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Evaluating Hurricane Recovery in Dominica ______ EVALUATING HURRICANE RECOVERY IN DOMINICA FERNANDO BRENNER FERNANDES February, 2019 SUPERVISORS: Dr. C.J. van Westen Prof. Dr. N. Kerle EVALUATING HURRICANE RECOVERY IN DOMINICA FERNANDO BRENNER FERNANDES Enschede, The Netherlands, February, 2019 Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation of the University of Twente in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geo-information Science and Earth Observation. Specialization: Applied Earth Sciences, with specialization in Natural Hazards, Risk and Engineering SUPERVISORS: Dr. C.J. van Westen Prof. Dr. N., Kerle THESIS ASSESSMENT BOARD: Prof. Dr. V.G. Jetten (Chair) Dr. M. van den Homberg (External Examiner, Netherlands Red Cross) DISCLAIMER This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation of the University of Twente. All views and opinions expressed therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Faculty. ABSTRACT Disasters cause significant economic and human life losses and may affect both the natural and built-up environment for a longer period. The modifications of the local environmental conditions may also lead to the occurrence of further hazardous processes, characterising the situation as a multi-hazard scenario, which was the case in Dominica where Hurricane Maria hit the island on September 2017, while the country was still recovering from Tropical Storm Erika, which had happened two years earlier. With the rapid development of the internet and the growing engagement of the general population in collecting and sharing geographical information, evaluating post-disaster recovery can make use of the application of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and images/videos from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). The main goal of this research was to analyse multi-hazard risk conditions using UAV- and VGI- derived data in the post-disaster recovery of Dominica after Hurricane Maria. The steps toward achieving this goal are made by four primary contributions. First, the effects of the main manifestations of Hurricane Maria were assessed (high-speed winds, intense rainfall and extreme waves), identifying the hazard relationships in a framework that considered two-time steps: during and after the event. Secondly, a damage database collected by volunteers after Hurricane Maria was examined, depicting how VGI derived data, integrated with UAV images, can contribute to assessing the effects of the hurricane. Thirdly, pre-Maria hazards maps were validated with the actual damage data from Hurricane Maria. Finally, different recovery scenarios were analysed, and the possible influence on risk components was evaluated. Results indicate the utility of the hazard relationship framework in assessing how damages to the vegetation and excess sedimentation on river channels can influence the occurrence of further hazardous processes, demonstrating that exposure of the EaR increased due to changes in the built-up environment. The analysis and use of a building database obtained during fieldwork linked with VGI derived data suggest the need for an update of the wind and flood hazard maps in order to better reflect the hazard as a basis for spatial planning. Most importantly, the results show the usefulness and limitations of VGI-derived data along with UAV images to support planners for monitoring and making strategic decisions where efforts should be invested to decrease exposure and vulnerability of elements-at-risk (EaR) with information of the effects on the built-up and natural environment. Keywords: multi-hazard, hazard interactions, post-disaster recovery, VGI. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to both my supervisors, Dr. Cees van Westen and Dr. Norman Kerle, who have dedicated their time and effort to provide me with guidance during this thesis. Thank you for the patience and knowledge transferred to me. I would also like to thank the UT-ITC for the unique opportunity given to me through the excellence scholarship that allowed me to pursue my studies in the Netherlands. Additionally, to all the mentors and professors that assisted me during the MSc and to the professors in AES department that helped me building the necessary skills to be applied to the research thesis. Furthermore, I would like to thank the colleagues from Dominica and the Physical Planning Division, who were kind to provide me with data and information to be used on this research. Thank you to my loved ones who gave me support and motivation to follow my dreams, especially my mother. I also appreciate all the new friends I have made during the studies and that I will carry for life. Finally, thank you to all my AES colleagues and friends who made this experience much more enjoyable. Fernando Brenner Fernandes Enschede, February 2019 ii LIST OF ABBREVIATION BBB – Build Back Better BDA – Building Damage Assessment DRM – Disaster Risk Management DRR – Disaster Risk Reduction EaR – Elements-at-risk EWS – Early-Warning System GIS – Geographic Information System NDVI – Normalized Difference Vegetation Index OAM – OpenAerialMap OSM – OpenStreetMap SMCE – Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation TS – Tropical Storm UAV – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UNDP – United Nations Development Program USAID - United States Agency for International Development VGI – Volunteered Geographic Information iii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background ...................................................................................................................................................................1 1.2. Research problem ........................................................................................................................................................3 1.3. Objectives and Research Questions .........................................................................................................................4 1.4. Thesis Structure ...........................................................................................................................................................4 1.5. Study Area .....................................................................................................................................................................5 1.6. Data ................................................................................................................................................................................8 2. HAZARD RELATIONSHIPS ....................................................................................................................... 12 2.1. Multi-hazard Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................ 12 2.2. Hazard Relationships During Hurricane Maria .................................................................................................. 15 2.3. Post-Maria Hazard Relationships .......................................................................................................................... 18 3. ANALYSING A BUILDING DAMAGE DATABASE .......................................................................... 20 3.1. Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) ...................................................................................................... 20 3.2. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Applied to Disaster Risk Management (DRM) ...................................... 22 3.3. Methodology Applied on the Databases .............................................................................................................. 22 3.4. Analysis of the Building Damage Assessment (BDA) Database ..................................................................... 24 3.5. Errors .......................................................................................................................................................................... 31 4. VALIDATING PRE-EVENT HAZARD MAPS ...................................................................................... 34 4.1. Validating the Wind Hazard Map .......................................................................................................................... 34 4.2. Validating the Flood Hazard Map ......................................................................................................................... 36 4.3. Validating the Landslide Hazard Map .................................................................................................................. 38 4.4. Summary .................................................................................................................................................................... 40 5. RECOVERY SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................................ 41 5.1. Definition of Post-Disaster Recovery ................................................................................................................... 41 5.2. Methodology Applied to Construct the Recovery Scenarios ........................................................................... 43 5.3. Abandonment Scenario ..........................................................................................................................................
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