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Tech Trends 2020 Tech Trends 2020 Contents while (foo = getNext(bar)) { lterThis = false; Introduction | 3 if (condition1) { doSomething(); lterThis = true if (condition2) { doSomethingElse(); lterThis = glob(); } } if (! lterThis) { process(foo); } } Named tokens: 20 Symbolic tokens: 5 ("!", "=", etc.) Brackets and parenths: 24 Executive summary | 5 while (foo = getNext(bar)) { lterThis = false; if (condition1) { doSomething(); lterThis = true if (condition2) { doSomethingElse(); lterThis = glob(); } } if (! lterThis) { process(foo); } } Macro technology forces | 9 Named tokens: 20 Symbolic tokens: 5 ("!", "=", etc.) Brackets and parenths: 24 Ethical technology and trust | 25 Finance and the future of IT | 43 Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital | 59 Human experience platforms | 79 Architecture awakens | 95 Horizon next: A future look at the trends | 111 Authors and acknowledgments | 124 while (foo = getNext(bar)) { lterThis = false; if (condition1) { doSomething(); lterThis = true if (condition2) { doSomethingElse(); lterThis = glob(); } } if (! lterThis) { process(foo); } } Named tokens: 20 Symbolic tokens: 5 ("!", "=", etc.) Brackets and parenths: 24 Tech Trends 2020 Trending the trends: Eleven years of research CLOUD COGNITIVE DIGITAL EPERIENCE CORE RISK BUSINESS OF TECHNOLOGY BLOCKCHAIN ANALYTICS DIGITAL REALITY Ethical Finance Human technology Horizon the future Architecture Digital experience trust next of IT awakens twins platforms 2020 DevSecOps Beyond Connectivity NoOps in a AI-fueled Intelligent Beyond the cyber the digital serverless 2019 of tomorrow organizations interfaces marketing imperative frontier world The new Risk Exponentials CIO survey: No-collar Reengineering API Blockchain to Enterprise Digital Manifesting data 2018 core implications watch list workforce technology imperative blockchains reality legacy sovereignty Risk Exponentials CIO survey: IT Inevitable Everything- Trust Dark Machine Mixed Navigating 2017 implications watch list unbounded architecture as-a-service economy analytics intelligence reality legacy Reimagining Social CIO survey: core Risk impact of Creating Right- Autonomic Democratized Industrialized Internet AR VR 2016 systems implications exponentials legacy speed IT platforms trust analytics of Things go to work CIO as chief IT worker Software- Core Risk Exponentials API Amplified Ambient Dimensional integration of the defined 2015 renaissance implications economy intelligence computing marketing officer future everything Technical In-memory Cyber Exponentials CIO as Real-time Cloud Cognitive Wearables Digital Social Industrial debt revolution security venture DevOps orchestration analytics engagement activation crowdsourcing 2014 reversal capitalist Reinventing No such CIO as IPv6 (and Finding the Gamification Design as Business Mobile only— Social the ERP thing as postdigital this time face of goes to a discipline of IT and beyond reengineering 2013 engine hacker-proof catalyst we mean it) your data work Outside-in Digital Measured Hyper-hybrid Big data Geospatial Enterprise User Social Gamification architecture identities innovation clouds goes to visualization mobility empowerment business 2012 work Almost- The end of Cyber CIOs as Capability Real Visualization Applied User Social enterprise the death intelligence revolutionaries clouds analytics mobility engagement computing 2011 applications of ERP Best-of-breed CIO Value-driven Services Cyber Virtual- Cloud Information Information Wireless User Asset enterprise operational application thinking security ization revolution automation management mobility engagement intelligence 2010 applications excellence management 2 Introduction Introduction N 2020, THE next stage of digital’s evolution welcomes us with the promise of emotionally intelligent interfaces and hyperintuitive cognitive capabilities that will transform business in unpredictable ways. Yet I as we prepare for the coming decade of disruptive change, we would be wise to remember an important point about yesteryear’s leading-edge innovations: Architects of the 1980s designed mainframe systems that continue to run and generate business value today. Sure, they’re outmoded by today’s standards, but how many of us will build systems that run for decades? And how’s that for a legacy? Architecting for longevity and adaptability requires a deep understanding of both today’s realities and tomorrow’s possibilities. It requires an appreciation for the technology and market forces driving change. And finally, it requires a long-term commitment to focused and incremental progress. Against this backdrop, we present Tech Trends 2020, Deloitte’s 11th annual examination of the emerging technology trends that will affect your organization over the next 18 to 24 months. Several of this year’s trends are responses to persistent IT challenges. Others represent technology-specific dimensions of larger enterprise opportunities. All are poised to drive significant change. We begin Tech Trends 2020 with a timely update on the nine macro technology forces we examined in last year’s report. These forces—digital experience, analytics, cloud, core modernization, risk, the business of technology, digital reality, cognitive, and blockchain—form the technology foundation upon which organizations will build the future. This year’s update takes a fresh look at enterprise adoption of these macro forces and how they’re shaping the trends that we predict will disrupt businesses over the next 18 to 24 months. We also look at three technologies that will likely become macro forces in their own right: ambient experience, exponential intelligence, and quantum. In subsequent chapters, we discuss trends that, though grounded in today’s realities, will inform the way we work tomorrow. Our chapter on ethical technology and trust takes an in-depth look at how every aspect of an organization that is disrupted by technology becomes an opportunity to lose—or earn—the trust of customers, employees, and stakeholders. We follow with a discussion of human experience platforms that will enable tomorrow’s systems to understand context and sense human emotion to respond appropriately. Pioneering organizations are already exploring ways in which these platforms can meet the very human need for connection. 3 Tech Trends 2020 Trends evolve in unexpected ways. And often, the most interesting opportunities happen at the places where they intersect. Several of this year’s trends represent fascinating combinations of macro forces and other technology advances. For instance, digital twins represents the culmination of modernized cores, advanced cognitive models, embedded sensors, and more—a recipe that is in itself a trend, even as it builds on evolving individual technologies. We hope Tech Trends 2020 offers the insights and inspiration you will need for the digital journey ahead. The road from today’s realities to tomorrow’s possibilities will be long and full of surprises, so dream big and architect accordingly. Scott Buchholz Bill Briggs Emerging Technology research director Global chief technology officer and Government & Public Services Deloitte Consulting LLP chief technology officer [email protected] Deloitte Consulting LLP Twitter: @wdbthree [email protected] 4 Executive summary Executive summary Macro technology Ethical technology Finance and the forces and trust future of IT Last year’s Tech Trends report In a growing trend, leading As technology strategy has explored nine macro technology companies are realizing that increasingly become a core forces that form the backbone every aspect of their organization part of business strategy in of business innovation and that is disrupted by technology organizations, the demand for transformation. For a decade, represents an opportunity to improved outcomes has grown. we’ve been tracking the gain or lose trust. They are To achieve this, we expect to emergence and eventual ascent approaching trust not as a see more IT and finance leaders of digital experience, analytics, compliance or public relations working together to develop cloud, digital reality, cognitive, issue, but as a business-critical flexible approaches for innovating blockchain, the business of IT, goal to be pursued. In this light, and operating at the speed risk, and core modernization. This trust becomes a 360-degree of agile. Whether under the year’s update takes a fresh look undertaking to ensure that name of supporting innovation, at enterprise adoption of these the many dimensions across defending against disruption, or macro forces and explores how an organization’s technology, enabling digital transformation, they’re shaping the tech trends processes, and people are IT will need finance’s support to we predict will disrupt businesses working in concert to maintain effectively rethink governance over the next 18 to 24 months. the high level of trust expected of technology innovation, Bill Briggs To realize the full promise of by their many stakeholders. adapt to Agile methodologies, Global chief technology officer these forces, organizations are Business leaders are reevaluating and secure creative capital. Deloitte Consulting LLP exploring how they intersect how their products, services, and The work of transitioning to [email protected] to create more value as well as the decisions they make—around new finance, budgeting, and new ways to manage technology managing data, building a accounting processes that Twitter: @wdbthree and the technology function. partner ecosystem, and training support
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