United Nations Economic Commission for Developing a transboundary adaptation strategy in the Neman basin in Europe

Vladimir Korneev Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR) Republic of

Lithuania Environmental Protection Agency Transboundary adaptation strategy for the Neman River Basin developed within Project “Management of the Neman River Basin with Account of Adaptation to Climate Change”. This project was a part of the UNECE Program of pilot projects on adaptation to climate change in transboundary river basins. It was implemented with assistance of the Environment and Security International Initiative (ENVSEC) and United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in the Republic of Belarus.

Most important results of the of the ECE/UNDP/ENVSEC Neman pilot project (examples and good practices) A. Evaluation of changes of meteorological parameters for the entire Neman River Basin. The exchange of data and commonly agreed climate scenarios between the countries took place and a common data base was used; B. Assessment and forecast of runoff for the entire Neman River Basin with use of Lithuanian and Belarusian models - when developing integrated climate and hydrological forecasting models for the Neman River Basin, there has been a strong emphasis on data and modelling harmonization; C. Agreed indicators of water bodies status, assessment of water quality with using agreed indicators and criteria; D. Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water quality; E. Proposals to optimize the monitoring systems with account of climate change; F. An Internet-based common information platform was developed and installed, containing meteorological and hydrological data and thematic maps with future climate and runoff scenarios (http://www.cricuwr.by/neman/); G. Vulnerability assessment of the expected impacts of climate change in the Neman river basin and development of the adaptation measures Air temperature and precipitation change forecasts (up to 2050) A using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (according to IPCC – 2013) and A1B and B1 scenarios (according to IPCC – 2007)

Temperature Scenarios

CMIP5 RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 Precipitation

CCLM A1B B1 B Runoff projections Multi-model maps with runoff forecast until 2050 Annual Two different hydrological models were used for the purpose to foreseen runoff changes: Lithuanian side used WatBal model; Belarusian side used hydrology-climatic calculations model (HCCM) based on the joint solution of the equations of water and heat-energy balances

Winter Summer B Modeling results show that forecasted runoff changes in the near term future are very similar with observed during the last 50 years.  Mean annual runoff will increase insignificantly (decrease in Belarusian part and increase in Lithuanian part of the basin is very likely).  The projected maximum spring flood runoff will decrease in the majority of Neman basin. The decrease of maximum monthly runoff is likely to be related to warmer winters with more frequent thaws. The earlier start of spring flood is also very likely. As the consequence inundation risk will generally decrease in the major part of the basin.  Minimum winter flow will increase. It can be related to the earlier start of spring, increased winter precipitation and increased frequency of thaws.  Predicted summer changes are insignificant in the large part of the basin. Increase in northern part and slight decrease in the southern part of the basin is modeled.  Drought probability can increase in the second part of warm period of year. B

It was determined that the impact of climate change will be more important for runoff in the Neman River Basin in comparison with forecasted impact of water use changes Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the D water quality at the highest generalization level Assessment of projected climate change impacts on dissolved oxigen concentration in summer in the Neman River Basin (A1B - scenario, progected in 2021–2050 to compare with 1965-2010) Neman - Neman - Stolbcy Vilia - Vileyka Schara - (upstream) (upstream) (upstream) (upstream) lake Naroch - Naroch 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 -0.30 -0.35

change, mg/l change, -0.40 -0.45 DO (based on observed data and statistical analysis), mg/l -0.50 DO mg/l, (Weiss) -0.55 DO, mg/l, (Benson and Krause) -0.60 DO, mg/l, (Garcia and Gordon) -0.65 Average decrease of dissolved oxygen content in surface water in summer forecasted as 0.25 mg/l in Belarus due to climate change. It is comparable with forecast for (Paul Buijs) Increase of mineralization estimated on 3-10% Correlation with water temperature and other WQPs were not found take into account climate change because other factors more significant Possible increase of nutrient and hydrobiological characteristics deterioration because of dissolved oxygen content decrease E Analysis of the monitoring systems in the Neman River Basin and elaboration of proposals to optimize the systems with account of climate change

Summary of proposed intervention for the upgrade and expansion of the Neman RB Hydro- meteorological monitoring and Early Warning system (Giovanni Crema and Inna Rusaya) Development of the common information platform (Internet F database), containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the Neman River basin countries.

http://www.cricuwr.by/neman/ G

Vulnerability assessment of the expected impacts of climate change in the Neman river basin and development of the adaptation measures

Impact (probability) low + medium (vulnerable) high + Vulnerability Impact consequences not very significant + + low medium medium Multi-stakeholder significant - high seminars in Belarus, Adaptation potential + Lithuania and low medium region high ()

G Vulnerability assessment of the expected impacts of climate change Links to the National Policies and Strategies

The priority of climate change studies is stipulated in the National Strategy of Sustainable Socio-Economic Development in the Republic of Belarus until 2020. The climate change issues are also dealt with in the Water Strategy of the Republic of Belarus until 2020. The National Strategy of Lithuania on Adaptation to Climate Change until 2050 defines basic principles and adaptation goals, including short-term (until 2020), medium-term (until 2030) and long-term (until 2050) goals. The main Federal-level ecological policy tools of the Russian Federation in the field of climate change adaptation include Water Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020, Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation and Comprehensive Plan for Implementing it until 2020. Principal provision of the Regional Climate Strategy of – strategy of adaptation to climate change – have been formulated in 2014. Overview of Measures within the Framework of Strategies of Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin (basin level)

Total Group of Description of measures estimate measures d cost Signing an international agreement on the Neman - River Basin Setting up and functioning of an International Direct € actions at Commission for the Neman River Basin. the basin Development of the overall Neman River Basin € level Management Plan Evaluation of status of ground waters and their €€ vulnerability to climate change

€- up to 100 ths €; €€- up to 1 mln €; €€€- from 1 to 10 mln €; €€€€- over 10 mln € Overview of Measures within the Framework of Strategies of Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin (basin level) Total Group of Description of measures estimate measures d cost Improvement of the meteorological and hydrological monitoring network (setting new automatic stations and €€ computerization of existing ones) Improvement of the Schemes of Complex Use of Water Resources (SCUWR) of the Neman River Basin (Belarus, Actions €€ to more Kaliningrad Oblast) and Water Resources Management Plan fully (WRMP) (Lithuania) consider Development of water supply and sanitation systems and €€€€ interests improvement of economic mechanisms in this field of the Improvement of the hydro power plants (HPP) engineering, basin construction and operation, information exchange and early €€€ warning systems considering the estimated changes in hydrological regime at the basin level. Improvement of flood risk management and flood protection €€€ works €- up to 100 ths €; €€- up to 1 mln €; €€€- from 1 to 10 mln €; €€€€- over 10 mln € Overview of Measures within the Framework of Strategies of Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin (national and regional level having importance on basin level)

Total Group of Description of measures estimated measures cost Implementation of SCUWR and WRMP measures €€€€ Development of generating capacities using renewable energy sources (evaluation of potential for cost-effective utilization of €€€ renewable energy sources and measures stimulating their further propagation) Actions at the Improvement of project engineering and construction national technology for roads and transport infrastructure. €€€€ and Improvement of the existing communication network regional Improvement of water use and farming technologies in the €€€ levels context of the climate change Improvement, development and maintenance of the €€€ recreational infrastructure Improvement of monitoring and assessment of water €€ resources quality €- up to 100 ths €; €€- up to 1 mln €; €€€- from 1 to 10 mln €; €€€€- over 10 mln € Estimated resources needed for implementation of identified adaptation measures in the Neman River Basin (NRB) for 3 countries are approximately 290 million USD, including financing from state and local budgets, state and regional programs, funds of enterprises – cca 90%; and international funds and projects – cca 10%. It is reasonable to introduce adaptation strategies and measures to implement them in the course of elaboration of forecasts, plans and socio-economic development programs. This integration process is intensified most during the development and implementation of pilot climate change adaptation projects at the regional level and also during improvement and preparation of the following documents: Schemes of Complex Use of Water Resources (SCUWR) of the NRB, in the future – NRB Management Plan ( territory of the Republic of Belarus); NRB Management Plan (Republic of Lithuania); Complex Schemes of Water Bodies Use and Protection of the NRB and River Basin (Russian part in Kaliningrad Oblast). The above documents should be supplemented by a Management Plan, being common for the Neman River Basin states, which is to be developed and implemented. The signing of an International Agreement (Technical Protocol on Cooperation) on the Neman River Basin and setting up of an International Commission as well as Common River Basin Management Plan for the entire NRB would provide an important additional practical mechanism for implementing the strategies and stakeholders engagement. Thank you for attention

The Neman river near Grodno (photo of Paul Buijs)