Büro London The Chandlery Office 609 Blickpunkt Großbritannien 50 Westminster Bridge Road GB London SE1 7QY Tel 00 44 20 77 21 87 45 Fax 00 44 20 77 21 87 46 www.feslondon.org.uk

October 2006

Voted out of office – The surprising result of the election in in 2006

Austria's Social-Democratic Party SPÖ won a surprise victory at the country's national election on 1st October 2006. During the electoral campaign the party managed to turn strong ini- tial disadvantages into a narrow majority over the conserva- tive ÖVP. The next government will be a grand coalition led by SPÖ-Chairman Alfred Gusenbauer.

Karl A. Duffek

The initial scenario especially among young people (where it almost doubled between 2000 and 2005), Back in 2002, early elections had been low growth rates and low levels of public brought forward after the Federal Chancel- investment, and an amazing lack of activity lor, Wolfgang Schüssel (of the ÖVP, the in the field of education policy following the Austrian People's Party) had terminated the poor results of the PISA Study were all fac- alliance with his coalition partners, Jörg tors which tarnished the image of the con- Haider's FPÖ. His gamble produced the servative/right-wing populist coalition. desired effect: Gains of about 15% put him clearly ahead, with the Social Democrats As a result, at the beginning of 2006 the well back in second position, while the FPÖ SPÖ was three to five percentage points incurred considerable losses. Schüssel ahead in all the polls. Then however, a fi- formed a new government with the FPÖ, nancial scandal caused the BAWAG Bank, which, after a split in the FPÖ, admittedly which belonged to the trade unions, enor- became increasingly a government led mous damage and brought the Union Con- solely by the Conservatives. Schüssel suc- gress as proprietor to the edge of ruin. The ceeded in holding together his precarious great majority of the acting persons in- coalition through to the end of the legisla- volved were Social Democrats or at least tive period, although after a half-hearted close to the SPÖ. attempt at pension reforms which would have put a one-sided burden on employ- ees, no important political projects were Karl Duffek is Director of the Renner Insti- turned into legislation in the last two years tute, the political academy of the SPÖ in Vi- of the government. Rising unemployment, enna

Blickpunkt Großbritannien Seite 2

The election result and its rea- Resignations, court cases and conflicts be- sons tween the party and the unions became the order of the day in late spring. The Social The result of the 2006 election was clear: Democrats' image of economic competency the ÖVP was voted out of office. A loss of and their approval rates began to founder. eight percentage points, equivalent to an absolute figure of 460,000 votes, is a very definite result. The reasons, however, are The Election Campaign diverse.

In the summer of 2006 the election strate- For a start, ÖVP's feel-good campaign be- gies of the political parties mirrored their gan to go wrong at the latest when the situations: problems of care for the elderly came to the The ÖVP put its hope on the sovereignty of fore after it was revealed that Wolfgang its Chancellor – especially since his term as Schüssel's mother-in-law was being looked EU President had come to an end without after by an illegally employed care worker – any major problems – avoiding much public and Schüssel's reaction was very clumsy: exposure, preferring to emphasize the he attempted to avoid talking about the country's positive development. At the problem of care for the elderly in general same time they operated a pre-election and then suggested in a singularly unwise strategy via intermediary organisations and remark that his in-laws' affairs were hardly a other subsidiary channels aiming to dis- matter which need concern him. credit Alfred Gusenbauer, the SPÖ leader and to attack the party over the bank scan- Suddenly, the contest was not about dal. whether Schüssel or Gusenbauer would be the better Chancellor, but about the ques- As the challenger, the SPÖ naturally placed tion of which party took which topic serious. emphasis on attacking the government, The campaign had shifted from a personal- while also concentrating on a consistent ity-led one to a topic-led one, which was topic-based election campaign centred on just what the Social Democrats wanted. the fairer distribution of wealth. Education, health, pensions and unemployment were Secondly, the ÖVP misinterpreted from the given priority in the election campaign. At outset the mood of the voters. The desire the same time, efforts were made to maxi- for a change was admittedly fairly luke- mise the public appearances of the party warm, but at the same time, a considerable leader. Even before the election campaign majority was of the opinion that they had proper had begun, Gusenbauer was visiting personally not profited from the passable all the districts of the country in order to economic data. Clearly, the message on contrast his popular touch to the aloofness the ÖVP's election posters, "Hier geht’s uns of the Chancellor. gut" (we're doing alright here) did not meet its mark. The Greens initially presented some very interesting proposals, but then returned to Thirdly, the bank and union scandal, after their characteristic role of the contemplative the lapse of a few months, was no longer alternative party not used to engaging in such a hot potato as it had seemed and the controversial topics. The right wing populist willingness – revealed only at the last min- parties BZÖ and FPÖ focused their cam- ute – of the Chancellor and his finance min- paigns exclusively on matters relating to ister to accept international invitations from foreigners and immigration – taking advan- the prime speculators shifted the focus of tage of weaknesses of the other parties po- the scandal and prevented it from being sitions, though often going beyond the seen as uniquely of the responsibility of the bounds of what is acceptable in a civilised SPÖ. democracy.

Blickpunkt Großbritannien Seite 3

Fourthly, Alfred Gusenbauer managed, in 2.8 percentage points), the Social Democ- his TV appearances, to present himself as rats are fighting increasingly on two fronts, an equal opponent of the governing Chan- caught between an increasingly popular cellor. In direct confrontations between the Green Party and the far right. The fact that two men, Gusenbauer was a model of calm the conservatives experienced something and equilibrium in contrast to the below-the- similar this time, though in far more dra- belt attacks from his opponent. matic form, is no consolation.

Fifthly, many of the votes won in 2002 by the ÖVP were "loan votes". They returned The way ahead to the right-wing populist parties which – together – gained an increase of over five The unexpected outcome led to such a percentage points. shock within the ÖVP that initially, the party seemed unwilling to negotiate about the Sixthly, the expectation of a sure election only realistic consequence of the election victory may have also dampened the mobi- result, a grand coalition. Despite comments lisation of the ÖVP clientele. A drop in voter from some conservative quarters, the public turn-out of 5.8% speaks volumes in this re- would seem to have little understanding for spect. Hardly anyone was expecting a lead that sort of talk. The public expects respect for the SPÖ; even the most optimistic polls to be shown for an election result which is for the party predicted not more than a as it is. And support in the polls for Alfred close race. Gusenbauer as the legitimate is growing rapidly. That means that even having won the elec- tion, the SPÖ also lost around 130,000 vot- The SPÖ is still reacting with emphatically ers, primarily as non-voters, but some of conciliatory signals and is now urging for them to the right-wing populists. It is worth negotiations about policy. A grand coalition taking a look at a detailed analysis of this is the option favoured by two-thirds of all development. With a total of around 15% of , though there is still a lingering the vote, the right-wing populist parties re- feeling that such alliances lead to standstill, main a political force in Austria which needs isolation and disputes. The recently ended to be taken seriously, be it with or without legislative period has shown, however, that Jörg Haider. In other words, this is not only a small coalition can lead to the same prob- a question of political charisma, but also of lems. political agenda: Especially in the urban ar- eas (in Vienna the SPÖ had to concede

Unofficial final result of the general election in Austria on October 1, 2006

in % seats 2006 2002 2006 2002

Voter participation 78.5 84.3

SPÖ 35.3 36.5 68 69 ÖVP 34.3 42.3 66 79 GREENS 11.0 9.5 21 17 FPÖ 11.0 10.0 21 18 BZÖ 4.1 - 7

Blickpunkt Großbritannien Seite 4