OCTOBER 2016
Presidential Election Chartbook 1 Bottom Line
• Clinton increases lead in post-debate polls, including key swing states such as Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio
• Low number of undecided voters and disparate views on the candidates underlie growing polarization
• Our state-level vote-share model still projects a Democrat victory in Electoral College despite national estimates implying a tighter race
• Congress likely to be divided according to current projections
• Post-election zeitgeist unlikely to be conducive to major reforms and cooperation
DISCLAIMER: The economic-based election forecasts contained herein reflect economic conditions at the time of the forecast and are subject to change in tandem with economic conditions. Presidential Election Chartbook October 2016 Candidate perceptions Voter doubts about candidates’ personalities and qualifications have resulted in two highly unpopular candidates
Net Favorability, % Why Voters Dislike the Candidates, %
100% Biden +14 90% Is racist Obama +9 Is not 80% trustworthy Does not have the right Pence +8 experience to be president 70% Does not know enough Kaine -2 about the issues 60% Has extreme political views Is corrupt Democratic Party -4 50% Is sexist Clinton -10 40% Lacks experience Changes positions when 30% politically convenient Is not Johnson -13 trustworthy
20% Says one thing but does Is corrupt Stein -19 another Changes positions when Out of touch with average politically convenient 10% Americans Trump -25 Does not share Out of touch with average 0% my values Americans Republican Party -28 Clinton Trump
Sources: BBVA Research, Huffpost Pollster & Morning Consult Presidential Election Chartbook October 2016 A polarized time Fewer swing voters and stronger candidate preference suggests growing polarization
Actions of Registered Voters on Election Day, % Undecided and Voting for Other Candidate, %
Vote for the candidate from the 20% other political party than one you usually support 18% Reluctantly vote for the candidate 16% of the policitical party you usually support 14% Vote for candidate from one party for president and from other parties 12% for other offices 10% Vote for a third party or independent candidate 8% 6% 2016 Vote on other offices and questions but not vote for president 4% 2012 2% Not vote at all 0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not at all likely Unsure
Sources: BBVA Research, George Washington University Battleground Poll (Aug 28-Sept. 1) & Huffpost Pollster Presidential Election Chartbook October 2016 Birds of a feather… Trump Supporters Clinton Supporters
Share of friends supporting Trump Share of friends supporting Trump 3% 2%
13% 17%
44% 47%
38% A lot 34% Some Just a few Share of friends supporting Clinton Share of friends supporting Clinton 4% None 6%
11% 31% 21% 41%
40% 42%
Sources: BBVA Research & Pew Research *Results based on % of registered voters saying how many of their close friends support either candidate Presidential Election Chartbook October 2016 Implied outcomes from polls Post-debate polls show Clinton building a comfortable margin
Election Results vs. Polls, spread Key States Voting Probabilities, %
Democrats GOP
8 100 Election result 90 7 Poll avg. Sept-Nov 80 6 70
5 60 50 4 40 3 30 20 2 10 1 0
0 2016* 2012 2008
Sources: BBVA Research, RCP, NYT, PW, PEC, DK, FiveThirtyEight & HP *2016: implied results from polling average margins as of October in 2008 and 2012 elections
Presidential Election Chartbook October 2016 Econometric projections National projections imply tight race, but state-level projections still forecast Democrat victory (326 to 209 EV) BBVA Research National Vote-Share Results* State-Level Vote Share Projection
65% Actual Dec. 2015 Oct. 2016 "De Facto" Incumbent 60% GOP Majority
55%
50%
45%
40% Democrat Majority
35%
1972 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Source: BBVA Research Presidential Election Chartbook October 2016 Congressional elections While electorate favors a Democratic Congress, most likely outcome is a divided Congress and White House
Generic Congressional Poll, % Senate Election Probabilities, % 50 30
<1%
+12 Dem
45 1% +10 25 Dem
2% +8
40 Dem 5% 20 +6 35 Dem
10%
+4 Dem
30 15 17%
+2 Dem
21%
25 Even 10
20%
+2 Rep 20
15%
+4 Rep 5 7%
15 +6 Rep
2% +8 10 0 Rep
Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 <1%
+10 Rep Democrats Republicans Undecided (rhs) 0 5 10 15 20 25 8 Sources: BBVA Research, Real Clear Politics & New York Times Presidential Election Chartbook October 2016 Challenges for next presidential term Post-election mood unlikely to be one ripe for compromise
Congressional Bills by Status, %* Outstanding Issues for 115th Session of Congress
12% Enacted laws Passed resolutions Got a vote 115th Session
10% Supreme Court Vacancy on Supreme Court needs to be filled to restore nominee voting majority
Low productivity growth, inequality and inclusion, 8% U.S. Economic demographic shifts, weak investment, policy uncertainty, Competiveness education, taxes
6% Trans-Pacific Congressional authorization of the multi-lateral trade Partnership agreement likely to carry over from Obama's term
4% Bill to modernize the nation’s electric grid and expand Energy reform energy efficiency programs
2% Address DAPA/DACA, calls to providing Immigration Reform naturalization/citizenship and upgrading visa system.
Lower the burden on the growing number of individuals 0% Student Debt 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 unable to fulfill their current obligations
Sources: BBVA Research & GovTrack *by first year of session Previous Presidential Election Chartbooks https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Election-Chartbook_July-2016_final.pdf https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Election-Chartbook_March-2016_Final3.pdf https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Election-Chartbook-December-2015_final.pdf
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DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (each BBVA Group Company) for distribution in the United States and the rest of the world and is provided for information purposes only. Within the US, BBVA operates primarily through its subsidiary Compass Bank. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein refer to the specific date and are subject to changes without notice due to market fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources, believed to be correct by the Company concerning their accuracy, completeness, and/or correctness. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to acquire or dispose of an interest in securities.