Carlsberg A/S
FINANCIAL RESULTS 6 MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
The forw ard-looking statements contained herein, including forecasts on sales and earnings performance, inherently involve risks and uncertainties and could be materially affected by factors such as global economic matters, including interest rate and currency developments, raw material developments, production 2 and distribution related problems, breach or unexpected termination of contracts, price reductions resulting from mar ket driven price reductions, market acceptance of new products, launches of rival products and other, unforeseen, factors.
Carlsberg w ill only update and adjust the specifically stated expectations in as far as this is required by the law . CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Strong development throughout the business
• Increase in beer volume in all regions lead by fast growing markets in BBH and Asia
• Double-digit growth in net sales with all regions contributing 3
• International brands Carlsberg and Tuborg up 6% and 24% respectively
• Earnings continue positive trend reflecting higher sales as well as efficiency improvements and cost control
• Guidance raised for full year EBIT to DKK 5bn
– Organic earnings increase for brewing activities +18-20% CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S Beer Volume Dynamics Strong volume development in growth regions
Hl million (pro rata) Pc t . +16% +1% +17% 40 35 33% 29% 4 37 28
34 21 15% 31 14
28 7 3% 25 0 2006 Organic Acquisitions 2007 WE BBH EE Asia
Total bars show total growth in volume; dark shaded bars show organic growth in volumes CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
All regions
Net Sales Operating Profit +35% +33% 23 2 300 +0% +13% +0% -1% +12% -2% 5 21 2 100
19 1 900 DKK bn DKK DKK m DKK 17 1 700
15 1 500
13 1 300 2006 Organic Acq. FX 2007 2006 Organic Acq FX 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Volumes up in positive Western European markets
• Generally positive markets during first six months throughout Western Europe 6 • Volumes up 3% following share gains in key markets
• Net sales / hl increased by 1%, partly off-setting general price increases in raw materials
• Lower operating expenses as focus continues to be on efficiency and cost control CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Western European earnings continue positive momentum
• Strong performance in Nordic supported by various new product launches 7 • Swiss back-office accounting activities transferred to shared service centre in Poland
• Share gain in the UK and Carlsberg Export now #2 premium beer in off-trade
• Operating margin now at 9.7% (12 mths moving average) vs. 8.9% at year-end 2006 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Western Europe
Net Sales Operating Profit +29% -1% +28% 14 1 200 +3% +3% ~0% 8 13 1 060 12 920 DKK m DKK DKK bn DKK 11 780 10
9 640
8 500 2006 Organic FX 2007 2006 Organic FX 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Exceptional performance across BBH markets
Russia
• Exceptional market growth +23% 9 • Strengthening of Baltika as market leader with share of 37.6%
• Increasing input costs partly compensated for through operational leverage
• On-going capacity expansion projects to support growth
• Strong growth in Tuborg +106%; Carlsberg +70% CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Other BBH markets
Ukraine • Long term turnaround plan on track • Continued growth in premium/licensed segment with Baltika and Tuborg • Re-launch of Slavutich brand –performing well in the mainstream 10 segment Baltics • Successful premium product strategy driven by innovation • Share growth in all markets New markets • Uzbekistan brewery fully operational in July CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
BBH outlook 2007
• Following strong market performance in H1, we expect the Russian market to grow by 11%-13% in 2007 11 • Price increases in Russia just below local food & beverage inflation
• 2007 EBIT margin around 23%
• Capex of €500- €600m to meet growing capacity demands CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
BBH
Net Sales Operating Profit +36% +48% 6 000 1200 +51% +0% +39% +1% -3% 12 5 000 1000 -4% 4 000 800 DKK m DKK m DKK
3 000 600
2 000 400
1 000 200 2006 Organic Acq FX 2007 2006 Organic Acq FX 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Eastern Europe improves operations
• Strong market development; especially in Poland and Bulgaria
• Poland back on track after implementation of new sales 13 model
• Very positive development in South East Europe with share gains in all markets
• Growth in earnings in Poland and South East Europe CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Eastern Europe / Rest of world
Net Sales Operating Profit +21% +156m 2 100 200 +21% ~0% +86m +12m 14 1 900 160
1 700 120 DKK m DKK DKK m DKK +58m 1 500 80
1 300 40
1 100 0 2006 Organic FX 2007 2006 Gain on Organic FX 2007 Pias t CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Organic growth in Asia continues
• Volumes up 29% driven by strong organic development as well as acquisitions in China 15 • Lower earnings following restructuring of sales in Malaysia
• Increase in raw material prices
• Greenfield in Phu Bai, Vietnam expected to be operational by year end CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Asia
Net Sales Operating Profit +5% -5% +12% 1 300 +12% 225 16 1 140 205
980 185 DKK m DKK m DKK -17% +2% -23% 820 165 -8%
660 145
500 125 2006 Organic Acq. FX 2007 2006 Organic Acq. FX 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
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The financials results and outlook 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Drivers of financial results
EBIT
2 300 18 2 100
1 900 DKK m
1 700
1 500
1 300 2006 Brewing Other 2007
1,722 +546 -12 2,256 CarlsbergBrewingBrewering Activities A/S Activities
Operating margins (RTM)
2007:Q2 2006:Q4 U 12 mth 12 mth bp 19 Total, Breweries 10.5 9.7 80
Western Europe 9.7 8.9 110
BBH 23.4 22.7 70
Eastern Europe excl. BBH 7.5 3.8 370
Asia 11.5 14.4 -290 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Income statement (1/2)
DKK million 2007:H1 2006:H1 U% Net sales 21,502 19,251 +12 Cost of sales -10,744 -9,497 -13 Gross profit 10,758 9,754 +10 20 Sales & distribution -7,074 -6,743 -5 Administration -1,598 -1,468 -9 Other operating income, net 132 159 -17 Profit after tax, associates 38 20 +90 Operating profit 2,256 1,722 +31
Operating profit, Brewing 2,213 1,667 +33 Operating profit, Other 43 55 -22 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Income statement (2/2)
DKK million 2007:H1 2006:H1 U%
Operating Profit 2,256 1,722 +31 Special items -142 393 -136 21 Financials, net -496 -428 -16 Interest -528 -506 -4 Other financial gains / losses 32 78 -59 Tax -405 -500 19 Profit 1,214 1,187 +2
Minorities 132 135 -2 Carlsberg’s share of profit 1,082 1,052 +3 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Cash flow from operations
DKK million 2007:H1 2006:H1 U
Operating profit 2,256 1,722 +534
Depreciation 1,386 1,370 +16 22
Other non-cash items -144 -127 -17
U Working capital -672 -310 -362
Paid restructuring -180 -268 +88
Paid interest, net -459 -691 +232
Paid tax -544 -605 +61
Cash flow from operations 1,643 1,091 +552 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Cash flow from investments
DKK million 2007:H1 2006:H1 U
Capital expenditure, net -2,095 -1,520 -575 23 Acq/sale of companies, minority shareholdings etc. 145 3,113 -2,968
Real estate / other activities -154 7 -161
Cash flow from investments -2,104 1,600 -3,704
Free cash flow -461 2,691 -3,152 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Financial ratios
DKK million 2007:H1 2006:H1 U 24
Net interest bearing debt 20,529 20,628 -98
Financial leverage 1.1 1.2 -0.1
Net interest cover 4.5 4.0 +0.5 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Return on invested capital
DKK million Invested ROIC 07 vs. 06 capital %* Ubp
Total, Breweries 32,833 14.0 +270 25 Western Europe 16,594 15.3 +370 BBH 8,043 29.4 +590 Eastern Europe 4,299 7.1 +120 Asia 2,869 10.2 -220 Not allocated 1,028 … …
Total Group 44,491 10.3 +160
* Moving Annual Total CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
ROIC development
Index EBIT, Inv . c apital ROIC (%) ROIC Q2/2005=100 (MAT)
14 140
13 EBIT (rhs) 130
12 120 26 Inv. c ap. (rhs) 11 110
10 100
9 90
8 80
7 70
6 60
5 50 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Financial outlook 2007
New guidance Operating profit for brewing activities up 18-20% organically
2007 2007 2007 2006 Guidance Guidance Guidance 27 Actuals (Feb) (May) (August)
Net sales DKK 41.1bn ~ +5% ~ +7% > +10% Operating profit, Brewing activities DKK 3,997m ~ DKK 4.3bn ~ DKK 4.5bn ~ DKK 4.75bn
Operating profit, Other activities DKK 49m ~ DKK 0.2bn ~ DKK 0.2bn ~ DKK 0.25bn
Carlsberg share of profit DKK 1,884m Slightly higher > DKK 2 bn ~ DKK 2.2 bn CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
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Additional information CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Financial Calendar 2007
29
2007 Q3 Financial Statement 7 November 2007
2007 Full Year Statement 19 February 2008 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Seasonality in the brewing activities
Net sales Operating profit 2004-2007 2004-2007 DKKm DKKm
15 000 2 000 30
12 500 1 600 10 000 1 200 7 500 800 5 000
2 500 400
0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2004 2005 2006 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Western Europe profit margin development (rolling 12 months)
DKK m
10% 2800 Margin improvement initiatives ... • Top line growth: 9% 2600 - Innovations Margin - Increased share of premium 31 products 8% 2400 - Building local power brands - Best practice sharing with sales and marketing 7% 2200 - New beverage categories Operating prof it (rhs) • Cost base reduction:
6% 2000 - On-going Excellence programmes roll-out - Standardisation
5% 1800 - Shared Service Center - Brewery structure optimisation Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Market development in BBH region
H107 Market growth BBH Volume growth BBH Market share Market share change 32 Russia +22.7% +30.8% 37.6% +1.9%-pts
Ukraine* +21.5% +33.6% 18.6% +0.7%-pts
Baltics* +5.3% +6.8% 44.4% +0.7%-pts
Kazakhstan* +19.7% +54.8% 42.3% +4.1%-pts CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Product portfolio in Russia
Position
Licensed #2 33
Premium #1
Baltika 0, 5, 6, 7, 8
Mainstream #1 Baltika 2, 3, 4, 9
Economy #1
Discount #1 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Baltika Breweries in Russia
St. Petersburg 12.3 MHL
Tula 34 6.3 MHL Yaroslavl 6.3 MHL Voronezh 0.7 MHL Samara 6.5 MHL Krasnoyarsk 2.0 MHL
Rostov-on- Don 4.5 MHL Khabarovsk Chelyabinsk 1.6 MHL 4.5 MHL Novosibirsk 4.5 MHL for 2008 season
Production capacity: 40+ m hl / year CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Russian beer market development
Growth % Market share % quarterly observations
40 38,0 2007:H1 2006:H1 2006:FY BBH 37.6 35.6 36.4 35 37,5 InBev 18.3 18.9 18.9 35 30 37,0 Heineken 13.1 13.6 13.3 25 36,5 Efes 9.3 9.8 9.7
20 36,0 SAB 6.3 5.7 5.6 Others 15.4 16.4 16.1 15 35,5 100.0 100.0 100.0 10 35,0
5 34,5
0 34,0 Q2'05 Q3 Q4 Q1'06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'07 Q2 -5 33,5 * Estimate Market grow th, % BBH vol grow th, % Note: BBH domestic beer volumes BBH M/S, % (rhs) Sources: BBH, State Statistics Committee, Breweries, Business Analytica CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Product portfolio in China
Share of total market:
Premium 3%
36
Mainstream 97% or Discount CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Carlsberg in Asia
CHINA - Six Brewery Groups HONG KONG - Carlsberg Carlsberg shareholding: Hong Kong Ltd. CBG 99%, Kunming & Dali 100%, Lhasa 33%, Carlsberg shareholding: 100% 3 breweries in Gansu 30%, Qinghai 33%, Market position: No.2 Xinjiang Wusu 60%, Ni ngxia 70% Market leader in all invested provinces in West China 37
NEPAL - Gorkha Brewery Pv t. Ltd. VIETNAM - South East Asia Carlsberg shareholding: 49.8% Brew ery & Hue Brew ery Ltd. Market position: No.1 Carlsberg shareholding: SEAB 60%, HBL 50% Market position: No.3 MALAYSIA - Carlsberg Brewery MoU Signed with Hanoi Brewery M alaysia Berhad Carlsberg shareholding: 51% Market position: No.2 LAOS - Lao Brewery Company Ltd. Carlsberg shareholding: 50% SRI LANKA - Lion Brewery Ceylon Ltd. Market position: No.1 Carlsberg shareholding: 17.35% Market position: No.1 CAMBODIA - Cambrew Ltd. Carlsberg shareholding: 50% SINGAPORE - Carlsberg Singapore Pte. Ltd. Market position: No.1 Carlsberg shareholding: 100% Market position: No.2 CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Carlsberg in China
Xi n ji ang W u su B r ewer y Gr ou p (11 breweries ) • CB share: 60% • Market leader
Ningxia Xixia Jianiang Brewery • CB share: 70% • Market leader 38
Qinghai Huanghe Brewery • CB share: 33% XINJIANG • Market leader GANSU Lanzhou Huanghe Brewery Group (3 breweries in Gansu) • CB share: 30% • Market leader QINGHIA NINGXIA Lhasa Brewery TI BE T • CB share: 33% • Market leader
Dali Brewery Kunming HuashiBrewery • CB share: 100% • Market leader
Carlsberg Brewery Guangdong YUNNAN • CB share: 100% • Supply Carlsberg beer to all China and Hong Kong HONG KONG CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Real estate fact sheet
Tuborg 2007 2008 2009 DK K m YTG Investments -340 -250 -110 Sales proceeds +550 +1,000 +350 Profit from sale / 39 +250 +400 +100 rental income
Sqm to be constructed Tuborg Valby*
Housing ~ 60,000 Commercial ~ 9,000 Public building ~ 10,000 Total ~ 79,000 ~ 550,000 Hereof Carlsberg need ~ 70,000
* As indicated by winning proposal of the Carlsberg Architecture Competition CarlsbergBrewing Activities A/S
Guidance overview
Operating profit Net profit Adjusted net profit* +25%
40
+20-30% +15-20%
Reported Guidance Reported Guidance 2006 2007E 2006 2007 2006 2007
* Net profit adjusted for extra- ordinary items after tax