Distributed Defectors Solar-plus-battery systems upset the balance of grid-sourced electricity BMW’s Carbon Fiber i3 Meet the world’s first composite-intensive mainstream electric vehicle

WINTER 2014 2025 Goals VOL. 7 NO. 1 RMI scales up, drives impact, and gets accountable TABLE OF CONTENTS Transportation Buildings Industry Electricity General Energy WINTER 2014 /VOL. 7 NO. 1

FEATURE FEATURE FEATURE

DISTRIBUTED DEFECTORS BMW’S BIG BET ON CARBON FIBER TAKING A STAND A day is coming when solar-plus-battery With the new i3, the world meets the RMI unveils bold goals to drive impact, systems will become cheaper than utility- first composite-intensive mainstream EV Commits to speed, scale, and accountability 18 sourced electricity, making customer 24 28 grid defection a possibility. But when and where could this happen, and is defection in everyone’s best interest? A new RMI report, The Economics of Grid Defection, offers some answers.

COLUMNS & DEPARTMENTS

CEO LETTER INNOVATION BEACON

REINVENTING RMI STREAMLINING SOLAR THE HIGH-RENEWABLES Scaling up, driving impact, To tackle PV’s ‘soft’ costs, PATHWAY and getting accountable it takes a solar-friendly Caribbean islands are on 04 12 community 32 the road to a clean energy future Our Printing and Paper AMORY’S ANGLE INSIGHTS This issue of Solutions Journal is printed on elemental chlorine- free paper. Specifically, it is #2 FSC-certified CPC Matte Book and RAMPING UP RENEWABLE RECENT WHITE PAPERS IT TAKES A VILLAGE FSC-certified CPC Matte Cover, Sappi Papers in Minnesota, sourced ELECTRICITY & REPORTS Moving beyond net-zero from SFI-certified pulp. Using certified paper products promotes High-percentage renewables buildings to net-zero environmentally appropriate and economically viable management 06 prove they can provide 15 36 districts and communities of the world’s forests. reliable power Staff Publisher – Rocky Mountain Institute RMI IN BRIEF WALK THE WALK BY THE NUMBERS Editorial Director – Peter Bronski Writer/Editor – Laurie Guevara-Stone NEWS FROM AROUND THE PEDAL PUSHER DEEP RETROFIT VALUE Art Director – Romy Purshouse INSTITUTE Can one RMI staffer Designer – Chris Rowe help his mountain town 09 16 embrace bike sharing? 39 Electricity images courtesy of Shutterstock. i3 image copyright BMW AG. CEO LETTER

by Jules Kortenhorst to you. Making societal change happen, especially in an area as challenging as global energy use, is hard and complex work with lots of uncertainty. But we at RMI stand behind our commitment to Reinventing RMI deliver impact. Thus we are increasing investments in our programs in buildings, electricity, and communities in the U.S. And we are also putting ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE a very significant effort into working with AWARDED GENEROUS SCALING UP, DRIVING IMPACT, AND GETTING China. Meanwhile—building on RMI’s historic strengths—we are exploring new opportunities in FUNDING FROM DUTCH ACCOUNTABLE transportation, industry, and more. POSTCODE LOTTERY This issue of Solutions Journal highlights some of RMI is excited to announce it has been the ways we are aiming to achieve that greater renewed as a beneficiary of the Dutch For more than 30 years, RMI has championed the shift impact. You will read: How we’re bringing our Postcode Lottery and was awarded from fossil fuels to efficiency and renewables, both in Reinventing Fire vision not only to places like $1.2 million at the Lottery’s Goed Geld the United States and abroad. We have made progress Fort Collins (Colorado), Arizona State University, Gala in Amsterdam in early February. The in influencing thought leaders and key players, and Minnesota, but also to all of China. How second largest charitable funder in the generating breakthrough insights, and piloting and we are accelerating the adoption of clean solar world, the Postcode Lottery gave a record scaling solutions. But more of that important work energy by streamlining the permitting process €302 million to 101 charities around the remains to do. The pace at which we transform global in communities and showing how utilities, world. Archbishop Desmond Tutu gave an energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure customers, and energy developers can leverage inspiring speech at the event. future needs to be significantly faster than it has been. solar power and battery storage systems to create RMI is honored to be a partner of the Equally important, this is a global challenge, so we an optimized, reliable, clean, decentralized Postcode Lottery, along with many other need to make our impact on a global scale, beyond the grid. How automakers like BMW are embracing worthy charities, including Peace Parks,

borders of the United States where RMI was born. ultralight materials and electrification, and how CEO Letter World Wildlife Fund, Carbon War Room, The RMI is working with the auto industry to take We recently went through a strategy exercise to refocus Climate Group, and the Clinton Foundation. such shifts mainstream. And how we are driving RMI on driving even greater impact. That impact comes RMI has received over $7 million in 5 greater investment in commercial buildings’ with great benefits. It unlocks trillions of dollars of funding from the Postcode Lottery over the energy efficiency by helping investors count the economic value. It bolsters the security and resilience past six years. full value of deep retrofits. of our energy systems. And it creates a greener, cleaner

world for you and me and our children to live in. But Such exciting and important work is only just the Winter 2014 these linked goals, from our economy to our security beginning. To deliver our promised impact, we to the environment, are now increasingly threatened need to increase the scope, scale, and speed at by climate change. We must take action, and we must which we work. RMI must widen our global reach, do it now. accelerate the pace of our programs, and forge more and stronger partnerships. And we need to RMI has a concrete vision for what a clean, prosperous, BE PART OF THE SOLUTION make RMI bigger…to grow our talented, dedicated and secure future looks like. We call that vision staff; to expand our influence; to make a greater Philanthropic support makes RMI’s work Reinventing Fire—a fundamental transformation impact much sooner. For that we will also continue possible. Join us by making a donation today in global energy use from fossil fuels to advanced to need your help and support. to help create a clean, prosperous, and secure efficiency and renewables. If we can succeed in this energy future. transformation—and we must—we can tackle climate We cannot afford to wait; we need to do this now. change and achieve the economic, security, and When I think of the legacy we are leaving for my Give an unrestricted gift or target your gift environmental benefits we all hold dear in our hearts four kids and their entire generation, I realize the to support an RMI project that addresses and minds. urgency of the challenge we have before us. At the your passion. same time I am excited that RMI is ready and able Turning Reinventing Fire from vision into reality—by to step up to that challenge, scale up our programs, 2050, if not sooner—is a big goal. That’s why our recent WWW.RMI.ORG/DONATE and help bring forth a clean, prosperous, and strategy process defined ambitious and impactful 2025 secure energy future. program goals to drive change, as well as near-term milestones that each guide our next steps. “OUR DONORS ARE

Those goals and milestones (about which you can read MAKING IT POSSIBLE” —AMORY LOVINS

on page 28) are measurable, because more than ever RMI. copyright Image before, RMI is ready to be accountable, to ourselves and AMORY’S ANGLE

by Amory Lovins Out on the edge of the European grid, Spain grid operator reported actual national windpower generated 49 percent renewable electricity in the generation very close to its forecast one day ahead first half of 2013, and Portugal, interconnected only (see graph below). The small remaining errors with Spain, an astonishing 70 percent (respectively disappeared in the hours before actual dispatch. Ramping Up 29 and 30 percent excluding hydropower). For all of 2013, Spain’s electrical generation was 32 INTEGRATING DISPATCHABLE percent renewable (30 without hydro), Portugal’s RENEWABLES 47 (44). Similarly, Scotland, a net exporter linked only to England and Wales, generated electricity Modern grid operators are also melding an even Renewable Electricity 40 percent renewably (36 without hydro). broader slate of resources. They start with wind and PV power, diversified by location (so they For brief periods, the first four of these high- don’t all see the same weather at the same time) and renewables countries have respectively achieved by type (so they don’t all react in the same way). AS GRID OPERATORS COMBINE VARIOUS TECHNIQUES, 70, 136, 61, and 100 percent renewable generation, Operators next add the other, “dispatchable,” kinds just as Xcel Energy in Colorado briefly surpassed of renewables that can operate whenever they’re HIGH-PERCENTAGE RENEWABLES PROVE THEY CAN 60 percent from windpower last year. needed and in good working order: big and small hydropower, several emerging kinds of marine IMPROVED FORECASTING AND energy, solar-thermal-electric plants whose stored PROVIDE RELIABLE POWER PREDICTABILITY heat can stretch their operation into or through the night, geothermal, and burning biomass, biogas, or Modern PVs and windpower are among the most wastes (often in combined-heat-and-power plants Many people in the electricity industry long thought that reliable known generating technologies (typically of various sizes, including “green gas” or natural the two renewable sources of electricity that vary widely 98–99 percent technically available), but their output gas in fuel cells, or cogeneration from waste heat). over time—windpower and solar photovoltaics (PVs) varies strongly with time and weather. Fortunately, —could provide only a few percent of total generation one generator doesn’t serve one load; all generators ADDING DISTRIBUTED STORAGE without endangering reliability. Those who still believe together serve the grid, which melds them to serve Amory’s Angle Amory’s this now face increasingly severe reality tests. all loads. Thus the giant German utility RWE, Another key flexibility resource is distributed working with Siemens, “synthesizes” steady output As we’ll see, Germany and other countries are electricity storage—as heat (such as ice-storage 7 from a diverse portfolio of varying renewables. successfully powering their grids with astonishingly air conditioning) or as electricity (such as smart high fractions of renewable generation by combining Such stable and reliable power comes from charging of electric vehicles or battery backups five techniques: a) leveraging diverse generation choreographing many shifting resources, so for solar PV systems). With smarter grids, car sources across interconnected regional and national variable outputs must be accurately forecast. charging can be bidirectional, drawing some peak Winter 2014 grids, b) improving renewables’ forecasting and Though still improving, forecasting is already power back from the car when it’s exceptionally predictability, c) integrating dispatchable renewables, so good that PV and windpower are often more valuable—of course, without compromising d) adding distributed storage, and e) leveraging predictable than electricity demand. For example, driving. Tesla, other automakers, and several solar demand response. throughout a stormy winter month, the French developers are developing such capabilities. Tesla,

GENERATION DIVERSITY AND INTERCONNECTED GRIDS Hourly Actual vs. Forecasted Wind Generation In Germany, renewables contributed 23 percent of total France, December 2011 electricity generation for 2012. In Denmark, renewables 5.0 produced an even more impressive 41 percent— Actual Forecast windpower alone produced 33 percent for all of 2013 4.5 and 54.8 percent for December. These two countries 4.0 had Europe’s most reliable electricity, about ten times 3.5 more reliable than America’s. 3.0 GW 2.5 Both countries swap electricity with neighbors on two or more sides, helping to balance windfarms’ and 2.0 Source: Bernard Chabot, 1.5 PVs’ variable output. Denmark, for example, exports 10 April 2013, Fig. 7, www. windpower when the country’s turbines are generating a 1.0 renewablesinternational.net/ wind-power-statistics-by-the- surplus, and imports hydropower from the Scandinavian 0.5 hour/150/505/61845/, data from grid when it needs to. But such interconnections may be 0 French TSO RTE 8017 8137 8257 8377 8497 8617 8737 less important than many think. HOUR OF THE YEAR 2011 Image courtesy Shutterstock. of AMORY’S ANGLE

now the world’s largest battery manufacturer, percent or less in “balancing reserves,” while is also piggybacking on its world-class battery big thermal power stations require three times and inverter production for cars to offer very that reserve. efficient, reliable, and economical distributed As more countries build more renewables, any storage modules for buildings and factories. limits of this strategy will increasingly be tested. RMI in Brief And firms like Sunverge, SolarCity, Solar Grid So far, practice is confirming analysis. The Storage, Stem, and a growing list of others are National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2011 starting to (or already) offer distributed storage REFS study showed how to run an 80–90 percent to complement solar PV. renewable U.S. grid in 2050 with only 136 GW NEWS FROM AROUND THE INSTITUTE LEVERAGING DEMAND RESPONSE (about 10 percent of the total renewable capacity) of added bulk storage. RMI’s 80-percent- and 38 percent of the company’s domestic mall energy Operators can also integrate with “demand renewable Transform scenario in Reinventing Fire consumption. Following analysis at military bases response,” which controls or influences when added less bulk storage—67 GW (6.3 percent) PROJECT GET READY in Colorado and Kentucky to identify oppertunities, customers use electricity for particular tasks. —mainly because its renewables were Exchange CEO Tom Shull has earmarked $30 million for Your utility may pay you to allow your electric half-distributed. Launched in early 2009, RMI’s Project Get Ready (PGR) worked with over 25 cities and 40 strategic partners to develop and energy efficiency retrofits to help reach this goal. water heater to be turned off occasionally for The more we let all options compete—demand- disseminate best practices for electric vehicle integration and a quarter-hour; you’ll never notice such “load side resources can now bid into power auctions adoption. PGR’s accomplishments included the oft-cited EV management.” Many building services and in about three-fifths of the U.S.—the more City Casebook, which details the policies, incentive programs, industrial processes can use smart controls we can discover in the marketplace how far SHAPING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE IN and customer behaviors of 16 pioneering cities and regions unobtrusively to make demand surprisingly customer-centric, distributed supply- and MINNESOTA around the world. Now, RMI is shifting gears from PGR to the flexible to make the grid agile. Modern demand-side resources can deliver reliable Autocomposites Commercialization Launchpad to kickstart The State of Minnesota plans to reduce carbon emissions telecommunications, distributed control and resilient electrical services at least cost. But the mainstream adoption of lightweight-yet-ultrastrong 80 percent from 2005 levels by 2050 and for its largest intelligence, transparent pricing (especially if already, it’s clear that the long-claimed low limits carbon fiber to dramatically increase automotive fuel economy utility to source 31.5 percent of electricity from it reflects real-time production and delivery to renewable power supply were imaginary. costs), and integration with efficient energy use and enable affordable electrification with fewer batteries. renewables by 2020. Yet, Minnesota still spends $13 RMI In Brief combine to make demand response a bigger With only about six percent of the world’s billion annually to import natural gas, oil, and coal. So and more versatile resource than had long electricity now coming from non-hydro what might a clean energy future look like for Minnesota? 9 been thought. renewables, we’re a long way globally from the SUPEREFFICIENT HOUSING INITIATIVE RMI is working with the state to answer that question. average renewable fractions now achieved in In October 2013, RMI and Minnesota’s Department of New forms of demand response are continually five European countries and two U.S. states. But RMI’s Superefficient Housing Initiative (SHI) addressed Commerce (MN DoC) hosted a stakeholder session, emerging. For example, my electric car charger every year, these sources are getting a quarter- an important issue: the disproportionally high utility bills followed by an RMI-led report the MN DoC submitted adjusts its charge rate between zero and 7 kW Winter 2014 trillion dollars of private investment worldwide that burden low-income American families and the housing to the state’s Legislative Energy Commission in January. every second according to the frequency of the and adding over 80 GW, both promising trends. agencies and organizations that support them. Our 2013 report The next step—should the legislature opt to pursue it— grid. Such “fast regulation” is worth enough (if Global clean-energy investment fell 11 percent in Superefficient Affordable Housing: Solutions to Hurdles identified would be a Reinventing Fire-like energy future study. the grid paid me for it as FERC says it should) for nominal terms during 2013, but in 2012, despite barriers to making affordable housing more energy efficient me to make a few bucks’ profit every night by a similar 10 percent nominal investment drop, and proposed a series of solutions, while our collaboration charging my car. capacity additions rose 6 percent because costs with Denver Housing Authority and other partners sought ACCELERATING EFFICIENCY, SOLAR, fell even faster. Soon we’ll know whether the to make healthy, cost-effective low-income housing that saves ADDING IT ALL UP AND NET ZERO IN FORT COLLINS same recurred in 2013. at least 60 percent of energy costs a reality. We maintain an advisory role to many of these groups, even as we focus our - All this is a big slate of options. But what if it’s After all, half the world’s new generating RMI continues its work with e Lab and the City of Fort efforts on other important parts of the building sector. not enough? The next and costlier options would capacity added each year starting in 2008 has Collins, CO, to accelerate the city’s ambitious energy include bulk electricity storage (via compressed been renewable; solar cells are scaling faster than and climate goals and develop on-the-ground solutions air in underground caverns, pumped cellphones, probably surpassing windpower’s to reach those goals. Our analysis and report to the city, Stepping Up, found Fort Collins could reduce its energy- hydroelectric storage, hydrogen, or conventional 2013 additions; and Bloomberg New Energy ENERGY EFFICIENCY AT THE EXCHANGE or flow batteries). But the five European Finance expects solar power to compete with related carbon emissions 80 percent by 2030, two decades countries mentioned earlier have needed no new retail grid power in three-fourths of world The Exchange, the Department of Defense’s oldest and largest ahead of its existing 2050 greenhouse gas reduction storage or backup capacity. Indeed, emerging markets in another year or two. The first part retailer, operates retail and convenience stores, gas stations, target, with a net benefit totaling $261 million compared evidence seems consistent with my longstanding of the renewable power revolution—scaling restaurants, theaters, and other businesses on military to business as usual. Meanwhile, our ongoing work with hypothesis that a largely or wholly renewable production—is already well underway. Next installations in 50 states, 5 U.S. territories, and more than Fort Collins Utilities is developing a set of initiatives that power system may need less storage and backup comes the interesting part: ensuring that all the 30 countries. RMI partnered with the Exchange to improve can be piloted in FortZED, the city’s downtown net-zero- than utilities have already bought to manage the moving parts mesh properly. energy efficiency dramatically across its main stores and energy district, to drive increased energy efficiency in food courts, focusing on a subset of 24 malls that represent 35 intermittence of their big coal and nuclear plants. Amory B. Lovins is the cofounder, chief scientist, and chairman buildings and greater adoption of solar PV and other For example, many utility analyses find major emeritus of RMI. percent of the Exchange’s total domestic mall square footage distributed resources. windpower installations need only about five RMI IN BRIEF

by Marty Pickett by Clay Stranger JOHN DENVER ASPENGLOW FUND HELPS MOMENTUM BUILDS IN CHINA

LIGHT RMI’S WAY In November 2013, Rocky Mountain Institute attention. In northern China alone, air pollution joined partners Lawrence Berkeley National has cost the country an estimated 2.5 billion years From “Sunshine on My Shoulders” to “Rocky Karmen Dopslaff, former Windstar Foundation Laboratory, Energy Research Institute, and Energy of life expectancy to date. In response, China’s State Mountain High,” John Denver’s songs are loved by president and long-time friend of John and Foundation China in Beijing to participate in Council recently released a ten-point plan aimed millions. But another legacy remains: his passion Annie, led this transition, wanting to make the China’s Senior Policy Advisory Council Dialogue. at reducing emissions and improving regional for the environment and humanity. best decisions for the future and John’s legacy. The theme of this year’s summit was Reinventing air quality. The plan emphasizes improved air For example, the larger-than-life statue of John Fire: Contributing to China’s Energy Production quality monitoring, energy efficiency, accelerated In the late 1970s, John and his friend Tom Crum that fans long admired is now at the Colorado and Consumption Revolution. renewable deployment, and shrinking coal’s share started an environmental and humanitarian of total energy to less than 65 percent by 2017. The Music Hall of Fame at Red Rocks Amphitheater in Reinventing Fire’s top billing at the event was organization called the Windstar Foundation in plan also targets reducing PM2.5 emissions (a Denver, one of John’s favorite performance venues, evidence of the Chinese government’s National Old Snowmass near Aspen, Colorado. Its annual dangerous form of particulate matter air pollution) where it can delight far more visitors. Development and Reform Commission’s growing Choices for the Future Symposium was a summer 25 percent in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, 20 percent in embrace of this two-year project launched in highlight for years; experts gathered to inspire and Karmen and her team have also made some the Yangtze River Delta, and 15 percent in the June 2013. The effort is testing the maximum conspire for a better world. In 1982, Amory Lovins extraordinary grants from the Aspenglow Fund Pearl River Delta by 2017. cofounded his energy think-and-do tank, Rocky that will allow many organizations to make a possible share of energy efficiency and renewable rd Mountain Institute, ten minutes’ walk away. lasting impact in the world. Support ranges from energy that could support the Chinese economy In addition to State Council’s plan, the 3 Plenum of through 2050, while gauging its economic and the 18th Party Congress recently announced that the emissions implications. market will start to play an enhanced and decisive role in resource and energy planning. This explicit It is not too much to say that all these After being briefed on the project, distinguished new approach from the Chinese government lays

projects are embodied in the lyrics of Chinese policymakers had the opportunity to RMI in Brief a strong foundation for Reinventing Fire: China to discuss its goals, implications, and opportunities. John’s song “It’s About Time”: build on. One official reinforced her hope that Reinventing 11 It’s about time we begin it, to turn the world around. Fire: China would provide insights and inputs to China stands at an energy crossroads. It th It’s about time we start to make it, the dream we’ve the energy chapters of the upcoming 13 Five-Year paradoxically leads the world in CO2 emissions, always known. Plan. Addressing a room full of his peers, another oil imports, and coal consumption on one hand, Left to right: It’s about time we start to live it, the family of man. senior official commented, “It is an imperative for and energy-productivity gains and renewables Annie Denver, RMI’s Marty It’s about time, it’s about changes and it’s about time. us to reinvent fire, pursuing energy efficiency and investment, manufacturing, and capacity (hydro Winter 2014 Pickett, and the Aspenglow Fund’s Karmen Dopslaff clean energy to support blue skies and fresh air for and non-hydro) on the other. This giant, ancient, the future of China.” complex country is a nexus of enormous challenges When RMI grew beyond the walls of the Lovins and equally impressive solutions unfolding with helping less fortunate preschool children improve Those blue skies and fresh air are front-of-mind home/office, it leased additional space in the astounding speed. Decisions made and directions their cognitive and social skills, to environmental for many in China, including the nation’s leaders. Windstar Foundation’s 1950s farmhouse. When chosen over the next several years will have education, to providing support to families in Recent peak smog events have crippled northern those 957 mostly wild acres, owned by Windstar tremendous implications for the future of China John’s parents’ home state of Oklahoma affected Chinese cities, and the economic and social costs and the National Wildlife Federation (NWF), faced and the world. by natural disasters. China image courtesy of Shutterstock. Aspenglow image courtesy of Marty Pickett. of heavily polluted air have captured global sale for development, RMI purchased NWF’s Clay Stranger is project manager for Reinventing Fire: China at RMI. interest and, with the Windstar Foundation, created This same generosity resulted in the lead the Windstar Land Conservancy to hold and restore foundation grant for RMI’s initiative Reinventing the property, including a conservation easement Fire: China. The generous $1 million gift was that forever preserves 927 acres from development. presented to RMI in August 2013 soon after the effort launched in Beijing. John would be pleased: With John’s untimely death in 1997, the Windstar he was especially beloved in China, where he’d Foundation struggled. By 2012, Windstar dissolved often go to villages where nobody spoke English, and RMI made plans to move. The property was only to find the kids singing his songs in English. sold and proceeds were shared equally between Marty Pickett is a managing director at RMI. RMI and the John Denver Aspenglow Fund of the WEB EXTRA

Aspen Community Foundation. The fund is led For more information, by former directors of Windstar with long-time read “A Flameless Dragon: Charting A Clean Energy friends Tom Crum, Joe Henry, and Annie Denver. Path for China” in the summer 2013 issue. INNOVATION BEACON

by Todd Neff grant from the U.S. Department of Energy’s across the Front Range,” says Whitney Painter, co- Rooftop Solar Challenge program, Solar Friendly owner of Golden, Colo.-based Buglet Solar. Communities (SFC) was born. The aim was to cut RMI and COSEIA took these and other concerns to permitting, inspection, and interconnection costs local governments, Morris says. They spoke with Streamlining Solar 25 percent through a combination of policy changes everyone from building officials to sustainability and online tools. Solar Friendly Communities’ officers, from city council members to plan success in Colorado now has its creators looking to checkers. The team asked a simple question: How take the program national. can we make this easier from your perspective?

TO TACKLE PV’S “SOFT” COSTS, IT TAKES A “It really is a true partnership between industry and The Solar Friendly Communities team conducted local government, designed to make it faster, easier, workshops with municipalities and solar installers, SOLAR-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY and more affordable to go solar,” says Rebecca and Morris and RMI colleagues developed a 12- Cantwell, COSEIA’s senior program director. It was step program, each step representing a solar best

Between 2008 and 2012 the installed cost of a residential rooftop solar PV system in the U.S. declined by 37 percent. That sounds like good news, and it is, but more than 80 percent of that cost decline was due to module prices. Balance-of-system costs remain high, so solar can—and needs—to do better. That’s why the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative is targeting $1.50 per installed watt for residential systems by 2020, compared to nearly $5/W today.

For prices to fall another 70 percent by the decade’s end, the U.S. will need to learn from the examples of places such as Germany. In that cloudy, northern Innovation Beacon European country, residential solar PV systems cost a mere fraction (45 percent) of what they do stateside, 13 and have the SunShot target well in their sights, with costs already down to $2.25/W. It’s not the hardware, whose cost is relatively constant across countries. RMI and the Colorado Solar Energy Industries Association, with support from It’s the process. The total cost of any PV installation Winter 2014 includes not just the hardware, such as the panels the U.S. Department of Energy, launched Solar Friendly Communities with themselves, but also “soft” costs, such as installation labor; permitting, inspection, and interconnection a goal to cut permitting, inspection, and interconnection costs 25 percent. (PII); and customer acquisition.

Thanks to steep declines in module prices, such soft a grassroots approach, adds Jesse Morris, a Rocky practice, ranging from posting requirements on a costs now make up more than 60 percent of the total Mountain Institute senior associate who worked single government Web page to adopting standard price of a solar PV installation. It’s in those arenas where on the program’s technical design. permit forms to requiring just a single inspection. countries such as Germany shine, and where the U.S. Each step was assigned a point value. Participating First, the team talked with about two dozen solar can make real progress, according to a December 2013 governments could pick and choose, earning installers from across Colorado’s Front Range—a Rocky Mountain Institute report with Georgia Tech points to achieve bronze, silver, gold, or platinum north-south corridor along the foothills of the Research Institute (GTRI), Reducing Solar PV Soft Costs: status. The result, Cantwell says, is “a program Rocky Mountains that includes Colorado Springs, A Focus on Installation Labor. Installation labor costs in based on national best practices but rooted in Denver, Boulder, and Fort Collins—to understand Germany, for example, are just two-fifths what they are reality. It’s a menu of options and not mandates.” installers’ pain points. They heard about challenges in the U.S., and for PII costs, an astounding one-sixth. in finding specifics on a given municipality’s More than a dozen Colorado communities have Whether for a customer directly or via a third-party requirements for solar; the differing paperwork signed on so far, from Carbondale (pop. 6,500) solar developer, PII can be a big deal, and streamlining demanded by different towns, cities, and counties; to Denver (pop. 635,000). Aurora, the state’s the PII process can reduce aggravating hassle, speed multiple inspections; and vast differences in third-largest city, was already meeting many installation times, and save cost. And so in early 2012, permitting costs. criteria, according to Karen Hancock, Aurora’s the Colorado Solar Energy Industries Association environmental program supervisor. Missing was a “When you think about it, if you’re a solar installer (COSEIA) and Rocky Mountain Institute launched an Web page listing or linking to all the requirements working in the area, you’re holding business and effort to rein in soft costs. With help from a $491,000 for rooftop solar, she said. By January 2013,

Images courtesy Shutterstock. of contractor licenses in at least 12 jurisdictions INNOVATION BEACON

auroragov.org/solar was live and Aurora had earned silver status, complete with a city council visit and a plaque. The recognition, Cantwell says, is a bigger carrot than one might expect: “No one ever gives a code official a pat Insights on the back.” In Aurora’s case, the designation helps businesses and residents realize the city is a strong supporter of solar, Hancock says. “And yes, I love that plaque,” she adds. RECENT WHITE PAPERS AND REPORTS In addition, towns achieving the “medal” status often put up a sign as you enter town, similar to ADVANCING MILITARY HOW TO CALCULATE the road signage that often highlights Tree City HOW TO CALCULATE MICROGRIDS AND PRESENT AND PRESENT DEEP USA and Bicycle Friendly Community status. DEEP RETROFIT VALUE ADVANCING MILITARY MICROGRIDS A GUIDE FOR OWNER-OCCUPANTS CHALLENGES AND RECOMMENDATIONS BASED ON INSIGHTS FROM A RETROFIT VALUE TWO-DAY WORKSHOP TO SUPPORT NAVAL FACILITIES ENGINEERING For example, as you travel on Carbondale’s COMMAND SOUTHWEST’S MICROGRID EFFORTS. by RMI & NAVFAC Southwest

Michael Bendewald Hutch Hutchinson Scott Muldavin, [email protected] For questions about this report or the workshop, please contact: Roy Torber, [email protected] by RMI ERIC MAURER main thoroughfare, Route 133, you’ll see road ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE [email protected] | 303-245-1003 The U.S. Navy is leading the way

signs for Carbondale’s proud status as both a Image courtesy of Shutterstock in the technical and economic Deep retrofits—energy efficiency silver-level Solar Friendly Community and a testing of microgrid technology as it looks for new ways retrofits that reduce a building’s Bicycle Friendly Community greeting you as to bolster the energy security of Navy and Marine Corps consumption 50 percent or you enter town. bases—a broad Department of Defense agenda in which more—significantly cut energy bills. But they also yield Installers have been happy with the results, RMI’s played an important role for three decades. But as those many other benefits: improved employee productivity, too—no small thing, since third-party-owned bases, especially in the Southwest, begin to experiment with retention, and health; lower maintenance costs; and -installed arrangements accounted for 90 the technology, they face several major questions around increased occupancy; bolstered reputation; reduced percent of new installs in Colorado in 2012— microgrid design, evaluation, economics, and operation. This risk; and higher lease-up and sales rates. Accurately to the point that 16 Colorado solar companies report discusses the findings of a two-day workshop with RMI calculating and presenting these additional forms of Insights are offering $500 discounts to customers living and the Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southwest. value to decision makers is a critical tool for driving in SFC jurisdictions. Painter of Buglet Solar, Drawing on key stakeholders and experts from inside and greater investment in deep retrofits. This paper details 15 which is offering the discount, says there’s been outside the Navy, the report provides a set of recommended both the evidence for that additional value and practical a “marked difference” in working with SFC priority action areas for the Navy—or any customer closely information for how to calculate and present it. communities “It’s not just about lower costs, but looking at microgrid-enabled resilience or renewable energy. smoother process,” she says. Participating communities are also promoting Winter 2014 Not only are there more consistent PII the discount program and its installers, requirements among SFC jurisdictions, but which helps drive business and cut customer- REDUCING SOLAR PV BUILDING ENERGY there’s also more uniform knowledge of acquisition costs, according to Morris. “We’re a MODELING FOR solar-related best practices within a given small business—it is helpful to us,” Painter adds. SOFT COSTS: A FOCUS BUILDING ENERGY MODELING REDUCING SOLAR PV FOR OWNERS AND MANAGERS OWNERS AND SOFT COSTS ON INSTALLATION municipality, Painter says. A GUIDE TO SPECIFYING AND SECURING SERVICES Two years after it began, the program has A FOCUS ON INSTALLATION LABOR

LABOR ISSUED AUGUST 30, 2013 MANAGERS

PRINCIPAL AUTHORS: RMI | 1820 FOLSOM STREET | BOULDER, CO 80302 Ellen Franconi - [email protected] 303.245.1003 | WWW. RMI.ORG gained momentum with growth. With its Kendra Tupper - [email protected] COPYRIGHT ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE Blake Herrschaft - [email protected] “There’s been a shift from the counter all the Craig Schiller - [email protected] Robert Hutchinson - [email protected] AUTHORS: 1820 FOLSOM STREET | BOULDER, CO 80302 | RMI.ORG JESSE MORRIS (RMI) COPYRIGHT ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE. KOBEN CALHOUN (RMI) PUBLISHED DECEMBER 2013 JOSEPH GOODMAN (GTRI) DOWNLOAD AT: WWW.RMI.ORG/KNOWLEDGE-CENTER/ DANIEL SEIF (RMI) LIBRARY/2013-16_SIMPLEBOSRPT by RMI & Georgia Tech way back to the reviewer as far as having a foundation in place, COSEIA and the Colorado by RMI Research Institute global understanding,” she says. At the job Nonprofit Development Center have created Building energy modeling (BEM) is the practice of site, SFC-related best practices such as tight a new nonprofit home for Solar Friendly Distributed solar energy is a key enabler of an affordable, using computer-based simulation software to perform a inspection windows make a big difference for Communities, Go Solar Colorado, to raise funds resilient, secure, and low-carbon electricity future. Thanks detailed analysis of a building’s energy use and energy- installers, she adds. “In some jurisdictions not and take it national. to steep declines in module prices, over 60 percent of the cost using systems. BEM for new construction or retrofit working with the program, you’ll have to wait “We think it has tremendous potential and have of a residential rooftop solar PV system is now attributable building projects can reduce operational costs, reduce around for a whole day for an inspector to show heard interest in adopting the program from all to soft costs, including installation. In Germany, such costs project first costs, and improve occupant satisfaction. up for a rough inspection.” over the country,” says Cantwell. are a fraction of what they are in the U.S. Together, RMI and This guide helps building owners and managers to All told, a community participating in SFC can Todd Neff is a freelance writer who specializes in covering researchers from Georgia Tech Research Institute set out to define and procure modeling services in commercial energy and climate. shave “many hours to a couple of days” off an determine why. This paper discusses the results of time and new construction, renovation, or operation improvement installation, she says, which means that much motion studies conducted in both countries, as well as best projects. The topics and examples focus on issues most less time a homeowner has to deal with “people practices and other opportunities U.S. installers can implement relevant to owners and managers, including the value of WEB EXTRA crawling around on the roof.” to approach German rates of installation cost per watt. modeling, types of services, and solicitation. For more information on this topic visit: solarcommunities.org and These reports, and more, are available online at http://www.rmi.org.

gosolarcolorado.org Image courtesy Shutterstock. of WALK THE WALK

by Jesse Morris harder to imagine: design transportation systems I don’t have all of the answers to these challenges, and the places we live so people don’t need to use but I do know this: We-Cycle had a great first year personal vehicles to get from point A to point B in of operation with more than 10,000 rides logged— the first place. That’s where bike sharing comes in. not bad for a town with a permanent population below 7,000. Pedal Pusher But as I discovered with the skeptical Texan, words would usually only get me so far. Instead, My experience with We-Cycle has been both the best way to convince people was to physically enlightening and incredibly frustrating. It’s shown walk them through the user experience. Slide me just how difficult it is to get individuals to CAN ONE RMI STAFFER HELP HIS MOUNTAIN TOWN the bike-share key in, adjust the seat height, and change their transportation habits, and it has also start pedaling; use an app on your mobile phone made trying to get folks to adopt solar energy (one EMBRACE BIKE SHARING? to make sure there’s room at the next station, re- of my day-to-day responsibilities at RMI) look rack the bike, and your ride is complete. And did somewhat easier by comparison. I mention that it’s cheaper than driving your car, Standing behind an information table at my local gets you some exercise, and lets you take in your farmer’s market last summer, a second-home owner beautiful surroundings without a sheet of auto- No matter how good the economics from Texas who lives part time in Aspen, Colorado, glass between you and the view? asked me, “Is this part of that big, communist, United are, how many health benefits there Nations scheme to get me out of my car?” I remained undeterred. I’m an avid cyclist, and in addition to speaking with folks one on one, I I was there at the market to educate people as a board might be, or how compelling a future rode We-Cycle all over town, encouraged visiting member of We-Cycle, the world’s first rural bike- friends to hop on the bandwagon, and worked vision is, it’s really, really hard to get sharing program, located in Aspen, where I live. It hard to bring in new donors and generate buy- currently offers 13 conveniently located stations around in throughout the community. But convincing people out of their cars. No wonder town with a total of 100 bikes. As the Texan went on, one person at a time that We-Cycle is a good idea it was clear I had more educating to do: “I mean, those only got us so far. In addition, we needed the local transportation uses almost one-third Europeans and liberals down in Boulder can let these the Walk Walk government’s support for We-Cycle to succeed. bike-share things take up as much parking as they And in our efforts to court local government of all U.S. energy—mostly to move you want, but I don’t want them ruinin’ my town.” 17 support of the program, I was struck by another and me, mainly in two-ton cars and “Actually,” I responded, “there’s some serious difficult truth. evidence out there showing how increased bike traffic At RMI, we tend to support and encourage state- light trucks. boosts local U.S. economies from Chattanooga to or local-level policymaking, since passing policies Minneapolis. And I don’t know about this UN thing, Winter 2014 to support the Reinventing Fire vision is easier at but our program isn’t asking you to do anything. It’s Nonetheless, I plan on continuing to try and state and municipal levels than it is in Washington. just trying to give folks like yourself a new, low-cost, bring the Reinventing Fire message home and But as I discovered, going the local route is no ride hassle-free way to see our town.” It would also help to live it in my daily life, not just professionally in the park either. address Aspen’s dual challenges of traffic congestion at RMI, but personally. I’ve invested in Solar and transportation-related emissions that harm local Aspen, a progressive and wellfunded city Mosaic (an investing platform that allows folks air quality in the valley and contribute to climate government, was not interested in providing like me who don’t own their rooftop to invest in change worldwide. significant levels of funding to We-Cycle, even and make a return on green energy), helped my though cities like Aspen both face congestion issues local homeowners’ association get high-efficiency My challenge from the Texan highlighted a more and invest heavily in transportation infrastructure. natural gas boilers, taught high-school students fundamental and difficult reality I’d been discovering. It can be a tough sell to get local governments to about the economic case for energy efficiency, No matter how good the economics are, how many invest in new technologies and approaches with the and advised local towns on renewable energy health benefits there might be, or how compelling a potential to enable a more efficient and low-carbon procurement strategies. And I drive a bright future vision is, it’s really, really hard to get people out future—something that we at RMI ask individuals, orange Prius…when I’m not on my bicycle. of their cars. No wonder transportation uses almost businesses, and governments to consider almost one-third of all U.S. energy—mostly to move you and As for We-Cycle, it’s shuttered for the winter daily. My latest local government interaction has me, mainly in two-ton cars and light trucks. season while Aspenites hit the ski slopes. But it’ll highlighted how I, as a general communicator and be back this spring, and I’ll be there once again, There are two main ways to tackle transportation- RMI staffer, need to do some soul-searching and getting more people out of their cars and onto related fossil fuel use. The first gets most of the figure out how to better engage local government a bike. mainstream press’ attention: make cars and trucks more officials, especially if I expect Reinventing Fire to Jesse Morris is a senior associate for RMI. WEB EXTRA efficient and run them on different fuels, including succeed without the need for federal-level policy electricity. The second method, less-discussed but change (though we’ll happily accept supportive For more information on this topic visit: rmi.org/ potentially very powerful, is simpler and therefore national policies too). transportation Image copyright RMI/Romy Purshouse. RMI/Romy copyright Image FEATURE Distributed Defectors by Peter Bronski A DAY IS COMING WHEN SOLAR-PLUS-BATTERY SYSTEMS WILL BECOME CHEAPER THAN UTILITY- SOURCED ELECTRICITY, MAKING CUSTOMER GRID DEFECTION A POSSIBILITY. BUT WHEN AND WHERE COULD THIS HAPPEN, AND IS DEFECTION IN EVERYONE’S BEST INTEREST? A NEW RMI REPORT, THE ECONOMICS OF GRID DEFECTION, OFFERS SOME ANSWERS. DISTRIBUTED DEFECTORS W the most DG-congested circuits are now even are circuits DG-congested most the load. fact, In minimum 100 of daytime percent output exceeds their solar, that rooftop primarily (DG), generation have much distributed so already Maui and Oahu as such onislands grid’s circuits HECO’s of the many mapsshow system that state’spower of the to 95 percent population. Company (HECO) Electric The Hawaiian supplies (SEIA). Association Industries Energy Solar the PV capacity, to according installed cumulative new and for both states top ten the among ranked of Q3 2013, here. As be may already again Hawaii Amazingly, NREL’s day 20-percent-penetration 40-percent-renewablesstated goal. But to the that’d halfway changes. only system be major requiring without needs Hawaii’s electricity or provide more 20 of percent on solar—could emphasis an solar, with and wind especially renewables— Integration that Solar Study found Laboratory’sRenewable Energy June 2013 here?But from The National how there to get renewables. through percent 40 remaining the measures, efficiency energy through percent 30 by 2030— energy 70 clean percent to achieve plans roadmap associated An billion. of $5–7 cost annual at an of energy its percent 90 supplies that oil imported the off state island the simple: transition was goal state—their to the recommendations policy comprehensive and provided detailed RMI for which effort 2008—an in Initiative Energy Clean Hawaii the launched of Energy Department hen the state of Hawaii and the U.S. the and of Hawaii state the hen Hawaii backup system, this way we could size the battery battery way the we size could this system, backup agrid “We client. to install were going residential Systems Energy Solar Maui and Builders a Maui of case the in what happened exactly is The latter entirely.grid the from or defect electricity, for grid prices retail expensive paying continue and PVplans solar their abandon decision: adifficult with left are study its C DEFECTORS DISTRIBUTED THE OF RISE situations. similar in themselves find customers of not thousands, if hundreds, estimate observers He’s grid. it to the couldn’t not alone. Some connect ona5.9-kW$35,000 told to be he only PV system, who homeowner spent Oahu an highlighted 2013A December Bloomberg don’ttold many to wait—and to. want being are Even PV customers so, new solar some customer, respectively. per capacity solar new and PV capacity solar for newly installed 260, more than among nationwide, from 4 utilities 2013, top 10 top the and 2012 in in HECO ranked aren’t yet available for updated rankings though study. Also, interconnection time-consuming and a detailed without PV systems grid-connected install can more customers so interconnection, for simplified standard qualifying its relaxed HECOutility. year Late last a solar-friendly HECO remains signs are there friction, this Despite advocates. of solar some ire the raising or more, years two take could studies Such system. the safely, grid destabilizing without onthe solar out how more to accommodate to figure studies yet. conduct HECO feasibility says it must first and roofs on their can’t told they put solar being are customers Some average.national U.S. of most any the kWh—the triple per and state 36 cents averaging prices electricity residential (or abite out to escape of) at take part least in roofs, on their to put solar rushing customers for frustration now—isThe potential result—for performance. system compromising about howharder to add without more solar thinking to start operators need grid suggests study NREL the levels at which the or surpassing or more), percent 50–75 approaching astounding an hit load (some 15 peak circuits percent reaching ustomers impatient to waitfor impatient HECOto complete connect to the grid—at least not least grid—at to the connect story, for example,

Image courtesy of SolarCity. will happen—until now. happen—until will parity grid when and where analyzed specifically well. But more as no has one issue atlooked the have Laboratory Berkeley National Lawrence and of NREL likes the from studies and reports Challenges Disruptive report, Institute 2013 Electric Edison AJanuary day coming. is this have known Utilities comparable reliability. at electricity grid-sourced with parity economic or undercuts reaches systems for solar-plus-battery County, of New energy cost York, levelized the as to Westchester California, Angeles, Los from States, United the throughout geographies other in but ripe, are conditions where Hawaii in not just aprobability—and apossibility—even become increasingly will defection grid acustomer Such grid. the off house entire the took crew his balked.” Bews and So utility local the “but Bews explains, president John Solar Maui and Builders Maui fashion,” amore optimistic in bank projections late last year. late last projections Finance to Bloomberg New Energy according globally, additions for new capacity PV beat wind solar which in year 2013Indeed, first proved the “at rates we’ve before,” never seen says Guccione. Solar,” page 12). installations solar is The result work (see “Streamlining balance-of-systems solar of RMI’s because part in cards, the in clearly are drops cost further And watt. per to $3 $4.50 from percent, 33 fallen U.S. has PV system solar Q3 2013) of acompleted cost average the installed (Q3 years two past 2011 the to SEIA, in According to wrong. proving outlook is But antiquated won’t soon. that anytime happen words, parity other In practice. RMI’sin electricity associate Guccione,cold says fusion,” Leia senior out we figure time same the around right economic become storage will battery that been has industry energy the in mentality “For the along time, systems. energy buyers onrenewable energy large advises which Energy, Think CohnReznick and analysis, the supported that software simulation microgrid with HOMER Energy, spinoff with NREL an partnered Institute Mountain Rocky question, important and To afundamental such answer OPTIONAL BECOMES CONNECTION GRID , put the issue front and center. Other center. and Other front issue , put the

threshold.” acritical to reach nowplus starting storage—is two—solar these of combining “The inevitability Guccione adds: Jon Creyts. director managing on storage broadly,”of awakening says RMI year the been has “This vehicles. electric in growth via largely size, market expanding rapidly storage coupled prices, with battery in falls sharp continuing in is story of the The rest That’s step-change. real the macro-grid. the than cheaper become will systems solar-plus-storage later—when than rather sooner But beyond day coming—and early adopters, is the way,” that buck your battery says Seif. down. “You knock for alot get of bang can systems solar-plus-battery which spike, of that size for the to 100 kW. spikes has pays (heftily) The customer draws kW 50 normally of power,customer but Say a charges. demand steep with customers for commercial there also is motivation Such go toward storage.” you to have more reason scenarios—then metering net revised some in poor—as payback very is the you can’t [surplus power] or if sell grid to the back “If explains: Seif Dan principal electricity RMI equation. out of the utility the and grid the take to option aviable as meter the at storage behind looking customers with issue, the driving also are evolution over metering the of net fights Recent footprint. energy a low- or zero-carbon for adesire and concerns to climate independence, energy and power, for self-sufficiency to desire backup and resiliency in evident, to interests already is case economic an where islands from vary, early some motives adopters.among Their areality becoming already is That inevitability AND GEOGRAPHY MOTIVATION OF INFLUENCE THE systems. toward solar-plus-battery adopters early are driving energy carbon for low- demand climate concerns and and independence, energy and for self-sufficiency desire interests, power backup and resiliency prices, retail electricity expensive Regionally 21 Winter 2014 Distributed Defectors DISTRIBUTED DEFECTORS research shows that with current cost trends much trends cost current with shows that research “Our model,” at RMI. says Creyts business utility traditional onthe strain put immense will defection load and loss the there, is reliability the rates and electricity retail with competitive is of solar-plus-storage solutions price the “If to defect. for more customers even more attractive it making rise, prices retail debt, so pay utility off to customers leaves fewer This remaining grid. the from defect of customers numbers growing which in ascenario describes spiral death The utility spiral. death utility Why? The infamous thought.” That’s or consumers important. utilities than much faster viable become could systems showed these adds: that “The results CohnReznick, at analyst an over time.”market Richardson, John U.S. the in to move more mainstream more and Energy. plus going storage “PV systems are Think says Crowdis, Mark president of CohnReznick what we we knew,” thought confirmed study “This DEATH SPIRAL? UTILITY THE ENTER choose. they utility, if their with to completely ties sever customers allow hand, other onthe systems, Solar-plus-battery tariffs.) value-of-solar and policies net-metering revising of debates about heart at the is dependency (This at night. deficit day atotal and the during of energy produces asurplus solar customers of majority vast for the dependent, since grid remain fundamentally PV-onlymarket, systems amuch broader of the swath across even sooner parity grid reaching PV have alone solar estimates abig Though short, deal. industry in is, This CA. and NY in including scenarios, other many across segments, market residential some including 5 to 20 years, next the in here be it’ll and customers, commercial It’s for Hawaii in here future. already foreseeable the in coming is for solar-plus-storage systems parity grid that is conclusion The resounding projections. cost battery solar-plus- more aggressive and conservative both against levels, all PV penetration solar and prices, electricity retail markets, of utility range New York, Texas, a represent Kentucky) and that (Hawaii, California, locations five in scenarios service, utility plus storagegeneration with traditional competes solar distributed where and When Defection: Grid RMI’s 2014 February report, analyzed residential and commercial commercial and residential analyzed The Economics of Economics The energy resources in the future,” he says. he future,” the in resources energy deployment of distributed wider-scale to support needed be will that of rate design kind the and model business utility the in changes driving certainly are technologies energy “Distributed year. last just grid to its installations solar rooftop added 11,000 which and PV interconnection solar fast-tracked offers that utility California Southern (SDG&E), &Electric Diego Gas for San a progressive manager communications the is Eisenman Hanan not onutilities. lost are of this The implications made today.” investments utility for period recovery traditional the is which years, 30 next over point the that hit will country of the Guccione. “Once you invent something, you can’t Guccione. “Once you invent something, to happen,” going says is this Foroption. utilities, areal to become going is this “For customers, possibility. real avery it’s to defect, still interests everyone’s itBut may in not be while best valuable.” it’s extent, to some less still or past, it’s we the have way in used than different place. in Even it’s a if in used infrastructure this of CEO HOMER Energy. “We’veLilienthall, got really. It’s awhole,” as bad adds for Peter society anyone’s not in is spiral “The death interests, systems. solar-plus-storage to benefits offers grid the much as as grid to the benefits potential solar-plus-storage offers so shift, needs customers’ as supply demand and between balance abetter help maintain supply can base of the part as resources modular smaller, Having time. in at point one any it needs than capacity more has system too, overbuild the where with issues similar has system electricity The current streams.” value new accessing markets, in participate and your system size more optimally youwhere can connected, grid by staying cost operating annual You grid. off reduce your for being can just system, of the cost 10 offrom the percent to 50 ranges that a‘penalty’ you so up end system, taking the oversizing into and redundancy in to invest need RMI’s Guccione. you’re “When you grid, the off explains connected,” staying from value comes “You greatest don’t the because want to defect situations. many solution in energy optimal an yield doesn’t actually entirely grid the from Defecting ATBENEFIT COST LEAST STAYING MAX FOR WITH GRID THE

Image courtesy of SolarCity. represent an evolution of customer-sited options.” evolution an of customer-sited represent it does and future, near the in for customers more available becomes technology this as change says SDG&E’s “However, may this Eisenman. grid,” of the aspects connected as functioning are [in region] and our ‘cut-the-cord’as technologies deployed not being are “Currently, systems these happen.” it where does for afuture to prepare need utilities adopted, be and will technology it. This uninvent microgrids, integrating electric vehicles, and and vehicles, electric integrating microgrids, self-sustaining supporting reliability, enhancing including grid, the with integrated when benefits to deliver multiple potential have the systems “[We] SDG&E agree. like Utilities these believe irritant.” an more than developments anything as these seeing without models business-as-usual their running than rather ahuge as opportunity, at this looking be should “Utilities Crowdis agrees: CohnReznick’s models.” business to evolve looking their be it’s grid; to the a an atlooked as “But be should it’s that Creyts. a threat explains threatened,” feel definitely should “Utilities Maybe. threat? existential an as systems battery solar-plus- see utilities should notwithstanding, spiral death utility and risk defection The grid OPPORTUNITY YANG AND YIN THE AND RISK OF opportunity value to the grid. Utilities should should Utilities grid. to the . Storage is not a threat . Storage not a threat is Lab (e Lab Innovation Electricity collaborative its in projects for even decades, through years, model issues business- RMI’s utility onsuch working been system. the from developers) at cost least benefit most to derive the third-party customers, everyone (utilities, allow stakeholders—can by all markets electricity in participation widespread more equitable, and fairer, allows that scenario regulatory a reformed or under regulations current under grid—either the with transact microgrids such having And regulation. voltage frequency as and such control services ancillary and reductions, charge demand capacity, shaving, reserve peak too, including opportunities, other offer systems Solar-plus-battery storage mandate. energy recent California’s with keeping in grid even more to the a megawatt of power capacity, to add plans and to half kilowatts afew from size in ranging grid, on the of own its systems battery lithium-ion adozen more than installed already SDG&E has fact, In says sources,” Eisenman. generation renewable supply intermittent the from smoothing Rudy & Alice Ram &Alice Rudy ofthrough the Fred generous and support Alice Stanback and the RMI’s RMI. of director editorial the is Bronski Peter Time will tell if that comes to pass. comes that if tell will Time homes.” storage“is on grid-interactive battery my“The says Solar’s answer, mind,” in Maui Bews, increases.” value greatly that fails, big grid the even when services vital their get customers the lets that architecture microgrid islandable with adds:value.” “And comes Lovins Amory this if really what customers grid—that’s greater onto the systems solar-plus-storage distributed integrating by at as lower and cost—such energy less with way there’s If to do that a better businesses. their want to run customers commercial devices; electronic power for their electric reliable having on, lights their value having “Consumers hot showers cold beers,” and concludes Guccione. se per “At about how we we don’t talk RMI want energy provide. can systems value leverage solar-plus-battery the better would that models business onalternative report aforthcoming more, and including commissions, regulatory state and work utilities with direct models, through business solar on innovative Edge Distribution the for Economics of Grid Defection work was possible, in part, part, in possible, was work Defection Grid of Economics ; rather, we want the things energy provides: energy ; rather, things we wantthe - Lab), as such papers in sey Foundation. , via DOE-supported work DOE-supported , via New Business Models Models Business New electricity this topic visit: rmi.org/ For more information on WEB EXTRA 23 Winter 2014 Distributed Defectors FEATURE BMW’s Big Bet on Carbon Fiber by Wendee Nicole

The i3 is the result of that effort. “We call [the i3] the production of fabrics,” says Sattig. At Moses WITH THE NEW i3, THE WORLD MEETS THE the battery electric vehicle 2.0 because it’s not a Lake, ultra-thin filaments go through a series of conversion anymore; it’s 100 percent designed for heating and cooling ovens, where they gradually FIRST COMPOSITE-INTENSIVE MAINSTREAM EV electromobility,” says Walter, noting that many turn into a molecular chain link of carbon crystals, other recently released EVs, such as the popular weighing half what they did at the start. These Nissan LEAF, were built on the guts of a gas- filaments are sprayed with epoxy and shipped powered counterpart; not so for the i3, which to Germany where they get woven into flexible n the streets of Barcelona, green car expert Doing that ultimately led BMW to establish a O was designed and built from the ground up with mats. Eventually, robots mold these fabrics into Jim Motavalli finally got to take the new BMW i3 carbon-fiber production facility in Moses Lake, electric drive in mind. “With [our other cars] it’s an the pieces needed for the i3—130 in all, compared for a ride. Author of High Voltage: The Fast Track to Washington, where the automaker could use 100 evolution direction, whereas with the i brand we to around 400 for a steel-bodied car. Having a Plug In the Auto Industry, Motavalli was attending percent renewable, climate-friendly hydropower go into the revolutionary direction,” he says. carbon-fiber passenger cell also eliminates the the annual EVS-27 International Electric Vehicle for one-fifth the European price. (The i3 completes need for many bolts and screws, further reducing Symposium & Exhibition, where enthusiasts test its production at two facilities in Germany— FROM CONCEPT TO REALITY the car’s weight. While bolts are needed elsewhere drove the highly anticipated electric car. The i3 Landshut and Leipzig.) in the vehicle’s body, “the whole car underwent a didn’t disappoint. “It’s very quick off the line, “We chose carbon fiber because for us it’s the only specific weight diet,” says Sattig. “We looked at very quiet, very good handling,” says Motavalli. THE PATH TO THE COMPOSITE- lightweight material you can use in the automotive every screw, every bolt, every piece.” As you’d expect from the engineers at the ‘fun to INTENSIVE CAR industry without any concessions to safety,” says drive’ European automaker, he continues, the i3 is Manuel Sattig, BMW i series Project Manager. That BMW calls this carbon-fiber skeleton the Life The road to Moses Lake began earlier, with undoubtedly “a performance car.” said, it takes the right set of benefits—strength module. Meanwhile, an aluminum Drive BMW’s strong climate-motivated commitment to and safety gains, weight savings and efficiency module—the electric powertrain, plus crash- BMW has completely reinvented the way to sustainability, prodded by increasingly stringent improvements—for pricey carbon fiber to pay critical and other components—is built in parallel, manufacture a car with the i3, crafting the European and American fleet fuel economy off. And so traditionally, smaller amounts of the and the two halves of the i3 come together world’s first production car—not just electric regulations. “As an overall fleet of models material have been incorporated into parts on at the end in Leipzig. This parallel process vehicle (EV)—with an all-carbon-fiber passenger worldwide, we want to reduce CO2 emissions low-volume premium cars, like the Lamborghini, enables the speedy production BMW needs for compartment. Six times stronger than commonly dramatically,” says Oliver Walter, Head of BMW Porsche Spyder, and Chevrolet Corvette. the quasi-mainstream i3. In fact, BMW cut its used steel and 30 percent lighter than increasingly i3 Products and Launch Management Worldwide. self-reported production times on the i3 in half popular aluminum, carbon fiber has historically “[That] will not be possible with only V8 and The i3, on the other hand, was carbon fiber for the compared to its non-carbon-fiber, gas-powered been too expensive for bulk use, yet it holds great 6-cylinder engines.” masses. “When looking at carbon fiber, we had to 3 series. promise for making gasoline-powered autos take two separate actions: bring down the cost of There was also the issue of growing consumer radically more fuel efficient and opening the door the material and bring down the production cycle That said, BMW has been tight-lipped about its demand for EVs, which BMW watched carefully for their cost-effective electrification, getting cars times for the material,” Sattig explains. Harkening actual annual production volume the i3 is initially before boldly merging into the market with the i3. off oil completely. to the days when Ford manufactured its own steel ramping up to. Industry media have estimated “We don’t want to wait until everybody bypasses for the Model T, BMW decided to produce carbon 30,000 units per year, with the option of rapid But delivering on carbon fiber’s sustainability us,” Walter explains. “We want to be the driving fiber itself—unusual in today’s auto industry—in expansion if demand warrants. That’s a common promise—crucial to delivering on the BMW force behind it.” After BMW tested e-mobility a joint venture with SGL Carbon SE. mid-volume level, but short of the 50,000-or- i series’ promise of carbon-emissions-free with two electric vehicles built on traditional car more units necessary to truly reach high-volume transportation—required making not just the platforms—the MiniE, followed by the ActiveE— “We set up a production chain going from production. The world’s best-selling models are material work, but also the energy and financials. the German automaker was ready for full-scale the sourcing of the precursor material to the made at the biggest factories in hundreds of

production of an electric car. AG. BMW copyright images production of the carbon fiber itself and then thousands per year. BMW’S BIG BET ON CARBON FIBER sporty. to drive.” It alot was of RMI’s fun Amory very and driver. fast very “It European feels typical the like fast, driving and corners drive, taking test says of his it Motavalli around,” “I got to throw vehicles. for carbon-fiber-intensive curve learning the ascend automotive as designers gains further even expect fiber. We likely carbon can up around ground auto the an from power of designing the costs). battery That’s high matter, currently given asmaller with …all range faster mph seconds several 0to 60 does that engine more powerful significantly a boasts i3 the of comparison, point relevant most LEAF, Nissan i3’s to the Compared numbers. weight-loss-induced peppy some in resulting says Sattig, frame, vehicle agas-powered from converted cars electric than less to 1,200 pounds 600 weighs car i3’s the skeleton, of the carbon-fiber Because specs. performance the notable are really folded down. are But seats what’s rear the space if cargo plus liters, extra 200 space of around trunk ausable and seats four has i3 Superficially, the new vehicle. exciting an work in off paid has says “It’s Sattig. work.” alotof hard been That hard acompletely concept, new drivetrain,” production anew whole idea of acompletely new architecture, car, but the new to the fiber carbon “Not is only PROOF IN THE PERFORMANCE battery pack (no small (no pack small battery plus a one-third-longer aone-third-longer and eager to see how eager it to see and evolves next.” they’ve now I’m done it, cars. thrilled electric fiber to carbon- to leapfrog needed qualities strategic and engineering the to combine likely most I feltworldwide BMW automakers of one was two of BMW’sheart brand,” says. he “Two ago, decades at the sportiness the no“It way in compromises concurs. Munich, in drive test arecent after Lovins, transportation practice. practice. transportation Institute’s Mountain for Rocky amanager Rucks, automotive for the be industry,”can says Greg technology fiber carbon to how promising testifies that vehicles, way its it the designs in change atransformative such a huge company makes such “If needs. fiber of approvalstamp carbon may the be just technology the in investment BMW’s and automotive the industry place in fiber’s of carbon There’s bigger question the also i3’s the from benefit lessons. will that models fueled ofto some more its traditional i8 forthcoming the from automaker’s the future, in there’s fiber here. But sure more be carbon you can from i3 the go with to say BMW where will soon 2014 U.S.its Asia—it’s East the and too in release to mention everyone’s in fresh minds—not still i3 November of the 2013 the With release European THE ROAD AHEAD

images copyright BMW AG. what they’ve done,” “It’s says Rucks. agratifying for “We admiration have tremendous exhilarating. feel can one driving vehicle, a revolutionary such BMW behind like brand apremier With renewable energy. rooftop with EV their who want to charge for customers PV installation solar a residential for SolarCity with a10 discount offers and percent stations, networknationwide of public charging to Chargepoint’s up for access signed owners new i3 space). gets parking own BMW likewise their without (for residents garage owners urban EV-friendly with (for homeowners) or connecting level charger 2in-home of aBosch installation i3’s the range. The facilitates than automaker trips for longer loaners gas-powered BMWwheel. offers the they’re when not behind hands of drivers’ palm the in data app such puts Remote smartphone i An features. other among stations, charging help energy, navigate to public can and conserve to Pro Eco as such modes into shift range, can driving estimates technology vehicle Connected Infrastructure Manager. Healey,says Robert America’s BMW North EV of transportation,” means achievable an is electric driving that to understand customers the get can we adoption to EV so barriers down those break to is focus “Our Program. Mobility 360 Electric its what i3, it BMW calls designed the with tandem In services. of mobility suite aholistic get also but they car, yes, new performance ashiny get customers BMW iseries cars. selling and making more than For BMW,anxiety. about range is as such this concerns common alleviating possible, while as seamless and comfortable as is i3 the like vehicles electric autosgas-powered to carbon-fiber-based from transition customers’ that sure making further BMW is and great, are benefits Those ratings.” safety better and acceleration, efficiency, quicker fuel greater itself: material the of unaware are most even if construction fiber of carbon however, benefits “They will, the notice made of,” is vehicle says Rucks. their what material won’t today’sas consumers most vehicles, care functional and safe “As as are vehicles the long as of EVs,not just autos. but of carbon-fiber-intensive adoption, and demand of customer issue the still however. cars, in widespread There’s truly become to technology for the fiber carbon in investing BMW as such automaker an more than take It will CUSTOMERS TO CATERING step closer to reality. closer step i3, autos. it’s the With one carbon-fiber-intensive high-volume-production truly includes future industry.” That transportation of the future the for we envision of vehicle types leap towards the Scientific American andScientific Nature. in appeared has work whose writer afreelance is Nicole Wendee free transportation system by 2050. by system transportation free carbon-emissions- and oil- an of achieving heart at the vehicles ultralight revolutionary bridge the to afull-fledged enable to aims ACL the production, commercial and scale pilot- between chasm the across rope first the world. the in By securing anywhere industry any in composites fiber carbon with not yet achieved year,per atarget units volume of 50,000 atproduction least The ACL’s high-speed achieve to is goal on. signed already are companies chain 2018.model year U.S.major Eight supply- by vehicles mainstream on parts composite fiber carbon of lightweight implementation and testing, production, design, advance the to &Associates Munro partner industry (ACL)Launchpad and by RMI created was Commercialization Autocomposites The LAUNCHPAD COMMERCIALIZIATION AUTOCOMPOSITES transportation this topic visit: rmi.org/ For more information on WEB EXTRA 27 Winter 2014 BMW’s Big Bet on Carbon Fiber FEATURE Taking a Stand RMI UNVEILS BOLD GOALS TO DRIVE IMPACT, 01 02 COMMITS TO SPEED, SCALE, SOURCE U.S. ELECTRICITY RENEWABLY MAKE U.S. BUILDINGS SUPEREFFICIENT The Impact The Impact

AND ACCOUNTABILITY By 2025, we’ll cut U.S. electricity use by 18 percent and nearly By 2025, we’ll make one billion square feet of commercial double renewables’ share of generation from 16 to 30 percent building space 35 percent more efficient, influence the deep compared to business as usual. energy retrofit (>50 percent efficiency improvement) of Transforming global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, billions more, and grow the buildings efficiency market from and secure energy future is an ambitious, vital undertaking—and How We’ll Do It less than $10 billion per year to more than $25 billion. our sole focus. It demands all our determination and expertise. We will accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewables How We’ll Do It To succeed, we must rapidly scale our impact—to “reinvent by fostering rapid evolution of the electricity system pushed fire”—making the shift from fossil fuels to energy efficiency by disruptive innovation. With regulators, utilities, and We’ll target four of the largest, most influential segments and renewables by 2050, if not sooner. We must move decisively. others we’ll align incentives and create a fair electricity of the buildings market—major corporations, the General That’s why we’ve established bold goals to achieve by 2025, with market to support a distributed energy future. Meanwhile, Services Administration, the Department of Defense, and near-term milestones and actions to chart our progress and hold we’ll implement strategies and business models for customer- activist cities—for deep and portfolio-wide retrofits. And ourselves accountable. We welcome you on the journey with sited technologies such as rooftop solar, so they cost less than we’ll stimulate private capital investment in deep energy us. This is, in part, how we’ll do it … over the next 1–2 years incumbent central power supply. retrofits by getting owners and investors to consider more and beyond. than energy cost savings alone and integrate the full set of What’s Next deep retrofit values (DRV) into their decision making. • Develop rate structures that reflect the benefits and costs What’s Next of distributed energy resources and demonstrate them with at least one utility or regulatory commission • Building on our success taking the United States’ biggest • Launch six Electricity Innovation Lab (e-Lab) projects, real estate manager, the General Services Administration, including collaborations with specific utilities and from 18 to 39 percent average retrofit energy efficiency communities, to highlight the feasibility of high improvement, bring the GSA further toward 50 percent percentages of community-based renewables efficiency gains on future retrofits • • Create a solar development excellence center to lower Drive change in the owner-occupant sector, which the soft costs that now make up ~60 percent of solar PV accounts for 50 percent of all commercial buildings, installation costs including by training at least 10 top corporations how to incorporate DRV into real estate investment decision • Make low-cost solar financing a reality for far more making and making DRV a required component of two customers by standardizing commercial PV credit screens, real estate finance certification programs incorporating PV into real estate finance, and opening up • finance to underserved markets Get 20 or more leading real estate companies and 10 or more leading practitioners to adopt portfolio-wide energy • Speed innovation and pioneer new approaches to strategies and perform deep energy retrofits on individual optimized solar PV and other distributed energy buildings applications, with at least 10,000 on- and off-grid • Team with a major city (potentially Chicago) to drive installations each via collaborators breadth and depth of retrofits on major buildings, which represent half of total urban building energy use images courtesy Shutterstock. of TAKING A STAND

GERMINATING SEEDS OF CHANGE Getting Large Companies to Procure Renewable Energy Our targeted impacts in electricity, buildings, communities, and China form the core of RMI’s The commercial and industrial (C&I) sectors are commitments, but we don’t stop there. To truly responsible for about half of all primary energy reinvent fire, we also must address transportation, use. We plan to get large C&I companies— industry, and product efficiency. That’s where including at least five Fortune 500 companies—to seeds come in—a set of early-stage projects with procure renewable energy by creating a renewables high potential for impact. They are exploratory attainment resource center and scalable renewable 03 04 in nature, akin to venture capital investing. We supply solutions. expect some to fail, but we also anticipate some TRANSFORM COMMUNITIES’ REINVENT FIRE IN CHINA AND will be incredibly successful. Increasing Product Efficiency ENERGY SYSTEMS BEYOND The products that plug into our walls consume Transforming Transportation: more than 40 percent of the electricity consumed The Impact The Impact Vehicle Design and Use in U.S. buildings. We plan to cut the consumption By 2025, we will directly support communities By 2025, we’ll ensure that a Reinventing Fire-like To get the world off fossil fuels we must tackle oil, of those energy-consuming products by one-third representing 10 million people to plan and execute vision is adopted in countries totaling at least half and for that, we need to transform transportation. in U.S. homes and offices, demonstrating the value towards a clean, prosperous, and secure energy the global population, with a goal of a 70 percent To win the oil endgame, we plan to focus on the proposition to retailers and providing consumers future; enable communities representing 40 carbon emissions reduction over 2050 business global auto industry and bring electrified and with desirable efficient products. million more people to do the same with RMI- as usual, starting with China, the world’s largest lightweight automobiles to a large production scale developed tools and approaches; and see 700 carbon emitter. in both the U.S. and China (see Autocomposites Factor Ten Engineering university campuses substantially reduce their Commercialization Launchpad, page 27). By 2025, Our Factor Ten Engineering (10xE) initiative carbon footprint. How We’ll Do It we want to see one million cars with substantial will help engineers, architects, and their clients carbon fiber parts in the U.S., and at least five We have already embarked on work with the apply RMI’s whole-system design principles to How We’ll Do It million light, electrified mass-market city cars Chinese central government and influential achieve radical energy and resource efficiency in A Stand Taking in China. We’ll improve neighborhoods, accelerate economic partners—Energy Research Institute, China Energy manufacturing processes, buildings, and vehicles, development, reduce traffic, improve building Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, often at lower cost. We also intend to build this 31 Making Islands Sustainable stock, and create a more resilient energy supply in and Energy Foundation’s China Sustainable game changer into design pedagogy. communities by applying Reinventing Fire’s cross- Energy Group—to deliver a compelling alternative In conjunction with the Carbon War Room, we sector approach. And we will get over 100 large development path for the country. plan to work with ten island nations to help them DRIVING IMPACT universities to reduce their carbon emissions by 50

build resilient and sustainable energy systems, Winter 2014 These ambitious goals are designed to tackle percent, inspire 600 others to 25 percent reductions, What’s Next including taking one Caribbean island to 100 the world’s toughest energy challenges. From and get 10 million students, faculty, and staff to cut • percent renewable energy within a decade. These Publish a technical report with the Chinese the U.S. to China to the rest of the world, we’ll their carbon footprint by at least 10 percent. islands will serve as templates of success impelling National Development and Reform drastically cut carbon emissions to tackle climate other islands to commit to transformation and Commission characterizing the maximum change, unlock enormous economic opportunity, What’s Next engaging larger countries to act. potential for energy efficiency and renewables and make our energy systems clean, prosperous, • Obtain 60-percent-or-better carbon emission to meet economic, environmental, and energy and secure. This is our promise to ourselves, to reduction commitments from four communities security needs you, and to the world. And as RMI’s CEO Jules representing a total of at least one million • Make policy recommendations that identify the Kortenhorst explains in his introductory letter to people, and take active steps along an key adjustments that enable China to capture this issue (page 4), “We at RMI stand behind our implementation pathway the full potential of energy efficiency and commitment to deliver impact.” • Develop a widely available package of tools and renewable energy and which inform China’s processes to make our approach to community 13th Five-Year Plan energy system transformation replicable • Begin implementation of the Reinventing Fire and scalable plan alongside Chinese partners, pursuing key • Partner with at least six university “leaders” to opportunities in the transportation, buildings, provide guidance, tools, processes, and know- and industrial sectors how to get 100 other universities to commit to • Catalyze an automotive leapfrog, in which reduce their carbon emissions 50 percent China’s rapidly growing auto sector foregoes oil • Get Arizona State University, the nation’s largest and incremental fuel economy improvements in WEB EXTRA university, to adopt and act upon an action plan favor of radical progress to electric vehicles For more information on this to achieve its climate neutrality target topic visit: rmi.org China and seed images courtesy of Shutterstock. Community image courtesy of Visit Fort Collins by Ryan Burke. by Laurie Guevara-Stone fraction of GDP as today’s earnings from financial EXPENSIVE ELECTRICITY services, the nation’s second-biggest sector. The All of that imported fossil fuel doesn’t come biggest, now about 60 percent of GDP and half the cheaply. Due to the islands’ cherished remoteness, jobs, is tourism. Back in 2002, Lovins estimated fuel must be imported long distances, so most The High- that roughly a fourth of total tourist revenue was residents pay extremely high energy costs. While needed just to provide the nation’s electricity. the cost of electricity in the continental United Oh, and did we mention that BEC lost money on States averages $0.12 per kWh, in Hawaii it every kWh it sold? It could probably have cut those averages over $0.36, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands losses by giving away efficient showerheads and it’s an astronomical $0.48–0.50. Renewables light bulbs. Renewables easily compete with those high prices. “Islands are challenged by the need to depend A National Renewable Energy Laboratory study almost solely on costly fossil fuel imports to found the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for provide their energy supply,” says RMI principal windpower in the USVI would be in the range of Pathway Karen Crofton. “Thus, islands are truly searching just $0.07 to $0.30 per kWh. And recent installed for a comprehensive solution that provides both projects on Aruba and Jamaica are getting a clean and secure energy future.” For example, windpower at an LCOE of $0.10–0.20 per kWh. CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ARE about 98 percent of St. Lucia’s energy is imported oil, so in 2010, the government crafted a National Those prices are one reason the Caribbean island Energy Policy to “create an enabling environment, of Anguilla has decided to switch to renewables. In ON THE ROAD TO A CLEAN both regulatory and institutional, for the 2012, electricity prices on the island, which relies introduction of indigenous renewable energy to completely on diesel, spiked to $0.63 per kilowatt- ENERGY FUTURE the national energy mix, thus achieving greater hour. With many families unable to pay their energy security and independence.” monthly bills, the Anguilla Electricity Company cut power to so many homes that the island Islands in the U.S. Virgin Islands are following When it comes to the Caribbean islands, monikers like “tropical paradise” seemed plunged into darkness. Now, an Anguilla Pathway The High-Renewables St. Lucia’s lead. In 2010, the USVI Water and get thrown around a lot, and for good measure—warm water and air, sandy Renewable Energy Office is spearheading a 10-year Power Authority burned 2.6 million barrels of beaches, spectacular snorkeling and scuba diving, fresh seafood, a relaxed plan to make Anguilla energy-independent “built oil to generate electricity. The USVI, almost 100 33 vibe. Full-time residents, though, know another reality: extremely costly upon a solid and ever growing foundation of our percent reliant on imported oil for electricity and retail electricity, dependence on fossil fuel imports, and vulnerability to own free, abundant, clean, and renewable energy transportation, now has a target to reduce its fossil climate change and the sea-level rise and increasingly severe tropical storms resources—the wind and the sun,” according fuel dependence 60 percent from business-as-usual associated with it. It’s these challenges—coupled with the Caribbean’s to the island territory’s official energy policy forecasts by 2025, largely via energy efficiency and Winter 2014 abundant renewable resources, especially solar and wind—that make the

Images courtesy Shutterstock. of through 2020. renewable energy. region ripe for leading the way toward a clean energy future.

DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS

Islands’ smallness often means limited local fuel resources and, as a result, dependence on fuel imports. Since they may have no pipeline access for gas, and are too small to burn coal cost effectively, most islands burn costly liquid fuels, such as diesel or fuel oil. Those expensive imports take an economic toll. Oil imports cost up to 12 percent of GDP in Antigua and Barbuda, 13 percent in Grenada, and 14 percent in the Bahamas (the U.S. is currently at 1.3 percent). At the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Conference, Barbados Prime Minister Freundel Stuart emphasized the negative effects these high prices have for island economies. “At the regional level we realize that high oil prices have severely affected Caribbean competitiveness, with a negative fiscal and macro-economic impact on our fragile economies.”

In 2002, RMI’s Amory Lovins addressed the Bahamas’ Prime Minister and Cabinet at the pioneering renewably-powered campus of The Island School in impoverished South Eleuthera. At that time, the deeply indebted, government- owned Bahamas Electricity Corporation was sending 11 percent of GDP, or about a half-billion dollars a year, abroad for fuel and capital. That’s the same energy future.energy ripe for leading way the toward aclean region the wind—make and solar especially Caribbean’s abundant renewable resources, to climate change—coupled the with on fossil and vulnerability fuel imports, dependence retail electricity, costly Extremely PATHWAYTHE HIGH-RENEWABLES opportunities for wind resources class 4 and 4and class resources for wind opportunities St. (USVI), Thomas for example, abundant found site on wind energy. of study apotential NREL An of renewable sources of reliable no lack is there winds, trade famous to the beaches islands’ to its draws tourists that sunshine abundant From the renewables. up for in makes it more than fuels fossil affordable local, in lacks Caribbean What the RENEWABLES ABUNDANT LOCAL EMBRACING worldworld to the amessage to do is something.” [in the renewable investment energy] in person per highest the way by the making leading so world change… the in due to climate country any of most “We the stated, to lose government, stand Foua Toloa,Conference, head of Tokelau’s then megawatt one of PV. with Climate Durban At the gone 100 renewable has percent of New Zealand, of acolony Tokelau Pacific, island South the in small why the exactly is Which projects. scalable repeatable, through possible is transformation worldenergy to the demonstrate that can they collectively change, onclimate impact big direct aren’t to have enough a large islands most While storms. tropical severe increasingly groundwater, into and infiltration levels, saltwater sea rising including change, climate via existence very their but threatening economies their crippling not only is depend islands the on which fuels fossil the to injury, burning insult Adding VULNERABILITY RESILIENCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE competitive bids for project execution. However, execution. bids for project competitive and financing sufficient obtaining hinder often can onislands sizes project “The comparatively small fuels. fossil onimported dependence to reduce their Islands Pacific the and Dominica with working EDIN currently is goals, energy their USVI with the helping Besides measures. efficiency deploy energy also and resources renewable energy their to into tap them allow that solutions policy and technology, financing, the find them by helping islands EDIN supports States. United the and Newof Iceland, Zealand, apartnership EDIN, is in. by NREL, comes founded (EDIN) Nations Development Island in Energy for partnership international the where is This adaptable?” and affordable accessible, is product that atangible into potential renewable energy convert this resources, limited and problems structural inherent with states developing how island is do we, thus small as issue “The fundamental Stuart. Freundel Minister Prime Barbados said countries,” our in resides efficiency energy and for renewable energy potential energy, conventional limitless in deficient energy developing states] island SIDS [small are many “Although another. quite is advantage of them but taking thing, one is resources the Having over. times 22 needs electricity 2050 projected to cover their potential renewable energy have enough Caribbean the and America Latin showed Development that Bank Inter-American by the commissioned report quality. Arecent scale of utility- for wind standard typical above, the

Image courtesy of Shutterstock. British Virgin Islands, St. Lucia, and Grenada. Grenada. St. Lucia, and Islands, Virgin British the include Ten the Challenge in Island islands have overand destiny.” more control our Other onrenewable energy degree to rely to agreater us for sense security and economic great it“So makes Eman. Mike Minister Prime to Aruba according oil,” of fuel price the in to rapid changes vulnerable “As particularly is progress. Aruba in is island, an farm wind a second and needs, Aruba’s electricity of 20 percent rated at megawatts 30 meets farm wind renewables by a10-turbine 2020. Currently to 100 percent Aruba’s to transition is summit. goal 2014 February the pre-dating Challenge, Island Aruba institutions. aid international corporate, nonprofit, government, and from 100 attendees more than brought together onto renewable energy.fuels The CCW workshop fossil off to transition islands Caribbean with War Carbon Room to work the with partnering now is RMI which in effort an Challenge, Island Ten of the phase next the off Gorda. CCW kicked of Virgin coast the off islands Moskito and Wealth (CCW),Climate event held an onNecker at Creating came BVI. The announcement the in Island Necker to power his technologies other storage, solar, wind, and combining microgrid a would NRG build Energy that announced Branson Richard Sir early February,In billionaire ROOM PARTNERING WAR WITH CARBON powerleverage of scale,”RMI’s the notes Crofton. still can islands onsolutions by collaborating was the first island to join Branson’s to join island Ten first the was

… and the world. the … and Caribbean for the win emissions—a carbon power, reliable lower with and their guests economy, local the in and provide residents money keep fuels, onimported reliance their to renewable energy, reduce islands switching event. By the during to come,” Branson wrote for generations prosperity and Caribbean’s beauty the we have of preserving assurance only the is region to the “[Bringing] renewable energy sound. environmentally and affordable, resilient, is system energy whose Caribbean a carbon-free Room’s to attain others and Ten Challenge Island War of Carbon efforts the to support continue will for part, its RMI, Caribbean. the in sector energy the on transforming focused activity project-based to move with forward committed ministers island of nine atotal CCW summit, of the wake the In Laurie Guevara-Stone is a writer/editor for RMI. charitable trust, and your support will fuel fuel will support your and trust, charitable Name RMI i RMI Name Let your vision for a clean, prosperous, prosperous, aclean, for vision your Let CONTACT US AT 303-567-8716 OR OR CONTACT AT US 303-567-8716 RMI’S LEGACYRMI’S SOCIETY and secure energy future live on. live future energy secure and PLEASE CONSIDER JOINING RMI’s perpetuity. work in [email protected] n your will with a bequest or a abequest with will n your

topic visit: rmi.org For more information on this WEB EXTRA 35 Winter 2014 The High-Renewables Pathway by James Newcomb and Robert “Hutch” Hutchinson 3. Climate is not necessarily a barrier: Habitat new commercial buildings by 2030. In addition, for Humanity opened a new net-zero home in Governor Jerry Brown’s new executive order Minneapolis’s cold climate in December 2013. The requires state agencies to take measures towards building’s superinsulated building shell, triple- achieving net-zero energy for 50 percent of the It Takes a glazed windows, and R-100 ceiling insulation total floorspace of existing state buildings by 2025. minimize energy use, while solar thermal and Another milestone was the Living Building photovoltaic systems will provide more energy Challenge’s 2012 introduction of a rigorous net- than the home consumes. Commercial housing zero energy building certification standard. developers like Shea Homes and De Young Village Properties have recently announced new offerings CALCULATING NET ZERO AND in multiple climate zones to test buyers’ interest. LEVERAGING THE GRID 4. Might makes right: Though most completed MOVING BEYOND NET-ZERO net-zero buildings are small (as are most new No key U.S. net-zero buildings could be net zero buildings of any kind), the success of net-zero without the electric grid—utilities accept surplus BUILDINGS TO NET-ZERO buildings like the Bullitt Foundation’s new solar power from these buildings during the 52,000-square-foot building in Seattle, WA, and day and provide them with power at night or on NREL’s recently completed 220,000-square-foot cloudy days. Net-zero buildings don’t typically DISTRICTS AND COMMUNITIES office building in Golden, CO, illustrates that a operate fully off-grid, though many isolated older bigger building has more, not fewer, options for buildings have done so at extra cost with batteries. In the past few years, net-zero buildings—those that produce as much achieving net-zero status. Thus, net-zero and nearly-net-zero buildings (or more) clean energy on site as they use annually—have been gaining 5. Pesky plug loads: Designing and building a present a challenge for utilities and regulators momentum. Once considered a crazy idea, they’re now coming of age as a potentially net-zero building is one thing, but a responsible for designing electricity rates. Under realistic goal for a building. More than 400 such buildings are documented remaining challenge is the humans inside and existing rate designs, net-zero buildings may pay globally, with about one-fourth in the U.S. and Canada. This growing number their tendency to plug in gadgets, ranging from nothing, or very little, for the services that electric It Takes a Village It Takes is encouraging, yet for comparison, there are more buildings on the Cornell computer servers to coffee pots to computers and utilities provide balancing the load. This is partly University campus alone than there are net-zero buildings worldwide. (RMI smartphones. The Packard Foundation building’s why California’s public utilities commission is currently developing plans for just such a building for its own use, high 67 MWh/y surplus was more than created by the defined net-zero energy to mean that the net 37 in Colorado’s mountains, and Amory Lovins expects his own house, which nearly 90 MWh/y saved by RMI Senior Fellow societal value of grid electricity consumed vs. on- included RMI’s headquarters for its first 18 years, to go net zero as well.) Peter Rumsey’s push on plug loads, saving 58 site renewable energy generated is positive (as percent of their energy compared to a normal determined by some complex accounting).

LESSONS FROM SINGULAR BUILDINGS Winter 2014 Energy Star list but at no extra cost. Elsewhere, utilities and regulators in multiple jurisdictions around the country are also looking Shooting for net-zero status—whether it’s a realistically achievable goal or NET-ZERO LAW AND ORDER not—can galvanize creativity around a commendable, big, aggressive target. at how electricity prices can better reflect the cost of serving net-zero customers and provide incentives Recent projects illustrate five more key lessons for successfully reaching net- With net-zero buildings now a reality, building for net-zero-energy buildings to minimize zero status for a building: codes, standards, and certifications are evolving potential costs to the grid. Eventually, this may as well. The federal government has remained a 1. Double down on efficiency and plan for solar: In July 2013 the Packard include charging customers for how heavily they leader in this space, with Executive Order 13514, Foundation announced results from the first year of operation of its use the grid’s services at critical times, rather signed in October 2009, requiring all new federal headquarters building in Los Altos, CA. Extensive energy efficiency efforts than just charging them for the amount of energy buildings entering the planning process in or after reduced consumption to 46 percent below California’s strict Title 24 standards, they use in a given period. Such changes could 2020 to be net zero by 2030. The Byron Rodgers at 351 MWh for the year. That allowed solar PV to shine and take the building realign the incentives for net-zero design toward Federal Building in Denver, CO, is on its way to right through the net-zero ceiling, producing 418 MWh. flattening their loads through better management that status. And the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers of when energy is used, or perhaps through on-site 2. Learn, then repeat, repeat, repeat: The first try is invariably more costly has been piloting net-zero buildings since 2011. It storage. than it need be, so finding a way to repeat very similar efforts many times aims by 2030 to spread net-zero-energy, -water, and creates huge scaling opportunities. Walgreens, the largest drug store chain in -waste designs to its installations worldwide, with TAPPING THE POWER OF the nation, opened its first net-zero retail store in Evanston, IL, in November important projects underway from Fort Bliss, TX, COMM≠≠≠UNITIES 2013. In addition to myriad energy efficiency gains, the store features two to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, NY. wind turbines, 850 solar panels, and a geothermal heat pump system. Thomas Going net zero one building at a time is a Connolly, Walgreens vice president of facilities development, said, “We are Meanwhile, California’s revisions to Title 24 commendable goal, but as we’ve already begun investing in a net-zero energy store so we can bring what we learn to our other building standards establish ambitious new to discuss, not without challenges, including new and existing stores.” performance goals, requiring all new residential construction to be net-zero energy by 2020, and accounting, the role of the utility, the potential for Image courtesy Shutterstock. of IT TAKES A VILLAGE BY THE NUMBERS

overbuild (sizing a single building’s renewable city of Fort Collins, Colorado, also with help generation to cover its peak load), and practical from RMI, has undertaken the development of challenges unique to particular buildings. FortZED, a zero-energy district encompassing much of the city’s downtown business district Enter the biggest growing trend for net-zero and the Colorado State University campus. energy planning and design: net-zero districts, Deep Retrofit Value campuses, and even entire communities. MAKING NET-ZERO COMMUNITIES Applying net-zero energy at a district or A REALITY community level has several advantages. GOING BEYOND ENERGY SAVINGS For instance, multi-building systems offer While the promise of net-zero communities is opportunities for taking advantage of alluring, challenges remain. It may be easier Investment in the construction of new green buildings and deep energy retrofits of existing buildings has traditionally been based diverse load shapes, heat requirements, and in theory to design a net-zero district or on energy costs alone. But high-performance buildings generate far more value. Accounting for that value beyond energy savings in opportunities for renewable energy production. community than to try to meet such a standard sustainable building projects can help drive far greater investment in energy efficiency. Just as automakers can meld many models’ for each building individually, but it’s not always fuel economies into a fleet average, so too can possible. Existing electric utility regulations, net-zero districts and communities achieve for example, typically forbid neighbors from net-zero status in aggregate even though some exchanging energy among themselves, blocking individual buildings may do better or worse. integrated community microgrid solutions that could offer a net-zero pathway. So far, the nation’s largest planned community - designed to reach net-zero energy is West Yet RMI’s Electricity Innovation Lab (e Lab) is working on that problem and others. In Village, a mixed-use campus neighborhood at Risk quantification and Improved employee health, Improved employee Improved reputation and the University of California, Davis. It’s designed the end, opening the door to net-zero-energy mitigation that lowers reduced absenteeism, and recruiting, retention, and bolstered marketing to ultimately house 3,000 students along with communities could be a powerful way to enable return requirements lower employer health costs productivity 500 staff and faculty families. The first phase the transition to a cleaner and more secure is complete and has been occupied for more energy future. than a year, achieving 87 percent electrical James Newcomb and Robert “Hutch” Hutchinson are managing directors at RMI. self-sufficiency. Higher-than-expected demand from plug loads in some of the apartments, together with glitches in heat-pump water heater operations, accounted for the shortfall in meeting the net-zero goal in the first year, Reduced non-energy Access to new markets and but West Village’s managers are confident ENGAGE IN RMI’S WORK operating costs associated improved customer service that they will do it. Even the results to date JOIN THE NATIONAL SOLUTIONS COUNCIL with maintenance, water, and sales insurance, and churn rates are inspirational. We are extremely thankful for our National Solutions Council members who are committed Such larger-scale net-zero efforts are taking to supporting and promoting RMI’s work. With place at RMI as well. Our collaboration with a minimum contribution of $1,500 per year you energy service company Ameresco and help transform ideas to solutions and network Arizona State University is aiming to propel the with others who share the same goal: a vibrant nation’s largest university to a net-zero carbon future rich with abundant, clean energy. footprint—a tougher standard than net-zero WWW.RMI.ORG/NSC energy—by 2025. It’s the most aggressive large OR CONTACT [email protected] campus project in the country. Meanwhile, the Access to tax credits, grants, Higher lease-up, sub-lease, rebates, and other and sales rates for a incentives property

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