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1 Bihar Assembly Elections 2020: an Analysis Mudit Kapoor1 And Bihar Assembly Elections 2020: An analysis Mudit Kapoor1 and Shamika Ravi2 Abstract We analyze the Bihar assembly elections 2020, and find that poverty was the key driving factor, over and above female voters as determinants. The results show that the poor were more likely to support the NDA. The relevance of this result for an election held in the midst of a pandemic, is very crucial, given that the poor were the hardest hit. Secondly, in contrast to conventional commentary, the empirical results show that the ‘AIMIM factor’ and the ‘LJP factor’ hurt the NDA while benefitting the MGB, with their presence in these elections. The methodological novelty in this paper is combining elections data with wealth index data to study the effect of poverty on elections outcomes. JEL Keywords: poverty, elections, Bihar 1. Introduction Bihar assembly elections were an important litmus test for the policies of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)3 particularly in the aftermath of the socio-economic upheaval caused by COVID– 19. Unfortunately, the poor have had to face a disproportionately higher brunt of the crisis. The results in favor of the NDA came as a surprise (it was counter to what majority of the exit polls had predicted) primarily due to the following factors, first and foremost, the anti-incumbency; second, the humanitarian and economic crisis precipitated by COVID–19; and third, to a limited extent, a spirited campaign, centered around jobs and unemployment, led by the leader of Rahstriya Janta Dal (RJD), the leading party of the Maha Gath Bandan (MGB)4. Political experts while 1 Associate Professor, Economics, ISI, Delhi, [email protected] 2 Non-resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, [email protected] 3 NDA alliance included Janta dal (United) (JDU), Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAMS). 4 MGB alliance included Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Indian National Congress (INC), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM), and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) (CPIML). 1 attempting to explain NDA’s surprising victory over MGB have focused primarily on two classes of voters; (i) women voters, who recalling the misrule of the RJD, favored the NDA, and (ii) the Muslim vote which was diverted away from the MGB by parties such as All India Majlis-E- Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). In this paper we perform an exploratory data analysis to isolate factors that have determined outcome in these elections. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to explore relationship between poverty and election outcomes. Methodologically the innovation in the study is to combine datasets across different sources for detailed analysis. In particular, we look at the following factors as determinants of election outcomes: (a) Sex ratio of the electorate (female per 1000 male electors): this is an important determinant given earlier studies which have established the significant role of female voters as agents of change in Bihar elections.5 (b) Proportion of the poorest households within a state in the district in which the constituency is located: these elections were held in the midst of a pandemic which has seen greatest suffering among the poorest people in the population, we want to isolate the relationship between poverty and election outcomes. (c) Proportion of general caste households in the district in which the constituency is located: given the significant role of caste in Indian elections, this is an obvious line of enquiry for Bihar elections. (d) Proportion of Muslim population in the district in which the constituency is located: this is an important line of enquiry given the belief that Muslims are a distinct electoral demography.6 (e) AIMIM factor – we analyze this to identify the effect it might have on performance of other political parties in these elections. (f) LJP factor – we analyze this to identify the effect it might have on performance of other political parties in these elections. 5 ‘Women voters can tip the scales in Bihar’, The Hindu: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/women-voters- can-tip-the-scales-in-bihar/article7470851.ece 6 Maqbool Ahmed Siraj (1986) Electoral demography of Indian Muslims, Institute of Muslim Minority Affairs. Journal, 7:2, 557-603, DOI: 10.1080/13602008608716003 2 2. Data Source and Covariates A novelty in this paper is that we combine data from different sources to analyze election outcomes. In particular, we combine data from Election Commission of India (ECI) and National Family Health Survey (NFHS). Our main source of data on 243 assembly constituencies in the Bihar general assembly election in 2020 is from the ECI which provides data at the assembly constituency level on the candidates that contested, the number of votes secured by each candidate, and the political party each candidate is affiliated with. If a candidate is not affiliated to a political party then the candidate is classified as independent. In addition to the election results we use data from the 2015 Bihar general assembly election from the ECI to compute the sex ratio of the electorate (female per 1000 male electors) at the constituency level. We then classify the constituencies into three groups, (i.e. sex ratio of the electorate, <861, 861 to 886, and ≥886). Next, we use household data from the National Family Health Survey, round 4 (NFHS IV), which was conducted in 2015–2016. The advantage of the NFHS IV dataset was that the sample size was large enough to construct socio-economic indicators at the district level. First, we construct data on proportion of poorest households in a district using the wealth index. The wealth index was constructed by assigning a score to each household, which was based on ownership of consumer goods such as television, bicycle, car, etc., characteristics of house, such as source of drinking water, toilet facilities, material used for floors, and walls, etc. The scores are assigned using a principal component analysis. Households are then ranked based on the score and divided into five equal categories (quintiles), and the households in the lowest quintile were classified as the poorest. Then for each of the 38 districts in Bihar we construct the proportion of poorest households. Next, we classify districts intro three equal groups based on the proportion of the poorest households (<15.5%, 15.5% to 25.5%, ≥25.5%). Second, the NFHS IV household data also identifies the religion and the caste (which are classified into other backward class, scheduled caste, and scheduled tribe) of the head of household. If the household head states her or his religion as Muslim then the household is classified as a Muslim household. We classify the household as belonging to general category if the head of the household 3 does not belong to either of the caste category (other backward class, scheduled caste, scheduled tribe). Then for each district we construct the proportion of Muslim households, and classify them into three equal groups (i.e. proportion of Muslim households, <8.6%, 8.6% to 15.33%, ≥15.33%). Similarly, we classify each district into three equal groups by the proportion of general category households (i.e. proportion of general category households, <14.5%, 14.5% to 19.6%, ≥19.6%). Third, we classify districts into three equal groups based on proportion of households residing in rural areas (i.e., <86.6%, 86.6% to 92.3%, ≥92.3%). We then classify each constituency as belonging to one of the groups in terms of proportion of poorest households, proportion of Muslim and general caste households, and proportion of households residing in rural areas, depending on the districts in which the constituency is located. In addition, we use the data from the ECI, to construct a dummy variable which takes a value one if AIMIM contested the election in that constituency and zero otherwise, similarly we construct a dummy variable which takes a value one if LJP contested the election in that constituency and zero otherwise. 3. Results The first set of results – summary statistics - are reported in table 1. There were 243 assembly constituencies, where elections were held in Bihar. The contest was primarily between the NDA7 and the MGB8. In terms of the total seats the NDA won in 125 out of the total 243 assembly constituencies while the MGB won 110 assembly constituencies. However, in terms of the total votes, the NDA received 15,701,226 (37.3%) out of the total votes 42,137,620 that were cast, while the MGB received 15,688,458 (37.2%) of the total votes, a difference of 12,768 votes. The results suggest a high degree of variance in the performance of individual political parties. For example, the BJP of the NDA had the best strike rate (seats won as a proportion of seats contested) 7 (NDA alliance included Janta dal (United) (JDU), Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAMS)) 8 (MGB alliance included Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Indian National Congress (INC), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM), and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) (CPI (ML) (L))). 4 of 67.3%, while INC of the MGB had the worst strike rate of 27.1%. In terms of the percentage of votes received by a political party across the constituencies that they contested in, the BJP received 42.6% of the votes while RJD received 38.9% of the votes. For our next set of results, we construct three variables at the level of the alliance (NDA and MGB) and the political parties (JDU, BJP, RJD, and INC): (a) total seats contested, (b) total seats won, and (c) strike rate, which is the ratio of seats won to seats contested and relate their performance to the factors considered (see table 2b).
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