Report Number 13/14 August 1987 FEWS Country Report CHAD

Africa Bureau U.S. Agency for International Development MAP 1 CHAD Summary Map

J LIBYA

NIGER// / B.E. T.

SUDAN

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Chad 0Refugees returning LAEdUADDAT from Sudan reaching limit of planned rassistance

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Nonci-eaueT JIE MYFN-I Significantsincdamage to LOGO E " --I young plants by LOGONE" grasshoppers OCC IDENTA: ' LOGOE , ," ORENTA _ Greatest vegetation CAMEROON FEWS/PWAd-Augustincreas e sinace 198 May I0 CENTRAL AFRICAN Greastest vegetation 'REPUBLIC decrease s ince May 10

FEWS/PWA, August 1987 Famine Early Warning System Country Report CHAD Crop Prospects for 1987: A Tale of Two Zones

Prepared for the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development

Prepared by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. August 1987

Contents

Page

i Introduction 1 Summary 1 Crop Production 11 Returning Refugees List of Figures

Pa Re

3 Figure 1 Increase in NDVI, May to mid-July, 1987 3 Figure 2 Increase in NDVI, May to mid-July, 1986 4 Figure 3 Increase in NDVI, May to mid-July, 1985 5 Figure 4 NDVI for Abeche and Massakory Sub­ prefectures 6 Figure 5 Comparison of 1986 and 1987 Mid-July NDVI 6 Figure 6 NDVI for Lai Sub-prefecture 7 Map 2 Pests, July 1987 9 Map 3 Comparison of 1986 and 1987 Mid-July NDVI 10 Map 4 1986 Crops and 1987 Population 12 Map 5 Vulnerable Areas in 1987 Lean Season

14 Appendix Table 1 1986 Crops and 1987 Population Back Cover Reference Map INTRODUCTION This is the fourteenth in a series of monthly country reports issued by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) on Chad. These reports are designed to provide decision­ makers with current information and analysis on existing and potential nutriticnal emergency situations. Each situation identified i described in !erms of geographi­ cal extent, the number of people involved, or at-risk, and the proximate causes insofar as they have been discerned. Information sources are cited in the text. Information has, whenever possible, been presented in the form of quantified data. When quantified data do not exist, qualitative data are used.

Use of the term "at-risk" to identify vulnerable popula­ tions is problematical since no generally agreed upon definition exists. Yet it is necessary to identify or "target" populations in-need or "at-risk" in order to determine appropriate forms and levels of intervention. Thus, FEWS reports will employ the tern "at-risk" to mean...

...those persons lacking sufficient food, or resources to acouire sufficient food, to avert a nutritional crisis (i.e., a progressive deterioration in their health or nutritional condition below the status quo) and who, as a result, require specific intervention to avoid a lire-threatcning situation.

Perhaps of most importance to decisionmakers, the process underlying the deteriorating situation is highlighted by the FEWS effort, hopefully with enough specificity and forewarning to permit alternative intervention strategies to be examined and implemented. Food assistance strate­ gies are key to famine avoidance. Other types of intervention, however, can be of major importance both in the short-term and in the long-run, including medical, transport, storage, economic development policy change, etc.

Where possible, estimates of food nr,:ds are included in the FEWS reports. It is important to undcrstand, however, that no direct a priori relationship exists between numbers of persons at-risk and the quantity of food assistance that may be needed. This is because famines are the culmination of slow-onset disaster processes which can be extremely complex. The food needs of individual populations at-risk depend upon when in the disaster process they are identified, and the extent of the cumulative impact on the indivi­ duals concerned. Furthermore, the amount of food assistance required, whether from internal or external sources, depends upon a great number of considerations. Thus the food needs estimates presented periodically in FEWS reports should not be interpreted to mean food aid needs, (e.g., as under PL 480 or- other donor programs). FEWS does not collect primary data. Rather, it receives information from various domestic U.S. and international agencies and pr;,'ate voluntary organizations, and government from ageu,:ies in the countries under study via in­ country FEWS Public Health Advisors. The information is then examined, compiled and analyzed for its predictive potential. Without the ongoing cooperation of all these organizations, FEWS could not function. In particular, this report owes a debt to various offices of the US Agency for International Devjlopment (AID), Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA), and USAID/N'Djamena; the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Environment Satellite, Data, and Information Service's Assessment and Information Services Center (NOAA/NESDIS,'AISC); the Government of Chad (GOC) Ministry of Food Security and Displaced Persons (MSAPS) and !he multi-ministry-donor-PVO Food Action Committee (CASAD); the multi-donor funded Agro-Hydro-Meteorological Center in Niger (AGRHYMET); the European Agency for Development and Health (AEDES); the UN World Food Program (WFP); and CARE.

FEWS is operated by AID's Office of Technical Resources in the Bureau for Africa (AFR/TR) in cooperation with numerous U.S. Government and other organizations. The FEWS Country Reports are working documents of AFR/TR and should not be construed as official pronouncements of the U.S. Agency for International Development. SUMMARY The rains appear to have stopped in much of Chad's Sahelian zone.' Unless the rains resumed by production in this mid-July, area will be greatly reduced. In contrast, the rains in Chad's Sudanian zone appear to steady and strong. be While it is early for crop predic­ tions, the area should do well this year if the rains continue as they are now. As happened last year, grasshoppers are causing substantial early crop damage. One difference, however, is that the 1987 control campaign is already in place and operational.

Issues In April, refugees began returning to Chad from Sud'n in accelerated numbers. Already, the registrants count more than 77% of the number programmed by UNHCR for assistance in 1987. There is a good chance that, at scheduled levels, the UNHCR program in eastern Chad will fall short of needs by mid-summer. Key Events * Rainfall appears to have stopped in the Sahelian zone since early or mid-June. The growing season in this area seems to have been cut short. Replanting can only take place when the rains return. * The rains in thc Sudanian zone appear to be strong and stable. If the rest of the rainy, season progresses in as strong a fashion, this zone could experience yet another bumper harvest.

CROP PRODUCTION There are currently Rainfall two distinct rainfall regimes taking place in Chad. Ra in fell in May in much of the Sahelian zone, but did not continue past early June. failure to rcturn The rains' by mid-July has raised concern about prospects for crop production. Crops grown in this area require a continuous rainy season of at least 90 days for a good harvest to be achieved, and the likelihood rainy season continuing of the through mid-October is not high. In the Sudanian zone, however, rainfall has been quite good, with most reporting rain s:ations showing cumula­ tive rainfall as of July 20 at greater than 100% of 30 year norm. the In terms of rainfall, prospects for production crop in this region are very good.

*Rainfall data for this region are sparse, and there have been for the area since July 10. no new rainfall reports The one Sahelian rain station that (Abeche), had does report regularly received a total of 10 mm of rain by July 10, which is 13% of the station's 30 year norm. Satellite The northern limit of "green-up" (as inferred by an Imagery increase in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index -- NDVI) at July 20* this year (Figure 1) lags that of 1986 considerably (Figure 2) and that of 1985 somewhat (Figure 3). This is additional evidence of the worrisome2 dryness reported for Chad's Sahel, although it should be noted that areas north of the 1986 "green-up" zone are usually dry at mid-July and are not currently of concern.

There have been two different patterns in the progression of the NDVI in the zo..e of concern (Figure 4). The first, as seen in Abeche Sub-prefecture (Ouaddai Prefec­ ture), shows an overall decline in average sub-prefecture NDVI since early May. The rain station at Abeche has reported a total of 10 mm of rainfall (13% of the 30 year norm) through July 10, which corresponds to inferences drawn from NDVI evidence. The second pattern, as seen in Massakory Sub-prefecture (Chari-Baguirmi Prefecture), shows an overall increase in the average NDVI for the sub-prefecture through the end of June, and then a sharp decline, returning to early May levels. This pattern corroborates reports received from the capital, N'Dja­ mena, regarding reinfall in the Sahel.

While imagery for both 1987 and 1986 show a fairly solid pattern of increases in NDVI in southern Chad through July 20 (Figures 1 and 2), there are areas of the southern zone that are doing even better in 1987 than in 1986 (Figure 5). Figure 6 shows the 1987 progression of average NDVI for one of the sub-prefectures with the fastest increase in NDVI in Chad (Lai Sub-prefecture, Tandjile Prefecture). It appears that the "green-up" seen there is a full 20 days ahead of the 1981 to 1986 norm.

Pests Grasshopper infestations have been reported in 15 sub­ prefectures in the zone identified by the March/April egg-pod survey as being at-risk (densities ranging from 3 to 80 insects per square meter). Crop damage has been reported only in some of these areas, however, with the worst damage (up to 50% of the crop lost in some areas) reported in Adre and Goz Beida Sub-prefectures, Ouaddai Prefecture, on the Sudan border (Map 2). Ground control is underway in nine of the infested sub-prefectures, with supplies being positioned in the field. At the end of July, a contract was signed for a fixed wing airplane for use in Phase 2 control efforts, should they become necessary. In 1986, the late arrival of fixed wing air power was a prime factor in preventing an effective

Very recent rainfall is not usually reflected in a given period's image. Figure 1: Chad

Increasc in MDVIDeraei r cs, M4 9 1 - 1u t o J u l 1 1- 2 8 f ro m I - IQW o ul 11-e 1987 199?

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V'-. r.W,, 0 > .,7 0 t, 9>. , Q. control campaign, especially in those areas now most threatened. The 1987 grasshopper control campaign is being aided by the dry spell that started in mid-June. The dry spell has apparently limited the northward movement of grasshoppers and prevented a population explosion.

There have been isolated reports of Desert and African Migratory Locust infestations. Prior to July, sightings of solitary phase Desert Locusts had been made in Biltine and Ouaddai Prefectures. The threat posed by Desert Locusts on the Chad/Sudan border moved the Crop Protec­ tion Services of the Government of Chad (GOC) and the Government of Sudan (GOS) to meet for the exchange of information. A cooperative relationship was established at that meeting. In early July, an infestation of gre­ garious-phase Desert Locusts was id.ntified in B.E.T. Prefecture (Map 2, upper inset). The inlestation was severe enough to induce swift reactions on the part of the GOC and the donor community. Ground control vehicles have been sent to the infested area, a French helicopter has been put at the disposal of the control effort for prospection purposes, and the USAID Mission has offered the use of air campaign supplies pre-positioned in Ouaddai Prefecture as back-up should the ground control effort prove ineffective. The infestation will most probably be contained.

Migratory Locusts were identified in a small area of the Mandoul Valley in Koumra Sub-prefecture, Moven-Chari Prefecture (Map 2, lower inset) in densities of 40 to 200 insects per square meter. Again, control measures are being taken against this outbreak. In addition, drying conditions shown by satellite imagery along the Mandoul and Ouaham streams during mid and late July should help in limiting food supply for the locusts and in creating a less hospitable environment for any eggs laid.

Rats and gerbils have been an important early season crop pest in Chad. Particularly intense infestations have been noted near Massaguet and Bokoro Towns in Chari- Baguirmi Prefecture, and Baro Town in Guera Prefecture. Implications Map 3 highlights those sub-prefectures for which the average mid-July NDVI for the entire sub-prefecture is different this year than in 1986. For comparison, Map 4 shows the approximate distributions of the 1986 harvest and the 1987 population by prefecture (see also Appendix Table 1). The areas which are doing better than in 1986 in terms of NDVI are also those areas with the higher concentrations of crop production and population (in 1986, the five prefectures of this area produced 66.4% of 8 MAP 3: CHAD

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9 a o4..) * - - a) * 10 I the total national grain harvest). If the rains continue to be strong in this zone, Chad could attain a substan­ tial harvest even with a crop failure in the north. There was an acute locust problem in one small area (Koumra Sub-prefecture, noted above), but this was responded to quickly and should have little effect on the outcome of the harvest in that area.

The situation in the Sahelian zone warrants however. concern, All of the areas identified by the European Economic Community funded European Agency for Development and Health (AEDES) early warning group as potentially being at-risk of food shortfall during the lean season lie 1987 with;n the zone of declining NDVI noted above (Map 5). Although 1986 produced a bumper crop for Chad as a whole, these areas experienced dry conditions during the 1986 growing season. The fact that these areas are drier yet in 1987 (as inferred from lower NDVI, Figures 4 and 5) is worrisome. Grasshopper will also have infestations a localized dctrimental effect on crop production, in spite of the current dry conditions. Not all of the areas identified by AEDES as being at-risk have required food aid this year. but it is possible that some form of aid will be required in these and surround­ ing areas in 1988 if the rainfall situation does not improve. Even if the rains return by the end of July, crop production in these areas will be much reduced from levels seen in 1986.

RETURNING Prior to April of this year, Chadian refugees returned REFUGEES from Sudan to eastern Chad (Biltine and Ouaddai Prefec­ Eastern Chad tures) in steady but low numbers. Since April, this flow has been much increased -- a change which can be to the arrival ascribed of the planting season and recent "sen­ sibilization" efforts by traditional and religious leaders of areas bordering on Sudan. Returnees to receive wishing aid have registered with German Agro-Action (GAA), a private voluntary organization operating in eastern Chad that provides UN High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) sponsored assistance. While some 2,632 returnees were registered from January through March by GAA, 3,530 returnees were registered April, 7,525 in in May, and some 9,637 people were regis­ tered in June. This brings the total of assisted returnees in eastern Chad, for 1987 through the end of June, to about 23,200 people. The UNHCR had planned to assist 30,000 returning refugees in this area in 1987 (on the order of 5% of the combined populations nd Ouaddai of Biltine Prefectures). If their plan is not changed, only 6,800 more returnees can be helped by them this

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12 year. Considering the accelerated pace at which Chadians have been coming back from Sudan, it is quite that the programmed possible number of returnees will be exceeded. At mid-May, the Mission estimated that 30,000 to 40,000 Chadian refugees had yet to return from Sudan. Subtrac­ tion of the May and June registrants leaves a conser­ vative estimate of 13,000 to 23,000 remaining Chadian refugees in Sudan. If all were to current return in 1987, assistance programs would be 16,200 exceeded by 6,200 to peoplc. It is not clear, of course, returning that all Chadians will require assistance, returnees nor that who experience a poor harvest remain in Chad. in 1987 would The refugee population estimate largely on is based the number of people being assisted however, not by UNHCR, merely on "he number of Chadians western Sudan. residing in One might reasonably assume requiring aid that a family on one side of the border will require assistance continue to on the other side of the border that until family has re-established itself. The increasing flow of returning refugees to eastern Chad will most likely not cause a food emergency in and of itself. It could, however, exacerbate the food situation should the 1987 harvest in the area be especially poor. Continued monitoring of the flow will provide an signal to the donor community early of any additional food problems caused by the returnees' presence in eastern Chad. Southern Chad During 1986, a fairly substantial number of (estimated Chadians by the UNHCR at 70,000) returned Chari and to the Moyen- Logone Oriental areas from the Republic (CAR) Central Africa and Cameroon. Since then, Chadians been returning have to southern Chad in smaller of the people numbers. Most who returned last year have re-established themselves within local communities. More recent returnees have required aid to carry them over to the next harvest. From current, early rainfall and imagery evidence, there is a potential for their 1987 harvest to be excellent.

13 Appendix

Table 1: Population and Gross 1986 Production

Estimated Estimcted Estimated % Est 1987 Pop Area Prod Prod Prefecture (000s) (ha) (mt) B.E.T. 34 - - Batha 415 62,332.0 22,964.0 Chari-Baguirmi 3.2% 617 102,411.0 68,840.0 9.6% Guera 231 140,403.0 62,032.0 Kanem 8.7% 238 34,887.0 5,343.0 Lake 0.7% 157 50,470.0 21,330.0 3.0% Ouaddai/ 419 120,100.0 49,)43.0 Biltine 6.9% 193 (included in data for Ouaddai P.) Salamat 118 18,925.0 Logonc-Occidental 9,972.0 1.4% 307 115,484.0 73,602.0 10.3% Logone-Oriental 349 79,151.0 44,731.0 6.3% Mayo-Kebbi 679 172,117.0 128,846.0 18.0% Moycn-Chari 520 138,556.0 118,760.0 Tandjile 16.6% 340 112,486.5 108,296.6 15.2% Total 4,617 1,147,322.5 713,859.6 100.0% Source: Crop estimate - USAID/Chad; Population estimate - climate zone estimate from USAID/Chad, prefecture estimates derived from FAO data

14 W 8: C D Administrative Units (Prefectures & Sub-prefectures)

Sub-Prefecture PREF

I. Abeche OUA 2. Abou Deia SAL 3. Adre OUA 4. Am Dam OUA 5. Am Timan SAL 52 6. Am Zoer BIL Bardai 7. Arada BIL 8. Ati BAT 9. Baibokoum LOr 10. Bebedjia LOr 11. Beinamar LOc /: Benoyc 12. LOc : , 13. Bere TAN / / 14. Biltine BIL 15. Bitkine GUE 16. Bokoro ChB 19 17. Bol LAK . 18. Bongor MK 19. Borkou BET 20. Bousso ChB Faya­ 21. Djedaa BAT Largeau *Fada 22. Doba LOr 23. Ennedi BET 24. Fianga MK 25. Gore LOr 26. Goundo-Gaya MK 27. Gor Beida OUA 48 30 28. Guereda BIL 29. Haraze M angeigne SAL 4 21 30. Iriba BIL 31. Kelo TAN /7." 32. Koumra MCh 4 1 33. Nyabe h174 34. Lai TAN 3 35. Lere MNK 36 Mangalme GUE 37. Mao KAN 16 31 38. Maro MCh X, .43% 4 39. Massakory ChB " 27 40. Massenya ChB 40 40 2 41. Metfil GUEa 42. Moissala MCh 43. Mongo CUE 44. Moundou LOc 1 45. Moussoro MAN 46. N'Djamena ChB 14 47. N'Gouri LAK 3 4 .N3 48 Nokou KAN J 1 49. Oum hadjer BAr 50 50 Paia MK 2 . -.. Al. Sarh MCh 1, S2. Tibesti BET

PREF Prefecture 12 BAT Batha BET Bork ou -Ennedi-Tibeati BIL Diltine ChB Charl-Baguirmi CUE Guera 0 Main Town in Sub-prefecture KAN Kanem LAR Lake LOc Logone Occ:lerntal Prefoctures LOr Logone Oriental Sub-prefectures MCh Moyen-Chari MK Mayo-Kebbi OUA Ouaddai SAL Salamat TAN Tandjile Source: Prefecture boundaries from 1980 IGN-Brazzavi lie; Sub-preteoture boundaries from undated map In Fr., map author unknown FEWS/PWA, June 1987

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