SADF COMMENT 1 August 2017 An assessment of the latest premature end Issue n° 97 of Nawaz Sharif’s prime ministership ISSN 2406-5617
Dr. Siegfried O. Wolf is the Director Dr. Siegfried O. Wolf of Research at the South Asia Democratic Forum and Senior Researcher at the South Asia Institute, Heidelberg University . It happened a third time! Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister (PM) of
Pakistan, got ousted from office. On 28 July 2017, the country’s Supreme Court (SC) unanimously disqualified Sharif as member of the national parliament and, in consequence, Sharif resigned as the country’s Premier. The judges deemed the PM of being unfit for public office. The five members of the country’s highest bench ruled that the PM had not been ‘honest’, which is a prerequisite for the eligibility for membership of the national parliament — and subsequently for the chief executive’s office — as enshrined in the Articles 62 and 63 of Pakistan’s Constitution. It was argued that Nawaz did not disclose to the national parliament and the judiciary his employment (and related monthly income of $ 3000) in the Dubai-based Capital FZE company in his nomination papers for the 2013 general elections. Ostensibly, the disqualification verdict was based on a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) report on corruption allegations, forgery of documents and conflicting statements involving his family in the context of the ‘Panama Papers case (Panama gate)’. It is interesting to note, that the apex court dispatched nearly all of the allegations listed in the JIT report. In fact, Nawaz was brought down just by a technicality that he not sufficiently laid out that he received a work permit (Iqama) for the Avenue des Arts 19 United Arab Emirates (UAE). Subsequently, critics describe the court 1210 Brussels proceedings as a violation of the ‘principles of a fair trial’, even as a [email protected] ‘judicial coup’. www.sadf.eu Cyril Almeida, assistant editor at the Pakistan based newspaper Dawn, describes the judgement as ‘confounding, appalling in argument and scope’. Furthermore, some observers emphasise that the PM’s ousting is based on politically motivated charges and weakened democracy. Nevertheless, besides the questions over the legality and justification of the SC’s verdict, the following assessments regarding Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification and its political ramifications can be made:
Nawaz Sharif will maintain most of his political leverage The decision of the SC brought not only Nawaz premiership but also a legal and political limbo to an end. The latter phenomenon gains momentum earlier this year due to the courts split vote from 20 April 2017, resulting in the establishment of the JIT. The subsequent pending consideration of the disqualification of the PM made not only Nawaz Sharif’s political future precarious but also hampered the functionality of his government. As it seems, Nawaz Sharif’s career as elected office- bearer comes to an end, at least for the time being. But taken into account that the country’s most significant province, Punjab, which is under firm control of the Sharif family, he will continue to be a political heavy weight. Not only is Nawaz brother of Shahbaz, Punjab’s powerful chief minister, but the Sharif dynasty was also able to build up a powerful and intricate network of feudal-like patron-client relations based on the so-called biraderis or brotherhoods and clan networks possessing a strong sense of identity and personal codes of behaviour from the top to the bottom of all levels of the provincial administrative system. This dynastic structures ensure the control of Nawaz’s family over the Punjab. Being entrusted with such a mighty stronghold, he will not only retain most of his previous political power, but will also exercise his influence from behind the scenes. In technical terms, despite being disqualified as PM, he will remain head of his political party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the ruling and largest party in the National Assembly. In consequence, he is able to decide on the nomination of his successor and any candidate from the opposition will have most likely no chance at all. The fact that Sharif chose his brother Shahbaz as a potential next prime minister and made sure that former petroleum minister
Shahid Khaqan Abbasi got elected as interim prime minister, until Shahbaz becomes eligible.1 This can be seen as a clear indication that Sharif is not willing to give up his decision-making power and
1 He still needs to gain a seat in the national parliament via a by election. ______SADF Comment N.97