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CONNECT Spring/Summer8 2016

INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCED STUDY IN TOULOUSE

Home economics History as science ASTRID HOPFENSITZ IN-DEPTH: PETER TURCHIN | MOHAMMED SALEH HUMAN COOPERATION

Culture never dies Soccernomics PAULINE GROSJEAN SIMON KUPER 2 IN THIS ISSUE www.iast.fr # IAST Connect #8 3 IAST CONNECT #8 8 A real treat CONTENTS IN THIS ISSUE ...... 2 Guest editor for the intellect NEWS CORNER ...... 4 Events, press and research papers How does our Dear colleagues, WELCOME TO...... 6 How do groups Meet the IAST’s latest arrivals past influence us As IAST approaches its fi fth birthday, it has much to be proud about. In the Pauline Grosjean / Michael Gurven / David Austen-Smith make decisions? short space of just half a decade it has established itself as a major internatio- today? nal research center, bringing together a quite extraordinary array of scholars PAGE 8 IN-DEPTH PAGE 6 in the equally extraordinary setting of Toulouse. While most comparable ins- HUMAN COOPERATION ECONOMICS titutes tend to restrict their fi elds of study to the core social sciences, IAST— as befi ts a younger, leaner entrant to the WAR, PEACE AND INEQUALITY ...... 9 Peter Turchin, Mohammed Saleh fi eld—is being much more ambitious, reaching all the way from biological evo- BATTLE OF THE SPOUSES ...... 12 Astrid Hopfensitz lution at one end to someone like me, HISTORY coming from backgrounds in archaeo- THE IAST ENCOUNTER ...... 14 logy and classics, at the other. Soccer, stats and social science Simon Kuper The results are clear to see in this edition THINK TANK ...... 17 What if women How should we of IAST Connect, with debates over and Bridging the Atlantic LAW unexpected insights into the functions William Kovacic earned more? study History? of football, history as science, and—a DISTINGUISHED LECTURES ...... 18 subject dear to the heart of IAST’s direc- The future of family PAGE 12 PAGE 9 Emmanuel Todd tor Paul Seabright, who has written a major book on the subject—the war of 2020 VISIONS ...... 20 PHILOSOPHY Ian Morris the sexes. IAST members predict major changes to come • Member of the IAST Scientifi c Council BEYOND THE IAST ...... 22 • Professor of Classics and IAST’s energy and excitement are infec- Homeward bound Boris Van Leeuwen Archaeology, Stanford tious, and if its next fi ve years bring University, and Philippe POLITICAL SCIENCE results as impressive as its fi rst fi ve, we Roman Visiting Professor in International Studies are in for a real intellectual treat. and History, LSE What can data What will 2020 reveal about PSYCHOLOGY look like? Biannual magazine of the Institute for Advanced Study in sport? Toulouse, 21, allée de Brienne - 31 015 Toulouse Cedex 6 PAGE 20 FRANCE - Tél. : +33 (0)5 67 73 27 68 PAGE 14 • Commissioning editor: Paul Seabright • Editor-in-chief: Jennifer Stephenson SOCIOLOGY • Production manager: Jean-Baptiste Grossetti • Editorial contributions: James Nash • Iconography: © Fotolia - © Studio Tchiz - © Wikimedia • ISSN number in waiting • Graphic design, layout: Agence Yapak, www.yapak.fr • Environmentally friendly printing in France by Indika Iso14001 - Imprim’Vert - 25 chemin du Chapitre 31100 Toulouse - France - www.indika.fr • Circulation: 1 400 copies SOCIAL SCIENCE 4 NEWS CORNER www.iast.fr IAST Connect #8 5

IAST in action IAST IN THE PRESS FLASHBACK TO RECENT EVENTS AFTER JOHNNY’S MARCHED HOME SEAN BOTTOMLEY An investigation into the political and sociological role of US military veterans by IAST researcher Jonathan Klingler was recently featured in the high-profile magazine HONORED The American Interest. The article draws on the paper “Would You Like to Know More? DOES FEMALE The IAST has been awarded Selection, Socialization, and the Political Attitudes of Military Veterans” co-authored by the Economic History Society’s Klingler with J Tyson Chatagnier (Vanderbilt University) in 2015. EMPOWERMENT biennial First Monograph Prize for 2016. His book “The British Patent RESEARCH System during HIGHLIGHTS PROMOTE the Industrial Revolution, ECONOMIC 1700-1852” was published in DEVELOPMENT? December 2014. BEAUTY 11 DECEMBER 2015 Océane Bartholomée, Jeanne Bovet, Roberto Caldara, Junpeng Lao ECONOMICS AN EMPIRICAL and Michel Raymond Visiting the IAST from the University of Mannheim, Michèle DO TV SHOWS INFLUENCE JURY TRIALS? Mapping female bodily features Tertilt presented her empirical data analysis which suggests INVESTIGATION OF IAST researcher Arnaud Philippe enjoyed widespread coverage of attractiveness that putting money in the hands of mothers (as opposed in the French press following the publication of his policy piece - Science Report 6, 2016 to fathers) increases expenditure on children but doesn’t THE LEGACIES OF NON- co-authored with Aurélie Ouss (Chicago University) suggesting necessarily point to a good development policy. DEMOCRATIC REGIMES that sentences vary according to the content of popular news 8 APRIL 2016 broadcasted just before jury-based trials. POLITICAL SCIENCE DECISION-MAKING PREDICTIONS DIGITAL BOOKS AND Monica Martinez-Bravo (CEMFI) UBER VS. TAXIS: A LESSON IN EFFICIENCY Daniel L Chen, Tobias J Moskowitz presented her latest research An op-ed in leading French daily Le Monde by IAST and Kelly Shue ON THE RESPONSES THEIR IMPACT ON work at an IAST seminar on the director Paul Seabright addresses the rise of the Decision-Making under the Gambler’s legacies of non-democratic sharing economy and the dispute Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, OF PLANTS CONTENT regimes. Analysing data from between Uber and taxis. According Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires TO CLIMATE CHANGE 6 JANUARY 2016 Indonesia, the researcher showed to recent studies, Uber has a compe- The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016 that slower transitions towards ECONOMICS titive advantage over taxis thanks to 1 APRIL 2016 democracy allow old-regime its booking system which allows drivers to minimize their time BIOLOGY SHOULD CONSUMERS Sponsored by the Jean-Jacques elites to find ways of capturing spent driving without a customer. Laffont Digital Chair, this democracy in the medium and Robin Aguilée works at the Paul IGNORE PRODUCT workshop discussed the long run. JUSTICE AND MEDIA Sabatier Toulouse University on challenges and opportunities REVIEWS? Aurélie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe the ecological and evolutionary provided by new digital TRUMPING IN THE ELECTIONS, OR NOT The impact of media on court decisions processes involved in 31 MARCH 2016 technology in the book IAST researcher Charlotte Cavaillé wrote an extensive article in diversification and adaptation. HOW DO HUMANS Les notes de l’IPP, n. 22, January 2016 PSYCHOLOGY, ECONOMICS industry. The Washington Post about Donald Trump’s chances of winning He visited the IAST to present the US presidential election. Using political identification data, Angela Sutan has conducted RECOGNIZE KIN? his latest research on the effects Cavaillé predicts that few Democrat voters will defect towards an experiment at the Groupe of climate change on plants. 10 MARCH 2016 Trump should he become the Republican party’s candidate. ESC Dijon Bourgogne on the PSYCHOLOGY, BIOLOGY informational efficiency of the DEMOCRACY Lisa Debruine presented her product review process by André Blais, Damien Bol, Sona Golder, analyzing the impact on work on the different processes THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY involved in kin recognition. Philipp Harfst, Jean-François Laslier, Laura consumer welfare. The results Demonstrating the persistence of “the gambler’s fallacy” in every- Stephenson and Karine Van Der Straeten were presented to IAST day decisions, work by IAST researcher Daniel Chen has featured Addressing Europe’s democratic deficit: researchers in a seminar in several US press articles, mostly linked to baseball, showing An experimental evaluation of organised by the IAST MORE IAST EVENTS that “misperceptions of what constitutes a fair process can lead to the pan-European district proposal behavioral and experimental www.iast.fr/activitives unfair decisions”. European Union Politics, 2016 economics group. 6 WELCOME TO... www.iast.fr IAST Connect #8 7 Meet the IAST’s latest arrivals • MICHAEL GURVEN • • PAULINE GROSJEAN • HEALTH AND PARASITES THE PERSISTENCE OF CULTURE

Modern scientifi c anthropology is increasingly active at the core of the IAST mis- Pauline Grosjean likes to keep moving. Since fi nishing her PhD in Toulouse, her sion, which took another step forward with the arrival of Michael Gurven on a work has taken her from Tajikistan to San Francisco and the Solomon Islands. A seven-month visit from the University of California. As co-director of the Tsimane development economist with a passion for surfi ng, she looks for ‘historical acci- Life History and Health Project, he has worked closely with IAST anthropologists dents’ such as the colonization of Australia or the American West, to examine the Hillard Kaplan and Jonathan Stieglitz in remote indigenous settlements in Bolivia. interplay of economic circumstances, institutions and culture. She’s spent the past His evolutionary approach has led to fascinating work on the link between para- four years at the Australian School of Business in Sydney, publishing in prestigious sites and the prevention of heart disease. It’s pretty exciting, he admits, for an journals. Now on a six-month visit to the IAST, she’s happy to return to the Pink anthropologist to join the fi ght against the world’s number one killer. City’s bustling food markets and eager to ride the waves along the Atlantic coast.

Assembling volunteers for biomedical disease and other modern ailments. “We’ve In the , Grosjean received Gender norms can also be surprisingly studies in the Bolivian Amazon can be a observed that people with parasites have hate mail for suggesting that a culture of resilient. The settlement of Australia by an Sisyphean task: “Organizing transport could lower cholesterol and their immune system violence has persisted in the Deep South overwhelmingly male convict population be a few hours in a truck on top of several days is better regulated. The relative absence of for generations. Her analysis of census data in the 18th and 19th centuries was a “natu- in a dugout canoe, and that’s if heavy rains parasites in modern environments is asso- supports the hypothesis that Southern mur- ral experiment”, says Grosjean, which allows haven’t washed away the road or the bridges.” ciated with more allergies and autoimmune der rates can be traced to the 18th-century us to observe the eff ects of distorted sex But when the French government donated a diseases because an immune system not Gurven’s evolutionary approach is one that arrival of herders from the lawless regions ratios. She found that Australian women “The settlement 16-slice CT scanner to a nearby town, it was primed with the kinds of critters it has evol- is embraced at the IAST. “Sometimes I feel of Ulster and the Scottish Highlands. “The who today live in areas where there was for- of Australia by a unique opportunity to study heart disease ved to expect is more likely to attack itself.” more at home talking to economists, Scots-Irish settled across the US, so why did merly a high ratio of men are less likely to an overwhelmingly among the Tsimane. “We’ve been able to look psychologists and biologists, than with their taste for violence survive in the South break through the glass ceiling. “People in male convict population in the 18th into people’s arteries in a way that’s never been Modernity’s war on parasites may also have anthropologists. So the IAST is the kind of place and not the North? Within the South, I found these areas have more conservative attitudes: and 19th centuries was a natural done before. We found much less calcifi cation demographic implications. “We showed that I enjoy. Having Paul Seabright as the director, that if they settled in an area which had she- the man works and the woman stays at home. experiment which allows us than in your average American or European. parasites increase women’s fertility. A woman who mixes economics and biology, was very riff s and county courts, they didn’t transmit But men also spend more time with their child- to observe the effects of distorted There’s also very little high blood pressure and with intestinal worms was more likely to have appealing. Aida Nitsch is a biologist asking violent norms. But if they settled on the fron- ren. And women are happier.” Grosjean also sex ratios.” cholesterol is really low.” more kids, and at shorter intervals. Most bio- some questions that are similar to mine. tier, you see this violent culture locking in as a measured the eff ect on body mass index: medical histories focus on populations where Pauline Grosjean (see opposite) is an substitute for law enforcement.” “Women tend to be fatter in places where they Gurven and his team suspect exposure those pathogens don’t exist.” economist and yet brings fresh perspectives to used to compete less with other women. This is to certain pathogens may reduce heart old questions in anthropology.” also consistent with men favoring women for their child-bearing characteristics.”

To further her research on gender econo- COMMUNITY PERSONALITY MATTERS mics, Grosjean has won a grant to work with SPIRIT Personality evolution is an area of burgeo- IAST director Paul Seabright and she’s deter- ning interdisciplinary interest, says Gurven. mined to make the most of her visit. “I’m Gurven has not been “Economists are talking about it. Biologists really impressed by the way the IAST postdocs a passive observer; are over the moon thinking about what work together. People are really invested in he has facilitated shapes personality in organisms ranging GOLD RUSH healthcare for about from spiders to octupuses. We found psy- each other’s work. I’m talking to historians, 15,000 Amerindians. chology’s primary model (the Big Five) especially Mohamed Saleh, because he’s a Grosjean has linked contemporary vio- His contribution to didn’t hold in a small-scale society, where specialist on the Middle East and I have a lence to mineral discoveries that occurred other community no one’s ever studied this before. It’s forced parallel project on Islamist politics. I’m talking as the United States expanded across the Wild West in the 19th century. “If the dis- projects in Bolivia us to think about what is universal about to development economists, so Josepa Miquel- includes fundraising and covery happened before the creation of personality structure, what’s variable and Florensa and Matteo Bobba, and psycholo- organization for fl ood why? I found important differences that county institutions, we fi nd more violence gists like Jean-François Bonnefon. I’m also relief, well construction, matter in Tsimane lives: extroverted men historically, even today. Gold and silver is radio equipment and have more kids, whereas for women it de- talking with anthropologists. I looked at spe- easier to steal than copper so if there was teaching free classes in pends on where you live. Personality also cialization in the Solomon Islands, and Heidi no state to enforce property rights, you the Brazilian martial art seems to affect whether Tsimane pursue Colleran is setting up a fi eld site to look at gen- fi nd more violence where these minerals of capoeira. schooling or move closer to town.” der issues in Vanuatu, so it would be really cool were discovered.” to replicate something with her.” 8 WELCOME TO... www.iast.fr IN-DEPTH 9 HUMAN COOPERATION New chair kicks off • DAVID AUSTEN-SMITH • Past masters HOW GROUPS DECIDE • PETER TURCHIN & MOHAMED SALEH • In March, the IAST welcomed another academic heavyweight as David Austen- in collective decision-making, then introduce Smith made his first visit as holder of a prestigious new chair on information, some of the more robust findings from psy- HISTORY AS SCIENCE deliberation and collective choice. The Peter G Peterson professor of corporate chology, now being used in economics. The ethics and professor of political science and economics at Northwestern’s Kel- results should feed directly back to the stimu- Peter Turchin is an evolutionary anthropologist at the University of Connecticut who wants to revo- logg School of Management, he is already at work recruiting a post-doctoral stu- lus from biology.” lutionize the study of the past. An expert on dynamical systems analysis, the Russian-American dent to help him piece together the puzzle of group decisions. If all goes to plan, now aspires to paint big-picture history using big data, devising mathematical models to test social A former member of the scientific council, he’ll get a chance to enjoy Toulouse’s opera season too. science theories empirically. On an extended visit to Toulouse, he met up with Mohamed Saleh, Austen-Smith looks forward to interacting assistant professor at TSE and the IAST where he also directs the history program, who combines with Toulouse’s brilliant young minds on Austen-Smith wants to improve deci- So how does the voting rule affect the conver- novel data sources, economic theory and empirical methods to examine Middle Eastern econo- future visits. “The IAST is rare in doing inter- sion-making in complex environments such sation that precedes it? We now have a pretty mic history. Their intriguing discussion of the evolution of inequality, war and human cooperation disciplinary work seriously and successfully. as company boardrooms, legislatures, juries good answer: unanimity seems very bad for suggests we have much to gain from the debate on whether history can be treated as a ‘science’. or village councils. “We live in groups; we encouraging people to share information; The trick is to impose virtually no constraints. make decisions in groups. Very often, groups majority rule is much better.” You don’t decide ex ante which disciplines talk first about the relative merits of the alter- should talk to each other. You don’t force natives, then reach a decision through voting. Evolutionary biologists have given Austen- people to work together. The only real Smith a fresh perspective on conversation constraint is that your work must bear on dynamics. “Conversations in models I’ve wor- understanding human society, but that’s a ked with tend to happen all at once. It’s as if pretty broad remit. Over time, the people that we all wrote down our speech at the same come through here are going to bring other time and then revealed it. But real conversa- people on. There is a lot of enthusiasm.” tions have a to and fro; they evolve. Thinking in terms of how conversations might evolve and stimulate innovation turns out, for me KEY QUESTIONS at least, to be quite hard but I am optimistic The new chair is sponsored by Initatives that we can make progress.” d’Excellence (IDEX), which aims to pro- mote world-class interdisciplinary research Now he wants to draw on the IAST’s deep in France. Two questions will receive spe- well of talent and pump ideas in all direc- cial attention: tions. “The economics department here is 1/ How do groups allocate resources to explore alternatives before making full of people who have contributed hugely a decision? to our understanding of the role of informa- 2/ How do deliberations affect the quality tion in markets and decisions. The chair will and legitimacy of group decisions? explore the dynamics of evolving information Mohamed Saleh: To shift from theoretical PT: If you only focus on economic aspects, that are not measurable or materialistic, biology to history might seem strange to you miss out important things like power like psychological incentives. outsiders. What is the connection? relations and culture. looks for verbal theories proposed by social scientists, PT: I’m not saying cliodynamics proposes Peter Turchin: Well, there is no direct including economists, and translates them something completely new and different WHY I LOVE RESEARCH connection. I combine mathematical into the language of dynamical systems. from cliometrics. They are sister sciences models with data, so I asked myself, “What converging on the same outcome. But where Austen-Smith has been a professor for almost 40 years, but he’s still hooked on areas haven’t been addressed with this MS: I agree that 19th-century neo-clas- there is a primacy of economics, sometimes the adrenaline of discovery. “It’s so much approach?” Historians have stayed away sical economists were not interested in people forget there are other aspects. fun. I thoroughly enjoy the engagement with from mathematical theory, so that was the ideas about power and elites. But recently others. It’s exciting when something’s been challenge. these specific factors were included in eco- MS: Let me try to play devil’s advo- puzzling you and eventually you see, ‘Ah, nomic models. An economic approach is cate here. Many historians think that that’s how it works!’ With luck, other people MS: The economic-theory approach of clio- not necessarily about prices and wages, as cliometrics and cliodynamics are impe- will go, ‘Well, that’s obvious!’ because that’s metrics was out there before you founded it might also include power relations and rialist approaches by economists or bio- how it should be if it’s right.” cliodynamics. Why do you think there was themes from political science, sociology logists who try to impose their scientific a need for a new perspective? and so on. It might even include things methods on history without much 10 IN-DEPTH www.iast.fr 11 HUMAN COOPERATION War, peace and inequality • PETER TURCHIN • REMAKING HISTORY AT THE IAST appreciation of the historical context. 0 Constitutional Moreover, it’s extremely diffi cult to fi nd THE Z-CURVE OF EGALITARIANISM Democracies CONFLICT AND COOPERATION general laws in history. We’re dealing 100 Years BP Years with human beings over time after all, MS: Let me now turn in the remainder of 1000 Archaic MS: Your theory emphasizes the role of PT: War created these hugely unequal KHALDUN VS MACHIAVELLI States cooperation. Neo-classical economic societies and then destroyed them. and not with metals in the physical world. this interview to ask you about your own 10000 Foraging theory treats humans as purely selfi sh. Roughly 12,000 years ago, we stopped The 14th-century Arab scholar Personally, to my taste, I prefer a school work. Do general principles also govern 100000 Bands presents an interesting theoretical alterna- non-human species? How do the two compare? being hit by repeated ice ages, human of history that lies in the middle between 1000000 tive to the thinkers of early modern Europe. social science and humanities; it takes the Ancestral populations grew in density so confl ict Arguably the father of rational-choice 10000000 Primate Groups historical context seriously and uses data, PT: You would have to look at something PT: Rational-choice theory provides a heated up because there was less space to theory, Niccolò Machiavelli assumed that Structural inequality empirics and theory up to a limit that does really abstract to fi nd parallels between complementary answer, but not an alter- escape from aggressive neighbors. Warfare humans are completely rational beings not go far beyond the specifi c context. ants and human society. The queen is not native. If everybody was selfi sh all the drove societies to become more centra- with entirely selfi sh motives. In contrast, a ruler, she’s just a bag of eggs. Insect socie- MS: Why wouldn’t the best hunter time, society would be impossible. The lized. Leaders became corrupted by their Khaldun’s central concept was asabiya, ties don’t have chains of command like become a chief? evolution of cooperation is one of the lar- power, which inevitably led to inequality. which can be translated as social cohe- complex human societies, because every- gest unresolved issues in all sciences: how sion or collective solidarity. Turchin’s work draws inspiration from body’s equal. They are all messengers sen- did humans become capable of coopera- About 2,500 years ago, new military tech- PT: Because to take down a mammoth you Khaldun’s theory on the role of asabiya in ding pheromone signals. are much better off having 10-15 people ting in groups of 50 million people (the nology put even stronger pressure on the rise and fall of tribes, dynasties and who are equals, than one huge guy and 14 population of France)? The only theore- societies. Unequal societies only had coo- empires. Khaldun observed that people MS: Among primates, isn’t there usually oppressed small guys. tically sound and empirically supported peration among the elites so they started in the North African desert lived under an alpha male controlling the tribe, then answer is, briefl y, very Khaldunian (see losing ground to larger, more equal socie- constant external pressure from the en- some rebel that has to kill the alpha to MS: What happened after the shift to panel). We cooperate to compete. Society ties. You can’t give a slave a rifl e, because vironment and other groups. Groups with become a new dictator? agriculture and the Neolithic evolution? fails unless people have internalized they will use those rifl es against you. By high asabiya would defeat less cooperative groups, such as those used to the more PT: Even when historians say that there are beliefs about the value of being good. the late 19th-century, Europe was crea- PT: For more than 90 per cent of our evolu- PT: I call it the Z-curve of human egalita- comfortable environment of the coastal ci- no general principles, they use them in their ting million-strong armies so its elites were ties. Here, the removal of pressure causes tionary history, humans lived in very ega- rianism. We start with fairly inegalitarian MS: What triggered all these shifts in forced to introduce democracy to increase work. Part of any good narrative history is litarian societies. Anyone who wanted to the conquerors’ asabiya to decline, a new great apes. Then by 200,000 years ago, inequality and cooperation? cooperation. cohesive desert group takes over and the explanatory. become an alpha male was usually sup- humans were very egalitarian. Another tur- cycle continues. pressed. Alpha-male competition selects ning point was getting agriculture 10,000 MS: Yes, but they don’t claim that what for male strength, so female chimps and years ago leading to the bad days of god happened in England during the Glorious gorillas tend to be much smaller and kings, despotic states and complex chief- FRONTIER SPIRIT Revolution applies to Russia in the 19th weaker. In humans, there’s much less doms. The last turning point was about century, or the Bolsheviks in 1917. diff erence between men and women, 2,000 years ago - since then human life, MS: In ‘War and Peace and War’ in 2005, - Isis, Taliban, Hezbollah - originated on FORWARD THINKING indicating the lower level of competition for most people, became much better. In you predicted the rise of a new cali- metaethnic frontiers. If the West is smart PT: True, but their explanatory apparatus between males. France today, there’s no nobility, no lega- phate in the Middle East. What do you and leaves them alone, there would be MS: What is the future of your research? has general components which, if they are lized slavery and no human sacrifi ce. think is the future of the Arab world? no additional pressure for Isis to become studying a revolution, would apply to many a true caliphate, conquering Jordan, Saudi PT: I’m involved in building a database so other revolutions. Historians sneak in gene- PT: Historically, where an imperial frontier Arabia, and north Africa. we can test all these hypotheses. It’s called ral principles through the back door. coincides with a faultline between two , the name of the Egyptian deity of diff erent integrative ideologies - typically MS: One can think of counter examples scribing, information and databases. All complex societies larger than a million world religions – those regions produce in which there was pressure from two people have features that are uniformly very aggressive groups who build states empires and nothing happened. MS: Finally, what is your impression of the shared. They have rulers, elites, and unifying and expand. The Middle East has been a IAST and life in Toulouse? ideologies or religions. If they’re an agrarian metaethnic frontier between Christians, PT: These things take time. In my book society, they’re fueled by a certain kind of now the West, and Islam for more than Historical Dynamics, I take the last 2,000 PT: It’s winter and it’s 15 degrees and sunny! economic relations. When Spanish conquis- 1,400 years. American occupation provi- years of Western Eurasia and divide it into My wife and I love being in Toulouse, the fi rst tadors entered Mexico and Peru, they said, ded that extra kick, so that’s why I made regions designated as either ‘on frontier’ capital of the Visigothic kingdom. It’s lovely “OK, that’s the king, there are the nobles that prediction. or not. It’s not perfect, but I fi nd a highly to walk around these beautiful cathedrals and the commoners.” They saw similarities statistically signifi cant relation between and medieval streets. I see an excellent future MS: Will radical groups like Islamic State being on a metaethnic frontier and 200- between their societies which had deve- MOHAMED SALEH PETER TURCHIN for the IAST because transdisciplinary loped completely independently. ASSISTANT PROFESSOR EVOLUTIONARY ANTHROPOLOGIST be able to sustain themselves? 400 years later having a large state arise research is where all the breakthroughs have AT TSE AND THE IAST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT PT: All the cohesive groups in Islam in that location. come in recent years. 12 IN-DEPTH www.iast.fr 13 HUMAN COOPERATION

France Germany 100.0% 100.0%

Battle of the spouses 80.0% 80.0% 87.0 87.0 82.6 81.2 81.2 81.2 79.7 • ASTRID HOPFENSITZ • WHO PROVIDES? 60.0% 78.3 60.0% 63.2 59.8 The acceptance of lower, more equal ear- 40.0% 40.0% 54.0 51.7 49.4 WHAT IF WOMEN EARNED MORE? nings may be an attempt to avoid rela- 48.3 42.5 40.2 tionship problems. “Where there is income 20.0% 20.0% Without a seat at the kitchen table, academics investigating the dynamics of inequality, either the high earner keeps more

household cooperation have often been frustrated. Astrid Hopfensitz wants to change and makes the other unhappy; or he shares % of participants 0.0% 0.0% this and her experiments are an innovative, abstract attempt to peer through the equally, placing the spouse in a dependent 0/300 75/225 225/75 300/0 0/300 75/225 225/75 300/0 Repartition (participant/spouse) keyhole. As well as extensive work on spouses, she has looked at how players relationship. Some couples are willing to pay a Males Females in sports teams coordinate and is now studying interaction between siblings. price to avoid such uncomfortable situations.” Percentage of women and men who chose a higher income (300 as opposed to 200) for their couple but with an unequal repartition between participants and their spouses in France and Germany. “The big theme spanning my work is what hap- The results show intriguing patterns of pens when people know something about their coordination. “People who are effi cient have interaction partner. The IAST is not just about partners who also prefer effi ciency. Micro THE GERMAN WAY The Tsimane are much more used to aiming interdisciplinary work; it’s also about looking norms appear to exist in couples; people jointly for effi ciency in this context, says Hopfensitz, into the dynamics or underlying behavior know what they should do. I don’t want to German couples show much more concern because they are less involved in a monetary behind very simplistic models.” say those who choose one option are hap- for income equality (see chart). “In France economy. “Tsimane households have much pier than another – it’s just a diff erent way to you have a strong belief that children should more need for diff erent skill sets: to hunt, to Cooperation is a term used in diff erent ways solve problems.” be socialized very early, perhaps in a crèche. dig out roots, etc. They cannot trade off the (see panel), and agreeing on a defi nition is In Germany there is very strong social pres- time of one parent against the other as easily only the start of the challenge. “What hap- sure that women stay with young children as Europeans can.” pens in families is usually behind closed doors, to protect them. There is a lot of inequality in so it’s very diffi cult to study them. It’s often assu- German households but it’s not about a prefe- med that a family is acting as if it’s one person. rence. They would feel like bad parents if they FACING THE FUTURE But easy introspection tells us that no family is didn’t obey the social norm. German couples Cooperation is not just a central theme in aiming for the same goal. There’s a lot of bar- While most couples opted to maximize joint focus on small-scale equality – for example, Hopfensitz’s work, it’s integral to her gaining going on, fi ghts, or agreements that earnings, avoiding inequality was an impor- paying for meals individually – because society methods and pushes her research into may be unstable.” tant concern. “If a household wants to make as imposes inequality on a larger scale.” challenging new areas. Developments in much money as possible, they should choose facial analysis technology have underpinned HOME ECONOMICS option B. What’s interesting are those couples LIFE IN THE AMAZON recent research into EU election campaigns willing to accept reduced effi ciency for more with IAST political science program director Hopfensitz is particularly interested in equality. Why? There’s no gender diff erence. A follow-up study in Toulouse suggests Small-scale subsistence societies have diff e- Karine van der Straeten and studying the Rainbow science labor specialization by men and women. And it’s not about people being egoistic.” women do not have a greater preference rent priorities. Hopfensitz teamed up with role of smiles with IAST director Paul “Economists want to fi gure out how households for doing things that will benefi t the whole the IAST’s Jonathan Stieglitz, an evolutio- Seabright. Cooperation, in every sense, is Astrid Hopfensitz has a gift for the participate in a labor market. We often fi nd that unexpected. Even by IAST standards, her household: for example, housework. Work nary anthropologist, to run a similar experi- at the core of the IAST project. scope and industry are impressive. Her the man has a higher salary, so he earns as WORKING TOGETHER division must be driven instead by factors ment among the Tsimane people in Bolivia. PhD is in experimental economics but much as possible and the woman takes care of outside the home, such as higher salaries “Using shares of dried meat as currency, we Cooperation is a very broad term. From an she’s also the IAST’s psychology program the family. This is a typical, very effi cient, very for men or gender norms. “If women in the found that all of them chose the effi cient out- economist’s perspective, which overlaps director, an unfl appable conference unequal outcome. There is always some sha- study earn more, they stay in their job and come,” she says. “When we switched to money, with biology and psychology, it encom- organizer and used to collaborating ring going on, but the man has more power.” passes the following types of behavior: the husbands invest in the household. That’s some of them – less than in Europe – start to with anthropologists, biologists, political exactly symmetrical to where men have the go for the equal outcome, especially women scientists and logicians. Altruism Recent experiments by Hopfensitz focused higher salary, so there is something external concerned about their husbands not bringing Yet she still fi nds time I incur a cost to help someone else for startlingly beautiful on heterosexual couples in France, Germany going on.” the money home.” craftwork, producing and Bolivia. The initial task in Toulouse Trust intricate mosaics, consisted of fi ve question rounds (see panel). I incur risk, expecting a return from bold-brush oil Responding independently and anony- someone else > Effi ciency-Equality Trade-off within French and German Couples paintings and soft > What if women earned more than their spouse? mously, both spouses could choose either Coordination toys for her kids. 200 units split between the couple equally I agree to work with someone else for An experimental investigation of work division in couples (option A) or 300 units split unequally mutual benefi t > Do couples cooperate? (option B). 14 IAST ENCOUNTERS www.iast.fr IAST Connect #8 15 Soccer, stats and s ocial science • SIMON KUPER • TEAM IAST TACKL ES A TOP JOURNALIST

THE THINKING The beautiful game MAN’S GAME WHAT MAKES THE FOOTBALL WORLD GO ROUND? INSIGHTS FROM Kuper has long been interested in the anthropology and history of sport. He has SIMON KUPER’S also collaborated with economists, notably Stefan Szymanski, using statistics and econometrics to study football. His books include Football Against the Enemy and ‘SOCCERNOMICS’ the best-selling Soccernomics. • Apart from a few overachievers like Alex Ferguson, football managers Heidi Colleran: What is it about sports There’s a lot of bad academics, bad journa- don’t really matter that drew you in? lists, but there’s not really any bad footballers. A numbers game • Clubs should use the wisdom of Simon Kuper: Luckily I’ve had a general Paul Seabright: But in your book you argue DATA: THE NEW GOLD MINE crowds column for the past five years, so I’ve been that having a brilliant star who dribbles able to escape the sports environment. halfway down the pitch is not how to Heidi Colleran: When you first started Charlotte Cavaillé: Isn’t ideology • High wages bring more success than Simon Kuper is an ideas There’s an enormous amount of pub talk: win, it’s knowing how to pass. That’s com- using numbers, did you find yourself coming back through questions about expensive transfers entrepreneur. “The coach used to be good but now he’s lost mon-sense altruism. ill-equipped to make sense of them? inequality? No one read Thomas • New managers waste money As a Financial Times columnist it… The French don’t have the will to win…” Piketty, but they tried. based in Paris and the son of British I could see it was stupid but I didn’t have a SK: A successful football team is a successful Simon Kuper: I joined the Financial Times • Older players, centre forwards and anthropologist Adam Kuper, way to counter that until I met Stefan and collective. You could say the aim is to contri- because it was the only British newspaper SK: There’s an interest in inequality but World Cup stars are overvalued he has successfully bridged the he said, “Look, there’s data that would answer bute in an altruistic way, but strictly for your trying to explain how the world works. It there aren’t any politicians who think they worlds of academia, sport and a lot of the big questions in football.” own benefit and on a very short time hori- taught me how to deal with numbers, the can solve it. And the public doesn’t believe • Football clubs don’t (and shouldn’t) journalism. In November he took part zon. If they’re playing without you, it’s much primacy of economics, and something about them if they promise to. make money in a colourful exchange of ideas with Heidi Colleran: Do you still love football? better that the team loses. how companies work. • On average, penalties decide games eager IAST researchers animated by Boris Van Leeuwen: In the Netherlands, fairly Heidi Colleran, who is a big fan of his SK: I’ve gone off it a bit. The fan sees Arsenal César Mantilla: Given that you’re more Heidi Colleran: Are we obsessed they want the public to put things on father’s work. run on to the field and this is a magical thing likely to go unnoticed in a football team with measuring things? the scientific agenda. Can the flow of • Hosting a World Cup doesn’t make “I’m very excited to discover the IAST. in his life. But as a journalist who’s been behind than in a basketball team, does it change information from social science to the you rich, but it does make you To be completely interdisciplinary and the curtain you see a very cynical environment, the players’ psychology? SK: There’s a general lack of faith in all ideo- public work the other way round? happier so informal – this is a dream place for where every person is a one-man business. logy now. Both right and left have a crisis me,” he told us. “I’m also very excited SK: The average footballer has the ball for of confidence. So you fall back on numbers SK: A key political fact is: most people don’t • England doesn’t underperform, it that it’s in English because it’s the Charlotte Cavaillé: So you find one minute per game - it’s very hard to gauge because they seem more objective. We’re care. So our maths can be very misleading. does exactly as well as you’d expect only way for debate in France to be no evidence of altruism? his contribution in the other 89 minutes. much better now at crunching and using But now, just through Google searches and for a country of its size, wealth and international. People at the IAST have Then goals are so rare that it’s very hard to them. We know how many people cycle past a looking at Facebook, using big data, you history an enormous amount to say. I would SK: Altruism doesn’t exist in the football see what causes them. The only thing data spot in the road. Newspapers know who reads can get an insight into, say, German society • Clubs used to discriminate against recommend any colleague to visit. You business because you’re judged ruthlessly has changed hugely in football is the physi- which article and how far down they read. We that would have been unthinkable 10 years black players, now they discriminate can steal ideas!” on your performance. If you’re perceived cal performance of players because now no longer have to guess how many people ago. It’s not everything but it’s huge, it’s against black managers as a bad player, the club will get rid of you. they’re better at preparing them. live in poverty. Data is a new gold mine. very exciting. • Illegal discrimination against women is taken for granted

• Norway and Iceland are the most football-loving countries in Europe

• Rather than prompting suicide, football stops thousands of people from killing themselves

HEIDI COLLERAN CHARLOTTE CAVAILLÉ PAUL SEABRIGHT CÉSAR MANTILLA BORIS VAN LEEUWEN JONATHAN STIEGLITZ SREEMATI MITTER DOMINIK DUELL DANIEL CHEN 16 IAST ENCOUNTERS www.iast.fr IAST Connect #8 THINK TANK 17

The communication Bridging the Atlantic game • WILLIAM KOVACIC • SIMON KUPER • WHY ACADEMICS MUST REACH OUT ‘THRILLING WORK’ AT THE FTC Everyone stands to benefi t from deeper interaction between researchers and society. KUPER’S William Kovacic is a professor of law at George Washington University and ser- As a leading journalist and best-selling author, Simon Kuper has expert advice on how ved as a commissioner of the United States Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to navigate the ideas marketplace. The IAST panel was quick to take advantage. TOP TIPS from 2006 to 2011. Visiting Toulouse for a conference on competition policy, innovation and procurement in December, he told us about his experience at the Charlotte Cavaillé: Is there public Jonathan Stieglitz: Even when substan- HOW TO BE FTC and his latest research. interest in academic research? tial eff orts are made to communicate AN IDEAS fi ndings, there’s still lots of scepticism. Putting ideas into action at the FTC gave prevents many government agencies from Simon Kuper: I was at the Kilkenomics fes- ENTREPRENEUR Kovacic great satisfaction. “For an acade- contracting the best providers, he says, tival in southern Ireland last week. It’s incre- SK: Perhaps if people felt academics were mic, it was thrilling to see theory meet prac- because they are forced to rely on US-based WRITE BETTER. If you write clearly, dibly democratic. You have 800 people trying to reach them… People are terrifi ed tice. From an environment of talking and companies. “The number of areas where there are threatened.” He believes this threat might people will want to read it. The story listening to Naseem Taleb. People are lea- of academia, they didn’t do well at school reading about it, you arrive at a place where might be a US-based company leading the help to convince the two sides of the Atlantic ning in, desperate to learn. One sadness I’ve and then you use this language they don’t and the form determine whether you’re actually trying to do it.” As commis- market is shrinking. We need to be more open to cooperate. “The silver lining of the current always felt about academia is that so much understand. They shut themselves off from anyone will care. sioner, he had three objectives: to enhance to international companies taking up procu- crisis we are facing is that it might make that fantastic work gets done, and so little pene- intellectual growth. competition and consumer protection pro- rement contracts.” emergency more tangible.” BE BRIEF. To strengthen your message, trates. You have this language which says, ‘I grams; to conduct a self-assessment of the cut every sentence in half. am you, you are one of me – give me tenure!’ Sreemati Mitter: I’m a historian and we’d agency; and to improve cooperation and He is cautiously optimistic about future col- The widening salary gap between the There is no real attempt by most academics be very upset that no one was talking AVOID JARGON. Don’t use long words partnerships with other institutions both in laborations between Europe and the United public and private sectors is another serious to speak more broadly. to us. that are unnecessary. Don’t say “current the US and abroad. States. “There is a growing sense of emergency concern. “When the gap becomes so large, you among the nations of the European Union, the start to lose the people with the greatest skills. account surplus”. Stop, explain it. CC: But people like me have no incentives SK: History is the fi eld that communicates Kovacic makes a powerful argument for an United States and Or you only get them for a very short time and to learn how to translate our work to the best with the public, partly because history BE HUMAN. Write about people. integrated transatlantic procurement mar- Canada that our the teams change very often.” Kovacic belie- public. You might be the only person I’ve has so much story-telling. The number of There has to be a main character for ket. US procurement regulation currently shared interests areas where there ves this might explain the current crisis in met who speaks both languages. the reader to care about. If it’s nobody might be a US- public services: “We aren’t paying enough Dominik Duell: Many of my academic based company for a good service.” SK: In the UK they grade academics on impact. colleagues start writing on blogs and else, it’s yourself. leading the market is shrinking. If you write an article in a newspaper, that become bad journalists. They don’t STAY ON TARGET. In short pieces, Kovacic is a keen advocate of the IAST’s plu- counts as impact. But I agree that’s very rare. think about the complexity they stu- We need to be there can only be one message. more open to ridisciplinarity and its real-world applica- died for years. They think: “I need to international tions, remarking that his job at the FTC put down a story by tomorrow.” That’s DON’T BE BORING. Dull writers won’t companies taking required extensive knowledge from a wide Lives saved from suicide in soccer years* not what we should do. We should be get asked back. up procurement variety of fi elds:“In addition to law, I very much contracts. Male lives saved Female lives saved patient and look for opportunities to relied on economics, public management, his- say, “Hey, you wrote about this, I think Austria 46 15 BE PATIENT. There is an opening to tory and, of course, political science.” your numbers are wrong. I have research blog on news websites. But wait until Czech Republic 55 12 on that.” you’ve really got a chance to publish Denmark 37 47 good work. France 95 82 Daniel Chen: Would you recommend that TRADING PLACES ILLUSTRATE. People remember Germany 61 39 academics all submit op-eds? While he enjoys his academic position at Greece 9 13 a story. the George Washington University, Kovacic SK: You should think: “I’ve spent 20 years Ireland 19 -10 has fond memories of his time at the FTC. thinking about this topic, I can communicate PUNISH ERRORS. If a journalist writes Mostly, he misses “the opportunity to work Netherlands -10 -1 with the 20 other people who know a lot about rubbish, shame them on social media. on projects with tangible effects on the life Norway [92 lives saved spread across both genders] it, and who disagree with me; or I can reach Use their Twitter handle. of common citizen”. But he also pines for the agency’s social environment, noting Spain 2 -3 out.” There’s something beautiful in that. NETWORK. Journalists obsessively that a researcher’s life tends to be lone- Sweden 44 16 There’s also a growing economic market in use Twitter. If you know any who are lier: “In some instances you get to work Switzerland 20 2 ideas. By writing that op-ed, you can also with colleagues on team projects or attend interested in your subject, ask them have a career in the ideas marketplace which conferences, like this one hosted by IAST, *Lives saved’ represents the decline in deaths during years when the might be more lucrative, useful and fun. to retweet your article. but most of the time you work on your own.” national team plays in a tournament, compared to the average year

18 DISTINGUISHED LECTURES www.iast.fr IAST Connect #8 19

FAMILY VALUES The future of family KEY TYPES IN TODD’S • EMMANUEL TODD • CLASSIFICATION Absolute nuclear BEYOND THE NUCLEAR PATH • Characteristics: Unequal inheritance; children leave the household early; no cousin marriage; hyper-individualist Historian, sociologist, demographer and political scientist, Emmanuel Todd is a • Found in: Anglo-Saxon countries, Netherlands, Denmark prolifi c intellectual. Contrary to his public image as the turbulent priest of the • Ideologies: Christianity, capitalism, ‘libertarian’ liberalism, French left, he is much more at home sifting statistics and patiently mapping feminism family structures. So when invited to give the fi nal talk in the IAST’s 2015 Dis- Egalitarian nuclear tinguished Lecture series, he was happy to focus on his true passion: research. • Characteristics: Equal inheritance; children leave the household early; no cousin marriage; individualist developments such as the education and • Found in: Northern France, northern Italy, central and rights of women, industrialisation and the southern Spain, central Portugal, Greece, Romania, spread of ideologies. Poland, Latin America, Ethiopia • Ideologies: Catholicism; the ‘liberté, egalité, fraternité’ The Western family has always been nuclear, SIMPLIFIED MAP OF form of liberalism says Todd, and male-dominated family sys- EMMANUEL TODD’S Stem/authoritarian CLASSIFICATION tems developed later. “Found on the periphery • Characteristics: Unequal inheritance; married heir lives of Eurasia, the nuclear family is the original with father; little or no cousin marriage Absolute nuclear type for Homo sapiens: it’s based on the couple • Found in: Germany, Austria, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Egalitarian nuclear and girls are not excluded from inheritance, bohemia, Scotland, Ireland, peripheral regions of France, Stem/authoritarian so it’s relatively egalitarian. In Germany and northern Spain, northern Portugal, Japan, Korea, Jews, Exogamous community Japan, you fi nd the stem family: the eldest son Romany gypsies Endogamous community “I’ve always considered myself a sort of mad inherits, there’s the basic principle of inequa- • Ideologies: Socialism or social democracy, Catholicism, scientist,” says Todd. “I’m extremely proud lity and a much stronger authority pattern. In Asymmetrical community Fascism Anomic that in my books I reached conclusions that I Russia, China and northern India, you fi nd the Exogamous community African strongly disliked as a citizen. But I always have exogamous community family consisting of • Characteristics: Equal inheritance; sons live with father; to deal with people who think I’m producing the father, his married sons and equal inheri- no cousin marriage ideology. I’m not. I’m just interested in disco- tance. The endogamous community family These diff erences are shocking, says Todd, something similar has taken place in Germany. So when we say to the highly • Found in: Russia, Yugoslavia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary, vering things.” of the Arabs is the most patrilineal because and are due to the male bias of stem family patrilineal populations of China, northern India, the Arab world, ‘You need to Finland, Albania, central Italy, China, Vietnam, Cuba, women are trapped inside the family system.” systems. “Demography tells us that a measure liberate women and follow us,’ in fact we’re saying, ‘You need to go backwards.’ north India It’s this questing spirit that underpins Todd’s of equality between men and women is good That’s why it’s so diffi cult.” • Ideologies: Communism prophetic gift. In 1976, aged 25, he pre- With the advent of globalization, there are for the health of societies. The countries that Endogamous community dicted the fall of the . Now at signs that the more anti-individualistic sys- maintain their fertility are those that make it While Germany and Japan face uncertain futures, Todd is fascinated by • Characteristics: Equal inheritance; sons live with father; the prestigious Institut National d’Etudes tems are converging on the Western model. compatible for women to study, have a career the possibility of a new family system evolving. “It’s extraordinary that in frequent cousin marriage and family.” the midst of the Ukraine confl ict, what really upsets the Anglo-American press Démographiques (INED), Todd’s skill is to Todd notes the fall of fertility rates, even in • Found in: Arab world, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, about Putin’s Russia is its homophobia - this question of sexuality is at the heart tirelessly correlate simple indicators, buil- Africa, and the spread of birth control. But Divergent fertility rates will have massive Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tadzhikistan ding maps from data found in archives and patrilineal values resist, he says, pointing to implications for the way we live. “In France of a geopolitical divide. In the West, there’s an inverted imbalance of the sexes • Ideologies: Islam anthropological monographs. “I feel at home the selective abortion of females in China: we don’t have a great need to accommodate when more women go on to higher education than men. If you add the preoc- Asymmetrical community at INED because it’s the world of statistics. I enjoy “The natural rate of male births to every hun- Syrian refugees, but Germany is obsessed with cupation with homosexuality, I’m trying to imagine the possibility of the West • Characteristics: Equal inheritance; sons live with father; looking for odd fi gures that lead to discoveries. dred females is 106 to 107 at most. China now renewing its population. I don’t disapprove of moving beyond the original type.” restricted cousin marriage If you make a map, you can’t lie in choosing has sex ratios as high as 120. This is massive the opening of borders by Angela Merkel, but • Found in: Southern India what suits you, you have to cover all the space.” and it will pose spectacular diffi culties. The fall there is a demographical logic behind this. In Toulouse, a new intellectual climate is evolving and Todd clearly fi nds • Ideologies: Hinduism; Communism of Communism has not been good for the sta- Japan has the same problem but it prefers to it invigorating. “It’s been wonderful. I’ve very much enjoyed the people I’ve Todd has spent decades developing a glo- tus of women.” see its population decline rather than lose its met, they’re very open-minded. I’m not completely lucid because every time Anomic bal classifi cation of traditional family types. cultural homogeneity.” I come to Toulouse I enter a natural state of euphoria, of happiness, so I can’t • Characteristics: Nuclear family but cohabitation accepted Cousin marriage, co-residence and inheri- Even more troubling, says Todd, are repro- tell things apart. Perhaps it’s the people here, the IAST, or perhaps it’s Toulouse in practice; cousin marriage accepted tance are key variables. For instance, parent- duction problems among advanced nations. Promoting the emancipation of women - I’ll never know!” • Found in: Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, child relations are labelled ‘authoritarian’ if “In the Anglo-American world, France, Belgium, beyond the West will be like turning round Indonesia, Philippines, Madagascar, South-American adult children live with their parents, while parts of Scandinavia, fertility is around 2 child- an oil tanker. “The heavy tendency of human Indian cultures sibling relations are ‘equal’ or ‘unequal’ ren per woman. With a few immigrants, that’s history, until very recently, was the accentua- African

depending on the division of inheritance. a balanced system. But in Germany and Japan, tion of patrilineal principles. The dynamic of WATCH OUR INTERVIEW • Characteristics: Exogamous polygamy, unstable household Todd Emmanuel by (1989) Ideology of The Explanation Using these strict categories, Todd has been fertility is around 1.4 children per woman. Japan since the 16th century has been the WITH EMMANUEL TODD

able to link family organization to modern Korea has fallen even lower.” decline in the status of women. I’m convinced Source: 20 FUTURE FOCUS www.iast.fr IAST Connect #8 21

ANTHROPOLOGY THE RISE OF BIOSOCIAL SCIENCE 2020 Visions BORIS VANBIOLOGY LEEUWEN PATHOGENS WILL WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN A WORLD OF CHANGE SAVE LIVES MICHAEL GURVEN ECONOMICS Biosocial science will be a very interesting area. In ANTHROPOLOGY the next few years there will be a shift towards more

high-powered studies, using more advanced analy- ANTHROPOLOGY sis. More and more techniquesHISTORY are emerging from There will be increasing appreciation that diff erent fi elds. It’s going to be very exciting. the diverse micro-ecologyBIOLOGY of the human Eventually, it will be accepted that not only body is important for human health - not just for allergies and autoimmune disease, but for do economists do experiments, they also ANTHROPOLOGY BIOLOGY LAW other chronic diseases aff ecting hygienic envi- look at genetic data, hormones, neu- ECONOMICS roimaging and facial expressions. ronments. These include type 2 diabetes ANTHROPOLOGY OUTDATED NORMS and heart disease. Future research will ECONOMICS PHILOSOPHY PAULINEBIOLOGY GROSJEAN likely pursue pharmacological interven- tions that mimic theHISTORY positive immune BIOLOGY priming eff ects of pathogens, but wit- hout the morbidity.HISTORY POLITICAL SCIENCE Anthropology, historyECONOMICS and biology can help LAW economists understand diff erences between men ECONOMICS and women. Today, research is still too often based LAW PSYCHOLOGY on the behavior of WEIRDHISTORY people (Western, educated, ANTHROPOLOGY industrialized, rich and democratic). But variation in gen- PHILOSOPHY HISTORY der roles across societies, ecological niches and time will PHILOSOPHY SOCIOLOGY force economists to thinkLAW again about how gender ROBOT EFFECTIVENESS BIOLOGY norms emerge and interact with economic deve- JEAN-FRANÇOISPOLITICAL SCIENCE BONNEFON lopment. In parallel, evolutionary biologists LAW bring tools to understand how gender POLITICAL SCIENCE diff erences canPHILOSOPHY co-evolve with the ECONOMICS PSYCHOLOGY The IAST takes an innovative and interdisciplinary approach to answering the big THE FUTURE OF MORALITY environment. Millions of autonomous machines will questions of the 21st century, inviting some of academia’s biggest names and CHARLOTTEPHILOSOPHY CAVAILLÉ soon have to make ethical decisions. PSYCHOLOGY brightest prospects to work together to produce fresh perspectives. Here, IAST POLITICAL SCIENCE For example, will your self-driving car members and ANTHROPOLOGYvisitors extrapolate from their research areas to highlight some of HISTORY decide to crash and killSOCIOLOGY you, if doing so can the major issues that will change the way we look at the world in 2020 and beyond. save a dozen children on the road? These What is the naturePOLITICAL of SCIENCE moral outrage? Why decisions cannot SOCIOLOGYbe resolved by techno- PSYCHOLOGY do we diff er in what we get outraged about? logy alone: social scientists must ensure BIOLOGY LAW This topic has been taken on by philosophers and that ethical algorithms serve both the moral, evolutionary andPSYCHOLOGY cognitive psychologists with preferences of individuals and the REFUGEES’ RIGHTS THE DANGERS OF SCIENCE limited success. We have some understanding of the SOCIOLOGY greater good of their societies. SREEMATIECONOMICS MITTER DOMINIKPHILOSOPHY DUELL hardwire underlying these behavioral traits, we COLLAPSING DEMOGRAPHY

can measure how theySOCIOLOGY manifest themselves in HEIDI COLLERAN everyday life and in politics, but the theory is still a little weak. Hopefully, this We need a comprehensiveHISTORY and just solution, We will be able toPOLITICAL structure SCIENCE political, econo- eff ervescence will produce some ANTHROPOLOGY not only for today’s crisis in Syria, but also for mic and social interactions in a way that fi ts better ground-breaking contribution. Demographers predict that, by the end of this refugees from the 1948 Palestinian exodus, the Iraqi with how we feel and think, and how our bodies work. century, family sizes will have globally converged wars, and confl icts in LibyaLAW and Yemen. I hope that, by The ever-advancing integrationPSYCHOLOGY of social sciences, biology, at or below replacement levels. This would repre- 2020, the thousands who have been displaced all over neurology and medicine is helping us to understand how the sent an unprecedented BIOLOGYnew age of low fertility, with the Middle East will have been able to return to their human body, heart and mind respond to and shape social massive ramifi cations for wage-labor structuring, pension systems, family dynamics, socio-economic stratifi ca- homes or to rebuild theirPHILOSOPHY lives in host countries. We systems. But do we wantSOCIOLOGY to live with the moral conse- need an international legal regime to ensure quences of governments that subconsciously nudge tion, inequality and wellbeing. Interdisciplinary ECONOMICS refugees and stateless people are treated as us to pay our taxes on time, billboards that scan contributions are needed now to understand individuals, guaranteed the same rights our eyes to run personally targeted ads based how and why people make reproduc- to life and dignityPOLITICAL SCIENCE as the rest of us. on our shopping history, and workplace tive decisions, and how these produce design that primes one emotional state macro-level patterns.HISTORY over others? PSYCHOLOGY

LAW

SOCIOLOGY

PHILOSOPHY

POLITICAL SCIENCE

PSYCHOLOGY

SOCIOLOGY 22 BEYOND THE IAST www.iast.fr IAST Connect #8 23

César Mantilla to an assistant Homeward bound professorship at the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá, • BORIS VAN LEEUWEN • Sreemati Mitter Colombia to an assistant professorship (tenure WHAT’S IN A FACE? track) at the history department and the The IAST has an exceptional ability to energise the work of outstanding young Watson Institute at DATES researchers. Just ask Boris van Leeuwen. Even as he prepares for a prestigious Brown University, from new role at Tilburg University, he plans to stay closely involved with the IAST pro- September 2016 FOR THE ject. He’ll miss the Toulouse sunshine and hiking in the Pyrenees, he tells IAST Charlotte Cavaillé DIARY Connect, and an intellectual environment which has inspired him to branch out to an assistant in original and ambitious ways. professorship (tenure track) at the June 16, Georgetown School 2016 This summer Van Leeuwen will be heading One of the most attractive qualities of the of Foreign Service, Digital Forum - home. “I’m an experimental economist, and IAST is that even as researchers leave, their from January 2017 Paris “Changing Tilburg has a very nice group in this fi eld. My dialogue with this uniquely interdisciplinary Organisations in whole family lives in Amsterdam, I grew up project continues. “This last year I’ve really the Digital Age” June there, so that’s great too. My wife is originally started to develop new research with econo- 20-21, from Spain but we both wanted to move back mists, psychologists and biologists from the 2016 to the Netherlands at some point. At Tilburg I IAST. Astrid Hopfensitz (see page 12) and Norm, Actions will have a tenure-track position so this was a I will run experiments together after the sum- June 27, and Games good opportunity.” mer, so I defi nitely want to stay in touch with 2016 Conference her. I am also organizing an IAST workshop Networks, Van Leeuwen derives great satisfaction from called The Human Face in Economics [May Information and his work and the exciting new directions it 19-20] with Jean-François Bonnefon, and Business: Innovation, has taken at the IAST. “I study faces a lot. I’m afterwards we want to continue working Finance and Law looking at you and unconsciously trying to together. I’ve also been talking to Ingela Conference read your face and you are doing the same with Alger and Jörgen Weibull about testing one the IAST but sometimes you’re just quietly me. It’s fascinating to study how this works and of the theoretical models in the lab. These writing behind your desk or doing theory how it aff ects outcomes. I’m now very tempted projects should develop in the next year, so and math. And you can decide more or less to look at things that biologists or psycholo- I’ll be coming back for sure“. completely what you want to study - that’s gists might fi nd more interesting. For instance, really a gift.” DISTINGUISHED LECTURES we want to look at the role that physical stren- “It was very nice coming here because there gth might play in solving confl icts, even when are already quite a few people working on Van Leeuwen is keen for others to follow we don’t actually fi ght.” facial cues. There’s a lot of people I can talk in his footsteps and get the most out of September 22, to, like Jeanne Bovet who is a biologist the IAST experience. “It’s very easy to get 2016 studying female attractiveness. Arnaud overwhelmed by all the diff erent perspec- Robert Shiller Tognetti has looked at whether you can use tives. It’s nice if you can fi nd some people (Yale University) facial cues to predict if somebody will coo- whose work has some overlap with yours, “The infl uence of perate. In my PhD, I studied facial cues to see and then try to collaborate. It takes some Dominik Duell narrative on fi nancial to a lecturer position November 3, if you can predict whether someone will be time to get to know people, their literature decision making” (tenure track) at the 2016 a tough bargainer. He’s a biologist and I’m and their approach. Then it can move qui- University of Essex, Rebecca Stott an economist but we’re essentially looking ckly. From the beginning, I’ve met so many in the fall of 2016 (East Anglia University) Heidi Colleran at the same things.” nice people. The most important thing is to “Cross-pollinations: talk to them, to seize this opportunity to fi nd to a senior scientist position at the Max Narrative in science Free thinking, fresh air and French cuisine out what they are doing.” Planck Institute for and literature” December 1, are a mouth-watering recipe, admits Van the Science of 2016 Leeuwen. “I will miss the interdisciplina- Human History in Brian Boyd rity at the IAST. It’s been great to experience Jena, from May 2016 (Auckland University) the weather, the food and getting out to the Patrick Le Bihan “The evolution of countryside where it’s quiet and so exciting. to an assistant storytelling” I do so many diff erent things every day. I like WATCH OUR professorship at the need for creativity in designing experi- INTERVIEW the Paris Insitute of ments. You interact with a lot of people at Political Studies www.iast.fr/dl -31000Toulouse desPuits-Creusés 2 rue Université Toulouse 1Capitole CUJAS Amphitheatre LECTURES INENGLISH narrative onfinarrative nancial 2013 NobelPrize in Economics DISTINGUISHED LECTURESINTHESOCIALSCIENCES Robert Shiller Robert decision making The infl uence of September 22 Yale University, NARRATIVE THEME FOR2016: Narrative inscienceNarrative Rebecca Stott Cross-pollinations: Cross-pollinations: TIME: 18:00TO20:00 University ofEast Anglia University and literature November 3 PUBLIC LECTURESOPENTOALL Brian Boyd University ofAucklandUniversity of storytelling The evolution December 1

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