Inside Ukraine

September 18, 2014 №29 Content

The Government Policy ...... 1

Poroshenko makes concessions to separatists ...... 1

100 days of Poroshenko’s presidency ...... 3

Economic Situation ...... 5

Implementation status of Poroshenko’s “economic” promises for the first 100 days . . . 5

Budget cannot be object of government manipulations ...... 6

Reform or tax pressure increase? ...... 7

Political competition ...... 8

Traditional approach to ’s party list design ...... 8

“People’s Front” is set to participate in elections independently ...... 9

“Batkivshchyna” makes a successful PR-trick ...... 10

Inside Ukraine 29 The Government Policy On September 16, 2014, it was a very produc- cation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade tive day in the Parliament. The parliamentary ma- Area (DCFTA) was suspended until the end of jority supported the presidential initiatives regard- 2015. Actually, it is another concession to Russia. ing a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Donbas, And this concession has a political, not economic namely, draft law on special order for local self-gov- covert sense, as the EU extends duty-free trading ernance in certain districts of and Lugansk preferences for Ukrainian goods till the end of regions, and draft law on amnesty to people in- 2015 as well. also adopted the law volved in the Donbas events. Adoption of the laws on lustration, which will be hardly impossible to is one of the commitments undertaken by Ukraine implement due to its vagueness. At the same time, under the . The major point of criti- the law on the Anti-Corruption Bureau establish- cism concerns creation of conditions for militants’ ment, which is one of the demands for the next IMF legalization in Donbas. Moreover, according to the tranche, was not supported by MPs. law, the regions under control of separatists will be This week the first 100 days of Petro Poroshenko’s financed from the state budget and extensive rights presidency have passed. Ratification of the AA has for local authorities without corresponding obliga- become one of the key events of this period. Other tions are guaranteed. Guaranteeing an uncondi- President’s achievements are the announcement of tional amnesty to the participants of the events in early parliamentary election, gaining international Eastern Ukraine also causes a harsh criticism, as in leaders’ support in confrontation with Russia and fact, the involvement of militants to certain crimes consistent defending of the peace plan on conflict would be virtually impossible to prove. settlement in Donbas. The greatest drawback of the On that day, the EU-Ukraine Association Agree- first 100 days of the presidency is the lack of effec- ment was ratified. However, the provisional appli- tive steps to implement reforms. Poroshenko makes concessions to separatists

Petro Poroshenko submitted the draft law “On makes considerable concessions to separatists, for the special order for local self-governance in cer- instance, regarding the issue of early local elec- tain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions” to tions, possibility to have special relations with Verkhovna Rada, which is one the points of the the Russian Federation, as well as independently Minsk agreements on conflict settlement in Don- influence appointment of judges and prosecutors bas. According to the draft law, the President and create local police.

Inside Ukraine 29 1 The Government Policy

Special order of local self-governance in certain account how critically the President’s initiative is districts is to be introduced for 3 years from the perceived by separatists, it is unlikely that such pre- date of law’s entry into force. However, the law does ventive actions will be effective. not specify which “certain areas” exactly will get An important provision is that the powers of the this status. They are defined by the vague formula- newly elected local government officials cannot be tion on inhabited settlements, “within the territory early terminated. It means that separatists will be specified by the head of the Anti-Terrorist Centre able to rule over a part of Donbas for at least five of the Security Service of Ukraine”. The absence of years, although the authors of the draft law expect a clear specification of the certain districts area is that the special status of certain districts will be risky, as the constant militants’ attacks on Ukraini- valid only for 3 years. an forces positions, despite bilateral truce, indicate Some of the separatists’ ideas, which were con- that separatists will attempt to expand the territory sidered by experts as unacceptable for Petro Poro- under their control. shenko two weeks ago, have also been embodied The draft law provides for amnesty to all per - in the legislative initiative of the President. For in- sons involved in the events in Donbas, even if these stance, appointment of prosecutors and judges in people have committed crimes on the territory, certain districts of Donbas will be held after con- which is now liberated from separatists. Thus, it is sultations with the newly elected representatives not only about certain districts, but the entire terri- of the local government. There will be also militia tory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, i.e. Slovyansk, units established in these Separatists’ and other cities. The basic condition districts. They will closely influence on for amnesty is laying down arms, releasing the hos- monitor the public order. formation of tages and liberating the administrative buildings Thus, militants almost get local prosecutors’ within one month after the law’s entry into force. a monopoly on the use of offices, courts and Only persons who com- The law does force, which is the exclu- police provides mitted serious crimes or not specify sive right of state authori- them with a are involved in the MH17 which districts ties. The separatists influ- part of state Boeing crash are not sub- of Donbas are ence on the formation of monopoly on the ject to amnesty. However, subject to its local prosecutor’s offices use of force and the question is how to provisions and courts also allows interpretation of prove these people’s guilt them to manipulate the legislation if Ukrainian law enforcement bodies do not func- letter of law. tion on that territory. Conditions for exemption Leaders of some districts of Donbas will have a from criminal and administrative responsibility are possibility to establish cross-border cooperation with to be determined by a separate bill, which has been the administrative units of the Russian Federation. also supported by MPs. At the same time, the Ukrainian government is The draft law “On special order” provides for committed to maintain socio-economic develop- conducting early local election on December 7, ment of certain districts. The local authorities of 2014. Thus, militants re- these territories may address the central executive ceived the possibility to Conducting local authorities to sign an agreement on economic, so- legalize their activities, election after cial and cultural development of certain districts. and political field will be parliamentary The Cabinet of Ministers shall begin consultations cleaned of any possible ones as a with local governments of certain districts on the opposition at the local preventive content of such agreements within 10 days. An ex- level. The fact that local measure from ceptional regime of economic and investment activ- election will be held af- disrupting of ities aimed at reconstruction of infrastructure and ter parliamentary ones is the election by industrial facilities is provided at the legislative level. considered as measures separatists Thus, restoration of Donbas is going to be fi- to prevent separatists from disrupting elections on nanced from the state budget under the state pro- the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions con- grams. It seems that the Ukrainian government trolled by the Ukrainian government. Taking into is paying contribution to Donbas to end the war

2 Inside Ukraine 29 The Government Policy and retain the region as part of Ukraine. Consid- President is ready to make concessions to sepa- ering the level of expenditures required to restore ratists in order to be able to hold parliamentary elec- financially depressive region, which is also now tions. For a successful vote on the draft law, Petro Po- destroyed by the war, fi- roshenko has managed to It seems that The procedure of nancing of certain dis- mobilize “UDAR” faction, presidential draft tricts will become a black the Ukrainian loyal deputies and former government is laws adoption has hole for the state budget, “regionals”, who have busi- caused a harsh which already suffers paying tribute to nesses on the territory Donbas in order criticism in civil from chronic deficit. In controlled by separat- society addition, such an ap- to end the war ists and are interested in proach will curb reforms implementation and fight granting a part of Donbas with a privileged status. against corruption, as granting a privilege status for However, the closed nature of this decision and the certain districts increases corruption risks of doing direct President’s interference in Parliament’s activi- business in that region. ties cause even more questions in the society. 100 days of Poroshenko’s presidency During presidential election campaign, Petro 3) Establishment of National Council for Poroshenko had a very ambitious program. As for Reforms as the main body for reforms him, “to live in a new way” meant decentralization, elaboration. anti-corruptive lustration, police reform, judicial and prosecutor’s office reform. It also included fight Petro Poroshenko consistently promotes the for the return of Crimea, steps to enable Ukraine’s idea of a peace plan for Donbas, which allowed accession to the EU, simplification of business con- him to position himself as a peacemaker during the ditions and energy independence of Ukraine. whole period of the presidential election campaign. However, all these goals are impossible to He is going to use the same idea during the parlia- achieve with those President’s powers under the mentary elections. current Constitution. The only option is to elabo- As for defense issues, first 100 days of Poroshen- rate respective draft laws, as the President retains ko’s presidency were remarked with 10-day cease- the right of legislative initiative. But lack of his own fire, which allowed Ukrainian military to regroup political force in the Parliament, and even more — their forces and prove the 100 days of the possibility to rely on Pre-election Ukrainian government’s Poroshenko’s a stable parliamentary promises of the desire for a peaceful set- presidency are majority — significantly President cannot tlement of the conflict. remarked with limit the set of tools avail- be fulfilled with Later, within six weeks, 10-day ceasefire able to him to implement those powers ATO forces liberated one and six-week reforms. Therefore, Petro he has under town after another, hav- progress in ATO Poroshenko consistently the current ing greatly reduced the supports the idea of early Constitution territory controlled by militants. However, the de- parliamentary elections. ployment of Russian troops and a failed operation All President’s steps during the first 100 days of near Ilovaysk forced the Ukrainian authorities to sit his presidency can be classified according to three at the negotiating table again, which led to signing directions: of the Minsk protocol. At the international arena, Petro Poroshenko is 1) ATO in Donbas and increasing of the much more active than even the Minister of For- country’s defense capacity; eign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin. President has managed 2) Cooperation with international leaders in to get the support of the majority of world lead- order to get financial and military support in ers and prove that Ukraine is a victim of Russian confrontation with Russia; aggression. Because of this, G7 countries and the

Inside Ukraine 29 3 The Government Policy

European Union imposed sanctions against Russia, the judicial reform should begin with the reform which in the long term may have a major impact on of prosecution. Although the Prosecutor General’s Russian economy and foreign policy. This June, the Office is headed by a person, who is under influ- very idea of third-level sanctions against Russia was ence of Poroshenko, the principles of prosecutors’ considered as impossible. work have not been changed. As it was promised in the election program, Pet- In addition, over the past six months, there has ro Poroshenko signed economic part of the Asso- been a series of infamous crimes, investigation ciation Agreement and submitted the document for results of which were not presented to the public ratification by the Parliament. Petro Poroshenko (fire in the House of Trade Unions in Odesa, in- clearly promotes pro-European course of Ukraine, formation leakage in the ATO management, shoot suggesting that the As- Petro Poroshenko down of a plane with paratroopers near Lugansk, sociation Agreement clearly defends “Ilovaysk pocket” and unsatisfactory military intel- provides a roadmap for pro-European ligence activities). It means that Prosecutor General reforms in Ukraine and course of Ukraine remains extremely passive. brings it closer to the Eu- The civil society had great expectations regard- ropean standards. ing the appointment of the NBU Head Valeriya President initiated the establishment of the Na- Hontaryeva. So far, they were not justified. Hryvnya tional Council for Reforms, which is engaged in broke several records of its fall. The measures im- elaboration of reform concepts and their unifica- plemented by the National Bank to support the FX tion into “Strategy 2020”. The ultimate goal of this rate are insufficient. The situation with FX rate has strategy is to ensure submission of Ukraine’s appli- led to the fact that the depositors of troubled banks, cation for EU membership. who cannot return their deposits, and borrowers, The good news is that the civic activists were who return FX loans at exorbitant prices, organize involved in the Council’s activities on the basis of protest actions. transparent competition. The bad news is the de- Thus, the main promises fulfilled by Petro Po- lay in formation of the Council, which has already roshenko over the first hundred days of presiden- lasted for 3 months. According to Dmytro Shymkiv, cy, are as follows: signing of the economic part of the formation will be completed only after parlia- the Association Agreement and its ratification in mentary election. Thus, the issue of reform elabora- the Parliament, announcement of early parliamen- tion is postponed for an indefinite period of time. tary election and consistent support to the idea of President’s activities are assessed not only on the peaceful settlement of the Donbas conflict. The top basis of his actions, but also based on the steps of 5 promises which have not been implemented in- his team. Petro Poroshenko directly appointed the clude introduction of proportional electoral system Minister of Defence (Valeriy Heletey), the Minister with open lists, elaboration of amendments to the of Foreign Affairs (Pavlo President’s work Constitution, particularly on the issue of decentral- Klimkin), the Prosecutor is also assessed ization, justice and law enforcement reform, fight General (Vitaliy Yare- on the basis of his against corruption, pro- Petro Poroshenko ma) and the NBU Head team’s actions tection of Crimean Tatars has already (Valeriya Hontaryeva). and steps on returning managed to fulfill During the presentation of the National Council, Crimea (Donbas issue some of his pre- Petro Poroshenko called the judicial reform as the completely replaced this election promises “reform of all reforms”. However, experts agree that issue).

4 Inside Ukraine 29 Economic Situation For the first 100 days in the office President did system. Therefore, there is no point in presenting some steps to fulfill his “economic” promises, but the budget without conducting tax and budget re- there are no specific results in this sphere yet. Ac- form. cording to the current Constitution, a major instru- Recently Verkhovna Rada adopted the law “On ment President possesses is legislative initiative. Yet introduction of amendments to Tax Code and some he does not use it to elaborate concepts of reforms. other bills (on improvement of some provisions)”, This task was assigned to Presidential Administra- which increases tax burden on oil and gas sector tion, namely Dmytro Shymkiv. companies from 17.5% to 55%. Hastily adopted law Again, Cabinet of Ministers violated the deadline provokes more questions than answers. It will de- of submitting project of state budget for the next crease investment attractiveness of Ukrainian en- year to Verkhovna Rada. Government explains that ergy sector and reform process will be transformed a new budget should be based on a new taxation into a desire to impose higher taxes on the industry. Implementation status of Poroshenko’s “economic” promises for the first 100 days

In his electoral program Petro Poroshenko de- in reform-making was delegated to Presidential fined rather clear economic priorities. The major Administration, namely Dmytro Shymkiv, deputy focus was the following: in tax sphere taxes should head of the Administration, who came from the become lower and their number should decrease, business sphere. in international economic activities — economic Dmytro Shymkiv initiated several events related part of the Association Agreement with the EU to elaboration of the strategy on economic reforms. should be signed promptly. Work on anticorruption, justice and deregulation Taking into account actual war with Russia and reforms was announced as well. A positive thing is threat to territorial integrity of Ukraine, after be- that Mr. Shymkiv tries to ensure maximum trans- coming President Petro Petro Poroshenko parency of the process through public consulta- Poroshenko focused on focused on tions with inclusion of stake-holders and experts. military, domestic and military, domestic Presidential electoral promise that the Associa- foreign policy issues. and foreign policy tion Agreement will become a basis for reforms is Coordination function issues not fulfilled so far. However, Mr. Shymkiv assured

Inside Ukraine 29 5 Economic Situation that in “Strategy 2020” it is the Association Agree- and his team have been observed. Government re- ment that would become a road map for transfor- mains a major driver of tax reform. mations in the country. Another contradictory idea of Poroshenko’s The Administration also initiated deregulation presidential campaign which was not yet reflected reform, which will decrease the number of control- in any reform concept is the idea of making An- ling bodies from 83 to 19 and introduce over 800 ti-Trust Committee of Ukraine a major economic amendments in various spheres of economy. regulator. In the area of fight against corruption one of the In general, Poroshenko’s team started work in major initiatives was to create an Anticorruption all the reform areas defined in his electoral pro- bureau — a system of specially authorized subjects gram. However, there are no specific results yet. It in the sphere of fight against corruption. Its maxi- is caused by low speed of reform elaboration and mum staff will consist of 700 employees, who will implementation. Though there is a general belief work in seven territorial National Council that President has limited scope of functions, he administrations. As it is for Reforms and owns a major tool to implement reforms — legis- the case with National Anti-Corruption lative initiative, and thus Legislative Council for Reforms, Bureau do not an opportunity to intro- initiative is Anti-Corruption Bureau function yet duce institutional chang- one of major does not function yet. es. Therefore, reform- instruments Regardless of electoral promises to conduct a making process could be President has radical tax reform, no initiatives from President faster and more effective. Implementation status of Poroshenko’s “economic” promises for the first 100 days Again, government has not submitted budget mit budget with existing taxation system, when project to Parliament in time. According to Article tax reform, reform of single social payment and 37 of Budget Code, Cabi- budget reform have not been implemented. In this net of Ministers adopts Again, government has case, it will mean “pro- resolution on state bud- cess of economic decay, Government get draft and submits it not submitted requires from budget project but not stabilization”. The with all the respective very moment Parliament Verkhovna Rada documents to Verkhovna to Parliament in to support its tax time votes for reforms govern- Rada and President not ment promotes, the law reform later than September 15. on state budget will be presented. Such position of Yet, violation of deadlines for budget submis- government contradicts current legislation — there sion has been typical for Ukraine since 1991. For is no law which allows officials to submit or not instance, in 2007 the budget was submitted on No- submit the budget project depending on “reforms vember 28, in 2008 — on December 23, in 2009 — and other laws”. in time, on September 15, in 2010 — on December Meanwhile, government registered draft law 10, in 2011 — in time, in 2012 — on December 3. on amendments to Budget Code (as for reform of The most interesting case was in 2013 when a re- inter-budget relations) and draft law on amend- spective draft law was submitted on September 15, ments to Tax Code and some other bills (as for tax but at once it was returned to Cabinet of Ministers reform). We have repeatedly criticized the govern- for fine-tuning. In fact, it was not even registered. ment initiatives — “Package of Economic Growth” Prime-Minister explains violation of deadlines and “Recovery of Ukraine”, which lay the ground with the statement that government will not sub- for these draft laws. Though tax pressure decrease

6 Inside Ukraine 29 Economic Situation is expected by society, most taxes and dues are not transfer important functions in social and cultural cancelled. They get new forms through increase of spheres, such as education and healthcare, support tax rates, new taxes are introduced and some tax of sport teams and their training complexes, main- benefits for enterprises are cancelled. tenance of national and state establishments, to lo- Though government declared bigger financial cal level. So called reforms may result in economic autonomy for regions, it is proposed to take away or decay of regions, but not their financial indepen- re-distribute taxes and dues which provide the larg- dence. est proceedings for local Part of Therefore, government initiatives on tax reform budgets. For instance, proceedings and budget decentralization should be fine-tuned losses from smaller pro- will be taken after consultations with stake-holders: business, ceedings of individual in- away from local NGOs and local authorities. Only afterwards it come tax may constitute budgets may be submitted to Verkhovna Rada for ap- up to UAH 26 bln. It was proval. Moreover, draft Opinion of stake- this item that provided 70.7% of all the proceedings law on state budget 2015 holders should be to local budgets in 2013. Doubtful excise on retail should have been reg- taken into account trade, wider basis for property tax or environment istered in time without while elaborating tax cannot compensate these losses. In general, becoming the object of tax reform proposed reform may cut revenues of local budgets political speculations for by UAH 6 bln. At the same time, it is planned to government. Reform or tax pressure increase? Central bodies of executive power, national en- As a result, increase of tax burden on oil and ergy company and private companies are major ac- gas companies up to 55% makes development of tors in implementing international commitments of Ukrainian companies virtually impossible. Energy our country in the sphere of Ukrainian energy mar- business has quite a peculiar nature. Commercial ket reform. Yet, society support is vital for reform energy companies have high profitability of end implementation. Desired Coordination of all product. Yet, exploration of new wells is a risky af- transparency may be the energy sector fair. One may invest in exploration of ten wells and reached only when efforts actors is needed receive gas from none of them. Obviously, revenues of all subjects in the ener- for transparency of oil and gas companies are first and foremost in- gy sector are coordinated. vested in exploration of new fields. However, these Energy sector may be successfully reformed activities are intangible assets and banks usually do only when international and Ukrainian experts in not provide financing for such projects. Attraction the field are involved in the analysis of the sector of foreign investments in energy sector is problem- issues. Implementation of innovations in energy atic when respective taxes amount to 55%. There- sector is to be preceded by intensive intellectual fore, it is questionable whether Ukrainian compa- work. However, first steps of respective Ministry in nies are capable to develop new drills. It is a lengthy the area of energy sector reform are surprising. In process which may take up to 3-5 years. particular, draft law No. 4309a “On introduction of It is impossible to reform energy sector in haste amendments to Tax Code and some other bills (on and without consultations with all the stake-hold- improvement of some provisions)” caused an active ers. Otherwise, reform will only transform into in- discussion, namely representatives of private energy crease of tax burden on Energy sector companies published an open letter on July 29, 2014. the industry. So far gov- cannot be Regardless of the open address, proposed draft law ernment chose the path reformed in haste turned into a law. Commentaries of oil and gas sec- of this kind. tor experts were not taken into consideration.

Inside Ukraine 29 7 Political competition September 15, 2014, was the deadline for sub- help extend the number of potential party seats mission of party lists for parliamentary elections. for businessmen and “old politicians”, may get Most players have included civic activists and ATO greatly disappointed. The truth is that the major- participants in the upper part of the electoral list to ity of political parties participating in this election increase the party chances to win. In this respect, campaign are competing on the same electoral pro-presidential party “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” field. Except for Petro Poroshenko and Oleh Lyas- stays aloof. The strategy of pro-presidential party hko, there are no other favourites in this election will be drawn on a direct link to President’s actions campaign. The parties like “Civic position”, “Bat- and Poroshenko’s personal approval ratings. Addi- kivshchyna”, and “People’s Front” may expect to tional PR-steps, like inclusion of activ- get as many as 30 mandates under proportional ists in the party electoral list, will play a secondary electoral system. Since first 20 candidates in their role. For this reason, unlike other political parties, party lists include a plenty of civic activists, it pro- the electoral list of “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” has vides a social and political platform for civic activ- the biggest number of well-known politicians with ists to enter Ukrainian politics and thus renew the a significant track record as an MP. elite. In addition, civic activists who have already Party leaders, who think that the political been included in electoral lists have come up with branding of electoral lists by including civic activ- the idea of inter-faction parliamentary group in ists and commanders of voluntary battalions will the new Parliament. Traditional approach to Petro Poroshenko’s party list design

Unlike other political parties, pro-presidential enko and Klitschko’s teams. However, it is hard party is not trying to engage new faces in its elec- to draw the line between the two teams, as many tion campaign. Vitali Pro-presidential UDAR members have been very loyal to Petro Po- Klitschko became No. 1 party is not roshenko since the presidential elections. Though in the party list, whereas trying to engage politicians like Vitali Kovalchuk and Iryna Her- the rest of the party list new faces in its ashchenko used to be main players in Klitschko’s was divided under 70:30 election campaign . team, now they are on the electoral list under ratio between Porosh- President’s quota.

8 Inside Ukraine 29 Political Competition

Nevertheless, the President did draw a few civic laws related to Poroshenko’s peace plan were ap- activists to his party, namely Olha Bohomolets, a proved by Ukrainian Parliament on September 16, renowned Ukrainian doctor, Serhiy Leshchenko 2014. and Mustafa Nayem, Ukrainian journalists, as However, the draft law “On special order of local well as representatives of a non-governmental sec- self-governance in some districts of Donetsk and tor — Oleksandr Chernenko (“Ukrainian voters Lugansk regions” faced harsh criticism from Ukrai- committee”) and Svitlana Zalishchuk (“Chesno” nian society. The said draft law provides for some movement). Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the major concessions to separatists. It raises no doubt Crimean Tatar National Movement, is on the 5th that many political parties will try to turn this situa- place in the party list, which is supposed to send tion to their advantage, in particular “Svoboda” and a positive signal to Crimean people. However, for- “Batkivshchyna”. It is not the content of the draft mer MPs loyal to Poroshenko as well as persons in- law that caused public outcry but rather the way it volved in the development of a new Poroshenko’s was adopted, as the voting was done behind closed political party form the biggest part of the list. doors. If the President President’s draft This political party is confident about its victory, allows for such lapses laws on peaceful linking the campaign to Petro Poroshenko and his in communication with resolution of the successful actions at domestic and international Parliament and Ukrai- conflict in Donbas level, including the ratification of the much-expect- nian society in future, it may seriously hit ed Association Agreement between Ukraine and may seriously diminish the position of his the EU as well as peaceful resolution of the armed the chances of his politi- party conflict in Ukraine’s East. The presidential draft cal party at elections. “People’s Front” is set to participate in elections independently Following the continued talks with Petro Poro- battalions on “People’s Front” electoral list. The shenko, Arseniy Yatseniuk failed to reach agree- military nature of “People’s Front” is underlined by ments with President. Ukrainian Prime-Minister the inclusion of , Ukrainian Interior was seeking to get one third of the upper part of Minister, and , former Head of Na- the electoral list, change the name of the party tional Security and Defence Council, in the upper as well as become the 1st on party list. However, part of the electoral list. Among the civic activists “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko” and “People’s Front” on the party list who have already tried themselves have pledged to agree their candidates in single- in politics there are the former deputy head of Na- seat districts. There is also a good chance for the tional Security and Defence Council Viktoria Si- alliance of their political parties after the parlia- umar and former government commissioner on mentary elections. fight against corruption Tetiana Chornovol. The While Petro Poroshenko positions him- upper part of the electoral list also includes the self as a “peace-maker”, the new party of names of those politicians who recently left “Bat- Yatseniuk&Turchynov clearly underlines their kivshchyna” alongside Yatseniuk and Turchynov. militarist nature, drawing a clear line between Since “People’s Front” is pro-government party, their and Poroshenko’s “Bloc of Petro it thus has a fair chance of “Bloc of Petro attitude towards separat- Poroshenko” and winning in single-seat dis- Poroshenko” and ists. This explains why “People’s Front” tricts where the party has “People’s Front” there are many com- have different already nominated candi- have different manders of voluntary electoral fields dates with high ratings. electoral fields

Inside Ukraine 29 9 Political Competition “Batkivshchyna” makes a successful PR-trick Yulia Tymoshenko fulfilled her promise and and “People’s Front” lists, may unite after getting to surprised Ukrainian society with “Batkivshchyna” the Parliament. The joint statement of these candi- electoral list. The biggest PR-effect was caused by dates as to the creation of inter-faction group in the No. 1 on “Batkivshchyna” list, who is not Yulia Ty- new Parliament has already appeared in the me- moshenko herself but Nadia Savchenko, Ukrainian dia. Civic activists need to learn how to withstand pilot and active ATO combatant, who is now in jail the pressure of existing political system and party in Russia. The case of Savchenko has become one of leadership as well as to stand up for their principles the first proofs of Russia’s involvement in the con- which they stuck to during their work in non-gov- flict in Donbas. Ms. Savchenko is now facing legal ernmental sector. proceedings in a court of law where she is staunchly “Batkivshchyna” will build its electoral campaign advocating her pro-Ukrainian position. on the criticism of Petro Poroshenko in regard to Except for “Samopomich” and “Power of People”, his concessions to separatists and the adoption of the list of “Batkivshchyna” contains probably the the law “On special order of local self-governance biggest number of civic activists. Yulia Tymoshenko in some districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions”. had to move her party functionaries down the party One of the aspects which seriously influenced pres- list to make room for new Tymoshenko idential campaign of Yulia Tymoshenko and will faces from civil society. had to move influence her current parliamentary campaign is “Batkivshchyna” builds her old party lack of access to media resources. Ukrainian Par- its electoral campaign on functionaries liament is practically the only showcase for “Bat- the idea of its renewal. As down the party kivshchyna”. “Batkivshchyna” will use it for the Tymoshenko was eager list to make room most critical statements A serious mistake to improve her rankings, for new faces and populist draft laws. of “Batkivshchyna” she invited civic activists from civil society At the same time, a seri- is the absence of to fill the upper part of ous mistake of “Batkivsh- outstanding and the electoral list. For Tymoshenko, it is an accept- chyna” is the absence of feasible program able price to pay in order to improve standing of outstanding and feasible to present to her party at parliamentary elections by few points. election program to pres- public . In addition, this step is aimed to demonstrate that ent to the public. “Batkivshchyna” has not been badly hit by the “re- However, all the main political parties have treat” of the group of Yatseniuk-Turchynov. failed to prepare outstanding election programs, Civic activists, who are on top of “Bloc of Pet- concentrating instead on formation of party lists, ro Poroshenko”, “Batkivshchyna”, “Civic position”, which can easily “be sold” to voters.

10 Inside Ukraine 29 The aim of the publication is to provide objective information on current political events in Ukraine and thorough analysis of major tendencies in domestic politics. Such analysis will assist in setting priorities in the process of implementing reforms in Ukraine and in evaluating quality of state decisions from the viewpoint of their impact and sustainability. Special attention is paid to evaluation of political competition in Ukraine and ability of key political players to address challenges.

@2014 International Center for Policy Studies (ICPS) If citing please give reference on the ICPS

Idea of the project: Vira Nanivska

Responsible for the project: Iaroslav Kovalchuk

Responsible for the chapters:

The Government Policy — Iaroslav Kovalchuk Economic Situation — Vasyl Povoroznyk Political Competition — Iaroslav Kovalchuk

Team of ICPS experts: Vira Nanivska, Iaroslav Kovalchuk, Vasyl Povoroznyk, Angela Bochi, Anatoliy Oktysyuk, Olena Zakha- rova, Volodymyr Prytula, Vasyl Filipchuk

This issue is made possible by financial support of International Renaissance Foundation. Views ex- pressed in the issue do not necessarily reflect those of International Renaissance Foundation

Inside Ukraine 29