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Brazil: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Suggestions 1 Brazil: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Suggestions December 6, 2019 Economics 341 By Frank Gaunt, Siena Marr, Shulav Neupane, Jakob Shimer 2 Table of Contents I. State of the Brazilian Economy A. The Central Bank of Brazil B. Labor Market Conditions C. Pension Reform D. Comparative Labor Market Conditions E. Financial Markets F. Credit Markets G. Output Growth H. Investment in Future Capacity II. Suggested Policy Reforms III. Conclusions IV. References 3 State of the Brazilian Economy The Central Bank of Brazil In 1964, in an attempt to stabilize the economy, the federal government passed the Banking Law, which created the National Monetary Council and the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil). The National Monetary Council issues policy decisions, and the Central Bank of Brazil enacts those changes. This framework aims to provide economic growth, low unemployment, and low inflation. Specifically, the Central Bank is an inflation-targeting regime. In the aftermath of the recession in 2015 and 2016 these objectives have proven out of reach for the Central Bank However, the failure to meet these goals is not due to policy decisions of the Monetary Council or the Central Bank. Rather, in the years after the recession intelligent policy was implemented, but remained ineffective primarily due to other structural aspects of the economy. Brazil’s inflation has reached stable levels in recent years. In 2015, inflation ballooned to 9.03 percent, and in 2016, inflation rested at 8.74 percent. However, since 2017, Brazil’s inflation has consistently been below 4 percent (Plecher 2019). More recently, Brazil’s inflation rate is sitting at 2.89 percent, the lowest mark in over a year. Currently, the inflation rate target is 4.25 percent for the end of 2019 and 4 percent for 2020, but Brazil has been undershooting its inflation targets consistently for the past few months (McGeever 2019). This low inflation rate offers flexibility for the central bank to lower the Selic rate even more. With an adjustable Selic rate, the Central Bank will, in theory, be able to use expansionary monetary policy to target the weak output of the Brazilian economy. However, the recovery effects are not yet felt, as high unemployment 4 coupled with issues stemming from the current lack of pension reform is keeping economic output low. The Central Bank also employs reserve requirements as a way to target monetary policy deficiencies (Reuters 2019). Currently, the credit market fails to provide robust economic activity. The Brazilian Central Bank, even though it is primarily an inflation-targeting regime, can target these deficiencies. In fact, the Central Bank has been lowering its reserve requirements in an attempt to free up liquidity and instigate banks to offer more credit to borrowers. In March of 2018, the Central Bank reduced reserve requirements on demand deposits by 15 percent, from 40 percent (Malinowki 2018). More recently, the Central Bank reduced reserve requirements from 33 percent to 31 percent (Reuters). While this shift was relatively small, the Central Bank expects that this reduction will eventually translate into 16.1 billion reais, the equivalent of 4.19 billion US dollars of new liquidity. The Central Bank currently estimates that continuing to reduce reserve requirements in a similar manner will lead to 100 billion reais being introduced into the economy (Reuters 2019). These changes will take time to implement, but at the current pace, creditors are likely to increase their investments, even as the interest rates lower. This change will not overhaul the broken commercial credit system, but the Central Bank remains hopeful that this will lead to increased investment within the country. Additionally, the Central Bank employs the reserve requirements to strengthen the value of the real, most recently by selling dollars from their reserves for the first time in ten years (Itaú). The economic effects of these stable and well-advised decisions have not been felt by Brazilian consumers. Rather, tension continues to mount in the economy, as the unemployment rate has increased over four percent since the recession in 2016. The unstable economy calls into 5 question the safety of the bank members, as an easy excuse for president Bolsonaro would be the primary enactor of monetary policy. However, Bolsonaro and many others throughout the central government have advocated for the Central Bank and have gone as far as calling for drastically increased central bank independence (Malinowki 2018). The suggested changes include higher job security for the Central Bank bankers and terms that do not coincide with the presidential terms. Another positive aspect of these changes would be greater transparency, leading to a more well-informed population. All of these policies serve to demonstrate faith in the Brazilian Central Bank, and confirm a commitment to preserve its independence during future administrations. Labor Market Conditions Brazilian workers are paying the price of the sluggish economy. Unemployment has almost doubled in the past seven years - from 7.6 million in 2012 to 13.4 million in 2019 (BBC news). The official unemployment survey found that 28.3 million workers (25%) were under-utlized, that is, they either were not working or were working less than they could. 12.7% of the population of Brazil over 14 years of age is unemployed, which is much higher than 6.5% in December, 2013. The unemployment rate has remained stable over the past year, as shown in the figure below (Trading Economics). 6 It is important to note here is that while about one-fifth of the labor force works in agriculture, it is not agriculture that has brought down the employment numbers - unemployment in agriculture has remained stable since 2014, slightly above 10 million, after the massive decline in 2011-12 (Moody’s). It is clear that there is a need for stimulation in the Brazilian labor market, especially in the non-agricultural sectors. There is some indication that Brazil is already working towards fixing its labor market issues. In September 2019, Brazil added 157,210 jobs, which was an increase from 121,390 in August (Trading Economics 2019). September was the sixth consecutive month of job creation. Further, most of these jobs were added in non-agricultural sectors, with the biggest increases in services, manufacturing, trade, and civil construction. Another positive is the recent increases in labor force participation (see chart below). With the average retirement age of 52, these low participation rates are not as surprising, but with new reforms in place, the upward trend in labor 7 force participation is expected to continue. Along with the increase in labor force participation, real wages have been increasing since mid-2016 (shown below). Wages increased from 2299 BRL/mo to 2317 BRL/mo from September to October alone this year. While this is not significantly higher than the record low (in the last 10 years) wage of 2178 BRL/mo in 2012, the recent upward trend is a positive. Both low-skilled and high-skilled workers saw wage increases, even though the increase was greater for high-skilled workers (Trading Economics). These increases have persisted even though labor force productivity has not seen major trend changes and has remained largely stable with decreasing volatility over time. Wages in manufacturing, though, have been on the decline, going from 2351 BRL/mo in February to 2282 BRL/mo in October this year. 8 Pension Reform in Brazil An important development that has happened recently is the Pension Reform. With massive deficits caused by the pension system, along with low average retirement ages and an aging population, Brazil has attempted to reform the constitutional social security system for some time. The country spends an equivalent of 13% of its GDP on social security (8.6% on pensions alone) compared to an average of 8% for G-20 nations (Washington Post). Further, 25.5% of Brazil’s population is estimated to be over 65 years of age in 2060, compared to 9.5% now, which has intensified the need for reform. After years of failed attempts, the Federal Senate finally approved the reform on October 22nd, 2019. The reform places a minimum age for retirement, 65 for men and 62 for women. This is much higher than the current average of 52, which means that more of the population will stay in the 9 workforce, and further a smaller portion will rely on pensions. The minimum contribution time for workers in urban areas is set at 20 years for men and 15 for women (Washington Post). This change, along with tax increases for banks, is estimated to save 800 million BRL over 10 years. The Ministry of Planning estimates that without pension reform, the mandatory expenditures would have consumed the entirety of the budget by as early as 2022, effectively removing any fiscal space for policy (Instituto Millenium). Thus, the reforms not only stimulate the labor market, but also allow the possibility for fiscal policy in the future. Comparative Labor Market Conditions The labor market in Brazil is very informal, which has large effects on inequality. The informal workers retire at an older age than average because of the lack of social safety net. Though the proportion of informal workers is in the lower end when compared to other Latin American countries, the rate is still relatively high as shown in the diagram below (oecdecoscope). This is a result of high costs to hire formal workers, which has been exacerbated by the tedious taxation mechanism. Further, the lack of educational opportunities has meant that for many people the informal labor market is the only option. Only 49% of adults aged 25-64 have a post-secondary education, which is much lower than the OECD average of 78% (OECD Better Life Index).
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