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Climate Change Risks in Select Agricultural Value Chains of Pakistan

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Climate Change Risks in Select Agricultural Value Chains of Pakistan This project is funded by the European Union GRASP • PAKISTAN GROWTH FOR RURAL ADVANCEMENT AND SUSTAINABLE PROGRESS Climate change risks in select agricultural value chains of Pakistan www.intracen.org/GRASP/ Digital images on the cover: © Xxxxx, © Xxxxx The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Trade Centre concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This document has not formally been edited by the International Trade Centre. CONTENTS 1.1 Growth for Rural Advanacement and Sustainable Progress ................................ 1 1.2 Specific study objectives ...................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 The Food-Energy-Water Nexus .................................................................... 1 1.3 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 Environmental Mainstreaming ....................................................................... 2 1.3.2 Incorporating Climate Risks in Value Chains ................................................ 2 1.3.3 Stage 1 – Selection of the Value Chain ........................................................ 3 1.3.4 Stage 2 – Identification of Climate Risks ...................................................... 3 1.3.5 Stage 3 – Choice of effective climate interventions ...................................... 3 2.1 Pakistan climate overview .................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Rainfall .......................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Flooding and Flash Floods ............................................................................ 7 2.1.3 Drought .......................................................................................................... 7 2.1.4 Declining water availability ............................................................................ 8 2.1.5 Key issues – climatic conditions of Pakistan ............................................... 10 2.2 Climate change vulnerability in Balochistan ....................................................... 11 2.2.1 Temperature Patterns in Balochistan .......................................................... 11 2.2.2 Precipitation Patterns in Balochistan........................................................... 12 2.2.3 Climate Extremes ........................................................................................ 12 2.2.4 Water Management ..................................................................................... 14 2.2.5 Climate Projections ..................................................................................... 17 2.2.6 Key issues – climatic conditions in Balochistan .......................................... 17 2.3 Climate Change Vulnerability in Sindh ............................................................... 18 2.3.1 Temperature Patterns in Sindh ................................................................... 18 2.3.2 Precipitation Patterns in Sindh .................................................................... 19 2.3.3 Climate Extremes ........................................................................................ 19 2.3.4 Water Management ..................................................................................... 21 2.3.5 Climate Projections ..................................................................................... 24 2.3.6 Key issues – climatic conditions in Sindh ................................................... 24 3.1 Climate Risks in Selected Economic Sectors ..................................................... 25 3.1.1 Climate Risks in the Horticulture Sector ..................................................... 25 3.1.2 Climate Risks in the Livestock Sector ......................................................... 26 3.2 Climate Risks for Horticulture and Livestock Sectors in Balochistan ................. 27 3.2.1 Horticulture value chain climate and environmental risks in Balochistan ... 27 ii 3.2.2 Livestock value chain climate and environmental risks in Balochistan ...... 28 3.3 Climate Risks for Horticulture and Livestock Sectors in Sindh.......................... 30 3.3.1 Horticulture value chain climate and environmental risks in Sindh ............ 30 3.3.2 Livestock value chain climate and environmental risks in Sindh ............... 31 3.4 Climate Risks, Mitigation and Adapatation Strategies Along the Value Chain.. 33 3.4.1 Climate Smart Agriculture and the role of technology ............................... 33 3.4.2 Developing Markets for Climate Smart Agriculture and the Role of Technology ........................................................................................................ 34 3.4.3 Mainstreaming Climate Risks in Value Chain Interventions ...................... 34 4.1 Policy responses to climate change .................................................................. 35 4.1.1 Policy Development .................................................................................... 36 4.2 Cost of climate financing.................................................................................... 36 4.3 Sources of climate finance ................................................................................ 36 4.3.1 Institutional Mechanisms ............................................................................ 37 6.1 Dates.................................................................................................................... 1 6.2 Grapes ................................................................................................................. 7 6.3 Olive ................................................................................................................... 16 6.4 Onion ................................................................................................................. 24 7.1 Dates.................................................................................................................. 32 7.2 Mangos .............................................................................................................. 39 7.3 Bananas ............................................................................................................. 46 7.4 Tomato ............................................................................................................... 53 8.5 Onions ................................................................................................................. 60 8.1 Backyard Poultry ................................................................................................ 68 8.2 Goats and Sheep ............................................................................................... 72 9.1 Cattle.................................................................................................................. 77 9.2 Goats ................................................................................................................. 81 iii ABBREVIATIONS APF Million Acre Feet. Adaptation Policy Framework. NAMA DAP National Appropriate Mitigation Actions. Diammonium phosphate. NAP FEW National Adaptation Plan. Food Energy and Water. NCCP GB National Climate Change Policy. Gilgit‐Baltistan. O&M GDP Operation and maintenance. Gross Domestic Product. PIDA GHG Punjab irrigation and Drainage Authority. Greenhouse Gases. PKR GRASP Pakistani Rupee. Growth for Rural Advancement and Sustainable PMD Progress. See Pakistan Meteorological Department. IBIS SDG Indus Basin irrigation System. Sustainable Develpment Goals. IFAD UNDP International Fund for Agricultural Development. United Nations Development Programme. IPCC UNFCCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate KPK Change. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. WRI MAF World Resources Institute. iv Background 1.1 Growth for Rural Advanacement and Sustainable Progress 1.2 Specific study objectives The report will outline the environmental risks to specific value chains identified by during the inception phase of Growth for Rural Advancement and Sustainable Progress (GRASP) and provide the framework to mainstream environmental objectives into the project. The report will acknowledge that although the Food-Energy-Water Nexus is not the focus of the project, the framework provides a good illustration of the need to conduct an environmental risk assessment and the nature of linkages between the three systems. The report will follow a climate change risk management approach based on the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Adaptation Policy Framework (APF))1. The GRASP project has the concept of sustainability embedded in the design of the project and the scoping and design stages have been complete. Section One of the report will assess the current vulnerabilities as well as current and future climate risks. Section Two will focus on the development of adaptation strategies for the selected value chain in the GRASP project. 1.2.1 The Food-Energy-Water Nexus The approach of the GRASP project focuses on the market and then works towards the farmer; this means from the planting to the market and all the stages in between, looking to increase productivity and profitability.
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