The Research Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

By conviction and action, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is an equal opportunity employer.

For more information on the Research Group: www.newyorkfed.org/research

2017/2018 Contents

To Prospective Job Candidates...... 2

A Vast Portfolio of Research Assets ...... 4

Resident Scholars Program ...... 14

Our Economists at a Glance: Current Research...... 16

The Research Group’s Policy Work ...... 18

Research Functions and Personnel

Director of Research Beverly Hirtle...... 24

Capital Markets...... 26

Financial Intermediation ...... 28

International Research...... 30

Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies ...... 32

Microeconomic Studies...... 34

Money and Payments Studies ...... 36

Regional Analysis...... 38

www.newyorkfed.org/research Follow us on Twitter: @NYFedResearch

the research and statistics group 1 To Prospective Job Candidates:

Director of Research e’re pleased that you’re interested in joining the Federal Reserve Bank Beverly Hirtle W of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

The New York Fed stands at the center of the national and world economies, playing a major role in the formulation and execution of monetary policy, the operation of payments systems, and the supervision and oversight of financial institutions and markets. Our leadership position has been especially evident as the Bank works to sustain the recovery and achieve a more stable financial system. To perform to the highest standards in such a demanding environment, we look to our stellar group of economists to provide analysis and advice based on rigorous research and a comprehensive knowledge of the issues.

To maintain our strong research capability, we’re continually adding to our team of economists. We seek to attract and retain the most highly qualified individuals by creating an environment that’s rich in opportunities. We offer our economists not only direct engagement in policy at senior levels but also broad flexibility to pursue independent research. We have in place—and are committed to maintaining— a distinguished research program that sets a high value on publication in the top professional journals. And our own research series and Liberty Street Economics blog offer economists important outlets to disseminate their research to a broader audience. Our economists also participate in leading academic and policy conferences and work closely with our distinguished visiting academics, who in recent years have included Kenneth D. West of the University of Wisconsin and Peter Diamond of MIT.

We’re excited by the many challenges and opportunities offered by the New York Fed. We’re certain that you’ll share in that excitement when you join our research team.

2 federal reserve bank of new york Linda Goldberg, Financial Intermediation Function Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance the research and statistics group 3 A Vast Portfolio of Research Assets

The New York Fed’s ur most important asset is our sixty Ph.D. economists, a concentration of expertise far larger than that of most university economics departments. Recognized as leading researchers in Research and Statistics O their fields, these individuals bring breadth and depth to their work in macroeconomics, banking, Group combines leading- payments, finance, applied microeconomics, international economics, and regional analysis. edge academic research Our economists have compiled an impressive record of publishing in the most highly regarded with rigorous policy economics and finance journals. Since 2001, ninety-seven articles by New York Fed economists have appeared in the American Economic Review, Econometrica, the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial analysis in an intellectually Economics, the Journal of Political Economy, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economic dynamic and collegial Studies, and the Review of Financial Studies. Of particular note is the fact that in 2015, two articles by environment. This our economists were awarded the Journal of Finance’s coveted Amundi Smith Breeden Prizes. Our economists’ work is also extensively represented in the top field journals and in other important outlets. brochure offers an New York Fed economists complement their publishing activities by serving on the editorial overview of our research boards of leading journals. and policy work and describes the distinctive OUR ECONOMISTS’ CURRENT EDITORIAL BOARD ASSIGNMENTS culture and resources of the Group. It also details RAJASHRI CHAKRABARTI of Applied Econometrics; JOÃO SANTOS Journal of Education Finance Empirical Economics Financial Economic Policy; the responsibilities of and Policy Journal of Financial LINDA GOLDBERG Journal Intermediation; Journal of our seven Functions, RICHARD CRUMP Journal of Financial Intermediation, Financial Services Research; of Empirical Finance Journal of Financial Services identifies our current Journal of Money, Credit, Research staff of economists, and MARCO DEL NEGRO Journal and Banking of Applied Econometrics; ANDREW HAUGHWOUT ARGIA SBORDONE highlights the economists’ Journal of Business and Journal of Regional Science Macroeconomic Dynamics Economic Statistics; Review research interests and ANTOINE MARTIN Journal of of Economics and Statistics ANDREA TAMBALOTTI Review Money, Credit, and Banking recent publications. of Economic Dynamics DOMENICO GIANNONE DONALD MORGAN Journal of Journal of Business and WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW Money, Credit, and Banking Economic Statistics; Labor Economics; LABOUR: International Journal PAOLO PESENTI Journal of Review of Labour Economics of Forecasting; Journal International Economics and Industrial Relations

4 federal reserve bank of new york Adam Copeland, Money and Payments Studies Function New York Fed–NYU Stern Conference on Financial Intermediation the research and statistics group 5 OUR ECONOMISTS’ RECENT TEACHING ACTIVITIES

OZGE AKINCI Columbia DAVID LUCCA NYU DONG BEOM CHOI Princeton DONALD MORGAN Columbia, NYU RICHARD CRUMP NYU ARGIA SBORDONE Columbia MARCO DEL NEGRO Yeshiva University, Bank of Korea, GIORGIO TOPA NYU CEMLA/Banco de México JAMES VICKERY NYU ANDREAS FUSTER NYU

L-R: Nina Boyarchenko, Capital Markets Function, Our economists are highly visible in the profession, presenting and Johanna Schwab, New York Fed Supervision Group Conference on Over-the-Counter Derivatives research at preeminent colleges and universities worldwide. They and Recent Regulatory Changes have also given papers at the American Economic Association, the American Finance Association, the Bank for International Settle- ments, the Brookings Institution, the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the International Monetary Fund, the National Bureau missing in academic departments. In addition, economists regularly of Economic Research, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the coauthor articles and make joint presentations. Adding to the col- world’s central banks. laborative nature of the Research Group is the frequent interac- tion between researchers examining the real and financial sides A First-Year Plan Focusing on of the economy. Research and Publication In the Research Group, we recognize how important it is for new An Environment Where Ideas Flourish Ph.D. hires to get their research agenda under way as quickly as The Research Group benefits greatly from the New York Fed’s possible. For this group, the primary goal in the first year is to proximity to top-tier universities. In recent years, the Group has produce research and publish in the major journals. To that end, cosponsored conferences with institutions such as Columbia, we have designed a first-year plan that allows new economists to Harvard, NYU, Penn, and Princeton. Our economists frequently devote a large majority of their time to developing publishable give seminars at these and other institutions. work. We provide additional support in the form of state-of-the-art computing capabilities, ready access to a wide range of economic  TEACHING ACTIVITY. Economists enjoy the opportunity to data, and the assistance of highly trained research analysts. teach while on staff—whether they take a leave of absence from In the first year, new Ph.D. economists also familiarize them- the Bank or teach part-time while here. selves with the New York Fed’s policy missions by interacting with economists in their area and with other professionals Bank-  SABBATICAL PROGRAM. Our sabbatical program offers econo­ wide. They may contribute to a team working on a policy issue or mists opportunities to concentrate fully on their own research. The help prepare a briefing on economic developments for the Bank’s program enables individuals pursuing a specific plan of study to president and senior officers. devote up to 100 percent of their time to qualifying work. Under the program, economists with four or more years of service A Collegial Culture at the Bank can apply to take between two and twelve months of The environment here fosters a high degree of collaboration and leave. They receive 90 percent of their salary while on the first six exchange. Economists routinely work together on policy initiatives, months of leave and 75 percent during the next six months. Econo­­ and this teamwork encourages a lively camaraderie that can be mists can also work part-time while on sabbatical if the employment

6 federal reserve bank of new york L-R: Marco Cipriani and Gabriele La Spada, both of the Money and Payments Studies Function

contributes to their professional development. For example, an the University of British Columbia, the University of California econo­mist can hold a visiting position at a university or other re- Santa Barbara, the University of Chicago, the University of Oxford, search institution, with limited teaching or other responsibilities. the University of Stockholm, and the University of Virginia. Economists have taken advantage of the sabbatical program to work at such institutions as the Bank of Portugal, the Board of  CONFERENCES. The New York Fed maintains an ambitious Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Columbia University, conference program, sponsoring or cosponsoring three to four Columbia Business School, the Einaudi Institute for Economics major conferences and one or two workshops each year. During the and Finance, the European University Institute, New York 2016-17 academic year, these events addressed a range of important University, NYU Stern, Princeton, Stanford, the Toulouse School topics, including the effects of post-crisis regulatory reforms on of Economics, the University of Bern, the University of Lausanne, the functioning of the over-the-counter derivatives markets, the the University of Virginia, and Yale. appropriate role of government in mortgage finance, the part played by financial intermediaries in the creation and spread of  VISITING SCHOLARS PROGRAM. To help maintain a stimu­ information about financial assets, the changing forces behind lating and supportive environment for staff economists, we regularly international capital flows, and the causes and consequences of invite economists from major research institutions to be visiting fluctuations in unemployment and wages. In terms of both the scholars at the Bank. The visitors present their own work and make breadth and the sheer number of conference offerings, few university themselves available to discuss our economists’ current research. economics departments can rival the Fed. The conferences draw an elite group of speakers and panelists  A GATEWAY TO ACADEMIA. The scope and seriousness of our from leading universities and business schools—including, in 2016-17, research environment are reflected in our relationship with Peter Diamond, Giuseppe Moscarini, Carmen Reinhart, Hélène academia. Many of our more senior economists come from university Rey, Hyun Song Shin, Paul Glasserman, Harrison Hong, Atif Mian, economics and finance faculties. In turn, a number of our economists Robert Shiller, Deborah Lucas, and Andrew Metrick. For econo- have gone on to accept faculty positions at prestigious colleges and mists in the Research Group, these events provide an opportunity universities, including Boston College, Brandeis, Brown, Columbia, to interact with top academics in their own and other fields. Dartmouth, Georgetown, New York University, Notre Dame, Ohio In addition, many Fed conferences provide a forum where State, Stony Brook University-SUNY, the University of Amsterdam, policymakers join with both academics and industry representatives

the research and statistics group 7 Giuseppe Moscarini, Professor of Economics, Yale University Keynote speaker, New Developments in the Macroeconomics of Labor Markets Conference

8 the federal reserve bank of new york to share their perspectives on economic problems. The exchanges and behavior of individual economic agents. Bank economists among these groups have allowed Fed economists to convey their affiliated with the Center develop and use microeconomic data concerns about financial industry vulnerabilities to industry practi- and microeconometric techniques to examine key decisions taken tioners, and to engage academics in the exploration of policy ques- by households and firms and to investigate the effects of fiscal and tions not easily addressed through standard models. Not surprisingly, monetary policy on these groups. the dialogue generated at the conferences has often proved very Two large data collection projects anchor the Center: the fruitful, setting the direction for new research, calling attention to Consumer Credit Panel and the Survey of Consumer Expectations. critical data shortages, or underscoring the need for further reforms. The Consumer Credit Panel gathers detailed quarterly data on the liabilities of a nationally representative sample of U.S.  SEMINARS. The Research Group actively encourages partici­ households. The data set is used to calculate national and regional pation in seminars and conferences. Ample funds are available measures of individual- and household-level credit balances for economists to travel to conferences in the United States and and delinquencies by product type, including mortgages, credit abroad. The Bank also provides travel support for those wishing cards, auto loans, and student loans. The Survey of Consumer to work with coauthors outside the Bank. Expectations collects information on a wide variety of household In addition, we offer a seminar series that attracts a broad expectations regarding inflation, future earnings, household group of distinguished speakers. We present several seminars a income, house prices, access to credit, layoff risk, and U.S. week—a clear indication of our commitment to the series. economic conditions overall. A third project, launched in early 2016, is gathering data from a panel of small businesses to shed Data Assets and Alliances light on trade credit, business formation, and firm dynamics. New York Fed economists have exceptional opportunities to join While central banks are often thought to specialize in with others in the coordinated study of specialized economic data. macroeconomic analysis, the data and research emerging from the Center for Microeconomic Data contribute importantly to the Fed’s  CENTER FOR MICROECONOMIC DATA. The New York Fed’s economic insight and policy decisions. The Center’s regular releases Center for Microeconomic Data, inaugurated in December 2013, on household credit conditions and the consumer outlook are also has become an important hub for research on the expectations followed closely by government policymakers and the media, and Continued on page 12

VISITING SCHOLARS IN 2017

XIAOHONG CHEN ERIC FRENCH CHARLIE KAHN GEORGE PENNACCHI ROBERT TOWNSHEND Yale University University College University of Illinois, University of Illinois, MIT London Urbana—Champaign Urbana—Champaign GORDON DAHL MATHIAS TRABANDT University of California, MARK GERTLER PETE KLENOW GREG PHELAN Frie Universität Berlin San Diego New York University Stanford University Williams College ERNST-LUDWIG VON RAFAEL DIX-CARNEIRO ITAY GOLDSTEIN ADRIANA IMRAN RASUL University THADDEN Duke University University of LLERAS-MUNEY College London University of Mannheim Pennsylvania, Wharton University of California, WILL DOBBIE RAFAEL REPULLO CEMFI ANDREW WINTON School Los Angeles Princeton University University of Minnesota JOHN SABELHAUS TAL GROSS MAGNE MOGSTAD GAUTI EGGERTSSON University of Maryland MICHAEL WOODFORD Columbia University University of Chicago Brown University Columbia University ADAM SACARNY JUSTINE HASTINGS MATTHEW FRANCO FIORDELISI Columbia University JONATHAN WRIGHT Brown University NOTOWIDIGDO University of Rome Johns Hopkins Northwestern University PHILIP STRAHAN KATE HO University Boston College Columbia University

the research and statistics group 9 Markus Baldauf, Andrea Eisfeldt, University of British Columbia, UCLA, Anderson School Sauder School of Business of Management

NEW YORK FED SEMINAR SERIES: SELECTED PRESENTATIONS, 2017

■ “The Pricing of Tail ■ “Structural ■ “Gainfully Employed? ■ “Estimating ■ “Market Efficiency Risk and the Equity Interpretation of Assessing the Informational Frictions with Micro and Macro Premium: Evidence Vector Autoregressions Employment and in Sticky Relationships,” Information,” Paul from International with Incomplete Earnings of For-Profit Olivier Darmouni, Glasserman, Columbia Option Markets,” Torben Identification: Revisiting College Students Using Columbia Business University Anderson, Northwestern the Role of Oil Supply Administrative Data,” School ■ University, Kellogg and Demand Shocks,” Stephanie Cellini, “What Is the Source School of Management Christiane Baumeister, George Washington ■ “Information Use in of the Intergenerational University of Notre Dame University College Loan Decisions,” Correlation in ■ “Nonlinear Panel Data Rajeev Darolia, Earnings?” Limor Methods for Dynamic ■ “Firms, Sorting, ■ “Informed Trading and University of Missouri Golan, Washington Heterogeneous Agent and Gender Wage Option Prices: Evidence University in St. Louis Models,” Manuel Differentials: Evidence from Activist Trading,” ■ “Prepayment Risk and ■ Arellano, CEMFI from Employer- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Expected MBS Returns,” “Eyes Wide Shut? Mortgage Insurance Employee Matched Swiss Finance Institute Andrea Eisfeldt, UCLA, ■ “High-Frequency Data,” Mary Ann Anderson School of during the Housing ■ Trading and Market Bronson, Georgetown “Moral Hazard in an Management Boom,” Ben Keys, Performance,” Markus University Oligopolistic Insurance University of Baldauf, University Market,” Marco ■ “International Credit Pennsylvania, Wharton of British Columbia, ■ “Spatial Equilibrium, Cosconati, Bank of Italy Supply Shocks,” Andrea School Sauder School of Search Frictions, and Ferrero, University of ■ ■ “Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, Business Efficient Regulation “Incarceration, Oxford in the Taxi Industry,” Recidivism, and and Reputation in ■ “Why Does Nicholas Buchholz, Employment,” Gordon ■ “Actors in the Child Federal Governments,” Idiosyncratic Risk Princeton University Dahl, University of Development Process,” Rishabh Kirpalani, Increase with Market California, San Diego Chris Flinn, New York New York University Risk?” Soehnke University ■ Bartram, Warwick “Missing Growth from Business School ■ “Granular Comparative Creative Destruction,” Advantage,” Cecile Pete Klenow, Stanford Gaubert, University of University California, Berkeley

10 federal reserve bank of new york Alessandra Voena, Basil Williams, University of Chicago New York University

■ “Electoral Incentives ■ “Intermediaries ■ “Horizontal and ■ “House Prices and the ■ “Marriage, Social and the Allocation of as Safety Providers,” Vertical Polarization: Allocation of Consumer Insurance, and Labor Public Funds,” Maurizio Enrico Perotti, Task-Specific Credit,” Mingzhu Tai, Supply,” Alessandra Mazzocco, University of University of Amsterdam Technological Change Harvard University Voena, University of California, Los Angeles in a Multisector Chicago ■ ■ “The History of the Economy,” Yongseok “Skills, Job Tasks, ■ “Optimal Automatic Cross Section of Stock Shin, Washington and Productivity in ■ “Incentive- Stabilizers,” Alisdair Returns,” Michael University in St. Louis Teaching: Evidence Constrained Risk McKay, Boston University Roberts, University of from a Randomized Sharing, Segmentation, Pennsylvania, Wharton ■ “Fearing the Fed: How Trial,” Eric Taylor, and Asset Pricing,” ■ “Long-Term Care School Wall Street Reads Main Harvard University Pierre-Olivier Weill, Insurance and the Street,” Dongho Song, University of California, ■ Family,” Corina ■ “Bank Risk Taking Boston College “Should We Use Los Angeles Mommaerts, University and the Real Economy: Linearized Models to of Wisconsin Evidence from the ■ “A Simpler Theory Calculate Fiscal ■ “Stress Tests and Housing Boom and of Optimal Capital Multipliers?” Mathias Bank Portfolio Choice,” ■ “Earnings Inequality Its Aftermath,” David Taxation,” Stefanie Trabandt, School Basil Williams, New and the Minimum Scharfstein, Harvard Stantcheva, Harvard of Business and York University Wage: Evidence from Business School University Economics at Freie Brazil,” Christian Moser, Universität Berlin ■ “Preferences for Columbia Business ■ “Cyclical Labor Supply ■ “Macroeconomic Tuition and the Role of School with Long-Term Jobs,” Fluctuations with HANK ■ “The Economics of Information,” Ludger Benjamin Schoefer, and SAM: An Analytical the Fed Put,” Annette Woessmann, CESifo ■ “Choosing Your Pond: University of California, Approach,” Vincent Vissing-Jorgensen, Revealed-Preference ■ “Mechanism Berkeley Sterk, University College University of California, Estimates of Relative Selection and Trade London Berkeley Income Concerns,” Formation on Swap Ricardo Perez-Truglia, ■ “Are Larger Banks Execution Facilities: UCLA, Anderson School Valued More Highly?” An Analysis of CDS of Management René Stulz, Ohio State Trades,” Haoxiang Zhu, University MIT Sloan School of Management

the research and statistics group 11 Continued from page 9 have helped shape public debate on issues such as the nation’s  NEW YORK FEDERAL STATISTICAL RESEARCH DATA CENTER. In growing student debt burden. Moreover, the Center’s work has 2005, the Research Group, acting on behalf of the New York Fed, served as a catalyst for new research by academic economists, who helped establish a U.S. Census Bureau Research Data Center in often partner with our economists on studies of this rich body of New York City, now part of the Federal Statistical Network. The household and firm data. Bank is a member of the consortium that supports the data center, joining other leading universities and research organizations in  INTERNATIONAL BANKING RESEARCH NETWORK. Another New York State. important initiative of interest to new economist hires is the The presence of the Federal Statistical Research Data Center International Banking Research Network (IBRN), a community in the New York area facilitates an important strand of empirical of central bank researchers who study global banks and their research in the Bank and the region. At the center, researchers activities. Established in 2012 by a New York Fed economist who have completed a rigorous project review process can access and researchers from Austria, Germany, and the United Kingdom, in a secure facility selected confidential firm and individual micro the IBRN seeks to improve policy discussion by using bank- data gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau and many other federal level regulatory data in the joint analysis of key questions. partners, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Agency for Researchers in the network have access to the micro data of Healthcare Research and Quality. the balance sheets of banks in their jurisdictions, a resource The New York Fed’s consortium membership entitles Research that allows them to design experiments and achieve results not Group economists to use the facility to conduct research with no possible with studies that use more aggregated data; moreover, additional lab fees or the need to travel. by sharing the results of their analysis of the micro data with their IBRN colleagues, the researchers can draw A Rich Computing Environment lessons reflecting the experience of multiple countries. The Our state-of-the-art Research computing environment offers usefulness of this approach to banking research is reflected in economists a wide array of technology resources, the ability to the steady expansion of the IBRN membership; the network take advantage of real and financial data series, and electronic now encompasses more than twenty-five central banks and access to academic journals. Dedicated information technology international organizations. and automation support services are available to meet researchers’ The IBRN’s first project, undertaken in 2013 and individual needs. implemented by eleven countries, explored how funding shocks affecting parent banks were transmitted to foreign Extensive Professional Support countries through cross-border banking activities. The A superb group of administrative, editorial, design, develop- network’s second project, begun in 2014, examined the effects ment, and library professionals provide support for economists’ of macroprudential policy changes on global banks’ lending research efforts and ensure the effective communication of re- and funding in their home countries and abroad. Researchers search findings. from sixteen central banks, the Bank for International Joining this group of support personnel are roughly forty Settlements, the International Monetary Fund, and the research analysts, who offer skilled and energetic assistance European Systemic Risk Board participated in the project, gathering data, conducting statistical analysis, and preparing which illuminated why banks in different countries may materials for presentations. have responded differently to policies enacted in the wake of Our RAs are typically recent college graduates who intend the global financial crisis. Currently, the network is focusing to pursue a Ph.D. in economics. Seventy percent of the Research its efforts on the little-understood subject of international Group’s RAs in the last five years have gone on to graduate school, monetary spillovers. Research teams are investigating the channels many to top-five programs in economics. In addition, our research through which countries’ conventional and unconventional analysts did extraordinarily well this year in the competition for monetary policy actions are affecting international as well as National Science Foundation fellowships, securing five of the roughly domestic lending. thirty awards given for graduate study in the field of economics.

12 federal reserve bank of new york Wide Internet Exposure large numbers of readers and receive frequent attention from the Personal web pages residing on the New York Fed’s public site, media and from financial bloggers in particular. www.newyorkfed.org/research/economists/, heighten economists’ Liberty Street Economics publishes three posts per week, more visibility in the academic, policy, and business communities. when key topics are explored in detail. To generate dialogue with The pages feature the economist’s biography and field of in- the public, it also posts reader comments and author responses. For terest as well as links to curricula vitae, publications and working the year ended June 2017, the blog featured 100 economics posts. papers, and social-media output. These pages are among the most visited on our website. The Economic Policy Review While economists are encouraged to publish in external journals, Liberty Street Economics Blog they also reach a large and influential audience by publishing in The Liberty Street Economics blog, launched in 2011, provides a the Bank’s Economic Policy Review. The review features new policy- way for our economists to bring their research to the attention of oriented research by New York Fed economists, papers by affiliated a broader public. The posts, written in an accessible style, attract economists, and the proceedings of Bank-sponsored conferences.

KEY FEATURES OF THE RESEARCH COMPUTING ENVIRONMENT

■ A high-performance ■ Access to software to a high-performance secure external hard drives, computing environment of resources. Numerous computing cluster. high-end color printers, Linux clusters. In Research, econometric software and secure USB drives— ■ Access to cloud computing. parallel computing is packages and modules are complement these External high-performance performed by multiple available, including MATLAB, work-station features. clusters and graphics process- clusters with high-speed Stata-MP, Mathematica, SAS ing units (GPUs) are available ■ Convenient remote access. networks connecting Grid, Python, Julia, Fortran, for academic research An array of automated tools hundreds of processors. the R programming language, projects. streamlines research Application servers support EViews, GAUSS, and ArcGIS. conducted at home or while parallel and serial work, with Technical word-processing ■ Access to the Bank’s secure traveling; BlackBerry and standard and specialized packages, such as Scientific network. The Bank’s secure iPhone devices are available econometric software Workplace and WinEdt, are internal network can be used for mobile communication. resources available in the fully supported. Efficient and to conduct important policy office or remotely. easy-to-use versioning work as well as to access ■ A committed team of packages such as SmartGit email, internal Federal technical support ■ Data. A full range of economic are readily available. Reserve System websites, specialists. The Technology and financial data is available and productivity applications Services group provides for independent research ■ A separate Research and utilities. local, specialized services projects as well as for use in network for collaboration dedicated to the computing monetary policy initiatives with external colleagues. ■ Versatile workstation needs of Research econo- associated with a wide variety The flexible Research options. A customizable mists. They work alongside of research topics. Accessible Network (RAN) environment of Windows, economists and are available supports economists’ Linux, and Mac desktop, ■ Robust data-storage via PC, email, and phone. In academic work and collabo- laptop, and virtual solutions solutions. Our Research addition, the team works ration by providing conve- can be combined to meet Storage Area Network, with closely with the National nient access to internet economists’ research needs. the capacity to store Service Desk, which is resources from inside the A virtual workstation option hundreds of terabytes of available 24/7, to provide Bank as well as access to affords simultaneous access data, supports analysis of integrated solutions for the Research Group resources to the Bank network and the large data sets on the Bank’s Research Group’s network from outside the Bank RAN through one device. A network and is protected by computing business needs. through the internet. This variety of peripherals— access controls, backups, network also supports access including large monitors, and contingency locations.

the research and statistics group 13 Resident Scholars Program

Our Program for enneth D. West is the John D. MacArthur and Ragnar Frisch Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Professor West has published widely in the fields Resident Scholars Kof macroeconomics, finance, international economics, and econometrics.­ He has held attracts to the Bank visiting positions at the European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of outstanding researchers Brazil, the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, St. Louis, and Kansas City. Professor with international West has been a co-editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking since 2001 and previously reputations. For 2016-17, served as co-editor of the American Economic Review. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society the Bank hosted and has been the recipient of the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, and the John M. Stauffer National Fellowship in Public Policy at the Hoover Institution. Kenneth D. West Peter Diamond is an Institute Professor Emeritus at MIT, where he taught from 1966 to 2011. and Peter Diamond as Professor Diamond has written on public finance, social insurance, behavioral economics, uncer- resident scholars. tainty and search theories, and macroeconomics. He has been President of the American Economic Association, of the Econometric Society, and of the National Academy of Social Insurance. Together with Dale T. Mortensen and Christopher A. Pissarides, Professor Diamond was awarded the 2010 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for theoretical research on search frictions in markets. Resident scholars, selected from the top academic and policy institutions in areas related to the Bank’s broad policy interests, join the Bank for a stay of several months. While in residence, they are considered members of the Research Group and are given access to resources on the same basis as other key Bank staff. The scholars pursue their own research while providing intellectual leadership by advising and collaborating with our economists. They present their work at Group seminars and attend presentations by others. Resident scholars also work closely with the research director and have the opportunity to contribute to the Bank’s policymaking discussions on such topics as monetary policy and macroeconomics, banking regulation, capital markets, financial stability, and applied microeconomics.

14 federal reserve bank of new york Peter Diamond, MIT Resident Scholar, 2016-17

FORMER RESIDENT SCHOLARS

MARK J. FLANNERY MARK GERTLER SIMON GILCHRIST CHRISTOPHER SIMS S. VISH VISWANATHAN Bank of America Eminent Henry and Lucy Moses Professor of Economics, Professor of Economics, Duke University Scholar in Finance, Professor of Economics, Boston University Princeton University University of Florida New York University JIANG WANG NOBUHIRO KIYOTAKI SURESH M. Mizuho Financial Group DOUGLAS GALE ERIC GHYSELS Professor of Economics, SUNDARESAN Professor, MIT Sloan Silver Professor and Edward M. Bernstein Princeton University Chase Manhattan Bank School of Management Professor of Economics, Distinguished Professor Foundation Professor of New York University of Economics, JOHN LEAHY Financial Institutions, University of North Professor of Economics, Columbia Business Carolina at Chapel Hill New York University School

the research and statistics group 15 Our Economists at a Glance: Current Research

Our economists engage JAISON ABEL Empirical research on the DONG BEOM CHOI Theoretical and microfoundations of urban agglomeration empirical research on monetary policy in a variety of innovative economies and the spatial distribution of transmission with financial frictions; liquidity and financial stability. research projects, human capital. SUSHANT ACHARYA Theoretical research RICHARD CRUMP Econometric research some reflecting their on information-constrained decision making, on asset price dynamics, with a focus on independent research the provision of safe assets in liquidity risk premium modeling and forecasting. traps, the role of sentiments in explaining interests and others economic fluctuations, and labor contracts grounded in their policy and their impact on macro outcomes. work for the Bank. Here OZGE AKINCI Research on spillovers from U.S. monetary policy normalization are just a few examples: to emerging countries subject to volatile capital flows and currency mismatches; boom-bust credit cycles in open economies. MARY AMITI Trade finance; effects of trade liberalization on productivity, prices, wages, the wage skill premium, and product quality. NINA BOYARCHENKO Research examining how large financial institutions participate in credit markets and how these choices affect the pricing and liquidity of credit instruments. RAJASHRI CHAKRABARTI, ANDREW HAUGHWOUT, DONGHOON LEE, WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW Effects of student lending on the economy; origination and delinquency trends in household debt, including mortgage debt. Mary Amiti

16 federal reserve bank of new york monetary policies and risk conditions, MAXIM PINKOVSKIY Empirical and prudential policy tools. research on inequality and welfare measures and on the determinants PAUL GOLDSMITH-PINKHAM of economic growth; analysis of Empirical research assessing the role macroeconomic and labor market of consumer debt in the macroeconomy impacts of health policy, including the and evaluating the costs and benefits Affordable Care Act. of debtor protection and social insurance policies. MATTHEW PLOSSER Empirical research related to the supervision SEBASTIAN HEISE Empirical and and regulation of financial institutions, theoretical research on producer household borrowing behavior, prices and customer-supplier private equity, and monetary policy relationships in international trade; announcement effects. research on the spatial mobility of workers. AYŞEGÜL ŞAHIN Theoretical and empirical research on labor market FATIH KARAHAN The role of geo- dynamics, with an emphasis on the graphical mismatch in unemployment causes and consequences of long-run during the Great Recession; the Matthew Plosser labor market trends. persistence of earnings shocks over the life cycle; the effect of the returns ASANI SARKAR Research on systemic risk, the effects of post-crisis liquidity MARCO DEL NEGRO Forecasting to skills on the college premium. regulations, and bitcoin. and policy analysis using dynamic GIZEM KOSAR Empirical and theoretical stochastic general equilibrium models. research on public assistance programs, GIORGIO TOPA Empirical research on referrals in the labor market, on job KESHAV DOGRA Theoretical research taxes, and consumer bankruptcy. search, and on subjective expectations; on fiscal policy during liquidity traps. ANNA KOVNER Empirical research on survey data collection. THOMAS EISENBACH Research on systemic risk and banking; the effects the effect of horizon-dependent risk of post-crisis financial regulation. aversion on individual behavior and GABRIELE LA SPADA Theoretical equilibrium asset prices. and empirical research on money- STEFANO EUSEPI Research on the like assets and monetary policy implications of different theories of transmission through mutual funds. expectations formation for monetary DONGHOON LEE Empirical research on and fiscal policy design. consumer credit, the mortgage market, ANDREAS FUSTER Empirical research student loans, and household finance. on mortgage markets, the Fed’s DAVID LUCCA Research on the mortgage-backed securities purchases, economics of supervision for large, and the pricing of prepayment risk. complex financial institutions and DOMENICO GIANNONE Nowcasting, on the monetary policy transmission forecasting, and policy analysis with mechanism. big data. LAURA PILOSSOPH Empirical and LINDA GOLDBERG Research on theoretical research on the sources international financial flows, focusing of long-term unemployment and on on global banks and nonbank financial the connection between assortative intermediaries, advanced-economy matching and income inequality. Asani Sarkar

the research and statistics group 17 The Research Group’s Policy Work

Our economists engage n 2016, the Research Group began work on a major policy initiative to explore the post-crisis persistence of low interest rates in the United States. Understanding the forces behind this phe- in policy-oriented I nomenon is particularly important for the conduct of monetary policy: In a low rate environment, analysis of a wide range nominal interest rates are much more likely to hit the zero lower bound, leaving central banks less of important issues. latitude to counter negative economic shocks. Such an understanding is also informative for our researchers’ assessment of the current and future state of the macroeconomy. Their analysis helps The initiative has engaged economists from across the Group. Macroeconomists have investi- guide the Federal gated the extent to which the “headwinds” created by the nation’s slow recovery from the Great Reserve’s assessment Recession might be a source of the persistent low rates; they have also taken the lead in considering the implications of low rates for monetary policy. International economists have studied the global of the economy, dimensions of the phenomenon, including potential international spillovers from the monetary formulation of monetary actions undertaken by the United States and by foreign central banks. Financial economists have policy, and monitoring looked at the implications of the low interest rate environment for risk premia across asset classes, and microeconomists have used data on households’ income and consumption to illuminate the of financial system impact of demographics on saving behavior—another potential piece of the low-rate puzzle. stability. The project is envisioned as a three-year effort, and the work is still in the discovery phase. To date, the economists have reported their findings in several briefings with New York Fed Bank president William Dudley and other senior Bank officials. In a first effort to put forward a hypothesis about the causes of the low rates more formally, four macroeconomists—Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, Marc Giannoni, and Andrea Tambalotti—presented the paper “Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest” at the spring 2017 Brookings Institution conference. The paper, which will be published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, attributes the low interest rates in the

18 federal reserve bank of new york Donghoon Lee, Microeconomic Studies Function, at a briefing the federal reserve bank of new york 19 L-R: Dong Beom Choi, Financial Intermediation Function, and Andreas Fuster, Capital Markets Function

United States primarily to the scarcity of safe and liquid assets, The FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION staff conducts research and especially Treasury securities—a shortage that, exacerbated by policy analysis on issues relating to financial intermediation and the financial crises of the last decade, has become an increasingly financial markets, including the behavior and health of financial prominent feature of the global economic landscape. institutions, financial market innovation, and the development of supervisory tools and techniques. Economists examine these issues Individually, our seven research Functions apply their particular from both a macroeconomic and a microeconomic perspective, expertise to a wide range of other policy responsibilities: with an emphasis on the performance and stability of financial CAPITAL MARKETS contributes to the formulation and imple- markets and core institutions. Recently, they have studied the mentation of monetary policy and the monitoring of market and evolution of the banking industry, frictions in the mortgage financial stability by developing new analytical tools and providing securitization process, bank funding patterns, the role of central rigorous analysis to senior Bank management. Recent work by the bank liquidity provision, credit derivatives and other financial staff analyzes transparency in over-the-counter markets, dealer po- innovations, and risk management and corporate governance issues. sitioning, liquidity in fixed-income markets, the pricing of the term INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH economists conduct research and policy structure of interest rates and credit, the inflationary expectations analysis on global macroeconomic, trade, and finance issues affecting embedded in financial market prices, the vulnerability of financial the economy and monetary policy of the United States. Recent topics institutions to systemic risk, the links between financial intermedi- examined include international policy coordination, unconventional ary balance sheet management and asset price dynamics, and the monetary policies, cross-border financial flows, commodity prices, economics of supervision for large, complex financial institutions. and risk premiums in international bond and currency markets.

20 federal reserve bank of new york In MACROECONOMIC AND MONETARY STUDIES, economists Business Leaders Survey, monthly indexes of coincident economic advise senior Bank management on monetary policy issues indicators, and the Beige Book report. Recent areas of analysis in- through regular briefings in advance of each FOMC meeting. They clude human capital and local economic development, the magni- monitor and analyze current economic and financial conditions tude and sources of urban agglomeration economies, regional wage and assess risks to the outlook. Economists provide forecasts inequality, the relationship between prices and rents in New York and nowcasts for the U.S. economy using modern statistical City, the competitiveness of Puerto Rico’s economy, and the labor and structural methodologies, including a nowcasting platform market for recent college graduates after the Great Recession. and the Bank’s own estimated DSGE model, to accompany more traditional judgmental forecasts. In recent work, Function The Interplay of Research and Policy economists have introduced new measures of labor market slack Academic research and policy analysis can give rise to great using firm- and household-level data on job-to-job transitions and synergies at the New York Fed. Many economists find that earnings growth, and they have used the Bank’s DSGE model to their policy work informs their research very directly. A case estimate the economy’s natural rate of interest, a useful reference in point is the work conducted by Andreas Fuster and Andrew point for setting monetary policy. Other notable efforts include Haughwout on the resiliency of the U.S. housing market. As part quantifying the effects of changes in financial conditions on the of their normal policy responsibilities, the two economists help economy and producing a term structure of inflation expectation monitor financial system stability—Fuster, by analyzing the using a large set of survey measures. performance of financial markets and firms, and Haughwout, MICROECONOMIC STUDIES contributes to monetary policy for- by examining developments in household and public finance. mulation and financial stability by providing policy advice on a In 2016, motivated by the recognition that mortgage defaults wide variety of subjects, ranging from auction design to state and contributed heavily to the destabilization of the financial system local fiscal policy, with a special focus on consumer behavior. The that precipitated the Great Recession, Fuster and Haughwout Function also plays a unique role in the development of new micro undertook a joint research effort to assess the current vulnerabil- data sets that enable the Bank to formulate accurate and fact-based ity of U.S. mortgage holders to adverse price shocks. policy responses, including the Consumer Credit Panel, the student For their investigation, the authors used a novel data set loan data set, the Survey of Consumer Expectations, and—with available to New York Fed researchers that combines loan-level the Regional Analysis Function—regional business surveys. data on residential mortgages with data on borrower creditwor- MONEY AND PAYMENTS STUDIES analyzes the infrastructure at thiness. Tracking the evolution of housing leverage—the ratio of the heart of the financial system. Key elements of study are the housing debt to housing values—from 2005 to 2016, they found interbank and money markets—such as the federal funds, repo, that leverage rose sharply from the start of the period through and other over-the-counter markets—as well as payments and 2012, when housing prices began to recover, and then steadily settlement systems. Recent work includes analyzing activity in dropped to levels near pre-crisis lows by early 2016. To gain a the federal funds markets, drafting proposals aimed at improv- finer measure of the resiliency of residential mortgages, the au- ing monetary policy implementation, assessing the stability of repo thors then conducted stress tests of mortgage-holding households, and other short-term funding markets, understanding the historical ​ simulating the recession’s peak-to-trough price drop and other evolution of the financial sector, and examining the failure and price declines to see how leverage would be affected if adverse resolution of large financial firms. The Function has also analyzed conditions were to return. The authors concluded that while the strategies for mitigating risk in payments and settlement systems. riskiness of the household sector has fallen significantly since the The REGIONAL ANALYSIS staff analyzes and monitors regional crisis, the sector remains vulnerable to very severe price declines. economic conditions, with an emphasis on developments in the Like much of the research conducted at the New York Fed, Second Federal Reserve District. Research findings are presented Fuster and Haughwout’s investigation of risks in the mortgage fi- to Bank senior management as well as to the District’s broader nance sector has important policy implications. The authors’ find- business, research, and policy communities and to the public. Staff ings offer an early warning of possible problems in a key sector members produce the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the of the economy and provide an impetus for policymakers to take

the research and statistics group 21 steps to address the weakness. The results have been presented demonstrates how New York Fed economists, through their in a Liberty Street Economics blog series on housing and home own- engagement with policy issues, have been able to push forward ership and will be published in an upcoming article in the Bank’s the research frontier in their field. Economic Policy Review. The authors plan to update and release the stress test results semiannually going forward. Opportunities to Share Policy Work Externally The complementarities between economists’ policy assignments While policy assignments stimulate new research, the relation- and research are also evident in the recent work of financial econ- ship is a reciprocal one: our economists’ research regularly finds omists Marco Cipriani and Gabriele La Spada on money market many applications to policy responsibilities. These applications often funds (MMFs). In a joint policy project with the Bank’s Markets take the form of new tools for assessing the state of the economy or Group, Cipriani, La Spada, and research analyst Philip Mulder in- for analyzing the forces behind a variety of economic developments. vestigated the effects of regulations implemented by the Securities Economists who succeed in translating their research into tools of this and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2016 to prevent destabilizing kind will have significant opportunities to share their policy innova- runs in the MMF industry. The regulations require institutional tions with other researchers and the public. prime funds—one sector of the industry—to price their shares In recent years, for example, the Research Group has used according to the market value of the underlying securities rather the Bank’s website and Liberty Street Economics blog to showcase than maintaining a fixed share price of $1.00; the rules also re- the forecasting tools developed by our economists. Beginning in quire all prime funds to adopt a system of redemption gates and 2014, members of the Macroeconomic Studies Function made the fees in times of financial stress. The team’s analysis of the new blog their platform for presenting regular forecasts of output and rules, documented in a March 2017 Liberty Street Economics post, inflation from the Bank’s DSGE model. In April 2016, others in showed that the reform led to massive outflows of funds from the Group began weekly web releases of the New York Fed Staff the prime MMF sector into government MMFs, which were not Nowcast, a “real-time” estimate of current- and next-quarter GDP affected by the regulations. growth computed from a wide range of high-frequency economic To examine the reactions of MMF investors and portfolio data. This year saw the introduction of an interactive version of managers to the SEC rules in more detail, Cipriani, La Spada, and the Nowcast, an important innovation that allows users to visual- Mulder in June released a longer analysis in the Bank’s working ize the impact of incoming data on the estimates produced by our paper series. In their paper, intended for eventual publication in economists’ model. an academic journal, the authors note that under the new rules, In a further effort to share the Bank’s forecasting work with a investment in the prime MMF sector lost some of the character- broader audience, our economists have implemented the estima- istics of money it had previously enjoyed, whereas investment tion of the New York Fed’s DSGE model in the free, open-source in the government MMF sector did not. The authors then argue programming language Julia and posted the code on Github, a that after the new SEC regulations took effect, the large outflow web-based hosting service. This year, they extended the codes from prime into government funds was consistent with investors’ available in Julia to include those needed to produce economic trying to preserve the close correspondence of their MMF invest- forecasts and to infer unobservable variables such as the natural ment to money—a pattern that contrasts markedly with earlier rate of interest and the output gap. shifts in MMF industry composition, which stemmed principally In September 2017, the Group will begin publishing monthly from changes in investors’ perception of, or appetite for, risk. updates of another policy product, the Underlying Inflation The authors’ findings support a recent academic literature pos- Gauge (UIG). A measure of the long-run, or persistent, compo- tulating that investors have a preference for money-like assets. nent of aggregate inflation, the UIG has proved especially useful The authors provide concrete evidence of this preference and pro- in detecting turning points in trend inflation and has outper- duce a specific estimate of its extent by analyzing the behavior of formed core inflation measures in tests of forecast accuracy. The the spread between the yields on prime and government MMFs. UIG updates, like the DSGE and Nowcast releases, will give the Since investors’ preference for money-like assets has not yet been public and the research community greater insight into the tools formally modeled in the literature, Cipriani and La Spada’s work the New York Fed employs for policy analysis and prediction.

22 federal reserve bank of new york Research Functions and Personnel 24 the research group of the federal reserve bank of new york Director of Research Beverly Hirtle

Beverly Hirtle is an executive vice president and head of the Research and Statistics Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Appointed research director in September 2016, Beverly is responsible for the economic and financial policy analysis prepared by the Group, including briefings in support of the Bank president’s participation in the FOMC. She is also a member of the Bank’s Management Committee.

Beverly joined the Bank in 1986 as an economist in the Domestic Financial Markets Function. Prior to becoming research director, she was a senior vice president in the Financial Intermediation Function. Her career at the Bank also includes a four-year assignment in a research-oriented unit within the Supervision Group charged with analyzing domestic and international supervisory policy issues.

Beverly has worked extensively on issues relating to bank capital adequacy and super- visory stress testing, and on the calibration of regulatory capital requirements. Among her other roles, Beverly was deputy chair of the Federal Reserve Model Oversight Group, which oversees the design and implementation of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review and Dodd-Frank Act stress tests. In addition, she is a member of the Large Institution Supervision Coordinating Committee, which coordinates the Federal Reserve’s supervision of large, complex financial institutions, and recently coauthored a paper describing the Bank’s supervision of these firms.

Beverly’s academic research includes work on stress testing and bank supervision, as well as bank holding company dividend and repurchase activity, disclosure and risk management, the impact of derivatives on bank risk and credit supply, and recent trends in retail banking activity. She has published in a number of journals, including the Journal of Financial Intermediation, the Journal of Banking and Finance, and the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.

Beverly holds a B.A. in economics and American studies from Amherst College and a Ph.D. in economics from MIT.

the research and statistics group 25 Capital Markets Nina Boyarchenko Michael Fleming

The Capital Markets Function conducts research CAPITAL MARKETS STAFF and policy analysis on asset pricing and market NINA BOYARCHENKO DAVID LUCCA microstructure and on the interaction between Ph.D., Chicago, 2011 Ph.D., Northwestern, 2006 markets, institutions, and the macroeconomy. INTERESTS: Asset pricing; INTERESTS: Asset pricing; macroeconomics; market macroeconomics; A close working relationship with the Bank’s liquidity. monetary policy.

Trading Desk, well-established contacts with RICHARD CRUMP OR SHACHAR market participants, and strong ties to business Ph.D., UC Berkeley, 2009 Ph.D., NYU, 2013 INTERESTS: Econometric INTERESTS: Market frictions; school finance departments create a unique theory; financial credit risk; financial environment for financial market research. economics. econometrics.

FERNANDO DUARTE PETER VAN TASSEL Ph.D., MIT, 2011 Ph.D., Princeton, 2015 RECENT RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE: INTERESTS: Asset pricing; INTERESTS: Financial macroeconomics; economics; asset pricing; ■ liquidity in equity, ■ risk management and monetary policy. option pricing. fixed-income, and stress test design, derivatives markets, MICHAEL FLEMING DESI VOLKER ■ macroprudential policy Ph.D., Harvard, 1994 Ph.D., Copenhagen ■ the interaction between and monetary policy, INTERESTS: Market Business School, 2016 financial institutions’ and microstructure; financial INTERESTS: Asset pricing; balance sheets and ■ the links between intermediation; monetary fixed income; market liquidity, financial markets and policy. macro-finance. ■ estimation of risk the macroeconomy. premia in equity, ANDREAS FUSTER fixed-income, and Ph.D., Harvard, 2011 derivatives markets, INTERESTS: Household finance; real estate finance; ■ analysis of financial market stress and behavioral economics. the measurement of systemic risk,

26 federal reserve bank of new york RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS

NINA BOYARCHENKO ANDREAS FUSTER PETER VAN TASSEL “Term Structures of Asset “Securitization and the “Global Variance Term Prices and Returns,” with Fixed-Rate Mortgage,” Premia and Intermediary David Backus and Mikhail with James Vickery. Review Risk Appetite,” with Erik Vogt. Andreas Fuster Chernov. Journal of Financial of Financial Studies 28, Federal Reserve Bank of New Economics, forthcoming. no. 1 (2015). York Staff Reports, no. 789 (2016). RICHARD CRUMP DAVID LUCCA “Fundamental Disagreement,” “The Pre-FOMC Announcement DESI VOLKER with Philippe Andrade, Drift,” with Emanuel Moench. “Monetary Policy Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Journal of Finance 70, no. 1 Uncertainty and Interest Moench. Journal of Monetary (2015). Winner of the 2015 Rates.” Unpublished paper, Economics 83, no. 1 (2016). Amundi Smith Breeden Prize December 2016. Peter Van Tassel for best paper. FERNANDO DUARTE “Financial Vulnerability and OR SHACHAR Monetary Policy,” Federal “Dealer Balance Sheets and Reserve Bank of New York Bond Liquidity Provision,” Staff Reports, no. 804 (2017). with Tobias Adrian and Nina Boyarchenko. Journal MICHAEL FLEMING of Monetary Economics, “Dealer Financial Conditions Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Desi Volker and Lender-of-Last-Resort Conference Series on Public Facilities,” with Viral Acharya, Policy, forthcoming. Warren B. Hrung, and Asani Sarkar. Journal of Financial Economics 123, no. 1 (2017).

the research and statistics group 27 Financial Intermediation Gara Afonso Nicola Cetorelli

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION STAFF

GARA AFONSO PAUL GOLDSMITH- The Financial Intermediation staff conducts Ph.D., London School of PINKHAM Economics and Political Ph.D., Harvard, 2015 research and policy analysis on a host of issues Science, 2008 INTERESTS: Consumer relating to financial intermediation and financial INTERESTS: Financial finance; networks; economics; liquidity; financial econometrics. markets, including the behavior and health of stability; interbank markets. SEAN HUNDTOFTE financial institutions, financial market innovation, NICOLA CETORELLI Ph.D., Yale, 2016 and the development of appropriate supervisory Ph.D., Brown, 1996 INTERESTS: Household INTERESTS: Banking; finance; financial tools and techniques. Economists examine industrial organization; intermediation; behavioral these issues from both a macroeconomic and a corporate finance; bank economics; real estate. finance and real activity. microeconomic perspective, with an emphasis ANNA KOVNER on the performance and stability of financial DONG BEOM CHOI Ph.D., Harvard, 2008 Ph.D., Princeton, 2012 INTERESTS: Corporate markets and core institutions. INTERESTS: Financial finance; banking; venture economics; banking; capital and private equity. monetary policy transmission; financial DONALD MORGAN RECENT RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE: stability. Ph.D., Wisconsin, 1989 INTERESTS: Household LINDA GOLDBERG finance; personal ■ the effectiveness of ■ the role of central bank bank supervision, liquidity provision, Ph.D., Princeton, 1988 bankruptcy; information INTERESTS: International frictions and ■ the evolution of the ■ credit derivatives macroeconomics; macroeconomic activity. banking industry, and other financial international banking and innovations, and finance; international roles MATTHEW PLOSSER ■ the implications of of the dollar. Ph.D., Chicago, 2012 credit securitization, ■ issues related to banks’ risk management and INTERESTS: Banking; ■ the changes in bank corporate governance. corporate finance; private funding patterns, equity and entrepreneurial activity.

28 federal reserve bank of new york RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS

GARA AFONSO LINDA GOLDBERG MATTHEW PLOSSER “Trade Dynamics in the “Cross-Border Prudential “Buyout Activity: The Impact Market for Federal Funds,” Policy Spillovers: How Much? of Aggregate Discount with Ricardo Lagos. How Important? Evidence Rates,” with Valentin Haddad Dong Beom Choi Econometrica 83, no. 1 from the International and Erik Loualiche. Journal of (2015). Banking Research Network,” Finance 72, no. 1 (2017). with Claudia Buch. “The Over-the-Counter “The Federal Reserve and International Journal Theory of the Fed Funds Market Confidence,” Federal of Central Banking 13, Market: A Primer,” with Reserve Bank of New York supplement 1 (2017). Ricardo Lagos. Journal of Staff Reports, no. 773 (2016). Money, Credit, and Banking PAUL GOLDSMITH-PINKHAM 47, supplement 2 (2015). JOÃO SANTOS “Consumer Bankruptcy and “Liquidity Risk and Maturity Financial Health,” with Will Linda Goldberg NICOLA CETORELLI Management over the Credit Dobbie and Crystal Yang. “Banking Globalization and Cycle,” with Atif Mian. Journal Review of Economics and Monetary Transmission,” with of Financial Economics, Statistics, forthcoming. Linda Goldberg. Journal of forthcoming. Finance 67, no. 5 (2012). SEAN HUNDTOFTE “Monetary Policy and Bank “Surviving Credit Market “Does Going Easy on Risk-Taking: Evidence from Competition,” Economic Distressed Banks Help the Corporate Loan Market,” Inquiry 52, no. 1 (2014). Economic Growth?” Federal with Teodora Paligorova. Reserve Bank of New York Journal of Financial Matthew Plosser DONG BEOM CHOI Staff Reports, no. 823 Intermediation 30 (2017). “Heterogeneity and Stability: (2017). Bolster the Strong, Not the JAMES VICKERY Weak.” Review of Financial ANNA KOVNER “How Does Risk Management JOÃO SANTOS Studies 27, no. 6 (2014). “How Do Global Banks Influence Production Ph.D., Boston University, 1995 Scramble for Liquidity? Decisions? Evidence from INTERESTS: Corporate “Sooner or Later: Timing Evidence from the Asset- a Field Experiment,” with finance; banking; banking of Monetary Policy with Backed Commercial Paper Shawn Cole and Xavier Giné. regulation and the design Heterogeneous Risk Taking.” Freeze of 2007,” with Review of Financial Studies of financial systems, American Economic Review: Viral V. Acharya and Gara 30, no. 6 (2017). institutions, and contracts. Papers and Proceedings 106, Afonso. Journal of Financial no. 5 (2016). “Securitization and the Fixed- Intermediation 30 (2017). JAMES VICKERY Rate Mortgage” with Andreas Ph.D., MIT, 2004 Fuster. Review of Financial DONALD MORGAN INTERESTS: Banking and Studies 28, no. 1 (2015). “The Benefits of Geographic financial institutions; Diversification in Banking,” mortgage markets and real with Céline Meslier, estate finance; household Katherine Samolyk, and finance; corporate finance. Amine Tarazi. Journal of International Money and Finance 69 (2016).

the research and statistics group 29 International Research Ozge Akinci Jan Groen

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH STAFF

OZGE AKINCI THOMAS KLITGAARD The International Research Function conducts Ph.D., Columbia, 2012 Ph.D., Stanford, 1985 INTERESTS: Open-economy INTERESTS: European and research and policy analysis on international macroeconomics; financial Japanese economic issues; economics, examining issues in open-economy crises; macroprudential capital flows; international policies. trade; exchange rates. macroeconomics, global finance, and trade. Staff research is published in academic JAN GROEN PAOLO PESENTI Ph.D., Erasmus University Ph.D., Yale, 1991 journals and Federal Reserve publications Rotterdam, 2000 INTERESTS: Global INTERESTS: International macroeconomic and is designed to contribute to the Bank’s finance; applied adjustment; financial overall perspective on international issues. econometrics; and currency crises. macroeconomics; financial economics.

RECENT RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE: MATTHEW HIGGINS Ph.D., Harvard, 1994 INTERESTS: International ■ macroeconomic ■ European and Japanese economics; trade; spillovers and policy economic issues, and commodity prices; capital interdependence, ■ commodity prices. flows; demographics. ■ capital mobility and financial integration,

30 federal reserve bank of new york RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS

OZGE AKINCI THOMAS KLITGAARD “How Effective Are “The Balance of Payments Macroprudential Policies? Crisis in the Euro Area An Empirical Investigation,” Periphery,” with Matthew Matthew Higgins with Jane Olmstead-Rumsey. Higgins. Federal Reserve Journal of Financial Bank of New York Current Intermediation, forthcoming. Issues in Economics and Finance 20, no. 2 (2014). JAN GROEN “Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting,” with George Kapetanios. Computational Statistics and Thomas Klitgaard Data Analysis 100 (2016).

MATTHEW HIGGINS and PAOLO PESENTI “Policies and Institutions for Managing the Aggregate Macroeconomic Stance of the Eurozone,” with Giancarlo Corsetti. In Richard Baldwin Paolo Pesenti and Francesco Giavazzi, eds., How to Fix Europe’s Monetary Union: Views of Leading Economists. London: CEPR Press (2016).

the research and statistics group 31 Macroeconomic and Monetary Sushant Acharya Marco Del Negro

Studies MACROECONOMIC AND MONETARY STUDIES STAFF

Economists in the Macroeconomic and Monetary SUSHANT ACHARYA JONATHAN MCCARTHY Ph.D., Maryland, 2013 Ph.D., Wisconsin, 1992 Studies Function conduct scholarly research INTERESTS: INTERESTS: on macroeconomics and monetary economics Macroeconomics; Macroeconomics; monetary economics; inventories; investment; for publication in academic journals. They also information frictions housing; consumption. provide rigorous analysis of current economic, in macroeconomics and learning. RICHARD PEACH fiscal, and monetary conditions and advise Ph.D., Maryland, 1983 MARCO DEL NEGRO INTERESTS: Housing and senior Bank management on monetary policy. Ph.D., Yale, 1998 real estate finance; federal INTERESTS: fiscal policy. Macroeconomics; time RECENT RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE series econometrics; DSGE LAURA PILOSSOPH models. Ph.D., Chicago, 2013 ■ forecasting and policy ■ international spillovers INTERESTS: analysis using Bayesian and policy coordination KESHAV DOGRA Macroeconomics; applied VARs and DSGE models, at the zero lower bound, Ph.D., Columbia, 2015 macroeconomics; labor INTERESTS: economics. ■ ■ evidence on the housing nowcasting using large Macroeconomics; and mortgage boom macroeconomic data sets, monetary economics; ROBERT RICH from loan-level data, ■ secular drivers of the fiscal policy. Ph.D., Brown, 1988 natural rate of interest, ■ labor market churn, job INTERESTS: and worker flows, and DOMENICO GIANNONE Macroeconomics; time ■ the Federal Reserve’s trends in labor force Ph.D., Université Libre series econometrics. balance sheet risk, participation, de Bruxelles, 2004 ■ monetary policy and INTERESTS: Forecasting; AYŞEGÜL ŞAHIN ■ firm heterogeneity and monetary policy; Ph.D., University of inequality, aggregate employment business cycles. Rochester, 2002 ■ hysteresis and mone- fluctuations, INTERESTS: tary policy, ■ duration dependence, SEBASTIAN HEISE Macroeconomics; labor ■ safe asset shortages long-term unemploy- Ph.D., Yale, 2016 economics. and fiscal policy, ment, and firm hiring, INTERESTS: Macroeconomics; ■ ■ demographics and firm wage dynamics over the international trade. business cycle, dynamics, and

■ firm-to-firm relation- ■ assortative matching ships and price rigidity, and income inequality.

32 federal reserve bank of new york RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS

SUSHANT ACHARYA SEBASTIAN HEISE AYŞEGÜL ŞAHIN “Costly Information, Planning “Firm-to-Firm Relationships “Gross Worker Flows over Complementarities, and the and Price Rigidity: Theory the Business Cycle,” with Per Phillips Curve.” Journal of and Evidence.” Unpublished Krusell, Toshihiko Mukoyama, Domenico Giannone Money, Credit, and Banking paper, Yale University, 2016. and Richard Rogerson. 49, no. 4 (2017). American Economic Review, JONATHAN MCCARTHY forthcoming. MARCO DEL NEGRO “Has the Response of “Job Search Behavior “The Great Escape? A Investment to Financial over the Business Cycle,” Quantitative Evaluation of Market Signals Changed?” with Toshihiko Mukoyama the Fed’s Liquidity Facilities,” In Per Gunnar Berglund and Christina Patterson. with Gauti Eggertsson, and Leanne J. Ussher, eds., American Economic Andrea Ferrero, and Nobuhiro Recent Developments in Journal: Macroeconomics, Kiyotaki. American Economic Macroeconomics. Eastern Laura Pilossoph forthcoming. Review 107, no. 3 (2017). Economic Association conference volume. “Dynamic Prediction Pools: ARGIA SBORDONE An Investigation of Financial “Optimized Taylor Rules for RICHARD PEACH Frictions and Forecasting Disinflation When Agents “The Parts Are More Than Performance,” with Raiden B. Are Learning,” with Timothy the Whole: Separating Goods Hasegawa and Frank Cogley and Christian and Services to Predict Core Schorfheide. Journal of Matthes. Journal of Monetary Inflation.” Federal Reserve Applied Econometrics 192, Economics 72 (2015). Bank of New York Current Ayşegül Şahin no. 2 (2016). Issues in Economics and ANDREA TAMBALOTTI Finance 19, no. 7 (2013). KESHAV DOGRA “Safety, Liquidity, and the “Consumption Volatility, Natural Rate of Interest,” LAURA PILOSSOPH Liquidity Constraints, and with Marco Del Negro, “Statistical Discrimination Household Welfare,” with Domenico Giannone, and and Duration Dependence in Olga Gorbachev. Economic Marc P. Giannoni. Brookings the Job-Finding Rate,” with Journal 126, no. 597 (2016). Papers on Economic Activity, Gregor Jarosch. Unpublished forthcoming. paper, September 2016. Argia Sbordone DOMENICO GIANNONE “Exploiting the Monthly ROBERT RICH Data Flow in Structural “The Measurement and Forecasting,” with Francesca Behavior of Uncertainty: Monti and Lucrezia Reichlin. ARGIA SBORDONE Evidence from the ECB Journal of Monetary Ph.D., Chicago, 1993 Survey of Professional Economics 84 (2016). INTERESTS: Macroeconomics; Forecasters,” with Joshua monetary economics; Abel, Joseph Song, and inflation dynamics. Joseph Tracy. Journal of Applied Econometrics 31, ANDREA TAMBALOTTI no. 3 (2016). Ph.D., Princeton, 2004 INTERESTS: Macroeconomics; monetary economics.

the research and statistics group 33 Microeconomic Studies Mary Amiti Olivier Armantier

The Microeconomic Studies Function contributes MICROECONOMIC STUDIES STAFF to the Bank’s monetary and financial policy missions through the construction and analysis MARY AMITI ANDREW HAUGHWOUT Ph.D., London School of Ph.D., Pennsylvania, 1993 of a wide array of micro data sets and the Economics and Political INTERESTS: Household application of relevant microeconomic theory Science, 1997 finance; public finance; INTERESTS: Trade finance; housing; urban and and state-of-the-art econometric techniques. trade liberalization and regional economics. productivity, wages, the In addition, staff conduct long-term research in wage skill premium, and FATIH KARAHAN applied microeconomic topics, including labor product quality; exchange Ph.D., Pennsylvania, 2012 rate pass-through. INTERESTS: Business cycles; economics, public finance, consumer finance, consumption and savings; housing, urban economics, and health economics. OLIVIER ARMANTIER housing; labor economics. Ph.D., University of Pittsburgh, 1999 GIZEM KOSAR INTERESTS: Industrial Ph.D., Johns Hopkins, 2015 RECENT RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE: organization; econometrics; INTERESTS: Labor economics; experimental economics; public economics; applied microeconomics; household finance. ■ analysis of household ■ personal bankruptcy, game theory. balance sheets and ■ analysis of macro­ DONGHOON LEE consumer credit, economic and labor RAJASHRI CHAKRABARTI Ph.D., Pennsylvania, 2001 ■ student loans, market impacts of Ph.D., Cornell, 2004 INTERESTS: Housing health policy, including INTERESTS: Public economics; household ■ survey measurement the Affordable Care Act, economics and public finance; labor economics. of household inflation policy; labor economics expectations, ■ design and comparison and the economics MAXIM PINKOVSKIY of belief elicitation ■ subjective expectations of education; applied Ph.D., MIT, 2013 techniques, formation, updating, microeconomics; INTERESTS: Public economics; and links to economic ■ spatial and temporal applied econometrics. health economics; applied behavior, variation in vacant-land microeconomics; economic prices, STEFANO EUSEPI growth and development; ■ skill and locational Ph.D., University of econometrics. mismatch in the ■ selection and income Warwick, 2004 labor market, distribution dynamics,

and INTERESTS: ■ vacancy posting Macroeconomics; monetary behavior of firms, ■ simulated maximum- economics; nonlinear likelihood estimation for dynamics. ■ subjective beliefs and discrete choice models. educational choices,

34 federal reserve bank of new york RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS

MARY AMITI “Expectations, Learning, MAXIM PINKOVSKIY “How Much Do Idiosyncratic and Business Cycle “Lights, Camera, . . . Income! Bank Shocks Affect Fluctuations,” with Bruce Illuminating the National Investment? Evidence Preston. American Economic Accounts-Household Surveys Andrew Haughwout from Matched Bank-Firm Review 101, no. 6 (2011). Debate,” with Xavier Sala- Loan Data,” with David E. i-Martin. Quarterly Journal of Weinstein. Journal of Political ANDREW HAUGHWOUT Economics 131, no. 2 (2016). Economy, forthcoming. “Second Chances: Subprime “Growth Discontinuities Mortgage Modification and “Importers, Exporters, and at Borders,” Journal of Re-Default,” with Ebiere Okah Exchange Rate Disconnect,” Economic Growth 22, and Joseph Tracy. Journal of with Oleg Itskhoki and Jozef no. 2 (2017). Money, Credit, and Banking Konings. American Economic 48, no. 4 (2016). Review 104, no. 7 (2014). GIORGIO TOPA Gizem Kosar “Working Hard in the Wrong FATIH KARAHAN OLIVIER ARMANTIER Place: A Mismatch-Based “The Role of Startups in “Discount Window Stigma Explanation to the U.K. Structural Transformation,” during the 2007-2008 Productivity Puzzle,” with with Robert Dent, Benjamin Financial Crisis,” with Eric Christina Patterson, Ayşegül Pugsley, and Ayşegül Şahin. Ghysels, Asani Sarkar, and Şahin, and Giovanni L. Violante. American Economic Review: Jeffrey Shrader. Journal of European Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 106, Financial Economics 118, 84 (2016). no. 5 (2016). no. 2 (2015). Maxim Pinkovskiy WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW “The Rich Domain of GIZEM KOSAR “Financial Education and the Risk,” with Nicolas Treich. “Trends in Cumulative Debt Behavior of the Young,” Management Science 62, Marginal Tax Rates Facing with Meta Brown, John no. 7 (2016). Low-Income Families, GIORGIO TOPA Grigsby, Jaya Wen, and Basit 1997-2007.” In Robert A. Ph.D., Chicago, 1996 Zafar. Review of Financial RAJASHRI CHAKRABARTI Moffitt, ed., Tax Policy INTERESTS: Labor and urban Studies 29, no. 9 (2016). “Do Charter Schools and the Economy, vol. 31. economics; consumer and Crowd Out Private School Chicago: University of business expectations; “Workers’ Spending Enrollment? Evidence from Chicago Press (2017). social interactions and Response to the 2011 Payroll Michigan,” with Joydeep Roy. local spillovers; spatial Tax Cuts,” with Grant Graziani Journal of Urban Economics DONGHOON LEE econometrics. and Basit Zafar. American 91 (2016). “Simulated Maximum Economic Journal: Economic Likelihood Estimation for WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW Policy 8, no. 4 (2016). STEFANO EUSEPI Discrete Choices Using Ph.D., Brown, 1992 “Central Bank Communication Transformed Simulated INTERESTS: Labor economics; and Expectations Frequencies,” with public policy; household Stabilization,” with Bruce Kyungchul Song. Journal finance; applied Preston. American Economic of Econometrics 187, econometrics. Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 1 (2015). no. 3 (2010).

the research and statistics group 35 Money and Payments Thomas Eisenbach Gabriele La Spada

Studies MONEY AND PAYMENTS STUDIES STAFF

MARCO CIPRIANI KENNETH GARBADE The Money and Payments Studies Function focuses Ph.D., NYU, 2002 Ph.D., Princeton, 1975 INTERESTS: Financial INTERESTS: U.S. Treasury its research on the infrastructures that allow our economics; market securities; risk management; financial system to operate—such as payment and microstructure; relative value analysis. money and banking; settlement arrangements—and the institutions that experimental economics. GABRIELE LA SPADA operate them—such as clearinghouses. Important Ph.D., Princeton, 2015 ADAM COPELAND INTERESTS: Financial elements of study are the money markets (including Ph.D., University of economics; financial Minnesota, 2002 econometrics. the federal funds market, the Eurodollar markets, INTERESTS: Industrial and the repo market), especially their interbank and organization; financial MICHAEL LEE intermediation; Ph.D., Wharton, 2016 interdealer segments. Economists explore the market microstructure. INTERESTS: Corporate markets’ institutional details and their role in finance; financial markets; THOMAS EISENBACH financial institutions. affecting funding and market liquidity, financial Ph.D., Princeton, 2011 Financial stability, and the design of optimal micro- and INTERESTS: economics; microeconomic macroprudential policies. theory; behavioral economics.

RECENT RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE:

■ analyzing activity in ■ evaluating the imple- market and the unse- regulation on banks and short-term funding mentation of monetary cured money markets the effect of SEC reforms markets under normal policy with very large (Eurodollar and federal of money market mutual conditions and during levels of reserves in the funds market), funds on financial periods of market stress, banking system and its markets, and ■ understanding the effect on money markets, ■ preparing recommenda- dynamics of credit ■ studying vulnerabilities of tions for international ■ studying short-term spreads, the financial system to oversight of the setting funding markets for runs and fire sales and ■ studying the impact of of standards for financial financial institutions, how these vulnerabilities new regulation, such as rates and indexes, including the repo change over time. the impact of Basel III

36 federal reserve bank of new york RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS

MARCO CIPRIANI KENNETH GARBADE ASANI SARKAR “Information Contagion Treasury Debt Management Dealer Financial Conditions in the Laboratory,” with under the Rubric of Regular and Lender-of-Last-Resort Antonio Guarino, Giovanni and Predictable Issuance: Facilities,” with Viral Acharya, Guazzarotti, Federico Tagliati, 1983-2012, New York: Michael Fleming, and Warren B. Michael Lee and Sven Fischer. Review of Federal Reserve Bank of New Hrung. Journal of Financial Finance, forthcoming. York (2015). Economics 123, no. 1 (2017). “Discount Window Stigma ADAM COPELAND GABRIELE LA SPADA during the 2007-2008 “Price Setting in an “Competition, Reach for Financial Crisis,” with Olivier Innovative Market,” with Yield, and Money Market Armantier, Eric Ghysels, and Adam Shapiro. Review of Funds.” Journal of Financial Jeffrey Shrader. Journal of Economics and Statistics 98, Economics, forthcoming. Financial Economics 118, no. 3 (2016). no. 2 (2015). Antoine Martin MICHAEL LEE THOMAS EISENBACH “Uncertain Booms and “Rollover Risk as Market Fragility.” Unpublished paper, Discipline: A Two-Sided University of Pennsylvania, Inefficiency.” Journal of Wharton School of Business, Financial Economics, 2016. forthcoming. ANTOINE MARTIN “Anxiety in the Face of Risk,” “Bank Lending in Times of with Martin Schmalz, Journal Asani Sarkar Large Bank Reserves,” with of Financial Economics 121, James McAndrews and David no. 2 (2016). Skeie. International Journal of Central Banking 12, no. 4 ANTOINE MARTIN (2016). Ph.D., University of Minnesota, 2001 INTERESTS: Financial intermediation; payment economics; money and banking.

ASANI SARKAR Ph.D., Pennsylvania, 1989 INTERESTS: Market microstructure; financial crises and lender-of-last-resort.

the research and statistics group 37 Regional Analysis Jaison Abel Jason Bram

REGIONAL ANALYSIS STAFF

JAISON ABEL The Regional Analysis Function engages in Ph.D., Ohio State, 1999 INTERESTS: Industrial research on issues of interest to the Second organization; economics Federal Reserve District in support of the Bank’s of innovation; public finance; urban and monetary policy and outreach objectives. The regional economics. Function also analyzes and monitors economic Richard Deitz JASON BRAM developments in the region and shares the M.B.A., NYU, 1992 RICHARD DEITZ INTERESTS: Regional Ph.D., Binghamton information obtained with stakeholders in economics; University, 1995 the Bank and throughout the District. survey research; INTERESTS: Regional eco- consumer confidence; nomics; urban economics; housing markets; labor economics; public consumer behavior. finance; household finance.

RECENT RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE: RECENT PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS

■ human capital and local ■ the economics of JAISON ABEL JASON BRAM economic development, natural disasters, “Underemployment in the “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Early Careers of College Changing Relationship ■ the microfoundations of ■ the competitiveness Graduates following the between Manhattan Rents urban agglomeration of Puerto Rico’s Great Recession,” with and Home Prices.” Federal economies, economy, and Richard Deitz. Education, Reserve Bank of New York ■ regional wage inequality, ■ the labor market for Skills, and Technical Current Issues in Economics recent college Change: Implications for and Finance 18, no. 9 (2012). ■ skill upgrading in the graduates after the Future U.S. GDP Growth. manufacturing sector, Great Recession. NBER-CRIW conference RICHARD DEITZ ■ the geography of the volume. Chicago: University “Agglomeration and Job housing boom and bust, of Chicago Press, Matching among College forthcoming. Graduates,” with Jason Abel. ■ the relationship between Regional Science and Urban home prices and rents Economics 51 (2015). in New York City,

38 federal reserve bank of new york Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Series

LIBERTY STREET ECONOMICS A blog that enables our economists to engage with the public on important issues quickly and frequently. http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/

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40 federal reserve bank of new york