COVENTRY – RAIL UPGRADE

MAJOR SCHEME BUSINESS CASE

Appendix 3.5 Future Development Assumptions

Coventry to Nuneaton Rail Upgrade – Major Scheme Business Case March 2010 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONS

Table 1 Development Sites ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm ent Residenti units al Employm Coventry City Paragon Park ? ? 13900 B1 0 ? complete 2012- 450 Business 2015 Park 32500 GFA Swanswell 1400 ? 400464 26715 209446 ? 47137 completions from 2011 to 2025 Arena Park 2 0 300 0 9755 0 0 46 spaces complete within 3 years Blue Ribbon 0 300- 0 5508 9357 72 462 spaces Park 450 Currently under construction Completion within 5 years New Deals for 1500 ? ? ? ? ? ? Communities Demolitions underway Complete by 2025 Ansty Business ? ? ? ? 140,000 ? ? Park Walsgrave Around ? ? ? ? ? ? Hospital 800 Housing complete by

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 1 of 12 ent Residenti units al Employm ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm 2015 Binley District 42 ? ? 12000 ? 0 360 spaces Centre GFA complete by 2013

Stoke Village 1700 ? ? ? ? ? ? 96 currently complete fully complete by 2025 New Century 340 18000 95000 ? B1, B2 & 112 ? Park site site B8 33141 beds Complete by area area GIA 2015 for schoo l EAST OF 0 0 0 0 B1/ B2 / ? Orchard Retail B8 Park 274000 Within 5 years, site area allocation in Core Strategy Ryton on 3000 111480 Dunsmore Whitley 0 2000 0 0 102200 0 3012 SPACES Business Park site area Phase 1 complete all complete within 5 years Incinerator 0 ? 0 0 0 0 ? Complete by 2015 -2020 Parkside 44 0 ? 0 0 0 ? Complete within 3 years Severn Trent 0 3500 0 0 7376 0 600

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 2 of 12 ent Residenti units al Employm ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm (St. Martins) Complete by 2010 University of ? ? 140000 ? ? ? ? Cannon Park ? ? 8682 ? ? 1120 Complete by 72 2016-2020 Banner Brook 450-650 ? ? 2600 0 0 161 spaces Park 2017-2025 Dunlop Site 132 0 ? 0 3000 0 ? Complete by 2015 Retail Quarter Upto ? ? 92000s ? ? ? 6000 qm includin g parts of swansw ell , friargate and Belgrad e plaza Friargate 750 15000 ? 5574 185805 120 ? Coventry University Belgrade Plaza 12 ? ? 5343 5000 Budget 1389 Complete by apartme 109 2013 nts plus 4 star upto 184 500 student beds Axa 37 ? ? 200 2800 ? 50-80 Complete by 2017

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 3 of 12 ent Residenti units al Employm ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm Browns Lane 172 2400 6ha ? 89000 site ? 1375 spaces Complete by area 2013 MCD Butts 550 ? 3000- 3760-5760 100 528 College 424 5000 Redevelopment

(rooms) (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm ent Residenti units al Employm ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel Land South of 500 Road and North West of Coventry Road, Bulkington Land North of Church Lane, off Weddington Road 450 Land East of Plough Hill Lane, Galley Common 250 Land East of St Nicholas Park Drive 1,000 Land East of Eastboro Way 500 Land South of School Lane, Exhall 300 Judkins Quarry 1,500 Camp Hill Phase 3 615 Nuneaton town centre 100 Bedworth town centre 100 Camp Hill Phase 2 155 Walsingham Drive 385

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 4 of 12 ent Residenti units al Employm ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm Bermuda park housing 66 Holland and Barrett offices 3071 Bermuda (B1a) Bermuda Park 3000 Lidl supermarket 1063sq m Stephenson Road, Exhall 1,000 Exhall Road, Keresley 136

Midland Quarry, off Tuttle 153 Hill St Mary’s Road, Nuneaton 60 Queens Road, Nuneaton 118 Nuneaton Bus Station** ASDA** Tesco/Bedworth** Sainsbury’s** Faultlands Farm East, 250,000 North of Gipsy Lane * 1,000 Sq m Goodyers End, West and East of Bowling Green Lane * 1,000 Arbury Estate, west of 1,000 300,000 Bermuda * Sq m Bedworth Woodlands * 1,000 Weston Wood, south of 1,000 Marston Lane * Neal’s Green/ 500 200,000 Woodshire’s Green * Sq m Former Foundry Site, 75 Land at Station Approach 150 Leamington Spa Land at South Sydeham 200 and East of

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 5 of 12 ent Residenti units al Employm ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm Woodside Farm Whitnash 250 Europa Way Warwick 1250 Windfall and small sites 2575 Lower Heathcote Farm 2500 Thickthorn 800 Warwickshire College, 300 Leamington Spa Fingham/Gibbet Hill 3500 Gateway Rugby – Sustainable Urban 360,000 extension 1300 1800 B2, B8 2800 600,000 B1, B2, BT Mast site* 4180 B8 250,000 B1, B2, Alwyn Road* 1360 B8 Former Cattle Market site* 210 Calverston Road* 197 Leicester Rd/ Old Leicester Rd* 46 Former Willan works* 328 Former WCC depot Dunchurch* 43 Bilton Grange School* 135 Parkfield Road* 111 Hilmorton Road* 40 Coton East Extension* 1529 Bilton Fields* 364 Cawston South Extension 498 Former Warwickshire 168

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 6 of 12 ent Residenti units al Employm ent (jobs) Residenti al (sqm) Retail/leis (sqm) ure Business (sqm) Hotel (rooms) Car park (sqm) Developm College site

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 7 of 12 Table 2 Model Year Assumptions

Planning Core Input Authority Uncertainty Comment Strategy Year Factors affecting

underlying demand CCC Addressed applying 2016, 2031 Default demographic, the recommended economic and More than range around the behavioural likely TEMPRO central case assumptions. forecast. CCC More than Change of timing and 2031 Paragon Park likely mix of land use CCC Phase 1 complete. 2031 More than Swanswell Planning application likely submitted. CCC Planning application 2016, 2031 submitted. Considered Arena Park 2 Near certain necessary for Policy S3. CCC Road construction was 2016, 2031 Blue Ribbon Park Near certain due to start in June 2009. CCC Policy promoted in 2031 New Deals for More than Annual Monitoring Communities likely Report 2008. CCC More than 2031 Orchard Retail Park Land identified in LDF. likely RBC Planning application 2016, 2031 More than Ryton submitted. Availability Zone A likely advertised in 2031 Zone B CCC No information DROP Airport available . CCC More than 2016, 2031 Whitley Business Park Phase 1 complete. likely CCC No information DROP Incinerator Hypothetical available. CCC More than In receipt of planning 2016, 2031 Parkside likely application. Severn Trent (St. CCC Office starts in early 2016, 2031 Near certain Martins) 2010 University of Warwick CCC Reasonably Formal masterplan DROP

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 8 of 12 foreseeable submitted. CCC More than Planning application 2031 Cannon Park likely submitted. CCC Outline planning 2016, 2031 Banner Brook Park Near certain application submitted. CCC More than Planning application 2016, 2031 Dunlop Site likely submitted with issues. Retail Quarter CCC Hypothetical No information DROP CCC More than Planning application 2016, 2031 Friargate likely submitted. Coventry University CCC Hypothetical No information DROP CCC Expected to complete 2016, 2031 Belgrade Plaza Near certain in 2010. Axa (No. 1 Bishops CCC More than In receipt of planning 2031 Place) likely application CCC Planning application 2016, 2031 More than Browns Lane submitted. Decision likely pending. MCD Butts College CCC Phase 4 under 2016,2031 Near certain Redevelopment construction. RBC Phase 1 due to 2016, 2031 Ansty Business Park Near certain complete. Binley District Centre CCC Near certain 2016, 2031 CCC More than Planning application 2016, 2031 Stoke Village likely submitted. CCC Planning application 2016, 2031 More than submitted. Public New Century Park likely consultation ends 08/09/09. Warwickshire Sites Land South of NBBC Likely to be part of DROP Bedworth Road and preferred Spatial Reasonably North West of Strategy but Council foreseeable Coventry Road, has yet to finalise this Bulkingon NBBC Likely to be part of DROP Land North of Reasonably preferred Spatial Church Lane, off foreseeable Strategy but Council Weddington Road has yet to finalise this Land East of Plough NBBC Likely to be part of DROP Reasonably Hill Lane, Galley preferred Spatial foreseeable Common Strategy but Council

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 9 of 12 has yet to finalise this NBBC Likely to be part of DROP Reasonably preferred Spatial Land East of St foreseeable Strategy but Council Nicholas Park Drive has yet to finalise this NBBC Likely to be part of DROP Reasonably preferred Spatial Land East of foreseeable Strategy but Council Eastboro Way has yet to finalise this NBBC Likely to be part of DROP Reasonably preferred Spatial Land South of foreseeable Strategy but Council School Lane, Exhall has yet to finalise this NBBC Reasonably Assumed during Plan 2031 Judkins Quarry foreseeable period NBBC More than New Planning 2031 Camp Hill Phase 3 likely Application submitted Nuneaton town NBBC Reasonably Assumed during Plan DROP centre foreseeable period Bedworth town NBBC Reasonably Assumed during Plan DROP centre foreseeable period Camp Hill Phase 2 NBBC Near certain Under Construction 2016, 2031 Walsingham Drive NBBC Certain Under Construction 2016, 2031 Bermuda park housing NBBC Certain Under Construction 2016, 2031 Holland and Barrett NBBC More than 2016, 2031 Approved offices Bermuda (B1a) Likely Bermuda Park NBBC Allocation confirmed in 2016, 2031 More than vicinity of proposed Likely station Lidl supermarket NBBC More than Committed 2016, 2031 likely Development Stephenson Road, NBBC Reasonably Option being DROP Exhall foreseeable considered by Council Exhall Road, Keresley NBBC Near certain Construction underway 2016, 2031 Midland Quarry, off NBBC 2016, 2031 Near certain Application granted Tuttle Hill St Mary’s Road, NBBC Construction about to 2016, 2031 Near certain Nuneaton commence Queens Road, NBBC 2016, 2031 Near certain Under Construction Nuneaton Nuneaton Bus NBBC DROP Hypothetical Not yet committed Station**

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 10 of 12 ASDA** NBBC Reasonably DROP Not yet committed foreseeable Tesco/Bedworth** NBBC Reasonably DROP Not yet committed foreseeable Sainsbury’s** NBBC Reasonably DROP Not yet committed foreseeable NBBC Hypothetical Likely to be part of Optimistic preferred Spatial Scenario Faultlands Farm Strategy but Council East, has yet to finalise this NBBC Hypothetical Likely to be part of Optimistic preferred Spatial Scenario Strategy but Council Goodyers End has yet to finalise this Arbury Estate, west of NBBC Hypothetical Likely to be part of Optimistic Bermuda preferred Spatial Scenario Strategy but Council has yet to finalise this Bedworth Woodlands NBBC Hypothetical Likely to be part of 2016, 2031 preferred Spatial Strategy but Council has yet to finalise this Weston Wood, south NBBC Hypothetical Likely to be part of Optimistic of Marston Lane preferred Spatial Scenario Strategy but Council has yet to finalise this Neal’s Green/ NBBC Hypothetical Likely to be part of Optimistic Woodshire’s Green preferred Spatial Scenario Strategy but Council has yet to finalise this RBC Reasonably 2031 Gateway Rugby LDF Core Strategy Site foreseeable RBC Reasonably 2031 LDF Core Strategy Site BT Mast site* foreseeable RBC Option for DROP Hypothetical Alwyn Road* Development Former Cattle RBC Under Construction 2016, 2031 Near certain Market site* @ RBC More than Planning Application 2016, 2031 Calverston Road* likely registered @ Leicester Rd/ Old RBC Planning Permission 2016, 2031 Near certain Leicester Rd* granted @ Former Willan RBC Nearly complete 2016, 2031 Near certain works* @

Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC, Value for Money Case Page 11 of 12 Former WCC depot RBC Option for 2016, 2031 Hypothetical Dunchurch* Development @ Bilton Grange RBC Option for DROP Hypothetical School* Development RBC Nearly complete 2016, 2031 Near certain Parkfield Road* @ RBC Development 2016, 2031 Near certain Hilmorton Road* completed @ RBC Planning Application DROP Coton East Hypothetical refused – inquiry Extension* awaited RBC Option for DROP Hypothetical Bilton Fields* Development Cawston South RBC Option for DROP Hypothetical Extension Development Former RBC 2016, 2031 More than Planning application Warwickshire @ likely imminent College site,Rugby Former Foundry Site, WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2016, 2031 Leamington Spa foreseeable Station Approach WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2016, 2031 Leamington Spa foreseeable Land at South WDC LDF Core Strategy Site 2016, 2031 Reasonably Sydeham and East of foreseeable Whitnash Woodside Farm WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2016, 2031 Whitnash foreseeable Europa Way Warwick WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2016, 2031 foreseeable Lower Heathcote Farm WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2031 foreseeable Windfall and small WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2031 sites foreseeable Thickthorn WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2031 foreseeable Warwickshire College, WDC Reasonably LDF Core Strategy Site 2031 Leamington Spa foreseeable Fingham/Gibbet Hill WDC Hypothetical Long Term Possibility DROP

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