89Th Josiah Willard Gibbs Lecture Wednesday, January 6, 2016 8:30–9:30 PM
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The Meaning of Probability
CHAPTER 2 THE MEANING OF PROBABILITY INTRODUCTION by Glenn Shafer The meaning of probability has been debated since the mathematical theory of probability was formulated in the late 1600s. The five articles in this section have been selected to provide perspective on the history and present state of this debate. Mathematical statistics provided the main arena for debating the meaning of probability during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The debate was conducted mainly between two camps, the subjectivists and the frequentists. The subjectivists contended that the probability of an event is the degree to which someone believes it, as indicated by their willingness to bet or take other actions. The frequentists contended that probability of an event is the frequency with which it occurs. Leonard J. Savage (1917-1971), the author of our first article, was an influential subjectivist. Bradley Efron, the author of our second article, is a leading contemporary frequentist. A newer debate, dating only from the 1950s and conducted more by psychologists and economists than by statisticians, has been concerned with whether the rules of probability are descriptive of human behavior or instead normative for human and machine reasoning. This debate has inspired empirical studies of the ways people violate the rules. In our third article, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman report on some of the results of these studies. In our fourth article, Amos Tversky and I propose that we resolve both debates by formalizing a constructive interpretation of probability. According to this interpretation, probabilities are degrees of belief deliberately constructed and adopted on the basis of evidence, and frequencies are only one among many types of evidence. -
Selected Bibliography of American History Through Biography
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 088 763 SO 007 145 AUTHOR Fustukjian, Samuel, Comp. TITLE Selected Bibliography of American History through Biography. PUB DATE Aug 71 NOTE 101p.; Represents holdings in the Penfold Library, State University of New York, College at Oswego EDRS PRICE MF-$0.75 HC-$5.40 DESCRIPTORS *American Culture; *American Studies; Architects; Bibliographies; *Biographies; Business; Education; Lawyers; Literature; Medicine; Military Personnel; Politics; Presidents; Religion; Scientists; Social Work; *United States History ABSTRACT The books included in this bibliography were written by or about notable Americans from the 16th century to the present and were selected from the moldings of the Penfield Library, State University of New York, Oswego, on the basis of the individual's contribution in his field. The division irto subject groups is borrowed from the biographical section of the "Encyclopedia of American History" with the addition of "Presidents" and includes fields in science, social science, arts and humanities, and public life. A person versatile in more than one field is categorized under the field which reflects his greatest achievement. Scientists who were more effective in the diffusion of knowledge than in original and creative work, appear in the tables as "Educators." Each bibliographic entry includes author, title, publisher, place and data of publication, and Library of Congress classification. An index of names and list of selected reference tools containing biographies concludes the bibliography. (JH) U S DEPARTMENT Of NIA1.114, EDUCATIONaWELFARE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OP EDUCATION THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO DUCED ExAC ICY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATIONORIGIN ATING IT POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILYREPRE SENT OFFICIAL NATIONAL INSTITUTEOF EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY PREFACE American History, through biograRhies is a bibliography of books written about 1, notable Americans, found in Penfield Library at S.U.N.Y. -
Henry Andrews Bumstead 1870-1920
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS VOLUME XIII SECOND MEMOIR BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIR OF HENRY ANDREWS BUMSTEAD 1870-1920 BY LEIGH PAGE PRESENTED TO THE ACADEMY AT THE ANNUAL MEETING, 1929 HENRY ANDREWS BUMSTEAD BY LIUGH PAGE Henry Andrews Bumstead was born in the small town of Pekin, Illinois, on March 12th, 1870, son of Samuel Josiah Bumstead and Sarah Ellen Seiwell. His father, who was a physician of considerable local prominence, had graduated from the medical school in Philadelphia and was one of the first American students of medicine to go to Vienna to complete his studies. While the family was in Vienna, Bumstead, then a child three years of age, learned to speak German as fluently as he spoke English, an accomplishment which was to prove valuable to him in his subsequent career. Bumstead was descended from an old New England family which traces its origin to Thomas Bumstead, a native of Eng- land, who settled in Boston, Massachusetts, about 1640. Many of his ancestors were engaged in the professions, his paternal grandfather, the Reverend Samuel Andrews Bumstead, being a graduate of Princeton Theological Seminary and a minister in active service. From them he inherited a keen mind and an unusually retentive memory. It is related that long before he had learned to read, his Sunday school teacher surprised his mother by complimenting her on the ease with which her son had rendered the Sunday lesson. It turned out that his mother made a habit of reading the lesson to Bumstead before he left for school, and the child's remarkable performance there was due to his ability to hold in his memory every word of the lesson after hearing it read to him a single time. -
Strength in Numbers: the Rising of Academic Statistics Departments In
Agresti · Meng Agresti Eds. Alan Agresti · Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics DepartmentsStatistics in the U.S. Rising of Academic The in Numbers: Strength Statistics Departments in the U.S. Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. Alan Agresti • Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. 123 Editors Alan Agresti Xiao-Li Meng Department of Statistics Department of Statistics University of Florida Harvard University Gainesville, FL Cambridge, MA USA USA ISBN 978-1-4614-3648-5 ISBN 978-1-4614-3649-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-3649-2 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2012942702 Ó Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. -
Cramer, and Rao
2000 PARZEN PRIZE FOR STATISTICAL INNOVATION awarded by TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS to C. R. RAO April 24, 2000 292 Breezeway MSC 4 pm Pictures from Parzen Prize Presentation and Reception, 4/24/2000 The 2000 EMANUEL AND CAROL PARZEN PRIZE FOR STATISTICAL INNOVATION is awarded to C. Radhakrishna Rao (Eberly Professor of Statistics, and Director of the Center for Multivariate Analysis, at the Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802) for outstanding distinction and eminence in research on the theory of statistics, in applications of statistical methods in diverse fields, in providing international leadership for 55 years in directing statistical research centers, in continuing impact through his vision and effectiveness as a scholar and teacher, and in extensive service to American and international society. The year 2000 motivates us to plan for the future of the discipline of statistics which emerged in the 20th century as a firmly grounded mathematical science due to the pioneering research of Pearson, Gossett, Fisher, Neyman, Hotelling, Wald, Cramer, and Rao. Numerous honors and awards to Rao demonstrate the esteem in which he is held throughout the world for his unusually distinguished and productive life. C. R. Rao was born September 10, 1920, received his Ph.D. from Cambridge University (England) in 1948, and has been awarded 22 honorary doctorates. He has worked at the Indian Statistical Institute (1944-1992), University of Pittsburgh (1979- 1988), and Pennsylvania State University (1988- ). Professor Rao is the author (or co-author) of 14 books and over 300 publications. His pioneering contributions (in linear models, multivariate analysis, design of experiments and combinatorics, probability distribution characterizations, generalized inverses, and robust inference) are taught in statistics textbooks. -
Four Results of Jon Kleinberg a Talk for St.Petersburg Mathematical Society
Four Results of Jon Kleinberg A Talk for St.Petersburg Mathematical Society Yury Lifshits Steklov Institute of Mathematics at St.Petersburg May 2007 1 / 43 2 Hubs and Authorities 3 Nearest Neighbors: Faster Than Brute Force 4 Navigation in a Small World 5 Bursty Structure in Streams Outline 1 Nevanlinna Prize for Jon Kleinberg History of Nevanlinna Prize Who is Jon Kleinberg 2 / 43 3 Nearest Neighbors: Faster Than Brute Force 4 Navigation in a Small World 5 Bursty Structure in Streams Outline 1 Nevanlinna Prize for Jon Kleinberg History of Nevanlinna Prize Who is Jon Kleinberg 2 Hubs and Authorities 2 / 43 4 Navigation in a Small World 5 Bursty Structure in Streams Outline 1 Nevanlinna Prize for Jon Kleinberg History of Nevanlinna Prize Who is Jon Kleinberg 2 Hubs and Authorities 3 Nearest Neighbors: Faster Than Brute Force 2 / 43 5 Bursty Structure in Streams Outline 1 Nevanlinna Prize for Jon Kleinberg History of Nevanlinna Prize Who is Jon Kleinberg 2 Hubs and Authorities 3 Nearest Neighbors: Faster Than Brute Force 4 Navigation in a Small World 2 / 43 Outline 1 Nevanlinna Prize for Jon Kleinberg History of Nevanlinna Prize Who is Jon Kleinberg 2 Hubs and Authorities 3 Nearest Neighbors: Faster Than Brute Force 4 Navigation in a Small World 5 Bursty Structure in Streams 2 / 43 Part I History of Nevanlinna Prize Career of Jon Kleinberg 3 / 43 Nevanlinna Prize The Rolf Nevanlinna Prize is awarded once every 4 years at the International Congress of Mathematicians, for outstanding contributions in Mathematical Aspects of Information Sciences including: 1 All mathematical aspects of computer science, including complexity theory, logic of programming languages, analysis of algorithms, cryptography, computer vision, pattern recognition, information processing and modelling of intelligence. -
Josiah Willard Gibbs
GENERAL ARTICLE Josiah Willard Gibbs V Kumaran The foundations of classical thermodynamics, as taught in V Kumaran is a professor textbooks today, were laid down in nearly complete form by of chemical engineering at the Indian Institute of Josiah Willard Gibbs more than a century ago. This article Science, Bangalore. His presentsaportraitofGibbs,aquietandmodestmanwhowas research interests include responsible for some of the most important advances in the statistical mechanics and history of science. fluid mechanics. Thermodynamics, the science of the interconversion of heat and work, originated from the necessity of designing efficient engines in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Engines are machines that convert heat energy obtained by combustion of coal, wood or other types of fuel into useful work for running trains, ships, etc. The efficiency of an engine is determined by the amount of useful work obtained for a given amount of heat input. There are two laws related to the efficiency of an engine. The first law of thermodynamics states that heat and work are inter-convertible, and it is not possible to obtain more work than the amount of heat input into the machine. The formulation of this law can be traced back to the work of Leibniz, Dalton, Joule, Clausius, and a host of other scientists in the late 17th and early 18th century. The more subtle second law of thermodynamics states that it is not possible to convert all heat into work; all engines have to ‘waste’ some of the heat input by transferring it to a heat sink. The second law also established the minimum amount of heat that has to be wasted based on the absolute temperatures of the heat source and the heat sink. -
Navigability of Small World Networks
Navigability of Small World Networks Pierre Fraigniaud CNRS and University Paris Sud http://www.lri.fr/~pierre Introduction Interaction Networks • Communication networks – Internet – Ad hoc and sensor networks • Societal networks – The Web – P2P networks (the unstructured ones) • Social network – Acquaintance – Mail exchanges • Biology (Interactome network), linguistics, etc. Dec. 19, 2006 HiPC'06 3 Common statistical properties • Low density • “Small world” properties: – Average distance between two nodes is small, typically O(log n) – The probability p that two distinct neighbors u1 and u2 of a same node v are neighbors is large. p = clustering coefficient • “Scale free” properties: – Heavy tailed probability distributions (e.g., of the degrees) Dec. 19, 2006 HiPC'06 4 Gaussian vs. Heavy tail Example : human sizes Example : salaries µ Dec. 19, 2006 HiPC'06 5 Power law loglog ppk prob{prob{ X=kX=k }} ≈≈ kk-α loglog kk Dec. 19, 2006 HiPC'06 6 Random graphs vs. Interaction networks • Random graphs: prob{e exists} ≈ log(n)/n – low clustering coefficient – Gaussian distribution of the degrees • Interaction networks – High clustering coefficient – Heavy tailed distribution of the degrees Dec. 19, 2006 HiPC'06 7 New problematic • Why these networks share these properties? • What model for – Performance analysis of these networks – Algorithm design for these networks • Impact of the measures? • This lecture addresses navigability Dec. 19, 2006 HiPC'06 8 Navigability Milgram Experiment • Source person s (e.g., in Wichita) • Target person t (e.g., in Cambridge) – Name, professional occupation, city of living, etc. • Letter transmitted via a chain of individuals related on a personal basis • Result: “six degrees of separation” Dec. -
A Decade of Lattice Cryptography
Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0400000074 A Decade of Lattice Cryptography Chris Peikert Computer Science and Engineering University of Michigan, United States Boston — Delft Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0400000074 Foundations and Trends R in Theoretical Computer Science Published, sold and distributed by: now Publishers Inc. PO Box 1024 Hanover, MA 02339 United States Tel. +1-781-985-4510 www.nowpublishers.com [email protected] Outside North America: now Publishers Inc. PO Box 179 2600 AD Delft The Netherlands Tel. +31-6-51115274 The preferred citation for this publication is C. Peikert. A Decade of Lattice Cryptography. Foundations and Trends R in Theoretical Computer Science, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 283–424, 2014. R This Foundations and Trends issue was typeset in LATEX using a class file designed by Neal Parikh. Printed on acid-free paper. ISBN: 978-1-68083-113-9 c 2016 C. Peikert All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission of the publishers. Photocopying. In the USA: This journal is registered at the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923. Authorization to photocopy items for in- ternal or personal use, or the internal or personal use of specific clients, is granted by now Publishers Inc for users registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC). The ‘services’ for users can be found on the internet at: www.copyright.com For those organizations that have been granted a photocopy license, a separate system of payment has been arranged. -
Constraint Based Dimension Correlation and Distance
Preface The papers in this volume were presented at the Fourteenth Annual IEEE Conference on Computational Complexity held from May 4-6, 1999 in Atlanta, Georgia, in conjunction with the Federated Computing Research Conference. This conference was sponsored by the IEEE Computer Society Technical Committee on Mathematical Foundations of Computing, in cooperation with the ACM SIGACT (The special interest group on Algorithms and Complexity Theory) and EATCS (The European Association for Theoretical Computer Science). The call for papers sought original research papers in all areas of computational complexity. A total of 70 papers were submitted for consideration of which 28 papers were accepted for the conference and for inclusion in these proceedings. Six of these papers were accepted to a joint STOC/Complexity session. For these papers the full conference paper appears in the STOC proceedings and a one-page summary appears in these proceedings. The program committee invited two distinguished researchers in computational complexity - Avi Wigderson and Jin-Yi Cai - to present invited talks. These proceedings contain survey articles based on their talks. The program committee thanks Pradyut Shah and Marcus Schaefer for their organizational and computer help, Steve Tate and the SIGACT Electronic Publishing Board for the use and help of the electronic submissions server, Peter Shor and Mike Saks for the electronic conference meeting software and Danielle Martin of the IEEE for editing this volume. The committee would also like to thank the following people for their help in reviewing the papers: E. Allender, V. Arvind, M. Ajtai, A. Ambainis, G. Barequet, S. Baumer, A. Berthiaume, S. -
Inter Actions Department of Physics 2015
INTER ACTIONS DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS 2015 The Department of Physics has a very accomplished family of alumni. In this issue we begin to recognize just a few of them with stories submitted by graduates from each of the decades since 1950. We want to invite all of you to renew and strengthen your ties to our department. We would love to hear from you, telling us what you are doing and commenting on how the department has helped in your career and life. Alumna returns to the Physics Department to Implement New MCS Core Education When I heard that the Department of Physics needed a hand implementing the new MCS Core Curriculum, I couldn’t imagine a better fit. Not only did it provide an opportunity to return to my hometown, but Carnegie Mellon itself had been a fixture in my life for many years, from taking classes as a high school student to teaching after graduation. I was thrilled to have the chance to return. I graduated from Carnegie Mellon in 2008, with a B.S. in physics and a B.A. in Japanese. Afterwards, I continued to teach at CMARC’s Summer Academy for Math and Science during the summers while studying down the street at the University of Pittsburgh. In 2010, I earned my M.A. in East Asian Studies there based on my research into how cultural differences between Japan and America have helped shape their respective robotics industries. After receiving my master’s degree and spending a summer studying in Japan, I taught for Kaplan as graduate faculty for a year before joining the Department of Physics at Cornell University. -
Probabilistic Models on Fibre Bundles by Shan Shan
Probabilistic Models on Fibre Bundles by Shan Shan Department of Mathematics Duke University Date: Approved: Ingrid Daubechies, Supervisor Sayan Mukherjee, Chair Doug Boyer Colleen Robles Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Mathematics in the Graduate School of Duke University 2019 ABSTRACT Probabilistic Models on Fibre Bundles by Shan Shan Department of Mathematics Duke University Date: Approved: Ingrid Daubechies, Supervisor Sayan Mukherjee, Chair Doug Boyer Colleen Robles An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Mathematics in the Graduate School of Duke University 2019 Copyright c 2019 by Shan Shan All rights reserved Abstract In this thesis, we propose probabilistic models on fibre bundles for learning the gen- erative process of data. The main tool we use is the diffusion kernel and we use it in two ways. First, we build from the diffusion kernel on a fibre bundle a projected kernel that generates robust representations of the data, and we test that it outperforms regular diffusion maps under noise. Second, this diffusion kernel gives rise to a nat- ural covariance function when defining Gaussian processes (GP) on the fibre bundle. To demonstrate the uses of GP on a fibre bundle, we apply it to simulated data on a M¨obiusstrip for the problem of prediction and regression. Parameter tuning can also be guided by a novel semi-group test arising from the geometric properties of dif- fusion kernel. For an example of real-world application, we use probabilistic models on fibre bundles to study evolutionary process on anatomical surfaces.