Election 2018: ‘Blue Wave’ or ‘Blue Crush’?

Presented by Zach Shamberg Director of Government Affairs (and self-proclaimed ‘Election Expert’) Campaign Intern for U.S. My Election Background Senator Pat Toomey (2010)

Campaign Manager for State Representative Todd Stephens (2010 & 2012)

Chief of Staff to Rep. Stephens (2010-12)

Director of Advocacy and Leg. Affairs at PHCA (2014-2018)

Ran for Class President in high school (received 4 votes) The Politics of

• Everyone has state and federal legislators who represent their facilities In Pennsylvania, there are: • 203 state Representatives • 50 state Senators • 18 U.S. Representatives (members of Congress) • 2 U.S. Senators: Pat Toomey (R) and Bob Casey (D) Republicans vs. Democrats Republicans hold majorities in the state House and Senate

• 121 Republicans-82 Democrats in House • 34 Republicans-16 Democrats in Senate • 1 Democratic Governor: Tom Wolf

Current U.S. House • 10 Republicans • 6 Democrats • 2 Open Seats (Dent and Meehan) In Pennsylvania in 2018…

• All 203 state House seats are up for reelection • 25 state Senate seats • All 18 Congressional seats • 1 U.S. Senate seat • Gubernatorial Race Let’s Go Back in Time… December 12, 1977 November 8, 2016 • ‘Doctor Strange’ became the most recent Marvel movie to finish #1

• The Chainsmokers’ ‘Closer’ was the #1 song of the week

• ‘Escape Clause’ by John Sanford was #1 on the NYT Best Seller list

Trump Administration Accomplishments/Goals

• Economy is booming • Unemployment at all-time low • Stock market hits all-time high • Two Supreme Court justices confirmed

• Replace Affordable Care Act (ACA) • Infrastructure • Border Wall

“All Politics is Local…” Top Issues for Voters

• Healthcare (30%) • Economy and jobs (21%) • Guns (15%) • Immigration (15%) • Tax Cuts and Tax Reform (7%) • Penn State Football (1 guy in Lebanon county) U.S. Senate • Current Party Breakdown: – 51 Republicans – 47 Democrats – 2 Independents (caucus with the Democrats)

Seats up in 2018: 9 republicans 24 Democrats 2 Independents U.S. House of Representatives

• 235 Republicans • 193 Democrats • 7 vacancies : 5 Republican, 2 Democrats

Democrats need to win net +23 seats to win control of U.S. House Average U.S. House Midterm Losses

• Average Republican Majority Loss: 15 seats • Average Democrat Majority Loss: 32

(With both Majority parties also controlling the White House) Things to Consider in 2018

• Historically large number of competitive races (69 of 78 are GOP seats) • Democrat energy and fundraising • Republican energy (after Kavanaugh vote) 2006 vs. 2018

• Unemployment rate (lower now) • Presidential approval (higher now) • Right Track (higher now) • Congressional generic ballot (lower now) • Independent generic ballot (lower now)

*Democrats won back both the U.S. House and Senate in 2006, effectively making President George W. Bush a ‘lame duck’ in his final two years in office… Key Pennsylvania Races Governor Tom Wolf vs. former state Senator Scott Wagner Lieutenant Governor Mike Stack John Fetterman John Fetterman vs. Jeff Bartos U.S. Senator Bob Casey vs. Congressman Lou Barletta The Old Congressional Map The New Congressional Map PA Congressional Races to Watch

• PA-1 Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Wallace (D) • PA-5 Kim (R) vs. Scanlon (D) • PA-7 Nothstein (R) vs. Wild (D) • PA-8 Chrin (R) vs. Cartwright (D) • PA-10 Perry (R) vs. Scott (D) • PA-16 Kelly (R) vs. DiNicola (D) • PA-17 Rothfus (R) vs. Lamb (D) PA House Races to Watch Incumbents Who Lost Primaries

Lt. Gov. Mike Stack (D) • Lost to Mayor of Braddock John Fetterman SD-38: Sen. Randy Vulakovich (R-Allegheny) • Lost to challenger Jeremy Shaffer HD-21: Rep. (D-Allegheny) • Los