The Influence of the Air Cargo Network on the Regional Economy Under the Impact of High-Speed Rail in China
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sustainability Article The Influence of the Air Cargo Network on the Regional Economy under the Impact of High-Speed Rail in China Lulu Hao 1, Na Zhang 1,*, Hongchang Li 1,*, Jack Strauss 2 , Xuejie Liu 1 and Xuemeng Guo 1 1 School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; [email protected] (L.H.); [email protected] (X.L.); [email protected] (X.G.) 2 Reiman School of Finance, University of Denver, 2101 S. University Blvd, Denver, CO 80208, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] (N.Z.); [email protected] (H.L.); Tel.: +86-1890-183-6509 (H.L.) Received: 20 July 2020; Accepted: 22 September 2020; Published: 1 October 2020 Abstract: There is little research on the impact of air cargo networks on regional economic development, which is especially notable considering that Chinese airlines gradually adjusted their networks after the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR). This empirical study aims to fill this research gap. Firstly, we used the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to study the effect of the air cargo network on the regional economy. The results show that, in eastern and central China, the higher the clustering coefficient of the domestic air cargo network, the more significant their promotion effect becomes on the GDP per capita, with cities in eastern China benefitting the most from this effect. However, for super-scale cities, the clustering coefficient of the domestic air cargo network has a significant negative effect on the GDP per capita, which is likely because both the air and HSR passenger services crowd out the development opportunities for air cargo. Secondly, we applied the Difference-in-Difference (DID) method in order to measure the impact on the regional economy caused by air cargo under the impact of HSR. The results show that the aviation network adjusted for the impact of HSR produces heterogeneous effects on cities for different regions and scales, and that the international aviation network has greater impacts on cities than the domestic network. In eastern China, HSR and air cargo (both international and domestic networks) promote economic growth simultaneously; in central China, only domestic air cargo has a positive effect on the regional economy; in western China, neither HSR nor air cargo has an obvious effect on the regional economy. Policy implications—such as encouraging the cooperation of HSR and civil aviation—are discussed, and could help bring the functions of the air cargo network in regional economic development into full play. Keywords: high-speed rail; air cargo network; regional economy 1. Introduction Experiences in China and abroad have shown that high-speed rail (HSR) can have significant advantages in delivering massive passenger volumes, shortening travel time, and improving accessibility, achieving the ‘urban integration’ development of different layers of cities, addressing environmental protection issues through greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and promoting the formation of a regionally integrated transportation system [1–5]. In June 2016, the Chinese State Council approved the ‘Medium- and Long-Term Railway Network Plan’, in which it was planned that China would construct a nationwide HSR network of ‘eight vertical and eight horizontal’ lines (as shown in Figure1 below). By the end of 2019, the operating mileage of HSR reached 35,000 km in China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 8120; doi:10.3390/su12198120 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, 8120 2 of 20 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 20 Figure 1. PlanningPlanning map of the medium- and long long-term-term high-speed rail (HSR) network. The rapidrapid development development of HSRof HSR had had prominent prominent impacts impacts on civil on aviation. civil aviation. HSR has HSR had ahas significant had a significantimpact on airfares,impact on profits, airfares, and profits, social and welfare social in welfare both the in long both and the shortlong and term short [6–9 ].term For [6–9]. example, For example,after the openingafter the of opening the Beijing–Shanghai of the Beijing–Shanghai HSR, the civil HSR, aviation the civil passenger aviation loadpassenger factor reducedload factor by reduced4%, and theby 4%, ticket and price the ticket dropped price by dropped 15–20%. by In 15– September20%. In September 1981, the Paris–Lyon 1981, the Paris–Lyon HSR was launched,HSR was whichlaunched, directly which resulted directly inresulted a 24% in decrease a 24% decrease in civil in aviation civil aviation passenger passenger volume volume on this on routethis route [10]. [10].In November In November 1994, 1994, Eurostar Eurostar was was officially officially put intoput into operation. operation. One One year year later, later, the the London–Paris London–Paris air passengerair passenger volume volume decreased decreased by 70%,by 70%, and and that that for thefor London–Brusselsthe London–Brussels route route decreased decreased by 65% by 65% [11]. After[11]. After Japan’s Japan’s Shinkansen Shinkansen was putwas into put operation,into operatio withinn, within traveling traveling distances distances of 200 of to 200 800 to km 800 from km frommajor major stations, stations, air and air road and passengerroad passeng volumeser volumes both decreasedboth decreased by 35% by [ 1235%]. [12]. According to transportation economics, air transportation that shortens the space and time distances among cities can not only optimize labor division structures but can also produce regional economic benefitsbenefits [13 [13].]. China’s China’s civil civil aviation aviation development development strategy strategy focuses predominantlyfocuses predominantly on passenger, on passenger,rather than rather freight, than transportation freight, transportation [14]. However, [14]. Air However, Transport Air Action Transpor Groupt Action (ATAG) Group research (ATAG) has researchshown that, has although shown that, air transports although lessair transports than 1% of less the totalthan global 1% of tra theffi ctotal volume global of goods,traffic itvolume provides of goods,a value it contribution provides a ofvalue 35% contribution for total international of 35% for trade, total and international more than 4.5%trade, of and global more economic than 4.5% output of globalcan be economic attributed output to air transport.can be attributed Thus, airto air cargo transport. transport Thus, is an air important cargo transport way for is governmentsan important wayto boost for governments their economic to andboost social their development economic and [15 so,16cial]. development The air cargo [15,16]. network The determines, air cargo network to some determines,extent, the accessibility, to some extent, stability, the reliability, accessibility, and estability,fficiency ofreliability, air cargo transportation,and efficiency andof air provides cargo transportation,new potential opportunities and provides fornew regional potential economic opportunities development for regional [17]. Therefore,economic development this study aims [17]. to Therefore,explore, under this thestudy influence aims ofto HSRexplore, and withunder the the corresponding influence of adjustmentHSR and with of the the air cargocorresponding network, adjustmentthe impacts of of the air cargoair cargo on thenetwork, regional the economy impacts of air China. cargo on the regional economy of China. 2. Literature Literature Review and Analytical Framework 2.1. Literature Literature Review 2.1.1. HSR and Air Transport 2.1.1. HSR and Air Transport The rapid development of HSR in China is causing unprecedented challenges for the civil aviation The rapid development of HSR in China is causing unprecedented challenges for the civil industry [18]. Generally speaking, HSR has advantages over civil aviation in terms of travel time, ticket aviation industry [18]. Generally speaking, HSR has advantages over civil aviation in terms of travel prices, traffic frequency,accessibility to HSR stations, and punctuality,etc.; thus, it has considerable impacts time, ticket prices, traffic frequency, accessibility to HSR stations, and punctuality, etc.; thus, it has on the civil aviation industry [19,20]. Tan (2011) [21] systematically studied intermodal competition considerable impacts on the civil aviation industry [19,20]. Tan (2011) [21] systematically studied between HSR and civil aviation, covering five factors: ticket prices, time value, subjective passenger intermodal competition between HSR and civil aviation, covering five factors: ticket prices, time utility, objective safety, and punctuality. Tan maintained that the opening of HSR will inevitably affect value, subjective passenger utility, objective safety, and punctuality. Tan maintained that the opening the development of China’s civil aviation transportation industry, while the magnitude of these impacts of HSR will inevitably affect the development of China’s civil aviation transportation industry, while the magnitude of these impacts could differ considerably over time. Yonghwa and Hun (2006) [22] Sustainability 2020, 12, 8120 3 of 20 could differ considerably over time. Yonghwa and Hun (2006) [22] used the Seoul–Daegu HSR section in South Korea as an example in order to study the changes in the passenger demand for civil aviation after HSR became available. The authors constructed a utility function equation for the civil aviation passengers, with travel time, ticket price, and train frequency as variables before and after the introduction of HSR, and