Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad

February 2013 Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a joint initiative between Grayling and the Institute of Welsh Affairs. Every month we aim to bring you the ABC of Welsh politics. For information on ABC, please con- On the agenda this tact: [email protected] or [email protected] month: Welsh language standards rejected New law on equal representation?

Plaid Cymru Leader, AM, has suggested that new legislation may be Articles needed to achieve the aim of equal repre- sentation of women in the National Assem- Welsh language standards bly for , in response to a call from rejected Presiding Officer Rosemary Butler AM, to ensure more women are elected.

New law on equal In a letter to Ms Butler, the South Wales representation? Welsh Language society Cymdeithas yr Central AM, and the first female leader of Iaith Gymraeg has criticised the announce- , claimed that measures to ment by Education Minister Leighton An- select female candidates in her own party Time to get your drews AM that proposed Welsh Language "are not always at their strongest" and that submissions in… Silk Part Standards, put forward by Welsh Language the National Assembly should “take action Two Commissioner Meri Huws, are to be reject- to ensure that political parties contesting ed. The proposals were described as elections have a duty to reflect the gender

“unreasonable” and “unnecessarily com- balance of the Welsh nation across their Who’d want to a be a plex” by Mr Andrews, who added that they range of prospective candidates.” Any leg- Health Minister? “would not provide Welsh speakers with islation would at present need to be set at a Objections rumble on clear rights.” Westminster level, which has led Ms Wood to comment that a “consensus” between

The proposed standards would oblige the the parties will need to struck. Where Welsh left could public sector and some private companies meet Welsh right The calls come against the backdrop of a in Wales to provide Welsh language ser- declining percentage of female representa- vices, and formed the centrepiece of the tion in the , from 52% in 2006, to Welsh Language Measure, passed by the 44% currently. Despite this decrease, the Event National Assembly in 2011. Cymdeithas yr National Assembly still reflect favourable Iaith Gymraeg said that the Education Min- proportionality compared to other devolved The second wave in Welsh isters dismissal was “bad news” and ac- nations across the UK, such as Scotland at cused the Minister of siding with the 34% and the UK Parliament at 22%. school improvement “interests of organisations and the profit of large companies”, an accusation that the Minister firmly denies. However, speaking Making Wales Competitive to BBC Radio Wales, John Walter Jones, - IWA National Economy former chief executive of the Welsh Lan- Conference 2013 guage Board, suggested that promotion of the language remained more important than regulations, adding "What we want to gar- ner is the support of the non Welsh speaker and I don't think that by going down the route of legislation and the 'thou shalt' ap- proach are we going to get them on board."

Time to get your submissions in… Silk Part Two

With the deadline for submissions of evidence to part two of the Silk Commission drawing near, both the and Plaid Cymru have set out their plans for what they would like the future organisation of power in Wales to look like. The Welsh Government, in a nod to arrangements in Scotland, has called for a move to a ‘reserved powers’ model, whereby any matter not specifically reserved to Westminster falls within the competence of the National Assembly. Welsh Government Counsel General, Theodore Huckle, urged for the ‘reserved powers’ model following the rulings in the over the Local Government Byelaws (Wales) Act, after a constitutional power tussle ensued over the legal competence relating to the Act. First Minister, AM, described his Government’s proposals as “a settlement that is both simpler and clearer than the present arrangements.” The Welsh Government submission also promotes the devolution of powers over the consenting of large scale energy and related infrastructure, with the exception of nuclear, to the National Assembly, claiming it would lead a more accountable and locally led decision process.

More controversially, the submission calls for the devolution of policing “in order to strengthen joint working with devolved services and reduce offending.” The level of support from Mr Jones’ party colleagues at Westminster for the devolution of policing appears to be lukewarm, howev- er. Although Carwyn Jones AM has said the submission was by a “ Government”, fellow Welsh Labour member and shadow policing Minister, David Hanson MP, told BBC Radio Wales: “There are some really complex issues around this in relation to serious organised crime, counterterrorism, the legal system, justice, probation, which need to be examined in very great detail before such a major step would even be considered to be taken", suggesting that the issue of devolving the police service was not one wholly adopted by the Welsh Labour Party at this time.

Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru’s submission seeks not just an increase in power for the National Assembly, but makes it clear that power should be devolved “without undue delay”. The call follows criticism of the Welsh Government’s position by a Plaid Cymru spokesperson, in a press release, as “a slow lane approach that would still leave the major levers of power at Westminster”. In addition to a reserved powers model, as proposed by the First Minister, Plaid Cymru calls for the establishment of a separate legal jurisdiction for Wales, com- plemented by the devolution of the justice system, including police, prisons and probation. It claims this would “create a coherent and workable system of devolved justice.” The submission also outlines proposals for the devolution of the civil service, as is the case in Northern Ireland. Accountable to the National Assembly, a devolved civil service would “drive closer co-operation between public sector organisations and spread best practice” according to Plaid Cymru.

The Silk Commission will report on Part Two in Spring 2014.

Who’d want to a be a Health Minister? Objections rumble on

It has been a busy month for Health Minister AM, as cuts to the health budget begin to disseminate down to local level and the reality of the reconfigured services has reaches the general public. There have been widespread objections against proposed changes, with public protests breaking out across the country, from Llandudno to Caerphilly.

The main crux of the opposition revolves around the health board plans for change. Plans submitted by Hywel Dda Health Board for health services in Mid and West Wales have been referred to the Welsh Gov- ernment, following their rejection by the region’s Community Health Council, which consists of local councillors and healthcare profession- als.

Whilst plans in Mid and West Wales have been passed to the Welsh Government, re-organisation in North Wales has gained Community Health Council approval, despite the vocal opposition locally. Resistance to change has centred on the removal of neonatal services from Glan Clwyd Hospital, which will result in patients requiring the specialist service to travel across the border to England. Cllr Huw Edwards, a member of the Community Health Council, claimed the move was “despicable” and subsequently resigned his position on the Council. The move in North Wales led Welsh Conservative Shadow Minister for Health, AM, to claim in a press release that the “NHS in Wales is home to an unacceptable democratic deficit” and that the “current process is flawed” given that communities “voiced their opposition”.

Recent ambulance response times have provided some positive news for the Health Minister, although perhaps with a pinch of salt. Response times were up from previous months, but as a whole response times failed to meet targets and were down when compared to figures released in January last year. AM, leader of the , pointed to what she called the "unacceptable postcode lottery" of ambulance service and that it came as “no real surprise” that targets had been missed for an eighth consecutive month.

Responding to criticisim of his Government head on, First Minister Carwyn Jones AM claimed, on the Sunday Politics show, that the reconfigu- ration was essential and that the NHS in Wales “would collapse otherwise”. He added that his Government’s plans were aiming at, and will provide, a “safe and sustainable health service.” But with a recent BBC Wales poll suggesting that three quarters of people want district general hospitals to keep the current range of services, the First Minister and his Health Minister have some convincing to do. Where Welsh left could meet Welsh right

David Melding asks whether unionism and nationalism can come together to provide a strong narrative for a federal Britain

It is time to examine the compatibility of Unionism and Nationalism and ask whether they can combine to provide a strong narrative for a federal Britain. Such an ambitious objective might at first sight appear fanciful, but one thing these theories of identity certainly have in common is a desire to shape the horizontal plane of politics on which socio-economic ideologies strike vertically. Consequently, there are left and right wing Unionists and Nationalists.

There are intimations in both Unionism and Nationalism that suggest the possibility of compromise and unexpected coalition. Both Unionism and Nation- alism are crucial forces in Britain because much Britishness lingers in Celtic Nationalism while Unionism requires a heavy dose of national sentiment in order to lift it above a mere civic identity.

Celtic Nationalism has regularly sought to embrace aspects of Britishness as can be readily seen today in the SNP’s belief that a social union would replace the constitutional union after Scottish independence. And Unionism has never merely been a constitutional concept but rather one that has sought to accommodate, even sublimate, Nationalism, in order to produce a sense of dual identity. However, a hint of cultural paramountcy is present in Unionism.

Unionists face a big constitutional moment because a Union based on the superiority of British national identity cannot survive. However, one that repre- sents a partnership, where Britishness is the common but not dominant identity might prosper. More: it ought to prosper. In retaining its integrity as a multi-national state, the UK would demonstrate that the constructive forces within identity politics can be accommodated by wider political associations. We would not face a world made fractious by the principle that states and nations must be necessarily co-terminous.

Britain is stumbling towards common ground that could accommodate the most constructive elements of Unionist and Nationalist thought. That common ground might be a federation that would allow the British state to meet the aspirations of the Home Nations. Or, should that attempt ultimately fail, it would allow for the British state in time to evolve into a looser confederation. It would be a productive compromise allowing for the development of the British state and the two most vital forces that now seek to shape it. Speaking of compromise is appropriate because federalism is best understood as a treaty relationship in which the interests of the different spheres of government are constantly being modified and negotiated. It creates a lot of space for constitutional development and allows states to adapt to challenges that cannot be easily anticipated.

At first glance, federalism appears a difficult option for Unionists. There is always a danger that Unionism will over compensate in its desire for unity and become insular in outlook rather than expansive and open to change. Today, some strands of Unionism are dominated by a Euro-sceptic vision that yearns for a more classically independent British state. Here the need for international co-operation is still acknowledged but believed to be achievable by bilateral agreements between states. But it is doubtful that the traditional character of Britain can be easily preserved in such a confined context.

Britain was the first global state with an expansive mission first in Empire and then in Europe and the various international organisations that were set up after the Second World War (many of which Britain was instrumental in founding). Narrow Euro-sceptism is now one of the principle threats to the emergence of a reformed, neo-Unionism. Such Euro-sceptism threatens to fuse with a rather brittle English Nationalism that resents outside interfer- ence and finds more inspiration in contemporary Switzerland than in the historic achievements that created the English speaking world. This ‘stay at home’ Britain looks a meagre version of the state that defeated the Nazi menace and established many of the international pillars of democratic govern- ment, human rights, and free trade. Britain would surely not survive by becoming the last place in the British Empire.

The dilemma facing Celtic Nationalism is something of a reversal of that confronting Unionism. While Welsh and Scottish Nationalists have largely ac- commodated the concept of European unity, opinion within the EU is turning against secession (although it was to a degree accepted in the 1990s when Eastern Europe emerged out of the shadow of communism). Nationalists in Britain, Belgium and Catalonia face a stern examination from those who see the greater use of federal mechanisms as a way to sustain the constitutional integrity of multi-national states.

The EU could expand alarmingly in terms of constituent members if secession becomes an increasingly ordinary political process. When the EEC was formed in the 1950s most political observers would have thought an independent Scotland as likely as an independent Bavaria or Burgundy. Yugoslavia stands as a grim warning of what can happen when multi-national states dissolve suddenly, although the Czechoslovakian experience amounted to a ‘velvet’ divorce that perhaps indicates a more likely pattern.

Much ideological common ground exists between Unionism and Nationalism. The shared faith in parliamentary institutions is striking. What is often called the Westminster model of government has been the template for Welsh and Scottish political institutions. Many parliamentary states are federal and there appear few arguments in principle against Britain adopting a federal constitution (there is a big argument in practice, the dominant size of England, which I discuss in Chapter 3 of The Reformed Union).

Many political-cultural values are also shared. Most Nationalists in Wales and Scotland agree that some form of British connection would survive inde- pendence. The SNP has called for what amounts to a confederation of considerable depth with a single market and currency, a shared head of state and joint armed forces. Even when this is described as a social union it still looks like a treaty relationship not a million miles away from federalism. In- deed, one can take this further and argue that the presence of Britishness is being acknowledged in such proposals. Britishness is ancient unlike the British state and it seems fanciful to expect Scots in an independent Scotland to start relating to the English as fellow Europeans rather than fellow Brits! Dual identities are clearly at play here, otherwise why call for a social union at all?

Finally, and most surprisingly, Unionism and Nationalism in Britain accepts the legitimacy of secession. This embeds the principle that sovereignty ulti- mately resides with the peoples of the Home Nations separately and not in the people of Britain collectively. If the peoples of the Home Nations are sovereign and want a federal Union, both Unionism and Nationalism will have to accommodate such a desire if they are to practice liberal and construc- tive statecraft. The agreement on the conduct of the Scottish referendum signed by David Cameron and Alex Salmond on 15th October 2012 in effect convened Britain’s constitutional convention. It remains to be seen whether a politician of the first rank has the imagination to combine the most positive attributes of Unionism and Nationalism in a Federal Union.

David Melding AM for South Wales Central is Deputy Presiding Officer in the National Assembly.

Forthcoming IWA Events

The second wave in Welsh school improvement

Bobbie Davies 8th March 2013, 9.30am - 4.00pm

Grayling WJEC, Western Avenue, Cardiff 2 Caspian Point This conference examines what we should be planning now to ensure enhanced perfor- Caspian Way mance in our secondary schools in the next three years. Cardiff CF10 4DQ Please click here for further details and how to book. 029 2046 2507

Making Wales Competitive - IWA National Economy Conference 2013 bobbie.davies@grayling .com 15th March 2013, 8.30m - 4.00pm

Parc Thistle Hotel, Park Place, Cardiff

In association with PwC and supported by CBI Wales

Please click here for more information about the event, and to book a place.

Kirsty Davies IWA Grayling Public Affairs 4 Cathedral Road Cardiff CF11 9IJ It can be difficult to keep up with an ever changing environment. Grayling Wales provides the expertise and knowledge to help you get ahead and effectively engage with Welsh pol- 029 2069 2898 itics, media and society.

Grayling Wales develops and delivers integrated communications programmes. Whether you require long term strategic advice or one-off project support we can provide:

 Strategic political counsel and advice  Influencing and engaging  Event management  Political monitoring and analysis  Public relations  Stakeholder analysis  Campaigns  Public consultations

For more information, please contact [email protected]

clickonwales - the IWA’s news discussion platform The best place for:  news analysis  debate  the Wales Factfile

Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a joint initiative between Grayling and the Institute of Welsh Affairs, bringing you the ABC of Welsh politics every month.