Europe and Iran in a Fast-Changing Middle East

The Trump administration’s decision to unilaterally cease compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal and implement a policy of “maximum EUROPE AND IRAN pressure” towards Iran has scuttled the European Union’s policy of conditional engagement with Tehran. This volume – the outcome of IN A FAST-CHANGING a joint IAI-FEPS project – delves into different dimensions of the cur- rent rivalries and geopolitical tensions characterising the Middle East, MIDDLE EAST addressing their implications for Europe. The analysis addresses the growing economic hardship in Iran following the re-imposition of US sanctions and the potential and prospects of EU-Iran cooperation in trade and energy domains. A final report addresses EU–Iran relations in the context of the geopolitical tensions surrounding the US’s with- drawal from the nuclear deal and European interests vis-à-vis Iran and the region. Progressive recommendations targeting EU actors span multiple layers of EU-Iran cooperation, both within and beyond the nuclear domain.

FEPS is the progressive political foundation established at the European level. Created in 2007, it aims at establishing an intellectual crossroad between social democracy and the European project. As a platform for ideas and dialogue, FEPS works in close collabora- tion with social democratic organizations, and in particular national foundations and think tanks across and beyond Europe, to tackle the challenges that we are facing today. FEPS inputs fresh thinking at the core of its action and serves as an instrument for pan-Euro- pean, intellectual political reflection. EUROPE AND IRAN IN A FAST-CHANGING MIDDLE EAST

IAI is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to promote awareness of international politics and to contribute to the advancement of European integration and multilateral cooperation. IAI is part of a vast international research network, and interacts and cooperates with the Italian government and its ministries, European and international institutions, universities, major national economic actors, the media and the most authoritative international think tanks. Cornelius ADEBAHR Ranj ALAALDIN Riccardo ALCARO This book is edited by FEPS and IAI with the financial support of the European Parliament. Andrea DESSÌ Ellie GERANMAYEH Vassilis NTOUSAS Ernst STETTER Adnan TABATABAI Nathalie TOCCI Luciano ZACCARA EUROPE AND IRAN IN A FAST-CHANGING MIDDLE EAST

EDITED BY ANDREA DESSÌ AND VASSILIS NTOUSAS EUROPE AND IRAN IN A FAST-CHANGING MIDDLE EAST

EDITED BY ANDREA DESSÌ AND VASSILIS NTOUSAS Published in June 2019 by

FEPS Foundation for European Progressive Studies Rue Montoyer 40, 4th floor B-1000 Brussels, Belgium T: +32 2 234 69 00 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.feps-europe.eu Twitter: @FEPS_Europe

IAI Istituto Affari Internazionali Via Angelo Brunetti 9 I-00186 Rome, Italy T: +39 063224360 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.iai.it Twitter: @IAIonline

The present study does not represent the collective views of FEPS and IAI but only of the authors.

With the financial support of the European Parliament The present study does not represent the European Parliament’s views.

Edited by Andrea Dessì and Vassilis Ntousas FEPS project coordinator: Vassilis Ntousas IAI project coordinator: Andrea Dessì

Cover design: Annabella Cuomo Cover photo: Shutterstock Page layout: Luca Mozzicarelli – Nuova Cultura, Rome, Italy

Printed by Edizioni Nuova Cultura, Rome

ISBN 9788833652214 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword Ernst Stetter and Nathalie Tocci 7

Introduction Andrea Dessì and Vassilis Ntousas 9

Chapter 1 Back to Crisis Mode: Iran’s Quest to Manage Internal Crises and External Pressures Adnan Tabatabai 15

Chapter 2 Regional Geopo