Retail, Hospitality, and Tourism

Regional Workforce Advisory Meeting: Retail, Hospitality, and Tourism

April 16, 2021 9:00 AM - 12:00 PM Housekeeping

• Enable your video (optional) • Please stay on mute unless you are called on to ask a question • Submit all questions, technical difficulties, or other commentary to the Chatbox; or raise your virtual hand to be called upon • This meeting will be recorded and will be provided as part of the post meeting materials

2 Welcome and Introduction

Josh Sweigert, Regional Director, Employer Engagement, Retail, Hospitality, and Tourism, North Far North

3 Welcome and Introduction

Renee John Project Leader 21st Century Workforce Valley Vision

4 Supported By

5 Agenda

9:00 AM Welcome & Introduction 9:05 AM Keynote - Mike Testa, President and CEO, Visit Sacramento 9:25 AM Industry Insights Panel Discussion 10:30 AM Break 10:40 AM Industry Insights, Economic, Policy and COVID -19 11:10 AM Breakout Discussions 11:40 AM Share Discussion Highlights 11:50 AM Introduction to Opportunities to Partner

6 Keynote

Mike Testa President and CEO, Visit Sacramento

7 The Tourism Landscape • Where we were • 2020 • Hope on the horizon Who We Are • The Sacramento region’s premier Destination Marketing Organization (DMO) • Responsible for generating tourism in the greater Sacramento area through sales and marketing • Making Sacramento a better place for our residents Visit Sacramento In “Normal Times” • Booking major conventions and sports events • Producing world-class special events • Hosting travel journalists in Sacramento and pitching national media to inspire stories about our region • Utilizing advertising, social media, podcasts and more to share Sacramento's personality and to tell the region’s destination story • Looking at what’s next to generate new travel and visitor spending to our market Sacramento as a destination – Pre-COVID • Sacramento Convention Center closed for critical renovation and expansion • Added new hotels to the market, several new hotels in the works • Sacramento rated by the famed Michelin Guide; food scene buzzing • NCAA, USA Track & Field and more booking major sports events in the region • Aftershock's continued growth and adding new festivals to the market The pandemic and tourism • More than 100,000 people employed in tourism and hospitality pre-pandemic • Visit Sacramento & hospitality industry faced reduced budget, closures, loss of staff • Local hospitality businesses forced to reinvent themselves and do more with less • Visit Sacramento – pivoted to target locals instead of visitors • Travel in Place • TBD To Go • Dance Gavin Dance Sacramento kept moving • Construction continued at the SAFE Credit Union Convention Center • Visit Sacramento staff continued to book conventions, sports and festivals • Most of Sacramento’s hotels have reopened • Many gems, like restaurants and attractions have found ways to survive The Return of Tourism • Inviting visitors back • Re-opening conversations with conventions and sports clients • Launching multiple campaigns to drive leisure visitation • All eyes on June 2021 • WSM • Opening of the Safe Credit Union Convention Center • Conventions Booked • Farm-to-Fork Festival • Ironman • Aftershock • Junior Olympics Excitement for What’s To Come • Destination development • Conventions in 2022 and beyond • Diversifying sports events • Expanding festivals • New hotels and attractions • Focus on DEI – making tourism count for the whole community Follow Visit Sacramento

• The Visit Sacramento Podcast - On all major platforms

• Facebook - @VisitSacramento,@Visit Sacramento Partners @FarmtoForkCapital, @SacramentoSports, @Sacramento365

• Twitter - @VisitSacramento, @SacFarm2Fork, @SacSportsCom, @Sacramento365

• Instagram - @VisitSacramento, @SacFarm2Fork, @SacSportsCom, @Sacramento365 Industry Panel Discussion

Josh Sweigert, Regional Director, Employer Engagement, Retail, Hospitality, and Tourism, North Far North

17 Industry Insights with Q&A

Tim Bahar Alycia Bobbin Lynn Stallings Abullarade Harshfield Mulvaney Mohrfeld Vice President of Human Resources Executive Director, Co-owner, President and CEO, Operations, Business Partner, California Mulvaney’s B&L California Hotel and Sacramento Raley’s Restaurant Lodging Republic FC Foundation Association

18 BREAK

10:30 am - 10:40 am

19 Industry Insights, Economic, Policy and COVID -19

Dr. Robert Eyler President, Economic Forensics and Analytics, Inc.

20 21

VALLEY VISION RHT ADVISORY COVID-19, RETAIL AND THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY

WEBINAR APRIL 16, 2021

Robert Eyler, Ph.D. President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc. Professor, Economics, Sonoma State University [email protected] 22 Agenda

• National and California Overview: general confidence indicators • Major economic variables and forecasts: outlook better than those in late 2020 • For retail businesses: travel and local demand key to rebound • For hospitality businesses: good forecasts and want to travel across all socioeconomic groups • California Economy, Retail and Hospitality • Additional state-level indicators: lagging a bit, but also good to 2022 • Workforce Development: will a shadow remain over hospitality and labor demand? • The future of retail and hospitality: Challenges and Opportunities 23 Employment Recovery Comparison, United States, Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession, Months from Peak, Index Nov 2007 and Jan 2020 = 100 to March 2021 105

100

95 94.7 90

75 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 Great Recession COVID-19

Source: BLS and EFA 24 Changes in Jobs, Selected Industries, % Change since previous year, April, December 2020 and Jan and Feb and Mar 2021, US

Apr-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 0.0% -0.7% -1.2% -2.0% -1.0% -1.6% -10.0% -4.5% -3.6% -5.0% -2.5% -4.3% -7.8% -5.2% -6.1% -20.0% -9.5% -10.0% -30.0% -40.0% -27.6% -50.0% -60.0% -70.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) and EFA 25

Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Federal Reserve Philadelphia Previous New Previous New Forecast, Survey of Quarterly Professional Forecasters 2021:Q1 3.2 3.2 6.7 6.3 2021:Q2 3.5 5.0 6.5 6.1 Forecasted inflation between 2.1 and 2.5% 2021:Q3 3.5 5.3 6.1 5.7 per year to 2024: interest rates to remain 2021:Q4 3.3 4.0 5.8 5.4 low to 2023 minimum 2022:Q1 N.A. 3.7 N.A. 5.1 These data are from Jan 2021 Annual data (projections based on annual-average levels):

This is now +6.5% for 2021 2021 4.0 4.5 6.3 5.9 as of March 17 2022 3.0 3.7 5.2 4.8 2023 2.1 3.1 4.6 4.2 2024 N.A. 2.5 N.A. 4.0 Source: Federal Reserve Philadelphia Branch 26 Household Spending (or Not) and Federal Stimulus % Saved, Spent, or Used to Pay Down Debt (Saved), 2020-21

Inside these numbers: • Potential spending on retail and travel • A reduction in threat of major financial problems • Slower growth • Slower inflation pressure

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York 27 Employment Recovery Comparison, California, Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession, Months from Peak, Index Nov 2007 and Jan 2020 = 100 to March 2021

105.0

100.0

95.0 93.2

90.0

85.0

80.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 Months from Peak

Great Recession COVID-19

Source: California EDD and EFA 28 Changes in Jobs, Selected Industries, % Change since previous year, April 2020 to March 2021, California

10.0% 5.7% 5.0% 1.4% 0.0% -5.0% -0.8% -3.6% -3.3% -4.1% -10.0% -5.5% -5.9% -7.7% -4.6% -8.1% -15.0% -20.0% -9.3% -25.0% -20.7% -30.0% -35.0% -29.1% -40.0% -45.0%

Apr-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Sources: California EDD and EFA 29

Retail and Hospitality: Workforce Development Jobs and the Future 30 Evolution of Jobs in Retail in CA, 2000 to 2021 Index (Year 2000 = 100) 200

180

160

140

120

100

0 Nonstore Building Food & General Health & Gasoline Retail Trade Clothing & Motor Vehicle Furniture & Miscellaneous Sporting Electronics & Retailers Material & Beverage Merchandise Personal Care Stations Clothing & Parts Dealer Home Store Retailers Goods, Hobby, Appliance Garden Equip Stores Stores Stores Accessories Furnishings Book & Music Stores Stores Stores Stores Stores

2000 2010 2015 2021

Sources: California EDD and EFA 31 COVID-19 and Pain in Retail, % change Year on Year, April 2020 and Feb 2021, California

20.0% 10.2% 10.0% 3.3% 1.3% 0.0%

-10.0% -2.6% -4.8% -20.0% -5.9% -7.8% -30.0% -8.2% -9.2% -11.5% -40.0% -13.2% -14.8% -50.0% -18.6% -60.0%

-70.0%

April 2019-20 Feb 2020-21 Sources: California EDD and EFA 32 Evolution of Jobs in Hospitality in CA, 2000 to 2021 Index (Year 2000 = 100), January of Each Year

250

200

149.1 150 74.4 100

50 31.3

2000 2010 2015 2021

Sources: California EDD and EFA 33 COVID-19 and Pain in Hospitality: % Change Year on Year, April 2020 and Feb 2021, California

0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -12.3% -16.7% -30.0% -40.0% -32.2% -34.4% -36.5% -50.0% -40.8% -40.9% -49.3% -60.0% -48.1% -57.9% -70.0% -59.4% -63.0% -80.0% -76.5% -90.0%

April 2019 - April 2020 Feb 2020 - Feb 2021

Sources: California EDD and EFA 34 Non-Farm Jobs, Major MSAs in Valley Vision Region and CA, % change from Previous Year

Non-Farm 0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0% -3.6% -6.0% -6.2% -8.0%

-10.0% -9.5% -9.8% -9.5% -12.0%

-14.0%

-16.0%

-18.0% CA Chico MSA Redding MSA Sac MSA Yuba/Sutter MSA April 2019 to April 2020 Feb 2020 to Feb 2021

Sources: California EDD and EFA 35 Retail Jobs, Major MSAs in Valley Vision Region and CA, % change from Previous Year

Retail 5.0% 2.2%

0.0%

-1.9% -5.0% -3.5% -4.8% -7.6% -10.0%

-15.0%

-20.0%

-25.0% CA Chico MSA Redding MSA Sac MSA Yuba/Sutter MSA April 2019 to April 2020 Feb 2020 to Feb 2021

Sources: California EDD and EFA 36 Hospitality Jobs, Major MSAs in Valley Vision Region and CA, % change from Previous Year

Leisure and Hospitality 0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0% -29.0% -32.2% -32.1% -34.4% -34.0% -40.0%

-50.0%

-60.0% CA Chico MSA Redding MSA Sac MSA Yuba/Sutter MSA April 2019 to April 2020 Feb 2020 to Feb 2021

Sources: California EDD and EFA 37

Shifting Occupations to 2030: Global Challenges

Thinking about structural change: • Will there be retail jobs that are eliminated because brick and mortar capacity falls? • Will restaurant workers come back at the “old” capacity? • Will drivers continued to be demanded at the same level? • Will travel increase and will there be an urban/suburban- rural split? • Will business travel return? Looking Forward: Opportunities for Retail and Hospitality • Retrain and Retool: Opportunity • Workforce development opportunity to retrain long-term unemployed for other industries • Construction and manufacturing: easy to retrain here? • Warehousing: the new brick-and-mortar retail workplace? • Challenge: Older workers using retail or restaurant as an income source • Looking out toward 2030: Two major items • Automation in hospitality • Local brick and mortar retail focused on visitors as main “physical” employer 39

Thanks! Questions? [email protected] @bobby7007 Breakout Sessions

● Based on the information shared today, what changes/additions/updates should be the top priorities for educators to consider in culinary, hospitality, and retail CTE programs?

● What are some steps that RHT employers in California can take to incentivize and promote entry into and upskilling in their industry sectors?

● What other suggestions or feedback do you see as important to provide to K-12, Adult Education and Community College RHT programs in the Greater Sacramento region?

40 Breakout Discussions Mentimeter Instructions ● In our Breakout Rooms, we will use Mentimeter to kick off discussion and keep track of feedback! ● You will go to www.Menti.com and input the code provided to you within the Breakout Room

Choose one person to share out from your group!

41 Break out Rooms in Session (11:10 - 11:40am)

42 Share Discussion Highlights

43 Follow -Up / Next Steps ● Opportunities to Partner: ○ Curriculum Advisory ○ Job-Shadowing, Internships, Apprenticeship

Josh Sweigert [email protected] (530) 541-4660, Ext. 672

● Retail Hospitality Tourism website: ○ https://careerreadycalifornia.com/

● ICAN (Infection Control for All Now) contextualized training modules

44 THANK YOU FOR JOINING For more information contact

Renee John - Valley Vision Workforce Manager [email protected]

Josh Sweigert - Regional Director, Employer Engagement, Retail, Hospitality and Tourism, North/Far North Region [email protected]