cumulative air temperatures for July to high Fig. 9. Change in contribution of cumulative air temperatures for July to high

HTCVII values; Smolensk: 54.5°N, 32.3°E (forest belt of the HZ); horizontal axis: HTCVII values; Vytegra: 61.0°N, 36.4°E (sub-boreal forest belt of the HZ); hori- cumulative air temperatures for July [°C], vertical axis: the HTC Index values zontal axis: cumulative air temperatures for July [°C], vertical axis: the HTC for July; dotted line: 70-yr mean of cumulative air temperatures for July equals Index values for July; dotted line: 70-yr mean of cumulative air temperatures Fig. 11. Empirical distributions of seasonal precipitation totals in the time intervals of 1946-1980 and 1981-2015; Vologda: 59.3°N, 39.9°E (forest belt of the HZ)

of ∑TVII = 521°C for July equals of ∑TVII = 508°C

3.5. ASSESSMENT yields. Among small cereals, such crops as winter than yield losses in extremely dry years such as 1972 in summer at Pskov (western part of the HZ), see da (eastern part of the HZ); see Figure 11. Although s values are greater for all sea- OF EXCESSIVE MOISTURE rye and winter wheat were revealed to be the most and 1975. For example, in 1958 yield losses of win- Figure 10. At the same time, the skewness Meanwhile, the skewness changes sign between sons during 1981-2015 in comparison with EFFECTS ON THE vulnerable. Then, yield losses of these crops were ter rye at Shenkursk exceeded 29% (summer pre- nd of all distributions for the 2 interval is positive the winter and autumn seasons. Thus, the skew- those during 1945-1980 at Syktyvkar SUSTAINABILITY compared with several moisture indicators such cipitation was 383 mm, HTCV-VI = 3.09, HTCVII

and larger, excluding the spring season. The kur- ness is positive for the distribution of autumn (the northeastern part of the HZ), the skew- OF CROP PRODUCTION as summer precipitation totals, HTCV-VI, HTCVII, = 1.58, HTCVII-VIII = 1.96, summer EA index val-

tosis is also larger, excluding the spring season. precipitation in the second time interval (with ness is negative for summer precipitation To assess excessive moisture effects on sustain- HTCVII-VIII and summer EA indices. Thus, during ue = 0.29); in 1961 yield losses of winter rye at For the same reason, the high s for summer increasing s), whereas the skewness is negative for totals in the 2nd time interval; see Figure 12. ability of crop production in the HZ of Western 1945-1979 there were significant yield losses, cor- Vytegra exceeded 36% (summer precipitation st nd precipitation totals is observed for 1981-2015 the 1 time interval. The kurtosis differs insignif- The kurtosis is greater in the 2 time inter- Russia, we analyzed the dynamics of yield loss- responding to the excessively wet years 1950, 1958, was 462 mm, HTCV-VI = 1.40, HTCVII = 3.33,

(1.3 greater than s for 1946-1980) at Volog- icantly for all distributions, except for summer. val, except for winter. es with respect to technological trends in crop and 1961. These yield losses were 10-15% greater HTCVII-VIII = 4.22, summer EA index value = 0.31). Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Integrated assessment of change in contribution of excessive moisture to farming risks in the humid zone of Western Russia Volume 8 | Issue 1 Mikhail V. Nikolaev

precipitation and thermal conditions agree with • Eitzinger J., Utset A., Trnka M., Zalud Z., Nikolaev and with major modes of North Atlantic surface the changes in air temperature and precipita- M., Uskov I., 2007, Weather and climate and op- temperature variability, (in Russian), Meteorolo- tion based on the transient GCM simulation for timization of farm technologies at different in- gy and Hydrology, 5, 5-16 the long term. It provides the opportunity for better put levels, [in:] Managing weather and climate • Nesterov E.S., 2003, Phases of the North Atlan- choices of the most probable scenarios for the cli- risks in agriculture, M.V.K. Sivakumar, R.P. Motha tic Oscillation, (in Russian), Meteorology and Hy- mate in the future for further investigations. (eds.), Springer, 141-170 drology, 1, 64-74 On the other hand, the assessment presented • Franzke C., Feldstein S.B., 2005, The continuum • Nesterov E.S., 2009, The East Atlantic pattern serves as a basis for developing regional adaptation and dynamics of Northern Hemisphere telecon- of the atmospheric circulation, (in Russian), Me- strategies. Specifically: nection patterns, Journal of Atmospheric Sci- teorology and Hydrology, 12, 32-40 • improving tillage practice, namely: wide appli- ence, 62 (9), 3250-3267, DOI: 10.1175/JAS3536.1 • Nikolaev M.V., 2010, Impact of climate change cation of ridge and close-bed plowing in order • Gringof I.G. (ed.), 1986, Agronomist handbook on agriculture in North-West Russia and adap- to reduce the distance between the furrows on agricultural meteorology for the non-cherno- tation options, [in:] Advances in environmental to accelerate surplus water flow, as well as shal- zem zone of the European part of Russia, (in Rus- modeling and measurements, D.T. Mihailovic, B. low plowing with rolling in the autumn to in- sian), Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 527 pp. Lalic (eds.), Nova Science Publishers, 223-231 tensify surface runoff in the early spring; • IPCC, 2014, Climate change 2014: Synthesis re- • Nikolaev M.V., 2015a, Application of spatial-tem- • effective application of drainage systems: ad- port, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III poral analogs method for assessing crop farm- justment of pipe drainage capacity, use of sur- to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergov- ing vulnerability due to climate change, (in Rus- face drainage due to more frequent summer ernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writ- sian), Proceedings of the Russian Geographical rains (in the waterlogged areas the creation ing Team, R.K. Pachauri, L.A. Meyer (eds.), IPCC, Society, 147 (1), 1-12 of more frequent network of deep channels); Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. • Nikolaev M.V., 2015b, Assessment of risk farming Fig. 12. Empirical distributions of seasonal precipitation totals in the time intervals of 1946-1980 and 1981-2015; Syktyvkar: 61.7°N, 50.8°E (sub-boreal forest belt • smoothing and leveling of agricultural fields • Katssov V.M., Semenov S.M. (eds.), 2014, Second boundaries shift under climate change, (in Rus- of the HZ) (in case of subnormal relief, displacement Roshydromet syntesis report on climate change sian), Proceedings of the Russian Geographical of crop areas from depressions to more high and its consequences for Russian Federation, Society, 147 (1), 54-65 For 1980-2014 the absolute yield losses relat- table is near the surface in the northern and central rise in the surface air temperature. Specifically, relief area); (in Russian), Rosgidromet, Moscow, 58 pp. • Nikolaev M.V., 2016, Assessment of changing contri- ed to excessively wet years were noticeably greater parts of this zone. Field crops are mainly cultivated the increase in the percentage of years character- • switching to more wet- and warm-weather • Katssov V.M., Shkol’nik I.M., Efimov S.V., 2017, Cli- bution of moisturizing and thermal factors to drying than those during 1945-1979. This effect was a re- in the areas with sandy loam soils, medium-tex- ized by emerging risks of different-intensity lodg- crops and varieties in some sub-regions within mate change projections in the Russian regions: tendency in the European part of Russia and West- the detailing in physical and probabilistics spaces, ern Siberia, (in Russian), Agrophysics, 4, 24-34 52 sult of large upward trends in crop yields and also tured loam soils, and clay loam soils, due to lim- ing in the HZ conforms with the specific features the HZ (e.g., enlarging the crop areas under 53 of a significant increase in precipitation amounts ited distribution of sandy- and loamy-sand soils. of such spatiotemporal modes as the North Atlan- buckwheat as well as certain fodder and vege- (in Russian), Meteorology and Hydrology, 6, 68-81 • Nikolaev M.V., 2017, Climate monitoring for as- in the 1993-2008 period. Significant yield loss- Loam soils are less permeable than sandy soils, tic Oscillation and the East Atlantic pattern. table crops); • Kiktev D.B., Kruglova E.N., Kulikova I.A., 2018, sessing crop areas vulnerability to overwetting es of indicated crops were recorded at Vologda a fact reflected in greater yield loss at Smolensk The functional analysis enables us to distinctly • enhancing disease control as well as pest- Effects of large-scale modes of atmospheric cir- in the non-chernozem zone of the European in 1993 (35%), at Kotlas in 2000 (37%), at Ko- (modal gleysolic podzol, medium-textured loam differentiate the changing contribution of precip- and weed control, especially for the species culation on the regimes of temperature and pre- Russia, (in Russian), Proceedings of the Russian stroma in 2003 (22%) and at Petrozavodsk in 2008 soil), than at Pskov (weak podzol, loamy sand soil) itation and thermal conditions to the intensity that are well adapted to wet conditions (e.g., cipitation in the Arctic, (in Russian), Meteorology Geographical Society, 149 (5), 4-16 (31%). The year 1998 was the wettest since 1945, in 1998 as a result of over-wetting of the root layer. of risks associated with excessive moisture. Evi- the lodged crops are usually subjected to rust and Hydrology, 1, 5-21 • Nikolaev M.V., 2018, Assessing the changing con- and this agricultural year was considered most The effects of water logging on winter crops dently, the graphs plotted show the ever-increasing and mildew, and there are many aphids en- • Kjellstrom E., Nikulin G., Hansson U., Strand- tribution of abundant precipitation to farming unfavorable for regional crop production. For ex- in the early spring period typically are caused contribution of the extreme precipitation totals countered in them) berg G., Ullerstig A., 2011, 21st century changes risks in the non-chernozem zone of European ample, yield losses of winter rye at Smolensk ex- by the presence of lowlands and subnormal relief. to the lodging risk intensity compared to cumula- in the European climate: uncertainties de- Russia, (in Russian), Proceedings of the Russian ceeded 54% (summer precipitation was 459 mm, However, these effects have been observed in recent tive air temperature contribution, even in the cases In turn, these strategies may be expanded rived from the ensemble of regional climate Geographical Society, 150 (6), 1-14 models simulations, Tellus, 63 (1), 24-40, DOI: • Pasechnjuk A.D., 1990, Weather and lodging HTCV-VI = 2.19, HTCVII = 4.64, HTCVII-VIII = 4.29, decades more frequently, especially in the north- when air temperature sums tend to increase (likely to the intra-regional levels, taking into consideration summer EA index = 0.77); yield losses of winter eastern part of this zone, i.e., in the sub-region due to the increased contribution of both advec- the local features of the crop production practice. 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x of cereal crops, (in Russian), Gidrometeoizdat, rye at Pskov reached up to 37% (summer pre- with loam soils with expressed gley horizon (e.g., tive and convective types of precipitation). Particularly, the results may be used in crop insur- • Kolmogorov A.N., Fomin S.V., 1976, The elements St. Petersburg, 212 pp. of function theory and functional analysis, • Polonskij A.B., Kibal’chich I.A., 2015, Circulation indi- cipitation was 457 mm, HTCV-VI = 3.32, HTCVII at Vytegra, at Kotlas, and at Syktyvkar). The statistical analysis also confirmed the sig- ance; in decision-making for improving the water (in Russian), Nauka, Moscow, 544 pp. ces and thermal regime of Eastern Europe in winter, = 3.42, HTCVII-VIII = 2.79, summer EA index nificant contribution of extreme summer precip- regime control in the agricultural fields; and in selec- = 0.77). It is noted that these losses are greater 4. CONCLUSIONS itation to the emerging crop over-wetting risks. tive research related to prospective zoning of highly • Kovalenko I.N., Filippova A.A., 1982, Theory (in Russian), Meteorology and Hydrology, 1, 5-17 than yield losses observed in the extremely dry year The results reported above give evidence of the in- This fact demonstrates the increasing recurrence productive crops and their hybrids, etc. of probabilities and mathematical statistics, • Selyaninov G.T., 1958, Principles of agroclimatic 2010 (at Smolensk in 2010 yield losses of winter creasingly negative effect of abundant precipita- of the notable positive anomalies in the summer (in Russian), Vysshaya Shkola, Moscow, 256 pp. zonning of USSR, (in Russian), [in:] Approaches rye amounted to 24%, at Pskov in 2010 yield tion on crop production in the HZ of Western precipitation totals in different parts of the HZ dur- REFERENCES • Kulikova I.A., Kruglova E.N., Kiktev D.B., 2015, and methods of agroclimatic zonning of USSR, losses of winter rye amounted to 20%). According Russia under ever-increasing climatic changes. ing 1981-2015. At the same time, due to the more • Anderson T.W., 1971, The statistical analy- Large-scale modes of atmospheric variability. Part Ministry of Agriculture issue, Moscow, 7-13 to available data, the year 2017 was an exception- Spatiotemporal monitoring of the areas vul- frequent occurrence of such anomalies in autumn, sis of time series, John Wiley and Sons, New II. The impact on the spatial distribution of tem- • Silkin K.J., 2008, Geo-information system gold- ally wet year. For instance, yield losses of winter nerable to crop over-wetting reflects the aggre- the harvest is made difficult or completely hin- York-London-Sydney-Toronto, 704 pp. perature and precipitation in the Northen Eurasia, en software surfer 8, (in Russian), The Voronezh rye in this year at Vytegra exceeded 40% (sum- gate impact of climate variability and change dered, while unfavorable pre-wintering conditions • Drozdov V.V., Smirnov N.P., 2011, Long-term (in Russian), Meteorology and Hydrology, 4, 5-15 State University issue, Voronezh, 65 pp. changes of climate and hydrological regime • Murav’ev A.V., Kulikova I.A., 2011, Interaction • Sinitsina N.I., Gol’tsberg I.A., Strunnikov J.A., mer precipitation was 406 mm, HTCV-VI = 2.40, in the degree of risk for farming in the humid for winter crops are also created. in the Baltic region and their reasons, (in Rus- of total precipitation over with atmospheric 1973, Agroclimatology, (in Russian), Gidromete- HTCVII = 4.61, HTCVII-VIII = 3.15, summer EA regions considered here. The change in the con- It should be noted that the reliable regression index = 1.96). It is characteristic that during past figuration of the vulnerable areas in recent decades relationships revealed during this research, in turn, sian), Meteorology and Hydrology, 5, 77-87 centres of action of the Northern Hemisphere oizdat, Leningrad, 343 pp. decades the most significant yield losses were ob- is in good agreement with the increasing cyclon- make it possible to introduce more reliable extrap- served in years with very high HTC values in July. ic activity over the North Atlantic. Meanwhile, olation of the increasing lodging risks from predict- For soils of the HZ of Western Russia, the flush- a shift of the boundaries of the vulnerable area ed precipitation conditions in the nearest future. ing type of water regime is typical, and the water northward is observed, despite the concurrent Furthermore, the observed trends in the changing Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Data-driven discharge analysis: a case study for the Wernersbach catchment, Germany Volume 8 | Issue 1 Eklavyya Popat, Alexey Kuleshov, Rico Kronenberg, Christian Bernhofer

1. INTRODUCTION The transformation of rain into a runoff is a complex process that is difficult to fully understand (Hsu et al. 1995; Humphrey et al. 2016). The challenges faced are mainly linked to the non-stationary features of the phenom- enon (e.g. trends, seasonality, and jumps) and a highly non-linear relationship between discharge and its driving variables (Cannas et al. 2006; Nourani et al. 2011). Hence, a re- liable model for the simulation and prediction of the rainfall-runoff process is in demand, Data-driven discharge analysis: providing important information for integrated water resource management and planning. a case study for the With recent developments in computational intelligence, there has been a rapid expansion in the capabilities of empirical modelling, Wernersbach catchment, and in particular, in data-driven modelling (DDM). DDM is a fundamental analysis tech- nique that uses the data characteristics of a sys- Fig. 1. Wernersbach catchment Germany tem and requires less input as parameters com- pared to other models (Solomatine et al. 2008). The objective of our study is to perform a first to lead to lower temperatures (cold-air forma- Eklavyya Popat As an empirical model, it applies mathematical of its kind investigation for the Wernersbach tion), and convex relief forms generally exhibit Technische Universität Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Dresden, Germany Goethe University, Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt am Main, Germany, e-mail: [email protected] equations in the analysis of concurrent input catchment, based on an approach incorporating higher temperatures in the winter. These differ- and output time series, for example, linear two data-driven models, namely a statistical re- ences in relief also influence incident radiation, Alexey Kuleshov, Rico Kronenberg, Christian Bernhofer Technische Universität Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Dresden, Germany and multi-linear regressions (Clarke 1994). gression model and an artificial neural network wind and precipitation (Bernhofer 2002). The most popular computational techniques model, in order to validate and add to better The climate is essentially characterized 54 DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/112284 55 include artificial neural network (ANN) mod- understanding on the suitability of the models by maritime influences whereby the greatest els, fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBSs), genetic for the catchment’s discharge simulations. It also amount of precipitation is observed during algorithms (GAs), and approaches to model in- aims to provide good insights for future studies the summer months. tegration. ANN have been successfully applied that would incooperate it’s conclusion and devel- The mean annual temperature is 7.5°C, in modelling rainfall-runoff processes e.g. Hsu op on its limitations for future research studies. and the mean annual precipitation is approxi- et al. (1995), Minns and Hall (1996), Dawson mately 847 mm (Goldberg, Bernhofer 2007). and Wilby (1998), Dibike et al. (1999), Abra- 2. STUDY AREA Groundwater occurs only in rhyolite rocks. hart and See (2000), Abrahart et al. (2008). AND METHODOLOGY Therefore, large fluctuations in groundwater More specifically, Solomatine and Avila Torres The catchment area of ​​the Wernersbach is lo- levels can occur within a short time period (1996) replicated the behaviour of river basin cated approximately 25 km southwest of Dres- (Gerold et al. 1998). hydrodynamic/hydrological models and pro- den, in the north-western region of the land- In the upper surface of the paleorhyolite posed the optimal control of a reservoir, while scape conservation area of Tharandt Forest (porphyry), weathering products exhibit Bhattacharya and Solomatine (2003) and Sud- and the eastern part of the Ore Mountains strong cohesive properties. During the ear- heer and Jain (2003) modelled stage-discharge (latitude 50°58’N, longitude 13°28’E). The area ly cretaceous, small low-binder sandstones relationships. covers 4.6 km2 and with an altitude above sea with embedded clay horizons were present ABSTRACT. This study focuses on precipitation-discharge data-driven models, with regression analysis between the weighted maximum rainfall and maximum FRBSs have been successfully applied for level within the range of 323-424 m. in the area. These sandstones are effective discharge of flood events. It is also the first of its kind investigation for the Wernersbach catchment, which incorporates data-driven models in order to evaluate drought assessment (Pesti et al. 1996), the predic- The location of the catchment is depicted in water management. At the layer boundar- the suitability of the model in simulating the discharge from the catchment and provide good insights for future studies. The input parameters are hydrological tion of precipitation events (Abebe et al. 2000b), at the top left-hand side of in Figure 1, with ies of the sandstone and the porphyry layer and climate data collected from 2001 to 2009, including precipitation, rainfall-runoff and soil moisture. The statistical regression and artificial neural network the analysis of groundwater model uncertainty the catchment location marked in red on the po- sources, water discharges are also recorded. models used are based on a data-driven multiple linear regression technique, and the same input parameters are applied for validation and calibration. (Abebe et al. 2000a), the control of water levels litical boundary of Germany. In addition to this, Moreover, further marine sandstone depos- The artificial neural network model has one hidden layer with a sigmoidal activation function and uses a linear activation function in the output layer. in polder areas (Lobbrecht, Solomatine 1999) Figure 1 presents the boundary of the Werners- its have been preserved from the transitional The artificial neural network is observed to model 0.7% and 0.5% of values, with and without extreme values respectively. With less than 1% error, the artificial and the modelling rainfall-discharge dynam- bach catchment in purple and the river and sur- time (i.e. the early cretaceous to the late cre- neural network is observed to predict extreme events better compared to the conventional statistical regression model and is also better suited to the tasks ics (Vernieuwe et al. 2005). Moreover, GAs rounding areas in dark green. taceous), with weathering products that are of rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting. It is presumed that in the future this study’s conclusions would form the basis for more complex and detailed studies have been used to optimise DDM techniques, The local topography and the dominance prone to frost formation. for the same catchment area. such as neural networks (Yao, Liu 1997). Khu of forestry as the land usage type are observed The Wernersbach area is used exclusively et al. (2001) applied genetic programming to majorly contribute to the deviations from for forestry purposes. Spruce is widely pre- KEYWORDS: Artificial Neural Networks, data-driven modelling, event-based coefficient of rainfall-runoff, precipitation, multi-correlation analysis, soil moisture to real-time runoff forecasting for a catchment the average climatic conditions. The area mainly dominant and is used to strike other conifers content. in France, while Giustolisi and Savic (2006) compromises low slopes of less than 3° (Bern- and deciduous trees. In order to improve used evolutionary regression for groundwater hofer 2002). These small-scale relief forms have growth conditions for the forest stands at loca- SUBMITTED: 3 July 2018 | REVISED:21 March 2019 | ACCEPTED: 11 September 2019 and river temperature modelling. a great impact, as concave relief forms tend tions affected by water pollution, a dense net- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Data-driven discharge analysis: a case study for the Wernersbach catchment, Germany Volume 8 | Issue 1 Eklavyya Popat, Alexey Kuleshov, Rico Kronenberg, Christian Bernhofer

Table 1. Water balance components of the catchment Wernersbach (Goldberg, Bernhofer 2007) independent variables (Bilgili 2010). The multiple white boxes demonstrate the three basic steps, 4. RESULTS for the statistical regression model is shown Water Balance Components Measure Unit(s) non-linear regression model (MNLR) is a simple i.e. the data, the data-driven model and the re- AND DISCUSSION in Figure 8. Precipitation 847 mm and efficient method in producing more accurate sult. The three grey boxes show the sub-rou- The areal significance to the point rainfall values It should be noted that 1,798 rain events from Runoff 240 mm maximum daily discharge predictions compared tines. The first step consists of inputs that can assigned by the Thiessen polygon method for five the total 1,804 lie within the range of 0-13 mm, Evapotranspiration 607 mm Minimum runoff (mean) 2.5 litre/sec to the ANN, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference influence the output, i.e. precipitation, previ- rain gauges are depicted in Figure 3. The respec- with the maximum (1,593 events) within Mean runoff 35 litre/sec system and the MLR (Rezaeianzadeh et al. 2014). ous day discharge, and soil moisture. The sec- tive sizes of the areas are reported in Table 2. in the range of 0-1 mm. Maximum runoff (mean) 1,228 litre/sec The multiple non-linear regression equation gen- ond step consists of the models used to analyze A relationship was derived between pre- A good correlation between the simulated Maximum runoff (estimated) 80,00-10,000 (13.08.2002) litre/sec erally is of the form (Jaya Rami Reddy 2013): the inputs. The last or output step consists cipitation, soil moisture and discharge, con- and measured specific discharge is observed for of the predicted values or results, i.e. present sidering days when precipitation was greater the range of 0-13 mm. In contrast, greater uncer- day discharge. than 0.1 mm, and using daily soil moisture data tainty is associated with discharge above 13 mm, Y = b X b1 X b2 … X bp (2) 0 1 2 p The validation strategy was used to cre- and discharge values for previous days. During due to the small number of precipitation events ate statistically robust results from 100 ran- 2001-2009, 1,804 days were observed to have within 13-61 mm (only 6 events).

where b0, b1, …, bp are the parameters of the domly chosen subsets, in order to quantify a precipitation value of more than 0.1 mm per High uncertainty indicates a high demand non-linear relationship. Multiple non-linear re- the impact of extremes in the prediction. day. In order to reduce random errors from us- for data and a small and responsive character- gression problems can be linearized using simple Performance indices were used to compare ing linear regression only once, the 1,804 events ization of the catchment area. Under such con- logarithmic transformation by taking the loga- the performance of both models, namely with precipitation values, rainfall-runoff, and soil ditions, it is difficult to predict any extremes. Fig. 2. Modelling process rithms of both sides of equation (2) (Jaya Rami the coefficient of determination (4), the root moisture were randomly divided into two halves The discharge value in the Wernersbach Reddy 2013): mean square error (RMSE) (5) and the mean 100 times. catchment depends primarily on precipitation. work of artificial drainage trenches has been ity analysis, evaluating the multi-correlation absolute percentage error (MAPE) (6). According to the results of the calibration A close relationship between all three param- constructed (Bernhofer 2002). function between rainfall and runoff, soil and validation data sets, the median R2 value for eters is exhibited. A significant input from lnY = lnb + b lnX + b lnX + … + b lnX (3) The natural conditions of the Wernersbach moisture and the precipitation of a hydrolog- 0 1 1 2 2 p p both data sets was observed as 0.887. This indi- the soil moisture parameter can be observed (4) catchment make it a suitable study area for ical catchment area. cates a strong correlation between the consid- during events with high discharge values.

the quantification and measurement of the wa- An MLF neural network consists of neu- Moreover, the regression of lnY on lnX1, ered variables. In addition, both data sets exhib- Using the median absolute deviation (MAD)

ter balance in space and time. The water bal- rons that are ordered into layers. The first lnX2, …, lnXp is utilized for estimating b0, b1, …, bp. it the same distribution shape (Figs. 4 and 5) for method (Leys et al. 2013), 198 precipitation ance components of the catchment are pre- layer is denoted as the input layer, the last the determined R2 values. events were determined as “outliers” or bankful (5) sented in Table 1. layer is the output layer, and the layers in be- 2.3. MODEL VERIFICATION The logarithmic linear dependence can be discharge. These events suggest a rise in dis-

56 This study uses climate and hydrological tween are hidden layers (Svozil et al. 1997). A statistical evaluation method can pro- expressed as follows: charge and flood, or high flood, events. Here, 57 data from the Wernersbach catchment collect- The model used in this study, present- vide an indication of the best model, while we denote them as extreme events. ed from 2001 to 2009. All data was initially ed in Figure 2, has one hidden layer with the graphical and hydrological interpretation lnQ = 0.228 lnQ + 0.002 Sw + Following its successful launch, the ANN mod- (6) (0) (–1) (–1) (7) stored on-site in data loggers and has a temporal a sigmoidal activation function, and a line- of the presented datasets and models can eval- 0.9 lnP(0) – 0.215 el was validated. The MLR and ANN models’ resolution of one day. Field observation meas- ar activation function in the output layer. uate this simplistic indication. Based on their results are assessed with a statistical representation

urements used for the runoff models include The network is prepared using a simple error soundness and robustness, traditional log-log In the above equations, yi represents the ob- where Q represents discharge, Sw represents soil of the histograms and Q-Q plots. The data in both the depth to groundwater table, precipitation, backpropagation algorithm. rating curves have been observed to be superior, served water discharge, represents the forecast- moisture, P represents precipitation, the indices models runs are with and without extremes soil moisture at 30 and 60 cm and discharge. regardless of their poor goodness-of-fit statistics ed water discharage, represents the average 0 and –1 denote the current and previous day (the 198 events described earlier were excluded). 2.2. REGRESSION ANALYSIS (Abrahart et al. 2011). observed water discharge and average predicted respectively. Based on this, different scenarios are analyzed. 2.1. ARTIFICIAL The regression analysis in its simplest form water discharge respectively, and n represents The resultant model is characterized A perfect bell-shaped curve representing NEURAL NETWORK uses two variables, one as the dependent vari- 2.4. AREAL PRECIPITATION the number of observations in both calibration by the values of the selected performance indi- a normal distribution is observed where the al- ANN technology is a computational approach able and the other as the independent varia- The Thiessen polygon method introduced and validation stages. ces presented in Table 3. located dataset does not include extreme values. 2 inspired by studies of the brain and nervous ble, thus making it possible to study the cause by Thiessen (1911), is used here to determine The R-squared (R ) value was used to meas- In Figure 6, Qmod represents the modelled The non-linear characteristic of the rainfall-run-

systems (Luk et al. 2001). The ANN technique and effect of the relationship. A linear regression the average amount of precipitation over the study ure how close the data is to the fitted regression specific discharge, whileQ obs represents the ob- off process is normalized using a logarithmic has a number of interconnected processing model that involves more than one independent area. It is a graphical technique that calculates areas line. It provides information on the strength served specific discharge. Both values are con- transformation. This transformation is applied elements that generally operate in parallel variable is known as a multiple linear regression relating to specifically placed rain gauges, deriving of the linear relationships between the observed verted to mm, in order to have the same units in order to provide an improved fit of the with regular configurations. These neural net- (MLR) model. Multiple regression analysis an areal value plus a reference, resulting in poly- and predicted values. Moreover, the RMSE as precipitation and soil moisture. The conver- R2 values to the normal distribution (Fig. 9). works are capable of modelling both linear is used to establish the statistical relationship gons within polygons (see Fig. 3). (5) represents the prediction of the errors sion to discharge involves multiplying the spe- The MAPE value is observed as 153% for and non-linear systems (Riad et al. 2004). between one dependent variable and one in the model. cific discharge by the size of the Wernersbach the MLR model and 140% for the ANN mod-

There are two types of artificial neural or more independent variables X1, X2, …, Xp 3. GENERAL STUDY All analysis was performed using the R pro- catchment. The black line in Figure 6 represents el. The MAPE errors demonstrate that the ANN networks: (i) the feed-forward neural net- and is of the form (1) (Jaya Rami Reddy 2013) APPROACH gramming package. The Neuralnet R package the trend line without considering the extreme model has a smaller variance in predic- work; (ii) recurrent/feedback networks. the multiple regression equation. The term lin- We assume an ideal prognosis using the observed was used for the ANN model. For the MLR values, while the green line represents the trend tion errors than the MLR model compared The multi-layer field network (MLF) is a typ- ear is used because equation (1) is a linear func- precipitation and soil moisture data. This ideal prog- model, an in-house script was written. The ANN line when extreme values are considered. to the original dataset scale.

ical feed-forward network where adjusted tion of the unknown parameters b0, b1, …, bp: nosis of the meteorological input allows us to neglect model exhibited higher computing times due The trend lines demonstrate a consistency We find that both models overestimate the sim- weight coefficients are calculated and out- prognosis uncertainties, which are mostly connect- to the training of the neural network. One catch- in the observed maximum values, particularly ulated values. The dataset validation with extreme puts are highly accurate (Svozil et al. 1997). ed to modelled precipitation from dynamic weath- ment at a time was used for both models due for the validation data set. Both data sets suggest values for the MLR model is equal to 14%, while Y = b + b X + b X + … + b X (1) A very simple model based on historical data, 0 1 1 2 2 p p er forecast models. Therefore, the resulting model to the minimal amount of computer resources that the model tends to slightly overestimate high the ANN model demonstrates a lower error value namely, drawing a line to best separate be- performances are mainly defined by the approaches required for the MLR (statistical) and the ANN flood events by 1.01% and 14% for the validation of 0.7% for the dataset validation with extreme tween critical and non-critical conditions, In non-linear regression analysis, the depend- themselves, rather than by accuracy of the data. (data-driven). The model ensembles were then and the calibration data sets, respectively. values and 0.5% without extremes values. is used for the MLF. The possible applications ent variables are modelled as a non-linear func- The basic architecture of the approach used used to identify the best estimate for a flood The range of predicted errors between The above result implies that the ANN of this model include flash flood susceptibil- tion of the model parameters and one or more in this study is presented in Figure 2. The three event. the simulated value and the measured values model better generalizes the variability of high Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Data-driven discharge analysis: a case study for the Wernersbach catchment, Germany Volume 8 | Issue 1 Eklavyya Popat, Alexey Kuleshov, Rico Kronenberg, Christian Bernhofer

in the models, depending on the availabil- ity of the measured input. In the typical da- ta-poor conditions that characterize flash flood forecasting and warnings, surrogate indexes that implicitly consider the soil moisture ini- tial state, are often extremely useful.

5. CONCLUSION a) ANN normal In this study, we investigate an approach incorporating data-driven modelling for the Wernersbach catchment with three ob- served parameters: (i) soil moisture, (ii) pre- cipitation of the current day and (iii) precip- itation from the previous day. An alternative model is run to compare and validate the re- Fig. 7. Dependencies between the simulated and the measured values for the validation data set sults. Both models are on loop fast enough of the statistical regression model to include several statistical analysis methods, with an efficiency in forecasting results for time stringent cases. Based on the catchment characteristics, the model based on regression analysis is determined as a more effective sta- tistical method for the estimation of flood b) ANN model run over logarithm discharge compared to other methods. A more detailed alternative approach would involve the use of hydraulic formulae (e.g. Man- ning equation) or one- or two-dimensional hy-

58 draulic models (e.g. the Saint-Venant equations) 59 to convert historical flood levels into historical discharges (Benito et al. 2004). Moreover, flash flood guidance, which tags the rainfall accu- mulation needed to produce a flood of a given magnitude according to current soil moisture conditions, has proven useful for ungauged ba- sins (Borga et al. 2011). For the Wernersbach catchment area, our results show that data-driven methods are a fea- c) MLR normal sible alternative to the flash flood guidance ap- proach. the ANN model is generally preferable, even for extreme events, compared to the MLR approach. However, the considered temporal scale (2001-2009) do not include significant amount of past major hydrological extreme events and exclusion of uncertainties by cli- Fig. 8. Box plot showing the range of errors between the simulated and measured values for the sta- mate change limits our study in various as- tistical regression model pects. Despite these limitations, we are confi- dent ANN model is better suited to the tasks floods in the observation period compared and considering studies for an earlier initiation of rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting over Fig. 9a-c. Distribution of R2 and Q-Q plots: a) Including extreme data for the ANN model run; b) including extreme data for the ANN model run; c) including to the MLR regression model. The results from of the snowmelt season (Schneider, Schönbein traditional MLR approach. extreme data for the MLR model run the former can be considered more satisfacto- 2005; Blöschl et al. 2017), increases the dura- Nevertheless, as per our current knowledge, ry over the whole period, with a large annual tion of the snowmelt season. Thus, it is impor- this study is the only one of its kind done over variability of extreme events. The estimates are tant to include snow/ice –melt and temperature the Wernersbach catchment and is presumed sufficient to provide on-time warnings with in the models in order to provide near real-time to build foundation for further application minimal errors. forecasts. This will be duly addressed in our fu- of ANN models in research focusing on the in- The snowmelt factor was not considered ture and on-going studies. fluence of spatial and temporal rainfall patterns as influential in this study. However, in- Soil moisture is often found to have a trig- on the estimation of rainfall thresholds, as well cluding climate change as a driving factor gering influence on floods and is included as the prediction of soil moisture. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Data-driven discharge analysis: a case study for the Wernersbach catchment, Germany Volume 8 | Issue 1 Eklavyya Popat, Alexey Kuleshov, Rico Kronenberg, Christian Bernhofer

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• Rezaeianzadeh M., Tabari H., Arabi Yazdi A., • Solomatine D.P., Avila Torres L.A., 1996, Neu- • Svozil D., Kvasnicka V., Pospichal J., 1997, In- Isik S., Kalin L., 2014, Flood flow forecasting ral network approximation of a hydrodynam- troduction to multi-layer feed-forward neural using ANN, ANFIS and regression models, ic model in optimizing reservoir operation, networks, Chemometrics and Intelligent Lab- Neural Computing and Applications, 25 (1), [in:] Proceedings of the International Con- oratory Systems, 39 (1), 43-62, DOI: 10.1016/ 25-37, DOI: 10.1007/s00521-013-1443-6 ference on Hydroinformatics, Zurich, 1996, S0169-7439(97)00061-0 • Riad S., Mania J., Bouchaou L., Najjar Y., 2004, 201-206, available at https://www.un-ihe.org/ • Thiessen A.H., 1911, Precipitation aver- Rainfall-runoff model using an artificial neural sites/default/files/solomatinetorresann-ap- ages for large areas, Monthly Weath- network approach, Mathematical and Com- prox-reserv-opthic-1996.pdf (data access er Review, 39 (7), 1082-1084, DOI: puter Modelling, 40 (7-8), 839-846, DOI: 18.09.2019) 10.1175/1520-0493(1911)39<1082b:PAFLA>2.0. 10.1016/j.mcm.2004.10.012 • Solomatine D.P., See L.M., Abrahart R.J., 2008, CO;2 • Schneider C., Schönbein J., 2005, Climato- Data-driven modelling: concepts, approaches • Vernieuwe H., Georgieva O., De Baets B., Pau- logical analysis of snow reliability and snow- and experiences, [in:] Practical hydroinfor- wels V., Verhoest N., De Troch F., 2005, Com- making of winter sports resorts in German matics, R.J. Abrahart, L.M. See, D.P. Soloma- parison of data-driven Takagi-Sugeno models low mountain ranges, (in German), Institute tine (eds.), Water Science and Technology of rainfall-discharge dynamics, Journal of Hy- of Nature Sports and Ecology, German Sport Library, 68, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 17-30, drology, 302 (1-4), 173-186, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhy- University Cologne, 37 pp. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-79881-1_2 drol.2004.07.001 • Schulla J., 1997, Hydrologische Modellierung • Sudheer K.P., Jain S.K., 2003, Radial basis • Yao X., Liu Y., 1997, A new evolutionary system von Flussgebieten zur Abschätzung der Fol- function neural network for modeling rating for evolving artificial neural networks, IEEE gen von Klimaänderungen, Doctoral Thesis, curves, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Transactions on Neural Networks, 8 (3), 694- Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zu- 8 (3), 161-164, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)1084- 713, DOI: 10.1109/72.572107 rich, 154 pp., DOI:10.3929/ethz-a-001763261 0699(2003)8:3(161)

62 Photo by Artem Sapegin on Unsplash Artem by Photo Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Rainwater harvesting scenarios and its prospective in Pakistan Volume 8 | Issue 1 Talat Farid Ahmed, Shamim Ul Sibtain Shah, Muhammad Attiqullah Khan, Muhammad Azeem Afzal, Ashfaq Ahmed Sheikh

1. INTRODUCTION ious forms, in most of the world. Allowance means annual rainfall was selected. Water scarcity is growing in many parts of rainwater runoff from the upper reaches It was found that rainwater could be harvested of the world and urban centers are most af- and collection at lower reaches is called catch- at a rate of 74.0 m3 per annum per household. fected. Water is a major input for the existence ment-based harvesting. This is carried out The water demand for laundry and flushing of life on the earth. Increased population by storing rainwater from rooftops in small was 21.6 and 29.4 m3 per annum, respective- growth, agricultural expansion, urbanization, dams or ponds. System design is based ly. It was concluded that this amount of har- and industrialization have resulted in the de- on the catchment area, conveyance system, vested rainwater could be enough for monthly pletion of available water resources in Pakistan. and water storage facility. household water demand for WC flushing The gap between water demand and supply has Sazakli et al. (2017) conducted a study and laundry, except for the months of Novem- increased rapidly. Surface water shortage im- to assess the 12 Jordanian governorates’ resi- ber through February. However, storage of ex- pacted nearly 50% of canal supplies during dential sectors for potential potable water sav- cess rainwater during September and October the most recent drought period, which lasted ings utilizing RWH. They further gave sug- would be ample to supplement the short fall from 1998-2002 (Kahlown, Ashraf 2002). gestions and recommendations for improving in drier months. Results showed that potential Based on the current population growth rate, the quality and quantity of RWH. Their find- water savings was highest in June and Septem- there is projected to be a 31% shortage of wa- ings showed that 5.6% of the total domestic ber (Aladenola, Adeboye 2010). Rainwater harvesting scenarios ter in the year 2025, which will increase sig- water supply in 2005 was harvested using A research study was started in the UK nificantly through 2050 (Sheikh 2017). this technique. Samples Analysis revealed to compare estimated and actual perfor- and its prospective in Pakistan The situation is putting pressure that inorganic compounds in harvested water mance of RWH systems by using calculations on groundwater resources resulting in a con- were in line with WHO standards for drink- and simulation-based approaches (Ward et al. tinuous draw-down of aquifers, with asso- ing purposes. However, the main bacteriolog- 2012). A RWH system located in an office Talat Farid Ahmed, Shamim Ul Sibtain Shah, Muhammad Attiqullah Khan, Muhammad Azeem Afzal National Agricultural Research Centre, Park Road, 44000 Islamabad, Pakistan, e-mail: [email protected] ciated deterioration of water quality. In Is- ical parameters exceeded the drinking water building was selected for longitudinal empir- lamabad where water supply is generally met limits (Sazakli et al. 2007). ical performance assessment. The results re- Ashfaq Ahmed Sheikh Pakistan Engineering Council, Attaturk Avenue (East) G-5/2, P.O. Box: 1296, Islamabad Pakistan from surface storage, 170 public tube wells In Australia, the federal government, vealed an average measured water saving effi- are also pumping water for domestic and in- along with several states, initiated a regu- ciency of 87% for an 8-month period because DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/113689 dustrial uses. Long-term groundwater data latory mechanism for water sustainability the system was oversized for the actual occu- in Islamabad showed an average yearly de- and took steps to support households buying pancy level. Thus, a smaller tank could also

64 cline of 0.5 m in the water table (Kahlown, and setting up systems for RWH that result- be utilized for this purpose. Capital payback 65 Majeed 2002), a trend which is still continu- ed in increased RWH in regional and urban periods of 11 and 6 years were calculated for ing (PCRWR 2018). areas of the country. Potential health out- the actual over-sized tank and the smaller op- Thus, the depletion rate of the aquifer has be- comes of harvested rainwater use were also timized tank, respectively (Ward et al. 2012). come a major issue associated with the growth explored. Trace metals were found to be be- In Australia, a study was conducted to ex- of human settlements in big cities. Ground- low the health limit guideline in residential amine the sustainability of harvested rainwa- water exploitation to meet the ever-increasing areas, but not in high industrial areas. How- ter in multi-story domestic buildings under domestic and industrial water requirements ever, epidemiological evidence suggested no different scenarios (i.e., varying roof area, of the cities on a long-term basis requires as- increased risk of gastrointestinal disease from floors, water price, and interest rate), in or- surance of a sustainable supply of good quality drinking rainwater (Chubaka et al. 2018). der to categorize suitable conditions where water (Ariyabandu 1999). Such an assurance A research survey was carried out for har- RWH systems prove to be sustainable. A wa- cannot be made unless withdrawal of ground- vested rainwater from buildings in Brazil which ter balance model was developed to calculate water is replenished under a systemic artificial considered economic, environmental, and social water savings for various scenarios. It was recharge program (Kharal 2002). implications. The authors also assessed the leg- found that larger roof area improves water There is a double pronged strategy being fol- islation that would be necessary in cities where savings and financial benefits. Also, capital, lowed to manage the water resources of Paki- this practice would be mandated. The survey such as plumbing work and maintenance stan: (i) construction of new medium to large concluded that there was considerable potential costs, matter for RWH systems. It was found reservoirs, and (ii) conservation of water re- for potable water saving when using rainwater that the financial viability of a RWH sys- sources through efficient use. There is poten- in buildings (Teston et al. 2018). tem is enhanced by lower interest and in- ABSTRACT. Water is a precious commodity and water scarcity has become a serious issue in many parts of the world, especially in dense urban areas. Water tial for the construction of medium and large A research study was initiated to examine creased water price regimes. It was concluded resources are under increasing stress due to continuous population growth, agricultural development, urbanization, and industrialization. The gap between dams in the country, however, this would the applicability of RWH in urban Zambia. that it would be possible to get “pay back” water demand and supply has also increased in recent years. This has resulted in increasing pressure on underground water resources as well as the depletion involve huge investment, national consensus, Two peri-urban water stress areas were selected. from this system subject to some suggested of groundwater aquifers at an alarming rate. Thus there is a growing need to explore viable methods and techniques to manage water availability, especially and above all a considerable investment of time Mass curve analysis was used to design storage scenarios (Rahman et al. 2010). in urban areas. The objective of the current study was to determine the potential for rainwater harvesting (RWH) in the twin cities of Islamabad and Riwalpindi. (PCRWR 2018). The other options that can for the system and a rational formula was uti- In the United States, an analysis was done We evaluated its suitability to supplement the water supply as well as contribute to groundwater recharge and flood control efforts. This could in turn be adopted are appropriate water conservation lized for designing gutters. Tests of water sam- in 23 cities from seven different climatic re- help to overcome water demand, could potentially recharge depleting groundwater resources and could result in the development of a currently untapped technologies and the use of non-conventional ples from this system revealed that the water was gions to determine the performance of do- additional water source for urban hubs. water resources such as rainwater harvesting. drinkable (Handia et al. 2003). mestic RWH systems. The considered sys- RWH is defined as the process of collecting Another survey was conducted in Nigeria tems aimed to both improve water supply KEYWORDS: rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge, water supply. natural precipitation from prepared catch- where climate change is already impacting wa- to residential parcels and to reduce storm ments for beneficial use. It is an ancient prac- ter supply. Harvested rainwater is the only alter- water runoff from housing drainage catch- SUBMITTED: 2 December 2018 | REVISED: 16 April 2019 | ACCEPTED: 4 November 2019 tice that has been used in various times, in var- native in this situation. A city with 1,156 mm ments. The results showed that performance Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Rainwater harvesting scenarios and its prospective in Pakistan Volume 8 | Issue 1 Talat Farid Ahmed, Shamim Ul Sibtain Shah, Muhammad Attiqullah Khan, Muhammad Azeem Afzal, Ashfaq Ahmed Sheikh

is a function of climatic patterns and cistern Given the water situation in urban areas, (90% covered areas), with 80% collection Table 1. Water availability and demand in Pakistan (Sheikh 2017) size. Overall, the results suggested that U.S. and the need to meet future water demand, efficiency, is given in Table 3, on a monthly Year 2004 (BCM) 2025 (BCM) cities could get benefits from RWH, both research efforts are being focused on expand- and annual basis. The annual water require- Water availability (including drinking water) 128 128 as a means of storm water control and as an al- ing RWH techniques in urban areas. For ment for a family of 6 people, at the rate Requirement (including drinking water) 142 142 ternative source of water (Steffen et al. 2013). this purpose, the current case study was con- of 0.1 m3 per head, is 248.7 m3. The to- Overall shortfall 11% 31% ducted in the twin cities of Pakistan – Islam- tal available water from a house of 418 m2 2. WATER SITUATION abad and Rawalpindi – with the main objective is 319 m3, this requirement therefore could Table 2. Plot sizes in Islamabad IN PAKISTAN of exploring RWH potential in urban areas. easily be met from rainwater. Plot sizes in m2 The geographical area of Pakistan is 79,610,000 1,672.26 1,003.35 836.13 551.84 501.68 297.29 227.6 167.23 116.13 74.32 km2 lying between 30.3753°N and 69.3451°E. 2.2. RWH POTENTIAL 3. GROUNDWATER Pakistan has an average annual precipitation IN TWIN CITIES RECHARGE BY RWH Table 3. Monthly availability of rainwater for a house on an average of around 200 mm, but in northern areas it ex- Islamabad and Rawalpindi are twin cities with Generally, about 20% of rainwater perco- plot size of 418 m2 Average rain % of annual Rooftop rainwa- Total rainwater for a ceeds 1000 mm. About 50% of rainfall occurs just a highway separating them. Both cities, lates into the ground to recharge the aquifer. Month [mm] rainfall ter [m3] house of 418 m2 [m3] during the monsoon season (July to Septem- combined with Taxila and other adjoining areas, This percentage is being further reduced in Pa- Jan 56.1 4.91 8.70 15.7 ber). Once a water surplus country having form Islamabad/Rawalpindi (Fig. 3). kistan by deforestation, increased urbanization, Feb 73.5 6.44 11.86 21.3 5,600 m3 per capita in 1950, Pakistan has Islamabad, the federal capital of Pakistan, and road and pavement construction, among Mar 89.8 7.86 13.93 25.1 turned into a water deficit country with current is spread over an area of 906 km2, out of which other causes. In Islamabad, 4.6-6.1 m draw- Apr 61.8 5.41 9.58 17.2 Fig. 3. Combined map of Islamabad and Rawalpindi cities May 39.2 3.43 6.10 10.9 per capita water availability of nearly 1,000 m3 220 km2 is urban area. The total population down occurs every year due to unplanned ex- Jun 62.2 5.45 9.60 17.3 (Sheikh 2017). The water resources of Pakistan of both cities (Islamabad and Rawalpindi) tractions by the current tube wells in Islamabad Jul 267 23.38 41.2 74.1 are under great stress as a result of agricultural in 1998 was 0.53 million and 1.4 million, re- and the growth in the number of tube wells Aug 310 27.15 48.00 86.5 and population growth, and associated urban- spectively. This has grown to 1.01 million in Rawalpindi, as shown in Figure 6 and Figure Sep 98.2 8.60 15.22 27.5 ization and industrialization. Based on the cur- and 2.1 million as per recent cesus of 2017 (GoP 7, respectively. This in turn causes: Oct 29.3 2.57 4.54 8.2 rent population growth rate and declining 2017). Elevation ranges from 457 m to 1,604 • short surface supplies, exerting great stress Nov 17.8 1.56 2.70 4.9 Dec 37.3 3.27 5.75 10.4 per capita water availability, the gap between m. Its density is 880 people/km². The water on groundwater resources; Total 1,142.2 100.00 177.21 319.0 water demand and supply is growing rapidly table ranges from 45.72 m to 121.92 m on av- • a continuous increase in groundwater utili- as shown in Figure 1 and further substantiated erage but is depleting day-by-day and exploita- zation;

66 in Table 1. tion of groundwater is becoming comparatively • a falling water table in 26 out of 43 canal 67 expensive. The major sources of water supply commands; 2.1. RAINWATER of these cities are Rawal and Simly Lakes. There • and a continuously declining water table HARVESTING (RWH) are several contaminant sources, including hospi- in major cities. POTENTIAL tal waste, poultry waste, and sewerage of catch- On the basis of long-term average annual rain- ment areas, which have compromised water qual- There are several methods of artificial ground- Fig. 4. Monthly average rainfall pattern for Islamabad and Rawalpindi falls, Pakistan has significant potential for RWH ity and safety (PCRWR 2016). Unhygienic water water recharge, including injection wells, ditches, (source: Pakistan Meteorological Department; heaviest rainfall of 23 July from various sources including irrigated areas, is one of the root causes of disease in the area. soakways, delay action dams, and leaky dams. 2001 not included) rainfed areas, desert areas, coastal areas, and hill Simly and Rawal Lakes are therefore also not cost It is however, necessary to evaluate the appropri- torrents as shown in Figure 2. The utilization effective. Islamabad and Rawalpindi are among ate technologies of RWH in order to rejuvenate of this potential water source, with efficient the few cities in Pakistan that receive per annum depleting fresh water aquifers. The effective im- techniques, can help overcome water shortage precipitation in the range of 950-1,100 mm. plementation of appropriate artificial recharge in the country, as well as help conserve natural The monthly trend based on the long-term re- techniques, in conjunction with RWH, would resources and ecosystems. In rainfed areas such cord (1961-1990) is evidence of that, as shown help sustainable management of groundwater, as Pothwar, the total rainwater potential is about in Figure 4. as well as the water resources of the country Fig. 1. Population growth vs. non-agricultural water demand (PWP 2000) 4.3 billion cubic meter (BCM), out of which Rainwater can successfully supplement as a whole. Depleting aquifers may be recharged only 0.1 BCM is being harvested and utilized. water supplies in these cities and many other by utilizing RWH efficiently by adopting tech- The rest is leaving the area without benefiting similar areas. This source of water is free from niques of inverted well or soakways. the local communities. Similarly, there is great harmful environmental effects and may help Fig. 5. Daily water supply from various sources to Islamabad potential in Pakistan for rooftop RWH especial- in sustainable development. Present water 3.1. AQUIFER RESTORATION (source: Capital Development Authority) ly in metropolitan areas. Presently, this is one demand is 0.775 MCM per day from Simly WITH INVERTED WELLS of the most underutilized approaches to water and Khanpur Dams. There are an additional Inverted wells are essentially pumped wells in re- resource development in the country. 193 tubewells in Islamabad. The maximum verse as the water enters the aquifer over a small Different research organizations in Paki- water supply capacity to the city is 0.370 MCM area. Recharge/injection wells are used where stan are actively involved in developing tech- per day as shown in Figure 5, and can drop the cost of land is very high, such as in urban niques and methods for RWH in various parts to 0.264 MCM per day, resulting in a short- areas, or the aquifer to be recharged is deep and/ of the country. These organizations have made sig- age to the tune of 0.467 MCM per day. or limited. In operation, it is essentially the oppo- nificant progress in improving designs for RWH The normal size of residential plots site of groundwater abstraction, thus a recharge in urban and desert areas, in order to provide in Islamabad (Table 2) ranges from 74.32 m2 mound forms rather than a cone of depression drinking water to human populations and live- to 1,672.26 m2. The volume of rainwater when pumping. These systems are susceptible Fig. 2. Pakistan-RWH potential (source: Proceedings of Regional Ground- stock, as well as recharge depleting aquifers. available for a typical house of 418 m2 to clogging by suspended solids in the inject- water Management Seminar, October 9-11.2000 Islamabad) Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Rainwater harvesting scenarios and its prospective in Pakistan Volume 8 | Issue 1 Talat Farid Ahmed, Shamim Ul Sibtain Shah, Muhammad Attiqullah Khan, Muhammad Azeem Afzal, Ashfaq Ahmed Sheikh

5. RECOMMENDATIONS/ g. Water charging ponds in open spaces, dams [in:] Proceedings of the SAARC workshop CONCLUSIONS and check dams in nullahs, and distribu- on drought and water management strategies, a. The annual runoff in the Potohar re- taries, should be constructed. These ponds 16-18 September 2002, Lahore, Pakistan, 47-57 gion is 4.32 BCM, but only a fraction will store water for emergency and recharg- • Kahlown M.A., Majeed A., 2002, Water sta- of this is being harvested. Numerous dam ing of ground water. Fatima Jinnah Park tus and management is Pakistan, [in:] Water sites have been identified in the Islamabad and the green belts astride main roads in Is- and new technologies, I. Ahmed (ed.), Global and Rawalpindi area, but in the past sev- lamabad are ideal places to harvest rainwater Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad eral decades, no rainwater storage dams by making water ponds or recharging wells. • Kharal L., 2002, Artificial recharge of ground- have been constructed in the twin cities. h. The water saving techniques given in this pa- water by injection well, [in:] 28th WEDC Con- The existing dam sites should be prioritized per are being successfully applied in other ference: Sustainable Environmental Sanitation and new dam sites should also be identified. countries. We need to encourage our peo- and Water Services, Calcutta, India, avail- Construction of new dams should be giv- ple to use them. All government buildings able at file:///C:/Users/rstepnowski/Desktop en top priority in the Annual Development should have these techniques incorporated Kharal.pdf (data access 08.11.2019) Program and construction of at least one into their design and construction. • Liaqat A., 2002, Rainwater harvesting in urban dam per year should be mandatory by each i. It is a very common sight to see people using areas, The Corps of Engineers Journal, Military Fig. 6. Yearly trend of ground water depletion in Islamabad Fig. 7. Yearly trend of tube well increase in Rawalpindi of these two cities. high quality municipal water for uses such as wa- College of Engineering, Risalpur, Pakistan (source: PCRWR 2016, 2018) (source: Water and Sanitation Agency, Rawalpindi) b. Rooftop RWH must be made obligatory for tering of lawns or washing cars. Although there • PWP, 2000, Framework for Action for Achiev- all citizens of Islamabad and those people are laws to punish the culprits, the fine is so mi- ing the Pakistan Water Vision 2025, Pakistan of Rawalpindi who live on a plot of 418 m2 nor that it does not deter people. Municipal laws Water Partnership, 75 pp. or more. All government buildings must in- must be amended and these fines should be in- • PCRWR, 2016, Water quality status of major stall RWH systems. Construction of RWH creased by a substantial amount. cities of Pakistan 2015-16, Pakistan Council systems should be made part of the building j. A mass campaign on TV, radio, and print of Research in Water Resources, Islamabad, bylaws. media should be launched to create aware- available at http://www.pcrwr.gov.pk/publica- c. Subsidies may be given to tenants who ness of RWH, recycling of water, and water tion.php?view_quality (data access 08.11.2019) adopts RWH techniques via property taxes. saving techniques. • PCRWR, 2018, Water situation in Islamabad, In Japan subsidy is given to people to install Pakistan Council of Research in Water Re- sources, Islamabad, available at www.pcrwr. 68 RWH systems. In Australia special loans are NOTATIONS 69 provided by banks for RWH. RWH – Rainwater harvesting; UNEP – United gov.pk (data access 08.11.2019) d. Penalties may be imposed on residents who Nation Environment Program; MCM – Mil- • Rahman A., Dbais J., Imteaz M.A., 2010, Sus- Fig. 8. Surface run-off of Islamabad and Leh catchment area dispose of rainwater into storm drainage. lion Cubic Meter; BCM – Billion Cubic Me- tainability of rainwater harvesting systems In Bon, Germany, households pay a special ter; CDA – Capital Development Authority; in multistorey residential buildings, American ed water. Afforestation and vegetative measures 3.3. GREEN BELTS FOR catchment, assuming 50% efficiency, is shown tax depending upon the amount of storm m2 – square meter; TV – Television; TW – Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, in the catchment are necessary to control sedi- GROUNDWATER in the Figure 8. water they allow into a storm water drain. Tubewell; GoP – Government of Pakistan. 3 (1), 73-82, DOI: 10.3844/ajeassp.2010.73.82 mentation. RECHARGING Figure 8 shows about 130.24 MCM e. There is currently no control on the ex- • Sazakli E., Alexopoulos A., Leotsinidis M., Green belts, which are 91.44 meter by 182.88 of runoff per year is generated by Nullah Leh; traction of groundwater and there are no REFERENCES 2007, Rainwater harvesting, quality assess- 3.2. AQUIFER REVIVAL meter wide, and are positioned astride roads, this quantity is enough to supply water to Is- bylaws which restrict or control the pump- • Ariyabandu R.S., 1999, Water security through ment and utilization in Kefalonia Island, WITH SOAKWAYS can be used for easy groundwater recharge lamabad for one year at the rate of 0.37 million ing out of ground water. It should be rainwater harvesting, [in:] 25th WEDC Confer- Greece, Water Research, 41 (9), 2039-2047, Soakways are another method of artificial ground- as well. Natural depressions in these green m3 per day. Capturing and storing rainwater compulsory for every agency that extracts ence on integrated development for water supply DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2007.01.037 water recharge. This method consists of per- belts can store rainwater. By considering for use is particularly important in dry lands, groundwater to construct recharging wells and sanitation, Addis Abba, Ethiopia,166-168 • Sheikh A.A., 2017, Technological gaps and in- meable materials located below ground to store an average storage of 100 m × 100 m × 10 m hilly, urban, and coastal areas. Humans can in order to recharge the aquifer by har- • Aladenola O.O., Adeboye O.B., 2010, Assessing novation endeavours relating safe and sustain- runoff, which is utilized for flow to ground water. (100,000 cum) per km for 280 km long survive hunger for several weeks if the body vesting rainwater. The recharging systems the potential for rainwater harvesting, Water able water in developing countries, Asia-Pacif- The permeable surface can be grassed or graveled greenbelts, it would be possible to store possesses sufficient reserves. Lack of water, should be designed so that the amount Resources Management, 24 (10), 2129-2137, ic Tech Monitor, 34 (3), 14-22 areas, paving blocks with vertical voids built in, 280×100,000 or 28 MCM. As an exam- however, will lead to certain death within days, of recharge is at least equal to the amount DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9542-y • Steffen J., Jensen M., Pomeroy C.A., Burian or paving blocks with gaps between individual ple, the green belt south of Shaker Parian as the body cannot retain any water reserves. of ground water extracted during the year. • Chubaka C.E., Whiley H., Edwards J.W., Ross S.J., 2013, Water supply and stormwater man- units. Water is therefore collected from a large sur- and sports complex, which is equal to one Therefore, we must take stock of the situation Necessary byelaws are needed to restrict K.E., 2018, A review of roof harvested rain- agement benefits of residential rainwater har- face area, stored in the filter drains, and allowed sector of 2 km by 2 km, would be capable and adopt innovative methods and techniques extraction of ground water. Concerned water in Australia, Journal of Environmental vesting in US cities, Journal of the American to infiltrate through the soil. Soakways trap sedi- of storing 2000×2000×10, or 40 MCM (Li- to store and conserve water. agencies should have a record of each tube and Public Health, DOI: 10.1155/2018/6471324 Water Resources Association, 49 (4), 810-824, ments and thereby clean the run-off. It is essential aqat 2002). Many countries of the world have realized well in their area and the residential units • GoP, 2017, Census of Pakistan, Government DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12038 that the surface is kept clear of silt and cleaned the importance of RWH and are successfully that have installed water pumps/electric of Pakistan, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, http:// • Teston A., Geraldi M.S., Colasio B.M., Ghisi regularly to keep the voids clear. 4. RWH FOR FLOOD benefiting from it. Before the situation becomes motors to extract ground water. www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-census E., 2018, Rainwater harvesting in buildings In order to develop the above-defined (3.1 & PREVENTION worse and the minimum water required for es- f. As part of building bylaws, residents should • Handia L., Tembo J.M., Mwiindwa C., 2003, Po- in Brazil: a literature review, Water, 10 (4), DOI: 3.2) techniques, the catchments of different sites IN RAWALPINDI sential needs is not available, we must evolve have separate water disposal systems for sew- tential of rainwater harvesting in urban Zam- 10.3390/w10040471 in Islamabad would need to be surveyed for these The catchment area of Nullah Leh is 238 km2, innovative methods of saving water and supple- age water and other grey water (e.g., wash ba- bia, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts • Ward S., Memon F.A., Butler D., 2012, Perfor- purposes. Then necessary diversions, if required, while the Islamabad Territory area is 908 km2, menting our existing water resources by harvest- sin, kitchen). Sewage water may be drained A/B/C, 28 (20-27), 893-896, DOI: 10.1016/j. mance of a large building rainwater harvesting would need to be developed to direct rainwater to- from which surface runoff is generated during ing rainwater. The following recommendations to a treatment plant for agricultural and irri- pce.2003.08.016 system, Water Research, 46 (16), 5127-5134, wards the points in the catchment where inverted the rainy season. The monthly and total run- are made with special reference to Rawalpindi gation purposes, whereas other water can be • Kahlown M.A., Ashraf M., 2002, Water man- DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2012.06.043 wells or soakways would be implemented. off generated in the entire Islamabad and Leh and Islamabad. used for lower quality water uses. agement strategies under drought conditions, Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Application of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava Volume 8 | Issue 1 Borys Khrystiuk, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek

1. INTRODUCTION etc., also known as simplified methods. Mod- and the use of researcher intuition. The Weng The Danube River is closely linked to the eco- ern hydrological forecasting often uses a va- Wen-Bo method was successfully used for fore- nomic, social, political, and spiritual spheres riety of mathematical models (WMO 2009). casting the dates of several large earthquakes of public life in 19 European countries, All these approaches are quantitative methods in China, Japan, and the USA; wet and dry which are wholly or partly located in its basin. of forecasting. In general, for the Danube River years in the Songhua River Basin; and the floods It is the water transport artery connecting Cen- basin, simplified methods and a stochastic ap- in northeast China (Hongyan et al. 2011; Su, tral Europe with the Balkans, the Black Sea, proach have been used for long-term forecasting Hu 2015; Peng et al. 2017). and the Middle East (Pekárová et al. 2014). (for periods exceeding 10 days) (Pekárová et al. The objective of this paper is to use the Weng The mechanical energy of the streamflow is con- 2007; Khrystyuk 2014; Komma et al. 2017; Wen-Bo information method for long-term verted into electrical energy at 18 hydroelectric Meissner et al. 2017). However, quantitative forecasting of floods and determination Application stations on the Danube River. The river is also hydrological forecasts are not as reliable as they of the most likely years in which these floods a source of potable and non-potable water need to be. The development of prognostic will occur on the Danube River at Bratislava. of the commensurability for the population, industry, and agriculture systems that would allow accurate and reliable of all the Danube countries (Khrystyuk 2013). determination of flood hazards is an impor- 2. STUDY AREA AND DATA Despite the many benefits of the river, after tant, yet difficult task for hydrologic practice The Danube is the largest river in Western method for long-term heavy rainfall or intensive snowmelt in the ba- (Pekárová et al. 2013; Blöschl et al. 2016). and Central Europe. The catchment area is sin, catastrophic floods occur periodically, with Along with quantitative forecasting methods, 817,000 km2, and the river’s length is 2,857 km. forecasting of the highest flooding of densely populated flood plains, lead- qualitative approaches have been developing The Danube basin is naturally divided into ing to property damage and sometimes losses (Hongyan et al. 2011; Su, Hu 2015; Peng et al. three parts by mountain ranges: Upper, Mid- of human lives (Böhm, Wetzel 2006; Romanes- 2017). One of these approaches is the commen- dle, and Lower Danube (Fig. 1). The Upper summer floods on the Danube cu, Stoleriu 2010; Pekárová et al. 2013; Rohr surability method, which the Chinese geophysi- and Middle Danube are separated by the Alps 2013; Sonnlechner et al. 2013; Pekárová et al. cist Weng Wen-Bo proposed for long-term fore- and the Carpathians; the Middle and Lower 2014; Tenk, Dávid 2015; Blöschl et al. 2016). casting of various natural phenomena (Weng Danube are separated by the Balkans and the Car- River at Bratislava Therefore, research, modeling, and forecasting 1984). This method uses the dates on which ex- pathians. Each major region of the Danube ba- of the Danube runoff have scientific and prac- treme natural phenomena (earthquakes, floods, sin is under the influence of specific air mass- Borys Khrystiuk, Liudmyla Gorbachova tical importance. droughts, etc.) were observed. For this reason, es. The Upper Danube is mainly influenced Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 37 Prospekt Nauky, 03028 Kyiv, Ukraine, e-mail: [email protected] 70 The main or traditional methods of hy- it has been called the information method. by the Atlantic and the Mediterranean air mass- 71 Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek drological forecasting are statistical methods, Weng Wen-Bo’s method is characterized by sim- es, the Middle Danube is under the influence Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences such as correlation and regression analysis, plicity of calculation, graphical visualization, of the Atlantic, continental, and Mediterranean DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/114482

ABSTRACT. This paper reports the use of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava. Bratislava is the capital of the Slovak Republic, as well as its major administrative and industrial centre. In the past, Bratislava has suffered from dangerous floods. The highest floods have occurred most frequently in the summer. Consequently, long-term forecasting of summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava Fig. 1. The Danube River Basin has important scientific and practical significance. We used the dates of the highest summer floods for the period 1876-2018, as well as historical information about the highest summer floods that occurred before the beginning of regular hydrometric observations. The commensurability method supports prediction of various natural phenomena, including floods and other dangerous events. It is characterized by the simplicity of the calculations and minimum needs for input information. Four methods of forecasting were used: (1) the calculated value of commensurability; (2) the two-dimensional and three-dimensional graphs of commensurability; (3) the time intervals between floods that have occurred in the past; and (4) the number of commensurability equations with three components. The results indicate that the highest summer floods are likely to occur on the Danube at Bratislava in 2020, 2025, and 2030.

KEYWORDS: Flood, long-term forecasting, Weng Wen-Bo method, commensurability.

SUBMITTED: 15 April 2019 | REVISED: 29 August 2019 | ACCEPTED: 21 November 2019 Fig. 2. Illustration of the Titius-Bode Law Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Application of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava Volume 8 | Issue 1 Borys Khrystiuk, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek

air masses, and the Lower Danube is mostly By studying this astronomical rule, which • include as many dates of extreme events Table 1. The highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava Table 5. The total number of time intervals of different duration indicat- under the influence of continental air masses. is also called the Titius-Bode Law, Weng Wen- as possible; for the period 1876-2018 ing the date of the possible future highest summer flood on the Danube The Danube River has a complex hydrological Bo (1984) suggested that similar order is uni- • contain periodicity and symmetry vertically No. Year Discharge [m3s-1] No. Year Discharge [m3s-1] at Bratislava regime because of the varied atmospheric cir- versal. Thus, various natural phenomena are and horizontally on two-dimensional graphs 1 1883 9,062 8 1965 9,224 No. Year Number of time intervals No. Year Number of time intervals 2 1890 8,548 9 1975 8,715 culation and topographical relief in its basin. subject to laws like the Titius-Bode Law. Equa- and on three sides of three-dimensional 1 2019 8 8 2026 4 3 1892 8,380 10 1991 9,430 2 2020 18 9 2027 4 The Danube’s runoff is formed mainly in its tion (1) can be written as: graphs; 4 1897 10,140 11 2002 10,370 3 2021 8 10 2028 7 Upper part. In its Middle part additional runoff • have an aesthetic appearance. 5 1899 10,870 12 2009 8,242 4 2022 5 11 2029 7 is contributed by melting snow in the Carpathi- 6 1920 8,616 13 2010 8,071 5 2023 7 12 2030 9 (2) ans and the Balkans, and by rainfall. The Low- Forecasts employ the values of commen- 7 1954 10,400 14 2013 10,640 6 2024 6 13 2031 5 er Danube is mainly an area of transient flow surability on the horizontal and vertical axes 7 2025 9 (Pekárová et al. 2008; Khrystyuk 2013; Pekárová where n = –∞, 0, 1, 2…; β is the value of com- of the two-dimensional graph and three sides et al. 2014). mensurability for the solar system planets. of three-dimensional commensurability graphs. Table 2. Commensurability of the highest summer floods on the Danube Floods are not synchronous between individ- According to the hypothesis of Weng Wen- The third method is to determine the time River at Bratislava in the period from 1876 to 2018 No. Years ( ) ( ) Error:( ) – ual parts of the Danube River Basin. Floods oc- Bo, the dates of various natural disasters have intervals between the floods that have occurred Хі Хі – Хі-1 К К*∆Х Хі – Хі-1 К*∆Х cur most frequently in June-August in the Upper a periodicity, which is created by the cosmic in the past and the extrapolation of these time 1 1883 2 1890 7 3 8 -1 (–0.8) Danube River Basin, in April in the Middle part, influences. Weng Wen-Bo used the term com- intervals for the future. This forecast can be vis- 3 1892 2 1 3 –1 (–0.6) and April-May in the Lower part. So, depending mensurability, which was earlier proposed ualized by creating a graph. 4 1897 5 2 5 0 (–0.2) on timing, the floods can be all water (in sum- by Titius. Equation (2) brings to light the law For the fourth method we need to draw up 5 1899 2 1 3 –1 (–0.6) mer) or water and ice. In accordance with both of distribution of matter in a region of space. the commensurability equations with three 6 1920 21 8 21 0 (0.2) Fig. 3. The two-dimensional graph of commensurability of the highest archival data and data for the instrumental obser- For the time domain, the commensurability components that will indicate the date 7 1954 34 13 34 0 (0.2) summer floods on the Danube at Bratislava 8 1965 11 4 10 1 (0.6) vation period, the highest floods occurred most (∆Х) can be expressed as (Su et al. 2016): of the upcoming extreme event: 9 1975 10 4 10 0 (–0.4) frequently in the summer (Pekárová et al. 2014). 10 1991 16 6 16 0 (0.4) Therefore, for our investigation, we used observa- 11 2002 11 4 10 1 (0.6) (3) (4) tion data from the gauging station at Bratislava, 12 2009 7 3 8 –1 (–0.8) which represents the flood regime of the Upper 13 2010 1 0 0 1 (1.0) 14 2013 3 1 3 0 (0.4) Danube. This station has a long period of obser- where К is an integer (1, 2, ...); Хі is an element where Хi, Хj, Хk, Хl – the date array of the ex- vation, beginning in 1876. For this investigation of the data set. If K is equal to 1, then ∆Х treme events; i, j, k, l = 1, 2, …, n – the integers; Σ|Error| = 6.8 72 Σ(Error) = 0.0 73 we used observed data for summer floods from is the period of the data set. n – the number of dates in the extreme events 1876 to 2018. For long-term forecasting of extreme nat- array. ural events the method of Weng Wen-Bo can Dates that have the largest number of such Table 3. Possible dates of the highest summer floods on the Danube River 3. METHODOLOGY be used in several ways. We used four methods equations are the dates of a possible extreme event. at Bratislava The Danube River runoff has cyclical fluc- of forecasting: No. К К*∆Х Date of the possible highest flood: 2013 +К* ∆Х tuations. In our research we have shown 1. by the calculated value of commensurability; 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 1 3 8 2021 Fig. 4. The three-dimensional graph of commensurability of the highest 2 4 10 2023 that the river and its tributaries are character- 2. by the two-dimensional and three-dimen- At Bratislava, regular monitoring of the Danube summer floods on the Danube at Bratislava 3 5 13 2026 ized by consistent iteration of the wet and dry sional graph of commensurability; River runoff began in 1876. During the period 4 6 15 2029 phases of cyclical fluctuations (Pekárová et al. 3. by the time intervals between floods that have 1876-2018, fourteen of the highest summer floods 5 7 18 2031 2006; Gorbachova, Khrystyuk 2014; Pekárová occurred in the past; were recorded. The maximum discharges of such et al. 2014; Gorbachova 2015; Zabolotnia 4. by the number of commensurability equa- floods were more than 8,050 3m s-1 (Table 1). et al. 2019). Such fluctuations have different tions with three components. This value corresponds approximately to a discharge Table 4. Dates of the highest summer floods that occurred in the past 3 -1 on the Danube at Bratislava durations. The longer cycles of fluctuations The first method requires calculating of 10% probability (Q10% = 8,140 m s ). Date that was calculated by sometimes include less prolonged alternations the commensurability value from the array of dates Date from historical archives No. К К*∆Х value of commen-surability: Error (Pekárová et al. 2014) of wet and dry years. The presence of various on which the extreme events occurred, using equa- Forecasting results by the calculated 1883 + К*∆Х cyclic fluctuations is conditioned by the influ- tion (3). Forecasts are given in the form of points value of commensurability 1 –259 –673 1210 1210 0 ence of various factors, mechanisms, and prin- on the time axis, showing when the next event Applying equation (3), we calculated the com- 2 –207 –538 1345 1344 –1 3 –185 –481 1402 1402 0 ciples that can be described by the combined may occur, taking into account the forecast error. mensurability values of the highest summer 4 –160 –416 1467 1466 –1 effects of periodic and random factors, as well Te second method requires detecting floods that were observed on the Danube Riv- 5 –151 –393 1490 1490 0 as by the characteristics of the river basin. the commensurability values in the array er at Bratislava in the period from 1876 to 2018 6 –148 –385 1498 1499 1 In 1766 the German physicist and mathema- of dates for extreme events and the creation (Table 2). The value of commensurability (ΔX) 7 –147 –382 1501 1501 0 tician I.D. Titius discovered that the distances of two- and three-dimensional commensurabil- is 2.60 years, the value of К varies in the range 8 –137 –356 1527 1526 –1 9 –111 –289 1594 1594 0 of the solar system planets from the Sun (R ) ity graphs. 0-13, and the forecast error is ±1 year. The value n 10 –82 –213 1670 1670 0 Fig. 5. Butterfly structure diagram of the highest summer floods (Fig. 2) obey a simple empirical rule: These graphs are created by considering ΔX was determined by successive approxima- 11 –77 –200 1683 1682 –1 all possible combinations of values of commen- tion, which minimized the error. We have applied 12 –37 –96 1787 1787 0 on the Danube River at Bratislava (2020 is a forecast) surability. the criteria Σ|Error| and Σ(Error). (1) Final graphics should have the following The results of these calculations determine properties: the dates of the possible subsequent highest where n = –∞ for the planet Mercury and n = 0, • account for the maximum possible observa- summer floods on the Danube River at Brati- 1, 2... for the next planets. tion period; slava (Table 3). Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Application of the commensurability method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava Volume 8 | Issue 1 Borys Khrystiuk, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek

Table 6. Time intervals that are indicating a possible high summer flood Table 8. Time intervals that indicate a possible high summer flood Table 10. The commensurability equations with these time intervals for the future to determine cal approach of Weng Wen-Bo may be appli- on the Danube at Bratislava in 2020 on the Danube at Bratislava in 2030 the three components for the dates of possible the dates of the highest summer floods that may cable to forecasting other dangerous natural No. Time interval, years Number of repetitions No. Time interval, years Number of repetitions high summer floods on the Danube at Bratislava: occur in the coming years (2019-2036) (Table 5). phenomena, thus meriting further in-depth 1890 – 1883 = 7 1920 – 1899 = 21 2020, 2025, 2029, and 2030 1897 – 1890 = 7 1 21 1975 – 1954 = 21 2 We did not use dates of flood events before research. 1 7 1899 – 1892 = 7 4 2030 – 2009 = 21 Year Equations the regular monitoring because we are not sure Long-term forecasting of possible dangerous 2009 – 2002 = 7 1920 – 1892 = 28 2020 – 2013 = 7 2 28 1 1890 + 2013 – 1883 = 2020 2030 – 2002 = 28 1887 + 2013 – 1890 = 2020 that all the dates of high summer floods for spring floods can be used to prevent and min- 1975 – 1965 = 10 1899 + 2013 – 1892 = 2 10 1 1954 – 1899 = 55 2020 the period 1210-1883 were identified in the his- imize the negative effects for the population 2020 – 2010 = 10 1954 + 1965 – 1899 = 1975 – 1920 = 55 2020 3 55 3 2020 1965 + 1975 – 1920 = 1965 – 1954 = 11 2009 – 1954 = 55 2020 torical archives. and economy. 1965 + 2009 – 1954 = 2002 – 1991 = 11 2030 – 1975 = 55 2020 3 11 3 1975 + 2010 – 1965 = 2013 – 2002 = 11 2020 The largest time span, namely 18 years, in- 1975 – 1899 = 76 2002 + 2009 – 1991 = 2020 – 2009 = 11 4 76 1 2020 2030 – 1954 = 76 2009 + 2013 – 2002 = 2020 dicates that a high summer flood may occur 5. CONCLUSION 2009 – 1991 = 18 4 18 1 2002 – 1892 = 110 1954 + 1954 – 1883 = 2020 – 2002 = 18 2025 in 2020 (Table 5, Fig. 5). In the past the time Weng Wen-Bo’s methodology is perhaps 5 110 2009 – 1899 = 110 2 1899 + 2009 – 1883 = 2025 1965 – 1920 = 45 2030 – 1920 = 110 2025 1920 + 2002 – 1897 = 2025 interval of 7 years has been repeated four times, the only one that supports long-term forecast- 5 45 2010 – 1965 = 45 2 1954 + 1991 – 1920 = 2025 2020 – 1975 = 45 1991 + 2009 – 1975 = 2025 time intervals of 11 and 55 years, three times, ing of various natural disasters, including floods, 1954 – 1899 = 55 1899 + 2013 – 1883 = 2029 and time interval wof 45 years, twice (Table 6). with the minimum array of input information. 1975 – 1920 = 55 1954 + 1965 – 1890 = 6 55 3 2029 2009 – 1954 = 55 Table 9. Number of commensurability equations with three components for 2029 2002 + 2002 – 1975 = 2029 Nine intervals indicate a possible high sum- After calculating the commensurability value for 2020 – 1965 = 55 the dates of possible high summer floods on the Danube at Bratislava for 1991 + 2013 – 1975 = 2029 2010 + 2010 – 1991 = 2029 mer flood in 2025 (Table 5, Fig. 6). Time inter- the highest summer historical floods, we forecast 1965 – 1899 = 66 7 66 1 2020 – 1954 = 66 the period 2019-2031 1920 + 2002 – 1892 = 2030 vals of 16, 34 and 71 years have been repeated possible high summer floods on the Danube 1954 + 1975 – 1899 = 2030 2013 – 1892 = 121 Year Number of equations 8 121 1 2030 1920 + 2009 – 1899 = 2030 twice in the past (Table 7). at Bratislava in the coming years: 2021, 2023, 2020 – 1899 = 121 2019 4 1975 + 1975 – 1920 = 2030 2013 – 1890 = 123 1975 + 2009 – 1954 = 2030 A high summer flood may also occur in 2030 2026, 2029 and 2031. Retrospective analysis 9 123 1 2020 9 2020 – 1897 = 123 (and nine intervals also indicate this) (Table 5, Fig. of the calculated commensurability value con- 2021 4 2013 – 1883 = 130 10 130 1 2020 – 1890 = 130 2022 3 7). In the past the time interval of 55 years has firmed the dates of the highest summer floods 2023 4 The value of commensurability (∆Х = 2.60 been repeated three times, and the time intervals that occurred in the past. 2024 4 years) can be used not only to predict the dates of 21 and 110 years were repeated twice (Table 8). The two- and three-dimensional graphs Table 7. Time intervals that indicate a possible high summer flood 2025 5 of the future highest summer floods, but also of the commensurability clearly indicate 2026 2 on the Danube at Bratislava in 2025 to determine the dates on which such floods oc- Forecasting results by the number that a high summer flood may occur in 2030 2027 3 No. Time interval, years Number of repetitions of commensurability equations with 2028 4 curred in the past on the Danube at Bratislava. on the Danube at Bratislava. The method 1899 – 1883 = 16 the three components 74 1 16 1991 – 1975 = 16 2 2029 5 The analysis shows that the dates of the highest of forecasting by the time intervals between 75 2025 – 2009 = 16 2030 5 summer floods from historical archives (Pekárová For the period 2019-2031, we have creat- the highest summer historical floods shows 1920 – 1897 = 23 2 23 1 2031 4 2025 – 2002 = 23 et al. 2014), which occurred before regular hy- ed all possible commensurability equations that high summer floods may possibly occur 1954 – 1920 = 34 drometric observations, are closely consistent with three components, using the dates in 2020, 2025 and 2030. The forecasting 3 34 2009 – 1975 = 34 2 2025 – 1991 = 34 with the dates calculated using the value of com- of the highest summer floods that have oc- method using the number of commensurabil- 1954 – 1883 = 71 mensurability (Table 4). curred in the past (1876-2018) on the Danube ity equations with three components shows 4 71 1991 – 1920 = 71 2 2025 – 1954 = 71 at Bratislava. the dates of possible high floods in 2020, 2002 – 1897 = 105 5 105 1 Forecasting results by the two-dimensional The largest number of equations (9) with 2025, 2029, and 2030. 2025 – 1920 = 105 and three-dimensional graph three components was compiled for 2020 (Ta- So, the majority of commensurability meth- 2009 – 1883 = 126 6 126 1 2025 – 1899 = 126 of commensurability ble 9). Consequently, the next high summer ods indicate to us that the next series of high Analyzing the date array of the highest sum- flood on the Danube at Bratislava may occur summer floods on the Danube at Bratislava may mer floods, we found that the time intervals in 2020. Also, high summer floods are possi- occur in 2020, 2025, and 2030. between individual floods were the same val- ble in 2025, 2029 and 2030. For these dates, ues: 1954 – 1899 = 55; 1975 – 1920 = 55; 5 equations were compiled (Table 9). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 2009 – 1954 = 55 and 1920 – 1899 = 21; The application of the commensurability The investigation was carried out in the frame- 1975 – 1954 = 21; and 1954 – 1920 = 34; method supported forecasts of the possible work of the Slovak-Ukrainian project No. 11 2009 – 1975 = 34. This information supplies dates of high summer floods on the Dan- “Impacts of global climate changes on water the two-dimensional graph of commensurabili- ube at Bratislava. Although our results are resources in Ukraine estimated by variability ty of the highest summer floods on the Danube tentative, it can be argued that they can of river discharges and hydrograph components” Fig. 7. Butterfly structure diagram of the highest summer floods at Bratislava (Fig. 3). be reliable. This confidence is reinforced in accordance with the agreement on coopera- on the Danube River at Bratislava (2030 is a forecast) According to this graph, we can predict by the application of the four commen- tion between the National Academy of Sciences Fig. 6. Butterfly structure diagram of the highest summer floods the following highest summer flood: vertical- surability forecasting methods, as well of Ukraine and the Slovak Academy of Sciences, on the Danube River at Bratislava (2025 is a forecast) ly 2009 + 21 = 2030 and horizontally 1975 + as by the retrospective analysis based on his- 2016-2019. 55 = 2030. We also created the three-dimen- torical data. 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Research and Oper- to evaluate the spatial concurrence of the run- vironmental Studies, 26 (6), 2689-2702, DOI: ational Applications, 7 (2), 3-11, DOI: 10.26491/ off of Inn tributaries, [in:] Proceeding of XXVII 10.15244/pjoes/73859 mhwm//99752 Photo by Martin Katler on Unsplash Martin Katler by Photo Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Influence of a lake on river water thermal regime: A case study of Lake Sławianowskie and the Kocunia River (Pomeranian Lakeland, Northern Poland) Volume 8 | Issue 1 Bogumił Nowak, Mariusz Ptak, Paulina Stanek

1. INTRODUCTION land. Temperature is one of the basic physical rangements, which are not always possible Lakes are important elements of the natural en- properties of surface waters. This parameter in the current geopolitical environment. There- vironment, shaping its character both in their largely determines the functioning of many fore, it is important to determine local factors direct vicinity and throughout their catchments lake and river ecosystems. The occurrence, that can affect thermal conditions of surface (affecting the hydrological conditions, micro- course, and scale of many processes (e.g., du- waters (Ptak 2018). climate, etc.). They are landscape-forming el- ration of the ice season, water mixing, solubil- This paper addresses the assessment of Lake ements, and guarantee biodiversity (Ptak et al. ity of different kinds of substances, etc.) have Sławianowskie’s impacts on the thermal condi- Influence of a lake on river 2013). Due to their strong ability to accumulate strong correlations with water temperature. tions of the Kocunia River in northern Poland. energy and matter, the presence of lakes contrib- Water temperature is a fundamental element utes to the mitigation of extreme hydrological of hydrobiological conditions. The diversity 2. MATERIALS water thermal regime: situations (droughts and floods, among others). of the flora and fauna, the abundance within AND METHODS Direct relationships between lentic and lo- species, and where and when they occur depend Thermal conditions were analysed in the Ko- a case study tic waters are evident where lake deltas form, on the thermal regime. cunia River, which flows through Lake Sławi- as exemplified by Lake Płociczno (Chudzik- One of the most serious problems faced by hu- anowskie in the Pomeranian Lakeland in north- iewicz et al. 1979), among others. Lakes also manity today is climate change (Nowak, Ptak ern Poland (Fig. 1). The length of the river of Lake Sławianowskie fulfill important roles in the transport of vari- 2018; Nowak, Ptak 2019; Ptak et al. 2018; Ptak segment analysed is 41 km; its catchment area ous dissolved and particulate substances as they et al. 2019b). In this context, it seems import- is 171 km2. This section of the river is char- and the Kocunia River circulate in the catchment. The accumulation ant to reduce greenhouse gases, thus inhibiting acterised by a low gradient. Its channel width of materials in lake sediments can change prop- further increases in air temperature. Such action does not exceed several meters, and depth var- erties of the river above and below the lake. Such will inhibit transformations of all other closely ies, depending on the hydrological situation, (Pomeranian Lakeland, a situation is referred to by Hillbricht-Ilkowska related components of the natural environment from 12 to several tens of centimetres (Fig. 2). (2005), among others, in the case of the func- (including water temperature). At the global The morphological parameters of Lake Sławi- Northern Poland) tioning of river-lake systems in northeast Po- scale, such measures require international ar- anowskie are as follows: surface area 277.6 ha,

Bogumił Nowak Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa, Poland, 78 e-mail: [email protected] 79 Mariusz Ptak Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland Paulina Stanek Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Grunwaldzka 53, 50-357 Wrocław, Poland DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/115222

Fig. 1. Location of study object

ABSTRACT. Water temperature is one of the basic physical parameters of rivers and lakes. Rising temperature can transform these ecosystems over a broad range of factors (water mixing, water quality, biological conditions, etc.). In the case of rivers, their thermal regimes also can be modified by local conditions (e.g., tree cover, adjoining water bodies, etc.). In this paper, we address the functioning of the river-lake system in northern Poland (Kocunia River-Lake Sławianowskie) in terms of the effect of the lake on temperature conditions in the river. Dependencies in daily water temperatures between stations located above and below the lake were assessed with linear regression. Based on daily morning water temperatures for the period 2012-2017, it was determined that water temperature in the river below the lake was higher than at the measurement site located above the lake by an average of 1.1°C. The greatest differences were recorded in summer-autumn months when average monthly downstream water temperatures were as much as 3.9°C higher than upstream water temperatures. This phenomenon is an example of a local factor (the lake) magnifying global factors, i.e. rising temperatures associated with climate change. The information in this paper can provide future reference for decision makers and state institutions with responsibility for measures aimed at reducing the effects of climate change. Fig. 2. Cross-sections through the Kocunia River channel in profiles at Wik- Fig. 3. Time series of water temperature in Lake Sławianowskie (dotted

KEYWORDS: River-lake system, water temperature, measurement data. torówko and Sławianowo performed on 22.01.2015 (based on data from line), the Kocunia River at the inflow to the lake (grey line), and at the out- IMWM-NRI) flow from the lake (black line) in the years 2012-2017 (based on data

SUBMITTED: 1 June 2019 | REVISED: 19 August 2019 | ACCEPTED: 11 December 2019 of IMWM-NRI) Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Influence of a lake on river water thermal regime: A case study of Lake Sławianowskie and the Kocunia River (Pomeranian Lakeland, Northern Poland) Volume 8 | Issue 1 Bogumił Nowak, Mariusz Ptak, Paulina Stanek

water volume 18.3 million m3, maximum depth above and below Lake Sławianowskie varied suggest that air temperature plays the key role 5.0 m, mean depth 6.6 m. The lake, with from 0.9 to 1.4°C (Fig. 4). Over a multiyear in the thermal regime of the river, although the characteristics of a channel, is composed monthly scale, average differences in water tem- it is lower in the case of the station below of two basins separated by narrows with perature varied from –1.3 to 2.7°C (Table 1). the outflow from Lake Sławianowskie (Sła- a bridge crossing. The western basin is smaller, On a monthly scale, average differences in wa- wianowo). In this context, the calculated cor- shallow, and strongly overgrown with rushes. ter temperature varied from –2.6 in April 2013 relation between surface temperature in Lake The eastern basin is strongly elongated, deeper, to 3.9°C in August 2014 (Table 1). Sławianowskie and the observation site on Ko- and includes two bays reaching north and south, Analysis of the comparisons in Table 1, cunia located below it was almost perfect: 0.997 so that the lake resembles a cross (Fig. 1). along with the course of variability of daily (r2 = 0.994) (Fig. 6). This tight correlation re- The inflow of the Kocunia River to the lake is lo- temperatures in the river and lake (Fig. 3), in- flects the fact that water flowing in the river 160 cated at its eastern end; the outflow is at the end dicates a two-fold character of the dynamics m below the lake still shows properties of lake of the northern bay. The lake is surround- of water temperature in the Kocunia River waters in terms of temperature. ed by a narrow belt of a mixed tree stand, measured above and below Lake Sławianows- Temperature measurements (2012-2017) and further by extensive agricultural land kie over an annual cycle. The smallest differ- in the Kocunia River at the inflow to Lake Sła- Fig. 4. Multiyear monthly average water temperature of the Kocunia River Fig. 5. The relationship between the inflow and outflow of water tempera- (WIOS 2003). ences are recorded in winter and spring months wianowskie (Wiktorówka), and at the outflow at the inflow and outflow of Lake Sławianowskie 2012-2017 ture of Lake Sławianowskie for each month during the period 2012-2017 Water temperature was measured at three when they do not exceed 1.3°C; from January (Sławianowo), were compared using a linear (based on data of IMWM-NRI) water gauge stations of the Institute of Me- to March they are less than 0.5°C (Fig. 4). regression analysis. The results confirmed teorology and Water Management, Nation- In the colder half of the year, water tempera- the dependence of the outflow temperature Table 1. Average monthly differences in water temperature [°C] al Research Institute (IMWM-NRI). Two ture frequently depends on the occurrence (explained variable) on the inflow tempera- in the Kocunia River between stations located at the outflow of the gauges (Wiktorówko and Sławianowo) of ice (both in the river and lake). When ice ture (explanatory variable) at a level of sig- and inflow from the lake (based on data of IMWM-NRI) are located on the Kocunia River (500 m above is present, there are smaller thermal contrasts nificance of <0.001. The regression equation Year Month Average the lake and 160 m below the lake, respective- between stations under both lentic and lotic was y = 0.74 + 1.04 x, where y is the outflow 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ly), and one (Buntowo) is located on the north- flow conditions. It is also important that during temperature and x the inflow temperature January 0.8 –0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.5 2 -16 ern part of the lake (Fig. 1). The measurement spring, temperatures at the outflow are lower (r = 0.945, p = 2.2·10 ). This result suggests February 1.1 –0.1 0.0 0.3 –0.2 1.0 0.3

series covered calendar years 2012-2017. than at the inflow to the lake (Figs. 4 and 5). that water temperature in the Kocunia Riv- March –1.1 0.5 –1.2 –0.7 –0.9 –0.5 –0.6

The measurements were performed at 6.00 AM In the summer-autumn months, in most cas- er is higher at the outflow from Lake Sławi- April –1.2 –2.6 –1.4 –0.9 –1.5 –0.5 –1.3

80 by means of an OTT Orpheus Mini Water Lev- es (almost 70%), average monthly differenc- anowskie than at the inflow. May –0.2 –0.3 0.1 –0.4 –0.5 –1.0 –0.4 81 es between outflow and inflow temperatures el Logger at the river stations, and by an observ- June 1.7 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.3 er at the lake station. Measurement sensors were are higher than 2.0°C (in the extreme case, 4. DISCUSSION July 2.2 3.2 2.4 1.5 0.4 1.8 1.9 located in the vicinity of water gauges in lim- August 2016, the difference reached 3.9°C The issue of thermal relationships between len- August 2.4 3.5 3.9 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 nometric columns. The sensors were immersed (Table 1). In summer, water in the near-sur- tic and lotic waters has been frequently addressed September 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 3.0 1.7 2.6 at a depth of 40 cm from the water surface. face layer of Lake Sławianowskie is heated in the context of reservoirs (Poirel et al. 2010; October 2.9 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.4 1.7 2.7 Data readout and device operation control took faster than that in the Kocunia River above Maheu et al. 2016; Wiejaczka, Wesoły 2017; November 2.3 2.6 2.6 1.4 2.6 2.0 2.2 place once a month. the inflow to the lake. The river temperature Jiang et al. 2018). Deep water reservoirs with December 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 Air temperature used in this study was tak- is influenced by its sources, i.e. surface runoff a bottom outlet cause an increase in water Fig. 6. The relationship between the surface and outflow water temperature Average 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 en from the synoptic station of IMWM-NRI and groundwater. According to Chomutowska temperature in rivers in winter, and a decrease of Lake Sławianowskie by month during 2012-2017 in Piła, approximately 30 km south of the study and Wilamowski (2014), river water tempera- in summer (Olden, Naiman 2010). Different area. The measurements were carried out man- ture changes very fast in comparison to still wa- patterns apply to shallow reservoirs: during est difference in temperature (4.3°C) was re- (Ptak, Nowak 2016; Ptak et al. 2018; Martinsen the duration and extent of ice cover on rivers ually in a meteorological cage at a height of 2 m ters (lakes, ponds), depending on air tempera- the warm months, an increase in water tem- corded in August. According to the study, water et al. 2019; Ptak et al. 2019a; Zhu et al. 2019), has declined (Ptak, Choiński 2016; Choiński above the surface. Relationships between water ture, groundwater temperature, and springs perature in rivers below dams is observed temperature in the river below the weir in each concerning the thermal conditions of surface et al. 2015; Nowak et al. 2018). These dynam- temperatures at the three stations were exam- feeding the river, among other factors. Above (Lessard, Hayes 2003). Differences in water of the analysed months was higher below waters, both lotic and lentic. In a broader con- ics point to the complexity of potential con- ined with linear regression and R software (lm the first measurement site (approximately temperature in Julianpolka in southern Poland the reservoir than above it. text, it is also related to the course of ice phe- sequences of changes in thermal conditions function) (Daròczi 2015). 0.6 km), there is a strongly overgrown flow- were determined by Wiatkowski (2008), where The results reported here are consistent with nomena on rivers and lakes. The great major- of flowing waters, which will intensify over through lake with an area of 5 ha. Water flow- temperature was higher by an average of 2.4°C the studies summarized above. Although the lake ity of the numerous studies analysing thermal the next several decades (Czernecki, Ptak 3. RESULTS ing through the shaded surface of the lake at the site below the reservoir. Łaszewski (2015), we studied has no typical polymictic parameters, conditions of surface waters (Hampton et al. 2018). Detailed monitoring of the thermal Among the three sites of water tempera- is subject to a slower heating process. A sim- analysing the effect of reservoirs on the tem- i.e. thermal variability observed in the deepest 2008; Schneider, Hook 2010; O’Reilly et al. regime of surface waters should be under- ture measurement, the site at the inflow ilar situation is described by Bielak (2014), perature of the Jeziorka and Rządza Rivers place of the lake in the summer season (Fig. 7), 2015) points to changes in thermal regimes, taken, along with measures aimed at slow- to the lake showed a pattern different from among others, referring to swamps overgrown (vicinity of Warsaw) in the summer season, de- the hypolimnion is thin, and the zone with the great- and particularly increases in water tempera- ing the heating of lake waters, as postulated the others (Fig. 3 and 4). This contrast is as- with reed beds around Biebrza, participating termined that there was a considerable increase est depth (more than 10 m) occupies only about ture. These changes apply in Poland, where by Ptak et al. (2018), among others. In doc- sociated with the course of the Kocunia Riv- in the alimentation of the river. Alimentation in average monthly values below the reservoirs. 25% of the lake volume (Choiński et al. 2013). average temperature in 14 lakes increased umented cases, such measures could involve er through Lake Sławianowskie, which causes with (colder) groundwater is important during In the case of Lubrzanka (Świętokrzyskie Due to the shallow depth of the Kocunia by 0.43°C·dec-1 over the past four decades a change in the land use structure in the catch- transformation of the physical parameters summer, when water resources in the catch- Mountains, southern Poland), significant differ- channel at the outflow from the lake (Fig. 2), (Ptak et al. 2018). In the case of rivers out- ments or direct vicinity of rivers. Forested ri- of water carried by the river (including water ment are successively exhausted. ences were observed throughout the study peri- water from the near-surface zone, usually heat- side mountainous areas, an increase from 0.17 parian zones and a high percentage of forest temperature, among others) into those charac- Water temperatures in Kocunia at the Wik- od between water temperature above and below ed to a greater degree than the deeper parts to 0.27°C was observed (Marszelewski, Pius cover in catchments can contribute to lower teristics of the lake. In the multi-annual peri- torówko and Sławianowo stations were strongly the existing reservoir (Kozłowski 2017). Water of the lake, is discharged first. 2016). In the zone directly adjacent to the Bal- water temperatures, as documented by Ptak od of our analysis, average annual differences correlated (0.92 and 0.88, respectively) with in the river below the weir was on average 3.2°C This study corresponds with the global tic Sea, the warming varied from 0.26°C∙dec-1 (2017), among others, in the case of two rivers in water temperature in the Kocunia River air temperature (station Piła). The correlations higher than above the reservoir, and the great- research trend, popular over recent decades to 0.31°C∙dec-1 (Ptak et al. 2016). Moreover, in southern Poland. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Influence of a lake on river water thermal regime: A case study of Lake Sławianowskie and the Kocunia River (Pomeranian Lakeland, Northern Poland) Volume 8 | Issue 1 Bogumił Nowak, Mariusz Ptak, Paulina Stanek

• Chomutowska H., Wilamowski K., 2014, Analiza mate: a case study of Polish rivers, Hydrolog- es P., Noges T., North R.P., Plisnier P.-D., Rigosi and morphometric parameters on surface wa- czystości wód rzeki Łutownia na terenie Puszczy ical Sciences Journal, 61 (8), 1430-1442, DOI: A., Rimmer A., Rogora M., Rudstam L.G., Rusak ter temperature in Polish lakes, Water, 10 (5), Białowieskiej, Inżynieria Ekologiczna, 38, 117-128 10.1080/02626667.2015.1040800 J.A., Salmaso N., Samal N.R., Schindler D.E., DOI: 10.3390/w10050580 • Chudzikiewicz L., Doktor M., Gradziński R., • Martinsen K.T., Andersen M.R., Sand-Jensen K., Schladow S.G., Schmid M., Schmidt S.R., Silow • Ptak M., Sojka M., Kałuża T., Choiński A., Haczewski G., Leszczyński S., Łaptaś A., 2019, Water temperature dynamics and the prev- E., Soylu M.E., Teubner K., Verburg P., Voutilain- Nowak B., 2019a, Long-term water tempera- Pawełczyk J., Porębski S., Rachocki A., Turnau alence of daytime stratification in small temper- en A., Watkinson A., Williamson C.E., Zhang G., ture trends of the Warta River in the years E., 1979, Sedymentacja współczesnej delty ate shallow lakes, Hydrobiologia, 826, 247-262, 2015, Rapid and highly variable warming of lake 1960-2009, Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology, piaszczystej w jeziorze Płociczno (Pomorze DOI:10.1007/s10750-018-3737-2 surface waters around the globe, Geophysi- 19, 441-451, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecohyd.2019.03.007 Zachodnie), Studia Geologica Polonica, 62, • Nowak B., Nowak D., Ptak M., 2018, Variabil- cal Research Letter, 42 (24), 10773-10781, DOI: • Ptak M., Sojka M., Nowak B., 2019b, Daily wa- 61 pp. ity and course of occurrence of ice cover 10.1002/2015GL066235 ter temperature distribution and fluctuations • Daròczi G., 2015, Mastering Data Analysis with on selected lakes of the Gnieźnieńskie Lake- • Poirel A., Gailhard J., Capra H., 2010, Effects in Lake Kierskie, Quaestiones Geographica, 38 R, Birmingham, Packt Publishing, 396 pp. land (Central Poland) in the period 1976-2015, of dams on water temperature: example (3) 41-49, DOI: 10.2478/quageo-2019-0027 • Czernecki B., Ptak M., 2018, The impact E3S Web of Conference, 44, DOI: 10.1051/e3s- of the Ain River (France), Houille Blanche, 4, • Ptak M., Tomczyk A.M., Wrzesiński D., 2018b, of global warming on lake surface water tem- conf/20184400126 72-79, DOI: 10.1051/lhb/2010044 Effect of teleconnection patterns on changes perature in Poland – the application of empir- • Nowak B., Ptak M., 2018, Effect of a water dam • Ptak M., 2017, Effects of catchment area for- in water temperature in Polish lakes, Atmo- ical-statistical downscaling, 1971-2100, Journal on Lake Powidzkie and its vicinity, Bulletin estation on the temperature of river waters, sphere, 9 (2), DOI: 10.3390/atmos9020066 of Limnology, 77 (2), 330-348, DOI: 10.4081/ of Geography, Physical Geography Series, 15, Forest Research Papers, 78 (3), 251-256, DOI: • Schneider P., Hook S.J., 2010, Space obser- jlimnol.2018.1707 5-13, DOI: 10.2478/14110 10.1515/frp-2017-0028 vations of inland water bodies show rapid • Hampton S.E., Izmest’eva L.R., Moore M.V., • Nowak B., Ptak M., 2019, Natural and anthro- • Ptak M., 2018, Long-term temperature fluc- surface warming since 1985, Geophysi- Katz S.L., Dennis B., Silow E.A., 2008, Sixty pogenic conditions of water level fluctua- tuations in rivers of the Fore-Sudetic region cal Research Letter, 37 (22), 208-217, DOI: years of environmental change in the world’s tions in lakes – Powidzkie Lake case study in Poland, Geografie, 123, 279-294 10.1029/2010GL045059 largest freshwater Lake – Lake Baikal, Siberia, (Central-Western Poland), Journal of Water • Ptak M., Choiński A., 2016, Ice phenomena in rivers • Wiatkowski M., 2008, Wyniki badań jakości Global Change Biology, 14, 1947-1958, DOI: and Land Development, 40 (1-3), 13-25, DOI: of the coastal zone (Southern Baltic) in the years wody dopływającej i odpływającej z małego 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01616.x 10.2478/jwld-2019-0002 1956-2015, Baltic Coastal Zone, 20, 73-83 zbiornika wodnego Młyny na rzece Julianpol- • Hillbricht-Ilkowska A., 2005, Ochrona jezior • Olden J.D., Naiman R.J., 2010, Incorporating • Ptak M., Choiński A., Kirviel J., 2016, Long-term ka, Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejs- i krajobrazu pojeziernego – problemy, procesy, thermal regimes into environmental flows water temperature fluctuations in coastal riv- kich, 9, 297-318 perspektywy, Kosmos, 54, 285-302 assessments: modifying dam operations ers (Southern Baltic) in Poland, Bulletin of Ge- • Wiejaczka Ł., Wesoły K., 2017, Effect of a small 82 83 • Jiang B., Wang F., Ni G., 2018, Heating impact to restore freshwater ecosystem integri- ography. Physical Geography Series, 11, 35-42, dam reservoir on the water temperature of a tropical reservoir on downstream water ty, Freshwater Biology, 55 (1), 86-107, DOI: DOI: 10.2478/11379 in a Carpathian river, Geographia Polonica, 90 Fig. 7. Example thermal profiles in Lake Sławianowskie in the warm half of the year 2014 temperature: a case study of the Jinghong 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02179.x • Ptak M., Choiński A., Strzelczak A., Targosz A., (4), 481-491, DOI: GPol.0107 (based on data from IMWM-NRI) Dam on the Lancang River, Water, 10 (7), DIO: • O’Reilly C.M., Sharma S., Gray D.K., Hampton S.E., 2013, Disappearance of Lake Jelenino since • WIOS, 2003, Raport o stanie środowiska przy- 10.3390/w10070951 Read J.S., Rowley R.J., Schneider P., Lenters J.D., the end of the XVIII century as an effect of an- rodniczego w województwie wielkopolskim 5. CONCLUSIONS developed thermal stratification. The local • Kozłowski R., Przybylska J., Kaleta J., 2017, McIntyre P.B., Kraemer B.M., Weyhenmeyer G.A., thropogenic transformations of the natural en- w roku 2002, WIOŚ Poznań, Poznań We analysed water temperature in the Kocunia dynamics of water temperature need to be Wpływ zbiornika zaporowego Cedzyna na wy- Straile D., Dong B., Adrian R., Allan M.G., Anne- vironment, Polish Journal of Environmental • Zhu S., Heddam S., Nyarko E.K., Hadzi- River-Lake Sławianowskie system. The obser- considered in the context that they intensify brane parametry jakości wody rzeki Lubrzanki ville O., Arvola L., Austin J., Bailey J.L., Baron J.S., Studies, 22 (1), 191-196 ma-Nyarko M., Piccolroaz S., Shiqiang W., vations showed that the lake affects the ther- the global factors that cause increasing air tem- w okresie letnim, Monitoring Środowiska Przy- Brookes J.D., de Eyto E., Dokulil M.T., Hamilton • Ptak M., Nowak B., 2016, Variability of oxy- 2019, Modelling daily water temperature for mal regime of the Kocunia River by increas- perature and consequently, water temperature. rodniczego, 19, 81-89 D.P., Havens K., Hetherington A.L., Higgins S.N., gen-thermal conditions in selected lakes in Po- rivers: comparison between adaptive neu- ing its water temperature below the lake for Information included in this paper can pro- • Lessard J.L., Hayes D.B., 2003, Effects of ele- Hook S., Izmest’eva L.R., Joehnk K.D., Kangur K., land, Ecological Chemistry Engineering S, 23 ro-fuzzy inference systems and artificial neu- most of the year (Fig. 4). Only in the period vide the basis for future reference for persons vated water temperature on fish and macro- Kasprzak P., Kumagai M., Kuusisto E., Leshkevich (4), 639-650, DOI: 10.1515/eces-2016-0045 ral networks models, Environmental Science from February to May are the water tem- or state authorities responsible for measures invertebrate communities below small dams, G., Livingstone D.M., MacIntyre S., May L., Melack • Ptak M., Sojka M., Choiński A., Nowak B., and Pollution Research, 26 (1), 402-420, DOI: peratures at the lake outflow slightly lower aimed at the reduction of effects of climate River Research and Applications, 19 (7), 721- J.M., Mueller-Navarra D.C., Naumenko M., Nog- 2018a, Effect of environmental conditions 10.1007/s11356-018-3650-2 than the water temperatures at the lake inflow. change. 732, DOI: 10.1002/rra.713 Differences between the measurement sites • Łaszewski M., 2015, Wpływ niewielkich on the river located above and below the lake REFERENCES zbiorników na temperaturę wody rzek niz- in the multi-annual period show that below • Bielak S.R., 2014, Zastosowanie modelowania innych na przykładzie Jeziorki i Rządzy, Prze- the lake, average annual water temperature was matematycznego w analizie procesów wymia- gląd Naukowy – Inżynieria i Kształtowanie higher by an average of 1.5°C. In the monthly ny ciepła w korycie rzecznym, Aura, 2, 7-11 Środowiska, 67, 13-25 cycle, the greatest differences occur in summer • Choiński A., Ptak M., Skowron R., Strzelczak • Maheu A., St-Hilaire A., Caissie D., El-Jabi N., and autumn months, particularly in September A., 2015, Changes in ice phenology on pol- Bourque G., Boisclair D., 2016, A regional anal- and October, when on average they exceeded ish lakes from 1961-2010 related to location ysis of the impact of dams on water tempera- 4.0°C multiple times. The study corresponds and morphometry, Limnologica, 53, 42-49, ture in medium-size rivers in eastern Canada, with other studies showing that artificial shal- DIO: 10.1016/j.limno.2015.05.005 Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic low-water reservoirs increase temperatures • Choiński A., Ptak M., Strzelczak A., 2013, Ar- Sciences, 73 (12), 1885-1897, DOI: 10.1139/cj- in rivers flowing through the reservoirs (Les- eal variation in ice cover thickness on Lake fas-2015-0486 sard, Hayes 2003; Wiatkowski 2008; Łasze- Morskie Oko (Tatra Mountanins), Carpathian • Marszelewski W., Pius B., 2016, Long-term wski 2015). In this study, the same role was Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, changes in temperature of river waters observed in the case of a natural lake with 8 (3), 97-102 in the transitional zone of the temperate cli- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The interaction between local factors and the Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves over Indonesia during the Western North Pacific and Australian monsoon phase Volume 8 | Issue 1 Ida Pramuwardani, Hartono, Sunarto, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan

1. INTRODUCTION 850 hPa zonal wind dataset (1986-2015) from Since its discovery by Yanai and Maruyama (1996), the ERA-Interim reanalysis, days of extreme mon- tropical equatorial waves have emerged as a popu- soon activity were identified, based on the expected lar research topic when investigating the significant variability characterized by the WNP and AU mon- drivers of regional weather dynamics (Liebmann, soon indices from Wang and Fan (1999) and Yim Hendon 1990; Takayabu, Nitta 1993; Wheeler, et al (2013). WNP and AU indices were calculated Kiladis 1999; Lubis, Jacobi 2014). Further study by averaging low-level zonal wind; WNP index was Fig. 1. Regional precipitation domains defined linked this phenomenon with convective activity from U850 (5°N – 15°N, 100°E – 130°E) – U850 and abbreviated by Wang et al. (2012); (Wheeler, Kiladis 1999), described as Convectively (20°N – 35°N, 110°E – 140°E), whereas AU in- this study focusses on the Western North Pacific The interaction between local Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW). Using space- dex was calculated from U850 (0°S – 15°S, 90°E (WNP) and Australian (AU) monsoon phases time spectra analysis (hereafter referred to as WK99) – 130°E) – U850 (20°S – 30°S, 100°E – 140°E). factors and the Convectively to filter long periods of time series data, each type The days with extreme WNP and AU monsoon of wave can be distinguished by its wavenumber indices were collated to define the three months and frequency; i.e. Kelvin, Equatorial Rossby (ER), with the most extreme monsoon index over In- Coupled Equatorial Waves over Mixing Rossby Gravity Wave (MRG), and Inertia donesia. Since monsoon phases are commonly Gravity (IG). When a wave is coupled with con- referred to by the season with prevailing winds vection, CCEW can modulate rainfall variability (cf. Ramage 1971) rather than by its peak monsoon Indonesia during the Western in the tropics, particularly over the Maritime Conti- index, the WNP monsoon phase will be referred nent (MC) of Indonesia (Wheeler, McBride 2005; to as December-January-February (DJF), while North Pacific and Australian Kiladis et al. 2009; Horinouchi 2012; Lubis, Jacobi the AU monsoon phase will be referred to as Ju- Fig. 2. Observational sounding stations from 2014). Furthermore, the Asian-Australian monsoon ly-August-September (JAS). the Indonesian Agency of Meteorology Climatol- plays a significant role for CCEW behavior over Adapted from the method of Zhao et al. (2013), ogy and Geophysics (BMKG) dataset, identified monsoon phase the MC, as it can intensify and shift the impacted an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode by WMO number and city name area latitudinally (parallel to the equator) (Wheel- 1 and 2 was applied to each filtered wave to deter- Ida Pramuwardani*, Hartono, Sunarto er, McBride 2005; Kiladis et al. 2009; Horinouchi mine its evolution stage, obtained using a lag-re- 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Sekip Utara, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia, e-mail: [email protected] 2012; Lubis, Jacobi 2014). Additional interactions gression method. Furthermore, significant CCEW The spatial distribution of each CCEW evolution 84 between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the 3B42 dataset were identified using Principal stage is overlaid with the average daily precipitation 85 Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan *Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency, Jl. Angkasa I No. 2 Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat, DKI Jakarta 10720, Indonesia and CCEW over the MC, as well as local factors Component (PC) 1 and 2 above the standard de- in Figures 3, 4 and 5 (for Kelvin, ER, and MRG such as regional terrain complexity cause further viation. Days of both significant CCEW and ex- waves, respectively). These figures indicate that pre- DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/117576 complicate regional rainfall variability and weather treme WNP and AU monsoon activity were then cipitation generally follows the location of the wave patterns (Kikuchi et al. 2017). collated to form a group of days with extreme perturbation, particularly for Kelvin waves (Wheel- The aim of this study is to investigate the con- WNP and AU monsoon phase related to CCEW. er and McBride 2005). Figure 3 also shows a strong tribution of local factors in comparison with con- Through spatial analysis of these groups of data link between a positive Kelvin wave and heavy pre- vective and vertical influences at a local scale, from EOF 1 and 2, the mode with the most similar cipitation over the Indonesian region during both to help constrain global CCEW phenomena during wave variance was identified, where Kelvin was rep- extreme monsoon phases. Therefore suggesting the Asian and Australian monsoon phase over In- resented by EOF 2, while ER and MRG were rep- that Kelvin waves are adequate to control weather donesia. In this study, the Asian monsoon phase, resented by EOF1. Through this method, the evo- conditions in Indonesia during an extreme WNP represented by the Western North Pacific (WNP) lution stage of CCEW related to extreme NWP and AU monsoon phase. Meanwhile, ER waves monsoon, and the Australian (AU) monsoon phase and AU monsoon phases was obtained. appear to be less vigorous than Kelvin and display are defined by the global rainfall monsoon domains Furthermore, using a 30 year (1986-2015) ob- unorganized disturbance patterns, presumably due ABSTRACT. A large scale perturbation by the Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) is often observed in the tropics as a precursor to influence described by Wang et al. (2012) (Fig. 1). servation dataset of daily precipitation from seven to its off-equatorial impact (cf. Matsuno 1966; weather condition, for example over the Indonesian archipelago (Maritime Continent (MC)). This study examines the interaction between local factors stations (Fig. 2), normal rainfall variability was Kiladis, Wheeler 1995; Kiladis et al. 2009; Lubis, and CCEW with regard to convection and vertical interferences on a local scale over Indonesia during extreme Western North Pacific (WNP) and Australian 2. DATA AND METHODS determined. Using 3 hour time-steps, precipita- Jacobi 2014), where maximum perturbations occur (AU) monsoon phases. Through space-time spectra analysis of a 15 year (2001-2015) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 dataset, the propagation The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) tion anomalies outside of this normal variability in regions to the north and south of the equatorial of CCEW, i.e. Kelvin, Equatorial Rossby (ER) and Mixing Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves was assessed. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) 1 and 2 for each 3B42 version 7 (V7) is a combined precipitation which occurred in WNP and AU monsoon phases line, but still within tropical latitudinal boundar- wave evolution across the region of Indonesia, was then compared with daily precipitation anomalies and multilevel wind observations from seven locations estimation from multiple satellites which has been in the same dataset during the most recent 15 years ies. Although the effect of ER waves is less strong in Indonesia to assess the interaction between local factors and CCEW. Results suggest there is evidence of local convection associated with Kelvin waves proven as an adequate proxy for precipitation for (2001-2015) were then plotted for each wave evo- than Kelvin, there are some positive ER signals in the afternoon through to the evening in Tangerang, Surabaya and Makassar during WNP monsoon phases. Local convection associated with MRG waves tropical areas related to the Asian-Australian mon- lution stage related to CCEW, to represent the local that could potentially be associated with the inten- only occurred in Makassar at the last evolution day during the same period, while there is no clear evidence for an interaction between local factors for ER soon (Giarno et al. 2018). The daily precipitation precipitation characteristic in the seven locations sification of precipitation in Indonesia during both waves. Low-level westerly winds appear to be significantly coupled with convection from Kelvin waves in Tangerang, Surabaya, and Makassar during the WNP from a 15-year dataset (2001-2015) of 3B42 was over Indonesia (Fig. 2). Additionally, days with extreme monsoon phases, particularly over Papua monsoon phase, while the interaction is less significant for MRG-coupled convections (except in Makassar during the same monsoon phase) and absent for used to filter Kelvin, ER, and MRG waves using an average of 12-hourly multi-level winds which at day –4 during DJF and over western offshore ER waves. This study suggests that the global scale phenomena of the Kelvin wave is associated with local scale factors in controlling convection, particularly space-time spectra analysis WK99. This meth- occurred within the same period, as observed from of South Sumatra at day 0 during JAS. Meanwhile, during an extreme WNP phase in Indonesia. od transforms a space-time 3B42 dataset into sounding stations within similar locations, were lower magnitude perturbations of MRG waves a wavenumber-frequency form, which then filters plotted to demonstrate local atmospheric dynamics were observed over Indonesia compared to Kelvin KEYWORDS: Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves, Kelvin wave, local factor, monsoon, Indonesia. each wave based on each specific wavenumber related to CCEW. This multi-level wind dataset was and ER, in line with the previous study of Kiladis and frequency domain according to each wave char- obtained from the Indonesian Agency of Meteorol- et al. (2009), therefore indicating that MRG waves SUBMITTED: 15 September 2019 | REVISED: 29 November 2019 | ACCEPTED: 28 January 2020 acteristic (Wheeler, Kiladis 1999). Using a 30 year ogy Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG). are inadequate to evoke extreme precipitation over Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The interaction between local factors and the Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves over Indonesia during the Western North Pacific and Australian monsoon phase Volume 8 | Issue 1 Ida Pramuwardani, Hartono, Sunarto, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan

Fig. 6. A 3-hourly (time in UTC) precipitation rate related to Kelvin wave propagation for each day lags (see legend) at seven observation stations as shown in Figure 2, for DJF (left) and JAS (right)

Fig. 3. Day –2 through day +2 lags of Kelvin wave propagation asso- Fig. 4. Day –4 through day +4 lags of ER wave propagation associated ciated with daily precipitation rate (colored shades; mm/day). Kelvin with daily precipitation rate (colored shades; mm/day). ER wave propa- wave propagation is represented by EOF2 using lag-correlation of EOF1 gation is represented by EOF1 using lag-correlation of EOF1 and 2 from and 2 from 15-year Kelvin-filtered TRMM-3B42 (solid black contour lines for 15-year Kelvin-filtered TRMM-3B42 (solid black contour lines for positive positive and dashed black contour lines for negative), for DJF-WNP (left) and dashed black contour lines for negative), for DJF-WNP (left) and JAS-AU (right) monsoon phase over Indonesia and JAS-AU (right) monsoon phase over Indonesia

86 87

Fig. 7. A 3-hourly (time in UTC) precipitation rate related to ER wave propagation for each day lags (see legend) at seven observation stations as shown in Figure 2, for DJF (left) and JAS (right)

Fig. 5. Day –1 through day +1 lags of MRG wave propagation associated with daily precipitation rate (colored shades; mm/day); MRG wave propagation is represented by EOF1 using lag-correlation of EOF1 and 2 from 15-year Kelvin-filtered TRMM-3B42 (solid black contour lines for positive and dashed black contour lines for negative), for DJF-WNP (left) and JAS-AU (right) monsoon phase over Indonesia Fig. 8. A 3-hourly (time in UTC) precipitation rate related to MRG wave propagation for each day lags (see legend) at seven observation stations as shown this region. However, considerable precipitation around the equatorial line (Wheeler, Kiladis, 1999). over the Indonesia-Malaysia region during DJF in Figure 2, for DJF (left) and JAS (right) which overlaps with positive MRG perturbation However, Kelvin and MRG waves were more con- which is absent during JAS (Ramage 1971), en- from day 0 to day 1 over Kalimantan and Papua fined to equatorial regions (cf. Matsuno 1966; Gill hancing convection significantly over equatorial DJF, except in Medan, Padang, and Kupang. hand, a slight positive local precipitation anomaly of significant positive anomaly on day 0 for those during DJF, confirms that MRG waves contribute 1982) compared with ER waves which extended MC during DJF. Further examination is needed This could be as result of the propagation of the Kel- at all stations except Medan, Padang, and Manado, three locations during JAS reveals that the con- to intensifying convection, even though the impact further latitudinally into the northern and southern to clarify this relationship. vin wave, where it reaches Medan and Padang at day follows the positive perturbation area of the Kelvin nection between Kelvin waves and local factors are on precipitation is less significant compared with hemisphere. Moreover, there is a slight discrepancy Figure 6, 7 and 8 show a diurnal cycle (with –2 and Kupang at day +2. A clear sky in the morn- wave during JAS (Fig. 6; right). A clear morning sky dominant during WNP monsoon phase, rather Kelvin and ER waves. in the latitudinal distribution between an extreme 3 hour time-steps) of precipitation anoma- ing (00-03Z) exhibited in Tangerang, Surabaya, was only observed in Padang during the whole study than during AU monsoon phase over Indonesia. Even though there is a northward and south- DJF-WNP and JAS-AU monsoon phases, where lies for each wave evolution stage during WNP Manado, and Makassar later showed intensified period, with similarly clear skies at Manado at day Meanwhile, a predominant negative local pre- ward shift in precipitation as a result of solar inso- the extent of DJF appears to be closer to the equa- and AU monsoon phases (as in Fig. 3-5). Positive rain during the afternoon (06Z) and through 0 and in the afternoon at Medan seems to be clear cipitation anomaly at day 0 coincides with ER wave lation during an extreme AU and WNP monsoon tor (Indonesia-Malaysia region) than JAS which precipitation anomalies, particularly during day 0 to the subsequent early morning (21Z), indicating during the afternoon. Rain was observed at Medan propagation during DJF and a slightly positive phase, the areas affected are still limited regions near spreads northward. This pattern is presumably (Fig. 6; left), suggests a positive feedback of Kelvin a strong local convection coupled with a Kelvin from the early morning up to early afternoon for anomaly at day 0 during JAS (Fig. 7), indicating the equator as a result of the dynamic constraints caused by the increased abundance of water vapor waves on local precipitation in Indonesia during wave over these locations during DJF. On the other almost all the intervals during JAS. However, a lack there is no connection between local factors and ER Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management The interaction between local factors and the Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves over Indonesia during the Western North Pacific and Australian monsoon phase Volume 8 | Issue 1 Ida Pramuwardani, Hartono, Sunarto, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan

this condition. An absence of significant westerly for the MRG wave in Makassar during an extreme of Atmospheric Sciences, 47 (12), 1463-1479, DOI: wind during JAS, except in Padang where a weak WNP monsoon phase), suggest that these waves are 10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<1463:SSDNTE>2.0. westerly wind follows convection, indicates local insufficient in intensifying convection in the region CO;2 factors have little impact on vertical interferences of Indonesia, related to Asian-Australian monsoon. • Lubis S.W., Jacobi C., 2014, The modulating influ- for Kelvin waves at almost all locations in Indonesia Further study with more complex datasets with ence of convectively coupled equatorial waves during the AU monsoon phase. greater spatial coverage is required to ascertain more (CCEWs) on the variability of tropical precipita- Unlike Kelvin waves, a significant westerly wind detail on local-CCEW relationships, particularly tion, International Journal of Climatology, 35 (7), observed over almost all locations during DJF indi- over the eastern part of the Indonesian region. 1465-1483, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4069 cates a weak connection between ER waves and local • Matsuno T., 1966, Quasi-geostrophic motions factors, due to the inconsistency in rainfall anomalies ACKNOWLEDGEMENT in the equatorial area, Journal of the Meteorolog- (Fig. 7). A strong westerly wind during DJF and east- This research is supported by the National Aero- ical Society of Japan, 44 (1), 25-43, DOI: 10.2151/ erly wind during JAS reveals that the monsoon con- nautics and Space Administration (NASA)-God- jmsj1965.44.1_25 trols weather conditions in Indonesia (Ramage 1971) dard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services • Ramage C.S., 1971, Monsoon meteorology, Aca- rather than ER waves. The other reason is due to its Center (GES DISC) for TRMM 3B42 V7 dataset, demic Press, New York-London, 296 pp. off-equatorial center, which drives the ER signal away the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather • Takayabu Y.N., Nitta T.S., 1993, 3-5 day peri- from the near-equatorial regions (cf. Kiladis, Wheel- Forecasts (ECMWF) for ERA-Interim reanalysis od disturbances coupled with convection over er 1995; Lubis, Jacobi 2014). With the exception dataset, and the Indonesian Meteorological Cli- the tropical Pacific Ocean, Journal of Meteorolog- of a significant westerly wind which is coupled with matological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) ical Society of Japan, 71 (2), 221-246, DOI: 10.2151/ a positive local precipitation anomaly and an MRG for observational sounding data. Authors would jmsj1965.71.2_221 wave (Fig. 8) in Makassar at day +1 during DJF, there like to thank the Head of the Indonesian Meteo- • Wang B., Fan, Z., 1999, Choice of south Asian is a lack of significant connection at almost all oth- rological Climatological and Geophysical Agency summer monsoon indices, Bu letin if the Ameri- er locations, indicating that there is a less significant (BMKG) for the full scholarship in Gadjah Mada can Meteorological Society, 80 (4), 629-638, DOI: connection between local factors and MRG waves University (UGM), Faculty of Geography, as well 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0629:COSASM over almost all of Indonesia, as previously suggested as to the Head of the Education and Training Cen- >2.0.CO;2 by Kiladis et al. (2009). ter (Pusdiklat BMKG). Authors are also very grate- • Wang B., Liu J., Kim H.J., Webster P.J., dan Yim ful to Mr. George Kiladis (NOAA) for allowing S.Y., 2012, Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008), Climate Dynamics, 39 88 4. SUMMARY the adaptation of WK99 method in this study. 89 The connection between local factors and CCEW, (5), 1123-1135, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1266-z particularly the contribution of local factors REFERENCES • Wheeler M., Kiladis N.G., 1999, Convectively cou- on CCEW behavior in the MC region has been • Giarno, Hadi M.P., Suprayogi S., Murti S.H., 2018, pled equatorial waves: analysis of clouds and tem- assessed in this study. 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L., 2005, Australian-In- JAS-AU monsoon phase at 00Z (c) and at 12Z (d); ER wave are plotted for DJF-WNP monsoon phase at 00Z (e) and at 12Z (f) and for JAS-AU monsoon This is supported by local convection during the af- Academic Press, 662 pp. donesian monsoon, [in:] Intraseasonal variability phase at 00Z (g) and at 12Z (h); MRG waves are plotted for DJF-WNP monsoon phase at 00Z (i) and at 12Z (j) and for JAS-AU monsoon phase at 00Z ternoon and through to the evening in Tangerang, • Horinouchi T., 2012, Modulation of seasonal pre- in the atmosphere-ocean climate system, W.K.M. (k) and at 12Z (l); note that significant multilevel wind at >20 knots for the DJF-WNP monsoon phase and >10 knots for the JAS-ASU monsoon phase are Surabaya and Makassar, which is linked to Kelvin cipitation over the tropical western/central Pacific Lau, D.E. Waliser (eds.), Springer, Berlin, Heidel- indicated by a dashed black contour lines wave propagation during an extreme WNP mon- by convectively coupled mixed Rossby-gravity berg, 125-173, DOI: 10.1007/3-540-27250-X_5 soon phase. The only exception to this occurs waves, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (20), • Yanai M., Maruyama T., 1966, Stratospheric wave waves during both monsoon phases. The distinc- ouchi 2012). At these two locations, convective rains From Figure 9 (a-l), significant (>10 knots) at Makassar, where local convection is associated 600-606, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0283.1 disturbances over the equatorial Pacific, Journal tive significant positive anomaly which occurred occur during the afternoon (09Z) and evening (15Z) low-level (up to 700 hPa) westerly winds are ob- with an MRG wave at day +1 during an extreme • Kikuchi K., Kiladis G.N., Dias J., Nasuno T., 2017, of the Meteorologycal Society of Japan, 44 (5), in Padang during DJF, as well as anomalies in Med- for Makassar during DJF and Manado during JAS, served during the WNP monsoon phase for almost WNP monsoon phase. Convectively coupled equatorial waves within 291-294, DOI: 10.2151/jmsj1965.44.5_291 an and Manado during JAS can be discounted due respectively. An apparent positive anomaly at other all locations, while a lower magnitude of westerly Furthermore, low-level westerly winds associated the MJO during CINDY/DYNAMO: slow Kelvin • Yang G.-Y., Hoskins B., Slingo J., 2003, Convectively to its incoherency with the positive perturbation locations could be disregarded due to their incon- wind remains only over the western part of Indo- with convection within CCEW envelopes are sig- waves as building blocks, Climate Dynamics, 50, coupled equatorial waves: a new methodology for area (Fig. 4). Overall, results suggest there is no lo- sistency with MRG positive perturbations (Fig. 5). nesia during the AU monsoon phase. Figure 9 (a-d) nificant for Kelvin waves during an extreme WNP 4211-4230, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3869-5 identifying wave structures in observational data, cal-ER connection over Indonesia related to an ex- Hence, similar to ER waves, there is a less significant indicates that low-level westerly winds that are par- monsoon phase, while absent for ER and MRG • Kiladis G.N., dan Wheeler M.C., 1995, Horizontal Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60 (14), 1637- treme WNP and AU monsoon phase. link between MRG waves and local factors which ticularly apparent during DJF follow significant waves, with the exception of the MRG wave and vertical structure of observed tropospheric 1654, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<1637:CCE- A lower rate of local precipitation is shown for regulate convection over Indonesia, with exceptions precipitation patterns within Kelvin wave envelopes in Makassar during an extreme WNP monsoon equatorial Rossby waves, Journal of Geophysics WAN>2.0.CO;2 MRG waves for both WNP and AU monsoon in Makassar during the WNP monsoon phase (see Fig. 3), which is in agreement with the previous phase. 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However, a peak positive anomaly Local atmospheric dynamics exhibits only a slight and Makassar exhibit significant low-level westerly non, their influence on convection is significantly • Kiladis G.N., Wheeler M.C., Haertel P.T., Straub soon indices, Climate Dynamics, 43 (5-6), 1423- in Makassar at day +1 during DJF, and in Mana- divergence in wind direction between the morning winds which coincide with significant precipitation connected to local scale factors, particularly during K.H., Roundy P.E., 2009, Convectively couple 1437, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1956-9 do at day 0 during JAS, coincides with the positive (00Z) and the evening (12Z) (Fig. 9). Thus, clima- during the WNP monsoon phase. Even though an extreme WNP monsoon phase over the region equatorial waves, Reviews of Geophysics, 47 (2), • Zhao C., Li T., Zhou T., 2013, Precursor signals MRG perturbation area (Fig. 5), which confirms tological multi-level wind is primarily controlled there is quite a strong westerly wind during DFJ of Indonesia. A lack of relationship shown by ER DOI: 10.1029/2008RG000266 and processes associated with MJO initiation a relationship between local factors and MRG waves, by global scale phenomena rather than a local scale over Padang at 00 and 12 Z, the convection cluster and MRG waves with local factors during both • Liebmann B., dan Hendon H.H., 1990, Synop- over the tropical Indian Ocean, Journal of Climate, even though anomalies are less extreme (cf. Horin- factors which exhibit daily variability. and Kelvin positive perturbation area do not follow extreme WNP and AU monsoon phases (except tic-scale disturbances near the equator, Journal 26 (1), 291-307, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00113.1 Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Social network analysis of local water user associations’ actors: evidence from Iran Volume 8 | Issue 1 Hamid Basati, Alireza Poursaeid, Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari, Roya Eshraghi Samani, Hamed Chaharsoqi Amin

1. INTRODUCTION Social network analysis (SNA) focuses management to maintain and develop water Water is an important factor in agriculture on the structure of ties within a set of social resources. This is mainly because poor social and plays a decisive role in economic growth actors, e.g., persons, groups, organizations, capital and the lack of unity among individuals and development. Water scarcity is a growing and nations, or the products of human activity would impair trust and participation, and con- concern in most developing countries, calling or cognition such as web sites, semantic con- sequently, good governance would challenge for more advanced patterns of water consump- cepts, and so on (Carrington et al. 2005; Tu- water resources. Ebrahimi et al. (2014) analyzed tion and sound irrigation policies (Hadizadeh lin et al. 2018). It was developed in the 1930s a social network of stakeholders in the Water et al. 2018; Valizadeh et al. 2019). According to investigate the link between local patterns Management Action Plan for Water Resources to the National Drought and Crisis Manage- of human relationships and social processes, in Jajroud River and concluded that strengthen- ment Agency of Iran’s Meteorological Organiza- such as the impact of social groups on the likeli- ing social cohesion and social capital among lo- tion (2016), Iran has been suffering from mild hood of being obese (Farine, Whitehead 2015). cal stakeholders was a requirement for the Wa- drought for the last 5 years, and the last wet year The aim of social network analysis is to under- ter Resources Participatory Water Management of the country occurred at around 2006-2007. stand a community by mapping the relation- Action Plan to achieve water sustainability Considering that about 70 percent of the global ships that connect its members as a network and security. Other researchers, e.g., Facon Social network analysis of local water resources are consumed by agricultural and then trying to draw out key individuals, (2002) and Kadirbeyoglu and Ozertan (2011), activities, the actors of this economic sector groups within the network (‘components’), mentioned the lack of social capital as a rea- water user associations’ actors: must develop and adopt mechanisms for bal- and/or associations between individuals (Bodin, son for the failure of irrigation management anced and optimal water consumption (Amin- Crona 2009). This approach will generate dia- transfer. In this regard, Ababneh and Al Adwan ian 2009). Thus, given the water resource cri- grams that will show the relationships between (2012) and GTZ (2010) report that the lack evidence from Iran sis and the management crisis that have been individuals, contained in data. of a legal framework for the transfer of irriga- plaguing many of the provinces and watersheds Since the late 1980s, the tendency to trans- tion management, infrastructure erosion, social Hamid Basati, Alireza Poursaeid, Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari*, Roya Eshraghi Samani, Hamed Chaharsoqi Amin of the country in recent years, participatory fer water resource management and irrigation factors, and negative experiences with previous- Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran, e-mail: [email protected] management and stakeholder participation networks from the public sector to water user ly implemented participatory projects will result *Department of Agricultural Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran in planning and decision making can facilitate associations (WUAs) has been enhancing in- in the failure of irrigation management transfer DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/116668 and accelerate the achievement of sustainability creasingly with the use of exploiter participa- to farmers. The results of a study by Lienert in water resource management while increasing tion, as this is the case in many water-scarce et al. (2013) on the existing policies for wa-

90 confidence in success. countries as the national determination ter infrastructure in Switzerland, using SNA, 91 Ilam province is currently suffering from and politics (Sajasi et al. 2014). In fact, compa- showed that this approach could provide ap- a lack of water resources (Regional Water Com- nies such as local WUAs have been established propriate and good results that could be used pany of Ilam Province 2016). In addition to se- to operate and maintain water management to address various problems in stakeholder rela- vere water scarcity, the enforcement of a subsidy networks, with the main objective of optimiz- tionships, affecting decision-making and water reform, the increase in water and energy costs, ing water resources management for sustainable policy issues. Similarly, Stein et al. (2011) ana- and the imminent implementation of fair water development (Mirzai et al. 2011). These com- lyzed the role of social networks and the impact distribution, which will not be efficient under panies use human, physical and natural capital of these networks on good water management the status quo of agricultural water use in the re- in the framework of participatory management practices in a water basin in Tanzania. The result gion, will increase production costs and decrease for sustainable development. Therefore, WUAs emphasized the application of network analysis income, thereby further complicating the agri- represent the first form of a participatory man- as a systematic way of describing the relations cultural problems of the region. A reasonable agement approach adopted by the water man- between local stakeholders for water governance solution for these problems is the adoption agement sector (Hassabou, El-Gafy 2007). and considered the presence of local leaders of participatory management of agricultural Various studies have examined WUAs in Iran in the villages as one of the main components ABSTRACT. The purpose of this study was to investigate social network analysis (SNA) indicators of actors among exploiters, members of local water user water use and the improvement of irrigation and other countries, approaching the subject of this process. associations (WUA), and their boards of directors in Ilam Province, Iran. The network analysis method and Ucinet6 software were used to examine the information efficiency (Nejadrezaei et al. 2018). However, matter from different dimensions. For exam- Fliervoet et al. (2016) conducted a social exchange network and the network of participation among the members of the WUAs across the province. The actors of the local WUAs in the study area to implement water resources management, ple, a study conducted by Sabouri et al. (2014) network analysis of floodplain management included the Water Supply Organization, the Agri-Bank, the Agricultural and Natural Resources Management Organization, the Agriculture Organization, it is necessary to consider important social com- showed that member farmers had higher par- in the Dutch Rhine Delta and showed the Department of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare, the Provincial Government, the Village Council and Rural Municipalities, the Agricultural Insurance ponents and influential indicators. Social capital ticipation in social activities than non-member the dependence of non-governmental actors Fund, and the Regional Water Company of the province. Among the experts, one was selected from each organization or administration via the purposeful is one of the important factors in the relation- farmers, along with a larger network of social on the main governmental organizations. sampling method. A questionnaire containing 20 items with a Likert-type scale was designed for data collection, and the actors active in the field of local WUAs ship among stakeholders, which is investigated relationships, higher social trust, and strong so- It seems that the Dutch governmental organi- were asked to determine the information exchange rate and the participation of their organization/administration with other organizations/administrations. on the basis of network analysis methodology cial cohesion, benefitting from further activities zations still play a dominant and controlling In addition, the relationship between the active actors and local WUAs was examined from the perspective of the actors in the province. The results prior to the implementation of participatory and promotional programs. In this regard, Salari role in floodplain management, challenging of the analysis of the density index at the whole level of the information exchange network and the participation network showed that the density of the links water resources management and any water-re- et al. (2015) assessed the social capital of the local the alleged shift from a dominant government to exchange information and participate in the network of actors was low across the provincial WUAs. In total, according to network density indicators, network lated projects based on the participation of local stakeholder network of water in the customary towards collaborative governance and calling for size, centrality (concentration) of the entire network, and the social cohesion of the information exchange network and the network of participation were communities, leading to a deeper understand- system of Resin Village with respect to local wa- a detailed analysis of actual governance. Chaffin ranked to be weak to moderate. ing of the challenges and opportunities faced ter management. Their results emphasize the use et al. (2016) presented a method for resolving by managers and planners. In general, social of the SNA method in local water management, this problem by describing the results of an insti- KEYWORDS: Social network analysis, actors, WUAs, Ilam Province. capital has a positive effect on the interaction and the authors noted that the use of this meth- tutional SNA aimed at characterizing the chang- of participants in a social network (Kim, Hastak od and the measurement of social capital would ing governance network in the Klamath River SUBMITTED: 16 August 2019 | REVISED: 14 November 2019 | ACCEPTED: 14 November 2019 2018). contribute to improving participatory water Basin, USA, during a period of contested nego- Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Social network analysis of local water user associations’ actors: evidence from Iran Volume 8 | Issue 1 Hamid Basati, Alireza Poursaeid, Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari, Roya Eshraghi Samani, Hamed Chaharsoqi Amin

Table 1. Actors of Local Water User Associations in Ilam Province Table 3. Review of the information exchange network and the participation network in the current situation among actors from their point of view

Duration of the Abbreviation Actors Interviewee Items interview (min) of actors Actors View of the actors Water Supply Organization Co-operative Managing Director 60 ACO No relation Low High Very high Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 29 83 253 0 Agri-Bank Deputy Chief and Supervisor 35 AB Regional Water Company Agricultural and Natural Resources Management Organization Head of the organization 35 ANO Views of actors about the participation network (people) 20 229 116 0 Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 48 330 14 0 Agriculture Organization Technical deputy 45 AO Agricultural Insurance Fund Department of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare Deputy Director-General of Cooperatives 40 COA Views of actors about the participation network (people) 45 302 18 0 Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 19 45 301 0 Provincial Government Deputy of planning 30 GO Water Supply Cooperative Village Council and Rural Municipalities Presidency of the Council 55 IC Views of actors about the participation network (people) 3 114 248 0 Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 20 327 18 0 Agricultural Insurance Fund Agricultural insurance expert 35 IFA Agri-Bank Regional Water Company Expert on Ilam Regional Water Distribution 30 WO Views of actors about the participation network (people) 52 289 24 0 Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 200 155 10 0 Agricultural and Natural Resources Engineering Organization Views of actors about the participation network (people) 207 156 2 0 Table 2. Important indicators in social network analysis (source: Bodin, Crona 2009; Ghorbani et al. 2013; Rezaei et al. 2015) Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 30 324 11 0 Indicators Description Village Council and Rural Municipalities Views of actors about the participation network (people) 268 66 31 0 The ratio of all available ties to all possible ties. Therefore, the density is referred to as the number of ties associated with a node and, in other words, nodes that are related Density Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 92 263 10 0 to the considered node. Department of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare Views of actors about the participation network (people) 92 263 10 0 Centrality The strength of a node based on the amount of relation on the network. Centrality can be discussed regarding the location of the node, the type of tie, and the relation. Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 83 194 88 0 In-degree centrality The number of nodes that an actor receives. A high in-degree reflects a person’s reputation or authority. Agriculture Organization Views of actors about the participation network (people) 183 120 62 0 Out-degree cen- The number of nodes leaving an actor. The high out-degree indicates the influence of the actor, which is further discussed in the data transmission network. trality Views of actors about the information exchange network (people) 344 20 1 0 Provincial Government Reciprocity This indicator plays a role in determining the sustainability of the network and is obtained by examining the interaction between actors. Views of actors about the participation network (people) 344 20 1 0 This indicator comes from sharing ties between three individuals, one of which is the bridge between the two other people. As the number of people transporting ties is Transitivity higher, this rate is higher, and as a result, relationships sustain among actors. Table 4. Indicators of network analysis of actors of local water user associations Network size The number of ties in a network of relations. As the number of ties increases, the density will increase in the network of relations. links (input) (output) available available based on based on Link type relations)

tiations over water. The results showed that em- and cooperation, and the survival and sustain- Province are Eyvan County, Chardavol Coun- Number of (number of Density [%] Density Centrality of Centrality Centrality of Centrality internal links internal Network size size Network external links external total network network total total network network total organizations Total expected expected Total Total centrality Total Transitivity [%] Transitivity ploying this type of SNA is useful for describing ability of the relations between actors depend ty, Sirvan County, Ilam County, Malekshahi [%] Reciprocity potential and actual transitions in governance on the trust of individuals. Also, trust can play County, Mehran County, Badreh County, Dar- that yield increases in adaptive capacity to re- an important role in resolving disputes and con- reh Shahr County, Abdanan County, and De- Information exchange 9 420 299 36.7 55.5 32.35 15.65 26.73 36.7 Participation 9 420 296 36.5 55.5 32.47 13.16 29.78 36.5 92 spond to social and biophysical surprises such flicts among exploiters in the process of water hloran County. The northern region of Ilam, 93 as increasing water scarcity and changes in water resource management (Bodin, Prell 2011). due to its high elevation, experiences cold win- distribution. The results of various studies show that the use ters and mild summers and receives the high- work and the network of participation among There are many indicators to analyze social ment of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Wel- Ogada et al. (2017) used stakeholder analysis of social network analysis is effective in local wa- est amount of precipitation in the province. the members of WUAs across the province. networks. One of the main indicators is central- fare, the Provincial Government, the Village and social network analysis to analyze stakehold- ter governance and measuring social capital can The variety of land is one of the main reasons This software is one of the most widely ity, according to which the in-degree centrality Council and Rural municipalities, the Agri- ers’ social and structural characteristics based improve participatory water management in or- for the prevalence of nomads in the area (Aliak- used social network analysis software pack- is the degree of reputation and authority of each cultural Insurance Fund, and the Regional on their interests, influence, and interactions der to conserve and develop water resources. Be- bari et al. 2015). ages to draw up social networks and create actor and the out-degree centrality indicates Water Company of the province. One expert regarding the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya. In- cause the weakness of social capital and the lack and display multiple relations in these net- the social or political influence of the actor. was selected from each organization or ad- teractions in the basin are guided by stakehold- of unity and unity among individuals will lead 2.2. SAMPLES works. It uses a set of nodes representing Also, indicators such as density, reciprocity, ministration. In total, according to Table 3, ers’ interest and sphere of influence, which have to a loss of trust and participation, this will AND DATA COLLECTION the variables of the research and a series transitivity, and network size are among the in- Water Supply Cooperatives and Regional Wa- both promoted participation in implementing challenge the adequate governance of water re- A survey study was designed for data collection. of ties between nodes to show the relations dicators used in this study (Table 2). The values ter Companies of the province were the main a collaborative water governance framework. sources. Therefore, the purpose of the present The statistical population of the study was com- and drawings within the social network. for each index are calculated from 100; values and most important actors from the perspec- According to a previous study, the establish- study was to investigate the indicators of social posed of the actors of the local Ilam WUAs, The social network can quantitate the qual- below 50 indicate a weak index, and values tive of local WUAs, and the Agricultural ment of local WUAs has accelerated the network analysis of actors among exploiters, including the Water Supply Organization, itative data using mathematics, and thus, above 50 indicate a strong index. and Natural Resources Engineering Organi- development of water distribution networks, members of local WUAs, and their boards of di- the Agri-Bank, the Agricultural and Natural the differences are generally represented zation and the Provincial Government were and exploiters have been encouraged to partic- rectors in Ilam Province. Resources Management Organization, the Agri- in the form of a series of indicators, enabling 3. RESULTS the two actors that most organizations were ipate financially and to exploit water manage- culture Organization, the Department of Coop- comparisons and analysis (Alizadeh, Siddiqi 3.1. INFORMATION EXCHANGE unrelated to. ment systems (Heydarian 2003). On the other 2. METHODOLOGY eratives, Labor and Social Welfare, the Provincial 2013). In the study of the existing status NETWORK hand, researchers have considered the increased 2.1. STUDY AREA Government, the Village Council and Rural of actors in the local Ilam WUAs, a question- AND PARTICIPATION 3.2. RELATIONSHIP social cohesion, development of social partici- Ilam Province, one of the 31 provinces of Iran, Municipalities, the Agricultural Insurance Fund, naire composed of 20 items with a Likert- NETWORK AMONG OF ACTORS ON THE pation, and, most importantly, the mutual trust is located in the western part of the country, and the Regional Water Company of the prov- type scale (no relationship to very strong ACTORS OF LOCAL WUAS ACTIVITIES OF LOCAL WUAS of individuals as the necessary conditions for bordering Iraq. In 2014, it was placed in Region ince. During data collection in 2018, one person relationship) was designed, and the active To examine the information exchange net- WITHIN INFORMATION the development of any society (e.g., Bhaga- 4. Covering an area of 19,086 square kilometers from each organization or administration was actors in the field of provincial WUAs (Table work and the actor participation network, EXCHANGE NETWORKS vatula et al. 2010). Trust is the main factor (about 4.1% of Iran), Ilam Province shares its selected as a contact person (Table 1). 1) were asked to express the amount of in- actors were asked to determine the extent AND PARTICIPATION of development and one of the most important borders with three neighboring Iranian provinc- formation exchange and the participation rate of their work relationship with other actors NETWORKS components of social capital. There is a signif- es and Iraq: Khuzestan Province in the south, 2.3. DATA ANALYSIS of their organization/administration with in the province on a Likert scale. The actors The structural analysis of the social network icant relationship between the level of trust Lurestan Province in the east, Kermanshah We used a quantitative research approach other organizations/administrations during of the local WUAs in the province of Ilam of actors of local WUAs at the provincial level and the development of societies, and there- Province in the north, and Iraq in the west, with in terms of paradigm; the survey was ap- 1 year. In addition, the relationship between include the Water Supply Organization, was studied in the form of an information ex- fore, developed societies have higher levels 425 kilometers of common border. The popula- plied and descriptive. The network analysis active actors with respect to the local WUA the Agri-Bank, the Agricultural and Natu- change network and a participation network. of trust than other societies (Fukuyama 2001). tion of the province is approximately 600,000 method and the Ucinet6 software were used in the province was examined from the per- ral Resources Management Organization, The indicators examined for SNA are presented In fact, trust is a precondition for participation people (2015 estimate). The counties of Ilam to examine the information exchange net- spective of actors. the Agriculture Organization, the Depart- in Table 4. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Social network analysis of local water user associations’ actors: evidence from Iran Volume 8 | Issue 1 Hamid Basati, Alireza Poursaeid, Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari, Roya Eshraghi Samani, Hamed Chaharsoqi Amin

in Figure 1, the Agriculture Organization tion network (interactions) of the local WUAs Regional Water Company (WO) Regional Water Company (WO) of the province is considered the main actor was 55.5 percent, indicating the sustainability Agricultural Insurance Fund (IFA) Agricultural Insurance Fund (IFA) in social influence and has the most public rela- of the participation network. Also, the value Village Council and Rural Municipalities (IC) tionships with other actors in the field of infor- of the transitivity index of 32.47 percent rep- Village Council and Rural Municipalities (IC) Provincial Government (GO) mation exchange. The Provincial Government resents the poor sustainability of the participa- Provincial Government (GO) Department of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare… and the Department of Cooperatives, Labor tion network of local WUA actors. Therefore, Department of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare…

Agriculture Organization (AO) and Social Welfare are at the next ranks of so- considering the reciprocity and the transitivi- Agriculture Organization (AO) cial influence. The Islamic Council and Rural ty of the links, network sustainability is weak Agricultural and Natural Resources Management… Agricultural and Natural Resources Management… Municipalities are ranked the last in social in- to moderate. Agri-Bank (AB) Agri-Bank (AB) fluence in terms of information exchange. Al- To examine the role of various organizations Water Supply Organization (ACO) though Water Supply Companies and the Re- in the participation network of local WUAs, Water Supply Organization (ACO) 0102030405060 gional Water Company have good centrality the in- and out-degree centralities were calcu- 0102030405060 Out-degree centrality In-degree centrality in information exchange and are highly trusted lated (Fig. 2). Out-degree centrality In-degree centrality and authority actors, they are in a lower posi- According to Figure 2, the Agriculture Orga- Fig. 1. In- and out-degree centrality in the information exchange network of actors of the local WUAs tion in terms of out-degree centrality and social nization of Ilam Province had the highest in-de- Fig. 2. In- and out-degree centrality in the participation network of local WUAs influence (out-degree centrality of 35). gree centrality (46), followed by the Regional 3.3. INFORMATION EXCHANGE Given that the reciprocity index of links Water Company (41) and the Water Supply Accordingly, if there is a link between the two et al. (2015) and Sabouri et al. (2014). There- NETWORK FROM THE expresses the mutuality of the relationships 3.4. PARTICIPATION NETWORK Cooperative (40) with the highest reputation actors of the local WUAs, there is a participation fore, participatory management in local WUAs PERSPECTIVE OF LOCAL in the network, it can be stated that network FROM THE PERSPECTIVE and power among the actors of the local WUAs, link between the two actors of the local WUAs is challenging, and efforts to increase the density WUA ACTORS sustainability has a direct relationship with OF LOCAL WUA ACTORS considered the most trusted actors in the field with the probability of 1 percent. Thus, the in- of these associations are essential. The result of the analysis of the density index the reciprocity rate of links. According to the re- The low density value of 36.5 percent in the links of participation. This indicates the awareness formation exchange network serves as a starting Based on the results, the Regional Water at the total level of the information exchange sults, the reciprocity of links in the information of the participation network of actors of local of other actors about the role of these two sets point and the foundation or facilitating factor for Company, with the highest in-degree central- network shows that the size of this index was exchange network of actors of local WUAs was WUAs represents social cohesion and, conse- in the field of local WUAs in the province. How- the participation network. ity, and the Water Supply Cooperative have 36.7 percent at the total level of information 55.5 percent. Therefore, based on this indicator, quently, poor social capital in the participation ever, according to the actors, the Islamic Coun- the first and second highest authority and rep- exchange links (Table 4). This value indicates it can be said that the sustainability of the infor- network of actors of local WUAs. According cil and the Agricultural Engineering Organiza- 4. DISCUSSION utation, respectively, and are the most trusted the low density of information exchange links mation exchange network is moderate. In addi- to the results of the study, the participation tion have the lowest position in participation AND CONCLUSION actors in the information exchange network

94 in the network of actors in the local WUAs tion to the reciprocity index, the index of transi- network size is 296 links of the 420 expected in terms of authority and reputation, and there As previously stated, social network analysis of local WUAs in the province. However, ac- 95 in the province. Since the density is directly re- tivity of the links also indicates the sustainability links, suggesting that more than half of the ex- is a need to strengthen their position. The high is a new approach to planning for participatory cording to the views of the actors, the Depart- lated to social cohesion, the level of social cohe- of the network in that the value of this index pected links have been formed in the participa- out-degree of centrality represents the actor’s water resources management. By studying social ment of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare sion was also weak. was 32.35 percent according to the results tion network. Based on the network size index, influence. According to Figure 2, the De- networks using network analysis techniques, and the Provincial Government have the low- According to the results, the size of the study, indicating that sustainability the density and subsequent social cohesion partment of Cooperatives, Labor and Social researchers can identify challenges to partici- est position among the actors in terms of in- of the network shows 299 connections from is weak in the information exchange net- of the network are moderate. To investigate Welfare, he Agriculture Organization, the Pro- patory processes in the management of water formation input degree, and this finding does all expected links (420 cases), that is, more work. In general, according to the two indi- social cohesion, the index of total centrali- vincial Government, the Regional Water Com- resources (Bodin, Crona 2009). The results not seem desirable. According to the results, than half of the expected links have been cators of reciprocity and transitivity of links, ty (total concentration) was also examined; pany, and the Water Supply Cooperative with of this study show that Water Supply Companies the Agriculture Organization, the Regional formed. As the size of the network increases, network sustainability is weak to moderate. based on the results (Table 4), the concentra- the highest out-degree centrality values (47, and the Regional Water Company of the prov- Water Company, and local WUAs are the most the density of the network also increases. Thus, To investigate the role of different organizations tion of the network has increased on the basis 44, 42, and 35) are the most influential actors, ince are the main and most important actors trusted actors and enjoy greater influence. based on the size of the network, the densi- in the information exchange network, the val- of external links to the internal links in the par- while the Insurance Fund has the lowest level from the viewpoint of the actors of local WUAs, Therefore, these organizations can be used ty and social cohesion are at a moderate level. ues of the in- and out-degree centrality were ticipation network. This means that according in terms of social participation in the partner- while the Agricultural and Natural Resources to encourage exploiters and actors to partici- Another indicator focused on to study so- compared (Fig. 1). to the internal links of the network, it has not ship network. According to Figure 2, the Islam- Engineering Organization and the Provincial pate with each other and to strengthen the role cial cohesion is the centrality (centration) The in-degree centrality is the number been dependent on the central actors and their ic Council and the Rural Municipalities not Government are two actors that most organiza- of other organizations in the network of rela- of the entire network based on internal and ex- of nodes that an actor receives. A high in-de- activity monopoly, and more people are effec- only have a weak position in terms of authority tions are unrelated to. Therefore, the strength- tions between actors. ternal links. According to the results (Table 4), gree reflects the reputation or authority tive in receiving participation. However, based and reputation, but they also require further at- ening of relationships with these organizations The transitivity rate of the links also reflects the focus of the network has increased more of an actor. According to Figure 1, the Region- on external links, the dispersion of participation tention and improvement in relation to social is necessary, and measures should be taken the poor sustainability of the participation net- on the basis of external links than on the inter- al Water Company, with the highest in-degree and participatory activities occurs by fewer in- influence (their in- and out-degree centralities to facilitate the relationship with these organi- work of local WUAs; therefore, considering nal links in the information exchange network. centrality (41), followed by the Water Supply dividuals. In comparison with the information were 30 and 29, respectively). zations, such as the reduction of the administra- the reciprocity and transitivity of the links, This means that it was not affiliated with cen- Cooperatives, with an in-degree centrality exchange network, dispersion of participation The QAP indicator is used in the Ucinet tive bureaucracy process. network sustainability is weak to moderate. tral actors based on internal links or network of (40), had the highest authority and reputa- is made in the form of a more compact struc- software to examine the correlation between The results of the analysis of the density index The Agriculture Organization in the province information reception; receiving information tion and are therefore the most trusted actors ture because the centrality of the participation the links of the information exchange network at the whole level of the information exchange of Ilam, with the highest in-degree centrality, is not in their monopoly, and more people are in the information exchange network of local network is more based on the external links and the partnership network. Based on this in- network show that the density in the links and the Regional Water Company and Water effective in information reception. However, WUAs of the province. However, the actors be- than the information exchange network. In gen- dicator, the correlation between two networks of information exchange in the network of ac- Supply Cooperative have the highest reputation according to external links, the dispersion of in- lieved that the Department of Cooperatives, La- eral, according to the network density indica- of information exchange and participation has tors of local WUAs in the province is low. Tak- and authority among the actors of the provincial formation is monopolized by limited and fewer bor and Social Welfare, and the Provincial Gov- tors, network size and total network centrality a high coefficient value (correlation coefficient = en together, according to the network density WUAs and are therefore considered the most individuals. In total, according to the indica- ernment had the lowest position among actors (concentration), actor participation network, 0.95), and the significance level of the correlation indicators, the network size, the centrality (con- trusted actors in the field of participation. tors of the network density, network size, cen- in terms of information in-degree, and this find- social cohesion, and social capital are weak between these two networks is zero. This value ex- centration) of the entire network, and the social This indicates the high awareness and famil- trality (concentration) of the entire network, ing does not seem desirable. to moderate. presses the significance of the correlation between cohesion of the information exchange network iarity of other actors with the role of the two and the social cohesion of the information ex- A high out-degree centrality also reflects Based on the results presented in Table 4, the two links of information exchange and par- are at a weak to moderate level. These results are sets in the field of local WUAs in the province. change network are weak to moderate. the influence of an actor. Thus, as evident the reciprocity of the links in the participa- ticipation at the significance level of 1 percent. consistent with the results obtained by Taghipour According to the actors, the Islamic Council Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Social network analysis of local water user associations’ actors: evidence from Iran Volume 8 | Issue 1 Hamid Basati, Alireza Poursaeid, Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari, Roya Eshraghi Samani, Hamed Chaharsoqi Amin

and the Agricultural Engineering Organiza- ital influence opportunity recognition and re- • Hadizadeh F., Allahyari M.S., Damalas C.A., • Ogada J.O., Krhoda G.O., Veen A.V., Marani M., in the direction of sustainable management • Stein C., Ernstson H., Barron J., 2011, A social tion have the lowest position in participation source mobilization in India’s hand loom in- Yazdani M.R., 2018, Integrated management Van Oel P.R., 2017, Managing resources through of natural resources (study area: Alborz network approach to analyzing water gov- in terms of authority and reputation and are dustry, Journal of Business Venturing, 25 (3), of agricultural water resources among paddy stakeholder networks: collaborative water dam basin in Mazandaran Province), Journal ernance: the case of the Mkindo catch- therefore advised to improve their position. 245-260, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.10.006 farmers in northern Iran, Agricultural Water governance for Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya, of Range and Watershed Management, Iranian ment, Tanzania, Physics and Chemistry In addition, the Department of Cooperatives, • Bodin Ö., Crona B.I., 2009, The role of social Management, 200, 19-26, DOI: 10.1016/j.ag- Journal Water International, 42 (3), 271-290, Journal of Natural Resources, 68 (1), 65-80 of the Earth, 36 (14-15), 1085-1092, DOI: Labor and Social Welfare, the Agriculture Or- networks in natural resource governance: wat.2017.12.031 DIO: 10.1080/02508060.2017.1292076 • Sabouri F., Rezaei M.K., Mantizadeh M., 2014, 10.1016/j.pce.2011.07.083 ganization, the Provincial Government, the Re- What relational patterns make a difference?, • Hassabou A.H.M., El-Gafy I.K., 2007, Assess- • Pant N., 2008, Key issues in Participatory ir- Investigating the status of social capital • Taghipour M., Abbasi E., Chizari M., Heidari gional Water Company, and the Water Supply Global Environmental Change, 19 (3), 366-374, ment indicators for Water Users’ Associa- rigation management, [in:] Managing water among member and non-member farm- A.G., 2015, Attitudes of farmers in Gachsaran Cooperative exhibit the highest out-degree cen- DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.05.002 tions in Egypt, E-WAter, Official Publication in the face of growing scarcity, inequality ers of agricultural associations: case study county to the formation of water supply coop- trality and are the most influential actors. How- • Bodin O., Prell C., 2011, Social network in nat- of the European Water Association (EWA), and declining returns: exploring fresh ap- of Garmsar farmers, Cooperatives and Agri- eratives, Cooperatives and Agriculture, 2 (6) ever, the Insurance Fund showed the lowest level ural resources management, Cambridge Uni- available online at http://www.ewa-online.eu/ proaches, M.D. Kumar (ed.), Proceedings culture, 3 (11), 95-117 • Tulin M., Pollet T.V., Lehmann-Willenbrock N., in terms of social participation in the partner- versity Press, 390 pp. tl_files/_media/content/documents_pdf/Pub- of the 7th annual Partner Meet, IWMI TATA • Sajasi K.H., Mahdavi F.G.R., Rajabi J.D.S., 2014, 2018, Perceived group cohesion versus actual ship network. According to the results, the Is- • Carrington P.J., Scott J., Wasserman S., 2005, lications/E-WAter/documents/26_2007_02. Water Policy Research Program, ICRISAT, Prioritizing the establishment of Water User social structure: a study using social network lamic Council and the Rural Municipalities not Models and methods in social network anal- pdf (data access 17.01.2020) 2-4 April 2008 Patancheru, Hyderabad, India, Association in rural areas (case study: Villag- analysis of egocentric Facebook networks, only have no good position in terms of authori- ysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, • Heydarian S.A., 2003, Management transfer: Vol. 2, 541-557 es of Salami Village in Khaf County), Journal Social Science Research, 74, 161-175, DOI: ty and reputation, but they also need to improve 328 pp. methods, barriers and Solutions, [in:] The third • Qiao G., Zhao L., Klein K.K., 2009, Water of Rural Development Strategies, 1 (1), 57-69 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2018.04.004 their position with respect to social influence. • Chaffin B.C., Garmestani A.S., Gosnell H., Craig technical workshop on water supply participa- user associations in Inner Mongolia: factors • Salari F., Ghorbani M., Malekian A., 2015, • Valizadeh N., Bijani M., Hayati D., 2019, Based on the results, to improve the social cohe- R.K., 2016, Institutional networks and adaptive tion in managing irrigation networks, 25-80 that influence farmers to join, Agricultur- An analysis of the local social networking A comparative analysis of behavioral the- sion and participation of the exploiters of the lo- water governance in the Klamath River Basin, • Kadibeyoglu Z., Ozertan G., 2011, Users’ per- al Water Management, 9 (5), 822-830, DOI: of local beneficiaries for local water manage- ories towards farmers’ water conservation, cal WUAs, several training courses are proposed USA, Environmental Science & Policy, 57, 112- ceptions of Water User Associations: evidence 10.1016/j.agwat.2008.11.001 ment (case study: Resin Basin in Kermanshah), International Journal of Agricultural Manage- to familiarize people with WUAs and their lim- 121, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.11.008 from three cases in Turkey, Working Papers, 1, • Rezaie A., Hosseini S.M., Asadi A., 2015, Anal- Journal of Range and Watershed Manage- ment and Development, 9 (1), DOI: 10.22004/ itations. Quantity orientation is also prohibited • Ebrahimi F., Ghorbani M., Salajeghah A., 29 pp. ysis of the information exchange network ment, 68 (2), 287-305 ag.econ.292562 in the establishment of cooperatives, and few Mohseni Saravi M., 2014, Analysis of local so- • Kazbekov J., Abdullaev I., Manthrithilake H., WUAs should be established, but consciously cial network of local beneficiaries in action re- Qureshi A., Jumaboev K., 2009, Evaluating and with awareness of the people. It is sug- search of water resources management (case planning and delivery performance of Water gested to create and strengthen social capital study: Jajroud Basin, Darbandsar Village), User Associations (WUAs) in Osh Province, Iranian Journal of Engineering and Watershed Kyrgyzstan, Agricultural Water Manage- 96 in the villages by associations through the ex- 97 pression of the importance of collective actions Management, 8 (25), 47-56 ment, 96 (8), 1259-1267, DOI: 10.1016/j.ag- in the form of associations and co-operatives • Facon T., 2002, Downstream of irrigation wa- wat.2009.04.002 and the common interests of these activities ter pricing – the infrastructure design and op- • Kim J., Hastak M., 2018, Social network anal- through radio, television programs, and visiting erational management considerations, paper ysis: characteristics of online social net- successful associations. presented at the conference: Irrigation Wa- works after a disaster, International Journal ter Policies: Micro and Macro Considerations, of Information Management, 38 (1), 86-96, REFERENCES Agadir, Morocco, 15-17 June 2002 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2017.08.003 • Ababneh Z., Al Adwan A., 2012, Water users • Farine D.R., Whitehead H., 2015, Constructing, • Lienert J., Schnetzer F., Ingold K., 2013, Stake- association in the Jordan Valley, Sustainable conducting and interpreting animal social net- holder analysis combined with social network Water Integrated Management (SWIM) work analysis, Journal of Animal Ecology, 84 analysis provides fine-grained insights into • Aliakbari M., Gheitasi M., Anonby E., 2015, (5), 1144-1163, DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12418 water infrastructure planning processes, Jour- On language distribution in Ilam Province, • Fliervoet J.M., Geerling G.W., Mostert E., Smits nal of Environmental Management, 125, 134- Iran, Iranian Studies, 48 (6), 835-850, DOI: A.J.M., 2016, Analyzing collaborative gover- 148, DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.052 10.1080/00210862.2014.913423 nance through social network analysis: a case • Mirzai A., Mirdamadi S.M., Hosseini S.M., 2011, • Alizadeh N., Seddiqi H., 2013, Processing study of river management along the Waal Water supply cooperatives: a new approach and analyzing data in a sociometric method River in the Netherlands, Environmental to collaborative irrigation management, Jour- using Ucinet6 software, First edition, Universi- Management, 57 (2), 355-367, DOI: 10.1007/ nal of Agricultural Engineering and Natural ty Jahad Publishing (Tehran Branch) s00267-015-0606-x Resources Engineering, 7 (27), 18-22 • Aminian F., 2009, Investigating the econom- • Fukuyama F., 2001, Social capital, civil society • Najafi N., Khosravi P.B., Ghanian M., Barada- ic value of agricultural water (case study: and development, Third World Quarterly, 22 raan M., Dahmavi A., 2013., Identifying the bar- Damghan groundwater resources), Master’s (1), 7-20 riers to the success of water supply associa- Thesis, Tabriz University, Iran • Ghorbani M., Azarnivand H., Mehrabi A.A., tions in the view of the exploiters of the North • Asadpour H., Ahmadi G., Taslimi M., 2009, In- Bastaani S., Jafari M., Nayebi H., 2013, Social and South Karkheh Areas of Khuzestan Prov- vestigation of the performance of water user network analysis; A new approach in policy ince, Rural Research, 4 (1), 165-188 association in the country in recent years, making and planning of participatory manage- • Nejadrezaei N., Allahyari M.S., Sadeghzadeh Sixth Iranian Agriculture Economics Confer- ment of natural resources, Journal of Range M., Michailidis A., El Bilali H., 2018, Factors ence, Islamic Azad University, Dezful Branch, and Watershed Management, 65 (4), 553-568 affecting adoption of pressurized irrigation Iran • GTZ, 2010, Water User Associations (WUA): technology among olive farmers in North- • Bhagavatula S., Elfring T., Tilburg A., Gerhard The story of participative irrigation manage- ern Iran, Applied Water Science, 8 (6), DOI: G., Bunt V., 2010, How social and human cap- ment in the Jordan Valley. Amman: GTZ 10.1007/s13201-018-0819-2 Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Environmental modeling in small catchments in the context of climate change: Reda case study Volume 8 | Issue 1 Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Ewa Jakusik, Magdalena Skonieczna, Łukasz Woźniak

1. INTRODUCTION in BSR. One of the pilot catchments for the proj- As a consequence of increased anthropogen- ect was the Reda catchment, Poland. The Reda ic greenhouse gas emissions, it is hypothesised river catchment was chosen as a pilot study area that the Earth’s climate will be warmer in the fu- because it is the largest river that drains water into ture (IPCC 2018). This change will mainly af- the Bay of Puck where it has a significant impact fect future generations and the scale of warming on the water quality. The waters and sediments will depend on the path of development world of the Bay of Puck are characterized by an excessive chooses. Climate change will affect environmen- amount of nutrients. The Pomeranian voivode- tal resources, for example changes in the amount ship spatial development plan (PZPWP 2009) and distribution of precipitation, which will alter stated that the most important factor degrading the human demands for their ecosystem services, coastal waters is excessive discharge of nitrogen as predicted by climate models. and phosphorus compounds and organic sub- The European Union has developed a com- stances, which enter Bay of Puck directly from Fig. 1. The Reda basin location within the Kon- mon approach to environmental issues based the land or through river runoff, which is increased dracki mesoregions (Kondracki 2011) Environmental modeling on the principle of sustainable development, by limited water exchange with the Baltic Sea. which proposes prudent and economical use in small catchments of environmental resources to prevent exces- 2. THE STUDY AREA sive use and degradation which does not lead 2.1. MORPHOLOGY to a deterioration of the quality of life and limit The Reda basin is located in four mesoregions in the context of climate the development potential of future genera- (Kondracki 2011). The northern part is located tions1. The current outlook on climate change, in the Choczewo Heights and the Reda-Łeba as well as the need to take into account a long proglacial valley, while the central and southern change: Reda case study term perspective, does not change the general parts are situated in the Kashubian Lakeland objectives of managing environmental resourc- and the eastern part, where the mouth of the riv- Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Ewa Jakusik, Magdalena Skonieczna, Łukasz Woźniak es. Water provides a key ecosystem service, er Reda is located, lies in the Kashubian Coast- Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, Podleśna 61, 01-673 Warszawa, Poland, e-mail: tomasz. [email protected] hence the principles of its management are par- land mesoregion (Fig. 1). ticularly important. This problem is acknowl- The basin morphology, elevation and distance 98 DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/116667 99 edged globally, resulting in the collaboration from the sea are varied thus local climate is di- Fig. 2. Hypsometric map of the Reda basin of an international community of specialists verse. The highest area is located on the south and surroundings; max. basin elevation: and politicians through the Integrated Water with a maximum elevation 239.5 m a.s.l., while 239.5 m a.s.l. Resources Management (IWRM) framework. the lowest area with elevation about 50 m.a.s.l.s According to Global Water Partnership GWP2, located in the Reda-Łeba floodplain (Fig. 2), Thus, remarkable climate characteristics appear, the IRWM “is a process that promotes coordi- where the mouth of the Reda is located. i.e. lengthened spring and winter transition pe- nated management and development of water The Reda river flows roughly from the south riods, small monthly and diurnal temperature resources, land and related resources in order to the north in the upper basin, before changing amplitude, lower average temperature during to maximize economic and social impact with- course downstream of Zamostne village to run spring than autumn and strong winds with in- out compromising the balance of key ecosys- from west to east. The latitudinal extent of the ba- creasing speed in autumn and winter (Staszek, tems” (Hassing et al. 2009). sin is 0°28′ (about 33 km), with the western parts Kistowski 1999; Miętus et al. 2004). Climate change has a significant impact of the basin located furthest from the sea. on the management of energy and water resources. According to Woś typology (Woś 1993) which 2.2. LAND USE, HYDROGRAPHY, It can cause violent meteorological and hydrologi- refers to the frequency of weather types, the Reda HYDROLOGY cal phenomena as well as changes in the hydrolog- River basin lies in two climatic regions: Lower AND WATER QUALITY ical regime. In the BONUS MIRACLE3 (Mediat- Vistula and Eastern Pomerania. The weather The catchment area of the Reda River is ABSTRACT. The BONUS MIRACLE project focuses on understanding the of the impact of climate change on water environments, including it’s affects ing IntegRated ACtions for sustainable ecosystem in the Lower Vistula region is characterized by ei- 485 km2. According to the data from the Cen- on hydrological regimes and nutrient concentrations. The overall objective of MIRACLE is to initiate a social learning process in collaboration with stakeholders, services in a changing CLimatE) project, anal- ther cool air with high humidity and no precip- tral Statistical Office, more than 206,000 in- that can identify new configurations for governance (conceptual, institutional, and practice based) in order to reduce nutrient enrichment and flood risk ysis of these issues for the small catchment area itation, or frosty and very cool conditions with habitants lived in the Reda River basin in 2015. in the Baltic Sea region. These configurations should be understood as new solutions to protect water resources, ecosystem services and provide win-win of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) was undertaken. high cloud cover and no precipitation. Alterna- The Reda catchment has an asymmetrical hy- solutions. To achieve this environmental modelling of the Reda catchment, Poland, is used as a pilot study for the project. Mathematical models which specified The overall objective of MIRACLE was to enact tively, weather in the Eastern Pomerania region drographic network structure. The catchment the detailed processes associated with water cycles, including determining interconnections and quantifying variables characteristic to the assessment a social learning process that will lead to the iden- is characterized by cool air temperatures, very of the left-bank tributaries is only approxi- of the water resource quantity and quality, were found to be useful. Due to the complexity of some models, launching, entering the appropriate data tification of new configurations for governance cloudy skies and precipitation. mately ¼ of the entire Reda catchment area. in the correct formats and calibrating the models proved to be challenging. Future developments in the water management sector should concentrate (conceptual, institutional, and practice-based) The Baltic Sea – mostly the Gulf of Gdańsk The largest tributary of the Reda is Słuszewska on specific local catchment areas where the application of integrated water resource management principles and the adaptation to climate change are more to reduce nutrient enrichment and flood risk – impact the thermal conditions of the study. Struga which is the right-bank tributary. easily merged with local spatial planning. However, a larger number and higher frequency of measurements would be required.

1 https://ec.europa.eu/environment/eussd/ KEYWORDS: Eutrophication, modeling climate change, nutrient mitigation. 2 https://www.gwp.org/en/GWP-CEE/about/why/what-is-iwrm/ 3 BONUS MIRACLE has received funding from BONUS (Art 185), funded jointly by the EU and the national funding institutions Innovation Fund Denmark, Forschungszentrum Jülich Beteiligu- ngsgesellschaft mbH (FZJ-Bt.GmbH), Latvian Ministry of Education and Science, National Centre for Research and Development in Poland, and the Swedish Research Council for Environment, SUBMITTED: 21 August 2019 | REVISED: 2 December 2019 | ACCEPTED: 5 December 2019 Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS). Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Environmental modeling in small catchments in the context of climate change: Reda case study Volume 8 | Issue 1 Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Ewa Jakusik, Magdalena Skonieczna, Łukasz Woźniak

are connected to the sewer system. Information on rural sewage discharges in the Reda catch- ment were estimated based on data on the popu- lation density outside the main urban areas. Consumption of mineral fertilizers in terms of pure ingredient per 1 hectare (ha) of agricul- tural land in Pomeranian Voivodeship equals 74.8 kg N ha-1 and 18.3 kg P ha-1 in 2015. Compared to the consumption of mineral fer- tilizers in 2010, this was a decrease of ~2.7 kg N ha-1 and 6.6 kg P ha-1, respectively. The highest consumption of mineral N and P was in the ur- ban area of Wejherowo and Luzino commune. The highest consumption of mineral N per ha of agricultural land in the Reda catchment was in the Luzino commune (~67 kg N ha-1). How- ever, this rate is still ~13% lower than the av- erage consumption of fertilizers in the Pomer- Fig. 3. Land cover in the catchment area of Reda River (based on Corine Land Cover 20064) anian Voivodeship. Similarly, consumption Fig. 4. Variability of annual and seasonal maximum, minimum and average temperatures at the Gdynia and Lębork weather stations, between 1967 and 2016 of phosphate fertilizers in the Reda catchment Table 1. Weather stations characteristics included in the analysis was highest in the Luzino commune, with stations, including Gdynia (14 km east), Rębiska and the longer period of 1967-2016, to empha- ary 1970. The 5th percentile of Gdynia daily Weather Initial No. Station Altitude (m a.s.l). Longitude Latitude an avergae consumption lower than in the Po- (2 km south east) and Lębork (17.5 km west), are size the tendency of these changes. minimum temperature occurred in 1987 with station code measurement 1 125 Lębork 1966 38 17°43’ 54°33’ meranian Voivodeship. at variable distances from the catchment (Fig. 2). Linear regression equations (Excel function – the value of –10.4°C. A daily average value 2 1402 Gdynia 1951 2 18°34’ 54°31’ There is a large variation in the total area of ag- Five additional precipitation stations are lo- LINEST) were used to determine the direction in the period was –5.0°C. At Lębork, daily 3 91429 Wejherowo 1951 40 18°14’ 54°36’ ricultural land within communes in the Reda cated within 11 km of the basin. These stations and value of the tendency of changes in the consid- minimum of –28.8°C was recorded on the 6th 4 91426 Tępcz 1958 170 18°03’ 54°30’ catchment. The analysis shows that most farms were not used in the analysis as precipitation has ered periods. The statistical significance of this trend of February 2012. The 5th percentile of Lębork 5 91425 Rębiska 1960 17 18°20’ 54°27’ 100 in the Reda catchment are of small (1-5 ha) a primarily local influence, and so interpolation was defined by a significance level of 1 – α = 0.95. daily minimum temperature also occurred 101 or medium (5-10 ha) size. Data from the Agen- could result in a misleading characterization in 1987, with the value of –16.3°C. A daily av- Urbanized parts of the catchment are localized habited areas including intensive development cy for Restructuring and Modernisation of Ag- of precipitation in the basin area (Szalińska, 2.3.2. TEMPERATURE erage value in the period was – 5.5°C. in the downstream part of the river. Agricultural of housing (e.g. Moście Błota in the Kosakowo riculture (ARMA 2016) suggests that the aver- Otop 2012). In the authors’ opinion, the spa- Annual mean temperature at the Gdynia station January and February were the coldest areas are localized close to the Reda River and its commune) alongside existing settlements, fur- age size of farms in the Pomeranian Voivodeship tial distribution of the weather stations analyzed in period 1967-2016 varied by 3.4°C. The cold- months at Gdynia and Lębork (Fig. 5). tributaries as they are dependent on irrigation ther raise the flood risk. was 19.02 ha in 2015. in this study provides suitable coverage of pre- est year was 1987 with an annual average tem- Seasonal average temperatures for months (Czarnecka 2005). The land use is dominated The main flow characteristics of the Reda In order to limit the loading of nutrients cipitation data in the catchment, with suitable perature of 6.7°C, while 2015 and 1990 were December-February at Gdynia and Lębork by agriculture (arable land, heterogeneous agri- River at the cross section in Wejherowo are fol- which affect the Baltic Sea, it is necessary for representation of basin landforms. Although the hottest years with annual average tempera- were 0.7°C and –0.2°C, respectively; for March- cultural areas and pastures) and forest, covering lowing: all farmers in Reda catchment to cooperate. Gdynia station is located around 14 km from tures of 10.1°C and 10.0°C, respectively. An- May, 6.8°C and 5.5°C; June-August, 17.0°C 51% and 44%, respectively. Agricultural areas • maximum observed flow (WWQ) – 20.9 3m s-1; This could be challenging considering the large the basin, it was included in the analysis nual average temperature at the Lębork station and 12.5°C; and September-November, 9.6°C dominate in both the upper areas of the catch- • maximum average annual flow (WSQ) – number of small- and medium-size farms, as it best reflects pluvial conditions in the Reda varied by 3.6°C. The coldest years were 1987 and 8.6°C. The biggest amplitude in temperature ment and around the estuary. Approximately 4% 13.8 m3 s-1; however the overall consumption of mineral estuary. and 1996 with an average of 6.1°C, while 2014 variability was recorded during winter months. of the catchment is covered by artificial surfaces, • average of mean annual flow (SSQ) – 4.35 m3 s-1; fertilizers in the Reda catchment is considered Variability of the temperature and precip- was the hottest year with an average tempera- In the period 1967-2016, monthly amplitude while wetlands and water bodies cover an insig- • average of annual minimum flows (SNQ) – to be quite small. Results of water quality mea- itation over the Reda basin have been studied ture of 9.7°C (Fig. 4). in winter reached 7.6°C at Gdynia and 7.8°C nificant area of the catchment (Fig. 3).4 1.67 m3 s-1; surements at the station Mrzezino (north-east using the data of five stations. The analysis The daily maximum temperature at Gdynia at Lębork. In spring, summer, and autumn One of the most significant risks in the Reda • minimum observed flow (NNQ) – 0.67 3m s-1. of Reda) for 2014 are as follows: was conducted with verified daily data for occurred on the 21 July 1988 with temperature months, the amplitude reached value 5.1°C, -1 th catchment is flooding caused by heavy rains, • ammonia nitrogen: 0.026-0.182 mg N-NH4 L ; the 50-years period from 1967 to 2016 inclu- of 35.0°C. The 95 percentile of Gdynia daily 3.5°C and 5.2°C at Gdynia; and 5.1°C, 4.6 °C -1 snowmelt and local water jams In the coastal There are two key point sources for nutrients • nitrate nitrogen: 0.33-1.11 mg N-NO3 L ; sive, using temperature data from the Gdynia maximum temperature, based on the 50-year pe- and 5.1°C at Lębork, respectively (Fig. 5). -1 zone of the Gulf of Puck, flood risk is increased loading in the Reda catchments: municipal sew- • nitrite nitrogen: 0.0110-0.0347 mg N-NO2 L ; and Lębork weather stations and precipitation riod 1967 to 2016 inclusive, was 25.3°C in 2010. 1 2.3.3. PRECIPITATION by storm surges caused by strong winds. An ad- age treatment plants and fish ponds. • phosphates: 0.112-0.265 mg PO4 L . data from the Gdynia, Wejherowo, Rębiska A daily average 95th percentile value based ditional problem is the accumulation or reten- Data for discharge and nutrient concentrations and Tępcz weather stations. on the period 1967-2016 was 23°C. The highest Annual average rainfall at Wejherowo, Tępcz, tion of water in urbanized areas following were obtained from 26 different point sources. 2.3. CLIMATIC The time period typically used to characterize temperature of the period was 37.4°C at Lębork, Rębiska and Gdynia stations in the period 1967- heavy rains, particularly in the cities of Reda Analysis of this data showed that the majority CHARACTERISTICS a climate system is 30 years. Currently, as a result occurring on 10 September 1992. The 95th percen- 2016 varied between 156.7 mm and 1,199.2 mm. and Wejherowo. Coastal areas at risk of storm of municipal wastewater generated in the Reda 2.3.1. METHODOLOGY of rapid changes in the natural environment, sta- tile of Lębork daily maximum temperature based The highest annual average value was recorded surges, as well as lower parts of the Reda River catchment is discharged outside the catchment Climate analysis was based on data from five tistical analyses of various climate elements in- on period 1967-2016 was 28.1°C, also occuring at 804.6 mm at the Wejherowo station. At Tępcz, are protected by the levees. On the other hand, to the sewage treatment plant “Dębogórze” near weather stations: Lębork (synoptic station), Gdyn- creasingly use average values from 30 or 50 years. in 2010. Its daily annual average was 26.0°C. Rębiska and Gdynia stations the highest annual the most urbanized Reda River section from the city of Rumia (located within the Kosakowo ia (climate station), Wejherowo, Rębiska and Tępcz Therefore, taking into account the characteristic July and August were the hottest months, with average values were 726.5, 636.6 and 572.7 mm, Wejherowo to Reda City is not embanked. Sub- municipality). This sewage diversion includes (precipitation station). Only Wejherowo and Tęp- meteorological conditions, expressed by average the exception of 2000, when June was the hottest respectively. urbanization and chaotic development of the in- parts of Reda, Wejherowo and Szemud, which cz are located within the Reda basin. The other and extreme values of meteorological elements month at both Gdynia and Lębork (Fig. 5). The highest annual precipitation occurred in the catchment of the Reda River, we assessed The daily minimum temperature at Gdynia in 1980 at Wejherowo station (1,199.2 mm), 4 https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc-2006 the shorter measuring period of 2004-2014 of –18.7°C was recorded on the 2nd Febru- 2007 at Tępcz station (1,039.2 mm), 1970 Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Environmental modeling in small catchments in the context of climate change: Reda case study Volume 8 | Issue 1 Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Ewa Jakusik, Magdalena Skonieczna, Łukasz Woźniak

at Rębiska station (988.6 mm) and in 2010 Table 2. Comparison of monthly average temperatures in sub-basins 6351 and 6352 between at Gdynia station (758.2 mm). The lowest model WRF/RCA predictions for scenario RCP 8.5 (2016-2045) and measurement annual value was recorded at Rębiska station data from Lębork/Gdynia stations (2004-2014) [°C] in 1989 (156.7 mm), Gdynia station in 1982 (2004-2014) and (2016-2045) difference (330.3 mm), Tępcz station in 1992 (460.4 mm),

and at Wejherowo station in 1982 (494.5 mm). Month Cumulative rainfall maximum for 1, 2 and 5 days Tmean(Lęb) Tmean(Lęb) Tmean(Lęb) Tmean(Lęb) Tmean(Gdy) Tmean(Gdy) Tmean(Gdy) Tmean(Gdy) = RCA(6351) – = RCA(6351) – = RCA(6351) = RCA(6352) – = RCA(6352) – = RCA(6352) = WRF(6351) – = WRF(6351) – = WRF(6351) were recorded as: 125 mm (2016), 134.2 (1980) – = WRF(6352) – = WRF(6352)

and 159.1 (1980) at Wejherowo station, respec- Jan –0.1 –0.1 0.75 0.78 1.03 1.03 0.21 0.21 tively; 118.3 mm (2016), 119.5 mm (2016) Feb 0.51 0.7 0.96 1.16 0.04 0.01 –0.4 –0.43 and 132.7 mm (2016) at Tępcz station; 110.4 mm Mar 0.47 0.9 0.71 1.18 0.29 –0.2 0.05 –0.45 (2016), 121.7 mm (2016) and 130.5 mm Apr 0.27 1.1 –0.27 0.54 0.21 –0.54 0.75 –0.01 May 0.43 1.3 0.17 1.06 0.24 –0.66 0.51 –0.39 (2016) at Rębiska station; and 110.4 mm Jun –0.38 0.5 –0.12 0.75 0.3 –0.57 0.03 –0.83 (2016), 115.2 mm (2010) and 123.0 mm Jul –0.75 0 –0.33 0.45 1.08 0.38 0.66 –0.04 (2016) at Gdynia station (Fig. 6). Aug –0.1 0.6 0.81 1.52 0.26 –0.35 –0.66 –1.27 In the period 1967-2016 the highest monthly Sep –0.49 –0.1 0.81 1.16 1.02 0.52 –0.27 –0.77 rainfall was generally recorded in June and the low- Oct –0.62 –0.3 0.48 0.82 1.7 1.33 0.6 0.23 Nov –2.03 –1.8 –1.28 –1.04 1.39 1.18 0.65 0.44 est in April (with an exception at Gdynia station, Dec –1.48 –1.4 –0.68 –0.6 0.8 0.74 0 –0.06 where minimum values were recorded in Febru- average –0.36 0.12 0.17 0.65 0.7 0.24 0.18 –0.28

ary). In June the monthly average rainfall was Tmean(Gdy) – monthly average temperature [°C] in the period 2004-2014 at Gdynia; obtained from daily measurement data; 90.8 mm at Wejherowo, 83.8 mm at Tępcz, Tmean(Lęb) – monthly average temperature [°C] in the period 2004-2014 at Lębork; obtained from daily measurement data; WRF/RCA – monthly average temperature [°C] in the period 2016-2045 from models WRF and RCA; obtained from daily scenario data Fig. 5. Variability of monthly maximum, minimum and mean temperature (1967-2016) and (2004-2014) at Gdynia and Lębork 77.4 mm at Rębiska and 69.5 mm at Gdynia. In April, monthly average rainfall was 42.4 mm (6351 and 6352) were analyzed. The nu- perature in the basin will increase in by 0.85°C at Wejherowo, 37.0 mm at Tępcz, and 34.6 mm merical designation of the sub-basins is de- in February-June and August, whereas it will at Rębiska. At Gdynia, the lowest monthly aver- fined by the numeration of the nearest grid decrease in by 0.74°C in September-January, age rainfall was in February, 21.3 mm. of the climate model. when compared to Gdynia observations. Variability of long-term (1967-2016) cumulated precipitation Variability of long-term (1967-2016) annual precipitation 102 1/2/5-days The monthly average rainfall was higher be- Climate represents only one aspect of chang- In relation to the data from Lębork station, 103 Station tween 2004-2014 than between 1967-2016, with es we can expect to occur by the 2050s. Land according to the projection, monthly average differences of 10.9 mm at Rębiska, 4.5 mm at Tęp- use, agriculture, population, lifestyle, legisla- temperature will increase by 0.17°C in sub-ba- cz, 1.7 mm at Gdynia and 0.6 mm at Wejherowo. tion, and economic development are also im- sin 6531. Temperature increases of ~0.75°C are portant drivers that change over time and can projected in January-March and August-Oc- 3. MODELED IMPACTS significantly affect generation and transport tober, with decreases of –0.42°C in November OF CLIMATE CHANGE of nutrients to Baltic Sea. Thus, the possible and December. In the model, it is assumed Wejherowo Assessing the impact of future change changes modeled with HYPE (HYdrological that the sub-basin 6532 monthly average tem- is an essential component of modeling the im- Predictions for the Environment; see Section perature will be higher by ~0.65°C in the period pact of measures selected within the MIRACLE 4) that could occur by the 2050s can be altered 2016-2045 (Table 2). Model predictions show project. To allow for a long-term planning by two aspects: changes in the climate forcing that January-October monthly average tem- and management on a national level, a 30-year data and changes in socioeconomic variables. perature will rise by ~0.94°C, whereas tempera- model period centered around 2030 (2016 tures in November and December will decrease Tępcz to 2045) was chosen. 3.1. THERMAL CONDITION by ~ –0.82°C, when compared to empirical data The changes were compared to the base- According to the WRF model, monthly aver- from the Lębork station in period 2004-2014. line simulation for a recent 10 year period age temperatures within sub-basin 6531 are According to the RCA model, it is predicted (2004 to 2014). In the MIRACLE project, predicted to decrease by –0.36°C for the period that in sub-basin 6531 and 6532 average tem- climate change impact assessments were in- 2016-2045 (Table 2), compared to the average peratures will increase by ~0.70°C and 0.24°C, cluded in the modeling for RCP8.5 projec- temperature at Gdynia for period 2004-2014. respectively, in period 2016-2045, when compared

Rębiska tions for two regional climate model datasets: The model shows that the monthly tempera- to Gdynia empirical data. Compared to Lębork sta- WRF-IPSL-CM5A-MR (WRF)5 and RCA4- ture will increase by ~0.42°C in February-May, tion measurements, average temperatures in sub-ba- CanESM2 (RCA)6 (Bartosova, Capell 2017). but decrease by ~ –0.74°C in July-January. sin 6531 are predicted to increase by 0.18°C, Two regional climate model datasets were Within sub-basin 6532, monthly average tem- but decrease in sub-basin 6532. In the RCA 5-days cumulave used to show the highest increases in precip- perature is predicted to increase by 0.12°C (Ta- model, it is assumed that monthly average tem- 2-days cumulave

1-day cumulave itation (WRF, RCA) and temperature (WRF, ble 2) in relation to measured values at Gdynia perature in sub-basin 6532 in September-Febru- RCA) until 2030 and the effects on water between 2004-2014. The monthly average ary and July will increase by ~0.74°C and decrease

Gdynia and nutrient flows in the case study area. Two temperature in July is predicted to remain un- in March-June and August by ~ –0.46°C, com- sub-basins related to the Reda catchment changed. According to the model, the tem- pared to the long-term average at Gdynia.

5 https://euro-cordex.net/ Fig. 6. Long- term variability in annual rainfall and maximum of 1/2/5-days cumulated rainfall (- trend), between 1967 and 2016 6 https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.90273!/Menu/general/extGroup/attachmentColHold/mainCol1/file/RMK_116.pdf Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Environmental modeling in small catchments in the context of climate change: Reda case study Volume 8 | Issue 1 Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Ewa Jakusik, Magdalena Skonieczna, Łukasz Woźniak

Table 3. Comparison of monthly precipitation in sub-basins 6351 and 6352 between model WRF/RCA There are a relatively large number of hydro- is located above the mouth of the River Ced- predictions for scenario RCP 8.5 (2016-2045) and measurement data from Wejherowo/Tępcz stations logical and nitrogen process parameters required ron. As a result, some assumptions had to be in the period 2004-2014 [mm] to be specified in the application of HYPE mod- made to use the results of quality measurements (2004-2014) and (2016-2045) difference el (Lindström et al. 2010). Model parameters above the mouth of the River Cedron. Addi- are sorted into general parameters, land-use tional quality datasets have been obtained for

Month dependent parameters and soil-type dependent sub-basin 2 (for 2011 only) and sub-basin 10 parameters. For runoff simulation, most pa- (2010 to 2014). Pmean(Tep) Pmean(Tep) Pmean(Tep) Pmean(Tep) Pmean(Wej) Pmean(Wej) Pmean(Wej) Pmean(Wej) = RCA(6531) – = RCA(6531) – = RCA(6531) = RCA(6532) – = RCA(6532) = RCA(6532) – = RCA(6532) = WRF(6531) – = WRF(6531) – = WRF(6531) = WRF(6532) – = WRF(6532) = WRF(6532) – = WRF(6532) rameters reflect water holding characteristics, Projected climate change in WRF climate

Jan 11.9 –17.3 24.1 –5 15.2 –8.3 27.5 4 evapotranspiration rates, flow paths and reces- model predicted reduced daily concentration Feb 18.9 –3.4 30.8 8.5 25 0.1 36.9 12 sion rates. Considering nitrogen simulation, of N and P in the Reda catchment on average Mar 21.8 –8.5 35 4.8 20.3 –7.6 33.5 5.6 the model parameters describe processes of ni- by 4.0% and 7.7%, respectively, compared Apr 10.2 7.3 12.9 10.1 14.8 11.8 17.6 14.6 trogen transformations and sinks. to the baseline period (Fig. 9). May –6.8 –24 –1.5 –18.7 8.7 –5.1 14 0.2 The baseline period includes effects of mea- Projected climate change in RCA climate Jun 8.3 –2.2 13.4 2.9 11.3 –2 16.4 3.1 Jul –24.3 –38.4 –6.7 –20.8 –13.9 –22.8 3.6 –5.3 sures resulting from The National Programme model predicted reduced daily concentration Aug –44.2 –53.3 –28.4 –37.5 –15.9 –20.4 –0.1 –4.6 for Construction of Urban Wastewater Treat- of N and P in the Reda catchment on average Sep –41.7 –43.8 –43.9 –45.9 –16.7 –27.8 –18.8 –30 ment Plants (RBMP 2016) and The River ba- by 9.2% and 12.8%, respectively, compared Oct 8.5 –4.1 8.5 –4.1 19.4 8.9 19.3 8.9 sin management plans (2016-2021) (RBMP to the baseline period (Fig. 10). Nov –12.9 –21.7 –6.7 –15.5 –13.4 –21.9 –7.2 –15.7 2016), including measured which are currently Dec 22 –5.9 29.3 1.4 12.9 –8.4 20.2 –1.2 5. RESULTS Fig. 7. Location of discharge gauging station in Reda River with HYPE model performance for baseline average –2.4 –17.9 5.6 –10 5.6 –8.6 13.6 –0.7 implemented or that have been agreed upon in previous plans. The results of the model- Results of the MIRACLE project delivered period 2006-2014 (NSE, PBIAS) Pmean(Wej) – monthly average precipitation [mm] in the period 2004-2014 at Wejherowo; obtained from daily measurement data; Pmean(Tep) – monthly average precipitation [mm] in the period 2004-2014 at Tępcz; obtained from daily measurement data; ing were compared with the baseline period important information for present and future WRF/RCA – monthly average precipitation [mm] in the period 2016-2045, obtained from WRF, RCA models; obtained from daily scenario data of 2006-2014. integrated water management. In comparison with the years 1967-2016, the average monthly Compared with the Lębork station data, it is pre- model developed and maintained by the Swed- 4.1. DISCHARGE MODELLING air temperature during 2004-2014 was high- dicted that temperatures in December in sub-basin ish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute For the daily discharge modeling in HYPE, two er by 0.2 (October) to 1.1°C (July) in Lębork 6531 will remain unchanged, whereas in February, (SMHI). periods were selected from 2004-2014; a cali- and Gdynia. On the other hand, the average

104 August and September temperatures will decrease by To run the HYPE model for runoff and ni- bration dataset from 2004-2005 and a valida- annual precipitation for the period 2004-2014 105 ~ –0.46°C, but increase in the other months trogen simulation, several types of spatial data tion dataset from 2006-2014. Figure 7 shows was higher by 10.9 mm in Rębiska, 4.5 mm by 0.44°C. (including Digital Elevation Model, stream the model performance results from valida- in Tępcz and 1.7 mm in Gdynia, and lower Fig. 8. Modelled discharge dynamics at the gauging station in the Reda River network, land use and soil type), time series tions of discharge in sub-basin 7 (the location by 0.6 mm in Wejherowo. 3.2. PLUVIAL CONDITION data and statistical data were required. These of the gauging station in Wejherowo City) For sub-basin 6531, the results of the RCA WRF model projections in 2016-2045 shows datasets were gathered during the initial phase in the Reda catchment. The elements of the sys- model according to the RCP8.5 scenario pre- that monthly average precipitation will decrease of the project and were improved during work- tem are the Reda channel, waterway, and a weir dict that in the period 2016-2045, the aver- by ~ –0.1 mm and –0.5 mm in sub-basins shops. For the time series data, climate forcing which dams the water for a cement plant. age monthly air temperature will change from 6531 and 6532, respectively, when compared data for daily precipitation and daily mean air Locations of sub-basins and gauging stations –0.1°C in January to 18.4°C in July. to Wejherowo station measured data for 2004- temperature for each sub-basin were required. is shown on Figure 7. On the other hand, using the WRF mod- 2014. A decrease of –0.3 mm is also predicted Statistical data required included initial nutrient Modelled discharge dynamics within el for the same sub-basin and climate sce- in sub-basin 6532 compared to Tępcz station ob- pools in the soil, agricultural practices (i.e., ma- the Reda basin were evaluated at the gauging nario, the monthly average air temperature Fig. 9. Simulation of the daily total-N concentrations (mg/L) at the outlet of the Reda catchment servations. In the WRF model, monthly average nure and chemical fertilizer applications, crop station (sub-basin 7; Fig. 7). Generally, hydro- is predicted to range from –0.1°C in January for 2015-2045, using the WRF (blue) and RCA (red) models precipitation is assumed to increase by approx- husbandry, timing and amount of fertilization, dynamics in the Reda basin are characterised to 18.0°C in July and August. For sub-basin imately 0.2 mm in only sub-basin 6531, com- sowing and harvesting), wet and dry atmospher- by rapid flow variations, higher discharges 6532, the results of the RCA model according pared to Tępcz measurements in 2004-2014. ic depositions of nutrients, and nutrient con- during the winter months, and low flow peri- to the RCP8.5 scenario predict that in 2016- In the RCA model it is predicted that monthly centrations and outflow volumes of point sourc- ods during summer. Total outflow of freshwa- 2045 the average monthly air temperature average precipitation will increase by ~ 5.6 mm es from rural household, industrial and waste ter to Baltic Sea averaged over the simulated will vary from –0.1°C in January to 19.1°C and 13.6 mm in sub-basin 6531 compared to We- water treatment plants. 30-year periods is presented in Figure 8. in July, while the WRF model predicts a change jherowo station and Tępcz station measured data For model calibration and validation, dis- of –0.1°C in January to 18.9°C in July. for 2004-2014, respectively. In sub-basin 6532, charge and in-stream nutrient concentration 4.2. NUTRIENT MODELING The RCA model forecasts higher monthly aver- it is predicted that monthly precipitation will (inorganic nitrogen (IN), organic nitrogen In the case of the Reda catchment, difficulties age temperatures for sub-basins 6531 and 6532 Fig. 10. Simulation of the daily total-P (mg/L) at the outlet of the Reda catchment for 2015-2045, decrease by –8.6 mm and –0.7 mm compared (ON), total nitrogen (TN), soluble reactive in nutrient modeling were caused by an incon- from June to October, December and Feb- using WRF (blue) and RCA (red) models to Wejherowo and Tępcz stations, respectively. phosphorus (SP), particulate phosphorus sistency between the location for flow measure- ruary. Moreover, in the period 2016-2045, (PP) and total phosphorus (TP)) observed ments and those for water quality measure- an increase of annual precipitation in sub-basin Results of modeling indicate a moderate ent modeling were caused by an inconsistency 4. DISCHARGE from one or several locations of the stream ments. The longest time-series of observations 6531 is predicted for RCP8.5 by both models. increase of outflow from Reda catchment, av- between the location of water flow stations AND NUTRIENTS MODELING were used. Observations of internal hydrolog- for water quality is from the monitoring point The RCA model forecasts higher monthly pre- eraging 14% and 18%, respectively for WRF and those for water quality measurements. For discharge and nutrients modeling the HYPE ical variables (groundwater level, evapotrans- called Reda Mrzezino, located below the mouth cipitation totals for sub-basins 6531 and 6532 and RCA regional climate models compared Projected climate change both in the WRF model (Hydrological Predictions for the Envi- piration and soil moisture) were also used for of the River Cedron, but this station has no in February, March, June, July, September, Oc- to the baseline period. However, the reliability and RCA regional climate models predict a re- ronment) was used. HYPE is an open source model parameter calibration and evaluation flow monitoring. In contrast, the water gauge tober and December, compared to the WRF of the model should be considered. In the case duced concentration of N and P in the Reda integrated rainfall-runoff and nutrient transfer of model performance. for calibrating the model in terms of discharge model for the RCP8.5 scenario. of the Reda catchment, difficulties in nutri- catchment. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Volume 8 | Issue 1

6. CONCLUSIONS so that their participation is not only limited Report on the impacts of global warming This study confirms that mathematical models to specifying and receiving project outcomes, of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and relat- are useful instruments in specifying detailed pro- but also includes their opinions8. The optimum ed global greenhouse gas emission pathways, cesses associated with water cycles in the envi- in this respect would be to achieve such a bal- in the context of strengthening the global ronment and determining the interconnections ance in activities that will provide support for response to the threat of climate change, and mutual relationships between them, as well the planning process on the part of scientific sustainable development, and efforts to erad- as quantifying characteristic values for the assess- units in the form of partial works, whilst also icate poverty, available online at https://www. ment of quantity and quality of water resources, involving representatives of the administration ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/ are a useful instrument. The models provide in the formulation of final documents. SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf (data ac- detailed information on the current and future cess 17.01.2020) structure and condition of water resources, in- REFERENCES • Kondracki J., 2011, Geografia regionalna Pols- cluding the impact of potential climate changes. • 2000/60/EC, Directive of the European Par- ki, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa, Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that cri- liament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 468 pp. teria for these models, for example use of ap- establishing a framework for Community ac- • Lindström G., Pers C., Rosberg J., Stromqvist propriate data in the correct formats, as well tion in the field of water policy, Official Journal J., Arheimer B., 2010, Development and test- as suitable model calibration is a challenging L 327, 22/12/2000 P. 0001 – 0073, EUR-Lex, ing of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions task, especially in the case of complex models. 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7 New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty (NeWater) (https://www.ecologic.eu/1397) 8 http://klimat.imgw.pl Reviewers Cooperating with Editorial Board of Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management magazine in 2019

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