Freight Transport Report for the Island of Ireland Acknowledgements Intertradeireland Commissioned This Report in Association with the Joint Business Council
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Freight Transport Report for the Island of Ireland Acknowledgements InterTradeIreland commissioned this report in association with the Joint Business Council. We would like to thank Ian Williams and John Pharoah from WSP for their hard work and the members of the Steering Group for providing valuable insight and direction. Steering Group Members Aidan Gough InterTradeIreland Christopher Ryan InterTradeIreland Dennis Galway OBE Doreen Brown Department of Regional Development Northern Ireland Ken Jordan Department of Transport Ireland Enda Connellan Dublin Port Neil Delaney DHL Tom Wilson Freight Transport Association Reg McCabe IBEC/CBI William Poole IBEC/CBI The study team is a multi-disciplinary consortium consisting of: • WSP consultants from the Policy and Research Group; • Dr Edward Sweeney and his team from the National Institute for Transport and Logistics (NITL), Dublin; • Pantrak Transportation Limited, Bellshill, North Lanarkshire; and • Professor Alan McKinnon, Edinburgh. InterTradeIreland has commissioned this study in association with the Joint Business Council. However, the views expressed in this report and its annexes are those of the WSP-led consortium, they do not necessarily represent the view of InterTradeIreland or the Joint Business Council. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 5 Internal Transport Challenges 70 5.1 Introduction 71 1 Introduction 16 5.2 Road infrastructure and congestion 74 1.1 Purpose of the study 17 5.3 Road freight operations 80 1.2 Study approach 17 5.4 Rail freight perspectives 85 1.3 Structure of the report 18 6 Transport Challenges 2 Freight and Logistics Baseline 20 External to the Island 88 2.1 Overview 21 6.1 Introduction 89 2.2 Economic context 21 6.2 British land corridor 89 2.3 Freight movements - overview 27 6.3 Road costs and fuel pricing 92 2.4 Road 29 6.4 EU support for transport projects 97 2.5 Rail 38 6.5 Ports and shipping 99 2.6 Ports and shipping 40 6.6 Air freight 100 2.7 Air 43 7 Key findings and 3 Future Trends and recommendations 104 Planned Investments 46 8 Bibliography 114 3.1 Introduction 47 3.2 Forecasts of economic growth 47 9 Glossary and Abbreviations 118 3.3 Future road freight growth 49 Appendices, Figures & Tables 122 3.4 Planned road investment 53 Appendix A 3.5 Future port traffic growth 57 List of Stakeholders Interviewed 123 3.6 Logistics and supply chain trends 62 Appendix B Results and Analysis from the Consultation 124 4 Consultation 66 B.1 Interviews with transport providers 124 4.1 Methods 67 B.2 Interviews with users of transport 128 4.2 General findings 68 B.3 Results from the e-survey 129 Appendix C Road Schemes in Northern Ireland 132 1 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Northern Ireland and Irish total gross value added per capita 1990-2004 (constant prices) 21 Figure 2.2 Ireland: imports and exports by category, 1999-2005 22 Figure 2.3 Ireland: proportion of imports and exports by location 23 Figure 2.4 Sales in Northern Ireland by Sector 2005/06 24 Figure 2.5 Northern Ireland: exports by location by value 24 Figure 2.6 Total Cross-Border trade 1995 - 2006 25 Figure 2.7 Percentage by mode of freight tonnes delivered on island of Ireland: 1998-2005 28 Figure 2.8 Road freight activity in Ireland and Northern Ireland, 2001-2006 29 Figure 2.9 Irish domestic road freight activity in 2005 by commodity 30 Figure 2.10 Northern Ireland domestic road freight activity in 2005 by commodity 30 Figure 2.11 Freight tonnes lifted in Ireland, by vehicle type, 2001-06 31 Figure 2.12 Freight lifted in Northern Ireland, by vehicle type, 2001-05 32 Figure 2.13 Freight tonnes moved by road between NUTS 3 regions 33 Figure 2.14 Freight value moved by road between NUTS 3 regions 34 Figure 2.15 Growth in the stock of Irish and Northern Ireland registered goods vehicles 1997-2006 35 Figure 2.16 Daily heavy goods vehicle link counts 36 Figure 2.17 Indicative value of freight on Northern Ireland road network 37 Figure 2.18 Rail freight tonnes and tonne kms in Ireland 1998-2006 39 Figure 2.19 Ro-Ro Accompanied / unaccompanied and Lo-Lo freight tonnes shipped to the island of Ireland 40 Figure 2.20 Port sizes by category of goods received 42 Figure 2.21 Tonnage by category handled at ports of the island of Ireland 2001-2005 43 Figure 2.22 Cargo handled at Northern Ireland airports 43 Figure 2.23 Cargo handled at Irish airports 44 Figure 3.1 Forecasts of road traffic growth by vehicle type and road type in Ireland 49 Figure 3.2 Irish National road network, 2015 - Transport 21 55 Figure 3.3 Roads Service Northern Ireland: planned investments on the strategic network to 2015 57 Figure 3.4 Unitised traffic forecast scenarios developed for Ireland 59 Figure 9.1 Expected trends in freight transport demand by mode 124 Figure 9.2 Trends in costs of transport services by mode 124 Figure 9.3 Issues faced by transport providers 125 2 Figure 9.4 Transport infrastructure compared to Europe 126 Figure 9.5 The island of Ireland’s external links compared to Europe 126 Figure 9.6 Effectiveness of measures to alleviate congestion or its impacts on transport providers 127 Figure 9.7 Transport issues for government 128 Figure 9.8 Importance of freight transport for competitiveness 129 Figure 9.9 Current transport system’s effect on competitiveness 129 Figure 9.10 Quality of freight service 130 Figure 9.11 Level of freight transport adaptation to supply chain needs 130 Figure 9.12 Freight service value for money 130 Figure 9.13 Future road haulage vehicle loading factors 130 Figure 9.14 E-Survey: policy recommendations 131 Figure 9.15 E-Survey: challenges / concerns / difficulties 131 LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 National Population Projections to 2020, 1000 persons 48 Table 3.2 Estimated impact of the possible causes of UK decoupling of road freight tonne-kms from GDP growth 51 Table 5.1 Speed limits by road type for goods vehicles outside built-up areas 81 Table 5.2 Rail to port connections for unitised traffic 87 Table 6.1 Tonnage by ultimate international origin/destination to/from Ireland, by powered Irish registered vehicles 2006 90 Table 6.2 All Ro-Ro tonnage from/to Irish ports in 2006, by foreign port of dispatch / receipt 91 LIST OF TEXT BOXES Text Box 3.1 Bremore Deepwater Port 41 61 Text Box 5.1 Driver Certificate of Professional Competence (Driver CPC) 72 Text Box 5.2 Improvements to statistical data 73 Text Box 5.3 Leinster Orbital Route 53 77 Text Box 5.4 Planning and Delivery of the Westlink Project 79 Text Box 5.5 Rail freight perspectives in Ireland 86 Text Box 6.1 Estimates of traffic through the British land corridor 90 Text Box 6.2 Motorways of the Sea Programme 97 Text Box 6.3 Marco Polo II Programme 72 98 3 Executive Summary Freight baseline and growth trends 3 major trends are driving freight growth: Over the last 15 years the industrial structure • Construction: A major part of the recent of the Irish economy has changed radically rapid growth in road freight in Ireland1 and the rate of economic growth has been (and to a lesser extent in Northern Ireland) among the fastest of all developed economies. is associated with the high recent levels of The economy of Northern Ireland has grown investment in new construction of dwellings, steadily and is amongst the fastest growing commercial buildings and transport regional economies in the UK. infrastructure. By 2006, construction materials comprised almost half of all tonnes lifted The current modal position for the island in Northern Ireland by Northern Ireland of Ireland can be summarised as: registered goods vehicles, as well as almost two thirds of all tonnes lifted in Ireland • Road freight has long had the overwhelming by Irish registered vehicles. The massive share of inland freight movements within the infrastructure spend planned on the island island of Ireland. of Ireland, coupled with continued demand • Rail freight has declined in absolute volume for new dwellings, supported by rapid in recent years and appears unlikely to population growth, means this is unlikely recover much of this lost traffic, though it still to reduce greatly in the medium term. continues to have a role to play for certain Traffic volumes in the other sectors are specialised movements but only within Ireland, much less sensitive to short term changes rail freight having ceased completely in in the economy. Northern Ireland in 2003. • The Economic and Social Research Institute • Port and shipping services are of major (ESRI) Medium Term Review (2005) in its and increasing importance to the island of high-growth scenario for Ireland forecasts Ireland because of its open economies and an annual real growth rate in Gross National its peripheral location relative to European Product (GNP) of 4.9 per cent from 2005 and World markets. In line with the rapid to 2010 and then of 3.3 per cent through growth in economic trade, containerised to 2015. While some correction is likely, traffic over the decade to 2006 through the the ESRI Quarterly Review (Winter 2007) still island of Ireland’s ports has increased by forecasts real annual growth in GNP growth 2 125 per cent in units of TEU, while Ro-Ro of 2.3 per cent in 2008 . Current Department has increased by 70 per cent in units of vehicles. of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETINI) expectations are for real growth in Gross • Air freight has grown in recent years with Value Added (GVA) of 3 per cent per annum a small base in terms of tonnage moved, in both 2007 and 2008 in Northern Ireland, but it is significant in terms of the value of up from the 2.5 per cent experienced in the goods that it moves and their importance 2006 and growing at a higher rate in 2008 within high-tech industry sectors.