Dr Giuseppe Zappa www.met.reading.ac.uk/~giuseppe/ Personal information

Address: 9 St Paul’s court, Reading, UK

Phone: 00441183786016

E-mail: [email protected]

Place and date of birth: Perugia (Italy), 26/01/1984

Nationality: Italian

Current Position

Postdoctoral Research Assistant, Department of , University of Reading, Reading, UK

Profile He is a postdoctoral researcher with a background in and research interests in atmospheric and dynamics. He has worked on problems regarding the nature and energetics of atmospheric stationary waves and he has become a recognised expert on the response of extratropical stormtracks to , for which he has been a Contributing Author for the IPCC AR5. In particular, he has studied several classes of extratropical cyclones, ranging from polar lows in the Arctic oceans (a high latitude high-impact weather event) to Mediterranean cyclones, which play a crucial role in providing rainfall to many Southern European water-stressed countries. Having identified a large uncertainty in the response to climate change in these societally relevant processes, he is now working (as part of the ACRCC project) on understanding the mechanisms responsible for the large spread in the model projections and to increase the confidence in the related atmospheric impacts and hydrological cycle changes at the regional scale.

Research Interests Mid-latitudes atmospheric dynamics

The response of atmospheric circulation to climate change

Mediterranean climate change: mechanisms and impacts

Climate model analysis and inter-comparison

Atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction processes Relevant Employment and Education

2014 – present Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Postdoctoral Research Associate (grade 7) ACRCC project (PI Prof Ted Shepherd)

He is studying the global drivers controlling the atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle responses to climate change at the regional scale. The work is based on the analysis of the CMIP5 climate models (publications 11, 12, 15, 17) and on targeted experiments using atmospheric general circulation models aimed at testing specific hypotheses (14, 16).

2011 – 2014 NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Postdoctoral Research Associate (grade 6) TEMPEST project (PI Prof Len Shaffrey)

He has applied a cyclone tracking algorithm to study the representation of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean stormtracks in climate models (publications 6 e 4), their response to climate change (2, 3, 5, 10), and the implications for the projected precipitation change in the Mediterranean area (9). Furthermore, he has contributed to an international project on the role of stratospheric climate change on the tropospheric climate (8) and he has developed an algorithm for the detection of mesoscale cyclones which has been applied to the study of medicanes and polar lows (7, 13).

2007 – 2011 CMCC (Bologna, Italy) and Ca' Foscari University (Venice, Italy) PhD in Science and Management of Climate Change Thesis on: "Tropical Extratropical Interactions and Systematic Errors of Climate Models”. Tutors: Dr. Antonio Navarra and Prof. Valerio Lucarini.

He has learnt how to use climate models to run targeted experiments, and he has become an expert in the field of spectral decomposition of atmospheric energetics, which he has applied to study the nature of atmospheric stationary waves in aqua-planet models (publication 1) and in the real world.

2005 – 2007 University of Bologna, Italy Master Degree in Physics-: 110/110 cum laude

2002 – 2005 University of Bologna, Italy Bachelor Degree in Physics: 110/110 cum laude

Publications

Bibliometric information (November 2017) Author of 17 publications in peer-reviewed journals

Citations: 489 (Google Scholar), 339 (Scopus), 330 (Web of Science) h-index: 9 (Google Scholar), 8 (Scopus), 8 (Web of Science)

IPCC AR5 WG1 He is contributing author of the IPCC AR5 Chapter 12: “Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility”, 2013.

Publications on peer-reviewed journals 17) Maraun D, et al (incl G Zappa) (2017) Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations, Nature Climate Change, 7:764–773 [citations: 0 (Scopus), 0 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 19.3] 16) Ceppi P, Zappa G and Shepherd TG (2017), "Fast and slow components of the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to CO₂ forcing”, Journal of Climate (in press) [citations: 0 (Scopus), 0 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.8]

15) Zappa G and Shepherd TG (2017) Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment, Journal of Climate, 30: 6561-6577 [citations: 1 (Scopus), 3 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.8]

14) Pithan F, Shepherd TG, Zappa G, Sandu I (2016) biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag, GRL, 43: 7231-7240 [citations: 7 (Scopus), 8 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.2]

13) Tous M, Zappa G, Romero R, Shaffrey LC, Vidale PL (2016) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model, Climate Dynamics, 47: 1913–1924 [citations: 1 (Scopus), 3 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.7]

12) Zappa G, Hoskins BJ, Shepherd TG (2015) The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, ERL, 10:10412 [citations: 3 (Scopus), 5 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.1]

11) Zappa G, Hoskins BJ, Shepherd TG (2015) Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation, Journal of Climate, 28: 6381-6397 [citations: 6 (Scopus), 9 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.8]

10) Economou T, Stephenson DB, Pinto JB, Shaffrey LC, Zappa G (2015) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations, QJRMS, doi 10.1002/qj.2591 [citations: 4 (Scopus), 5 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 3.7]

9) Zappa G, Hawcroft M, Shaffrey LC, Black E, Brayshaw D (2015) Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 climate models, Climate Dynamics, 45: 1727-1738 [citations: 14 (Scopus), 23 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.7]

8) Manzini E, et al (incl G Zappa) (2014) Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling, JGR-Atmospheres, 119: 7979-7998 [citations: 39 (Scopus), 53 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 3.3]

7) Zappa G, Shaffrey LC, Hodges K (2014) Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF reanalysis and the ERA Interim reanalysis?, Mon Wea Rev, 142: 2596-2608 [cit. 13] [citations: 22 (Scopus), 30 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 3.2]

6) Zappa G, Masato G, Shaffrey LC, Woollings T, Hodges K (2014) Linking Northern Hemisphere Blocking and stormtrack biases in the CMIP5 climate models, GRL, 41: 135-139 [citations: 16 (Scopus), 19 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.2]

5) Zappa G, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Sansom PG, Stephenson DB (2013) A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Climate, 26: 5846-5862 [citations: 88 (Scopus), 135 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.8]

4) Zappa G, Shaffrey L, Hodges K (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones, Journal of Climate, 26: 5379-5396 [citations: 65 (Scopus), 95 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.8] 3) Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Ferro C, Zappa G, Shaffrey LC (2013) Simple Uncertainty Frameworks for Selecting Weighting Schemes and Interpreting Multimodel Ensemble Climate Change Experiments, Journal of Climate, 26: 4017-4037 [citations: 25 (Scopus), 32 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.8]

2) Harvey B, Shaffrey LC, Woollings T, Zappa G, Hodges K (2012) How large are projected 21st century stormtrack changes?, GRL, 39: L18707 [citations: 43 (Scopus), 65 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 4.2]

1) Zappa G, Lucarini V, Navarra A (2011) Baroclinic stationary waves in aquaplanet models, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68: 1023-1040 [citations: 4 (Scopus), 4 (Google Scholar). Impact factor: 3.6]

Submitted manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals S1) Li, C et al (incl G Zappa), Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5C and 2.0C warming and implications for regional impacts, Earth Syst Dynam (submitted)

S2) Zappa G, Pithan F, Shepherd TG Evidence for a robust atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 models future projections, GRL (under revision)

S3) Hawcroft M, Zappa G, Hodges K, Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical storms, Nature Communications, (under revision)

Scientific presentations

Invited talks University of Graz, 2017: Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment, invited by Prof. Dougals Maraun

NCAS Early Career Forum, 2015: The North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm track under climate change

Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 2014: How well do ERAI reanalysis and a 25km climate model represent polar lows?, invited by Prof. Thomas Spengler

AGU Fall Meeting, 2013: North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models: biases and future projections

EMS Annual Meeting, 2013: How well do Reanalyses represent polar lows?

University of Hamburg, 2011: The energetics of stationary waves, invited by Prof. Valerio Lucarini

Selected presentations at national and international conferences and workshops 6th European Windstorm workshop, 2017: Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for regional climate impact assessment”, talk

EGU general assembly 2017: “Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for regional climate impact assessment”, talk

2nd National Climate Dynamics Workshop, 2016: “Storylines of Euro-Atlantic climate change", talk

EGU general assembly 2016: “The dependence of Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change”, talk

1st National Climate Dynamics Workshop, 2015: When will the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to climate change emerge in the observations?, talk SPARC Stormtrack Workshop, 2015: When will the North Atlantic jet response to climate change emerge in observations?, talk

IUGG general assembly, 2015: The potential to improve climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation, talk

MedClivar, 2014: Extratropical cyclones and the Mediterranean precipitation decline in the CMIP5 climate models future projections, talk

Latsis Symposium, 2014: The role of extratropical cyclones on the future Mediterranean precipitation projections, poster

AGU Fall Meeting, 2013: How well do Reanalysis represent polar lows?, talk

WGNE Workshop on Systematic Errors of Climate Models, 2013: Linking blocking and stormtrack biases in the CMIP5 climate models, poster

3rd International Conference on Earth System Modelling, 2013: A multi-model perspective on the future changes of North Atlantic and European cyclones, poster

3rd European Windstorms Workshop, 2013: How well can reanalyses and a 25km climate model represent polar lows?, talk

2nd European Windstorms Workshop, 2012: A multi model perspective on the future response of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones, talk

WCRP Open Science Conference, 2011: An assessment of the Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones simulated by CMIP5 models, poster

Royal Meteorological Society Conference, 2011: Systematic errors of North Atlantic cyclones behaviour in CMIP5 models, talk

EGU General Assembly, 2010: Interactions between almost stable baroclinic waves and the tropical convection in aquaplanet simulations, talk

Grant Proposals

He has been involved in the following grant proposals:

He is work package leader in the Horizon2020 proposal “Circulation and Climate Change (C3)" under the call "Addressing knowledge gaps in climate science, in support of IPCC reports", PI J-S von Storch 2018, In preparation

Programma Giovani Ricercatori Rita Levi-Montalcini (Personal fellowship), “Dynamical drivers and regional feedbacks of Mediterranean climate change”, PI G. Zappa 2017, Pending

UROP, University of Reading summer placement, “The role of winter precipitation on European summer climate change”, PI G. Zappa, 2017, Not funded

Programma Giovani Ricercatori Rita Levi-Montalcini (Personal fellowship), “Toward a physical understanding of Mediterranean climate change”, PI G. Zappa 2016, Not funded

ACRP 9th Call, Eastern Alpine Slope Instabilities under Climate Change (EASICLIM), PI Prof Douglas Maraun (University of Graz), 2016, Funded (€300k). He is included as an external expert in atmospheric dynamics and extratropical cyclones with the role of advising the project consortium. NERC standard grant, Drivers Of Change In mid-Latitude weather Events (DOCILE), PI Prof Myles Allen, 2016, Funded (£581k). He is included as a named researcher expert on atmospheric circulation and climate change

NERC highlight topic: Understanding risks from climate change to water supply planning, PI Prof Nigel Arnell, 2015, Not funded

NERC standard grant, Why don't climate models predict large increases in the numbers of intense extratropical cyclones?, PI Dr Len Shaffrey, 2013, Not funded

Achievements and Media Coverage

He has received the Italian national scientific habilitation to associate professor in geophysics (2017)

He has been promoted to Postdoctoral research associate grade 7 (lecturer-equivalent level) at University of Reading (Feb 2017)

Ranked 5th on the selection of 4 permanent research positions at CNR (Italy) among 170 candidates (2016)

The ERL paper "The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change” has been dedicated a perspective article (http:// iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/111001), and it has been covered by the Le Scienze magazine - the Italian edition of Scientific American - in Jan 2016 and by the online magazine environmentalresearchweb (http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/ 63812)

WMO Travel grant to attend the SPARC “Stormtrack workshop", 24-28 August 2015

WMO Travel grant to attend the WCRP "Open Science Conference", 24-28 October 2011

His PhD thesis was selected by the Ca’ Foscari University press office and reported in some Italian newspapers, 2011

3 years of ministerial PhD funding (2008-2010)

Academic and Professional Activities

Co-convener EGU Session "Understanding past and future changes in the hydrological cycle", 2016, 2017, 2018

Organiser of an international workshop on “The role of atmospheric circulation in regional climate change” University of Reading, 2016, http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~giuseppe/home/workshop.php

Co-supervision of PhD candidate Hélène Bresson, thesis: "Understanding the spatial distribution of polar lows (Arctic hurricanes) and their importance in the climate system”, (2015-present), University of Reading.

Co-supervision of MSc, BSc and MMet students at University of Reading: • E. Pina: Exploring the correlation between climatic factors affecting the Iberian Peninsula 2017 (erasmus student from U. of Barcelona, Spain) • J Wimhurst: Understanding the role of the North Atlantic jet in projections of UK wind power resources by 2100, 2017 • R Reilly: Can Medicanes be seen in re-analyses and how can they be detected?, 2015 • T Mitchell: Polar lows in the Southern Hemisphere, 2015 • K Turrell: Is there a link between the NAO and wind storm damage to forests?, 2014 Guest Lecturer in the “Global Circulation of the Atmosphere” (MWM20) course at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, (2015, 2016, 2018). Main lecturer: Dr. David Bradshaw

Guest Lecturer in the short advanced course on “Instabilities and fluid flows”, University of Reading, July 2012. Main lecturer: Prof. Valerio Lucarini

Demonstrator in “ of Atmosphere and Ocean” (MT24A) course at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, (2018). Main lecturer: Dr. Miguel Texeira

Invited to the Walker Institute engagement workshop, 2013: The changing risks from floods and droughts– what can the latest science tell us?

Serving as reviewer for: Nature, Nature climate change, Science Advances, Letters, Climate Dynamics, Complexity, International Journal of Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Journal of Climate, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere, Monthly Weather Review, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Language Skills

Italian: Mother tongue English: Fluent

Technical Skills Objective cyclone identification and tracking (experience with software TRACK)

Running climate model simulations and modifying climate models code (experience with ECHAM5 and CCSM1.2)

Programming languages, UNIX shells and software:

Proficient: MATLAB, CDO, NCO, Bash Familiar with: Fortran 77/90, Python, Mathematica