May 2012 NOREF Report The coup in Mali: the result of a long-term crisis or spillover from the Libyan civil war? Roland Marchal Executive summary The current crisis in Mali was not the north, it should be noted that the many unexpected, although most national armed groups have different agendas, and and international players were eager to position themselves differently towards maintain an unrealistic view of political the local population and the Malian state. developments in this Sahelian country. This What is unclear is whether they will be crisis reflects the decay of state institutions able to co-exist on the same territory while and practices: the Malian army collapsed trafficking and a protection economy are and patronage does not mean democracy. the only sustainable resources. The crisis is built on four dynamics that have their own effects: the debatable The jihadi aspect of some components of implementation of previous peace the insurgency has to be understood in settlements with the Tuareg insurgency; context and should not be seen as erasing the growing economic importance of social and economic differences in a AQIM activities in the Sahelian region; the heterogeneous northern Mali. It proves collapse of the Qaddafi regime in Libya; the successful demonstration effect that and the inability or unwillingness of Algeria small groups such as AQIM and Ansar ed- to play the role of regional hegemon now Din can have. It should also draw more that its rival (Libya) has stopped doing so. attention to a regional context that could provide radicals with a wider audience While the Tuareg rebellion has been able to and credibility by building opportunistic gain from the collapse of the Malian army in coalitions. Roland Marchal is a senior research fellow at the National Centre for Scientific Research based at the Centre for International Studies and Researches (CERI/Sciences-Po, Paris). He was the chief editor of the French academic quarterly Politique africaine from 2002 to 2006, and has been researching and publishing on the conflicts and politics inAfrica for more than 30 years. This paper was produced for the Nordic International Support (NIS) Foundation and is published by NOREF in co-operation with NIS. The coup in Mali: the result of a long-term crisis or spillover from the Libyan civil war? The current crisis in Mali is not over, despite a real taking root of democratic practices and the constitutional arrangement that allowed the institutions in the country. departure of President Amadou Toumani Touré and the appointment of an interim president, This system was made possible by the increasing Dioncounda Traoré. The following short analysis criminalisation of the ruling elites (including tries to make points that should be kept in mind the military) in Mali. While little is known about whatever developments occur in the next weeks. the embezzlement of aid and under-the-table payments by foreign firms over the last decade, allegations about drug trafficking have been The first casualty of the crisis: numerous in the Malian free media and have systematically targeted the former president’s a particular image of Malian inner circle. Negotiating the release of foreign democracy hostages kidnapped in the Malian Sahel region has also been a profitable business for After the overthrow of Moussa Traoré in March the negotiators (this has also been observed 1991, most foreign observers perceived Malian in Somalia, where law firms facilitating such politics as a model of democratisation. This negotiations may be making as much money as image was cultivated until very recently, despite a the pirates who kidnap the hostages). growing discrepancy with the reality that prevailed. Today, critics point to several issues that should When Touré won the 2002 election, Transparency be addressed both nationally and internationally International ranked Mali 77th of 182 countries in to avoid a democratic stagnation or even a return its corruption perceptions index; it had fallen to to more authoritarian political practices in Mali. 118th by 2011. A World Bank study indicates that more than two-thirds of Malian businesses have At the regional level, various important questions paid bribes to win bids for government contracts. need examining, e.g. those relating to Mali’s past relations with the former Libyan president, The facade of Malian democracy and the Muammar Qaddafi (the previous Malian president, government’s fight against al-Qaeda in the Islamic Alpha Omar Konare, visited Tripoli more than Maghreb (AQIM) have also provided important 50 times while in office), and those relating to diplomatic and aid resources to the state in recent the role of Algeria in the region (suspicions of years. These resources were rarely allocated to a hidden Algerian agenda do not help in the support either the military apparatus or access framing of policy). Many Malian observers feel to social services in northern Mali, as they were that the country’s political elites have been relying intended. In this context, government corruption unilaterally on Mali’s two neighbours to secure has had a direct impact on Mali’s national security the northern part of the country and address and its ability to fight regional terrorism in the form issues that should have been the core duty of of AQIM. the government, such as the Tuareg question and the rigorous enforcement of previous peace President Touré’s behaviour over the last months settlement (including the funding of devolution was marked by his wait-and-see attitude and his and the integration of Tuareg insurgents into the reluctance to mobilise accessible international national army). and regional support. History will tell whether this lack of enthusiasm was motivated by the Former President Touré’s presidency was need to protect the golden goose (i.e. that of an organised on a simple and efficient principle: that ungovernable northern Mali that could attract of using patronage to co-opt the main parties’ sizeable international aid to combat instability in leadership to prevent any opposition. This the region and where illicit trafficking of all kinds management of the political arena was not the could proceed without difficulty). “consensual democracy” some academics have portrayed, but more a subtle way to pre-empt any The Malian army is the best illustration of this public debate on governance and corruption. Its era. While it was apparently receiving significant outcome was more a democratic stagnation than funding from the authorities and key international - 2 - The coup in Mali: the result of a long-term crisis or spillover from the Libyan civil war? donors, it had not the elementary means to Given the role being played by Libya in northern maintain law and order in northern Mali: a lack of Mali, from February 2011 one would have fuel and ammunition was the norm, despite the expected that the crisis in Libya would have dire continued deterioration of the security situation in consequences for stability in neighbouring parts the northern region. The easy victory of Tuareg of Mali. From the very beginning, those opposed insurgents in northern Mali in April is primarily the to the Qaddafi regime proved to be staunchly consequence of many officers defecting from the “anti-African”, given the latter’s perceived loyalty Malian army because of the lack of support from to the deposed president. African workers the central government. suffered attacks and property owned by Africans was looted with impunity by anti-Qaddafi forces. This raises an uncomfortable question for France Therefore, there was no hope that long-term and the U.S., two countries that developed African residents, especially those involved in the important military co-operation with Mali over the military and security services, would be able to last years because of AQIM’s growing activities in remain in Libya. northern Mali. Little was done in Mali – in contrast with what The recent constitutional arrangement should happened in Niger – to control the flows of be analysed with caution. The new interim refugees and disarm the former Libyan soldiers president (and former speaker of parliament) who were crossing the Malian border (not all of was previously a minister of defence who was whom were Tuareg). Is it important to ask whether not popular in the army while in office. The March this was a result of apathy on the part of the Touré 2012 coup was not planned and was more an government and why it did not respond to various expression of frustration among rank-and-file requests made by the army, France and the U.S. soldiers against their general officers, and the to take action. military has grievances that need to be addressed sooner rather than later if a lasting stability is to The arrival of experienced fighters and the be found. Some of these grievances relate purely widespread access to weapons, ammunition and to the management of the military regarding the money were likely triggers to the conflict. However, payment of wages and allowances, but others tensions were brewing in the region for quite point to the ambiguous enforcement of previous some time beforehand and for months Tuareg peace settlements with Tuareg insurgencies activists were mobilising and gathering support and the de facto acceptance by the political both within and outside of Mali, because the authorities of different statuses within the army. implementation of the last peace settlement was Providing an adequate answer to this criticism controversial among them. Politically, it was clear when negotiations begin again is going to be very that the situation was once again deteriorating challenging for the new government. even before the collapse of the Qaddafi regime in Libya. The Libyan civil war: Conspiracy theories flourish in Bamako about the failure to address the crisis being created by the trigger for the crisis, the return of Tuareg soldiers from the collapsed but not its creator Libyan military to northern Mali.