eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Jose Information from NHC Advisory 56A, 8:00 AM EDT Tue September 19, 2017 On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relativ e to 235 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras Speed: (Category one) Land: Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 973 mb Coordinates: 36.3 N, 71.6 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 310 miles Bearing/Speed: N or 350 degrees at 9 mph N/A Winds Ex tent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Jose now heading north. To illustrate the uncertainty in Jose’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. T ropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. ■ Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern , southeast , southern Rhode Isla nd, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket through Wednesday.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Jose Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Jose

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the watch area within 36 hours – for Watch Hill to Hull, Block Island, Martha’s Viney ard, Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area – f or the coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jef ferson, and New Haven to Watch Hill.

Summary of Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011

Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2017 y ear to date (1/1/16 – 09/19/1 7) 13 7 4

2016 y ear to date (1/1/16 – 09/19/1 7) 11 4 1

1995-2011 season av erage 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season av erage 10.7 6.2 2.7 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 (May25, 2017)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Jose is the tenth named storm, fifth hurricane, and third major hurricane while The graph abov e shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average Lee is the twelf th, and Maria is the thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that and f ourth major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw Jose became the season’s fifth named hurricane on September 06. It also shows the elev en named storms four hurricanes and one major hurricane by September 19. av erage season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jose, located a f ew The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for winds - the hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and on Hurricane time bef ore or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also Maria, located ov er the northeastern Caribbean Sea. shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is located roughly midway between exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five days. This graphic is based on the official the Cabo Verde Islands and the . Environmental conditions could National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by late in the f orecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. week while the sy stem moves northwestward over the central Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

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