Models in a Behavioral Theory of the Firm
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GRADUATE SCHOOL OF INDUSTRIAL ADMINISTRATION Reprint No. 3 I Models in a Behavioral Theory of the Firm by R. M. Cyert, E. A. Feigenbaum, and J. G. March 1959 CARN E G I E INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Pittsburgh 13, Pennsylvania Keprinted Behavioral f:nck Vol. 4, No. April, 1!I5!I I'rinltd in 1 How do business organizations make decisions? What process do they follow in deciding how much to produce? And at what price? A behavioral theory of the firm is here explored.Using a specific type of duopoly, a model is written explicity as a computer program to deal with the complex theory implicit in the process by which businesses make decisions. This model highlights our need for more empirical observations of organizational de- cision-making. MODELS IN A BEHAVIORAL THEORY OF THE FIRM hi/ It. M . Cijert, K. A. Feigenbaum, and .1. G. March Carnegie Institute of Technology attempts to develop a behavioral side of this point are not available. In our Rkck.nttheory of the firm have focused par- judgment, a major portion of the effort in ticularly on the internal characteristics of a the next decade of research on pricing should business firm as a decision-making organiza- he directed to answering this question (or tion. They have used the rough framework to making it irrelevant). But we do not pro- of both the theory of competitive pricing pose to discuss the point in detail here. and the modern efforts to extend that Second, a way must he found to deal with theory to situations of imperfect competition the complex theory implicit, in the decision- such as the case of oligopoly and duopoly making process approach. A major problem where onlya few, or possibly only two, firms perceived by those sympathetic to a be- supply a given market. They have, however, havioral theory has been the lack of a gone further in introducing as an important methodology suitable for handling the kinds part of the theory the process by which of complexities that seemed to be needed business organizations make decisions. Since (Koopmans, 1957). It is to this problem and business (inns are organizations, it has to the development of a specific model to seemed reasonable a priori to assume that a which we address ourselves in this paper. theory of business behavior ought not to We show that a relativelycomplex model treat them as individual decision-makers. of the firm as a decision-makingorganization (Alt, 1949; Bushaw & ('lower, 1957; can be developed and used to yield econom- Chamberlin, 194(1; Cooper, 1951; Cyerf & ically relevant and testable predictions of March, 1955; Cyert &. March, 195(i; business behavior. The methodology in- Cordon, 1948; Papandreou, 1952; Wein- volved is computer simulation. The model is traub, 1942). one of a specific type of duopoly. As a rough Two major obstacles to the acceptance of test of reasonableness, we compare the pre- such a theory of pricing are obvious. First, dictions of the model with actual data. Our it must be shown that the theory is at least, hope is that the model will illustrate the as good as other existing theories in its promise of simulation as a technique of ability to predict firm behavior (Friedman, model building in economic theory and the 195U). Convincing demonstrations on either behavioral sciences in general and at the same time demonstrate a general method * This paper is based on research supported by grunts made by the (Jraduate School of Industrial for examining many of the concepts previ- Administration, Carnegie Instituteof Technology, ously discussed in more abstract terms. from the School's research funds and from funds provided by the Ford Foundation for Ihe study of THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS organizational behavior. The authors owe a con- Recent theories of organizational behavior siderable debt to a large group of colleagues and students for their comments on the general ap- have emphasized several important charac- proach and specific models presented here. teristics of the decision-making process that from Sri 2, C.S.A. SI Theory 82 FEKiEMiAUM AM) M.\lfCH Models in a Behavioral oe the Firm 83 are dealt with awkwardly in the theory of fact that firms assume something about the assume that a firm performs such computa- methods for influencing demand (e.g., an the firm. First, organizational decisions de- reactions of theirrivals is, of course, incorpo- tions more or less simultaneously and that additional advertisingeffort). In either ease, pend on information, estimates, and expec- rated in any theory of oligopoly. Our ap- all are substantially completed before any we expect organizations to revise demand tations that ordinarily differ appreciably proach is to build into the model some further action is taken. Since the subsequent estimates under some conditions and differ- from reality. These organizational percep- propositions about the ways in which organi- steps are all contingent, the order in which ent organizations to revise them in different tions are influenced by some characteristics zations gain, analyze, and communicate in- they are performed may have considerable ways. Evaluation (5) occurs again with the of the organization and its procedures. The formation on competitors. The concept of effect on the decisions reached. This is par- revised estimates. procedures provide; concrete estimates --if organizational learning, a process by which ticularly true with respect to the order of (8) Re-examine objectives. Where plans not necessarily accurate ones (Cyert & expectations of competitors' behavior are steps (0), (7), and (8). Thus, one of the are unfavorable, we expect a tendency to March, 1955). Second, organizations con- modified on the basis of experience, is u structural characteristics of a specific model revise objectives downward. The rate and sider only a limited number of decision major element in this formulation. is the order of the steps. extent of change we can attempt to predict. alternatives. The set of alternatives con- (2) Forecast demand. We have attempted (5) Evaluate plan. On the basis of the As before, evaluation (5) is made with the sidered depends on some feature's of organi- to build a model that can encompass de- estimates of (1), (2), and (M) alternatives revised objectives. zational structure and on the locus of search scriptions of the process by which the de- are examined to see whether there is at least (9) Select alternative. The organization responsibility in the organization. This mand curve (the relationship between the one alternative that satisfies the objectives requires a mechanism (a) for generating dependence seems to be particularly con- price of the product and the quantity which defined by (4). If there is, we transfer im- alternatives to consider and (b) for choosing spicuous in such planning processes as can be sold at that price) is estimated in the mediately to (9) and a decision. If there is among those generated. The method by budgeting and price-output determination firm. In this manner, we are able to intro- not, however, we go on to step (6). This which alternatives are generated is of con- (Alt, 1949). Finally, organizationsvary with duce organizationalbiases in estimation and evaluation represents a key step in the siderable importance since it affects the respect to the amount of resources they allow for differences among firms in the way planning process that is ignored in a model order in which they areevaluated. Typically, devote to organizational goals on the one in which they adjust their current estimates that uses objectives solely as the decision the procedures involved place a high pre- hand and suborganizational and individual on the basis of experience. rule. Certain organizational phenomena mium on alternatives that are "similar" to goalson the other. In particular, conflict and (M) Estimate costs. We do not assume, as (e.g., organizational slack) increase in im- alternatives chosen in the recent past by the partial conflict of interests is a feature of in the theory of the firm of economics, that portance because of the contingent conse- firm or by other firms of which it. is aware. most organizations and under some condi- the firm has achieved the optimum combina- quences of this step. If alternatives are generated strictly se- tions organizations develop substantial in- tion of resources and the lowest cost per ((>) Re-examine costs. We specify that quentially, the choice phase is quite simple: ternal slack susceptible to reduction under unit of output for any given size plant. We the failure to find a viable plan initially choose the first alternative that falls in the external pressure (Cyert & March, 19.%). believe it is necessaryto introduce thefactors results in the re-examination of estimates. estimate space, that is the set of positions The concept of organizational or internal that actually affect the firm's costs, esti- Although we list the re-examination of costs determined by the estimated demand and slack is used to describe a situation within an mated as well as achieved. first here, the order is dependent on some estimated cost curves. If more than one al- organization in which individual energies (4) Specify objectives. As has been noted features of the organization and will vary ternative; is generated at a time, a more potentially utilizable for the achievement of above, organizational "objectives" may from firm to firm. 1 An important feature of complicated choice process is required. For organizational goals are permitted to be di- (Miter at two distinct points and perform organizations is the extent to which a firm example, at this point maximization rules verted. The form of the slack may vary two quite distinct, functions. First, in this is able to "discover" under the pressure of may be applied to select from among the from a labor force not working at its full step they consist, in goals the organization unsatisfactory preliminary plans "cost sav- evoked alternatives.