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June 2021 No 171, Volume 15

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June 2021 No 171, Volume 15 June 2021 - Volume 15 No 171 Summary Equity Markets The TEDPIX index declined by 5% and the junior Farabourse (IFB) index declined by 0.4% in IRR terms over the course of May 2021. Based on the unofficial exchange rate, the month-on-month loss in dollar terms was 7% on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TEDPIX) and 2% on the Farabourse market. This was partly due to the 2% depreciation of the IRR versus the USD over the month. Debt Markets For the start of the Iranian calendar year 1400 (March 2021) to the end of May, the total issuance on the fixed income market remained steady with no change from the previous month at 0.4 billion US$ based on the unofficial exchange rate. Yield to maturity (YTM) remained stable at 22% at the end of May. Economic Review This issue reviews the latest housing market statistics published by the Central Bank of Iran. In addition, we have included a separate report covering the latest macroeconomic data published by relevant organizations and senior macroeconomic strategists in a fact-sheet summary, as well as an economic calendar released by local and international statistics centers. Tabatabai House, Kashan, Iran Photo by: Shervan Karim 1 Iran Investment Monthly Table of Contents 3 Market Overview 5 Performance & Updates 6 Historic Trends & Sector Insight 7 Industry at a Glance 8 Market Snapshot 9 TSE & Junior Market Performance 10 Top Ranked Companies 11 Iran’s Fixed Income Market 13 Economic Review 13 Latest Updates 16 Macroeconomic Data 17 News & Views 17 Recent Brokerage Reports 17 Turquoise News 18 Turquoise Group 2 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Jun 2021 Volume 15 No 171 Market Overview After a severe decline of 9% in April, the TSE overall index turned positive in May and rose by 5.6% in Euro terms. This happened mainly due to a further appreciation of the Iranian Rial (IRR) in the official market against the Euro. The IRR reached its 9-month high against the EUR during May. Average daily trade volumes stood at 99 million USD; this is a roughly quarter of the amount at the last peak of the market in August 2020. The appreciation of the IRR stems from higher hard currency inflows to the country due to both higher commodity prices and also more oil sales (mainly to China). Euro CBI Market Rate Shervin Shahriari Chief Inves tment Officer 248,118 161,228 Source: CBI We anticipate that the current phase of IRR appreciation may have run its course, as our models show that the IRR is now trading close to its fair value. However, the gap between the free-market rate and the official rate widened to 20 percent in May, from a recent low of 1 percent in November 2020 . This is mainly because of the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the ongoing nuclear negotiations. In terms of the best performing sectors, Mining Ore and Basic Metals led the way in May. Their related sub-indices surged by 15% and 11% respectively in Euro terms. This rise was due to a rebound in global commodity prices, boosted by demand from China. Steel prices in Iran rose by more than 10% over the course of the month, which in turn fueled an increase in steelmakers’ shares on the TSE. For example, Mobarakeh Steel Company, the largest listed company by market cap on the TSE, rose 9% in May. Chadormalu, the largest producer of iron ore, was also among the top performers. Its price rose by 8% in IRR terms over the same period, reflecting the positive trend in global iron ore prices so far this year. 3 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Jun 2021 Volume 15 No 171 Performance of TSE Sectors in Euro May 2021 vs. April 2021 Source: TSE ,CBI However, we have turned relatively cautious on this space; we are mindful of its cyclicality and volatility, as well as being cautious overall about the near-term prospects for the global commodity markets. Looking at the recent tightening policies implemented by China, there are indications that the recent euphoria in demand for China-related commodities (e.g. basic metals) will not be sustainable. Iranian T-Bills YTM in IRR & YOY Inflation Rate Source: IFB ,CBI We believe that this is a prudent strategy considering the political uncertainties regarding the upcoming presidential election in Iran and ongoing nuclear talks with the world powers 4 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Jun 2021 Volume 15 No 171 Performance & Updates 11 - Year Average (2008-2021)1 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 132 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market P/E 8.1x TSE Dividend Yield (%) 3 10% TSE Market Cap / GDP 64% TSE & Farabourse Total Turnover (billion US$),Average Annual 31 TSE TSE Overall Index Average Annual Growth (US$) 24% TSE 1 Annual data from 2008 to May 2021 2 Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. Summary - May 2021 Market Capitalization (billion US$) 256 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Free Float 21% TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Number of Listed Companies1 689 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market TSE Index Performance (US$)2,4 -5.2% (MTD) 18.2% (YTD) TSE Total Turnover (million US$)2 2,485 m$ TSE & Farabourse Junior Market Dividend Yield (%) 3 2.3% TSE P/E 12.4 1 176 companies are listed in Over-The-Counter (OTC) or off-exchange market named as “Base Market” in Farabourse junior market which trading of these companies are done directly between two parties. 2 Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. 3 Calculated based on the latest market data 4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value1 - May 2021 Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$) Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market)Trade Volume (million US$) Since the beginning of 2021, the market has contracted as the YTD performance of the TSE and IFB recorded losses of 18% and 10% in IRR terms respectively. The loss in hard currency terms was 13% on the TSE and 5% on the IFB on a year-to-date basis. In May 2021, the TSE equity trade volume value declined to 2’170 million US$ from the 8’433 million US$ average over the last twelve months. The total number of shares traded on the TSE decreased by 50% compared to a twelve-month average of 184 billion shares. US$ Million Source: Tehran Stock Exchange Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate 1 Trading volume month on month in US$ term - TSE includes mainly equity while Farabourse has more fixed income instruments and smaller equities. 5 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Jun 2021 Volume 15 No 171 Historic Trends & Sector Insight Long-Term Overall Index (Normalized in USD) Long-Term Iranian Market Cap ( Normalized in USD) Historic Average: 202 Historic Average: 186 May 2021 : 407 May 2021 :405 TSE Best Performing Sectors & Overall Index (Normalized in USD) 100 98 96 92 Basic Metals Chemical & By Products Metal Ores Mining Overall USD TSE Large Sectors (% Market Capitalization) 22% 14% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 20 Other Metals* Monetary Diversified Chemicals Refined Petroleum Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of May 2021 *Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum Motor Vehicles And Auto Parts Pharmaceuticals Computer & Related Activities Metal Ores Mining Telecommunications 6 Iran Investment Monthly Refined Petroleum Market Overview Jun 2021 Volume 15 No 171 Industry at a Glance - May 2021 YTD 1-Year Return 5-Year Return Top Performing Companies Market Cap Sector Trailing (%) Trailing (%) Trailing (%) in May 2021 (MOM %) (Million USD) in USD in USD in USD Iranian Zinc Ind 31 - - - Metals* Iranian Lead & Zinc Production & Development 31 - - - Iranian Aluminium Company 630 -27% -39% - Opal Mineral Pars Mining Processing Company 1,576 - - - Mining Sabanour Mining and Industrial Development Company 575 18% 52% 232% Mining and Metals Development Investment Company 2,774 -34% -46% -8% Lavan Oil Refinery Company 348 -23% -39% 3% Petroleum Iranol Company 370 28% 12% -35% Zangan Power Equipment Company 18 1% 166% 2212% Polyacryl Iran 157 6% 5% - Chemical Ghaed Basir Petrochemical Products Company (GBPC) 166 -29% -22% - Ghadeer Petrochemical Co.* 328 - - - Post Bank Iran 314 36% 7% 47% Banks Parsian Bank 1,684 -18% 2% -67% Bank Pasargad 4,098 40% 29% 83% TSE Large Sectors 5-Year Performance (Normalized in USD) Metals Mining Petroleum Chemical Banks 341, May 2021 275, May 2021 191, May 2021 150, May 2021 132, May 2021 Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of ending May 2021 *Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum *New IPO 7 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview Jun 2021 Volume 15 No 171 Market Snapshot -May 2021 Iran & Regional Markets Iran: A 27-Year Snapshot, Asset Class Annualized Return in US$ (%) P/E Multiple Comparison MSCI Morocco 26.6 Kuwait 39.4 Qatar 18.2 11% MSCI Arabian Markets 21.6 MSCI GCC Countries 22.0 MSCI Egypt 8.2 6% 5% Saudi Arabia 34.6 UAE 21.7 Iran 12.0 % Turquoise Iran Fund 9.4 Sub Fund B/C, as of ending May 2021 Note: Annual data from 1995 to May 2021 Source: CBI, TSE, IFB All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate Iran & International Markets 3 4 Tehran Stock Exchange MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Frontier Markets Average P/E Average P/E Average P/E 12.0 19.3 17.5 1 1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $ -14.5% 51.0% 37.6% Annualized 10 Year in $ 2 Annualized 10 Year in $ Annualized 10 Year in $ 13.3% 4.1% 5.31% 20.0 Chemicals 20.4 Information Technology 35.2 Financials 13.7 Basic Metals 18.3 Financials 13.3 Communication Services 9.2 Investment Companies 16.9 Consumer Discretionary 10.9 Real Estate 7.6 Diversified Industrials 11.4 Communication Services 9.6 Materials 7.3 Metal Ores Mining 8.7 Materials 9.2 Consumer Staples Sector Breakdown (%) 42.2 Others Sector Breakdown (%) 24.4 Others Sector Breakdown (%) 21.8 Others 1.TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) performance calculated in US$ for the Period of May 2020 to May 2021 2.Overall Tehran Stock Exchange Index 10 year annualized performance calculated in US$ 3.MSCI Emerging Markets Index (US$) - May 2021 4.MSCI Frontier Markets Index (US$) - May 2021 Source: Tehran Stock Exchange - Central Bank of Iran - MSCI Inc., Kamcoonline.
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