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Asseco Poland: Hold ( Downgraded ) ACP PW; ACP.WA | IT, Poland

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Asseco Poland: Hold ( Downgraded ) ACP PW; ACP.WA | IT, Poland Monday, September 26, 2016 | update Asseco Poland: hold ( downgraded ) ACP PW; ACP.WA | IT, Poland Parent Troubles Cloud Outlook Current Price PLN 57.25 Target Price PLN 60.60 The 2016 second-quarter earnings results of Asseco Poland were supported by continued growth achieved by most subsidiaries, Market Cap PLN 4.68bn underpinned by an appreciation in the euro relative to the US dollar Free Float PLN 4.23bn and the zloty, and one-time gains, resulting in year-over-year EBIT ADTV (3M) PLN 11.13m expansion by 4.3%. However, when it comes to the Poland-based parent company, which accounts for 41% of the total annual net Ownership earnings of the Asseco Group, while at the same it generating only 22% of the total EBIT, it has been experiencing a slowdown this Aviva OFE 11.31% year caused by cutbacks in local EU-funded public IT expenditures, Adam Góral, CEO 9.74% coupled with tightened revenues and profits from sales of business PZU OFE 5.16% solutions. The squeeze on parent profits can be resolved once NN OFE 5.03% government procurement is revived, though for now the planned tenders keep being pushed back, and what is more they are Others 68.76% expected to yield lower margins for public IT providers than in the past. Against this backdrop, after an over 16% gain logged in the past year, Asseco Poland shares have limited upside potential in our Business Profile view, especially given that we have had to revise our 2016 and 2017 Asseco Poland is a software developer and the leading software house in Poland offering IT net profit forecasts for the Company downward to PLN 314m and solutions dedicated to all sectors of the economy. PLN 338m, respectively - levels which we consider more realistic Asseco generates more than half of its annual than the respective current market estimates of PLN 337m and revenues from proprietary solutions. It has PLN 367m. Using relative valuation and sum-of-the-parts analysis, established a presence in most countries in Europe we set our new price target for ACP stock at PLN 60.60 per share, as well as in Israel, the US, Japan, and Canada. and we are downgrading our rating from accumulate to hold. Asseco companies are listed on stock exchanges in Poland, Israel and the US NASDAQ. Q2 2016 results Asseco experienced a significant drop in Q2 2016 EBIT which, adjusted for ACP vs. WIG one-time charge reversals, showed a year-over-year decrease of nearly 20% 65 at PLN 40.6m. The main factors which weighed on the quarterly operating ACP profit included a slump in public orders (with the revenue in the segment of PLN Public Institutions down 20% y/y), and weakened demand from corporate WIG customers (with sales to General Business posting a downturn of 40%, and 60 the segmental margin shrunken by 4.4ppts). The dismal performance of the parent company prompted downward revisions to our overalll earnings outlook for the whole Asseco Group. 55 Public spending revival coming in 2017 An informal survey among IT company executives has led us to the conclusion that the sector expects a resurgence in EU-funded government 50 orders some time early next year, set to be reflected in the earnings results for H2 2017. Based on statements given by public administration officials, however, we think it is safe to assume the new contracts will offer lower margins than those awarded with the support of the old EU budget 45 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 framework. The Polish government wants to implement centralized purchasing, reduce its IT costs, and apply more stringent procurement Target Price Rating criteria. For example, the central social security agency ZUS has recently put Company in place cost-saving measures (e.g. it has lowered the threshold for orders new old new old that require the approval of the Management Board from EUR 10m to Asseco Poland 60.60 62.89 hold accumulate EUR 250.000) while at the same time cutting the 2016 IT budget from Current Target Upside / Company PLN 80m to PLN 600-700m. The ZUS also wants to change its tender rules Price Price Downside to more easily cancel orders that go against its cost streamlining policy. Asseco Poland 57.25 60.60 +5.8% Forecast revision (PLN m) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2016E 2017E 2018E since last update Revenue 6,231.9 7,256.2 7,978.8 8,247.0 8,552.4 Revenue +9.9% +9.5% +10.0% EBITDA 905.4 1,007.7 1,069.0 1,100.2 1,142.5 EBITDA +0.3% +0.0% +1.4% EBITDA margin 14.5% 13.9% 13.4% 13.3% 13.4% Net profit -14.6% -11.0% -8.8% EBIT 637.0 745.2 785.4 812.1 849.0 Net profit 358.7 365.5 313.7 338.4 356.3 DPS 2.60 2.90 3.01 3.04 3.10 P/E 13.2 13.0 15.1 14.0 13.3 P/CE 7.6 7.6 8.0 7.6 7.3 Analyst: P/BV 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 EV/EBITDA 8.0 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.5 Paweł Szpigiel +48 22 438 24 06 DYield 4.5% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% [email protected] Valuation We determined the value of Asseco Poland using relative (PLN) weight price valuation and sum-of-the-parts analysis. Using this SOTP Analysis 50% 58.8 approach, we set our nine-month price target for ACP stock at PLN 60.60 per share. Relative Valuation 50% 55.1 price 57.0 9M Target Price 60.6 Sum-Of-The-Parts Analysis Segment Valuation (PLN m) Ownership Valuation Method Parent Company (Asseco Poland) 1,883 100.0% DCF Asseco Central Europe 674 93.5% DCF Asseco Business Solutions 873 46.5% DCF Asseco South Eastern Europe 561 51.1% DCF Asseco Western Europe 382 100.0% 11x P/E Formula Systems (USDPLN = 3.83) 2,256 46.3% market value R-Style Softlab 11 100.0% 6x P/E Other 238 10x P/E Total 4,879 Value per share (PLN) 58.8 9M Target Price 62.5 2 DCF Analysis: Parent Company Assumptions: ° The DCF model uses the projected standalone earnings of the parent company from H2 2016 to FY2025. ° The risk-free rate in the forecast period is 3.50%. ° We assume FCF after the forecast period will grow at a rate of 0.0%. ° Net debt is as of 30 June 2016 (PLN 247m). DCF Model (PLN m) 2H'16P 2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2025+ Revenue 657 1,156 1,208 1,247 1,279 1,308 1,334 1,361 1,388 1,416 change 3.1% 4.4% 3.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% EBIT 84.0 180.9 191.5 199.4 205.8 211.4 216.4 221.6 226.8 232.1 EBIT margin 12.8% 15.6% 15.9% 16.0% 16.1% 16.2% 16.2% 16.3% 16.3% 16.4% Tax on EBIT 16.0 34.4 36.4 37.9 39.1 40.2 41.1 42.1 43.1 44.1 effective tax rate 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% NOPLAT 68.1 146.5 155.1 161.5 166.7 171.3 175.3 179.5 183.7 188.0 D&A 24.4 43.2 43.0 42.2 41.2 40.1 39.0 37.8 36.7 35.7 CAPEX -16.0 -21.6 -24.8 -28.2 -31.8 -32.6 -33.2 -33.9 -34.6 -35.7 Working capital 48.4 -8.6 -12.5 -9.5 -7.8 -7.1 -6.3 -6.5 -6.6 -6.7 FCF 124.9 159.5 160.8 166.0 168.3 171.8 174.7 176.9 179.3 181.3 181.3 WACC 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% Discount factor 97.3% 89.8% 82.8% 76.3% 70.3% 64.8% 59.8% 55.1% 50.8% 46.8% PV FCF 121.6 143.2 133.1 126.7 118.4 111.4 104.4 97.5 91.0 84.8 WACC 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% Cost of debt 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Risk-free rate 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Risk premium 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Effective tax rate 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% Net debt / EV 2.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cost of equity 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% Risk premium 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Beta 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 FCF after the forecast period 0.0% Terminal value 2,133 Present value of terminal value 998 Present value of FCF in the forecast period 1,132 Enterprise value 2,130 Net debt at 30 Jun.
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