OASIS ISSN: 1657-7558 [email protected] Universidad Externado de Colombia

Randall, Stephen J. Change or Continuity in US-Latin American Policy: the Obama Record OASIS, núm. 18, 2013, pp. 7-22 Universidad Externado de Colombia Bogotá, Colombia

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How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from , the , Spain and Portugal Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative Change or Continuity in US-Latin American Policy: the Obama Record

Stephen J. Randall Latin American Research Centre University of Calgary [email protected]

There has been little praise and considerable policies as “dangerous complacencies.” Other criticism of the Latin American policies of the commentators have suggested there is more first presidential term and the early stages of the continuity than change from the George Bush second administration of Barack Obama. It is policies which he so vigorously criticized in understandable that his administration has had 2008 (2011, pp. 14-28). This paper reviews major distractions domestically and internatio- the regional policies, successes and failures, of nally with the fallout from the financial crisis, the administration over the past 5 years with political wrangling over health care reform, particular focus on Honduras, Colombia and crises in Egypt and Syria, sable rattling from Mexico, three of the regional countries which North Korea, the need to continue to build a have posed the most significant challenges. stable relationship with China, and winding On Cuban policy during the campaign, down wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since the Obama was explicit in calling for change at mid-term Congressional elections in 2010, the least in terms of lifting travel restrictions and President has also faced congressional deadlock controls on remittances for Cuban Americans over virtually every administration initiative, with family on the island. Speaking before the from the confirmation of nominees to execu- Cuban American Foundation in Miami in tive positions to immigration reform. Given May 2008 he pledged to immediately allow those challenges and what had to be priorities, unlimited family travel and remittances. He it was inevitable that Latin American policies also indicated that he was prepared, with pro- would suffer to some degree. Condolences and per preparation, to meet with Raul Castro. He understanding aside, the gap between Presi- made no reference to the embargo. On broader dent Obama’s lofty rhetoric and actual policy Latin American policy he was critical of the accomplishments is significant and growing. U.S.-Colombian trade agreement, which both Latin American Perspectives (2011), for instan- he and Hillary Clinton criticized in the Demo- ce, recently characterized his administration’s cratic Party primary campaign (Strassel, 2008).

Recibido: junio 19 de 2013 / Aceptado: octubre 8 de 2013

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Once he had secured the nomination and partnership. There is no senior partner and moved into the presidential campaign against junior partner in our relations; there is simply Republican John McCain, Obama made few engagement based on mutual respect and com- references to Latin American issues; they sim- mon interests and shared values. So I’m here to ply did not resonate with the electorate in the launch a new chapter of engagement that will fall of 2008. The bbc’s Latin American analyst be sustained throughout my administration.” James Painter predicted that there would be a President Obama identified a number of spe- change in tone but little substantive change in cific areas in which he sought improvement: actual policy with an Obama administration1. stimulating economic growth; supporting an The first administration began with a expansion of Inter-American Development mixture of the same optimistic and positive Bank lending capacity; combating inequality rhetorical flourishes which had characterized and creating prosperity from the bottom up; the 2008 presidential election campaign. There addressing violence and insecurity; reducing had been a great deal of popular support for U.S. demand for illicit drugs; stopping the the Obama candidacy in Latin America, partly illegal flow of arms by giving priority to rati- because he was African-American and partly fication of the un Protocol on Illicit Traffic in because of his democratic, liberating and inspi- Firearms and the Inter-American Convention rational message of change. Brazilian President Against the Illicit Manufacturing and Traffic- Inácio Lula da Silva stressed the significance king in Firearms; establishing an Energy and of Obama’s race (Erikson, 2010, p. 7). Only a Climate Partnership for the ; and “a few months after taking office, in April 2009, new beginning with Cuba”2. speaking before the Fifth Summit of the Ame- The record since 2009 has been disappoin- ricas in Trinidad, Obama spoke of a new era in ting when measured against the promises. On- U.S.-Latin American relations and pledged to ce in office there was a minor initiative to ease respect sovereignty and diversity in the . travel restrictions to Cuba, but by the time of His commitment was unequivocal: “I know the 6th Summit of the Americas in Cartagena that promises of partnership have gone unfulfi- in 2012, President Obama indicated that there lled in the past, and that trust has to be earned would be no change in U.S.-Cuban policy in over time. While the United States has done spite of the almost unanimous support for a much to promote peace and prosperity in the reintegration of Cuba into the Inter-American hemisphere, we have at times been disengaged, system by countries in the hemisphere, Canada and at times we sought to dictate our terms. being the other opposition. The isolated na- But I pledge to you that we seek an equal ture of the U.S. position on Cuba is reflected

1 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7710855.stm. 2 Fifth Summit of the Americas. Recuperado de http://www.trinidadandtobagonews.com/5summit/obama170409. html.

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in the un vote as well. The year that Obama the fact that Secretary of State John Kerry’s took office the General Assembly voted 187- successor as chair of the Senate Foreign Re- 2 condemning the embargo policy, with only lations Committee is Robert Menendez of Israel joining the United States in the vote. New Jersey, who has consistently opposed any Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton normalization of relations. made the curious statement in 2010 that it Where Kerry has been able to shift policy was her personal opinion that the Castros did directions is on relations with , with not want a normalization of relations because which the United States has had a troubled it would expose their policies for the failures relationship for a decade, largely because of that they have been3. Certainly there was no the intense anti-American policies pursued hint from her of a shift in U.S.-Cuba policy. by the late president Hugo Chavez. In early Nor was there any sign of significant June 2013 Kerry met with Venezuelan Foreign change on Cuban policy in the first several Minister Elias Jose Jaua, the first cabinet level months of the second term. Former Senator meeting between the two countries in several John Kerry, Clinton’s successor as Secretary of years, and Kerry’s first Latin American trip State, has signaled no change. Cuba was still since taking office. There was some expression on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. In of hope that there would be a normalization February 2013 the New York based Council on of relations and an exchange of ambassadors the Americas and the Washington based Cuba in the near future4. Study Group both called on the administration With respect to other promises the Presi- to lift the embargo. The administration did not dent made in Trinidad, as of 2013 the United respond. In May 2013, as a possible sign of a States had not ratified the un Protocol on U.S. overture to reduce tensions with Cuba, Illicit Traffic in Arms nor the Inter-American a US court allowed René Gonzalez to return Convention, in spite of the heightened atten- to Cuba. Gonzalez was one of the Cuban Five tion to gun control following the devastating who had been in a U.S. prison until 2011 ser- shooting of school children in Newtown, ving time for engaging in espionage (Hayden, Connecticut in late 2012. The energy initia- 2013). Any significant shift in policy toward tive had produced some results. By 2012, the Cuba is unlikely in the balance of Obama’s U.S. had invested approximately $150 million presidency. There is little appetite for such in support for a variety of projects in the re- change in Congress or in the Cuban-American gion, from electrification projects to training community with the exception of the libera- programs, the Caribbean Renewable Energy lization of travel and remittance restrictions. Strategy, and a number of national energy Any Congressional shift is also unlikely given research centers. On narcotics, security and

3 Reported by Reuters (April 9, 2010). 4 Mallett, R. Venezuela-U.S. Relations may improve. Venezuelanalysis.com.

américa latina

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trade policies, however, critics argue that the in . A second is celac, the Communi- administration has simply maintained and ty of Latin American and Caribbean States, extended the initiatives of the Clinton and established in Caracas in 2011. Its objective Bush administrations, from Plan Colombia is to advance regional integration, and the to the Iniciativa Mérida in Mexico and the organization includes 33 countries. Such ini- conclusion of Bush administration negotia- tiatives are indicative of the growing sense of ted free trade agreements with Colombia and economic, political and diplomatic power in in spite of opposition from his own Latin America, most striking in the case of Bra- party over perceived human rights issues. Nor, zil, whose inclusion among the bric (Brazil, although it was not solely a Latin American Russia, India, China) countries is an indication issue, did Obama follow through on his very of its capacity to play a more important role vocal commitment to close the Guantánamo on the world stage. The efforts of Central and detention center. South American countries in the past decade The relative neglect of Latin America, to strengthen their economic relationships in with a few important exceptions, is indicative particular with China, and even Iran of a much broader and more fundamental shift have reflected this broader tendency to distan- in the relationship between the United States ce themselves from the United States and to and the region. The United States simply does build more complex economies and political not have the power or relevance it once had. linkages. As two analysts suggested, “a more The decline of U.S. influence in the region self-confident and autonomous majority in is reflected not only in the success which the Latin America has sometimes sought a policy now late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez shift with regard to highly sensitive topics, such had in extending his Bolivarian vision and oil as drugs, immigration and Cuba.” (Whitehead fueled influence into the Caribbean, Central & Nolte, 2012). Those initiatives were not America and the Andean region, but perhaps limited to Chavez’s Venezuela, but included more importantly in the emergence of Latin such U.S. allies as Colombia and Mexico. American-led regional organizations in which On one level, this effort on the part of neither the United States nor Canada is re- Latin American countries to distance themsel- presented (Congressional Research Service, ves from the United States is ironic since the 2012). Such organizations go beyond such economic importance of the United States to regional trading blocs as mercosur. The first the region remains strong even if it has decli- of the more recent organizations is unasur, ned since 2000. In 2000, some 61% of Latin the Union of South American Nations, which American exports went to the United States. was established in 2008 at a summit in Brazil. By 2010, that had declined to 41%. The chan- It is essentially an integration of the Mercosur ge in U.S. exports to the region has shown a countries with those of the Andean Pact and is similar decline in that period from 55% to modeled on the European Union. It includes 30.5%. Nonetheless, the United States is still 12 countries and a Latin American parliament the source for 20% of foreign direct inves-

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tment in the region and an estimated 90% of Court, the Congress and the military, and that remittances (Whitehead & Nolte, 2012, p. 3). confusion was reflected in the response of the A brief examination of Obama adminis- oas and some member states. Nonetheless, tration policies toward three countries serves the Obama administration, along with the to illustrate a number of the basic features of oas, the Bolivarian countries and unasur, the administration’s approach to the region, condemned the removal as a violation of the Honduras because of the 2009 constitutional Democratic Charter. In late June President crisis, Mexico because of the extent to which Obama stated: “We do not want to go back it poses challenges which are in part domestic to a dark past,” and added, “we always want and in part foreign policies, and Colombia, to stand with democracy” (Malkin, 2009). which because of Plan Colombia has had a The administration suspended $30 million special importance to the United States since in aid to Honduras, although this was only the Clinton administration. a small percentage of the total level of U.S. assistance to the country. The administration Honduras did not, however, break diplomatic relations and recall its Ambassador. Critics contended The first major crisis and challenge in Latin that administration officials were aware of the America which the Obama administration pending coup and condoned it. They also ar- faced came in Honduras. This was an impor- gued that the administration fell back into the tant litmus test for the relatively new adminis- anachronistic bipolar Cold War mentality of tration. What position it would assume when seeing the “left” in Latin America as a security confronted by a military-backed coup would threat to U.S. interests, a threat embodied in have important impact on the public percep- the anti-Americanism of Hugo Chavez (Latin tion of the extent to which the new adminis- American Perspectives, 2011, 14-28; Haugaard, tration was in fact departing from past failed 2009). On July 5 the oas, acting on the basis of policies. In June 2009 the Honduran Congress Article 21 of the Inter-American Democratic and military removed from office leftist Presi- Charter, suspended Honduras. dent Manuel Zelaya, contending that he was Months of political and diplomatic wran- violating the constitution in his efforts to lift gling ensued, along with mass public demons- restrictions on presidential terms. Honduran trations in Honduras in support of Zelaya, congressman Roberto Micheletti was named during which time ousted President Zelaya interim president. The Obama administra- was given diplomatic asylum in the Brazilian tion had been working for some weeks prior embassy. During that interlude the adminis- to the co