Environment and Security T

%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬ jot oub pv m N ulb ib D LZSHZ[TUBO

Nbjmvv.Tvv

Obnbohbo [CFLJTUBO Kbmbm.Bcbe

Boejkbo

Pti Gfshibob 4RANSFORMING¬RISKS¬INTO¬COOPERATION %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

Libjebslbo Lbebnkbj fo t oubjo Npv mbj zmtv B Lz{ Bmbj!!Wbmmfz #ENTRAL¬!SIA &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND¬AREA bnjst Uif Q ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

4HE¬5NITED¬.ATIONS¬$EVELOPMENT¬0ROGRAMME¬IS¬THE¬5.|S¬'LOBAL¬ $EVELOPMENT¬ .ETWORK ¬ ADVOCATING¬ FOR¬ CHANGE¬ AND¬ CONNECTING¬ COUNTRIES¬TO¬KNOWLEDGE ¬EXPERIENCE¬AND¬RESOURCES¬TO¬HELP¬PEOPLE¬ BUILD¬A¬BETTER¬LIFE¬)T¬OPERATES¬IN¬¬COUNTRIES ¬WORKING¬WITH¬THEM¬ ON¬ RESPONSES¬ TO¬ GLOBAL¬ AND¬ NATIONAL¬ DEVELOPMENT¬ CHALLENGES¬ !S¬THEY¬DEVELOP¬LOCAL¬CAPACITY ¬THE¬COUNTRIES¬DRAW¬ON¬THE¬5.$0¬ PEOPLE¬AND¬ITS¬WIDE¬RANGE¬OF¬PARTNERS¬4HE¬5.$0¬NETWORK¬LINKS¬AND¬ CO ORDINATES¬GLOBAL¬AND¬NATIONAL¬EFFORTS¬TO¬ACHIEVE¬THE¬-ILLENNIUM¬ $EVELOPMENT¬'OALS

4HE¬5NITED¬.ATIONS¬%NVIRONMENT¬0ROGRAMME ¬AS¬THE¬WORLDS¬ LEADING¬ INTERGOVERNMENTAL¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ ORGANIZATION ¬ IS¬ THE¬ AUTHORITATIVE¬ SOURCE¬ OF¬ KNOWLEDGE¬ ON¬ THE¬ CURRENT¬ STATE¬ OF ¬ AND¬ TRENDS¬SHAPING¬THE¬GLOBAL¬ENVIRONMENT¬4HE¬MISSION¬OF¬5.%0¬IS¬ TO¬PROVIDE¬LEADERSHIP¬AND¬ENCOURAGE¬PARTNERSHIP¬IN¬CARING¬FOR¬THE¬ ENVIRONMENT¬ BY¬ INSPIRING ¬ INFORMING ¬ AND¬ ENABLING¬ NATIONS¬ AND¬ PEOPLES¬TO¬IMPROVE¬THEIR¬QUALITY¬OF¬LIFE¬WITHOUT¬COMPROMISING¬THAT¬ OF¬FUTURE¬GENERATIONS

7ITH¬¬PARTICIPATING¬STATES ¬THE¬/RGANIZATION¬FOR¬3ECURITY¬AND¬ #O OPERATION¬ IN¬ %UROPE¬ IS¬ A¬ PRE EMINENT¬ INSTRUMENT¬ FOR¬ EARLY¬ WARNING ¬CONmICT¬PREVENTION ¬CONmICT¬MANAGEMENT¬AND¬POST CON mICT¬ REHABILITATION¬ IN¬ CONTINENTAL¬ %UROPE ¬ THE¬ #AUCASUS ¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA¬AND¬.ORTH¬!MERICA¬3INCE¬ITS¬BEGINNINGS¬IN¬ ¬THE¬/3#%¬ HAS¬ TAKEN¬ A¬ COMPREHENSIVE¬ VIEW¬ OF¬ SECURITY ¬INCLUDING¬ THROUGH¬ THE¬PROTECTION¬AND¬PROMOTION¬OF¬HUMAN¬RIGHTS¬AND¬FUNDAMENTAL¬ FREEDOMS ¬ECONOMIC¬AND¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CO OPERATION ¬AND¬POLITI CAL¬DIALOGUE

4HE¬.ORTH¬!TLANTIC¬4REATY¬/RGANIZATION¬EMBODIES¬THE¬TRANSATLAN TIC¬LINK¬THAT¬BINDS¬%UROPE¬AND¬.ORTH¬!MERICA¬IN¬A¬UNIQUE¬DEFENCE¬ AND¬SECURITY¬ALLIANCE¬)N¬RESPONSE¬TO¬RECENT¬CHANGES¬IN¬THE¬OVERALL¬ SECURITY¬ENVIRONMENT ¬.!4/¬TOOK¬ON¬NEW¬FUNDAMENTAL¬TASKS¬4HESE¬ INCLUDE¬ADDRESSING¬BOTH¬INSTABILITY¬CAUSED¬BY¬REGIONAL¬AND¬ETHNIC¬ CONmICTS¬WITHIN¬%UROPE¬AND¬THREATS¬EMANATING¬FROM¬BEYOND¬THE¬ %URO !TLANTIC¬AREA¬.!4/S¬@3ECURITY¬4HROUGH¬3CIENCE¬PROGRAMME¬ BRINGS¬SCIENTISTS¬TOGETHER¬TO¬WORK¬ON¬NEW¬SECURITY¬ISSUES¬OF¬CON CERN¬TO¬.!4/ ¬0ARTNER¬AND¬-EDITERRANEAN¬$IALOGUE¬COUNTRIES

4HE¬VIEWS¬EXPRESSED¬IN¬THIS¬PUBLICATION¬ARE¬THOSE¬OF¬THE¬AUTHORS¬ AND¬DO¬NOT¬NECESSARILY¬REmECT¬THOSE¬OF¬THE¬5NITED¬.ATIONS ¬THE¬ /RGANIZATION¬FOR¬3ECURITY¬AND¬#O OPERATION¬IN¬%UROPE ¬OR¬OF¬THE¬ .ORTH¬ !TLANTIC¬ 4REATY¬ /RGANIZATION¬ 4HE¬ DESIGNATIONS¬ EMPLOYED¬ AND¬THE¬PRESENTATIONS¬DO¬NOT¬IMPLY¬THE¬EXPRESSION¬OF¬ANY¬OPINION¬ ON¬THE¬PART¬OF¬THE¬THREE¬AGENCIES¬CONCERNING¬THE¬LEGAL¬STATUS¬OF¬ ANY¬COUNTRY ¬TERRITORY ¬CITY¬OR¬AREA¬OF¬ITS¬AUTHORITY ¬OR¬DELINEATION¬OF¬ ITS¬FRONTIERS¬AND¬BOUNDARIES¬

#OPYRIGHT¬¥¬¬5.%0 ¬5.$0 ¬/3#% ¬.!4/ )3".¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

0REFACE )NTRODUCTION %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY !BOUT¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬INITIATIVE 5NDERSTANDING¬LINKS¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY

2EGIONAL¬CONTEXT 0OLITICAL¬AND¬SECURITY¬FACTORS %CONOMIC¬FACTORS

&ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND¬)SSUES¬AND¬PROBLEM¬SPOTS 0OPULATION¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY .ATURAL¬RESOURCES¬LAND¬AND¬BIODIVERSITY !¬VITAL¬NATURAL¬RESOURCE¬WATER )NDUSTRIAL¬ACTIVITIES¬AND¬HAZARDOUS¬WASTE #ROSS CUTTING¬ISSUES

#ONCLUSIONS¬AND¬OUTLOOK 4HE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬PROSPECTS¬FOR¬CONm¬ICT 4HE¬ROAD¬AHEAD¬FOR¬%.63%#

.OTES 2EFERENCES¬AND¬SOURCES

4RANSFORMING¬RISKS¬INTO¬COOPERATION ,IST¬OF¬ABBREVIATIONS %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

4HIS¬REPORT¬WAS¬PREPARED¬ON¬BEHALF¬OF¬5.%0 ¬5.$0 ¬/3#%¬AND¬.!4/¬BY

,UIGI¬$E¬-ARTINO¬'RADUATE¬)NSTITUTE¬FOR¬$EVELOPMENT¬3TUDIES ¬5NIVERSITY¬OF¬'ENEVA !NNICA¬#ARLSSON ¬'IANLUCA¬2AMPOLLA¬/3#% )NKAR¬+ADYRZHANOVA ¬0ETER¬3VEDBERG¬5.$0 .ICKOLAI¬$ENISOV ¬6IKTOR¬.OVIKOV ¬0HILIPPE¬2EKACEWICZ ¬/TTO¬3IMONETT ¬*ANET¬&ERNANDEZ¬3KAALVIK 5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL $OMINIQUE¬DEL¬0IETRO ¬$IANA¬2IZZOLIO¬5.%0'2)$ %UROPE -ARIKA¬0ALOSAARI¬5.%0¬2EGIONAL¬/Fl¬CE¬FOR¬%UROPE

WITH¬INPUT¬AND¬ADVICE¬FROM

,UCA¬0UPULIN¬!GENCY¬FOR¬4ECHNICAL¬#OOPERATION¬AND¬$EVELOPMENT ¬$USHANBE .URLAN¬$JENCHURAEV¬!SIAN¬$EVELOPMENT¬"ANK ¬"ISHKEK -AKHMADSHARIF¬+HAKDODOV¬%XECUTIVE¬/Fl¬CE¬OF¬THE¬0RESIDENTIAL¬!DMINISTRATION¬OF¬4AJIKISTAN ¬$USHANBE /MOR¬2USTEMBEKOV ¬4ATIANA¬6OLKOVA¬-INISTRY¬OF¬%COLOGY¬AND¬%MERGENCIES¬OF¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬"ISHKEK -ICHAEL¬'LANTZ¬.ATIONAL¬#ENTER¬FOR¬!TMOSPHERIC¬2ESEARCH ¬"OULDER 4IMUR¬4ILLYAEV¬3TATE¬#OMMITTEE¬FOR¬.ATURE¬0ROTECTION¬OF¬THE¬2EPUBLIC¬OF¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬4ASHKENT ¬ !NDRIY¬$EMYDENKO¬5NITED¬.ATIONS¬%CONOMIC¬#OMMISSION¬FOR¬%UROPE ¬'ENEVA

&INANCIAL¬SUPPORT¬FOR¬THE¬ASSESSMENT¬AND¬PUBLICATION¬OF¬THIS¬REPORT¬WAS¬PROVIDED¬BY

#ANADIAN¬)NTERNATIONAL¬$EVELOPMENT¬!GENCY .ORWEGIAN¬-INISTRY¬OF¬&OREIGN¬!FFAIRS

#ENTRAL¬!SIA &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND¬AREA )TALIAN¬-INISTRY¬OF¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬4ERRITORY ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

0REFACE

)N¬THE¬DEBATE¬ON¬WHAT¬ROLE¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬PLAYS¬IN¬CAUS ENVIRONMENTAL¬ PROBLEMS¬ CAN¬ EASILY¬ ACQUIRE¬ REGIONAL¬ AND¬ ING¬ OR¬ RESOLVING¬ CONmICT ¬ THE¬ PARTNERSHIP¬ OF¬ INTERNATIONAL¬ SECURITY¬DIMENSIONS¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬DEGRADATION¬CAN¬AG ORGANIZATIONS¬WORKING¬ON¬THE¬@%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬ GRAVATE¬SOCIAL¬TENSIONS¬OR¬AWAKEN¬OTHERWISE¬DORMANT¬CON INITIATIVE¬TAKES¬A¬PRAGMATIC¬POSITION¬)N¬FOCUSING¬ON¬PAR mICT GENERATING¬FORCES¬!T¬THE¬SAME¬TIME ¬COOPERATION¬FOR¬ TICIPATORY¬ ASSESSMENTS¬ AND¬ TARGETED¬ FOLLOW UP¬ ACTIVITIES¬ BETTER¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬GOVERNANCE¬IN¬COMPLEX¬SOCIO POLITICAL¬ IN¬CONmICT PRONE¬AREAS ¬WE¬BELIEVE¬THAT¬WE¬CAN¬PROMOTE¬ SETTINGS¬CAN¬HELP¬BUILD¬CONlDENCE¬AND¬IMPROVE¬RELATIONS¬ ENVIRONMENTALLY¬ SUSTAINABLE¬ DEVELOPMENT¬ AND¬ PEACE¬ ON¬ BETWEEN¬COMMUNITIES¬THAT¬SHARE¬COMMON¬RESOURCES¬ THE¬GROUND 4HIS¬ASSESSMENT¬HAS¬BEEN¬PRODUCED¬UPON¬THE¬REQUEST¬OF¬ )N¬THIS¬CONTEXT ¬WE¬ARE¬VERY¬HAPPY¬TO¬PRESENT¬AN¬IN DEPTH¬ THE¬COUNTRIES¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬6ALLEY¬n¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬4AJIKISTAN ¬ ASSESSMENT¬ OF¬ THE¬ SITUATION¬ IN¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ 6ALLEY¬ n¬ A¬¬ AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬n¬AND¬HAS¬WIDELY¬BENElTED¬FROM¬THEIR¬IN REGION¬WHERE¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬LINKAGES¬ARE¬BOTH¬ PUTS¬)T¬SHOWS¬HOW¬THE¬@%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬INITIATIVE¬ EVIDENT¬AND¬CHALLENGING¬2ECENT¬POLITICAL¬DEVELOPMENTS¬IN¬ HAS¬HELPED¬IDENTIFY¬BOTH¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬THREATS¬TO¬REGIONAL¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬TRAGIC¬EVENTS¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬HAVE¬ONCE¬AGAIN¬ SECURITY¬AND¬OPPORTUNITIES¬FOR¬CROSS BORDER¬DIALOGUE¬7E¬ PUT¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬6ALLEY¬IN¬THE¬CENTRE¬OF¬GLOBAL¬ATTENTION¬ HOPE¬THAT¬THIS¬ASSESSMENT¬WILL¬CONTRIBUTE¬TO¬A¬BETTER¬UNDER 4HE¬LANDSLIDE¬THAT¬IN¬SPRING¬¬THREATENED¬RADIOACTIVE¬ STANDING¬OF¬LINKAGES¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY ¬AS¬ WASTE¬ DUMPS¬ AT¬ -AILUU 3UU¬ IN¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ IN¬ THE¬ UPPER¬ WELL¬AS¬STRENGTHEN¬THE¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬DIMENSION¬OF¬CONmICT¬ PART¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬6ALLEY¬OFFERED¬FRESH¬REMINDERS¬OF¬HOW¬ PREVENTION¬EFFORTS¬IN¬THIS¬CRUCIAL¬PART¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA

&RITS¬3CHLINGEMANN $IRECTOR¬AND¬2EGIONAL¬2EPRESENTATIVE ¬5.%0¬2EGIONAL¬/FlCE¬FOR¬%UROPE "EN¬3LAY $IRECTOR ¬5.$0¬"RATISLAVA¬2EGIONAL¬#ENTRE -ARCIN¬3WIECICKI #O ORDINATOR¬OF¬/3#%¬%CONOMIC¬AND¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬!CTIVITIES #HRIS¬$E7ISPELAERE $IRECTOR ¬.!4/¬3ECURITY¬4HROUGH¬3CIENCE¬0ROGRAMME 0REFACE¬¬)NTRODUCTION %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

*IVKLEREMWEWQEPPGSYRXV]EFSYRHMRKMRKVEMR ERHJVYMXW

*IVKLEREMWWMXYEXIHMRXLIJMJXLGPMQEXIERH EXXLIPMQMXSJWIXXPIHLEFMXEXMSR-XMWKMVXVSYRH F]QSYRXEMRWI\GITXSRXLI[IWX

)NTRODUCTION %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY

#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬STANDS¬AT¬THE¬CROSSROADS¬BETWEEN¬!SIA ¬%UROPE¬ s INFORMATION¬HELD¬BY¬%.63%#¬AGENCIES¬AND¬PARTNERS ¬NOT¬ AND¬THE¬-IDDLE¬%AST¬/SH ¬+OKAND ¬&ERGHANA¬AND¬+HUJAND¬ LEAST¬THE¬5.$0¬0REVENTIVE¬$EVELOPMENT¬0ROGRAMME¬ ARE¬NAMES¬THAT¬BRING¬TO¬MIND¬THE¬ANCIENT¬3ILK¬2OAD¬4HIS¬PUB EARLY¬WARNING¬COMPONENT ¬AND¬THE¬3WISSPEACE¬EARLY¬ LICATION¬FOCUSES¬ON¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬n¬/SH¬n¬+HUJAND¬AREA¬ALSO¬ WARNING¬PROJECT¬&!34 ¬DATABASE REFERRED¬TO¬BELOW¬AS¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬4HE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ s %.63%#¬ lELD¬ WORK¬ AND¬ CONSULTATIONS ¬ INCLUDING¬ THE¬ IS¬THE¬MOST¬FERTILE ¬DENSELY¬POPULATED¬REGION¬IN¬THE¬WHOLE¬OF¬ 5.%0 5.$0 /3#%¬MISSION¬TO¬CAPITALS¬IN¬!UGUST 3EP #ENTRAL¬!SIA¬AND¬RETAINS ¬IN¬SOME¬RESPECTS ¬THE¬IMPORTANCE¬ TEMBER¬ ¬lELD¬WORK¬BY¬5.%0 ¬/3#% ¬.!4/ ¬THE¬)TAL IT¬ENJOYED¬WHEN¬IT¬WAS¬A¬STAGE¬ALONG¬THE¬ANCIENT¬3ILK¬2OAD¬ IAN¬-INISTRY¬OF¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬LOCAL¬COUNTERPARTS¬ !T¬PRESENT¬THE¬VALLEY¬STRADDLES¬THREE¬COUNTRIES¬n¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬ IN¬.OVEMBER $ECEMBER¬ ¬AND¬lNAL¬CONSULTATIONS¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬ n¬ WHICH¬ EMERGED¬ AS¬ SOVEREIGN¬ IN¬/SH¬IN¬$ECEMBER¬¬INVOLVING¬REPRESENTATIVES¬OF¬ STATES¬AFTER¬THE¬COLLAPSE¬OF¬THE¬3OVIET¬5NION¬4HIS¬REPORT¬TAKES¬ +YRGYZSTAN ¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬ THE¬LINK¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬AS¬THE¬STARTING¬ s FEEDBACK¬RECEIVED¬FROM¬THE¬VARIOUS¬COUNTRIES¬ON¬THE¬ POINT¬FOR¬ITS¬CONSIDERATION¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY BACKGROUND¬REPORT¬PREPARED¬BY¬%.63%#¬IN¬.OVEMBER¬ ¬AND¬ON¬THE¬ELEMENTS¬OF¬THE¬%.63%#¬&ERGHANA¬ 4HE¬ REPORT¬ IS¬ THE¬ RESULT¬ OF¬ AN¬ IN DEPTH¬ ASSESSMENT¬ OF¬ VALLEY¬WORK¬PROGRAMME¬PRESENTED¬IN¬/SH¬ MAJOR¬ISSUES¬AND¬AREAS¬OF¬CONCERN¬ENVIRONMENT SECURITY¬ HOTSPOTS ¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬CARRIED¬OUT¬BY¬THE¬%NVI !FTER¬ PRESENTING¬ THE¬ %NVIRONMENT¬ AND¬ 3ECURITY¬ INITIATIVE ¬ RONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬INITIATIVE¬%.63%# ¬IN¬ ¬4HE¬ WE¬WILL¬INTRODUCE¬THE¬THEORETICAL¬BACKGROUND¬USED¬FOR¬EX ASSESSMENT¬AIMS¬TO¬IDENTIFY¬NEEDS¬AND¬PAVE¬THE¬WAY¬FOR¬ AMINING¬THE¬LINKS¬BETWEEN¬SECURITY¬AND¬ENVIRONMENT¬4HE¬ FURTHER¬WORK¬RESOLVING¬SPECIlC¬PROBLEMS¬)T¬ALSO¬SEEKS¬TO¬ FOLLOWING¬CHAPTER¬IS¬AN¬ANALYSIS¬OF¬THE¬OVERALL¬POLITICAL¬AND¬ DRAW¬THE¬ATTENTION¬OF¬REGIONAL¬AND¬INTERNATIONAL¬AUDIENCES¬ ECONOMICAL¬ FRAMEWORK¬ IN¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA ¬ POINTING¬ OUT¬ THE¬ TO¬IDENTIlED¬PROBLEMS¬)T¬ALSO¬AIMS¬TO¬DEVELOP¬COOPERATION¬ MAIN¬TRENDS¬AFFECTING¬THE¬SECURITY¬SITUATION¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ AND¬ACTIONS¬TO¬ADDRESS¬THE¬PROBLEMS¬FACING¬THIS¬COMPLEX ¬ VALLEY¬4HE¬NEXT¬CHAPTER¬DESCRIBES¬THE¬REGIONAL¬SITUATION¬ DYNAMIC¬PART¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ AND¬DISCUSSES¬VARIOUS¬CLUSTERS¬OF¬ISSUES¬THAT¬MAKE¬UP¬THE¬ ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬DIMENSION¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ 4HE¬REPORT¬DRAWS¬ON¬SEVERAL¬DIFFERENT¬SOURCES ¬IN¬PARTICULAR 4HE¬lNAL¬CHAPTER¬CONTAINS¬AN¬ATTEMPT¬AT¬A¬MORE¬LONG TERM¬ s ACADEMIC¬RESEARCH ¬REPORTS¬BY¬INTERNATIONAL¬AND¬LOCAL¬ OUTLOOK¬AND¬AN¬INTRODUCTION¬TO¬THE¬WORK¬PROGRAMME¬THAT¬ ORGANIZATIONS¬WORKING¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ON¬RELEVANT¬ISSUES ¬ THE¬%.63%#¬INITIATIVE¬WILL¬BE¬IMPLEMENTING¬IN¬THE¬AREA¬IN¬ ARTICLES¬PUBLISHED¬IN¬DIFFERENT¬MEDIA ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

!BOUT¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬INITIATIVE

!CKNOWLEDGING¬THE¬MULTIFACETED¬CHARACTER¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ s 4HE¬ ENVIRONMENT¬ AND¬ NATURAL¬ RESOURCES¬ CAN¬ BE¬ PER SOURCES¬OF¬HUMAN¬INSECURITY ¬FOUR¬ORGANIZATIONS¬WITH¬DIFFER CEIVED¬AS ¬A¬MEANS¬OF¬CONTROL¬AND¬PERSUASION¬EXERTED¬ ENT¬MANDATES ¬EXPERTISE ¬AND¬NETWORKS¬¬THE¬/RGANIZATION¬ BY¬ONE¬COUNTRY¬OR¬COMMUNITY¬OVER¬ANOTHER¬UPSTREAM FOR¬3ECURITY¬AND¬#OOPERATION¬IN¬%UROPE¬/3#% ¬THE¬5NITED¬ DOWNSTREAM¬RELATIONS .ATIONS¬%NVIRONMENT¬0ROGRAMME¬5.%0 ¬THE¬5NITED¬.A TIONS¬ $EVELOPMENT¬ 0ROGRAMME¬ 5.$0 ¬ AND¬ THE¬ .ORTH¬ !T¬THE¬SAME¬TIME¬RIGHT HAND¬CIRCLE¬IN¬THE¬DIAGRAM ¬%.63%#¬ !TLANTIC¬4REATY¬/RGANIZATION¬.!4/ ¬¬JOINED¬TOGETHER¬TO¬ LOOKS¬AT¬SITUATIONS¬WHERE¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬COOPERATION¬MAY¬ FORM¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬INITIATIVE¬%.63%# ¬ HELP¬BUILD¬A¬COMMON¬UNDERSTANDING¬OF¬OTHER¬MORE¬GENERAL¬ ISSUES¬&OR¬EXAMPLE ¬JOINT¬COLLECTION¬OF¬DATA¬OR¬MANAGE !MONG¬THE¬VARIOUS¬FORMS¬OF¬INTERACTION¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRON MENT¬OF¬A¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬NATURE¬RESERVE¬WILL¬NOT¬IMMEDI MENT¬ AND¬ SECURITY ¬ %.63%#¬ SEEKS¬ TO¬ IDENTIFY¬ AND¬ MAP¬ ATELY¬REDUCE¬INSECURITY¬PER¬SE ¬BUT¬MAY¬HELP¬TO¬BUILD¬TRUST¬ SITUATIONS¬IN¬WHICH¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬PROBLEMS¬THREATEN¬TO¬GEN AND¬STRENGTHEN¬COOPERATION¬5LTIMATELY ¬IT¬IS¬BELIEVED¬THAT¬ ERATE¬TENSIONS¬LEFT HAND¬CIRCLE¬IN¬THE¬DIAGRAM ¬n¬BETWEEN¬ TRANSBOUNDARY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬COOPERATION¬CAN¬CONTRIBUTE¬ COMMUNITIES ¬COUNTRIES¬OR¬REGIONS ¬WHERE¬FOR¬EXAMPLE¬ TO¬PEACE¬BUILDING¬#ONCA¬AND¬$ABELKO ¬ s 7ATER¬OR¬AIR¬POLLUTION¬IN¬ONE¬COMMUNITY¬IS¬A¬SOURCE¬OF¬ INSECURITY¬IN¬ANOTHER "Y¬PROVIDING¬A¬FRAMEWORK¬FOR¬COOPERATION¬ON¬LOCAL¬AND¬TRANS s !LLOCATION¬OR¬USE¬OF¬LAND¬RESOURCES¬CREATES¬INSTABILITY¬ BOUNDARY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ISSUES ¬%.63%#¬SEEKS¬TO¬PROMOTE¬ BETWEEN¬NEIGHBOURING¬REGIONS MUTUAL¬ CONlDENCE¬ AND¬ PEACE¬ )T¬ BUILDS¬ ON¬ THE¬ COMBINED¬

)NTRODUCTION %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

Fowjsponfou!boe!Tfdvsjuz!Jojujbujwf; Upebzt!qsjpsjujft!boe!gvuvsf!dibmmfohft STRENGTHS¬AND¬lELD¬PRESENCE¬OF¬THE¬LEAD¬ORGANIZATIONS¬TO¬FULlL¬ THREE¬KEY¬FUNCTIONS¬ASSESSING¬VULNERABILITY ¬AND¬MONITORING¬ UIF ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬LINKAGES¬BUILDING¬CAPACITY¬AND¬DE BSDUJD VELOPING¬INSTITUTIONS¬AND¬DEVELOPING ¬IMPLEMENTING ¬AND¬AD VOCATING¬INTEGRATION¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AND¬SECURITY¬CONCERNS¬ AND¬PRIORITIES¬IN¬INTERNATIONAL¬AND¬NATIONAL¬POLICY MAKING¬

%.63%#¬ASSESSMENT¬WORK¬FOCUSES¬ON¬IDENTIFYING¬ENVIRON MENTAL¬SOURCES¬OF¬INSECURITY¬AND¬OPPORTUNITIES¬FOR¬COOPERA TION¬)T¬ATTEMPTS¬TO¬lND¬AREAS¬FOR¬PRIORITY¬ACTION¬BY¬PARTNER¬ ORGANIZATIONS¬ AND¬ AFFECTED¬ COMMUNITIES¬ %.63%#¬ USES¬ REGIONAL¬ APPROACH¬ BECAUSE¬ A¬ MULTILATERAL¬ PERSPECTIVE¬ IS¬ FBTUFSO NEEDED¬TO¬ADDRESS¬MANY¬POTENTIAL¬SOURCES¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ FVSPQF CONmICT¬AND¬THREATS¬TO¬HUMAN¬SECURITY ¬ 4HE¬PILOT¬PHASE¬OF¬THE¬INITIATIVE¬IN¬¬ASSESSED¬ENVIRON MENTAL¬THREATS¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬AND¬3OUTH %ASTERN¬%UROPE ¬ TWO¬REGIONS¬WHERE¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CONCERNS¬HAVE¬CLEAR¬SE DFOUSBM CURITY¬IMPLICATIONS¬4HE¬3OUTHERN¬#AUCASUS¬JOINED¬IN¬ ¬ TPVUIFSO BTJB DBVDBTVT AND¬WE¬LOOK¬FORWARD¬TO¬WELCOMING¬%ASTERN¬%UROPE¬AS¬WELL¬ TPVUI.FBTUFSO AS¬THE¬#IRCUMPOLAR¬!RCTIC¬IN¬ ¬)N¬EACH¬REGION¬WORK¬ FVSPQF STARTS¬BY¬IDENTIFYING ¬THROUGH¬CONSULTATION¬WITH¬NATIONAL¬AND¬ NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 REGIONAL¬STAKEHOLDERS ¬PRIORITY¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬IS SUES¬AND¬SITUATIONS¬4HE¬SUBSEQUENT¬STAGE¬MOVES¬TO¬THE¬LO #OUNCILS¬AND¬AT¬OTHER¬INTERNATIONAL¬AND¬REGIONAL¬MEETINGS¬ CAL¬LEVEL¬IN¬THE¬REGIONS¬AND¬COUNTRIES ¬WITH¬SPECIlC¬HOTSPOTS¬ SUCH¬AS¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬FOR¬%UROPE¬MINISTERIAL¬MEETING¬FOR¬ BEING¬ASSESSED¬AND¬INTER AGENCY¬INTERVENTION¬DESIGNED¬FOR¬ %%##!¬COUNTRIES¬IN¬4BILISI¬IN¬ THE¬FOLLOWING¬YEARS¬4HIS¬IS¬EXACTLY¬THE¬STAGE¬THAT¬%.63%#¬ HAS¬REACHED¬WITH¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA 2EGULAR¬ LINKS¬ WITH¬ NATIONAL¬ 'OVERNMENTS¬ ARE¬ MAINTAINED¬ THROUGH¬5.$0¬AND¬/3#%¬NETWORKS¬OF¬COUNTRY¬MISSIONS¬AND¬ %.63%#¬IS¬GOVERNED¬BY¬A¬-EMORANDUM¬OF¬5NDERSTANDING¬ THROUGH¬.ATIONAL¬&OCAL¬0OINTS¬APPOINTED¬BY¬THE¬'OVERNMENTS ¬ SIGNED¬BY¬5.%0 ¬5.$0¬AND¬/3#%¬IN¬ ¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬AN¬ TYPICALLY¬REPRESENTING¬-INISTRIES¬OF¬&OREIGN¬!FFAIRS¬AND¬THE¬%N AGREEMENT¬ON¬ASSOCIATION¬WITH¬.!4/¬THROUGH¬ITS¬0UBLIC¬$I VIRONMENT¬$URING¬IMPLEMENTATION¬OF¬SPECIlC¬PROJECTS ¬NATIONAL¬ PLOMACY¬$IVISION¬!¬0ROGRAMME¬-ANAGEMENT¬5NIT¬LOCATED¬AT¬ INTER SECTORAL¬WORKING¬GROUPS¬CAN¬BE¬ESTABLISHED¬IN¬HOST¬COUN 5.%0¬IN¬'ENEVA¬COORDINATES¬ALL¬OPERATIONS ¬FUND RAISING¬AND¬ TRIES¬4HROUGH¬REGULAR¬BRIElNGS¬FOR¬SENIOR¬GOVERNMENT¬OFlCIALS ¬ REPORTING¬FOR¬THE¬INITIATIVE¬4HE¬%.63%#¬-ANAGEMENT¬"OARD ¬ %.63%#¬ACTIVITIES¬ARE¬ALSO¬COORDINATED¬WITH¬ONGOING¬POLICY¬ CONSISTING¬OF¬SENIOR¬MEMBERS¬OF¬THE¬RESPECTIVE¬ORGANIZATIONS ¬ PROCESSES ¬INCLUDING¬THE¬IMPLEMENTATION¬OF¬THE¬%NVIRONMEN APPROVES¬STRATEGIC¬GUIDELINES¬AND¬ALLOCATION¬OF¬FUNDS TAL¬3TRATEGY¬FOR¬%ASTERN¬%UROPE ¬#AUCASUS¬AND¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ %%##! ¬LAUNCHED¬IN¬+YIV¬IN¬¬5.%#%¬ ¬ .ATIONAL¬'OVERNMENTS¬ARE¬STRONGLY¬REPRESENTED¬IN¬THE¬%. 63%#¬PROCESS¬THROUGH¬PARTNERSHIPS¬WITH¬ALL¬THE¬FOUNDING¬ !CADEMIC¬ COMMUNITY¬ AND¬ CIVIL¬ SOCIETY¬ ORGANIZATIONS¬ ARE¬ ORGANIZATIONS¬-INISTRIES¬OF¬&OREIGN¬!FFAIRS¬AND¬-INISTRIES¬ INVOLVED¬IN¬NATIONAL¬AND¬REGIONAL¬SCOPING¬CONSULTATIONS ¬AND¬ OF¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬lRMLY¬ENDORSED¬THE¬%.63%#¬APPROACH¬ TAKE¬PART¬IN¬COUNTRY¬WORKING¬GROUPS¬AND¬SPECIlC¬PROJECT¬AC AT¬THE¬&IFTH¬%NVIRONMENT¬FOR¬%UROPE¬MINISTERIAL¬CONFERENCE¬ TIVITIES¬!T¬AN¬INTERNATIONAL¬LEVEL¬%.63%#¬MAINTAINS¬LINKS¬WITH¬ IN¬+YIV¬IN¬ ¬AT¬/3#%¬%CONOMIC¬&ORA¬AND¬-INISTERIAL¬ RESEARCH¬AND¬POLICY¬ORGANIZATIONS¬WITH¬RELEVANT¬EXPERTISE ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

5NDERSTANDING¬LINKS¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY

4HE¬LINKS¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬ARE¬THE¬FOCUS¬ ,IVELIHOOD¬$ElNITION OF¬DEBATE¬IN¬INTERNATIONAL¬POLICY¬CIRCLES¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬IN¬THE¬ ACADEMIC¬COMMUNITY¬4HIS¬REPORT¬IS¬BASED¬ON¬A¬SPECIlC ¬ !¬LIVELIHOOD¬COMPRISES¬THE¬CAPABILITIES ¬ASSETS¬STORES ¬ CONmICT ORIENTED¬APPROACH¬TO¬THE¬CONCEPT¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ RESOURCES ¬CLAIMS ¬AND¬ACCESS ¬AND¬ACTIVITIES¬REQUIRED¬ SECURITY¬AND¬FOCUSES¬ON¬IDENTIFYING¬LINKAGES¬BETWEEN¬ENVI FOR¬A¬MEANS¬OF¬LIVING RONMENTAL¬DEGRADATION¬AND¬CONmICT¬IN¬A¬GIVEN¬REGION

-ODERN¬CONmICTS¬ARE¬COMPLEX ¬UNFOLDING¬ON¬SEVERAL¬LEVELS¬ 3OURCE¬#HAMBERS¬AND¬#ONWAY ¬ 2ESEARCHERS¬EMPHASIZE¬THAT¬VARIOUS¬FORMS¬OF¬STRESS¬MAY¬ ENGENDER¬INSECURITY¬WHEREAS¬OTHER¬FACTORS¬PROMOTE¬SECURITY¬ WELFARE¬INTO¬A¬CONDITION¬OF¬POVERTY¬OR¬DESTITUTIONv¬)T¬IS¬THE¬ FOR¬INDIVIDUALS¬AND¬GROUPS¬SEE¬TABLE¬BELOW RAPID¬PROCESS¬OF¬CHANGE¬RESULTING¬IN¬A¬SUDDEN¬FALL¬INTO¬POV ERTY¬THAT¬CREATES¬THE¬POTENTIAL¬FOR¬LIVELIHOOD¬CONmICTS !LTHOUGH¬STILL¬VERY¬BROAD¬IN¬ITS¬SCOPE ¬THE¬TABLE¬BELOW¬UN DERLINES¬THE¬NEED¬TO¬LOOK¬AT¬THE¬PROBLEMS¬AND¬ISSUES¬THAT¬ 4HERE¬ARE¬MANY¬POSSIBLE¬CAUSES¬FOR¬LOSS¬OF¬LIVELIHOOD¬IN¬ DECREASE¬THE¬RESILIENCE¬OF¬GROUPS¬AND¬SOCIETIES¬AND¬MAKE¬ THE¬CONTEMPORARY¬WORLD¬THOUGH¬THEY¬ARE¬MOSTLY¬RELATED¬TO¬ THEM¬ MORE¬ VULNERABLE¬ TO¬ THREATS ¬ INCLUDING¬ THE¬ THREAT¬ OF¬ JOB¬SCARCITY ¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬AND¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬DEG VIOLENT¬ CONmICT¬ %MPIRICALLY¬ IT¬ HAS¬ BEEN¬ DIFlCULT¬ TO¬ DEM RADATION¬OF¬KEY¬RESOURCES¬SUCH¬AS¬WATER¬AND¬ARABLE¬LAND¬ ONSTRATE¬ THAT¬ EITHER¬ POVERTY¬ OR¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ FACTORS ¬ IN¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬ SCARCITIES¬ OF¬ THESE¬ TWO¬ ASSETS¬ CONSTITUTE¬ AND¬ BY¬ THEMSELVES ¬ ARE¬ STRONG¬ DETERMINANTS¬ OF¬ CONmICT¬ A¬SPECIAL¬CASE¬OF¬GROWING¬IMPORTANCE¬!LTHOUGH¬ROUGHLY¬ (OWEVER ¬RECENT¬RESEARCH¬/HLSSON ¬ ¬SHOWS¬THAT¬LOSS¬ HALF¬THE¬WORLDS¬POPULATION¬NOW¬LIVES¬IN¬CITIES ¬AGRICULTURE¬ OF¬LIVELIHOODS¬IS¬THE¬COMMON¬DENOMINATOR¬FOR¬MANY¬OF¬THE¬ IS¬STILL¬BY¬FAR¬THE¬LARGEST¬SINGLE¬SOURCE¬OF¬LIVELIHOODS¬AND¬ INTERNAL¬CONmICTS¬OF¬THE¬LAST¬DECADES INCOME¬

/HLSSON¬ARGUES¬THAT¬hWHILE¬POVERTY¬MAY¬BE¬A¬NEAR ENDEMIC¬ 4HE¬ RAPID¬ NEGATIVE¬ CHANGES¬ ASSOCIATED¬ WITH¬ THE¬ LOSS¬ OF¬ CONDITION¬IN¬CERTAIN¬SOCIETIES ¬LOSS¬OF¬LIVELIHOODS¬MARKS¬A¬ LIVELIHOODS¬ UNDERMINE¬ THE¬ RESILIENCE¬ OF¬ SOCIETIES¬ n¬ THEIR¬ RAPID¬TRANSITION¬FROM¬A¬PREVIOUS¬STABLE¬CONDITION¬OF¬RELATIVE¬ CAPACITY¬TO¬ABSORB¬SHOCKS¬n¬AND¬INCREASE¬VULNERABILITY¬TO¬

3ECURITY 0ROMOTING¬-ECHANISMS¬VERSUS¬)NSECURITY 0ROMOTING¬-ECHANISMS

3YSTEM 3ECURITY 0ROMOTING¬-ECHANISMS )NSECURITY 0ROMOTING¬-ECHANISMS

%CONOMIC 7EALTH 0OVERTY 7ELFARE¬0OLICIES )NEQUALITY 0OLITICAL ,AW #ORRUPTION ,EGITIMATE¬FORCE 5NLAWFUL¬USE¬OF¬FORCE #ULTURAL 3OCIAL¬IDENTITY $ISCRIMINATION *USTICE )NJUSTICE $EMOGRAPHIC ,OW¬BIRTH¬RATE (IGH¬BIRTH¬RATE 5RBANIZATION 2APID¬POPULATION¬mOWS %COLOGICAL ,IFE¬SUPPORT 3CARCITY 2AW¬MATERIALS $ISEASES

3OURCE¬$ABELKO¬ET¬AL ¬¬IN¬-ALTAIS¬ET¬AL )NTRODUCTION %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

TENSION¬AND¬EVEN¬VIOLENT¬CONmICT¬"UT¬NOT¬ALL¬FORMS¬OF¬TEN !FTER¬ LOOKING¬ AT¬ THE¬ CONDITIONS¬ THAT¬ MAKE¬ VIOLENT ¬ ENVI SION¬AND¬CONmICT¬TURN¬VIOLENT RONMENTALLY INDUCED¬ CONmICT¬ POSSIBLE ¬ AND¬ CONSIDERING¬ WHICH¬REGIONS¬ARE¬STRUCTURALLY¬MORE¬VULNERABLE¬TO¬CONmICT ¬ 4HE¬3WISS¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬#ONmICTS¬0ROJECT¬STUDIED¬THE¬ ATTENTION¬MUST¬FOCUS¬ON¬THE¬PATTERNS¬OF¬CAUSATION¬BEHIND¬ CONDITIONS¬THAT¬ALLOW¬SOCIAL¬CONmICTS¬TO¬CROSS¬THE¬THRESHOLD¬ VIOLENT¬CONmICT¬ OF¬VIOLENCE¬AND¬CONCLUDED¬THAT¬ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED¬ CONmICTS¬RESULT¬IN¬VIOLENCE¬ONLY¬IF¬AND¬WHEN¬SOME¬OF¬THE¬ 2ESEARCH¬CARRIED¬OUT¬IN¬3WITZERLAND¬AND¬#ANADA¬NOTED¬THAT¬ FOLLOWING¬lVE¬KEY¬SITUATIONS¬COINCIDE THE¬TYPICAL¬CAUSAL¬PATHWAY¬TO¬CONmICT¬INVOLVES¬ s )NEVITABLE¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CONDITIONS¬'ROUP¬SURVIVAL¬IS¬ s $EPENDENCY¬ON¬NATURAL¬CAPITAL DEPENDENT¬ON¬DEGRADED¬RESOURCES¬FOR¬WHICH¬NO¬SUBSTI s %NVIRONMENTAL¬SCARCITY¬ARISING¬EITHER¬WHEN¬THE¬QUALITY¬ TUTES¬ARE¬APPARENT¬AND¬EVENTUALLY¬THE¬GROUP¬FACES¬AN¬INEVI AND¬QUANTITY¬OF¬RENEWABLE¬RESOURCES¬DECREASES¬SUPPLY TABLE¬AND¬THEREFORE¬DESPERATE¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬SITUATION INDUCED¬SCARCITY ¬THE¬POPULATION¬INCREASES¬DEMAND IN s ,ACK¬ OF¬ REGULATORY¬ MECHANISMS¬ AND¬ POOR¬ STATE¬ DUCED¬SCARCITY ¬ANDOR¬WHEN¬RESOURCE¬ACCESS¬BECOMES¬ PERFORMANCE¬7HEN¬A¬POLITICAL¬SYSTEM¬IS¬INCAPABLE¬OF¬ MORE¬UNEQUAL¬STRUCTURAL¬SCARCITY ¬(OMER $IXON ¬ ¬ PRODUCING¬CERTAIN¬SOCIAL¬AND¬POLITICAL¬CONDITIONS ¬IT¬BE %NVIRONMENTAL¬SCARCITY ¬IN¬TURN ¬CAN¬PRODUCE¬lVE¬TYPES¬OF¬ COMES¬IMPOSSIBLE¬TO¬ACHIEVE¬GOALS¬SUCH¬AS¬SUSTAINABLE¬ SOCIAL¬EFFECTS¬CONSTRAINED¬AGRICULTURAL¬PRODUCTIVITY¬CON USE¬OF¬RESOURCES¬4HIS¬SHORTCOMING¬IS¬EITHER¬DUE¬TO¬A¬ STRAINED¬ECONOMIC¬PRODUCTIVITY¬MIGRATION¬OF¬AFFECTED¬ LACK¬OF¬STATE¬OUTPUTS¬REGARDING¬RESOURCE¬MANAGEMENT¬ PEOPLE¬GREATER¬SEGMENTATION¬OF¬SOCIETY ¬USUALLY¬ALONG¬ AND¬LIVELIHOOD¬SECURITY¬OR¬TO¬DISRUPTION¬OF¬SOCIAL¬INSTITU EXISTING¬ETHNIC¬CLEAVAGES¬AND¬DISRUPTION¬OF¬INSTITUTIONS ¬ TIONS¬DESIGNED¬TO¬REGULATE¬ACCESS¬TO¬RESOURCES ESPECIALLY¬THE¬STATE¬IN¬-ARAIS¬ET¬AL ¬¬ s )NSTRUMENTALISING¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬$OMINANT¬PLAYERS¬ s %NVIRONMENTAL¬DISCRIMINATION¬IN¬TERMS¬OF¬UNEQUAL¬AC USE¬ OR¬ MANIPULATE¬ THE¬ ENVIRONMENT¬ TO¬ SERVE¬ SPECIlC¬ CESS¬TO¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES ¬IS¬A¬KEY¬MECHANISM¬SINCE¬IT¬ GROUP¬INTERESTS ¬MAKING¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬DISCRIMINATION¬ CAUSES¬MARGINALIZATION¬OF¬A¬GROUP ¬WHICH¬IN¬TURN¬STIMU AN¬IDEOLOGICAL ¬ISSUE¬OF¬GROUP¬IDENTITY LATES¬POPULATION¬MOVEMENT¬"AECHLER ¬ ¬ ¬$EG s /PPORTUNITIES¬ TO¬ BUILD¬ ORGANIZATIONS¬ AND¬ lND¬ AL RADATION¬OF¬RENEWABLE¬RESOURCES¬AND¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬ LIES¬0LAYERS¬ORGANIZE¬THEMSELVES¬ALONG¬POLITICAL¬LINES¬ THAT¬CAUSE¬UNEQUAL¬ACCESS¬TO¬RESOURCES¬MAY¬LEAD¬TO¬A¬ n¬OFTEN¬BEHIND¬A¬STRONG¬LEADER¬n¬AND¬GAIN¬ALLIES¬EITHER¬ SITUATION¬OF¬RESOURCE¬CAPTURE¬IN¬WHICH¬ELITES¬GAIN¬CONTROL¬ FROM¬GROUPS¬AFFECTED¬BY¬SIMILAR¬PROBLEMS ¬FROM¬CERTAIN¬ OVER¬SCARCE¬RESOURCES¬4HIS¬PHENOMENON¬IS¬OFTEN¬RELATED¬ FRATERNIZING ¬FACTIONS¬OF¬THE¬ELITE ¬OR¬FROM¬FOREIGN¬GROUPS¬ TO¬A¬MODERNIZATION¬AND¬DEVELOPMENT¬PROCESS¬WITH¬UN SUCH¬AS¬)'/S EVEN¬DISTRIBUTIVE¬IMPLICATIONS¬"AECHLER ¬ ¬ s 3PILLOVER¬ FROM¬ A¬ HISTORIC¬ CONFLICT¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬ s %COLOGICAL¬ MARGINALIZATION¬ WHEN¬ UNEQUAL¬ RESOURCE¬ DISCRIMINATION¬OCCURS¬WITHIN¬THE¬CONTEXT¬OF¬AN¬EXISTING¬ ACCESS¬AND¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬COMBINE¬TO¬DRIVE¬FURTHER¬ HISTORIC ¬CONmICT¬STRUCTURE¬AND ¬AS¬A¬RESULT ¬THE¬CONmICT¬ DEGRADATION¬OF¬RENEWABLE¬RESOURCES RECEIVES¬NEW¬IMPETUS 3OURCE¬AFTER¬"AECHLER ¬¬ ¬IN¬-ALTAIS¬ET¬AL ¬ &AILING¬TO¬MEET¬THE¬CHALLENGES¬RELATED¬TO¬THE¬RAPID¬NEGATIVE¬ CHANGES¬ASSOCIATED¬WITH¬LIVELIHOOD¬LOSSES¬CAN¬FUEL¬CONmICTS¬ AT¬COMMUNITY¬LEVEL¬AND¬CREATE¬AN¬OPPORTUNITY¬FOR¬POLITICAL¬ 4HE¬3WISS¬RESEARCH¬TEAM¬ALSO¬FOUND¬THAT¬VIOLENT¬CONmICTS¬ FORCES¬TO¬BUILD¬ON¬THE¬GRIEVANCES¬OF¬SOCIETY¬AND¬MOBILIZE¬ THAT¬ARE¬PARTLY¬CAUSED¬BY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬DEGRADATION¬ARE¬ POPULAR¬SUPPORT¬WHICH¬MAY¬UNDER¬CERTAIN¬CONDITIONS¬BE MORE¬LIKELY¬TO¬OCCUR¬IN¬MARGINAL¬VULNERABLE¬AREAS ¬TYPICALLY¬ COME¬VIOLENT¬-ORE¬SPECIlCALLY ¬UNSCRUPULOUS¬LEADERS¬WILL¬ ARID¬ PLAINS ¬ MOUNTAIN¬ AREAS¬ WITH¬ HIGHLAND LOWLAND¬ INTER GENERALLY¬lND¬IT¬EASIER¬TO¬MOBILIZE¬PEOPLE¬WHO¬HAVE¬SUFFERED¬ ACTIONS ¬ AND¬ TRANSNATIONAL¬ RIVER¬ BASINS¬ "AECHLER ¬ ¬ A¬ SUDDEN¬ DROP¬ IN¬ EXPECTATIONS ¬ DUE¬ TO¬ THE¬ LOSS¬ OF¬ THEIR¬ -OREOVER ¬ENVIRONMENTALLY¬INDUCED¬CONmICTS¬ARE¬MORE¬LIKELY¬ FAMILYS¬LIVELIHOOD ¬AND¬MUST¬ACCEPT¬A¬MUCH¬MORE¬LOWLY¬ TO¬HAPPEN¬AT¬INTRA STATE¬RATHER¬THAN¬INTERSTATE¬LEVEL¬ SITUATION¬IN¬SOCIETY¬THAN¬THEY¬THOUGHT¬THEY¬DESERVED ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

Dbvtbm!qbuixbz!pg!dpogmjdu!pwfs!obuvsbm!sftpvsdft

Qpqvmbujpo hspxui

Fowjsponfoubm Obuvsbm efhsbebujpo ejtbtufst

Fdpmphjdbm Fowjsponfoubm Mptt!pg nbshjobmjtbujpo tdbsdjuz mjwfmjippe Fowjsponfoubm ejtdsjnjobujpo Sfevdfe Njhsbujpo!pg fdpopnjd bggfdufe qspevdujwjuz qfpqmf Fowjsponfoubmmz Vofrvbm!bddftt joevdfe!dpogmjdu up!sftpvsdft Tfhnfoubujpo Ejtsvqujpo pg!tpdjfuz pg!jotujuvujpot

Sftpvsdf!dbquvsf Tijgu!jo Qsfqbsfe!cz!Mvjhj!Ef!Nbsujop sfhjpobm!cbmbodf

7HEN¬ LOOKING¬ AT¬ THE¬ PROCESSES¬ BEHIND¬ CONmICT¬ IT¬ IS¬ ES BE¬SOMEONE¬ABLE¬TO¬EXTRACT¬@ECONOMIC¬PROlT¬IN¬ORDER¬FOR¬ SENTIAL¬TO¬IDENTIFY¬PLAYERS¬WITH¬AN¬INCENTIVE¬FOR¬VIOLENCE¬ VIOLENCE¬TO¬OCCUR¬!CCESS¬TO¬SPECIlC¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES¬IS¬ 4HEY¬NEED¬TO¬ACCESS¬RESOURCES¬THAT¬FACILITATE¬MOBILIZATION¬ A¬FACTOR¬THAT¬CAN¬MOTIVATE¬ACTORS¬TO¬USE¬VIOLENCE¬AS¬MEANS¬ AND¬EXPANSION¬OF¬VIOLENCE¬7HAT¬IS¬CRITICAL¬IS¬NOT¬WHETHER¬ OF¬CONTROL¬DIAMONDS ¬OIL ¬TIMBER¬WARS PEOPLE¬ ACTUALLY¬ HAVE¬ A¬ REASON¬ TO¬ COMMIT¬ VIOLENCE ¬ BUT¬ WHAT¬ENABLES¬THEM¬TO¬CARRY¬IT¬OUT¬UNDER¬PARTICULAR¬CIRCUM "UT¬SOCIETY¬IS¬NOT¬POWERLESS¬WHEN¬CONFRONTED¬WITH¬CON STANCES¬)N¬THEIR¬RESEARCH ¬#OLLIER¬AND¬(OEFmER¬ ¬ARGUE¬ mICT¬)T¬HAS¬WAYS¬OF¬DEALING¬WITH¬IT¬)NSTITUTIONS ¬PARTICULARLY¬ THAT¬CONmICT¬MAY¬BE¬EXPLAINED¬EITHER¬BY¬GRIEVANCE¬OR¬BY¬ POLITICAL¬INSTITUTIONS¬AND¬CIVIL¬SOCIETY ¬CAN¬WORK¬TO¬DEFUSE¬ GREED¬4HEY¬CONCLUDE¬THAT¬IF¬WE¬WANT¬TO¬UNDERSTAND¬THE¬ CONmICT¬SITUATIONS¬OR¬THEY¬CAN¬FUEL¬DISCONTENT¬THROUGH¬POOR¬ CAUSES¬OF¬CONTEMPORARY¬CIVIL¬WARS¬WE¬SHOULD¬FOCUS¬LESS¬ GOVERNANCE ¬CORRUPTION¬AND¬INEFlCIENCY¬&INALLY ¬REGIONAL¬ ON¬EXPLANATIONS¬BASED¬ON¬GRIEVANCES¬AND¬LOOK¬INSTEAD¬AT¬ AND¬GLOBAL¬FACTORS¬CAN¬INCREASE¬OR¬DECREASE¬THE¬POSSIBILITY¬ THE¬GREED¬OF¬THOSE¬WHO¬HAVE¬AN¬INTEREST¬IN¬USING¬VIOLENCE¬ OF¬CONmICT¬7HEN¬A¬VARIETY¬OF¬THESE¬FACTORS¬ARE¬AT¬WORK ¬THERE¬ TO¬ ACHIEVE¬ THEIR¬ GOALS¬ %VEN¬ WHEN¬ PEOPLE¬ HAVE¬ REASONS¬ WILL¬BE¬WINDOWS¬OF¬VULNERABILITY ¬MOMENTS¬WHEN¬EVENTS¬SUCH¬ TO¬BE¬UNHAPPY¬ABOUT¬THEIR¬SITUATION ¬THIS¬DOES¬NOT¬MEAN¬ AS¬ELECTIONS ¬OR¬EVEN¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS ¬CAN¬TRIGGER¬HOSTILITY¬ THAT¬THEIR¬DISCONTENT¬ESCALATES¬INTO¬VIOLENCE¬4HERE¬SHOULD¬ OR¬EVEN¬FULL SCALE¬VIOLENCE )NTRODUCTION¬¬2EGIONAL¬CONTEXT %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

8LI7EMLYR6MZIVGSQQSRP]ORS[REWXLI;E XIVSJ/LYNERHGSQIWMRXSXLIGSYRXV]JVSQXLI RSVXLIEWXJPS[W[IWX[EVHXLVSYKLMXERHEJXIV TEWWMRKEPSRKXLIRSVXLSJ/LYNERH ERH XLI WSYXLSJ*EREOEXRS[ORS[REW7LELVYOLM]E XYVRWHMVIGXP]RSVXLERHKSIWXS8YVOMWXER-XHSIW RSXNSMRER]WIEFYXWMROWMRXSXLIWERHW

2EGIONAL¬CONTEXT

4HE¬SITUATION¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬CAN¬ONLY¬BE¬UNDER THAT¬FOLLOWED¬THE¬53 LED¬INTERVENTION¬IN¬!FGHANISTAN¬HAS¬ STOOD¬ WITHIN¬ THE¬ BROADER¬ CONTEXT¬ OF¬ THE¬ THREE¬ COUNTRIES¬ ADDED¬TO¬THIS¬CONCERN¬ n¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬n¬WHICH¬MEET¬IN¬ THE¬VALLEY¬)N¬THIS¬CHAPTER¬WE¬WILL¬LOOK¬AT¬SOME¬OF¬THE¬OVER 4HE¬STATES¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬HAVE¬MAINLY¬JOINED¬MULTILATERAL¬ ALL¬TRENDS¬CHARACTERIZING¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬SINCE¬THE¬END¬OF¬THE¬ REGIONAL¬ORGANIZATIONS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬#OOPERA 3OVIET¬5NION TION ¬THE¬#)3¬#OLLECTIVE¬3ECURITY¬4REATY¬AND¬THE¬3HANGHAI¬ #OOPERATION¬/RGANIZATION¬TO¬STRENGTHEN¬COOPERATION¬IN¬THE¬ 0OLITICAL¬AND¬SECURITY¬FACTORS lGHT¬AGAINST¬TERRORISM ¬EXTREMISM¬AND¬TRANS BORDER¬ORGAN IZED¬CRIME¬BUT¬ALSO¬TO¬PROMOTE¬ECONOMIC¬COOPERATION¬AND¬ 7ITH¬THE¬COLLAPSE¬OF¬THE¬3OVIET¬5NION¬THE¬NEWLY¬INDEPENDENT¬ TRADE¬!T¬THE¬SAME¬TIME¬THE¬LEGITIMATE¬NEED¬TO¬ESTABLISH¬ STATES¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬HAD¬TO¬FACE¬SEVERAL¬MAJOR¬CHALLENGES ¬ STATE¬CONTROL¬OVER¬NATIONAL¬TERRITORY¬AND¬THE¬SECURITY¬AGENDA¬ IN¬PARTICULAR¬THE¬CREATION¬OF¬A¬NATIONAL¬IDENTITY¬!LTHOUGH¬THE¬ OUTLINED¬ABOVE¬ENCOURAGED¬STATES¬IN¬THE¬REGION¬TO¬PURSUE¬ 3OVIET¬ 5NION¬ HAD¬ ALREADY¬ PROMOTED¬ A¬ SENSE¬ OF¬ NATIONAL¬ UNILATERAL¬POLICIES ¬WITH¬INCREASED¬MILITARIZATION¬OF¬BORDER¬ IDENTITY¬AND¬DISTINCTIVENESS ¬NATIONAL¬AGENDAS¬DEVELOPED¬ AREAS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬ONE¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬AREA¬%STABLISHING¬ FURTHER¬ AFTER¬ INDEPENDENCE ¬ MAKING¬ THE¬ DEFENCE¬ OF¬ PER CHECKPOINTS¬HAS¬ALREADY¬PROMPTED¬ARMED¬VIOLENCE¬IN¬ CEIVED¬NATIONAL¬INTEREST¬A¬REmEX¬RESPONSE¬WHEN¬DEALING¬WITH¬ ¬IN¬THE¬"ATKEN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬AND¬)SFARA¬4AJIKISTAN ¬REGIONS ¬ REGIONAL¬ ISSUES¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIAN¬ STATES¬ HAVE¬ CONSEQUENTLY¬ AFTER¬WHICH¬THE¬AUTHORITIES¬HAD¬TO¬BACK¬OFF¬/XFORD¬!NALYTICA ¬ PREFERRED¬BILATERAL ¬CASE BY CASE¬SOLUTIONS¬SO¬FAR¬4HIS¬HAS¬ $AILY¬"RIEF ¬ EXACERBATED¬ COMPETITION¬ BETWEEN¬ REGIONAL¬ PLAYERS¬ AND¬ REDUCED¬THE¬IMPACT¬OF¬REGIONAL¬COOPERATION¬INSTITUTIONS¬AND¬ #ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬STATES¬ARE¬MULTICULTURAL¬COUNTRIES ¬EACH¬WITH¬ INITIATIVES¬/N¬THE¬OTHER¬HAND¬CASE BY CASE¬MECHANISMS¬ ITS¬OWN¬NATIONAL¬MINORITIES¬IN¬OTHER¬STATES¬INCLUDING¬#HINA ¬ HAVE¬ALSO¬PREVENTED¬INTERSTATE¬CRISES¬FROM¬ESCALATING¬INTO¬ -ANAGING¬MINORITIES¬IS¬NOT¬ONLY¬AN¬ISSUE¬OF¬CONCERN¬WITHIN¬ OPEN¬VIOLENT¬CONmICT STATES¬BUT¬ALSO¬BETWEEN¬THEM¬4HE¬INTERNATIONAL¬BORDERS¬ BETWEEN¬ SOVEREIGN¬ STATES ¬ FOLLOWING¬ INDEPENDENCE ¬ NOT¬ 7ITH¬ INDEPENDENCE¬ IT¬ WAS¬ ALSO¬ NECESSARY¬ TO¬ DETERMINE¬ ONLY¬ HINDER¬ THE¬ ORDINARY¬ mOW¬ OF¬ GOODS¬ AND¬ PEOPLE ¬ BUT¬ AND¬STABILIZE¬THE¬COMPLEX¬NATIONAL¬BORDERS¬INHERITED¬FROM¬ ALSO¬ CONTRIBUTE¬ TO¬ SHAPING¬ OR¬ AT¬ LEAST¬ REINFORCING¬ ETHNIC¬ TSARIST¬AND¬3OVIET¬ADMINISTRATIONS¬4HE¬PRESENCE¬OF¬SEVEN¬ IDENTITY¬,ANGUAGE¬AND¬ALPHABET¬POLICIES¬AND¬CHANGES¬NOT¬ ENCLAVES¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬INCREASES¬THE¬COMPLEXITY¬ ONLY¬AFFECT¬THE¬RELATIONS¬OF¬MINORITIES¬WITH¬THE¬TITULAR¬STATE ¬ OF¬THE¬BORDER¬QUESTION¬4HOUGH¬STATES¬HAVE¬GENERALLY¬SOLVED¬ BUT¬ALSO¬CONTRIBUTE¬TO¬THE¬FRAGMENTATION¬PROCESS¬AFFECTING¬ THE¬MAIN¬QUESTIONS ¬WITHIN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬THERE¬ARE¬STILL¬ PRESENT DAY¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA SEVERAL¬UNRESOLVED¬QUESTIONS¬RELATED¬TO¬BORDER¬DELIMITATION¬ AND¬DEMARCATION )SLAM¬HAS¬FOR¬A¬LONG¬TIME¬BEEN¬PART¬OF¬THE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬ CULTURE¬5NDER¬2USSIAN¬IMPERIAL¬AND¬LATER¬3OVIET¬RULE¬)SLAM¬ 3EVERAL¬ FACTORS¬ HAVE¬ HEIGHTENED¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIAN¬ REGIMES¬ WAS¬IN¬MANY¬WAYS¬ISOLATED¬FROM¬)SLAMIC¬DEVELOPMENT¬IN¬ SENSE¬ OF¬ INSECURITY¬ ARMED¬ INCURSIONS¬ BY¬ OPPOSITION¬ THE¬REST¬OF¬THE¬WORLD¬/FlCIAL¬POLICIES¬ON¬)SLAM¬CHANGED¬ GROUPS¬HARBOURED¬BY¬NEIGHBOURING¬COUNTRIES¬PENETRATION¬ OVER¬TIME ¬FROM¬EFFORTS¬TO¬UNDERMINE¬IT¬TO¬A¬MORE¬ACCOM BY¬TRANSNATIONAL¬ORGANIZED¬CRIME¬NETWORKS¬DRUGS ¬ARMS ¬ MODATING¬ STANCE ¬ WITH¬ OFlCIALLY¬ APPROVED¬ CLERICS ¬ AFTER¬ HUMAN¬TRAFlCKING ¬THE¬ALLEGED¬SUCCESS¬OF¬RADICAL¬)SLAMIC¬ 7ORLD¬7AR¬))¬4HE¬RESULT¬OF¬3OVIET¬POLICIES¬WAS¬SECULARISA ORGANIZATIONS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬(IZB UT 4AHRIR¬OR¬"AYOT¬h/ATHv ¬ TION¬TO¬A¬SIGNIlCANT¬EXTENT ¬ALTHOUGH¬THIS¬WAS¬COUPLED¬WITH¬ MAINLY¬ IN¬ SPECIlC¬ AREAS¬ OF¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬ 3TABILITY¬ A¬POPULAR¬IDENTIlCATION¬WITH¬)SLAM¬AS¬SOMEWHAT¬MORE¬OF¬ AND¬SECURITY¬ARE¬CONSEQUENTLY¬HIGH¬ON¬THE¬POLITICAL¬AGENDA¬ AN¬ ETHNICIDENTITY¬ DETERMINANT¬ THAN¬ AN¬ INDICATOR¬ OF¬ RELI #ENTRAL¬ !SIAN¬ STATES ¬ THEIR¬ MAIN¬ NEIGHBOURS¬ AND¬ THE¬ 53¬ GIOUS¬BELIEF¬OR¬PRACTICE¬!FTER¬INDEPENDENCE ¬BOTH¬THE¬NEW¬ SHARE¬A¬SIMILAR¬INTEREST¬IN¬SECURITY¬4HE¬hWAR¬ON¬TERRORISMv¬ STATES¬AND¬SOCIETY¬GROUPS¬HAVE¬USED¬)SLAM¬AS¬A¬VECTOR¬OF¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

3WLLEWEJMRIGPMQEXIEREFYRHERGISJ VYRRMRK[EXIVWERHEQSWXFIEYXMJYPWTVMRK WIEWSR1ER]XVEHMXMSRWLEZIXLIMVVMWIMRMXW I\GIPPIRGMIW

STRENGTHENING¬IDENTITIES ¬BOTH¬NATIONAL¬IDENTITIES¬AND¬n¬FOR¬ MANY¬OPPOSITION¬GROUPS¬n¬POLITICAL¬IDENTITIES¬TOO¬(ENCE¬ Hsptt!Obujpobm!Jodpnf!)HOJ* )SLAM¬HAS¬AT¬PRESENT¬A¬DOUBLE¬ROLE¬AS¬A¬STABILIZING¬FACTOR¬ Lzshz{tubo-!Ubkjljtubo-!boe!V{cfljtubo AS¬WELL¬AS¬A¬MOBILIZING¬FACTOR¬SINCE¬OPPOSITION¬GROUPS¬HAVE¬ USED¬)SLAM¬TO¬CHANNEL¬GRIEVANCES HOJ!qfs!dbqjub!jo!VT!% Bummbt!nfuipe!)dvssfou!VT!%* 811 &INALLY¬POLITICAL¬TRANSITION¬AND¬CHANGE¬IS¬AN¬ISSUE¬OF¬CONCERN¬ #ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬COUNTRIES¬ARE¬STILL¬GOVERNED¬BY¬LEADERSHIP¬WITH¬ A¬COMMON¬BACKGROUND¬AND¬SOCIALIZATION¬4HIS¬HAS¬PLAYED¬ 711 A¬POSITIVE¬ROLE¬IN¬AVERTING¬CRISES¬AND¬OVERCOMING¬TENSIONS¬ V{cfljtubo "UT¬CENTRALIZED¬POLITICS¬MEANS¬INTERSTATE¬RELATIONS¬DEPEND¬A¬ GREAT¬DEAL¬ON¬PERSONAL¬RELATIONS¬WITHIN¬AND¬BETWEEN¬CENTRAL¬ 611 GOVERNMENT¬CIRCLES¬AND¬MAKES¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬POLITICAL¬CHANGE¬ EXTREMELY¬SENSITIVE ¬AS¬WAS¬EVIDENT¬DURING¬RECENT¬EVENTS¬ IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬IN¬ 511

%CONOMIC¬FACTORS Lzshz{tubo 411 4HE¬RATIONALE¬OF¬THE¬COMMON¬3OVIET¬MARKET¬AND¬ECONOMIC¬ SYSTEM¬HAS¬DISAPPEARED ¬FORCING¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬STATES¬TO¬lND¬ THEIR¬OWN¬POSITION¬IN¬THE¬GLOBAL¬MARKET¬WITHOUT¬THE¬SUPPORT¬ Ubkjljtubo OF¬A¬REDISTRIBUTIVE¬ECONOMY¬4HEIR¬GEOGRAPHICAL¬POSITION ¬ 311 LANDLOCKED¬BETWEEN¬TWO¬ECONOMIC¬AND¬POLITICAL¬hGIANTSv¬ n¬#HINA¬AND¬2USSIA¬n¬MAKES¬THEIR¬TASK¬DIFlCULT ¬ESPECIALLY¬FOR¬ POOR¬COUNTRIES¬4HE¬lVE¬COUNTRIES¬ARE¬DIFFERENTLY¬ENDOWED¬IN¬ 211 TERMS¬OF¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES ¬+AZAKHSTAN¬AND¬4URKMENISTAN¬ BENElTING¬THE¬MOST¬FROM¬THEIR¬LARGE¬ENERGY¬RESOURCES¬OIL¬ AND¬GAS ¬#ONTROL¬OF¬SUCH¬RESERVES¬AND¬THEIR¬TRANSPORT¬IS¬A¬ 1 KEY¬FACTOR¬IN¬THE¬INTEREST¬OF¬NEIGHBOURING¬STATES¬2USSIA ¬THE¬ 2::7 2::8 2::9 2:::3111 3112 3113 3114 #AUCASUS ¬)RAN ¬!FGHANISTAN¬AND¬#HINA ¬AND¬GLOBAL¬PLAYERS¬ Tpvsdf;!Xpsme!Cbol!Efwfmpqnfou!Joejdbupst!ebubcbtf SUCH¬AS¬THE¬53

4HOUGH¬ THERE¬ IS¬ NOMINAL¬ SUPPORT¬ FOR¬ ECONOMIC¬ REFORM ¬ AND¬ILLEGAL¬LEVIES¬AND¬DUTIES ¬HAVE¬A¬NEGATIVE¬IMPACT¬ON¬ PRACTICAL¬IMPLEMENTATION¬OF¬SUCH¬POLICIES¬HAS¬VARIED¬FROM¬ TRADE¬AND¬LIVING¬CONDITIONS¬IN¬AREAS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ ONE¬ COUNTRY¬ TO¬ THE¬ NEXT ¬ AND¬ WITHIN¬ INDIVIDUAL¬ COUNTRIES¬ VALLEY¬3UCH¬PRACTICES¬FAVOUR¬HARASSMENT ¬CORRUPTION¬AND¬ FROM¬ ONE¬ REGION¬ TO¬ ANOTHER¬4HE¬ PICTURE¬ IS¬ THE¬ SAME¬ FOR¬ SMUGGLING¬ AND¬ STRAIN¬ RELATIONS¬ BETWEEN¬ THE¬ POPULATION¬ ISSUES¬SUCH¬AS¬LAND¬PRIVATIZATION¬4HIS¬PHENOMENON¬HAS¬ AND¬ BORDER¬ FORCES¬ )NTERSTATE¬ CUSTOMS¬ AGREEMENTS¬ HAVE¬ CONTRIBUTED¬TO¬INCREASED¬POLITICAL ¬CULTURAL¬AND¬ECONOMIC¬ SO¬FAR¬BEEN¬INEFFECTIVE FRAGMENTATION¬OF¬A¬REGION¬FORMERLY¬CHARACTERIZED¬BY¬CON SIDERABLE¬INTEGRATION¬IN¬A¬LARGER¬MARKET ¬WITH¬A¬SINGLE¬SET¬OF¬ !LL¬ THREE¬ ECONOMIES¬ ARE¬ PREDOMINANTLY¬ AGRICULTURAL¬ !G 3OVIET ¬LAWS¬AND¬REGULATIONS¬AND¬THE¬REDISTRIBUTIVE¬BENElTS¬ RICULTURE¬ EMPLOYS¬ ¬ OF¬ THE¬ LABOUR¬ FORCE¬ IN¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬ OF¬THE¬3OVIET¬ECONOMY ¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬4HEY¬ALL¬RELY¬ ON¬ PRIMARY¬ EXPORTS¬ GOLD ¬ ALUMINIUM ¬ COTTON ¬ EXPOSING¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA¬ PRODUCES¬ RAW¬ MATERIALS¬ THAT¬ NEED¬ TO¬ BE¬ THEM¬TO¬mUCTUATING¬WORLD¬PRICES¬(EAVY¬RELIANCE¬ON¬COTTON¬ TRANSPORTED¬ OVER¬ LONG¬ DISTANCES¬ TO¬ REACH¬ MARKETS ¬ LOCAL¬ PRODUCTION¬SEE¬THE¬NEXT¬CHAPTER ¬AND¬OTHER¬CROPS¬MEANS¬ ONES¬BEING¬LIMITED¬IN¬SIZE¬AND¬PURCHASING¬POWER¬#REATING¬ THEIR¬ECONOMIES¬DEPEND¬A¬GREAT¬DEAL¬ON¬SEASONAL¬CLIMATE¬ NATIONAL¬BORDERS¬AND¬LEVYING¬CUSTOMS¬DUTY¬MAKES¬TRADE¬ AND¬WEATHER¬CONDITIONS ¬AND¬THE¬AVAILABILITY¬OF¬ARABLE¬LAND¬ AND¬ TRANSPORT¬ EXPENSIVE¬ AND¬ DIFlCULT¬ 2ESTRICTIVE¬ BORDER¬ AND¬ADEQUATE¬AMOUNTS¬OF¬WATER¬FOR¬IRRIGATION¬SEE¬DISCUS MANAGEMENT¬POLICIES¬AND¬PRACTICES ¬COMBINED¬WITH¬LEGAL¬ SION¬IN¬NEXT¬CHAPTER 2EGIONAL¬CONTEXT %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

8LI%RHMNERXSVVIRXKSIWXS%RHMNEREJXIVLEZMRK %ZIV]FIEYXMJYPWXSRI[MXL[EZ]VIHERH[LMXI XVEZIVWIHXLIWYFYVFWSJ3WL3VGLEVHWPMIEPSRK TEXXIVRW[EWJSYRHMRXLI&EVE/SLMRg9QEV FSXLMXWFEROW EPPXLI3WLKEVHIRWSZIVPSSOMX 7LEMOL1MV^EhWPEXXIVHE]W/RMJILERHPIW 8LIMVZMSPIXWEVIZIV]JMRI XLI]LEZIVYRRMRK GPEWTWJSVFIPXWERHQER]SXLIVXLMRKWEVI [EXIVWERHMRWTVMRKEVIQSWXFIEYXMJYP[MXL QEHIJVSQMX*SVGPMQEXIERHJSVTPIEWERXRIWW XLIFPSWWSQMRKSJQER]XYPMTWERHVSWIW RSXS[RWLMTMREPP*EVKLEREIUYEPW3WL

Qpqvmbujpo!fwpmvujpo!jo Lzshz{tubo-!Ubkjljtubo-!boe!V{cfljtubo njmmjpot 5NEMPLOYMENT¬BOTH¬FORCED¬AND¬VOLUNTARY ¬IS¬HIGH¬IN¬ALL¬THREE¬ 41 COUNTRIES¬ESPECIALLY¬AMONG¬YOUNG¬PEOPLE¬AND¬IN¬MARGINALIZED¬ REGIONS¬/#(!¬ESTIMATES¬THAT¬UNEMPLOYMENT¬IS¬PROBABLY¬ V{cfljtubo RUNNING¬AT¬ABOUT¬ ¬FOR¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬ 36 AND¬ ¬ IN¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬ 4HE¬ JOB¬ MARKET¬ IS¬ STEADILY¬ DETERIORATING¬-OREOVER ¬IN¬ALL¬THREE¬COUNTRIES¬ALMOST¬HALF¬THE¬ POPULATION¬IS¬UNDER¬THE¬AGE¬OF¬¬AND¬WILL¬SOON¬BE¬JOINING¬THE¬ WORKFORCE¬DRASTICALLY¬INCREASING¬UNEMPLOYMENT 31 7IDESPREAD¬ POVERTY¬ AND¬ UNEMPLOYMENT¬ HAVE¬ PROMPTED¬ SUBSTANTIAL¬INTERNAL¬MIGRATION¬FROM¬MARGINALIZED¬RURAL¬AREAS¬ TO¬URBAN¬AREAS¬PARTICULARLY¬CAPITAL¬CITIES ¬!¬SECOND¬COPING¬ 26 MECHANISM¬ HAS¬ BEEN¬ THE¬ HIGH¬ LEVEL¬ OF¬ LABOUR¬ MIGRATION¬ TO¬2USSIA¬4HIS¬MAINLY¬CONCERNS¬MEN¬)T¬HAS¬WORKED¬AS¬A¬ MAJOR¬SAFETY¬VALVE¬FOR¬THE¬REGION ¬ESPECIALLY¬FOR¬4AJIKISTAN ¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬MORE¬RECENTLY¬5ZBEKISTAN 21 Ubkjljtubo )F¬ WE¬ NOW¬ LOOK¬ AT¬ THE¬ MECHANISMS¬ FOSTERING¬ INSECURITY¬ DISCUSSED¬ABOVE¬IT¬WILL¬COME¬AS¬NO¬SURPRISE¬THAT¬THE¬CUR RENT¬SITUATION¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬DISPLAYS¬ALL¬THE¬FACTORS¬THAT¬ 6 ENCOURAGE¬INSECURITY Lzshz{tubo 4HE¬PERIOD¬FOLLOWING¬INDEPENDENCE¬PROVED¬A¬MAJOR¬CHALLENGE¬ 1 FOR¬THE¬NEWLY¬CREATED¬STATES¬$EPRIVED¬OF¬-OSCOWS¬HUMAN¬ 2::1 2::4 2::7 2::: 3113 AND¬lNANCIAL¬RESOURCES¬THE¬GOVERNMENTS¬OF¬THE¬VARIOUS¬COUN TRIES¬HAD¬TO¬COPE¬WITH¬AN¬ACCUMULATION¬OF¬NEGATIVE¬FORCES¬ Tpvsdf;!Xpsme!Cbol!Efwfmpqnfou!Joejdbupst!ebubcbtf RAPID¬DECLINE¬IN¬THE¬LIVING¬CONDITIONS¬OF¬LARGE¬SEGMENTS¬OF¬THE¬ POPULATION ¬WITH¬A¬DRAMATIC¬INCREASE¬IN¬POVERTY ¬UNEMPLOY /UTPUT¬BY¬THE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬ECONOMIES¬DROPPED¬SHARPLY¬AF MENT ¬INSECURITY¬AND¬INEQUALITY¬BREAKDOWN¬OF¬COMMUNAL¬AND¬ TER¬INDEPENDENCE¬WITH¬A¬SUBSEQUENT¬FALL¬IN¬LIVING¬CONDITIONS¬ STATE¬SERVICES¬ENFORCEMENT¬OF¬RESTRICTIVE¬BORDER¬REGULATIONS¬ 0OVERTY¬IS¬WIDESPREAD ¬ESPECIALLY¬IN¬RURAL¬AREAS¬#OMMUNAL¬ IMPACTING¬ NEGATIVELY¬ ON¬ REGIONAL¬ ECONOMIES¬ EMIGRATION¬ SERVICES¬HAVE¬BROKEN¬DOWN¬IN¬MANY¬AREAS¬&OR¬EXAMPLE¬ OF¬KEY¬MINORITIES¬AND¬THE¬DEVELOPMENT¬OF¬LABOUR¬MIGRATION¬ SEVERAL¬PARTS¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬INCLUDING¬CITIES¬SUCH¬AS¬ AS¬A¬SURVIVAL¬MECHANISM¬FOR¬WHOLE¬REGIONS¬4HIS¬PROCESS¬ !NDIJAN ¬&ERGHANA ¬/SH¬AND¬+HUJAND ¬SUFFER¬REGULAR¬POWER¬ HAS¬GONE¬HAND IN HAND¬WITH¬HIGH¬BIRTH¬RATES¬AND¬INCREASED¬ AND¬GAS¬CUTS ¬STRAINING¬RELATIONS¬BETWEEN¬THE¬POPULATION¬AND¬ ECONOMICAL¬ANDOR¬POLITICAL¬MARGINALIZATION¬OF¬GROUPS¬ETHNIC¬ LOCAL¬AUTHORITIES ¬INCREASINGLY¬THE¬FOCUS¬OF¬LOCAL¬PROTEST¬/NLY¬ MINORITIES ¬AND¬REGIONS¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬ECONOMIES¬CONTINUE¬ RECENTLY¬HAS¬THE¬ECONOMY¬IN¬SOME¬COUNTRIES¬SHOWN¬SIGNS¬OF¬ TO¬DEPEND¬ON¬EXTRACTION¬OF¬RAW¬MATERIALS¬AND¬AGRICULTURE¬ IMPROVING ¬BUT¬HIGH¬'$0¬GROWTH¬RATES¬HAVE¬NOT¬HELPED¬TO¬ ESPECIALLY¬THE¬COTTON¬MONOCULTURE¬INHERITED¬FROM¬THE¬3OVIET¬ REDUCE¬POVERTY¬AND¬SOCIAL¬INEQUALITY¬4HE¬ECONOMIC¬CRISIS¬ EPOCH ¬4HE¬SIGNIlCANCE¬OF¬LAND¬AND¬WATER¬HAS¬INCREASED¬ THAT¬FOLLOWED¬INDEPENDENCE¬EXACERBATED¬ECONOMIC¬DISPARI CONSIDERABLY¬-OST¬JOBS¬IN¬INDUSTRY¬AND¬OTHER¬TRADES¬HAVE¬ TIES¬BETWEEN¬URBAN¬AND¬RURAL¬AREAS¬AND¬BETWEEN¬REGIONS ¬ COLLAPSED¬OR¬PAY¬VERY¬LITTLE¬)N¬MANY¬CASES¬AGRICULTURE¬IS¬NOW¬ CONTRIBUTING¬TO¬GREATER¬HORIZONTAL¬INEQUALITY¬BETWEEN¬POPU THE¬MAIN¬SOURCE¬OF¬INCOME¬5NDER¬SUCH¬CIRCUMSTANCES¬WE¬ LATION¬GROUPS¬AND¬REGIONS¬7ITH¬SEVERAL¬SUB STATE¬REGIONS¬ MAY¬OBSERVE¬THAT¬ALL¬THE¬FACTORS¬LISTED¬IN¬THE¬TABLE¬AS¬FOSTERING¬ BECOMING¬INCREASINGLY¬MARGINALIZED¬THERE¬IS¬A¬RISK¬THEY¬WILL¬ INSECURITY¬SEE¬@5NDERSTANDING¬,INKS¬BETWEEN¬%NVIRONMENT¬ TURN¬INTO¬hINCUBATORS¬OF¬CONmICTv¬)#'¬ AND¬3ECURITY¬ABOVE ¬ARE¬ON¬THE¬INCREASE ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

&ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND¬)SSUES¬AND¬PROBLEM¬SPOTS

4HE¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬CONSULTATIONS¬IN¬!SHGABAT¬IN¬ %.63%#¬TEAMS¬SPENT¬THE¬WHOLE¬OF¬¬INVESTIGATING¬THE¬ ¬PINPOINTED¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬AS¬AN¬AREA¬OF¬SIGNIl SITUATION¬ IN¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬ REMOTELY¬ THROUGH¬ DESK¬ CANT¬CONCERN¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬5.%0 ¬5.$0 ¬/3#%¬ ¬ STUDY ¬AND¬MEETINGS¬AND¬DISCUSSIONS ¬AND¬DIRECTLY¬THROUGH¬ 4HE¬MAP¬BELOW¬SHOWS¬THE¬PRIORITY¬GEOGRAPHIC¬AREAS¬AND¬ lELD¬VISITS¬AND¬WORK¬ON¬CONCRETE¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬ THEMATIC¬ISSUES¬FOR¬POSSIBLE¬%.63%#¬ACTION¬ HOTSPOTS

[ifmf{ophpstl Dfousbm!Btjb;!qpmjujdbm!usbotjujpo!boe!fowjsponfoubm!sjtlt )Lsbtopzbstl.37* Tfwfstl Lsbtopzbstl Pc )Upntl.8* [fmfophpstl Upntl )Lsbtopzbstl.56*

SVTTJB Opwptjcjstl Jsuzti Mftopz )Twfsempwtl.56* Qfsn Opwpvsbmtl Cfmpzbstl )Twfsempwtl.55* Zflbufsjocvsh Pntl NPOHPMJB Oj{iojz!Opwhpspe P{fstl Tof{ijotl )Difmzbcjotl.76* Lb{bo )Difmzbcjotl.81* Nbzbl!Qspevdujpo Tbspw Utfmjooz Usflihpsozz Bttpdjbujpo )Lb{tbcupo* Pltfnfo )Bs{bnbt.27* )[mbupvtu.47* Difmzbcjotl )Vtu.Lbnfophpstl* Tfnfz )Tfnjqbmbujotl!uftu!tjuf* Nbhojuphpstl Tbnbsb Wpmhb [bsfdiozz Cbmblpwp )Qfo{b.2:* SVTTJB Mjsb Bsbm!Tfb DIJOB Sfhjpo LB[BLITUBO Mblf Lbqvtujo Cbmlibti Zbs Wpmhphsbe Bmnbuz B{hzs Bsbm Tfb Btusblibo Gfshibob LZSHZ[TUBO Wbmmfz Nbjmvv.Tvv Tbz. Blubv Vuft Dbtqjbo V[CFLJTUBO Tfb HFPSHJB UBKJLJTUBO

Nfutbnps B[FSCBJKBO BSNFOJB Cblv UVSLNFOJTUBO

Ovdmfbs!mfhbdjft Tpwjfu!mfhbdz!nbobhfnfou Xb ufs.sfmbufe!ufotjpot; Ovdmfbs!qpxfs!tubujpo!)OQT* Bsbm!Tfb!boe!Tvsspvoejoh!Sfhjpo Dpogmjdut!pwfs!ejtusjcvujpo!pg!xbufs!cfuxffo Ovdmfbs!qpxfsqmbou!dmptfe vqtusfbn!boe!epxotusfbn!dpvousjft/!Ijhi ps!voefs!dpotusvdujpo Ejwfstjpo!pg!sjwfst!gffejoh!uif!Bsbm!Tfb!mfe fdpopnjd!efqfoefodf!po!jssjhbufe!bhsjdvmuvsf!)sjdf up!fyqptvsf!pg!tfbcfe!up!pqfo!bjs-!bmmpxjoh boe!dpuupo*-!xjui!tufbejmz!efufsjpsbujoh!tpjmt/ Ovdmfbs!joevtusz!boe!sftfbsdi!tjuf!)djwjm!boe bjscpsof!usbotqpsu!pg!tbmut!boe!ifbwz!nfubmt njmjubsz*/!Gvfm!qspevdujpo!ps!sfdzdmjoh jo!b!qfsjnfufs!pg!711!.!911!ln/!Eftfsujgjdbujpo Njoft!jo!Lzshz{tubo-!Ubkjljtubo!boe!Tpvui!Lb{blitubo boe!tbmjoj{bujpo!pg!bsbcmf!mboe-!sftvmujoh!jo Qsftfodf!pg!qppsmz.nbjoubjofe!sbejpbdujwf!boe Sbejpbdujwf!xbtuf!tjuf!bttpdjbufe!xjui!vsbojvn uif!dpmmbqtf!pg!gjtifsjft!boe!bhsjdvmuvsf- difnjdbm!xbtuf!tjuft!jo!tfjtnjdbmmz!bdujwf!{pof- njoft!)bdujwf!ps!dmptfe*!boe!puifs!ib{bsepvt!xbtuf jnqpwfsjtinfou-!boe!pvuxbse!njhsbujpo/ mpdbufe!ofbs!ijhimz!qpqvmbufe!bsfbt!boe!jnqpsubou tupsbhf!qjmft!boe!qpoet tvsgbdf!xbufs Gfshibob!Wbmmfz Opsui.Fbtu!Lb{blitubo;!Utfmjozz.Qbwmpebs.Tfnfj. Ovdmfbs!xfbqpot!uftu!tjuf/!Mbshf!bsfbt!dpoubnjobufe Efotfmz!qpqvmbufe-!fuiojdbmmz!ejwfstf!sfhjpo Pltfnfo!boe!Blubv!po!uif!Dbtqjbo!Tfb!dpbtu xjui!sbejpbdujwf!gbmmpvu xjui!tfwfsfmz!efhsbefe!gpsftut!boe!tpjmt- mjnjufe!svmf!pg!mbx-!boe!xjeftqsfbe!usbggjd!jo Bsfb!dpoubnjobufe!xjui!sbejpbdujwf!gbmmpvu!gspn Svttjbo!sfhjpot!tqfdjbmj{fe!jo!d jwjm!boe!njmjubsz dpousbcboe!nfsdiboejtf/!Mbdl!pg!fofshz fyqfsjnfoubm!ovdmfbs!fyqmptjpot!boe!jobefrvbuf ovdmfbs!joevtusjft/!Gpsnfs!sfmbujpotijq!xjui!Dfousbm tpvsdft!boe!tvqqmz!boe!qpmmvufe!xbufst/ xbtuf!tupsbhf/!Ijhi!npsubmjuz!sbuf!dpnqbsfe!upQIJMJQQF!SFLBD Btjbo!ovdmfbs!gbdjmjujft/ Sfhjpo!voefs!uif!uisfbu!pg!dpmmbqtf!pg Dfousbm!Btjbo!bwfsbhf/ sbejpbdujwf!boe!difnjdbm!xbtuf!ubjmjoh!qpoet/

UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT!PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ-!PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/

NBQ!CZ!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

2ESULTS¬TO¬DATE¬SUGGEST¬THAT¬WE¬CAN¬IDENTIFY¬THREE¬MAIN¬GROUPS¬OF¬IS s EXISTING¬OR¬POTENTIAL¬POLLUTION¬FROM¬INDUSTRIAL¬FACILI SUES¬AS¬RELEVANT¬TO¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AND¬SECURITY¬ISSUES¬IN¬THE¬REGION TIES ¬HAZARDOUS¬AND¬RADIOACTIVE¬WASTE¬SITES¬AND¬ s ACCESS¬TO¬AND¬QUALITY¬OF¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES¬PRIMARILY¬WATER¬ s CROSS CUTTING¬ISSUES¬SUCH¬AS¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS ¬CLIMATE¬ AND¬ LAND ¬ BUT¬ ALSO¬ FOREST¬ AND¬ MORE¬ GENERALLY¬ BIODIVERSITY¬ CHANGE ¬ PUBIC¬ HEALTH ¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ GOVERNANCE ¬ RESOURCES PUBLIC¬PARTICIPATION¬AND¬ACCESS¬TO¬INFORMATION¬

Upqphsbqiz!boe!izesphsbqiz UBMBT pg!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz DIV Upluphvm t Sftfswpjs jo Obszo ub Dibulbm Zbohjcb{bs o LB[BLITUBO pv LZSHZ[TUBO Sftfswpjs m N ijl b sd bul ij Di G D fsh Ufsfl.Tbz KBMBM.BCBE ib Ubti.Lvnjs ob Dibsebsb spo Sftfswpjs hb N Ubtilfou o p b Nbjmvv.Tvv vo Bi Tvntbs ub V[CFLJTUBO jo t Obnbohbo t UBTILFOU jo OBNBOHBO Kbmbm.Bcbe ub Tzsebszb o BOEJKBO Bmnbmzl pv V{hfo N Boejkbo L jo m bs b b b.E T bn sz GFSHIBOB b Dbo bszb z s b bo s v i . L E h E s. s Ubcptibs z Lplboe f b T G Pti s Hvmjtubo z TPHE b Lbjsbllvn Gfshibob TZSEBSZB Livkboe Sftfswpjs Lbojcbebn PTI Lz{zm.Lzzb Fmfwbujpo jo!nfusft Kj{bli Jtgbsb Lbebnkbj 311 Jtusbwtibo Cbulfo Libjebslbo 411 CBULFO KJ[BLI Jtgbob pvoubjot 611 mbj N LZSHZ[TUBO B 2!111 bo Npvoubjot Uvslftu 2!611 UBKJLJTUBO v Lz{zmt 3!611 [fsbwtibo jot 5!111 [fsbwtibo Npvoub t 6!111 1 61 211261 311!ln Qbnjs Uif

UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!!BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT!PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ-!PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116

4HE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY

4HE¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬ IS¬ AN¬ INTERMOUNTAIN¬ DEPRESSION¬ %THNIC¬DIVISIONS¬WERE¬NOT¬THE¬PRIMARY¬MEANS¬OF¬DEMARCA IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬BETWEEN¬THE¬MOUNTAIN¬SYSTEMS¬OF¬THE¬ TION¬4HE¬¬REVOLUTION¬AND¬THE¬SUBSEQUENT¬FORMATION¬ 4IEN 3HAN¬IN¬THE¬NORTH¬AND¬THE¬'ISSAR !LAI¬IN¬THE¬SOUTH¬ OF¬THE¬5332¬LED¬TO¬CONSIDERABLE¬CHANGES¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ 4HE¬VALLEY¬IS¬APPROXIMATELY¬¬KM¬LONG¬AND¬UP¬TO¬¬ )N¬ ¬ NEW¬ ADMINISTRATIVE¬ BORDERS¬ WERE¬ INTRODUCED¬ KM¬WIDE ¬FORMING¬AN¬AREA¬OF¬ ¬SQ¬KM¬)TS¬POSITION¬ DIVIDING¬ THE¬ REGION ¬ CREATING¬ hNATIONALv¬ REPUBLICS¬ THAT¬ MAKES¬IT¬A¬SEPARATE¬GEOGRAPHIC¬ZONE¬ CONTAINED¬LARGE¬POPULATIONS¬OF¬NON TITULAR¬NATIONALITIES¬ 5ZBEKS¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬4AJIKS¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AND¬SO¬FORTH¬ !LTHOUGH¬THE¬VALLEY¬FORMS¬A¬SINGLE ¬CONTINUOUS¬GEOGRAPHIC¬ 7HEN¬THESE¬POPULATIONS¬EXISTED¬IN¬LARGE¬ENOUGH¬NUMBERS¬ UNIT ¬IT¬IS¬POLITICALLY¬VERY¬DIVIDED¬!T¬PRESENT¬IT¬ENCOM OUTSIDE¬THEIR¬OWN¬hNATIONALv¬REPUBLICS ¬THEY¬WON¬SOME¬ PASSES¬THREE¬PROVINCES¬OF¬+YRGYZSTAN¬n¬/SH¬AND¬*ALAL DEGREE¬ OF¬ AUTONOMY¬ 7ITH¬ THE¬ COLLAPSE¬ OF¬ THE¬ 3OVIET¬ !BAD ¬AND¬THE¬RECENTLY¬CREATED¬"ATKEN¬n¬THREE¬PROVINCES¬ 5NION ¬THE¬LARGELY¬ADMINISTRATIVE¬DIVIDING¬LINES¬BECAME¬ OF¬5ZBEKISTAN¬n¬!NDIJAN ¬&ERGHANA¬AND¬.AMANGAN¬IN¬THE¬ INTERNATIONAL¬BORDERS CENTRE¬n¬AND¬THE¬3OGD¬FORMERLY¬,ENINABAD ¬0ROVINCE¬IN¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬AT¬THE¬SOUTH WESTERN¬END¬OF¬THE¬6ALLEY 4HE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬FORMS¬THE¬BACKBONE¬OF¬AGRICULTURE¬ IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬3OME¬¬OF¬THE¬IRRIGATION¬AREAS¬OF¬THE¬ 7HEN¬THE¬2USSIAN¬%MPIRE¬ABSORBED¬THE¬VALLEY¬IN¬ ¬ 3YR $ARYA¬BASIN¬ARE¬LOCATED¬IN¬THE¬VALLEY IT¬ REMAINED¬ A¬ SINGLE¬ ADMINISTRATIVE¬ UNIT ¬ ITS¬ TERRITORY STAYING¬MUCH¬AS¬IT¬HAD¬BEEN¬UNDER¬THE¬+OKAND¬+HANATE 3OURCE¬'OUDIE ¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY %RHMNERTVSHYGIWQYGLKVEMRJVYMXWMREFYR HERGII\GIPPIRXKVETIWERHQIPSRW7SQER] -RXLIQSYRXEMRWVSYRH*IVKLEREEVII\GIPPIRX XLI]EVIXLEXMRXLIQIPSRWIEWSRMXMWRSX WYQQIVTEWXYVIW8LIVIERHRS[LIVIIPWIKVS[W GYWXSQEV]XSWIPPXLIQSYXEXXLIJMIPHW8LIVI XLIXEFEPKLYEXVII[MXLVIHFEVO8LI]QEOI EVIRSTIEVWFIXXIVXLERXLSWISJ%RHMNER WXEZIWERHFMVHGEKIWSJMX XLI]WGVETIMXMRXS EVVS[W-XMWERI\GIPPIRX[SSHERHFIGEYWISJ %RHMNERMWEVIEPP8YVOW IZIV]SRIMRXS[RSV MXWVEVMX]MWGEVVMIHXSHMWXERXTPEGIW8LIVIEVI FE^EV ORS[W 8YVOM 8LI WTIIGL SJ XLI TISTPI XYVUYSMWIERHMVSRQMRIWMRXLIWIQSYRXEMRW VIWIQFPIWXLIPMXIVEV]PERKYEKI

)N¬THE¬ANALYSIS¬BELOW¬WE¬WILL¬TRY¬TO¬ASSESS¬GENERAL¬PATTERNS¬ ON¬THESE¬RESOURCES¬IS¬CONSEQUENTLY¬A¬KEY¬POLITICAL ¬SECURITY¬ AND¬TRENDS¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬ENUMERATING¬AND¬PRIORITIZING¬SPECIlC¬ AND¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ISSUE LOCATIONS¬AND¬ISSUES¬THAT¬CAN¬BE¬CONSIDERED¬PROBLEM¬AREAS¬ OR¬@ENVIRONMENT SECURITY¬HOTSPOTS¬FROM¬AN¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ 4HE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬IS¬THE¬MOST¬POPULOUS¬AREA¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬ AND¬CONmICT RELATED¬PERSPECTIVE !SIA ¬WITH¬ABOUT¬¬OF¬THE¬TOTAL¬POPULATION¬!CCORDING¬TO¬ ESTIMATES¬IT¬IS¬HOME¬TO¬OVER¬¬MILLION¬PEOPLE¬4HE¬&ERGHANA¬ 7E¬WILL¬PAY¬PARTICULAR¬ATTENTION¬TO¬THE¬SUBNATIONAL¬LEVEL ¬ TERRITORIES¬ACCOUNT¬FOR¬¬OF¬+YRGYZSTANS¬POPULATION ¬¬ IN¬PARTICULAR¬VULNERABLE¬MARGINAL¬LAND¬SUCH¬AS¬ARID¬PLAINS ¬ OF¬4AJIKISTANS¬POPULATION¬AND¬¬OF¬5ZBEKISTANS¬INHABIT MOUNTAIN¬ AREAS¬ WITH¬ HIGHLAND LOWLAND¬ INTERACTIONS¬ AND¬ ANTS¬ALTHOUGH¬5ZBEK¬TERRITORY¬ONLY¬ACCOUNTS¬FOR¬¬OF¬THE¬ TRANSNATIONAL¬RIVER¬BASINS TOTAL¬AREA ¬)N¬ABSOLUTE¬TERMS ¬OVER¬¬MILLION¬5ZBEK ¬¬MILLION¬ +YRGYZ ¬AND¬¬MILLION¬4AJIK¬INHABIT¬THE¬VALLEY 0OPULATION¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY 0OPULATION¬DENSITY¬IS¬EXTREMELY¬HIGH¬IN¬THE¬5ZBEK¬PART¬OF¬ 'IVEN¬THE¬IMPORTANCE¬OF¬AGRICULTURE¬FOR¬THE¬WHOLE¬&ERGHANA¬ THE¬VALLEY¬ ¬PERSONS¬PER¬SQ¬KM ¬COMPARED¬TO¬THE¬ BASIN ¬ NATURAL¬ RESOURCES¬ SUCH¬ AS¬ LAND¬ AND¬ WATER¬ HAVE¬ 4AJIK¬¬ PER¬ SQ¬ KM ¬ OR¬ +YRGYZ¬ PARTS¬ ¬ PER¬ SQ¬ KM ¬ HISTORICALLY¬BEEN¬AMONG¬THE¬MOST¬IMPORTANT¬FACTORS¬IN¬THE¬ (IGH¬POPULATION¬DENSITIES¬INCREASE¬THE¬RISK¬OF¬DEPLETION¬OF¬ REGIONS¬DEVELOPMENT¬4HE¬SIZE¬OF¬THE¬POPULATION¬DEPENDING¬ NATURAL¬RESOURCES¬AND¬THUS¬OF¬COMPETITION¬AND¬EVEN¬CONmICT¬

Tiznlfou Qpqvmbujpo!ejtusjcvujpo jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz

Upluphvm

Upluphvm Sftfswpjs

Dijsdijl Lfscfo LZSHZ[TUBO LB[BLITUBO Bmb.Cvlb Ubtilfou Ubti.Lvnjs V[CFLJTUBO Lbtbotbz

Bohsfo Cb{bs.Lvshpo Divtu Obnbohbo Qtlfou Libmlbcbe Tv{bl Kbmbm.Bcbe Tzsebszb Bmnbmzl Boejkbo V{hfo Lbsb.Tvv Besbtnbo Lplboe Pti Hvmjtubo Nbshjmbo UBKJLJTUBO Bsbwbo Gfshibob Zbohjzbs Lbojcbebn Livkboe Opplbu Lz{zm.Lzzb Kj{bli Jtgbsb Tqjubnfo Lbebnkbj Cbulfo Libjebslbo

Jtusbwtibo Tpli Tibijnbsebo Jtgbob Wpsvli LZSHZ[TUBO Tbsz.Ubti

Ebsvu.Lvshpo

Tphejbob Bjoj

Ubkjlbcbe

Qpqvmbujpo!efotjuz 1 61 211261 311!ln Efotjmz!qpqvmbufe!bsfbt!)61!up!611!joibcjubout!qfs!ln3*

3 UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!!BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT Npefsbufmz!qpqvmbufe!bsfbt!)4!up!61!joibcjubout!qfs!ln * PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ-!PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ Tdbsdfmz!qpqvmbufe!bsfbt!)vq!up!4!joibcjubout!qfs!ln3* NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

%RHMNERLEWKSSHLYRXMRKERHJS[PMRK MXWTLIEW ERXWKVS[WSWYVTVMWMRKP]JEXXLEXVYQSYVLEWMX JSYVTISTPIGSYPHRSXJMRMWLSRIXLI][IVIIEXMRK [MXLMXWWXI[

FOR¬THEIR¬CONTROL¬4HE¬STRONG¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬OBSERVED¬IN¬ "ATKEN &ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬COUNTRIES¬MAKES¬THE¬SITUATION¬WORSE¬/#(!¬ ¬CITES¬AN¬ANNUAL¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬RATE¬OF¬ ¬ "ATKEN¬IS¬A¬REGION¬OF¬SPECIAL¬CONCERN¬ESTABLISHED¬IN¬ "ETWEEN¬¬AND¬¬THE¬POPULATION¬OF¬THE¬!RAL¬BASIN¬ ¬AFTER¬THE¬INCURSIONS¬OF¬THE¬)-5¬FROM¬THREE¬FORMER¬ STATES¬INCREASED¬BY¬¬AND¬IS¬EXPECTED¬TO¬INCREASE¬BY¬ DISTRICTS¬ OF¬ THE¬ /SH¬ OBLAST¬ )T¬ IS¬ AMONG¬ THE¬ POOREST¬ A¬FURTHER¬¬BY¬¬/(ARA ¬ REGIONS¬OF¬+YRGYZSTAN¬!SIAN¬$EVELOPMENT¬"ANK¬ESTI MATES¬THAT¬MORE¬THAN¬¬OF¬THE¬POPULATION¬LIVES¬BELOW¬ 2URAL¬OVERPOPULATION¬AND¬AN¬INCREASINGLY¬YOUNG¬POPULATION¬ THE¬POVERTY¬LINE¬ANNUAL¬INCOME¬IS¬¬OF¬THE¬NATIONAL¬ PUT¬ THE¬ WHOLE¬ REGION¬ UNDER¬ DEMOGRAPHIC¬ PRESSURE¬ NOW¬ AVERAGE ¬COMBINING¬THE¬HIGHEST¬RATIO¬OF¬UNEMPLOYMENT¬ AND¬IN¬THE¬FUTURE¬4HIS¬SITUATION¬IS¬AGGRAVATED¬BY¬THE¬LACK¬ AND¬ONE¬OF¬THE¬HIGHEST¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬RATES¬ ¬ OF¬JOBS¬AND¬ECONOMIC¬OPPORTUNITIES¬IN¬GENERAL ¬ESPECIALLY¬ )T¬HAS¬A¬COMPLEX¬POLITICAL¬GEOGRAPHY¬WITH¬NUMEROUS¬ IN¬MARGINALIZED¬AREAS BORDER¬ CROSSINGS¬ 4HREE¬ BIG¬ ENCLAVES¬ ARE¬ LOCATED¬ IN¬ "ATKEN¬ 3OKH¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ 6ORUKH¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬AND¬ !T¬THE¬SAME¬TIME ¬COUNTRIES¬LIKE¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ARE¬UNDERGOING¬A¬ 3HAHIMARDAN¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ 4RANSPORT¬OF¬ GOODS¬ AND¬ PROCESS¬IN¬WHICH¬ONLY¬THE¬MAIN¬URBAN¬AREAS¬AND¬MARGINALIZED¬AR PERSONS¬DEPENDS¬ON¬THE¬POLITICAL¬CLIMATE¬AND¬RELATIONS¬ EAS¬ARE¬REGISTERING¬SUBSTANTIAL¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬"ATKEN¬ ¬ AT¬THE¬BORDER¬)N¬VIEW¬OF¬THESE¬CHARACTERISTICS¬THE¬)N /SH¬ ¬"ISHKEK¬¬IN¬ ¬5.$0¬ ¬)NTERESTINGLY ¬ TERNATIONAL¬#RISIS¬'ROUP¬DElNED¬THE¬"ATKEN¬PROVINCE¬ THE¬SHARE¬OF¬RURAL¬POPULATION¬GREW¬HERE¬TO¬¬IN¬¬4HIS¬ AS¬AN¬hINCUBATOR¬OF¬CONmICTv¬IN¬ PROBABLY¬REmECTS¬THE¬INTERNAL¬MIGRATION¬PROCESSES¬AFFECTING¬THE¬ LEAST¬DEVELOPED¬AREAS ¬ESPECIALLY¬THE¬SMALL¬TOWNS¬WHERE¬THE¬ VIABILITY¬OF¬WHOLE¬REGIONS¬DEPENDED¬ON¬SINGLE¬ENTERPRISES AND¬EXTRACTION¬OF¬OIL¬AND¬GAS¬*ALAL !BAD¬IS¬BECOMING¬AN¬ IMPORTANT¬INDUSTRIAL¬CENTRE ¬WHEREAS¬/SH¬IS¬FACING¬INDUSTRIAL¬ 4HE¬/SH¬AND¬*ALAL !BAD¬PROVINCES¬ARE¬MAJOR¬CENTRES¬FOR¬ DECLINE ¬THOUGH¬IT¬IS¬STILL¬A¬KEY¬STAGING¬POST¬ON¬THE¬TRANSPORT¬ COTTON¬PRODUCTION¬AND¬PROCESSING ¬HYDRO ELECTRICAL¬POWER¬ ROUTES¬FROM¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬TO¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬#HINA

Qpqvmbujpo!efotjuz!jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz!qspwjodft

Joibcjubout!qfs!ln3 vq!up!61 61!up!211 211!up!361 361!up!661

LB[BLITUBO KBMBMBCBE UBTILFOU OBNBOHBO BOEJKBO LZSHZ[TUBO TPHE GFSHIBOB V[CFLJTUBO PTI

CBULFO

DIJOB Tpvsdft;!Obujpobm!dfotvt!boe!qpqvmbujpo!tubujtujdt UBKJLJTUBO

NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY 8LI%RHMNERXSVVIRXKSIWXS%RHMNEREJXIVLEZMRK XVEZIVWIHXLIWYFYVFWSJ3WL3VGLEVHWPMIEPSRK FSXLMXWFEROW EPPXLI3WLKEVHIRWSZIVPSSOMX 8LIMVZMSPIXWEVIZIV]JMRI XLI]LEZIVYRRMRK [EXIVWERHMRWTVMRKEVIQSWXFIEYXMJYP[MXL XLIFPSWWSQMRKSJQER]XYPMTWERHVSWIW

.ATURAL¬RESOURCES¬LAND¬AND¬BIODIVERSITY MENTIONED¬BEFORE ¬SCOPE¬FOR¬lNDING¬ALTERNATIVE¬SOURCES¬OF¬ INCOME¬BY¬MIGRATING¬TO¬OTHER¬REGIONS¬AT¬VARYING¬DISTANCES¬ !S¬WE¬HAVE¬ALREADY¬SEEN ¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬HAS¬VERY¬HIGH¬ FROM¬HOME¬HAS¬ACTED¬AS¬A¬KEY¬SAFETY¬VALVE¬FOR¬THE¬WHOLE¬ POPULATION¬DENSITIES¬FOR¬GEOGRAPHIC¬AND¬HISTORICAL¬REASONS¬ REGION¬(OWEVER¬IT¬IS¬INCREASINGLY¬APPARENT¬THAT¬LOCAL¬PEO /NE¬ OF¬ THE¬ lRST¬ QUESTIONS¬ WHEN¬ DEALING¬ WITH¬ LAND¬ MUST¬ PLE¬ ARE¬ LOSING¬ THE¬ BATTLE¬ AGAINST¬ DETERIORATING¬ ECONOMIC¬ CONSEQUENTLY¬BE¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬ITS¬AVAILABILITY¬ CONDITIONS¬AND¬ARE¬VOICING¬THEIR¬DISCONTENT¬MORE¬OPENLY¬ )N¬+YRGYZSTAN¬IN¬¬THIS¬CULMINATED¬IN¬CIVIL¬UNREST¬AND¬ (IGH¬ DEMOGRAPHIC¬ PRESSURE¬ ON¬ LIMITED¬ LAND¬ RESOURCES¬ POLITICAL¬CHANGES¬STARTING¬IN¬/SH¬AND¬*ALAL !BAD ¬TWO¬MAJOR¬ COINCIDES¬ WITH¬ A¬ LACK¬ OF¬ JOBS¬ AND¬ ECONOMIC¬ PROSPECTS¬ CITIES¬IN¬THE¬+YRGYZ¬PART¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY n¬ESPECIALLY¬IN¬MARGINALIZED¬AREAS¬BUT¬INCREASINGLY¬IN¬THE¬ IRRIGATED¬ AREAS¬ OF¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬ TOO¬ DUE¬ TO¬ THE¬ PROBLEMS¬ 4HE¬/SH¬AND¬*ALAL !BAD¬PROVINCES¬AND¬THE¬SURROUNDING¬HILLS¬ AFFECTING¬THE¬5ZBEK¬COTTON¬SECTOR ¬4HESE¬FACTORS¬ARE¬TRIG AND¬MOUNTAINS¬ARE¬CENTRES¬OF¬LOCAL¬MIGRATION¬4HE¬MOUNTAIN¬ GERING¬POPULATION¬MOVEMENTS¬TO¬THE¬MAIN¬URBAN¬CENTRES¬ SLOPES¬OF¬THE¬"ATKEN¬PROVINCE¬ARE¬ATTRACTING¬MIGRANTS¬FROM¬ AND¬TO¬RELATIVELY¬LESS¬POPULATED¬RURAL¬AREAS¬IN¬THE¬REGION¬!S¬ NEIGHBOURING¬4AJIKISTAN¬

Mboe!jttvft!jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz

ot ubj vo Upluphvm Np Sftfswpjs Obszo bm Dibulbm bul LB[BLITUBO Sftfswpjs Di ijl sd LZSHZ[TUBO ij D Nbjmvv.Tvv Dibsebsb po Sftfswpjs bs oh Ubtilfou b Bi Obnbohbo Bmnbmzl V[CFLJTUBO Kbmbm.Bcbe ot Tzsebszb ubj vo Boejkbo T p z N L s zb b . jo s sb E b .E n E bszb b sb s. s v z Pti z Ubcptibs L T Hvmjtubo b Gfshibob

Livkboe Lbojcbebn Cflbcbe

Kj{bli Libjebslbo Lbebnkbj

Cbulfo t oubjo Npv mbj zmtv B Lz{ Bmbj!!Wbmmfz [fsbwtibo [fsbwtibo Npvoubjot t Qbnjs Bo{pc UBKJLJTUBO Uif

Mboe!vtf Mboe!efhsbebujpo Mboe!ejtqvuft Xbmovu!gpsftu Efgpsftubujpo!boe!pwfshsb{joh Qbtuvsf!boe!gpsftu!vtf Usbotcpvoebsz!bsfbt Fwfshsffo!gpsftu!boe!puifs!uzqf!pg!gpsftu Tbmjoj{bujpo!pg!bhsjdvmuvsbm!tpjmt Gpsujgjfe!cpsefst Mbdl!pg!mboe!bwbjmbcjmjuz!boe Jssjhbufe!dspqmboe!boe!hbsefot Qpmmvujpo!pg!tpjmt!cz!ib{bsepvt!tvctubodft qsfttvsf!po!sftpvsdft Qsfttvsf!po!npvoubjo!tmpqft;!ofx!bhsjdvmuvsf Mbdl!pg!svmf!pg!mbx Sbjogfe!dspqmboet!boe!qbtuvsft efwfmpqnfou!boe!sfdfou!ivnbo!pddvqbujpo gps!mboe!buusjcvujpo

UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!!BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ-!PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ 1 61 211261 311!ln NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

3WLLEWEJMRIGPMQEXIEREFYRHERGISJVYRRMRK [EXIVWERHEQSWXFIEYXMJYPWTVMRKWIEWSR1ER] XVEHMXMSRWLEZIXLIMVVMWIMRMXWI\GIPPIRGMIW

%NCLAVES¬ AND¬ BORDER¬ AREAS¬ ARE¬ CONSEQUENTLY¬ AREAS¬ OF¬ 3IMILAR¬PROBLEMS¬ALSO¬AFFECT¬PASTURE¬IN¬THE¬MOUNTAIN¬AREAS¬ CONCERN¬ REGARDING¬ LAND RELATED¬ TENSIONS¬ 4HE¬ COMPLEX ¬ OF¬ +ERBEN¬ *ALAL !BAD¬ PROVINCE ¬ +YRGYZSTAN ¬ $ISPUTES¬ PROBLEMATIC¬ DEMARCATION¬ OF¬ BORDERS¬ BETWEEN¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬ CAUSED¬BY¬BADLY¬DElNED¬REGULATIONS¬FOR¬THE¬USE¬OF¬PASTURE¬ AND¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ FURTHER¬ CONFUSES¬ THE¬ ATTRIBUTION¬ OF¬ LAND¬ IN¬BORDER¬AREAS¬OR¬SIMPLY¬BY¬COMPETITION¬BETWEEN¬DIFFERENT¬ 4HE¬BORDER¬REGION¬AROUND¬)SFARA¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬THE¬3UZAK¬ LOCAL¬GROUPS¬ARE¬FREQUENT¬ALONG¬THE¬BORDERS¬BETWEEN¬+YR DISTRICT¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ARE¬TYPICAL¬OF¬THIS¬SITUATION¬)N¬)SFARA¬ GYZSTAN¬WHERE¬MOST¬OF¬THE¬PASTURE¬IS¬LOCATED ¬5ZBEKISTAN¬ MORE¬PRECISELY¬IN¬THE¬+OK 4ASH¬n¬"ATKEN¬PROVINCE¬ ¬AND¬ AND¬4AJIKISTAN 3HORSU ¬NEAR¬)SFARA ¬THE¬SITUATION¬HAS¬ESCALATED¬TO¬OPEN¬ CONmICT¬BETWEEN¬ETHNIC¬+YRGYZ¬AND¬4AJIKS¬!¬SIMILAR¬SITUATION¬ 4HE¬TWO¬LAND¬CATEGORIES¬n¬FOREST¬ESPECIALLY¬WALNUT¬FORESTS ¬ HAS¬ARISEN¬IN¬THE¬!RKA¬AND¬+ISTAKUZ¬REGION¬SEE¬ALSO¬SECTION¬ AND¬PASTURE¬n¬SEEM¬TO¬DISPLAY¬MANY¬OF¬THE¬REQUISITES¬FOR¬ENVI ON¬WATER ¬WHERE¬4AJIKS¬HAVE¬ACQUIRED¬LAND¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬ RONMENTALLY¬INDUCED¬CONmICTS¬LEADING¬TO¬VIOLENCE¬4HE¬INHAB AFTER¬ RISING¬ GROUNDWATER¬ mOODED¬ THEIR¬ OWN¬ LAND¬ +YRGYZ¬ ITANTS¬OF¬SUCH¬AREAS¬DEPEND¬TO¬A¬LARGE¬EXTENT¬ON¬RESOURCES¬ OFlCIALS¬OFTEN¬EXPRESSED¬CONCERN¬ABOUT¬OVERPOPULATION¬OF¬ UNDER¬PRESSURE¬FROM¬RISING¬POPULATION¬4HE¬CONSEQUENCES¬ PARTS¬OF¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AND¬4AJIKISTAN¬BORDERING¬ON¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬ OF¬LOCAL¬OVERPOPULATION¬SUCH¬AS¬LOWER¬PER¬CAPITA¬AVAILABILITY¬ AND¬THE¬CORRESPONDING¬PRESSURE¬PLACED¬ON¬ITS¬OWN¬LAND¬ OF¬PRODUCTIVE¬AGRICULTURAL¬LAND¬AND¬FURTHER¬IMPOVERISHMENT¬ 4HERE¬IS¬PARTICULAR¬CONCERN¬ABOUT¬THE¬SITUATION¬AROUND¬THE¬ OF¬UPLAND¬AREAS¬HAVE¬AN¬IMMEDIATE¬NEGATIVE¬IMPACT¬ON¬THEIR¬ +AIRAKKUM¬RESERVOIR¬WHERE¬PRESSURE¬ON¬LAND¬IS¬INCREASING¬ LIVELIHOODS¬)N¬SUCH¬A¬CONTEXT¬THE¬MECHANISMS¬FOR¬REGULATING¬ SEE¬NEXT¬SECTION¬FOR¬DETAILS AND¬PREVENTING¬THE¬CONmICTS¬ARE¬OF¬VITAL¬IMPORTANCE¬ ¬ ,AND¬MINES¬EXIST¬ALONG¬5ZBEK¬BORDERS ¬AND¬ARE¬CONSIDERED¬ ,IMITED¬LAND¬AVAILABILITY¬HAS¬ANOTHER¬IMPACT¬BECAUSE¬OF¬ NECESSARY¬BY¬THE¬GOVERNMENT¬OF¬5ZBEKISTAN¬FOR¬NATIONAL¬ POPULATION¬ PRESSURE¬ AND¬ SCARCE¬ RESOURCES¬ALL¬ AVAILABLE¬ SECURITY¬)N¬SOME¬CASES¬MINED¬AREAS¬ARE¬MARKED¬BY¬SIGNS ¬ LAND¬IS¬USED¬FOR¬AGRICULTURAL¬PURPOSES ¬INCLUDING¬AREAS¬RICH¬ BUT¬THE¬OVERALL¬LACK¬OF¬INFORMATION¬ABOUT¬THEIR¬LOCATION ¬FENC IN¬ ENDEMIC¬ AND¬ ENDANGERED¬ SPECIES¬ -OREOVER¬ A¬ RANGE¬ ING¬OR¬VISIBLE¬MARKING¬ON¬THE¬GROUND¬HAVE¬LEAD¬TO¬A¬NUMBER¬ OF¬FACTORS¬n¬PIPELINES ¬ROADS¬AND¬ELECTRICAL¬POWER¬LINES¬IN¬ OF¬HUMAN¬AND¬ANIMAL¬FATALITIES¬OR¬SEVERE¬INJURIES AREAS¬OF¬FRAGILE¬BIODIVERSITY ¬INTENSIVE¬USE¬OF¬RECREATIONAL¬ RESOURCES¬INCLUDING¬HUNTING¬AND¬MOUNTAINEERING ¬MINING¬ (IGHLANDS¬ARE¬USUALLY¬MARGINAL¬AREAS¬WITH¬LIMITED¬CAPACITY¬ AND¬PROCESSING¬INDUSTRIES¬n¬CONTRIBUTE¬TO¬REDUCING¬BIODI FOR¬ SUPPORTING¬ A¬ LARGE¬ POPULATION¬ LIVING¬ ON¬ AGRICULTURE¬ VERSITY¬IN¬THE¬REGION¬ ,OCAL¬MIGRATION¬TO¬THESE¬AREAS¬ADDS¬TO¬PRESSURE¬ON¬LIMITED¬ RESOURCES¬IN¬PLACES¬ALREADY¬HAMPERED¬BY¬HIGH¬BIRTH¬RATES¬ &INALLY ¬ SINCE¬ INDEPENDENCE ¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIAN¬ STATES¬ HAVE¬ 5NDER¬SUCH¬CONDITIONS¬INCREASING¬NUMBERS¬OF¬PEOPLE¬MUST¬ INTRODUCED¬AGRICULTURAL¬AND¬LAND¬REFORMS¬DESIGNED¬TO¬BOOST¬ COMPETE¬FOR¬DWINDLING¬RESOURCES ¬WHICH¬IN¬TURN¬OFTEN¬MEANS¬ OUTPUT¬ AND¬ DIVERSIFY¬ AGRICULTURAL¬ PRODUCTION¬ )N¬ PRACTICE¬ INCREASING¬TENSION¬AND¬CONmICT¬FOR¬THEIR¬CONTROL¬ THE¬VARIOUS¬REFORM¬PROGRAMMES¬ALSO¬MEAN¬DIFFERENT¬LEGAL¬ REGIMES¬FOR¬ACCESSING¬LAND¬AND¬REGULATING¬WATER¬MANAGE !NOTHER¬EXAMPLE¬OF¬THIS¬TYPE¬OF¬PROBLEM¬IS¬DEFORESTATION¬ MENT¬AT¬A¬LOCAL¬LEVEL¬IN¬THE¬THREE¬BASIN¬STATES¬4HIS¬SITUATION¬ AND¬USE¬OF¬PASTURE¬)N¬THE¬4IEN 3HAN ¬!LAI¬AND¬0AMIR¬AREAS¬ FURTHER¬COMPLICATES¬PROBLEMS¬AT¬A¬SUB STATE¬LEVEL AND¬THE¬4URKESTAN¬MOUNTAIN¬RANGES¬THE¬PROBLEM¬OF¬LAND¬ DEGRADATION¬IS¬PARTICULARLY¬ACUTE¬4HE¬NEED¬FOR¬TIMBER¬FOR¬ 0ROTECTED¬AREAS FUEL¬OR¬BUILDING¬LEADS¬TO¬DEFORESTATION¬AND¬HENCE¬LAND¬DEG RADATION¬4RANSBOUNDARY¬INCURSIONS¬FOR¬WOOD¬AND¬WILDLIFE¬ 0ROTECTED¬ AREAS ¬ ESTABLISHED¬ IN¬ REPRESENTATIVE¬ AND¬ AFFECT¬ALL¬THE¬THREE¬COUNTRIES UNIQUE¬ECOSYSTEMS ¬ONCE¬PROVED¬VERY¬EFFECTIVE¬FOR¬PRE SERVING¬AND¬MONITORING¬BIODIVERSITY¬2ECENTLY ¬HOWEVER ¬ &ORESTS¬ARE¬ALSO¬COMING¬UNDER¬PRESSURE¬IN¬THE¬BORDER¬AREAS¬ THE¬ INTEGRATED¬ NETWORK¬ OF¬ PROTECTED¬ AREAS¬ HAS¬ BEEN¬ AROUND¬)SFARA ¬IN¬THE¬6ORUKH¬ENCLAVE¬IN¬THE¬"ATKEN¬PROV SPLIT¬ INTO¬ FRAGMENTED¬ PATCHES¬ )TS¬ EFFECTIVENESS¬ HAS¬ INCE ¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬AND¬IN¬'ANTCHI ¬IN¬THE¬3OGD¬PROVINCE¬OF¬ SIGNIlCANTLY¬ DECREASED¬ 0OLITICAL¬ BORDERS¬ TURN¬ OUT¬ TO¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬WHERE¬THE¬INHABITANTS¬OF¬THE¬ENCLAVES¬ARE¬OFTEN¬ BE¬LIMITING¬FACTORS¬FOR¬NATURAL¬HABITATS¬3OME¬PROTECTED¬ ACCUSED¬BY¬THEIR¬NEIGHBOURS¬OF¬ILLEGAL¬LOGGING¬(ERE¬AGAIN¬ AREAS¬HAVE¬BEEN¬DEVASTATED¬BY¬ARMED¬CONmICT¬2OMIT ¬IN¬ THESE¬ BORDER¬ AREAS¬ ARE¬ SOME¬ OF¬ THE¬ MAIN¬ HOTSPOTS¬ FOR¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬/THERS¬HAVE¬FAILED¬TO¬PRESERVE¬THEIR¬BIODIVER ENVIRONMENTALLY¬RELATED¬TENSION¬&URTHERMORE¬THERE¬IS¬AN¬ SITY¬BECAUSE¬OF¬INCREASING¬FRAGMENTATION¬OF¬ECOSYSTEMS¬ ETHNIC¬DIMENSION¬TO¬SUCH¬TENSION ¬DISPUTES¬USUALLY¬INVOLVING¬ AND¬OBSTACLES¬IN¬THE¬PATH¬OF¬ANIMAL¬MIGRATION GROUPS¬FROM¬DIFFERENT¬ETHNIC¬COMMUNITIES¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY %ZIV]FIEYXMJYPWXSRI[MXL[EZ]VIHERH[LMXI TEXXIVRW[EWJSYRHMRXLI&EVE/SLMRg9QEV 7LEMOL1MV^EhWPEXXIVHE]W/RMJILERHPIW GPEWTWJSVFIPXWERHQER]SXLIVXLMRKWEVI QEHIJVSQMX*SVGPMQEXIERHJSVTPIEWERXRIWW RSXS[RWLMTMREPP*EVKLEREIUYEPW3WL

%.63%#¬#!3%¬345$9 $ISAPPEARANCE¬OF¬WALNUT¬FORESTS¬IN¬THE¬*ALAL !BAD¬0ROVINCE ¬+YRGYZSTAN

/NE¬PART¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬AFFECTED¬BY¬DEFORESTATION¬IS¬ 5257 4649 THE¬PROVINCE¬OF¬*ALAL !BAD ¬IN¬SOUTH¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬WHERE¬THE¬ 4699 GFSHIBOB NPVOUBJOT Bsqbuvl MAIN¬WALNUT¬FORESTS¬ARE¬LOCATED ¬COVERING¬ ¬HECTARES 5538

49:3 4HE¬WALNUT¬FORESTS¬ARE¬REMNANTS¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAS¬4ERTIARY¬ERA¬ Bstubocbq Zbchbdij SUBTROPICAL¬FORESTS¬4HEY¬ARE¬LOCATED¬PRIMARILY¬ON¬THE¬NORTH Ekbjufsfl Lz{zmtv ERN¬SLOPES¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬AND¬#HATKAL¬RANGES¬OF¬THE¬4IEN¬ V{cfl.Hbwb Bwhbebmb Lzoezcvmbl 3HAN ¬AND¬ON¬THE¬SOUTHERN¬SLOPES¬OF¬THE¬'ISSAR¬AND¬$ARVAZ¬ Lflupoev Dipo.Psupi Lbsbbmnb RANGES¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬4HE¬FORESTS¬ARE¬A¬REMARKABLE¬COMBINA Lbsblpm Lzshz{.Hbwb Tbsz.Cvmbl TION¬OF¬WALNUT¬*UGLANS¬REGIA ¬REACHING¬¬METRES¬IN¬HEIGHT ¬ Blubvl Lbsbnbsu Bsibohfmtlpf AND¬FRUIT¬TREES¬SUCH¬AS¬WILD¬APPLE¬-ALUS ¬AND¬PRUNE¬0RUNUS ¬ Tbsjcvmbl +REVER¬AND¬AL¬ Enjusfwlb Ftljevscvm Lz{zlpm Bmnbmz Zbhmj.Bzblb Cb{bs.Lpshpo Lz{zmtbohjs Lph.Zbhobl )T¬IS¬ESTIMATED¬THAT¬IN¬*ALAL !BAD¬0ROVINCE¬THERE¬ARE¬ALREADY¬ Blnbo Cbhjti SOME¬ ¬ HOUSEHOLDS¬ IN¬ THE¬ WOODED¬ AREA¬ AND¬ THEIR¬ Blcbtij Jsjtv NUMBER¬IS¬INCREASING¬STEADILY¬-ANY¬VILLAGES¬ARE¬OVERPOPU Ubti.Cvmbl LATED Kbmbm.Bcbe

1 21 31!ln Fmfwbujpo!jo!nfusft )N¬$ECEMBER¬ ¬AN¬%.63%#¬lELD¬ASSESSMENT¬MISSION¬ 411 VISITED¬THE¬!RSTANBOB¬COMMUNITY¬THE¬POPULATION¬OF¬WHICH¬HAS¬ Xbmovu!gpsftut!jo!uif!Kbmbm. 611 Bcbe!qspwjodf!)Lzshz{tubo* INCREASED¬THREE FOLD¬OVER¬THE¬LAST¬¬YEARS¬3MALL¬COLLECTIVE¬ 2!111 FARMS¬SUCH¬AS¬!CHI¬HAVE¬TO¬SUSTAIN¬NUMBERS¬OF¬HOUSEHOLDS¬ Kbmbm.Bcbu!xbmovu!gpsftut!)Kvhmbot 2!611 EXCEEDING¬AVAILABLE¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES¬!CHI¬FORESTRY¬IS¬HOME¬ sfhjb*!jt!dvssfoumz!voefs!!sjtl!pg nbonbef!ebnbhf!evf!up!xppe 3!111 TO¬ ¬PEOPLE¬IN¬ ¬HOUSEHOLDS¬/UT¬OF¬ ¬HECTARE¬ gvfm!dvuujoh-!dbuumf!hsb{joh!boe!mboe 4111 TOTAL¬AREA ¬¬HECTARES¬ARE¬UNDER¬WALNUT¬FORESTS ¬)NCREASING¬ dvmujwbujpo POPULATION¬ PRESSURE¬ COMBINED¬ WITH¬ THE¬ LACK¬ OF¬ ACCESS¬ TO¬ Bqqspyjnbuf!mjnjut!pg!xbmovu!gpsftut ALTERNATIVE¬SOURCES¬OF¬ENERGY¬DRIVE¬VILLAGERS¬TO¬OVEREXPLOIT¬ THE¬ WALNUT¬ FORESTS¬ WOOD¬ STOCKS¬ ,ONG¬ COLD¬ WINTERS¬ FORCE¬ Jodsfbtf!jo!gpsftu!fyqmpjubujpo!cz!ivnbot

PEOPLE¬TO¬CUT¬DOWN¬TREES¬FOR¬FUEL¬0OVERTY¬IS¬ANOTHER¬IMPORTANT¬ UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!BHFODJFT DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT!PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ- FORCE¬DRIVING¬DEFORESTATION ¬WITH¬PEOPLE¬CUTTING¬DOWN¬TREES¬ PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ AND¬COLLECTING¬PLANT¬PRODUCE¬FOR¬SALE¬&INALLY¬UNSUSTAINABLE¬ NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 AGRICULTURAL¬PRACTICES¬CAUSE¬SEVERE¬DAMAGE¬TO¬WALNUT¬FORESTS¬ 'RAZING¬ANIMALS¬TRAMPLE¬DOWN¬YOUNG¬TREES¬!CHI¬POPULATION¬ $EFORESTATION¬IN¬TURN¬CONTRIBUTES¬TO¬GREATER¬VULNER OWNS¬OVER¬ ¬HEADS¬OF¬CATTLE ¬AND¬FARMERS¬CLEAR¬FOREST¬ ABILITY¬TO¬NATURAL¬HAZARDS¬SUCH¬AS¬EROSION ¬MUDmOWS¬ TO¬PLANT¬CROPS AND¬LANDSLIDES

3OURCE¬%.63%#¬lELD¬VISITS¬ ¬.ATURAL¬2ESOURCES¬4RACK

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¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

!¬VITAL¬NATURAL¬RESOURCE¬WATER CAPITA¬¬ARE¬OF¬THE¬ORDER¬OF¬¬CUBIC¬METRES¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬ AND¬ ¬ CUBIC¬ METRES¬ IN¬ 4URKMENISTAN¬4HE¬ SITUATION¬ IS¬ #ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬CONTEXT¬OF¬WATER¬MANAGEMENT CLEARLY¬CRITICAL¬)N¬CONTRAST¬THE¬lGURES¬FOR¬THE¬OTHER¬COUN TRIES¬ARE¬ ¬CUBIC¬METRES¬IN¬+AZAKHSTAN ¬ ¬CUBIC¬ !GRICULTURE¬IS¬A¬MAINSTAY¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAS¬ECONOMY¬7ITH¬ METRES¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN ¬AND¬ ¬CUBIC¬METRES¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ THE¬ECONOMIC¬CRISIS¬FOLLOWING¬INDEPENDENCE¬IT¬HAS¬BECOME¬ ROUNDED UP¬DATA¬FROM¬72) ¬¬ ¬(ENCE ¬THE¬WATER¬ EVEN¬MORE¬IMPORTANT¬!GRICULTURE¬BEING¬ALMOST¬ENTIRELY¬DE CRISIS¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬IS¬CURRENTLY¬NOT¬A¬CRISIS¬OF¬QUANTITY¬ PENDENT¬ON¬IRRIGATION ¬ACCESS¬TO¬WATER¬IS¬OF¬STRATEGIC¬IMPOR BUT¬OF¬DISTRIBUTION¬AND¬USE¬!LTHOUGH¬!FGHANISTAN ¬4AJIKISTAN¬ TANCE¬4WO¬MAJOR¬TRIBUTARIES¬n¬THE¬.ARYN¬AND¬THE¬+ARA $ARYA¬ AND¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ARE¬THE¬COUNTRIES¬FURTHEST¬UPSTREAM¬IN¬THE¬ n¬BOTH¬ORIGINATING¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬JOIN¬TO¬FORM¬THE¬3YR $ARYA ¬ !RAL¬3EA¬BASIN ¬WATER¬WITHDRAWALS¬FOR¬THESE¬THREE¬COUNTRIES¬ ONE¬OF¬THE¬TWO¬LARGE¬RIVERS¬SERVING¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬BASIN¬AND¬ TOTALS¬¬4HE¬PICTURE¬FOR¬DOWNSTREAM¬STATES¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬ THE¬KEY¬WATER¬RESOURCE¬FOR¬THE¬WHOLE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬7ITH¬ +AZAKHSTAN¬ AND¬ 4URKMENISTAN ¬IS¬ EXACTLY¬ THE¬ OPPOSITE¬ A¬LENGTH¬OF¬ ¬KM¬IT¬ORIGINATES¬IN¬THE¬4IEN¬3HAN¬MOUNTAIN¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬WITHDRAWS¬¬OF¬THE¬TOTAL ¬FOLLOWED¬BY¬4URK OF¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬PASSES¬THROUGH¬4AJIKISTAN ¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AND¬ MENISTAN¬ ¬AND¬+AZAKHSTAN¬ ¬ 3OUTH¬+AZAKHSTAN¬AND¬mOWS¬INTO¬THE¬!RAL 4HE¬ CHART¬ SHOWS¬ THAT¬ WATER¬ CONSUMPTION¬ IS¬ CLEARLY¬ NOT¬ )N¬PRINCIPLE¬THE¬MOUNTAINS¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ARE¬RICH¬IN¬WATER¬ BALANCED¬7HEREAS¬IRRIGATION¬WAS¬PRACTISED¬FOR¬OVER¬ ¬ #OUNTRIES¬ MAY¬ BE¬ CONSIDERED¬ TO¬ BE¬ SUFFERING¬ FROM¬ HIGH¬ YEARS¬IN¬THE¬RIVER¬BASIN ¬IT¬WAS¬ONLY¬UNDER¬3OVIET¬RULE¬THAT¬ WATER SCARCITY¬WHEN¬THEIR¬ANNUAL¬PER¬CAPITA¬WATER¬SUPPLY¬IS¬ WATER¬WAS¬DIVERTED¬FROM¬THE¬RIVER¬ON¬A¬LARGE¬SCALE¬THANKS¬TO¬ LESS¬THAN¬ ¬CUBIC¬METRES¬/N¬THIS¬BASIS¬THE¬SITUATION¬IN¬ AN¬EXTENSIVE¬IRRIGATION¬INFRASTRUCTURE¬COMPRISING¬DIVERSION¬ #ENTRAL¬!SIA¬VARIES¬A¬GREAT¬DEAL¬BETWEEN¬UP¬AND¬DOWNSTREAM¬ AND¬STORAGE¬DAMS ¬CANALS ¬DISTRIBUTARIES¬AND¬PUMPING¬STA COUNTRIES ¬AND¬BETWEEN¬REGIONS¬INSIDE¬INDIVIDUAL¬COUNTRIES¬ TIONS ¬ENABLING¬IRRIGATED¬CULTIVATION¬OF¬COTTON ¬FODDER ¬WHEAT ¬ 4HE¬ANNUAL¬NATURAL¬INTERNAL¬RENEWABLE¬WATER¬RESOURCES¬PER¬ FRUIT¬AND¬VEGETABLES¬

4 Xbufs!xjuiesbxbm!boe!bwbjmbcjmjuz ln !qfs!zfbs jo!uif!Bsbm!Tfb!cbtjo 71

Gmpx!hfofsbujpo;!xbufs!bwbjmbcmf!jo!uif!dpvousz!gspn!sbjogbmm!boe!hmbdjfs!nfmu Xbufs!bctusbdujpo;!xjuiesbxbm!gspn!tvsgbdf!xbufs!tpvsdft!)sjwfst-!dbobmt!boe!mblft* 61 Nfusft 4!111 3!111 51 2!111 UBKJLJTUBO 611 311 V[CFLJTUBO 1 41 LZSHZ[TUBO

SVTTJB SVTTJB 31

UVSLNFOJTUBO

BSBM MBLF 21 TFB LB[BLITUBO CBMLIBTI

T zs. Eb szb 1

B DBTQJBO n TFB v .E b DIJOB szb JSBO 1311 511 711!ln Tpvsdf;!Ejbhoptujd!Sfqpsu!po!Xbufs BGHIBOJTUBO QBLJTUBO Sftpvsdft!jo!Dfousbm!Btjb-!JDXD!3111/

NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

4HE¬WITHDRAWAL¬OF¬WATER¬FOR¬IRRIGATED¬AGRICULTURE¬HAS¬CAUSED¬A¬ DOWNSTREAM¬USERS¬#ONSEQUENTLY¬THE¬BENElTS¬OF¬COOPERATION¬ SOCIAL¬AND¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CRISIS¬IN¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬BASIN¬"Y¬¬ ARE¬ HIGHLY¬ ASYMMETRICAL¬ AND¬ UNEVENLY¬ DISTRIBUTED¬ AMONG¬ THE¬LEVEL¬OF¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬HAD¬FALLEN¬BY¬ABOUT¬¬METRES ¬ITS¬ WATER¬USERS¬7EINTHAL ¬¬ ¬)N¬THE¬NEW¬SITUATION¬CREATED¬ SURFACE¬AREA¬HAD¬BEEN¬HALVED¬AND¬ITS¬VOLUME¬REDUCED¬BY¬TWO BY¬INDEPENDENCE¬AND¬THE¬LOSS¬OF¬-OSCOW¬AS¬AN¬EXTERNAL¬ THIRDS¬7EINTHAL ¬¬ ¬$RYING¬UP¬OF¬THE¬SEA¬HAS¬BEEN¬AC ENFORCER ¬INDIVIDUAL¬STATES¬COULD¬NO¬LONGER¬TRUST¬THE¬OTHERS¬TO¬ COMPANIED¬BY¬A¬WIDE¬RANGE¬OF¬OTHER¬ENVIRONMENTAL ¬ECONOMIC¬ CONTINUE¬COOPERATING¬ON¬WATER¬0REDICTABLY¬STATES¬ESPECIALLY¬ AND¬SOCIAL¬PROBLEMS¬IN¬THE¬BASIN¬4HE¬PROBLEMS¬PRECIPITATED¬BY¬ THOSE¬ DOWNSTREAM ¬ WHICH¬ ARE¬ ECONOMICALLY¬ AND¬ MILITARILY¬ THIS¬CRISIS¬HAVE¬AGGRAVATED¬THE¬SOCIAL¬AND¬ECONOMIC¬DIFlCULTIES¬ MORE¬POWERFUL¬THAN¬THE¬UPSTREAM¬ONES ¬WHILE¬FORMALLY¬AD CAUSED¬BY¬THE¬COLLAPSE¬OF¬THE¬3OVIET¬5NION¬ HERING¬TO¬PREVIOUSLY¬RECONlRMED¬AGREEMENTS¬CF¬DISCUSSION¬ IN¬ THE¬ BOX¬ ABOVE ¬ HAVE¬ CHOSEN¬ TO¬ ADOPT¬ BILATERAL¬ AD HOC¬ &OLLOWING¬THE¬BREAK UP¬OF¬THE¬3OVIET¬5NION¬THE¬INTERESTS¬OF¬ SOLUTIONS¬TO¬MITIGATE¬THE¬RECURRENT¬DISPUTES¬OVER¬WATER¬AND¬ UPSTREAM¬COUNTRIES¬AND¬REGIONS¬WITHIN¬THEM¬COLLIDED¬WITH¬ ENERGY¬INSTEAD¬OF¬NEGOTIATING¬A¬NEW¬MULTIPARTITE ¬MULTISECTORAL¬ THOSE¬OF¬THEIR¬DOWNSTREAM¬NEIGHBOURS¬)N¬THE¬COMPLEX¬SITU AGREEMENT¬SUITED¬TO¬THE¬NEW¬CIRCUMSTANCES¬SEE¬EXPLANATION¬ ATION¬INHERITED¬BY¬THE¬NEWLY¬CREATED¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬STATES ¬ OF¬THE¬PROCESS¬FACILITATED¬BY¬THE¬7ORLD¬"ANK¬BELOW ¬ ¬OF¬4URKMENISTANS¬WATER¬SUPPLY¬AND¬¬OF¬5ZBEKISTANS¬ ORIGINATE¬OUTSIDE¬THEIR¬BORDERS ¬AND¬THE¬USE¬OF¬WATER¬FOR¬IRRIGA 4HE¬PROBLEMS¬RELATED¬TO¬THE¬WATER ENERGY¬NEXUS¬ALONG¬THE¬ TION¬IMPINGES¬ON¬THE¬QUALITY¬AND¬QUANTITY¬OF¬WATER¬AVAILABLE¬TO¬ 3YR $ARYA¬HAVE¬ALREADY¬CAUSED¬SEVERAL¬INCIDENTS¬SINCE¬INDE

4HE¬WATER ENERGY¬NEXUS

)N¬ THE¬ S¬ DIVERSION¬ OF¬ WATER¬ FOR¬ IRRIGATION¬ FROM¬ THE¬ EXPENSIVE¬ HEATING¬ POWERED¬ BY¬ FOSSIL¬ FUEL¬ TO¬ ELECTRICAL¬ 3YR $ARYA¬ RIVER¬ WAS¬ SO¬ EXTENSIVE¬ ABOUT¬ ¬ BN¬ CUBIC¬ HEATING ¬ INCREASING¬ DEMAND¬ FOR¬ WINTER¬ ELECTRICITY¬ +YR METRES ¬THAT¬IN¬DRY¬YEARS¬WITH¬LOWER¬mOWS¬DEMAND¬FOR¬ GYZSTAN¬COULD¬NOT¬AFFORD¬TO¬IMPORT¬FOSSIL¬FUELS¬AND¬STARTED¬ IRRIGATION¬EXCEEDED¬THE¬TOTAL¬mOW¬IN¬THE¬RIVER¬4HIS¬LED¬TO¬ INCREASING¬ WINTER¬ DISCHARGES¬ OF¬ WATER¬ TO¬ MEET¬ WINTER¬ THE¬ CONSTRUCTION¬ OF¬ THE¬ MULTI YEAR¬ STORAGE¬ RESERVOIR¬ IN¬ POWER¬DEMANDS¬AND¬REDUCING¬SUMMER¬RELEASES¬TO¬STORE¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ON¬THE¬.ARYN¬RIVER ¬THE¬MAIN¬TRIBUTARY¬OF¬3YR WATER¬FOR¬THE¬FOLLOWING¬WINTER¬)N¬ ¬SUMMER¬RE $ARYA¬)T¬STORES¬WATER¬IN¬WET¬YEARS¬AND¬RELEASES¬IT¬DURING¬ LEASES¬DROPPED¬TO¬¬OF¬ANNUAL¬DISCHARGE¬AND¬WINTER¬ DRY¬YEARS¬TO¬FACILITATE¬IRRIGATED¬FARMING¬DOWNSTREAM¬4HIS¬ RELEASES¬INCREASED¬TO¬ RESERVOIR¬WAS¬ALSO¬lTTED¬WITH¬HYDROELECTRIC¬GENERATOR¬SETS¬ FOR¬PRODUCING¬ELECTRICITY¬WHEN¬WATER¬WAS¬BEING¬RELEASED¬ )N¬&EBRUARY¬ ¬IN¬AN¬EFFORT¬TO¬SOLVE¬THE¬PROBLEM¬OF¬THE¬ &OUR¬ MORE¬ RESERVOIRS¬ WITH¬ LIMITED¬ PONDAGE¬ WERE¬ BUILT¬ CONmICTING¬INTERNATIONAL ¬CLAIMS¬ON¬THE¬WATER ¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬ DOWNSTREAM ¬ALSO¬ON¬THE¬.ARYN¬RIVER ¬TO¬PRODUCE¬ELECTRIC STATES¬SIGNED¬AN¬AGREEMENT¬TO¬MAINTAIN¬AND¬ADHERE¬TO¬3O ITY¬USING¬THE¬WATER¬RELEASED¬FROM¬4OKTOGUL VIET ERA¬ARRANGEMENTS¬4HIS ¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬OTHER¬AGREEMENTS¬ FOR¬THE¬RELEASE¬OF¬WATER¬AND¬EXCHANGE¬OF¬ELECTRICITY¬AND¬FOS 5NDER¬PROTOCOL¬OF¬ ¬IN¬A¬NORMAL¬YEAR¬¬OF¬THE¬ SIL¬FUELS ¬PROVED¬INEFFECTIVE¬AND¬COULD¬NOT¬HALT¬THE¬4OKTOGUL¬ ANNUAL¬DISCHARGE¬FROM¬THE¬RESERVOIR¬WAS¬TO¬BE¬MADE¬IN¬ OPERATIONS¬INCREASING¬ FOCUS¬ ON¬ POWER¬ PRODUCTION¬ 4HE¬ SUMMER¬!PRIL 3EPTEMBER ¬AND¬DISCHARGES¬IN¬WINTER¬/C ISSUE¬OF¬COMPENSATING¬+YRGYZSTAN¬FOR¬WATER¬STORAGE¬SERV TOBER -ARCH ¬AT¬¬CUBIC¬METRES¬PER¬SECOND¬SHOULD¬NOT¬ ICES¬REMAINS¬OPEN¬-OREOVER ¬EVEN¬WHEN¬AGREED¬SUMMER¬ EXCEED¬THE¬REMAINING¬¬3URPLUS¬ELECTRICITY¬GENERATED¬ DISCHARGES¬ARE¬MADE ¬THE¬SUPPLY¬OF¬FOSSIL¬FUELS¬OFTEN¬FALLS¬ IN¬SUMMER¬WAS¬FED¬INTO¬THE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬POWER¬SYSTEM¬ SHORT¬OF¬AGREED¬QUANTITIES ¬FORCING¬+YRGYZSTAN¬TO¬INCREASE¬ FOR¬USE¬BY¬5ZBEK¬AND¬SOUTH¬+AZAKH¬REGIONS¬!S¬THE¬+YR WINTER¬ DISCHARGES¬ )N¬ WET¬ YEARS¬ DOWNSTREAM¬ STATES¬ DO¬ GYZ¬REGION¬LACKED¬ANY¬SIGNIlCANT¬FOSSIL¬FUEL¬RESOURCES ¬ NOT¬NEED¬THE¬AGREED¬VOLUMES¬OF¬SUMMER¬DISCHARGES¬AND¬ THEY¬WERE¬TRANSFERRED¬FROM¬THE¬5ZBEK¬AND¬+AZAKH¬REGIONS¬ THIS¬AFFECTS¬THE¬EXPORT¬OF¬ELECTRICITY¬AND¬THE¬COMPENSATING¬ TO¬ ENABLE¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ TO¬ MEET¬ ITS¬ WINTER¬ DEMAND¬ FOR¬ QUANTITIES¬OF¬FOSSIL¬FUEL¬TRANSFERS¬TO¬+YRGYZSTAN¬4HE¬LATTER¬ ELECTRICITY¬AND¬HEATING¬)NDEPENDENCE¬PUT¬THIS¬ARRANGE IS¬THUS¬EXPOSED¬TO¬A¬SERIOUS¬RISK¬IN¬TERMS¬OF¬TIMING¬FOR¬ MENT¬UNDER¬CONSIDERABLE¬STRAIN¬&OSSIL¬FUEL¬PRICES¬QUICKLY¬ MEETING¬ITS¬WINTER¬DEMAND¬FOR¬HEAT¬AND¬POWER ROSE¬TO¬WORLD¬PRICE¬LEVELS¬AND¬PAYMENTS¬WERE¬OFTEN¬DE MANDED¬IN¬HARD¬CURRENCY¬#USTOMERS¬SOON¬SWITCHED¬FROM 3OURCE¬AFTER¬7ORLD¬"ANK ¬ &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

PENDENCE¬)N¬ ¬ ¬¬AND¬ ¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ TENANCE¬OF¬THE¬PARTS¬OF¬THE¬SYSTEM¬THAT¬BENElT¬MORE¬THAN¬ WAS¬BLAMED¬FOR¬RELEASING¬TOO¬MUCH¬WATER¬FROM¬THE¬4OKTOGUL¬ ONE¬REPUBLIC¬HAS¬ALSO¬BECOME¬A¬MAJOR¬POLITICAL¬ISSUE DAM¬DURING¬WINTER¬AND¬NOT¬ENOUGH¬DURING¬SUMMER¬&ARMERS¬ IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AND¬SOUTH¬+AZAKHSTAN¬FACED¬IRRIGATION¬WATER¬ 3EVERAL¬INTERSTATE¬BODIES¬HAVE¬BEEN¬SET¬UP¬SINCE¬¬TO¬ SHORTAGES¬IN¬SUMMER¬&ROZEN¬WATERWAYS¬AND¬CANALS ¬UNABLE¬ DEAL¬WITH¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬WATER¬MANAGEMENT¬AT¬A¬REGIONAL¬LEVEL ¬ TO¬HANDLE¬THE¬LARGER¬VOLUME¬OF¬WATER¬IN¬WINTER ¬EITHER¬CAUSED¬ INCLUDING¬THE¬)NTERSTATE¬#OMMISSION¬FOR¬7ATER¬#OOPERATION¬ mOODING¬OF¬TOWNS¬SUCH¬AS¬+YZYL /RDA¬IN¬+AZAKHSTAN¬AND¬OF¬ WITH¬ITS¬3YR $ARYA¬AND¬!MU $ARYA¬7ATER¬"ASIN¬!UTHORITIES¬ ARABLE¬LAND¬OR¬WASTEFULLY¬DIVERTED¬WATER¬INTO¬THE¬!RNAYSAY¬ (OWEVER¬DISPUTES¬ABOUT¬WATER¬ALLOCATIONS¬SHOW¬THAT¬INTER DEPRESSION ¬CREATING¬A¬SYSTEM¬OF¬LAKES¬COVERING¬ ¬SQ¬ STATE¬BODIES¬STILL¬CANNOT¬SOLVE¬CRITICAL¬ISSUES ¬OFTEN¬LACKING¬ KM¬AND¬RAISING¬THE¬LEVEL¬OF¬GROUNDWATER THE¬NECESSARY¬POLITICAL¬BACKING¬OF¬THE¬HIGHEST¬SPHERES¬OF¬ THE¬RELEVANT¬GOVERNMENTS¬SEE¬'ELY¬AND¬-ULLER ¬ )F¬WE¬LOOK¬AT¬THE¬WATER¬VERSUS¬ENERGY¬EQUATION ¬+AZAKHSTAN¬ AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬HAVE¬MANAGED¬TO¬HAMMER¬OUT¬AGREEMENTS¬ &OR¬EXAMPLE¬ALTHOUGH¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬"ASIN¬0ROGRAMME¬IS¬ WITH¬+YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬4AJIKISTAN¬TO¬SWAP¬FOSSIL¬FUELS¬FOR¬WATER¬ ADMINISTERED¬BY¬A¬COUNCIL¬OF¬DEPUTY¬PRIME¬MINISTERS ¬AND¬ (OWEVER¬THE¬TERMS¬OF¬TRADE¬IN¬WATER FOR FUEL¬SWAPS¬ARE¬PROB THE¬)NTERNATIONAL¬&UND¬FOR¬3AVING¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬IS¬GOVERNED¬ LEMATIC¬PROMPTING¬RECURRENT¬CRISES¬OVER¬PAYMENT¬FOR¬WATER¬ ROTATINGLY¬BY¬THE¬PRESIDENTS¬OF¬THE¬lVE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬COUN OR¬FUEL¬4HE¬QUESTION¬OF¬PAYING¬FOR¬MANAGEMENT¬AND¬MAIN TRIES¬n¬A¬SOLUTION¬THAT¬SHOULD¬GUARANTEE¬A¬HIGH¬LEVEL¬OF¬PO

Xbufs!nbobhfnfou!jo!Dfousbm!Btjb; Qmbo!gps!ejwfsujoh!Jsuzdi boe!Pc!sjwfst!up!Bsbm!Tfb tubuf!boe!jnqbdu Upxbse!Svttjb SVTTJB boe!puifs!DJT!dpvousjft Qfuspqbwmptl SVTTJB Lvtubobv SVTTJB Sveoz Wpmhb cpm Nbljotl Qbwmpebs Psbm Up izn Fljcbtuv{ J m Jt su

b Btubob z s DBOBM ti Vtu.

V JSUZTI. Lbnfophpstl Blupcf Bslbmzl LBSBHBOEB Tfnfz )Tfnjqbmbujotl* Uvshbj Lbsbhboeb MBLF [BJ[BO Fncb Bzbhv{ [bjtbo Buzsbv E{if{lb{hbo MBLF MBLF BSBM Bsbm BMBLPM TFB LB[BLITUBO CBMLIBTI Uzvsbubn Tbsztibhbo Upxbse Bsbm!Tfb Xftufso tipsfmjof SFTFSWPJS.MBLF Lz{zm.Pseb Fvspqf Blubv jo!uif!2:61t T PG!!LBQDIBHB z boe!Bnfsjdb s.E b sz LBSBLBMQBLTUBO b Bmnbuz Lbsbubv E{ibncvm MBLF Ovlvt Cjtilfl JTTZL.LVM B[FSCBJKBO V[CFLJTUBO Tiznlfou LZSHZ[TUBO Ebtiphv{ Vshfodi MBLF SFTFSWPJS Obszo Lbocbs.Bub!J!boe!JJ B Obnbohbo Uvslnfocbtij DIBSEBSB Ubtilfou TBSZHBNZTI n izespqmbou!qspkfdut DBTQJBO v Boejkbo . Obwpz E Kj{bli Lplboe Pti SFTFSWPJS TFB UVSLNFOJTUBO b Cvlibsb sz UPLUPHVM b GFSHIBOB Tbnbslboe WBMMFZ SFTFSWPJS DIJOB Uvslnfobcbe !!!OVSFL Btihbcbu Lbstij )Dibse{ipv* Evtibocf 2 Sphvo!)2*!boe!Tbohuveb!)3* ebn!boe!izespqmbou!qspkfdut Nbsz Lfslj 3 TBSF[!MBLF Hpmefo!Dfouvsz!Mblf!jo LBSB.LVN Lvshbo. UBKJLJTUBO JSBO uif!Lbsb.Lvn!eftfsu DBOBM Uvcf Tibsf!boe!ejtusjcvujpo!pg jo!Uvslnfojtubo BGHIBOJTUBO Bnv.Ebszb!boe!Tzs.Ebszb xbufst!;!mbdl!pg!dpifsfou 1311 511 711!ln Qspkfdufe!jodsfbtf!pg QBLJTUBO nvmujmbufsbm!qpmjdjft!bnpoh xbufs!vtf!efnboe!gspn uif!gjwf!Dfousbm!Btjbo!dpvousjft QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[-!VOFQ0HSJE!BSFOEBM-!NBZ!3114 Bnv.Ebsjb!cz!Bghibojtubo

Qpmmvufe!xbufs!cpejft Jnqbdu Dpodfsot!gps!uif!gvuvsf!boe!qpufoujbm!bsfbt!pg!ufotjpo Sjwfst!boe!dbobmt Gpsnfs!cfe!pg!uif!Bsbm!Tfb-!vodpwfsfe Bsfbt!pg!joufotjwf!boe!jofggjdjfou!jssjhbufe!bhsjdvmuvsf bsfb!foujsfmz!eftfsujgjfe!boe!tbmjof qsbdujdft!xjui!qpufoujbm!up!tufsjmj{f!tpjm!boe!uisfbufo Mblft Hspvoexbufs ivnbo!ifbmui Bsfbt!ejsfdumz!bggfdufe!cz!uif!dpotfrvfodft pg!uif!tisjolbhf!pg!uif!Bsbm!Tfb!)upyjd!tbmut*- Qspkfdufe!xbufs!jogsbtusvduvsf!ps!nbobhfnfou Bsfbt!voefs!uisfbu!pg!gmppe!boe qmbot!xjui!dpogmjdu!ps!joufsobujpobm!ejnfotjpo pg!qpmmvujpo!evf!up!njtnbob. mfbejoh!up!tbmjoj{bujpo!boe!eftfsujgjdbujpo hfnfou! pg! vqtusfbn! xbufs sftfswpjst!boe!ib{bsepvt!xbtuf Njhsbujpo!gspn!fowjsponfoubmmz!efhsbefe!bsfbt tupsbhf!tjuft ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY 8LIJS[PMRKERHLYRXMRKSJ%OLWMEVIZIV]KSSH MRHIIH [LMXIHIIVEFSYRHMRXLI[EWXISRXLI %OLWMWMHISJXLI7EMLYR MRXLINYRKPISRXLI %RHMNERWMHIEFYRHERXERH[IPPJIHFYGOWERH HSIWTLIEWERXERHLEVIEVILEH

LITICAL¬COMMITMENT¬n¬IN¬PRACTICE¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬WATER¬AS¬WELL¬ (OWEVER¬IN¬THE¬CASE¬OF¬THE¬:ERAVSHAN¬AND¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEYS ¬ AS¬OVERALL¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬MANAGEMENT¬IS¬LEFT¬LARGELY¬UP¬TO¬ DESPITE¬THE¬VERY¬LOCAL¬CHARACTER¬OF¬CONmICTS ¬THE¬PRESENCE¬OF¬ BILATERAL¬RELATIONS¬BETWEEN¬INDIVIDUAL¬STATES¬)N¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ INTERNATIONAL¬BORDERS¬ANDOR¬THE¬IMPLICATION¬OF¬COMMUNITIES¬ THE¬!3"0¬AND¬)&!3¬SHOULD¬PROVIDE¬A¬BASIS¬FOR¬JOINT¬POLICIES¬ BELONGING¬TO¬ANOTHER¬ETHNIC¬GROUP¬HAVE¬LOADED¬THE¬CONmICT¬ AND¬ACTIONS¬!T¬A¬NATIONAL¬LEVEL¬THE¬VARIOUS¬MINISTRIES¬SHOULD¬ WITH¬A¬TRANSBORDER¬ANDOR¬ETHNIC¬DIMENSION¬ BE¬ABLE¬TO¬INTEGRATE¬THE¬ACTIONS¬OF¬THE¬INTERSTATE¬BODIES¬INTO¬ NATIONAL¬POLICIES ¬STRATEGIES¬AND¬PROGRAMMES¬"UT¬THE¬REAL¬ !S¬DISCUSSED¬ABOVE ¬THE¬TENSIONS¬RELATED¬TO¬MANAGEMENT¬ ABILITY¬OF¬MINISTRIES¬TO¬FULlL¬THE¬TASK¬IS¬OFTEN¬OVERESTIMATED¬ OF¬ WATER¬ FROM¬ THE¬ 4OKTOGUL¬ RESERVOIR¬ HAVE¬ STRAINED¬ RELA !T¬A¬PROVINCIAL¬LEVEL¬THE¬INVOLVEMENT¬OF¬LOCAL¬GOVERNMENT ¬ TIONS¬ BETWEEN¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ +AZAKHSTAN¬ AND¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ THE¬PRIVATE¬SECTOR ¬AND¬CIVIL¬SOCIETY¬ORGANIZATIONS¬AND¬IN TO¬THE¬POINT¬THAT¬+YRGYZ¬TROOPS¬WERE¬DEPLOYED¬IN¬SUMMER¬ STITUTIONS¬IS¬NEEDED¬TO¬TRANSLATE¬POLICIES¬AND¬PROGRAMMES¬ ¬AND¬¬DROUGHT¬YEARS ¬TO¬PROTECT¬THE¬RESERVOIR¬AND¬ INTO¬ACTION¬AND¬PROVIDE¬FEEDBACK¬#IVIL¬SOCIETY¬IS¬OFTEN¬AN¬ WATER¬RELEASE¬OPERATIONS¬/N¬THE¬OTHER¬HAND¬THE¬CONSTANT¬ IMPORTANT¬VECTOR¬FOR¬PARTIES¬DIRECTLY¬CONCERNED¬BY¬WATER¬ INVOLVEMENT¬OF¬INTERSTATE¬BODIES ¬MULTILATERAL¬ORGANIZATIONS ¬ ISSUES¬TO¬EXPRESS¬THEIR¬VIEWS¬4HE¬ACTUAL¬DECISION MAKING¬ INTERNATIONAL¬lNANCIAL¬ORGANIZATIONS¬AND¬KEY¬REGIONAL¬PLAY PROCESS¬OFTEN¬IGNORES¬THIS¬ASPECT¬OF¬PARTICIPATION ¬DESPITE¬ ERS¬IS¬A¬GUARANTEE¬THAT¬ENOUGH¬PRESSURE¬AND¬RESOURCES¬ARE¬ ATTEMPTS¬BY¬SOME¬INTERSTATE¬ORGANIZATIONS¬SUCH¬AS¬)&!3¬OR¬ BROUGHT¬TO¬BEAR¬ON¬THE¬PROBLEM¬TO¬lND¬A¬PEACEFUL¬SOLUTION¬ )3$#¬TO¬CREATE¬PUBLIC¬ADVISORY¬BODIES¬DRAWING¬ON¬.'/S ACCEPTABLE¬TO¬THE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬STATES¬

)NTERNATIONAL¬ORGANISATIONS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬7ORLD¬"ANK¬ARE¬IN 4HERE¬IS¬NOW¬GROWING¬OVERALL¬CONSENSUS¬THAT¬WATER¬SCARCITY¬ CREASINGLY¬ENGAGED¬IN¬FACILITATING¬HIGH LEVEL¬DISCUSSIONS¬AND¬ AS¬SUCH¬WILL¬NOT¬CAUSE¬WARS¬BETWEEN¬NATIONS¬"UT¬THERE¬IS¬ NEGOTIATIONS¬AMONG¬THE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬STATES¬ON¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬ ALSO¬A¬GROWING¬CONVICTION¬THAT¬WATER¬SCARCITY¬EXACERBATES¬ THE¬WATER ENERGY¬NEXUS¬)F¬THE¬CURRENT¬PROCESS¬OF¬ESTABLISH THE¬ UNDERLYING¬ CONDITIONS¬ THAT¬ FUEL¬ LIVELIHOOD¬ CONmICTS ¬ ING¬A¬hWATER ENERGY¬CONSORTIUMv¬IS¬SUCCESSFUL ¬THE¬WATER¬AND¬ PARTICULARLY¬WHILE¬COUNTRIES¬ARE¬GOING¬THROUGH¬THE¬CRUCIAL¬ ENERGY¬CONCERNS¬OF¬THE¬STATES¬MAY¬lNALLY¬BE¬INTEGRATED¬INTO¬A¬ TRANSITION¬ PERIOD¬ BETWEEN¬ DEPENDENCE¬ ON¬ AGRICULTURE¬ SINGLE ¬LONG TERM¬REGIONAL¬POLICY¬AND¬OPERATIONAL¬FRAMEWORK¬ AND¬A¬MODERN¬SOCIETY ¬BASED¬ON¬URBAN¬ECONOMIC¬GROWTH¬ "UT¬THE¬LIMITED¬PROSPECTS¬FOR¬ADEQUATE¬OUTSIDE¬INVESTMENT¬ 4HESE¬lNDINGS¬APPLY¬TO¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬WHERE ¬AS¬WE¬HAVE¬ IN¬A¬DEAL¬OF¬THIS¬NATURE¬MAY¬HINDER¬NEGOTIATIONS SEEN ¬STATES¬HAVE¬BEEN¬ABLE¬TO¬lND¬PRAGMATIC¬SOLUTIONS¬TO¬ WATER RELATED¬DISPUTES¬4HERE¬IS¬GREATER¬CAUSE¬FOR¬CONCERN¬ 4HE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY AT¬A¬SUB STATE¬LEVEL¬

7ATER¬IS¬A¬BASIC¬PRODUCTION¬RESOURCE¬FOR¬AGRICULTURE¬#OM /N¬THE¬BASIS¬OF¬THE¬RESULTS¬OF¬EARLIER¬STUDIES ¬%.63%#¬OBSER PETITION¬FOR¬SCARCE¬WATER¬RESOURCES¬HAS¬BEEN¬RECOGNISED¬ VATIONS¬DURING¬¬lELD¬VISITS¬AND¬CONSULTATIONS¬IN¬/SH ¬THE¬ AS¬ A¬ POTENTIAL¬ SOURCE¬ OF¬ INTERNATIONAL¬ CONmICT¬ )NDIVIDUAL¬ WATER¬QUESTION¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬AREA¬HINGES¬ON¬THREE¬MAIN¬ NATIONS¬AND¬THE¬INTERNATIONAL¬SYSTEM¬AS¬A¬WHOLE¬HAVE¬NEV CATEGORIES¬OF¬ISSUE¬WATER¬AVAILABILITY¬AND¬ACCESS¬TO¬WATER¬ ERTHELESS¬LEARNT¬TO¬MANAGE¬THIS¬THREAT¬0REVIOUS¬RESEARCH¬ WATER¬QUALITY¬RISING¬GROUNDWATER¬AND¬WATERLOGGING¬ +LÚTZLI ¬ ¬IDENTIlED¬THREE¬MAIN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬REGIONS¬ WHERE¬INCIDENTS¬OVER¬WATER¬USE¬OCCUR¬REGULARLY¬THE¬!MU 2ESEARCH¬3AVOSKUL¬ET¬AL¬ ¬POINTS¬OUT¬THAT¬THE¬AREA¬AF $ARYA¬DELTA ¬THE¬:ERAVSHAN¬VALLEY ¬AND¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ FECTED¬BY¬SALINIZATION¬AND¬WATERLOGGING¬HAS¬INCREASED¬OVER¬ THE¬LAST¬DECADE¬FROM¬ROUGHLY¬¬TO¬¬OF¬ALL¬IRRIGATED¬ 7ATER¬WARS LAND¬!T¬PRESENT¬¬OF¬IRRIGATED¬LAND¬HAS¬A¬WATER¬TABLE¬ WITHIN¬¬METRES¬OF¬THE¬SURFACE¬AND¬¬OF¬IRRIGATED¬LAND¬ 2ESEARCH¬INTO¬THE¬PROSPECT¬OF¬hWATER¬WARSv¬SHOWS¬THAT¬ SUFFERS¬FROM¬MODERATE¬TO¬HIGH¬SALINITY¬LEVELS ¬RESULTING¬IN¬A¬ A¬WAR¬HAS¬NEVER¬BEEN¬FOUGHT¬FOR¬WATER¬/NLY¬A¬HANDFUL¬OF¬ ¬DROP¬IN¬CROP¬YIELD¬3OIL¬CONTAMINATION¬LINKED¬TO¬ MINOR¬WATER¬hSKIRMISHESv¬CAN¬BE¬IDENTIlED¬FOR¬THE¬PAST¬ IRRIGATED¬AGRICULTURE¬CONTAMINATION¬BY¬PESTICIDES ¬NITRATES¬ CENTURY ¬WHILE¬OVER¬THE¬SAME¬PERIOD¬¬WATER RELATED¬ AND¬STRONTIUM ¬IS¬AN¬ISSUE¬IN¬THE¬WHOLE¬CENTRAL¬PART¬OF¬THE¬&ER TREATIES¬WERE¬SIGNED¬(OWEVER ¬IT¬SHOULD¬BE¬NOTED¬THAT¬ GHANA¬VALLEY¬WHERE¬THE¬HIGHEST¬SOIL¬SALINITY¬IS¬OBSERVED hTHERE¬IS¬AMPLE¬EVIDENCE¬THAT¬THE¬LACK¬OF¬CLEAN¬FRESH WATER¬HAS¬LED¬TO¬OCCASIONALLY¬INTENSE¬POLITICAL¬INSTABILITY¬ 4HE¬ PROBLEMS¬ OF¬ SECONDARY¬ SALINIZATION¬ AND¬ AGRICULTURE AND¬THAT ¬ON¬A¬SMALL¬SCALE ¬ACUTE¬VIOLENCE¬CAN¬RESULTv RELATED¬POLLUTION¬ARE¬NOT¬NEW ¬BEING¬CLEARLY¬LINKED¬TO¬THE¬ SPREAD¬OF¬IRRIGATION¬SYSTEMS¬AND¬THE¬CONSTRUCTION¬OF¬LARGE¬

3OURCE¬7OLF ¬ DAMS¬ALONG¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬AND¬!MU $ARYA ¬IN¬ ¬ $URING¬THIS¬PERIOD¬THE¬3OVIET¬hGOVERNMENT¬DEVOTED¬MORE¬ &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

Xbufs!jttvft!jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz UBMBT UPLUPHVM DIV SFTFSWPJS Ob szo LB[BLITUBO DIBULBM SFTFSWPJS ijl sd ij D LZSHZ[TUBO KBMBM.BCBE DIBSEBSB po SFTFSWPJS Ubtilfou bs Vdi.Lvshbo oh Cb{bs b Ebn i Lvshpo B Ebn UBTILFOU V[CFLJTUBO OBNBOHBO Obnbohbo Tv{bl Tzsebszb BOEJKBO Ebn E zb Kbmbm.Bcbe p bs t .E uz zs BOEJKBO l D TPHE T Boejkbo bo SFTFSWPJS bm Lbnqzs. T LBJSBLLVN GFSHIBOB z Dbobm s Sbwbu . ob E SFTFSWPJS b shi Lb b GBSIBE Gf Pti sb.Ebszb Hvmjtuáo s z b SFTFSWPJS TZSEBSZB Gfshibob QBQBO SFTFSWPJS PTI Livkboe

Kj{bli Cbulfo

CBULFO KJ[BLI UPSULVM zmtv SFTFSWPJS Lz{ UBKJLJTUBO [fsbwtibo

1 61 211261 311!ln Wbliti

Xbufs!jogsbtusvduvsf Xbufs!djsdvmbujpo!boe!npwfnfou

Nbjo!sftfswpjst Bsfbt!tfotjujwf!up!gmppejoh Jssjhbujpo!dbobm!ofuxpsl Hspvoe!xbufs!ubcmf!sbjtf!xjui!jnqbdu!po!ivnbo bdujwjujft!)mboe!mptt* Mbshf!boe!qppsmz!nbjoubjofe!ebnt-!qpttjcmz!voefs!uisfbu pg!dpmmbqtf/!Sfhvmbujpo!pg!usbotcpvoebsz!sjwfst!cz!sftfswpjst/ Svopgg;!uif!tj{f!pg!bsspxt!jt!qspqpsujpobm!up uif!wpmvnf!pg!uif!xbufs!gmpx

Xbufs!rvbmjuz!boe!bwbjmbcjmjuz Ejtqvuft

Qpps!xbufs!rvbmjuz!)qpmmvujpo!gspn!bhsjdvmuvsbm Sfdpsefe!ufotjpot!boe!dpogmjdut!evf!up tpvsdft-!joevtusjbm!fggmvfout!boe!vousfbufe!nvojdjqbm xbufs!tibsf!boe!bmmpdbujpot xbtufxbufs!ejtdibshf*!ps!ejggjdvmu!bddftt!up!xbufs!gps esjoljoh!boe!bhsjdvmuvsbm!vtf!evf!up!qpmmvujpo!boe!ebnbhf UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!!BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT pg!jogsbtusvduvsf!)xbufs!joublft-!dbobmt-!esbjot* PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ-!PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ Ijhi!mfwfm!pg!qpmmvujpo NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116

ATTENTION¬TO¬INSTALLING¬COLLECTOR DRAINAGE¬NETWORKS¬TO¬COPE¬ ON¬ONE¬OF¬THE¬MAIN¬IRRIGATION¬CHANNELS¬n¬AND¬THE¬+AIRAK WITH¬THE¬GROWING¬PROBLEMS¬OF¬RISING¬GROUNDWATER¬LEVELS ¬ KUM¬RESERVOIR¬ WATERLOGGING¬ AND¬ SECONDARY¬ SALINIZATION¬ (OWEVER ¬THIS¬ INCREASED¬RETURN¬DRAINAGE¬mOWS¬INTO¬RIVERS ¬SUBSTANTIALLY¬ !NOTHER¬RELATED¬PROBLEM¬IS¬POLLUTION¬OF¬DRINKING¬WATER¬RESOURC WORSENING¬THEIR¬QUALITYv¬-ICKLIN ¬¬ ¬ ES¬BY¬ORGANIC¬WASTE ¬A¬PROBLEM¬USUALLY¬LINKED¬TO¬THE¬BREAK DOWN¬OF¬LOCAL¬DRINKING¬WATER¬INFRASTRUCTURES ¬AS¬IN¬THE¬CASE¬OF¬ 4HE¬WIDESPREAD¬USE¬OF¬MINERAL¬FERTILIZERS¬AND¬PESTICIDES¬ /SH¬CITY¬AND¬TOWNS¬IN¬THE¬5ZBEK¬&ERGHANA¬REGION¬)T¬MAY¬ALSO¬ ALSO¬CONTRIBUTED¬TO¬POLLUTION¬OF¬WATER¬RESOURCES¬THROUGH¬ BE¬DUE¬TO¬A¬COMPLETE¬LACK¬OF¬INFRASTRUCTURE¬AS¬WITH¬'ANTCHI¬IN¬ RETURN¬ mOWS¬ FROM¬ IRRIGATED¬ lELDS¬ 7ATER¬ SALINIZATION¬ AND¬ 3OGD ¬4AJIKISTAN ¬WHERE¬THE¬WATER¬USED¬BY¬THE¬DOWNSTREAM¬ THE¬ASSOCIATED¬DETERIORATION¬IN¬THE¬QUALITY¬OF¬DRINKING¬WATER¬ 4AJIK¬SETTLEMENT¬IS¬POLLUTED¬BY¬WASTE¬FROM¬+YRGYZ¬COMMUNI AFFECT¬+ANIBADAM¬IN¬4AJIKISTANS¬3OGD¬PROVINCE¬n¬A¬TOWN¬ TIES¬UPSTREAM¬3UCH¬CASES¬OF¬POLLUTION¬ARE¬OFTEN¬A¬THREAT¬TO¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

THE¬HEALTH¬OF¬LOCAL¬PEOPLE¬AS¬WITH¬THE¬RECENT¬EPIDEMICS¬IN¬THE¬ 3EVERAL¬ FACTORS¬ ARE¬ RELATED¬ TO¬ THE¬ SITUATIONS¬ MENTIONED¬ "ATKEN¬AND¬/SH¬PROVINCES ¬RESPECTIVELY¬HIT¬BY¬TYPHOID¬AND¬ ABOVE¬ )N¬ PARALLEL¬ TO¬ IMPROVING¬ IRRIGATION¬ CONDITIONS¬ AND¬ HEPATITIS ¬4HEY¬MAY¬ALSO¬FUEL¬UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM¬TENSION¬ AGRICULTURAL¬PERFORMANCE ¬HUGE¬3OVIET¬IRRIGATION¬SCHEMES¬ BETWEEN¬COMMUNITIES¬EASILY¬SPLIT¬ALONG¬ETHNIC¬LINES¬ ALSO¬CAUSED¬HIGHER¬WATER¬USE ¬SOIL¬EROSION ¬RISING¬GROUNDWA TER¬LEVELS ¬WATERLOGGING ¬SECONDARY¬SALINIZATION ¬AND ¬OFTEN¬ -OREOVER¬BECAUSE¬OF¬THE¬HIGH¬DENSITY¬OF¬WATERWAYS¬CROSS IN¬THE¬LONG¬TERM ¬LOWER¬YIELDS¬#ONSTRUCTION¬PLANNERS¬AND¬ ING¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬THE¬AREA¬IS¬AT¬RISK¬FROM¬POLLUTION¬ CONTRACTORS¬TENDED¬TO¬UNDERESTIMATE¬SUCH¬CONSEQUENCES ¬ CAUSED¬ BY¬ SPILLS¬ OR¬ OTHER¬ ACCIDENTS¬ RELATED¬ TO¬ INDUSTRIAL¬ OR¬EVEN¬NEGLECTED¬THE¬NEED¬TO¬INSTALL¬PROPER¬DRAINAGE¬FACILI ACTIVITIES¬OR¬DANGEROUS¬WASTES¬SEE¬THE¬SECTION¬ON¬INDUSTRY¬ TIES¬IN¬THE¬DRIVE¬TO¬MAXIMIZE¬THE¬EXTENT¬OF¬NEW¬IRRIGATION¬TO¬ AND¬WASTE¬BELOW SUSTAIN¬THE¬INmUX¬OF¬STATE¬FUNDS¬-ICKLIN¬

4HE¬RISING¬LEVEL¬OF¬GROUNDWATER¬IS¬A¬PROBLEM¬IN¬AREAS¬AROUND¬ RESERVOIRS ¬ESPECIALLY¬AROUND¬THE¬+AMPYR 2AVAT¬!NDIJAN ¬ )RRIGATION¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA RESERVOIR¬IN¬3OUTH¬+YRGYZSTAN¬)N¬THE¬+ARA 3UU¬AND¬5Z GEN¬DISTRICTS¬OF¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬THE¬NEIGHBOURING¬ )N¬ THE¬ 3OVIET¬ ERA¬ EXTENSIVE¬ IRRIGATION¬ INFRASTRUCTURES¬ VILLAGES¬OF¬THE¬+URGAN 4EPE¬DISTRICT¬ACROSS¬THE¬BORDER¬IN¬ WERE¬DEVELOPED¬ALONG¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬AND¬!MU $ARYA ¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ IT¬ IS¬ ESTIMATED¬ THAT¬ ¬ HOMES¬ HAVE¬ BEEN¬ BASIN¬ 4HE¬ PERIOD¬ BETWEEN¬ ¬ AND¬ ¬ SAW¬ THE¬ SEVERELY¬ DAMAGED¬ AND¬ UP¬ TO¬ ¬ HECTARES¬ OF¬ ARABLE¬ CONSTRUCTION¬ OF¬ RESERVOIRS ¬ IRRIGATION¬ CANALS ¬ PUMP LAND¬ LOST ¬ HIGHLIGHTING¬ THE¬ TRANSBOUNDARY¬ NATURE¬ OF¬ THE¬ ING¬STATIONS¬AND¬lELD¬CANALS ¬RESULTING¬IN¬MOST¬OF¬THE¬ PROBLEM¬ )N¬ THE¬ /SH¬ PROVINCE¬ OF¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ MORE¬ THAN¬ WATER¬ IN¬ THE¬ RIVERS¬ BEING¬ DIVERTED¬ FOR¬ IRRIGATION¬ 4HE¬ ¬SETTLEMENTS¬HAVE¬BEEN¬AFFECTED¬2ISING¬GROUNDWATER¬ IRRIGATION¬ INFRASTRUCTURE¬ SUPPORTED¬ THE¬ CULTIVATION¬ OF¬ CAUSES¬DESTRUCTION¬OF¬TOPSOIL ¬THE¬DISAPPEARANCE¬OF¬mORA¬ COTTON ¬WHEAT ¬FODDER ¬FRUIT ¬VEGETABLES¬AND¬RICE¬IN¬THE¬ AND¬CROPS¬ONCE¬FOUND¬IN¬THE¬AREA ¬AND¬POOR¬HEALTH¬AMONG¬ ARID¬STEPPE¬AREAS¬)T¬ENABLED¬THE¬EXPANSION¬OF¬IRRIGATED¬ THE¬ POPULATION¬ OF¬ AFFECTED¬ VILLAGES¬ !¬ SIMILAR¬ SITUATION¬ AREAS¬DURING¬THIS¬PERIOD¬BY¬¬IN¬THE¬!MU $ARYA¬ PREVAILS¬AROUND¬AND¬DOWNSTREAM¬FROM¬THE¬0APAN¬RESER BASIN¬AND¬¬IN¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬BASIN¬ VOIR¬4HE¬PROBLEM¬ALSO¬ACQUIRES¬AN¬ADDITIONAL¬INTERSTATE¬ DIMENSION¬ &OR¬ ONE¬ THING ¬ SEVERAL¬ RESERVOIRS¬ LOCATED¬ IN¬ ,ARGE¬NUMBERS¬OF¬PEOPLE¬MOVED¬TO¬THE¬AREA¬TO¬WORK¬ON¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ CATER¬ PRIMARILY¬ FOR¬ 5ZBEKISTANS¬ AGRICULTURAL¬ FARMS¬"Y¬¬AGRICULTURE¬ACCOUNTED¬FOR¬¬OF¬'$0¬ NEEDS¬3ECONDLY¬THE¬DAMAGE¬EXTENDS¬FAR¬DOWN¬INTO¬THE¬ IN¬+AZAKHSTAN ¬¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN ¬¬IN¬4URKMENISTAN ¬ 5ZBEK¬PART¬OF¬THE¬VALLEY¬AFFECTING¬EVEN¬THE¬CITY¬OF¬!NDIJAN ¬ ¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬AND¬¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬4HE¬TOTAL¬ 7ATERLOGGING¬DOWNSTREAM¬FROM¬LARGE¬RESERVOIRS¬SUCH¬AS¬ AGRICULTURAL¬AREA¬IN¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬BASIN¬AMOUNTED¬TO¬ 4OKTOGUL¬IS¬CAUSING¬INCREASING¬PROBLEMS¬BETWEEN¬STATES ¬ ¬M¬HECTARES ¬¬OF¬WHICH¬WAS¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬AND¬ WITH¬THE¬5ZBEK¬AUTHORITIES¬BUILDING¬INTERMEDIATE¬RESERVOIRS¬ ¬IN¬SOUTH¬+AZAKHSTAN¬ AND¬CANALS¬TO¬CAPTURE¬AND¬DIVERT¬EXCESS¬mOW #OTTON¬ACCOUNTS¬FOR¬NEARLY¬ ¬OF¬EXPORTS¬#EN 4HE¬RISING¬LEVEL¬OF¬THE¬WATER¬TABLE¬AROUND¬THE¬+AIRAKKUM¬ TRAL¬!SIA¬IS¬THE¬WORLDS¬THIRD¬LARGEST¬COTTON¬PRODUCER¬)N¬ RESERVOIR¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬IS¬ALSO¬A¬SOURCE¬OF¬CONCERN¬)N¬THE¬ ¬ABOUT¬¬OF¬IRRIGATED¬LAND¬WAS¬DEVOTED¬TO¬COTTON¬ BORDER¬AREAS¬OF¬!RKA¬AND¬+ISTAKUZ ¬THE¬RISING¬WATER¬LEVEL¬ CULTIVATION ¬¬TO¬WHEAT ¬¬TO¬FRUIT¬AND¬VEGETABLES ¬ IS¬ DRIVING¬ 4AJIKS¬TO¬ RESETTLE¬ ON¬ HIGHER¬ +YRGYZ¬ LAND ¬ WITH¬ ¬TO¬FODDER ¬¬TO¬RICE¬AND¬¬TO¬OTHER¬MINOR¬CROPS¬ THE¬ASSOCIATED¬PROBLEMS¬OF¬LAND¬ACCESS¬DESCRIBED¬IN¬THE¬ #OTTON ¬FODDER ¬FRUIT¬AND¬VEGETABLES¬ARE¬THE¬ECONOMICALLY¬ PRECEDING¬SECTION VIABLE¬CROPS¬4HE¬AREA¬GIVEN¬OVER¬TO¬WHEAT¬IS¬INCREASING¬ DUE¬TO¬THE¬REPUBLICS¬FOOD¬SELF SUFlCIENCY¬CONCERNS )N¬THE¬SAME¬AREA¬!RKA¬AND¬+ISTAKUZ ¬THERE¬WAS¬ALREADY¬TEN SION¬BETWEEN¬+YRGYZ¬AND¬4AJIKS¬DUE¬TO¬THE¬USE¬OF¬IRRIGATION¬ )RRIGATION¬IS¬INEFlCIENT¬7ATER¬USE¬IS¬AS¬HIGH¬AS¬ ¬ WITHOUT¬ PROPER¬ DRAINAGE¬ BY¬ THE¬ +YRGYZ¬ AND¬ SUBSEQUENT¬ CUBIC¬METRES¬PER¬HECTARE¬AND¬ONLY¬¬OF¬THIS¬IS¬EF WATERLOGGING¬OF¬4AJIK¬FARMLAND¬)N¬THE¬)SFARA "ATKEN¬AREAS¬ FECTIVELY¬USED¬4HE¬REMAINING¬¬IS¬LOST ¬MOSTLY¬FROM¬ TENSIONS¬OVER¬WATER¬AND¬LAND¬RIGHTS¬ARE¬NOT¬NEW¬)N¬*ULY¬¬ UNLINED¬CANALS¬ON¬AND¬BETWEEN¬FARMS¬4HIS¬COMPARES¬ A¬LONGSTANDING¬DISPUTE¬BETWEEN¬4AJIKS¬AND¬+YRGYZ¬CAME¬TO¬ WITH¬ABOUT¬¬LOSSES¬IN¬DEVELOPING¬COUNTRIES A¬HEAD¬OVER¬LAND¬AND¬WATER¬RIGHTS¬7EINTHAL ¬ ¬)N¬ +ARA "AK ¬A¬VILLAGE¬IN¬THE¬"ATKEN¬PROVINCE ¬WATER¬SATURATION¬ 3OURCE¬7ORLD¬"ANK ¬ HAS¬RENDERED¬SOME¬¬HECTARES¬OF¬LAND¬UNUSABLE¬ &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

)N¬THE¬PERIOD¬SINCE¬INDEPENDENCE¬THE¬LACK¬OF¬FUNDS¬AND¬A¬ &INALLY ¬ IN¬ THE¬ PERIOD¬ FOLLOWING¬ INDEPENDENCE ¬ NEW¬ LAND¬ CLEAR¬PICTURE¬OF¬RESPONSIBILITY¬FOR¬MAINTAINING¬THE¬SYSTEM¬ WAS¬ALLOCATED¬TO¬PRODUCTION¬IN¬RESPONSE¬TO¬THE¬PRESSURE¬ LED¬ TO¬ GRADUAL¬ DEGRADATION¬ OF¬ THE¬ EXISTING¬ IRRIGATION¬ AND¬ OF¬POPULATION¬GROWTH¬4HE¬NEWLY¬DEVELOPED¬LAND¬IS¬OFTEN¬IN¬ DRAINAGE¬INFRASTRUCTURE¬4HE¬RESULT¬IS¬FURTHER¬DAMAGE¬TO¬THE¬ MARGINAL¬AREAS ¬NOTABLY¬THE¬SLOPES¬OF¬+YRGYZ¬BORDER¬PROV SOIL¬AND¬LOSS¬OF¬TOP¬QUALITY¬ARABLE¬LAND INCES¬"ATKEN ¬/SH ¬*ALAL !BAD ¬4HE¬LAND¬IS¬OFTEN¬IRRIGATED¬

%.63%#¬#!3%¬345$9 &LOODS¬IN¬THE¬3PITAMEN¬DISTRICT ¬4AJIKISTAN

$URING¬THE¬%.63%#¬lELD MISSION¬ASSESSMENTS¬IN¬3EPTEMBER¬ Cflbcbe V[C/ Plupti b AND¬$ECEMBER¬ ¬THE¬AUTHORITIES¬IN¬THE¬3PITAMEN¬DISTRICT ¬ Gbsibe ebsz Sftfswpjs Tzs IN¬4AJIKISTANS¬3OGD¬PROVINCE ¬MENTIONED¬THAT¬mOODS¬BY¬THE¬ Efhnbz Plufqb RIVER¬!KSU ¬WHICH¬FORMS¬IN¬NEIGHBOURING¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬REGULARLY¬ Lvtiufhfsnpo Ibtiujzbl Qspmfubstl ENDANGER¬4AJIK¬ARABLE¬LAND¬DOWNSTREAM¬AND¬VILLAGES¬ALONG¬ Nfiobubcbe THE¬RIVER Hvmipob Lvslbu Hvmblboep{ Tqjubnfo Zbohjljtimbl Ubhpzbl Zbohjcbe 4HE¬SUDDEN¬RELEASE¬OF¬WATER¬IS¬THOUGHT¬TO¬BE¬LINKED¬TO¬THE¬ Ubkjlbcbe DEVELOPMENT¬OF¬MORE¬THAN¬ ¬HECTARES¬OF¬RICE¬PADDIES¬ON¬ Nfiubs Boebstbz Ijubz HIGHER¬GROUND¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬4HE¬LOCAL¬AUTHORITIES¬POINTED¬ Lz{zml Mbohbs OUT¬THE¬LACK¬OF¬A¬PROPER¬DRAINAGE¬INFRASTRUCTURE¬THE¬EXISTING¬ INFRASTRUCTURE¬WAS¬NOT¬DESIGNED¬TO¬HANDLE¬THE¬EXTRA¬mOW ¬AND¬ Gmppejoh!cz Bltvv!Sjwfs INADEQUATE¬CONTROL¬BY¬THE¬+YRGYZ¬AUTHORITIES ¬ALLEGEDLY¬UNABLE¬ Plufqb TO¬ENFORCE¬PROPER¬CONSTRUCTION¬STANDARDS¬AND¬TO¬INmUENCE¬ UBKJLJTUBO THE¬CHOICE¬OF¬CULTIVATED¬CROPS¬BY¬THE¬LOCAL¬POPULATION¬0LANS¬ Lvshpodib Ibcvubl Ekbojti FOR¬A¬DAM¬TO¬PROTECT¬4AJIK¬LAND¬FROM¬EXCESS¬WATER¬HAVE¬BEEN¬ Bncbsib{ DISCUSSED Tvmvlub v v LZSHZ[TUBO Bncbsib{j.cpmp t Tbbnbu l Bltvv Nvekvn B (OWEVER¬LOCAL¬WATER¬EXPERTS¬SUGGEST¬THAT¬INCREASED¬WATER¬ Cfticbmb Tvcbtij Dijnhfo LEVELS¬IN¬SPRING¬IN¬RECENT¬YEARS¬MAY¬ALSO¬BE¬DUE¬TO¬THE¬IN 2539 CREASED¬AND¬RAPID¬ICE¬AND¬SNOW¬MELT¬CAUSED¬BY¬A¬WARMER¬ Jtgbob Lvdiljob CLIMATE¬IN¬THE¬HIGHLAND¬WATERSHEDS¬3PITAMEN¬IS¬STILL¬A¬SECURITY¬ ISSUE ¬BECAUSE¬THE¬4AJIK¬COMMUNITIES¬ARE¬CONVINCED¬UPSTREAM¬ Nbjebo +YRGYZ¬COMMUNITIES¬ARE¬RESPONSIBLE¬FOR¬THE¬mOODING Boebsbl 3694 2:54 Lfl.Ubti Ubticvmbl Eblbu UVSLFTUBO Ivtiflbu 491: NPVOUBJOT

1 21 31!ln Fmfwbujpo!jo!nfusft 411 Sjtjoh!xbufs!mfwfmt!jo!uif 611 Tqjubnfo!ejtusjdu!)Ubkjljtubo* 2!111 Sfevdfe!dspq!zjfmet!boe!jodsfbtfe!tpjm 2!611 fsptjpo

UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!BHFODJFT DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT!PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ- PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/

NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116

3OURCE¬%.63%#¬lELD¬VISITS¬ ¬.ATURAL¬2ESOURCES¬4RACK ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

WITHOUT¬PROVISION¬OF¬A¬PROPER¬DRAINAGE¬SYSTEM¬AND¬SOWN¬ LOST¬THEIR¬FORMER¬COUNTERPARTS ¬THE¬COLLECTIVE¬FARMS¬7ITH¬ WITH¬WATER CONSUMING¬RICE ¬EXACERBATING¬RISING¬GROUNDWA SO¬MANY¬PLAYERS¬THE¬AUTHORITIES¬TASK¬IS¬ALMOST¬IMPOSSIBLE¬ TER¬LEVELS¬LOWER¬DOWN¬THE¬SLOPES¬!S¬THE¬AFFECTED¬AREAS¬ARE¬ )T¬IS¬VERY¬DIFlCULT¬TO¬CALCULATE¬WATER¬ALLOTMENTS¬FOR¬SMALL¬ USUALLY¬IN¬ANOTHER¬STATE¬n¬4AJIKISTAN¬OR¬5ZBEKISTAN¬n¬THESE¬ UNITS ¬ IRRIGATION¬ AND¬ DRAINAGE¬ SYSTEMS¬ NOT¬ HAVING¬ BEEN¬ LOCAL¬ISSUES¬QUICKLY¬TURN¬INTO¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬PROBLEMS¬SEE¬ DESIGNED¬TO¬SERVE¬SMALL SCALE¬FARMS¬4HIS¬IS¬WHY¬LOCAL¬WATER¬ CASE¬STUDY¬IN¬THE¬BOX ¬ AUTHORITIES¬FAVOUR¬THE¬CREATION¬OF¬WATER¬USER¬ASSOCIATIONS¬ !NALYSTS¬POINT¬OUT¬THAT¬THE¬WATER¬ALLOCATED¬TO¬PRIVATE¬PLOTS¬ 4HE¬ BORDER¬ REGIONS¬ BETWEEN¬ +YRGYZSTAN ¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬ IS¬GENERALLY¬QUITE¬INADEQUATE ¬SO¬HOUSEHOLDS¬COMPETE¬FOR¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬ INCLUDING¬ THE¬ ENCLAVES ¬ ARE¬ ALSO¬ PARTICULARLY¬ WATER¬WITH¬INDIVIDUALS¬AND¬GROUPS¬DIVERTING¬WATER¬TO¬THEIR¬ PRONE¬TO¬WATER¬AVAILABILITY¬AND¬ACCESS¬TO¬WATER¬PROBLEMS ¬ OWN¬PLOTS¬/(ARA ¬ ¬7ATER¬ALLOCATION¬HAS¬ALSO¬AN¬ELITE¬ THE¬IRRIGATION¬INFRASTRUCTURE¬HAVING¬BEEN¬BUILT¬WHEN¬THE¬BOR DIMENSION¬,OCAL¬ELITES¬WITH¬ACCESS¬TO¬LAND¬ALSO¬MANAGE¬TO¬ DERS¬WERE¬ONLY¬ADMINISTRATIVE¬DIVISIONS¬)RRIGATION¬CHANNELS¬ OBTAIN¬BETTER¬ACCESS¬TO¬WATER¬THAN¬SMALL¬FARMERS¬ NOW¬PASS¬THROUGH¬THE¬TERRITORY¬OF¬TWO¬OR¬EVEN¬THREE¬STATES¬ $ISPUTES¬OVER¬WATER¬AVAILABILITY ¬THOUGH¬LOCAL¬IN¬SCALE ¬REACH¬ 4HE¬ QUESTION¬ OF¬ ALLOCATING¬ WATER¬ QUOTAS¬ IS¬ PARTICULARLY¬ BEYOND¬THE¬AREA¬&OR¬EXAMPLE¬THE¬BORDER¬FOR¬THE¬+IRKI¬$ONG¬ SENSITIVE¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬WHERE¬AVAILABLE¬WATER¬IS¬NOT¬EVENLY¬ AND¬+AMPYR 2AVAT¬!NDIJAN ¬RESERVOIRS¬HAS¬STILL¬NOT¬BEEN¬ DISTRIBUTED¬BETWEEN¬USERS¬.OT¬ONLY¬DO¬UPSTREAM¬PROVINCES¬ SETTLED¬SINCE¬BORDER¬DEMARCATION¬BETWEEN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AND¬ ALLEGEDLY¬TAKE¬MORE¬WATER¬THAN¬OTHERS¬DOWNSTREAM¬"UT¬ALSO¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬HAS¬YET¬TO¬BE¬COMPLETED 5ZBEK¬LEGISLATION¬STILL¬GIVES¬LARGE¬COLLECTIVE¬FARMS¬PRIORITY¬ ¬ ACCESS¬TO¬WATER¬0RIVATE¬FARMERS ¬WHO¬COUNT¬AS¬SECONDARY¬ 7ATER¬ALLOCATION¬DISPUTES¬EASILY¬TAKE¬ON¬AN¬ETHNIC¬DIMENSION¬ USERS ¬DEPEND¬ON¬THE¬COLLECTIVE¬FARMS¬FOR¬THEIR¬ACCESS¬TO¬ TOO¬)N¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬THE¬5ZBEK¬POPULATION¬IS¬CONCENTRATED¬ WATER¬4HE¬SITUATION¬IS¬EXACERBATED¬BY¬THE¬GOVERNMENTS¬ MAINLY¬IN¬THE¬3OUTH ¬IN¬/SH ¬*ALAL !BAD ¬AND¬THE¬+ARA 3UU ¬ PREFERENCE¬FOR¬CASH¬CROPS¬AND¬ITS¬QUOTA¬SYSTEM¬FOR¬COTTON¬ !RAVAN¬AND¬3UZAK¬DISTRICTS¬4HE¬3OGD¬PROVINCE¬OF¬4AJIKISTAN¬ AND¬WHEAT¬!T¬THE¬SAME¬TIME ¬GOVERNMENT¬PRICES¬FOR¬SUCH¬ HARBOURS¬ A¬ LARGE¬ 5ZBEK¬ MINORITY¬ 5NDER¬ THESE¬ CIRCUM CROPS¬TEND¬TO¬BE¬MUCH¬LOWER¬THAN¬THEIR¬OPEN¬MARKET¬VALUE ¬ STANCES¬DISPUTES¬AMONG¬LOCAL¬COMMUNITIES¬OVER¬WATER¬OR¬ IMPACTING¬ON¬THE¬VIABILITY¬OF¬INDEPENDENT¬FARMING¬ LAND¬MAY¬QUICKLY¬MOBILIZE¬COMMUNITIES¬THROUGH¬NETWORKS¬ ROOTED¬IN¬ETHNIC¬SOLIDARITY !GRICULTURE¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN

4HE¬!RAVAN ¬5ZGEN¬AND¬+ARA 3UU¬DISTRICTS¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ )N¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬AGRICULTURE¬ACCOUNTS¬FOR¬¬OF¬'$0 ¬ ARE¬REGULARLY¬THE¬SCENE¬OF¬DISPUTES¬OVER¬WATER¬ALLOCATION¬ ¬ OF¬ FOREIGN¬ EXCHANGE¬ RECEIPTS¬ AND¬ ¬ OF¬ THE¬ 4HE¬SAME¬HAPPENS¬IN¬THE¬"ATKEN¬PROVINCE ¬SPECIlCALLY¬IN¬ EMPLOYMENT¬4HE¬GOVERNMENT¬FOLLOWS¬THE¬OBJECTIVES¬ THE¬VILLAGES¬OF¬3AMARKANDEK ¬!K 3AY¬AND¬!K 4ATYR¬TENSION¬ OF¬STABILIZING¬COTTON¬EXPORT¬REVENUES ¬ACHIEVING¬WHEAT¬ BETWEEN¬4AJIK¬AND¬+YRGYZ¬COMMUNITIES ¬AND¬IN¬THE¬,EILEK ¬ SELF SUFlCIENCY ¬AND¬KEEPING¬FOOD¬PRICES¬LOW¬)N¬PURSUIT¬ "ATKEN¬ AND¬ +ADAMJAI¬ DISTRICTS¬ TENSION¬ BETWEEN¬ +YRGYZ ¬ OF¬THESE¬THE¬GOVERNMENT¬CONTROLS¬PRODUCTION ¬PLANTING ¬ 5ZBEK¬AND¬4AJIK¬VILLAGES PROCUREMENT¬AND¬PRICING¬OF¬THE¬PRODUCE¬&ARMERS¬GET¬ LOW¬PRICES¬4HE¬GOVERNMENT ¬THROUGH¬STATE¬MONOPOLIES ¬ 4HERE¬IS¬ANOTHER¬DIMENSION¬TO¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬WATER¬ALLOCATION¬ HANDLES¬INPUT¬SUPPLY¬AND¬MARKETING¬)T¬BANS¬EXPORTS¬OF¬ 4ENSION¬OVER¬THE¬AVAILABILITY¬OR¬ALLOCATION¬OF¬WATER¬IS¬ALSO¬ PRODUCTS¬LIKE¬CEREALS¬AND¬LIVESTOCK¬AND¬IMPORTS¬THROUGH¬ FREQUENT¬IN¬MONO ETHNIC¬AND¬NON BORDER¬DISTRICTS¬SUCH¬AS¬ STATE¬ MONOPOLIES¬ PRODUCTS¬ LIKE¬ SUGAR¬ AND¬ VEGETABLE¬ THE¬!LA¬"UKA¬DISTRICT¬IN¬*ALAL !BAD¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬OR¬THE¬!SHT¬ OILS¬!BOUT¬¬OF¬THE¬FARM¬AREAS¬HAVE¬BEEN¬PRIVATISED¬ DISTRICT ¬ IN¬ THE¬ 3OGD¬ PROVINCE¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬WHERE¬ TENSION¬ BUT¬ARE¬STILL¬SUBJECT¬TO¬CONTROL¬OF¬PRODUCTION ¬PRICING¬AND¬ MAINLY¬ARISES¬BETWEEN¬LOCAL¬COMMUNITIES ¬AND¬DISTRICT¬AND¬ PROCUREMENT¬0RICES¬OF¬LIVESTOCK ¬FRUIT¬AND¬VEGETABLES¬ REGIONAL¬AUTHORITIES¬3UCH¬CONmICT¬IS¬RELATED¬TO¬THE¬EMER HAVE¬BEEN¬LIBERALIZED¬7HILE¬AGRICULTURAL¬PRODUCTION¬HAS¬ GENCE¬ OF¬ NUMEROUS¬ SMALL¬ PRIVATE¬ PLOTS¬ SINCE¬ INDEPEND BEEN¬STABILIZED ¬INCENTIVES¬FOR¬EFlCIENCY¬IMPROVEMENT¬ ENCE¬ 4HIS¬ DEVELOPMENT¬ HAS¬ SIGNIlCANT¬ IMPLICATIONS¬ FOR¬ REMAIN¬LOW WATER¬USE ¬ESPECIALLY¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬+YRGYZSTAN¬WHERE¬

THE¬NUMBER¬OF¬INDIVIDUAL¬FARMERS¬IS¬PROPORTIONALLY¬HIGHER¬ 3OURCE¬7ORLD¬"ANK ¬ THAN¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬7ATER¬AUTHORITIES¬HAVE¬CONSEQUENTLY¬

/EWERhW[EXIVGSQIWJVSQ%OLWMMRXLIWEQI VMZIVTISTPIGEPPXLIQXLIiJMRIJVSRXSJXLI [E]XLEX%RHMNERhW[EXIVGSQIWJVSQ3WL/EWER GSEXj/EWERMWERHXLITISTPISJ3WLLEZIE LEWI\GIPPIRXEMVERHFIEYXMJYPPMXXPIKEVHIRW VMZEPV]EFSYX[LSWIXS[RMWQSVIFIEYXMJYPERH %WXLIWIKEVHIRWEPPPMIEPSRKXLIFIHSJXLI LEWEFIXXIVGPMQEXI &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

)NDUSTRIAL¬ACTIVITIES¬AND¬HAZARDOUS¬WASTE

4HE¬3OVIET¬DEVELOPMENT¬MODEL¬FOR¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬WAS¬BASED¬ 2USSIA¬/VER¬THE¬YEARS¬INDUSTRIAL¬AND¬MINING¬TOWNS¬HAVE¬ ON¬ BUILDING¬ LARGE SCALE¬ IRRIGATION¬ SCHEMES¬ ENABLING¬ THE¬ LOST¬A¬LARGE¬PROPORTION¬OF¬THEIR¬POPULATION¬(OWEVER¬A¬FEW¬ REGION¬TO¬BECOME¬A¬MAJOR¬COTTON¬PRODUCER¬AND¬EXPANDING¬ FACILITIES¬HAVE¬MAINTAINED¬AND¬EVEN¬DEVELOPED¬OPERATIONS¬ THE¬MINING¬AND¬PROCESSING¬INDUSTRY¬OIL¬AND¬GAS ¬CHEMICALS ¬ 4HEY¬REMAIN¬VERY¬IMPORTANT¬SOURCES¬OF¬EMPLOYMENT¬AND¬ TEXTILE ¬-AJOR¬INDUSTRIAL¬SITES¬WERE¬BUILT¬WITH¬TOWNS¬TO¬AC HARD¬CURRENCY ¬BUT¬ALSO¬POLLUTION COMMODATE¬TECHNICIANS¬AND¬WORKERS¬)NDUSTRIAL¬OPERATIONS¬ IN¬THE¬REGION¬PAID¬LIMITED¬ATTENTION¬TO¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬OR¬ 4HE¬3OVIET¬5NION¬USED¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬AS¬ONE¬OF¬ITS¬ PUBLIC¬HEALTH ¬RESULTING¬IN¬THE¬ACCUMULATION¬OF¬POLLUTANTS¬IN¬ MAIN¬SOURCES¬OF¬METAL¬AND¬URANIUM¬ORE ¬EXPLORING¬SOME¬¬ THE¬LOCAL¬ENVIRONMENT DEPOSITS¬IN¬THE¬AREA

7ITH¬INDEPENDENCE¬AND¬THE¬END¬OF¬THE¬PLANNED¬ECONOMY¬ #ONSEQUENTLY¬IT¬IS¬NOT¬ONLY¬ACTIVE¬INDUSTRIAL¬FACILITIES¬THAT¬ THAT¬UNIlED¬THE¬3OVIET¬MARKET ¬MOST¬OF¬THESE¬PLANTS¬HAD¬TO¬ CONSTITUTE¬A¬THREAT¬TO¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬OFTEN¬TO¬SECURITY¬ COMPETE¬ON¬THE¬INTERNATIONAL¬MARKET¬WITHOUT¬THE¬NECES AS¬WELL¬4HE¬LEGACY¬OF¬PAST¬OPERATIONS ¬PARTICULARLY¬IN¬MINING ¬ SARY¬EXPERIENCE¬OR¬ASSETS ¬LEADING¬TO¬A¬DRASTIC¬REDUCTION¬ IS¬ALSO¬A¬HAZARD ¬FREQUENTLY¬A¬GREATER¬ONE¬4HERE¬IS¬ALSO¬THE¬ IN¬OPERATIONS¬-ANY¬OF¬THE¬TRAINED¬TECHNICAL¬STAFF¬LEFT¬FOR¬ POSSIBILITY¬THAT¬PRODUCTION¬MAY¬START¬AGAIN¬AT¬OLD¬LOCATIONS¬

Sbejpbdujwf-!difnjdbm!boe!cjpmphjdbm

ib{bset!jo!Dfousbm!Btjb Qfuspqbwmptl

Lvtubobv LB[TBCUPO SVTTJB SVTTJB Sveoz )gpsnfs!Utfmjooz Njojoh!boe Wpmhb cpm Nbljotl Difnjdbm!Dpncjof* QBWMPEBS Up Psbm izn Tfnfz m Jt Lvsdibupw LBTQVUJO!ZBS b s Btubob )Tfnjqbmbujotl*

V MJSB )Cvsmjotljz* Blupcf Jsuzti Bslbmzl TUFQOPHPSTL S VTU. S LBNFOPHPSTL B[HZS Uvshbj Lbsbhboez TFNJQBMBUJOTL. MBLF LVSDIBUPW [BJTBO UFTU!TJUF Fncb Bzbhv{ [bjtbo Buzsbv E{if{lb{hbo CBJLPOVS!SPDLFU MBLF MBLF MBVODIJOH!TJUF BMBLPM LB[BLITUBO CBMLIBTI WP[SP[IEFOJKF QFOJOTVMB Tbsztibhbo Tbz.Vuft Uzvsbubn BLUBV NBOHZTIMBL TBZ.VUFT Tz Lz{zm.Pseb BUPNJD!FOFSHZ s.E BMNBUZ UFTU!TJUF BSBM bs DPNCJOF!)NBFL* jb Dijjmj TUFQOPZF BMBUBV TFB PUBS JOTUJUVUF!PG LBTLPS!KTD NJOJOH UTFOUSBMOPZF EJSFDUPSBUF LBSB. S OVDMFBS!QIZTJDT )gpsnfs!Qsjlbtqjztljz LBSBLBMQBLTUBO CBMUB Njojoh!boe!Nfubmmvshz Op/!7 BL.UV[ Dpncjof* OVLVT B[FSCBJKBO VDI.LVEVL TIFLBGUBS Cjtilfl LBE[IJ.TBZ Vshfodi UFSFL.TBZ NJO.LVTI Ebtiphv{ VMVHCFL LZSHZ[TUBO Uvslnfocbtij B S n V[CFLJTUBO Ubtilfou NBJMVV.TVV v DIBSLFTBS . Pti E Obwpz UFP.NPZVO UVSLNFOJTUBO b DIJOB DBTQJBO s Cvlibsb GFSHIBOB jb LBEBNKBJ TFB OVSBCBE [BGBSBCBE LIBJEBSLBO Btihbcbu Uvslnfobcbe WPTUPLSFENFU!)DILBMPWTL BO[PC S BOE!UBCPTIBS* Nbsz Evtibocf UBKJLJTUBO Lvmjbc JSBO LBSB.LVN Lvshbo. DBOBM Uvcf

1311 511 711!ln BGHIBOJTUBO QBLJTUBO QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[-!VOFQ0HSJE!BSFOEBM-!NBZ!3114

Gpsnfs!ovdmfbs!uftu!tjuf/ Dptnpespnf!boe!spdlfu!mbvodijoh!tjuf/ Sbejpbdujwf!xbtuf!tupsbhf!tjuf!hfofsbmmz!qppsmz Mbshf!qpsujpo!pg!tvsspvo. Jnqpsubou!fowjsponfoubm!jnqbdu!po!uif nbjoubjofe-!boe!bmmfhfe!up!qptf!b!tjhojgjdbou!sjtl ejoh!bsfbt!dpoubnjobufe/ tvsspvoejoh!bsfbt up!ifbmui!boe!fowjsponfou Ovdmfbs!qpxfs!qmbou Vsbojvn!njojoh!boe!njmmjoh!gbdjmjuz/!Sbejpbdujwf Pme!sbejpbdujwf!xbtuf!tjuf!)fbsmz!31ui!dfouvsz* Qpxfs!sfbdups xbtuf!sfmbufe!up!fyqmpjubujpo Gvfm!qspevdujpo Bdujwf Dmptfe Dmptfe!vsbojvn!njof Opo.sbejpbdujwf!xbtuf!tjuf!)nfsdvsz-!boujnpoz* Sftfbsdi!sfbdups Difnjdbm!boe!cjpmphjdbm!sftfbsdi!dfoufs!ps S BdujwfS Dmptfe qspevdujpo!qmbout!cfjoh!ejtnboumfe Bsfb!pg!ijhi!tfjtnjd!sjtl ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

Nfubm!qspevdujpo!jo!uif!Tpvui OR¬NEW¬OPERATIONS¬DEVELOP¬5RANIUM¬MINING ¬FOR¬INSTANCE ¬ MAY¬RESUME¬AT¬SITES¬THAT¬HAVE¬BEEN¬CLOSED¬DOWN¬AND¬GOLD¬ Lzshz{!njoft!pg!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz MINING¬MAY¬START¬AGAIN¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN Upooft 911 "ECAUSE¬OF¬THEIR¬VULNERABILITY¬TO¬NATURAL¬HAZARDS ¬PREVIOUS¬ HISTORY¬OF¬ACCIDENTS¬AND¬THEIR¬POSITION¬ALONG¬WATER¬COURSES¬ AND¬IN¬THE¬VICINITY¬OF¬TOWN¬AND¬CITIES¬IN¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬AREAS ¬ TAILING¬DUMPS¬AT¬BOTH¬ACTIVE¬AND¬CLOSED¬MINING¬ENTERPRISES¬ 711 CONSTITUTE¬A¬RISK¬)NCIDENTS¬HAVE¬BEEN¬REPORTED¬WHERE¬mOOD ING¬HAS¬WASHED¬OFF¬TAILING¬DAMS¬AT¬THE¬URANIUM¬TREATMENT¬ PLANT¬IN¬-AILUU 3UU ¬+YRGYZSTAN¬OR¬WASTE¬STORAGE¬AT¬THE¬ 511 LEAD¬ TREATMENT¬ PLANT¬ IN¬ 3UMSAR¬ !CCIDENTS¬ AND¬ NATURAL¬ DISASTERS¬COULD¬THUS¬AFFECT¬A¬POPULATION¬FAR¬BEYOND¬PEOPLE¬ LIVING¬IN¬THE¬IMMEDIATE¬VICINITY¬OF¬A¬PLANT¬OR¬DEPOSIT¬/VER¬ AND¬ABOVE¬THE¬IMMEDIATE¬DESTRUCTION ¬SUCH¬EVENTS¬COULD¬ 311 DISPLACE¬LARGE¬GROUPS¬OF¬PEOPLE¬AND¬AFFECT¬THE¬LIVELIHOOD¬ Nfsdvsz!)Ih* OF¬HOST¬REGIONS Libjebslbo!njof 1 "EFORE¬ ANALYSING¬ SPECIlC¬ LOCATIONS¬ WE¬ WISH¬ TO¬ MENTION¬ 2:51 2:61 2:71 2:81 2:91 2::1 ANOTHER¬IMPORTANT¬ASPECT ¬THE¬PERCEPTION¬OF¬RISK¬IN¬RELA TION¬TO¬INDUSTRIAL¬ACCIDENTS¬WITH¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AND¬HEALTH¬ Upooft CONSEQUENCES¬)T¬IS¬COMMON¬KNOWLEDGE¬THAT¬A¬PERCEIVED¬ 31!111 RISK¬CAN¬BE¬AS¬POWERFUL¬A¬TRIGGER¬FOR¬INSECURITY¬AS¬A¬REAL¬ THREAT ¬ ALL¬ THE¬ MORE¬ SO¬ WHEN¬ OFlCIAL¬ INFORMATION¬ SUFFERS¬ FROM¬ A¬ WIDESPREAD¬ LACK¬ OF¬ CREDIBILITY¬ !CCORDINGLY ¬ EVEN¬ 26!111 WHEN¬ AN¬ INCIDENTS¬ MEASURABLE¬ CONSEQUENCES¬ MAY¬ BE¬ LIMITED ¬IT¬IS¬STILL¬NECESSARY¬TO¬DEAL¬WITH¬HAZARDS¬AS¬THEY¬ARE¬ PERCEIVED¬BY¬THE¬GENERAL¬PUBLIC¬4HIS¬IS¬PARTICULARLY¬TRUE¬OF¬ SUCH¬EMOTIONALLY¬LOADED¬CONCERNS¬AS¬RADIOACTIVE¬POLLUTION¬ 21!111 A¬SMALL SCALE¬ACCIDENT¬AT¬A¬URANIUM¬MINING¬FACILITY ¬WITH¬LIT TLE¬REAL¬IMPACT ¬MAY¬WELL¬CREATE¬LARGE SCALE¬PUBLIC¬ANXIETY¬ #HERNOBYL¬ EFFECT ¬ DISTRUST¬ OF¬ LOCAL¬ PRODUCE¬ AGRICULTURAL¬ 6!111 OUTPUT¬ FROM¬ NEIGHBOURING¬ AREAS ¬ AND¬ PERHAPS¬ EVEN¬ DIS Boujnpoz!)Tc* PLACEMENT¬OF¬PEOPLE¬FOR¬PURELY¬PSYCHOLOGICAL¬REASONS¬4HE¬ EFFECT¬WILL¬BE¬AMPLIlED¬IF¬THE¬HAZARD¬CROSSES¬BORDERS¬4HIS¬ Lbebnkbj!njof IS¬JUST¬ONE¬REASON¬WHY¬5ZBEKISTAN¬IS¬SO¬CONCERNED¬ABOUT¬ 1 SECURING¬URANIUM¬WASTE¬ON¬LAND¬OCCUPIED¬BY¬ITS¬UPSTREAM¬ 2:51 2:61 2:71 2:81 2:91 2::1 NEIGHBOURS¬)T¬IS¬WORRIED¬THAT¬DOUBTS¬ABOUT¬THE¬hCLEANLINESSv¬ Tpvsdf;!Cphefutlz-!3112;!Njojoh!Joevtusz!boe!Tvtubjobcmf!Efwfmpqnfou!jo!Lzshz{tubo OF¬ITS¬MAIN¬AGRICULTURAL¬AREA ¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬COULD¬BE¬

#UMULATIVE¬RISKS¬FROM¬+YRGYZ¬MINES¬THREATENING¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY

3ITE -AN )NDUCED¬2ISKS .ATURAL¬$ISASTER¬2ISKS #UMULATIVE 4RANSBOUNDARY¬2ISK

-AILUU 3UU HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH 3UMSAR HIGH MEDIUM HIGH HIGH HIGH 3HEKAFTAR HIGH HIGH HIGH MEDIUM +AN HIGH MEDIUM HIGH HIGH HIGH +ADAMJAI HIGH MEDIUM HIGH HIGH HIGH +HAIDARKAN MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM +YZYLDZHAR LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM 4YOO -OYUN LOW MEDIUM LOW MEDIUM

3OURCE¬AFTER¬$JENCHURAEV ¬¬¬UPDATED¬ON¬THE¬BASIS¬OF¬%.63%#¬CONSULTATIONS¬IN¬ &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

DISASTROUS¬ FOR¬ THE¬ COUNTRY ¬ !LTHOUGH¬ PERCEPTIONS¬ MAY¬ RESERVOIRS¬&OR¬EXAMPLE¬THERE¬ARE¬SIGNS¬OF¬HIGH¬RADIOACTIVITY¬ NOT¬REmECT¬REALITY¬THE¬ACTIONS¬TAKEN¬IN¬RESPONSE¬TO¬THOSE¬ LEVELS¬IN¬REEDS¬IN¬THE¬+AIRAKKUM¬RESERVOIR ¬,ANDSLIDES¬MAY¬ PERCEPTIONS¬WILL¬HAVE¬REAL¬CONSEQUENCES PUSH¬THE¬CONTENTS¬OF¬DUMPS¬INTO¬RIVERS¬)N¬!DRASMAN¬AND¬ #HKALOVSK¬OPEN¬TAILING¬DUMPS¬ARE¬EXPOSED¬TO¬WIND¬AND¬ 4O¬CONTINUE¬WITH¬URANIUM¬MINING ¬TAILING¬DAMS¬AT¬-AILUU ¬ WATER¬EROSION ¬AND¬TO¬mOODS¬AND¬LANDSLIDES¬&IELD¬VISITS¬TO¬ 3UU¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬3HEKAFTAR¬AND¬3UMSAR¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬AT¬ TAILING¬PONDS¬BY¬LOCAL¬AND¬INTERNATIONAL¬EXPERTS¬ORGANIZED¬ THE¬#HARKESAR¬MINE¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬AND¬IN¬THE¬COMPLEX¬ BY¬%.63%#¬HAVE¬CONlRMED¬THE¬LOW¬LEVEL¬OF¬PROTECTION¬WITH¬ IN¬ AROUND¬ +HUJAND¬ #HKALOVSK ¬ !DRASMAN¬ AND¬ 4ABOSHAR ¬ RESPECT¬TO¬CONTINUOUS¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬ACCIDENTAL¬POLLUTION¬ IN¬ 4AJIKISTANS¬3OGD¬ PROVINCE¬ HAVE¬ TRADITIONALLY¬ BEEN¬ THE¬ FOCUS¬ OF¬ CONCERN¬ -ANY¬ TAILING¬ DUMPS ¬ AS¬ WELL¬ AS¬ MUD¬ 4HE¬ +YRGYZ¬ GOVERNMENT¬ HAS¬ DONE¬ A¬ GREAT¬ DEAL¬ TO¬ DRAW¬ STORAGE¬ AREAS ¬ WERE¬ BUILT¬ DIRECTLY¬ ON¬ THE¬ mOOD¬ PLAINS¬ OF¬ THE¬INTERNATIONAL¬COMMUNITYS¬ATTENTION¬TO¬THE¬PROBLEMS¬OF¬ RIVERS¬)N¬SOME¬CASES¬PROTECTION¬DAMS¬WERE¬WASHED¬AWAY¬ -AILUU¬3UU¬AND¬HAS¬MANAGED¬TO¬OBTAIN¬7ORLD¬"ANK¬FUNDING¬ AND¬RADIONUCLIDES¬AND¬HEAVY¬METALS¬ENTERED¬THE¬RIVERS¬AND¬ TO¬CARRY¬OUT¬FEASIBILITY¬STUDIES¬AND¬MITIGATION¬WORK¬ON SITE¬

%.63%#¬#!3%¬345$9 2ADIOACTIVE¬WASTE¬IN¬4ABOSHAR ¬4AJIKISTAN

4HE¬4ABOSHAR¬URANIUM¬MINING¬SITE¬STANDS¬ON¬THE¬SOUTHERN¬ Sbejpbdujwf!xbtuf!jo!Ubcptibs EDGE¬OF¬THE¬+URAMIN¬-OUNTAINS ¬CLOSE¬TO¬THE¬5ZBEK 4AJIK¬ 2841 BORDER¬(AVING¬WORKED¬FROM¬¬TO¬ ¬IT¬IS¬NOW¬A¬HUGE¬ Hpsojbutlz ASSEMBLY¬ OF¬ NON OPERATIONAL¬ URANIUM¬ ORE¬ EXTRACTION¬ AND¬ TDIPPM PRODUCTION¬FACILITIES¬AND¬TAILINGS¬SPREAD¬OVER¬¬HECTARES¬ z p 4HE¬TOWN¬OF¬4ABOSHAR ¬WITH¬ITS¬ ¬INHABITANTS ¬IS¬ONLY¬A¬ t v s FEW¬KILOMETRES¬AWAY v 2626 L Pme Ubcptibs 4HE¬SITE¬CONSISTS¬OF¬THE¬NON REHABILITATED¬OPEN¬MINE ¬DISMAN Ubcptibs TLED¬PRODUCTION¬BUILDINGS¬AND¬THREE¬TAILINGS¬SITES¬STORING¬¬ Ufmnbo 2386 z 2412 p M¬TONNES¬OF¬LOW¬GRADE¬PROCESSED¬URANIUM¬ORE¬4AILINGS¬ARE¬ t b i EXPOSED¬TO¬WIND¬AND¬WATER¬EROSION¬AND¬EASILY¬ACCESSIBLE¬TO¬ d 23:1 2298 s PEOPLE¬AND¬GRAZING¬ANIMALS¬!¬SCHOOL¬AND¬A¬FEW¬FARMS¬STAND¬ B z IN¬THE¬MIDDLE¬OF¬THE¬FORMER¬MINING¬AREA Ublnbl p tl po ul V 4HE¬AVERAGE¬RADIATION¬BACKGROUND¬AROUND¬AND¬ON¬THE¬TOP¬ 2166 TAILINGS¬IS¬¬TIMES¬THE¬NORMAL¬BACKGROUND¬VALUE¬¬«2H¬ TO¬¬«2H ¬ ¬ 22:4 1 2 3!ln 4HERE¬ARE¬MANY¬SIGNS¬OF¬SCAVENGING¬FOR¬METAL¬AND¬REMOVAL¬OF¬ TAILING¬MATERIALS¬FOR¬CONSTRUCTION¬PURPOSES¬'ARDENS¬AND¬FARM Fmfwbujpo!jo!nfusft ING¬LAND¬ARE¬LOCATED¬CLOSE¬TO¬THE¬RADIOACTIVE¬TAILING¬PILE ¬AND¬A¬ Bqqspyjnbuf!mjnjut!pg!uif Ubcptibs!vsbojvn!njojoh!tjuf :11 LOCAL¬IRRIGATION¬CANAL¬LITERALLY¬CROSSES¬THE¬FOOTHILLS¬OF¬THE¬TAILING¬SITE¬ 2!111 Sbejpbdujwf!ubjmjoh!qjmft!)mpx. 2!211 PRIOR¬TO¬BEING¬USED¬BY¬FARMERS¬AND¬LOCAL¬PEOPLE¬DOWNSTREAM hsbef!vsbojvn!xbtuf!spdlt!boe fyusbdujpo!qjut* 2!311 2!411 ,ACK¬ OF¬ AWARENESS¬ AND¬ POVERTY¬ DRIVES¬ PEOPLE¬ TO¬ USE¬ THIS¬ Mfblbhft!pg!sbejpbdujwf 2!511 qbsujdmft!boe!sjtl!pg!xbufs 2!611 CONTAMINATED¬AREA¬-OREOVER¬EASY¬ACCESS¬AND¬GRAZING¬OF¬ dpoubnjobujpo DOMESTIC¬ SHEEP ¬ COWS ¬ AND¬ WILD¬ RODENTS ¬ ANIMALS¬ MAY¬ 2!711 Gpsnfs!njof!gbdjmjujft!)ejtnboumfe 2!811 INTRODUCE¬RADIOACTIVE¬POLLUTANTS¬AND¬HEAVY¬METALS¬INTO¬THE¬ ps!bcboepofe*

FOOD¬CHAIN¬AND¬AFFECT¬HUMANS¬AND¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬ UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!BHFODJFT DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT!PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ- PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ 2ADIOACTIVE¬ PARTICLES¬ FROM¬ BADLY¬ MANAGED¬ ABANDONED¬ NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 SITES¬ ARE¬ EXPOSED¬ TO¬ THE¬ AIR¬ AND¬ CAN¬ BE¬ TRANSPORTED¬ BY¬ THE¬ STRONG¬ WINDS¬ PREVALENT¬ IN¬ THIS¬ AREA¬ TO¬ DENSELY¬ POPU OF¬MATERIALS¬TO¬GROUNDWATER¬CARRIES¬RADIOACTIVE¬POL LATED¬ AREAS¬ 7ATER¬ EROSION¬ BY¬ HEAVY¬ RAINFALL¬ AND¬ LEACHING LUTANTS¬INTO¬IRRIGATION¬SYSTEMS¬AND¬RIVERS

3OURCE¬%.63%#¬lELD¬VISITS¬n¬5RANIUM¬-INING¬AND¬0ROCESSING¬4RACK ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

Joevtusjbm!qpmmvujpo!boe!xbtuf!iputqput UBMBT jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz DIV

Upluphvm LZSHZ[TUBO Sftfswpjs Obszo LB[BLITUBO Dibulbm Sftfswpjs ijl sd UFSFLTBZ ij D LZ[ZME[IBS po KBMBM.BCBE bs oh TIFLBGUBS UBTI.LVNJS Ubtilfou b TVNTBS Dibsebsb Bi ZBOHFCBU NBJMVV.TVV Sftfswpjs DIBSLFTBS DIBEBL UBTILFOU Obnbohbo Kbmbm.Bcbe T zs BMNBMZL .E Boejkbo Tzsebszb b VZHVSTBZ s z BESBTNBO b b b NJOHCVMBL Boejkbo L sb.Ebsz zb bs PJM!GJFME Sftfswpjs .E UBCPTIBS zs Pti Hvmjtubo T TZSEBSZB Gfshibob Livkboe V[CFLJTUBO CFLBCBE UFP. LBOJCBEBN DIBVSBZ NPZVO LBO Kj{bli JTGBSB EFHNBZ LBEBNKBJ HBGVSPW TIVSBC KJ[BLI Cbulfo TPHE DILBMPWTL PTI TVMVLUB CBULFO LIBJEBSLBO v Lz{zmt [fsbwtibo UBKJLJTUBO DIJOB [FSBWTIBO BO[PC

Qppsmz!nbobhfe!xbtuf!tjuft Sbejpbdujwf!nbufsjbm!qspdfttjoh 1 61 211 261!ln boe!tupsbhf!tjuft Qftujdjeft!boe!ib{bsepvt!difnjdbmt Vsbovjn!ubjmjoh!ps!sbejpbdujwf Dmptfe Njojoh!ubjmjoh!qpoet!boe!qjmft nbufsjbm!qspdfttjoh vsbovjn!njof Nvojdjqbm!xbtuf Qpmmvujpo!qbuixbzt Usbotcpvoebsz!boe!mpdbm!sjtl!pg!tpjm- Qpmmvujoh!joevtusjft bjs!boe!xbufs!dpoubnjobujpo UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF Nfubmmvshjdbm!joevtusz Tqjmmt!boe!sfqpsufe!joevtusjbm!bddjefout BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT!PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS BSFB! PG! JUT! BVUIPSJUZ-! PS! EFMJOFBUJPO! PG! JUT! GSPOUJFST! BOE! CPVOEBSJFT/ Pjm!boe!dpbm!qspevdujpo Bsfbt!qspof!up!bjs!qpmmvujpo NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[ )bunptqifsjd!jowfstjpot* VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116

4AJIKISTAN¬RECENTLY¬ STARTED¬ MAKING¬ OVERTURES¬ TO¬ INTERNA OTHER¬TOXIC¬SUBSTANCES¬-OREOVER¬MERCURY¬HAS¬BEEN¬STOLEN¬ TIONAL¬BODIES¬ON¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬RADIOACTIVE¬WASTE¬DEPOSITS¬ FROM¬THE¬+HAIDARKAN¬PLANT¬ON¬SEVERAL¬OCCASIONS¬3OME¬¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬HAS¬SO¬FAR¬BEEN¬SLOWER¬TO¬RAISE¬INTERNATIONAL¬ KG¬OF¬THIS¬HIGHLY¬TOXIC¬METAL¬SEEM¬TO¬HAVE¬FOUND¬AN¬ILLEGAL¬ AWARENESS¬OF¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬URANIUM¬MINING¬WASTE¬ON¬ITS¬OWN¬ MARKET¬IN¬THE¬AREA¬4HE¬5ZBEK¬AUTHORITIES¬ALSO¬SEE¬THE¬+A TERRITORY¬COMPARED¬WITH¬FACILITIES¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬SEE¬ABOVE ¬ DAMJAI¬ANTIMONY¬PLANT¬AS¬A¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬PROBLEM ALTHOUGH¬IT¬DOES¬RECOGNIZE¬THE¬THREAT¬FROM¬BOTH¬3TATE¬#OM MITTEE ¬¬ ¬'OLDSTEIN¬AND¬-AKAROV ¬ ¬ )N¬4AJIKISTAN ¬CHEMICAL¬AND¬TEXTILE¬INDUSTRIES¬AROUND¬)SFARA¬ AND¬THE¬CHEMICAL¬WASTE¬DEPOSIT¬OF¬+ANIBADAM¬HAVE¬BEEN¬ !PART¬FROM¬ACTIVITIES¬RELATED¬TO¬URANIUM¬MINING¬AND¬THEIR¬ IDENTIlED¬AS¬HOTSPOTS¬IN¬THE¬3OGD¬PROVINCE¬4HE¬+ANIBADAM¬ HAZARDOUS¬WASTES ¬THERE¬ARE¬THREE¬MAIN¬CENTRES¬OF¬CON TOXIC¬WASTE¬DEPOSIT¬FOR¬OBSOLETE¬PESTICIDES ¬POTENTIALLY¬REP CERN¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬THE¬ANTIMONY¬AND¬MERCURY¬MINING¬AND¬ RESENTS¬A¬SIMILAR¬SITUATION¬TO¬THE¬RADIOACTIVE¬TAILING¬DUMPS¬ PROCESSING¬PLANTS¬OF¬+ADAMJAI¬¬AND¬+HAIDARKAN¬AND¬THE¬ORE¬ DESCRIBED¬ABOVE ¬WITH¬UNPROTECTED¬DEPOSITS¬VULNERABLE¬TO¬ PLANT¬IN¬THE¬3UMSAR¬6ALLEY¬4HE¬SOIL¬IS¬CONTAMINATED¬WITH¬ NATURAL¬HAZARDS ¬LOCATED¬IN¬THE¬VICINITY¬OF¬A¬BORDER ¬WATER HEAVY¬METALS¬AS¬WITH¬THE¬+AN¬/RE¬MANAGEMENT¬PLANT ¬AND¬ WAY¬AND¬TOWN¬$URING¬THE¬PRELIMINARY¬%.63%#¬MISSION¬IN¬ &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

%.63%#¬#!3%¬345$9 2ISK¬OF¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬POLLUTION¬FROM¬+ADAMJAI¬)NDUSTRIAL¬!REA ¬+YRGYZSTAN

4HE¬+ADAMJAI¬ANTIMONY¬PLANT¬IN¬3OUTHERN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬STANDS¬ Ibolj{ V[CFLJTUBO Zbohjfs CLOSE¬TO¬THE¬5ZBEK¬BORDER¬AND¬VERY¬NEAR¬THE¬TOWN¬OF¬THE¬ Zbohjcbe Mbhbo Dijnjpo Zbjmnb SAME¬NAME¬!NTIMONY¬PRODUCTION¬STARTED¬HERE¬IN¬THE¬S¬ USING¬ LOCAL¬ ORE¬ DEPOSITS¬ 4HE¬ PLANT¬ ANNUALLY¬ CONSUMES¬ Njoebs Obwlbu Nbslb{ ¬TONNES¬OF¬ORE¬)N¬ ¬THE¬ANNUAL¬PRODUCTION¬ Wvbejm OF¬ANTIMONY¬WAS¬ ¬TONNES¬A¬YEAR¬7ITH¬GRADUAL¬ Ekboj.Bzbm DEPLETION¬OF¬THE¬ANTIMONY¬CONTENT¬OF¬LOCAL¬ORE ¬RAW¬MATERIALS¬ UBJMJOH!QPOET ARE¬NOW¬PURCHASED¬FROM¬2USSIA¬AND¬4AJIKISTAN QSPDFTTJOH Lbebnkbj QMBOU 2:58 /RE¬WASTE¬DUMPS¬ARE¬EXPOSED¬TO¬EROSION¬n¬BY¬RAIN¬AND¬WIND¬ LZSHZ[TUBO Ekjefmjl 3122

n¬RESULTING¬IN¬CONTAMINATION¬OF¬SOIL¬AND¬WATER¬RESOURCES¬BY¬ Psp{cflpw T i b Lz{zm.Cvmbl POLLUTANTS¬7ORSE¬STILL¬AN¬EARTHQUAKE¬COULD¬CAUSE¬A¬DAM¬TO¬ i Ubnbtib jn Lvmevl b Lftlfo.Ubti COLLAPSE¬(YDROMETALLURGY¬PROCESS¬TAILS¬ARE¬COLLECTED¬IN¬A¬SE se bo Hmbdjbm!mblf!pvucvstu!gmppe RIES¬OF¬TAILING¬PONDS¬FOUR¬TO¬SEVEN¬KM¬AWAY¬FROM¬THE¬PLANT¬4HE¬ V[CFLJTUBO )jo!2::9-!211!gbubmjujft* Tibijnbsebo SEVEN¬TAILINGS¬ACCOUNT¬FOR¬A¬TOTAL¬AREA¬OF¬ ¬SQ¬METRES fodmbwf Lbsb.Tipsp 4AILING¬PONDS¬HAVE¬PROTECTIVE¬COVERAGE¬AT¬THE¬BOTTOM¬AND¬ 4922 SIDES ¬BUT¬SEVERAL¬OF¬THEM¬ARE¬LEAKING¬DUE¬TO¬CRACKS¬IN¬THE¬ 1 21 31!ëí BOTTOM¬LINING¬AND¬INADEQUATE¬MAINTENANCE¬,EAKS¬OF¬AGGRES Fmfwbujpo!jo!nfusft SIVE¬SUBSTANCES¬AFFECT¬AND¬ENDANGER¬SOIL¬AND¬WATER¬RESOURCES¬ Ib{bsepvt!joevtusjbm!xbtuf 611 2!111 AND¬POSE¬A¬HIGH¬RISK¬OF¬CONTAMINATION¬SULPHURIC¬ACID ¬SODIUM¬ jo!Lbebnkbj 2!611 SULPHIDE ¬SODIUM¬CARBONATE ¬ARSENIC ¬ANTIMONY ¬LEAD ¬COPPER ¬ Lbebnkbj!boujnpoz!qspdfttjoh qmbou!boe!ubjmjoh!qpoet;!sjtl!pg 3!111 MANGANESE ¬IRON ¬FOR¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬LOCAL¬PEOPLE bjscpsof!qpmmvujpo-!tpjm!boe!usbot. 4!111 cpvoebsz!xbufs!dpoubnjobujpo 0ARTICLE¬EMISSION¬IS¬ANOTHER¬PROBLEM¬!CCORDING¬TO¬INFOR Mfblbhf!pg!ib{bsepvt tvctubodft MATION¬PROVIDED¬BY¬THE¬PLANTS¬MANAGEMENT ¬A¬SIGNIlCANT¬ UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!BHFODJFT PROPORTION¬OF¬THE¬+ADAMJAI¬¬POPULATION¬IS¬EXPOSED¬TO¬AIR DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT!PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ- PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ BORNE¬POLLUTION¬WIND¬BLOWN¬SUBSTANCES¬FROM¬WASTE¬TAILINGS¬ NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 AND¬INDUSTRIAL¬EMISSIONS

4HE¬INDUSTRY¬HAS¬PLANS¬FOR¬SITE¬REHABILITATION¬AND¬RECONSTRUC DRAINAGE¬SYSTEMS ¬BUT¬NO¬FUNDING¬HAS¬SO¬FAR¬BEEN¬FORTH TION¬NEW¬PROTECTIVE¬COVERAGE ¬CONSOLIDATION¬OF¬DAMS ¬NEW¬ COMING¬TO¬IMPLEMENT¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬MITIGATION¬PLANS

3OURCE¬%.63%#¬lELD¬VISITS¬n¬)NDUSTRIAL¬&ACILITIES¬AND¬(AZARDOUS¬7ASTE¬4RACK4RACK

3EPTEMBER¬¬THE¬4AJIK¬AUTHORITIES¬ACKNOWLEDGED¬THAT¬ TAMINATION¬HAS¬BEEN¬OBSERVED¬NEAR¬OIL¬FACILITIES ¬NOTABLY¬THE¬ THE¬+ANIBADAM¬DEPOSIT¬WAS¬A¬RISK¬FOR¬REGIONAL¬SECURITY¬ -INGBULAK¬OIL¬lELD¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬THE¬PRODUCTION¬PLANTS¬IN¬ !NDIJAN¬AND¬&ERGHANA¬CITIES¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬AND¬AT¬THE¬OIL¬ )N¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ THE¬ "EKABAD¬ METALLURGY¬ PLANT ¬ INDUSTRIAL¬ RElNERY¬IN¬*ALAL !BAD¬ ACTIVITY¬IN¬THE¬CITY¬OF¬&ERGHANA¬AND¬THE¬!LMALYK¬METALLURGY¬ PLANT¬HAVE¬BEEN¬IDENTIlED¬AMONG¬KEY¬PROBLEM¬ACTIVITIES¬ %VEN¬THOUGH¬PAST¬SPILLS¬AND¬ACCIDENTS¬HAVE¬CREATED¬TENSIONS¬ )N¬PARTICULAR¬4AJIKISTAN¬CONSIDERS¬THE¬"EKABAD¬AND¬!LMA BETWEEN¬THE¬COUNTRIES¬OF¬THE¬REGION ¬OFlCIALS¬DO¬NOT¬CONSIST LYK¬PLANTS¬TO¬BE¬A¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬PROBLEM¬"UT¬IN¬PRACTICE¬ ENTLY¬REGARD¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬POLLUTION¬BY¬EXISTING¬FACILITIES¬AS¬A¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬PREFERS¬NOT¬TO¬OVERPLAY¬ITS¬HAND¬WITH¬RESPECT¬TO¬ SECURITY¬PROBLEM¬/NLY¬IN¬A¬VERY¬FEW¬CASES¬HAS¬INDUSTRIAL¬ACTIVITY¬ THIS¬PLANT¬FOR¬FEAR¬OF¬LAYING¬ITSELF¬OPEN¬TO¬CRITICISM¬BY¬THE¬ BECOME¬A¬SECURITY¬ISSUE¬4HE¬FACT¬THAT¬THE¬ACTIVITIES¬GIVING¬RISE¬ 5ZBEK¬AUTHORITIES¬REGARDING¬THE¬POLLUTION¬CAUSED¬BY¬THE¬ TO¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CONCERN¬ARE¬OFTEN¬ESSENTIAL¬TO¬THE¬ECONOMY¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬!LUMINIUM¬SMELTER¬IN¬4URSUNZADE TOO¬n¬AS¬WITH¬REGIONS¬SUCH¬AS¬"ATKEN¬n¬CERTAINLY¬CONTRIBUTES¬TO¬ THE¬CAUTIOUS¬APPROACH¬TO¬INDUSTRIAL¬POLLUTION¬AND¬ASSOCIATED¬ 4URNING¬OUR¬ATTENTION¬TO¬OIL¬AND¬GAS¬OPERATIONS ¬SOIL¬CON ISSUES¬GENERALLY¬ADOPTED¬BY¬THE¬VARIOUS¬COUNTRIES¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

(OWEVER¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬HAVE¬SIGNED¬AGREEMENTS¬ 3EVERAL¬FACTORS¬n¬POPULATION¬DENSITY¬IN¬DISASTER PRONE¬AREAS ¬ ON¬POLLUTANT¬EMISSIONS¬FROM¬THE¬4AJIK¬!LUMINIUM¬PLANT¬AND¬ HIGH¬OVERALL¬POPULATION¬GROWTH ¬POVERTY ¬LAND¬AND¬WATER¬USE ¬ THE¬5ZBEK¬"EKABADS¬METALLURGY¬AND¬CEMENT¬PLANTS¬IN¬AN¬ FAILURE¬TO¬COMPLY¬WITH¬BUILDING¬CODES ¬AND¬GLOBAL¬CLIMATE¬ EFFORT¬TO¬MANAGE¬RISKS¬ASSOCIATED¬WITH¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬EN CHANGE¬n¬MAKE¬THE¬REGION¬PARTICULARLY¬VULNERABLE¬TO¬NATURAL¬ VIRONMENTAL¬POLLUTION¬4HIS¬SUGGESTS¬THAT¬THE¬TWO¬COUNTRIES¬ AS¬WELL¬AS¬MAN MADE¬HAZARDS HAVE¬UNDERSTOOD¬THE¬CONNECTION¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ STRESS¬AND¬SECURITY¬5.$0¬ ¬&OR¬A¬NUMBER¬OF¬YEARS¬ !CCORDING¬TO¬ESTIMATES¬BY¬/#(! ¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS¬HAVE¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬HAS¬HAD¬A¬JOINT¬COMMISSION¬WITH¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬ KILLED¬ABOUT¬ ¬PEOPLE¬AND¬AFFECTED¬SOME¬¬MILLION¬ PRIMARILY¬TO¬DEAL¬WITH¬-AILUU 3UU¬)N¬¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬ OTHERS¬NEARLY¬¬OF¬THE¬TOTAL¬POPULATION ¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ -INISTRIES¬OF¬+YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬4AJIKISTAN¬ADOPTED¬AN¬AGREE OVER¬THE¬PAST¬DECADE¬4HE¬INCIDENCE¬OF¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS¬ MENT¬ON¬OVERALL¬COOPERATION¬ON¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬SECURITY¬)N¬ALL¬ INVOLVING¬CASUALTIES¬AMONG¬INHABITANTS¬SETTLED¬IN¬RISK PRONE¬ THE¬COUNTRIES¬-INISTRIES¬OF¬%MERGENCY¬3ITUATIONS¬SYSTEMATI AREAS¬HAS¬BEEN¬RISING¬IN¬RECENT¬YEARS¬DUE¬TO¬THE¬INCREASE¬IN¬ CALLY¬ASSESS¬THE¬RISKS¬ASSOCIATED¬WITH¬INDUSTRIAL¬ACCIDENTS¬ EXTREME¬WEATHER¬EVENTS¬AND¬INADEQUATE¬PREPAREDNESS AND¬DRAW¬UP¬THEIR¬RESPECTIVE¬EMERGENCY¬PLANS¬(OWEVER¬ THESE¬ARE¬STILL¬AD HOC¬ARRANGEMENTS¬WITHOUT¬ANY¬REGIONAL¬ )N¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ALONE ¬BETWEEN¬¬AND¬ ¬THE¬ FRAMEWORK¬FOR¬SYSTEMATIC¬MONITORING ¬COMMUNICATION¬AND¬ CUMULATIVE¬ DAMAGE¬ FROM¬ NATURAL¬ DISASTERS¬ AMOUNTED¬ TO¬ INTERVENTION¬TO¬DEAL¬WITH¬THE¬ISSUES¬RELATED¬TO¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬ MORE¬THAN¬53¬¬M ¬WITH¬MORE¬THAN¬¬PEOPLE¬KILLED¬AND¬ INDUSTRIAL¬POLLUTION¬AS¬A¬COMPREHENSIVE¬WHOLE TENS¬OF¬THOUSANDS¬AFFECTED¬4HE¬REGIONS¬MOST¬FREQUENTLY¬ HIT¬BY¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ARE¬THE¬*ALAL #ROSS CUTTING¬ISSUES !BAD¬AND¬/SH¬PROVINCES¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬THE¬3OGD¬PROVINCE¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬AND¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬PROVINCE¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬/N¬AVER .ATURAL¬$ISASTERS AGE ¬APPROXIMATELY¬¬OF¬ALL¬THE¬DISASTERS¬MOSTLY¬HYDRO METEOROLOGICAL¬HAZARDS ¬OCCUR¬BETWEEN¬!PRIL¬AND¬!UGUST #ENTRAL¬!SIA¬IS¬A¬DISASTER PRONE¬AREA ¬EXPOSED¬TO¬VARIOUS¬ NATURAL¬HAZARDS¬SUCH¬AS¬mOODS ¬DROUGHTS ¬AVALANCHES ¬ROCK -ANY¬ DISASTERS ¬ SUCH¬ AS¬ GLACIAL¬ LAKE¬ OUTmOW¬ mOODS ¬ SLIDES¬AND¬EARTHQUAKES¬)T¬IS¬ALSO¬VULNERABLE¬TO¬MAN MADE¬ EARTHQUAKES ¬MUDmOWS¬AND¬mOODS¬ARE¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬IN¬ DISASTERS¬RELATED¬TO¬INDUSTRIAL¬ACTIVITY¬AND¬THE¬RADIOACTIVE¬OR¬ NATURE¬4HEY¬CAN¬AFFECT¬SECURITY¬AND¬LIVELIHOODS¬DIRECTLY¬AND¬ CHEMICAL¬DUMPS¬INHERITED¬FROM¬THE¬3OVIET¬PERIOD¬ INDIRECTLY¬!N¬EXAMPLE¬IS¬THE¬¬3HAHIMARDAN¬STONE MUD ICE¬mOOD ¬WHICH¬OCCURRED¬WHEN¬A¬HIGH¬MOUNTAIN¬GLACIAL¬LAKE¬ .ATURAL¬$ISASTERS¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY IN¬THE¬!LAI¬-OUNTAINS¬OF¬+YRGYZSTAN¬RELEASED¬A¬HUGE¬VOLUME¬ OF¬WATER ¬SWEEPING¬AWAY¬HOMES ¬BRIDGES ¬ROADS¬AND¬OTHER¬ 4HE¬ MOST¬ DESTRUCTIVE¬ NATURAL¬ DISASTERS¬ OF¬ THE¬ PAST¬ INFRASTRUCTURE¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬AND¬SEVERELY¬AFFECTED¬ ¬YEARS¬INCLUDE¬TORRENTIAL¬RAIN¬AND¬AN¬EARTHQUAKE¬IN¬ BOTH¬+YRGYZ¬AND¬5ZBEK¬TERRITORY¬)2#& ¬5.%#% ¬ /SH¬AND¬*ALAL !BAD¬IN¬¬WHICH¬DESTROYED¬ ¬ HECTARES¬OF¬AGRICULTURAL¬LANDS¬AND¬AFFECTED¬ ¬PEO 4HE¬POOR¬WHO¬MAKE¬UP¬THE¬MAJORITY¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEYS¬ PLE¬53¬¬M¬DIRECT¬DAMAGE ¬HEAVY¬RAINFALL¬IN¬¬ POPULATION ¬ARE¬MOST¬VULNERABLE¬TO¬DISASTERS¬AND¬LARGELY¬AF 53¬¬M¬ECONOMIC¬LOSSES ¬LARGE SCALE¬LANDSLIDES¬ FECTED¬BY¬THEM¬-OST¬OF¬THE¬RURAL¬POOR¬DEPEND¬ON¬RIVER¬mOWS¬ AND¬MUDmOWS¬IN¬¬AND¬¬IN¬THE¬/SH¬AND¬*ALAL FOR¬AGRICULTURE¬AND¬THEIR¬DOMESTIC¬WATER¬SUPPLY¬4HEY¬CON !BAD¬PROVINCES ¬WHICH¬KILLED¬MORE¬THAN¬¬PEOPLE¬ SEQUENTLY¬LIVE¬CLOSE¬TO¬THE¬RIVERBANKS¬&LOODS¬DIRECTLY¬AFFECT¬ AND¬MADE¬A¬FURTHER¬ ¬HOMELESS¬A¬GLACIAL¬LAKE¬ THEIR¬SECURITY ¬IMPACTING¬ON¬SETTLEMENTS¬AND¬LIVELIHOOD OUTBURST¬mOOD¬IN¬¬3HAHIMARDAN ¬WHICH¬KILLED¬MORE¬ THAN¬¬PEOPLE¬AND¬CAUSED¬DAMAGE¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ !S¬WE¬HAVE¬ALREADY¬SEEN ¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS¬MAY¬BE¬A¬SERIOUS¬ AND¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬ WIDESPREAD¬ mOODS¬ IN¬ *ALAL !BAD¬ IN¬ THREAT¬TO¬SENSITIVE¬INDUSTRIAL¬PLANTS¬AND¬WASTE¬DEPOSITS¬-A ¬CAUSED¬BY¬TORRENTIAL¬RAINS ¬WHICH¬DAMAGED¬AN¬ JOR¬DISASTERS¬AFFECTING¬THESE¬FACILITIES¬COULD¬HAVE¬DRAMATIC¬ ESTIMATED¬ ¬HOMES¬AND¬PUBLIC¬BUILDINGS¬53¬¬ CONSEQUENCES¬FOR¬THE¬LIVELIHOODS¬OF¬LARGE¬AREAS M¬DIRECT¬DAMAGE ¬mOODS¬AND¬MUDmOWS¬IN¬THE¬4AJIK¬PART¬ OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬IN¬ ¬¬AND¬ ¬WHICH¬ 4HUS¬EVEN¬THOUGH¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS¬USUALLY¬CALL¬FOR¬SOLIDARITY¬ LED¬TO¬WIDESPREAD¬DAMAGE AND¬COOPERATION ¬SUCH¬EVENTS¬MAY¬STRAIN¬RELATIONS¬BETWEEN¬ NEIGHBOURING¬STATES ¬ESPECIALLY¬IF¬ONE¬PARTY¬CAN¬BLAME¬AN OTHER¬FOR¬TAKING¬INADEQUATE¬PREVENTIVE¬MEASURES¬ALWAYS¬ 3OURCE¬OFlCIAL¬NATIONAL¬DATA¬5.%#% ¬ ASSUMING¬THEY¬WERE¬POSSIBLE &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

/N¬ THE¬ OTHER¬ HAND¬ EVENTS¬ OF¬ THIS¬ SORT¬ AND¬ THE¬ NEED¬ TO¬ DISASTER¬RESPONSE¬INSTITUTIONS¬AND¬THE¬COMMUNITIES¬IN¬THE¬ PREVENT¬THEM ¬OFFER¬A¬GENUINE¬OPPORTUNITY¬FOR¬COOPERATION¬ AREAS¬AT¬RISK¬CAN¬FURTHER¬ENHANCE¬THE¬BENElTS¬OF¬COOPERA BETWEEN¬THE¬RELEVANT¬AUTHORITIES ¬NOTABLY¬THE¬THREE¬-INIS TION ¬ PARTICULARLY¬ FOR¬ INDUSTRIAL¬ SITES¬ OR¬ RADIOACTIVE¬ WASTE¬ TRIES¬OF¬%MERGENCY¬3ITUATIONS¬)NVOLVING¬LOCAL¬AUTHORITIES ¬ DEPOSITS¬WITH¬A¬HIGH¬RISK¬OF¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬POLLUTION¬

Dmjnbuf!dibohf!boe!obuvsbm!ejtbtufs jnqbdut!jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz LZSHZ[TUBO jot ub vo Upluphvm Np Sftfswpjs n Ob lf szo Dibulbm Qt Sftfswpjs t Tqsjoh!gmppet LB[BLITUBO ijl jo jsd ub 3114.3116 i vo D p Nvegmpx m N ulb Nvegmpxt 2::9 Dibsebsb Ubtilfou ib Gmppe D po 2::5-!2::9-!3116 Sftfswpjs bs 2::5 oh b V[CFLJTUBO Bi Obnbohbo Mboetmjeft t Gmppe Kbmbm.Bcbe 2::3 jo 2::5 oub b pv bsz N Boejkbo Lbsb.E Tzsebszb jo sbn Nvegmpx Boejkbo Lv b T 2::: sz bob D bm Sftfswpjs z b hi bo s s . .E f E zs G Pti b T GFSHIBOB!WBMMFZ s Lbjsbllvn Hvmjtubo z Mboetmjeft b Sftfswpjs Gfshibob Livkboe 3115

Kj{bli Gmppe Tfwfsf!espvhiu 2::: 2:::.3111 Cbulfo Hmbdjbm!mblf Nvegmpx pvucvstu!gmppe 2::: 2::: voubjot j Np zmtv pvoubjot Bmb Lz{ [fsbwtibo Uvslftubo N

UBKJLJTUBO bnjst Uif Q

Upqphsbqiz 1 61 211261 311!ln Mpxmboet!boe!qjfenpou!bsfbt Npvoubjopvt!sfhjpot!)bcpwf!2!611!nfusft* Qpufoujbm!jnqbdut!pg!dmjnbuf!dibohf Eftfsujgjdbujpo!)eftfsut-!tfnj.bsje-!boe!bsje!mboet!fyqbotjpo* Izespnfufpspmphjdbm!ib{bset Dibohft!jo!qspevdujwjuz!boe!fmfwbujpobm!tijgu!jo!bmqjof!cjpejwfstjuz Sjtl!pg!gmppejoh Sjtl!pg!nvegmpxt!boe!mboetmjeft Jodsfbtf!jo!ifbmui!wvmofsbcjmjuz Upssfoujbm!sbjogbmmt Tqsfbe!pg!nbmbsjb!up!ijhifs!bmujuveft

Jnqbdu!pg!ijhi!ufnqfsbuvsft!boe Sbqje!nfmujoh!pg!hmbdjfst!boe!jdf!dbqt espvhiu!po!gppe!qspevdujpo!boe!ifbmui Nvegmpx Dibohft!jo!topx!dpwfs-!qfsnbgsptu-!boe!joufotjgjdbujpo!pg!topx!nfmu 2::: Nbkps!sfdfou!obuvsbm!ejtbtufst!boe!zfbs!pg!fwfou Sfevdujpo!pg!tvnnfs!sjwfs!gmpx Fttfoujbm!fbsuirvblft Fbsuirvblf!fqjdfoufst!efqjdufe Jogsbtusvduvsf!voefs!uisfbu!pg!eftusvdujpo!gspn!obuvsbm!ejtbtufst gspn!uif!jotusvnfoubm!sfdpset Joevtusjbm!tjuft-!ebnt!boe!jssjhbujpo!ofuxpslt Nbhojuvef!po!Sjdiufs!tdbmf

UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ-!PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ 8!up!9 7!up!8 6!up!7 NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬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hWJPMKLX VERKISRXLIRSVXL

)MPACT¬OF¬GLOBAL¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE

/NE¬ FACTOR¬ THAT¬ MUST¬ BE¬ CONSIDERED¬ WHEN¬ LOOKING¬ AT¬THE¬REGION¬IN¬TERMS¬OF¬THE¬LINKS¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRON Usfoet!jo!sfhjpobm!bwfsbhf!tvsgbdf!ufnqfsbuvsf jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz!bsfb MENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬IS¬THE¬IMPACT¬OF¬THE¬GLOBAL¬CLIMATE¬ CHANGE¬ON¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬IN¬GENERAL¬AND¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ Ejggfsfodft!jo!ufnqfsbuvsf!jo!±D gspn!2:72.2::1!nfbo!wbmvf VALLEY¬IN¬PARTICULAR¬ 1/86

"Y¬MODIFYING¬THE¬LIVELIHOODS¬OF¬PEOPLE ¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE¬ 1/61 MAY¬HAVE¬AN¬IMPORTANT¬SECURITY¬DIMENSION¬ESPECIALLY¬ 1/36 IN¬CONJUNCTION¬WITH¬OTHER¬AGGRAVATING¬FACTORS¬)N¬THE¬ &ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬IT¬IS¬LIKELY¬THAT¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE INDUCED¬ 1 IMPACTS¬WILL¬PRIMARILY¬AFFECT¬SECTORS¬RELATED¬TO¬WATER¬ .!1/36 AND¬AGRICULTURE .!1/61 %VEN¬THOUGH¬OVERALL¬CLIMATE¬SCENARIOS¬FOR¬!SIA¬ARE¬FAR¬ FROM¬ACHIEVING¬SUBREGIONAL¬PRECISION ¬THEY¬OFFER¬A¬BASIS¬ .!1/86 2:112:21 2:31 2:41 2:51 2:61 2:71 2:81 2:91 2::1 FOR¬ASSESSING¬THE¬POTENTIAL¬IMPACTS¬OF¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE¬ Qptjujwf!efwjbujpo!)jo!±D* Ofhbujwf!efwjbujpo!)jo!±D* AND¬APPROPRIATE¬POLICIES¬AND¬COUNTER MEASURES¬4HE¬ MAJOR¬IMPACT¬OF¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE¬IN¬ARID¬AND¬SEMI ARID¬ Tpvsdf;!JQDD!ebub!ejtusjcvujpo!dfousf!iuuq;00jqdd.eed/dsv/vfb/bd/vl

#LIMATE¬CHANGE¬SCENARIOS¬FOR¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA

/N¬ THE¬ BASIS¬ OF¬ THE¬ MAGNITUDE¬ AND¬ SEVERITY¬ OF¬ THE¬ PROBLEMS¬BECOMING¬PREVALENT ¬THE¬LIKELIHOOD¬OF¬REGIONAL¬ PROJECTED¬ GLOBAL¬ WARMING¬ WE¬ MAY¬ DRAW¬ UP¬ SCENARIOS¬ DISPUTES¬OVER¬SCARCE ¬VITAL¬RESOURCES¬WOULD¬INCREASE ¬RELATED¬TO¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬IN¬THE¬ 3OUTH %ASTERN¬MOUNTAINOUS¬PART¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ !¬ WARM¬ AND¬ WET¬ SCENARIO¬ WOULD¬ IN¬ GENERAL¬ BE¬ MILDLY¬ DAMAGING¬ )N¬ THIS¬ CASE¬ TEMPERATURES¬ WOULD¬ INCREASE¬ 4HE¬LEAST¬FAVOURABLE¬SCENARIO¬WOULD¬BE¬HOTTER¬AND¬DRIER ¬ SLIGHTLY ¬WITH¬AN¬EVEN¬INCREASE¬IN¬PRECIPITATION ¬AND¬YEAR WITH¬EXTREME¬TEMPERATURES ¬SEVERE¬DROUGHT ¬INITIALLY¬IN TO YEAR¬WEATHER¬VARIABILITY¬FALLING¬SHORT¬OF¬CRITICAL¬LEVELS¬ CREASED¬WATER¬mOW¬FOLLOWED¬BY¬SEVERE¬WATER¬SHORTAGES ¬ 7ATER¬ RESOURCES¬ ACCORDING¬ TO¬ SOME¬ FORECASTS¬ WOULD¬ RAPID¬SPREAD¬OF¬DESERTS¬IN¬LOWLANDS¬AND¬MEDIUM ALTITUDE¬ GO¬ON¬DECLINING¬BUT ¬IN¬GENERAL ¬THE¬WATER¬SUPPLY¬TO¬THE¬ MOUNTAINS ¬ AND¬ A¬ STEEP¬ DECLINE¬ IN¬ THE¬ PRODUCTIVITY¬ OF¬ POPULATION¬AND¬ECONOMY¬WOULD¬NOT¬BE¬THREATENED¬4HE¬ VITAL¬NATURAL¬GRASSLANDS¬4HIS¬WOULD¬LEAD¬TO¬DIMINISHED¬ CONSEQUENCES¬OF¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS¬WOULD¬INCREASE ¬AFFECT ECOSYSTEM¬SERVICES ¬INCREASED¬SUSCEPTIBILITY¬TO¬EXTREME¬ ING¬VULNERABLE¬COMMUNITIES¬ESPECIALLY¬THE¬RURAL¬POOR ¬AND¬ EVENTS ¬EROSION ¬AND¬DIRECT¬IMPACTS¬ON¬ECONOMIC¬SEC SOME¬REGIONS¬AT¬LEVELS¬HIGHER¬THAN¬UNDER¬PRESENT¬CLIMATIC¬ TORS¬ AND¬ HUMAN¬ HEALTH¬ 7ITHOUT¬ ADEQUATE¬ ADAPTATION¬ CONDITIONS¬4HERE¬WOULD¬BE¬NO¬SIGNIlCANT¬CHANGE¬IN¬FOOD¬ MEASURES ¬ FOOD¬ AND¬ AGRICULTURAL¬ PRODUCTION¬ WOULD¬ BE¬ PRODUCTION¬AND¬AGRICULTURE ¬ALTHOUGH¬AN¬OVERALL¬DECLINE¬ SEVERELY¬JEOPARDIZED¬6ALUABLE¬ALPINE¬ECOSYSTEMS ¬INCLUD IS¬POSSIBLE¬%XISTING¬DISPUTES¬OVER¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES¬ARE¬ ING¬GENETIC¬RESOURCES¬AND¬ENDANGERED¬SPECIES ¬WOULD¬ UNLIKELY¬TO¬BE¬REDUCED¬UNDER¬THIS¬SCENARIO SUFFER¬INCREASING¬PRESSURE¬SOME¬OF¬THEM¬COULD¬BE¬LOST¬ 4HE¬MASSIVE¬DEGRADATION¬OF¬MOUNTAIN¬GLACIERS¬WOULD¬SE 5NDER¬ BOTH¬ SCENARIOS ¬ TIMELY¬ ADEQUATE¬ ADAPTATION¬ VERELY¬COMPROMISE¬FURTHER¬DEVELOPMENT¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ MEASURES¬ WOULD¬ REDUCE¬ THE¬ VULNERABILITY¬ OF¬ ECONOMY ¬ )NEQUALITY ¬TENSION¬AND¬CONmICT¬ARE¬LIKELY¬CONSEQUENCES¬ POPULATION¬AND¬ECOSYSTEMS¬TO¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE OF¬ RESOURCE¬ SCARCITY ¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ DETERIORATION¬ AND¬ MIGRATION¬ IMPOSED¬ BY¬ SEVERE¬ CLIMATIC¬ CHANGES¬ 7ITH 3OURCE¬.OVIKOV ¬ &ERGHANA¬¬/SH¬¬+HUJAND %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

/ERHMFEHEQ :MPPEKISJXLI%PQSRH MWEHITIR HIRG]SJ/LYNERH XLSYKLMXMWRSXEJYPPJPIHKIH XS[RWLMTMXMWGPSWIXSSRI-XWEPQSRHWEVI I\GIPPIRXLIRGIMXWREQI

!SIA¬IS¬LIKELY¬TO¬BE¬A¬SIGNIlCANT¬SHORTAGE¬OF¬WATER¬ASSOCIATED¬ 4HREAT¬OF¬CRIMINAL¬ACTION WITH¬ SIGNIlCANT¬ INCREASE¬ IN¬ SURFACE¬ AIR¬ TEMPERATURE¬ )0## ¬ ¬2ISING¬POPULATIONS¬AND¬HIGH¬POPULATION¬DENSITIES¬IN¬FERTILE¬ -ENTION¬SHOULD¬BE¬MADE¬OF¬THE¬ISSUE¬OF¬IMAGINARY¬MILITARY¬ AREAS ¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬WILL¬INCREASE¬THE¬PRESSURES¬ ACTION¬AND¬TERRORIST¬ACTS¬POTENTIALLY¬DIRECTED¬AGAINST¬CRITICAL¬ ON¬THE¬AVAILABILITY¬AND¬QUALITY¬OF¬WATER¬4HE¬AGRICULTURAL¬SECTOR ¬ INFRASTRUCTURES¬WHOSE¬FAILURE¬COULD¬HAVE¬DRAMATIC¬ENVIRON WHICH¬ CONSTITUTES¬ THE¬ BACKBONE¬ OF¬ THE¬ REGIONAL¬ ECONOMY ¬ MENTAL¬CONSEQUENCES¬%XAMPLES¬ARE¬DAMS¬0APAN¬IN¬THE¬ WOULD¬CLEARLY¬BE¬AFFECTED¬BY¬A¬REDUCTION¬IN¬WATER¬AVAILABILITY¬ /SH¬ PROVINCE ¬ 4OKTOGUL¬RESERVOIR¬ BUT¬ ALSO¬ ,AKE¬ 3AREZ¬ IN¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬OR¬TRANSPORT¬NETWORKS¬SUCH¬AS¬RAILROADS ¬#LEARLY¬ )N¬THE¬LONG¬RUN¬MOST¬CLIMATIC¬PROJECTIONS¬SUGGEST¬A¬HIGH¬TEM A¬ SUCCESSFUL¬ ATTACK¬ ON¬ THIS¬ TYPE¬ OF¬ TARGET¬ COULD¬ HAVE¬ A¬ PERATURE¬INCREASE¬IN¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬"ASIN¬RANGING¬FROM¬ª#¬TO¬ DISASTROUS¬EFFECT¬ON¬LARGE¬PARTS¬OF¬THE¬AREA¬ ª# ª#¬MODERATE¬SCENARIO ¬AND¬IN¬EXCESS¬OF¬ª# ª#¬WORST¬ CASE¬SCENARIO ¬BY¬THE¬END¬OF¬THE¬CENTURY¬ASSESSMENTS¬BY¬ %VEN¬MORE¬WORRYING¬ARE¬CRIMINAL¬ATTACKS¬ON¬SENSITIVE¬IN 5ZBEK¬AND¬4AJIK¬(YDRO METEOROLOGICAL¬3ERVICES ¬4HE¬IMPACT¬ DUSTRIAL¬SITES¬AND¬RECURRENT¬THEFTS¬OF¬QUICKSILVER¬FROM¬THE¬ ON¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬BASIN¬IN¬GENERAL ¬AND¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬IN¬ +HAIDARKAN¬MERCURY¬PLANT ¬WHICH¬DEMONSTRATE¬HOW¬EASY¬ PARTICULAR ¬WILL¬RANGE¬FROM¬MINOR¬TO¬SEVERE¬7ATER¬SHORTAGES¬ IT¬IS¬TO¬OVERCOME¬LOCAL¬SECURITY¬MEASURES¬ AND¬PROBLEMS¬WITH¬QUALITY ¬ALREADY¬AN¬ISSUE¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬SEE¬SECTION¬ON¬WATER ¬ABOVE ¬ARE¬UNLIKELY¬TO¬IMPROVE¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬DIALOGUE¬AND¬ACCESS¬TO¬INFORMATION ,AND¬CONDITIONS¬MAY¬WORSEN¬AS¬DESERT¬AREAS¬EXPAND ¬AND¬LAND¬ CLAIMS¬WILL¬GAIN¬ADDITIONAL¬FORCE¬SEE¬LAND¬SECTION ¬0OTENTIAL¬DE &OR¬ALL¬THE¬ISSUES¬ABOVE ¬THERE¬IS¬THE¬NEED¬AND¬THE¬POTENTIAL¬ CREASES¬IN¬FOOD¬PRODUCTION¬RICE ¬CEREALS ¬AND¬POSSIBLE¬SPREAD¬ TO¬STRENGTHEN¬COOPERATION¬BETWEEN¬THE¬VARIOUS¬INSTITUTIONS¬ OF¬VECTOR BORNE¬AND¬INFECTIOUS¬DISEASES¬WILL¬AFFECT¬VULNERABLE¬ INVOLVED ¬BOTH¬STATE¬AND¬OTHERWISE POPULATION¬GROUPS ¬PRIMARILY¬THE¬POOR ¬ELDERLY¬AND¬CHILDREN¬ 7HEREAS¬ COOPERATION¬ AMONG¬ NATIONAL¬ AUTHORITIES¬ HAS¬ IN¬ &INALLY ¬THERE¬IS¬EVERY¬CAUSE¬FOR¬CONCERN¬THAT¬THE¬FREQUENCY¬ MANY¬CASES¬BEEN¬RATHER¬SUCCESSFUL¬FOR¬EXAMPLE¬WITH¬RE AND¬INTENSITY¬OF¬EXTREME¬WEATHER¬EVENTS¬AND¬THE¬IMPACT¬ SPECT¬TO¬NATIONAL¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬MINISTRIES ¬METEOROLOGICAL¬ OF¬ NATURAL¬ DISASTERS¬ IS¬ INCREASING¬ WORLDWIDE¬FOR¬ SPECIlC¬ AGENCIES ¬EMERGENCY¬RESPONSE¬BODIES ¬LOCAL¬CROSS BORDER¬ IMPACTS¬ WITHIN¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬ PLEASE¬ SEE¬ SECTIONS¬ COOPERATION¬AND¬DIALOGUE¬BETWEEN¬SIMILAR¬BODIES¬IS¬LIMITED¬ ON¬INDUSTRIAL¬ACTIVITIES¬AND¬HAZARDOUS¬WASTE ¬AND¬NATURAL¬ &OR¬EXAMPLE ¬SINCE¬THE¬LATE¬S¬THERE¬HAS¬BEEN¬NO¬SYS DISASTERS¬ABOVE TEMATIC¬MECHANISM¬THAT¬WOULD¬ENABLE¬LOCAL¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ AUTHORITIES¬FROM¬DIFFERENT¬COUNTRIES¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ 0UBLIC¬HEALTH TO¬ REGULARLY¬ ADDRESS¬ COMMON¬ ISSUES¬ 3IMILAR¬ PROBLEMS¬ EXIST¬FOR¬LOCAL¬MASS¬MEDIA¬ORGANISATIONS¬AND¬.'/S¬THESE¬ !S¬MENTIONED¬IN¬THE¬SECTION¬ON¬WATER ¬OUTBREAKS¬OF¬WATER GROUPS¬USUALLY¬HAVE¬MORE¬OPPORTUNITY¬TO¬INTERACT¬THROUGH¬ RELATED¬DISEASES¬TYPHOID¬FEVER ¬MALARIA¬AND¬HEPATITIS ¬HAVE¬ INFORMAL¬NETWORKS ¬BUT¬ARE¬HINDERED¬BY¬THE¬SAME¬CROSS RECENTLY¬BEEN¬REGISTERED¬IN¬SEVERAL¬PARTS¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ BORDER¬COMMUNICATION¬DIFlCULTIES¬AS¬THE¬LOCAL¬AUTHORITIES¬ VALLEY ¬AFFECTING¬ALL¬THREE¬COUNTRIES¬4WO¬POINTS¬SHOULD¬BE¬ AND¬THE¬REST¬OF¬THE¬POPULATION NOTED¬3TATE¬BORDERS¬HAVE¬LITTLE¬EFFECT¬RESTRICTING¬THE¬SPREAD¬ OF¬DISEASE¬/UTBREAKS¬OF¬THIS¬SORT¬SUCH¬AS¬TYPHOID¬NEAR¬ &URTHERMORE ¬INSIDE¬THEIR¬OWN¬COUNTRIES¬BOTH¬GROUPS¬STILL¬ 4AJIK +YRGYZ¬BORDER ¬THUS¬CONTRIBUTE¬TO¬TENSION¬IN¬THE¬SAME¬ FACE¬CHALLENGES¬ACCESSING¬RELIABLE¬UP TO DATE¬INFORMATION¬ WAY¬AS¬CHEMICAL¬POLLUTION FROM¬OFlCIAL¬SOURCES¬n¬NOT¬LEAST¬BECAUSE¬STATE¬AND¬ESPE CIALLY¬ LOCAL¬ AUTHORITIES¬ LACK¬ THE¬ RESOURCES¬ TO¬ COLLECT¬ AND¬ 3ECONDLY ¬WITH¬REGARD¬TO¬ALL¬THE¬PROBLEMS¬EXAMINED¬HERE ¬ DISSEMINATE¬IT HAZARDS¬WITH¬A¬CLEAR ¬IMMEDIATE¬IMPACT¬ON¬HEALTH¬RADIOAC TIVE¬WASTE ¬TOXIC¬CHEMICALS ¬AIR¬POLLUTION ¬ETC ¬CAUSE¬THE¬ 4HIS¬LACK¬OF¬A¬DIALOGUE¬REDUCES¬SCOPE¬FOR¬EFlCIENTLY¬PRO GREATEST¬ PUBLIC¬ ANXIETY¬ AND¬ ATTRACT¬ THE¬ MOST¬ ATTENTION¬ MOTING¬ UNDERSTANDING¬ OF¬ ISSUES¬ AND¬ SOLUTIONS ¬ WHICH¬ IS¬ 0UBLIC¬ HEALTH¬ IS¬ CONSEQUENTLY¬ AN¬ IMPORTANT¬ FACTOR¬ WHEN¬ PARTICULARLY¬IMPORTANT¬FOR¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬ISSUES ¬ PRIORITIZING¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬THREATS¬TO¬SECURITY WITH¬THEIR¬HIGH¬CHARGE¬IN¬TERMS¬OF¬@PERCEPTION ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

#ONCLUSIONS¬AND¬OUTLOOK 4HE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬PROSPECTS¬FOR¬CONmICT

)N¬ONLY¬A¬FEW¬CASES¬IS¬THE¬SCARCITY¬OF¬RENEWABLE¬RESOURCES¬A¬ )F¬WE¬USE¬THE¬PERSPECTIVES¬SUGGESTED¬IN¬THE¬TABLE¬ABOVE¬TO¬ FACTOR¬IN¬INTERSTATE¬CONmICTS¬"UT¬BY¬LIMITING¬THE¬PRODUCTIVITY¬ LOOK¬AT¬POST INDEPENDENCE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬IT¬IS¬APPARENT¬THAT¬THE¬ OF¬ AGRICULTURE¬ AND¬ THE¬ ECONOMY¬ AS¬ A¬ WHOLE ¬ ENCOURAG REGION¬AS¬A¬WHOLE¬HAS¬BEEN¬LARGELY¬STABLE ¬WITH¬THE¬EXCEPTION¬ ING¬MIGRATION¬AND¬SOCIAL¬SEGMENTATION ¬AND¬SAPPING¬THE¬ OF¬THE¬CIVIL¬CONmICT¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬&OR¬THE¬LAST¬¬YEARS¬FORECASTS¬ POWER¬OF¬THE¬STATE ¬SUCH¬SCARCITY¬CAN¬CONTRIBUTE¬TO¬DIFFUSE ¬ HAVE¬CLAIMED¬THAT¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬WAS¬ON¬THE¬VERGE¬OF¬ PERSISTENT ¬SUBNATIONAL¬CIVIL¬VIOLENCE¬3CARCITY¬OFTEN¬PLAYS¬ AN¬EXPLOSION ¬YET¬IT¬HAS¬NOT¬EXPERIENCED¬ANY¬MAJOR¬CONmICTS¬ AN¬ INDIRECT¬ ROLE¬ IN¬ VIOLENCE ¬ INmUENCING¬ THE¬ POLITICAL¬ AND¬ APART¬FROM¬THE¬VIOLENT¬CLASHES¬INVOLVING¬THE¬-ESHKETIAN¬4URKS¬ ECONOMIC¬CHARACTER¬OF¬SOCIAL¬SYSTEMS¬4HE¬FOLLOWING¬TABLE¬ IN¬&ERGHANA¬DURING¬THE¬EARLY¬0ERESTROIKA ¬THE¬¬/SH¬AND¬ SUMMARIZES¬THESE¬ARGUMENTS 5ZGEN¬CLASHES¬AND¬THE¬)-5¬INCURSIONS¬IN¬¬AND¬

3UMMARY¬OF¬LINKS¬BETWEEN¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY

$ESCRIPTION 4RENDSEXAMPLES¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬AREA

.ECESSARY¬ 3CARCITY¬ OF¬ REGULATORY¬ MECHANISMS¬ )NEFFECTIVE¬INTERSTATE¬AGREEMENTS¬ON¬WATER SHARING¬DUE¬ CONDITIONS¬FOR¬ AND¬POOR¬STATE¬PERFORMANCE TO¬LACK¬OF¬POLITICAL¬WILL¬"REAKDOWN¬OF¬COMMUNAL¬SERV ENVIRONMENTALLY ICES ¬LIMITED¬STATE¬RESOURCES¬TO¬REPAIR¬INFRASTRUCTURE INDUCED¬CONmICTS $EPENDENCY¬ ON¬ SCARCE¬ NATURAL¬ RE $OWNSTREAM¬COUNTRIES¬HIGHLY¬DEPENDENT¬ON¬UPSTREAM¬ SOURCES ONES¬FOR¬WATER¬SUPPLY¬7ATER¬AND¬LAND¬ARE¬STRATEGIC¬ RESOURCES¬BOTH¬FOR¬STATES¬COTTON¬AS¬A¬SOURCE¬OF¬HARD¬ CURRENCY ¬AND¬SUBNATIONAL¬AREAS¬INCREASED¬IMPORTANCE¬ OF¬AGRICULTURE¬FOR¬SURVIVAL )NSTRUMENTALISING¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT &OR¬REASONS¬RELATED¬TO¬HISTORY¬AND¬COMPLEX¬POPULATION¬ PATTERNS ¬DOMINANT¬PLAYERS¬CAN¬EASILY¬USE¬OR¬MANIPU LATE¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬TO¬SERVE¬SPECIlC¬GROUP¬INTERESTS ¬ MAKING¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬QUESTIONS¬AN¬ETHNIC¬ISSUE /PPORTUNITIES¬ TO¬ BUILD¬ ORGANIZATIONS¬ 3TATE¬CONTROL¬OVER¬THE¬REGION¬HAS¬BEEN¬STRENGTHENED¬ AND¬lND¬ALLIES OVER¬THE¬YEARS¬4HIS¬IS¬BOTH¬A¬SOURCE¬OF¬STABILITY¬CONTROL¬ OF¬ OPPOSITION ¬ AND¬ INSTABILITY¬ LOCAL¬ ACTORS¬ MOBILIZED¬ BY¬GRIEVANCES 3PILLOVER¬FROM¬A¬HISTORIC¬CONmICT /NLY¬IN¬CERTAIN¬REGIONS ¬AT¬SUB STATE¬LEVEL ¬IS¬THERE¬A¬RECORD¬ OF¬LOCAL¬VIOLENT ¬DISPUTES¬THOUGH¬OFTEN¬WITH¬POTENTIAL¬FOR¬ INTER ETHNIC¬ANDOR¬CROSS BOUNDARY¬IMPLICATIONS¬¬

6ULNERABLE 4RANSNATIONAL¬RIVER¬BASINS 3YR $ARYA¬BASIN LOCATIONS -ARGINAL¬VULNERABLE¬AREAS ¬AT¬INTRASTATE¬ ,OWLANDS¬IRRIGATED¬AREAS¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN LEVEL !REAS¬DIRECTLY¬IMPACTED¬BY¬ENVIRONMENT¬ 0OLLUTION¬AND¬WASTE¬HOTSPOTS¬AND¬AREAS ¬WATERLOGGED¬ DEGRADATION¬POLLUTION ¬WATERLOGGING AREAS ¬DEGRADATION¬OF¬LAND¬AND¬FORESTS $ENSELY¬ POPULATED¬ AREAS¬ WHERE¬ AC ,OW LAND¬ESPECIALLY¬5ZBEK ¬PART¬OF¬THE¬VALLEY ¬ENCLAVES¬ CESS¬ TO¬ KEY¬ RESOURCES¬ BECOMES¬ AN¬ AND¬AREAS¬SQUEEZED¬BETWEEN¬BORDERS ¬FOREST¬AREAS¬IN¬ ISSUE¬OF¬SURVIVAL +YRGYZSTAN !RID¬PLAINS ¬MOUNTAIN¬AREAS¬WITH¬HIGH 5PLANDS¬AND¬HILLS¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬ENCLAVES LAND LOWLAND¬INTERACTION #ONCLUSIONS¬AND¬OUTLOOK %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

4HE¬OVERALL¬STABILITY¬OF¬THE¬REGION¬CAN¬PROBABLY¬BE¬LINKED¬TO¬ PERIOD¬ONLY¬HAVING¬BENElTED¬A¬FRACTION¬OF¬THE¬POPULATION ¬ AN¬UNDERESTIMATION¬OF¬THE¬RESTRAINING¬FACTORS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬ CONTRIBUTING¬TO¬A¬WIDESPREAD¬SENSE¬OF¬SOCIAL¬INEQUALITY¬ PERSISTENCE¬ IN¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA¬ OF¬ PRE 2USSIAN ¬ PRE MODERN¬ AND¬INJUSTICE CONSERVATISM ¬ ESPECIALLY¬ CONCERNING¬ THE¬ LEGITIMACY¬ OF¬ s 6ARYING¬RATES¬OF¬ECONOMIC¬DEVELOPMENT¬BETWEEN¬STATES ¬ POWER¬4HE¬LEGITIMACY¬OF¬THE¬DOMINANT¬SOCIAL¬ORDER¬AND¬ AND¬ ABOVE¬ ALL¬ WITHIN¬ INDIVIDUAL¬ STATES ¬ STRENGTHENING¬ SYSTEM¬OF¬GOVERNMENT¬IS¬A¬CRITICAL¬VARIABLE¬AFFECTING¬THE¬ HORIZONTAL¬INEQUALITY¬AT¬A¬SUBREGIONAL¬LEVEL EMERGENCE¬OF¬VIOLENT¬CIVIL¬CONmICT¬)N¬THE¬HIERARCHICAL¬SO s /VERALL¬DECLINE¬IN¬STATE¬PERFORMANCE¬DELIVERING¬SERVICES¬ CIETIES¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬ONLY¬A¬STRONG¬n¬AND¬THUS¬PERVASIVE¬ SINCE¬INDEPENDENCE n¬STATE¬IS¬A¬LEGITIMATE¬STATE¬4HE¬CAPACITY¬OF¬THE¬POPULATION¬ TO¬ ENDURE¬ PROTRACTED¬ ECONOMIC¬ CRISIS¬ HAS¬ BEEN¬ GROSSLY¬ 7ITH¬ POPULATION¬ GROWTH ¬ RISING¬ AVERAGE¬ DEMAND¬ FOR¬ RE UNDERESTIMATED¬)SLAM¬IS¬NOT¬ONLY¬USED¬BY¬RADICAL¬NEO FUN SOURCES¬AND¬PERSISTENT¬INEQUALITY¬IN¬ACCESS¬TO¬RESOURCES ¬ DAMENTALIST¬ORGANIZATIONS¬TO¬CREATE¬A¬CONmICTUAL¬ENVIRON SCARCITY¬ WILL¬ SEVERELY¬ AFFECT¬ AN¬ ENVIRONMENTALLY¬ SENSITIVE¬ MENT¬)T¬IS¬ALSO¬A¬STRONG¬ELEMENT¬OF¬STABILITY¬AND¬RESTRAINT¬ REGION¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬INCREASING¬THE¬AREAS¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIAN¬ COUNTRIES¬ ARE¬ STILL¬ GOVERNED¬ BY¬ LEADERSHIP¬ VULNERABILITY¬TO¬CONmICT¬ WITH¬A¬COMMON¬BACKGROUND¬AND¬SOCIALIZATION ¬MAKING¬IT¬ EASIER¬TO¬lND¬AD HOC¬SOLUTIONS¬IN¬TIMES¬OF¬CRISIS¬&INALLY ¬ &OCUSING¬ MORE¬ SPECIlCALLY¬ ON¬ THE¬ ROLE¬ OF¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ SOCIAL¬INSTITUTIONS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬PROMINENCE¬OF¬INFORMAL¬SOCIAL¬ FACTORS¬IN¬THE¬REGIONS¬VULNERABILITY¬TO¬TENSION¬AND¬CONmICT ¬ NETWORKS¬CLANS ¬AND¬THE¬FAMILY¬UNIT¬HAVE¬BEEN¬A¬POWERFUL¬ THE¬MAP¬SUMMARIZES¬THE¬MAIN¬RESULTS¬AND¬TRENDS¬PRESENTED¬ FORCE¬FOR¬SOCIAL¬CONTROL¬AND¬RESTRAINT IN¬THIS¬REPORT

(OWEVER¬SINCE¬INDEPENDENCE¬THE¬INmUENCE¬OF¬SEVERAL¬FAC )N¬ VIEW¬ OF¬ THE¬ WORSENING¬ LIVING¬ CONDITIONS ¬ DECLINING¬ TORS¬CONTRIBUTING¬TO¬INSECURITY¬HAS¬INCREASED LIVELIHOODS ¬ INCREASING¬ LAND¬ SHORTAGES¬ CAUSED¬ BY¬ HIGH¬ s (IGH¬POPULATION¬DENSITIES¬IN¬THE¬IRRIGATED¬LOWLANDS¬OF¬ DEMOGRAPHIC¬ PRESSURE ¬ AND¬ THE¬ BLEAK¬ ECONOMIC¬ OUTLOOK¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ COMBINED¬ WITH¬ HIGH¬ BIRTH¬ FOR¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬LARGE¬SEGMENTS¬OF¬THE¬POPULATION¬ RATE¬REDUCING¬THESE¬REGIONS¬CAPACITY¬TO¬ABSORB¬EXCESS¬ ARE¬MIGRATING¬IN¬SEARCH¬OF¬A¬BETTER¬FUTURE¬,OCAL¬MIGRATION¬ LABOUR¬AND¬FEED¬THE¬INCREASING¬POPULATION MIGRATION¬WITHIN¬THE¬REGION ¬IS¬A¬KEY¬PHENOMENON¬.OT¬ONLY¬ s ,IMITED¬ ECONOMIC¬ PRODUCTIVITY¬ IN¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ AREA ¬ ARE¬PEOPLE¬MIGRATING¬TO¬REGIONAL¬CENTRES¬SUCH¬AS¬/SH¬AND¬ HIGH¬LEVELS¬OF¬UNEMPLOYMENT¬ESPECIALLY¬FOR¬YOUNG¬PEO *ALAL !BAD¬IN¬3OUTH¬+YRGYZSTAN¬4HERE¬IS¬ALSO¬SUBSTANTIAL¬ PLE¬AND¬A¬LACK¬OF¬ALTERNATIVE¬SOURCES¬OF¬INCOME ¬ADDING¬ MIGRATION¬FROM¬THE¬LOWLANDS¬TOWARDS¬THE¬HILLS¬AND¬MOUN TO¬ THE¬ NUMBER¬ OF¬ PEOPLE¬ WITH¬ GRIEVANCES¬ -IGRATION¬ TAIN¬REGIONS¬SURROUNDING¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬4HE¬PRESSURE¬ RURAL RURAL ¬RURAL URBAN¬OR¬TO¬OTHER¬#)3¬COUNTRIES ¬HAS¬ PLACED¬ON¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES¬BY¬THE¬RAPID¬INmUX¬OF¬POPULATION¬ SO¬FAR¬ACTED¬AS¬A¬MAJOR¬SAFETY¬VALVE IN¬ THESE¬ ALREADY¬ MARGINAL¬ LANDS¬ IS¬ CHANGING¬ THE¬ RELATION¬ s 'RADUAL¬DEMARCATION¬OF¬STATE¬BORDERS¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ BETWEEN¬LOW¬AND¬HIGHLANDS¬-ORE¬IMPORTANTLY¬COMPETITION¬ VALLEY¬ AND¬ TIGHTER¬ BORDER¬ CONTROLS ¬ COMBINED¬ WITH¬ FOR¬SCARCE¬LOCAL¬RESOURCES¬BETWEEN¬ESTABLISHED¬POPULATIONS¬ STRICTER¬VISA¬REGIMES ¬LIMITING¬THE¬CIRCULATION¬OF¬GOODS¬ AND¬NEWCOMERS¬CAN¬EASILY¬AND¬RAPIDLY¬ESCALATE¬INTO¬VIOLENT¬ AND¬PERSONS¬AND¬PLACING¬AN¬ADDITIONAL¬RESTRAINT¬ON¬THE¬ CONmICT¬)F¬THREATENED¬BY¬ECOLOGICAL¬MARGINALIZATION ¬PEOPLE¬ REGIONS¬ECONOMIC¬ACTIVITY LIVING¬IN¬THESE¬AREAS¬WOULD¬MOST¬PROBABLY¬MOBILIZE¬ALONG¬ s )NFRASTRUCTURE¬DEGRADATION¬ESPECIALLY¬THE¬IRRIGATION¬INFRA ETHNIC¬LINES¬ STRUCTURE¬OF¬KEY¬IMPORTANCE¬TO¬THE¬AGRICULTURAL¬SECTOR ¬ COMBINED¬WITH¬RESOURCE¬SCARCITY ¬CONTRIBUTING¬TO¬KEENER¬ )N¬THE¬IRRIGATED¬PLAINS ¬THE¬ENCLAVES¬AND¬BORDER¬REGIONS¬ARE¬ COMPETITION¬FOR¬RESOURCES¬BETWEEN¬SOCIAL¬GROUPS¬4HIS¬ THE¬FOCUS¬OF¬CONCERN¬4IGHTER¬BORDER¬CONTROLS¬PARTICULARLY¬ SITUATION¬ ALSO¬ SPEEDS¬ UP¬ GROUP¬ SEGMENTATION¬ ALONG¬ THE¬5ZBEK¬BORDER ¬ARE¬DISRUPTING¬LEGAL¬TRADE¬AND¬ECONOMIC¬ KINSHIP¬LINES ACTIVITY¬AND¬ENCOURAGING¬SMUGGLING ¬!ND¬NEW¬STATE¬BOR s 7ORSENING¬LIVING¬CONDITIONS¬FOR¬THE¬MAJORITY¬OF¬THE¬POPU DERS¬ARE¬ADDING¬A¬TRANSNATIONAL¬DIMENSION¬TO¬LOCAL¬DISPUTES¬ LATION¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬REGION ¬THE¬POST INDEPENDENCE¬ AND¬COMPLICATING¬THE¬SEARCH¬FOR¬SOLUTIONS¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

%STABLISHING¬ INTERNATIONAL¬ BORDERS¬ HAS¬ MADE¬ ACCESS¬ TO¬ $EFORESTATION¬AND¬OVERUSE¬OF¬PASTURE¬ARE¬ISSUES¬OF¬GROWING¬ WATER¬ RESOURCES¬ AND¬ UPKEEP¬ OF¬ THE¬ WATER¬ INFRASTRUCTURE¬ CONCERN ¬WHICH¬MAY¬DEGENERATE¬INTO¬A¬SECURITY¬PROBLEM ¬ AN¬EXTREMELY¬COMPLEX¬ISSUE¬4ENSION¬AND¬EVEN¬LOCALIZED¬ PARTICULARLY¬IN¬BORDER¬AREAS¬AND¬ENCLAVES VIOLENT¬CLASHES¬OVER¬ACCESS¬TO¬WATER¬ARE¬RECURRENT¬ALONG¬ THE¬ BORDERS¬ OF¬ +YRGYZSTAN ¬ 5ZBEKISTAN¬ AND¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬ "ADLY¬MAINTAINED¬RADIOACTIVE¬DUMPS¬AND¬TAILING¬CONTAIN (OWEVER¬TENSION¬OVER¬ACCESS¬TO¬WATER¬IS¬ALSO¬COMMON¬IN¬ MENTS ¬AND¬SEVERAL¬WORKING¬INDUSTRIAL¬FACILITIES¬CONSTITUTE¬ MONO ETHNIC¬AND¬NON BORDER¬COMMUNITIES ¬WHERE¬DISPUTES¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬HOTSPOTS¬)N¬A¬FEW¬CASES¬NATIONAL¬AND¬REGIONAL¬ OFTEN¬HAVE¬AN¬ELITE¬DIMENSION¬AND¬MOSTLY¬INVOLVE¬LOCAL¬COM AUTHORITIES ¬AND¬THE¬GENERAL¬PUBLIC ¬SEE¬POLLUTION¬AS¬A¬MAJOR¬ MUNITIES¬AND¬DISTRICT¬OR¬REGIONAL¬AUTHORITIES¬$ISPUTES¬AND¬ ISSUE¬AND¬A¬SECURITY¬THREAT¬4HE¬FACT¬THAT¬THE¬ACTIVITIES¬GIV TENSION¬BETWEEN¬COLLECTIVE¬FARMS¬AND¬PRIVATE¬FARMERS¬WILL¬ ING¬RISE¬TO¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CONCERN¬ARE¬OFTEN¬ESSENTIAL¬TO¬THE¬ BECOME¬ MORE¬ FREQUENT¬ ESPECIALLY¬ IF¬ AUTHORITIES¬ CONTINUE¬ ECONOMY¬TOO¬CERTAINLY¬CONTRIBUTES¬TO¬THE¬CAUTIOUS¬APPROACH¬ THEIR¬POLICY¬OF¬SUPPORTING¬COLLECTIVE¬FARMS TO¬ INDUSTRIAL¬ POLLUTION¬ GENERALLY¬ ADOPTED¬ BY¬ THE¬ VARIOUS¬

Fowjsponfou!boe!Tfdvsjuz!qsjpsjuz!bsfbt UBMBT jo!uif!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz DIV

LB[BLITUBO Upluphvm Obszo Sftfswpjs Dibulbm Sftfswpjs ijl 3!.!!Sbejpbdujwf!cfmu sd ij D LZSHZ[TUBO KBMBM.BCBE Ubtilfou po bs Nbjmvv.Tvv oh Tiflbgubs ib 6!.!Mboe-!gpsftut- Dibsebsb B Sftfswpjs V[CFLJTUBO Dibslftbs !!!xbufs-!cpsefst OBNBOHBO Obnbohbo !!!!!!!!boe!vosftu UBTILFOU Zbohfcbu Kbmbm.Bcbe Vzhvstbz Tzsebszb BOEJKBO Boejkbo 2!.!Mpxfs Besbtnbo szb bm Gfshibob!Wbmmfz b bo .E D Ubcptibs zs b Pti T GFSHIBOB bo Hvmjtubo Gfshi Lbjsbllvn Lbojcbebn Gfshibob TZSEBSZB Livkboe Sftfswpjs

Kj{bli TPHE 5!.!Difnjdbm!sjtl Libjebslbo Lbebnkbj Cbulfo PTI KJ[BLI CBULFO

4!.!Fodmbwft mtv UBKJLJTUBO Lz{z [fsbwtibo

1 61 211261 311!ln

2.!Mpxfs!Gfshibob!Wbmmfz 5!.!Joevtusjbm!qpmmvujpo!boe!difnjdbm!sjtl Xbufs!sfhvmbujpo-!sbejpbdujwf!xbtuf!nbobhfnfou- Sjtl!pg!usbotcpvoebsz!qpmmvujpo!evf!up xbufs!ubcmf!sjtf!boe!mpdbm!ejtqvuft- qppsmz!nbobhfe!joevtusjbm!boe!difnjdbmt!ejtqptbm!tjuft tpjm!efhsbebujpo!)tbmjoj{bujpo*

3.!Sbejpbdujwf!cfmu 6!.!Mboe-!gpsftut-!xbufs-!cpsefst!boe!vosftu Qpps!sbejpbdujwf!xbtuf!nbobhfnfou!boe!sjtl!pg Mboe!efhsbebujpo!boe!efgpsftubujpo-!xbufs!sftfswpjst usbotcpvoebsz!qpmmvujpo!)bjs-!xbufs-!gppe!dibjo* boe!sfhvmbujpo-!cpsefs!boe!mboe!ejtqvuft-!sfdfou!djwjm!vosftu

Pqqpsuvojujft!gps!usbotcpvoebsz!dppqfsbujpo 4!.!Fodmbwft

Cpsefs-!mboe!boe!xbufs!ejtqvuft-!qsftfodf UIF!NBQ!EPFT!OPU!JNQMZ!UIF!FYQSFTTJPO!PG!BOZ!PQJOJPO!PO!UIF!QBSU!PG!UIF!!BHFODJFT!DPODFSOJOH!UIF!MFHBM!TUBUVT pg!mboe.njoft!)nbljoh!bhsjdvmuvsf!boe!dbuumf PG!BOZ!DPVOUSZ-!UFSSJUPSZ-!DJUZ!PS!BSFB!PG!JUT!BVUIPSJUZ-!PS!EFMJOFBUJPO!PG!JUT!GSPOUJFST!BOE!CPVOEBSJFT/ hsb{joh!ebohfspvt*-!efgpsftubujpo NBQ!CZ!WJLUPS!OPWJLPW!BOE!QIJMJQQF!SFLBDFXJD[!.!VOFQ0HSJE.BSFOEBM!.!BQSJM!3116 #ONCLUSIONS¬AND¬OUTLOOK %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

COUNTRIES¬ !T¬ THE¬ SAME¬ TIME ¬ THESE¬ ISSUES¬ ARE¬ RECURRENT ¬ IMPORTANT¬FOR¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬ISSUES ¬WITH¬THEIR¬ STRAINING¬RELATIONS¬BETWEEN¬NEIGHBOURS¬AS¬IN¬THE¬CASE¬OF¬ HIGH¬CHARGE¬IN¬TERMS¬OF¬@PERCEPTION 4URSUNZADE¬VS¬"EKABAD ¬!LMALYK 4HE¬ROAD¬AHEAD¬FOR¬%.63%# 4HE¬STATES¬SHARING¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬AREA¬ARE¬CLEARLY¬INTERDE PENDENT¬3PILLS¬AND¬POLLUTION¬RARELY¬AFFECT¬ONLY¬ONE¬COUNTRY¬ !¬RECENT¬REVIEW¬OF¬CASES¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬COOPERATION¬HAS¬ )N¬CERTAIN¬CASES¬THE¬AUTHORITIES¬OF¬THE¬REGION¬HAVE¬DRAWN¬UP¬ OUTLINED¬THAT¬STUDIES¬WARNING¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTALLY¬INDUCED¬ AGREEMENTS¬ANDOR¬CASE BY CASE¬MECHANISMS¬TO¬REGULATE¬ CONmICT¬TYPICALLY¬END¬WITH¬HIGHLY¬GENERALIZED¬RECOMMENDA ISSUES¬ PERTAINING¬ TO¬ THE¬ RISKS¬ AND¬ PROBLEMS¬ CAUSED¬ BY¬ TIONS¬FOR¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬COOPERATION ¬BUT¬LACK¬ANY¬ANALYSIS¬ TRANSBOUNDARY¬ INDUSTRIAL¬ POLLUTION¬ (OWEVER¬ THERE¬ IS¬ STILL¬ OF¬THE¬MECHANISMS¬BY¬WHICH¬SUCH¬COOPERATION¬COULD¬BE¬ NO¬REGION WIDE¬FRAMEWORK¬FOR¬SYSTEMATIC¬MONITORING ¬COM EXPECTED¬TO¬FORESTALL¬VIOLENCE¬OR¬SUPPORT¬THE¬CHANCES¬FOR¬ MUNICATION¬AND¬INTERVENTION¬IN¬RESPONSE¬TO¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬ PEACE¬#ONCA¬AND¬$ABELKO ¬¬ INDUSTRIAL¬POLLUTION¬ 7ITH¬THE¬PRESENT¬ASSESSMENT¬THE¬%.63%#¬INITIATIVE¬SEEKS¬ 4AILING¬DUMPS¬AND¬INDUSTRIES¬ARE¬EXPOSED¬TO¬NATURAL¬HAZ TO¬ACHIEVE¬TWO¬COMPLEMENTARY¬AIMS ARDS¬-OREOVER¬THEY¬ARE¬OFTEN¬LOCATED¬NEAR¬RIVERS¬ANDOR¬ s IN¬COOPERATION¬WITH¬THE¬COUNTRIES¬AND¬COMMUNITIES ¬TO¬ MAIN¬IRRIGATION¬CHANNELS ¬IN¬THE¬VICINITY¬OF¬TOWNS¬AND¬CITIES¬ SYSTEMATIZE¬AND¬PRESENT¬TO¬A¬WIDER¬AUDIENCE¬AN¬ACCOUNT¬ -AJOR¬ DISASTERS¬ AFFECTING¬ THE¬ PLANTS¬ LISTED¬ ABOVE¬ WOULD ¬ OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬ISSUES¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬THAT¬RE DIRECTLY¬OR¬INDIRECTLY¬BY¬CAUSING¬PANIC¬AND¬PUBLIC¬OUTCRY ¬ QUIRE¬PRIORITY¬ACTION¬FROM¬THE¬SECURITY¬VIEWPOINT HAVE¬LONG TERM¬DRAMATIC¬CONSEQUENCES¬FOR¬THE¬LIVELIHOODS¬ s TO¬TRIGGER¬n¬OR¬EVEN¬HELP¬IMPLEMENT¬n¬SOME¬OF¬THE¬AC OF¬LARGE¬AREAS¬/VER¬AND¬ABOVE¬THE¬IMMEDIATE¬DESTRUCTION¬ TIONS¬BY¬DESIGNING¬AND¬STARTING¬CONCRETE¬PROJECTS¬AND¬ SUCH¬AN¬EVENT¬COULD¬DISPLACE¬LARGE¬GROUPS¬OF¬PEOPLE¬ALSO¬ PROCESSES AFFECTING¬THE¬LIVELIHOODS¬OF¬THE¬HOST¬AREAS¬0REVENTION¬ALSO¬ OFFERS¬AN¬OPPORTUNITY¬FOR¬DEVELOPING¬COOPERATION¬BETWEEN¬ 4HE¬ lRST¬ SUCH¬ PROCESS¬ HAS¬ BEEN¬ THE¬ ASSESSMENT¬ ITSELF ¬ PROVINCES¬AND¬STATES¬POTENTIALLY¬AFFECTED¬BY¬AN¬ACCIDENT¬ INCLUDING¬A¬MAJOR¬REGIONAL¬EVENT¬IN¬/SH¬IN¬$ECEMBER¬¬ OR¬DISASTER 4HE¬/SH¬WORKSHOP¬NOT¬ONLY¬CRITICALLY¬REVIEWED¬ASSESSMENT¬ MATERIAL¬AND¬CONCLUSIONS¬FROM¬THE¬INTERNATIONAL¬lELD¬MIS #LIMATE¬ CHANGE¬ IS¬ LIKELY¬ TO¬ BE¬ A¬ PRESSING¬ AND¬ COMPLEX¬ SIONS ¬BUT¬ALSO¬GAVE¬THE¬VARIOUS¬STAKEHOLDERS¬AN¬OPPORTUNITY¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ISSUE¬FOR¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬IN¬THE¬COMING¬ ¬ TO¬AGREE¬ON¬PRIORITY¬ISSUES¬TO¬BE¬ADDRESSED¬FROM¬AN¬ENVIRON YEARS¬ESPECIALLY¬IF¬THE¬WORST CASE¬SCENARIOS¬PRESENTED¬IN¬ MENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬PERSPECTIVE¬4HIS¬IS¬THE¬lRST¬STEP¬TOWARDS¬ SEVERAL¬STUDIES¬REALLY¬OCCUR ¬4HE¬LACK¬OF¬EFFECTIVE¬POLICIES¬ BUILDING¬hSHARED¬COLLECTIVE¬SECURITY¬IDENTITIESv¬WHICH¬MAKE¬ AND¬INSTITUTIONS¬TO¬ADDRESS¬IMPACTS¬FURTHER¬COMPLICATES¬THE¬ CONmICT¬INCONCEIVABLE¬&URTHERMORE¬THE¬/SH¬MEETING¬GAVE¬ SITUATION¬AND¬INCREASES¬VULNERABILITY¬TO¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE¬4HE¬ PARTICIPANTS¬A¬CHANCE¬TO¬PLAN¬AND¬DISCUSS¬A¬PACKAGE¬OF¬ RELEVANT¬STATES¬ARE¬NOT¬PREPARED¬FOR¬SUCH¬CHANGES¬4HIS¬ ACTIVITIES¬THAT¬WILL¬NOW¬ADDRESS¬VARIOUS¬CONCERNS ¬NAMELY¬ COULD¬IN¬TURN¬UNDERMINE¬THE¬REGIONS¬ABILITY¬TO¬RESIST¬CONmICT¬ THE¬%.63%#¬WORK¬PROGRAMME¬FOR¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ RELATED¬TO¬LAND ¬WATER¬AND¬FOOD¬SECURITY 4HE¬WORK¬PROGRAMME¬ENCOMPASSES¬THE¬ISSUES¬AND¬CLUSTERS¬ 0UBLIC¬HEALTH¬IS¬STILL¬ON¬THE¬POLICY¬AND¬PUBLIC¬AGENDA¬%NVI ALREADY¬DISCUSSED¬IN¬THE¬REPORT¬NATURAL¬RESOURCES ¬INDUSTRIAL¬ RONMENT SECURITY¬CONCERNS¬INCLUDE¬THE¬CONSEQUENCES¬FOR¬ POLLUTION¬AND¬WASTE ¬AND¬CROSS CUTTING¬CONCERNS¬)T¬ALSO¬ PUBLIC¬ HEALTH¬ OF¬ POLLUTION ¬ ACCIDENTS¬ AND¬ TRANSBOUNDARY¬ SETS¬OUT¬TO¬REINFORCE¬SUPPORTING¬INSTITUTIONS¬SUCH¬AS¬LOCAL¬ EPIDEMICS¬CAUSED¬BY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬FACTORS ENVIRONMENTAL¬AUTHORITIES ¬CIVIL¬SOCIETY¬AND¬THE¬MASS¬MEDIA¬ n¬NOT¬LEAST¬TO¬PROMOTE¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬COOPERATION¬BETWEEN¬ 3TRATEGIC¬INFRASTRUCTURES¬SUCH¬AS¬LARGE¬DAMS¬COULD¬BE¬AT¬RISK¬ THEM¬!LL¬IN¬ALL¬WORK¬WILL¬MOVE¬CLOSER¬TO¬THE¬lELD¬n¬CLOSER¬TO¬ FROM¬TERRORIST¬ATTACKS¬WITH¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬EFFECTS¬%VEN¬MORE¬ LOCAL¬SITES¬AND¬THE¬COMMUNITIES¬COPING¬WITH¬HAZARDS¬)T¬WILL¬ WORRYING¬ARE¬POSSIBILITIES¬OF¬CRIMINAL¬ATTACKS¬ON¬SENSITIVE¬ ALSO¬TAKEN¬ON¬A¬MORE¬LONG TERM¬PERSPECTIVE¬!SSESSMENTS¬ INDUSTRIAL¬SITES ¬VARIOUS¬INCIDENTS¬HAVING¬SHOWN¬HOW¬EASY¬ WILL¬BE¬CARRIED¬OUT¬FOR¬VERY¬SPECIlC¬ISSUES¬AND¬SITUATIONS ¬ IT¬IS¬TO¬OVERCOME¬LOCAL¬SECURITY¬MEASURES AND¬SUPPORT¬PROVIDED¬FOR¬IMPROVED¬LOCAL¬MANAGEMENT¬OF¬ RELATED¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬RISKS¬WITH¬A¬SECURITY¬COMPONENT &INALLY ¬ LACK¬ OF¬ DIALOGUE¬ BETWEEN¬ LOCAL¬ GOVERNMENTS¬ AS¬ WELL¬AS¬NON GOVERNMENTAL¬AND¬MEDIA¬INSTITUTIONS¬ACROSS¬ )N¬ THE¬ NATURAL¬ RESOURCE¬ CLUSTER ¬ 5.$0¬ WILL¬ CONTRIBUTE¬ TO¬ STATE¬ BORDERS¬ REDUCES¬ SCOPE¬ FOR¬ EFlCIENTLY¬ PROMOTING¬ IMPROVED¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬MANAGEMENT¬OF¬LAND¬AND¬WATER¬RE UNDERSTANDING¬OF¬ISSUES¬AND¬SOLUTIONS¬4HIS¬IS¬PARTICULARLY¬ SOURCES¬IN¬THE¬5PPER¬3YR $ARYA¬BASIN¬7ORK¬WILL¬RANGE¬FROM¬A¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

JOINT¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬ASSESSMENT¬TO¬SETTING¬UP¬DEMONSTRATION¬ RELATED¬TO¬NATURAL¬DISASTERS¬SUCH¬AS¬LANDSLIDES ¬MUDmOWS ¬ PROJECTS¬IN¬LOCAL¬COMMUNITIES¬#OOPERATION¬WILL¬BE¬STRENGTH mOODS¬AND¬DROUGHT¬4O¬INCREASE¬THE¬IMPACT¬OF¬WORK ¬PAR ENED¬ BETWEEN¬ %.63%#¬ AND¬ SPECIlC¬ PARALLEL¬ INITIATIVES¬ IN¬ TICIPANTS¬HAVE¬AGREED¬THAT¬THESE¬INITIATIVES¬SHOULD¬BE¬LINKED¬ THE¬LAND¬AND¬WATER¬SECTOR¬FOR¬EXAMPLE¬THE¬3WISS lNANCED¬ TO¬THOSE¬UNDERTAKEN¬ON¬INDUSTRIAL¬LOCATIONS¬AND¬RADIOACTIVE¬ )NTEGRATED¬ 7ATER¬ 2ESOURCES¬ -ANAGEMENT¬ IN¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ WASTES¬SITES¬4HE¬PROJECT¬WILL¬MAP¬OUT¬HAZARDS¬IN¬GREATER¬ VALLEY ¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬WORK¬OF¬THE¬)NTERNATIONAL¬&UND¬FOR¬3AVING¬ DETAIL¬THAN¬IS¬CURRENTLY¬AVAILABLE¬LOOKING ¬AMONG¬OTHERS ¬AT¬ THE¬!RAL¬3EA POSSIBLE¬IMPACTS¬ON¬INDUSTRIAL¬FACILITIES ¬AND¬THEN¬CONTRIBUTE¬ TO¬GREATER¬LOCAL¬PREPAREDNESS¬!S¬WITH¬OTHER¬LOCAL¬PROJECTS ¬ )N¬THE¬INDUSTRIAL¬AND¬WASTE¬CLUSTER ¬WITH¬THE¬SUPPORT¬OF¬THE¬ RESULTS¬IF¬SUCCESSFUL¬CAN¬BE¬TRANSFERRED¬TO¬OTHER¬LOCATIONS¬ )TALIAN¬ -INISTRY¬ OF¬ THE¬ %NVIRONMENT¬ AND¬ )TALIAN¬ INDUSTRY ¬ 3AFETY¬OF¬DAMS¬IS¬ANOTHER¬POSSIBLE¬DIMENSION¬OF¬%.63%#¬ %.63%#¬ WILL¬ MAKE¬ A¬ DETAILED¬ ANALYSIS¬ OF¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ INTEREST¬YET¬TO¬BE¬INVESTIGATED AND¬HEALTH¬RISKS¬AT¬FOUR¬INDUSTRIAL¬SITES¬THE¬+HAIDARKAN¬AND¬ +ADAMJAI¬¬MINING¬AND¬PROCESSING¬PLANTS¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬THE¬ )N¬OUR¬VIEW¬%.63%#¬CONTRIBUTES¬SIGNIlCANT¬ADDED¬VALUE¬BY¬ &ERGHANA¬ OIL¬ RElNERY¬ IN¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ AND¬ THE¬ +ANIBADAM¬ STRENGTHENING¬INSTITUTIONS¬AND¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬DIALOGUE¬AND¬ DUMP¬ FOR¬ OBSOLETE¬ PESTICIDES¬ IN¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬4HE¬ PROJECT¬ COOPERATION¬!CCORDINGLY ¬IN¬ADDITION¬TO¬WORKING¬WITH¬LOCAL¬ WILL¬ ALSO¬ HELP¬ IMPROVE¬ ORGANIZATION¬ OF¬ RISK¬ MANAGEMENT¬ COMMUNITIES¬AND¬INDUSTRY ¬WE¬WILL¬INVOLVE¬KEY¬PLAYERS¬SUCH¬ IN¬LOCAL¬INDUSTRY¬5NDER¬THE¬LEADERSHIP¬OF¬.!4/S¬3ECURITY¬ AS¬'OVERNMENT ¬CIVIL¬SOCIETY¬AND¬MASS¬MEDIA¬ 4HROUGH¬3CIENCE¬PARTNERS¬AND¬IN¬COORDINATION¬WITH¬)!%! ¬ %.63%#¬WILL¬ALSO¬HELP¬STRENGTHEN¬LOCAL¬ANALYTICAL¬CAPACITIES¬ 'OVERNMENTS¬HAVE¬ALWAYS¬BEEN¬%.63%#S¬PRIMARY¬COUN FOR¬RADIATION¬MEASUREMENT ¬AND¬THEN¬CARRY¬OUT¬A¬DETAILED¬ TERPARTS¬AND¬WE¬WILL¬CONTINUE¬TO¬RELY¬ON¬A¬NETWORK¬OF¬NATIONAL¬ RISK¬ASSESSMENT¬AT¬SELECTED¬URANIUM¬MINING¬SITES¬SUCH¬AS¬ FOCAL¬POINTS¬FROM¬BOTH¬THE¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬AND¬&OREIGN¬!FFAIRS¬ 3HEKAFTAR¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬$EGMAY¬AND¬4ABOSHAR¬4AJIKISTAN ¬ PARTS¬OF¬THE¬ADMINISTRATIONS¬&OLLOWING¬THE¬SUCCESS¬OF¬THE¬lRST¬ AND¬9ANGEBAT¬5ZBEKISTAN MEETING¬OF¬PROVINCIAL¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬COMMITTEES¬FROM¬+YR GYZSTAN ¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬IN¬/SH¬IN¬ ¬%.63%#¬ !DDRESSING¬CROSS CUTTING¬CONCERNS ¬5.$0¬WILL¬HELP¬AUTHORI WILL¬CONTINUE¬TO¬SUPPORT¬SUCH¬MEETINGS¬AND¬A¬¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬ TIES¬AND¬LOCAL¬COMMUNITIES¬TO¬IMPROVE¬MANAGEMENT¬OF¬RISKS¬ DIALOGUE¬BETWEEN¬LOCAL¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AUTHORITIES¬IN¬GENERAL¬

&ACILITATING¬DIALOGUE¬AMONG¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AUTHORITIES¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬PROVINCES

/NE¬IMPORTANT¬OUTCOME¬OF¬%.63%#¬CONSULTATIONS¬ IN¬/SH¬IN¬$ECEMBER¬¬HAS¬BEEN¬THE¬RE ESTAB LB[BLITUBO LISHMENT¬ OF¬ A¬ DIALOGUE¬ BETWEEN¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ LZSHZ[TUBO AUTHORITIES¬FROM¬THE¬PROVINCES¬OBLASTS ¬OF¬THE¬THREE¬ COUNTRIES¬CONSTITUTING¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬(EADS¬ KBMBMBCBE V[CFLJTUBO OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬COMMITTEES¬FROM¬THE¬"ATKEN ¬/SH¬ OBNBOHBO AND¬*ALAL !BAD¬OBLASTS¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬3OGD¬OBLAST¬ BOEJKBO OF¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬!NDIJAN ¬ .AMANGAN¬ AND¬ &ERGHANA¬ TPHE GFSHIBOB PROVINCES¬OF¬5ZBEKISTAN¬MET¬FOR¬THE¬lRST¬TIME¬AFTER¬ PTI A¬LONG¬BREAK¬IN¬AN¬EVENT¬ORGANISED¬BY¬%.63%#¬ON¬

$ECEMBER¬ ¬¬AT¬/SH¬0UBLIC¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬ CBULFO )NFORMATION¬#ENTRE

UBKJLJTUBO DIJOB %NVIRONMENTAL¬AUTHORITIES¬WITHIN¬THE¬REGION¬EVERY¬DAY¬ FACE¬COMMON¬PROBLEMS¬AND¬CHALLENGES¬"UT¬ALSO¬ EVERY¬DAY¬THEIR¬MANAGERS¬EXPERIENCE¬DIFlCULTIES¬AND¬ 4HIS¬WILL¬HOPEFULLY¬GIVE¬START¬TO¬A¬STRENGTHENED¬COLLABORATIVE¬ CHALLENGES¬OF¬DIRECT¬REGULAR¬CROSS BORDER¬COMMUNI NETWORK¬OF¬LOCAL¬AUTHORITIES ¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬INSTITUTIONS¬AND¬INDI CATION¬4HE¬FULL DAY¬MEETING¬GAVE¬THE¬PARTICIPANTS¬A¬ VIDUALS¬IN¬THE¬REGION¬ALTOGETHER¬4HE¬NEXT¬SERIES¬OF¬MEETINGS¬ HIGHLY¬APPRECIATED¬OPPORTUNITY¬TO¬DISCUSS¬COMMON¬ HAS¬ BEEN¬ PLANNED¬ TO¬ TAKE¬ PLACE¬ IN¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬+HUJAND ¬ AND¬ ISSUES¬FACE TO FACE¬AND¬NOT¬ONLY¬THE¬%.63%#¬AS 5ZBEKISTAN¬IN¬ SESSMENT¬AND¬WORK¬TO¬FOLLOW ¬BUT¬ALSO¬MANY¬OTHER¬ BURNING¬CONCERNS¬SHARED¬BY¬THE¬NEIGHBOURS 3OURCE¬5.%0 ¬5.$0 ¬/3#% ¬.!4/ ¬ #ONCLUSIONS¬AND¬OUTLOOK %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

NOT¬LEAST¬THROUGH¬FACILITATING¬INFORMATION¬EXCHANGE ¬4HIS¬WILL¬ SION MAKING¬ON¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AND¬SECURITY¬ISSUES ¬SUCH¬AS¬ ALSO¬BE¬A¬NATURAL¬FORUM¬FOR¬DISCUSSING¬PROGRESS¬AND¬PRIORITIES¬ !ARHUS¬CENTRES¬POSITIONED¬BETWEEN¬THE¬LOCAL¬'OVERNMENTS ¬ FOR¬THE¬VARIOUS¬%.63%#¬OPERATIONS CIVIL¬SOCIETY¬AND¬THE¬GENERAL¬PUBLIC¬!¬0UBLIC¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬ )NFORMATION¬#ENTRE¬WAS¬OPENED¬IN¬/SH¬IN¬ ¬AND¬PLANS¬ )N¬ADDITION¬%.63%#¬WILL¬PROVIDE¬ASSISTANCE¬TO¬THE¬ENVIRON ARE¬ UNDERWAY¬ FOR¬ A¬ SIMILAR¬ CENTRE¬ IN¬ +HUJAND¬ AS¬ WELL¬ AS¬ MENTAL¬COMMITTEES¬BY¬DEVELOPING¬A¬WEB¬PORTAL¬ABOUT¬THE¬ POSSIBLY¬IN¬THE¬5ZBEK¬PART¬OF¬THE¬VALLEY¬4HE¬CENTRES¬WILL¬ &ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬)T¬WILL¬COMPILE¬LOCAL¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬DATA¬ ALSO¬BECOME¬NATURAL¬PLATFORMS¬FOR¬DISSEMINATING¬%.63%#¬ AND¬ INFORMATION¬ OBTAINED¬ FROM¬ THE¬ NUMEROUS¬ %.63%#¬ INFORMATION¬LOCALLY¬AND¬STIMULATING¬FEEDBACK¬AND¬SUPPORT ¬ PROJECTS ¬AND¬SERVE¬AS¬A¬COMMON¬INFORMATION¬PLATFORM¬TO¬ FOR¬INSTANCE¬IN¬CONNECTION¬WITH¬LOCAL¬PROJECTS¬SUCH¬AS¬AS INITIATE¬REGULAR¬INFORMATION¬EXCHANGE SESSMENT¬AND¬MANAGEMENT¬OF¬INDUSTRIAL¬RISKS¬

4HE¬/3#%¬WILL¬CONTINUE¬TO¬FACILITATE¬THE¬ESTABLISHMENT¬OF¬ !S¬BEFORE ¬5.$0¬AND¬5.%0¬WILL¬ENCOURAGE¬THE¬INVOLVE LOCAL¬PUBLIC¬OUTLETS¬TO¬PROMOTE¬PUBLIC¬PARTICIPATION¬IN¬DECI MENT¬OF¬LOCAL¬MASS¬MEDIA¬IN¬REGIONAL¬ACTIVITIES¬DESIGNED¬TO¬

3UMMARY¬OF¬%.63%#¬FOLLOW UP¬ACTIVITIES

)MPLEMENTATION %.63%#¬PILLARS

,EADING¬OR #OUNTRIES¬OF¬ !SSESS #APACITY¬ 0OLICY¬DEV GANISATION OPERATION MENT BUILDING ELOPMENT

!DDRESSING¬SPECIlC¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬CONCERNS

,AND¬AND¬WATER¬RESOURCE¬MANAGEMENT¬ 5.$0¬¬'%& +92 ¬4!* ¬5:" IN¬THE¬5PPER¬3YR $ARYA¬"ASIN

2APID¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬HEALTH¬RISK¬ 5.%0¬¬-O%¬ +92 ¬4!* ¬5:" ASSESSMENT¬OF¬INDUSTRIAL¬FACILITIES¬AND¬ )TALY HAZARDOUS¬WASTE¬SITES 5RANIUM¬WASTE¬AND¬TAILINGS¬SITES .!4/ +92 ¬4!* ¬5:" .ATURAL¬DISASTER¬PREPAREDNESS¬FOR¬COM 5.$0 +92 ¬4!* ¬5:" MUNITIES¬IN¬HIGH RISK¬DISTRICTS

3TRENGTHENING¬INSTITUTIONS¬AND¬TRANSBOUNDARY¬DIALOGUE

3UPPORT¬FOR¬DIALOGUE¬BETWEEN¬LOCAL¬ /3#% ¬5.$0¬ +92 ¬4!* ¬5:" PROVINCIAL ¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AUTHORITIES ¬5.%0

#ENTRES¬FOR¬PUBLIC¬ACCESS¬TO¬ENVIRON /3#% +92¬¬4!* ¬ MENTAL¬INFORMATION¬AND¬INVOLVEMENT¬IN¬ LATER¬5:" DECISION MAKING

3UPPORT¬FOR¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬JOURNALISM¬ 5.$0¬¬5.%0 +92 ¬4!* ¬5:" REGIONAL¬FESTIVALS¬AND¬TRAINING 2EGIONAL¬WEB PORTAL 5.$0¬¬5.%0 +92 ¬4!* ¬5:" %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬CONmICT¬EARLY¬WARNING¬ 5.$0 +92¬¬4!* ¬ SYSTEM LATER¬5:" ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

STRENGTHEN¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬REPORTING¬4HE¬&IFTH¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬ ZATION¬OR¬EVEN¬CROSS ORGANIZATIONAL¬VENTURE¬4HE¬CONCRETE¬ &ESTIVAL¬OF¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬*OURNALISM¬WILL¬BE¬HELD¬IN¬!LMATY¬IN¬ ACTIVITIES¬DESCRIBED¬ABOVE¬ARE¬ONLY¬A¬SUBSET¬OF¬THOSE¬THAT¬ ¬-UCH¬AS¬THE¬¬FESTIVAL¬IN¬4ASHKENT ¬IT¬WILL¬BE¬A¬GOOD¬ MAY¬AND¬EVENTUALLY¬WILL¬BE¬CARRIED¬OUT¬IN¬THE¬LONGER TERM¬ OPPORTUNITY¬TO¬HIGHLIGHT¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬ISSUES¬IN¬ &OR¬EXAMPLE¬ONE¬ASPECT¬OF¬STRENGTHENING¬REGIONAL¬GOVERN THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬%.63%#¬ALSO¬PLANS¬TO¬COOPERATE¬WITH¬ ANCE¬ INVOLVES¬ ENGAGING¬ THE¬ COUNTRIES¬ IN¬ MORE¬ COMMON¬ LOCAL¬JOURNALISTS¬ON¬PRODUCTION¬ONCE¬PARTICULAR¬ISSUES¬ARE¬ WORK¬TO¬IMPLEMENT¬KEY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬CONVENTIONS¬WITH¬A¬ RIPE¬FOR¬INCREASED¬PUBLIC¬AND¬MEDIA¬ATTENTION TRANSBOUNDARY¬COMPONENT¬)N¬THIS¬WE¬EXPECT¬GREATER¬COOP ERATION¬BETWEEN¬%.63%#¬AND¬THE¬CONVENTIONS¬SECRETARIATS¬ &INALLY ¬THIS¬ASSESSMENT¬ONLY¬CONSTITUTES¬A¬BASELINE¬WHEREAS¬ )T¬IS¬VITALLY¬IMPORTANT¬THAT¬THERE¬SHOULD¬BE¬TANGIBLE¬STRATEGIC¬ MORE¬LONG TERM¬MONITORING¬OF¬DEVELOPMENTS¬IN¬THE¬ENVIRON COOPERATION¬WITH¬REGIONAL¬PROGRAMMES¬AND¬INSTITUTIONS¬SUCH¬ MENT¬AND¬SECURITY¬lELD¬IS¬NEEDED¬FOR¬BOTH¬INTERNATIONAL¬AND¬ AS¬THE¬2EGIONAL¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬!CTION¬0LAN ¬THE¬2EGIONAL¬%N THE¬LOCAL¬AUDIENCES¬%.63%#¬WILL¬COOPERATE¬WITH¬EXISTING¬ VIRONMENTAL¬#ENTRE¬FOR¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬THE¬)NTERNATIONAL¬&UND¬ CONmICT¬PREVENTION¬AND¬MONITORING¬PROGRAMMES¬TO¬STRENGTH FOR¬3AVING¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA ¬AND¬ITS¬SUBORDINATE¬COMMISSIONS EN¬THEIR¬ENVIRONMENT¬AND¬RESOURCE ORIENTED¬COMPONENTS¬FOR¬ THE¬BENElT¬OF¬FORWARD LOOKING¬ANALYSIS ¬COUPLED¬WITH¬REGULAR¬ /NE¬OUTCOME¬THAT¬%.63%#¬WILL¬HARDLY¬BE¬ABLE¬TO¬DELIVER¬ MONITORING¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬QUALITY¬4HROUGH¬THE¬DEVELOP IS¬TO¬BRING¬INVESTMENT¬IN¬REAL ¬PHYSICAL¬INFRASTRUCTURE¬SUCH¬ MENT¬OF¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬INDICATORS¬FOR¬AN¬EARLY¬WARNING¬SYSTEM¬ AS¬CANALS ¬DAMS ¬lLTERS¬OR¬SEALING¬FOR¬TAILING¬PONDS¬(ERE¬ FOR¬SOCIAL¬CONmICT ¬%.63%#¬WILL¬IMPROVE¬THE¬CRISIS¬PREVENTION¬ WE¬HOPE¬THAT¬BY¬CONlRMING¬AND¬HIGHLIGHTING¬NEW¬PRIORITIES¬ TOOLS¬UTILIZED¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬6ALLEY¬)NVOLVING¬THE¬RESPONSE¬ AND¬RECONlRMING¬OLD¬ONES ¬WE¬CAN¬HELP¬TO¬INTEREST¬LARGER¬ SIDE¬OF¬THE¬'OVERNMENTS¬AT¬AN¬EARLY¬STAGE¬WILL¬DEVELOP¬THE¬ INSTITUTIONS¬WITH¬THE¬NECESSARY¬CAPABILITIES¬AND¬RESOURCES¬ CAPABILITIES¬FOR¬COPING¬WITH¬INCREASED¬SOCIAL¬TENSION ¬THEREBY¬ IN¬MAKING¬LONG TERM¬CAPITAL¬INVESTMENTS¬ REDUCING¬THE¬RISK¬OF¬CONmICT¬SITUATIONS¬4HIS¬WILL¬ALSO¬PROVIDE¬ INPUT¬INTO¬%.63%#¬PROJECTS¬IN¬ALL¬THE¬OTHER¬CLUSTERS !LL¬IN¬ALL ¬WE¬WELCOME¬ANY¬IDEAS¬THAT¬MAY¬STRENGTHEN¬%. 63%#S¬ CONCLUSIONS ¬ APPROACH¬ AND¬ PORTFOLIO¬ OF¬ ACTIONS¬ #LEARLY ¬THE¬RANGE¬OF¬NEEDS¬AND¬ISSUES¬OUTLINED¬IN¬THIS¬AS n¬WITH¬THE¬LONG TERM¬AIM¬OF¬BRINGING¬GREATER¬SECURITY¬AND¬A¬ SESSMENT¬FAR¬EXCEEDS¬THE¬CAPACITIES¬OF¬ANY¬SINGLE¬ORGANI CLEANER¬ENVIRONMENT¬TO¬THE¬PEOPLE¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY

;MXLGEVIXLVIISVJSYVXLSYWERHQIRQE]FI QEMRXEMRIHF]XLIVIZIRYIWSJ*IVKERE

1UOTATIONS¬IN¬BLUE¬ARE¬TAKEN¬AND¬SHORTENED¬FROM¬THE¬h-EMOIRS¬ AND¬THE¬REGION¬OF¬THE¬&ERGANA¬VALLEY¬4HERE¬IS¬MUCH¬ON¬THE¬POLITICAL¬ OF¬ "ABURv¬ OR¬ "ABUR NAMA ¬ THE¬ WORK¬ OF¬ THE¬ GREAT GREAT GREAT AND¬MILITARY¬STRUGGLES¬AT¬THE¬END¬OF¬S ¬BUT¬ALSO¬OBSERVATIONS¬ GRANDSON¬ OF¬ 4IMUR¬ 4AMERLANE ¬:AHIRUDDIN¬ -UHAMMAD¬ "ABUR¬ ON¬THE¬PHYSICAL¬AND¬HUMAN¬GEOGRAPHY ¬THE¬mORA¬AND¬FAUNA ¬NO ¬"ABUR NAMA¬IS¬SAID¬TO¬hRANK¬WITH¬THE¬#ONFESSIONS¬ MADS¬IN¬THEIR¬PASTURES¬AND¬URBAN¬ENVIRONMENTS¬ENRICHED¬BY¬THE¬ OF¬ 3T¬ !UGUSTINE¬ AND¬ 2OUSSEAU ¬ AND¬ THE¬ MEMOIRS¬ OF¬ 'IBBON¬ ARCHITECTURE ¬MUSIC¬AND¬0ERSIAN¬AND¬4URKIC¬LITERATURE¬4RANSLATION¬ AND¬.EWTONv¬!MONG¬OTHER¬TALES ¬IT¬TELLS¬THE¬STORY¬OF¬THE¬PRINCES¬ BY¬$ANIEL¬#¬7AUGH STRUGGLE¬TO¬ASSERT¬AND¬DEFEND¬HIS¬CLAIM¬TO¬THE¬THRONE¬OF¬3AMARKAND¬ HTTPDEPTSWASHINGTONEDUUWCHSILKROADTEXTSBABUR #ONCLUSIONS¬AND¬OUTLOOK¬¬.OTES %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

.OTES ¬4HE¬PROJECT ¬BASED¬AT¬THE¬3WISS¬&EDERAL¬)NSTITUTE¬OF¬4ECHNOLOGY ¬ ¬/FlCIAL¬STATISTICS¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬SUGGEST¬AN¬UNEMPLOYMENT¬RATE¬ :àRICH¬AND¬THE¬3WISS¬&OUNDATION¬FOR¬0EACE ¬ANALYSED¬MORE¬THAN¬ OF¬¬FOR¬ ¬WHILE¬THE¬%)5¬SUGGESTS¬lGURES¬AROUND¬ ¬ ¬CASES¬OF¬CONmICT ¬ABOUT¬HALF¬OF¬WHICH¬CROSSED¬THE¬THRESHOLD¬OF¬ MULTILATERAL¬ AGENCIES¬ EVEN¬ ¬ %)5 ¬ ¬ ¬ !T¬ THE¬ SAME¬ VIOLENT¬OUTCOMES¬"AECHLER ¬ ¬ TIME ¬¬OF¬THE¬+YRGYZSTANS¬POPULATION¬IS¬UNDER¬¬AND¬WILL¬ SOON¬BE¬ENTERING¬THE¬WORKFORCE¬SOURCE¬IBIDEM ¬5NEMPLOYMENT¬ ¬!¬RESEARCH¬TEAM¬AT¬4ORONTO¬5NIVERSITY ¬LED¬BY¬4HOMAS¬(OMER IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬IS¬OFlCIALLY¬REPORTED¬AT¬¬IN¬¬SOURCE¬IBID ¬ $IXON¬ WHILE¬)#'¬ESTIMATES¬UNEMPLOYMENT¬TO¬BE¬OVER¬¬)#' ¬ ¬ )N¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AS¬LITTLE¬AS¬¬OF¬THE¬WORKFORCE¬IS¬REGISTERED¬AS¬ ¬4HE¬PRESENCE¬OF¬SEVEN¬ENCLAVES¬LOCATED¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ UNEMPLOYED ¬BUT¬ACCORDING¬TO¬5.)#%&¬¬OF¬THE¬ ¬AGE¬ INCREASES¬THE¬COMPLEXITY¬OF¬THE¬BORDER¬QUESTION¬3EVERAL¬UNSOLVED¬ GROUP¬ ARE¬ WITHOUT¬ WORK¬ 4HE¬ )NSTITUTE¬ FOR¬ 2EGIONAL¬ 3TUDIES¬ IN¬ QUESTIONS¬RELATED¬TO¬THE¬BORDER¬DELIMITATION¬AND¬DEMARCATION¬PRO "ISHKEK¬REPORTS¬THAT¬IN¬THE¬5ZBEK¬PART¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬AS¬ CESSES¬ARE¬STRAINING¬THE¬RELATIONS¬BETWEEN¬THE¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬STATES¬ MANY¬AS¬¬OF¬ALL¬ABLE BODIED¬PEOPLE¬UNDER¬¬WERE¬UNEM 4HE¬SITUATION¬HAS¬BECOME¬EVEN¬MORE¬DIFlCULT¬WITH¬THE¬INCREASED¬ PLOYED¬IN¬¬&%7%2 ¬ ¬(ERE¬TOO¬¬OF¬THE¬POPULATION¬ MILITARIZATION¬OF¬THE¬BORDERS¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬AFTER¬THE¬¬AND¬¬ IS¬UNDER¬¬AND¬WILL¬SOON¬BE¬ENTERING¬THE¬LABOUR¬FORCE ¬PUSHING¬ MILITARY¬INCURSIONS¬BY¬THE¬)SLAMIC¬-OVEMENT¬OF¬5ZBEKISTAN¬)-5 UNEMPLOYMENT¬FURTHER¬UP¬

¬4HE¬/RGANISATION¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬#OOPERATION¬¬WAS¬CREATED¬IN¬ ¬ %)5¬ 6IEWS7IRE ¬ +YRGYZ¬ 2EPUBLIC¬ 2IOT TORN¬ REGION¬ HOPES¬ FOR¬ ¬UNDER¬THE¬NAME¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬%CONOMIC¬#OMMUNITY¬OR¬ STABILITY ¬¬-AY¬ #!%#¬BY¬+AZAKHSTAN ¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AND¬+YRGYZSTAN¬4AJIKISTAN¬JOINED¬ THE¬ORGANIZATION¬IN¬ ¬AND¬2USSIA¬IN¬ ¬/NE¬OF¬THE¬STRIKING¬lNDINGS¬IN¬4AJIKISTAN¬AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬IS¬THE¬ PARADOXICAL¬SITUATION¬BY¬WHICH¬THE¬POPULATIONS¬LIVING¬IN¬PRODUCTIVE¬ ¬4HE¬PRESENCE¬OF¬5IGHUR¬MINORITIES¬IS¬A¬SENSITIVE¬ISSUE¬FOR¬RELATIONS¬ LOWLANDS¬SUCH¬AS¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ARE¬OFTEN¬THE¬MOST¬VULNER BETWEEN¬#HINA¬AND¬+AZAKHSTAN¬AND¬+YRGYZSTAN ABLE ¬WHEREAS¬LESS¬PRODUCTIVE ¬MOUNTAINOUS¬REGIONS¬ARE¬WEALTHIER¬ 4HIS¬IS¬LARGELY¬DUE¬TO¬COTTON ¬PRODUCTION¬OF¬WHICH¬IS¬COMPULSORY¬ ¬4HE¬STRUGGLE¬OVER¬AN¬OFlCIAL¬STATE¬LANGUAGE¬IS¬A¬SOURCE¬OF¬TENSION¬ FOR¬LOWLAND¬POPULATIONS¬BUT¬YIELDS¬A¬VERY¬POOR¬RETURN¬)N¬CONTRAST¬ IN¬THE¬THREE¬COUNTRIES¬0OLITICAL¬LEADERS¬ARE¬TRYING¬TO¬ESTABLISH¬THE¬ NON COTTON¬FARMERS¬IN¬THE¬HIGHLANDS¬CAN¬GROW¬WHATEVER¬THEY¬WANT¬ PRIMACY¬OF¬INDIGENOUS¬LANGUAGES¬AND¬REDUCE¬USE¬OF¬2USSIAN¬AS¬ AND¬BENElT¬FROM¬THE¬HIGH¬PRICE¬OF¬GOODS¬IN¬RELATIVELY¬SHORT¬SUPPLY¬ THE¬REGIONS¬LINGUA¬FRANCA¬,ANGUAGE¬WILL¬BE¬AN¬IMPORTANT¬FACTOR¬ IN¬LOCAL¬MARKETS¬DUE¬TO¬THE¬PREVALENCE¬OF¬COTTON )N¬4AJIKISTAN¬LAND¬ IN¬THE¬SEPARATION¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬INTO¬THREE¬LINGUISTIC¬REGIONS¬AND¬ REFORM¬HAS¬BEEN¬VERY¬SUCCESSFUL¬IN¬NON COTTON¬AREAS¬)N¬COTTON CAN¬AGGRAVATE¬REGIONAL¬COOPERATION¬!MONG¬THE¬COUNTRIES¬OF¬THE¬ GROWING¬AREAS¬IT¬HAS¬ENCOUNTERED¬OBSTACLES &ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬5ZBEKISTAN¬WILL¬MAINLY¬USE¬ITS¬NATIVE¬LANGUAGE¬ WITH¬,ATIN¬SCRIPT¬INTRODUCED¬IN¬SCHOOLS¬IN¬ ¬4AJIKISTAN¬WILL¬BE¬ ¬!DDRESSING¬SOME¬OF¬THESE¬CONCERNS ¬A¬'%& lNANCED¬PROJECT¬ON¬ SUBJECT¬TO¬CULTURAL¬INmUENCE¬FROM¬)RAN ¬AND¬+YRGHYZSTAN¬WILL¬RETAIN¬ BIODIVERSITY¬CONSERVATION¬IN¬7ESTERN¬4IEN 3HAN¬ALONG¬THE¬BORDERS¬ THE¬USE¬OF¬THE¬#YRILLIC¬ALPHABET¬WITHIN¬A¬2USSIAN DOMINATED¬ZONE¬ OF¬+AZAKHSTAN ¬+YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬5ZBEKISTAN¬IS¬IMPLEMENTED¬THROUGH¬ OF¬COMMUNICATION¬!PPEI¬AND¬3KORSCH ¬ THE¬7ORLD¬"ANK

¬ &OR¬ EXAMPLE¬ CLOSING¬ OF¬ THE¬ BORDER¬ HAS¬ FUELLED¬ A¬ LARGE¬ ILLEGAL¬ ¬$URING¬THE¬3OVIET¬ERA¬5ZBEK¬AND¬4AJIK¬SHEPHERDS¬USED¬TO¬TAKE¬ ECONOMY¬BETWEEN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AND¬+YRGYZSTAN¬SMUGGLING¬OF¬FUEL¬ THEIR¬HERDS¬TO¬+YRGYZSTAN¬IN¬SUMMER¬EG¬)SFARA¬TO¬,EYLEK¬REGIONS ¬ AND¬COTTON¬FROM¬5ZBEKISTAN 4HIS¬PRACTICE¬STILL¬CONTINUES¬BUT¬BORDERS¬HAVE¬RESTRICTED¬IT¬3HEP HERDS¬MUST¬PAY¬BRIBES¬AND¬RUN¬THE¬RISK¬OF¬THEIR¬CATTLE¬BEING¬STOLEN¬ ¬ $ATA¬ FOR¬ +YRGYZSTAN¬ %)5¬ ¬ ¬ lGURES¬ PROVIDED¬ BY¬ THE¬ WHEN¬CROSSING¬BORDERS¬-ANY¬NOW¬HAVE¬TO¬STAY¬IN¬THEIR¬COUNTRY ¬ +YRGYZ¬ .ATIONAL¬ 3TATISTICAL¬ #OMMITTEE¬ $ATA¬ FOR¬ 4AJIKISTAN¬)-&¬ PUTTING¬A¬STRAIN¬ON¬THE¬ENVIRONMENT¬NOT¬SUITABLE¬FOR¬PASTURE ¬ON¬ ¬FOR¬5ZBEKISTAN¬%)5¬¬ HERDS¬AND¬CONSEQUENTLY¬ON¬SHEPHERDS¬LIVING¬STANDARDS¬4HE¬LACK¬ OF¬CONTROL¬OVER¬NEW¬MIGRATORY¬PATTERNS¬HAS¬ALSO¬PUT¬AN¬ADDITIONAL¬ ¬4HE¬STATES¬OF¬THE¬REGION¬HAVE¬BEEN¬UNABLE¬TO¬MAINTAIN¬THE¬PREVIOUS¬ STRAIN¬ON¬VETERINARY¬CONTROLS ¬INCREASING¬THE¬PREVALENCE¬OF¬ANIMAL LEVELS¬OF¬INVESTMENT¬IN¬THE¬SOCIAL¬SECTOR ¬ESPECIALLY¬IN¬EDUCATION¬ TRANSMITTED¬DISEASES¬SUCH¬AS¬BRUCELLOSIS AND¬HEALTH ¬)NTERNAL¬RENEWABLE¬WATER¬RESOURCES¬INCLUDE¬THE¬AVERAGE¬ANNUAL¬ ¬)N¬RECENT¬YEARS ¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬HAS¬EXPERIENCED¬OUTSTANDING¬AG mOW¬OF¬RIVERS¬AND¬THE¬RECHARGE¬OF¬GROUNDWATER¬GENERATED¬FROM¬ GREGATE¬GROWTH¬RATES ¬AMONG¬THE¬HIGHEST¬WITHIN¬THE¬#)3¬COMMUNITY¬ PRECIPITATION¬OCCURRING¬WITHIN¬A¬COUNTRYS¬BORDERS 9ET¬THE¬REGION¬SUFFERS¬FROM¬SERIOUS¬POVERTY¬AND¬INEQUALITY¬UP¬TO¬ ¬OF¬THE¬WHOLE¬POPULATION¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬IS¬DElNED¬AS¬ ¬)N¬THE¬FUTURE¬THIS¬SITUATION¬MAY¬CHANGE¬WHEN¬LOOKING¬AMONG¬ POOR¬/#(!¬ ¬&%7%2¬¬ ¬ OTHERS¬AT¬THE¬LOCAL¬IMPACT¬OF¬GLOBAL¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

¬0ROTOCOL¬.O¬¬OF¬THE¬-EETING¬OF¬3CIENTIlC 4ECHNICAL¬#OUNCIL¬ OF¬THE¬LAKE¬,OCAL¬AGRICULTURE¬AND¬TOURISM¬SUFFERED¬LOSSES¬h2EGARDLESS¬ OF¬THE¬-INISTRY¬OF¬,AND¬2ECLAMATION¬AND¬7ATER¬-ANAGEMENT¬OF¬ OF¬WHETHER¬ALL¬THESE¬FEARS¬WERE¬WARRANTED ¬THE¬SOCIAL¬AND¬ECONOMIC¬ THE¬5332 ¬HELD¬ON¬&EBRUARY¬ ¬¬IN¬-OSCOW ¬PROVIDED¬WATER¬ CONSEQUENCES¬OF¬THE¬PANIC¬WERE¬QUITE¬REALv¬.ORLEN ¬ DISTRIBUTION¬LIMITS¬FOR¬THE¬3YR¬$ARYA¬RIVER¬0!¬#ONSORTIUM¬'ROUP¬ AND¬0!¬#ONSULTING ¬¬¬7EGERICH ¬ ¬4HREETAILINGSPONDSNEARTHE3UMSAR2IVERCONTAININGM TONNESOFRADIOACTIVEURANIUMROCK LEAD ANDTOXICHEAVYMETAL ¬!NNUAL¬AGREEMENTS¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬THE¬,ONG¬4ERM¬&RAMEWORK¬!GREE SALTSHAVEBEENPARTIALLYERODEDALLOWINGACONSTANTINFLOWOFHEAVY MENT¬IN¬-ARCH¬ METALPOLLUTANTS4HE3ANITATION!UTHORITYOF+YRGYZSTANREPORTSTHAT THERIVERpSMANGANESELEVELISNINETIMESHIGHERANDTHECADMIUM ¬ 3EE¬ 3ODIK¬ -UMINOV¬ AND¬ 6LADISLAV¬ 0OPLAVSKY¬ h5ZBEKISTANS¬ CONTENTTIMESHIGHERTHANTHEMAXIMUMPERMISSIBLECONCEN LAKES¬BENElT¬OR¬HARM v¬IN¬5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL ¬ ¬AS¬WELL¬ TRATIONSNEITHEROFTHESEELEMENTSCANBEFLUSHEDFROMTHEHUMAN AS¬COVERAGE¬FROM¬%.63%#¬MEDIA¬TRAINING¬IN¬4ASHKENT¬IN¬¬AT¬ BODY 4HEREAREEIGHTRADIOACTIVEWASTEDUMPSIN3HEKAFTAR SEVEN HTTPENRINGRIDANOMEDIATOURCFM ARTICLE¬ OFWHICHARELOCATEDNEARAPARTMENTBLOCKS3OURCES$ANIIL+YSH TOBAYEV q5RANIUM7ASTE)N+YRGYZSTANrq¬ÆÉ½É¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È»r ¬3OURCE¬)2). ¬AVAILABLE¬AT¬HTTPWWWEDCNEWSSE#ASES+YR IN %NVIRONMENTAL 0OLICY 2EVIEW 7INTER 6OL GYZ'ROUNDWATERHTML¬ .O P q2ADIOACTIVE SPOTS ON THE MAP OF +YRGYZSTANr q«»¿ÃÉ»ÅÍÃ½ÈÖÀ ÍÉÒÅÃ È» Å»ËÍÀ ¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È»r tqÀÆÉ½ÉÄ ¬IBID ÇÃËr HTTPWWWNTIORGDBNISPROFSKYRGYZWASTEHTM¬

¬)RRIGATION¬WATER¬IS¬ALLOCATED¬AMONG¬WATER¬BASIN¬AUTHORITIES¬AC ¬0RELIMINARY¬RESULTS¬OF¬SAMPLING¬BY¬THE¬)NSTITUTE¬OF¬0HYSICS¬OF¬THE¬ CORDING¬TO¬QUOTAS¬DECIDED¬BY¬THE¬-INISTRY¬OF¬!GRICULTURE¬AND¬7ATER¬ 4AJIK¬!CADEMY¬OF¬3CIENCE ¬ 2ESOURCES¬OF¬5ZBEKISTAN¬!¬BOARD¬INSPECTORATE ¬AT¬THE¬-INISTRY¬IS¬ SET¬TO¬VERIFY¬THAT¬WATER¬USERS¬RESPECT¬THE¬QUOTAS ¬IT¬CAN¬OTHERWISE¬ ¬&OLLOWING¬5ZBEKISTANS¬.ATIONAL¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬!CTION¬0LAN¬FOR¬ IMPOSE¬ADMINISTRATIVE¬SANCTIONS ¬THE¬3TATE¬#OMMITTEE¬FOR¬.ATURE¬0ROTECTION¬CARRIES¬OUT¬RE HABILITATION¬WORK¬IN¬THE¬#HARKESAR¬AREA¬WITH¬5.$0S¬CO lNANCING ¬&OR¬EXAMPLE¬THE¬4AJIK¬4AD!:¬ALUMINIUM¬SMELTER¬IN¬4URSUNZADE ¬ 4AJIKISTAN ¬IS¬THE¬BIGGEST¬ENTERPRISE¬IN¬THE¬COUNTRY¬%"2$ ¬ ¬ ¬ 3UMSAR¬ /RE¬ -ANAGEMENT¬ !UTHORITY¬ MINED¬ AND¬ PROCESSED¬ AND¬A¬STRATEGIC¬SOURCE¬OF¬HARD¬CURRENCY¬4HE¬5ZBEK¬COPPER¬SMELTER¬ COMPLEX ORE¬ ZINC ¬ COPPER ¬LEAD¬ AND¬ CADMIUM¬ $JENCHURAEV ¬ IN¬!LMALYK¬AND¬A¬FERROUS¬METALLURGY¬PLANT¬IN¬"EKABAD¬ARE¬ALSO¬IM ¬ PORTANT¬PLAYERS¬IN¬BOTH¬EXPORT¬TRADE¬AND¬LOCAL¬JOB¬CREATION¬/N¬THE¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬ASPECTS¬OF¬THESE¬INDUSTRIES¬SEE¬3ODIK¬-UMINOV¬AND¬ ¬4HIS¬PLANT ¬ON¬THE¬BORDER¬BETWEEN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬5ZBEKISTAN ¬ 6LADISLAV¬0OPLAVSKY ¬h4O¬SAVE¬WHAT¬IS¬LEFTv¬IN¬5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL¬ MINED¬LEAD¬AND¬ZINC¬ORE¬FROM¬¬TO¬¬4HE¬RISKS¬ARE¬IN¬RELA A ¬AND¬COVERAGE¬FROM¬%.63%#¬MEDIA¬TRAINING¬IN¬4ASHKENT¬IN¬ TION¬TO¬ITS¬TAILING¬IMPOUNDMENT¬WHICH ¬ACCORDING¬TO¬$JENCHURAEV¬ ¬!VAILABLE¬AT¬HTTPENRINGRIDANOMEDIATOURCFM ARTICLE ¬ ¬ ¬HAS¬NOT¬BEEN¬REHABILITATED HTTPENRINGRIDANOMEDIATOURCFM ARTICLE¬ ¬4HE¬!LMALYK¬PLANT¬IS¬ACTUALLY¬IN¬THE¬4ASHKENT¬REGION ¬HOWEVER¬THE¬ ¬)N¬¬TAILING¬POND¬Nª¬¬IN¬-AILUU 3UU¬BROKE ¬RELEASING¬ABOUT¬ POLLUTION¬COMING¬FROM¬THIS¬OPERATION¬IS¬A¬SOURCE¬OF¬CONCERN¬¬IN¬THE¬ ¬CUBIC¬METRES¬OF¬RADIOACTIVE¬MATERIALS¬INTO¬THE¬RIVER¬4HE¬ 4AJIK¬PART¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY RADIOACTIVE¬MUDmOW¬CAUSED¬WIDESPREAD¬DESTRUCTION¬AND¬CONTAMI NATION¬OF¬HUGE¬AREAS¬!LEKSEI¬%RMOLOV ¬h!TOMIC¬STRONGHOLDS¬OF¬THE¬ ¬!CCORDING¬TO¬RECORDS¬OF¬THE¬3TATE¬#OMMITTEE¬FOR¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬ 4IEN¬3HANv¬IN¬5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL ¬¬ADDITIONAL¬INFORMATION¬ 0ROTECTION¬AND¬&ORESTRY¬OF¬4AJIKISTAN ¬IN¬¬4AJIKISTAN¬EVALUATED¬ CAN¬ BE¬ FOUND¬ UNDER¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬ IN¬ 5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL ¬ THE¬DAMAGE¬FROM¬AN¬OIL¬SPILL¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬AS¬ ¬ROUBLES¬ A ¬ AVAILABLE¬ AT¬ HTTPENRINGRIDANOMEDIATOUR ¬ -OST¬ 4HERE¬ WAS¬ FORMAL¬ COMMUNICATION¬ BETWEEN¬ THE¬ TWO¬ COUNTRIES¬¬ RECENTLY ¬ ON¬ ¬ !PRIL¬ ¬ A¬ LANDSLIDE¬ HIT¬ AN¬ AREA¬ SURROUNDING¬ 0OLLUTION¬FROM¬OIL¬PRODUCTION¬WAS¬NAMED¬TO¬%.63%#¬AS¬A¬CONCERN¬ -AILUU 3UU ¬ BLOCKING¬ THE¬ RIVER¬ )2). ¬ AVAILABLE¬ AT¬ HTTPWWW BY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬AUTHORITIES¬IN¬$USHANBE IRINNEWSORGREPORTASP 2EPORT)$3ELECT2EGION!SIA3 ELECT#OUNTRY+92'9:34!. ¬3OURCES¬%#(/¬AND¬OFlCIAL¬NATIONAL¬DATA

¬!¬SIMILAR¬EXAMPLE ¬BUT¬ON¬A¬NATIONAL¬SCALE ¬IS¬THE¬CYANIDE¬SPILL¬INTO¬ ¬4HERE¬ARE¬MANY¬GLACIERS¬AND¬GLACIAL¬LAKES¬IN¬THE¬HIGH¬ALTITUDE¬ A¬TRIBUTARY¬OF¬THE¬)SSYK +UL¬LAKE¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬ON¬¬-AY¬¬0ANIC¬ AREAS¬!¬RECENT¬STUDY¬SHOWS¬THAT¬IN¬THE¬MOUNTAINS¬SURROUNDING¬THE¬ ENSUED¬DUE¬TO¬THE¬LACK¬OF¬RELIABLE¬PUBLIC¬INFORMATION¬ON¬THE¬IMPACTS¬OF¬ &ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬THERE¬ARE¬OVER¬¬GLACIAL¬LAKES¬FEATURING¬POTENTIAL¬ THESE¬CHEMICALS ¬HOW¬FAR¬THEY¬TRAVEL¬AND¬POSSIBLE¬EFFECTS¬ON¬THE¬HEALTH¬ OUTBURST¬mOOD¬',/& ¬RISKS ¬AND¬OTHER¬DANGEROUS¬SITUATIONS ¬SUCH¬ .OTES %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

AS¬LANDSLIDE¬DAM¬OUTBURST¬mOODS¬,$/&S ¬/NE¬EXAMPLE¬IS¬THE¬ ¬-UDmOWS¬AND¬mOODS¬ARE¬SOMETIMES¬CONSIDERED¬AS¬THE¬MOST¬ CATASTROPHIC¬mOOD¬IN¬THE¬3HOHIMARDON¬VALLEY¬SEE¬THE¬MAIN¬TEXT ¬ DESTRUCTIVE¬NATURAL¬EVENTS¬IN¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬4HE¬HIGH¬DENSITY¬ THAT¬KILLED¬NEARLY¬¬PEOPLE¬AND¬DESTROYED¬MANY¬HOUSEHOLDS¬)N¬ OF¬THE¬RIVER¬NETWORK ¬STEEP¬SLOPES¬AND¬DEGRADED¬SOIL¬COVER¬INCREASE¬ ¬THE¬!SHT¬6ALLEY¬OF¬.ORTHERN¬4AJIKISTAN¬WAS¬HIT¬BY¬AN¬,$/&¬ MUDmOW¬RISK ¬ESPECIALLY¬IN¬THE¬PIEDMONT¬PARTS¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ KILLING¬¬PEOPLE ¬AND¬DESTROYING¬OR¬DAMAGING¬SEVERAL¬HUNDRED¬ VALLEY¬-UDmOWS¬ARE¬FORMED¬DUE¬TO¬INTERACTION¬OF¬HYDRO METEORO HOUSES¬AND¬ELEMENTS¬OF¬INFRASTRUCTURE LOGICAL¬AND¬GEOLOGICAL¬FACTORS¬CLOUDBURSTS ¬RAPID¬SNOW¬MELTING ¬ STEEP¬SLOPES ¬EASILY¬WASHED¬GROUNDS ¬ETC¬!LMOST¬ALL¬THE¬PIEDMONT¬ ¬4HE¬MOUNTAIN¬AREAS¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬INCLUDING¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬ TERRITORY¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬IS¬VULNERABLE¬TO¬MUDmOWS ¬INCLUDING¬ ARE¬SEISMICALLY¬ACTIVE¬.ATIONAL¬3EISMOLOGICAL¬.ETWORKS¬RECORDED¬ RADIOACTIVE¬WASTE¬SITES¬/VER¬ ¬RIVER¬BASINS¬ARE¬ESTIMATED¬TO¬ OVER¬¬EARTHQUAKES¬OF¬MAGNITUDE¬-¬DURING¬THE¬PERIOD¬ HOLD¬FROM¬MODERATE¬TO¬HIGH¬MUDmOW¬RISK¬)N¬SPRING¬ ¬IN¬4AJIKI ¬ ONLY¬ IN¬ +YRGYZSTAN ¬ MOSTLY¬ IN¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬ AND¬ ITS¬ STAN¬AND¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬TORRENTIAL¬RAINS¬CAUSED¬SEVERE¬mOODING¬WITH¬ MOUNTAINS¬$ESTRUCTIVE¬EARTHQUAKES¬TOOK¬PLACE¬IN¬.AMANGAN ¬!NDI OVER¬ ¬PEOPLE¬AFFECTED¬AND¬MANY¬BUILDINGS¬AND¬ELEMENTS¬OF¬ JAN ¬&ERGHANA ¬*ALAL !BAD ¬)SFARA¬AREAS¬-AXIMUM¬SEISMIC¬ACTIVITY¬ INFRASTRUCTURE¬DESTROYED¬4HE¬YEARS¬¬AND¬¬ALSO¬FEATURED¬ HAS¬BEEN¬OBSERVED¬IN¬THE¬#HATKAL ¬!LAI ¬AND¬&ERGHANA¬MOUNTAINS ¬ mOODING¬ EVENTS¬ IN¬ MANY¬ AREAS ¬ INCLUDING¬ THE¬ 3YR¬ $ARYA¬ DELTA¬ WHERE¬ ¬-¬EVENTS¬ARE¬POSSIBLE¬OFlCIAL¬NATIONAL¬DATA 7INTER¬ICE¬AND¬A¬FAILURE¬TO¬OBSERVE¬REGIONAL¬WATER¬USE¬AGREEMENTS¬ TRIGGED¬mOODS¬ALONG¬THE¬3YR¬$ARYA¬2IVER¬IN¬+YZYL /RDA ¬3OUTHERN¬ -OST¬TERRITORY¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬AND¬ADJACENT¬MOUNTAINS¬ARE¬ +AZAKHSTAN¬IN¬EARLY¬¬OFlCIAL¬NATIONAL¬DATA VULNERABLE¬TO¬EARTHQUAKES¬WITH¬MANY¬SMALL¬AND¬LARGE¬SETTLEMENTS¬ LOCATED¬ IN¬ THE¬ EPICENTRE¬ ZONES¬ OF¬ THE¬ POTENTIALLY¬ DEVASTATING¬ ¬+YRGYZSTAN¬AND¬4AJIKISTAN¬ARE¬PARTIES¬TO¬5.%#%¬!ARHUS¬#ONVEN EARTHQUAKES¬)SFARA ¬*ALAL !BAD ¬/SH ¬+ARA BALTA ¬ETC ¬3OME¬¬ TION¬ON¬!CCESS¬TO¬)NFORMATION ¬0UBLIC¬0ARTICIPATION¬IN¬$ECISION SETTLEMENTS¬ARE¬THREATENED¬BY¬BOTH¬STRONG¬EARTHQUAKES¬AND¬RE MAKING¬AND¬!CCESS¬TO¬*USTICE¬IN¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬-ATTERS ¬BUT¬ITS¬ SULTANT¬RISKS¬MUDSLIDES ¬UNSTABLE¬GROUND¬ÈÀÌÍ»¼ÃÆ×ÈÖÀÎÒ»ÌÍÅÃ FULL SCALE¬IMPLEMENTATION¬ON¬THE¬LOCAL¬LEVEL¬WILL¬REQUIRE¬CONSIDERABLE¬ ÍÀËËÃÍÉËÃÃ ÊÉ½ÀËÐÈÉÌÍÃ ¬ETC ¬4HE¬EARTHQUAKES¬- ¬THAT¬STRUCK¬ RESOURCES¬AND¬TIME THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬ AND¬ ADJACENT¬ MOUNTAIN¬ TERRITORY¬ FROM¬ ¬ ONWARDS¬ CAUSED¬ SEVERAL¬ THOUSANDS¬ CASUALTIES¬ AND¬ MILLIONS¬ OF¬ ¬ 4HOUGH¬ RELIABLE¬ STATISTICAL¬ DATA¬ ARE¬ NOT¬ AVAILABLE ¬ A¬ RANGE¬ OF¬ DOLLARS¬IN¬ECONOMIC¬LOSS¬OFlCIAL¬NATIONAL¬DATA ANECDOTAL¬INFORMATION¬CONlRM¬THIS¬TREND ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

2EFERENCES¬AND¬SOURCES !"$5+!0!2/6 ( )-!.(/$*!%6 #( 3/+/,/6!% %N #/.#!¬+¬AND¬$!"%,+/¬'¬$¬%DS ¬ ¬4HE¬#ASE¬FOR¬%NVIRON VIRONMENTAL)MPACTSOF5RANIUM4AILINGSIN+YRGYZSTAN;¼¿ÖÅ»Ê»ËÉ½ MENTAL¬0EACEMAKING ¬7ASHINGTON ¬7OODROW¬7ILSON¬#ENTER¬0RESS ² £Ç»ÈÐÉ¿Á»À½²® ¬ÉÅÉÆÉ½» £¸ÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÒÀÌÅÉÀ½ÉÂ¿ÀÄÌÍ½ÃÀ È»ÉÅËÎÁ»ÙÔÎÙÌËÀ¿ÎÐ½ÉÌÍÉÐË»ÈÃÆÃÔÃÉÍ½»ÆÉ½ÎË»ÈÉ½ÖÐÃ $!"%,+/ '¬$ ¬,/.%2'!. ¬3 ¬AND¬-!44(%7 ¬2¬ ¬3TATE¬ ÊÉÆÃÇÀÍ»ÆÆÃÒÀÌÅÃÐËÎ¿½¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÅÉÄ«ÀÌÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÀ§»ÍÀËÃ»ÆÖ OF¬THE¬!RT¬2EVIEW¬OF¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬3ECURITY¬AND¬#O OPERATION¬ ÅÉÈÏÀËÀÈÑÃÃq¸ÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÒÀÌÅÉÀ½ÉÂ¿ÀÄÌÍ½ÃÀ¾ÉËÈÉ¿É¼Ö½»ÙÔÀÄ 0ARIS¬/%#$ ÊËÉÇÖÓÆÀÈÈÉÌÍÃ½±ÀÈÍË»Æ×ÈÉÄÂÃÃÏ»ÅÍÖÃÊËÉ¼ÆÀÇÖ r ¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È ÉÂ£ÌÌÖÅ ¥ÎÆ× Ì»È»ÍÉËÃÄqÀÆÖÄÊ»ËÉÐÉ¿r $*!,/"!%6 ¬!¬ ¬+YRGYZSTAN¬.ATIONAL¬2EPORT¬ON¬2EGIONAL¬ ÈÉÚ¼ËÚ¾©ÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÉ½»ÈÉ½ÁÎËÈ»ÆÀqªÉÆÃÌÏÀË»r .O 7ATER¬ 0ARTNERSHIPS¬ HTTPGWPCACENAUZNETNETENPDFKYRGYZ ¾=IN2USSIAN HTTPWWWPOLYSPHEREORG STANPDF¬¬

!'!,43%6! ¬.!¬ ¬!SSESSMENT¬OF¬THE¬)NmUENCE¬OF¬#LIMATE¬ $*%.#(52!%6 ¬.¬ ¬#URRENT¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬)SSUES¬!SSOCI #HANGE¬ON¬7ATER¬2ESOURCES¬!VAILABLE¬IN¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬"ASIN¬)N¬ ATED¬WITH¬-INING¬7ASTES¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬-3C¬4HESIS¬"UDAPEST¬ $IALOGUE¬ ON¬ 7ATER¬ AND¬ #LIMATE¬ HTTPWWWDIALOGUEICWC ARAL $EPARTMENT¬OF¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬3CIENCES¬AND¬0OLICY ¬#ENTRAL¬%U UZINDEXHTM¬ ROPEAN¬ 5NIVERSITY¬ HTTPENRINGRIDANOMEDIATOURNUC&ER GANAKYRGYZ?PDF¬ !,%3(). 5 ,/3%6 6 4/2'/%6) 2ADIATION%COLOGY OF-AILUU 3UU;ÆÀÓÃÈ® ¦ÉÌÀ½§ ÉË¾ÉÀ½£«»¿Ã»ÑÃÉÈÈ»Ú $*52!%6 3 3TATE OF -INING7ASTE IN THE -OUNTAIN ØÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÚ §»ÄÆÎ ¬ÎÎÃÓÅÀÅq£ÆÃÇr Ì= IN 2USSIAN WITH %NVIRONMENTS OF4AJIKISTAN )N7ORKSHOP ON THE %COLOGICAL %NGLISHSUMMARYHTTPRADECOHOSTNETKG )MPACT OF -INING IN #ENTRAL!SIA ;ÁÎË»À½ © ÌÉÌÍÉÚÈÃÃ Ð½ÉÌÍÉÐË»ÈÃÆÃÔÃÉÍ½»ÆÉ½¾ÉËÈÖÐÊÉËÉ¿¾ÉËÈÉ¿É¼Ö½»ÙÔÃÐ !00%) ¬!¬!.$¬3+/23#(¬0¬¬2EPORT¬OF¬THE¬%#¬2APID¬2EAC Ã ¾ÉËÈÉÊÀËÀË»¼»ÍÖ½»ÙÔÃÐ ÊËÀ¿ÊËÃÚÍÃÄ «ÀÌÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÃ TION¬-ECHANISM¬!SSESSMENT¬-ISSION¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬BORDER¬MAN »¿ÁÃÅÃÌÍ»È §»ÍÀËÃ»ÆÖ ÅÉÈÏÀËÀÈÑÃÃq¸ÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÒÀÌÅÉÀ AGEMENT¬*UNE¬¬%UROPEAN¬#OMMISSION¬#ONmICT¬0REVENTION¬ ½ÉÂ¿ÀÄÌÍ½ÃÀ ¾ÉËÈÉ¿É¼Ö½»ÙÔÀÄ ÊËÉÇÖÓÆÀÈÈÉÌÍÃ ½ AND¬#RISIS¬-ANAGEMENT¬5NIT¬"RUSSELS¬HTTPEUROPAEUINTCOMM ±ÀÈÍË»Æ×ÈÉÄÂÃÃ Ï»ÅÍÖ Ã ÊËÉ¼ÆÀÇÖ r ¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È EXTERNAL?RELATIONSCPCMRRMCABMHTM¬ ÉÂ£ÌÌÖÅ ¥ÎÆ× Ì»È»ÍÉËÃÄqÀÆÖÄÊ»ËÉÐÉ¿r ÈÉÚ¼ËÚ ¾©ÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÉ½»ÈÉ½ÁÎËÈ»ÆÀqªÉÆÃÌÏÀË»r .O ¾=IN2US !:)+/6! % !,!-!./6 3 $)+)( ! 'EOSYSTEMS AND SIAN HTTPWWWPOLYSPHEREORG %COLOGICAL3ITUATIONIN+YRGYZSTAN;ÂÃÅÉ½» Æ»Ç»ÈÉ½¬ ÃÅÃÐ ÀÉÌÃÌÍÀÇÖÃØÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÒÀÌÅ»ÚÌÃÍÎ»ÑÃÚ½¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»ÈÀ§»ÍÀËÃ»ÆÖ $/5',!3¬'¬ ¬!N¬OVERVIEW¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬)N¬0ER Å»¿ÀÇÃÃÈ»ÎÅ¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È»q¸ÐÉÈ»ÎÅÃr .O=IN2USSIAN SPECTIVES¬ ON¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA ¬ 6OLUME¬ ¬ .UMBER¬ ¬ *ANUARY¬ ¬ 0UBLISHED¬BY¬THE¬%ISENHOWER¬)NSTITUTES¬#ENTER¬FOR¬0OLITICAL¬AND¬ "!%#(,%2 ¬'¬ ¬7HY¬ENVIRONMENTAL¬TRANSFORMATION¬CAUSES¬ 3TRATEGIC¬3TUDIES VIOLENCE¬!¬SYNTHESIS¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬#HANGE¬AND¬3ECURITY¬0ROJECT¬ 2EPORT ¬)SSUE¬¬3PRING¬ ¬ $5+(/6.9 ¬6¬ ! ¬ 3/+/,/6 ¬ 6¬)¬ ¬ )NTEGRATED¬ WATER¬ RE SOURCES¬MANAGEMENT¬)N¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬"ASIN¬3CIENTIlC )NFORMATION¬ "!%#(,%2 ¬'¬ ¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬$EGRADATION¬IN¬THE¬3OUTH¬AS¬ #ENTER¬OF¬THE¬)NTERSTATE¬#OMMISSION¬FOR¬7ATER¬#OORDINATION¬IN¬THE¬ A¬#AUSE¬OF¬!RMED¬#ONmICT¬)N¬#!2)53 ¬!¬AND¬,)%4:-!.. ¬+¬ !RAL¬3EA¬"ASIN ¬4ASHKENT¬HTTPENRINGRIDANOARALWBWATERPDF¬ EDS¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬#HANGE¬AND¬3ECURITY¬!¬%UROPEAN¬0ERSPECTIVE¬ "ERLIN¬3PRINGER¬PP¬ %#/./-)34¬).4%,,)'%.#%¬5.)4¬ ¬#OUNTRY¬0ROlLE¬+YRGYZ¬ 2EPUBLIC ¬4AJIKISTAN "/'$%43+9 ¬6¬ %D ¬ ¬ -INING¬ )NDUSTRY¬ AND¬ 3USTAINABLE¬ $EVELOPMENT¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN¬)N¬-INING ¬-INERALS¬AND¬3USTAINABLE¬ %#/./-)34¬ ).4%,,)'%.#%¬ 5.)4¬ ¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬ #OUNTRY¬ $EVELOPMENT¬"ULLETIN¬.O¬ 0ROlLE ¬,ONDON

#(!-"%23 ¬2¬AND¬#/.7!9 ¬'¬ ¬3USTAINABLE¬RURAL¬LIVELI %52/0%!.¬ "!.+¬ &/2¬ 2%#/.3425#4)/.¬ !.$¬ $%6%,/0 HOODS¬0RACTICAL¬CONCEPTS¬FOR¬THE¬ST¬CENTURY¬)$3¬$ISCUSSION¬ -%.4¬ ¬4RANSITION¬2EPORT ¬,ONDON 0APER¬¬"RIGHTON¬)$3 &%7%2¬ ¬ %ARLY¬ 7ARNING¬ 2EPORT¬ ON¬ THE¬ &ERGHANA¬ VALLEY ¬ #(5" 6 #LIMATE#HANGEANDITS)NFLUENCEON.ATURAL2E /CTOBER¬ SOURCE0OTENTIALOFTHE2EPUBLICOF5ZBEKISTAN;²Î¼ £ÂÇÀÈÀÈÃÀ ÅÆÃÇ»Í» Ã À¾É ½ÆÃÚÈÃÀ È» ÊËÃËÉ¿ÈÉ ËÀÌÎËÌÈÖÄ ÊÉÍÀÈÑÃ»Æ &2!44).) ¬"25./¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬ AND¬ 3ECURITY¬ INITIATIVE¬ «ÀÌÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÃ®Â¼ÀÅÃÌÍ»È»ÓÅÀÈÍ¬¨£§£=IN2USSIAN #ENTRAL¬!SIA¬ ¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬3UMMARY¬OF¬lRST¬lELD¬VISITS¬¬ .OVEMBER ¬$ECEMBER¬¬)#!2/¬3RL ¬#ORTONA #/,,)%2¬ 0¬ AND¬ (/%&&,%2¬ ! ¬ 'REED¬ AND¬ 'RIEVANCE¬ IN¬ #IVIL¬7AR¬7ORLD¬"ANK¬0OLICY¬2ESEARCH¬7ORKING¬0APER¬.O¬¬ '%,9 ¬* ¬AND¬-5,,%2¬- ¬ ¬2EGIONAL¬7ATER¬-ANAGEMENT¬IN¬ /CTOBER #ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬3WISS¬$EVELOPMENT¬#OOPERATION ¬"ISHKEK 2EFERENCES¬AND¬SOURCES %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

'/,$34%). 2 -!+!2/60 2ADIATION7ASTE0ROBLEMSIN +92'9:¬'/6%2.-%.4¬ ¬+YRGYZ¬2EPUBLIC¬.ATIONAL¬%NVIRON 5ZBEKISTANAND4RANSBOUNDARY2EGIONS;ÉÆ×¿ÓÍÀÄÈ«£ §»Å»ËÉ½ MENTAL¬!CTION¬0LAN¬"ISHKEK¬'OVERNMENT¬0RINTING¬/FlCE¬AND¬THE¬ ª «»¿ÃÉ»ÅÍÃ½ÈÖÀ ÉÍÐÉ¿Ö È» ÍÀËËÃÍÉËÃÃ®Â¼ÀÅÃÌÍ»È» 7ORLD¬"ANK¬2USSIAN¬SUMMARY¬AVAILABLE¬AT¬HTTPWWWECOMON Ã ½ ÍË»ÈÌ¾Ë»ÈÃÒÈÖÐ Ë»ÄÉÈ»Ð ÊËÉ¼ÆÀÇÖ Ë»¿Ã»ÑÃÉÈÈÉÄ KGP?PROGRAMHTM¬ ¼ÀÂÉÊ»ÌÈÉÌÍÃ §»ÍÀËÃ»ÆÖ ÅÉÈÏÀËÀÈÑÃÃq¸ÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÒÀÌÅÉÀ ½ÉÂ¿ÀÄÌÍ½ÃÀ ¾ÉËÈÉ¿É¼Ö½»ÙÔÀÄ ÊËÉÇÖÓÆÀÈÈÉÌÍÃ ½ +92'9:¬ '/6%2.-%.4¬ ¬ #OMPREHENSIVE¬ $EVELOPMENT¬ ±ÀÈÍË»Æ×ÈÉÄÂÃÃ Ï»ÅÍÖ Ã ÊËÉ¼ÆÀÇÖ r ¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È &RAMEWORK¬ OF¬ THE¬ +YRGYZ¬ 2EPUBLIC¬ TO¬ ¬ .ATIONAL¬ POVERTY¬ ÉÂ£ÌÌÖÅ ¥ÎÆ× Ì»È»ÍÉËÃÄqÀÆÖÄÊ»ËÉÐÉ¿r ÈÉÚ¼ËÚ REDUCTION¬STRATEGY¬ ¬%XPANDING¬THE¬NATIONS¬POTENTIAL¬ ¾©ÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÉ½»ÈÉ½ÁÎËÈ»ÆÀqªÉÆÃÌÏÀË»r .O ¾=IN2US "ISHKEK¬HTTPCDFGOVKGENCDFNSPRNEWPRSP?LASTHTM SIAN HTTPWWWPOLYSPHEREORG -!,4!)3¬! ¬$/7¬+ ¬0%233/.¬!¬ ¬)NTEGRATING¬0ERSPECTIVES¬ '/5$)%¬$¬ ¬!N¬/VERVIEW¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬6ALLEY¬0ERSPEC IN¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬3ECURITY ¬3TOCKHOLM ¬3%) ¬AVAILABLE¬AT¬WWWSEISE TIVES¬ON¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬6OLUME¬ ¬.UMBER¬¬*ANUARY¬ ¬%ISEN HOWER¬)NSTITUTES¬#ENTER¬FOR¬0OLITICAL¬AND¬3TRATEGIC¬3TUDIES -)+,).¬0¬ ¬-ANAGING¬7ATER¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬,ONDON ¬2OYAL¬ )NSTITUTE¬OF¬)NTERNATIONAL¬!FFAIRS (/-%2 $)8/. ¬ 4¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT ¬ 3CARCITY ¬ AND¬ 6IOLENCE¬ 0RINCETON¬0RINCETON¬5NIVERSITY¬0RESS -).)3429/&%#/,/'9!.$%-%2'%.#)%3/&4(%+92'9: 2%05",)# .ATIONAL2EPORTONTHE3TATEOFTHE%NVIRONMENT ).4%2.!4)/.!,¬#2)3)3¬'2/50¬ ¬)NCUBATORS¬OF¬#ONmICT¬#EN IN+YRGYZSTAN ;§ÃÈÃÌÍÀËÌÍ½ÉØÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÃÃÒËÀÂ½ÖÒ»ÄÈÖÐ TRAL¬!SIAS¬,OCALIZED¬0OVERTY¬AND¬3OCIAL¬5NREST ¬/SH¬"RUXELLES ÌÃÍÎ»ÑÃÄ ¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÅÉÄ «ÀÌÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÃ ¨»ÑÃÉÈ»Æ×ÈÖÄ ¿ÉÅÆ»¿ É ÌÉÌÍÉÚÈÃÃÉÅËÎÁ»ÙÔÀÄÌËÀ¿Ö¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È»¾«À¿©¬ ).4%2.!4)/.!,¬#2)3)3¬'2/50¬ ¬4AJIKISTAN¬!¬2OADMAP¬ «ÎÌÍÀÇ¼ÀÅÉ½ ¡¸ÀÅÅÎÆÉ½»="ISHKEK IN2USSIANHTTPENRIN &OR¬$EVELOPMENT ¬/SH¬"RUXELLES GRIDANOHTMLSKYRGHIZSOEDOKLADPDF

).4%2.!4)/.!,¬-/.%4!29¬&5.$¬ ¬2EPUBLIC¬OF¬4AJIKISTAN -).)3429¬ /&¬ %#/,/'9¬ !.$¬ %-%2'%.#)%3¬ /&¬ 4(%¬ +92 3TATISTICAL¬!PPENDIX ¬-AY¬ ¬7ASHINGTON '9:¬2%05",)#¬ ¬+YRGYZ¬&IRST¬.ATIONAL¬#OMMUNICATION¬ON¬ #LIMATE¬#HANGE¬HTTPUNFCCCINTRESOURCEDOCSNATCKYRNCPDF¬ ).4%2.!4)/.!,¬2%$¬#2/33¬&%$%2!4)/.¬ ¬3HOHIMARDAN¬ 2USSIAN¬ VERSION¬ AVAILABLE¬ AT¬ HTTPWWWCLIMATECHANGEUNDP mOOD¬ ¬ HTTPWWWIFRCORGDOCSAPPEALSRPTSKGUZ KGRUSHTML?HTML¬ PDF .!625:¬02/*%#4¬ ¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬4RANSBOUNDARY¬2IVER¬-ONI )0##¬ ¬)NTERGOVERNMENTAL¬0ANEL¬ON¬#LIMATE¬#HANGE¬ ¬4HE¬RE TORING¬%XPIREMENT¬4RANSBOUNDARY¬-ONITORING¬FOR¬2ADIONUCLIDES¬ GIONAL¬IMPACTS¬OF¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE¬AN¬ASSESSMENT¬OF¬VULNERABILITY¬!¬ AND¬-ETALS¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIAN¬2IVERS¬$ATA¬2EPORT¬HTTPCADFAEL 3PECIAL¬2EPORT¬OF¬)0##¬7ORKING¬GROUP¬))¬7ATSON ¬2 ¬-¬:INYOWERA¬ CMCSANDIAGOVCENTRALREPORTSSAND PDF¬ AND¬2¬-OSS¬EDS ¬#AMBRIDGE¬#AMBRIDGE¬5NI¬0RESS ./2,%. ¬$¬ ¬4HE¬+UMTOR¬'OLD¬-INE¬3PEWING¬4OXICS¬FROM¬ON¬ )0##¬ ¬)NTERGOVERNMENTAL¬0ANEL¬ON¬#LIMATE¬#HANGE¬ ¬#LIMATE¬ (IGH ¬#)%, ¬AVAILABLE¬AT¬HTTPWWWCIELORG)lIFCCASEKYRGYZSTANHTML CHANGE¬¬)MPACTS ¬ADAPTATION¬AND¬VULNERABILITY¬#ONTRIBUTION¬OF¬ WORKING¬GROUP¬))¬TO¬THE¬THIRD¬ASSESSMENT¬REPORT¬OF¬THE¬INTERGOVERN ./6)+/6 ¬6¬ ¬ 4HE¬ )MPACT¬ OF¬ #LIMATE¬ #HANGE¬ ON¬ .ATURAL¬ MENTAL¬PANEL¬ON¬CLIMATE¬CHANGE¬**¬-C#ARTHY ¬/¬#ANZIANI ¬.¬,EARY ¬ 2ESOURCES¬AND¬3OCIO %CONOMIC¬3YSTEMS¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬AND¬ITS¬ $¬$OKEN ¬+¬7HITE¬EDS ¬#AMBRIDGE¬#AMBRIDGE¬5NI¬0RESS )MPLICATIONS¬FOR¬2EGIONAL¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬3ECURITY¬!¬#ASE¬3TUDY¬ OF¬4HE¬0AMIRS¬AND¬THE¬4IEN 3HAN¬-OUNTAIN¬%NVIRONMENTS¬-3C¬ *!,!,/6¬!¬ ¬5ZBEKISTAN¬.ATIONAL¬2EPORT¬ON¬2EGIONAL¬7ATER¬ 4HESIS¬ "UDAPEST¬ $EPARTMENT¬ OF¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬ 3CIENCES¬ AND¬ 0ARTNERSHIPS¬HTTPGWPCACENAUZNETNETENPDFUZBEKISTANPDF¬¬ 0OLICY ¬#ENTRAL¬%UROPEAN¬5NIVERSITY

+(/,-!4/6¬! ¬05,!4/6¬9A¬ ¬4AJIKISTAN¬.ATIONAL¬2EPORT¬ .5#,%!2¬4(2%!4¬).)4)!4)6%¬ ¬4AJIKISTAN¬6OSTOCHNYY¬2ARE¬ ON¬2EGIONAL¬7ATER¬0ARTNERSHIPS¬HTTPGWPCACENAUZNETNETEN -ETAL¬ )NDUSTRIAL¬ !SSOCIATION¬ HTTPWWWNTIORGDBNISPROFSTAJI PDFTAJIKISTANPDF¬ KISFACILSHTM¬

+,¾4:)¬3 ¬ ¬4HE¬@!RAL¬3EA¬3YNDROME¬AND¬2EGIONAL¬#OOP .5#,%!2¬4(2%!4¬).)4)!4)6%¬A ¬5ZBEKISTAN¬5RANIUM¬-INING¬ ERATION¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬/PPORTUNITIES¬OR¬AN¬/BSTACLE ¬IN¬#ONmICT¬ AND¬-ILLING¬HTTPWWWNTIORGDBNISPROFSUZBEKISMININGHTM¬ AND¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT ¬EDITED¬BY¬'LEDISCH¬.0 ¬PP¬ ¬.!4/¬ !3)¬3ERIES¬ ¬%NVIRONMENT ¬$ORDRECHT¬"OSTON¬,ONDON ¬+LUWER¬ .5#,%!2¬4(2%!4¬).)4)!4)6%¬C ¬+YRGYZSTAN¬5RANIUM¬-INING¬ !CADEMIC¬0UBLISHERS AND¬-ILLING¬HTTPWWWNTIORGDBNISPROFSKYRGYZMININGHTM¬¬

+2%6%2¬6 ¬0%2%,!$/6!¬/ ¬7),,)!-3¬- ¬*5.')53¬( ¬ ¬ /#(!¬ ¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY ¬%ARLY 7ARNING¬!NALYSIS ¬3EPTEMBER¬ "IODIVERSITY¬#ONSERVATION¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬7ASHINGTON ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

/(,33/.¬,¬ ¬4EXT¬OF¬THE¬ORAL¬PRESENTATION¬AT¬THE¬WORKSHOP¬ 5.¬$)3!34%2¬!33%33-%.4¬!.$¬#//2$).!4)/.¬ ¬-IS h0OVERTY¬¬%NVIRONMENTv ¬THE¬5.$03)$!¬CONFERENCE¬ON¬POVERTY¬ SION¬TO¬THE¬+YRGYZ¬2EPUBLIC ¬ ¬-AY¬¬HTTPWWWVORARLBERG REDUCTION ¬3TOCKHOLM¬ ¬.OVEMBER¬ ¬AVAILABLE¬AT¬HTTP ATPDFBERICHTERSTATTUNGUEBERDENPDF¬ WWWEDCNEWSSE2EVIEWS/HLSSONHTML 5.¬30%#!¬ ¬7ATER¬2ESOURCES¬2EPORT¬FOR¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬HTTP /(,33/. ¬,¬A ¬,IVELIHOOD¬#ONmICTS¬,INKING¬0OVERTY¬AND¬ WWWUNECEORGSPECAENERGYDOCUMENTSWREDOC¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AS¬#AUSES¬OF¬#ONmICT¬3TOCKHOLM¬3)$! 5.¬ 30%#!¬ ¬ %NERGY¬ 2ESOURCES¬ 2EPORT¬ FOR¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA¬ 0!¬#/.3/24)5-¬'2/50¬¬0!¬#/.35,4).'¬ ¬4RANSBOUNDARY¬ HTTPWWWUNECEORGSPECAENERGYDOCUMENTSEREDOC¬ 7ATER¬AND¬2ELATED¬%NERGY¬#OOPERATION¬FOR¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬"ASIN¬2EGION¬OF¬ #ENTRAL¬!SIA¬&UNDED¬BY¬THE¬53¬!GENCY¬FOR¬)NTERNATIONAL¬$EVELOPMENT ¬ 5.$0¬ ¬'EO %COLOGICAL¬3ECURITY¬AND¬2ISKS¬FROM¬.ATURAL¬AND¬ 2EGIONAL¬-ISSION¬FOR¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA ¬/FlCE¬OF¬%NERGY¬AND¬7ATER 4ECHNOLOGICAL¬$ISASTERS¬IN¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬"ISHKEK

0%!#%¬!.$¬#/.&,)#4¬345$)%3¬02/'2!- ¬5NIVERSITY¬OF¬4O 5.$0¬ ¬.ATIONAL¬(UMAN¬$EVELOPMENT¬2EPORT ¬+YRGYZ¬2E RONTO¬ ¬4HE¬0ROJECT¬ON¬%NVIRONMENT ¬0OPULATION ¬AND¬3ECURITY¬ PUBLIC ¬"ISHKEK¬ #ONSULTED¬AT¬HTTPWWWLIBRARYUTORONTOCAPCSEPSHTM¬¬¬¬ 5.$0¬ ¬ !DDRESSING¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬ 2ISKS¬ IN¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA¬ 2%3%!2#(¬,!"/2!4/29¬&/2¬.!452%¬02/4%#4)/.¬ ¬ 2ISKS ¬ #ONDITIONS ¬ 0OLICIES ¬ #APACITIES ¬ "RATISLAVA ¬ ¬ HTTP 4AJIKISTAN¬¬3TATE¬OF¬THE¬%NVIRONMENT¬2EPORT¬%LECTRONIC¬VER WWWENVSECORG SION ¬EDS¬.¬3AFAROV¬AND¬6¬.OVIKOV¬$USHANBE ¬IN¬%NGLISH¬AND¬ 2USSIAN¬¬HTTPENRINGRIDANOHTMLSTADJIKSOE¬ 5.%#%¬ ¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬0ERFORMANCE¬2EVIEW¬OF¬+YRGYZ STAN¬!S¬DISCUSSED¬AND¬APPROVED¬BY¬THE¬SEVENTH¬SESSION¬OF¬THE¬ 3!6/3+5, ¬/ ¬%¬#(%6.).! ¬&¬0%2:)'%2 ¬,¬6!3),).!¬%4¬!,¬ #OMMITTEE¬ON¬%NVIRONMENT¬0OLICY ¬3EPTEMBER¬¬5.%#%¬ ¬7ATER ¬#LIMATE ¬&OOD ¬AND¬%NVIRONMENT¬IN¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬ #OMMITTEE¬ ON¬ %NVIRONMENTAL¬ 0OLICY ¬'ENEVA¬ )N¬ %NGLISH¬ AND¬ "ASIN¬#ONTRIBUTION¬TO¬THE¬PROJECT¬!$!04¬!DAPTATION¬STRATEGIES¬ 2USSIAN ¬ HTTPWWWUNECEORGENVEPRCOUNTRIESREVIEWED TO¬CHANGING¬ENVIRONMENTS¬*ULY¬¬HTTPSHEBAGEOVUNLUS HTM¬ ERSIVMADAPTDOWNLOADS3YR$ARYA?&INAL2EPORTPDF¬ 5.%#%¬ ¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬0ARTNERSHIPS¬IN¬THE¬5.¬%#%¬2EGION¬ 3)#¬)#7#¬ ¬h$IALOGUE¬ON¬7ATER¬AND¬#LIMATEv¬!RAL¬3EA¬"ASIN¬ %NVIRONMENT¬3TRATEGY¬FOR¬#OUNTRIES¬OF¬%ASTERN¬%UROPE ¬#AUCASUS¬ #ASE¬3TUDY¬0ROJECT¬.O¬ ¬*ULY $ECEMBER¬ ¬4ASH !ND¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA¬ 3TRATEGIC¬ &RAMEWORK¬ HTTPWWWOECDORG KENT¬ HTTPWWWWACIHENLDIALOGUEBASINARAL?SEADOCUMENTS DATAOECDPDF¬ lNALREPORTDOC¬¬ 5.%0 ¬5.$0 ¬/3#%¬ ¬%NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY¬ ¬4RANSFORM 34!4%#/--)44%% &/2 .!452%02/4%#4)/. /& 5: ING¬RISKS¬INTO¬COOPERATION¬4HE¬#ASE¬OF¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬AND¬3OUTH¬ "%+)34!. .ATIONAL2EPORTON3TATEOFTHE%NVIRONMENT %ASTERN¬ %UROPE ¬ !RENDAL¬ )N¬ %NGLISH¬ AND¬ 2USSIAN ¬ HTTPWWW ANDTHE5SEOF.ATURAL2ESOURCESINTHE2EPUBLICOF5ZBEKISTAN ENVSECORG ;ÉÌÅÉÇÊËÃËÉ¿»«ÀÌÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÃ®Â¼ÀÅÃÌÍ»È¨»ÑÃÉÈ»Æ×ÈÖÄ ¿ÉÅÆ»¿ É ÌÉÌÍÉÚÈÃÃ ÉÅËÎÁ»ÙÔÀÄ ÌËÀ¿Ö Ã ÃÌÊÉÆ×ÂÉ½»ÈÃÃ 5.%0 ¬5.$0 ¬/3#% ¬.!4/¬ ¬&ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬ASSESSMENT¬ ÊËÃËÉ¿ÈÖÐËÀÌÎËÌÉ½½«ÀÌÊÎ¼ÆÃÅÀ®Â¼ÀÅÃÌÍ»È¾ «À¿ AND¬REGIONAL¬WORKSHOP¬/SH ¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬ ¬$ECEMBER ¬ ¬ °¬³ÀËÃÇ¼ÀÍÉ½ ÆÃÐ»ÈÉ½=4ASHKENT#HINOR%.+ IN2US 3UMMARY¬%D¬,UIGI¬DE¬-ARTINO¬AND¬6IKTOR¬.OVIKOV¬HTTPWWW SIANHTTPWWWNATUREUZRUSPUBILCATIONSREPORTPHP ENVSECORG

34%'.!2 ¬0¬ ¬!¬PRELIMINARY¬RADIOLOGICAL¬ASSESSMENT¬OF¬THE¬ 5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL¬ ¬4HIRTEEN¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬3TORIES¬FROM¬ ENVIRONMENTAL¬IMPACT¬DUE¬TO¬MINING¬AND¬MILLING¬OF¬URANIUM¬IN¬THE¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA ¬ !RENDAL¬ HTTPENRINGRIDANOENV?STORIES#EN &ERGHANA¬VALLEY¬AND¬RECOMMENDATIONS¬FOR¬FURTHER¬ACTIVITIES¬*OäEF¬ TRAL?ASIABOOKLETPDF¬ 2USSIAN¬ TRANSLATION¬ AT¬ HTTPENRINGRIDA 3TEFAN¬)NSTITUTE ¬,JUBLJANA NOMEDIATOURCFM ARTICLE

4!"93(!,)%6!¬!¬ ¬4HE¬#HALLENGE¬OF¬2EGIONAL¬#OOPERATION¬ 5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL¬A ¬%NVIRONMENT¬IN¬#ENTRAL¬AND¬%ASTERN¬ IN¬#ENTRAL¬!SIA¬0REVENTING¬%THNIC¬#ONmICT¬IN¬4HE¬&ERGHANA¬6ALLEY¬ %UROPE ¬ #AUCASUS¬ AND¬ #ENTRAL¬ !SIA¬ !¬ CONTRIBUTION¬ TO¬ THE¬ TH¬ 0EACEWORKS¬.O¬¬5NITED¬3TATES¬)NSTITUTE¬OF¬0EACE¬HTTPWWW h%NVIRONMENT¬FOR¬%UROPEv¬CONFERENCE¬IN¬+YIV ¬-AY¬ ¬¬ USIPORGPUBSPEACEWORKSPWKSPDF¬ #$ 2/-¬ALBUM ¬!RENDAL¬)N¬%NGLISH¬AND¬2USSIAN ¬CONTENTS¬AVAIL ABLE¬AT¬HTTPWWWGRIDANOENRIN¬ 4/2'/%6 )! !,%3().9U' %COLOGY OF THE -INING #OMPLEX OF +YRGYZSTAN ;ÉË¾ÉÀ½ £ ÆÀÓÃÈ ¹¸ÅÉÆÉ¾ÃÚ 6)./'2!$/6 ¬3 ¬!.$¬6¬,!.'&/2$¬ ¬-ANAGING¬4RANS ¾ÉËÈÉÊËÉÇÖÓÆÀÈÈÉ¾É ÅÉÇÊÆÀÅÌ» ¥ÖË¾ÖÂÌÍ»È» ÌÊË»½ÉÒÈÃÅ BOUNDARY¬7ATER¬2ESOURCES¬IN¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬"ASIN¬IN¬3EARCH¬OF¬A¬ ÌÆÉ½»Ë× «À¿£ÄÍÇ»ÍÉ½ÃÓÅÀÅr£ÆÃÇr=IN2USSIAN 3OLUTION¬)NT¬*¬'LOBAL¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬)SSUES¬ ¬ 2EFERENCES¬AND¬SOURCES %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

7%'%2)#( ¬+!)¬ ¬/PEN¬AND¬(IDDEN¬0ROBLEMS¬OF¬THE¬#UR 7/,& ¬!4¬ ¬#ONmICT¬AND¬COOPERATION¬ALONG¬INTERNATIONAL¬ RENT¬AND¬&UTURE¬7ATER¬$ISTRIBUTION¬IN¬THE¬!MU $ARYA¬2IVER¬"ASIN¬ WATERWAYS¬7ATER¬0OLICY¬ ;0UBLISHED¬ IN¬ 'ERMAN¬ 7EGERICH ¬ + ¬ ¬ 7ASSERVERTEILUNG¬ IM¬ &LUSSEINZUGSGEBIET¬DES¬!MUDARJA¬/FFENE¬UND¬VERDECKTE¬0ROBLEME¬ 7/2,$¬"!.+¬ ¬7ATER¬%NERGY¬.EXUS ¬)MPROVING¬2EGIONAL¬ n¬HEUTE¬UND¬IN¬DER¬:UKUNFT ¬IN¬.EUBERT ¬3 ¬7¬3CHEUMANN ¬!¬VAN¬ #OOPERATION¬IN¬THE¬3YR $ARYA¬"ASIN ¬7ASHINGTON¬$# %DIG¬AND¬7¬(UPPERT¬h)NTEGRIERTES¬7ASSERRESSOURCEN -ANAGEMENT¬ )72- ¬%IN¬KONZEPT¬IN¬DIE¬0RAXIS¬ÄBERFàHRENh ¬.OMOS 6ERLAG ¬PP¬ 7/2,$¬"!.+¬A ¬+YRGYZ¬2EPUBLIC¬$ISASTER¬(AZARD¬-ITIGATION¬ =¬ HTTPWWWDOWWAUNLIWEPUBLICATIES?7%' 0ROJECT¬7ASHINGTON¬$# %2)#(?)72-?).?#!PDF¬ 7/2,$¬2%3/52#%3¬).34)454%¬ ¬7ORLD¬2ESOURCES¬ 7%).4(!, ¬%¬ ¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬0EACEMAKING¬IN¬THE¬!RAL¬3EA¬ ¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬CHANGE¬AND¬HUMAN¬HEALTH¬7ASHINGTON¬$#¬!LSO¬ "ASIN ¬IN¬#/.#!¬+ ¬$!"%,+/¬'¬%DS ¬ ¬%NVIRONMENTAL¬ USED¬ THROUGHOUT¬ THE¬ REPORT¬ ARE¬ MATERIALS¬ AND¬ COMMUNICATIONS¬ 0EACEMAKING ¬7OODROW¬7ILSON¬#ENTER¬0RESS ¬7ASHINGTON FROM¬ORGANIZATIONS¬AND¬EXPERTS¬IN¬THE¬COUNTRIES¬OF¬THE¬&ERGHANA¬ VALLEY¬PROVIDED¬TO¬%.63%#¬IN¬THE¬COURSE¬OF¬THE¬IN DEPTH¬ASSESS 7(/¬ ¬(IGHLIGHTS¬ON¬(EALTH¬IN¬5ZBEKISTAN¬HTTPWWWWHO MENT¬BEFORE ¬DURING¬AND¬AFTER¬THE¬PRE MISSION ¬lELD¬MISSION¬AND¬ DKDOCUMENTEPDF¬¬ /SH¬CONSULTATIONS¬IN¬ ¬AS¬WELL¬AS¬VIA¬%.63%#¬.ATIONAL¬&OCAL¬ 0OINTS¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

#OLLECTION¬ OF¬ MATERIALS¬ AND¬ OBSERVATIONS¬ HAS¬ BEEN¬ FACILITATED¬ ¬)NDUSTRIAL¬&ACILITIES¬AND¬(AZARDOUS¬7ASTE¬4RACK¬+HUJAND¬n¬)SFARA¬¬ THROUGH¬THE¬FOLLOWING¬MISSIONS 3HURAB¬n¬+ANIBADAM¬n¬"EKABAD¬n¬+HAIDARKAN¬n¬+ADAMJAI¬n¬/SH

0REPARATORY¬MISSION¬$USHANBE¬n¬+HUJAND¬n¬/SH¬n¬4ASHKENT¬ "RUNO¬&RATTINI¬AND¬&ABRIZIO¬"UCCI ¬)#!2/¬3RL ¬#ORTONA n¬"ISHKEK ¬IN¬!UGUST 3EPTEMBER¬ 6IKTOR¬.OVIKOV ¬5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL +UBANICH "EK¬.ORUZBAEV ¬-INISTRY¬OF¬%COLOGY¬AND¬%MERGENCIES¬ )NKAR¬+ADYRZHANOVA ¬5.$0¬2EGIONAL¬#ENTRE ¬"RATISLAVA OF¬+YRGYZSTAN ¬"ISHKEK 'IANLUCA¬2AMPOLLA ¬/3#%¬(EADQUARTERS ¬6IENNA +HAKNAZAR¬"OBOEV ¬-INISTRY¬OF¬)NDUSTRY¬OF¬4AJIKISTAN ¬$USHANBE .ICKOLAI¬$ENISOV ¬5.%0¬'2)$ !RENDAL ¬'ENEVA !BDUMANAP¬2AHIMOV ¬3TATE¬#OMMITTEE¬FOR¬.ATURE¬0ROTECTION¬OF¬ ,UIGI¬ DE¬ -ARTINO ¬ 'RADUATE¬ )NSTITUTE¬ FOR¬ $EVELOPMENT¬ 3TUDIES ¬ 5ZBEKISTAN ¬4ASHKENT 5NIVERSITY¬OF¬'ENEVA ¬5RANIUM¬-INING¬AND¬0ROCESSING¬4RACK¬+HUJAND¬n¬#HKALOVSK¬¬ &IELD¬MISSION¬IN¬$ECEMBER¬ 'AFUROV¬n¬4ABOSHAR¬n¬-AILUU¬3UU¬n¬/SH ¬ ¬ .ATURAL¬ 2ESOURCES¬ 4RACK¬+HUJAND¬ n¬ 3PITAMEN¬ n¬ +AIRAKKUM¬ 0ETER¬0¬3TEGNAR ¬*OäEF¬3TEFAN¬)NSTITUTE ¬,JUBLJANA RESERVOIR¬n¬3OKH¬n¬3HAHIMARDAN¬n¬*ALAL !BAD¬n¬/SH 'IANLUCA¬2AMPOLLA ¬/3#%¬(EADQUARTERS ¬6IENNA 0HILIPPE¬2EKACEWICZ ¬5.%0'2)$ !RENDAL ¬!RENDAL ,UIGI¬ DE¬ -ARTINO ¬ 'RADUATE¬ )NSTITUTE¬ FOR¬ $EVELOPMENT¬ 3TUDIES ¬ !SANKUL¬.URABAEV ¬-INISTRY¬OF¬%COLOGY¬AND¬%MERGENCIES¬OF¬+YR 5NIVERSITY¬OF¬'ENEVA GYZSTAN ¬"ISHKEK 4ATIANA¬6OLKOVA ¬-INISTRY¬OF¬%COLOGY¬AND¬%MERGENCIES¬OF¬+YRGYZ +HAIDAR¬'ULMAHMADOV ¬0RESIDENTIAL¬!DMINISTRATION¬OF¬4AJIKISTAN ¬ STAN ¬"ISHKEK $USHANBE .URJAN¬$JUMABAEV ¬',)0 ¬"ISHKEK 3HAHLO¬-ALIKOVA ¬3TATE¬#OMMITTEE¬FOR¬.ATURE¬0ROTECTION¬OF¬5Z 4UROKUL¬ -URODOV ¬ 3TATE¬ #OMMITTEE¬ FOR¬ .ATURE¬ 0ROTECTION¬ AND¬ BEKISTAN ¬4ASHKENT &ORESTRY¬OF¬4AJIKISTAN ¬$USHANBE )SKANDER¬2UZIEV ¬3)#¬)#7# ¬4ASHKENT !¬LIST¬OF¬PARTICIPANTS¬AT¬THE¬/SH¬WORKSHOP¬IS¬AVAILABLE¬AT¬HTTPWWW ENVSECORG ,IST¬OF¬ABBREVIATIONS %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬

,IST¬OF¬ABBREVIATIONS !3"0 !RAL3EA"ASIN0ROGRAMME !$" !SIAN$EVELOPMENT"ANK #)$! #ANADIAN)NTERNATIONAL$EVELOPMENT!GENCY #)%, #ENTERFOR)NTERNATIONAL%NVIRONMENTAL,AW #)3 #OMMONWEALTHOF)NDEPENDENT3TATES %"2$ %UROPEAN"ANKFOR2ECONSTRUCTIONAND$EVELOPMENT %#(/ %UROPEAN#OMMUNITY(UMANITARIAN/FFICE(UMANITARIAN!ID$EPARTMENT %%##! %ASTERN%UROPE THE#AUCASUSAND#ENTRAL!SIA %)5 %CONOMIST)NTELLIGENCE5NIT %.63%# %NVIRONMENTAND3ECURITYINITIATIVE &!34 &RĆHANALYSEVON3PANNUNGENUND4ATSACHENERMITTLUNGEARLYWARNINGPROJECTOF3WISSPEACE &%7%2 &ORUMON%ARLY7ARNINGAND%ARLY2ESPONSE '%& 'LOBAL%NVIRONMENT&ACILITY '$0 'ROSS$OMESTIC0RODUCT ',/& 'LACIAL,AKE/UTBURST&LOOD '2)$ 'LOBAL2ESOURCE)NFORMATION$ATABASE )!%! )NTERNATIONAL!TOMIC%NERGY!GENCY )#' )NTERNATIONAL#RISIS'ROUP )#7# )NTERSTATE#OMMISSIONFOR7ATER#OORDINATION )$3 )NSTITUTEOF$EVELOPMENT3TUDIES )&!3 )NTERNATIONAL&UNDFOR3AVINGTHE!RAL3EA )'/ )NTERGOVERNMENTAL/RGANIZATION )-& )NTERNATIONAL-ONETARY&UND )-5 )SLAMIC-OVEMENTOF5ZBEKISTAN )0## )NTERGOVERNMENTAL0ANELON#LIMATE#HANGE )2#& )NTERNATIONAL&EDERATIONOF2ED#ROSSAND2ED#RESCENT3OCIETIES )2). 5.)NTEGRATED2EGIONAL)NFORMATION.ETWORKS )3$# )NTERSTATE3USTAINABLE$EVELOPMENT#OMMISSION ,$/& ,ANDSLIDE$AM/UTBURST&LOOD -&! -INISTRYOF&OREIGN!FFAIRS -/% -INISTRYOFTHE%NVIRONMENT .!4/ .ORTH!TLANTIC4REATY/RGANIZATION .'/ .ON 'OVERNMENTAL/RGANIZATION /#(! 5./FFICEFORTHE#OORDINATIONOF(UMANITARIAN!FFAIRS /%#$ /RGANIZATIONFOR%CONOMIC#O OPERATIONAND$EVELOPMENT /3#% /RGANIZATIONFOR3ECURITYAND#O OPERATIONIN%UROPE 2%!0 2EGIONAL%NVIRONMENTAL!CTION0LANFOR#ENTRAL!SIA 2%# 2EGIONAL%NVIRONMENTAL#ENTRE 2%(2! 2APID%NVIRONMENTAND(EALTH2ISK!SSESSMENT 2/% 5.%0pS2EGIONAL/FFICEFOR%UROPE 3$# 3WISS$EVELOPMENT#OOPERATION 3%) 3TOCKHOLM%NVIRONMENTAL)NSTITUTE 3)# 3CIENTIFIC)NFORMATION#ENTER 3)$! 3WEDISH)NTERNATIONAL$EVELOPMENT#OOPERATION!GENCY 30%#! 5.3PECIAL0ROGRAMMEFORTHE%CONOMIESOF#ENTRAL!SIA 3WISSPEACE 3WISS&OUNDATIONFOR0EACE 5. 5NITED.ATIONS 5.$0 5.$EVELOPMENT0ROGRAMME 5.%#% 5.%CONOMIC#OMMISSIONFOR%UROPE 5.%0 5.%NVIRONMENT0ROGRAMME 7(/ 7ORLD(EALTH/RGANIZATION 72) 7ORLD2ESOURCES)NSTITUTE ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

!NNICA¬#ARLSSON /RGANIZATION¬FOR¬3ECURITY¬AND¬#O OPERATION¬IN¬%UROPE

+ËRNTNER¬2ING¬ !¬6IENNA !5342)! 4EL¬ ¬¬¬ &AX¬ ¬¬¬ ANNICACARLSSON OSCEORG

.ICKOLAI¬$ENISOV 5NITED¬.ATIONS¬%NVIRONMENT¬0ROGRAMME

¬CHEMIN¬DES¬!NÏMONES #( ¬#HÊTELAINE ¬'ENEVA 37)4:%2,!.$¬ 4EL¬ ¬¬¬ &AX¬ ¬ NICKOLAIDENISOV UNEPCH

)NKAR¬+ADYRZHANOVA 5NITED¬.ATIONS¬$EVELOPMENT¬0ROGRAMME¬

'ROSSLINGOVA¬ ¬¬"RATISLAVA 3,/6!+¬2%05",)# 4EL¬ ¬¬¬ &AX¬ ¬¬¬ INKARKADYRZHANOVA UNDPORG

3USANNE¬-ICHAELIS .ORTH¬!TLANTIC¬4REATY¬/RGANIZATION

"D¬,EOPOLD¬))) " ¬"RUSSELS "%,')5- 4EL¬ ¬¬ &AX¬ ¬¬¬ MICHAELIS HQNATOINT %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY ¬ ¬ %NVIRONMENT¬AND¬3ECURITY

Dibulbm LB[BLITUBO Sftfswpjs Di ijl sd ij D Dibsebsb po Sftfswpjs bs oh Ubtilfou b Bi

Bmnbmzl V[ ot Tzsebszb ubj vo T p z N s zb . jo s E b n E b sb s. s v z z Ubcptibs L T Hvmjtubo b

Livkboe Lbojcbebn Cflbcbe

Cbulf

[fsbwtibo [fsbwtibo Npvoubjot Bo{pc UBKJLJTUBO